[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121230
SWODY1
SPC AC 121228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT WED APR 12 2006

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI AND OH....

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
WI/IL. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY.  MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
SURFACE LOW OVER UPPER MI...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS WI...CENTRAL IL...AND CENTRAL MO.  MULTIPLE BANDS OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ARE NOTED AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF MI/IND/OH TO HEAT SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH THE DAY.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THIS REGION WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI...EASTERN
IND...AND WESTERN OH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
OH AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN PA/NORTHWESTERN WV BY EARLY EVENING. 
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOW VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ALOFT...COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT
LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  THIS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS OVER
PA/WV.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 04/12/2006