[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010542
SWODY1
SPC AC 010540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
WEST TX INTO SRN NEB...WRN MO...AR...AND NRN LA...

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A
TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z/02.  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT JUST WEST OF SAN...CLEARLY DEFINED
AND LIKELY STRONGER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING.  THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z.

LATE EVENING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND TRENDS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
RECOVERY IS WELL UNDER WAY ACROSS NORTH TX WITH WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTENING CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...JUST SE OF LBB.  IT APPEARS WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO OK LATER THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY. 
EVEN SO...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS RETREAT
ACROSS SRN OK...THEN INTO PORTIONS OF AR/LA LATER IN THE MORNING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES.

OF MORE CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED RAPID MOISTENING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO WRN KS AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE. LATEST
THINKING IS MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS FAR NW AS SWRN
KS...WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK WHERE MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL INITIATE PRIOR
TO 21Z OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY
FAVOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES INDEED
RETURN AS EXPECTED.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.  BY LATE EVENING AN UPWARD
EVOLVING LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL KS/OK TOWARD WRN MO BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL ENHANCE
INSTABILITY/FOCUS FOR LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS ACROSS AR INTO WRN MS.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY AID INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEFORE CONVECTION
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER IN THE EVENING.

...NERN U.S...

A NARROW WEDGE OF MOISTENING/HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS NY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA SUGGEST
200-400 J/KG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  IT APPEARS A FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVOLVE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THEN SURGE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SHEAR AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR WLY MOMENTUM TRANSFER ARE NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT GIVEN
THE WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT.  FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST
LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
CELLS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2006