[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 171630
SWODY1
SPC AC 171629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

DOWNSTREAM OF BLOCK IN UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
...STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES CONVERGE INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WHICH NOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. 
PRIMARY EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW... HOWEVER
..CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...NOW
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...FLORIDA...
WIND SHIFT/SHALLOW COLD FRONTAL SURGE HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS AND THE KEYS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA.  THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE FRONT REMAINS MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE... RELATIVELY WARM
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS.

...GREAT LAKES...
CORE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
STILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK/SPARSE IN
COVERAGE AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

..KERR.. 11/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.