[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140613
SWODY1
SPC AC 140612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
SPS 50 N ABI 65 NW ABI 45 ESE LBB 35 E PVW 40 NW CDS 40 W CSM 30 NNE
CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 35 WSW
DUA 40 S SPS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
PRX 30 SSW ABI 25 SSE BGS 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 SE DHT
50 SSW LBL 45 NNE GAG 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25
N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUL 30 E EKN 25
WNW HSS RMG TCL 30 NW JAN 40 E SHV 20 NNE TYR 30 SSE SEP 50 SSW BWD
DRT ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 35 N MRF 30 S HOB 45 S CVS 10 SE LVS 50 E
DRO 30 NE CEZ 25 SE CNY 25 WNW GJT 35 WNW CAG 45 NNE LAR 40 ESE CDR
25 NNE MHN 30 ESE MHN 20 S LBF 35 SSE MCK HLC RSL 20 W EMP 30 SW SZL
35 SE UIN 15 NNW BMI 20 WNW MKG 35 ENE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE
ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE
ORF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED TO FLIP ARROW ON 5 % LINE ON THE WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITY
GRAPHICS

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW
OVER SRN CA. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE SW DESERTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS CREATING A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH OK AND
NRN AR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...OK AND NRN
AR DURING THE DAY POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVER OK AND AR SHOULD
DRIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SFC HEATING OVER NW TX AND WRN OK.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY
MID-DAY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION
ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORMS
SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND ACROSS NRN TX DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A
STRONGLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES VARYING FROM 40
KT OVER ERN OK TO 65 KT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED
SFC WINDS WILL CREATE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL OK WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED AND
SUPERCELLS MODIFY THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED.

THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...AR OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH
THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DECREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT
TO BECOME MARGINAL.

...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS KY AND WRN TN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AND THIS SHOULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN
WRN TN...NRN MS AND NW AL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 60S F. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 30 TO 35 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE MULTICELLS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.

...ERN NC...
THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE
NNEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC TODAY. RAINBAND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NC ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED ROTATING
STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NC TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOW
SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-1
KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT. THE THREAT MAY BECOME MARGINAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE HURRICANE RAINBANDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NC.

..BROYLES.. 09/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.