[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111946
SWODY1
SPC AC 111944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-MO VLY EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY...
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SURGE NWD THROUGH THE MID-MO VLY THIS AFTN. 
BENEATH THIS DRY SLOT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT WITH
MID-UPPER 40S SFC DEW POINTS COMMON ACROSS NRN KS AND CNTRL
NEB...LIMITING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH.

SFC LOW OVER ECNTRL NEB SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO MN THIS EVENING IN
TANDEM WITH THE UPPER WAVE.  STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ACROSS WRN NEB WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MO RVR LATE
THIS AFTN AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY CATCHING
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. 

GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CAPPING...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT/FRONTOGENESIS.  THIS
SCENARIO ALREADY APPEARS TO BE PLAYING OUT ACROSS CNTRL NEB WHERE
VSBL SATL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH VIRGA BEING REPORTED VCNTY
KLBF.  TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO GROW STRONGER WHEN THEY APPROACH THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-MO VLY LATER THIS AFTN WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER /MLCAPES 250 J PER KG/
AND CINH WEAKER. BUT...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH-BASED ...WITH A
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC PROFILE TO CLOUD BASE BEFORE THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT UNDERCUTS THE STORMS.  THUS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 04/11/2006