[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010045
SWODY1
SPC AC 010044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN AND
NRN MS/AL...

...OH VALLEY...

WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE HAS FINALLY EMERGED FROM SERN LOWER
MI...SWWD INTO SRN IND...AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS WRN OH WITH AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 
IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL OH...STRONG
CAP AND MEAGER CAPE ON ILN 00Z SOUNDING...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
AID EWD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE BUT OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER CNTRL OH LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE ABSENCE OF HEATING.

...MIDDLE TN/NCNTRL GULF COAST...

BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF AR...EWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO
CNTRL AL.  AS DEEP LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS THIS EVENING...IT
APPEARS CONVECTION WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER NRN AL/SRN TN INTO
NWRN PORTIONS OF GA.  SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR MAINTAINING UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...THUS A FEW STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.

...NORTH TX/SRN OK...

STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD ACROSS TX THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ENHANCE ASCENT ATOP BOUNDARY
LAYER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DISPLAY SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A STRONG LLJ/FORCING.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2006