[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281645
SWODY1
SPC AC 281643

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN...SWRN AND W
CNTRL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES. A DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN TX NEAR FORT
STOCKTON NWD INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FARTHER S...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN TX
FROM NEAR HOUSTON WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE AREA. 

THE WARM FRONT SEPARATES RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70
FROM THE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE
DRYLINE. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT ACROSS W TX IN PROXIMITY
TO MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE FROM NEAR THE BIG BEND NWD INTO NWRN TX ALONG THE MOIST
AXIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS W TX THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK. A MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE NEWD THROUGH
WRN TX ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE NM CUTOFF LOW AND WILL
CONTRITE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN TX AND INTO W CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT DEVELOPS EWD
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
DISCRETE ACTIVITY ON SRN END OF MCS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL TX AND MAINTAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND N OF E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS S CNTRL TX.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM S CNTRL THROUGH N TX
WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME. AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP NWD AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME CLOSER TO SURFACE BASED. LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ENHANCED BY VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS S CNTRL TX...AND WOULD ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME ROOTED NEAR
THE SURFACE.

FARTHER N ACROSS OK AND KS...STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FARTHER S WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF NWD MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE
HAIL.

...NRN PLAINS...

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STORMS DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF UPPER LOW
THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 04/28/2006