[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050050
SWODY1
SPC AC 050049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2006

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CA...

...CA/GREAT BASIN...

LARGE SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHES SRN CA/NRN BAJA
PENINSULA.  THIS HAS AIDED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL CA...NEWD INTO NV WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING IS STRONGER AND DEEP CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED. 
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY
ACTUALLY BE INLAND FROM CNTRL NV INTO SCNTRL ID...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION.

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL HOWEVER REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. 
EXIT REGION OF STRONG SPEED MAX WILL AID ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION
WHERE SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THE
MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR WIDESPREAD ROBUST CONVECTION IS THE ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY.  EVEN SO STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.

...SRN PLAINS...

SWLY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS WEST TX INTO THE SRN PLAINS IS SERVING TO
MOISTEN THE 750-800MB LAYER ACROSS CNTRL OK THIS EVENING.  00Z
SOUNDING FROM OUN SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE THAT MANY
HOURS OFF AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 04/05/2006