[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070050
SWODY1
SPC AC 070048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
SE KS/NE OK/NW AR...AND SW MO....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS  PARTS
OF EXTREME SE SD/ERN NEB AND WRN IA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT AND HIGH
RISK AREAS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE E CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY....

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BUT WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
AS STRONG IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND ITS SOUTHEASTERN INTO
EASTERN PERIPHERY.  STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL SURGE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
OCCLUDED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.

STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY
WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT ANOTHER FEW HOURS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. 
HOWEVER...EXTENT OF THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WHERE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION IMPEDED LOW-LEVEL WARMING TODAY.

...MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY*...
STRONG SHEAR/FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 90-100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK
WILL SPREAD FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/WESTERN IOWA THROUGH 02-03Z.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST AS
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INGEST MORE MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.  TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED
INTO WESTERN IOWA ON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE.  EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT IN STRONGER
CELLS WITHIN DEVELOPING LINE.  OTHERWISE... RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
COULD STILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ...BEFORE FORCING PIVOTS
THROUGH REMAINDER OF INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS EVENING.

...OZARK PLATEAU*...
SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
PERSIST NEAR MID-LEVEL JET CORE...WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A FAVORABLE
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...WILL CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES
THROUGH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH CAPE TO 2000
J/KG NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS. 
DEEPER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI/NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ABOVE MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER 03-04Z.

*FOR MORE SPECIFIC AND UPDATED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR
IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE KEEP WATCH FOR LATEST SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 04/07/2006