[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 220107
SWODY1
SPC AC 220105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN GULF COAST TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS...

...FL PANHANDLE TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN ACCELERATING MID LEVEL WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE...DEVELOP ENEWD INTO MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FROM THE NERN GULF COAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LARGE MCS
PRECEEDING THE UPPER WAVE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN AL AND ERN
TN WITH SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN REGION. LATEST ATLANTA AREA SOUNDING WAS
INDICATING MARGINAL...BUT ADEQUATE...INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FROM ERN
AL ACROSS GA AND INTO PARTS OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. EXPECT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...TRAILING PORTION PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
OVER SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL APPEARS TO HAVE OUTRUN STRONGER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...A
COUPLE OF STOUT STORMS PERSIST ALONG THIS FEATURE NEAR MOBILE BAY
ATTM. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL STORM
FORMATION REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL FLOW MOVE EAST INTO INSTABILITY AXIS LATER TONIGHT.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INDICATED IN BOTH SIL AND TLH RAOBS WOULD
APPEAR TO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SUFFICIENT
FORCING NEAR THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...NERN FL TO ERN SC...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM ERN FL/SERN GA
SEABREEZE NWD TO PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER NWRN SC. GIVEN
APPROACH OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ADEQUATE
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...ISOLATED TO 
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE BEFORE
ADDITIONAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS SOME OF
THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...CNTRL CA...
WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH MODEST TO STRONG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...HAS AIDED STORM
INITIATION ALONG THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NRN SIERRA. STRONGEST CELLS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL OR PERHAPS A LOCALIZED NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INABILITY WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET.

..CARBIN.. 04/22/2006