[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160105
SWODY1
SPC AC 160104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY
EWD TO IL/WRN IND...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
NEB/NRN KS...AND WITHIN CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
STOP DEEPENING TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS MORE ELY...REACHING IA/NRN MO BY
12Z SUNDAY.  ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A WEAKENING
PROCESS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOB 990 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
EWD INTO IA.  SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED ESEWD FROM CENTRAL NEB LOW
ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS TO SRN VA.  WRN EXTENT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT REACHING SRN IA AND CENTRAL IL/IND BY END
OF PERIOD...WHILE KY PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  ERN EXTENT
ACROSS VA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO NC
OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...DRY LINE TRAILED SSWWD FROM SERN NEB THROUGH
ERN KS/CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO SW TX. PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE NEB/KS/NRN OK PORTION OF DRY LINE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT REACHING NWRN MO TO NWRN TX BY
SUNDAY MORNING.  

...ERN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW AND WITHIN EXIT
REGION OF 60-70 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS TO OH VALLEY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ENEWD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO
WRN/CENTRAL IL.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS EAST OF SURFACE LOW AND
ALONG THE WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ACROSS MO
INTO CENTRAL IL WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT FROM NERN KS
TO SWRN IA EWD TO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL LATE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL...WITH THESE THREATS
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING AS FAR N AND E AS SERN SD AND CENTRAL/SRN
IND...RESPECTIVELY.  UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONGOING STORMS ALONG
MID/LOWER MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED WITH ONE OR TWO MCS/S MOVING ENEWD
AND REACHING SERN MN/SRN WI TO SWRN OH/KY BY 12Z SUNDAY.

INSTABILITY...AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG DRY LINE/COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN
KS/WRN MO TO NERN OK AS LOSS OF INSOLATION STABILIZES BOUNDARY
LAYER.

...OH VALLEY REGION TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IND TO
WV/SWRN VA COMBINED WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 04/16/2006