[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261615
SWODY1
SPC AC 261613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY
INTO KY/TN.  A LARGE AREA OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW /40-50
KNOTS AT 500MB/ IS PRESENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...AND WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS GA/SC BY 00Z AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER SC.  THESE
TRENDS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF AL/GA/SC AND NORTH FL.

...SC...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER UPSTATE SC...WITH FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF MYR.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS
OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE 80S.  AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...ALONG
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS
REGION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  BRIEF TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR
NEAR BOUNDARIES.

...ERN GA/NRN FL...
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD TO
EASTERN GA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN FL AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED /LOWER 80S/ AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE INTO REGION.
 STRONGER CELLS IN THIS REGION WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

...AL...
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO EASTERN
TN.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF AL. IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION COULD OCCUR TO
SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.  CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOW.

..HART/GRAMS.. 04/26/2006