[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050549
SWODY1
SPC AC 050547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT WED APR 05 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 150M IN 12HR...BEFORE UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO
ERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO PORTIONS OF MO AND AR.  WELL NW OF THIS
ACTIVITY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRONG DYNAMIC FRONT
FROM WY...ARCING SWD INTO NWRN AZ.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD
WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WHERE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A
RECOVERING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AFTER
DARK.

LATEST THINKING IS UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  HOWEVER...LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EJECT NEWD ACROSS WY INTO WRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED BUT
OBTAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH WITHIN MODEST CAPE ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL
PRODUCTION AND POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS.  ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

...WEST TX...

DRY LINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE FOCUSED AS IT MIXES EAST ACROSS WEST
TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 90 F WHICH WILL CREATE NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALONG WRN EDGE OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING.  IF SO...GUSTY WINDS OR SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS.  LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN QUICK
DEMISE OF ANY UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 04/05/2006