[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051937
SWODY1
SPC AC 051935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED APR 05 2006

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES
INTO PARTS OF NEB AND SD...

...CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES MOUNTAIN AREA...

SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NWD WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD MOVING VORT MAX. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
ONLY IN THE 30S...BUT COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE
HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 60S AND 70S RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED AS LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING THROUGH ERN UT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ROTATION IN SOME STORMS. THIS AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL.


...NRN PLAINS...

WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT
AS LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE MUCAPE. WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED STORMS...PRIMARILY N OF THE WARM FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...SRN CA...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS.


...WRN AND SWRN TX...

STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING ON WRN EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF WRN AND SWRN TX. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL. HIGH BASED
NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..DIAL.. 04/05/2006