[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241252
SWODY1
SPC AC 241251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX
15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO 15 E BEH 40 SW MKG 30 ESE MTW 50 NE GRB 20
ENE MQT 130 NE MQT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 10 SW SLK 45 W GFL 20 NW
ITH 45 NE BFD 25 NW PIT 20 ENE MFD 25 S DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S ISP 10 N PVD 65
SE PWM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POLAR VORT HAS DROPPED SSE TO NEAR KSSM AND WILL CONTINUE ESE TO LK
ONTARIO LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VLY
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E/SE
OFF THE ERN SEABOARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT.

UPR LOW NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND REACH
NW MEXICO AS A DEAMPLIFYING WAVE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

...GRT LKS...
SCATTERED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN/WRN NY AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NW PA/NE OH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER EXPECTED OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS MIXED LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 600 MB AND
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES IN COLD AIR /MODIFIED MUCAPE AROUND
750 J PER KG/. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE ERN
SHORELINES OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS MIXED LAYER WIND BACKS TO W OR
WSWLY. DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER AND STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW WITHIN THE LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO
PERSISTENT PLUMES WITH AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

FARTHER W/N...VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH CONVECTIVE PLUMES AND LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONTINUING
UPSTREAM OVER MI/NERN WI.  CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION SHOULD ALSO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY LATER IN THE DAY.

...CAPE COD...
AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING POLAR VORT
MAY YIELD ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF FAR SRN/ERN
NEW ENGLAND.

...SRN AZ...
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING BAJA LOW
SHOULD TRACK S OF THE MEXICAN BORDER ACROSS NRN SONORA.  GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AT THE SURFACE OR
ALOFT...EXPECT THAT ANY ELEVATED AND/OR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER
AZ WILL REMAIN TOO FEEBLE TO PRODUCE THUNDER.

...RED RIVER VLY TX/OK...
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AS BAJA
SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD.  WARM ADVECTION IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A C-G STRIKE OR TWO
OVER THE RED RIVER VLY AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND COMPARATIVE WEAKNESS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUGGEST
THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM