[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151945
SWODY1
SPC AC 151944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
0244 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
SPS 40 SSE PGO 45 ESE PGO 40 W UOX 20 ENE DYR 45 WSW LOZ 10 NW RMG
40 W JAN 45 SE GGG 10 N TPL 45 SSW BWD 10 SW SJT 35 W ABI 35 SSE
SPS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD
...CONT... 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 35 NW INK 50 NNW HOB 55 SSE CVS 55
ESE LBB 15 NW FSI 35 NW PGO 40 WSW ARG 10 NW SLO 15 ENE AZO 65 SE
OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS
30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BRL 25 W UIN
55 SSW IRK 35 NNE MKC 40 WSW LWD 35 SW OTM 10 WNW BRL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY...

...NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY....
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF
CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY
E/NE TODAY.  SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH
MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX
ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN.
  
THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W
TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE
WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. 
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF
TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS.  THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS.
  
...CNTRL/NE TX...
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM
FOR CNTRL/NE TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. 
NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE.  A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT
ACROSS THE STATE.  BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
  
MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...
COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.  CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR
ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL/NE TX
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
  
...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP
SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM
FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR... SUGGEST
THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN
SOME STORMS.
  
...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST...
PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST
SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST 
TODAY.

..AFWA.. 09/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.