[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260545
SWODY1
SPC AC 260543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
SC...GA...SRN AL AND NRN FL...

...GULF COAST STATES...
AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL DRIFT ESEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY AND
OH VALLEYS TODAY AS A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE EWD ACROSS MS...AL
AND GA. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE MCS
ONGOING ACROSS SRN LA...SRN MS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS SRN AL AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HEATING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED BY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MCS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THIS MAY HELP
TO REINTENSIFY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MCS IN
GA/NRN FL AND FURTHER NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CNTRL AL.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD. WITH MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR SHOULD MAKE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STEEP...THE UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR
OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...CALIFORNIA...
AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD
TODAY. NORTH OF THE UPPER-LOW...ELY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW STORMS THAT INITIATE IN THE
SIERRAS TO DRIFT WWD INTO THE VALLEY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY SHOW
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS. DUE TO WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE HAIL THREAT MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DUE TO
THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 04/26/2006