[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081623
SWODY1
SPC AC 081621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SERN STATES...

VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH FROM OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE EWD REACHING ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT FROM
DELMARVA SWWD THRU ERN TN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE SERN LA WILL BE
TRAILING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA INTO GULF BY LATER
TONIGHT.  PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT  WITH A WELL
DEFINED BOUNDARY TRAILING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO SRN AL. WARM
SECTOR TO S AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE EWD
INTO SRN SC.

WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60-70 KT
ALONG WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT WHICH SUPPORTS ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MLCAPES TO 2000 J/K AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND
AS OF 16Z MINIMAL REMAINING CIN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON EWD
ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INTO COASTAL SC.  SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH
THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THE ENHANCE SHEAR
ALONG THE E/W BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS GA JUST S OF MCN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM CURRENT LOCATION CENTRAL GA TO SRN
AL E AND NEWD DURING AFTERNOON INTO SRN SC AND THRU THE FL PANHANDLE

AS HEATING CONTINUES.  THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS
WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.

FURTHER N THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL NC/SERN VA SHOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THREAT
OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL AREAS WITH
THE STRONG PREDOMINANTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FAVORING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS

..HALES/GRAMS.. 04/08/2006