[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260057
SWODY1
SPC AC 260056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NC...VA AND FAR
WRN TN...

...TX COASTAL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX WHERE AN MCS IS DEVELOPING ATTM. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL JET
PUNCHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THIS IS CREATING
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE
LATEST CRP SOUNDING SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SUPERCELLS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TOWARD A LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE MAY OCCUR. THE
STRONGER SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. AS STORMS MERGE...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME LOCALLY
ENHANCED WITH BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EWD AND INSTABILITY DECREASES.

...MID-MS VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SLOT
MOVING ACROSS WRN MO AND NRN AR. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS ONGOING IN
NERN AR AND WRN TN NEAR A COLD FRONT AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH. A
SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. REGIONAL OOZ
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN TN WHERE
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT STEEPER THAN AREA FURTHER WEST. THE 
SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING...BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

...SRN VA/NC AND FAR WRN TX...
STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN
SC...CNTRL NC INTO SRN VA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 F
RANGE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON THE GSO 00Z
SOUNDING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
ESPECIALLY AT LOW-LEVELS AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 04/26/2006