[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040551
SWODY1
SPC AC 040549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 30 SE SEA
30 NW PDX 60 SW AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JXN 15 S MTC
30 SSW ERI 10 WSW PIT 30 NNW HTS LEX 20 NW BWG 25 ENE PAH 35 SW SPI
25 S PIA 25 SSW MMO 25 WSW JXN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH FAST WESTERLY UPPER FLOW PREVALENT. AS SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...COLD FRONT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...NEXT IN SERIES
OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

...OHIO VALLEY...
AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MUCH TOO DRY/CAPPED DURING THE DAY TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER MODEST TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE POST-00Z ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH GRADUAL
NEWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY/EVENING...WRN
GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH 00Z BASED DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE LARGELY
DRY...21Z SREF MEMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW-END TSTM COVERAGE.
MODEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY -- GENERALLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE OR LESS
PER 00Z NAM/21Z NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
UPPER TROUGH /CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND 135W/
IS FORECAST TO REACH WRN WA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING 500 MB TEMPS /AROUND
-30C/ MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE WA COASTAL
RANGE/PUGET SOUND VICINITY.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 11/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.