[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 072014
SWODY1
SPC AC 072013

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL AND
TN...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MS...AL...TN...GA...LA...KY...IL...IND...OH...VA AND NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS
VALLEY...GULF COAST...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SRN OH VALLEY. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...IN ADDITION
TO THE DAMAGING STORMS ACROSS TN AND KY...NUMEROUS TORNADIC STORMS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL INITIATE NEAR
THE MS RIVER AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING ENEWD
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION. THE JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS KY AND TN WHERE NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS ARE
ONGOING IN THE NOSE OF THE APPROACHING JET. SFC AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A LARGE VOLATILE WARM SECTOR WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER A
LARGE AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE LARGE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW IDEAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION
TO TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THE FIRST ROUND OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS
WITH A SECOND ROUND OF VERY INTENSE STORMS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

1930Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD
OVER NRN LA...SERN AR AND NW MS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION SHOULD
TAKE PLACE JUST AHEAD OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO THE
AREA. AS THE JET PUNCHES EWD ACROSS NRN MS AND NRN AL...SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. AN OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. AS THE STORMS TRACK
ENEWD...SEVERAL LONG-LIVED VIOLENT TORNADOES NOW APPEAR INCREASINGLY
LIKELY AS A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDS NWD INTO THE TORNADIC STORMS
ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AS INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MOVE
ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN TN...NRN AL AND POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST
AS NWRN GA.

BY THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS A
LARGE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL OUTSIDE
THE HIGH RISK AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
EXIST OVER SRN IL AND SRN IND WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST AS
SUPERCELLS INITIATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
LA AND CNTRL MS. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING AS STORMS TRACK EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
AND SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
MAY DECREASE SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY...ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

...ERN APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS/ERN SEABOARD.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND WRN
CAROLINAS...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 04/07/2006