[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011634
SWODY1
SPC AC 011632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS WRN OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND SW KS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX NWD TO SE NEB
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO SW AR THIS
AFTERNOON....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
TIDEWATER AREA....

...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NWD ACROSS OK/KS/NW TX...IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
ERN CO/WRN KS IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
EWD/ENEWD OVER WRN NM/CO THIS MORNING. S OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND 00-12Z CHANGES
IN OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
MINIMIZED E OF THE DRYLINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THAT STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY BY ABOUT 22Z
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE EWD/NEWD
INTO SW KS AND WRN OK DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS KS INTO NRN
OK.

SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TODAY BENEATH 8 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON E OF THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE AND S OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG APPEAR LIKELY.  THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 21-03Z WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO W/NW OK THIS
EVENING.  THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS CONVECTION MERGES AND GROWS UPSCALE INTO MORE
OF A LINE/MCS ACROSS OK/KS BY EARLY TONIGHT.

...SE VA AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE SOUNDING PROFILES
WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000
J/KG.  ADDITIONALLY...40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 04/01/2006