[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151725
SWODY1
SPC AC 151657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ELP 35 SE ROW 45
E TCC 45 NNE EHA 20 NE IML 15 NE MHN 15 ESE MBG 35 W BIS 25 SSE SDY
15 NNE BIL 20 WNW MQM 20 SE BOI 80 NNW WMC 45 S 4LW 10 E MHS 35 SSE
MFR 55 N LMT 60 SE RDM 40 WSW BKE 30 SW LWS 25 E PUW 35 NNE 3TH 25 S
CTB 25 WSW HVR 40 WNW GGW 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 90 NW CMX 30 SSE BRD
30 NNW SUX 20 N MHK 30 SE ICT 25 ESE END 20 SSW OKC 30 SW ADM 35 SW
PRX 30 NW ELD 40 WSW UOX 25 SSE CKV 30 NNE EVV 15 SSW IND 40 NE DAY
40 W CLE 25 WSW BUF 35 WNW SYR 20 W POU 20 SSE PVD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO 
AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY
1 PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO THE OH VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. RESULTANT
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO WRN NY/PA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND BE LOCATED
FROM PA TO THE NCNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATOP DRIER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL
U.S. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
  
...UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...
LATEST GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SPEED OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF
DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED TO THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO
LATEST GFS WHICH INDICATES A MORE NWD TRACK AND SLIGHTLY FASTER
PROGRESSION TO THE IMPULSE. THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE BEST GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOCATION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. 
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS INVOF THE
LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE FROM OH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  

A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH FORCING NEAR FRONT AND LOW...SHOULD
RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRONGER CELLS/LINES AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PARTICULARLY IF POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT.
  
PRESENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS FORECAST SCENARIO
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
  
...SRN APPALACHIANS TO NRN GULF COAST/NERN TX...
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS
TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENTLY IN LATEST GUIDANCE COMPARED
TO TROUGH/LOW FARTHER NORTH. MIXING AND LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SHOULD LEAD
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM NC SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE A
FEW MULTICELLULAR OR PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS.
 ANY THREAT SHOULD DECLINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN
AFTER DARK.
  
...CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS...
LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS MID LEVEL WLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO HIGH PLAINS. IN
TURN...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE TX PNHDL TO THE
DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR STORM INITIATION CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK.
HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD AHEAD OF
THE LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COULD ENHANCE LIFT
AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM
INITIATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE NEAR LEE
TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM ND TO MN. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ACROSS
THE REGION PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITY IN THIS OUTLOOK.

..AFWA.. 09/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.