[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261944
SWODY1
SPC AC 261942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED APR 26 2006

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN
U.S....

...SERN STATES...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SWD ACROSS
CNTRL NC. FARTHER W A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN TN SWWD THROUGH
NWRN AL AND INTO SERN MS. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES FROM AL EWD
THROUGH GA AND SC AS WELL AS NRN FL. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA
SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE FROM ERN GA INTO SC WHERE
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.
STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE BACK DOOR
FRONT ACROSS SC. VWP DATA SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK WLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWEST 2 KM IN SC. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF 50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON
SERN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
IS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 KT...SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREAT IS VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NARROW ZONE ACROSS CNTRL SC AS STORMS CROSS THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED AND WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE DEEPER
INTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. 

ELSEWHERE...AN MCS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD THROUGH SRN GA WHERE THE
WLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
CONTINUES EWD THROUGH SRN GA...REACHING SRN SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


OTHERWISE...SEVERE THREAT FARTHER W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF AL...NRN
GA AND SERN MS AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS MORE MARGINAL GIVEN MUCH
OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

..DIAL.. 04/26/2006