[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221952
SWODY1
SPC AC 221950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...MID-ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES...
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE ENEWD INTO UPSTATE SC THIS AFTN.  WARM
CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA REGION SWD INTO THE ERN
CAROLINAS. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION AND THE ERN PORTIONS OF NC LATE THIS AFTN. 
SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE BANDS OF TSTMS...
GIVING LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.

UPSTREAM...AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE RECOVERING SOMEWHAT ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT/ALONG AND E OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN CREST.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT MAIN LLJ AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM
THIS REGION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL ACROSS CNTRL NC-SC AND PARTS OF SERN/SCNTRL GA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

...NRN/CNTRL FL...
FARTHER S...STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN FL AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
 VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MULTI-CELL TSTMS WITH BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL SEEM TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MORE QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ALONG THE PECOS RVR VLY INTO SERN NM WHERE
MID-AFTN SFC DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
BENEATH THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE DIURNAL CIRCULATION ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN NM AND SWRN TX MOUNTAINS. 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD EDGE EWD LATER THIS AFTN...PROVIDING A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS CONVECTION TO VENTILATE AND GROW INTO
STORMS.

CONTINUED HEATING ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN THE
CAP TO THE POINT WHERE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND
SURVIVE.  WHITE SANDS PROFILER SHOWS A RATHER DEEP SLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WITH VERTICAL SHEAR OF AROUND 35-40 KTS. 
TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH PERHAPS BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LATE THIS AFTN WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.  ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND
MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH ERN NM AND WRN TX THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

...CNTRL GRTLKS...
COOLING ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE GRTLKS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SUPPORTING DEEPENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS APT TO DEVELOP FARTHER SW WITHIN LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE ACROSS SRN MI INTO NRN IND AS A 70 KT JET STREAK NOSES SEWD
LATER THIS AFTN.  HERE...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL CA VLYS...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL CA...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.  POCKETS OF HEATING WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE AIR MASS...LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SIERRAS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF KS/MO AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO REGION.  INFLUX OF RELATIVELY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..RACY.. 04/22/2006