[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 162001
SWODY1
SPC AC 161959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IL...IND AND WRN
KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAINS...

...UPPER MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CURRENTLY
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A LINE OF INTENSE STORMS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL BE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE
SWD ACROSS ERN IL AS INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE CONTINUES.
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS IND ALONG
THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F
COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MAKE THE STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL
LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND VERY HIGH WINDS. AS THE
UPPER-TROUGH CONTINUES ESEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD EXPAND ESEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ENHANCED AS A LARGE MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES
ESEWD ACROSS THE SERN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS AND THE MCS APPROACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE
APPALACHIANS AND UNDER THE RIDGE WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK. EVEN SO...INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WILL BE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM ERN KY ACROSS SRN WV INTO CNTRL
AND ERN NC. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 04/16/2006