[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281620
SWODY1
SPC AC 281618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
AUO 10 NNW GZH 50 SSE MEI 25 NE MEI 10 S CBM 15 WSW MSL 45 N HSV 10
NNE CHA 15 W ATL 25 SSW AUO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
HUM 20 S TUP 20 NW HOP 35 WNW IND 30 SSE SBN 35 SW JXN 50 WNW CLE 10
NNE ZZV 25 WNW CRW 20 NNW AVL 50 NE MGR 45 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE ROC 35 SSW ROC
20 E AOO 15 W RIC GSB 35 SE ILM ...CONT... 60 SSW HUM 40 NE JAN 15
NNW PAH 15 S DEC 30 E MLI 25 NNW ALO 40 W EAU 75 NNE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE VRB 35 WSW APF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF AL PARTS OF MID TN AND
NWRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NWD
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
IA TODAY REACHING INTO NRN WI BY TUE AM.  VERY STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY WILL
SHIFT N AND E THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE CURRENTLY FROM WRN IND SSWWD INTO ERN
MS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE IA SURFACE LOW SWD
VICINITY STL AND THEN TO SRN LA.

...AL INTO MID TN AND WRN GA...
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MUCAPES UPWARDS TO  2000
J/K SRN AL... AS SURFACE HEATING PUSHES THE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
AT 15Z WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE MID/UPPER 60S.  GIVEN THE
SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT AND HELICITIES FROM 400-500 M2/S2 AS NOTED
ON THE BMX VAD WINDS AND LITTLE REMAINING CIN...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INSTABILITY LINE.  POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS WARM SECTOR IN AL INTO WRN GA AND
MIDDLE TN.

ADDITIONALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD FAVOR BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THESE
STORMS AND GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY
THREAT.

...OH VALLEY...

ALTHOUGH LESS INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS OH
VALLEY...THE VERY STRONG SHEAR COUPLED WITH MUCAPES UPWARD TO 500
J/KG MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL REQUIRE THE STRONG QG FORCING UNDER
THE INTENSE UPPER JET TO PROMOTE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY MODE WILL BE LINEAR WITH
BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH BOW VORTICES.

BY EVENING AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN OH
VALLEY SWD INTO ERN AL/GA WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

..HALES/GUYER.. 11/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM