[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261254
SWODY1
SPC AC 261253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM SE MS/LA TO THE
SC/GA/NE FL COAST....

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD
AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NE STATES...AND
WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK WAVE INVOF N GA WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SC
LATER TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES.

...SE STATES TODAY...
THE SURFACE PATTERN IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THE PAST DAY OR SO...WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS NRN AL AND FROM SRN LA TO SW AL.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE UNDISTURBED AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE TO SC
IN ADVANCE OF THE MORNING STORMS...AND IN A BAND FROM ERN MS/CENTRAL
AL AND CENTRAL/N GA THAT HAS NOT BEEN OVERTURNED BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE ONGOING STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE PATH OF
THE SURFACE WAVE...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING.

RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING SOME IN THE WARM SECTOR.  ALSO...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION AND TRAJECTORIES
NO LONGER EMANATING FROM THE EML SOURCE REGION TO THE W. 
STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
 OF 75-85 F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000
J/KG.  WIND PROFILES IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SOME SPEED INCREASE ALOFT...WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH THE WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 04/26/2006