[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111217
SWODY1
SPC AC 111215

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
NEB...KS...IA...AND MO....

...MO VALLEY...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN ON MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CO
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS
AFTERNOON.  SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM
SOUTHWEST NEB ACROSS IA...WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHWARD INTO KS
THIS EVENING.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR OF
LOW WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AHEAD OF LOW...WHERE DEEP-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP.  AFTERNOON MAX MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
1000 J/KG...WITH STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN ON MORNING SOUNDINGS
LIMITING CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY.  LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NEB/KS/IA/MO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
ELIMINATING THE CAP AND ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR SURFACE LOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
HIGH-BASED AND ISOLATED DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND CAPPING
EFFECTS.  ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN NEB/NERN KS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MO AND MUCH OF IA DURING THE EVENING...WITH A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND AFTER DARK.

..HART.. 04/11/2006