[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150107
SWODY1
SPC AC 150106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS INDIANA...SWRN
OH...N-CENTRAL/NERN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL IL TO
WRN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SRN CA ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH REMANDER
PERIOD.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT FROM SWRN LM SWWD ACROSS
NWRN MO...S-CENTRAL KS...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WSWWD ACROSS NWRN
OK INTO WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL PORTION OK PANHANDLE.  OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS EVIDENT FROM NERN IL
SEWD NEAR A LINE FROM 35 NE CMI...IND...20 W CVG...45 NNE JKL...CRW.
 OVERALL THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE SHUNTED SWD LOCALLY BY INDIVIDUAL TSTM
OUTFLOWS.

...IL TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
SEVERAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO BOTH SHEAR AND BUOYANCY.  ANOTHER CLUSTER
OF MOSTLY HAIL PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NRN WV AND SWRN PA SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD TOWARD NRN/WRN VA...SEVERE POTENTIAL GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY MORE DRY/STABLE INFLOW
LAYER.

REF WWS 184-188 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
DETAILS OVER THIS REGION.

OVERALL...MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SEVERE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND JUST
N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN CENTRAL/NERN IL AND SWRN OH/NERN KY. 
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIFTED PARCELS WILL
REMAIN SFC-BASED OR NEARLY SO INVOF BOUNDARY...WHICH ALSO IS
ORIENTED FAVORABLY FOR RIGHTWARD MOTION OFF HODOGRAPH. EXPECT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED SFC DEW POINTS -- LOW-MID 60S F
RESULTING FROM EARLIER RAINFALL...AND LOWER LCL ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY.  LCL ALSO SHOULD DROP ALONG AND JUST S OF BOUNDARY IN
RELATION TO SFC DIABATIC COOLING THROUGH EVENING HOURS...WHILE THOSE
PARCELS REMAIN NEARLY SFC-BASED AS WELL.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN E OF WEAK MESOLOW -- ANALYZED ON SFC CHARTS OVER EXTREME
E-CENTRAL IL AND NWRN INDIANA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  PRECEDING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS AND RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW N OF BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
0-1 AND 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLY ENLARGED...WITH SRH AS HIGH
AS 400-600 J/KG THROUGH THOSE LAYERS.  60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEARS
ALSO SILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL S...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
EVENTUAL BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT.

SOMETIME AROUND 15/06Z...EXPECT PROGRESSIVELY MORE DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER...SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PRIMARY INFLOW LAYER AND RELATED
INCREASE IN LLJ TO SUPPORT ONE OR MORE MCS BETWEEN INDIANA AND SRN
WV.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
SUBSEQUENT LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2006