[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211634
SWODY1
SPC AC 211632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE GULF COAST REGION...

...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY...
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...WITH SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING EASTWARD FROM TX INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION.  ONE SUCH FEATURE IS NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX...AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE MCS ACROSS LA.  THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS
OF WEAKENING THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
EAST WILL ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS/AL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S...AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE A RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TN AND NORTHERN/WESTERN GA OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING.

...CA...
NEXT LARGE TROUGH IS ROTATING INTO CA TODAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MAIN VORT MAX OFFSHORE...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNSET.

...FL...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING TODAY OVER THE FL
PENINSULA...WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.  SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/GUYER.. 04/21/2006