[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221700
SWODY1
SPC AC 221628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
GA/FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MI INTO NORTHWEST OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND
EASTERN NM...

...CAROLINAS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
OVER GA MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SC/NC BORDER...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO VA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND WEAK DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG.  RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD
AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

...GA/FL...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE.  THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM THIS REGION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. 
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO MAXIMIZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WET MICROBURSTS AND
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. REFER TO RECENT MCD NUMBER 615 FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

...EASTERN NM/WEST TX...
CURRENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH...WITH LEE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SUPPORT A NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 50S F DEWPOINTS AND A
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- REF 12Z DEL RIO TX RAOB -- ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN NM PLAINS INTO
FAR WEST TX/HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TX...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TX AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/
AND VERTICAL SHEAR /25-30 KTS/ WILL FAVOR BOTH ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING
MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH AND ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S WITH A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TX.

...MI/OH...
UPPER LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY FROM WI
INTO LOWER MI. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHWEST OH...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT.  MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION...CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGION.

...CENTRAL CA...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL CA TODAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.  POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS...LEADING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRAS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...KS/MO OVERNIGHT...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
KS/MO LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO REGION.  INFLUX
OF RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 06Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..HART/GUYER.. 04/22/2006