[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111618
SWODY1
SPC AC 111617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT ENEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING.  ACCOMPANYING 50-60 KT WSWLY MID
LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF KS AND NOSE ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.  THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION.  MORNING ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SFC DEW POINTS AOB
50F FROM FAR NRN OK NNEWD INTO ERN KS/SERN NEB...WITH 55+F DEW
POINTS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.  12Z MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SFC DEW POINT
FORECASTS.  THE RUC DEEPLY MIXES/DRIES THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
SUB-40F DEW POINTS LATER TODAY WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS SURFACE DEW
POINTS 10 DEGREES HIGHER.  RESULTANT FORECAST MLCAPE VARIES FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. ATTM...EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS AROUND
50F AND MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND EXPECTED CAPPING...INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG NOSE OF STRONGEST ASCENT NEAR THE
KS/NEB BORDER. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN SPREAD ENEWD AND POSSIBLY
BUILD SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. 
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG...DESPITE THE
HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND SUPPORT STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES/SUPERCELLS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 04/11/2006