From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 04:23:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 23:23:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509010541.j815fBev018943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010538 SWODY1 SPC AC 010537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 WNW PHX 30 SSE FLG 15 W CEZ 30 ENE EGE 25 S CYS SNY 15 NNE IML 35 E HLC 15 ENE HUT 25 WSW CNU 50 NW SGF 15 ENE SPI 30 NNW IND 45 ESE BMG 25 NW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 60 SSE DRT 50 ESE JCT 20 S TPL 50 W LFK 20 WNW ESF 45 ESE LUL 50 NNW AYS 25 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25 S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BHB 30 NE BGR HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF ABOUT 40N WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REAPPEARS ACROSS THE SRN CONUS ON THURSDAY. IN THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE UPR MS VLY AREA EWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VLY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WI TO WRN NY DURING THE PERIOD. FARTHER WEST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO BC CANADA WILL CAUSE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPR RIDGE WILL MOVE WITHIN A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LWR CO RIVER VLY TO THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES AREA DURING THE DAY. ...UPR RIO GRANDE VLY/NM...W TX AREAS... MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEST SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN NM MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL/WIND. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EAST INTO LWR TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS FROM ERN NM ACROSS PARTS OF W TX. ..CARBIN/BANACOS.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 11:19:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 06:19:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509011237.j81Cb1wB030938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011234 SWODY1 SPC AC 011232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 WNW PHX 30 SSE FLG 15 W CEZ 30 ENE EGE 25 S CYS SNY 10 ENE IML 50 SSW EAR 25 NW FNB 15 SSW STJ 20 NE CNU 50 NW SGF 15 ENE SPI 30 NNW IND 45 ESE BMG 25 NW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 60 SSE DRT 50 ESE JCT 20 S TPL 50 W LFK 20 WNW ESF 45 ESE LUL 50 NNW AYS 25 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25 S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND STALLING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... WITH SURFACE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION...WEAK UPSLOPE ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES TODAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION AS AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH WILL CARRY THREATS OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. AOB 20 KT/ AND LIMIT PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS ALONG NOSE OF MODEST SLY LLJ. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 15:14:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 10:14:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509011631.j81GVfSJ028274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011629 SWODY1 SPC AC 011627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25 S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 65 E BLH 20 NE IGM 55 WNW GCN 30 SSE PGA 25 NNW CEZ 20 W 4FC 25 ESE CYS 10 E BFF 60 W VTN 15 N ANW 20 NW OFK 45 NNE FNB 30 SSW IRK 40 SSE SPI 20 NW IND 50 ESE BMG 40 NNE BWG 20 WSW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DRT 45 E JCT 60 WNW LFK 35 NW ESF 15 S LUL 50 NNW PNS 40 WSW ABY 50 NNW AYS 40 SW CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A QUIET CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE PROFILES IN THE WAKE OF THE KATRINA REMNANTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GULF COAST ALONG AND S OF A WEAK E-W SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS AREA. VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM AZ AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY TO NEB TONIGHT...THOUGH THE THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ...ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON... ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS DEVELOPING...WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED INITIALLY TO ERN NM. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. ...AZ THIS AFTERNOON... 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TUS AND PHOENIX...MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F...REVEAL MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. CENTRAL AND ERN AZ IS WITHIN A LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS. ...N/NW KS INTO NEB TONIGHT... A SERIES OF WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM A LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/WAA NWD FROM WRN KS TO NEB BY TONIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /BASED NEAR 700 MB/ MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM N CENTRAL/NW KS INTO CENTRAL/WRN NEB...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...ERN KS TO CENTRAL MO TODAY... ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO WRN/CENTRAL MO TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM NRN KS...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 18:48:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 13:48:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509012006.j81K6Dh8019178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012003 SWODY1 SPC AC 012002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DRT 45 E JCT 60 WNW LFK 35 NW ESF 15 S LUL 50 NNW PNS 40 WSW ABY 50 NNW AYS 40 SW CHS ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM 55 ENE BLH 20 NE IGM 55 WNW GCN 30 SSE PGA 25 NNW CEZ 20 W 4FC 45 ENE DGW 25 W RAP 50 NW VTN 15 N ANW 20 NW OFK 45 NNE FNB 30 SSW IRK 40 SSE SPI 20 NW IND 50 ESE BMG 40 NNE BWG 20 WSW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25 S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD THRU SOUTHERN OH INTO CENTRAL MO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD THRU NERN ND/NWRN MN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING AND HAVE LEFT A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN KS ALONG THE OK BORDER INTO W CENTRAL KS. WEAK MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE IS MOVING NWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... TRAJECTORIES ARE CARRYING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ENEWD ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE 850 MB BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER NWRN OK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. LATER THIS EVENING...NEW NAM MODEL SHOWS 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE KS HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO ENHANCE MORE ELEVATED-TYPE CONVECTION INTO NWRN AND N CENTRAL KS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SWRN U.S. ACROSS PARTS OF AZ INTO NM... WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN PLATEAU AREAS WHERE THERE IS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURES INDICATING STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9.5C/KM. THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT IN MANY CASES THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE TO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 23:41:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 18:41:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509020059.j820xDkN023938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020057 SWODY1 SPC AC 020055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z 55 SW TUS 45 SE EED 25 NW LAS 45 NE DRA 15 NNW P38 30 ESE U17 15 W ALS 35 N COS 60 WNW CDR 20 WSW RAP 15 NNE VTN 30 N BUB 35 WNW OMA 20 W P35 40 ENE COU 20 S UNO 50 NW FYV 30 S END 15 NW PVW 25 SE ROW 45 SE ELP 30 S LRD 35 WNW NIR 45 W HOU 10 NE GLS 45 S 7R4 40 SSW BVE 75 SSW PFN 45 WSW CTY 15 SSW PIE 15 ESE SRQ 20 E VRB 25 ENE DAB 85 ESE SSI 125 SE CHS 175 SE CRE 35 SW FHU 35 NNW TCS 10 SE RTN 30 NNE EHA 15 NE DDC 35 W P28 30 SW GAG 30 SSW AMA 25 W ROW 45 SE DMN 15 NNW HUT 30 WSW RSL 30 S IML 25 SSE AIA 45 SSW ANW 10 S LNK STJ 10 SSW SZL 30 NNW SGF 20 NNE CNU 15 NNW HUT. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A COUPLE MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE ACCUMULATED A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL TO BEGIN PROPAGATING SEWD INTO ECNTRL NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND MAY FEED THE TSTMS WITH MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...CNTRL PLAINS... RECENT SATL AND RADAR SHOW THAT TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP N OF THE SWRN KS TSTM CLUSTER. THIS TREND OF INCREASING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. FAVORED ZONE FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/N OF H85 FRONT FROM WRN NEB SEWD INTO WRN MO. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST 30-40 KTS OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION AND ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB. ..RACY.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 23:48:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 18:48:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509020106.j82166f1026844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020103 SWODY1 SPC AC 020101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 55 NE BLH 20 NNE EED 20 WNW LAS 50 NE DRA 15 NNW P38 25 W BCE 25 SSE 4BL ALS 30 N COS 60 ENE DGW 25 W RAP 50 NW VTN 35 ESE ANW 20 SSW OFK 45 NE FNB 30 SSW IRK 35 ENE COU 20 S UNO 50 SW JLN 35 S PNC 55 N CDS 35 SE CVS 30 NW CNM 45 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S LRD 30 NW NIR 45 W HOU 15 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10 SE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A COUPLE MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE ACCUMULATED A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL TO BEGIN PROPAGATING SEWD INTO ECNTRL NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND MAY FEED THE TSTMS WITH MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...CNTRL PLAINS... RECENT SATL AND RADAR SHOW THAT TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP N OF THE SWRN KS TSTM CLUSTER. THIS TREND OF INCREASING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. FAVORED ZONE FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/N OF H85 FRONT FROM WRN NEB SEWD INTO WRN MO. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST 30-40 KTS OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION AND ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB. ..RACY.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 04:20:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 23:20:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509020537.j825bclY021626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020535 SWODY1 SPC AC 020533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE P07 40 N ABI 50 N FTW 30 E DAL 40 ESE SHV 30 NE LFT 25 NNW BVE ...CONT... 35 S TLH 20 W VLD 35 NNE AYS 30 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HUL 35 N AUG 25 WNW MWN 15 NE SLK 40 NE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CTB 60 NE MSO 20 SW 3DU 35 WSW BTM 20 NNE 27U 50 NW 27U 55 S S06 25 W S06 35 SW 63S 20 SW 4OM 50 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH 20 SSW SGU 45 SE U24 40 ESE VEL 10 NNW DEN 30 NW AKO 25 S RAP 30 S DIK 45 NW P24 40 NE MOT 20 W STC 25 N MCW 30 ENE P35 20 NE SZL JBR 30 WSW MSL TCL 35 E MEI 25 N JAN 40 WSW GLH 20 ESE MLC 50 WSW TUL 45 ESE P28 50 NNW P28 45 SE DDC 25 ESE GAG 20 WNW CDS 20 NE LBB 15 E CNM 35 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS... AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE-TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW EXPECTED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRI BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS FRI AFTN. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...RISING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE VCNTY BLACK HILLS AND ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH. THUS...HEATING WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED TSTMS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN/EVE FROM WRN/SRN SD SWD INTO WRN NEB. GIVEN A STORM... MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBS. LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBS/CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/SRN SD. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE ERN DAKS AND SWRN MN. THESE TSTMS WILL BE TIED TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG NOSE OF NOCTURNAL SWLY LLJ. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER S...A WEAK COLD FRONT /PSBLY AUGMENTED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY/ WILL BACKDOOR INTO ERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. AN UNSTABLE PLAINS AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE W OF THIS FRONT FRI AFTN. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THIS REGION MAY AID IN A FEW TSTMS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRIMARILY SUPPORT MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL... MAINLY OVER ERN KS/SWRN MO. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 11:21:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 06:21:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509021238.j82CcrGE007293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021236 SWODY1 SPC AC 021235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH 20 SSW SGU 45 SE U24 40 ESE VEL 10 NNW DEN 30 NW AKO 25 S RAP 30 S DIK 45 NW P24 40 NE MOT 20 W STC 25 N MCW 35 SSE OTM 25 SSW JEF 35 W ARG 30 WSW MSL TCL 35 E MEI 25 N JAN 40 WSW GLH 20 ESE MLC 50 WSW TUL 45 ESE P28 50 NNW P28 45 SE DDC 25 ESE GAG 20 WNW CDS 20 NE LBB 15 E CNM 35 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HUL 35 N AUG 25 WNW MWN 15 NE SLK 40 NE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 20 W VLD 35 NNE AYS 30 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE P07 40 N ABI 50 N FTW 30 E DAL 40 ESE SHV 30 NE LFT 25 NNW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CTB 60 NE MSO 20 SW 3DU 35 WSW BTM 20 NNE 27U 25 NNW BKE LWS GEG 45 WNW GEG 20 SW 4OM 50 WNW 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SD/NEB/IA THIS EVENING... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HELP TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO SD/NEB TODAY...WHERE AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SURFACE PARCELS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK FROM EASTERN SD INTO IA. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDES UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...NEB/CO/KS THIS EVENING... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM CO INTO KS. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES ARE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN KS/NEB DURING THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. ..HART/BRIGHT.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 15:17:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 10:17:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509021634.j82GYrNG001450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021632 SWODY1 SPC AC 021630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AQQ 30 NE VLD 30 SSE SAV ...CONT... 50 ESE P07 45 N SJT 10 NNW MWL 35 NNE LFT 30 NNW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH 60 ENE ELY 55 WSW SUN 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 50 NE HVR 20 SSE 3HT 35 SSW COD 20 SE BPI 55 SE RKS 25 WSW CYS 45 NNW BFF 50 NW REJ 15 NE SDY 50 ENE MOT 30 NNE FAR 25 W MSP 35 NNW ALO 35 NNE DSM 10 SSW P35 15 NW VIH 30 S MKL 30 ESE TUP 40 NE JAN 45 SW GLH 25 WNW HOT 15 WNW END 15 ENE GAG 60 S CVS 45 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EPM 15 W AUG 15 ENE MPV 25 WSW MSS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER CENTRAL MT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD ERN MT...WHILE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO NRN NEB LIFTS SLOWLY NWD. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ELEVATED MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ON THE LBF AND RAP SOUNDINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IS LIKELY TO ADVECT NWD FROM KS/NEB INTO PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY AS HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS BAND OF WSWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO NRN IA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THESE WEAK FEATURES MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NERN KS INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP /INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ BUT OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRIMARILY TONIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER CLOUD LAYER SHEAR INDICATES THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL BUT COVERAGE AGAIN APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 18:47:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 13:47:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509022004.j82K4qXQ021760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022002 SWODY1 SPC AC 022000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 25 S SGU 15 N MLF 35 NW PUC 30 N CAG 25 N LAR 45 ENE DGW 15 SE 81V 10 NNE 4BQ 30 ENE MLS 25 ENE GDV 20 SW MOT 25 SW DVL 45 WNW FAR 20 WNW RWF 30 NNW DSM 40 SSE IRK 40 ENE UNO 55 WSW MEM 40 W GLH 35 ESE TXK 20 SE ADM 20 SW FSI 10 SE PVW 25 NW HOB 55 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 NE JCT 45 NE CLL 30 SW POE 10 WSW BTR 20 SSE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EPM 15 NNE AUG 25 W BML 25 NE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 30 NE VLD 30 SSE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CTB 40 WNW LWT 40 SW LVM 15 SE MQM 65 NNW SUN 40 SW S80 35 NW 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SRN ND AND WRN SD. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE...FORMING ALONG AND TO THE NE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING NWWD INTO SERN MT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ESEWD...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CNTRL AND ERN SD TO ERN NEB AND WRN IA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS...ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL US WITH WEST TO NW FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK REGION. A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL KS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS NEWD OF THE MOISTURE AXIS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE STORMS IN SE KS AND WRN MO ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL PLUME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION TONIGHT SUGGEST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 23:46:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 18:46:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509030103.j8313qqQ005525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030101 SWODY1 SPC AC 030100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 10 NE 3B1 70 NNW 3B1 ...CONT... 10 NW PIE 25 NNW DAB ...CONT... 10 WNW DRT 65 W JCT 10 S SJT 35 SSW ABI 30 N BWD 30 SSE SEP 30 SE TPL 40 SSW CLL 55 NNE VCT 15 ESE PSX ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 40 S LAS 50 S ELY 50 NE ELY 10 WSW DPG 30 NE CNY 15 W FCL 40 WNW BFF 45 WSW RAP 50 NNE 4BQ 35 ESE GDV 15 SW P24 40 W DVL 35 ESE DVL 20 ENE FAR 30 ESE STC 25 NNE RST 45 E MCW 35 SSE SPW 35 NE OMA FLV 30 WSW SZL 25 WNW TBN 50 NE UNO POF 35 ENE JBR 20 ESE MEM 35 NNW GLH 35 W HOT 25 ENE MLC 30 N OKC 15 S GAG 60 NE AMA 10 S AMA 50 W LBB 25 ESE ROW 10 SSW ALM 35 SSE DMN ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 20 WSW 3HT 10 NNW IDA 45 W SUN 80 SSE S80 S06 100 N 3TH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DAKOTAS TO SWRN MN... MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KT WAS DIRECTED FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NWD TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT BENEATH BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE LEE-TROUGH OVER ERN MT...ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...TO NWRN IA. WEAK MID/UPR LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PASSING DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED... ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AND PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO A SMALL MCS AND SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. ...NEB PNHDL/NERN CO... A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN NEB PNHDL AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND MAY POSE A LIMITED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..CARBIN.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 04:45:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 23:45:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509030602.j8362ZYJ004049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030600 SWODY1 SPC AC 030558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ATY 50 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 NNW BRD 55 SSW DLH 20 NW EAU 35 NW LSE 20 SSW RST 25 SE FRM 20 N OTG ATY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 10 N SDY 30 NW BNO 35 SE RDM 25 ENE RDM 25 ENE ALW 35 NW S06 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 35 E BLH 30 N EED 45 W SGU 25 WSW U24 25 ENE OGD 45 W RKS 25 ESE RWL 25 NE CYS 40 WNW AKO 25 SSW AKO 25 NE GLD 30 NNW HLC EAR 20 NNW OLU 30 NW SUX 25 WSW FSD 15 WSW MHE 35 ENE PIR 25 ESE BIS 10 SW GFK 10 NW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 25 E JVL 30 SW BRL 40 ENE COU 50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 20 NNW PIE 30 E ORL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS...SRN MN AND WRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES...SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH AND THEN CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SRN MN. ELSEWHERE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED WITHIN WEAK FLOW BENEATH EXTENSIVE AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO TX AND THE OZARKS. ...ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SRN MN... PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR REPEAT SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE MO RIVER VLY NWD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. A WARM FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND ROUGHLY BISECT THE DAKOTAS FROM NW TO SE EARLY IN THE DAY. GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SFC TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY AID IN LOCALLY REINFORCING THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OVERCOME INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY NEAR THE FRONT TO RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED WELL BY THE LATEST GFS...ETA...AND ETAKF GUIDANCE. STRONG TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE NEAR AND ACROSS THE FRONT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER SFC-BASED STORMS CAN TAKE ROOT. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED SFC-BASED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT AND INHIBITION BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE. HOWEVER...FORECAST KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT EVEN AN ISOLATED CELL ANCHORED PREFERENTIALLY ON THE WARM FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO. THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY LATER TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AFTER DARK AND COULD EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS WITH ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF WRN WI OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 11:15:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 06:15:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509031232.j83CWjOf031763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031231 SWODY1 SPC AC 031229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABR 55 SE JMS FAR BRD 55 SSW DLH EAU RST FRM BKX ABR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 35 E BLH 30 N EED 45 W SGU 25 WSW U24 30 NE OGD 35 SE IDA 35 ENE WEY 30 NNW COD 35 ENE RWL 25 NE CYS 40 WNW AKO 25 SSW AKO 25 NE GLD 30 NNW HLC EAR 20 NNW OLU 30 NW SUX 25 WSW FSD 15 WSW MHE 35 ENE PIR 20 ENE BIS 10 SW GFK 10 NW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 25 E JVL 30 SW BRL 40 ENE COU 50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 10 N SDY 60 SSE RDM 30 SSW RDM 25 NE RDM 25 ENE ALW 35 NW S06 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PIE 30 E ORL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER MIDWEST... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG...ABOVE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ROTATION...PROMOTING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS. FORECAST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS RISK SEEMS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..HART/JEWELL.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 15:26:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 10:26:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509031644.j83GiAmr003918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031642 SWODY1 SPC AC 031640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAU 20 ESE LSE 35 WNW DBQ 20 SSW ALO 15 WNW OTG BKX 20 N ATY 55 S FAR 25 ESE FAR BRD 55 SSW DLH EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 45 SE EED 25 NE LAS 45 NNE P38 35 N DPG 40 W IDA 35 N SUN 55 NNE BOI 15 WNW BNO 55 SSE RDM 20 W RDM 35 WNW PDT 10 NW GEG 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 55 N ISN 20 WSW ISN 65 E LWT 35 SW BIL 30 ENE WRL 40 S DGW 20 ESE AKO 40 S DHT 45 WNW CDS 35 SE FSI 30 S ICT 20 S EAR 35 WSW YKN HON 55 NE MBG JMS 30 SSW TVF 10 WNW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 15 SE MKE 35 SE BRL 40 ENE COU 50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 50 N PIE 15 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM MCS MOVING OVER MN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TURN SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT ADVANCES BEYOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO REGION OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SD INTO IA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD ALTHOUGH MOVEMENT MAY BE INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF MN. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... CURRENT MCS IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. ANIMATED RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE ROTATION WITHIN NRN PORTION OF MCS...WITH QUASI-LINEAR LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT IS EXHIBITING WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN UPDRAFT INTENSITY OF SYSTEM. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 700 MB BASED ON 12Z ABR SOUNDING AND CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR HAIL. STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS CLOUD SHIELD...AND ALTHOUGH PRIMARY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD INCREASE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD THE ZONE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN AND NWRN IA. ATTENDANT CAP OVER THE DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...WE WILL MONITOR THE REGION OF NERN SD..SERN ND INTO MN IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT MCS FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..WEISS/TAYLOR.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 18:34:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 13:34:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509031952.j83JqBIr018949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031949 SWODY1 SPC AC 031948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DSM 45 S SPW 25 NNW FSD 20 SW ATY 65 N ATY 50 ESE FAR 10 ENE BRD EAU 40 WNW LNR 15 W DBQ 30 WSW CID 20 NNE DSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 40 SSW SGU 20 E ENV 45 NNW SUN 45 WSW S80 15 NNW PUW 50 NW S06 85 NE 3TH 45 N GTF SHR 30 SE CYS 15 NE TCC 25 W HOB 30 SSE INK 65 NE P07 30 S SJT 25 ESE BWD 10 E MWL 30 NE FSI 30 SSE RSL 40 NE BUB 20 E 9V9 50 WNW ABR 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 65 ENE ELO 35 NNE RHI 15 WSW OSH JVL 25 SW STL 25 WNW LIT 40 ESE SHV 40 NW LFT 15 SSW BTR 50 NW GPT 15 ESE SEM 20 S AUO ABY 25 S VLD 10 NW GNV 15 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST AND NRN PLAINS... ...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN MN. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUSTAINING THE CURRENT STORM ACTIVITY AND SUPPORTING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WNW TO ESE FROM NRN SD INTO SW MN AND NRN IA. A CAPPED AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...THE INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED AND THE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SRN MN ARE LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE 850 MB. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN SCNTRL MN. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE IN NRN IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING HOURS. PROFILERS IN SW MN CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KT. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY A BIT LESS DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. STILL...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE LINEAR ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FROM MULTICELLS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE. AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE...MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE LESS DUE TO THE COOLER SFC AIR NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 23:51:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 18:51:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509040108.j8418tx9031144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040106 SWODY1 SPC AC 040105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ALO 15 NNW SPW 25 SW BKX 40 SE MBG 35 NE MBG 15 SSW JMS 15 ENE BRD 15 NW EAU 15 NNW VOK 10 ESE DBQ 10 NNE CID 40 SW ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CZZ 50 WNW EED 60 E LAS 35 WNW CDC 20 E ENV 45 NNW SUN 40 WSW S80 10 NNW PUW 45 NW S06 85 NE 3TH 40 SSW HVR 75 SSW GGW 50 N DGW 35 WNW BFF 30 N AKO 20 NNE IML 35 NNW GRI 50 NE BUB 25 E 9V9 25 NE PHP 60 N PHP 40 W BIS 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 65 ENE ELO 35 NNE RHI 15 WSW OSH JVL 25 SW STL 25 WNW LIT 25 ENE SHV 40 SE CLL 15 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BML 10 NNW LEB 20 W GFL 25 SSW ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE RSL 25 WNW OKC 15 SE MWL 25 ESE BWD 30 S SJT 35 SSW MAF 20 SE HOB 30 ENE CVS 45 ESE TAD 25 SSW LIC 30 NNW GCK 25 SSE RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIE 20 SSE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...1) ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER ERN MN/WRN WI ATTM...AND 2) TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA/DAKOTAS...PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY ZONE OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/N OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER SEWD ACROSS SWRN MN TO NRN AND ERN IA. STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSING INTO ERN SD/WRN MN THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE INFLOW OF AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO SERN/CENTRAL MN AND WNWWD TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WHERE PARCELS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LFC. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF DAKOTAS MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF SD/SRN ND INTO MN/WRN WI...AND NERN IA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG...MAINLY ELEVATED...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH ANOTHER MCS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS MN. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 04:57:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 23:57:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509040615.j846F2aa030877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040610 SWODY1 SPC AC 040609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25 N BJI 40 WSW FAR 35 SSW JMS 25 SE BIS 20 NNW BIS 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB 15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DAB 15 E VLD 45 NW AYS 55 WNW SAV 20 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 50 NW TUS 30 ESE PRC 35 W GUP 55 S 4BL 35 E DPG 10 SSE MLD 35 NNW PIH 45 N SUN 45 WNW BOI 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 45 SSW S06 105 NNE 3TH ...CONT... 30 ENE ELO 10 NW HIB 20 ENE BRD 60 NE MSP 20 SE RHI 40 NNE MKE 25 SW CGX 30 SW UIN JLN 15 SSW TUL 45 SSE SPS 10 S TPL 25 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PIR 30 SW VTN 55 ENE SNY 30 ENE IML 20 ENE LBF 55 E ANW 15 ESE MHE 20 ENE HON 40 ENE PIR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN ND INTO NWRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BC SATURDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TOWARD AB AND THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE EWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE NRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH TRACKING NEWD OVER ID TO MT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MANITOBA AND ALSO INTO CENTRAL ND. AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE IN ND. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER ERN MT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST. ...NRN PLAINS... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MN INTO SWRN WI AND NERN IA/NWRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO ATOP SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM ND INTO WRN WI..BUT MUCH OF THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EML. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THIS REGION SHOULD AID IN WEAKENING THE CAP OVER ND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM MB SWWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL ND BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NERN ND. FURTHER S ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO WRN SD TO NERN CO...STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED DUE TO A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL WINDS. ...MT/WY TO WRN ND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/NWRN WY THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. THUS...HAVE FORECAST LOW SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO ERN MT/WRN ND TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS NEWD. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 11:09:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 06:09:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509041226.j84CQbNg006564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041224 SWODY1 SPC AC 041223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25 N BJI 60 WSW ABR 35 WNW PIR 30 WSW MBG 15 N BIS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB 15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DAB 15 E VLD 45 NW AYS 55 WNW SAV 20 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 50 NW TUS PRC 10 NNE GCN 30 N BCE 35 E U24 35 N OGD 45 ESE SUN 25 NW SUN 45 WNW BOI 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 45 SSW S06 95 NNE 3TH ...CONT... 50 ENE ELO 15 N HIB 35 WSW DLH 65 NNW EAU 20 SE RHI 40 NNE MKE 25 SW CGX 40 SE UIN JLN 20 SW MKO 40 ESE OKC 35 SSE SPS 25 NE BWD 45 NW AUS 45 ESE AUS 25 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...AND WESTERN MN... ...ND/MN/SD... UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN WY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST ND TO NEAR RAP. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH MUCH OF DAY...LIKELY SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING ACROSS SD AND UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD AID THREAT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FROM EASTERN ND INTO CENTRAL SD...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MN DURING EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...MN/WI THIS MORNING... CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED NEAR MSP MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST IA TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ...CO/NEB... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/CO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION. ...MT... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MT...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/JEWELL.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 15:27:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 10:27:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509041645.j84Gj3ws027870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041642 SWODY1 SPC AC 041640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ELO 20 ENE BJI 60 WSW ABR 35 WNW PIR 35 ESE Y22 35 NW BIS 60 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB 15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 55 NNW IWD 40 WNW IWD 40 W RHI 25 ESE RHI 40 NNE MKE 45 SSE CGX 25 SSE SPI 20 W VIH 20 NW FYV 25 WSW PGO 35 NNW DAL 50 SW CLL 25 NE GLS ...CONT... 10 NNW SAN 35 NNW TRM 10 WNW IGM 25 WSW U24 30 SSW MLD 20 ENE BYI 35 NNW OWY 70 SE BNO 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 35 WSW S06 90 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 25 SSE GNV 25 NE VLD 45 NW AYS 45 SSE AGS 15 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 15 SSW HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PART OF TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. WLY/SWLY FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SHIFTING EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREA NEWD INTO WY THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO EXTREME N CENTRAL MN... CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW OVER W CENTRAL ND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN SD INTO SWRN IA. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS WSWWD THRU S CENTRAL MT THEN CONTINUES NWWD THRU THE NRN ID PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ON NOSE OF 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION ZONE. THIS WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY EVIDENT BY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NRN MN AT THIS TIME MOVING EWD TOWARD NWRN WI/WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NEWD TODAY INTO NERN ND BY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DRAGS SEWD EXTENDING INTO N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL SD. LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON GOING INTO THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AREA UNDERNEATH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ENHANCE UVVS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8.0-8.5 C/KM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ELEVATED. BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT... SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER LATER TODAY UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF 50-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT WITH 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 350 M2/S2. PROFILES ARE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 18:43:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 13:43:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509042000.j84K0Ixa010112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041958 SWODY1 SPC AC 041956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 SSW BJI 25 NNW HON PIR 35 WNW PIR 40 W MBG 45 SE MOT 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 10 SSE BTR 20 NNW MCB 30 NE JAN 15 SSW CBM 20 NE TCL 35 E 0A8 30 SW DHN 30 N AQQ 30 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SAN 45 N TRM 50 NNW IGM 25 NNE MLF 35 W SLC 40 SE BYI 10 NE TWF 45 NNW OWY 70 SE BNO 30 NE BNO 40 ESE PDT 35 NNW 3TH 105 WNW CTB ...CONT... 50 N CMX 40 E IWD 15 SE RHI 35 S OSH 20 NE MMO 25 NW DEC 15 ENE VIH 25 WNW FSM 35 SW DUA 20 N ACT 30 S TPL 50 SE AUS 50 N PSX 10 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY GNV 35 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NCNTRL US WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN MT AND ERN WY DRIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS CAPPED...INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EARLY EVENING ACROSS ECNTRL ND AND CNTRL SD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO NE SD. SFC DEWPOINTS NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 60S F AND ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL ND WHICH APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD FROM WRN SD INTO ERN ND SHOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL FORMATION. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORM SEGMENTS. STORM INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. ...HIGH PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL AID THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN MT...ERN WY AND ERN CO. AS THE STORMS MOVE ENEWD INTO THE PLAINS...HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY TO THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INTENSIFICATION. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREADING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 23:44:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 18:44:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509050101.j8511k1F025216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050059 SWODY1 SPC AC 050058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 SSW BJI 25 NNW HON PIR 35 WNW PIR 45 WNW MBG 50 SE MOT 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 10 SSE BTR 20 NNW MCB 30 NE JAN 10 NW CBM 15 NNW BHM 40 E 0A8 30 SW DHN 30 N AQQ 30 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SAN 45 N TRM 50 NNW IGM 25 NNE MLF 35 W SLC 40 SE BYI 10 NE TWF 45 NNW OWY 70 SE BNO 30 NE BNO 40 ESE PDT 35 NNW 3TH 105 WNW CTB ...CONT... 50 N CMX 40 E IWD 15 SE RHI 35 S OSH 20 NE MMO 25 NW DEC 15 ENE VIH 25 WNW FSM 35 SW DUA 20 N ACT 30 S TPL 50 SE AUS 50 N PSX 10 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY 40 W JAX 15 NE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS TO NRN MN... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MB SWWD INTO CENTRAL ND TO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND THEN WWD INTO WY. A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SWWD INTO FAR ERN CO. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THE TROUGHS IN THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE...BUT REMAINS CAPPED. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE SPREAD ENEWD WEAKENING THIS CAP. AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND/OR LLJ STRENGTHENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD INTO NWRN MN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS /MT TO WRN ND/... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER ID...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTENING ATOP A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEED 40F. THUS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM CENTRAL INTO ERN MT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...WRN KS/PARTS OF WRN NEB... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN KS ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LEE TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ IS RESULTING IN 25-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... DESPITE MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /10-15 KT AT 500 MB/. A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30 DEGREES WILL TEND TO FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO MID EVENING. ..PETERS.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 04:38:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 23:38:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509050556.j855uADc009904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050554 SWODY1 SPC AC 050552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 NNW EAU 55 ESE SUX 50 NE HLC 40 W HLC 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40 WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 35 S PHX 35 S PRC 40 N PRC 60 SE PGA 30 SSW 4BL 10 NNW CNY 45 SSE RKS 15 N RWL 20 WNW CPR 30 SSE WRL 55 SSW COD 10 SSW JAC 15 NNW IDA 30 W MQM 20 SSE HLN 40 ESE LWT 30 SW MLS 35 SE MLS 20 S GDV 30 SSE OLF 20 WSW GGW 65 NNW GGW ...CONT... 30 N ANJ 25 W OSH 25 WSW ALO 20 NE P28 15 WNW GAG 30 NW CDS 45 WNW ABI 10 NE JCT 25 NE SAT 35 NE CLL 20 NNW SHV 25 SW HOT 45 SW JBR 25 N MKL 35 SE BWG 40 NNW TYS 25 SSW TYS 15 SE CHA 15 SSE BHM 30 WNW SEM 60 SW SEM 25 S CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 20 SSW AYS 15 NNE SAV 20 NNW CHS 15 NNE CRE 45 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MT/ND/NRN MN AND ADJACENT REGIONS OF SRN CANADA AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CANADA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WRN ND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. BY 00Z...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN MB SWWD TO FAR ERN ND...AND THEN WSWWD INTO WY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS TO SERN CO. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...STRONGEST FORCING FOR LIFT AND ATTENDANT THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN INTO SERN MB/NWRN ONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD INTO NWRN ONT THIS MORNING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NRN MN...AS THIS LEAD TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED EAST OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN/NRN MN. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGER TROUGH OVER CANADA...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM ERN ND/NERN SD INTO WRN/NRN MN. MODELS SUGGEST STORM MODE MAY BECOME LINEAR AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING. INSTABILITY FARTHER S ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO NEB AND WRN KS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...BUT SHOULD BE MODERATE RANGING FROM 1000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEB INTO NWRN KS. LARGE HAIL /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS /SERN MT INTO NRN AND ERN WY/... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN/ERN WY AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN THIS REGION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 11:28:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 06:28:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509051246.j85Ck3dH009070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051243 SWODY1 SPC AC 051241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 W IWD 25 SE MKT 25 SW OLU 40 SSW MCK 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40 WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 NE CMX 20 SSW GRB 25 ESE RFD BMI SPI 35 SE BRL 20 W MLI 40 ENE ALO 30 WSW ICT 10 SW GAG 35 N CDS 70 ESE LBB 25 NW SJT 10 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 20 SSW AYS 15 NNE SAV 20 NNW CHS 15 NNE CRE 45 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LRD 25 SSW CLL 20 ENE LFK 15 NE SHV LIT 45 SW JBR 10 N MKL 30 SSE CKV 30 E BNA 35 NNW CHA 30 NNE GAD 15 SSE BHM 30 WNW SEM 60 SW SEM 25 S CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 35 S PHX 35 S PRC 40 N PRC 60 SE PGA 30 SSW 4BL 10 NNW CNY 45 SSE RKS 15 N RWL 45 W CPR IDA 30 W MQM 20 SSE HLN 40 ESE LWT 30 SW MLS 25 NE MLS 35 S OLF GGW 60 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS... MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MT/WY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...LIKELY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. A WEAKENING CAP...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT...WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS OVER EASTERN ND/SD. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. ...NEBRASKA... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NEB INTO EASTERN CO. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID INITIATION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION /MULTICELL OR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ..HART/JEWELL.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 15:04:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 10:04:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509051622.j85GMBAl028302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051619 SWODY1 SPC AC 051618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 W IWD 25 SE MKT 25 SW OLU 40 SSW MCK 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40 WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN PRC PGA 35 W PUC 10 WSW EVW PIH 30 W MQM HLN LWT MLS 10 SSE OLF 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 130 ENE CMX OSH DBQ LWD ICT 40 ESE GAG CDS 70 ESE LBB SJT 10 SSW DRT ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 10 NE CLL GGG TXK HOT JBR DYR BNA 35 NNW CHA GAD SEM 25 SE CEW ...CONT... CTY AYS 40 NW SAV 45 SE CAE FLO 45 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN RED RIVER VALLEY WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE MOIST CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NNWWD ALONG LEE TROUGH TO A LOW CENTER OVER SERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD WEAKEN CAP INTO ND AND CENTRAL/NERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN FIRST JUST BEHIND H85-H7 COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ND AROUND 20-21Z. MORNING MODELS EXPAND MOIST CONVECTION EWD AND SWD OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE MID EVENING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF SD/ND AND WRN MN WHERE LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE/ WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW ECHO FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING INTO SERN ND/NERN SD/W-CENTRAL MN WITH ATTENDANT INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER DARK...ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG NOSE OF 50+ SWLY LLJ AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HOW FAR SOUTH INTO WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR REMAINS MORE QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEEP MIXING AS AFTERNOON HIGHS EXCEED THE LOWER 90SF SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. PREDOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WITH A MIX OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL...WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 18:42:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 13:42:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509051959.j85JxmDD029545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051957 SWODY1 SPC AC 051955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 60 SE DLH 15 S MKT 25 SW OLU 45 ENE GLD 20 NNW GLD 45 W IML 30 WNW VTN 10 ESE MBG 10 NE BIS 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CTY AYS 40 NW SAV 45 SE CAE FLO 45 WSW HSE ...CONT... 100 NNW ANJ 40 S IMT 15 N DBQ 35 NE P35 20 WNW EMP 40 E GAG 35 NNE CDS 65 NNW ABI SJT 10 SSW DRT ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 10 NE CLL GGG TXK HOT JBR DYR BNA 35 NNW CHA GAD SEM 25 SE CEW ...CONT... 75 S GBN GBN PRC PGA 35 W PUC 10 WSW EVW PIH 30 W MQM 35 ESE HLN 35 ESE LWT MLS 10 SSE OLF 60 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...ERN DAKOTAS...NEB THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO SERN MT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO NERN CO. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN AND SWWD INTO NEB. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. HEATING IS BEING TEMPERED SOMEWHAT OVER ND INTO MN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS WIDESPREAD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST FROM ERN SD INTO MN DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THIS REGION AS THE CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR CURRENTLY REMAINS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS MN...SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...A BELT OF STRONGER (30-40 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE CAP WEAKENING FARTHER SW INTO NEB. MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 23:46:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 18:46:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509060103.j8613YkI010519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060101 SWODY1 SPC AC 060059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ELO 60 ESE BRD 35 SSE FSD 25 E HSI 30 ENE HLC 40 SE GLD 30 SSW GLD 10 SW GLD 25 NNE MCK 25 ENE LBF 40 NW BBW 25 WSW ANW 30 NW 9V9 40 NNE FAR 50 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNW ANJ 40 S IMT 30 NNW DBQ 35 NE LWD 20 WNW EMP 50 ENE GAG 35 NNE CDS 65 ESE LBB 50 W SJT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW TUS 35 WNW SAD 60 NNE INW 60 SSW 4BL 30 E GJT 55 NE CAG 15 N CPR 15 NW COD 45 E LVM 35 NNE BIL 15 N Y22 35 NNE BIS 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 40 SE VLD 35 NNW SSI CHS 15 NE CRE 30 SE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GLS 30 SSE LFK 15 E GGG TXK HOT 15 ENE PBF 40 NE MLU 35 SSE HEZ 25 NNE MSY 35 SSW MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT FROM NW KS/CENTRAL NEB TO MN.... ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AREA TONIGHT... A BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NW MN/SE ND/ERN SD. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE AND ENCOUNTER A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG/ FROM ERN SD INTO NW MN. ADDITIONALLY...THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO NW MN...AND AS SSWLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40-50 KT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS. FARTHER SW...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NW KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB. THIS CONVECTION FORMED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WERE MAXIMIZED...AND WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAD SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED THE CAP. DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AFTER SUNSET...THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING SLY LLJ. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL ROUGHLY 04-06Z...AFTER WHICH TIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE. ..THOMPSON.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 04:34:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 23:34:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509060551.j865pt9o002364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060549 SWODY1 SPC AC 060548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 WNW DSM 40 NE HLC 15 WSW GCK 20 S LAA 35 ESE COS 30 SE DEN 25 WNW FCL 50 SSW DGW 40 NE DGW 30 NNW CDR 45 W VTN 40 NE ANW 20 ENE FSD 30 NNE MSP 45 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OSC 35 S MKE 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 10 ESE ICT 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 20 ESE INW 65 NW GUP 25 SW 4BL 15 SW CNY 35 SW VEL 35 SSE RKS 20 E BIL 30 NW MLS 25 ESE GDV 50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM UPPER MI AND WI SWWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN/CENTRAL MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS MN/WI/UPPER MI. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. ...MN/NRN IA/WI/UPPER MI THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SURGED SEWD INTO SRN/ERN MN AND SERN SD...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BEING FED FROM THE SW BY A NARROW INSTABILITY CORRIDOR THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH A 50 KT LLJ FROM NEB INTO SW MN. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...THOUGH THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT...SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN IA/SRN MN/WI. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MID-UPPER WESTERLIES NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOWS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F /BENEATH A PLUME OF 8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NW KS/NE CO/WRN NEB AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS. GRADUAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEB/NW KS...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NE CO/WRN NEB...WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH WLY MID-UPPER FLOW EXCEEDING 50 KT NEAR 300 MB. THUS...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. NWD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN...WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 11:39:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 06:39:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509061256.j86CuLAj018128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061253 SWODY1 SPC AC 061252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 E SUX 40 NE HLC 15 WSW GCK 20 S LAA 35 ESE COS 30 SE DEN 25 WNW FCL 50 SSW DGW 40 NE DGW 30 NNW CDR 45 W VTN 40 NE ANW 20 SE BKX 30 NNE MSP 45 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 20 ESE INW 65 NW GUP 25 WSW 4BL 15 SSW U28 30 WSW VEL 10 ENE RKS 25 N RIW 50 WNW COD 35 SW BZN 30 S HLN 35 ENE HLN 45 NW MLS 25 SE GDV 50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 S OSC 35 S MKE 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SD/MN/WI... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH BAND OF WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST SD. DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. LACK OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NEB/KS/CO/WY... WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. AIR MASS IS ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST KS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE THETA-E AXIS FROM NORTHEAST NM...ACROSS WESTERN KS...INTO SOUTHERN NEB. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-SEVERE. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY OUTLOOKED LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA. ..HART/GUYER.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 15:12:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 10:12:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509061629.j86GTET4012063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061625 SWODY1 SPC AC 061624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE AIA 15 NNE IML 35 ENE GLD 50 S GLD 40 SSE LIC 30 N COS 25 W FCL 25 S LAR 25 NE LAR 25 NW BFF 30 SE AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 30 SSE IMT 30 NNE VOK 20 S EAU 65 NW EAU 60 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 40 S INW 65 SSE PGA 30 NW PGA 35 SSE U24 15 WNW SLC 35 WNW RKS 35 NNW LND 50 ESE WEY 35 SW 27U 40 ESE S80 45 WSW MSO 45 SW HVR 35 WSW GGW 50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL ...CONT... 70 NNE MTC 40 WNW BEH 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SWD OVER MUCH OF ERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH PRESSURE RISES AND COOL/DRY AIR NOW IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE ESELY SURFACE WINDS COMMENCE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER FAR ERN CO/SWRN NEB WILL ADVECT WWD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEW POINTS LIKELY RECOVERING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER FAR SERN WY/NERN CO. THUS...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER 21Z ACROSS THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL SHIFT EWD OVER INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DESPITE WEAK WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER CELLS MAY SUSTAIN ROTATION AND INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG LEE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT FOR AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM INTENSITIES/ ORGANIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI AND NRN WI. HERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER UNDER MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD SUPPORT FEW ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MORE LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 18:38:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 13:38:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509061955.j86JtnOa002335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061952 SWODY1 SPC AC 061951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MTC 40 WNW BEH 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 40 S INW 65 SSE PGA 30 NW PGA 35 SSE U24 15 WNW SLC 35 WNW RKS 35 NNW LND 50 ESE WEY 35 SW 27U 40 ESE S80 45 WSW MSO 45 SW HVR 75 WSW GGW 45 NNE RAP 20 SW PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NWRN WI SWWD THROUGH SRN MN...NRN NEB INTO NE CO WHERE IT INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH ERN CO. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN SHIFTED S OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM. FARTHER W OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE CO... DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOIST ELY UPSLOPE REGIME HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND SERN WY...AND FARTHER NE ALONG THE FRONT. MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AWAY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 23:37:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 18:37:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509070054.j870sKMD016856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070052 SWODY1 SPC AC 070050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 40 S INW 65 SSE PGA 30 NW PGA 35 SSE U24 15 WNW SLC 35 WNW RKS 35 NNW LND 50 ESE WEY 40 W MQM 50 NNW 27U 15 SSE MSO 45 ENE GTF 75 WSW GGW 45 NNE RAP 20 SW PIR 40 NW RWF 15 ENE MSP 20 WSW RHI 50 E MQT ...CONT... 70 NNE MTC 20 NE MKG 15 WSW MLI 20 S P35 15 SSE MHK 30 WSW END 25 SSW CDS 20 ENE INK 85 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LRD 10 NNE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 25 SSW BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SWWD TO NERN NM/NRN TX PANHANDLE... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE U.P. OF MI SWWD ACROSS SERN MN/NRN IA TO NRN NEB...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM SWRN NEB TO FAR WRN KS AND ERN NM. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS NEB OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS WRN AND NRN NEB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER/SEVERE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...UNTIL AROUND 03Z...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB...GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FURTHER S...A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN NM INTO SWRN KS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ..PETERS.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 04:37:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 23:37:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509070555.j875t6Pm024976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070552 SWODY1 SPC AC 070551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N SDY 35 E ISN 15 WSW MOT 40 NE BIS 20 NNE HON 15 ESE YKN OLU 10 E HSI 45 NNE HLC 50 WSW HLC 50 WNW GCK 10 NW LAA 40 S LIC 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 30 SSE MLS 10 N SDY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 WNW PHX 10 SSW FLG 60 NNW INW 55 ESE PGA 15 E PUC 25 S RKS 30 NNE RWL 35 SW SHR 35 ESE 3HT 75 NE LWT 45 N GGW ...CONT... 65 N GFK AXN 35 NNW MKT 30 SW EAU 30 SE CWA 35 NNW TVC 70 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 15 E EFK 10 SSW CAK 25 SSE SPI 20 ENE MKC 35 S DDC 10 ESE CVS 45 WNW CNM 25 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTY 20 NW SAV 35 NNE CRE 25 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE DRT 45 WNW HDO 25 N SAT 25 ESE AUS 35 WNW HOU 15 WSW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AS MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHS REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WITH ONE TRACKING EWD TOWARD QUE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z THURSDAY. A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN CA PER WV IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD ONT/QUE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SSEWD TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND MID MS VALLEY. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COLD FRONT...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER NRN/WRN NEB...WILL RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM ERN MT/WY AND EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB/DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WRN CANADA MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL/WRN SD. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ID TROUGH AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS...UPSLOPE FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN SD INTO ERN WY/SERN MT. A 25-30 KT SELY LLJ LOCATED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS AND BENEATH 35-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THIS STORM MODE...A COMBINATION OF SEVERE THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO. A STRENGTHENING/ VEERING LLJ NOSING INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT SUGGESTS AN UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS/S. ...IA TO SWRN GREAT LAKES REGION... DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-6.5 C/KM/ WILL LIMIT SBCAPE WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS IA TOWARD THE SWRN GREAT LAKES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE. ..PETERS/CARBIN.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 11:35:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 06:35:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509071252.j87CqANC028942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071250 SWODY1 SPC AC 071248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW REJ 35 S DIK 15 SSW BIS 20 NNE HON 15 ESE YKN OLU 10 E HSI 45 NNE HLC 15 WNW GLD 15 W AKO 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 15 WSW 81V 30 NW REJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 30 NE AXN 15 SSE STC 20 ESE EAU 25 ESE CWA 40 E ESC 15 S ANJ ...CONT... 15 E EFK 10 SSW CAK 25 SSE SPI 25 ESE MKC 40 WNW END 15 NE CDS 35 E LBB 50 NE HOB 25 ENE CNM 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 WNW PHX 10 SSW FLG 60 NNW INW 55 ESE PGA 15 E PUC 25 S RKS 30 NNE RWL 35 SW SHR 30 SE 3HT 75 WSW GGW 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTY 20 NW SAV 35 NNE CRE 25 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE DRT 45 WNW HDO 25 N SAT 25 ESE AUS 35 WNW HOU 15 WSW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NORTHERN PLAINS... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN MT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD/NEB THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CAP TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN SD. THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOWS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING THE EVENING MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR SOME THREAT OF TORNADOES AS WELL. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AFTER DARK...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...IA/IL/WI... WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SUPPORTING MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...FL/SC... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY OFF THE FL COAST. JAX/CHS VAD PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MARGINAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF TORNADOES OR GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HART/GUYER.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 14:56:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 09:56:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509071613.j87GDHj8007069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071607 SWODY1 SPC AC 071605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MLS 65 SE GDV 20 N MBG 40 SW ABR 30 WSW MHE 20 SSW ANW 15 SSW LBF 35 NNW GLD 15 W AKO 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 25 SSW 4BQ 35 SE MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 20 E PRC 35 ENE GCN 30 WNW 4HV 50 NE U24 25 E OGD 45 ESE BPI 25 SSE CPR 50 NNE CPR 20 WNW SHR 15 NW BIL 35 SSW GGW 65 NNE OLF ...CONT... 65 N GFK 35 SSE BJI 40 E STC CWA 30 SSE ESC 15 S ANJ ...CONT... 35 NW BML 10 SSW CAK 20 ENE HUF 25 ESE MKC 30 NNW PNC 15 ENE LBB 30 S ROW 30 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15 NW ILM 20 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 45 NW NIR 40 NE VCT 10 W GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS NEAR FAR SERN MT/NERN WY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW WORKING ITS WAY EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF LEE TROUGH...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON RAP/S 12Z SOUNDING. THIS WILL HINDER HEATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WRN NEB AND CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER JUST WEST OF THESE CLOUDS...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON OR NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. BROAD AREA OF 25-35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOW ECHOES. EWD EXTENT OF ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL BE MODULATED BY HOW MUCH MIXING/DISSIPATION CAN OCCUR WITHIN CURRENT AREA OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. AFTER DARK...SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEB AND MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING STORMS...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO AND EAST OF MID MO RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN LOWER MI... SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED EWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... AND INTO NRN LOWER MI...THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT ORGANIZATION ALONG PERSISTENT STORM-OUTFLOW. LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE PRECEEDING THESE STORMS THIS MORNING ALSO SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE WITH INFLUX OF AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...AREA VWP/S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE WEAKLY ORGANIZED. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SRN WI/NRN IA INTO NRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS STRONGER CELLS WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED WITH ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ...NERN FL/COASTAL GA... WITH TS OPHELIA REMAINING JUST OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD /REFERENCE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM NHC/...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING/ROTATING WSWWD OVER THIS REGION. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK GIVEN NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL NELY WIND PROFILES. HOWEVER...BRIEF LOW LEVEL ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER CELLS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...SUGGESTING TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 18:19:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 13:19:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509071936.j87JatTX030782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071934 SWODY1 SPC AC 071932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE 81V REJ 50 SW MBG 50 ENE PIR 40 SE 9V9 50 WNW LBF 30 NNW GLD 25 ENE LIC 25 ESE DEN 10 ENE FCL 50 SE DGW 65 WSW RAP 45 NNE 81V. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CWA 25 WNW MBL 10 SW HTL 35 S HTL 20 N GRR 40 E MKE 15 ESE LNR 20 NNW LNR 35 S CWA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 30 SW CAK 25 ESE MTO MKC 20 SW PNC TCC 35 WSW ROW 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 35 ESE PRC 40 ENE INW 35 SE U17 30 WSW 4HV 35 S EVW 30 WNW RKS 50 NNW LAR 40 NNW DGW 25 ENE SHR 20 WSW MLS 25 WSW GDV 45 WSW P24 45 NE JMS 50 NNW AXN 40 E STC 25 NNW AUW 35 N TVC 40 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LRD 10 W ALI 20 ESE VCT 20 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15 NW ILM 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION... LOW-LEVEL SSELY FLOW IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED/...ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ACROSS PARTS OF SERN WY/ERN CO...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW INDICATED JUST E OF CYS. THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 700 MB SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP HOWEVER...MODEST /20 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER A BROADER PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP N OF SURFACE FRONT -- AND THUS REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. THOUGH A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS...LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ...MID MO VALLEY EWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND EWD INTO NRN LOWER MI...INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A ZONE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF VORT MAX ALOFT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION -- AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH WEAK/SMALL-SCALE BOW OVER CENTRAL WI ATTM. THESE AREAS OF GREATER CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SUGGEST A LOCALLY-ENHANCED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL/WIND...AND THUS WILL ADD A SMALL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SLOW DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/CONVECTION WEAKENS. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 23:44:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 18:44:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509080101.j8811lWn030069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080059 SWODY1 SPC AC 080058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CDR 30 ENE RAP 20 SSE MBG 50 SW ABR 9V9 50 ENE CDR 40 W IML 30 ENE LAA 15 NNW LHX 20 NNW BFF 50 NW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 ESE PRC 40 ENE INW 35 SE U17 30 WSW 4HV 35 S EVW 30 WNW RKS 50 NNW LAR 25 NNE DGW 10 ENE 81V 55 SSE GDV 35 E SDY 15 ESE MOT 10 W DVL 40 NNE FAR 30 E AXN 20 NNE MKT 25 WSW ALO 10 SSE DSM 15 SE OMA 40 NW OFK 40 E ANW 20 SE MHN MCK 25 WSW RSL 45 SE DDC TCC 35 WSW ROW 10 WNW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PBG 35 W SYR 10 SSW CAK 10 NE DNV 30 SW MMO 15 W MKE 50 NW MBL 40 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15 NW ILM 20 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LRD 10 W ALI 20 ESE VCT 20 SW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SRN BLACK HILLS OF SD...INTO SERN CO. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE PROPAGATING SHARPLY SWD ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...SLY INFLOW MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFT EFFICIENCY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE. ...ERN DAKOTAS... STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES ON 00Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THAT IS AIDING BANDED MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS SRN SD INTO NRN SD. A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS INTO INITIATION REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCEL ASCENT WILL REMAIN ROOTED NEAR 800MB...YET STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME HAIL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS THUS PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ...FL... TROPICAL SYSTEM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z WITH CENTER OF CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 100 ENE OF MLB. ALTHOUGH OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ROTATING INLAND...IT APPEARS ANY MEANINGFUL TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE MAINLAND THIS PERIOD. REF NHC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON OPHELIA. ..DARROW.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 04:53:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 23:53:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509080610.j886A8t3022234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080607 SWODY1 SPC AC 080605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SUX 30 W RWF 30 S STC 25 WNW EAU 15 NE VOK 10 S MSN 25 E MLI 30 NW BRL 10 SSW DSM 45 NE OMA 30 NNE SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CDR 45 ESE 81V 45 WNW Y22 20 W BIS 35 WSW JMS ABR 30 SSW 9V9 45 NNW MHN 35 W CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 30 NW VCT 25 NW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 10 WSW IGM 30 WNW SGU 35 WNW U24 45 W RKS 30 E RIW 40 WSW GCC 30 W MLS 35 E 3HT 35 S 27U 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 15 NE RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR ...CONT... 30 NNE ELO 50 WSW IWD 15 W AUW 40 NNW BEH 40 NE MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 40 ENE MKL 20 NNW ARG 10 NNE OJC 15 WSW HSI 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 15 E CAO 45 SW TCC 30 SE ONM 35 SE DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY REGION... EARLY MORNING MCS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN MN INTO ERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE ESEWD WITHIN MEAN FLOW TOWARD PORTIONS OF SRN WI/NRN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM NERN MO INTO NWRN IL AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. WHETHER AN ARTIFACT OF EARLY MORNING DEEP CONVECTION...OR A LARGER SCALE DISTURBANCE ALOFT...IT APPEARS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THIS CLUSTER AS IT ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM. IT APPEARS AN UPWARD EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGER STORM CLUSTER. ...DAKOTAS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IT APPEARS THE BLACK HILLS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR 00Z AS SFC BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD AFTER DARK AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...IN EXCESS OF 40KT...OVER CNTRL SD. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME LARGE SCALE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIKLIHOOD OF CONVECTION LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG VEERING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER YIELDING SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 35-50KT. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 11:29:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 06:29:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509081246.j88CkZJf017282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081243 SWODY1 SPC AC 081242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FSD 10 NNE ATY RWF 30 SSW LSE 45 WSW RFD SPI 35 S UIN IRK 45 W DSM SUX 30 NW FSD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 50 WSW IWD 15 W AUW 25 SW MKG 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 30 SW CKV 35 SSE POF 20 NNE UMN 20 ENE ICT 35 NW HUT 25 SW EAR 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 15 E CAO 45 SW TCC 15 N ALM 15 NW ELP ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 10 WSW IGM 30 WNW SGU 35 WNW U24 10 SSW EVW 10 WSW RIW 35 W GCC 30 W MLS 35 E 3HT 35 S 27U 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 15 NE RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 30 NW VCT 25 NW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45 ENE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MN/IA TODAY...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF TROUGH FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN/NORTHERN IA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL IA. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS MAY REMAIN SEVERE INTO THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO CENTRAL IL. ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW /AOA 30KT/ FROM THE BLACK HILLS NORTHWARD. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK. NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES SINCE ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. ..HART/GUYER.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 15:11:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 10:11:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509081628.j88GSD7W012867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081622 SWODY1 SPC AC 081620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E SUX 25 WNW MCW 30 ENE MCW 45 NNW DBQ 45 NW LAF 25 S MTO 35 NW ALN 35 WSW P35 35 ESE OMA 40 E SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW GBN 10 WSW IGM 35 ENE P38 25 NE DPG 40 SE MLD 45 N BPI 15 NNE WRL 40 SSE BIL 40 ESE LVM 35 S 27U 90 SSE BNO 40 ESE TVL 35 S TVL 55 S EKA ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 25 NNW BKE 40 SW MSO 50 SW HVR 65 N OLF ...CONT... 30 ESE RRT 40 S DLH 15 W AUW 25 SW MKG MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 35 NE HOP 35 ESE POF 40 ESE SGF 35 SSW OJC 20 ENE MHK 40 SSW EAR 20 SSW MCK 30 N LAA 15 E CAO 65 SW TCC 25 ESE TCS 30 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT GLS ...CONT... 15 SW CTY 35 SE VLD 40 NE AYS 35 E SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA INTO NERN MO/CENTRAL IL... ...IA INTO NERN MO/IL... LINEAR MCS NOW OVER NWRN IA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA THIS AFTERNOON /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2163/...AND MAY BE SUSTAINED INTO CENTRAL IL/NERN MO LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SWRN MN THIS MORNING. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS WWD FROM LAKE ERIE TO A LOW CENTER OVER ERN IL AND THEN NWWD INTO NWRN IA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ABOVE MENTIONED MCS TODAY. AIR MASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATTM AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...PARTLY DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES HEAT THROUGH THE 70S/LOWER 80S WITHIN WARM SECTOR...CAPPING WILL ERODE AND STORMS SHOULD ROOT INTO A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BY THE MID AFTERNOON AND SYSTEM MAY TURN MORE SEWD AND STRADDLE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. MODELS FORECAST WSWLY LLJ WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA TODAY...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BACK-BUILD INTO CENTRAL/ERN IA IN WAKE OF LEADING ACTIVITY. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT. NOT ONLY WILL THIS SUSTAIN ORGANIZED LINE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ATOP THE COLD POOL AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP LATER TODAY. ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH LACK OF LLJ INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ...NRN PLAINS... WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WRN SD TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE ND-SD BORDER AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THESE FEATURES...REGION WILL REMAIN IN A SUBSIDENT REGIME AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. THEREFORE...ANY ENSUING DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED ...THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. AFTER DARK...SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD AND MAY SUPPORT INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER ERN ND/FAR NWRN MN LATER TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 18:47:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 13:47:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509082004.j88K4W95002395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082001 SWODY1 SPC AC 081959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW LWD 15 WNW DSM 25 NNE DSM 45 SSW ALO 15 NW CID 15 NE MLI 10 SE CMI 30 SSE MTO 10 NNW SLO 35 NNE COU 25 SW P35 35 NW LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE RRT 40 S DLH 15 W AUW 25 SW MKG MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 35 NE HOP 35 ESE POF 40 ESE SGF 35 SSW OJC 20 ENE MHK 40 SSW EAR 20 SSW MCK 30 N LAA 15 E CAO 65 SW TCC 25 ESE TCS 30 SSW DMN ...CONT... 60 SW GBN 10 WSW IGM 35 ENE P38 25 NE DPG 40 SE MLD 45 N BPI 15 NNE WRL 40 SSE BIL 40 ESE LVM 35 S 27U 90 SSE BNO 35 ESE TVL 65 SSE TVL 45 E SAC SAC 40 W SAC 20 NW SFO ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 25 NNW BKE 40 SW MSO 50 SW HVR 65 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 65 WSW MIA 35 S AGR 25 NE GNV 35 NW SSI 35 E SAV ...CONT... 65 W COT GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS VLY... ...MID MS VLY... LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO /HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS AOA 70 KTS/ APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES SEWD AROUND 40 KTS. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A BOUNDARY SEWD FROM MCV OVER POWESHIEK COUNTY IA INTO CNTRL IL. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTN TO THE S OF THE FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. GIVEN THAT THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES HAVE BEEN LARGELY POSITIONED JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FORWARD PROPAGATION HAS BEEN DOMINATE WITH SEVERE WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SE TO CARRY A SEVERE THREAT. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REPOSITION WWD OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. BUT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE MCV AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM...A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT MIGHT EXTEND WELL SE INTO PARTS OF NERN MO AND CNTRL IL THROUGH THE EVENING. ...CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A BROAD PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARCING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ISOLD HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE BRIEFLY ROOTED INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG/ ACROSS NWRN NEB. THOUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGING/WARMING ARE TAKING PLACE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS...OTHER TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM THE HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION FROM SRN SD INTO NERN CO ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH. HERE... CONSIDERABLE HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY ERASE THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN A STORM. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS WILL BE ISOLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. LATER TONIGHT...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME EVOLVING ACROSS THE ERN DAKS AND NWRN MN. HERE...BANDS OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL. ..RACY.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 23:47:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 18:47:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509090105.j89157YN020779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090102 SWODY1 SPC AC 090101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE SAC 30 NW RBL 30 S MFR 70 NNW 4LW 50 SSW BNO 65 NW WMC 20 SSE RNO 55 NNE SAC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE RRT 40 NNW BRD 30 SSE RWF 20 WNW SUX 15 ENE MCK 25 NNW LAA 20 NE CAO 55 SW TCC 35 ESE TCS 40 S DMN ...CONT... 60 SW GBN 10 WSW IGM 35 ENE P38 25 NE DPG 40 SE MLD 45 N BPI 15 NNE WRL 35 N 81V 40 SSW DIK 20 SSE P24 40 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 65 WSW MIA 35 S AGR 25 NE GNV 35 NW SSI 35 E SAV ...CONT... 15 E BOS 20 SW POU 15 NNW HTS 25 N HOP 45 NW POF 45 N SZL 25 N LWD 50 NE DSM 30 NE CID 10 NE MMO 10 SW AZO 15 SSW MTC ...CONT... 65 W COT GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEB/SD... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION DEPICT A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 550MB. THIS PROVED FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN NEB INTO EXTREME SCNTRL SD. HOWEVER...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS TO HAVE ADVERSELY AFFECTED THESE UPDRAFTS AND ONLY WEAK REMNANTS REMAIN...DRIFTING NEWD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN TSTM CARCASSES. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LLJ WILL INCREASE AIDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPDRAFT RECOVERY AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS PARCELS BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS...WARM ADVECTION COULD AID A FEW STRONG STORMS AS THEY SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD AFTER DARK. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT. ...IL/OH VALLEY... IA/IL MCS HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE FROM CNTRL IND INTO NERN OH. ILN/PIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...HARDLY SUPPORTIVE OF ANY MEANINGFUL SEVERE THREAT. OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL PROVE TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 06:04:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 01:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509090722.j897MtWn008459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090601 SWODY1 SPC AC 090559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS ...CONT... 30 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ANJ 60 NNW EAU 20 NNW BKX 25 SSW ANW 15 N CAO 4CR 15 NNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 65 SE U31 40 SE NFL RNO 35 SSW SVE 55 NW SVE 60 ESE 4LW 10 NE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DBQ 10 NE MMO 45 NNE LAF 30 SW FDY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 30 W CSV 50 NE MKL 55 NW POF 25 WSW COU 10 SSE IRK 30 NE OTM 25 SSE DBQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...4-CORNERS REGION... LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR SFO...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE INLAND DURING THE DAY AS UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS UT. OVER THE LAST 24-48 HRS...DEEP LAYER TRAJECTORIES HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING MOISTURE ACROSS NRN MEXICO...INTO THE DESERT SW AND 4-CORNERS REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUS AND PHX INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE STEADILY INCREASED...WITH VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. IT APPEARS SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY PLUME BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TYPICAL STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOULD PROVE HELPFUL IN THIS DECISION PROCESS. GREATEST SEVERE RISKS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN LESS VEERING ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WRN ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THURSDAY EVENING EXHIBITED A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH QUITE WARM SFC TEMPERATURES. THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY NOT PROVE THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH LEE CYCLONE OVER MT. IT APPEARS SFC HEATING WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY SERVING AS AN INITIATING ZONE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM...STRENGTHENING CAP BUT INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/ARROWHEAD OF MN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...CAP WILL PROVE STRONGER THAN FORECAST THUS FORCING PARCEL LIFT TO SUCH A LEVEL THAT INSTABILITY WILL PROVE LACKING FOR ANY MEANINGFUL STORMS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. ..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 11:44:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 06:44:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509091302.j89D2RPs024162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091259 SWODY1 SPC AC 091258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 55 S DLH 10 NNE STC 50 SE FAR 45 SE JMS 50 SSW DVL 60 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PRC 15 E CDC 50 NE U24 30 NW VEL 40 WSW MTJ 55 ENE SOW 65 ENE PHX 20 N PRC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS ...CONT... 20 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ANJ 30 ENE GRB 25 ENE RST 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 65 SE U31 40 SE NFL RNO 35 SSW SVE 55 NW SVE 60 ESE 4LW 10 NE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DBQ 10 NE MMO 45 NNE LAF 30 SW FDY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 30 W CSV 50 NE MKL 55 NW POF 25 WSW COU 10 SSE IRK 30 NE OTM 25 SSE DBQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE PERSISTS IN THE E AND TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE FAR W. UPR LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD SETTLE SE INTO THE NWRN U.S. TODAY AS UPR LOW ATTM NEAR SFO EJECTS NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN. FARTHER E...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES NOW OVER UT AND ERN WY EXPECTED TO LIFT RESPECTIVELY NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS...AND ENE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... IMPULSE EXITING WY THIS MORNING WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT CROSSING THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE INFLOW /PWS AOA ONE INCH/...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ KT WLY FLOW AT 500 MB...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL FROM ERN ND INTO THE NRN HALF OF MN. THIS THREAT SHOULD EDGE E/NE WITH TIME AND DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ MOVE BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SIMILAR WARM ADVECTION STORMS MAY FORM OVER FAR NERN ND/NRN NM TONIGHT AS LLJ DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS AND UPSTREAM IMPULSE BEGINS TO APPROACH REGION. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER... EXPECT THAT WARMER 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES AND BACKED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGH. RESULTING CAP SHOULD SHUNT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. ...AZ/UT/WRN CO/WRN NM... SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF UT/AZ AND CO/NW NM LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPR LOW NOW NEAR SFO CONTINUES E ACROSS NV TODAY...AND THEN TURNS MORE NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST OBSERVED PW/RAOB DATA INDICATE THAT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO REGION FROM NRN MEXICO. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ABOVE ONE INCH IN SRN AZ...AND COULD RISE TO NEARLY AN INCH OVER NRN AZ AND ERN UT LATER TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALSO HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY AT FGZ RELATIVE TO LAST EVENING. STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY IN WAKE OF ERN UT UPR DISTURBANCE. GIVEN EXISTING STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT...SETUP MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. WITH DEEP SSWLY SHEAR LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO AOA 40 KTS AHEAD OF CA/NV TROUGH...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS/CLUSTERS THAT POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BACKED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AND REDUCED DEEP SHEAR ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLAINS RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. BUT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD... HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK IN WAKE OF UPR IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE REGION. LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN MT. SFC HEATING MAY ALLOW PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY SERVING AS AN INITIATING ZONE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. BUT EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ATTM. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 15:01:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 10:01:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509091618.j89GIxvS001759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091603 SWODY1 SPC AC 091601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW CMX 55 WSW IWD 15 SE BRD 50 SE FAR 50 SE JMS 30 NNE MBG 35 NW MBG 20 WSW BIS 40 SW DVL 70 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SOW 50 E PHX 10 NW PRC 55 S SGU MLF 55 WNW PUC 30 NW VEL 40 NE VEL 35 WSW CAG 15 SSE CEZ 50 ENE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC 25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 55 SW ELY 55 SE U31 35 NW TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 45 SW TVL 60 ESE RBL 40 NW SVE 50 ESE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CTY 10 NNE SSI ...CONT... 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PSK 20 S JKL 40 S PAH 50 N POF 45 SSW UIN 25 NW UIN 35 ESE BRL 20 WSW BMI 20 SE DNV 30 NW ZZV 10 NW LBE 25 NNW HGR 25 E MRB 10 NW CHO 15 NNE PSK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND AND NRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO NRN/CENTRAL AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS SWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW...RESULTING IN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BEING EJECTED NEWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. WEAKER SHORT WAVES ARE ALSO NOTED OVER ERN WY AND CENTRAL ND. FARTHER EAST...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM SRN MT/SD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. ...ND/NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION... ELEVATED STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ENEWD FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION BEST IDENTIFIED NEAR 850 MB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM EXHIBITED BY AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM LAYER BASED NEAR 850 MB...AND THIS VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER... PERSISTENT LIFT ABOVE THE CAP MAY ALLOW ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/ERN ND EWD AND NRN MN INTO THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATES MOST STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE HAD SHORT-LIVED INTENSE UPDRAFTS ALTHOUGH RECENT ACTIVITY NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFT CHARACTERISTICS. THREAT FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND NRN MN...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NWRN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD IN ADVANCE OF ERN WY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THESE MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF ND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT IF THESE STORMS CAN SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TOWARD LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS ERN PARTS OF DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND PERSIST...THEY MAY ALSO POSE THREAT FOR ELEVATED HAIL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE ERN WY SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. ...UT/NRN AZ REGION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EWD...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. STRONG SSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT FGZ/SLC/GJT INDICATE PRESENCE OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 0.75 IN AND LOWER LEVEL MIXING RATIOS AOA 8 G/KG...SUGGESTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND ADVANCING MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL TO DEVELOP...MAINLY FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..WEISS/BANACOS.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 18:47:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 13:47:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509092005.j89K5mfW029047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092002 SWODY1 SPC AC 092000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW CMX 55 WSW IWD 15 SE BRD 50 SE FAR 35 S GFK 10 ENE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SOW 20 S PHX 55 NW GBN 55 S SGU 35 W OGD 25 NE OGD 50 ENE EVW 40 NE VEL 35 WSW CAG 15 SSE CEZ 50 ENE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC 25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 55 SW ELY 55 SE U31 35 NW TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 45 SW TVL 60 ESE RBL 40 NW SVE 50 ESE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PSK 20 S JKL 40 S PAH 50 N POF 45 SSW UIN 25 NW UIN 35 ESE BRL 20 WSW BMI 20 SE DNV 30 NW ZZV 10 NW LBE 25 NNW HGR 25 E MRB 10 NW CHO 15 NNE PSK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN SWD INTO AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...GREAT BASIN SWD INTO THE AZ DESERTS... TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED RATHER EARLY TODAY AS A BAND OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN NV UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPREAD EWD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT. GOES SOUNDER CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT OF 1-1.5 INCHES ADVECTING NWD FROM THE AZ DESERTS NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN UT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THIS UPPER IMPULSE. TYPICALLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WAS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES FROM NRN AZ INTO CNTRL/ERN UT...SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TSTMS. AS 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM KFLG/KSLC/KPHX SUGGEST...STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS MOSTLY NRN/CNTRL AZ INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN WHERE 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOTED. CONSEQUENTLY...TSTMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO AS THEY MOVE TOWARD SWRN WY AND WRN CO LATER THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE AZ DESERTS LATER THIS AFTN. TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER THIS AFTN. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN FARTHER N...BUT STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... PLAN-VIEW VWP AND OBJECTIVELY DERIVED THERMAL ADVECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY EWD INTO NRN MN. THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE EDGE OF A STRONG CAP COVERING THE NRN PLAINS AND PARCELS REACHING THE LFC EXHIBIT MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE AND HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF THE SSWLY LLJ INTO THIS REGIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER NRN MN...AND TRACK ESEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR OR NWRN WI DURING THE NIGHT. FARTHER W...SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS THE DAKS. BUT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH NRN SD WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SERN ND AND EXTREME NERN SD HAS BECOME VERY WARM. THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY EITHER DEVELOP AND/OR ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IF HEATING/LARGE SCALE ASCENT CAN ERODE THE CINH SUFFICIENTLY LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. IF AN UPDRAFT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT GIVEN THE 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..RACY.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 23:50:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 18:50:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509100108.j8A18EZE018882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100105 SWODY1 SPC AC 100103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 45 WSW GCN 20 S CDC 60 NNE P38 75 SW ELY TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 35 ENE SAC 25 E RBL 45 ESE MHS 25 SSE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK ...CONT... 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC 25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... 00Z SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF UPPER MAIN TROUGH CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO INTO ERN AZ. IT APPEARS A LEAD DISTURBANCE IS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WITH BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED AT BOTH GJT AND SLC. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF LEAD CONVECTION ACROSS CO. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ AS SWLY FLOW DEEPENS ALONG SRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SRN ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD NM BORDER. ERN UT/WRN CO SHOULD HAVE LITTLE SEVERE THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL NOT MATERIALIZE. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL DRYING CERTAINLY MINIMIZES OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY YET ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOCUSED LLJ ACROSS ERN SD INTO NRN MN WILL FAVOR PARCEL ASCENT ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 04:36:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 23:36:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509100554.j8A5sCKQ014227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100550 SWODY1 SPC AC 100548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 NNW PHX 35 E GCN 15 SSW U17 40 NNE 4BL 20 WSW GUC 45 WSW PUB 20 NNE RTN 45 ESE CVS LBB ABI 45 E CLL 15 ESE BPT ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 20 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ESE OSC 15 N PLN 20 NNE MQT 70 N IWD DLH 30 NE RWF 45 N BUB 30 S VTN 25 SSW PHP 40 ESE 81V 50 NW CPR 45 SSW BPI 45 ENE ENV 35 N U31 10 WNW RNO 40 S RBL 45 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN EJECTING DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD NWD QUICKLY WITH GREATEST REGION OF ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE SUPPRESSIVE CAP NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MAINLY NRN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO ONTARIO AS WARM FRONT RETREATS TOWARD JAMES BAY. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS WILL NEED MINIMAL FORCING TO REACH THEIR LFC. HOWEVER...VEERING PROFILES AND NWD SHIFT OF DEEP ASCENT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS...PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NERN MT OR NWRN ND. IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE NEAR REGION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...A FEW UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT STRETCHING FROM SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...NEWD INTO MANITOBA. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 11:37:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 06:37:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509101255.j8ACtLV2014813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101252 SWODY1 SPC AC 101250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ESE OSC 30 NW MBS 15 NNW MBL 20 S MQT DLH 30 NE RWF 45 N BUB 30 S VTN 25 SSW PHP 40 ESE 81V 50 NW CPR 45 SSW BPI 45 WSW DPG 30 ESE U31 25 SSE RNO 40 S RBL 45 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 NNW PHX 35 E GCN 15 SSW U17 40 NNE 4BL 20 WSW GUC 45 WSW PUB 20 NNE RTN 45 ESE CVS LBB ABI 45 E CLL 15 ESE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEP UPR LOW NOW OVER WA SETTLES S INTO ORE...AND CLOSED ANTICYCLONE EVOLVES OVER THE LWR TN VLY. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS OVER UT/AZ YESTERDAY IS NOW ENTERING WRN CO/SW WY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE INTO MANITOBA BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND BECOME ABSORBED IN FAST SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY TO UPR GRT LKS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CO/WY IMPULSE CONTINUING TO DAMPEN AS IT LIFTS NNE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE WRN DAKOTAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO SRN MANITOBA BY 00Z SUNDAY. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SERVE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN EXISTING CAP AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVR THE NRN PLNS. WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM CO/WY DISTURBANCE IS SUPPORTING SWATH OF HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WRN SD ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE NNE INTO ND BY MIDDAY...AND INTO NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STRENGTHENING/UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS. OTHER WARM ADVECTION STORMS ARE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY ESSENTIALLY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF AMPLIFYING TN VLY RIDGE...AND AFTER MIDDAY LIKELY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO ONTARIO. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING UPR IMPULSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARCELS WILL NEED MINIMAL FORCING TO REACH THE LFC. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL/ LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. BUT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS...AND FROM SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...NEWD INTO MANITOBA. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 15:07:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 10:07:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509101625.j8AGPlOp000877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101614 SWODY1 SPC AC 101612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 40 SE PHX 30 S INW 50 W 4SL 25 NNE 4SL 50 NNW LVS 45 SE RTN 35 NW AMA 55 NNW CDS 10 S CDS 20 W ABI 35 SSW ABI 25 SW BWD 45 S SEP 15 NW ACT 50 SW TYR LFK BPT ...CONT... 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E APN 30 S HTL 40 SSW MBL 10 NNE MKE 25 NNW CGX 30 N MMO 40 WSW RFD 20 ENE LNR 25 ENE AUW 25 NE RHI 15 NNE IWD 10 W DLH 20 SW BRD 25 NNE HON 20 NW PIR 35 SE Y22 30 NE REJ 40 WSW REJ 35 ESE BPI 40 W DPG 30 ESE U31 25 SSE RNO 50 ENE UKI 50 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION SETTLES SLOWLY SWD AND DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SRN CANADA BY THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...REACHING A NWRN MN/CENTRAL SD/WRN NEB LINE BY 11/12Z. ...NRN PLAINS... A BAND OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL ND ATTM...IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BIS AND ABR INDICATE PRESENCE OF PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB. THIS CAP MAY STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING HIGH PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS...LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. ...NRN LAKE MI/NRN LOWER MI AREA... AN ELEVATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING SEWD FROM UPPER MI INTO NRN LAKE MI ON THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CENTERED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON GRB SOUNDING ABOVE 700 MB ARE ENHANCING UPWARD PARCEL ACCELERATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REESTABLISHES FARTHER WEST OVER MN AND WARM ADVECTION FORCING WEAKENS OVER THE LAKE MI/LOWER MI REGION. ...SRN TX... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNEWD FROM THE BIG BEND REGION TOWARD PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...AND CU FIELD IS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 18:42:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 13:42:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509102000.j8AK02SG023930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101957 SWODY1 SPC AC 101955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 40 SE PHX 30 S INW 15 SSW GUP 25 ENE ONM 25 W 4CR 60 WSW TCC 35 SW DHT 30 NNW GLD 30 W LBF 35 NNE LBF BBW 20 NNW HLC 25 N LBL 60 E AMA 20 S BGS 40 W SJT 35 SSE SJT 50 NE JCT 45 SE BWD 25 WNW ACT 20 NNW ACT 45 NE ACT 25 SW TYR 20 NE LFK 15 SE BPT ...CONT... 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ISN 20 SSE SDY 45 NNE SHR 40 WSW WRL 45 NNE EVW 45 WSW DPG 40 ESE U31 10 NNW TVL 40 SSW RBL 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 40 SE GFK 45 WNW FAR 40 NW JMS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GRTLKS REGION... OVERNIGHT MCS THAT TRACKED SSEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND INTO NWRN LWR MI HAS DIMINISHED TO A FEW SHOWERS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN LWR/LAKE MI DURING THE REST OF THE AFTN/EVENING. STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES OVER WI/LK MI AREA WHERE TRAILING PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW EXISTS. BUT...WARM AIR ALOFT WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NEWD TOWARD THE GRTLKS REGION AND SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO SURFACE-BASED INITIATION ACROSS ERN WI. THUS... SEVERE/GENERAL TSTM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED. ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FROM ERN MT INTO CNTRL ND. AN ELEVATED BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY TRANSLATE NEWD IN THE WARM CONVEYER AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO ADJACENT CANADA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF THE LEE-TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WRN ND/CNTRL SD IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL FORM VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF CAP OVER THE REGION. UPSTREAM...A BAND OF TSTMS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT VCNTY THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS NERN MT WHERE A PEAK WIND GUST TO 47 KTS WAS OBSERVED AT KGGW AT 1832Z. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SASK-MT BORDER. ...S TX... TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA AND BENEATH THE VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING NWD ALONG THE COAHUILA/TX BORDER. THOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY TSTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUB-5 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 23:26:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 18:26:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509110044.j8B0i0UF022585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110042 SWODY1 SPC AC 110040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 20 WSW GDV 25 WNW SHR 15 NW BPI 35 NW DPG 40 ESE U31 10 NNW TVL 40 SSW RBL 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 35 NW TUS 50 N TUS 55 SE SOW 20 WNW 4CR 25 WNW CVS 25 NW LBB 60 NE BGS 20 ESE ABI 30 SSE FTW 50 WSW TYR 35 WSW LFK 10 W GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW FMY 20 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WA... A LARGE WRN US UPPER-TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THE UPPER-LOW CENTER IS LOCATED OVER WA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LOW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -22 C WHICH IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A BRIEF HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ELSEWHERE...SW FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE CNTRL US WITH AN UPPER-RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US. THIS IS RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE US WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SRN AND WRN TX WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THAT REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 04:43:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 23:43:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509110601.j8B61KKh019148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110558 SWODY1 SPC AC 110557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 25 SE AXN 30 SW BKX 40 NNE VTN 25 SE PHP 40 WSW MBG 25 S BIS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 40 SE RAP 50 ESE REJ 10 WSW Y22 45 S P24 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW HQM 30 SSW GEG 25 NNE HLN 15 SSW SHR 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND...ENOUGH ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD REACHING ERN ND AND CNTRL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. NAM/NAMKF AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS IN THE EVENING WITH A STORM COMPLEX SPREADING NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN MN OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 7.0 C/KM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS FALLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTION AND MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE. ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS HURRICANE OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF SC THROUGH TODAY WITH A SLIGHT NWWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A FEW RAINBANDS CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL EXCEED 40 KT WITH MUCAPE VALUES REACHING NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING CELLS AS RAINBANDS NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN ATTM...IF STORMS CAN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COAST...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 11:32:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 06:32:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509111250.j8BCoZbN005127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111248 SWODY1 SPC AC 111246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 35 WSW MBG 55 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 10 WSW Y22 45 S P24 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 15 E CNK 15 SSW ICT 15 NE OKC 20 SSW ADM 30 ESE DAL 45 SW LFK 25 SW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40 ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DEEP WRN U.S. TROUGH BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SPEED MAX NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN LIFTS NE ACROSS ID/WY. CONTINUED NE MOTION OF THE IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING OF EXISTING MAIN UPR CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ORE/NRN CA...AND STRENGTHENING OF CENTER NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/SRN MANITOBA. FARTHER E...AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN CLOSED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LWR OH/TN VLYS...AND KEEP HRCN OPHELIA MORE OR LESS STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD OFF THE CAROLINA CST. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE WHICH EJECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLNS ON SATURDAY NOW EXTENDS FROM WRN ONTARIO SW ACROSS ERN ND INTO CNTRL SD/WRN NEB. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AND MAY EVEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRESS...BEFORE RESUMING ITS E/SE MOTION TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS ID/WY IMPULSE CONTINUES NE INTO CANADA. ...CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND MN... MODERATE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY... ESPECIALLY W OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL /ERN NEB NNE INTO MN. MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF STALLING FRONT...WITH AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. COUPLED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ALREADY IN PLACE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MLCAPE WILL BE AOA 1500 J/KG OVER THE ERN DAKS BY AFTERNOON. CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BY EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF ID/WY IMPULSE WILL INDUCE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN PLNS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN ND BY NIGHTFALL. WITH DEEP SSWLY SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS...ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A SUSTAINED BAND...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR BOTH HAIL AND HIGH WIND. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WIND FIELD...INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SRN PLNS...AND LINEAR FORCING OF FRONT ALL SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO BACK-BUILDING QUASI-LINEAR MCS TONIGHT. THIS MAY EXTEND A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL SSW INTO PARTS OF SD AND SW MN EARLY MONDAY. ...NC/SC CST... LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE TPC...AND SATELLITE AND SURFACE TRENDS /I.E. LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION NOW IN PROGRESS OFF THE MD/VA/NRN NC CST/...SUGGEST THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN OPHELIA LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 15:23:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 10:23:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509111641.j8BGf1aL021251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111628 SWODY1 SPC AC 111626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 35 WSW MBG 55 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 65 SW SOW 25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 25 WSW Y22 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 150 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 15 E CNK 15 SSW ICT 15 NE OKC 20 SSW ADM 30 ESE DAL 45 SW LFK 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40 ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JAX 40 NE AYS 50 WNW CHS 35 WNW ILM HSE ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. AIR MASS REMAINS DRY THIS MORNING WITH VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ON ABR AND BIS SOUNDINGS AT 12Z. HOWEVER...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT NNEWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE U.S. WILL SUSTAIN SSWLY LLJ OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RICHER H85 MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...BOOSTING SURFACE DEW POINTS AS MOISTURE MIXES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE AS FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS ND LATE IN THE DAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SURFACE BASED INTO ERN ND/NERN SD BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH STORMS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND SPREADING INTO WRN MN. EARLY ON...STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A DUEL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...SRN FL... MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER FL TODAY. THOUGH WINDS REMAIN VERY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...UNIFORM WLY COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SHIFT WELL INLAND. RESULTANT SEA BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS WITHIN A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD THUS SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN PULSE-TYPE AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 18:37:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 13:37:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509111954.j8BJswKk011208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111952 SWODY1 SPC AC 111951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 30 ENE Y22 70 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 25 SE 4SL 30 NNW EHA 25 E GLD 30 NE IML 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 30 SSW DIK 50 N MOT ...CONT... 150 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 15 E CNK 45 NNE PNC 45 SSW TUL 30 WSW MLC 40 NNE ACT 45 SW LFK 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40 ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS INTO NRN/WRN MN... ...CNTRL/ERN DAKS INTO WRN/NRN MN... MESOANALYSIS SERIES SHOWS THAT THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS HAS RETREATED THIS AFTN AND EXTENDS FROM ERN/CNTRL ND SWWD TO THE BLACK HILLS VCNTY. GPS/SATL DERIVED PWATS HAVE SHOWN A RAPID ADVECTION OF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION AND MAY LARGELY EXPLAIN THE EXISTENCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS LIFTING NWD INTO NWRN MN AT MID-AFTN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CNTRL ND ATOP THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SWRN SASK. ADVECTION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NRN PLAINS. BUT...RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG...EVEN WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90F. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SASK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS MOVE/SPREAD EWD...GRAZING NRN EDGES OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ND AND PARTS OF NERN SD THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN/WRN MN OVERNIGHT. AVAILABILITY OF 40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A MEAN WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A BROAD BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WRN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MCS IS APT TO BACKBUILD SWWD INTO THE STRONGER LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES LATER TONIGHT ACROSS ERN SD AND PARTS OF WRN MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY SUSTAIN THREATS FOR HAIL/ WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NRN PARTS OF THE MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE INSTABILITY/LLJ. ...SRN FL... WCOAST SEABREEZE SHOULD COLLIDE WITH THE ECOAST SEABREEZE LATER THIS AFTN SOMEWHERE OVER S FL. NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARIES AND COULD BECOME STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE. AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD RESULT. ..RACY.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 23:33:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 18:33:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509120051.j8C0pYdH009338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120049 SWODY1 SPC AC 120048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 50 E BRD 30 N YKN 45 SSW MHE 15 SSW 9V9 45 NE PIR 20 SSE DVL 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 20 E PDT 45 SSW 3DU 45 NW COD 15 E WRL 50 SW GCC 30 ESE 81V 30 SE REJ Y22 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE APN 25 SW PLN 40 NNW GRB 25 NW LSE 35 N OMA 20 SW BIE 25 SSW MHK 10 N BVO 25 WNW MKO 10 WSW DUA 25 E SEP 25 SSW TPL 45 ESE AUS 30 WSW GLS ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG 40 W SVC 20 E GNT 45 ESE DRO 45 NNE DRO 40 SE CNY 30 SW P38 55 N NID 25 NE FAT 20 NNE SAC 30 NE UKI 55 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BHB 35 NNW BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...ND/SD/MN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NWRN STATES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH BUT ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY HELP ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THE CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE ERN DAKOTAS AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS MODELS ALL INITIATE STORMS IN THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVERNIGHT SPREADING EWD INTO WRN MN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SE ND/ERN SD AND ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF MN. IN ADDITION...THE ABERDEEN 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE FASTER AND MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN AND NRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS. THE STORM COMPLEX IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NNEWD ACROSS WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 04:40:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 23:40:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509120558.j8C5wc9U012520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120556 SWODY1 SPC AC 120555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW ANJ 35 E ALO 45 SE OMA 35 ESE GRI 35 SSE MHN 15 SSW DGW 25 NW CPR 55 ESE WRL 45 WSW GCC 55 SSE Y22 45 ESE JMS 40 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 35 WNW LFK 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP 45 NNW ONM 15 S 4SL 25 WSW EHA 20 ESE GLD 45 ENE AKO 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15 NNE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL PICK UP SPEED TODAY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS STORMS WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AND MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE IN SOME AREAS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ACROSS ERN NEB AND FAR SERN SD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH THE BEST SUPERCELL THREAT OVER SERN SD...ERN NEB AND NW IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS AND VARYING INSTABILITY SPATIALLY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MANY MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER SERN SD AND ERN NEB WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE GREATEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES CREATING CURVED HODOGRAPHS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE CLOSELY PARALLEL TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM NRN NEB ACROSS FAR SERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ...HIGH PLAINS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EWD QUICKLY INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ACCENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS SFC HEATING OCCURS...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND SWRN SD WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NRN NEB. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE LIFT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS INSTABILITY DROPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 11:48:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 06:48:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509121305.j8CD5oDn018466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121303 SWODY1 SPC AC 121301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ANW 30 NNE ANW 20 WNW MHE 35 W RWF 30 SSE FRM 15 SE OMA 20 SE GRI 40 S ANW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW ANJ 35 E ALO 30 NNE FNB 35 SSE HSI 35 SSE MHN 15 SSW DGW 25 NW CPR 55 ESE WRL 45 WSW GCC 55 SSE Y22 45 ESE JMS 40 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 10 NW HTL 35 NW MKG 15 NW MKE 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 35 WNW LFK 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP 45 NNW ONM 15 S 4SL 25 WSW EHA 20 ESE GLD 45 ENE AKO 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 40 S BZN 30 WSW BIL 15 E MLS 25 SSW P24 55 ESE MOT 70 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND ERN NEB...SE SD...SW MN AND NW IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY ATTM OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NRN GRT BASIN UPR LOW BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE ENEWD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REACH ERN WY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NE INTO ERN ND /NW MN EARLY TUESDAY. FARTHER S...SATELLITE AND PROFILER DATA DEPICT SEPARATE SRN BRANCH JET EXTENDING FROM SRN CA TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ABOVE SYSTEMS...UPR DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NEB/SD SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ACROSS MN LATER TODAY...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THAT REGION. IN THE EAST...WITH PATTERN REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT...ONLY A SLOW OVERALL NW DRIFT EXPECTED WITH HRCN OPHELIA. AT LWR LEVELS...FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED OVER THE N CNTRL STATES/WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY...NOW OVER WRN NEB...SHOULD LIFT NE ALONG FRONT THIS EVENING. ...NRN PTNS OF THE CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER NEB/SD...AND LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHICH OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLNS LATE YESTERDAY...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS ERN SD/MN..NRN WI AND WRN UPR MI TODAY. WHILE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SHORT LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE STORMS...STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING INVOF FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION OVER SE SD/NRN AND ERN NEB AND PERHAPS SW MN/NW IA. AT THE SAME TIME...MID AND UPR LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER AND INCREASE AS NOSE OF SRN STREAM JET BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. WITH 500 MB SPEEDS EXCEEDING 30 KTS...DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40 KTS. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S/...TIMING APPEARS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS... ESPECIALLY OVER NRN/ERN NEB AND SE SD. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS REGION SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM MORE LINEAR-FORCED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE IN WY. THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A CLUSTER AND CONTINUE E/NE INTO PARTS OF IA/MN THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER WRN NEB AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND SWRN SD. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG FRONT IN NW NEB. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED /MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS GENERALLY EWD LATER THIS EVENING. ...SRN HI PLNS... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND WILL EXIST IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT INVOF SRN EXTENTION OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS SW NEB AND WRN KS. STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML/SRN STREAM JET LIKELY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY. ...CSTL NC... THE OUTER FRINGE OF HRCN OPHELIA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CAPE FEAR/CAPE LOOKOUT AREAS TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY...GIVEN CURRENT TPC FORECAST. LOW LEVEL COOL/DRY ADVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY N AND W OF CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED. THUS...REGION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TSTMS GRAZING THE REGION ON THE FAR N/NW EDGE OF THE STORM. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 15:01:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 10:01:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509121619.j8CGJiR3029704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121611 SWODY1 SPC AC 121609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ANW 30 NNE ANW 20 WNW MHE 35 W RWF 30 SSE FRM 35 N OMA 25 N GRI 40 S ANW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW ANJ 25 S LSE 40 SE OMA 15 SW HSI 15 NNE LBF 55 N CYS DGW 55 NNW DGW 15 N 81V 65 SSE Y22 55 NNE ATY 25 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 35 NW MKG 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 15 S 4SL 40 NW CAO 45 SSW LAA 15 NW LAA 25 ESE LIC 35 NW LIC 35 SSW 4FC 20 N GJT 10 SW PUC 30 E DPG 35 SSW PIH 20 NNE MQM 40 S BZN 20 W MLS 20 E P24 70 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 35 N GNV 15 WNW SAV 30 N CHS 15 NNE EWN HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR ERN WY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED TODAY BY STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING NEWD TOWARD WY. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH ASSOCIATED 45-55 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS MAIN FEATURE...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUSTAINING AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN SD ACROSS MUCH OF MN THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM...WITH ACCOMPANYING ASCENT AND CONVECTION...WILL SHIFT NNEWD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN MN INTO SERN SD/N-CENTRAL NEB...WHILE STRONGER N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND SHIFTS EWD ACROSS ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG TRIPLE POINT OVER FAR WRN NEB/ERN WY LATER TODAY AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN NEB OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SERN SD/N-CENTRAL AND NERN NEB...AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR ERN WY/SWRN SD/WRN NEB INVOF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ...NERN SD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... INITIAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SYSTEM OVER ERN SD/MN SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG AND NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT...EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FEEDING THE STORMS FROM THE SW AND MODEST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY DEVELOP MID LEVEL ROTATION AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER NRN WI/SERN MN INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI WHERE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES AT GRB WERE QUITE WEAK THIS MORNING AND MAY BE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO THIS REGION. ...ERN SD/ERN NEB INTO SWRN MN/IA... MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER 21Z...DESPITE THE MORE LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF EJECTING SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF ERN/CENTRAL NEB AND WRN IA...WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE. IN ADDITION...COMBINATION OF HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE MAY INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL NEB/FAR SERN SD LATER TODAY...AS FORECAST BY THE RUC. THIS WILL INCREASE BOTH CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 21-00Z...SUGGESTING ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS /I.E. BETWEEN 35-45 KT/ WITHIN DEEP SWLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTING HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ...FAR ERN WY/WRN NEB INTO CENTRAL NEB/SRN SD... AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM. HOWEVER...STRONG ASCENT AND INCREASING ESELY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT MID 40F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY INTO FAR ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE LATE TODAY. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ENHANCED/DEEP ASCENT SHOULD THEREFORE SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS NEB/SRN SD OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THESE STORMS REMAIN SURFACE-BASED...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE COMMON WITH STRONGER CELLS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY THREAT ONCE STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED AFTER DARK. ...FAR ERN NC... A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO HAS BEEN ADDED OVER FAR ERN NC AS RAINBANDS FROM T.S. OPHELIA APPROACH THE OUTER BANKS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 19:03:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 14:03:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509122020.j8CKKn8l029199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122015 SWODY1 SPC AC 122014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ANW 30 NNE ANW HON 35 W RWF FRM SUX BBW 40 S ANW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW ANJ 35 W GRB 40 SE OMA 15 SW HSI 20 NNE IML 55 N CYS DGW 40 W GCC 15 N 81V MBG AXN 25 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 35 NW MKG 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 35 NW 4SL 15 SE ALS 15 NNE CAO 10 E LAA 25 ESE LIC 35 NW LIC 35 SSW 4FC 20 N GJT 10 SW PUC 30 E DPG 35 SSW PIH 20 NNE MQM 40 S BZN MLS 20 E P24 70 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SAV FLO 15 NNE EWN HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN NEB...NWRN IA...SWRN MN...SERN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN WY TO SRN/WRN LS SHORELINE... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND WRN CONUS. LEAD SHORTWAVE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ACROSS SWRN WY -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS BLACK HILLS REGION INTO DAKOTAS THROUGH 13/12Z. SFC FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE -- ANALYZED AT 18Z SE PIR...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO SWRN MN TONIGHT...WITH WEAK/SECONDARY LOW REMAINING INVOF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION INVOF WRN PORTION KS/NEB BORDER. ...N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SD...AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE...IN AREA OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED PRESSURE FALLS AND BACKED SFC WINDS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 FOR LATEST DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT IN LIGHTNING DATA ACROSS CENTRAL WY MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS ADJACENT BASINS AND HIGH PLAINS OVER NXT SEVERAL HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ATOP RELATIVELY DRY AND DEEPLY-MIXED POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG CAP STILL EVIDENT IN 18Z LBF RAOB SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. PRIND GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE AFTER DARK IN AND NEAR CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...WHERE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF WIND/HAIL EVENTS IS EXPECTED. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED IN BETWEEN PRINCIPAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...HOWEVER FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S F...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE CAP BEFORE DARK OVER PORTIONS SRN SD AND NEB. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROLIFERATE AFTER DARK WITH MCS LIKELY EVOLVING...SUPPORTED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...35-45 KT SSWLY LLJ AND MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG INVOF MO VALLEY. ....COASTAL CAROLINAS... TS OPHELIA IS FCST BY NHC TO TURN NWD THIS PERIOD AND...GIVEN PRESENT TRACK...WILL PLACE MORE OF COASTAL NC IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR REGIME ALONG OUTER NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION. VWP FRM ILM ALREADY INDICATES SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT MINI SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER LIMITED LAND AREA BENEATH FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVELOPE...LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE EACH WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL INLAND. REF LATEST CHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR GUIDANCE RELATED TO TRACK/INTENSITY OF TS OPHELIA AS WELL AS ALL TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 23:44:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 18:44:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509130101.j8D11tYn032369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130059 SWODY1 SPC AC 130057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W OLU 35 ENE BUB 40 WNW YKN 25 WNW BKX 50 SSW AXN 40 SSE AXN 40 SSW STC 25 W MKT 15 SSE OTG 20 S SUX 20 NE OLU 40 W OLU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ANJ 50 S ESC 40 WNW OSH 30 NNW ALO 30 NNW DSM 20 NNE FNB 35 ESE SLN 20 WSW ICT 15 S P28 40 SE DDC 35 NNE DDC 30 SE MCK 30 WNW LBF 10 N AIA 35 W CDR 45 WSW RAP 25 NNW RAP 25 SSW MBG 50 WNW AXN 30 W DLH 55 NW IWD 40 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 25 WSW HTL 20 NW MKG 40 WSW RFD 30 SSE OTM 45 ENE CNU 25 S MLC 20 N TYR 20 ESE BPT ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG 45 S GNT 10 W 4SL 60 WSW RTN 40 E RTN 45 WNW EHA 40 SW GLD 15 WNW AKO 35 E RKS 50 ENE MLD 30 N IDA 15 N WEY 25 NNE MLS 55 WSW DVL 30 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 30 NNW CHS 10 SE FLO 15 SE FAY 25 N OAJ 15 N HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM ECNTRL NEB EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. OTHER STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN SD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING WWD INTO CNTRL NEB. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUSTAIN THE EXISTING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS AND LOCAL VARIATION IN INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN MANY MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEWD PARALLELING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS ERN NEB...SERN SD AND SRN MN. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE WITH DEVELOPING A LARGE MCS ACROSS ERN SD...NW IA AND SRN MN...MOVING IT ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS PROJECTED MCS PATH SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SERN CO TO ERN NM. THIS SHORTWAVE IS INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM WEST TX TO CNTRL KS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS WCNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING BEFORE INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MOVES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA SLOWLY NWWD TOWARD THE SRN NC COAST TONIGHT KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF OPHELIA ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS SHOW STRONG ELY FLOW WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 04:46:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 23:46:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509130604.j8D643O9008150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130601 SWODY1 SPC AC 130559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE APN 50 N LAF 30 NE SLO 55 WNW CGI 40 SE SGF 10 NE TUL 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 10 SSW DDC CNK 40 W DSM 15 NW ALO 20 WNW CWA 65 ENE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CRE 30 NW ILM 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 30 WSW CVS TAD 55 SSE U24 25 SSW SUN 55 ESE LVM 20 ENE AIA 15 NW BBW 25 W ATY 15 NW BRD 70 E ELO ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 15 WNW BWG 45 NE TXK 40 NNE GGG 10 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 15 S SOP 25 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...OZARK PLATEAU...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY SPREADING WIDESPREAD ASCENT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN NEB...NWRN IA AND NRN WI. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM THE UPPER-TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND STORM COVERAGE REMAINS SCATTERED. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LIFT PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN EARLY INITIATION WITH STORMS LINING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD FAVOR A WIDESPREAD MULTICELL THREAT WITH BOW ECHOES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE DOMINATE MODE OF SEVERE. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7.0 C/KM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL WILL BE ISOLATED. THE BEST LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN ERN KS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT STEEPER. THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPING A COMPLEX LINEAR MCS STRUCTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS THE MCS MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND OZARK REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTS THE REGION TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...A LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS OK AND NCNTRL TX COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CREATE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LOCATED IN WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS (20 TO 30 DEGREES) SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NEAR THE NC COAST BY TONIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF OPHELIA TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT SUGGESTING THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST TONIGHT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND EMBEDDED IN THE INNER RAINBANDS. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 11:34:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 06:34:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509131252.j8DCqZ7e013998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131249 SWODY1 SPC AC 131247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE APN 20 SSW SBN 15 ESE MTO 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 35 ENE DDC 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 15 NNE ALO 15 ESE CWA 65 ENE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRE 35 SE FAY 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 40 NNE CNM 20 NNW TCC 15 W RTN 25 NE CDC 60 SE BAM 45 NNW OWY 50 S 27U 35 SSE LVM CPR 45 WNW LBF 15 WNW BUB 25 NNW RWF 45 E DLH ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 15 WNW BWG 15 WSW PBF 45 ESE SHV 15 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI 15 NNE CAE 20 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CAROLINA CST... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED THE NRN PLNS YESTERDAY WILL PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS MANITOBA TO YIELD A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DEPARTURE OF NRN PLNS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE SRN BRANCH JET TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD E INTO THE SRN PLNS. FARTHER E...SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT PROGRESSION OF CNTRL NOAM TROUGH IS FINALLY SHUNTING UPR OH VLY RIDGE E INTO THE N ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE T.S. "OPHELIA" TO TURN MORE N TOWARD THE NC CST. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY TODAY...WHILE SRN PART SETTLES SSE INTO THE SRN PLNS. ...CNTRL PLNS TO MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SRN BRANCH JET BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ATTM OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS. DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MS VLY THIS PERIOD AS THE SRN JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ENEWD. AT THE SAME TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TX/OK NEWD INTO ERN KS/MO/SE IA AND IL...WHERE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON MUCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 2000 J/KG IN SE IA/NRN IL TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN SE KS AND MO. BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW PRESENT IN ERN KS/NW MO AND SW IA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE INFLUX IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER TODAY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING/CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW. WITH DEEP WSWLY SHEAR OF 40 KTS ORIENTED AT A CONSIDERABLE ANGLE TO THE BAND OF CONVECTION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ACTIVITY TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE ENE ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF ERN KS/MO AND ERN IA...WHERE EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT E OF THE EXISTING ACTIVITY. THESE COULD POSE A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT E/NE INTO IL/SRN WI AND WRN/NRN LWR MI. ...SRN PLNS... SWRN END OF KS CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD TEND TO BACK-BUILD SWD AND WWD INTO RATHER RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS CAP WEAKENS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET...SETUP EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IN SRN KS/NRN OK. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS OK/AR. ...CSTL CAROLINAS... T.S. "OPHELIA" EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW TODAY...BEFORE TURNING MORE N BY TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES E INTO SRN NEW ENG. WIND FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF MINI SUPERCELLS IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT CSTL NC FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO THE SC BORDER ...PER AREA VWPS SHOWING ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. WIND PROFILES SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. CESSATION OF LOW LEVEL COOL/DRY ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD ERN NC...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S. WARM CORE NATURE OF OPHELIA LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...EVEN ON FRINGE OF STORM CIRCULATION AND DURING MAX HEATING. BUT AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN MORE NWD LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OF A MORE TROPICAL ORIGIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD WWD ON N SIDE OF CIRCULATION...POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MINI SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR ERN/SRN NC AND PERHAPS FAR NE SC. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 14:41:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 09:41:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509131559.j8DFxFBH014362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131554 SWODY1 SPC AC 131552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 10 W OAJ 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE APN 35 SSE CGX 25 SSW MTO 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 35 ENE DDC 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 30 WNW LSE 30 WNW AUW 65 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MTC 30 WNW LUK 50 ESE BWG 40 NNW MSL 25 NW GWO 45 ESE SHV 25 W 7R4 ...CONT... 25 SE ELP 30 S ROW TCC 35 S RTN 55 NE 4SL 25 NE CDC 60 SE BAM 25 NNW OWY 65 SW 27U 50 ESE LVM CPR 35 WSW SNY 40 NE MCK 15 ESE RWF 40 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI 20 S GSO 15 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER COASTAL NC... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST AHEAD OF IT...WILL REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA TODAY. ...NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER NWRN MO WITH SEPARATE AREA OF ELEVATED STORMS OVER NERN NEB AT 15Z. THIS SECOND AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD TOWARD IA THIS MORNING. MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO WI WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALLOWING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS AIR MASS...THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NWD OUT OF MO ATTM SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT INTO IA AND FAR SERN MN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE AND SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SMALL BOW SEGMENTS BECOME ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT...WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. ...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE TO BACK-BUILD/REDEVELOP INTO ERN KS AND NWRN MO THIS MORNING...LIKELY HAMPERING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER WITH STRONG HEATING WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE EAST OF THESE STORMS...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED AND SPREAD EWD OVER MUCH OF MO THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. CONTINUED HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN CAP AND SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN TX...WRN/NRN OK AND CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY WITH RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-45 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR BY 21-23Z. THEREFORE...STORMS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE EVOLVING INTO CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE AS ONE OR MORE MCSS AND CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ALONG NOSE OF STRONG WLY SRN STREAM JET SPREADING EWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...COASTAL NC... T.S. OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT NWWD THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NLY THROUGH LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DEVELOPS EWD. THIS WILL PLACE SRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE NC COAST WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE REGIME FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 18:52:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 13:52:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509132010.j8DKAC4p009237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132007 SWODY1 SPC AC 132006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ANJ MTW DNV 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS AMA P28 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 15 NNE RST 55 NE EAU 65 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ELP 30 S ROW TCC 30 WSW CAO 15 SSE ALS 25 S CDC 30 NNE ELY 25 NNW OWY 65 SW 27U 50 ESE LVM 35 SSW BFF 55 ESE LIC 55 NNW GCK 15 ESE RWF 40 N CMX ...CONT... 40 SE OSC 30 WNW IND 20 N OWB 25 E DYR 25 NW GWO 25 NW ESF 25 W 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CHS 20 W DAN 15 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWWD ACROSS CA. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...BROAD PLUME OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM 4 CORNERS TO GREAT LAKES. SFC COLD FRONT -- MODULATED ACROSS IA BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS -- IS ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS SERN MN TO FRONTAL-WAVE LOW BETWEEN SLN-EMP. FRONT THEN EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND OVER E-CENTRAL NM. EXPECT FRONT TO DECELERATE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD ACROSS SERN NM AND SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX...AS POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO LEE-SIDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS FRONT INVOF E-CENTRAL KS LOW...AND EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS SERN KS THEN NEWD OVER WRN MO. DRYLINE -- FROM NEAR PVW SSWWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN NM -- SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY RETREAT WWD IN SOME AREAS. ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... LARGE MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD FROM IA ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MN AND WI. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS OVER MS VALLEY AND SRN WI WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. REF SPC WW 781...782...AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILED NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/ERN MO...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN IL...BUT MAY STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... FARTHER W ACROSS WRN MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK...SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS INCREASING INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL-WAVE LOW. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SOME VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 90S AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY WILL BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED FROM LOW EWD INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 AND WWS 783/784 FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO. CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE AND INTENSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY BACKBUILDING IN AT LEAST BROKEN FORM SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN OK. WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP INVOF DECELERATING COLD FRONT SWWD INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH TCU AND NASCENT CB ALREADY APPARENT FROM LBB AREA NEWD TOWARD SHAMROCK TX. DRYLINE SW OF LBB SHOULD MARK SWRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS REGION INITIALLY IS WEAK BECAUSE OF ONLY 15-20 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS AND SSWLY-WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS FLOW ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONT BACKS DUE TO ISALLOBARIC FORCING FROM NM LEE CYCLOGENESIS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR...SUPPORTED BY WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. ...COASTAL NC... AS TS OPHELIA APCHS COASTLINE AND FAVORABLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SLOWLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN AND SHORELINES...DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS AND MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG OUTER FRINGES OF TS OPHELIA CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...DIABATICALLY AIDED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY HAS PEAKED ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK OUTSIDE OF DENSE INNER BAND TO SUPPORT MUCH DISCRETE/CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES BUT DROP CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 23:43:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 18:43:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509140101.j8E11DxZ029081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140058 SWODY1 SPC AC 140057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DTW 30 ESE BWG 25 SW BNA 25 S MKL 30 W MEM PBF 40 SW MLU 30 W 7R4 60 SW 7R4 90 SE GLS 110 SE PSX 15 ESE BRO 60 WNW MFE LRD 35 WNW DRT 30 SSW P07 90 SSW P07 60 SW MRF 40 W MRF 70 WNW MRF 35 SE CNM 50 SE CVS 40 W AMA 20 W CAO 55 S GUC 20 SE GJT 10 SW CAG 20 SSW LAR 50 WNW AKO 40 W GLD 35 SW HLC 20 SW CNK 40 N FNB 30 SW LSE 40 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ECG 60 E ECG 55 ESE HSE 125 SSE HSE 140 SE ILM 100 SSE ILM 240 ENE DAB 90 ENE DAB 15 ESE SSI 20 NNE AGS 25 NE CLT 45 NNW RWI 20 NE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A WELL-FOCUSED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NWD THROUGH SWRN WI. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING NEWD JUST BEHIND THE LINE. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE (40 TO 50 KT) WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH ERN IA AND NW MO. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW MORE STORMS THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...OZARK PLATEAU/SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH SKIRTING THE REGION TO THE NORTH. A LARGE STORM CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS SE KS AND WRN MO JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE KS. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN OK AND WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 35 TO 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF OK AND KS WITH LESSENING SHEAR VALUES ACROSS WEST TX. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS WEST TX INTO WRN OK AND SERN KS. THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO WHERE THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS THE GREATEST. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SRN MO AND ERN OK. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CAROLINAS... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE NNEWD AND SKIRT THE NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS FAR SRN NC AND ERN SC. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...THE INNER RAINBANDS WILL ALSO MOVE INLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 23:58:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 18:58:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509140115.j8E1Fo7s003973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140112 SWODY1 SPC AC 140111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE APN LAN 40 SSE SBN 15 WSW SLO 30 W UNO 25 SSW MKO 50 SW SPS 65 NNW ABI 50 SSW CDS 10 WSW CDS 50 E GAG 25 E ICT 40 S P35 30 SE CID 35 NNE MSN 20 NW ESC 55 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 35 SE CNM 50 SE CVS 40 W AMA 20 W CAO 55 S GUC 20 SE GJT 10 SW CAG 20 SSW LAR 50 WNW AKO 40 W GLD 35 SW HLC 20 SW CNK 40 N FNB 30 SW LSE 40 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 25 SW MLU 30 S PBF 30 ENE PBF 45 WSW MEM 10 ENE MEM 40 ESE MKL 15 S BNA 40 SE BWG 15 S LUK 45 SSE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SSI 20 NNE AGS 40 ENE CLT 40 N RWI 20 NNE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A WELL-FOCUSED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NWD THROUGH SWRN WI. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING NEWD JUST BEHIND THE LINE. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE (40 TO 50 KT) WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH ERN IA AND NW MO. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW MORE STORMS THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...OZARK PLATEAU/SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH SKIRTING THE REGION TO THE NORTH. A LARGE STORM CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS SE KS AND WRN MO JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE KS. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN OK AND WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 35 TO 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF OK AND KS WITH LESSENING SHEAR VALUES ACROSS WEST TX. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS WEST TX INTO WRN OK AND SERN KS. THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO WHERE THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS THE GREATEST. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SRN MO AND ERN OK. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CAROLINAS... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE NNEWD AND SKIRT THE NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS FAR SRN NC AND ERN SC. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...THE INNER RAINBANDS WILL ALSO MOVE INLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 04:46:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 23:46:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509140604.j8E643Zw016049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140602 SWODY1 SPC AC 140600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S SPS 50 N ABI 65 NW ABI 45 ESE LBB 35 E PVW 40 NW CDS 40 W CSM 30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 35 WSW DUA 40 S SPS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PRX 30 SSW ABI 25 SSE BGS 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 SE DHT 50 SSW LBL 45 NNE GAG 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 35 N MRF 30 S HOB 45 S CVS 10 SE LVS 50 E DRO 30 NE CEZ 25 SE CNY 25 WNW GJT 35 WNW CAG 45 NNE LAR 40 ESE CDR 25 NNE MHN 30 ESE MHN 20 S LBF 35 SSE MCK HLC RSL 20 W EMP 30 SW SZL 35 SE UIN 15 NNW BMI 20 WNW MKG 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 30 SE HUL 30 E EKN 25 WNW HSS RMG TCL 30 NW JAN 40 E SHV 20 NNE TYR 30 SSE SEP 50 SSW BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SW DESERTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH OK AND NRN AR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...OK AND NRN AR DURING THE DAY POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVER OK AND AR SHOULD DRIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SFC HEATING OVER NW TX AND WRN OK. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND ACROSS NRN TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A STRONGLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES VARYING FROM 40 KT OVER ERN OK TO 65 KT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS WILL CREATE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL OK WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED AND SUPERCELLS MODIFY THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...AR OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO BECOME MARGINAL. ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS KY AND WRN TN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WRN TN...NRN MS AND NW AL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S F. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 30 TO 35 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE MULTICELLS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ...ERN NC... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE NNEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC TODAY. RAINBAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NC ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NC TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT MAY BECOME MARGINAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE HURRICANE RAINBANDS GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NC. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 04:58:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 23:58:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509140616.j8E6GABe019690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140613 SWODY1 SPC AC 140612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S SPS 50 N ABI 65 NW ABI 45 ESE LBB 35 E PVW 40 NW CDS 40 W CSM 30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 35 WSW DUA 40 S SPS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PRX 30 SSW ABI 25 SSE BGS 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 SE DHT 50 SSW LBL 45 NNE GAG 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUL 30 E EKN 25 WNW HSS RMG TCL 30 NW JAN 40 E SHV 20 NNE TYR 30 SSE SEP 50 SSW BWD DRT ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 35 N MRF 30 S HOB 45 S CVS 10 SE LVS 50 E DRO 30 NE CEZ 25 SE CNY 25 WNW GJT 35 WNW CAG 45 NNE LAR 40 ESE CDR 25 NNE MHN 30 ESE MHN 20 S LBF 35 SSE MCK HLC RSL 20 W EMP 30 SW SZL 35 SE UIN 15 NNW BMI 20 WNW MKG 35 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS... CORRECTED TO FLIP ARROW ON 5 % LINE ON THE WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SW DESERTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH OK AND NRN AR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...OK AND NRN AR DURING THE DAY POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVER OK AND AR SHOULD DRIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SFC HEATING OVER NW TX AND WRN OK. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND ACROSS NRN TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A STRONGLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES VARYING FROM 40 KT OVER ERN OK TO 65 KT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS WILL CREATE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL OK WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED AND SUPERCELLS MODIFY THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...AR OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO BECOME MARGINAL. ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS KY AND WRN TN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WRN TN...NRN MS AND NW AL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S F. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 30 TO 35 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE MULTICELLS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ...ERN NC... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE NNEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC TODAY. RAINBAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NC ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NC TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT MAY BECOME MARGINAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE HURRICANE RAINBANDS GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NC. ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 11:38:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 06:38:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509141256.j8ECuQoV022328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141253 SWODY1 SPC AC 141252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MWL 25 NNE ABI 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 15 NNE LBB 40 ESE AMA 45 WNW CSM 30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 45 NNW DAL 40 WNW MWL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PRX 15 NE BWD 30 WNW SJT 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 WNW TCC 15 SE RTN 45 SSW LAA 35 SE LBL 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 50 SE GDP 30 ENE CNM 45 ENE ROW 15 SSW LVS 35 SE DRO 10 NW 4BL 10 S CNY 25 WNW GJT 10 SSE CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 20 SE PIR 45 NNW ABR 25 W FAR 40 E FAR 20 SW AXN 25 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB 30 NE MCK 30 NW HLC 15 NE RSL 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 30 NW STL 10 SSE MMO 30 NNE MKG 15 NE APN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 30 NE POU 15 NW HSS 20 NW RMG TCL 25 WNW MEI 10 SW HEZ 35 N LFK 35 NNE ACT 35 SW BWD 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 20 NNW FAY 30 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TEXAS AND SRN/CNTRL OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN/OH VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD AS EXISTING UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED S INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ACTIVE SRN BRANCH JET WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A PRIME FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM ATTM EXTENDS FROM NRN KS SWD INTO NW TX. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT UPSTREAM OVER WRN AZ. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL NM BY THIS EVENING AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM MI TO SE MO TO THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE LWR OH/MID MS VLY TODAY. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE LBB AREA ENE INTO CNTRL OK. ...SRN PLNS TO SRN OZARKS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF OK AND KS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED E/NE ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE COLD FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL STORM OUTFLOW. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/ERN OK AND CNTRL/SRN AR. AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR... INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...AND MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/ WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING NM IMPULSE. FARTHER W...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN ZONE OF SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW N OF SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONT IN NW TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. INITIATION IN THIS REGION MAY AT FIRST BE TIED TO SURFACE HEATING ...BUT IN TIME WILL BE ASSISTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM TROUGH. COMBINATION OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE OF 3000 TO POSSIBLY 4000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 500 MB WSWLY FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE FROM 30-35 KTS TO AROUND 50 KTS...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. IN ADDITION...ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF STALLED BOUNDARIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE. WITH TIME...STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD IN MDT RISK AREA IN RESPONSE TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E/SE ALONG THE RED RIVER VLY...AND WILL EXTEND A THREAT FOR SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ...MID MS/LWR OH/TN VLYS... AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL GRAZE PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR TN VLYS TODAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GRT LKS. COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS REGION WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SRN MO TO SRN IND...AND S/E OF OLD STORM OUTFLOW FROM WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS AND NW AL. MUCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 IN CLOUDIER SPOTS TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ELSEWHERE. PROXIMITY OF SRN BRANCH JET WILL MAINTAIN 30-35 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR ACROSS REGION. WHILE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BE WEAK... MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPR SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...ERN NC... HRCN OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NWD ATTM AS UPR RIDGE TO ITS N CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NE LATER TODAY IN AGREEMENT WITH TPC AND MODEL FORECASTS. WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE TO MINI SUPERCELLS ARE ALREADY PRESENT ALONG THE SRN NC CST...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR ABOVE 50 KTS. FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD NWD ALONG THE CST TO THE VA CAPES BY TONIGHT. WARM CORE NATURE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATED OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS. BUT FRICTIONALLY-INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM W OF ECG TO NEAR ILM LIKELY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND MAY SERVE AS A SOURCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED UPLIFT AS MODEST SURFACE HEATING OCCURS OVER ERN AND NE NC TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS...AND THUS ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR WHERE CONFLUENCE BANDS INTERSECT THE TROUGH. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 13:24:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 08:24:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509141442.j8EEgEAs029781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141437 SWODY1 SPC AC 141436 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MWL 25 NNE ABI 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 15 NNE LBB 40 ESE AMA 45 WNW CSM 30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 45 NNW DAL 40 WNW MWL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PRX 15 NE BWD 30 WNW SJT 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 WNW TCC 15 SE RTN 45 SSW LAA 35 SE LBL 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 50 SE GDP 30 ENE CNM 45 ENE ROW 15 SSW LVS 35 SE DRO 10 NW 4BL 10 S CNY 25 WNW GJT 10 SSE CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 20 SE PIR 45 NNW ABR 25 W FAR 40 E FAR 20 SW AXN 25 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB 30 NE MCK 30 NW HLC 15 NE RSL 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 30 NW STL 10 SSE MMO 30 NNE MKG 15 NE APN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 30 NE POU 15 NW HSS 20 NW RMG TCL 25 WNW MEI 10 SW HEZ 35 N LFK 35 NNE ACT 35 SW BWD 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 20 NNW FAY 30 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TEXAS AND SRN/CNTRL OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN/OH VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC... CORRECTED TO ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN COASTAL NC ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD AS EXISTING UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED S INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ACTIVE SRN BRANCH JET WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A PRIME FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM ATTM EXTENDS FROM NRN KS SWD INTO NW TX. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT UPSTREAM OVER WRN AZ. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL NM BY THIS EVENING AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM MI TO SE MO TO THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE LWR OH/MID MS VLY TODAY. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE LBB AREA ENE INTO CNTRL OK. ...SRN PLNS TO SRN OZARKS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF OK AND KS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED E/NE ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE COLD FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL STORM OUTFLOW. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/ERN OK AND CNTRL/SRN AR. AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR... INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...AND MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/ WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING NM IMPULSE. FARTHER W...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN ZONE OF SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW N OF SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONT IN NW TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. INITIATION IN THIS REGION MAY AT FIRST BE TIED TO SURFACE HEATING ...BUT IN TIME WILL BE ASSISTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM TROUGH. COMBINATION OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE OF 3000 TO POSSIBLY 4000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 500 MB WSWLY FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE FROM 30-35 KTS TO AROUND 50 KTS...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. IN ADDITION...ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF STALLED BOUNDARIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE. WITH TIME...STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD IN MDT RISK AREA IN RESPONSE TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E/SE ALONG THE RED RIVER VLY...AND WILL EXTEND A THREAT FOR SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ...MID MS/LWR OH/TN VLYS... AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL GRAZE PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR TN VLYS TODAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GRT LKS. COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS REGION WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SRN MO TO SRN IND...AND S/E OF OLD STORM OUTFLOW FROM WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS AND NW AL. MUCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 IN CLOUDIER SPOTS TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ELSEWHERE. PROXIMITY OF SRN BRANCH JET WILL MAINTAIN 30-35 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR ACROSS REGION. WHILE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BE WEAK... MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPR SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...ERN NC... HRCN OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NWD ATTM AS UPR RIDGE TO ITS N CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NE LATER TODAY IN AGREEMENT WITH TPC AND MODEL FORECASTS. WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE TO MINI SUPERCELLS ARE ALREADY PRESENT ALONG THE SRN NC CST...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR ABOVE 50 KTS. FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD NWD ALONG THE CST TO THE VA CAPES BY TONIGHT. WARM CORE NATURE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATED OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS. BUT FRICTIONALLY-INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM W OF ECG TO NEAR ILM LIKELY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND MAY SERVE AS A SOURCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED UPLIFT AS MODEST SURFACE HEATING OCCURS OVER ERN AND NE NC TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS...AND THUS ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR WHERE CONFLUENCE BANDS INTERSECT THE TROUGH. ..CORFIDI.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 15:24:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 10:24:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509141642.j8EGg5XM025636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141639 SWODY1 SPC AC 141638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MWL 25 NNE ABI 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 10 NE LBB 40 NE PVW 45 NNE CDS 45 E CSM 20 S OKC 15 WNW ADM 35 N MWL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE PRX 15 NE BWD 30 WNW SJT 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 WNW TCC 15 SE RTN 45 SSW LAA 35 SE LBL 15 E PNC 30 NE UNO 25 SE MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 20 WNW GWO 40 SSE HOT 15 ENE PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 15 ESE SOP 30 SE EKN 45 WSW EKN 30 WNW HSS 20 NNE 0A8 15 NW LUL 30 WNW POE 25 ENE TPL 20 SW JCT 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 30 SSE GDP 25 N CNM 50 N ROW 20 SSE ABQ 15 E FMN 10 NW 4BL 10 S CNY 25 WNW GJT 10 SSE CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 10 SSW PIR 60 NE MBG 30 NNW JMS 35 E DVL 30 NE GFK 20 NNW BJI 35 SE BJI 25 NE AXN 30 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB 30 NE MCK 30 NW HLC 15 NE RSL 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 10 SSW ALN 35 SE CGX 20 N GRR 10 E OSC ...CONT... 35 SSE HUL 20 ENE BDL 35 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND SOUTHWESTERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL NC... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRECEDE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM OH INTO ERN KY/ERN TN AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN AL/NRN MS/CENTRAL AR/NWRN TX. ERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING...WITH SRN PLAINS PORTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD AXIS OF MID 60S DEW POINTS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT...WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SFC DEW PTS AOA 70F/ PERSISTING WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ALOFT SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID SOUTH REGIONS TODAY...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...WRN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH... AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THOUGH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT CAP SUGGEST THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING. 15Z SOUNDING FROM REECE/TX INDICATES CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S MAY BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN LARGE CLOUD-FREE AREA WITHIN PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED BETWEEN 3-5 PM OVER NWRN TX/SRN OK/NRN TX. MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK. OTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER WRN PORTION OF SLGT RISK /ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION/ WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...THOUGH STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING...THOUGH STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES/FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS. SUPERCELLS OVER WRN TX AND SRN OK/NRN TX MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WITH CELLS PROPAGATING ALONG SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARLY ALIGNED WITH EXPECTED ELY STORM MOTIONS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OK/NRN TX AND SPREAD INTO FAR SRN MO/AR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AFTER 05Z. ...COASTAL NC... PRESENCE OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH BANDS ROTATING AROUND OPHELIA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE SMALL SLGT RISK AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITHIN FAVORED N-NE QUADRANT OF OPHELIA. ...OH RIVER VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES... APPEARS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL IL. LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 18:54:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 13:54:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509142011.j8EKBmHW032702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142009 SWODY1 SPC AC 142007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW ADM 40 SW SPS 65 S CDS 50 E LBB 40 E PVW 35 WNW CDS 30 WNW LTS 25 N FSI 45 SE OKC ADM 45 SSW ADM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL ABI 35 NE P07 MRF 50 ENE HOB AMA 30 WSW P28 40 ESE P28 JLN 30 NE UNO 25 SE MDH CKV BNA MSL CBM 30 S GWO 35 SSE TXK DAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE EWN 20 ENE RWI 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 30 SW HOB 55 N HOB CVS 10 SE LVS 15 E FMN 10 NW 4BL 30 E 4HV 45 NE U28 CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 10 SSW PIR 60 NE MBG 30 NNW JMS 35 E DVL 30 NE GFK 20 NNW BJI 35 SE BJI 25 NE AXN 30 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB GLD 55 E LAA 50 S HLC 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 10 SSW ALN SBN MBS 10 E OSC ...CONT... 35 SSE HUL 20 ENE BDL 35 SSW GON ...CONT... 15 ENE CRE SOP SHD 15 SSW PIT JKL 20 NNE 0A8 15 NW LUL 30 WNW POE 25 ENE TPL 20 SW JCT 40 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...NW TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SW TX TO WRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED GENERALLY BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC COST TO GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CO AND NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ATOP CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS DEEPEN FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER FLOYD COUNTY TX...BASED ON W TX MESONET OBS. ...SRN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY... OVER CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ON BOTH SIDES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER WRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 FOR NEAR TERM INFORMATION. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APCHG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGHOUT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM VICINITY SFC LOW EWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF NW TX AND SRN OK. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING..WITH TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT. MOST FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BETWEEN NW TX AND SWRN AR. FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR REGION...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING MOVING GENERALLY EWD FROM ARKLATEX REGION ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT AFTER DARK. MCS RELATED TO NW TX CONVECTION ALSO MAY AFFECT THIS REGION LATE IN PERIOD WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. FARTHER SW ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX...ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...MORE SLY SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAN OVER RED RIVER REGION...BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING HAIL/GUST POTENTIAL. ...ERN NC -- OPHELIA TORNADO THREAT... SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT HEIGHTENED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RISK AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS SMALL SECTOR OF NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NC HAS HEATED DIABATICALLY ENOUGH TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. DISCRETE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ARE OBSERVED ATTM WITH ONE SPIRAL CONVERGENCE BAND SW-W OF HSE..ACROSS ALBEMARLE SOUND AND INLAND...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO VA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. GRADUAL NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN NERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATE TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION REGARDING THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 20:48:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 15:48:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509142205.j8EM5jLP025847@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142159 SWODY1 SPC AC 142158 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 142200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW ADM 40 SW SPS 65 S CDS 50 E LBB 40 E PVW 35 WNW CDS 30 WNW LTS 25 N FSI 45 SE OKC ADM 45 SSW ADM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL ABI 35 NE P07 MRF 50 ENE HOB AMA 30 WSW P28 40 ESE P28 JLN 30 NE UNO 25 SE MDH CKV BNA MSL CBM 30 S GWO 35 SSE TXK DAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE EWN 20 ENE RWI 25 SE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LBL 35 NE CAO 35 SE TAD TAD 35 SW PUB 20 NW PUB 25 SW LIC 25 NE LIC 45 WNW GLD 40 SSW MCK 35 SSW HLC 40 N DDC 15 NW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE HUL 20 ENE BDL 35 SSW GON ...CONT... 15 ENE CRE SOP SHD 15 SSW PIT JKL 20 NNE 0A8 15 NW LUL 30 WNW POE 25 ENE TPL 20 SW JCT 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 30 SW HOB 55 N HOB CVS 10 SE LVS 15 E FMN 10 NW 4BL 30 E 4HV 45 NE U28 CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 10 SSW PIR 60 NE MBG 30 NNW JMS 35 E DVL 30 NE GFK 20 NNW BJI 35 SE BJI 25 NE AXN 30 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB BBW 35 SW EAR 55 SSW HSI 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 10 SSW ALN SBN MBS 10 E OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...NW TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SW TX TO WRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO...WRN KS... AMENDED FOR SERN CO/WRN KS ...AMD AREA... SVR POTENTIAL INCREASING OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AMIDST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203 FOR DETAILS. ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED GENERALLY BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC COST TO GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CO AND NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ATOP CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS DEEPEN FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER FLOYD COUNTY TX...BASED ON W TX MESONET OBS. ...SRN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY... OVER CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ON BOTH SIDES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER WRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 FOR NEAR TERM INFORMATION. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APCHG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGHOUT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM VICINITY SFC LOW EWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF NW TX AND SRN OK. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING..WITH TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT. MOST FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BETWEEN NW TX AND SWRN AR. FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR REGION...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING MOVING GENERALLY EWD FROM ARKLATEX REGION ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT AFTER DARK. MCS RELATED TO NW TX CONVECTION ALSO MAY AFFECT THIS REGION LATE IN PERIOD WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. FARTHER SW ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX...ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...MORE SLY SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAN OVER RED RIVER REGION...BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING HAIL/GUST POTENTIAL. ...ERN NC -- OPHELIA TORNADO THREAT... SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT HEIGHTENED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RISK AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS SMALL SECTOR OF NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NC HAS HEATED DIABATICALLY ENOUGH TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. DISCRETE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ARE OBSERVED ATTM WITH ONE SPIRAL CONVERGENCE BAND SW-W OF HSE..ACROSS ALBEMARLE SOUND AND INLAND...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO VA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. GRADUAL NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN NERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATE TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION REGARDING THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 05:40:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 00:40:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509150540.j8F5eS0E028265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150538 SWODY1 SPC AC 150536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ADM FSM ARG 25 SW CKV HSV 15 ESE CBM 40 W JAN 45 SSW SHV TPL JCT 25 W SJT 65 WSW SPS 30 NNW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRE 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 25 SW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 NNE LFT 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 10 SSW P07 40 SSW MAF 20 S HOB 25 SW CVS 10 ENE TCC 20 E EHA 30 ENE DDC 30 E MKC 35 SE UIN 40 NNE LAF 30 NE AZO 40 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 25 E RWF 40 SE BKX 15 N MHE 20 SW ABR 45 SW JMS 40 ENE DIK 65 NNW MLS 55 SSW HVR 35 NNE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.... NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS SUGGEST PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN BOTH STREAMS WILL AMPLIFY TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNTIL LATTER FEATURE PROGRESSES CLOSER TO ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY...HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LWR OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY.... CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TODAY NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSOLATION FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FRONTAL WAVE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/ TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY SHEARED 30+ KT MEAN FLOW REGIME COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SEEM LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY THREATS...AND EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID/UPPER FORCING IS MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WEAK CAP MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SHORT LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SPARSE DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY TEND TO MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 13:01:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 08:01:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151301.j8FD14FS016300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151258 SWODY1 SPC AC 151257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ADM FSM ARG 25 SW CKV HSV 15 ESE CBM 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20 SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 NNW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 15 E CNM 25 ENE ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 25 NNE LTS 10 WNW PNC 30 SW SZL 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 20 W MKT 25 E BKX MBG 60 SW DIK 10 NE LVM 10 WNW HLN 95 NNE 3TH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE LWR MS/OH/TN VLYS...... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN RCKYS. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON ...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. ...OK/NE TX INTO LWR OH/TN VLYS.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN/CNTRL TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW NEAR CDS. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR SEP/MWL. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN NM/W TX... ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE ISOLATED. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 16:10:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 11:10:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151610.j8FGAWHK021698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151603 SWODY1 SPC AC 151602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1102 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ADM 10 NNE PGO 15 NNE JBR 35 W HOP 55 ESE BWG 20 WNW RMG 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20 SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 SSW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 15 W CNM 30 N ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 20 W FSI 20 SSW TUL 20 NNE SGF 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MCW SPW 20 SW FSD 35 WNW HON 55 S Y22 15 ESE BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF TX INTO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN RCKYS. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. ...OK/NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN/CNTRL TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW NEAR CDS. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR SEP/MWL. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN NM/W TX... ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE ISOLATED. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 16:31:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 11:31:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151631.j8FGVXkt007807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151625 SWODY1 SPC AC 151602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1102 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ADM 10 NNE PGO 15 NNE JBR 35 W HOP 55 ESE BWG 20 WNW RMG 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20 SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 SSW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 15 W CNM 30 N ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 20 W FSI 20 SSW TUL 20 NNE SGF 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MCW SPW 20 SW FSD 35 WNW HON 55 S Y22 15 ESE BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF TX INTO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN RCKYS. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. ...OK/NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN/CNTRL TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW NEAR CDS. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR SEP/MWL. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN NM/W TX... ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE ISOLATED. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 17:28:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 12:28:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151728.j8FHSgbG015067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151725 SWODY1 SPC AC 151657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1157 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ELP 35 SE ROW 45 E TCC 45 NNE EHA 20 NE IML 15 NE MHN 15 ESE MBG 35 W BIS 25 SSE SDY 15 NNE BIL 20 WNW MQM 20 SE BOI 80 NNW WMC 45 S 4LW 10 E MHS 35 SSE MFR 55 N LMT 60 SE RDM 40 WSW BKE 30 SW LWS 25 E PUW 35 NNE 3TH 25 S CTB 25 WSW HVR 40 WNW GGW 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 90 NW CMX 30 SSE BRD 30 NNW SUX 20 N MHK 30 SE ICT 25 ESE END 20 SSW OKC 30 SW ADM 35 SW PRX 30 NW ELD 40 WSW UOX 25 SSE CKV 30 NNE EVV 15 SSW IND 40 NE DAY 40 W CLE 25 WSW BUF 35 WNW SYR 20 W POU 20 SSE PVD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OH VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO WRN NY/PA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND BE LOCATED FROM PA TO THE NCNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATOP DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS... LATEST GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED TO THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO LATEST GFS WHICH INDICATES A MORE NWD TRACK AND SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE IMPULSE. THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE BEST GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS INVOF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE FROM OH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH FORCING NEAR FRONT AND LOW...SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE FROM STRONGER CELLS/LINES AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. PRESENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. SOME PARTS OF THE REGION COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS FORECAST SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...SRN APPALACHIANS TO NRN GULF COAST/NERN TX... DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENTLY IN LATEST GUIDANCE COMPARED TO TROUGH/LOW FARTHER NORTH. MIXING AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM NC SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE A FEW MULTICELLULAR OR PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ANY THREAT SHOULD DECLINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN AFTER DARK. ...CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS... LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS MID LEVEL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO HIGH PLAINS. IN TURN...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE TX PNHDL TO THE DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR STORM INITIATION CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COULD ENHANCE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM ND TO MN. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ACROSS THE REGION PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IN THIS OUTLOOK. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 17:35:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 12:35:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151735.j8FHZT2G019124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151731 SWODY1 SPC AC 151602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1102 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ADM 10 NNE PGO 15 NNE JBR 35 W HOP 55 ESE BWG 20 WNW RMG 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20 SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 SSW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 15 W CNM 30 N ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 20 W FSI 20 SSW TUL 20 NNE SGF 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MCW SPW 20 SW FSD 35 WNW HON 55 S Y22 15 ESE BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF TX INTO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN RCKYS. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. ...OK/NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN/CNTRL TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW NEAR CDS. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR SEP/MWL. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN NM/W TX... ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE ISOLATED. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 19:47:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 14:47:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151947.j8FJlG1s021414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151945 SWODY1 SPC AC 151944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0244 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SPS 40 SSE PGO 45 ESE PGO 40 W UOX 20 ENE DYR 45 WSW LOZ 10 NW RMG 40 W JAN 45 SE GGG 10 N TPL 45 SSW BWD 10 SW SJT 35 W ABI 35 SSE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 35 NW INK 50 NNW HOB 55 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 15 NW FSI 35 NW PGO 40 WSW ARG 10 NW SLO 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BRL 25 W UIN 55 SSW IRK 35 NNE MKC 40 WSW LWD 35 SW OTM 10 WNW BRL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY... ...NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...CNTRL/NE TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR CNTRL/NE TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING... BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL/NE TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR... SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 20:10:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 15:10:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509152010.j8FKADkV006395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152007 SWODY1 SPC AC 151944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0244 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SPS 40 SSE PGO 45 ESE PGO 40 W UOX 20 ENE DYR 45 WSW LOZ 10 NW RMG 40 W JAN 45 SE GGG 10 N TPL 45 SSW BWD 10 SW SJT 35 W ABI 35 SSE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 35 NW INK 50 NNW HOB 55 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 15 NW FSI 35 NW PGO 40 WSW ARG 10 NW SLO 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BRL 25 W UIN 55 SSW IRK 35 NNE MKC 40 WSW LWD 35 SW OTM 10 WNW BRL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY... ...NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...CNTRL/NE TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR CNTRL/NE TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING... BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL/NE TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR... SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 16 00:39:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 19:39:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509160039.j8G0dTq1007329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160037 SWODY1 SPC AC 160035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWD 20 SSW FTW 45 WNW TYR 10 ESE TYR 30 NW LFK CLL 15 SW AUS 35 W JCT 30 ENE SJT 25 WNW BWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP LRD ...CONT... 15 S P07 MAF 35 SE LBB ADM FYV UMN 30 SE SZL SPI MMO 25 NW AZO 55 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 NE ROC ALB CON 40 SE AUG ...CONT... 20 SE SBY NHK LYH HKY AND LGC LUL 15 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JMS FAR BRD 15 ENE EAU MCW SUX 9V9 BIS JMS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TEXAS.... EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... IN RESPONSE TO PHASING IMPULSES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL STREAM. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LATTER FEATURE IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS HAS BEEN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE...EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...HAS ALSO BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING TODAY OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...WHERE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN WEAK. ...TEXAS... TEMPERATURES IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE SLOW TO COOL BELOW 90F THIS EVENING. WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ONGOING IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD MAINTAIN RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO. VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AND...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS STILL POSSIBLE...BEFORE THREAT ENDS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... NEAR CREST OF AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...DOWNSTREAM OF EVOLVING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BECOME FOCUSED FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE FORCING MAY BE ENHANCED ON NOSE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ..KERR.. 09/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 05:47:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 00:47:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509190546.j8J5khSa014300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190544 SWODY1 SPC AC 190543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ERI 30 SE MFD 30 SSW LUK 10 WSW OWB 25 NNW POF 10 N UMN 45 N JLN 55 N SZL 10 SW MSN 20 NE TVC 60 E ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 70 N AYS 40 NW AGS 10 ESE CLT 25 NNW RDU 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W PRB 20 WNW MER 40 SSE TVL 70 S NFL 35 SE TPH 40 SSE P38 15 SSE PGA 30 WSW 4SL 20 W LVS 40 ENE 4CR 40 NNW GDP 55 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 35 SSW ALB 15 ESE CXY 25 NNW SHD 10 ENE TRI 15 W CHA 35 ENE CBM 15 N GWO 35 S HOT 20 NW DUA 50 SSE CDS 10 WSW LBB 35 SW AMA 60 ENE AMA 50 E GAG 10 SW ICT 40 N STJ 55 WSW DSM 55 ESE SUX 25 WSW YKN 25 S 9V9 50 ENE PIR 50 S JMS 15 W IWD 10 NNE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS SWWD INTO THE OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF 50-60 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY MONDAY AFTN-NIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI LATE MORNING MONDAY TO NRN LWR MI MONDAY EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO BY EARLY TUESDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GRTLKS REGION WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER OH VLY. THE FRONT/BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCI FOR SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. ...CNTRL GRTLKS REGION SWWD INTO THE OZARKS... ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION MONDAY AFTN. THUS...TSTMS /LIKELY ELEVATED WITH ISOLD HAIL/ WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ACROSS LWR MI. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS LATE AFTN-EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EVOLVING INTO LINE SEGMENTS... SHOULD STORMS FORM. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON INSTABILITY CONCERNS AND COULD OFFER HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MO NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL AND IND. SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE PLUME OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY MID-AFTN...MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTN AND RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH STORMS LIKELY BUILDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND INTO THE INCREASING CAP ACROSS THE OZARKS. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL-IND AND BEGIN PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE MID-OH VLY OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE OH VLY AND MAY YIELD HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ...EXTREME SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS... OFFICIAL NHC/TPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RITA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE AND BE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE UPPER KEYS BY 12Z TUE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT EXTREME SRN FL/KEYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST/TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY SQUALLS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 09/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 12:51:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 07:51:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509191251.j8JCpPuA025523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191248 SWODY1 SPC AC 191247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ERI 25 SSE MFD 30 SSW LUK 25 E CGI 15 NNW UNO 15 SE JLN 35 SSE OJC 55 N SZL 10 SW MSN 30 N MBL 60 E ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 70 N AYS 40 NW AGS 10 ESE CLT 25 NNW RDU 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W PRB 20 WNW MER 40 SSE TVL 70 S NFL 35 SE TPH 40 SSE P38 15 SSE PGA 30 WSW 4SL 20 W LVS 40 ENE 4CR 40 NNW GDP 55 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 35 SSW ALB 15 ESE CXY 25 NNW SHD 10 ENE TRI 15 W CHA 35 ENE CBM 15 N GWO 35 S HOT 20 NW DUA 50 SSE CDS 10 WSW LBB 35 SW AMA 60 ENE AMA 50 E GAG 10 SW ICT 40 N STJ 55 WSW DSM 55 ESE SUX 25 N SUX 25 WSW FSD 30 SW ATY 45 S FAR 25 WNW RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO TO LOWER MI.... ...MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES... A BROAD NNW-SSE ORIENTED BELT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING ENEWD OVER IL/WI TOWARD INDIANA/MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION...THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AND THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN NE IA WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN WI TO NRN LOWER MI BY THIS EVENING...REACHING SW QUEBEC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN IA/WRN IL/MO THIS MORNING WILL ALSO SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS IL AND SRN WI BY MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD...REACHING SRN LOWER MI AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S /BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS IL/MO. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. REGARDLESS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER IN THE REGION OF WAA IMMEDIATELY NE THROUGH SE OF THE SURFACE LOW...COINCIDENT WITH THE ERN/NERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. ANY SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ...AZ/SRN CA... NWD ADVECTION OF L0W-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NW MEXICO TO AZ/SRN CA IS EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND THE CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NW GULF COAST. THE MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE NAM/GFS ARE 6-12 HOURS TOO FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO. ...S FL LATE TONIGHT... TROPICAL STORM RITA IS DEVELOPING INVOF THE SE BAHAMAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WWD THROUGH TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN JUST E/SE OF FL UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 00:48:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 19:48:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509200048.j8K0mcwe021791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200046 SWODY1 SPC AC 200045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE TBN 55 WNW TBN 20 SSE SZL 30 NE SZL 30 NW SPI 20 S SBN 35 SSW JXN 20 SSW ARB 30 SSE DTW 30 N MFD 20 WSW MFD 30 ENE DAY 45 S MIE MVN 35 SSE VIH 10 SSE TBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE LGB 25 SW DAG 60 ENE DAG 40 NE FLG 20 W ABQ 15 E 4CR 40 SW ROW 70 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK 10 SE RUT 10 WNW POU 40 NNW ILG 10 WNW SHD 20 WNW TYS 25 N MSL 30 WSW MEM 50 NNW LIT 15 NW FYV 30 W JLN 30 NNE CNU MKC 30 WNW IRK 25 W CGX 45 NW BEH 20 ENE MKG 25 SE TVC 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW FMY 30 SSE VRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LINEAR MCS THAT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NRN IL SWWD INTO NCNTRL MO. ANOTHER SMALLER MCS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IND ATTM. THE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS SHOWN BY RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE LINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH THE STORMS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL...SRN IND AND SW OH. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR AS SHOWN BY REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS DUE TO THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL JET MAX EXTENDING FROM NRN MO ENEWD INTO SRN MI. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME LESS STEEP IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...SFC DEWPOINTS OF 64-72 F COMBINED WITH A FAST EWD STORM MOTION WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINES. HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE LINES ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS KY AND SRN OH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE DECREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 05:57:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 00:57:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509200557.j8K5vNfA023542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200555 SWODY1 SPC AC 200553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 20 S FAY 15 SW SOP 25 SSE GSO 45 ESE LYH 30 SE BWI 10 ENE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMY 45 ENE FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CHS 35 SE AGS 30 S ATL 45 WSW 0A8 MEI 50 ESE MCB 30 SSW GPT ...CONT... 20 SSW LCH 30 NNW POE 50 N POE 30 WSW MLU 20 ESE ELD 10 NE ELD 25 N TXK 35 SW PGO 20 ESE MKO 40 SW UMN 10 ENE SGF 20 NE MDH 25 SSW DAY YNG 35 S ROC 30 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 S SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW UKI 20 ENE RBL 65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 30 N EVW 20 NNW VEL 45 NE U28 35 NE CNY 40 SE GUC 40 ENE ALS 25 SE LHX 50 SE GLD 20 ESE HLC 25 N CNK 35 NE CNK 35 NE MHK 30 ENE MHK 30 ESE MHK 35 ENE ICT 45 WNW PNC 60 ENE AMA 35 SW AMA 20 S TCC 45 N 4CR 10 NW ONM 35 WSW TCS 40 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL... ...MID-ATLANTIC/NC... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE US AS A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY POINT FOR THE STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS VA AND WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN 60S F COMBINED WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CREATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING STORMS WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. IT ALSO APPEARS THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM ALSO SUGGEST THE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA DURING THE EVENING...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. ANY MARGINAL THREAT SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS THE LINE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF VA AND NC. ...SRN FL... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM RITA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AND SKIRT THE SRN PART OF FL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE INNER RAINBANDS AFFECTING FAR SRN FL AND THE FL KEYS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN FL SHOW STRONG ELY FLOW ON THE NRN SIDE OF RITA WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT. IN ADDITION...MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN FL. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AS RITA MOVES AWAY FROM SRN FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CA/SRN NV... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS SRN CA AND SRN NV TODAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..BROYLES.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 12:57:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 07:57:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509201257.j8KCvDns010630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201254 SWODY1 SPC AC 201252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 20 S FAY 15 SW SOP 25 SSE GSO 45 ESE LYH 35 WSW DOV TTN 15 SSE POU 15 SW PSF 35 NNE PSF 20 S LEB 15 ENE CON BOS 20 SW EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMY 45 ENE FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW LCH 45 N POE 30 WSW MLU 20 E ELD 25 N TXK 35 SW PGO 20 ESE MKO 40 SW UMN 10 ENE SGF 20 NE MDH 25 SSW DAY YNG 35 S ROC 30 W ART ...CONT... 15 ESE CHS 35 SE AGS 30 S ATL 45 WSW 0A8 MEI 50 ESE MCB 30 SSW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 SSW SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW UKI 20 ENE RBL 65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 30 N EVW 30 NNW VEL 30 NE CNY 40 SE GUC 40 ENE ALS 25 SE LHX 50 SE GLD 20 ESE HLC 25 NNE CNK 35 NW TOP 25 NNW EMP 35 ENE ICT 45 WNW PNC 60 ENE AMA 35 SW AMA 20 S TCC 45 N 4CR 10 NW ONM 35 WSW TCS 40 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM ERN NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS S FL AND THE FL KEYS.... ...NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS TODAY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER SW QUEBEC...AND A SEPARATE WAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE QUEBEC WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRUSH NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS PA/NY NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BY TONIGHT. FARTHER S...THE OH VALLEY SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING ERN NC/VA BY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS OH VALLEY...WHILE A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS IS SPREADING ENEWD OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY...WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND MLCAPE VALUES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO VALUES AOB 750 J/KG. STILL...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER S...STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM ERN NC TO SRN NJ. HOWEVER... VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N. EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...S FL AND THE KEYS... TROPICAL STORM RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY WHILE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE OPEN SE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE FL KEYS...LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY ACROSS S FL AND THE KEYS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR OUTER BAND SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO OR TWO TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ...SRN CA AREA... AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS THIS MORNING E OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34 N AND 123 W. NWD ADVECTION OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD NWD IN CA AND INTO SRN NV TODAY. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KT SLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 16:38:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 11:38:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509201638.j8KGcngE010680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201635 SWODY1 SPC AC 201634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM FAY 30 NNW SOP 25 WNW DAN 20 NE SHD 10 S ABE POU 15 NNW ORH BOS 20 SW EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 25 WNW ESF 10 ENE MLU 35 S PBF 30 ESE HOT 35 ENE MLC 25 NNE MKO 25 N SGF 45 ESE VIH 45 NW EVV 55 SSW CMH 20 N LBE 25 WSW ELM 10 WSW MSS ...CONT... 20 W CTY 35 NE AYS 40 SW AGS 35 S ATL 25 NE SEM 45 SW SEM 25 N MOB 35 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SFO 35 SE RBL 65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 50 NE MLD 35 WNW RWL 25 SSE CAG 30 NE GUC 30 ESE COS 30 E GLD 50 SSW HLC 35 NW GAG 20 SW AMA 35 WSW CVS 15 S 4CR 10 ESE TCS 30 SSW SVC 65 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL... ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO CAROLINAS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINE. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN AFFECTING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL EXIST FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION AND EASTERN NC. AIR MASS FROM LONG ISLAND INTO NC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM/DESTABILIZE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN PA INTO CENTRAL VA/NC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGHOUT THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. ...AR/MS/TN... RIDGING BEHIND APPALACHIANS TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...PARTS OF AR/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN MAY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS REGION...WITH JUST ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FOR A RISK OF MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... LARGE PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF CA/NV/AZ TODAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SEE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING FOR A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTH FL... HURRICANE RITA WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND AFFECT SOUTH FL MUCH OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS AND MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF STORM MAY ENHANCE THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD INTO THE KEYS. THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM DEPARTS REGION. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 20:08:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 15:08:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509202008.j8KK8E3D004316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202006 SWODY1 SPC AC 202004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ILM 15 SE SOP 10 SSE GSO 20 W DAN 15 ENE LYH 25 E CHO 15 ESE BWI 10 SSE ILG 15 W NEL 20 E NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW SFO 70 SSW SVE 30 NW LOL 45 WSW TWF 25 NW MLD 35 E EVW 50 N GJT 35 NE CEZ 30 WSW ALS 20 NNW GLD 50 WSW HLC 40 SE LBL 20 SW AMA 35 WSW CVS 35 N ALM 45 NE SAD 50 SE SAD 65 SW DMN ...CONT... 25 SSE CTY 20 SE AYS 45 W SAV 45 WSW AGS 30 ESE ATL 25 NNW LGC 30 SSE BHM 30 W TCL 25 ESE GWO 25 NW GLH 20 SSW LIT 45 N HOT 20 NNW FYV 20 ENE JLN 10 WNW TBN 60 NNW POF 25 SE MDH 25 NE OWB 35 NE LEX 15 SE HTS 30 NW SSU 20 WNW SHD 20 NW ABE 10 E BAF 10 WSW LCI EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN FL... ...MID ATLANTIC... TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL LIFT WILL ACT ON STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE CAROLINAS NEWD TO SRN NJ TO PROMOTE STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND RESULT IN PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ...SRN FL... LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL REMAINS VERY INTENSE IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF HURRICANE RITA. STRONGER FEEDER BAND CELLS TRACKING NWWD OR NNWWD WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150-300 M2/S2. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS CENTER OF RITA PASSES THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...OZARKS TO TN VALLEY... RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK CAP...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE TERRAIN FORCING ACROSS THE OZARKS...MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AIR MASS IS VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUSTAIN SEVERE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN CA TO SRN GREAT BASIN... AFTER A BIT OF A LULL...CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE LA BASIN. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND AND IMPINGE FURTHER ON ELEVATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME. SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. AN ISOLATED HAIL STORM OR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 00:48:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 19:48:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509210048.j8L0mhKJ001428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210046 SWODY1 SPC AC 210044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW FMY 20 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY 20 SE AYS 45 W SAV 45 WSW AGS 25 ESE ATL 15 NNE TCL 15 SE PBF 15 NE HOT 55 S HRO HRO 10 WNW UNO 25 SE CGI 25 SE BKW 15 WSW BWI 35 N EWR 15 WSW LCI 35 N BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AMA 30 ENE TCC 40 N TCC 30 SE TAD 10 SSW LHX 20 NNW LAA 55 WNW GCK 25 SSW GCK 40 S LBL 45 NE AMA 25 W AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S UKI 65 NNE SAC 45 S WMC 40 SSE ENV 20 WNW U28 20 E DRO 35 NW ABQ 40 WNW ONM 70 NE SAD 20 WNW SAD 10 S FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN FL... ...SRN FL... THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS HURRICANE RITA SW OF THE FL KEYS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WWD AWAY FROM SRN FL BUT OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE STILL OVER SRN FL ATTM. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT KEY WEST AND MIAMI FL SHOW SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 35 KT SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA MOVE OFF THE SRN FL COAST LATE. ...ERN NC/SE VA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SWIFT MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS VA AND NC...SUPPORTING SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC TROUGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 68-72 F ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THE STRONG ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING...THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. CONCERNING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LAPSE RATES BELOW 6.0 C/KM WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE SUGGESTING ANY HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND MARGINAL. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CA. THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NEWD AND A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY WEAK IN THE VALLEY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...AS STABILIZATION OCCURS THIS EVENING...STORM INTENSITY AND THE ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 06:00:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 01:00:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509210600.j8L60Dts000554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210558 SWODY1 SPC AC 210556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SW YKN 25 NNE OTG 65 NNE MSP 25 W IWD 45 S CMX 25 NE ESC 20 WNW TVC 30 SSE MBL 30 WSW MKG 25 WSW CGX 30 SSE MLI 15 W LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E OSC 15 S MBS 25 SSW AZO 30 E UIN 40 S IRK 50 NE SZL 35 NE CNU 25 NE ICT 20 NNE RSL 30 NNW RSL 50 E LIC 20 WNW PUB 25 N ALS 30 NNW SAF 15 WNW 4CR 45 NW GDP 70 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MEM 50 WNW MSL 20 ENE CBM 45 N MEI 15 NNW JAN 40 NNE HEZ MLU 25 N MLU 30 W GLH 45 ENE PBF 50 ENE LIT 55 SW JBR 30 N MEM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 40 SE EED 20 NNE DRA 10 NW TPH 35 E NFL 25 WNW WMC 50 NNE BOI DLN 35 N WEY 30 NE WEY 55 WSW COD 40 SE WRL 25 NNW CDR 30 SSW MHE 30 WNW FSD 30 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PNS 20 NNE MAI 45 NE ABY 30 SSE MCN 35 NNE MCN 35 S AHN 10 N CLT 60 E DAN 60 SW RIC 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS CA WILL OPEN AND SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY. THIS WILL KICK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS STRONG ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGHT TONIGHT. A LACK OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY NWD. IF SFC DEWPOINTS CAN INCREASE TO NEAR 60 F...SBCAPE VALUES COULD REACH THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN MN AND NERN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION OFF UNTIL EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS SRN MN OR NW IA WHERE INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SUGGESTING LIFT WILL INCREASE CAUSING STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. THE JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN FAR ERN NEB AND NW IA WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. FARTHER NORTHEAST...AN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE AND DIVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON THE AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN IA AND NRN IL. ..BROYLES.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 12:53:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 07:53:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509211253.j8LCr90D009821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211248 SWODY1 SPC AC 211247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SE OTG 35 NNW MKT 40 E BRD 30 ENE DLH 35 NE IWD 35 NNW IMT 45 S ESC 30 SE OSH 25 ESE MSN 20 SE DBQ 25 N OTM 40 W LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 45 SSE EED 55 NW EED 35 NNE TPH 40 E NFL 40 WSW WMC 50 NNE BOI DLN 35 NNE WEY 55 WSW COD 40 SE WRL 35 NNW CDR 15 SE MHE 35 NW ELO ...CONT... 110 E OSC 15 S MBS 25 SSW AZO 35 E UIN 55 SSW IRK 25 NNE CNU 25 NE ICT 25 N RSL 50 WSW GLD 20 WNW PUB 25 N ALS 30 NNW SAF 15 WNW 4CR 45 NW GDP 65 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CEW 20 SSE DHN 45 S MCN 45 NNE MCN 10 WNW CLT 65 SW RIC 20 NNE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N DYR 45 NW MSL 20 ENE CBM 50 NNW MEI 15 NNW JAN 40 NNE HEZ 15 NNW MLU 25 W GLH 40 ENE PBF 45 SW JBR 20 N DYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN NEB NEWD TO WI/WRN UPPER MI.... ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT... A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL MOVE EWD FROM SRN ALBERTA TO WRN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE CA CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NEWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...REACHING WY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP EWD TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN NEB NEWD TO WI/WRN UPPER MI. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS KS/ERN NEB WILL SPREAD NEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...AND BENEATH A PLUME OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MN...WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS WI TONIGHT. FARTHER SW...THE CAP MAY INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN NEB INTO IA IN RESPONSE TO LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING...AND DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER INITIATION. BY TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 16:35:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 11:35:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509211635.j8LGZKCo012781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211626 SWODY1 SPC AC 211625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SE OTG 25 NW MSP 35 NNE BRD 25 NNW ELO 75 NW CMX 65 ENE MQT 20 SE ESC 10 E MTW 15 ESE LNR 10 NNE CID 30 SSE DSM 40 W LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW IPL 45 W EED 40 NNE LAS 30 NW P38 40 S U31 10 E WMC 45 E BOI 15 SE DLN 20 ESE LVM 20 E COD 45 NNW CPR CDR 35 NNE ANW 10 N MHE 35 W AXN 10 W BJI 15 NW INL ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 25 SW FNT 15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PFN 45 NE ABY 10 WNW CLT 10 W RDU 35 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DYR 30 WSW CHA 10 W ANB 25 ENE MEI 50 S GLH 35 ENE ELD 25 SSE HOT 50 NNW LIT 15 ENE ARG DYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW BAND OF FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN SD/NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING THE IMPETUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WI. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOW AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. LOW LEVEL ASCENT NEAR LOW/WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AFTER OOZ SUGGESTS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CAP STRENGTH AFTER DARK WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MN...WHERE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS WI...AND DEVELOPS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF IA. ...WY/UT/CO... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER NV. BAND OF 50-60 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WY/CO/UT THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 20:05:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 15:05:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509212005.j8LK5E49019807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212002 SWODY1 SPC AC 212000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MTW 25 NW MKE 25 ENE DBQ 20 ESE ALO 45 WNW DSM 35 NNW OMA 25 S YKN FSD 45 SSW AXN 35 E BRD 20 ENE DLH 30 SW CMX 40 E MQT 20 SE ESC 15 NE MTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 ENE OSC 25 SW FNT 15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 75 SSW DMN ...CONT... 45 SE CZZ 45 W EED 40 NNE LAS 30 NW P38 40 S U31 10 E WMC 45 E BOI 15 SE DLN 20 ESE LVM 20 E COD 45 NNW CPR CDR 35 NNE ANW 10 N MHE 35 W AXN 10 W BJI 30 NNE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW PFN 45 NE ABY 10 WNW CLT 10 W RDU 50 NE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DYR 30 WSW CHA 10 W ANB 25 ENE MEI 50 S GLH 35 ENE ELD 25 SSE HOT 50 NNW LIT 15 ENE ARG DYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...WRN GREAT LAKES... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SD/NEB...IS ON TRACK TO AID IN STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MN WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY. AS THE IMPULSE MOVES EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD AID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE MAP DEPICTS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO NRN WI AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD TO SWRN NEB. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG FROM SRN MN INTO NRN WI. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA BASED ON RUC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF 10-12C CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST 100 J/KG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND CONTINUED HEATING NEAR LOW/WARM FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SCNTRL MN AND INTO WRN WI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS IN THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES EAST FROM SD/NEB AND SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF STORM INITIATION NEAR THE LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH FOR EWD MOVING CELLS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT 200 M2/S2. OVERALL...RELATIVELY HIGH LFC ABOVE 1.5KM SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS SERN MN AND SWRN WI AFTER DARK. WIND/HAIL THREAT WOULD CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI...AND POSSIBLY BACKBUILD INTO IA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT FROM NRN/CNTRL IA TO NEB LATER TODAY. 18Z RUC AND NAM FORECASTS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT CAP WILL HOLD ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS BUT GREATER THREAT/POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST FROM MN...PERHAPS INTO EXTREME IA...AND INTO WI. ...ID/UT/WY/... EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF 50-60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 00:56:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 19:56:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509220056.j8M0uUmD021164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220054 SWODY1 SPC AC 220053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MTW 25 NW MKE 25 ENE DBQ 20 ESE ALO 45 WNW DSM 35 NNW OMA 25 S YKN FSD 45 SSW AXN 40 E STC RHI 40 SSE IMT 15 NE MTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 ENE OSC 25 SW FNT 15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 75 SSW DMN ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 55 SE PRC 25 ESE BCE 10 WNW SLC 60 WNW BPI 50 NW CPR 10 WNW CDR 45 NNE ANW 25 E HON 25 NW AXN 10 WNW HIB 70 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W PNS 30 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE MID MO VLY... ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENING CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG A FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MN TO NCNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTN. THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING EXHIBITED 7.9 DEGREES C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...60 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND 2600 J/KG MLCAPE...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...HODOGRAPHS SHOW AN ENLARGED LOOP IN THE LOWEST 1KM...WITH NEARLY 30 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. IT APPEARS... HOWEVER...THAT THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR TORNADOES HAS PASSED GIVEN THE INCREASING LCLS/MIXING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE 70F DEW POINTS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING/INCREASING INHIBITION. RADAR SHOWS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINE AND WEAKEN AS WRN-MOST CELLS BEGIN TO MERGE/SEED THE TSTMS DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN WI. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE MPX SOUNDING AND THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...COLD POOL GENERATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING BASED ON RADAR AND THE INCREASED NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE THE INCREASING INHIBITION...THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO SERN MN AND CNTRL WI THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM THROUGHOUT WI AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SWLY LLJ. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A STRONG IMPULSE MIGRATING EWD FROM THE ERN GRT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEB LATER THIS EVENING...THEN TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR ISOLD LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NEB OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... DOWNSTREAM...GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES WITH RESPECT TO THE SWD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM...TSTMS MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN AND NRN IA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH WWD EXTENT OF THIS OCCURRING IS UNCERTAIN. THE THREAT IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SLGT RISK...HOWEVER. ...CNTRL ROCKIES... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN GRT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE INTERACTED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PW PLUME SITUATED ACROSS WRN CO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS AND H5 WINDS AOA 40 KTS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ORGANIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT WINDOW FOR ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAS PASSED AND ONLY ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS WRN CO. ..RACY.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 05:38:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 00:38:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509220538.j8M5cliO006283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220537 SWODY1 SPC AC 220535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CLE 25 NE DAY 10 NNE SLO 50 NNE SGF 45 SSW EMP 20 SSW SLN 25 NE CNK 30 SW DBQ 45 NE MKE 40 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE YUM 65 E BLH 45 NE IGM 15 NE PGA 15 NNW CNY 40 WSW CAG 30 ENE CAG 25 N LAR 45 W BFF 40 SW MHN 25 SE BUB 15 S MCW 40 NNE GRB 20 WSW ANJ ...CONT... 30 NNW BML PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 NNE GLS 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20 W BVO 60 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GRTLKS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE STRONGER WLYS ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND SWD ON THU AS A SERIES OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PHASE INTO THE NRN STREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS REGION. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL GRTLKS THU AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THU. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL FROM NRN LWR MI EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO NRN ONTARIO BY THU NIGHT...IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE CNTRL GRTLKS TO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRI. BUT... TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THU AND THU NIGHT. ...CNTRL/LWR GRTLKS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS IMPULSE WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD TSTMS FROM NRN LWR MI WWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY THU. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO DURING THE AFTN. THUS...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING EWD FROM THE CNTRL TO THE LWR GRTLKS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL PROBABLY BE INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH ONLY AN ISOLD HAIL THREAT ACROSS MOST OF LWR MI. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WSWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER HEATING WILL MAINTAIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM MO EWD TO IL...IND AND NRN OH. BUT...THE WARM LAYER BETWEEN H85-H7 OBSERVED IN EVENING SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN STRONG. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL EWD INTO NRN OH WHERE THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HERE... SURFACE BASED INITIATION COULD OCCUR BY MID-AFTN. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH...WHILE A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAIN MODE WILL BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH PERHAPS LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE EML WILL BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER EAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD INITIATE BY LATE AFTN ACROSS NRN KS/NRN MO OWING TO STRONG HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. BUT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR/N OF THE COLD FRONT MID-EVENING ONWARD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN KS AND NRN MO AS THE MAIN FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD. THESE STORMS COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL. ...FOUR-CORNERS REGION... DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SRN PERIPHERY OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRESENCE OF 30-40 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 12:54:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 07:54:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509221254.j8MCs24e030821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221252 SWODY1 SPC AC 221250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW ERI 10 SW CMH 35 NW EVV 15 NNW TBN 35 S EMP 30 SE SLN 15 N MHK 35 NNW IRK 20 NW MLI LNR 30 SW OSH 45 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 NNE GLS 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20 W BVO 60 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 25 SSE YUM 65 E BLH 45 NE IGM 15 NE PGA 15 NNW CNY 40 WSW CAG 30 ENE CAG 25 N LAR 45 W BFF 40 SW MHN 40 SSW SUX 25 ESE MKT 40 NNE GRB 20 WSW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM ERN KS TO LOWER MI/NW OH.... ...LOWER MO VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT... A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD TO QUEBEC...WHILE SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA MOVE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY IN A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT EWD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING TO SRN QUEBEC...AND THE ENEWD MOTION OF A SECONDARY LOW FROM ERN IA THIS MORNING TO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THESE LOWS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT / ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL WI AS OF 12Z / WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD TO THE SRN PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY. SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F OVER MO/IL. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA/NRN OH...POSSIBLY REACHING WRN PA/NY BY EARLY TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG/ IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND ASCENT WEAKEN THE CAP. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MOST CONVECTION WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE LINEAR MODES GIVEN THE MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 16:35:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 11:35:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509221635.j8MGZU6P009413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221626 SWODY1 SPC AC 221624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ERI 30 ESE MFD 20 NE IND 20 SW DNV 30 SSE BRL 25 ENE OTM 15 SSW DBQ MKE 30 WSW MBS 75 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE PSX 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20 SE END 40 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 85 S GBN 10 S PHX 10 SE FLG 20 SW BCE 50 NW 4HV VEL 50 NNW CAG 40 NNW LAR 10 W BFF 45 SW MHN 35 SSW EAR 10 WNW BIE 45 NW LWD 20 S LSE 40 NNE GRB 15 NE ANJ ...CONT... 45 NE EFK PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 55 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DLN 35 SSW LVM 40 SW COD 25 NW BPI 20 S MLD 15 NW ENV 15 SSE EKO 45 NNE BAM 50 NNW OWY 50 WNW SUN 25 SW DLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY... ...GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID MS VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UPPER MI INTO EASTERN NEB. PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...FROM CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN MO. SURFACE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OCCURRING. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI/NORTHERN IND. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING CAP STRENGTH WITH TIME...SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 06Z. ...NM/CO... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...SPREADING UVVS INTO PARTS OF NM/CO THROUGH THE DAY. PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROUGH...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THIS AREA. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 19:53:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 14:53:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509221954.j8MJsEtT031914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221951 SWODY1 SPC AC 221949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ERI 30 ESE MFD 20 NE IND 20 SW DNV 30 SSE BRL 20 N BRL 30 NNW MLI 20 SE MKE 30 WSW MBS 75 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE EFK PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 55 E ECG ...CONT... 65 ESE PSX 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20 SE END 40 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 85 S GBN 10 S PHX 10 SE FLG 20 SW BCE 50 NW 4HV VEL 50 NNW CAG 40 NNW LAR 10 W BFF 45 SW MHN 35 SSW EAR 15 SSW LNK 50 W DSM 50 NW DBQ 20 E GRB 25 NNW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DLN 35 SSW LVM 40 SW COD 25 NW BPI 20 W SLC 50 S ENV 40 SSE EKO 45 NNE BAM 50 NNW OWY 50 WNW SUN 25 SW DLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...EMBEDDED WITH A BELT OF 45-60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MID MO VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL LOWER MI WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS NWRN IL...NRN MO AND INTO SERN KS. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH WRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER IL. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY... TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF COLD FRONT N OF CHICAGO EWD ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI TO N OF DETROIT. WHILE MAJORITY OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION...THE WRN-MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY SURFACE-BASED. 18Z...ILX SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...EXHIBITING STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SOME CAPPING FOR MEAN-MIXED PARCELS. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT AS WELL AS RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH HEIGHT AS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS OVER CNTRL LOWER MI WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OR SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN OH TONIGHT. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS AIR MASS COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...4-CORNERS REGION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING STORM ACTIVITY OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM/SERN UT AND SRN CO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...LARGELY AS A RESULT OF STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 23 01:15:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 20:15:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509230114.j8N1EoGd029619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230110 SWODY1 SPC AC 230109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF JHW 15 SW FKL 15 W CMH 25 WSW IND 30 SE SPI 20 SSW PIA 30 N PIA 15 SW CGX 25 SW LAN 85 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 25 SE GFL 20 WSW POU CXY 45 W EKN 35 SE SDF 20 NNE POF 20 SSW JLN 20 SW END 40 WNW LBB 55 SE ELP ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 SE PHX 10 S FLG 20 SW PGA 45 ENE BCE 20 NNW U28 45 E VEL 50 SW LAR 35 ESE CYS 30 NW IML 50 NNE HLC 25 SSE BIE 25 W OTM 35 NW CGX 10 SSW GRR 70 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 45 ENE LFK 25 ENE GWO 10 NE RMG 15 SW CAE 40 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MQM WEY 35 NE JAC 15 W BPI 10 WNW SLC 40 W DPG 40 SE EKO 40 S OWY 45 NNE OWY 30 NW SUN 25 W MQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AREA... ...OH VALLEY AREA... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IND INTO CNTRL IL WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE S OF THE FRONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM IL THROUGH IND AND WRN OH WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FARTHER NEWD TOWARD PA AND NY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE STRONGER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH TIME. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SMALL SCALE BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ...WRN GULF COASTAL REGION... BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE CNTRL AND WRN GULF. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT AS RITA CONTINUES NWWD. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEEDED TO SUPPORT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL FRIDAY. ..DIAL.. 09/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 01:04:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 20:04:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509250104.j8P145RL017824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250101 SWODY1 SPC AC 250059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW HLC 10 NE GLD 35 E AKO 30 ENE SNY 15 NE MHN 40 SE 9V9 25 W BKX 15 WSW RWF 35 SE MKT 45 WSW ALO 15 NW DSM 20 ENE LNK 50 S EAR 35 WNW HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E 7R4 40 NW HEZ 20 E ELD 45 NE TXK 35 ESE PGO 20 SSE FYV 35 NE HRO 35 W POF 30 WNW DYR 15 NNW CBM 10 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 20 WNW LBE 10 SW EKN 35 ENE 5I3 25 W LOZ 35 SSE BNA 20 NE BHM 30 SE TLH ...CONT... 20 SSE BPT 25 NNW LCH 20 NW POE 25 SE GGG 25 SSE TYR 30 ESE DAL 25 SSE ADM 50 NW MLC 40 ENE BVO 50 NNE JLN 25 ESE MKC 10 NNW FLV 30 SE CNK 15 ENE GCK 40 S EHA 15 E CVS 40 SSW ROW 25 SE ALM 35 NW ALM 45 W RTN 15 SW GUC 25 WSW GJT 60 WNW 4HV 55 E ELY 50 WNW ENV 45 W SUN 40 WSW 27U 35 WNW DLN 25 SSE LVM 35 N SHR 25 NNW REJ 10 SE BIS 35 WNW FAR 30 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE FLO 30 ENE CAE 35 S CLT 45 ESE CLT 30 E FAY 30 SE OAJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB...SRN SD INTO PART OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS FROM ERN LA THROUGH MS AND ARK WELL TO THE E AND NE OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR SHREVEPORT LA. RITA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE A NWD OR NNEWD MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND MAY BEGIN TO SLOW ITS NWD MOTION. SOME DECREASE IN NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE...MAINLY FROM ARK...MS AND EXTREME WRN TN...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING SLOWLY NWD OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN NEB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NERN NEB WHERE STORMS MAY INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT FROM WRN AND CNTRL NEB INTO SRN AND WRN SD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN WY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 05:55:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 00:55:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509250555.j8P5taVe029476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250553 SWODY1 SPC AC 250552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SPI 30 NW HUF 25 ENE BMG 20 NE SDF 60 E BWG 40 WSW CHA 15 SE BHM 30 WSW SEM 20 ESE LUL 35 S JAN 45 E MLU 10 ESE PBF 45 S UNO 35 E VIH 30 SSE SPI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 10 WNW RUT 45 WSW ALB 20 SW IPT 20 NW BKW 10 SSE JKL 35 NNW TYS 15 ESE CHA 15 WNW LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 25 WSW GLS 30 S LFK 35 NNE GGG 30 SSE UMN 15 SW JLN 40 N END 35 NNW LBL 30 WSW COS 45 ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25 N JAC COD 20 SE GCC 40 WSW PHP 25 WNW 9V9 25 ENE ATY 25 NNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST BY NHC TO TURN NEWD ACROSS ARK SUNDAY TO NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WLYS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS E AND NE OF THE CENTER FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THIS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AND N OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD FROM RITA. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXISTS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OR S OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 13:59:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 08:59:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509251358.j8PDwhYm001204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251235 SWODY1 SPC AC 251234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SPI 30 NW HUF 25 ENE BMG 20 NE SDF 60 E BWG 40 WSW CHA 15 SE BHM 30 WSW SEM 20 ESE LUL 35 S JAN 45 E MLU 10 ESE PBF 45 S UNO 35 E VIH 30 SSE SPI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E STJ 25 WSW MHK 40 NNE RSL 15 NNW GRI 30 N OFK 10 ENE OTG 15 E MCW 35 N OTM 30 SW OTM 30 E STJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 30 S LFK 35 NNE GGG 30 SSE UMN 25 SSW JLN 20 NE END 25 NW LBL 30 WSW COS 45 ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25 N JAC 15 NNE COD 20 SE GCC 40 WSW PHP 25 NW 9V9 35 ENE ATY 60 N EAU 20 NE PLN ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 10 WNW RUT 30 NW POU 20 SW IPT 20 NW BKW 10 SSE JKL 35 NNW TYS 15 ESE CHA 15 WNW LGC 25 SSE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...LOWER MS AND WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS... FORMER HURRICANE RITA LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AR THIS AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY TONIGHT. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON THE 88D VWP'S WITH IN EXCESS OF 40KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR FROM MS NWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY. WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FILL THRU THE PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MINI-TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD FROM CURRENT POSITION NERN AR SWD THRU WRN MS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO MID 70S SUPPORT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS NOW PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND MOVING EWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL NEB THEN TO ERN CO. FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW SEWD PROGRESS TODAY UNTIL UPSTREAM VIGOROUS S/WV CURRENTLY CROSSING ROCKIES MOVES INTO HIGH PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ERN NEB INTO NRN KS WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. WITH AID FROM LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTAL LIFT...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..HALES/GUYER.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 17:38:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 12:38:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509251737.j8PHbhcv027741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251640 SWODY1 SPC AC 251639 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MTO 30 NW HUF 35 SSE IND 35 NE SDF 60 E BWG 20 W CHA 30 SE BHM 30 SW SEM 15 E LUL 35 NE MCB 30 SW JAN 25 S MKL 20 SE CGI 15 SE BLV 30 WSW MTO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE STJ 20 NNE MHK 25 WNW CNK 25 E HSI 25 E OLU 10 NW SPW 15 W MCW 45 NNW OTM 40 SW OTM 35 ENE STJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE OSC 40 NNE GRR 30 ENE MKG 25 WNW MKG 25 WSW MBL 10 N TVC 25 NNE APN 45 ENE OSC 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 25 WNW ORH 25 NNE POU 15 E IPT 25 N BKW 10 SSW JKL 15 ESE CHA 15 WNW LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 25 WSW GLS 30 ESE LFK 15 NNW ELD 30 SSE HRO 25 SSW JLN 20 NE END 25 NW LBL 30 WSW COS 45 ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25 N JAC 15 NNE COD 10 S 81V 30 SW PHP 10 SE HON 25 ESE RWF 15 SW CWA 20 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 10 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 30 SSW MER 45 NNW BFL LAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE TN/LWR OH AND LWR MS VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER THE LWR MO VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LWR MI... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF RITA APPEAR TO BE BECOMING RAPIDLY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS AS RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA ALSO SHOW APPARENT IMPULSE IN THE WLYS OVER MN/WRN WI... DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WY AND CO. AT LWR LEVELS...EXPECT DIFFUSE SURFACE WAVE NOW IN WI TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MOVE E/NE ALONG STALLED FRONT INTO NRN MI. TRAILING PART OF FRONT W OF WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. ...TN/LWR OH/LWR MS VLYS... CIRCULATION LEFT FROM RITA IS NOW OVER NE AR. SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO NEAR EVV/SDF BY 12Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW NOW OVER CNTRL MS SHOULD REACH WRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NE INTO ERN KY EARLY MONDAY. MAIN CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SE/S FROM RITA...ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF TSTM/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORMS...AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS NRN MS/W TN...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MOST STRONGLY BACKED. ADDITIONAL...MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS IN ZONE OF STRONGER HEATING OVER AL AND MIDDLE TN. 50+ KT SLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS REGION AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. BUT A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY NWD INTO PARTS OF KY AND THE LWR OH VLY. ...LWR MO VLY... MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR MO VLY REGION TONIGHT AS FAIRLY POTENT IMPULSE OVER WY/CO CONTINUES EWD. SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT NOW IN S CNTRL NEB/NW KS SHOULD CONTINUE SE TODAY. E OF THERE...BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW SE PROGRESS ACROSS IA/WI UNTIL WY/CO SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. EXPECT MODERATE BUT CAPPED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SE NE/NRN KS/NW MO/SW IA WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY YIELD STORM INITIATION ALONG BOUNDARY. MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER...INITIATION WILL WAIT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER COOLING ALOFT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED. 50+ KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL. ...NRN MI... MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 19:53:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 14:53:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509251952.j8PJqiAx028867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251950 SWODY1 SPC AC 251948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE STJ 10 NW MHK 15 ESE CNK 30 WNW BIE 15 E OLU 30 NNW OMA 50 W DSM 45 ENE DSM 40 SW OTM 35 ENE STJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EVV 40 N SDF 25 SSE LUK 35 E LEX 10 NNW CSV 15 E ANB 10 SSW TOI 50 N MOB 35 NE MCB 30 SW JAN 35 SSE MKL 55 WSW HOP 20 NE PAH 30 NNW EVV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 25 WNW ORH 25 NNE POU 30 E CXY 35 NE SSU 30 SSE JKL 35 E CHA 15 NE LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 25 SSW LCH 20 NW HEZ 40 WSW DYR 60 SE VIH 20 N SZL 35 ENE EMP 15 WSW HUT IML 30 SE DEN 35 SSE RKS 45 NW LND 20 ENE COD SHR 35 WNW RAP 20 SE ANW 20 NNW OTG 30 ENE VOK 20 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 30 SSW MER 45 NNW BFL LAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MS/AL NWD INTO PARTS OF TN/KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS NEWD INTO LOWER MI... ...MS/AL NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA ARE NOW CENTERED OVER NERN AR. PROMINENT RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION IS INDICATED ATTM INVOF THE MS /AL BORDER -- WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD/CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MS AND AL. AREA WSR-88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES /AS HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE LOWEST KM/...FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD SLOWLY NWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KY. ...SERN NEB/NERN KS ENEWD TO LOWER MI... BAROCLINIC ZONE -- COMPRISED OF A FRONT AND SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOWS -- EXTENDS FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB ENEWD ACROSS SRN IA / SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE GENERALLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG MOST OF THIS BOUNDARY...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING OVER SERN NEB/NERN KS AND INTO SWRN IA/FAR NWRN MO HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. AIRMASS ACROSS THE SERN NEB/NERN KS REGION REMAINS CAPPED...WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH LATEST FBY /FAIRBURY NEB/ PROFILER INDICATING INCREASINGLY-STRONG FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE MID TROPOSPHERE...RESULTING LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER ENEWD ALONG BOUNDARY...STORMS HAVE SHOWN MARGINAL/TRANSIENT ORGANIZATION -- BOTH ON THE STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE. STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO...OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL HOWEVER...GENERAL LACK OF FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 00:48:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 19:48:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509260048.j8Q0mF3i002712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260046 SWODY1 SPC AC 260044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ANB 25 NW AUO 25 S AUO 20 ESE TOI 30 SW TOI 70 NNE MOB 35 W LUL 40 SSW JAN 25 WSW JAN 50 WSW CBM 20 SE TUP 30 N MSL 45 S BNA 35 WNW CHA 25 SW CHA 20 ENE ANB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 35 NW GFL 25 SSE SYR 25 ENE DUJ PKB 20 NE JKL 35 E CHA 15 NE LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 55 SW PNS 30 WNW GPT 25 SSE HEZ 30 N HEZ 30 SE GLH 20 WNW TUP 45 ENE DYR 15 E MDH 35 NNW STL 25 WSW P35 20 ESE HSI 20 NNW MCK IML 25 SE FCL 35 SW LAR 15 NW RWL 45 NW CPR 20 SSE GCC 30 WSW PHP 15 N 9V9 20 NNW OTG 30 ENE VOK 170 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 20 SSE PRB 25 NE SBA 10 WSW LAX 65 W SAN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP S... ...DEEP S... A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING NWD INTO REMNANT RITA CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS MS/AL THIS AFTN. MINIMAL CINH AND CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS. A 40-KT SLY LLJ BENEATH WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CREATED VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH WERE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. 00Z SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONGER INSTABILITY HAS COLLAPSED IN AREAL EXTENT...NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL/SRN MS AND CNTRL AL WITH DECREASING CAPE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. 00Z BMX/JAN SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT 1300-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND 0-1KM SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. AS REMNANT RITA CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY...THE H92-H85 JET SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE TN VLY/MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. AS A RESULT...THE TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER ABOUT MID- EVENING. ...CORN BELT AND MIDWEST... SURFACE BASED TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS THE CORN BELT AS HEATING HAS BEEN AT A PREMIUM AND INHIBITION TOO STRONG. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS WEAK OWING TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH REMNANT RITA. STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ECNTRL IA ACROSS SERN WI INTO CNTRL LWR MI. SUSPECT THAT THE TSTMS ARE ROOTED ATOP A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z DTX/ILX SOUNDINGS. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EFFECTIVELY DECREASING WIND RISKS. WILL MAINTAIN SUB-SLGT WIND PROBABILITIES IN CASE A STRONGER TSTM DOWNDRAFT MAY BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER. HAIL DOES NOT SEEM TO MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 05:31:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 00:31:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509260531.j8Q5V1mR014726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260529 SWODY1 SPC AC 260527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ORF 55 N RWI 20 N RDU 35 NNW GSO 15 NW PSK 15 E EKN 10 WSW AOO 20 N IPT 25 NW MSV PSF 10 SE ORH 20 NE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW GLS 40 W HOU 40 SE AUS 35 NW AUS 40 W ACT 25 SSW DAL 45 SSE MLC 20 SE FYV PAH 30 ESE MVN 20 SSW MTO 45 NW ALN 25 ENE IRK 40 NNE IRK 35 NW BRL 35 ENE MLI 40 NW BEH 65 ESE OSC ...CONT... 95 W CAR 25 W 3B1 50 S BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SBA 50 E MRY 25 NNE SFO 40 N UKI 40 NNW SVE 35 WNW LOL 50 NNW U31 55 ESE U31 50 WNW P38 35 SW DAG 35 SSW LGB 35 SW SBA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD...REACHING THE OH VLY MON EVE AND THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z TUE. REMNANT RITA WILL BE EJECTED QUICKLY FROM THE TN VLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON AFTN THEN OUT TO SEA BY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD FROM THE GRTLKS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE UPPER OH VLY AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY MON EVE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS MON AFTN. ...MID/UPPER OH VLY EWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC... RICH LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD FROM THE TN VLY/ CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND ON MON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH. BY MID-AFTN...MID AND UPPER 60S DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON AS FAR N AS SRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN NY THROUGH THE OH AND TN VLYS. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AT LEAST INITIALLY...ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS/OH VLY. BUT...ALONG/E OF THE MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SOME HEATING...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY. COMBINATION OF UPPER SUPPORT FROM REMNANT RITA AND APPROACHING MIDWEST TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY AND/OR DEVELOP VCNTY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM CNTRL PA SWD INTO ERN WV BY MID-AFTN. TSTMS WILL THEN LIKELY GROW STRONGER AS THEY APPROACH SERN NY...ERN PA AND CNTRL VA BY LATE AFTN...EVOLVING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ALREADY BE QUITE STRONG AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL PROBABLY SPREAD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS LATE MON EVE AS A FORCED SQUALL-LINE TYPE OF SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE OH VLY MONDAY AFTN...IN WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ATOP 60S DEW POINTS AND 60-65 KTS OF H5 CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...ARKLATEX REGION... A COUPLE MEMBERS OF THE 21Z SPC SREF SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION MON EVE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF MODEST MOISTURE ARE POSITIVES FOR CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED FROM RITA...BUT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE MAY AUGMENT COLD DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION/ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY/GUYER.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 12:20:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 07:20:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509261220.j8QCKFbP025200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261217 SWODY1 SPC AC 261215 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 W CAR 25 W 3B1 50 S BHB ...CONT... 50 SSW GLS 40 W HOU 40 SE AUS 35 NW AUS 40 W ACT 25 SSW DAL 45 SSE MLC 30 SE FYV 25 ESE UMN 30 SW SZL 30 NNW SZL 35 WSW BRL 30 SSE CGX 25 SSE MKG 65 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LGB 45 SW SBA 35 W PRB 20 SE SJC 40 N UKI 40 NNW SVE 35 WNW LOL 50 NNW U31 30 E ELY 45 WNW 4HV 50 ESE PGA 50 ENE PHX 40 SSE EED 25 NE TRM 35 SSW LGB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... REMNANTS OF RITA REFLECTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY BEING FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT FROM MI SWWD INTO OK. ALOFT A FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH ENTERING WRN OH VALLEY WILL REACH ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND PCPN ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG LOW/MID WIND FIELDS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS NOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TODAY FOR SUPPORT OF STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THUS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE RISK E OF THE APPALACHIANS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 16:54:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 11:54:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509261653.j8QGrt1X028264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261629 SWODY1 SPC AC 261628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 55 E CLL 35 SSW TYR 40 N PRX MKO 15 WNW JLN SZL 40 NNW COU 35 SSW SPI BMG 20 W DAY 35 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EKA 45 SE MHS 30 NW NFL 50 ESE U31 30 NNE U24 25 W U28 25 WSW PGA 45 SSW GCN 45 SE EED 25 NNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA INDICATE THAT REMNANTS OF "RITA" HAVE BECOME NEARLY COMPLETELY ABSORBED INTO INCREASING WLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE UPR OH VLY/NERN U.S. UPSTREAM IMPULSE WHICH WAS OVER WY/CO YESTERDAY HAS ADVANCED TO IA/MO. THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY TODAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST BY EARLY TUESDAY AS RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE RCKYS/HI PLNS. DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD WLY IMPULSE AND REMNANTS OF RITA WILL PROGRESS E TO THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NRN AND MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT. SRN PART OF FRONT WILL PROGRESS MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN GULF CST REGION AND SOUTHEAST. ...MID ATLANTIC/NERN STATES... A MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AREA CLOSE TO LOW/MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA. LATER TODAY... LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IA/MO TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY FROM MD/PA NWD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE E OFF THE CST BY EARLY TUESDAY. PREFRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. THUS...DESPITE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SHALLOW SUPERCELLS /SSWLY LLJ AOA 50 KTS/...LIMITED LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. A FEW CELLS MAY...NEVERTHELESS...YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ERN PA/NJ NEWD INTO NEW ENG LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO ERN VA/NC LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ...ERN GULF CST REGION... RADAR AND VWP DATA SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER ATTM OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FROM PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER SRN MS/AL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IS TROUGH NOW EXTENDING NNE/SSW ACROSS ERN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. AREA W OF VORT IS STRONGLY CAPPED...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT BOTH W AND E OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS...IN SOME SENSE...A WEAK WARM FRONT...WITH THE WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WITH VORT MAX LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN A KINEMATIC PROFILE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL/SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING/WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE NEW STORMS INVOF THE VORT. IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM...A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND VEERING WIND PROFILES PRESENT AT LOW LEVELS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 19:40:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 14:40:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509261939.j8QJdsTM031655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261937 SWODY1 SPC AC 261935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE GLS 50 ESE CLL 25 W CLL 15 NNW ACT 30 NW PRX 25 SE MKO 20 NNW FYV 20 SE UNO 25 N DYR 35 S CKV 40 NNW CSV 55 W UNI 30 NE FDY 75 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW EKA 45 SE MHS 30 NW NFL 50 ESE U31 30 NNE U24 25 W U28 25 WSW PGA 45 SSW GCN 45 SE EED 60 WSW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC... WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTEND ROUGHLY 100-200MI AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR/DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONFIRM THIS MORE FOCUSED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WHERE SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BENEATH PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WIND SHIFT. WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITHIN WEAK LAPSE RATE/MEAGER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. ...SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE... SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS REMNANT UPPER VORT CENTER DROPS SWD ACROSS ERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF THICKER CLOUDINESS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER VORT. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT HAIL BUT RATHER A BRIEF TORNADO IS ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. ..DARROW.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 00:50:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 19:50:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509270049.j8R0nj5D030285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270047 SWODY1 SPC AC 270046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 45 ENE PIE 10 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE 25 ESE CLT 25 E TRI 25 SSW CRW 25 S AOO 40 SE BUF 10 SSE ART 20 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW EKA 50 NE RBL 20 SSW RNO 35 ESE BIH 40 E NID 40 SSE DAG 30 WNW SAN 60 WSW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN STATES... BROAD WARM CONVEYER BELT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN. ABSENCE OF HEATING AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES KEPT INSTABILITY VERY LOW AND TSTMS ISOLD. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OH VLY ATTM. ASSOCIATED COOLING IN THE H7-H5 LAYER SPREADING ATOP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM ERN NY INTO CNTRL PA. THE COLUMN WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY ALOFT AND COULD SUPPORT EVENING TSTMS DOWNSTREAM FROM ABOUT THE NYC AREA NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS /ALB...IAD IN PARTICULAR/ SHOW A STABLE LAYER WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS /POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/ TO THE SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS EVENING... BUT OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL. ..RACY.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 05:51:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 00:51:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509270551.j8R5pWMC029326@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270549 SWODY1 SPC AC 270546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TUS 20 SSW PHX 35 ENE TRM 50 E NID 45 ENE SCK 35 WSW TVL 15 N LOL 20 N OWY 30 WNW IDA 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 35 NNE CYS 25 NE SNY 20 WSW BBW 20 SW OLU 15 WSW FNB 20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 15 SE CNM 75 SE ELP ...CONT... 60 E CRP 35 NW VCT 20 E AUS 50 SSE DAL 50 N GGG 35 SSE TXK 15 W MLU 40 NW BTR 25 ENE MSY PNS 45 ESE MCN 35 SSW FLO 45 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE CMX 40 S CMX 35 WSW RHI 20 NW EAU 40 N MSP BRD 40 W HIB 40 E INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM WLYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON TUE. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY WED. A CUT-OFF LOW WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL EJECT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TUE AFTN/NITE AS AN OPEN WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN TROUGH...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY WED MORNING. AN OLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. ...GRT BASIN... PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN A WARM CONVEYER EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GRT BASIN TUE AFTN. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETARD HEATING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. BUT... PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TSTMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IF MORE INSTABILITY INDEED MATERIALIZE. ...CNTRL PLAINS... CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES DURING TUE AFTN IS APT TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING/COOLING. THE PLAINS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE AFTN...BUT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NRN KS/NEB...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SWD. MUCAPE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE LIMITED AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 30 KTS LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH/SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..RACY/GUYER.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 12:28:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 07:28:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509271227.j8RCRp04017783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271225 SWODY1 SPC AC 271223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW TUS 20 SSW PHX 35 ENE TRM 30 WNW DRA 25 SSW NFL 20 WSW LOL 20 N OWY 30 WNW IDA 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 45 W BFF 10 SE AIA 25 SW OFK 15 WSW FNB 20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 15 SE CNM 75 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 30 N VCT 40 WSW CLL 50 SSE DAL 50 N GGG 35 SSE TXK 15 W MLU 40 NW BTR 25 ENE MSY PNS 45 ESE MCN 35 SSW FLO 35 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE CMX 40 S CMX 35 WSW RHI 20 NW EAU 35 W MSP 30 ENE AXN 40 W HIB 40 E INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG TROUGH MOVES ESEWD FROM WRN CANADA INTO NCENTRAL U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY A COOL FALL LIKE AIR MASS. UPPER LOW INITIALLY CA/NV BORDER WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO UT BY TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES/PRECEDES THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NV/UT/NRN AZ. WHILE THE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE LIMITED OVERALL INSTABILITY AND REDUCED HEATING FROM THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD THRU THE PLAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. ..HALES/GUYER.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 16:48:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 11:48:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509271647.j8RGljWw017451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271630 SWODY1 SPC AC 271629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 WNW GBN 25 NE TRM 25 ENE DAG 35 WNW DRA 25 SSW NFL 20 WSW LOL 35 NNW OWY 50 SW MQM 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 45 W BFF 10 SE AIA 25 SW OFK 15 WSW FNB 20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 20 ESE CNM 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE MQT 25 WNW RHI 20 NW EAU 35 WNW MSP 35 N AXN 20 WSW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 55 SSE AUS 20 NNE AUS 40 NNE ACT 40 S PRX 30 E TXK 15 WNW MLU 30 NNW BTR 10 NNE MSY 25 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 SSE ATL 30 NE AGS 30 SE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN THE POLAR WLY OVER THE N PACIFIC IN RECENT DAYS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NOAM THIS PERIOD. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS FLOW...NOW OVER SRN BC/NRN ID...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SE INTO THE NRN PLNS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO...EXISTING SRN BRANCH LOW OVER WRN NV EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD INTO UT. ...UT/WRN CO... 60+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NV UPR LOW WILL SHIFT ENE ACROSS UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...ENHANCING DEEP SHEAR OVER REGION. RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA DEPICT CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SUPPORTING BANDS OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION/STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE THE OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN LIMITED /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/...BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION AS HEATING RESULTS IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH UPR SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF SMALL SCALE BOW SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN UT INTO WRN CO. FARTHER NW...A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL CLOSER TO RESIDUAL UPR LOW CENTER INTO NE NV/NW UT. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NRN PLNS. NEVERTHELESS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS OVER CNTRL HI PLNS TONIGHT... SPREADING E INTO THE LWR PLNS/MID AND LWR MO VLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...E TX/WRN LA... A POCKET OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF WEAK LOW/CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE SABINE RIVER VLY...WHERE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP NLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE A LIMITED CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL...STRONG AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE SUCH DEVELOPMENT. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 19:59:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 14:59:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509271959.j8RJx8aO001197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271956 SWODY1 SPC AC 271955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 WNW GBN 25 NE TRM 25 ENE DAG 35 WNW DRA 25 SSW NFL 20 WSW LOL 35 NNW OWY 50 SW MQM 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 45 W BFF 10 SE AIA 25 SW OFK 15 WSW FNB 20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 20 ESE CNM 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE MQT 25 WNW RHI 20 NW EAU 35 WNW MSP 35 N AXN 20 WSW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 40 SSW CLL 55 N CLL 40 W TXK 10 NNE HOT 30 ENE PBF 50 ENE MLU 30 S HEZ 10 NNE MSY 25 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 SSE ATL 30 NE AGS 30 SE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN MOIST PLUME EXTENDING FROM NRN AZ...ACROSS UT INTO WRN CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST AS MAIN CONVEYOR IS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...200-400 J/KG MLCAPE...REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS BENEATH STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS. IN FACT...42KT WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED AT EGE AT 19Z INVOF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS UT INTO WRN CO WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL FARTHER WEST BENEATH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. ...EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD DEPICTS WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CONFLUENT ZONE ALONG THE SABINE RIVER OF SERN TX/WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG FROM SWRN LA...NWWD TO NEAR VERY WEAK SFC LOW NEAR LFK. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR LCH...PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BY TRAJECTORIES OFF NRN GULF. LATEST THINKING IS VERTICAL PROFILES WILL NOT SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 00:51:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 19:51:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509280051.j8S0pObA015441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280049 SWODY1 SPC AC 280047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE SOW 65 NE PHX 50 E IGM 60 E LAS 10 N TPH 35 NW U31 35 NW EKO 45 S TWF 30 NW MLD 15 W WEY 30 NNW LVM 40 NW 3HT 10 WSW LWT 60 WSW MLS 40 SW 4BQ 45 WNW CDR 25 E AIA 30 E MHN 15 WSW OFK 40 WNW OMA 20 SSW FNB 30 E EMP 30 N END 50 W GAG 30 NW TCC 10 NNE 4CR 40 NW TCS 55 SE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE MQT 40 W MQT 55 W RHI 65 NNE MSP 35 NNE BRD 35 NW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW GLS 40 WNW BPT LFK 35 SSE GGG 35 SE SHV 15 WNW ESF 15 E LFT 45 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 25 NW DHN 20 NNE ABY 10 S SSI 30 SE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... SRN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE WAS TRANSLATING ACROSS NV THIS EVENING WITH WEAK PHASING INTO THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS SINKING SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL WARM CONVEYER BELTS HAVE EVOLVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUING AS UPPER FORCING SPREADS EWD INTO THE PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE. PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF SWLY H5 FLOW HAS AIDED IN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY. ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS HAVE FAVORED WCNTRL-CNTRL CO WHERE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCURRED TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. DOWNSTREAM...LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE PRIMARY WLYS DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING...REACHING A WI...IA...NRN KS LINE BY 12Z. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WAS CAPPED PER THE 00Z SOUNDINGS...BUT CONTINUED MOISTENING...VIA ASCENT AND ADVECTION OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALOFT OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND NEB. SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE...BUT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. ..RACY.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 12:29:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 07:29:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509281228.j8SCSX2k023915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281225 SWODY1 SPC AC 281224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE SHV 25 SSW TYR 20 SSE DAL 10 WSW DUA 35 SW MKO 35 N CNU 20 ESE MKC JEF 45 ESE TBN 55 ENE LIT 15 ESE SHV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 65 WNW SAD 40 N IGM 35 NNW SGU 50 SE U24 20 ENE EGE 15 ENE COS 15 NW LAA 40 NNE GCK 25 E HLC 45 ESE HSI 10 N SUX 15 N SPW 45 SSE RST 45 SE MBL 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 20 SW MSS 30 N GSO 40 ENE CLT 30 NE FLO ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 25 NW COT 65 NE P07 40 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...... ...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S... A VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH SWEEPS RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL U.S. REACHING GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THU. A STRONG PUSH OF POLAR AIR IS SPREADING SEWD WITH THE COLD FRONT AT 12Z EXTENDING FROM SERN MN SWWD ACROSS SWRN IA THEN WWD INTO ERN CO. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY SE TODAY EXTENDING FROM NEAR STL SWWD ACROSS NWRN AR INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AM FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD WITH THE FRONT CATCHING UP WITH IT BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT NWD THRU OK INTO ERN KS. THIS CONTINUES TO FUEL ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AIDED BY A 40KT LLJ. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THRU THE 90S ACROSS TX INTO SRN OK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON FROM ERN OK SWWD INTO N TX WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REQUIRE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR HEATING TO WEAKEN CIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE NRN PORTION OF RISK AREA. MODELS ALL HAVE A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK/WRN OK/SWRN MO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SWD INTO NERN TX/LA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AND THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRE-FRONTAL INITIATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE RISK AREA...HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS OF 30-35DEG F....IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED WIND THREAT PROVIDED BY THE STRONG FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...S FL... WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING EWD ACROSS S FL TODAY. WITH LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7C/KM AND MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...SRN ROCKIES REGION... UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING SEWD WILL STALL ALONG UT/AZ BORDER TODAY. SWLY FLOW AROUND LOW CONTINUING TO DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS ERN AZ/NM. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN VICINITY AND E OF UPPER LOW. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 16:35:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 11:35:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509281634.j8SGYnBk005508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281632 SWODY1 SPC AC 281630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SHV 50 WNW LFK 25 SSW DAL 25 W DUA 30 E TUL 45 NE CNU 45 NE SZL 15 SE CMI 25 N EVV 20 SW ARG 20 ESE SHV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 15 NNE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 50 ENE PHX 40 N IGM 35 NNW SGU 50 ESE U24 30 WNW 4FC 20 N COS 15 SE LHX 50 N EHA 25 E DDC 15 NE HUT 35 NW TOP 55 NW LWD 40 SW LSE 80 NNE MQT ...CONT... 10 NE MSS 25 NW HGR 30 N HKY 40 S CLT 30 ESE ILM ...CONT... 20 W MFE 25 NW COT 65 NE P07 40 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES E/SE INTO THE OH VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ...LEAVING OLD UPR LOW ADRIFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS IMPULSE SHOULD REACH AN APN/HUF/CGI/LIT/ DFW/MAF LINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS/LWR MS VLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. ...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ORIENTED NNE/SSW ACROSS SRN KS/OK AND NW TX...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING S INTO THE SRN PLNS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SE AND IS EVENTUALLY OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS TX AND SRN/ERN OK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP...WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG FROM ERN OK SW INTO TX. SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND NEWD INTO NRN AR AND CNTRL/SRN MO. STRONG ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING E ON SRN FRINGE OF PLNS SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MOST OF SLIGHT RISK REGION CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RAISES DOUBT AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE- BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT COMBINATION OF FRONTAL UPLIFT AND UNUSUALLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG IMMEDIATE FRONT/TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...MOST LIKELY IN NRN PART OF RISK AREA. DEVELOPMENT MAY THEN OCCUR SWD ALONG FRONT/TROUGH INTO NE TX THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT... AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WIND AND HAIL IF SURFACE-BASED TSTMS DO FORM /HIGH CAPE COUPLED WITH LARGE SUB CLOUD LAYER T-TD SPREADS/ ...A SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED. CONSIDERABLE POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER AR/SE OK AND NE TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY SEWD INTO NW LA. ...SRN/CNTRL FL... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ON WRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX LOW LATITUDE UPR LOW CENTERED E OF PBI. MIA MORNING RAOB...WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM AND PW CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF S FL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WIND PROFILES ATTM SHOW WEAK ESELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM /ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ERN GULF/ VEERING TO 20 KTS SWLY AT MID LEVELS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WIND FIELD...AND WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY STORMS. SOME OF WHICH MAY WEAKLY ROTATE...MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND YIELD WET MICROBURSTS/HAIL. ...SRN RCKYS/FOUR CORNERS... UT UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE INTO NRN AZ TODAY. SW FLOW AROUND LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE NE ACROSS ERN AZ/NM...AND WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION. COMBINATION OF 35+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...PWS CLOSE TO 1 INCH AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY SE OF LOW INTO NW/N CNTRL NM. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 19:49:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 14:49:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509281949.j8SJn8IG028797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281946 SWODY1 SPC AC 281945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SHV 10 W GGG 25 E DAL 10 NE DUA 35 NW PGO UMN 35 E SGF UNO 50 W ARG 20 WSW LIT 40 NE SHV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW MFE 25 NW COT 65 NE P07 35 S ELP ...CONT... 65 WSW FHU 50 ENE PHX 40 N IGM 35 ENE P38 45 WSW PUC 30 WNW 4FC 20 N COS 10 SSE LHX 35 S DHT 25 NE PVW 40 S LTS 35 S OKC 10 SSW CNU 25 SW SZL 40 SE UIN 25 NNE BMI 20 W MKG 20 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE MSS 25 NW HGR 30 N HKY 40 S CLT 45 ESE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MO TO NERN TX... ...MO TO NERN TX... SFC PRESSURES ARE RISING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH HAVE FORCED A WIND SHIFT DEEP INTO OK AND NWRN TX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN TX INTO WRN AR ALLOWING STEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. SHALLOW CONVECTION IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN OK...BUT IS STRUGGLING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A FEW HOURS. ONE PARTICULAR PROBLEM IS THE SLOPE OF THE FRONT AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WIND SHIFT. IF THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM IN AN ELEVATED FASHION...THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM THERMAL PROFILES. HOWEVER...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN EVOLVE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NERN TX INTO WRN AR...AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN MO. OTHER CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THIS REGION WILL BE IMPEDED BY POOR LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. ...ELSEWHERE... AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...WITH STORM MERGERS AND PROPAGATIONAL AFFECTS FORCING CONVECTION INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...INTENSITY AND DURATION OF ANY PARTICULAR EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER WEST...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION...ESPECIALLY NM. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEPER MOIST PLUME WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. REF SWOMCD 2288. ..DARROW.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 00:58:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 19:58:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509290057.j8T0vlZr024376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290055 SWODY1 SPC AC 290054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SHV TYR 35 NNE DAL 30 WSW PGO 25 ENE PGO 20 S MVN EVV 30 NW HOP MKL GLH SHV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ART LBE 40 SE LOZ 55 NNW AHN 45 ESE ILM ...CONT... 20 SSE CRP 15 WSW ALI 35 NNE DRT 60 WSW MRF ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU 35 N SAD GUP GJT EGE 30 S 4FC 40 SW COS RTN 35 S DHT HOB BGS ABI 35 WSW MLC 55 NW POF MTO 15 NW SBN HTL 45 NNE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH VALLEY TO NE TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH 29/12Z...WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING SEWD OVER MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...ARKLATEX REGION AND CENTRAL/WRN TX. ...MID MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX AREA... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...INCLUDING PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EVIDENT FROM WRN AR SWWD ACROSS DFW METROPLEX AS OF 00Z. REF SPC WWS 822...823...RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM FCST INFORMATION. ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY AIDED BY DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- ESPECIALLY OVER N-CENTRAL/NE TX -- AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. MODIFIED 00Z FWD RAOB SUGGEST JUST A FEW DEG C COOLING...WHETHER DIABATICALLY OR FROM POSTFRONTAL CAA...IS NEEDED TO REMOVE NEARLY ALL SBCAPE GIVEN DEEPLY HEATED/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER JUST BENEATH 500 MB LEVEL. FARTHER NE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE BEFORE 29/06Z...IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL OF MAINLY MARGINAL SEVERITY. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STILL FARTHER NE ACROSS OH VALLEY AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH GEN TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT REGION. ...NM... DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH HAIL AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AS SHOWN IN ABQ RAOB SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...HOWEVER SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. ..EDWARDS.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 05:46:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 00:46:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509290546.j8T5kNj8009236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290544 SWODY1 SPC AC 290543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 40 WNW SAD PGA 45 SSE VEL 35 ESE CAG DEN LHX 40 ENE CVS INK 65 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW LRD 45 WSW TPL GGG TUP TYS BLF 40 N SHD ITH 40 NE UCA MPV EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH UPCOMING DAY-1 PERIOD AS INTENSE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LH SWWD ACROSS WRN KY...SRN AR AND W TX -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE SURGING SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EWD OVER MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- IS FCST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EJECT EWD ACROSS ERN ROCKIES INTO DAY-2. ...NERN CONUS... PRIND LOW-TOPPED...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS..SUPERIMPOSED ON ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE FCST DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD -- SHIFTING FROM MID ATLANTIC EARLY-MID MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY IS FCST TO BE MINIMAL OVER MOST OF REGION...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG...HOWEVER ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MAUL -- MOIST ABSOLUTELY-UNSTABLE LAYER -- TO DEVELOP IN ERN NY AND SHIFT EWD FOR A FEW HOURS OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND. ...NM AND SMALL PARTS OF ADJACENT 4-CORNERS STATES... ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMBINATION OF OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC COOLING DIMINISH CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST UNDER COLD CORE REGION OF LOW. FARTHER SE...LOW LEVEL ELY AND SLY WINDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH WRN PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE AND LOCALLY MODIFIED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NM. IN COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX S AND SE OF LOW...THIS ALSO WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO ROTATE AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM IS THERMODYNAMIC -- MARGINAL MOISTURE AND LACK OF MORE VIGOROUS HEATING. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 05:46:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 00:46:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509290547.j8T5lQ8f009654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290544 SWODY1 SPC AC 290543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 40 WNW SAD PGA 45 SSE VEL 35 ESE CAG DEN LHX 40 ENE CVS INK 65 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW LRD 45 WSW TPL GGG TUP TYS BLF 40 N SHD ITH 40 NE UCA MPV EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH UPCOMING DAY-1 PERIOD AS INTENSE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LH SWWD ACROSS WRN KY...SRN AR AND W TX -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE SURGING SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EWD OVER MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- IS FCST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EJECT EWD ACROSS ERN ROCKIES INTO DAY-2. ...NERN CONUS... PRIND LOW-TOPPED...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS..SUPERIMPOSED ON ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE FCST DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD -- SHIFTING FROM MID ATLANTIC EARLY-MID MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY IS FCST TO BE MINIMAL OVER MOST OF REGION...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG...HOWEVER ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MAUL -- MOIST ABSOLUTELY-UNSTABLE LAYER -- TO DEVELOP IN ERN NY AND SHIFT EWD FOR A FEW HOURS OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND. ...NM AND SMALL PARTS OF ADJACENT 4-CORNERS STATES... ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMBINATION OF OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC COOLING DIMINISH CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST UNDER COLD CORE REGION OF LOW. FARTHER SE...LOW LEVEL ELY AND SLY WINDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH WRN PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE AND LOCALLY MODIFIED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NM. IN COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX S AND SE OF LOW...THIS ALSO WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO ROTATE AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM IS THERMODYNAMIC -- MARGINAL MOISTURE AND LACK OF MORE VIGOROUS HEATING. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 10:56:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 05:56:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509291055.j8TAtvtK023448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291053 SWODY1 SPC AC 291051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE NEL 25 SE BWI 15 W DCA 35 SSW MRB 50 E MGW 25 SSW DUJ 30 NNE BFD 50 WSW ART ...CONT... 55 N BML 20 NW BGR 35 S EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW 3B1 45 NE 3B1 45 SSE HUL ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 35 NNW HDO 30 SE ACT 15 N UOX 65 W LOZ 15 WSW UNI YNG 35 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DUG 40 NE TUS 50 SSW INW 15 SSE PGA U28 55 ESE VEL 45 E CAG 10 E DEN 35 N LHX CAO 15 NE CVS 40 WNW HOB 25 NNE GDP 40 SSE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. THE NARROW LINE OF STORMS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A FOCUSED BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FINE-LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT BINGHAMTON NY CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING WITH 70 KT AT 3 KM AND 50 KT BELOW 1 KM. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F NEAR LONG ISLAND WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT NWD INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN ME...VT...NH...MA AND RI SUGGESTING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT...THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL CREATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL...THE STRONG SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY IF INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY OR MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 16:28:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 11:28:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509291628.j8TGSGGo006285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291623 SWODY1 SPC AC 291622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 20 N JFK 10 SW POU 10 WNW PSF 15 NNE RUT 15 NW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DRT 45 NW SAT 40 NE CLL 25 NW JAN 30 ESE RMG 25 NW GSO 10 NNW DCA 20 WSW ALB 20 N PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 70 WNW SAD 20 NNW INW 15 ESE U17 25 ESE CNY 15 SSE ASE 35 W COS 25 NW PUB 25 SW RTN 50 NW TCC 20 WNW AMA 10 SSE PVW 45 ENE HOB 65 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ECG... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS SHOULD CONTINUE NE ACROSS THE LWR ST LAWRENCE VLY AND DEAMPLIFY LATER TODAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. FARTHER S...FOUR CORNERS UPR LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY E... REACHING N CNTRL/NE NM BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...NEW ENG... NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NEW ENG TODAY...JUST AHEAD OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RECENT LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. HEATING...HOWEVER...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OVER SRN AND ERN PARTS OF NEW ECG THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF UPDRAFT STRENGTH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DYNAMIC. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD /ILLUSTRATED BY 70 KT LLJ AT BTV/ AND PERSISTENCE OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION...POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR/DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ...SRN ROCKIES... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...BUT COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WILL CREATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN AND CNTRL NM SHOW MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. WHILE NOT EXCEPTIONAL...COUPLED WITH 50+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OR MID-EVENING. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 19:50:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 14:50:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509291949.j8TJnUtL005188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291947 SWODY1 SPC AC 291945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW BID 10 SSW PVD 10 W BOS 25 WSW PWM 30 ESE BML 85 WNW CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DRT 10 S SAT 10 WNW HOU 30 NNE MSY 10 W LGC 25 WSW DAN 20 S BWI 20 SSW EWR 15 NE BDR 45 NNE EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE FHU 70 WNW SAD 20 NNW INW 15 ESE U17 25 ESE CNY 15 SSE ASE 35 W COS 25 NW PUB 15 NE RTN 10 SSE CAO 20 WNW AMA 10 SSE PVW 45 ENE HOB 70 SSE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGLY FORCED...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE HAS INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN ME INTO ERN MA/ERN CT AND RI. ABSENCE OF ANY OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HAS LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...DESPITE A SLOW INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /PER REGIONAL VWPS/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN ROCKIES... LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NM COUPLED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS HAVE RESULTED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM SWRN CO INTO W-CNTRL NM...WITHIN REGION OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. GIVEN PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG 45-55 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS /PER ABQ VWP/ ACROSS AREA...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 30 00:52:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 19:52:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509300052.j8U0ploo004889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300049 SWODY1 SPC AC 300047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBB ALM 55 NE SAD GUP 55 WSW MTJ ASE COS PUB TAD 35 NNE CAO EHA 60 SW GAG LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT COT VCT HOU LCH LFT GPT MCN 45 SSW CLT 50 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM PATTERN IS IN TRANSITION TO ZONAL ORIENTATION AS MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIME. FARTHER SW...MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN CUT-OFF AND QUASISTATIONARY ABOUT THE 4-CORNERS REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS...HAS BEGUN TO EJECT EWD BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. CENTER OF THIS CYCLONE SHOULD REACH RATON MESA AREA BY 30/12Z. NERN CONUS SEGMENT OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF FORCED-ASCENT CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO CG LIGHTNING...HAS MOVED E OF DOWNEAST MAINE AND NO LONGER IS A FACTOR IN THIS OUTLOOK. FARTHER SW...FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CAROLINAS/GA...ACCOMPANIED AND PRECEDED BY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS. FRONT IS MOVING OFF LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST AND SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY TONIGHT OVER DEEP S TX...AS WA REGIME COMMENCES FARTHER NW IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...NM... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NM EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SRN PORTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS MOVING INTO SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX. MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND LOW LEVEL SLYS/ELYS COMBINE TO YIELD WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NM PER VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS NEAR SFC HAVE PEAKED AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...A TREND DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND LOCALLY BY EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THEREFORE ANY REMAINING SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. ..EDWARDS.. 09/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 04:23:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 23:23:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509010541.j815fBev018943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010538 SWODY1 SPC AC 010537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 WNW PHX 30 SSE FLG 15 W CEZ 30 ENE EGE 25 S CYS SNY 15 NNE IML 35 E HLC 15 ENE HUT 25 WSW CNU 50 NW SGF 15 ENE SPI 30 NNW IND 45 ESE BMG 25 NW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 60 SSE DRT 50 ESE JCT 20 S TPL 50 W LFK 20 WNW ESF 45 ESE LUL 50 NNW AYS 25 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25 S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BHB 30 NE BGR HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF ABOUT 40N WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REAPPEARS ACROSS THE SRN CONUS ON THURSDAY. IN THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE UPR MS VLY AREA EWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VLY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WI TO WRN NY DURING THE PERIOD. FARTHER WEST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO BC CANADA WILL CAUSE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPR RIDGE WILL MOVE WITHIN A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LWR CO RIVER VLY TO THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES AREA DURING THE DAY. ...UPR RIO GRANDE VLY/NM...W TX AREAS... MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEST SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN NM MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL/WIND. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EAST INTO LWR TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS FROM ERN NM ACROSS PARTS OF W TX. ..CARBIN/BANACOS.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 11:19:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 06:19:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509011237.j81Cb1wB030938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011234 SWODY1 SPC AC 011232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 WNW PHX 30 SSE FLG 15 W CEZ 30 ENE EGE 25 S CYS SNY 10 ENE IML 50 SSW EAR 25 NW FNB 15 SSW STJ 20 NE CNU 50 NW SGF 15 ENE SPI 30 NNW IND 45 ESE BMG 25 NW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 60 SSE DRT 50 ESE JCT 20 S TPL 50 W LFK 20 WNW ESF 45 ESE LUL 50 NNW AYS 25 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25 S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND STALLING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... WITH SURFACE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION...WEAK UPSLOPE ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES TODAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION AS AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH WILL CARRY THREATS OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. AOB 20 KT/ AND LIMIT PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS ALONG NOSE OF MODEST SLY LLJ. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 15:14:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 10:14:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509011631.j81GVfSJ028274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011629 SWODY1 SPC AC 011627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25 S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 65 E BLH 20 NE IGM 55 WNW GCN 30 SSE PGA 25 NNW CEZ 20 W 4FC 25 ESE CYS 10 E BFF 60 W VTN 15 N ANW 20 NW OFK 45 NNE FNB 30 SSW IRK 40 SSE SPI 20 NW IND 50 ESE BMG 40 NNE BWG 20 WSW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DRT 45 E JCT 60 WNW LFK 35 NW ESF 15 S LUL 50 NNW PNS 40 WSW ABY 50 NNW AYS 40 SW CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A QUIET CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE PROFILES IN THE WAKE OF THE KATRINA REMNANTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GULF COAST ALONG AND S OF A WEAK E-W SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS AREA. VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM AZ AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY TO NEB TONIGHT...THOUGH THE THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ...ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON... ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS DEVELOPING...WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED INITIALLY TO ERN NM. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. ...AZ THIS AFTERNOON... 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TUS AND PHOENIX...MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F...REVEAL MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. CENTRAL AND ERN AZ IS WITHIN A LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS. ...N/NW KS INTO NEB TONIGHT... A SERIES OF WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM A LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/WAA NWD FROM WRN KS TO NEB BY TONIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /BASED NEAR 700 MB/ MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM N CENTRAL/NW KS INTO CENTRAL/WRN NEB...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...ERN KS TO CENTRAL MO TODAY... ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO WRN/CENTRAL MO TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM NRN KS...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 18:48:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 13:48:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509012006.j81K6Dh8019178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012003 SWODY1 SPC AC 012002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DRT 45 E JCT 60 WNW LFK 35 NW ESF 15 S LUL 50 NNW PNS 40 WSW ABY 50 NNW AYS 40 SW CHS ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM 55 ENE BLH 20 NE IGM 55 WNW GCN 30 SSE PGA 25 NNW CEZ 20 W 4FC 45 ENE DGW 25 W RAP 50 NW VTN 15 N ANW 20 NW OFK 45 NNE FNB 30 SSW IRK 40 SSE SPI 20 NW IND 50 ESE BMG 40 NNE BWG 20 WSW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25 S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD THRU SOUTHERN OH INTO CENTRAL MO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD THRU NERN ND/NWRN MN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING AND HAVE LEFT A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN KS ALONG THE OK BORDER INTO W CENTRAL KS. WEAK MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE IS MOVING NWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... TRAJECTORIES ARE CARRYING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ENEWD ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE 850 MB BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER NWRN OK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. LATER THIS EVENING...NEW NAM MODEL SHOWS 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE KS HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO ENHANCE MORE ELEVATED-TYPE CONVECTION INTO NWRN AND N CENTRAL KS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SWRN U.S. ACROSS PARTS OF AZ INTO NM... WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN PLATEAU AREAS WHERE THERE IS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURES INDICATING STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9.5C/KM. THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT IN MANY CASES THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE TO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 23:41:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 18:41:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509020059.j820xDkN023938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020057 SWODY1 SPC AC 020055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z 55 SW TUS 45 SE EED 25 NW LAS 45 NE DRA 15 NNW P38 30 ESE U17 15 W ALS 35 N COS 60 WNW CDR 20 WSW RAP 15 NNE VTN 30 N BUB 35 WNW OMA 20 W P35 40 ENE COU 20 S UNO 50 NW FYV 30 S END 15 NW PVW 25 SE ROW 45 SE ELP 30 S LRD 35 WNW NIR 45 W HOU 10 NE GLS 45 S 7R4 40 SSW BVE 75 SSW PFN 45 WSW CTY 15 SSW PIE 15 ESE SRQ 20 E VRB 25 ENE DAB 85 ESE SSI 125 SE CHS 175 SE CRE 35 SW FHU 35 NNW TCS 10 SE RTN 30 NNE EHA 15 NE DDC 35 W P28 30 SW GAG 30 SSW AMA 25 W ROW 45 SE DMN 15 NNW HUT 30 WSW RSL 30 S IML 25 SSE AIA 45 SSW ANW 10 S LNK STJ 10 SSW SZL 30 NNW SGF 20 NNE CNU 15 NNW HUT. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A COUPLE MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE ACCUMULATED A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL TO BEGIN PROPAGATING SEWD INTO ECNTRL NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND MAY FEED THE TSTMS WITH MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...CNTRL PLAINS... RECENT SATL AND RADAR SHOW THAT TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP N OF THE SWRN KS TSTM CLUSTER. THIS TREND OF INCREASING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. FAVORED ZONE FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/N OF H85 FRONT FROM WRN NEB SEWD INTO WRN MO. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST 30-40 KTS OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION AND ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB. ..RACY.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 23:48:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 18:48:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509020106.j82166f1026844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020103 SWODY1 SPC AC 020101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 55 NE BLH 20 NNE EED 20 WNW LAS 50 NE DRA 15 NNW P38 25 W BCE 25 SSE 4BL ALS 30 N COS 60 ENE DGW 25 W RAP 50 NW VTN 35 ESE ANW 20 SSW OFK 45 NE FNB 30 SSW IRK 35 ENE COU 20 S UNO 50 SW JLN 35 S PNC 55 N CDS 35 SE CVS 30 NW CNM 45 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S LRD 30 NW NIR 45 W HOU 15 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10 SE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A COUPLE MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE ACCUMULATED A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL TO BEGIN PROPAGATING SEWD INTO ECNTRL NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND MAY FEED THE TSTMS WITH MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...CNTRL PLAINS... RECENT SATL AND RADAR SHOW THAT TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP N OF THE SWRN KS TSTM CLUSTER. THIS TREND OF INCREASING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. FAVORED ZONE FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/N OF H85 FRONT FROM WRN NEB SEWD INTO WRN MO. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST 30-40 KTS OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION AND ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB. ..RACY.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 04:20:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 23:20:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509020537.j825bclY021626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020535 SWODY1 SPC AC 020533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE P07 40 N ABI 50 N FTW 30 E DAL 40 ESE SHV 30 NE LFT 25 NNW BVE ...CONT... 35 S TLH 20 W VLD 35 NNE AYS 30 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HUL 35 N AUG 25 WNW MWN 15 NE SLK 40 NE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CTB 60 NE MSO 20 SW 3DU 35 WSW BTM 20 NNE 27U 50 NW 27U 55 S S06 25 W S06 35 SW 63S 20 SW 4OM 50 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH 20 SSW SGU 45 SE U24 40 ESE VEL 10 NNW DEN 30 NW AKO 25 S RAP 30 S DIK 45 NW P24 40 NE MOT 20 W STC 25 N MCW 30 ENE P35 20 NE SZL JBR 30 WSW MSL TCL 35 E MEI 25 N JAN 40 WSW GLH 20 ESE MLC 50 WSW TUL 45 ESE P28 50 NNW P28 45 SE DDC 25 ESE GAG 20 WNW CDS 20 NE LBB 15 E CNM 35 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS... AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE-TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW EXPECTED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRI BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS FRI AFTN. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...RISING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE VCNTY BLACK HILLS AND ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH. THUS...HEATING WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED TSTMS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN/EVE FROM WRN/SRN SD SWD INTO WRN NEB. GIVEN A STORM... MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBS. LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBS/CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/SRN SD. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE ERN DAKS AND SWRN MN. THESE TSTMS WILL BE TIED TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG NOSE OF NOCTURNAL SWLY LLJ. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER S...A WEAK COLD FRONT /PSBLY AUGMENTED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY/ WILL BACKDOOR INTO ERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. AN UNSTABLE PLAINS AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE W OF THIS FRONT FRI AFTN. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THIS REGION MAY AID IN A FEW TSTMS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRIMARILY SUPPORT MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL... MAINLY OVER ERN KS/SWRN MO. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 11:21:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 06:21:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509021238.j82CcrGE007293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021236 SWODY1 SPC AC 021235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH 20 SSW SGU 45 SE U24 40 ESE VEL 10 NNW DEN 30 NW AKO 25 S RAP 30 S DIK 45 NW P24 40 NE MOT 20 W STC 25 N MCW 35 SSE OTM 25 SSW JEF 35 W ARG 30 WSW MSL TCL 35 E MEI 25 N JAN 40 WSW GLH 20 ESE MLC 50 WSW TUL 45 ESE P28 50 NNW P28 45 SE DDC 25 ESE GAG 20 WNW CDS 20 NE LBB 15 E CNM 35 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HUL 35 N AUG 25 WNW MWN 15 NE SLK 40 NE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 20 W VLD 35 NNE AYS 30 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE P07 40 N ABI 50 N FTW 30 E DAL 40 ESE SHV 30 NE LFT 25 NNW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CTB 60 NE MSO 20 SW 3DU 35 WSW BTM 20 NNE 27U 25 NNW BKE LWS GEG 45 WNW GEG 20 SW 4OM 50 WNW 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SD/NEB/IA THIS EVENING... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HELP TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO SD/NEB TODAY...WHERE AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SURFACE PARCELS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK FROM EASTERN SD INTO IA. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDES UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...NEB/CO/KS THIS EVENING... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM CO INTO KS. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES ARE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN KS/NEB DURING THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. ..HART/BRIGHT.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 15:17:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 10:17:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509021634.j82GYrNG001450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021632 SWODY1 SPC AC 021630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AQQ 30 NE VLD 30 SSE SAV ...CONT... 50 ESE P07 45 N SJT 10 NNW MWL 35 NNE LFT 30 NNW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH 60 ENE ELY 55 WSW SUN 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 50 NE HVR 20 SSE 3HT 35 SSW COD 20 SE BPI 55 SE RKS 25 WSW CYS 45 NNW BFF 50 NW REJ 15 NE SDY 50 ENE MOT 30 NNE FAR 25 W MSP 35 NNW ALO 35 NNE DSM 10 SSW P35 15 NW VIH 30 S MKL 30 ESE TUP 40 NE JAN 45 SW GLH 25 WNW HOT 15 WNW END 15 ENE GAG 60 S CVS 45 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EPM 15 W AUG 15 ENE MPV 25 WSW MSS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER CENTRAL MT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD ERN MT...WHILE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO NRN NEB LIFTS SLOWLY NWD. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ELEVATED MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ON THE LBF AND RAP SOUNDINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IS LIKELY TO ADVECT NWD FROM KS/NEB INTO PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY AS HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS BAND OF WSWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO NRN IA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THESE WEAK FEATURES MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NERN KS INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP /INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ BUT OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRIMARILY TONIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER CLOUD LAYER SHEAR INDICATES THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL BUT COVERAGE AGAIN APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 18:47:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 13:47:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509022004.j82K4qXQ021760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022002 SWODY1 SPC AC 022000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 25 S SGU 15 N MLF 35 NW PUC 30 N CAG 25 N LAR 45 ENE DGW 15 SE 81V 10 NNE 4BQ 30 ENE MLS 25 ENE GDV 20 SW MOT 25 SW DVL 45 WNW FAR 20 WNW RWF 30 NNW DSM 40 SSE IRK 40 ENE UNO 55 WSW MEM 40 W GLH 35 ESE TXK 20 SE ADM 20 SW FSI 10 SE PVW 25 NW HOB 55 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 NE JCT 45 NE CLL 30 SW POE 10 WSW BTR 20 SSE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EPM 15 NNE AUG 25 W BML 25 NE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 30 NE VLD 30 SSE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CTB 40 WNW LWT 40 SW LVM 15 SE MQM 65 NNW SUN 40 SW S80 35 NW 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SRN ND AND WRN SD. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE...FORMING ALONG AND TO THE NE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING NWWD INTO SERN MT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ESEWD...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CNTRL AND ERN SD TO ERN NEB AND WRN IA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS...ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL US WITH WEST TO NW FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK REGION. A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL KS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS NEWD OF THE MOISTURE AXIS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE STORMS IN SE KS AND WRN MO ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL PLUME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION TONIGHT SUGGEST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 23:46:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 18:46:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509030103.j8313qqQ005525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030101 SWODY1 SPC AC 030100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 10 NE 3B1 70 NNW 3B1 ...CONT... 10 NW PIE 25 NNW DAB ...CONT... 10 WNW DRT 65 W JCT 10 S SJT 35 SSW ABI 30 N BWD 30 SSE SEP 30 SE TPL 40 SSW CLL 55 NNE VCT 15 ESE PSX ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 40 S LAS 50 S ELY 50 NE ELY 10 WSW DPG 30 NE CNY 15 W FCL 40 WNW BFF 45 WSW RAP 50 NNE 4BQ 35 ESE GDV 15 SW P24 40 W DVL 35 ESE DVL 20 ENE FAR 30 ESE STC 25 NNE RST 45 E MCW 35 SSE SPW 35 NE OMA FLV 30 WSW SZL 25 WNW TBN 50 NE UNO POF 35 ENE JBR 20 ESE MEM 35 NNW GLH 35 W HOT 25 ENE MLC 30 N OKC 15 S GAG 60 NE AMA 10 S AMA 50 W LBB 25 ESE ROW 10 SSW ALM 35 SSE DMN ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 20 WSW 3HT 10 NNW IDA 45 W SUN 80 SSE S80 S06 100 N 3TH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DAKOTAS TO SWRN MN... MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KT WAS DIRECTED FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NWD TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT BENEATH BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE LEE-TROUGH OVER ERN MT...ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...TO NWRN IA. WEAK MID/UPR LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PASSING DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED... ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AND PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO A SMALL MCS AND SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. ...NEB PNHDL/NERN CO... A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN NEB PNHDL AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND MAY POSE A LIMITED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..CARBIN.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 04:45:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 23:45:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509030602.j8362ZYJ004049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030600 SWODY1 SPC AC 030558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ATY 50 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 NNW BRD 55 SSW DLH 20 NW EAU 35 NW LSE 20 SSW RST 25 SE FRM 20 N OTG ATY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 10 N SDY 30 NW BNO 35 SE RDM 25 ENE RDM 25 ENE ALW 35 NW S06 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 35 E BLH 30 N EED 45 W SGU 25 WSW U24 25 ENE OGD 45 W RKS 25 ESE RWL 25 NE CYS 40 WNW AKO 25 SSW AKO 25 NE GLD 30 NNW HLC EAR 20 NNW OLU 30 NW SUX 25 WSW FSD 15 WSW MHE 35 ENE PIR 25 ESE BIS 10 SW GFK 10 NW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 25 E JVL 30 SW BRL 40 ENE COU 50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 20 NNW PIE 30 E ORL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS...SRN MN AND WRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES...SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH AND THEN CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SRN MN. ELSEWHERE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED WITHIN WEAK FLOW BENEATH EXTENSIVE AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO TX AND THE OZARKS. ...ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SRN MN... PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR REPEAT SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE MO RIVER VLY NWD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. A WARM FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND ROUGHLY BISECT THE DAKOTAS FROM NW TO SE EARLY IN THE DAY. GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SFC TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY AID IN LOCALLY REINFORCING THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OVERCOME INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY NEAR THE FRONT TO RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED WELL BY THE LATEST GFS...ETA...AND ETAKF GUIDANCE. STRONG TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE NEAR AND ACROSS THE FRONT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER SFC-BASED STORMS CAN TAKE ROOT. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED SFC-BASED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT AND INHIBITION BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE. HOWEVER...FORECAST KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT EVEN AN ISOLATED CELL ANCHORED PREFERENTIALLY ON THE WARM FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO. THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY LATER TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AFTER DARK AND COULD EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS WITH ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF WRN WI OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 11:15:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 06:15:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509031232.j83CWjOf031763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031231 SWODY1 SPC AC 031229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABR 55 SE JMS FAR BRD 55 SSW DLH EAU RST FRM BKX ABR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 35 E BLH 30 N EED 45 W SGU 25 WSW U24 30 NE OGD 35 SE IDA 35 ENE WEY 30 NNW COD 35 ENE RWL 25 NE CYS 40 WNW AKO 25 SSW AKO 25 NE GLD 30 NNW HLC EAR 20 NNW OLU 30 NW SUX 25 WSW FSD 15 WSW MHE 35 ENE PIR 20 ENE BIS 10 SW GFK 10 NW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 25 E JVL 30 SW BRL 40 ENE COU 50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 10 N SDY 60 SSE RDM 30 SSW RDM 25 NE RDM 25 ENE ALW 35 NW S06 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PIE 30 E ORL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER MIDWEST... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG...ABOVE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ROTATION...PROMOTING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS. FORECAST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS RISK SEEMS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..HART/JEWELL.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 15:26:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 10:26:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509031644.j83GiAmr003918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031642 SWODY1 SPC AC 031640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAU 20 ESE LSE 35 WNW DBQ 20 SSW ALO 15 WNW OTG BKX 20 N ATY 55 S FAR 25 ESE FAR BRD 55 SSW DLH EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 45 SE EED 25 NE LAS 45 NNE P38 35 N DPG 40 W IDA 35 N SUN 55 NNE BOI 15 WNW BNO 55 SSE RDM 20 W RDM 35 WNW PDT 10 NW GEG 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 55 N ISN 20 WSW ISN 65 E LWT 35 SW BIL 30 ENE WRL 40 S DGW 20 ESE AKO 40 S DHT 45 WNW CDS 35 SE FSI 30 S ICT 20 S EAR 35 WSW YKN HON 55 NE MBG JMS 30 SSW TVF 10 WNW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 15 SE MKE 35 SE BRL 40 ENE COU 50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 50 N PIE 15 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM MCS MOVING OVER MN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TURN SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT ADVANCES BEYOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO REGION OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SD INTO IA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD ALTHOUGH MOVEMENT MAY BE INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF MN. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... CURRENT MCS IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. ANIMATED RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE ROTATION WITHIN NRN PORTION OF MCS...WITH QUASI-LINEAR LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT IS EXHIBITING WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN UPDRAFT INTENSITY OF SYSTEM. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 700 MB BASED ON 12Z ABR SOUNDING AND CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR HAIL. STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS CLOUD SHIELD...AND ALTHOUGH PRIMARY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD INCREASE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD THE ZONE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN AND NWRN IA. ATTENDANT CAP OVER THE DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...WE WILL MONITOR THE REGION OF NERN SD..SERN ND INTO MN IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT MCS FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..WEISS/TAYLOR.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 18:34:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 13:34:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509031952.j83JqBIr018949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031949 SWODY1 SPC AC 031948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DSM 45 S SPW 25 NNW FSD 20 SW ATY 65 N ATY 50 ESE FAR 10 ENE BRD EAU 40 WNW LNR 15 W DBQ 30 WSW CID 20 NNE DSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 40 SSW SGU 20 E ENV 45 NNW SUN 45 WSW S80 15 NNW PUW 50 NW S06 85 NE 3TH 45 N GTF SHR 30 SE CYS 15 NE TCC 25 W HOB 30 SSE INK 65 NE P07 30 S SJT 25 ESE BWD 10 E MWL 30 NE FSI 30 SSE RSL 40 NE BUB 20 E 9V9 50 WNW ABR 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 65 ENE ELO 35 NNE RHI 15 WSW OSH JVL 25 SW STL 25 WNW LIT 40 ESE SHV 40 NW LFT 15 SSW BTR 50 NW GPT 15 ESE SEM 20 S AUO ABY 25 S VLD 10 NW GNV 15 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST AND NRN PLAINS... ...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN MN. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUSTAINING THE CURRENT STORM ACTIVITY AND SUPPORTING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WNW TO ESE FROM NRN SD INTO SW MN AND NRN IA. A CAPPED AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...THE INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED AND THE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SRN MN ARE LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE 850 MB. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN SCNTRL MN. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE IN NRN IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING HOURS. PROFILERS IN SW MN CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KT. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY A BIT LESS DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. STILL...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE LINEAR ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FROM MULTICELLS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE. AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE...MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE LESS DUE TO THE COOLER SFC AIR NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 23:51:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 18:51:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509040108.j8418tx9031144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040106 SWODY1 SPC AC 040105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ALO 15 NNW SPW 25 SW BKX 40 SE MBG 35 NE MBG 15 SSW JMS 15 ENE BRD 15 NW EAU 15 NNW VOK 10 ESE DBQ 10 NNE CID 40 SW ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CZZ 50 WNW EED 60 E LAS 35 WNW CDC 20 E ENV 45 NNW SUN 40 WSW S80 10 NNW PUW 45 NW S06 85 NE 3TH 40 SSW HVR 75 SSW GGW 50 N DGW 35 WNW BFF 30 N AKO 20 NNE IML 35 NNW GRI 50 NE BUB 25 E 9V9 25 NE PHP 60 N PHP 40 W BIS 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 65 ENE ELO 35 NNE RHI 15 WSW OSH JVL 25 SW STL 25 WNW LIT 25 ENE SHV 40 SE CLL 15 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BML 10 NNW LEB 20 W GFL 25 SSW ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE RSL 25 WNW OKC 15 SE MWL 25 ESE BWD 30 S SJT 35 SSW MAF 20 SE HOB 30 ENE CVS 45 ESE TAD 25 SSW LIC 30 NNW GCK 25 SSE RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIE 20 SSE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...1) ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER ERN MN/WRN WI ATTM...AND 2) TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA/DAKOTAS...PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY ZONE OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/N OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER SEWD ACROSS SWRN MN TO NRN AND ERN IA. STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSING INTO ERN SD/WRN MN THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE INFLOW OF AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO SERN/CENTRAL MN AND WNWWD TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WHERE PARCELS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LFC. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF DAKOTAS MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF SD/SRN ND INTO MN/WRN WI...AND NERN IA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG...MAINLY ELEVATED...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH ANOTHER MCS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS MN. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 04:57:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 23:57:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509040615.j846F2aa030877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040610 SWODY1 SPC AC 040609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25 N BJI 40 WSW FAR 35 SSW JMS 25 SE BIS 20 NNW BIS 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB 15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DAB 15 E VLD 45 NW AYS 55 WNW SAV 20 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 50 NW TUS 30 ESE PRC 35 W GUP 55 S 4BL 35 E DPG 10 SSE MLD 35 NNW PIH 45 N SUN 45 WNW BOI 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 45 SSW S06 105 NNE 3TH ...CONT... 30 ENE ELO 10 NW HIB 20 ENE BRD 60 NE MSP 20 SE RHI 40 NNE MKE 25 SW CGX 30 SW UIN JLN 15 SSW TUL 45 SSE SPS 10 S TPL 25 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PIR 30 SW VTN 55 ENE SNY 30 ENE IML 20 ENE LBF 55 E ANW 15 ESE MHE 20 ENE HON 40 ENE PIR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN ND INTO NWRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BC SATURDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TOWARD AB AND THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE EWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE NRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH TRACKING NEWD OVER ID TO MT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MANITOBA AND ALSO INTO CENTRAL ND. AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE IN ND. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER ERN MT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST. ...NRN PLAINS... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MN INTO SWRN WI AND NERN IA/NWRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS. A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO ATOP SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM ND INTO WRN WI..BUT MUCH OF THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EML. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THIS REGION SHOULD AID IN WEAKENING THE CAP OVER ND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM MB SWWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL ND BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NERN ND. FURTHER S ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO WRN SD TO NERN CO...STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED DUE TO A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL WINDS. ...MT/WY TO WRN ND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/NWRN WY THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. THUS...HAVE FORECAST LOW SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO ERN MT/WRN ND TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS NEWD. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 11:09:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 06:09:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509041226.j84CQbNg006564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041224 SWODY1 SPC AC 041223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25 N BJI 60 WSW ABR 35 WNW PIR 30 WSW MBG 15 N BIS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB 15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DAB 15 E VLD 45 NW AYS 55 WNW SAV 20 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 50 NW TUS PRC 10 NNE GCN 30 N BCE 35 E U24 35 N OGD 45 ESE SUN 25 NW SUN 45 WNW BOI 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 45 SSW S06 95 NNE 3TH ...CONT... 50 ENE ELO 15 N HIB 35 WSW DLH 65 NNW EAU 20 SE RHI 40 NNE MKE 25 SW CGX 40 SE UIN JLN 20 SW MKO 40 ESE OKC 35 SSE SPS 25 NE BWD 45 NW AUS 45 ESE AUS 25 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...AND WESTERN MN... ...ND/MN/SD... UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN WY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST ND TO NEAR RAP. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH MUCH OF DAY...LIKELY SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING ACROSS SD AND UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD AID THREAT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FROM EASTERN ND INTO CENTRAL SD...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MN DURING EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...MN/WI THIS MORNING... CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED NEAR MSP MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST IA TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ...CO/NEB... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/CO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION. ...MT... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MT...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/JEWELL.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 15:27:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 10:27:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509041645.j84Gj3ws027870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041642 SWODY1 SPC AC 041640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ELO 20 ENE BJI 60 WSW ABR 35 WNW PIR 35 ESE Y22 35 NW BIS 60 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB 15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 55 NNW IWD 40 WNW IWD 40 W RHI 25 ESE RHI 40 NNE MKE 45 SSE CGX 25 SSE SPI 20 W VIH 20 NW FYV 25 WSW PGO 35 NNW DAL 50 SW CLL 25 NE GLS ...CONT... 10 NNW SAN 35 NNW TRM 10 WNW IGM 25 WSW U24 30 SSW MLD 20 ENE BYI 35 NNW OWY 70 SE BNO 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 35 WSW S06 90 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 25 SSE GNV 25 NE VLD 45 NW AYS 45 SSE AGS 15 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 15 SSW HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PART OF TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. WLY/SWLY FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SHIFTING EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREA NEWD INTO WY THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO EXTREME N CENTRAL MN... CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW OVER W CENTRAL ND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN SD INTO SWRN IA. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS WSWWD THRU S CENTRAL MT THEN CONTINUES NWWD THRU THE NRN ID PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ON NOSE OF 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION ZONE. THIS WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY EVIDENT BY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NRN MN AT THIS TIME MOVING EWD TOWARD NWRN WI/WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NEWD TODAY INTO NERN ND BY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DRAGS SEWD EXTENDING INTO N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL SD. LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON GOING INTO THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AREA UNDERNEATH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ENHANCE UVVS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8.0-8.5 C/KM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ELEVATED. BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT... SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER LATER TODAY UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF 50-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT WITH 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 350 M2/S2. PROFILES ARE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 18:43:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 13:43:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509042000.j84K0Ixa010112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041958 SWODY1 SPC AC 041956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 SSW BJI 25 NNW HON PIR 35 WNW PIR 40 W MBG 45 SE MOT 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 10 SSE BTR 20 NNW MCB 30 NE JAN 15 SSW CBM 20 NE TCL 35 E 0A8 30 SW DHN 30 N AQQ 30 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SAN 45 N TRM 50 NNW IGM 25 NNE MLF 35 W SLC 40 SE BYI 10 NE TWF 45 NNW OWY 70 SE BNO 30 NE BNO 40 ESE PDT 35 NNW 3TH 105 WNW CTB ...CONT... 50 N CMX 40 E IWD 15 SE RHI 35 S OSH 20 NE MMO 25 NW DEC 15 ENE VIH 25 WNW FSM 35 SW DUA 20 N ACT 30 S TPL 50 SE AUS 50 N PSX 10 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON 15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY GNV 35 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NCNTRL US WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN MT AND ERN WY DRIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS CAPPED...INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EARLY EVENING ACROSS ECNTRL ND AND CNTRL SD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO NE SD. SFC DEWPOINTS NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 60S F AND ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL ND WHICH APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD FROM WRN SD INTO ERN ND SHOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL FORMATION. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORM SEGMENTS. STORM INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. ...HIGH PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL AID THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN MT...ERN WY AND ERN CO. AS THE STORMS MOVE ENEWD INTO THE PLAINS...HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY TO THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INTENSIFICATION. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREADING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 23:44:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 18:44:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509050101.j8511k1F025216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050059 SWODY1 SPC AC 050058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 SSW BJI 25 NNW HON PIR 35 WNW PIR 45 WNW MBG 50 SE MOT 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 10 SSE BTR 20 NNW MCB 30 NE JAN 10 NW CBM 15 NNW BHM 40 E 0A8 30 SW DHN 30 N AQQ 30 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SAN 45 N TRM 50 NNW IGM 25 NNE MLF 35 W SLC 40 SE BYI 10 NE TWF 45 NNW OWY 70 SE BNO 30 NE BNO 40 ESE PDT 35 NNW 3TH 105 WNW CTB ...CONT... 50 N CMX 40 E IWD 15 SE RHI 35 S OSH 20 NE MMO 25 NW DEC 15 ENE VIH 25 WNW FSM 35 SW DUA 20 N ACT 30 S TPL 50 SE AUS 50 N PSX 10 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY 40 W JAX 15 NE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS TO NRN MN... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MB SWWD INTO CENTRAL ND TO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND THEN WWD INTO WY. A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SWWD INTO FAR ERN CO. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THE TROUGHS IN THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE...BUT REMAINS CAPPED. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE SPREAD ENEWD WEAKENING THIS CAP. AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND/OR LLJ STRENGTHENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD INTO NWRN MN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS /MT TO WRN ND/... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER ID...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTENING ATOP A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEED 40F. THUS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM CENTRAL INTO ERN MT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...WRN KS/PARTS OF WRN NEB... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN KS ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LEE TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ IS RESULTING IN 25-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... DESPITE MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /10-15 KT AT 500 MB/. A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30 DEGREES WILL TEND TO FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO MID EVENING. ..PETERS.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 04:38:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 23:38:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509050556.j855uADc009904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050554 SWODY1 SPC AC 050552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 NNW EAU 55 ESE SUX 50 NE HLC 40 W HLC 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40 WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 35 S PHX 35 S PRC 40 N PRC 60 SE PGA 30 SSW 4BL 10 NNW CNY 45 SSE RKS 15 N RWL 20 WNW CPR 30 SSE WRL 55 SSW COD 10 SSW JAC 15 NNW IDA 30 W MQM 20 SSE HLN 40 ESE LWT 30 SW MLS 35 SE MLS 20 S GDV 30 SSE OLF 20 WSW GGW 65 NNW GGW ...CONT... 30 N ANJ 25 W OSH 25 WSW ALO 20 NE P28 15 WNW GAG 30 NW CDS 45 WNW ABI 10 NE JCT 25 NE SAT 35 NE CLL 20 NNW SHV 25 SW HOT 45 SW JBR 25 N MKL 35 SE BWG 40 NNW TYS 25 SSW TYS 15 SE CHA 15 SSE BHM 30 WNW SEM 60 SW SEM 25 S CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 20 SSW AYS 15 NNE SAV 20 NNW CHS 15 NNE CRE 45 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MT/ND/NRN MN AND ADJACENT REGIONS OF SRN CANADA AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CANADA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WRN ND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. BY 00Z...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN MB SWWD TO FAR ERN ND...AND THEN WSWWD INTO WY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS TO SERN CO. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...STRONGEST FORCING FOR LIFT AND ATTENDANT THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN INTO SERN MB/NWRN ONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD INTO NWRN ONT THIS MORNING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NRN MN...AS THIS LEAD TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED EAST OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN/NRN MN. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGER TROUGH OVER CANADA...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM ERN ND/NERN SD INTO WRN/NRN MN. MODELS SUGGEST STORM MODE MAY BECOME LINEAR AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING. INSTABILITY FARTHER S ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO NEB AND WRN KS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...BUT SHOULD BE MODERATE RANGING FROM 1000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEB INTO NWRN KS. LARGE HAIL /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS /SERN MT INTO NRN AND ERN WY/... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN/ERN WY AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN THIS REGION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 11:28:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 06:28:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509051246.j85Ck3dH009070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051243 SWODY1 SPC AC 051241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 W IWD 25 SE MKT 25 SW OLU 40 SSW MCK 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40 WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 NE CMX 20 SSW GRB 25 ESE RFD BMI SPI 35 SE BRL 20 W MLI 40 ENE ALO 30 WSW ICT 10 SW GAG 35 N CDS 70 ESE LBB 25 NW SJT 10 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 20 SSW AYS 15 NNE SAV 20 NNW CHS 15 NNE CRE 45 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LRD 25 SSW CLL 20 ENE LFK 15 NE SHV LIT 45 SW JBR 10 N MKL 30 SSE CKV 30 E BNA 35 NNW CHA 30 NNE GAD 15 SSE BHM 30 WNW SEM 60 SW SEM 25 S CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 35 S PHX 35 S PRC 40 N PRC 60 SE PGA 30 SSW 4BL 10 NNW CNY 45 SSE RKS 15 N RWL 45 W CPR IDA 30 W MQM 20 SSE HLN 40 ESE LWT 30 SW MLS 25 NE MLS 35 S OLF GGW 60 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS... MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MT/WY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...LIKELY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. A WEAKENING CAP...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT...WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS OVER EASTERN ND/SD. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. ...NEBRASKA... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NEB INTO EASTERN CO. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID INITIATION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION /MULTICELL OR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ..HART/JEWELL.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 15:04:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 10:04:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509051622.j85GMBAl028302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051619 SWODY1 SPC AC 051618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 W IWD 25 SE MKT 25 SW OLU 40 SSW MCK 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40 WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN PRC PGA 35 W PUC 10 WSW EVW PIH 30 W MQM HLN LWT MLS 10 SSE OLF 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 130 ENE CMX OSH DBQ LWD ICT 40 ESE GAG CDS 70 ESE LBB SJT 10 SSW DRT ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 10 NE CLL GGG TXK HOT JBR DYR BNA 35 NNW CHA GAD SEM 25 SE CEW ...CONT... CTY AYS 40 NW SAV 45 SE CAE FLO 45 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN RED RIVER VALLEY WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE MOIST CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NNWWD ALONG LEE TROUGH TO A LOW CENTER OVER SERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD WEAKEN CAP INTO ND AND CENTRAL/NERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN FIRST JUST BEHIND H85-H7 COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ND AROUND 20-21Z. MORNING MODELS EXPAND MOIST CONVECTION EWD AND SWD OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE MID EVENING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF SD/ND AND WRN MN WHERE LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE/ WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW ECHO FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING INTO SERN ND/NERN SD/W-CENTRAL MN WITH ATTENDANT INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER DARK...ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG NOSE OF 50+ SWLY LLJ AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HOW FAR SOUTH INTO WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR REMAINS MORE QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEEP MIXING AS AFTERNOON HIGHS EXCEED THE LOWER 90SF SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. PREDOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WITH A MIX OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL...WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 18:42:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 13:42:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509051959.j85JxmDD029545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051957 SWODY1 SPC AC 051955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 60 SE DLH 15 S MKT 25 SW OLU 45 ENE GLD 20 NNW GLD 45 W IML 30 WNW VTN 10 ESE MBG 10 NE BIS 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CTY AYS 40 NW SAV 45 SE CAE FLO 45 WSW HSE ...CONT... 100 NNW ANJ 40 S IMT 15 N DBQ 35 NE P35 20 WNW EMP 40 E GAG 35 NNE CDS 65 NNW ABI SJT 10 SSW DRT ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 10 NE CLL GGG TXK HOT JBR DYR BNA 35 NNW CHA GAD SEM 25 SE CEW ...CONT... 75 S GBN GBN PRC PGA 35 W PUC 10 WSW EVW PIH 30 W MQM 35 ESE HLN 35 ESE LWT MLS 10 SSE OLF 60 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...ERN DAKOTAS...NEB THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO SERN MT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO NERN CO. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN AND SWWD INTO NEB. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. HEATING IS BEING TEMPERED SOMEWHAT OVER ND INTO MN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS WIDESPREAD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST FROM ERN SD INTO MN DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THIS REGION AS THE CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR CURRENTLY REMAINS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS MN...SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...A BELT OF STRONGER (30-40 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE CAP WEAKENING FARTHER SW INTO NEB. MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 23:46:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 18:46:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509060103.j8613YkI010519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060101 SWODY1 SPC AC 060059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ELO 60 ESE BRD 35 SSE FSD 25 E HSI 30 ENE HLC 40 SE GLD 30 SSW GLD 10 SW GLD 25 NNE MCK 25 ENE LBF 40 NW BBW 25 WSW ANW 30 NW 9V9 40 NNE FAR 50 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNW ANJ 40 S IMT 30 NNW DBQ 35 NE LWD 20 WNW EMP 50 ENE GAG 35 NNE CDS 65 ESE LBB 50 W SJT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW TUS 35 WNW SAD 60 NNE INW 60 SSW 4BL 30 E GJT 55 NE CAG 15 N CPR 15 NW COD 45 E LVM 35 NNE BIL 15 N Y22 35 NNE BIS 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 40 SE VLD 35 NNW SSI CHS 15 NE CRE 30 SE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GLS 30 SSE LFK 15 E GGG TXK HOT 15 ENE PBF 40 NE MLU 35 SSE HEZ 25 NNE MSY 35 SSW MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT FROM NW KS/CENTRAL NEB TO MN.... ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AREA TONIGHT... A BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NW MN/SE ND/ERN SD. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE AND ENCOUNTER A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG/ FROM ERN SD INTO NW MN. ADDITIONALLY...THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO NW MN...AND AS SSWLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40-50 KT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS. FARTHER SW...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NW KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB. THIS CONVECTION FORMED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WERE MAXIMIZED...AND WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAD SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED THE CAP. DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AFTER SUNSET...THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING SLY LLJ. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL ROUGHLY 04-06Z...AFTER WHICH TIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE. ..THOMPSON.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 04:34:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 23:34:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509060551.j865pt9o002364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060549 SWODY1 SPC AC 060548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 WNW DSM 40 NE HLC 15 WSW GCK 20 S LAA 35 ESE COS 30 SE DEN 25 WNW FCL 50 SSW DGW 40 NE DGW 30 NNW CDR 45 W VTN 40 NE ANW 20 ENE FSD 30 NNE MSP 45 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OSC 35 S MKE 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 10 ESE ICT 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 20 ESE INW 65 NW GUP 25 SW 4BL 15 SW CNY 35 SW VEL 35 SSE RKS 20 E BIL 30 NW MLS 25 ESE GDV 50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM UPPER MI AND WI SWWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN/CENTRAL MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS MN/WI/UPPER MI. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. ...MN/NRN IA/WI/UPPER MI THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SURGED SEWD INTO SRN/ERN MN AND SERN SD...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BEING FED FROM THE SW BY A NARROW INSTABILITY CORRIDOR THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH A 50 KT LLJ FROM NEB INTO SW MN. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...THOUGH THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT...SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN IA/SRN MN/WI. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MID-UPPER WESTERLIES NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOWS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F /BENEATH A PLUME OF 8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NW KS/NE CO/WRN NEB AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS. GRADUAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEB/NW KS...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NE CO/WRN NEB...WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH WLY MID-UPPER FLOW EXCEEDING 50 KT NEAR 300 MB. THUS...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. NWD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN...WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 11:39:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 06:39:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509061256.j86CuLAj018128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061253 SWODY1 SPC AC 061252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 E SUX 40 NE HLC 15 WSW GCK 20 S LAA 35 ESE COS 30 SE DEN 25 WNW FCL 50 SSW DGW 40 NE DGW 30 NNW CDR 45 W VTN 40 NE ANW 20 SE BKX 30 NNE MSP 45 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 20 ESE INW 65 NW GUP 25 WSW 4BL 15 SSW U28 30 WSW VEL 10 ENE RKS 25 N RIW 50 WNW COD 35 SW BZN 30 S HLN 35 ENE HLN 45 NW MLS 25 SE GDV 50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 S OSC 35 S MKE 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SD/MN/WI... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH BAND OF WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST SD. DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. LACK OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NEB/KS/CO/WY... WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. AIR MASS IS ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST KS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE THETA-E AXIS FROM NORTHEAST NM...ACROSS WESTERN KS...INTO SOUTHERN NEB. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-SEVERE. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY OUTLOOKED LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA. ..HART/GUYER.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 15:12:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 10:12:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509061629.j86GTET4012063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061625 SWODY1 SPC AC 061624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE AIA 15 NNE IML 35 ENE GLD 50 S GLD 40 SSE LIC 30 N COS 25 W FCL 25 S LAR 25 NE LAR 25 NW BFF 30 SE AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 30 SSE IMT 30 NNE VOK 20 S EAU 65 NW EAU 60 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 40 S INW 65 SSE PGA 30 NW PGA 35 SSE U24 15 WNW SLC 35 WNW RKS 35 NNW LND 50 ESE WEY 35 SW 27U 40 ESE S80 45 WSW MSO 45 SW HVR 35 WSW GGW 50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL ...CONT... 70 NNE MTC 40 WNW BEH 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SWD OVER MUCH OF ERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH PRESSURE RISES AND COOL/DRY AIR NOW IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE ESELY SURFACE WINDS COMMENCE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER FAR ERN CO/SWRN NEB WILL ADVECT WWD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEW POINTS LIKELY RECOVERING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER FAR SERN WY/NERN CO. THUS...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER 21Z ACROSS THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL SHIFT EWD OVER INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DESPITE WEAK WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER CELLS MAY SUSTAIN ROTATION AND INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG LEE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT FOR AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM INTENSITIES/ ORGANIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI AND NRN WI. HERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER UNDER MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD SUPPORT FEW ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MORE LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 18:38:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 13:38:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509061955.j86JtnOa002335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061952 SWODY1 SPC AC 061951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MTC 40 WNW BEH 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 40 S INW 65 SSE PGA 30 NW PGA 35 SSE U24 15 WNW SLC 35 WNW RKS 35 NNW LND 50 ESE WEY 35 SW 27U 40 ESE S80 45 WSW MSO 45 SW HVR 75 WSW GGW 45 NNE RAP 20 SW PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NWRN WI SWWD THROUGH SRN MN...NRN NEB INTO NE CO WHERE IT INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH ERN CO. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN SHIFTED S OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM. FARTHER W OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE CO... DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOIST ELY UPSLOPE REGIME HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND SERN WY...AND FARTHER NE ALONG THE FRONT. MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AWAY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 23:37:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 18:37:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509070054.j870sKMD016856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070052 SWODY1 SPC AC 070050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 40 S INW 65 SSE PGA 30 NW PGA 35 SSE U24 15 WNW SLC 35 WNW RKS 35 NNW LND 50 ESE WEY 40 W MQM 50 NNW 27U 15 SSE MSO 45 ENE GTF 75 WSW GGW 45 NNE RAP 20 SW PIR 40 NW RWF 15 ENE MSP 20 WSW RHI 50 E MQT ...CONT... 70 NNE MTC 20 NE MKG 15 WSW MLI 20 S P35 15 SSE MHK 30 WSW END 25 SSW CDS 20 ENE INK 85 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LRD 10 NNE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 25 SSW BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SWWD TO NERN NM/NRN TX PANHANDLE... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE U.P. OF MI SWWD ACROSS SERN MN/NRN IA TO NRN NEB...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM SWRN NEB TO FAR WRN KS AND ERN NM. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS NEB OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS WRN AND NRN NEB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER/SEVERE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...UNTIL AROUND 03Z...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB...GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FURTHER S...A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN NM INTO SWRN KS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ..PETERS.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 04:37:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 23:37:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509070555.j875t6Pm024976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070552 SWODY1 SPC AC 070551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N SDY 35 E ISN 15 WSW MOT 40 NE BIS 20 NNE HON 15 ESE YKN OLU 10 E HSI 45 NNE HLC 50 WSW HLC 50 WNW GCK 10 NW LAA 40 S LIC 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 30 SSE MLS 10 N SDY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 WNW PHX 10 SSW FLG 60 NNW INW 55 ESE PGA 15 E PUC 25 S RKS 30 NNE RWL 35 SW SHR 35 ESE 3HT 75 NE LWT 45 N GGW ...CONT... 65 N GFK AXN 35 NNW MKT 30 SW EAU 30 SE CWA 35 NNW TVC 70 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 15 E EFK 10 SSW CAK 25 SSE SPI 20 ENE MKC 35 S DDC 10 ESE CVS 45 WNW CNM 25 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTY 20 NW SAV 35 NNE CRE 25 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE DRT 45 WNW HDO 25 N SAT 25 ESE AUS 35 WNW HOU 15 WSW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AS MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHS REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WITH ONE TRACKING EWD TOWARD QUE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z THURSDAY. A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN CA PER WV IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD ONT/QUE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SSEWD TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND MID MS VALLEY. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COLD FRONT...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER NRN/WRN NEB...WILL RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM ERN MT/WY AND EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB/DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WRN CANADA MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL/WRN SD. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ID TROUGH AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS...UPSLOPE FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN SD INTO ERN WY/SERN MT. A 25-30 KT SELY LLJ LOCATED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS AND BENEATH 35-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THIS STORM MODE...A COMBINATION OF SEVERE THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO. A STRENGTHENING/ VEERING LLJ NOSING INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT SUGGESTS AN UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS/S. ...IA TO SWRN GREAT LAKES REGION... DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-6.5 C/KM/ WILL LIMIT SBCAPE WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS IA TOWARD THE SWRN GREAT LAKES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE. ..PETERS/CARBIN.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 11:35:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 06:35:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509071252.j87CqANC028942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071250 SWODY1 SPC AC 071248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW REJ 35 S DIK 15 SSW BIS 20 NNE HON 15 ESE YKN OLU 10 E HSI 45 NNE HLC 15 WNW GLD 15 W AKO 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 15 WSW 81V 30 NW REJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 30 NE AXN 15 SSE STC 20 ESE EAU 25 ESE CWA 40 E ESC 15 S ANJ ...CONT... 15 E EFK 10 SSW CAK 25 SSE SPI 25 ESE MKC 40 WNW END 15 NE CDS 35 E LBB 50 NE HOB 25 ENE CNM 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 WNW PHX 10 SSW FLG 60 NNW INW 55 ESE PGA 15 E PUC 25 S RKS 30 NNE RWL 35 SW SHR 30 SE 3HT 75 WSW GGW 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTY 20 NW SAV 35 NNE CRE 25 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE DRT 45 WNW HDO 25 N SAT 25 ESE AUS 35 WNW HOU 15 WSW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NORTHERN PLAINS... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN MT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD/NEB THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CAP TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN SD. THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOWS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING THE EVENING MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR SOME THREAT OF TORNADOES AS WELL. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AFTER DARK...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...IA/IL/WI... WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SUPPORTING MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...FL/SC... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY OFF THE FL COAST. JAX/CHS VAD PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MARGINAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF TORNADOES OR GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HART/GUYER.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 14:56:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 09:56:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509071613.j87GDHj8007069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071607 SWODY1 SPC AC 071605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MLS 65 SE GDV 20 N MBG 40 SW ABR 30 WSW MHE 20 SSW ANW 15 SSW LBF 35 NNW GLD 15 W AKO 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 25 SSW 4BQ 35 SE MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 20 E PRC 35 ENE GCN 30 WNW 4HV 50 NE U24 25 E OGD 45 ESE BPI 25 SSE CPR 50 NNE CPR 20 WNW SHR 15 NW BIL 35 SSW GGW 65 NNE OLF ...CONT... 65 N GFK 35 SSE BJI 40 E STC CWA 30 SSE ESC 15 S ANJ ...CONT... 35 NW BML 10 SSW CAK 20 ENE HUF 25 ESE MKC 30 NNW PNC 15 ENE LBB 30 S ROW 30 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15 NW ILM 20 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 45 NW NIR 40 NE VCT 10 W GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS NEAR FAR SERN MT/NERN WY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW WORKING ITS WAY EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF LEE TROUGH...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON RAP/S 12Z SOUNDING. THIS WILL HINDER HEATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WRN NEB AND CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER JUST WEST OF THESE CLOUDS...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON OR NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. BROAD AREA OF 25-35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOW ECHOES. EWD EXTENT OF ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL BE MODULATED BY HOW MUCH MIXING/DISSIPATION CAN OCCUR WITHIN CURRENT AREA OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. AFTER DARK...SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEB AND MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING STORMS...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO AND EAST OF MID MO RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN LOWER MI... SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED EWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... AND INTO NRN LOWER MI...THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT ORGANIZATION ALONG PERSISTENT STORM-OUTFLOW. LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE PRECEEDING THESE STORMS THIS MORNING ALSO SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE WITH INFLUX OF AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...AREA VWP/S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE WEAKLY ORGANIZED. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SRN WI/NRN IA INTO NRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS STRONGER CELLS WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED WITH ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ...NERN FL/COASTAL GA... WITH TS OPHELIA REMAINING JUST OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD /REFERENCE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM NHC/...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING/ROTATING WSWWD OVER THIS REGION. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK GIVEN NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL NELY WIND PROFILES. HOWEVER...BRIEF LOW LEVEL ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER CELLS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...SUGGESTING TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 18:19:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 13:19:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509071936.j87JatTX030782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071934 SWODY1 SPC AC 071932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE 81V REJ 50 SW MBG 50 ENE PIR 40 SE 9V9 50 WNW LBF 30 NNW GLD 25 ENE LIC 25 ESE DEN 10 ENE FCL 50 SE DGW 65 WSW RAP 45 NNE 81V. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CWA 25 WNW MBL 10 SW HTL 35 S HTL 20 N GRR 40 E MKE 15 ESE LNR 20 NNW LNR 35 S CWA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 30 SW CAK 25 ESE MTO MKC 20 SW PNC TCC 35 WSW ROW 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 35 ESE PRC 40 ENE INW 35 SE U17 30 WSW 4HV 35 S EVW 30 WNW RKS 50 NNW LAR 40 NNW DGW 25 ENE SHR 20 WSW MLS 25 WSW GDV 45 WSW P24 45 NE JMS 50 NNW AXN 40 E STC 25 NNW AUW 35 N TVC 40 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LRD 10 W ALI 20 ESE VCT 20 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15 NW ILM 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION... LOW-LEVEL SSELY FLOW IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED/...ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ACROSS PARTS OF SERN WY/ERN CO...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW INDICATED JUST E OF CYS. THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 700 MB SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP HOWEVER...MODEST /20 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER A BROADER PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP N OF SURFACE FRONT -- AND THUS REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. THOUGH A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS...LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ...MID MO VALLEY EWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND EWD INTO NRN LOWER MI...INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A ZONE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF VORT MAX ALOFT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION -- AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH WEAK/SMALL-SCALE BOW OVER CENTRAL WI ATTM. THESE AREAS OF GREATER CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SUGGEST A LOCALLY-ENHANCED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL/WIND...AND THUS WILL ADD A SMALL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SLOW DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/CONVECTION WEAKENS. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 23:44:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 18:44:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509080101.j8811lWn030069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080059 SWODY1 SPC AC 080058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CDR 30 ENE RAP 20 SSE MBG 50 SW ABR 9V9 50 ENE CDR 40 W IML 30 ENE LAA 15 NNW LHX 20 NNW BFF 50 NW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 ESE PRC 40 ENE INW 35 SE U17 30 WSW 4HV 35 S EVW 30 WNW RKS 50 NNW LAR 25 NNE DGW 10 ENE 81V 55 SSE GDV 35 E SDY 15 ESE MOT 10 W DVL 40 NNE FAR 30 E AXN 20 NNE MKT 25 WSW ALO 10 SSE DSM 15 SE OMA 40 NW OFK 40 E ANW 20 SE MHN MCK 25 WSW RSL 45 SE DDC TCC 35 WSW ROW 10 WNW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PBG 35 W SYR 10 SSW CAK 10 NE DNV 30 SW MMO 15 W MKE 50 NW MBL 40 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15 NW ILM 20 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LRD 10 W ALI 20 ESE VCT 20 SW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SRN BLACK HILLS OF SD...INTO SERN CO. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE PROPAGATING SHARPLY SWD ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...SLY INFLOW MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFT EFFICIENCY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE. ...ERN DAKOTAS... STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES ON 00Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THAT IS AIDING BANDED MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS SRN SD INTO NRN SD. A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS INTO INITIATION REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCEL ASCENT WILL REMAIN ROOTED NEAR 800MB...YET STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME HAIL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS THUS PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ...FL... TROPICAL SYSTEM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z WITH CENTER OF CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 100 ENE OF MLB. ALTHOUGH OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ROTATING INLAND...IT APPEARS ANY MEANINGFUL TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE MAINLAND THIS PERIOD. REF NHC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON OPHELIA. ..DARROW.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 04:53:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 23:53:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509080610.j886A8t3022234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080607 SWODY1 SPC AC 080605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SUX 30 W RWF 30 S STC 25 WNW EAU 15 NE VOK 10 S MSN 25 E MLI 30 NW BRL 10 SSW DSM 45 NE OMA 30 NNE SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CDR 45 ESE 81V 45 WNW Y22 20 W BIS 35 WSW JMS ABR 30 SSW 9V9 45 NNW MHN 35 W CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 30 NW VCT 25 NW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 10 WSW IGM 30 WNW SGU 35 WNW U24 45 W RKS 30 E RIW 40 WSW GCC 30 W MLS 35 E 3HT 35 S 27U 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 15 NE RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR ...CONT... 30 NNE ELO 50 WSW IWD 15 W AUW 40 NNW BEH 40 NE MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 40 ENE MKL 20 NNW ARG 10 NNE OJC 15 WSW HSI 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 15 E CAO 45 SW TCC 30 SE ONM 35 SE DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY REGION... EARLY MORNING MCS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN MN INTO ERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE ESEWD WITHIN MEAN FLOW TOWARD PORTIONS OF SRN WI/NRN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM NERN MO INTO NWRN IL AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. WHETHER AN ARTIFACT OF EARLY MORNING DEEP CONVECTION...OR A LARGER SCALE DISTURBANCE ALOFT...IT APPEARS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THIS CLUSTER AS IT ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM. IT APPEARS AN UPWARD EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGER STORM CLUSTER. ...DAKOTAS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IT APPEARS THE BLACK HILLS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR 00Z AS SFC BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD AFTER DARK AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...IN EXCESS OF 40KT...OVER CNTRL SD. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME LARGE SCALE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIKLIHOOD OF CONVECTION LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG VEERING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER YIELDING SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 35-50KT. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 11:29:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 06:29:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509081246.j88CkZJf017282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081243 SWODY1 SPC AC 081242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FSD 10 NNE ATY RWF 30 SSW LSE 45 WSW RFD SPI 35 S UIN IRK 45 W DSM SUX 30 NW FSD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 50 WSW IWD 15 W AUW 25 SW MKG 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 30 SW CKV 35 SSE POF 20 NNE UMN 20 ENE ICT 35 NW HUT 25 SW EAR 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 15 E CAO 45 SW TCC 15 N ALM 15 NW ELP ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 10 WSW IGM 30 WNW SGU 35 WNW U24 10 SSW EVW 10 WSW RIW 35 W GCC 30 W MLS 35 E 3HT 35 S 27U 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 15 NE RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 30 NW VCT 25 NW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45 ENE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MN/IA TODAY...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF TROUGH FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN/NORTHERN IA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL IA. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS MAY REMAIN SEVERE INTO THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO CENTRAL IL. ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW /AOA 30KT/ FROM THE BLACK HILLS NORTHWARD. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK. NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES SINCE ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. ..HART/GUYER.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 15:11:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 10:11:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509081628.j88GSD7W012867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081622 SWODY1 SPC AC 081620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E SUX 25 WNW MCW 30 ENE MCW 45 NNW DBQ 45 NW LAF 25 S MTO 35 NW ALN 35 WSW P35 35 ESE OMA 40 E SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW GBN 10 WSW IGM 35 ENE P38 25 NE DPG 40 SE MLD 45 N BPI 15 NNE WRL 40 SSE BIL 40 ESE LVM 35 S 27U 90 SSE BNO 40 ESE TVL 35 S TVL 55 S EKA ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 25 NNW BKE 40 SW MSO 50 SW HVR 65 N OLF ...CONT... 30 ESE RRT 40 S DLH 15 W AUW 25 SW MKG MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 35 NE HOP 35 ESE POF 40 ESE SGF 35 SSW OJC 20 ENE MHK 40 SSW EAR 20 SSW MCK 30 N LAA 15 E CAO 65 SW TCC 25 ESE TCS 30 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT GLS ...CONT... 15 SW CTY 35 SE VLD 40 NE AYS 35 E SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA INTO NERN MO/CENTRAL IL... ...IA INTO NERN MO/IL... LINEAR MCS NOW OVER NWRN IA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA THIS AFTERNOON /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2163/...AND MAY BE SUSTAINED INTO CENTRAL IL/NERN MO LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SWRN MN THIS MORNING. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS WWD FROM LAKE ERIE TO A LOW CENTER OVER ERN IL AND THEN NWWD INTO NWRN IA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ABOVE MENTIONED MCS TODAY. AIR MASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATTM AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...PARTLY DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES HEAT THROUGH THE 70S/LOWER 80S WITHIN WARM SECTOR...CAPPING WILL ERODE AND STORMS SHOULD ROOT INTO A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BY THE MID AFTERNOON AND SYSTEM MAY TURN MORE SEWD AND STRADDLE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. MODELS FORECAST WSWLY LLJ WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA TODAY...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BACK-BUILD INTO CENTRAL/ERN IA IN WAKE OF LEADING ACTIVITY. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT. NOT ONLY WILL THIS SUSTAIN ORGANIZED LINE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ATOP THE COLD POOL AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP LATER TODAY. ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH LACK OF LLJ INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ...NRN PLAINS... WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WRN SD TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE ND-SD BORDER AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THESE FEATURES...REGION WILL REMAIN IN A SUBSIDENT REGIME AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. THEREFORE...ANY ENSUING DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED ...THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. AFTER DARK...SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD AND MAY SUPPORT INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER ERN ND/FAR NWRN MN LATER TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 18:47:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 13:47:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509082004.j88K4W95002395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082001 SWODY1 SPC AC 081959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW LWD 15 WNW DSM 25 NNE DSM 45 SSW ALO 15 NW CID 15 NE MLI 10 SE CMI 30 SSE MTO 10 NNW SLO 35 NNE COU 25 SW P35 35 NW LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE RRT 40 S DLH 15 W AUW 25 SW MKG MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 35 NE HOP 35 ESE POF 40 ESE SGF 35 SSW OJC 20 ENE MHK 40 SSW EAR 20 SSW MCK 30 N LAA 15 E CAO 65 SW TCC 25 ESE TCS 30 SSW DMN ...CONT... 60 SW GBN 10 WSW IGM 35 ENE P38 25 NE DPG 40 SE MLD 45 N BPI 15 NNE WRL 40 SSE BIL 40 ESE LVM 35 S 27U 90 SSE BNO 35 ESE TVL 65 SSE TVL 45 E SAC SAC 40 W SAC 20 NW SFO ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 25 NNW BKE 40 SW MSO 50 SW HVR 65 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 65 WSW MIA 35 S AGR 25 NE GNV 35 NW SSI 35 E SAV ...CONT... 65 W COT GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS VLY... ...MID MS VLY... LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO /HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS AOA 70 KTS/ APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES SEWD AROUND 40 KTS. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A BOUNDARY SEWD FROM MCV OVER POWESHIEK COUNTY IA INTO CNTRL IL. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTN TO THE S OF THE FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. GIVEN THAT THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES HAVE BEEN LARGELY POSITIONED JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FORWARD PROPAGATION HAS BEEN DOMINATE WITH SEVERE WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SE TO CARRY A SEVERE THREAT. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REPOSITION WWD OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. BUT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE MCV AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM...A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT MIGHT EXTEND WELL SE INTO PARTS OF NERN MO AND CNTRL IL THROUGH THE EVENING. ...CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A BROAD PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARCING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ISOLD HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE BRIEFLY ROOTED INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG/ ACROSS NWRN NEB. THOUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGING/WARMING ARE TAKING PLACE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS...OTHER TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM THE HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION FROM SRN SD INTO NERN CO ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH. HERE... CONSIDERABLE HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY ERASE THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN A STORM. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS WILL BE ISOLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. LATER TONIGHT...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME EVOLVING ACROSS THE ERN DAKS AND NWRN MN. HERE...BANDS OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL. ..RACY.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 23:47:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 18:47:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509090105.j89157YN020779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090102 SWODY1 SPC AC 090101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE SAC 30 NW RBL 30 S MFR 70 NNW 4LW 50 SSW BNO 65 NW WMC 20 SSE RNO 55 NNE SAC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE RRT 40 NNW BRD 30 SSE RWF 20 WNW SUX 15 ENE MCK 25 NNW LAA 20 NE CAO 55 SW TCC 35 ESE TCS 40 S DMN ...CONT... 60 SW GBN 10 WSW IGM 35 ENE P38 25 NE DPG 40 SE MLD 45 N BPI 15 NNE WRL 35 N 81V 40 SSW DIK 20 SSE P24 40 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 65 WSW MIA 35 S AGR 25 NE GNV 35 NW SSI 35 E SAV ...CONT... 15 E BOS 20 SW POU 15 NNW HTS 25 N HOP 45 NW POF 45 N SZL 25 N LWD 50 NE DSM 30 NE CID 10 NE MMO 10 SW AZO 15 SSW MTC ...CONT... 65 W COT GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEB/SD... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION DEPICT A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 550MB. THIS PROVED FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN NEB INTO EXTREME SCNTRL SD. HOWEVER...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS TO HAVE ADVERSELY AFFECTED THESE UPDRAFTS AND ONLY WEAK REMNANTS REMAIN...DRIFTING NEWD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN TSTM CARCASSES. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LLJ WILL INCREASE AIDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPDRAFT RECOVERY AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS PARCELS BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS...WARM ADVECTION COULD AID A FEW STRONG STORMS AS THEY SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD AFTER DARK. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT. ...IL/OH VALLEY... IA/IL MCS HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE FROM CNTRL IND INTO NERN OH. ILN/PIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...HARDLY SUPPORTIVE OF ANY MEANINGFUL SEVERE THREAT. OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL PROVE TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 06:04:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 01:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509090722.j897MtWn008459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090601 SWODY1 SPC AC 090559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS ...CONT... 30 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ANJ 60 NNW EAU 20 NNW BKX 25 SSW ANW 15 N CAO 4CR 15 NNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 65 SE U31 40 SE NFL RNO 35 SSW SVE 55 NW SVE 60 ESE 4LW 10 NE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DBQ 10 NE MMO 45 NNE LAF 30 SW FDY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 30 W CSV 50 NE MKL 55 NW POF 25 WSW COU 10 SSE IRK 30 NE OTM 25 SSE DBQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...4-CORNERS REGION... LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR SFO...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE INLAND DURING THE DAY AS UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS UT. OVER THE LAST 24-48 HRS...DEEP LAYER TRAJECTORIES HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING MOISTURE ACROSS NRN MEXICO...INTO THE DESERT SW AND 4-CORNERS REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUS AND PHX INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE STEADILY INCREASED...WITH VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. IT APPEARS SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY PLUME BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TYPICAL STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOULD PROVE HELPFUL IN THIS DECISION PROCESS. GREATEST SEVERE RISKS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN LESS VEERING ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WRN ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THURSDAY EVENING EXHIBITED A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH QUITE WARM SFC TEMPERATURES. THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY NOT PROVE THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH LEE CYCLONE OVER MT. IT APPEARS SFC HEATING WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY SERVING AS AN INITIATING ZONE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM...STRENGTHENING CAP BUT INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/ARROWHEAD OF MN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...CAP WILL PROVE STRONGER THAN FORECAST THUS FORCING PARCEL LIFT TO SUCH A LEVEL THAT INSTABILITY WILL PROVE LACKING FOR ANY MEANINGFUL STORMS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. ..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 11:44:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 06:44:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509091302.j89D2RPs024162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091259 SWODY1 SPC AC 091258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 55 S DLH 10 NNE STC 50 SE FAR 45 SE JMS 50 SSW DVL 60 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PRC 15 E CDC 50 NE U24 30 NW VEL 40 WSW MTJ 55 ENE SOW 65 ENE PHX 20 N PRC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS ...CONT... 20 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ANJ 30 ENE GRB 25 ENE RST 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 65 SE U31 40 SE NFL RNO 35 SSW SVE 55 NW SVE 60 ESE 4LW 10 NE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DBQ 10 NE MMO 45 NNE LAF 30 SW FDY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 30 W CSV 50 NE MKL 55 NW POF 25 WSW COU 10 SSE IRK 30 NE OTM 25 SSE DBQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE PERSISTS IN THE E AND TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE FAR W. UPR LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD SETTLE SE INTO THE NWRN U.S. TODAY AS UPR LOW ATTM NEAR SFO EJECTS NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN. FARTHER E...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES NOW OVER UT AND ERN WY EXPECTED TO LIFT RESPECTIVELY NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS...AND ENE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... IMPULSE EXITING WY THIS MORNING WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT CROSSING THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE INFLOW /PWS AOA ONE INCH/...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ KT WLY FLOW AT 500 MB...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL FROM ERN ND INTO THE NRN HALF OF MN. THIS THREAT SHOULD EDGE E/NE WITH TIME AND DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ MOVE BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SIMILAR WARM ADVECTION STORMS MAY FORM OVER FAR NERN ND/NRN NM TONIGHT AS LLJ DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS AND UPSTREAM IMPULSE BEGINS TO APPROACH REGION. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER... EXPECT THAT WARMER 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES AND BACKED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGH. RESULTING CAP SHOULD SHUNT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. ...AZ/UT/WRN CO/WRN NM... SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF UT/AZ AND CO/NW NM LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPR LOW NOW NEAR SFO CONTINUES E ACROSS NV TODAY...AND THEN TURNS MORE NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST OBSERVED PW/RAOB DATA INDICATE THAT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO REGION FROM NRN MEXICO. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ABOVE ONE INCH IN SRN AZ...AND COULD RISE TO NEARLY AN INCH OVER NRN AZ AND ERN UT LATER TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALSO HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY AT FGZ RELATIVE TO LAST EVENING. STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY IN WAKE OF ERN UT UPR DISTURBANCE. GIVEN EXISTING STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT...SETUP MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. WITH DEEP SSWLY SHEAR LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO AOA 40 KTS AHEAD OF CA/NV TROUGH...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS/CLUSTERS THAT POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BACKED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AND REDUCED DEEP SHEAR ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLAINS RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. BUT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD... HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK IN WAKE OF UPR IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE REGION. LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN MT. SFC HEATING MAY ALLOW PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY SERVING AS AN INITIATING ZONE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. BUT EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ATTM. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 15:01:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 10:01:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509091618.j89GIxvS001759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091603 SWODY1 SPC AC 091601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW CMX 55 WSW IWD 15 SE BRD 50 SE FAR 50 SE JMS 30 NNE MBG 35 NW MBG 20 WSW BIS 40 SW DVL 70 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SOW 50 E PHX 10 NW PRC 55 S SGU MLF 55 WNW PUC 30 NW VEL 40 NE VEL 35 WSW CAG 15 SSE CEZ 50 ENE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC 25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 55 SW ELY 55 SE U31 35 NW TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 45 SW TVL 60 ESE RBL 40 NW SVE 50 ESE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CTY 10 NNE SSI ...CONT... 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PSK 20 S JKL 40 S PAH 50 N POF 45 SSW UIN 25 NW UIN 35 ESE BRL 20 WSW BMI 20 SE DNV 30 NW ZZV 10 NW LBE 25 NNW HGR 25 E MRB 10 NW CHO 15 NNE PSK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND AND NRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO NRN/CENTRAL AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS SWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW...RESULTING IN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BEING EJECTED NEWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. WEAKER SHORT WAVES ARE ALSO NOTED OVER ERN WY AND CENTRAL ND. FARTHER EAST...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM SRN MT/SD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. ...ND/NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION... ELEVATED STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ENEWD FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION BEST IDENTIFIED NEAR 850 MB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM EXHIBITED BY AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM LAYER BASED NEAR 850 MB...AND THIS VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER... PERSISTENT LIFT ABOVE THE CAP MAY ALLOW ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/ERN ND EWD AND NRN MN INTO THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATES MOST STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE HAD SHORT-LIVED INTENSE UPDRAFTS ALTHOUGH RECENT ACTIVITY NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFT CHARACTERISTICS. THREAT FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND NRN MN...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NWRN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD IN ADVANCE OF ERN WY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THESE MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF ND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT IF THESE STORMS CAN SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TOWARD LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS ERN PARTS OF DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND PERSIST...THEY MAY ALSO POSE THREAT FOR ELEVATED HAIL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE ERN WY SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. ...UT/NRN AZ REGION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EWD...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. STRONG SSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT FGZ/SLC/GJT INDICATE PRESENCE OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 0.75 IN AND LOWER LEVEL MIXING RATIOS AOA 8 G/KG...SUGGESTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND ADVANCING MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL TO DEVELOP...MAINLY FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..WEISS/BANACOS.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 18:47:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 13:47:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509092005.j89K5mfW029047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092002 SWODY1 SPC AC 092000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW CMX 55 WSW IWD 15 SE BRD 50 SE FAR 35 S GFK 10 ENE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SOW 20 S PHX 55 NW GBN 55 S SGU 35 W OGD 25 NE OGD 50 ENE EVW 40 NE VEL 35 WSW CAG 15 SSE CEZ 50 ENE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC 25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 55 SW ELY 55 SE U31 35 NW TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 45 SW TVL 60 ESE RBL 40 NW SVE 50 ESE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PSK 20 S JKL 40 S PAH 50 N POF 45 SSW UIN 25 NW UIN 35 ESE BRL 20 WSW BMI 20 SE DNV 30 NW ZZV 10 NW LBE 25 NNW HGR 25 E MRB 10 NW CHO 15 NNE PSK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN SWD INTO AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...GREAT BASIN SWD INTO THE AZ DESERTS... TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED RATHER EARLY TODAY AS A BAND OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN NV UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPREAD EWD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT. GOES SOUNDER CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT OF 1-1.5 INCHES ADVECTING NWD FROM THE AZ DESERTS NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN UT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THIS UPPER IMPULSE. TYPICALLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WAS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES FROM NRN AZ INTO CNTRL/ERN UT...SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TSTMS. AS 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM KFLG/KSLC/KPHX SUGGEST...STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS MOSTLY NRN/CNTRL AZ INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN WHERE 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOTED. CONSEQUENTLY...TSTMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO AS THEY MOVE TOWARD SWRN WY AND WRN CO LATER THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE AZ DESERTS LATER THIS AFTN. TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER THIS AFTN. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN FARTHER N...BUT STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... PLAN-VIEW VWP AND OBJECTIVELY DERIVED THERMAL ADVECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY EWD INTO NRN MN. THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE EDGE OF A STRONG CAP COVERING THE NRN PLAINS AND PARCELS REACHING THE LFC EXHIBIT MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE AND HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF THE SSWLY LLJ INTO THIS REGIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER NRN MN...AND TRACK ESEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR OR NWRN WI DURING THE NIGHT. FARTHER W...SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS THE DAKS. BUT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH NRN SD WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SERN ND AND EXTREME NERN SD HAS BECOME VERY WARM. THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY EITHER DEVELOP AND/OR ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IF HEATING/LARGE SCALE ASCENT CAN ERODE THE CINH SUFFICIENTLY LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. IF AN UPDRAFT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT GIVEN THE 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..RACY.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 23:50:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 18:50:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509100108.j8A18EZE018882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100105 SWODY1 SPC AC 100103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 45 WSW GCN 20 S CDC 60 NNE P38 75 SW ELY TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 35 ENE SAC 25 E RBL 45 ESE MHS 25 SSE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK ...CONT... 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC 25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... 00Z SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF UPPER MAIN TROUGH CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO INTO ERN AZ. IT APPEARS A LEAD DISTURBANCE IS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WITH BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED AT BOTH GJT AND SLC. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF LEAD CONVECTION ACROSS CO. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ AS SWLY FLOW DEEPENS ALONG SRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SRN ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD NM BORDER. ERN UT/WRN CO SHOULD HAVE LITTLE SEVERE THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL NOT MATERIALIZE. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL DRYING CERTAINLY MINIMIZES OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY YET ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOCUSED LLJ ACROSS ERN SD INTO NRN MN WILL FAVOR PARCEL ASCENT ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 04:36:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 23:36:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509100554.j8A5sCKQ014227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100550 SWODY1 SPC AC 100548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 NNW PHX 35 E GCN 15 SSW U17 40 NNE 4BL 20 WSW GUC 45 WSW PUB 20 NNE RTN 45 ESE CVS LBB ABI 45 E CLL 15 ESE BPT ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 20 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ESE OSC 15 N PLN 20 NNE MQT 70 N IWD DLH 30 NE RWF 45 N BUB 30 S VTN 25 SSW PHP 40 ESE 81V 50 NW CPR 45 SSW BPI 45 ENE ENV 35 N U31 10 WNW RNO 40 S RBL 45 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN EJECTING DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD NWD QUICKLY WITH GREATEST REGION OF ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE SUPPRESSIVE CAP NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MAINLY NRN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO ONTARIO AS WARM FRONT RETREATS TOWARD JAMES BAY. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS WILL NEED MINIMAL FORCING TO REACH THEIR LFC. HOWEVER...VEERING PROFILES AND NWD SHIFT OF DEEP ASCENT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS...PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NERN MT OR NWRN ND. IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE NEAR REGION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...A FEW UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT STRETCHING FROM SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...NEWD INTO MANITOBA. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 11:37:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 06:37:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509101255.j8ACtLV2014813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101252 SWODY1 SPC AC 101250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ESE OSC 30 NW MBS 15 NNW MBL 20 S MQT DLH 30 NE RWF 45 N BUB 30 S VTN 25 SSW PHP 40 ESE 81V 50 NW CPR 45 SSW BPI 45 WSW DPG 30 ESE U31 25 SSE RNO 40 S RBL 45 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 NNW PHX 35 E GCN 15 SSW U17 40 NNE 4BL 20 WSW GUC 45 WSW PUB 20 NNE RTN 45 ESE CVS LBB ABI 45 E CLL 15 ESE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEP UPR LOW NOW OVER WA SETTLES S INTO ORE...AND CLOSED ANTICYCLONE EVOLVES OVER THE LWR TN VLY. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS OVER UT/AZ YESTERDAY IS NOW ENTERING WRN CO/SW WY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE INTO MANITOBA BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND BECOME ABSORBED IN FAST SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY TO UPR GRT LKS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CO/WY IMPULSE CONTINUING TO DAMPEN AS IT LIFTS NNE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE WRN DAKOTAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO SRN MANITOBA BY 00Z SUNDAY. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SERVE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN EXISTING CAP AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVR THE NRN PLNS. WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM CO/WY DISTURBANCE IS SUPPORTING SWATH OF HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WRN SD ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE NNE INTO ND BY MIDDAY...AND INTO NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STRENGTHENING/UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS. OTHER WARM ADVECTION STORMS ARE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY ESSENTIALLY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF AMPLIFYING TN VLY RIDGE...AND AFTER MIDDAY LIKELY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO ONTARIO. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING UPR IMPULSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARCELS WILL NEED MINIMAL FORCING TO REACH THE LFC. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL/ LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. BUT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS...AND FROM SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...NEWD INTO MANITOBA. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 15:07:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 10:07:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509101625.j8AGPlOp000877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101614 SWODY1 SPC AC 101612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 40 SE PHX 30 S INW 50 W 4SL 25 NNE 4SL 50 NNW LVS 45 SE RTN 35 NW AMA 55 NNW CDS 10 S CDS 20 W ABI 35 SSW ABI 25 SW BWD 45 S SEP 15 NW ACT 50 SW TYR LFK BPT ...CONT... 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E APN 30 S HTL 40 SSW MBL 10 NNE MKE 25 NNW CGX 30 N MMO 40 WSW RFD 20 ENE LNR 25 ENE AUW 25 NE RHI 15 NNE IWD 10 W DLH 20 SW BRD 25 NNE HON 20 NW PIR 35 SE Y22 30 NE REJ 40 WSW REJ 35 ESE BPI 40 W DPG 30 ESE U31 25 SSE RNO 50 ENE UKI 50 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION SETTLES SLOWLY SWD AND DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SRN CANADA BY THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...REACHING A NWRN MN/CENTRAL SD/WRN NEB LINE BY 11/12Z. ...NRN PLAINS... A BAND OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL ND ATTM...IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BIS AND ABR INDICATE PRESENCE OF PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB. THIS CAP MAY STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING HIGH PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS...LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. ...NRN LAKE MI/NRN LOWER MI AREA... AN ELEVATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING SEWD FROM UPPER MI INTO NRN LAKE MI ON THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CENTERED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON GRB SOUNDING ABOVE 700 MB ARE ENHANCING UPWARD PARCEL ACCELERATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REESTABLISHES FARTHER WEST OVER MN AND WARM ADVECTION FORCING WEAKENS OVER THE LAKE MI/LOWER MI REGION. ...SRN TX... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNEWD FROM THE BIG BEND REGION TOWARD PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...AND CU FIELD IS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 18:42:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 13:42:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509102000.j8AK02SG023930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101957 SWODY1 SPC AC 101955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 40 SE PHX 30 S INW 15 SSW GUP 25 ENE ONM 25 W 4CR 60 WSW TCC 35 SW DHT 30 NNW GLD 30 W LBF 35 NNE LBF BBW 20 NNW HLC 25 N LBL 60 E AMA 20 S BGS 40 W SJT 35 SSE SJT 50 NE JCT 45 SE BWD 25 WNW ACT 20 NNW ACT 45 NE ACT 25 SW TYR 20 NE LFK 15 SE BPT ...CONT... 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ISN 20 SSE SDY 45 NNE SHR 40 WSW WRL 45 NNE EVW 45 WSW DPG 40 ESE U31 10 NNW TVL 40 SSW RBL 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 40 SE GFK 45 WNW FAR 40 NW JMS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GRTLKS REGION... OVERNIGHT MCS THAT TRACKED SSEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND INTO NWRN LWR MI HAS DIMINISHED TO A FEW SHOWERS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN LWR/LAKE MI DURING THE REST OF THE AFTN/EVENING. STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES OVER WI/LK MI AREA WHERE TRAILING PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW EXISTS. BUT...WARM AIR ALOFT WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NEWD TOWARD THE GRTLKS REGION AND SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO SURFACE-BASED INITIATION ACROSS ERN WI. THUS... SEVERE/GENERAL TSTM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED. ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FROM ERN MT INTO CNTRL ND. AN ELEVATED BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY TRANSLATE NEWD IN THE WARM CONVEYER AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO ADJACENT CANADA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF THE LEE-TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WRN ND/CNTRL SD IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL FORM VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF CAP OVER THE REGION. UPSTREAM...A BAND OF TSTMS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT VCNTY THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS NERN MT WHERE A PEAK WIND GUST TO 47 KTS WAS OBSERVED AT KGGW AT 1832Z. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SASK-MT BORDER. ...S TX... TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA AND BENEATH THE VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING NWD ALONG THE COAHUILA/TX BORDER. THOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY TSTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUB-5 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 23:26:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 18:26:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509110044.j8B0i0UF022585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110042 SWODY1 SPC AC 110040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 20 WSW GDV 25 WNW SHR 15 NW BPI 35 NW DPG 40 ESE U31 10 NNW TVL 40 SSW RBL 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 35 NW TUS 50 N TUS 55 SE SOW 20 WNW 4CR 25 WNW CVS 25 NW LBB 60 NE BGS 20 ESE ABI 30 SSE FTW 50 WSW TYR 35 WSW LFK 10 W GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW FMY 20 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WA... A LARGE WRN US UPPER-TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THE UPPER-LOW CENTER IS LOCATED OVER WA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LOW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -22 C WHICH IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A BRIEF HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ELSEWHERE...SW FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE CNTRL US WITH AN UPPER-RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US. THIS IS RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE US WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SRN AND WRN TX WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THAT REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 04:43:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 23:43:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509110601.j8B61KKh019148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110558 SWODY1 SPC AC 110557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 25 SE AXN 30 SW BKX 40 NNE VTN 25 SE PHP 40 WSW MBG 25 S BIS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 40 SE RAP 50 ESE REJ 10 WSW Y22 45 S P24 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW HQM 30 SSW GEG 25 NNE HLN 15 SSW SHR 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND...ENOUGH ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD REACHING ERN ND AND CNTRL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. NAM/NAMKF AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS IN THE EVENING WITH A STORM COMPLEX SPREADING NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN MN OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 7.0 C/KM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS FALLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTION AND MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE. ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS HURRICANE OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF SC THROUGH TODAY WITH A SLIGHT NWWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A FEW RAINBANDS CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL EXCEED 40 KT WITH MUCAPE VALUES REACHING NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING CELLS AS RAINBANDS NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN ATTM...IF STORMS CAN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COAST...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 11:32:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 06:32:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509111250.j8BCoZbN005127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111248 SWODY1 SPC AC 111246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 35 WSW MBG 55 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 10 WSW Y22 45 S P24 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 15 E CNK 15 SSW ICT 15 NE OKC 20 SSW ADM 30 ESE DAL 45 SW LFK 25 SW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40 ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DEEP WRN U.S. TROUGH BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SPEED MAX NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN LIFTS NE ACROSS ID/WY. CONTINUED NE MOTION OF THE IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING OF EXISTING MAIN UPR CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ORE/NRN CA...AND STRENGTHENING OF CENTER NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/SRN MANITOBA. FARTHER E...AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN CLOSED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LWR OH/TN VLYS...AND KEEP HRCN OPHELIA MORE OR LESS STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD OFF THE CAROLINA CST. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE WHICH EJECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLNS ON SATURDAY NOW EXTENDS FROM WRN ONTARIO SW ACROSS ERN ND INTO CNTRL SD/WRN NEB. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AND MAY EVEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRESS...BEFORE RESUMING ITS E/SE MOTION TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS ID/WY IMPULSE CONTINUES NE INTO CANADA. ...CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND MN... MODERATE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY... ESPECIALLY W OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL /ERN NEB NNE INTO MN. MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF STALLING FRONT...WITH AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. COUPLED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ALREADY IN PLACE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MLCAPE WILL BE AOA 1500 J/KG OVER THE ERN DAKS BY AFTERNOON. CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BY EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF ID/WY IMPULSE WILL INDUCE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN PLNS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN ND BY NIGHTFALL. WITH DEEP SSWLY SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS...ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A SUSTAINED BAND...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR BOTH HAIL AND HIGH WIND. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WIND FIELD...INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SRN PLNS...AND LINEAR FORCING OF FRONT ALL SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO BACK-BUILDING QUASI-LINEAR MCS TONIGHT. THIS MAY EXTEND A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL SSW INTO PARTS OF SD AND SW MN EARLY MONDAY. ...NC/SC CST... LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE TPC...AND SATELLITE AND SURFACE TRENDS /I.E. LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION NOW IN PROGRESS OFF THE MD/VA/NRN NC CST/...SUGGEST THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN OPHELIA LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 15:23:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 10:23:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509111641.j8BGf1aL021251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111628 SWODY1 SPC AC 111626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 35 WSW MBG 55 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 65 SW SOW 25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 25 WSW Y22 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 150 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 15 E CNK 15 SSW ICT 15 NE OKC 20 SSW ADM 30 ESE DAL 45 SW LFK 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40 ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JAX 40 NE AYS 50 WNW CHS 35 WNW ILM HSE ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. AIR MASS REMAINS DRY THIS MORNING WITH VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ON ABR AND BIS SOUNDINGS AT 12Z. HOWEVER...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT NNEWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE U.S. WILL SUSTAIN SSWLY LLJ OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RICHER H85 MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...BOOSTING SURFACE DEW POINTS AS MOISTURE MIXES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE AS FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS ND LATE IN THE DAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SURFACE BASED INTO ERN ND/NERN SD BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH STORMS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND SPREADING INTO WRN MN. EARLY ON...STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A DUEL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...SRN FL... MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER FL TODAY. THOUGH WINDS REMAIN VERY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...UNIFORM WLY COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SHIFT WELL INLAND. RESULTANT SEA BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS WITHIN A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD THUS SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN PULSE-TYPE AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 18:37:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 13:37:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509111954.j8BJswKk011208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111952 SWODY1 SPC AC 111951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 30 ENE Y22 70 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 25 SE 4SL 30 NNW EHA 25 E GLD 30 NE IML 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 30 SSW DIK 50 N MOT ...CONT... 150 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 15 E CNK 45 NNE PNC 45 SSW TUL 30 WSW MLC 40 NNE ACT 45 SW LFK 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40 ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS INTO NRN/WRN MN... ...CNTRL/ERN DAKS INTO WRN/NRN MN... MESOANALYSIS SERIES SHOWS THAT THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS HAS RETREATED THIS AFTN AND EXTENDS FROM ERN/CNTRL ND SWWD TO THE BLACK HILLS VCNTY. GPS/SATL DERIVED PWATS HAVE SHOWN A RAPID ADVECTION OF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION AND MAY LARGELY EXPLAIN THE EXISTENCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS LIFTING NWD INTO NWRN MN AT MID-AFTN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CNTRL ND ATOP THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SWRN SASK. ADVECTION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NRN PLAINS. BUT...RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG...EVEN WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90F. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SASK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS MOVE/SPREAD EWD...GRAZING NRN EDGES OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ND AND PARTS OF NERN SD THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN/WRN MN OVERNIGHT. AVAILABILITY OF 40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A MEAN WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A BROAD BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WRN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MCS IS APT TO BACKBUILD SWWD INTO THE STRONGER LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES LATER TONIGHT ACROSS ERN SD AND PARTS OF WRN MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY SUSTAIN THREATS FOR HAIL/ WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NRN PARTS OF THE MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE INSTABILITY/LLJ. ...SRN FL... WCOAST SEABREEZE SHOULD COLLIDE WITH THE ECOAST SEABREEZE LATER THIS AFTN SOMEWHERE OVER S FL. NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARIES AND COULD BECOME STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE. AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD RESULT. ..RACY.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 23:33:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 18:33:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509120051.j8C0pYdH009338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120049 SWODY1 SPC AC 120048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 50 E BRD 30 N YKN 45 SSW MHE 15 SSW 9V9 45 NE PIR 20 SSE DVL 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 20 E PDT 45 SSW 3DU 45 NW COD 15 E WRL 50 SW GCC 30 ESE 81V 30 SE REJ Y22 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE APN 25 SW PLN 40 NNW GRB 25 NW LSE 35 N OMA 20 SW BIE 25 SSW MHK 10 N BVO 25 WNW MKO 10 WSW DUA 25 E SEP 25 SSW TPL 45 ESE AUS 30 WSW GLS ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG 40 W SVC 20 E GNT 45 ESE DRO 45 NNE DRO 40 SE CNY 30 SW P38 55 N NID 25 NE FAT 20 NNE SAC 30 NE UKI 55 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BHB 35 NNW BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...ND/SD/MN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NWRN STATES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH BUT ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY HELP ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THE CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE ERN DAKOTAS AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS MODELS ALL INITIATE STORMS IN THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVERNIGHT SPREADING EWD INTO WRN MN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SE ND/ERN SD AND ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF MN. IN ADDITION...THE ABERDEEN 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE FASTER AND MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN AND NRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS. THE STORM COMPLEX IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NNEWD ACROSS WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 04:40:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 23:40:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509120558.j8C5wc9U012520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120556 SWODY1 SPC AC 120555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW ANJ 35 E ALO 45 SE OMA 35 ESE GRI 35 SSE MHN 15 SSW DGW 25 NW CPR 55 ESE WRL 45 WSW GCC 55 SSE Y22 45 ESE JMS 40 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 35 WNW LFK 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP 45 NNW ONM 15 S 4SL 25 WSW EHA 20 ESE GLD 45 ENE AKO 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15 NNE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL PICK UP SPEED TODAY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS STORMS WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AND MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE IN SOME AREAS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ACROSS ERN NEB AND FAR SERN SD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH THE BEST SUPERCELL THREAT OVER SERN SD...ERN NEB AND NW IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS AND VARYING INSTABILITY SPATIALLY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MANY MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER SERN SD AND ERN NEB WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE GREATEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES CREATING CURVED HODOGRAPHS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE CLOSELY PARALLEL TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM NRN NEB ACROSS FAR SERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ...HIGH PLAINS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EWD QUICKLY INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ACCENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS SFC HEATING OCCURS...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND SWRN SD WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NRN NEB. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE LIFT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS INSTABILITY DROPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 11:48:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 06:48:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509121305.j8CD5oDn018466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121303 SWODY1 SPC AC 121301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ANW 30 NNE ANW 20 WNW MHE 35 W RWF 30 SSE FRM 15 SE OMA 20 SE GRI 40 S ANW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW ANJ 35 E ALO 30 NNE FNB 35 SSE HSI 35 SSE MHN 15 SSW DGW 25 NW CPR 55 ESE WRL 45 WSW GCC 55 SSE Y22 45 ESE JMS 40 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 10 NW HTL 35 NW MKG 15 NW MKE 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 35 WNW LFK 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP 45 NNW ONM 15 S 4SL 25 WSW EHA 20 ESE GLD 45 ENE AKO 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 40 S BZN 30 WSW BIL 15 E MLS 25 SSW P24 55 ESE MOT 70 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND ERN NEB...SE SD...SW MN AND NW IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY ATTM OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NRN GRT BASIN UPR LOW BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE ENEWD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REACH ERN WY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NE INTO ERN ND /NW MN EARLY TUESDAY. FARTHER S...SATELLITE AND PROFILER DATA DEPICT SEPARATE SRN BRANCH JET EXTENDING FROM SRN CA TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ABOVE SYSTEMS...UPR DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NEB/SD SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ACROSS MN LATER TODAY...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THAT REGION. IN THE EAST...WITH PATTERN REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT...ONLY A SLOW OVERALL NW DRIFT EXPECTED WITH HRCN OPHELIA. AT LWR LEVELS...FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED OVER THE N CNTRL STATES/WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY...NOW OVER WRN NEB...SHOULD LIFT NE ALONG FRONT THIS EVENING. ...NRN PTNS OF THE CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER NEB/SD...AND LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHICH OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLNS LATE YESTERDAY...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS ERN SD/MN..NRN WI AND WRN UPR MI TODAY. WHILE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SHORT LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE STORMS...STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING INVOF FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION OVER SE SD/NRN AND ERN NEB AND PERHAPS SW MN/NW IA. AT THE SAME TIME...MID AND UPR LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER AND INCREASE AS NOSE OF SRN STREAM JET BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. WITH 500 MB SPEEDS EXCEEDING 30 KTS...DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40 KTS. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S/...TIMING APPEARS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS... ESPECIALLY OVER NRN/ERN NEB AND SE SD. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS REGION SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM MORE LINEAR-FORCED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE IN WY. THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A CLUSTER AND CONTINUE E/NE INTO PARTS OF IA/MN THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER WRN NEB AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND SWRN SD. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG FRONT IN NW NEB. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED /MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS GENERALLY EWD LATER THIS EVENING. ...SRN HI PLNS... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND WILL EXIST IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT INVOF SRN EXTENTION OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS SW NEB AND WRN KS. STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML/SRN STREAM JET LIKELY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY. ...CSTL NC... THE OUTER FRINGE OF HRCN OPHELIA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CAPE FEAR/CAPE LOOKOUT AREAS TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY...GIVEN CURRENT TPC FORECAST. LOW LEVEL COOL/DRY ADVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY N AND W OF CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED. THUS...REGION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TSTMS GRAZING THE REGION ON THE FAR N/NW EDGE OF THE STORM. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 15:01:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 10:01:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509121619.j8CGJiR3029704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121611 SWODY1 SPC AC 121609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ANW 30 NNE ANW 20 WNW MHE 35 W RWF 30 SSE FRM 35 N OMA 25 N GRI 40 S ANW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW ANJ 25 S LSE 40 SE OMA 15 SW HSI 15 NNE LBF 55 N CYS DGW 55 NNW DGW 15 N 81V 65 SSE Y22 55 NNE ATY 25 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 35 NW MKG 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 15 S 4SL 40 NW CAO 45 SSW LAA 15 NW LAA 25 ESE LIC 35 NW LIC 35 SSW 4FC 20 N GJT 10 SW PUC 30 E DPG 35 SSW PIH 20 NNE MQM 40 S BZN 20 W MLS 20 E P24 70 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 35 N GNV 15 WNW SAV 30 N CHS 15 NNE EWN HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR ERN WY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED TODAY BY STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING NEWD TOWARD WY. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH ASSOCIATED 45-55 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS MAIN FEATURE...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUSTAINING AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN SD ACROSS MUCH OF MN THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM...WITH ACCOMPANYING ASCENT AND CONVECTION...WILL SHIFT NNEWD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN MN INTO SERN SD/N-CENTRAL NEB...WHILE STRONGER N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND SHIFTS EWD ACROSS ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG TRIPLE POINT OVER FAR WRN NEB/ERN WY LATER TODAY AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN NEB OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SERN SD/N-CENTRAL AND NERN NEB...AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR ERN WY/SWRN SD/WRN NEB INVOF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ...NERN SD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... INITIAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SYSTEM OVER ERN SD/MN SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG AND NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT...EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FEEDING THE STORMS FROM THE SW AND MODEST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY DEVELOP MID LEVEL ROTATION AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER NRN WI/SERN MN INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI WHERE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES AT GRB WERE QUITE WEAK THIS MORNING AND MAY BE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO THIS REGION. ...ERN SD/ERN NEB INTO SWRN MN/IA... MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER 21Z...DESPITE THE MORE LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF EJECTING SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF ERN/CENTRAL NEB AND WRN IA...WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE. IN ADDITION...COMBINATION OF HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE MAY INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL NEB/FAR SERN SD LATER TODAY...AS FORECAST BY THE RUC. THIS WILL INCREASE BOTH CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 21-00Z...SUGGESTING ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS /I.E. BETWEEN 35-45 KT/ WITHIN DEEP SWLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTING HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ...FAR ERN WY/WRN NEB INTO CENTRAL NEB/SRN SD... AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM. HOWEVER...STRONG ASCENT AND INCREASING ESELY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT MID 40F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY INTO FAR ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE LATE TODAY. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ENHANCED/DEEP ASCENT SHOULD THEREFORE SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS NEB/SRN SD OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THESE STORMS REMAIN SURFACE-BASED...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE COMMON WITH STRONGER CELLS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY THREAT ONCE STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED AFTER DARK. ...FAR ERN NC... A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO HAS BEEN ADDED OVER FAR ERN NC AS RAINBANDS FROM T.S. OPHELIA APPROACH THE OUTER BANKS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 19:03:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 14:03:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509122020.j8CKKn8l029199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122015 SWODY1 SPC AC 122014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ANW 30 NNE ANW HON 35 W RWF FRM SUX BBW 40 S ANW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW ANJ 35 W GRB 40 SE OMA 15 SW HSI 20 NNE IML 55 N CYS DGW 40 W GCC 15 N 81V MBG AXN 25 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 35 NW MKG 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 35 NW 4SL 15 SE ALS 15 NNE CAO 10 E LAA 25 ESE LIC 35 NW LIC 35 SSW 4FC 20 N GJT 10 SW PUC 30 E DPG 35 SSW PIH 20 NNE MQM 40 S BZN MLS 20 E P24 70 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SAV FLO 15 NNE EWN HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN NEB...NWRN IA...SWRN MN...SERN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN WY TO SRN/WRN LS SHORELINE... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND WRN CONUS. LEAD SHORTWAVE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ACROSS SWRN WY -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS BLACK HILLS REGION INTO DAKOTAS THROUGH 13/12Z. SFC FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE -- ANALYZED AT 18Z SE PIR...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO SWRN MN TONIGHT...WITH WEAK/SECONDARY LOW REMAINING INVOF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION INVOF WRN PORTION KS/NEB BORDER. ...N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SD...AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE...IN AREA OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED PRESSURE FALLS AND BACKED SFC WINDS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 FOR LATEST DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT IN LIGHTNING DATA ACROSS CENTRAL WY MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS ADJACENT BASINS AND HIGH PLAINS OVER NXT SEVERAL HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ATOP RELATIVELY DRY AND DEEPLY-MIXED POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG CAP STILL EVIDENT IN 18Z LBF RAOB SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. PRIND GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE AFTER DARK IN AND NEAR CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...WHERE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF WIND/HAIL EVENTS IS EXPECTED. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED IN BETWEEN PRINCIPAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...HOWEVER FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S F...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE CAP BEFORE DARK OVER PORTIONS SRN SD AND NEB. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROLIFERATE AFTER DARK WITH MCS LIKELY EVOLVING...SUPPORTED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...35-45 KT SSWLY LLJ AND MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG INVOF MO VALLEY. ....COASTAL CAROLINAS... TS OPHELIA IS FCST BY NHC TO TURN NWD THIS PERIOD AND...GIVEN PRESENT TRACK...WILL PLACE MORE OF COASTAL NC IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR REGIME ALONG OUTER NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION. VWP FRM ILM ALREADY INDICATES SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT MINI SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER LIMITED LAND AREA BENEATH FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVELOPE...LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE EACH WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL INLAND. REF LATEST CHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR GUIDANCE RELATED TO TRACK/INTENSITY OF TS OPHELIA AS WELL AS ALL TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 23:44:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 18:44:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509130101.j8D11tYn032369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130059 SWODY1 SPC AC 130057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W OLU 35 ENE BUB 40 WNW YKN 25 WNW BKX 50 SSW AXN 40 SSE AXN 40 SSW STC 25 W MKT 15 SSE OTG 20 S SUX 20 NE OLU 40 W OLU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ANJ 50 S ESC 40 WNW OSH 30 NNW ALO 30 NNW DSM 20 NNE FNB 35 ESE SLN 20 WSW ICT 15 S P28 40 SE DDC 35 NNE DDC 30 SE MCK 30 WNW LBF 10 N AIA 35 W CDR 45 WSW RAP 25 NNW RAP 25 SSW MBG 50 WNW AXN 30 W DLH 55 NW IWD 40 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 25 WSW HTL 20 NW MKG 40 WSW RFD 30 SSE OTM 45 ENE CNU 25 S MLC 20 N TYR 20 ESE BPT ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG 45 S GNT 10 W 4SL 60 WSW RTN 40 E RTN 45 WNW EHA 40 SW GLD 15 WNW AKO 35 E RKS 50 ENE MLD 30 N IDA 15 N WEY 25 NNE MLS 55 WSW DVL 30 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 30 NNW CHS 10 SE FLO 15 SE FAY 25 N OAJ 15 N HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM ECNTRL NEB EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. OTHER STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN SD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING WWD INTO CNTRL NEB. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUSTAIN THE EXISTING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS AND LOCAL VARIATION IN INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN MANY MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEWD PARALLELING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS ERN NEB...SERN SD AND SRN MN. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE WITH DEVELOPING A LARGE MCS ACROSS ERN SD...NW IA AND SRN MN...MOVING IT ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS PROJECTED MCS PATH SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SERN CO TO ERN NM. THIS SHORTWAVE IS INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM WEST TX TO CNTRL KS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS WCNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING BEFORE INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MOVES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA SLOWLY NWWD TOWARD THE SRN NC COAST TONIGHT KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF OPHELIA ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS SHOW STRONG ELY FLOW WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 04:46:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 23:46:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509130604.j8D643O9008150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130601 SWODY1 SPC AC 130559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE APN 50 N LAF 30 NE SLO 55 WNW CGI 40 SE SGF 10 NE TUL 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 10 SSW DDC CNK 40 W DSM 15 NW ALO 20 WNW CWA 65 ENE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CRE 30 NW ILM 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 30 WSW CVS TAD 55 SSE U24 25 SSW SUN 55 ESE LVM 20 ENE AIA 15 NW BBW 25 W ATY 15 NW BRD 70 E ELO ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 15 WNW BWG 45 NE TXK 40 NNE GGG 10 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 15 S SOP 25 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...OZARK PLATEAU...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY SPREADING WIDESPREAD ASCENT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN NEB...NWRN IA AND NRN WI. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM THE UPPER-TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND STORM COVERAGE REMAINS SCATTERED. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LIFT PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN EARLY INITIATION WITH STORMS LINING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD FAVOR A WIDESPREAD MULTICELL THREAT WITH BOW ECHOES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE DOMINATE MODE OF SEVERE. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7.0 C/KM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL WILL BE ISOLATED. THE BEST LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN ERN KS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT STEEPER. THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPING A COMPLEX LINEAR MCS STRUCTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS THE MCS MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND OZARK REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTS THE REGION TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...A LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS OK AND NCNTRL TX COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CREATE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LOCATED IN WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS (20 TO 30 DEGREES) SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NEAR THE NC COAST BY TONIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF OPHELIA TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT SUGGESTING THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST TONIGHT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND EMBEDDED IN THE INNER RAINBANDS. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 11:34:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 06:34:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509131252.j8DCqZ7e013998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131249 SWODY1 SPC AC 131247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE APN 20 SSW SBN 15 ESE MTO 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 35 ENE DDC 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 15 NNE ALO 15 ESE CWA 65 ENE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRE 35 SE FAY 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 40 NNE CNM 20 NNW TCC 15 W RTN 25 NE CDC 60 SE BAM 45 NNW OWY 50 S 27U 35 SSE LVM CPR 45 WNW LBF 15 WNW BUB 25 NNW RWF 45 E DLH ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 15 WNW BWG 15 WSW PBF 45 ESE SHV 15 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI 15 NNE CAE 20 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CAROLINA CST... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED THE NRN PLNS YESTERDAY WILL PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS MANITOBA TO YIELD A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DEPARTURE OF NRN PLNS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE SRN BRANCH JET TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD E INTO THE SRN PLNS. FARTHER E...SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT PROGRESSION OF CNTRL NOAM TROUGH IS FINALLY SHUNTING UPR OH VLY RIDGE E INTO THE N ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE T.S. "OPHELIA" TO TURN MORE N TOWARD THE NC CST. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY TODAY...WHILE SRN PART SETTLES SSE INTO THE SRN PLNS. ...CNTRL PLNS TO MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SRN BRANCH JET BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ATTM OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS. DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MS VLY THIS PERIOD AS THE SRN JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ENEWD. AT THE SAME TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TX/OK NEWD INTO ERN KS/MO/SE IA AND IL...WHERE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON MUCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 2000 J/KG IN SE IA/NRN IL TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN SE KS AND MO. BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW PRESENT IN ERN KS/NW MO AND SW IA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE INFLUX IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER TODAY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING/CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW. WITH DEEP WSWLY SHEAR OF 40 KTS ORIENTED AT A CONSIDERABLE ANGLE TO THE BAND OF CONVECTION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ACTIVITY TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE ENE ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF ERN KS/MO AND ERN IA...WHERE EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT E OF THE EXISTING ACTIVITY. THESE COULD POSE A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT E/NE INTO IL/SRN WI AND WRN/NRN LWR MI. ...SRN PLNS... SWRN END OF KS CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD TEND TO BACK-BUILD SWD AND WWD INTO RATHER RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS CAP WEAKENS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET...SETUP EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IN SRN KS/NRN OK. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS OK/AR. ...CSTL CAROLINAS... T.S. "OPHELIA" EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW TODAY...BEFORE TURNING MORE N BY TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES E INTO SRN NEW ENG. WIND FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF MINI SUPERCELLS IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT CSTL NC FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO THE SC BORDER ...PER AREA VWPS SHOWING ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. WIND PROFILES SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. CESSATION OF LOW LEVEL COOL/DRY ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD ERN NC...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S. WARM CORE NATURE OF OPHELIA LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...EVEN ON FRINGE OF STORM CIRCULATION AND DURING MAX HEATING. BUT AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN MORE NWD LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OF A MORE TROPICAL ORIGIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD WWD ON N SIDE OF CIRCULATION...POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MINI SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR ERN/SRN NC AND PERHAPS FAR NE SC. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 14:41:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 09:41:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509131559.j8DFxFBH014362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131554 SWODY1 SPC AC 131552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 10 W OAJ 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE APN 35 SSE CGX 25 SSW MTO 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 35 ENE DDC 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 30 WNW LSE 30 WNW AUW 65 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MTC 30 WNW LUK 50 ESE BWG 40 NNW MSL 25 NW GWO 45 ESE SHV 25 W 7R4 ...CONT... 25 SE ELP 30 S ROW TCC 35 S RTN 55 NE 4SL 25 NE CDC 60 SE BAM 25 NNW OWY 65 SW 27U 50 ESE LVM CPR 35 WSW SNY 40 NE MCK 15 ESE RWF 40 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI 20 S GSO 15 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER COASTAL NC... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST AHEAD OF IT...WILL REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA TODAY. ...NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER NWRN MO WITH SEPARATE AREA OF ELEVATED STORMS OVER NERN NEB AT 15Z. THIS SECOND AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD TOWARD IA THIS MORNING. MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO WI WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALLOWING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS AIR MASS...THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NWD OUT OF MO ATTM SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT INTO IA AND FAR SERN MN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE AND SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SMALL BOW SEGMENTS BECOME ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT...WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. ...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE TO BACK-BUILD/REDEVELOP INTO ERN KS AND NWRN MO THIS MORNING...LIKELY HAMPERING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER WITH STRONG HEATING WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE EAST OF THESE STORMS...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED AND SPREAD EWD OVER MUCH OF MO THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. CONTINUED HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN CAP AND SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN TX...WRN/NRN OK AND CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY WITH RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-45 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR BY 21-23Z. THEREFORE...STORMS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE EVOLVING INTO CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE AS ONE OR MORE MCSS AND CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ALONG NOSE OF STRONG WLY SRN STREAM JET SPREADING EWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...COASTAL NC... T.S. OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT NWWD THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NLY THROUGH LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DEVELOPS EWD. THIS WILL PLACE SRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE NC COAST WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE REGIME FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 18:52:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 13:52:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509132010.j8DKAC4p009237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132007 SWODY1 SPC AC 132006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ANJ MTW DNV 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS AMA P28 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 15 NNE RST 55 NE EAU 65 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ELP 30 S ROW TCC 30 WSW CAO 15 SSE ALS 25 S CDC 30 NNE ELY 25 NNW OWY 65 SW 27U 50 ESE LVM 35 SSW BFF 55 ESE LIC 55 NNW GCK 15 ESE RWF 40 N CMX ...CONT... 40 SE OSC 30 WNW IND 20 N OWB 25 E DYR 25 NW GWO 25 NW ESF 25 W 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CHS 20 W DAN 15 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWWD ACROSS CA. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...BROAD PLUME OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM 4 CORNERS TO GREAT LAKES. SFC COLD FRONT -- MODULATED ACROSS IA BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS -- IS ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS SERN MN TO FRONTAL-WAVE LOW BETWEEN SLN-EMP. FRONT THEN EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND OVER E-CENTRAL NM. EXPECT FRONT TO DECELERATE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD ACROSS SERN NM AND SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX...AS POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO LEE-SIDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS FRONT INVOF E-CENTRAL KS LOW...AND EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS SERN KS THEN NEWD OVER WRN MO. DRYLINE -- FROM NEAR PVW SSWWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN NM -- SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY RETREAT WWD IN SOME AREAS. ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... LARGE MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD FROM IA ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MN AND WI. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS OVER MS VALLEY AND SRN WI WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. REF SPC WW 781...782...AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILED NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/ERN MO...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN IL...BUT MAY STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... FARTHER W ACROSS WRN MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK...SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS INCREASING INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL-WAVE LOW. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SOME VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 90S AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY WILL BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED FROM LOW EWD INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 AND WWS 783/784 FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO. CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE AND INTENSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY BACKBUILDING IN AT LEAST BROKEN FORM SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN OK. WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP INVOF DECELERATING COLD FRONT SWWD INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH TCU AND NASCENT CB ALREADY APPARENT FROM LBB AREA NEWD TOWARD SHAMROCK TX. DRYLINE SW OF LBB SHOULD MARK SWRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS REGION INITIALLY IS WEAK BECAUSE OF ONLY 15-20 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS AND SSWLY-WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS FLOW ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONT BACKS DUE TO ISALLOBARIC FORCING FROM NM LEE CYCLOGENESIS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR...SUPPORTED BY WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. ...COASTAL NC... AS TS OPHELIA APCHS COASTLINE AND FAVORABLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SLOWLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN AND SHORELINES...DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS AND MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG OUTER FRINGES OF TS OPHELIA CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...DIABATICALLY AIDED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY HAS PEAKED ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK OUTSIDE OF DENSE INNER BAND TO SUPPORT MUCH DISCRETE/CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES BUT DROP CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 23:43:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 18:43:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509140101.j8E11DxZ029081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140058 SWODY1 SPC AC 140057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DTW 30 ESE BWG 25 SW BNA 25 S MKL 30 W MEM PBF 40 SW MLU 30 W 7R4 60 SW 7R4 90 SE GLS 110 SE PSX 15 ESE BRO 60 WNW MFE LRD 35 WNW DRT 30 SSW P07 90 SSW P07 60 SW MRF 40 W MRF 70 WNW MRF 35 SE CNM 50 SE CVS 40 W AMA 20 W CAO 55 S GUC 20 SE GJT 10 SW CAG 20 SSW LAR 50 WNW AKO 40 W GLD 35 SW HLC 20 SW CNK 40 N FNB 30 SW LSE 40 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ECG 60 E ECG 55 ESE HSE 125 SSE HSE 140 SE ILM 100 SSE ILM 240 ENE DAB 90 ENE DAB 15 ESE SSI 20 NNE AGS 25 NE CLT 45 NNW RWI 20 NE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A WELL-FOCUSED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NWD THROUGH SWRN WI. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING NEWD JUST BEHIND THE LINE. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE (40 TO 50 KT) WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH ERN IA AND NW MO. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW MORE STORMS THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...OZARK PLATEAU/SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH SKIRTING THE REGION TO THE NORTH. A LARGE STORM CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS SE KS AND WRN MO JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE KS. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN OK AND WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 35 TO 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF OK AND KS WITH LESSENING SHEAR VALUES ACROSS WEST TX. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS WEST TX INTO WRN OK AND SERN KS. THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO WHERE THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS THE GREATEST. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SRN MO AND ERN OK. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CAROLINAS... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE NNEWD AND SKIRT THE NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS FAR SRN NC AND ERN SC. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...THE INNER RAINBANDS WILL ALSO MOVE INLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 23:58:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 18:58:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509140115.j8E1Fo7s003973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140112 SWODY1 SPC AC 140111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE APN LAN 40 SSE SBN 15 WSW SLO 30 W UNO 25 SSW MKO 50 SW SPS 65 NNW ABI 50 SSW CDS 10 WSW CDS 50 E GAG 25 E ICT 40 S P35 30 SE CID 35 NNE MSN 20 NW ESC 55 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 35 SE CNM 50 SE CVS 40 W AMA 20 W CAO 55 S GUC 20 SE GJT 10 SW CAG 20 SSW LAR 50 WNW AKO 40 W GLD 35 SW HLC 20 SW CNK 40 N FNB 30 SW LSE 40 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 25 SW MLU 30 S PBF 30 ENE PBF 45 WSW MEM 10 ENE MEM 40 ESE MKL 15 S BNA 40 SE BWG 15 S LUK 45 SSE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SSI 20 NNE AGS 40 ENE CLT 40 N RWI 20 NNE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A WELL-FOCUSED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NWD THROUGH SWRN WI. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING NEWD JUST BEHIND THE LINE. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE (40 TO 50 KT) WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH ERN IA AND NW MO. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW MORE STORMS THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...OZARK PLATEAU/SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH SKIRTING THE REGION TO THE NORTH. A LARGE STORM CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS SE KS AND WRN MO JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE KS. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN OK AND WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 35 TO 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF OK AND KS WITH LESSENING SHEAR VALUES ACROSS WEST TX. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS WEST TX INTO WRN OK AND SERN KS. THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO WHERE THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS THE GREATEST. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SRN MO AND ERN OK. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CAROLINAS... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE NNEWD AND SKIRT THE NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS FAR SRN NC AND ERN SC. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...THE INNER RAINBANDS WILL ALSO MOVE INLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 04:46:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 23:46:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509140604.j8E643Zw016049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140602 SWODY1 SPC AC 140600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S SPS 50 N ABI 65 NW ABI 45 ESE LBB 35 E PVW 40 NW CDS 40 W CSM 30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 35 WSW DUA 40 S SPS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PRX 30 SSW ABI 25 SSE BGS 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 SE DHT 50 SSW LBL 45 NNE GAG 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 35 N MRF 30 S HOB 45 S CVS 10 SE LVS 50 E DRO 30 NE CEZ 25 SE CNY 25 WNW GJT 35 WNW CAG 45 NNE LAR 40 ESE CDR 25 NNE MHN 30 ESE MHN 20 S LBF 35 SSE MCK HLC RSL 20 W EMP 30 SW SZL 35 SE UIN 15 NNW BMI 20 WNW MKG 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 30 SE HUL 30 E EKN 25 WNW HSS RMG TCL 30 NW JAN 40 E SHV 20 NNE TYR 30 SSE SEP 50 SSW BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SW DESERTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH OK AND NRN AR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...OK AND NRN AR DURING THE DAY POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVER OK AND AR SHOULD DRIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SFC HEATING OVER NW TX AND WRN OK. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND ACROSS NRN TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A STRONGLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES VARYING FROM 40 KT OVER ERN OK TO 65 KT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS WILL CREATE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL OK WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED AND SUPERCELLS MODIFY THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...AR OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO BECOME MARGINAL. ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS KY AND WRN TN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WRN TN...NRN MS AND NW AL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S F. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 30 TO 35 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE MULTICELLS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ...ERN NC... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE NNEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC TODAY. RAINBAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NC ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NC TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT MAY BECOME MARGINAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE HURRICANE RAINBANDS GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NC. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 04:58:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 23:58:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509140616.j8E6GABe019690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140613 SWODY1 SPC AC 140612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S SPS 50 N ABI 65 NW ABI 45 ESE LBB 35 E PVW 40 NW CDS 40 W CSM 30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 35 WSW DUA 40 S SPS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PRX 30 SSW ABI 25 SSE BGS 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 SE DHT 50 SSW LBL 45 NNE GAG 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUL 30 E EKN 25 WNW HSS RMG TCL 30 NW JAN 40 E SHV 20 NNE TYR 30 SSE SEP 50 SSW BWD DRT ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 35 N MRF 30 S HOB 45 S CVS 10 SE LVS 50 E DRO 30 NE CEZ 25 SE CNY 25 WNW GJT 35 WNW CAG 45 NNE LAR 40 ESE CDR 25 NNE MHN 30 ESE MHN 20 S LBF 35 SSE MCK HLC RSL 20 W EMP 30 SW SZL 35 SE UIN 15 NNW BMI 20 WNW MKG 35 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHS 15 W GSB 25 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS... CORRECTED TO FLIP ARROW ON 5 % LINE ON THE WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SW DESERTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH OK AND NRN AR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...OK AND NRN AR DURING THE DAY POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVER OK AND AR SHOULD DRIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SFC HEATING OVER NW TX AND WRN OK. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND ACROSS NRN TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A STRONGLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES VARYING FROM 40 KT OVER ERN OK TO 65 KT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS WILL CREATE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL OK WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED AND SUPERCELLS MODIFY THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...AR OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO BECOME MARGINAL. ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS KY AND WRN TN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WRN TN...NRN MS AND NW AL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S F. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 30 TO 35 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE MULTICELLS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ...ERN NC... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE NNEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC TODAY. RAINBAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NC ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NC TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT MAY BECOME MARGINAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE HURRICANE RAINBANDS GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NC. ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 11:38:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 06:38:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509141256.j8ECuQoV022328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141253 SWODY1 SPC AC 141252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MWL 25 NNE ABI 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 15 NNE LBB 40 ESE AMA 45 WNW CSM 30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 45 NNW DAL 40 WNW MWL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PRX 15 NE BWD 30 WNW SJT 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 WNW TCC 15 SE RTN 45 SSW LAA 35 SE LBL 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 50 SE GDP 30 ENE CNM 45 ENE ROW 15 SSW LVS 35 SE DRO 10 NW 4BL 10 S CNY 25 WNW GJT 10 SSE CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 20 SE PIR 45 NNW ABR 25 W FAR 40 E FAR 20 SW AXN 25 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB 30 NE MCK 30 NW HLC 15 NE RSL 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 30 NW STL 10 SSE MMO 30 NNE MKG 15 NE APN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 30 NE POU 15 NW HSS 20 NW RMG TCL 25 WNW MEI 10 SW HEZ 35 N LFK 35 NNE ACT 35 SW BWD 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 20 NNW FAY 30 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TEXAS AND SRN/CNTRL OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN/OH VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD AS EXISTING UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED S INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ACTIVE SRN BRANCH JET WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A PRIME FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM ATTM EXTENDS FROM NRN KS SWD INTO NW TX. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT UPSTREAM OVER WRN AZ. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL NM BY THIS EVENING AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM MI TO SE MO TO THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE LWR OH/MID MS VLY TODAY. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE LBB AREA ENE INTO CNTRL OK. ...SRN PLNS TO SRN OZARKS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF OK AND KS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED E/NE ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE COLD FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL STORM OUTFLOW. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/ERN OK AND CNTRL/SRN AR. AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR... INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...AND MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/ WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING NM IMPULSE. FARTHER W...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN ZONE OF SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW N OF SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONT IN NW TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. INITIATION IN THIS REGION MAY AT FIRST BE TIED TO SURFACE HEATING ...BUT IN TIME WILL BE ASSISTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM TROUGH. COMBINATION OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE OF 3000 TO POSSIBLY 4000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 500 MB WSWLY FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE FROM 30-35 KTS TO AROUND 50 KTS...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. IN ADDITION...ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF STALLED BOUNDARIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE. WITH TIME...STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD IN MDT RISK AREA IN RESPONSE TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E/SE ALONG THE RED RIVER VLY...AND WILL EXTEND A THREAT FOR SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ...MID MS/LWR OH/TN VLYS... AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL GRAZE PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR TN VLYS TODAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GRT LKS. COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS REGION WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SRN MO TO SRN IND...AND S/E OF OLD STORM OUTFLOW FROM WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS AND NW AL. MUCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 IN CLOUDIER SPOTS TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ELSEWHERE. PROXIMITY OF SRN BRANCH JET WILL MAINTAIN 30-35 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR ACROSS REGION. WHILE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BE WEAK... MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPR SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...ERN NC... HRCN OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NWD ATTM AS UPR RIDGE TO ITS N CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NE LATER TODAY IN AGREEMENT WITH TPC AND MODEL FORECASTS. WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE TO MINI SUPERCELLS ARE ALREADY PRESENT ALONG THE SRN NC CST...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR ABOVE 50 KTS. FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD NWD ALONG THE CST TO THE VA CAPES BY TONIGHT. WARM CORE NATURE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATED OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS. BUT FRICTIONALLY-INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM W OF ECG TO NEAR ILM LIKELY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND MAY SERVE AS A SOURCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED UPLIFT AS MODEST SURFACE HEATING OCCURS OVER ERN AND NE NC TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS...AND THUS ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR WHERE CONFLUENCE BANDS INTERSECT THE TROUGH. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 13:24:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 08:24:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509141442.j8EEgEAs029781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141437 SWODY1 SPC AC 141436 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MWL 25 NNE ABI 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 15 NNE LBB 40 ESE AMA 45 WNW CSM 30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA 45 NNW DAL 40 WNW MWL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PRX 15 NE BWD 30 WNW SJT 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 WNW TCC 15 SE RTN 45 SSW LAA 35 SE LBL 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 50 SE GDP 30 ENE CNM 45 ENE ROW 15 SSW LVS 35 SE DRO 10 NW 4BL 10 S CNY 25 WNW GJT 10 SSE CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 20 SE PIR 45 NNW ABR 25 W FAR 40 E FAR 20 SW AXN 25 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB 30 NE MCK 30 NW HLC 15 NE RSL 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 30 NW STL 10 SSE MMO 30 NNE MKG 15 NE APN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 30 NE POU 15 NW HSS 20 NW RMG TCL 25 WNW MEI 10 SW HEZ 35 N LFK 35 NNE ACT 35 SW BWD 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 20 NNW FAY 30 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TEXAS AND SRN/CNTRL OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN/OH VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC... CORRECTED TO ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN COASTAL NC ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD AS EXISTING UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED S INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ACTIVE SRN BRANCH JET WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A PRIME FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM ATTM EXTENDS FROM NRN KS SWD INTO NW TX. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT UPSTREAM OVER WRN AZ. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL NM BY THIS EVENING AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM MI TO SE MO TO THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE LWR OH/MID MS VLY TODAY. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE LBB AREA ENE INTO CNTRL OK. ...SRN PLNS TO SRN OZARKS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF OK AND KS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED E/NE ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE COLD FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL STORM OUTFLOW. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/ERN OK AND CNTRL/SRN AR. AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR... INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...AND MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/ WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING NM IMPULSE. FARTHER W...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN ZONE OF SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW N OF SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONT IN NW TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. INITIATION IN THIS REGION MAY AT FIRST BE TIED TO SURFACE HEATING ...BUT IN TIME WILL BE ASSISTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM TROUGH. COMBINATION OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE OF 3000 TO POSSIBLY 4000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 500 MB WSWLY FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE FROM 30-35 KTS TO AROUND 50 KTS...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. IN ADDITION...ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF STALLED BOUNDARIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE. WITH TIME...STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD IN MDT RISK AREA IN RESPONSE TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E/SE ALONG THE RED RIVER VLY...AND WILL EXTEND A THREAT FOR SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ...MID MS/LWR OH/TN VLYS... AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL GRAZE PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR TN VLYS TODAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GRT LKS. COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS REGION WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SRN MO TO SRN IND...AND S/E OF OLD STORM OUTFLOW FROM WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS AND NW AL. MUCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 IN CLOUDIER SPOTS TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ELSEWHERE. PROXIMITY OF SRN BRANCH JET WILL MAINTAIN 30-35 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR ACROSS REGION. WHILE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BE WEAK... MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPR SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...ERN NC... HRCN OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NWD ATTM AS UPR RIDGE TO ITS N CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NE LATER TODAY IN AGREEMENT WITH TPC AND MODEL FORECASTS. WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE TO MINI SUPERCELLS ARE ALREADY PRESENT ALONG THE SRN NC CST...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR ABOVE 50 KTS. FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD NWD ALONG THE CST TO THE VA CAPES BY TONIGHT. WARM CORE NATURE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATED OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS. BUT FRICTIONALLY-INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM W OF ECG TO NEAR ILM LIKELY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND MAY SERVE AS A SOURCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED UPLIFT AS MODEST SURFACE HEATING OCCURS OVER ERN AND NE NC TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS...AND THUS ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR WHERE CONFLUENCE BANDS INTERSECT THE TROUGH. ..CORFIDI.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 15:24:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 10:24:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509141642.j8EGg5XM025636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141639 SWODY1 SPC AC 141638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MWL 25 NNE ABI 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 10 NE LBB 40 NE PVW 45 NNE CDS 45 E CSM 20 S OKC 15 WNW ADM 35 N MWL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE PRX 15 NE BWD 30 WNW SJT 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 WNW TCC 15 SE RTN 45 SSW LAA 35 SE LBL 15 E PNC 30 NE UNO 25 SE MDH 30 E OWB 55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 20 WNW GWO 40 SSE HOT 15 ENE PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 15 ESE SOP 30 SE EKN 45 WSW EKN 30 WNW HSS 20 NNE 0A8 15 NW LUL 30 WNW POE 25 ENE TPL 20 SW JCT 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 30 SSE GDP 25 N CNM 50 N ROW 20 SSE ABQ 15 E FMN 10 NW 4BL 10 S CNY 25 WNW GJT 10 SSE CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 10 SSW PIR 60 NE MBG 30 NNW JMS 35 E DVL 30 NE GFK 20 NNW BJI 35 SE BJI 25 NE AXN 30 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB 30 NE MCK 30 NW HLC 15 NE RSL 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 10 SSW ALN 35 SE CGX 20 N GRR 10 E OSC ...CONT... 35 SSE HUL 20 ENE BDL 35 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND SOUTHWESTERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL NC... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRECEDE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM OH INTO ERN KY/ERN TN AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN AL/NRN MS/CENTRAL AR/NWRN TX. ERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING...WITH SRN PLAINS PORTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD AXIS OF MID 60S DEW POINTS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT...WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SFC DEW PTS AOA 70F/ PERSISTING WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ALOFT SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID SOUTH REGIONS TODAY...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...WRN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH... AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THOUGH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT CAP SUGGEST THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING. 15Z SOUNDING FROM REECE/TX INDICATES CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S MAY BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN LARGE CLOUD-FREE AREA WITHIN PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED BETWEEN 3-5 PM OVER NWRN TX/SRN OK/NRN TX. MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK. OTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER WRN PORTION OF SLGT RISK /ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION/ WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...THOUGH STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING...THOUGH STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES/FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS. SUPERCELLS OVER WRN TX AND SRN OK/NRN TX MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WITH CELLS PROPAGATING ALONG SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARLY ALIGNED WITH EXPECTED ELY STORM MOTIONS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OK/NRN TX AND SPREAD INTO FAR SRN MO/AR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AFTER 05Z. ...COASTAL NC... PRESENCE OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH BANDS ROTATING AROUND OPHELIA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE SMALL SLGT RISK AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITHIN FAVORED N-NE QUADRANT OF OPHELIA. ...OH RIVER VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES... APPEARS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL IL. LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 18:54:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 13:54:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509142011.j8EKBmHW032702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142009 SWODY1 SPC AC 142007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW ADM 40 SW SPS 65 S CDS 50 E LBB 40 E PVW 35 WNW CDS 30 WNW LTS 25 N FSI 45 SE OKC ADM 45 SSW ADM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL ABI 35 NE P07 MRF 50 ENE HOB AMA 30 WSW P28 40 ESE P28 JLN 30 NE UNO 25 SE MDH CKV BNA MSL CBM 30 S GWO 35 SSE TXK DAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE EWN 20 ENE RWI 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 30 SW HOB 55 N HOB CVS 10 SE LVS 15 E FMN 10 NW 4BL 30 E 4HV 45 NE U28 CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 10 SSW PIR 60 NE MBG 30 NNW JMS 35 E DVL 30 NE GFK 20 NNW BJI 35 SE BJI 25 NE AXN 30 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB GLD 55 E LAA 50 S HLC 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 10 SSW ALN SBN MBS 10 E OSC ...CONT... 35 SSE HUL 20 ENE BDL 35 SSW GON ...CONT... 15 ENE CRE SOP SHD 15 SSW PIT JKL 20 NNE 0A8 15 NW LUL 30 WNW POE 25 ENE TPL 20 SW JCT 40 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...NW TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SW TX TO WRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED GENERALLY BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC COST TO GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CO AND NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ATOP CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS DEEPEN FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER FLOYD COUNTY TX...BASED ON W TX MESONET OBS. ...SRN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY... OVER CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ON BOTH SIDES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER WRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 FOR NEAR TERM INFORMATION. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APCHG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGHOUT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM VICINITY SFC LOW EWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF NW TX AND SRN OK. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING..WITH TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT. MOST FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BETWEEN NW TX AND SWRN AR. FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR REGION...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING MOVING GENERALLY EWD FROM ARKLATEX REGION ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT AFTER DARK. MCS RELATED TO NW TX CONVECTION ALSO MAY AFFECT THIS REGION LATE IN PERIOD WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. FARTHER SW ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX...ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...MORE SLY SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAN OVER RED RIVER REGION...BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING HAIL/GUST POTENTIAL. ...ERN NC -- OPHELIA TORNADO THREAT... SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT HEIGHTENED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RISK AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS SMALL SECTOR OF NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NC HAS HEATED DIABATICALLY ENOUGH TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. DISCRETE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ARE OBSERVED ATTM WITH ONE SPIRAL CONVERGENCE BAND SW-W OF HSE..ACROSS ALBEMARLE SOUND AND INLAND...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO VA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. GRADUAL NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN NERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATE TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION REGARDING THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 20:48:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 15:48:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509142205.j8EM5jLP025847@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142159 SWODY1 SPC AC 142158 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 142200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW ADM 40 SW SPS 65 S CDS 50 E LBB 40 E PVW 35 WNW CDS 30 WNW LTS 25 N FSI 45 SE OKC ADM 45 SSW ADM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL ABI 35 NE P07 MRF 50 ENE HOB AMA 30 WSW P28 40 ESE P28 JLN 30 NE UNO 25 SE MDH CKV BNA MSL CBM 30 S GWO 35 SSE TXK DAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE EWN 20 ENE RWI 25 SE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LBL 35 NE CAO 35 SE TAD TAD 35 SW PUB 20 NW PUB 25 SW LIC 25 NE LIC 45 WNW GLD 40 SSW MCK 35 SSW HLC 40 N DDC 15 NW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE HUL 20 ENE BDL 35 SSW GON ...CONT... 15 ENE CRE SOP SHD 15 SSW PIT JKL 20 NNE 0A8 15 NW LUL 30 WNW POE 25 ENE TPL 20 SW JCT 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 30 SW HOB 55 N HOB CVS 10 SE LVS 15 E FMN 10 NW 4BL 30 E 4HV 45 NE U28 CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 10 SSW PIR 60 NE MBG 30 NNW JMS 35 E DVL 30 NE GFK 20 NNW BJI 35 SE BJI 25 NE AXN 30 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB BBW 35 SW EAR 55 SSW HSI 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 10 SSW ALN SBN MBS 10 E OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...NW TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SW TX TO WRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO...WRN KS... AMENDED FOR SERN CO/WRN KS ...AMD AREA... SVR POTENTIAL INCREASING OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AMIDST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203 FOR DETAILS. ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED GENERALLY BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC COST TO GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CO AND NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ATOP CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS DEEPEN FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER FLOYD COUNTY TX...BASED ON W TX MESONET OBS. ...SRN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY... OVER CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ON BOTH SIDES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER WRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 FOR NEAR TERM INFORMATION. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APCHG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGHOUT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM VICINITY SFC LOW EWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF NW TX AND SRN OK. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING..WITH TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT. MOST FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BETWEEN NW TX AND SWRN AR. FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR REGION...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING MOVING GENERALLY EWD FROM ARKLATEX REGION ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT AFTER DARK. MCS RELATED TO NW TX CONVECTION ALSO MAY AFFECT THIS REGION LATE IN PERIOD WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. FARTHER SW ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX...ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...MORE SLY SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAN OVER RED RIVER REGION...BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING HAIL/GUST POTENTIAL. ...ERN NC -- OPHELIA TORNADO THREAT... SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT HEIGHTENED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RISK AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS SMALL SECTOR OF NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NC HAS HEATED DIABATICALLY ENOUGH TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. DISCRETE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ARE OBSERVED ATTM WITH ONE SPIRAL CONVERGENCE BAND SW-W OF HSE..ACROSS ALBEMARLE SOUND AND INLAND...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO VA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. GRADUAL NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN NERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATE TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION REGARDING THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 05:40:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 00:40:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509150540.j8F5eS0E028265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150538 SWODY1 SPC AC 150536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ADM FSM ARG 25 SW CKV HSV 15 ESE CBM 40 W JAN 45 SSW SHV TPL JCT 25 W SJT 65 WSW SPS 30 NNW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRE 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 25 SW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 NNE LFT 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 10 SSW P07 40 SSW MAF 20 S HOB 25 SW CVS 10 ENE TCC 20 E EHA 30 ENE DDC 30 E MKC 35 SE UIN 40 NNE LAF 30 NE AZO 40 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 25 E RWF 40 SE BKX 15 N MHE 20 SW ABR 45 SW JMS 40 ENE DIK 65 NNW MLS 55 SSW HVR 35 NNE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.... NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS SUGGEST PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN BOTH STREAMS WILL AMPLIFY TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNTIL LATTER FEATURE PROGRESSES CLOSER TO ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY...HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LWR OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY.... CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TODAY NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSOLATION FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FRONTAL WAVE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/ TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY SHEARED 30+ KT MEAN FLOW REGIME COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SEEM LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY THREATS...AND EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID/UPPER FORCING IS MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WEAK CAP MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SHORT LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SPARSE DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY TEND TO MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 13:01:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 08:01:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151301.j8FD14FS016300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151258 SWODY1 SPC AC 151257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ADM FSM ARG 25 SW CKV HSV 15 ESE CBM 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20 SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 NNW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 15 E CNM 25 ENE ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 25 NNE LTS 10 WNW PNC 30 SW SZL 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 20 W MKT 25 E BKX MBG 60 SW DIK 10 NE LVM 10 WNW HLN 95 NNE 3TH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE LWR MS/OH/TN VLYS...... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN RCKYS. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON ...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. ...OK/NE TX INTO LWR OH/TN VLYS.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN/CNTRL TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW NEAR CDS. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR SEP/MWL. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN NM/W TX... ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE ISOLATED. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 16:10:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 11:10:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151610.j8FGAWHK021698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151603 SWODY1 SPC AC 151602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1102 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ADM 10 NNE PGO 15 NNE JBR 35 W HOP 55 ESE BWG 20 WNW RMG 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20 SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 SSW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 15 W CNM 30 N ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 20 W FSI 20 SSW TUL 20 NNE SGF 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MCW SPW 20 SW FSD 35 WNW HON 55 S Y22 15 ESE BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF TX INTO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN RCKYS. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. ...OK/NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN/CNTRL TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW NEAR CDS. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR SEP/MWL. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN NM/W TX... ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE ISOLATED. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 16:31:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 11:31:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151631.j8FGVXkt007807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151625 SWODY1 SPC AC 151602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1102 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ADM 10 NNE PGO 15 NNE JBR 35 W HOP 55 ESE BWG 20 WNW RMG 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20 SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 SSW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 15 W CNM 30 N ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 20 W FSI 20 SSW TUL 20 NNE SGF 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MCW SPW 20 SW FSD 35 WNW HON 55 S Y22 15 ESE BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF TX INTO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN RCKYS. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. ...OK/NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN/CNTRL TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW NEAR CDS. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR SEP/MWL. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN NM/W TX... ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE ISOLATED. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 17:28:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 12:28:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151728.j8FHSgbG015067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151725 SWODY1 SPC AC 151657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1157 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ELP 35 SE ROW 45 E TCC 45 NNE EHA 20 NE IML 15 NE MHN 15 ESE MBG 35 W BIS 25 SSE SDY 15 NNE BIL 20 WNW MQM 20 SE BOI 80 NNW WMC 45 S 4LW 10 E MHS 35 SSE MFR 55 N LMT 60 SE RDM 40 WSW BKE 30 SW LWS 25 E PUW 35 NNE 3TH 25 S CTB 25 WSW HVR 40 WNW GGW 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 90 NW CMX 30 SSE BRD 30 NNW SUX 20 N MHK 30 SE ICT 25 ESE END 20 SSW OKC 30 SW ADM 35 SW PRX 30 NW ELD 40 WSW UOX 25 SSE CKV 30 NNE EVV 15 SSW IND 40 NE DAY 40 W CLE 25 WSW BUF 35 WNW SYR 20 W POU 20 SSE PVD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OH VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO WRN NY/PA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND BE LOCATED FROM PA TO THE NCNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATOP DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS... LATEST GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED TO THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO LATEST GFS WHICH INDICATES A MORE NWD TRACK AND SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE IMPULSE. THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE BEST GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS INVOF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE FROM OH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH FORCING NEAR FRONT AND LOW...SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE FROM STRONGER CELLS/LINES AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. PRESENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. SOME PARTS OF THE REGION COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS FORECAST SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...SRN APPALACHIANS TO NRN GULF COAST/NERN TX... DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENTLY IN LATEST GUIDANCE COMPARED TO TROUGH/LOW FARTHER NORTH. MIXING AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM NC SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE A FEW MULTICELLULAR OR PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ANY THREAT SHOULD DECLINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN AFTER DARK. ...CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS... LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS MID LEVEL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO HIGH PLAINS. IN TURN...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE TX PNHDL TO THE DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR STORM INITIATION CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COULD ENHANCE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM ND TO MN. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ACROSS THE REGION PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IN THIS OUTLOOK. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 17:35:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 12:35:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151735.j8FHZT2G019124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151731 SWODY1 SPC AC 151602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1102 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ADM 10 NNE PGO 15 NNE JBR 35 W HOP 55 ESE BWG 20 WNW RMG 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20 SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 SSW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 15 W CNM 30 N ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 20 W FSI 20 SSW TUL 20 NNE SGF 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MCW SPW 20 SW FSD 35 WNW HON 55 S Y22 15 ESE BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF TX INTO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN RCKYS. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. ...OK/NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN/CNTRL TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW NEAR CDS. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR SEP/MWL. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN NM/W TX... ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE ISOLATED. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 19:47:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 14:47:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509151947.j8FJlG1s021414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151945 SWODY1 SPC AC 151944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0244 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SPS 40 SSE PGO 45 ESE PGO 40 W UOX 20 ENE DYR 45 WSW LOZ 10 NW RMG 40 W JAN 45 SE GGG 10 N TPL 45 SSW BWD 10 SW SJT 35 W ABI 35 SSE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 35 NW INK 50 NNW HOB 55 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 15 NW FSI 35 NW PGO 40 WSW ARG 10 NW SLO 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BRL 25 W UIN 55 SSW IRK 35 NNE MKC 40 WSW LWD 35 SW OTM 10 WNW BRL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY... ...NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...CNTRL/NE TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR CNTRL/NE TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING... BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL/NE TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR... SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 20:10:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 15:10:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509152010.j8FKADkV006395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152007 SWODY1 SPC AC 151944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0244 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SPS 40 SSE PGO 45 ESE PGO 40 W UOX 20 ENE DYR 45 WSW LOZ 10 NW RMG 40 W JAN 45 SE GGG 10 N TPL 45 SSW BWD 10 SW SJT 35 W ABI 35 SSE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 40 SSW MAF 35 NW INK 50 NNW HOB 55 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 15 NW FSI 35 NW PGO 40 WSW ARG 10 NW SLO 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU 20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10 WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BRL 25 W UIN 55 SSW IRK 35 NNE MKC 40 WSW LWD 35 SW OTM 10 WNW BRL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY... ...NE TX INTO LWR TN VLY.... COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY E/NE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. ...CNTRL/NE TX... DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM FOR CNTRL/NE TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE. BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING... BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT... COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL/NE TX TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR... SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS. ...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST... PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST TODAY. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 16 00:39:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 19:39:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509160039.j8G0dTq1007329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160037 SWODY1 SPC AC 160035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWD 20 SSW FTW 45 WNW TYR 10 ESE TYR 30 NW LFK CLL 15 SW AUS 35 W JCT 30 ENE SJT 25 WNW BWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP LRD ...CONT... 15 S P07 MAF 35 SE LBB ADM FYV UMN 30 SE SZL SPI MMO 25 NW AZO 55 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 NE ROC ALB CON 40 SE AUG ...CONT... 20 SE SBY NHK LYH HKY AND LGC LUL 15 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JMS FAR BRD 15 ENE EAU MCW SUX 9V9 BIS JMS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TEXAS.... EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... IN RESPONSE TO PHASING IMPULSES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL STREAM. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LATTER FEATURE IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS HAS BEEN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE...EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...HAS ALSO BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING TODAY OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...WHERE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN WEAK. ...TEXAS... TEMPERATURES IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE SLOW TO COOL BELOW 90F THIS EVENING. WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ONGOING IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD MAINTAIN RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO. VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AND...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS STILL POSSIBLE...BEFORE THREAT ENDS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... NEAR CREST OF AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...DOWNSTREAM OF EVOLVING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BECOME FOCUSED FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE FORCING MAY BE ENHANCED ON NOSE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ..KERR.. 09/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 05:47:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 00:47:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509190546.j8J5khSa014300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190544 SWODY1 SPC AC 190543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ERI 30 SE MFD 30 SSW LUK 10 WSW OWB 25 NNW POF 10 N UMN 45 N JLN 55 N SZL 10 SW MSN 20 NE TVC 60 E ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 70 N AYS 40 NW AGS 10 ESE CLT 25 NNW RDU 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W PRB 20 WNW MER 40 SSE TVL 70 S NFL 35 SE TPH 40 SSE P38 15 SSE PGA 30 WSW 4SL 20 W LVS 40 ENE 4CR 40 NNW GDP 55 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 35 SSW ALB 15 ESE CXY 25 NNW SHD 10 ENE TRI 15 W CHA 35 ENE CBM 15 N GWO 35 S HOT 20 NW DUA 50 SSE CDS 10 WSW LBB 35 SW AMA 60 ENE AMA 50 E GAG 10 SW ICT 40 N STJ 55 WSW DSM 55 ESE SUX 25 WSW YKN 25 S 9V9 50 ENE PIR 50 S JMS 15 W IWD 10 NNE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS SWWD INTO THE OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF 50-60 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY MONDAY AFTN-NIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI LATE MORNING MONDAY TO NRN LWR MI MONDAY EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO BY EARLY TUESDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GRTLKS REGION WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER OH VLY. THE FRONT/BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCI FOR SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. ...CNTRL GRTLKS REGION SWWD INTO THE OZARKS... ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION MONDAY AFTN. THUS...TSTMS /LIKELY ELEVATED WITH ISOLD HAIL/ WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ACROSS LWR MI. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS LATE AFTN-EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EVOLVING INTO LINE SEGMENTS... SHOULD STORMS FORM. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON INSTABILITY CONCERNS AND COULD OFFER HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MO NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL AND IND. SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE PLUME OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY MID-AFTN...MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTN AND RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH STORMS LIKELY BUILDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND INTO THE INCREASING CAP ACROSS THE OZARKS. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL-IND AND BEGIN PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE MID-OH VLY OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE OH VLY AND MAY YIELD HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ...EXTREME SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS... OFFICIAL NHC/TPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RITA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE AND BE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE UPPER KEYS BY 12Z TUE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT EXTREME SRN FL/KEYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST/TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY SQUALLS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 09/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 12:51:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 07:51:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509191251.j8JCpPuA025523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191248 SWODY1 SPC AC 191247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ERI 25 SSE MFD 30 SSW LUK 25 E CGI 15 NNW UNO 15 SE JLN 35 SSE OJC 55 N SZL 10 SW MSN 30 N MBL 60 E ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 70 N AYS 40 NW AGS 10 ESE CLT 25 NNW RDU 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W PRB 20 WNW MER 40 SSE TVL 70 S NFL 35 SE TPH 40 SSE P38 15 SSE PGA 30 WSW 4SL 20 W LVS 40 ENE 4CR 40 NNW GDP 55 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 35 SSW ALB 15 ESE CXY 25 NNW SHD 10 ENE TRI 15 W CHA 35 ENE CBM 15 N GWO 35 S HOT 20 NW DUA 50 SSE CDS 10 WSW LBB 35 SW AMA 60 ENE AMA 50 E GAG 10 SW ICT 40 N STJ 55 WSW DSM 55 ESE SUX 25 N SUX 25 WSW FSD 30 SW ATY 45 S FAR 25 WNW RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO TO LOWER MI.... ...MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES... A BROAD NNW-SSE ORIENTED BELT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING ENEWD OVER IL/WI TOWARD INDIANA/MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION...THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AND THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN NE IA WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN WI TO NRN LOWER MI BY THIS EVENING...REACHING SW QUEBEC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN IA/WRN IL/MO THIS MORNING WILL ALSO SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS IL AND SRN WI BY MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD...REACHING SRN LOWER MI AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S /BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS IL/MO. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. REGARDLESS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER IN THE REGION OF WAA IMMEDIATELY NE THROUGH SE OF THE SURFACE LOW...COINCIDENT WITH THE ERN/NERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. ANY SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ...AZ/SRN CA... NWD ADVECTION OF L0W-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NW MEXICO TO AZ/SRN CA IS EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND THE CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NW GULF COAST. THE MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE NAM/GFS ARE 6-12 HOURS TOO FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO. ...S FL LATE TONIGHT... TROPICAL STORM RITA IS DEVELOPING INVOF THE SE BAHAMAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WWD THROUGH TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN JUST E/SE OF FL UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 00:48:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 19:48:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509200048.j8K0mcwe021791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200046 SWODY1 SPC AC 200045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE TBN 55 WNW TBN 20 SSE SZL 30 NE SZL 30 NW SPI 20 S SBN 35 SSW JXN 20 SSW ARB 30 SSE DTW 30 N MFD 20 WSW MFD 30 ENE DAY 45 S MIE MVN 35 SSE VIH 10 SSE TBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE LGB 25 SW DAG 60 ENE DAG 40 NE FLG 20 W ABQ 15 E 4CR 40 SW ROW 70 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK 10 SE RUT 10 WNW POU 40 NNW ILG 10 WNW SHD 20 WNW TYS 25 N MSL 30 WSW MEM 50 NNW LIT 15 NW FYV 30 W JLN 30 NNE CNU MKC 30 WNW IRK 25 W CGX 45 NW BEH 20 ENE MKG 25 SE TVC 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW FMY 30 SSE VRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LINEAR MCS THAT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NRN IL SWWD INTO NCNTRL MO. ANOTHER SMALLER MCS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IND ATTM. THE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS SHOWN BY RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE LINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH THE STORMS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL...SRN IND AND SW OH. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR AS SHOWN BY REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS DUE TO THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL JET MAX EXTENDING FROM NRN MO ENEWD INTO SRN MI. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME LESS STEEP IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...SFC DEWPOINTS OF 64-72 F COMBINED WITH A FAST EWD STORM MOTION WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINES. HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE LINES ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS KY AND SRN OH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE DECREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 05:57:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 00:57:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509200557.j8K5vNfA023542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200555 SWODY1 SPC AC 200553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 20 S FAY 15 SW SOP 25 SSE GSO 45 ESE LYH 30 SE BWI 10 ENE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMY 45 ENE FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CHS 35 SE AGS 30 S ATL 45 WSW 0A8 MEI 50 ESE MCB 30 SSW GPT ...CONT... 20 SSW LCH 30 NNW POE 50 N POE 30 WSW MLU 20 ESE ELD 10 NE ELD 25 N TXK 35 SW PGO 20 ESE MKO 40 SW UMN 10 ENE SGF 20 NE MDH 25 SSW DAY YNG 35 S ROC 30 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 S SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW UKI 20 ENE RBL 65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 30 N EVW 20 NNW VEL 45 NE U28 35 NE CNY 40 SE GUC 40 ENE ALS 25 SE LHX 50 SE GLD 20 ESE HLC 25 N CNK 35 NE CNK 35 NE MHK 30 ENE MHK 30 ESE MHK 35 ENE ICT 45 WNW PNC 60 ENE AMA 35 SW AMA 20 S TCC 45 N 4CR 10 NW ONM 35 WSW TCS 40 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL... ...MID-ATLANTIC/NC... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE US AS A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY POINT FOR THE STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS VA AND WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN 60S F COMBINED WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CREATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING STORMS WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. IT ALSO APPEARS THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM ALSO SUGGEST THE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA DURING THE EVENING...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. ANY MARGINAL THREAT SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS THE LINE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF VA AND NC. ...SRN FL... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM RITA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AND SKIRT THE SRN PART OF FL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE INNER RAINBANDS AFFECTING FAR SRN FL AND THE FL KEYS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN FL SHOW STRONG ELY FLOW ON THE NRN SIDE OF RITA WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT. IN ADDITION...MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN FL. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AS RITA MOVES AWAY FROM SRN FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CA/SRN NV... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS SRN CA AND SRN NV TODAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..BROYLES.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 12:57:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 07:57:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509201257.j8KCvDns010630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201254 SWODY1 SPC AC 201252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 20 S FAY 15 SW SOP 25 SSE GSO 45 ESE LYH 35 WSW DOV TTN 15 SSE POU 15 SW PSF 35 NNE PSF 20 S LEB 15 ENE CON BOS 20 SW EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMY 45 ENE FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW LCH 45 N POE 30 WSW MLU 20 E ELD 25 N TXK 35 SW PGO 20 ESE MKO 40 SW UMN 10 ENE SGF 20 NE MDH 25 SSW DAY YNG 35 S ROC 30 W ART ...CONT... 15 ESE CHS 35 SE AGS 30 S ATL 45 WSW 0A8 MEI 50 ESE MCB 30 SSW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 SSW SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW UKI 20 ENE RBL 65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 30 N EVW 30 NNW VEL 30 NE CNY 40 SE GUC 40 ENE ALS 25 SE LHX 50 SE GLD 20 ESE HLC 25 NNE CNK 35 NW TOP 25 NNW EMP 35 ENE ICT 45 WNW PNC 60 ENE AMA 35 SW AMA 20 S TCC 45 N 4CR 10 NW ONM 35 WSW TCS 40 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM ERN NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS S FL AND THE FL KEYS.... ...NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS TODAY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER SW QUEBEC...AND A SEPARATE WAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE QUEBEC WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRUSH NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS PA/NY NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BY TONIGHT. FARTHER S...THE OH VALLEY SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING ERN NC/VA BY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS OH VALLEY...WHILE A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS IS SPREADING ENEWD OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY...WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND MLCAPE VALUES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO VALUES AOB 750 J/KG. STILL...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER S...STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM ERN NC TO SRN NJ. HOWEVER... VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N. EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...S FL AND THE KEYS... TROPICAL STORM RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY WHILE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE OPEN SE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE FL KEYS...LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY ACROSS S FL AND THE KEYS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR OUTER BAND SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO OR TWO TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ...SRN CA AREA... AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS THIS MORNING E OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34 N AND 123 W. NWD ADVECTION OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD NWD IN CA AND INTO SRN NV TODAY. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KT SLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 16:38:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 11:38:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509201638.j8KGcngE010680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201635 SWODY1 SPC AC 201634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM FAY 30 NNW SOP 25 WNW DAN 20 NE SHD 10 S ABE POU 15 NNW ORH BOS 20 SW EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 25 WNW ESF 10 ENE MLU 35 S PBF 30 ESE HOT 35 ENE MLC 25 NNE MKO 25 N SGF 45 ESE VIH 45 NW EVV 55 SSW CMH 20 N LBE 25 WSW ELM 10 WSW MSS ...CONT... 20 W CTY 35 NE AYS 40 SW AGS 35 S ATL 25 NE SEM 45 SW SEM 25 N MOB 35 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SFO 35 SE RBL 65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 50 NE MLD 35 WNW RWL 25 SSE CAG 30 NE GUC 30 ESE COS 30 E GLD 50 SSW HLC 35 NW GAG 20 SW AMA 35 WSW CVS 15 S 4CR 10 ESE TCS 30 SSW SVC 65 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL... ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO CAROLINAS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINE. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN AFFECTING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL EXIST FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION AND EASTERN NC. AIR MASS FROM LONG ISLAND INTO NC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM/DESTABILIZE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN PA INTO CENTRAL VA/NC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGHOUT THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. ...AR/MS/TN... RIDGING BEHIND APPALACHIANS TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...PARTS OF AR/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN MAY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS REGION...WITH JUST ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FOR A RISK OF MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... LARGE PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF CA/NV/AZ TODAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SEE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING FOR A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTH FL... HURRICANE RITA WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND AFFECT SOUTH FL MUCH OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS AND MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF STORM MAY ENHANCE THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD INTO THE KEYS. THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM DEPARTS REGION. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 20:08:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 15:08:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509202008.j8KK8E3D004316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202006 SWODY1 SPC AC 202004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ILM 15 SE SOP 10 SSE GSO 20 W DAN 15 ENE LYH 25 E CHO 15 ESE BWI 10 SSE ILG 15 W NEL 20 E NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW SFO 70 SSW SVE 30 NW LOL 45 WSW TWF 25 NW MLD 35 E EVW 50 N GJT 35 NE CEZ 30 WSW ALS 20 NNW GLD 50 WSW HLC 40 SE LBL 20 SW AMA 35 WSW CVS 35 N ALM 45 NE SAD 50 SE SAD 65 SW DMN ...CONT... 25 SSE CTY 20 SE AYS 45 W SAV 45 WSW AGS 30 ESE ATL 25 NNW LGC 30 SSE BHM 30 W TCL 25 ESE GWO 25 NW GLH 20 SSW LIT 45 N HOT 20 NNW FYV 20 ENE JLN 10 WNW TBN 60 NNW POF 25 SE MDH 25 NE OWB 35 NE LEX 15 SE HTS 30 NW SSU 20 WNW SHD 20 NW ABE 10 E BAF 10 WSW LCI EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN FL... ...MID ATLANTIC... TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL LIFT WILL ACT ON STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE CAROLINAS NEWD TO SRN NJ TO PROMOTE STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND RESULT IN PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ...SRN FL... LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL REMAINS VERY INTENSE IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF HURRICANE RITA. STRONGER FEEDER BAND CELLS TRACKING NWWD OR NNWWD WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150-300 M2/S2. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS CENTER OF RITA PASSES THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...OZARKS TO TN VALLEY... RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK CAP...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE TERRAIN FORCING ACROSS THE OZARKS...MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AIR MASS IS VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUSTAIN SEVERE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN CA TO SRN GREAT BASIN... AFTER A BIT OF A LULL...CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE LA BASIN. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND AND IMPINGE FURTHER ON ELEVATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME. SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. AN ISOLATED HAIL STORM OR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 00:48:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 19:48:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509210048.j8L0mhKJ001428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210046 SWODY1 SPC AC 210044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW FMY 20 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY 20 SE AYS 45 W SAV 45 WSW AGS 25 ESE ATL 15 NNE TCL 15 SE PBF 15 NE HOT 55 S HRO HRO 10 WNW UNO 25 SE CGI 25 SE BKW 15 WSW BWI 35 N EWR 15 WSW LCI 35 N BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AMA 30 ENE TCC 40 N TCC 30 SE TAD 10 SSW LHX 20 NNW LAA 55 WNW GCK 25 SSW GCK 40 S LBL 45 NE AMA 25 W AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S UKI 65 NNE SAC 45 S WMC 40 SSE ENV 20 WNW U28 20 E DRO 35 NW ABQ 40 WNW ONM 70 NE SAD 20 WNW SAD 10 S FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN FL... ...SRN FL... THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS HURRICANE RITA SW OF THE FL KEYS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WWD AWAY FROM SRN FL BUT OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE STILL OVER SRN FL ATTM. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT KEY WEST AND MIAMI FL SHOW SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 35 KT SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA MOVE OFF THE SRN FL COAST LATE. ...ERN NC/SE VA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SWIFT MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS VA AND NC...SUPPORTING SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC TROUGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 68-72 F ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THE STRONG ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING...THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. CONCERNING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LAPSE RATES BELOW 6.0 C/KM WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE SUGGESTING ANY HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND MARGINAL. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CA. THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NEWD AND A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY WEAK IN THE VALLEY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...AS STABILIZATION OCCURS THIS EVENING...STORM INTENSITY AND THE ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 06:00:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 01:00:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509210600.j8L60Dts000554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210558 SWODY1 SPC AC 210556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SW YKN 25 NNE OTG 65 NNE MSP 25 W IWD 45 S CMX 25 NE ESC 20 WNW TVC 30 SSE MBL 30 WSW MKG 25 WSW CGX 30 SSE MLI 15 W LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E OSC 15 S MBS 25 SSW AZO 30 E UIN 40 S IRK 50 NE SZL 35 NE CNU 25 NE ICT 20 NNE RSL 30 NNW RSL 50 E LIC 20 WNW PUB 25 N ALS 30 NNW SAF 15 WNW 4CR 45 NW GDP 70 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MEM 50 WNW MSL 20 ENE CBM 45 N MEI 15 NNW JAN 40 NNE HEZ MLU 25 N MLU 30 W GLH 45 ENE PBF 50 ENE LIT 55 SW JBR 30 N MEM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 40 SE EED 20 NNE DRA 10 NW TPH 35 E NFL 25 WNW WMC 50 NNE BOI DLN 35 N WEY 30 NE WEY 55 WSW COD 40 SE WRL 25 NNW CDR 30 SSW MHE 30 WNW FSD 30 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PNS 20 NNE MAI 45 NE ABY 30 SSE MCN 35 NNE MCN 35 S AHN 10 N CLT 60 E DAN 60 SW RIC 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS CA WILL OPEN AND SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY. THIS WILL KICK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS STRONG ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGHT TONIGHT. A LACK OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY NWD. IF SFC DEWPOINTS CAN INCREASE TO NEAR 60 F...SBCAPE VALUES COULD REACH THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN MN AND NERN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION OFF UNTIL EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS SRN MN OR NW IA WHERE INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SUGGESTING LIFT WILL INCREASE CAUSING STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. THE JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN FAR ERN NEB AND NW IA WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. FARTHER NORTHEAST...AN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE AND DIVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON THE AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN IA AND NRN IL. ..BROYLES.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 12:53:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 07:53:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509211253.j8LCr90D009821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211248 SWODY1 SPC AC 211247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SE OTG 35 NNW MKT 40 E BRD 30 ENE DLH 35 NE IWD 35 NNW IMT 45 S ESC 30 SE OSH 25 ESE MSN 20 SE DBQ 25 N OTM 40 W LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 45 SSE EED 55 NW EED 35 NNE TPH 40 E NFL 40 WSW WMC 50 NNE BOI DLN 35 NNE WEY 55 WSW COD 40 SE WRL 35 NNW CDR 15 SE MHE 35 NW ELO ...CONT... 110 E OSC 15 S MBS 25 SSW AZO 35 E UIN 55 SSW IRK 25 NNE CNU 25 NE ICT 25 N RSL 50 WSW GLD 20 WNW PUB 25 N ALS 30 NNW SAF 15 WNW 4CR 45 NW GDP 65 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CEW 20 SSE DHN 45 S MCN 45 NNE MCN 10 WNW CLT 65 SW RIC 20 NNE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N DYR 45 NW MSL 20 ENE CBM 50 NNW MEI 15 NNW JAN 40 NNE HEZ 15 NNW MLU 25 W GLH 40 ENE PBF 45 SW JBR 20 N DYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN NEB NEWD TO WI/WRN UPPER MI.... ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT... A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL MOVE EWD FROM SRN ALBERTA TO WRN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE CA CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NEWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...REACHING WY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP EWD TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN NEB NEWD TO WI/WRN UPPER MI. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS KS/ERN NEB WILL SPREAD NEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...AND BENEATH A PLUME OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MN...WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS WI TONIGHT. FARTHER SW...THE CAP MAY INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN NEB INTO IA IN RESPONSE TO LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING...AND DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER INITIATION. BY TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 16:35:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 11:35:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509211635.j8LGZKCo012781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211626 SWODY1 SPC AC 211625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SE OTG 25 NW MSP 35 NNE BRD 25 NNW ELO 75 NW CMX 65 ENE MQT 20 SE ESC 10 E MTW 15 ESE LNR 10 NNE CID 30 SSE DSM 40 W LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW IPL 45 W EED 40 NNE LAS 30 NW P38 40 S U31 10 E WMC 45 E BOI 15 SE DLN 20 ESE LVM 20 E COD 45 NNW CPR CDR 35 NNE ANW 10 N MHE 35 W AXN 10 W BJI 15 NW INL ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 25 SW FNT 15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PFN 45 NE ABY 10 WNW CLT 10 W RDU 35 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DYR 30 WSW CHA 10 W ANB 25 ENE MEI 50 S GLH 35 ENE ELD 25 SSE HOT 50 NNW LIT 15 ENE ARG DYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW BAND OF FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN SD/NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING THE IMPETUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WI. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOW AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. LOW LEVEL ASCENT NEAR LOW/WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AFTER OOZ SUGGESTS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CAP STRENGTH AFTER DARK WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MN...WHERE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS WI...AND DEVELOPS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF IA. ...WY/UT/CO... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER NV. BAND OF 50-60 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WY/CO/UT THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 20:05:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 15:05:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509212005.j8LK5E49019807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212002 SWODY1 SPC AC 212000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MTW 25 NW MKE 25 ENE DBQ 20 ESE ALO 45 WNW DSM 35 NNW OMA 25 S YKN FSD 45 SSW AXN 35 E BRD 20 ENE DLH 30 SW CMX 40 E MQT 20 SE ESC 15 NE MTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 ENE OSC 25 SW FNT 15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 75 SSW DMN ...CONT... 45 SE CZZ 45 W EED 40 NNE LAS 30 NW P38 40 S U31 10 E WMC 45 E BOI 15 SE DLN 20 ESE LVM 20 E COD 45 NNW CPR CDR 35 NNE ANW 10 N MHE 35 W AXN 10 W BJI 30 NNE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW PFN 45 NE ABY 10 WNW CLT 10 W RDU 50 NE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DYR 30 WSW CHA 10 W ANB 25 ENE MEI 50 S GLH 35 ENE ELD 25 SSE HOT 50 NNW LIT 15 ENE ARG DYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...WRN GREAT LAKES... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SD/NEB...IS ON TRACK TO AID IN STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MN WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY. AS THE IMPULSE MOVES EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD AID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE MAP DEPICTS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO NRN WI AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD TO SWRN NEB. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG FROM SRN MN INTO NRN WI. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA BASED ON RUC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF 10-12C CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST 100 J/KG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND CONTINUED HEATING NEAR LOW/WARM FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SCNTRL MN AND INTO WRN WI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS IN THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES EAST FROM SD/NEB AND SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF STORM INITIATION NEAR THE LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH FOR EWD MOVING CELLS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT 200 M2/S2. OVERALL...RELATIVELY HIGH LFC ABOVE 1.5KM SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS SERN MN AND SWRN WI AFTER DARK. WIND/HAIL THREAT WOULD CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI...AND POSSIBLY BACKBUILD INTO IA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT FROM NRN/CNTRL IA TO NEB LATER TODAY. 18Z RUC AND NAM FORECASTS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT CAP WILL HOLD ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS BUT GREATER THREAT/POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST FROM MN...PERHAPS INTO EXTREME IA...AND INTO WI. ...ID/UT/WY/... EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF 50-60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 00:56:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 19:56:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509220056.j8M0uUmD021164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220054 SWODY1 SPC AC 220053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MTW 25 NW MKE 25 ENE DBQ 20 ESE ALO 45 WNW DSM 35 NNW OMA 25 S YKN FSD 45 SSW AXN 40 E STC RHI 40 SSE IMT 15 NE MTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 ENE OSC 25 SW FNT 15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 75 SSW DMN ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 55 SE PRC 25 ESE BCE 10 WNW SLC 60 WNW BPI 50 NW CPR 10 WNW CDR 45 NNE ANW 25 E HON 25 NW AXN 10 WNW HIB 70 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W PNS 30 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE MID MO VLY... ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENING CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG A FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MN TO NCNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTN. THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING EXHIBITED 7.9 DEGREES C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...60 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND 2600 J/KG MLCAPE...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...HODOGRAPHS SHOW AN ENLARGED LOOP IN THE LOWEST 1KM...WITH NEARLY 30 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. IT APPEARS... HOWEVER...THAT THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR TORNADOES HAS PASSED GIVEN THE INCREASING LCLS/MIXING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE 70F DEW POINTS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING/INCREASING INHIBITION. RADAR SHOWS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINE AND WEAKEN AS WRN-MOST CELLS BEGIN TO MERGE/SEED THE TSTMS DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN WI. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE MPX SOUNDING AND THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...COLD POOL GENERATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING BASED ON RADAR AND THE INCREASED NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE THE INCREASING INHIBITION...THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO SERN MN AND CNTRL WI THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM THROUGHOUT WI AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SWLY LLJ. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A STRONG IMPULSE MIGRATING EWD FROM THE ERN GRT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEB LATER THIS EVENING...THEN TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR ISOLD LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NEB OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... DOWNSTREAM...GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES WITH RESPECT TO THE SWD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM...TSTMS MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN AND NRN IA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH WWD EXTENT OF THIS OCCURRING IS UNCERTAIN. THE THREAT IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SLGT RISK...HOWEVER. ...CNTRL ROCKIES... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN GRT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE INTERACTED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PW PLUME SITUATED ACROSS WRN CO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS AND H5 WINDS AOA 40 KTS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ORGANIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT WINDOW FOR ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAS PASSED AND ONLY ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS WRN CO. ..RACY.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 05:38:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 00:38:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509220538.j8M5cliO006283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220537 SWODY1 SPC AC 220535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CLE 25 NE DAY 10 NNE SLO 50 NNE SGF 45 SSW EMP 20 SSW SLN 25 NE CNK 30 SW DBQ 45 NE MKE 40 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE YUM 65 E BLH 45 NE IGM 15 NE PGA 15 NNW CNY 40 WSW CAG 30 ENE CAG 25 N LAR 45 W BFF 40 SW MHN 25 SE BUB 15 S MCW 40 NNE GRB 20 WSW ANJ ...CONT... 30 NNW BML PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 NNE GLS 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20 W BVO 60 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GRTLKS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE STRONGER WLYS ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND SWD ON THU AS A SERIES OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PHASE INTO THE NRN STREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS REGION. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL GRTLKS THU AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THU. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL FROM NRN LWR MI EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO NRN ONTARIO BY THU NIGHT...IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE CNTRL GRTLKS TO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRI. BUT... TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THU AND THU NIGHT. ...CNTRL/LWR GRTLKS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS IMPULSE WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD TSTMS FROM NRN LWR MI WWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY THU. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO DURING THE AFTN. THUS...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING EWD FROM THE CNTRL TO THE LWR GRTLKS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL PROBABLY BE INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH ONLY AN ISOLD HAIL THREAT ACROSS MOST OF LWR MI. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WSWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER HEATING WILL MAINTAIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM MO EWD TO IL...IND AND NRN OH. BUT...THE WARM LAYER BETWEEN H85-H7 OBSERVED IN EVENING SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN STRONG. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL EWD INTO NRN OH WHERE THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HERE... SURFACE BASED INITIATION COULD OCCUR BY MID-AFTN. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH...WHILE A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAIN MODE WILL BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH PERHAPS LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE EML WILL BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER EAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD INITIATE BY LATE AFTN ACROSS NRN KS/NRN MO OWING TO STRONG HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. BUT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR/N OF THE COLD FRONT MID-EVENING ONWARD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN KS AND NRN MO AS THE MAIN FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD. THESE STORMS COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL. ...FOUR-CORNERS REGION... DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SRN PERIPHERY OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRESENCE OF 30-40 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 12:54:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 07:54:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509221254.j8MCs24e030821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221252 SWODY1 SPC AC 221250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW ERI 10 SW CMH 35 NW EVV 15 NNW TBN 35 S EMP 30 SE SLN 15 N MHK 35 NNW IRK 20 NW MLI LNR 30 SW OSH 45 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 NNE GLS 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20 W BVO 60 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 25 SSE YUM 65 E BLH 45 NE IGM 15 NE PGA 15 NNW CNY 40 WSW CAG 30 ENE CAG 25 N LAR 45 W BFF 40 SW MHN 40 SSW SUX 25 ESE MKT 40 NNE GRB 20 WSW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM ERN KS TO LOWER MI/NW OH.... ...LOWER MO VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT... A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD TO QUEBEC...WHILE SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA MOVE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY IN A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT EWD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING TO SRN QUEBEC...AND THE ENEWD MOTION OF A SECONDARY LOW FROM ERN IA THIS MORNING TO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THESE LOWS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT / ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL WI AS OF 12Z / WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD TO THE SRN PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY. SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F OVER MO/IL. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA/NRN OH...POSSIBLY REACHING WRN PA/NY BY EARLY TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG/ IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND ASCENT WEAKEN THE CAP. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MOST CONVECTION WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE LINEAR MODES GIVEN THE MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 16:35:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 11:35:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509221635.j8MGZU6P009413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221626 SWODY1 SPC AC 221624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ERI 30 ESE MFD 20 NE IND 20 SW DNV 30 SSE BRL 25 ENE OTM 15 SSW DBQ MKE 30 WSW MBS 75 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE PSX 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20 SE END 40 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 85 S GBN 10 S PHX 10 SE FLG 20 SW BCE 50 NW 4HV VEL 50 NNW CAG 40 NNW LAR 10 W BFF 45 SW MHN 35 SSW EAR 10 WNW BIE 45 NW LWD 20 S LSE 40 NNE GRB 15 NE ANJ ...CONT... 45 NE EFK PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 55 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DLN 35 SSW LVM 40 SW COD 25 NW BPI 20 S MLD 15 NW ENV 15 SSE EKO 45 NNE BAM 50 NNW OWY 50 WNW SUN 25 SW DLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY... ...GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID MS VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UPPER MI INTO EASTERN NEB. PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...FROM CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN MO. SURFACE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OCCURRING. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI/NORTHERN IND. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING CAP STRENGTH WITH TIME...SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 06Z. ...NM/CO... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...SPREADING UVVS INTO PARTS OF NM/CO THROUGH THE DAY. PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROUGH...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THIS AREA. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 19:53:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 14:53:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509221954.j8MJsEtT031914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221951 SWODY1 SPC AC 221949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ERI 30 ESE MFD 20 NE IND 20 SW DNV 30 SSE BRL 20 N BRL 30 NNW MLI 20 SE MKE 30 WSW MBS 75 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE EFK PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 55 E ECG ...CONT... 65 ESE PSX 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20 SE END 40 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 85 S GBN 10 S PHX 10 SE FLG 20 SW BCE 50 NW 4HV VEL 50 NNW CAG 40 NNW LAR 10 W BFF 45 SW MHN 35 SSW EAR 15 SSW LNK 50 W DSM 50 NW DBQ 20 E GRB 25 NNW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DLN 35 SSW LVM 40 SW COD 25 NW BPI 20 W SLC 50 S ENV 40 SSE EKO 45 NNE BAM 50 NNW OWY 50 WNW SUN 25 SW DLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...EMBEDDED WITH A BELT OF 45-60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MID MO VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL LOWER MI WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS NWRN IL...NRN MO AND INTO SERN KS. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH WRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER IL. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY... TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF COLD FRONT N OF CHICAGO EWD ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI TO N OF DETROIT. WHILE MAJORITY OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION...THE WRN-MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY SURFACE-BASED. 18Z...ILX SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...EXHIBITING STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SOME CAPPING FOR MEAN-MIXED PARCELS. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT AS WELL AS RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH HEIGHT AS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS OVER CNTRL LOWER MI WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OR SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN OH TONIGHT. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS AIR MASS COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...4-CORNERS REGION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING STORM ACTIVITY OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM/SERN UT AND SRN CO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...LARGELY AS A RESULT OF STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 23 01:15:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 20:15:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509230114.j8N1EoGd029619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230110 SWODY1 SPC AC 230109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF JHW 15 SW FKL 15 W CMH 25 WSW IND 30 SE SPI 20 SSW PIA 30 N PIA 15 SW CGX 25 SW LAN 85 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 25 SE GFL 20 WSW POU CXY 45 W EKN 35 SE SDF 20 NNE POF 20 SSW JLN 20 SW END 40 WNW LBB 55 SE ELP ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 SE PHX 10 S FLG 20 SW PGA 45 ENE BCE 20 NNW U28 45 E VEL 50 SW LAR 35 ESE CYS 30 NW IML 50 NNE HLC 25 SSE BIE 25 W OTM 35 NW CGX 10 SSW GRR 70 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 45 ENE LFK 25 ENE GWO 10 NE RMG 15 SW CAE 40 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MQM WEY 35 NE JAC 15 W BPI 10 WNW SLC 40 W DPG 40 SE EKO 40 S OWY 45 NNE OWY 30 NW SUN 25 W MQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AREA... ...OH VALLEY AREA... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IND INTO CNTRL IL WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE S OF THE FRONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM IL THROUGH IND AND WRN OH WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FARTHER NEWD TOWARD PA AND NY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE STRONGER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH TIME. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SMALL SCALE BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ...WRN GULF COASTAL REGION... BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE CNTRL AND WRN GULF. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT AS RITA CONTINUES NWWD. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEEDED TO SUPPORT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL FRIDAY. ..DIAL.. 09/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 01:04:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 20:04:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509250104.j8P145RL017824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250101 SWODY1 SPC AC 250059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW HLC 10 NE GLD 35 E AKO 30 ENE SNY 15 NE MHN 40 SE 9V9 25 W BKX 15 WSW RWF 35 SE MKT 45 WSW ALO 15 NW DSM 20 ENE LNK 50 S EAR 35 WNW HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E 7R4 40 NW HEZ 20 E ELD 45 NE TXK 35 ESE PGO 20 SSE FYV 35 NE HRO 35 W POF 30 WNW DYR 15 NNW CBM 10 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 20 WNW LBE 10 SW EKN 35 ENE 5I3 25 W LOZ 35 SSE BNA 20 NE BHM 30 SE TLH ...CONT... 20 SSE BPT 25 NNW LCH 20 NW POE 25 SE GGG 25 SSE TYR 30 ESE DAL 25 SSE ADM 50 NW MLC 40 ENE BVO 50 NNE JLN 25 ESE MKC 10 NNW FLV 30 SE CNK 15 ENE GCK 40 S EHA 15 E CVS 40 SSW ROW 25 SE ALM 35 NW ALM 45 W RTN 15 SW GUC 25 WSW GJT 60 WNW 4HV 55 E ELY 50 WNW ENV 45 W SUN 40 WSW 27U 35 WNW DLN 25 SSE LVM 35 N SHR 25 NNW REJ 10 SE BIS 35 WNW FAR 30 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE FLO 30 ENE CAE 35 S CLT 45 ESE CLT 30 E FAY 30 SE OAJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB...SRN SD INTO PART OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS FROM ERN LA THROUGH MS AND ARK WELL TO THE E AND NE OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR SHREVEPORT LA. RITA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE A NWD OR NNEWD MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND MAY BEGIN TO SLOW ITS NWD MOTION. SOME DECREASE IN NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE...MAINLY FROM ARK...MS AND EXTREME WRN TN...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING SLOWLY NWD OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN NEB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NERN NEB WHERE STORMS MAY INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT FROM WRN AND CNTRL NEB INTO SRN AND WRN SD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN WY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 05:55:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 00:55:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509250555.j8P5taVe029476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250553 SWODY1 SPC AC 250552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SPI 30 NW HUF 25 ENE BMG 20 NE SDF 60 E BWG 40 WSW CHA 15 SE BHM 30 WSW SEM 20 ESE LUL 35 S JAN 45 E MLU 10 ESE PBF 45 S UNO 35 E VIH 30 SSE SPI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 10 WNW RUT 45 WSW ALB 20 SW IPT 20 NW BKW 10 SSE JKL 35 NNW TYS 15 ESE CHA 15 WNW LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 25 WSW GLS 30 S LFK 35 NNE GGG 30 SSE UMN 15 SW JLN 40 N END 35 NNW LBL 30 WSW COS 45 ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25 N JAC COD 20 SE GCC 40 WSW PHP 25 WNW 9V9 25 ENE ATY 25 NNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST BY NHC TO TURN NEWD ACROSS ARK SUNDAY TO NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WLYS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS E AND NE OF THE CENTER FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THIS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AND N OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD FROM RITA. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXISTS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OR S OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 13:59:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 08:59:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509251358.j8PDwhYm001204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251235 SWODY1 SPC AC 251234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SPI 30 NW HUF 25 ENE BMG 20 NE SDF 60 E BWG 40 WSW CHA 15 SE BHM 30 WSW SEM 20 ESE LUL 35 S JAN 45 E MLU 10 ESE PBF 45 S UNO 35 E VIH 30 SSE SPI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E STJ 25 WSW MHK 40 NNE RSL 15 NNW GRI 30 N OFK 10 ENE OTG 15 E MCW 35 N OTM 30 SW OTM 30 E STJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 30 S LFK 35 NNE GGG 30 SSE UMN 25 SSW JLN 20 NE END 25 NW LBL 30 WSW COS 45 ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25 N JAC 15 NNE COD 20 SE GCC 40 WSW PHP 25 NW 9V9 35 ENE ATY 60 N EAU 20 NE PLN ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 10 WNW RUT 30 NW POU 20 SW IPT 20 NW BKW 10 SSE JKL 35 NNW TYS 15 ESE CHA 15 WNW LGC 25 SSE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...LOWER MS AND WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS... FORMER HURRICANE RITA LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AR THIS AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY TONIGHT. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON THE 88D VWP'S WITH IN EXCESS OF 40KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR FROM MS NWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY. WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FILL THRU THE PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MINI-TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD FROM CURRENT POSITION NERN AR SWD THRU WRN MS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO MID 70S SUPPORT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS NOW PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND MOVING EWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL NEB THEN TO ERN CO. FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW SEWD PROGRESS TODAY UNTIL UPSTREAM VIGOROUS S/WV CURRENTLY CROSSING ROCKIES MOVES INTO HIGH PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ERN NEB INTO NRN KS WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. WITH AID FROM LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTAL LIFT...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..HALES/GUYER.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 17:38:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 12:38:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509251737.j8PHbhcv027741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251640 SWODY1 SPC AC 251639 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MTO 30 NW HUF 35 SSE IND 35 NE SDF 60 E BWG 20 W CHA 30 SE BHM 30 SW SEM 15 E LUL 35 NE MCB 30 SW JAN 25 S MKL 20 SE CGI 15 SE BLV 30 WSW MTO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE STJ 20 NNE MHK 25 WNW CNK 25 E HSI 25 E OLU 10 NW SPW 15 W MCW 45 NNW OTM 40 SW OTM 35 ENE STJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE OSC 40 NNE GRR 30 ENE MKG 25 WNW MKG 25 WSW MBL 10 N TVC 25 NNE APN 45 ENE OSC 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 25 WNW ORH 25 NNE POU 15 E IPT 25 N BKW 10 SSW JKL 15 ESE CHA 15 WNW LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 25 WSW GLS 30 ESE LFK 15 NNW ELD 30 SSE HRO 25 SSW JLN 20 NE END 25 NW LBL 30 WSW COS 45 ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25 N JAC 15 NNE COD 10 S 81V 30 SW PHP 10 SE HON 25 ESE RWF 15 SW CWA 20 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 10 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 30 SSW MER 45 NNW BFL LAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE TN/LWR OH AND LWR MS VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER THE LWR MO VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LWR MI... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF RITA APPEAR TO BE BECOMING RAPIDLY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS AS RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA ALSO SHOW APPARENT IMPULSE IN THE WLYS OVER MN/WRN WI... DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WY AND CO. AT LWR LEVELS...EXPECT DIFFUSE SURFACE WAVE NOW IN WI TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MOVE E/NE ALONG STALLED FRONT INTO NRN MI. TRAILING PART OF FRONT W OF WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. ...TN/LWR OH/LWR MS VLYS... CIRCULATION LEFT FROM RITA IS NOW OVER NE AR. SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO NEAR EVV/SDF BY 12Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW NOW OVER CNTRL MS SHOULD REACH WRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NE INTO ERN KY EARLY MONDAY. MAIN CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SE/S FROM RITA...ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF TSTM/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORMS...AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS NRN MS/W TN...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MOST STRONGLY BACKED. ADDITIONAL...MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS IN ZONE OF STRONGER HEATING OVER AL AND MIDDLE TN. 50+ KT SLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS REGION AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. BUT A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY NWD INTO PARTS OF KY AND THE LWR OH VLY. ...LWR MO VLY... MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR MO VLY REGION TONIGHT AS FAIRLY POTENT IMPULSE OVER WY/CO CONTINUES EWD. SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT NOW IN S CNTRL NEB/NW KS SHOULD CONTINUE SE TODAY. E OF THERE...BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW SE PROGRESS ACROSS IA/WI UNTIL WY/CO SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. EXPECT MODERATE BUT CAPPED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SE NE/NRN KS/NW MO/SW IA WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY YIELD STORM INITIATION ALONG BOUNDARY. MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER...INITIATION WILL WAIT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER COOLING ALOFT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED. 50+ KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL. ...NRN MI... MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 19:53:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 14:53:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509251952.j8PJqiAx028867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251950 SWODY1 SPC AC 251948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE STJ 10 NW MHK 15 ESE CNK 30 WNW BIE 15 E OLU 30 NNW OMA 50 W DSM 45 ENE DSM 40 SW OTM 35 ENE STJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EVV 40 N SDF 25 SSE LUK 35 E LEX 10 NNW CSV 15 E ANB 10 SSW TOI 50 N MOB 35 NE MCB 30 SW JAN 35 SSE MKL 55 WSW HOP 20 NE PAH 30 NNW EVV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 25 WNW ORH 25 NNE POU 30 E CXY 35 NE SSU 30 SSE JKL 35 E CHA 15 NE LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 25 SSW LCH 20 NW HEZ 40 WSW DYR 60 SE VIH 20 N SZL 35 ENE EMP 15 WSW HUT IML 30 SE DEN 35 SSE RKS 45 NW LND 20 ENE COD SHR 35 WNW RAP 20 SE ANW 20 NNW OTG 30 ENE VOK 20 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 30 SSW MER 45 NNW BFL LAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MS/AL NWD INTO PARTS OF TN/KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS NEWD INTO LOWER MI... ...MS/AL NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA ARE NOW CENTERED OVER NERN AR. PROMINENT RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION IS INDICATED ATTM INVOF THE MS /AL BORDER -- WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD/CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MS AND AL. AREA WSR-88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES /AS HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE LOWEST KM/...FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD SLOWLY NWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KY. ...SERN NEB/NERN KS ENEWD TO LOWER MI... BAROCLINIC ZONE -- COMPRISED OF A FRONT AND SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOWS -- EXTENDS FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB ENEWD ACROSS SRN IA / SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE GENERALLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG MOST OF THIS BOUNDARY...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING OVER SERN NEB/NERN KS AND INTO SWRN IA/FAR NWRN MO HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. AIRMASS ACROSS THE SERN NEB/NERN KS REGION REMAINS CAPPED...WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH LATEST FBY /FAIRBURY NEB/ PROFILER INDICATING INCREASINGLY-STRONG FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE MID TROPOSPHERE...RESULTING LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER ENEWD ALONG BOUNDARY...STORMS HAVE SHOWN MARGINAL/TRANSIENT ORGANIZATION -- BOTH ON THE STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE. STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO...OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL HOWEVER...GENERAL LACK OF FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 00:48:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 19:48:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509260048.j8Q0mF3i002712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260046 SWODY1 SPC AC 260044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ANB 25 NW AUO 25 S AUO 20 ESE TOI 30 SW TOI 70 NNE MOB 35 W LUL 40 SSW JAN 25 WSW JAN 50 WSW CBM 20 SE TUP 30 N MSL 45 S BNA 35 WNW CHA 25 SW CHA 20 ENE ANB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 35 NW GFL 25 SSE SYR 25 ENE DUJ PKB 20 NE JKL 35 E CHA 15 NE LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 55 SW PNS 30 WNW GPT 25 SSE HEZ 30 N HEZ 30 SE GLH 20 WNW TUP 45 ENE DYR 15 E MDH 35 NNW STL 25 WSW P35 20 ESE HSI 20 NNW MCK IML 25 SE FCL 35 SW LAR 15 NW RWL 45 NW CPR 20 SSE GCC 30 WSW PHP 15 N 9V9 20 NNW OTG 30 ENE VOK 170 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 20 SSE PRB 25 NE SBA 10 WSW LAX 65 W SAN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP S... ...DEEP S... A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING NWD INTO REMNANT RITA CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS MS/AL THIS AFTN. MINIMAL CINH AND CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS. A 40-KT SLY LLJ BENEATH WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CREATED VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH WERE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. 00Z SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONGER INSTABILITY HAS COLLAPSED IN AREAL EXTENT...NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL/SRN MS AND CNTRL AL WITH DECREASING CAPE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. 00Z BMX/JAN SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT 1300-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND 0-1KM SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. AS REMNANT RITA CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY...THE H92-H85 JET SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE TN VLY/MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. AS A RESULT...THE TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER ABOUT MID- EVENING. ...CORN BELT AND MIDWEST... SURFACE BASED TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS THE CORN BELT AS HEATING HAS BEEN AT A PREMIUM AND INHIBITION TOO STRONG. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS WEAK OWING TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH REMNANT RITA. STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ECNTRL IA ACROSS SERN WI INTO CNTRL LWR MI. SUSPECT THAT THE TSTMS ARE ROOTED ATOP A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z DTX/ILX SOUNDINGS. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EFFECTIVELY DECREASING WIND RISKS. WILL MAINTAIN SUB-SLGT WIND PROBABILITIES IN CASE A STRONGER TSTM DOWNDRAFT MAY BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER. HAIL DOES NOT SEEM TO MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 05:31:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 00:31:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509260531.j8Q5V1mR014726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260529 SWODY1 SPC AC 260527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ORF 55 N RWI 20 N RDU 35 NNW GSO 15 NW PSK 15 E EKN 10 WSW AOO 20 N IPT 25 NW MSV PSF 10 SE ORH 20 NE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW GLS 40 W HOU 40 SE AUS 35 NW AUS 40 W ACT 25 SSW DAL 45 SSE MLC 20 SE FYV PAH 30 ESE MVN 20 SSW MTO 45 NW ALN 25 ENE IRK 40 NNE IRK 35 NW BRL 35 ENE MLI 40 NW BEH 65 ESE OSC ...CONT... 95 W CAR 25 W 3B1 50 S BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SBA 50 E MRY 25 NNE SFO 40 N UKI 40 NNW SVE 35 WNW LOL 50 NNW U31 55 ESE U31 50 WNW P38 35 SW DAG 35 SSW LGB 35 SW SBA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD...REACHING THE OH VLY MON EVE AND THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z TUE. REMNANT RITA WILL BE EJECTED QUICKLY FROM THE TN VLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON AFTN THEN OUT TO SEA BY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD FROM THE GRTLKS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE UPPER OH VLY AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY MON EVE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS MON AFTN. ...MID/UPPER OH VLY EWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC... RICH LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD FROM THE TN VLY/ CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND ON MON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH. BY MID-AFTN...MID AND UPPER 60S DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON AS FAR N AS SRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN NY THROUGH THE OH AND TN VLYS. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AT LEAST INITIALLY...ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS/OH VLY. BUT...ALONG/E OF THE MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SOME HEATING...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY. COMBINATION OF UPPER SUPPORT FROM REMNANT RITA AND APPROACHING MIDWEST TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY AND/OR DEVELOP VCNTY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM CNTRL PA SWD INTO ERN WV BY MID-AFTN. TSTMS WILL THEN LIKELY GROW STRONGER AS THEY APPROACH SERN NY...ERN PA AND CNTRL VA BY LATE AFTN...EVOLVING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ALREADY BE QUITE STRONG AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL PROBABLY SPREAD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS LATE MON EVE AS A FORCED SQUALL-LINE TYPE OF SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY. MEANWHILE...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE OH VLY MONDAY AFTN...IN WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ATOP 60S DEW POINTS AND 60-65 KTS OF H5 CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...ARKLATEX REGION... A COUPLE MEMBERS OF THE 21Z SPC SREF SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION MON EVE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF MODEST MOISTURE ARE POSITIVES FOR CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED FROM RITA...BUT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE MAY AUGMENT COLD DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION/ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY/GUYER.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 12:20:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 07:20:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509261220.j8QCKFbP025200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261217 SWODY1 SPC AC 261215 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 W CAR 25 W 3B1 50 S BHB ...CONT... 50 SSW GLS 40 W HOU 40 SE AUS 35 NW AUS 40 W ACT 25 SSW DAL 45 SSE MLC 30 SE FYV 25 ESE UMN 30 SW SZL 30 NNW SZL 35 WSW BRL 30 SSE CGX 25 SSE MKG 65 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LGB 45 SW SBA 35 W PRB 20 SE SJC 40 N UKI 40 NNW SVE 35 WNW LOL 50 NNW U31 30 E ELY 45 WNW 4HV 50 ESE PGA 50 ENE PHX 40 SSE EED 25 NE TRM 35 SSW LGB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... REMNANTS OF RITA REFLECTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY BEING FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT FROM MI SWWD INTO OK. ALOFT A FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH ENTERING WRN OH VALLEY WILL REACH ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND PCPN ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG LOW/MID WIND FIELDS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS NOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TODAY FOR SUPPORT OF STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THUS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE RISK E OF THE APPALACHIANS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 16:54:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 11:54:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509261653.j8QGrt1X028264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261629 SWODY1 SPC AC 261628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 55 E CLL 35 SSW TYR 40 N PRX MKO 15 WNW JLN SZL 40 NNW COU 35 SSW SPI BMG 20 W DAY 35 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EKA 45 SE MHS 30 NW NFL 50 ESE U31 30 NNE U24 25 W U28 25 WSW PGA 45 SSW GCN 45 SE EED 25 NNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA INDICATE THAT REMNANTS OF "RITA" HAVE BECOME NEARLY COMPLETELY ABSORBED INTO INCREASING WLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE UPR OH VLY/NERN U.S. UPSTREAM IMPULSE WHICH WAS OVER WY/CO YESTERDAY HAS ADVANCED TO IA/MO. THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY TODAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST BY EARLY TUESDAY AS RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE RCKYS/HI PLNS. DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD WLY IMPULSE AND REMNANTS OF RITA WILL PROGRESS E TO THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NRN AND MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT. SRN PART OF FRONT WILL PROGRESS MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN GULF CST REGION AND SOUTHEAST. ...MID ATLANTIC/NERN STATES... A MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AREA CLOSE TO LOW/MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA. LATER TODAY... LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IA/MO TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY FROM MD/PA NWD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE E OFF THE CST BY EARLY TUESDAY. PREFRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. THUS...DESPITE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SHALLOW SUPERCELLS /SSWLY LLJ AOA 50 KTS/...LIMITED LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. A FEW CELLS MAY...NEVERTHELESS...YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ERN PA/NJ NEWD INTO NEW ENG LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO ERN VA/NC LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ...ERN GULF CST REGION... RADAR AND VWP DATA SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER ATTM OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FROM PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER SRN MS/AL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IS TROUGH NOW EXTENDING NNE/SSW ACROSS ERN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. AREA W OF VORT IS STRONGLY CAPPED...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT BOTH W AND E OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS...IN SOME SENSE...A WEAK WARM FRONT...WITH THE WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WITH VORT MAX LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN A KINEMATIC PROFILE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL/SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY. SURFACE HEATING/WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE NEW STORMS INVOF THE VORT. IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM...A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND VEERING WIND PROFILES PRESENT AT LOW LEVELS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 19:40:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 14:40:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509261939.j8QJdsTM031655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261937 SWODY1 SPC AC 261935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE GLS 50 ESE CLL 25 W CLL 15 NNW ACT 30 NW PRX 25 SE MKO 20 NNW FYV 20 SE UNO 25 N DYR 35 S CKV 40 NNW CSV 55 W UNI 30 NE FDY 75 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW EKA 45 SE MHS 30 NW NFL 50 ESE U31 30 NNE U24 25 W U28 25 WSW PGA 45 SSW GCN 45 SE EED 60 WSW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC... WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTEND ROUGHLY 100-200MI AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR/DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONFIRM THIS MORE FOCUSED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WHERE SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BENEATH PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WIND SHIFT. WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITHIN WEAK LAPSE RATE/MEAGER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. ...SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE... SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS REMNANT UPPER VORT CENTER DROPS SWD ACROSS ERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF THICKER CLOUDINESS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER VORT. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT HAIL BUT RATHER A BRIEF TORNADO IS ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. ..DARROW.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 00:50:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 19:50:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509270049.j8R0nj5D030285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270047 SWODY1 SPC AC 270046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 45 ENE PIE 10 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE 25 ESE CLT 25 E TRI 25 SSW CRW 25 S AOO 40 SE BUF 10 SSE ART 20 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW EKA 50 NE RBL 20 SSW RNO 35 ESE BIH 40 E NID 40 SSE DAG 30 WNW SAN 60 WSW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN STATES... BROAD WARM CONVEYER BELT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN. ABSENCE OF HEATING AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES KEPT INSTABILITY VERY LOW AND TSTMS ISOLD. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OH VLY ATTM. ASSOCIATED COOLING IN THE H7-H5 LAYER SPREADING ATOP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM ERN NY INTO CNTRL PA. THE COLUMN WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY ALOFT AND COULD SUPPORT EVENING TSTMS DOWNSTREAM FROM ABOUT THE NYC AREA NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS /ALB...IAD IN PARTICULAR/ SHOW A STABLE LAYER WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS /POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/ TO THE SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS EVENING... BUT OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL. ..RACY.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 05:51:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 00:51:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509270551.j8R5pWMC029326@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270549 SWODY1 SPC AC 270546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TUS 20 SSW PHX 35 ENE TRM 50 E NID 45 ENE SCK 35 WSW TVL 15 N LOL 20 N OWY 30 WNW IDA 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 35 NNE CYS 25 NE SNY 20 WSW BBW 20 SW OLU 15 WSW FNB 20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 15 SE CNM 75 SE ELP ...CONT... 60 E CRP 35 NW VCT 20 E AUS 50 SSE DAL 50 N GGG 35 SSE TXK 15 W MLU 40 NW BTR 25 ENE MSY PNS 45 ESE MCN 35 SSW FLO 45 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE CMX 40 S CMX 35 WSW RHI 20 NW EAU 40 N MSP BRD 40 W HIB 40 E INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM WLYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON TUE. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY WED. A CUT-OFF LOW WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL EJECT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TUE AFTN/NITE AS AN OPEN WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN TROUGH...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY WED MORNING. AN OLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. ...GRT BASIN... PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN A WARM CONVEYER EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GRT BASIN TUE AFTN. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETARD HEATING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. BUT... PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TSTMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IF MORE INSTABILITY INDEED MATERIALIZE. ...CNTRL PLAINS... CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES DURING TUE AFTN IS APT TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING/COOLING. THE PLAINS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE AFTN...BUT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NRN KS/NEB...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SWD. MUCAPE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE LIMITED AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 30 KTS LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH/SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..RACY/GUYER.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 12:28:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 07:28:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509271227.j8RCRp04017783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271225 SWODY1 SPC AC 271223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW TUS 20 SSW PHX 35 ENE TRM 30 WNW DRA 25 SSW NFL 20 WSW LOL 20 N OWY 30 WNW IDA 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 45 W BFF 10 SE AIA 25 SW OFK 15 WSW FNB 20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 15 SE CNM 75 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 30 N VCT 40 WSW CLL 50 SSE DAL 50 N GGG 35 SSE TXK 15 W MLU 40 NW BTR 25 ENE MSY PNS 45 ESE MCN 35 SSW FLO 35 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE CMX 40 S CMX 35 WSW RHI 20 NW EAU 35 W MSP 30 ENE AXN 40 W HIB 40 E INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG TROUGH MOVES ESEWD FROM WRN CANADA INTO NCENTRAL U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY A COOL FALL LIKE AIR MASS. UPPER LOW INITIALLY CA/NV BORDER WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO UT BY TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES/PRECEDES THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NV/UT/NRN AZ. WHILE THE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE LIMITED OVERALL INSTABILITY AND REDUCED HEATING FROM THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD THRU THE PLAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. ..HALES/GUYER.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 16:48:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 11:48:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509271647.j8RGljWw017451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271630 SWODY1 SPC AC 271629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 WNW GBN 25 NE TRM 25 ENE DAG 35 WNW DRA 25 SSW NFL 20 WSW LOL 35 NNW OWY 50 SW MQM 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 45 W BFF 10 SE AIA 25 SW OFK 15 WSW FNB 20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 20 ESE CNM 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE MQT 25 WNW RHI 20 NW EAU 35 WNW MSP 35 N AXN 20 WSW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 55 SSE AUS 20 NNE AUS 40 NNE ACT 40 S PRX 30 E TXK 15 WNW MLU 30 NNW BTR 10 NNE MSY 25 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 SSE ATL 30 NE AGS 30 SE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN THE POLAR WLY OVER THE N PACIFIC IN RECENT DAYS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NOAM THIS PERIOD. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS FLOW...NOW OVER SRN BC/NRN ID...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SE INTO THE NRN PLNS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO...EXISTING SRN BRANCH LOW OVER WRN NV EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD INTO UT. ...UT/WRN CO... 60+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NV UPR LOW WILL SHIFT ENE ACROSS UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...ENHANCING DEEP SHEAR OVER REGION. RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA DEPICT CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SUPPORTING BANDS OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION/STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE THE OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN LIMITED /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/...BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION AS HEATING RESULTS IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH UPR SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF SMALL SCALE BOW SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN UT INTO WRN CO. FARTHER NW...A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL CLOSER TO RESIDUAL UPR LOW CENTER INTO NE NV/NW UT. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NRN PLNS. NEVERTHELESS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS OVER CNTRL HI PLNS TONIGHT... SPREADING E INTO THE LWR PLNS/MID AND LWR MO VLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...E TX/WRN LA... A POCKET OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF WEAK LOW/CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE SABINE RIVER VLY...WHERE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP NLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE A LIMITED CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL...STRONG AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE SUCH DEVELOPMENT. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 19:59:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 14:59:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509271959.j8RJx8aO001197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271956 SWODY1 SPC AC 271955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 WNW GBN 25 NE TRM 25 ENE DAG 35 WNW DRA 25 SSW NFL 20 WSW LOL 35 NNW OWY 50 SW MQM 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 45 W BFF 10 SE AIA 25 SW OFK 15 WSW FNB 20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 20 ESE CNM 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE MQT 25 WNW RHI 20 NW EAU 35 WNW MSP 35 N AXN 20 WSW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 40 SSW CLL 55 N CLL 40 W TXK 10 NNE HOT 30 ENE PBF 50 ENE MLU 30 S HEZ 10 NNE MSY 25 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 SSE ATL 30 NE AGS 30 SE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN MOIST PLUME EXTENDING FROM NRN AZ...ACROSS UT INTO WRN CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST AS MAIN CONVEYOR IS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...200-400 J/KG MLCAPE...REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS BENEATH STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS. IN FACT...42KT WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED AT EGE AT 19Z INVOF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS UT INTO WRN CO WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL FARTHER WEST BENEATH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. ...EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD DEPICTS WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CONFLUENT ZONE ALONG THE SABINE RIVER OF SERN TX/WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG FROM SWRN LA...NWWD TO NEAR VERY WEAK SFC LOW NEAR LFK. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR LCH...PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BY TRAJECTORIES OFF NRN GULF. LATEST THINKING IS VERTICAL PROFILES WILL NOT SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 00:51:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 19:51:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509280051.j8S0pObA015441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280049 SWODY1 SPC AC 280047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE SOW 65 NE PHX 50 E IGM 60 E LAS 10 N TPH 35 NW U31 35 NW EKO 45 S TWF 30 NW MLD 15 W WEY 30 NNW LVM 40 NW 3HT 10 WSW LWT 60 WSW MLS 40 SW 4BQ 45 WNW CDR 25 E AIA 30 E MHN 15 WSW OFK 40 WNW OMA 20 SSW FNB 30 E EMP 30 N END 50 W GAG 30 NW TCC 10 NNE 4CR 40 NW TCS 55 SE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE MQT 40 W MQT 55 W RHI 65 NNE MSP 35 NNE BRD 35 NW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW GLS 40 WNW BPT LFK 35 SSE GGG 35 SE SHV 15 WNW ESF 15 E LFT 45 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 25 NW DHN 20 NNE ABY 10 S SSI 30 SE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... SRN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE WAS TRANSLATING ACROSS NV THIS EVENING WITH WEAK PHASING INTO THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS SINKING SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL WARM CONVEYER BELTS HAVE EVOLVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUING AS UPPER FORCING SPREADS EWD INTO THE PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE. PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF SWLY H5 FLOW HAS AIDED IN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY. ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS HAVE FAVORED WCNTRL-CNTRL CO WHERE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCURRED TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. DOWNSTREAM...LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE PRIMARY WLYS DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING...REACHING A WI...IA...NRN KS LINE BY 12Z. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WAS CAPPED PER THE 00Z SOUNDINGS...BUT CONTINUED MOISTENING...VIA ASCENT AND ADVECTION OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALOFT OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND NEB. SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE...BUT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. ..RACY.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 12:29:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 07:29:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509281228.j8SCSX2k023915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281225 SWODY1 SPC AC 281224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE SHV 25 SSW TYR 20 SSE DAL 10 WSW DUA 35 SW MKO 35 N CNU 20 ESE MKC JEF 45 ESE TBN 55 ENE LIT 15 ESE SHV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 65 WNW SAD 40 N IGM 35 NNW SGU 50 SE U24 20 ENE EGE 15 ENE COS 15 NW LAA 40 NNE GCK 25 E HLC 45 ESE HSI 10 N SUX 15 N SPW 45 SSE RST 45 SE MBL 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 20 SW MSS 30 N GSO 40 ENE CLT 30 NE FLO ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 25 NW COT 65 NE P07 40 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...... ...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S... A VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH SWEEPS RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL U.S. REACHING GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THU. A STRONG PUSH OF POLAR AIR IS SPREADING SEWD WITH THE COLD FRONT AT 12Z EXTENDING FROM SERN MN SWWD ACROSS SWRN IA THEN WWD INTO ERN CO. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY SE TODAY EXTENDING FROM NEAR STL SWWD ACROSS NWRN AR INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AM FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD WITH THE FRONT CATCHING UP WITH IT BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT NWD THRU OK INTO ERN KS. THIS CONTINUES TO FUEL ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AIDED BY A 40KT LLJ. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THRU THE 90S ACROSS TX INTO SRN OK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON FROM ERN OK SWWD INTO N TX WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REQUIRE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR HEATING TO WEAKEN CIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE NRN PORTION OF RISK AREA. MODELS ALL HAVE A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK/WRN OK/SWRN MO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SWD INTO NERN TX/LA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AND THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRE-FRONTAL INITIATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE RISK AREA...HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS OF 30-35DEG F....IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED WIND THREAT PROVIDED BY THE STRONG FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...S FL... WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING EWD ACROSS S FL TODAY. WITH LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7C/KM AND MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...SRN ROCKIES REGION... UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING SEWD WILL STALL ALONG UT/AZ BORDER TODAY. SWLY FLOW AROUND LOW CONTINUING TO DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS ERN AZ/NM. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN VICINITY AND E OF UPPER LOW. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 16:35:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 11:35:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509281634.j8SGYnBk005508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281632 SWODY1 SPC AC 281630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SHV 50 WNW LFK 25 SSW DAL 25 W DUA 30 E TUL 45 NE CNU 45 NE SZL 15 SE CMI 25 N EVV 20 SW ARG 20 ESE SHV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 15 NNE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 50 ENE PHX 40 N IGM 35 NNW SGU 50 ESE U24 30 WNW 4FC 20 N COS 15 SE LHX 50 N EHA 25 E DDC 15 NE HUT 35 NW TOP 55 NW LWD 40 SW LSE 80 NNE MQT ...CONT... 10 NE MSS 25 NW HGR 30 N HKY 40 S CLT 30 ESE ILM ...CONT... 20 W MFE 25 NW COT 65 NE P07 40 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES E/SE INTO THE OH VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ...LEAVING OLD UPR LOW ADRIFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS IMPULSE SHOULD REACH AN APN/HUF/CGI/LIT/ DFW/MAF LINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS/LWR MS VLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. ...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ORIENTED NNE/SSW ACROSS SRN KS/OK AND NW TX...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING S INTO THE SRN PLNS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SE AND IS EVENTUALLY OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS TX AND SRN/ERN OK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP...WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG FROM ERN OK SW INTO TX. SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND NEWD INTO NRN AR AND CNTRL/SRN MO. STRONG ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING E ON SRN FRINGE OF PLNS SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MOST OF SLIGHT RISK REGION CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RAISES DOUBT AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE- BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT COMBINATION OF FRONTAL UPLIFT AND UNUSUALLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG IMMEDIATE FRONT/TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...MOST LIKELY IN NRN PART OF RISK AREA. DEVELOPMENT MAY THEN OCCUR SWD ALONG FRONT/TROUGH INTO NE TX THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT... AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WIND AND HAIL IF SURFACE-BASED TSTMS DO FORM /HIGH CAPE COUPLED WITH LARGE SUB CLOUD LAYER T-TD SPREADS/ ...A SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED. CONSIDERABLE POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER AR/SE OK AND NE TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY SEWD INTO NW LA. ...SRN/CNTRL FL... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ON WRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX LOW LATITUDE UPR LOW CENTERED E OF PBI. MIA MORNING RAOB...WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM AND PW CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF S FL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WIND PROFILES ATTM SHOW WEAK ESELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM /ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ERN GULF/ VEERING TO 20 KTS SWLY AT MID LEVELS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WIND FIELD...AND WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY STORMS. SOME OF WHICH MAY WEAKLY ROTATE...MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND YIELD WET MICROBURSTS/HAIL. ...SRN RCKYS/FOUR CORNERS... UT UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE INTO NRN AZ TODAY. SW FLOW AROUND LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE NE ACROSS ERN AZ/NM...AND WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION. COMBINATION OF 35+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...PWS CLOSE TO 1 INCH AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY SE OF LOW INTO NW/N CNTRL NM. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 19:49:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 14:49:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509281949.j8SJn8IG028797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281946 SWODY1 SPC AC 281945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SHV 10 W GGG 25 E DAL 10 NE DUA 35 NW PGO UMN 35 E SGF UNO 50 W ARG 20 WSW LIT 40 NE SHV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW MFE 25 NW COT 65 NE P07 35 S ELP ...CONT... 65 WSW FHU 50 ENE PHX 40 N IGM 35 ENE P38 45 WSW PUC 30 WNW 4FC 20 N COS 10 SSE LHX 35 S DHT 25 NE PVW 40 S LTS 35 S OKC 10 SSW CNU 25 SW SZL 40 SE UIN 25 NNE BMI 20 W MKG 20 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE MSS 25 NW HGR 30 N HKY 40 S CLT 45 ESE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MO TO NERN TX... ...MO TO NERN TX... SFC PRESSURES ARE RISING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH HAVE FORCED A WIND SHIFT DEEP INTO OK AND NWRN TX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN TX INTO WRN AR ALLOWING STEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. SHALLOW CONVECTION IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN OK...BUT IS STRUGGLING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A FEW HOURS. ONE PARTICULAR PROBLEM IS THE SLOPE OF THE FRONT AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WIND SHIFT. IF THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM IN AN ELEVATED FASHION...THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM THERMAL PROFILES. HOWEVER...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN EVOLVE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NERN TX INTO WRN AR...AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN MO. OTHER CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THIS REGION WILL BE IMPEDED BY POOR LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. ...ELSEWHERE... AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...WITH STORM MERGERS AND PROPAGATIONAL AFFECTS FORCING CONVECTION INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...INTENSITY AND DURATION OF ANY PARTICULAR EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER WEST...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION...ESPECIALLY NM. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEPER MOIST PLUME WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. REF SWOMCD 2288. ..DARROW.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 00:58:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 19:58:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509290057.j8T0vlZr024376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290055 SWODY1 SPC AC 290054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SHV TYR 35 NNE DAL 30 WSW PGO 25 ENE PGO 20 S MVN EVV 30 NW HOP MKL GLH SHV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ART LBE 40 SE LOZ 55 NNW AHN 45 ESE ILM ...CONT... 20 SSE CRP 15 WSW ALI 35 NNE DRT 60 WSW MRF ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU 35 N SAD GUP GJT EGE 30 S 4FC 40 SW COS RTN 35 S DHT HOB BGS ABI 35 WSW MLC 55 NW POF MTO 15 NW SBN HTL 45 NNE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH VALLEY TO NE TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH 29/12Z...WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING SEWD OVER MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...ARKLATEX REGION AND CENTRAL/WRN TX. ...MID MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX AREA... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...INCLUDING PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EVIDENT FROM WRN AR SWWD ACROSS DFW METROPLEX AS OF 00Z. REF SPC WWS 822...823...RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM FCST INFORMATION. ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY AIDED BY DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- ESPECIALLY OVER N-CENTRAL/NE TX -- AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. MODIFIED 00Z FWD RAOB SUGGEST JUST A FEW DEG C COOLING...WHETHER DIABATICALLY OR FROM POSTFRONTAL CAA...IS NEEDED TO REMOVE NEARLY ALL SBCAPE GIVEN DEEPLY HEATED/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER JUST BENEATH 500 MB LEVEL. FARTHER NE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE BEFORE 29/06Z...IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL OF MAINLY MARGINAL SEVERITY. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STILL FARTHER NE ACROSS OH VALLEY AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH GEN TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT REGION. ...NM... DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH HAIL AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AS SHOWN IN ABQ RAOB SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...HOWEVER SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. ..EDWARDS.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 05:46:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 00:46:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509290546.j8T5kNj8009236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290544 SWODY1 SPC AC 290543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 40 WNW SAD PGA 45 SSE VEL 35 ESE CAG DEN LHX 40 ENE CVS INK 65 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW LRD 45 WSW TPL GGG TUP TYS BLF 40 N SHD ITH 40 NE UCA MPV EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH UPCOMING DAY-1 PERIOD AS INTENSE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LH SWWD ACROSS WRN KY...SRN AR AND W TX -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE SURGING SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EWD OVER MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- IS FCST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EJECT EWD ACROSS ERN ROCKIES INTO DAY-2. ...NERN CONUS... PRIND LOW-TOPPED...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS..SUPERIMPOSED ON ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE FCST DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD -- SHIFTING FROM MID ATLANTIC EARLY-MID MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY IS FCST TO BE MINIMAL OVER MOST OF REGION...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG...HOWEVER ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MAUL -- MOIST ABSOLUTELY-UNSTABLE LAYER -- TO DEVELOP IN ERN NY AND SHIFT EWD FOR A FEW HOURS OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND. ...NM AND SMALL PARTS OF ADJACENT 4-CORNERS STATES... ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMBINATION OF OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC COOLING DIMINISH CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST UNDER COLD CORE REGION OF LOW. FARTHER SE...LOW LEVEL ELY AND SLY WINDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH WRN PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE AND LOCALLY MODIFIED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NM. IN COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX S AND SE OF LOW...THIS ALSO WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO ROTATE AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM IS THERMODYNAMIC -- MARGINAL MOISTURE AND LACK OF MORE VIGOROUS HEATING. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 05:46:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 00:46:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509290547.j8T5lQ8f009654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290544 SWODY1 SPC AC 290543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 40 WNW SAD PGA 45 SSE VEL 35 ESE CAG DEN LHX 40 ENE CVS INK 65 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW LRD 45 WSW TPL GGG TUP TYS BLF 40 N SHD ITH 40 NE UCA MPV EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH UPCOMING DAY-1 PERIOD AS INTENSE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LH SWWD ACROSS WRN KY...SRN AR AND W TX -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE SURGING SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EWD OVER MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- IS FCST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EJECT EWD ACROSS ERN ROCKIES INTO DAY-2. ...NERN CONUS... PRIND LOW-TOPPED...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS..SUPERIMPOSED ON ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE FCST DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD -- SHIFTING FROM MID ATLANTIC EARLY-MID MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY IS FCST TO BE MINIMAL OVER MOST OF REGION...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG...HOWEVER ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MAUL -- MOIST ABSOLUTELY-UNSTABLE LAYER -- TO DEVELOP IN ERN NY AND SHIFT EWD FOR A FEW HOURS OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND. ...NM AND SMALL PARTS OF ADJACENT 4-CORNERS STATES... ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMBINATION OF OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC COOLING DIMINISH CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST UNDER COLD CORE REGION OF LOW. FARTHER SE...LOW LEVEL ELY AND SLY WINDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH WRN PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE AND LOCALLY MODIFIED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NM. IN COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX S AND SE OF LOW...THIS ALSO WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO ROTATE AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM IS THERMODYNAMIC -- MARGINAL MOISTURE AND LACK OF MORE VIGOROUS HEATING. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 10:56:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 05:56:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509291055.j8TAtvtK023448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291053 SWODY1 SPC AC 291051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE NEL 25 SE BWI 15 W DCA 35 SSW MRB 50 E MGW 25 SSW DUJ 30 NNE BFD 50 WSW ART ...CONT... 55 N BML 20 NW BGR 35 S EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW 3B1 45 NE 3B1 45 SSE HUL ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 35 NNW HDO 30 SE ACT 15 N UOX 65 W LOZ 15 WSW UNI YNG 35 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DUG 40 NE TUS 50 SSW INW 15 SSE PGA U28 55 ESE VEL 45 E CAG 10 E DEN 35 N LHX CAO 15 NE CVS 40 WNW HOB 25 NNE GDP 40 SSE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. THE NARROW LINE OF STORMS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A FOCUSED BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FINE-LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT BINGHAMTON NY CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING WITH 70 KT AT 3 KM AND 50 KT BELOW 1 KM. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F NEAR LONG ISLAND WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT NWD INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN ME...VT...NH...MA AND RI SUGGESTING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT...THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL CREATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL...THE STRONG SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY IF INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY OR MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 16:28:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 11:28:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509291628.j8TGSGGo006285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291623 SWODY1 SPC AC 291622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 20 N JFK 10 SW POU 10 WNW PSF 15 NNE RUT 15 NW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DRT 45 NW SAT 40 NE CLL 25 NW JAN 30 ESE RMG 25 NW GSO 10 NNW DCA 20 WSW ALB 20 N PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 70 WNW SAD 20 NNW INW 15 ESE U17 25 ESE CNY 15 SSE ASE 35 W COS 25 NW PUB 25 SW RTN 50 NW TCC 20 WNW AMA 10 SSE PVW 45 ENE HOB 65 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ECG... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS SHOULD CONTINUE NE ACROSS THE LWR ST LAWRENCE VLY AND DEAMPLIFY LATER TODAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. FARTHER S...FOUR CORNERS UPR LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY E... REACHING N CNTRL/NE NM BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...NEW ENG... NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NEW ENG TODAY...JUST AHEAD OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RECENT LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. HEATING...HOWEVER...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OVER SRN AND ERN PARTS OF NEW ECG THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF UPDRAFT STRENGTH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DYNAMIC. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD /ILLUSTRATED BY 70 KT LLJ AT BTV/ AND PERSISTENCE OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION...POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR/DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ...SRN ROCKIES... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...BUT COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WILL CREATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN AND CNTRL NM SHOW MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. WHILE NOT EXCEPTIONAL...COUPLED WITH 50+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OR MID-EVENING. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 19:50:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 14:50:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509291949.j8TJnUtL005188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291947 SWODY1 SPC AC 291945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW BID 10 SSW PVD 10 W BOS 25 WSW PWM 30 ESE BML 85 WNW CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DRT 10 S SAT 10 WNW HOU 30 NNE MSY 10 W LGC 25 WSW DAN 20 S BWI 20 SSW EWR 15 NE BDR 45 NNE EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE FHU 70 WNW SAD 20 NNW INW 15 ESE U17 25 ESE CNY 15 SSE ASE 35 W COS 25 NW PUB 15 NE RTN 10 SSE CAO 20 WNW AMA 10 SSE PVW 45 ENE HOB 70 SSE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGLY FORCED...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE HAS INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN ME INTO ERN MA/ERN CT AND RI. ABSENCE OF ANY OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HAS LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...DESPITE A SLOW INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /PER REGIONAL VWPS/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN ROCKIES... LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NM COUPLED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS HAVE RESULTED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM SWRN CO INTO W-CNTRL NM...WITHIN REGION OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. GIVEN PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG 45-55 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS /PER ABQ VWP/ ACROSS AREA...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 30 00:52:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 19:52:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509300052.j8U0ploo004889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300049 SWODY1 SPC AC 300047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBB ALM 55 NE SAD GUP 55 WSW MTJ ASE COS PUB TAD 35 NNE CAO EHA 60 SW GAG LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT COT VCT HOU LCH LFT GPT MCN 45 SSW CLT 50 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM PATTERN IS IN TRANSITION TO ZONAL ORIENTATION AS MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIME. FARTHER SW...MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN CUT-OFF AND QUASISTATIONARY ABOUT THE 4-CORNERS REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS...HAS BEGUN TO EJECT EWD BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. CENTER OF THIS CYCLONE SHOULD REACH RATON MESA AREA BY 30/12Z. NERN CONUS SEGMENT OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF FORCED-ASCENT CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO CG LIGHTNING...HAS MOVED E OF DOWNEAST MAINE AND NO LONGER IS A FACTOR IN THIS OUTLOOK. FARTHER SW...FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CAROLINAS/GA...ACCOMPANIED AND PRECEDED BY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS. FRONT IS MOVING OFF LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST AND SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY TONIGHT OVER DEEP S TX...AS WA REGIME COMMENCES FARTHER NW IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...NM... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NM EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SRN PORTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS MOVING INTO SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX. MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND LOW LEVEL SLYS/ELYS COMBINE TO YIELD WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NM PER VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS NEAR SFC HAVE PEAKED AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...A TREND DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND LOCALLY BY EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THEREFORE ANY REMAINING SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL AND BRIEF. ..EDWARDS.. 09/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.