From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 01:00:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 20:00:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511010101.jA1115pm017737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010058 SWODY1 SPC AC 010057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LRD 40 SSW SAT 55 N VCT 35 E UTS 20 S SHV 25 SW ELD 40 N MLU 50 E MLU 10 NE PIB 55 E BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 30 ESE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX AND SWRN LA... THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN TX EARLY THIS EVENING. LINEAR MCS HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN LA AND TX AT 01Z. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND THE SEVERE THREATS ARE RAPIDLY DECLINING ACROSS SWRN LA AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. FARTHER S...THE SWRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE WAS BACKBUILDING WWD ALONG THE COAST VCNTY KCRP. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A SMALL WARM SECTOR PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATED FROM KCRP WWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. BUT...THE 00Z KBRO RAOB SUGGESTS THAT A SUBSTANTIAL CAP EXISTS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER. GIVEN THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UVV/COOLING ALOFT ARE PASSING JUST N OF DEEP S TX...TSTMS SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME BEING MAINTAINED. AS SUCH...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL/ISOLD AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGION FROM PORT MANSFIELD NWD. ..RACY.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 05:52:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 00:52:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511010552.jA15qJbP005690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010548 SWODY1 SPC AC 010546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI 15 ENE PDX 40 NNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 10 NNW BTR 35 SSW JAN 10 N GZH 45 NNW GNV 45 ENE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... DIFFUSE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CUBA/BAHAMAS WILL REDEVELOP INTO SRN FL TUE AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN FL TUE AFTN IN THE ACCELERATING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INFLUX OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS SRN FL THROUGH THE AFTN. ONE OR TWO STRONG TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THOUGH MEAGER LAPSE RATES/CLOUDS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL THERMAL BUOYANCY. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AGAIN VERY LATE TUE/EARLY WED ACROSS THE KEYS AND SWRN FL AS THE MAIN TROUGH WITHIN THE POLAR WLYS APPROACHES THE ERN GULF BASIN. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 12:41:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 07:41:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511011241.jA1CfcDS001823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011239 SWODY1 SPC AC 011238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI 15 ENE PDX 40 NNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW HUM 35 ENE MCB 10 SW MEI 10 SSW SEM 25 SW ABY 45 SE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM WESTERN AL INTO EASTERN LA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WERE PRESENT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH ONLY MINIMAL AFTERNOON HEATING. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...WHERE TROPICAL AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS AREA...SUGGESTING ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE TIED TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND WOULD BE BRIEF. THEREFORE...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION TODAY. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 16:45:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 11:45:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511011645.jA1GjO30015177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011619 SWODY1 SPC AC 011618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI PDX 45 W ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S HUM 40 N ASD 50 SSE MEI 15 N GZH 15 ENE MGR 45 NE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MONDAYS SRN PLAINS DIGGING TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM ERN AL SWWD INTO GULF WITH BOTH FRONT AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LACK OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT ERN GULF COAST AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM. TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN FL AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SRN HALF OF PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER REDUCING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY SERN FL SEA BREEZE FRONT. ..HALES/LEVIT.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 20:55:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 15:55:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511012055.jA1Kttsu029879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011953 SWODY1 SPC AC 011952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI PDX 45 W ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW AAF 25 NE MAI 10 NNE CSG 20 W MCN 15 ENE MGR 45 NE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... BIMODAL ASCENT PLUMES ARE CONVERGING ON THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN UPSTREAM BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WITH A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY TRAILS INTO THE NERN GULF WHERE NEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SECONDARY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT PLUME OF ASCENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...SWWD INTO THE FL STRAITS. HIGHER INSTABILITY IS NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS CONVECTION MAY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS UPSTREAM TROUGH AFFECTS NRN FL LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...PACIFIC NW... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND SECONDARY ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SHALLOW...HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY MARINE LAYER INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 01:01:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 20:01:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511020102.jA2123FZ026775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020059 SWODY1 SPC AC 020058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI PDX 45 W ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S SRQ 25 NE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... PRIMARY SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED/MOVED ACROSS THE SWRN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CNTRL FL. A SWD ACCELERATION IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW...NOW MOVING ASHORE SWRN FL...MOVES NEWD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A BELT OF HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS CONTINUES TO EXIST. INSTABILITY WAS RATHER WEAK...THOUGH...OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES /MLCAPES AOB 1000 J PER KG/. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP...THOUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF COAST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE GLANCES THE PLUME OF HIGH THETA-E. ...PAC NW... LEAD PORTION OF AN UPPER IMPULSE HAS MOVED INTO ERN WA WITH A TRAILING VORT MAX MOVING ASHORE WRN WA AT 01Z. EVENING KUIL SOUNDING SUGGESTED THAT CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE VERY NEAR MINUS 20 DEGREES C. PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY DISTURBANCE/UVV MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE CLOUD TOPS INTO THE FAVORABLE RANGE FOR ISOLD LIGHTNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 05:55:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 00:55:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511020555.jA25tNkN021046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020550 SWODY1 SPC AC 020549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BNO 25 W MYL 10 SSE LVM 50 SSW COD 50 NE EVW 20 S SLC 20 WSW U31 RNO 30 S AAT 45 SSW BNO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON WED. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVING OFF THE WA/ORE COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN GRT BASIN BY WED AFTN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AGITATE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS AND OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY MOISTEN PROFILES ENOUGH FOR ISOLD AFTN-EVE TSTMS. ...SRN FL... THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SRN FL AT 06Z WILL BE LOCATED OFFSHORE BY 12Z WED. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AS NNELY FLOW INCREASES IN WAKE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTING INTO THE SWRN ATLANTIC BASIN. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DOWNWARD MOTION WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 12:41:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 07:41:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511021241.jA2CfS2a027100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021239 SWODY1 SPC AC 021237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BNO 25 W MYL 10 SSE LVM 50 SSW COD 50 NE EVW 20 S SLC 20 WSW U31 RNO 30 S AAT 45 SSW BNO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING RATHER STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM NORTHERN NV INTO WESTERN MT BY THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT UPPER COOLING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD FROM ID/NORTHERN UT INTO PARTS OF MT/WY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. ...SOUTH FL... PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...ALLOWING DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LAND/SEA INTERACTIONS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FL LATER TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 16:21:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 11:21:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511021621.jA2GLO3S004145@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021605 SWODY1 SPC AC 021603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CLM OLM 20 WSW PDX 10 NNW EUG 45 NW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... BROAD ZONE OF ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BE RATHER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ALONG THE PAC NW COAST...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH EVEN MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN WAKE OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST AS 0 TO -2C SFC-H7 LI/S DEVELOP. ..EVANS.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 19:49:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 14:49:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511021949.jA2JnIFb003860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021947 SWODY1 SPC AC 021945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW BLI OLM 35 SE SLE 30 S MFR 75 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE EWD ONTO THE NRN CA COAST WITH ATTENDANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN ORE. TO THE W...A TENDENCY FOR LESS CLOUDINESS AND RESULTANT STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ WITHIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST E OF SURFACE FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS ENHANCED. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS FAR E AS ID/NV WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF GENERAL THUNDER FARTHER INLAND. ..MEAD.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 00:44:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 19:44:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511030044.jA30i3jR010579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030041 SWODY1 SPC AC 030039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SCK 25 SW SAC 15 ESE RBL 45 SE MHS 75 ENE RBL 45 NW TVL 50 SSW TVL 15 NNE MER 35 S SCK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS MOST OF CONUS...N OF RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER NWRN GULF. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF PACIFIC COAST FROM NRN CA TO WA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 03Z. TROUGH SHOULD REACH NRN ROCKIES AND SRN GREAT BASIN REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD. ...NRN CA... ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF TROUGH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS... MAINLY ACROSS SAC VALLEY AND NRN FOOTHILLS OF SIERRA NV OF CA. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK SBCIN...MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL THETAE...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT ASSOCIATED MLCAPES -- NOW INDICATED TO BE AS MUCH AS 100-200 J/KG OVER PORTIONS SAC VALLEY -- TO DIMINISH WITH TIME THERE AS TROUGH PASSES AND BOTH SFC AND MIDLEVELS STABILIZE. ...REMAINDER WRN CONUS... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER BETWEEN PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH 12Z...AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND POCKETS OF VERY WEAK AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY DEVELOP. LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITS OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER AND PRECLUDES GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 05:50:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 00:50:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511030550.jA35o6dt002802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030541 SWODY1 SPC AC 030540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 W YKM 45 SE EUG 35 W 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ...PAC NW COAST... VORT MAX NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS PERIOD. COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON /-26 TO -28 C/ SHOULD SUPPORT MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. GREATEST THREAT FOR LIGHTNING SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OLYMPICS AND COASTAL RANGES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 12:39:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 07:39:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511031239.jA3CdNob015415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031233 SWODY1 SPC AC 031231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 W YKM 45 SE EUG 35 W 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NATION TODAY...WITH SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN STATES. VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 16:07:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 11:07:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511031607.jA3G79S5005227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031551 SWODY1 SPC AC 031549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0949 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULTING IN A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PACIFIC NW...MOIST STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO GIVEN NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE DEPTH OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND INHIBIT MOST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ..IMY.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 19:42:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 14:42:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511031942.jA3Jg9vN014459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031936 SWODY1 SPC AC 031934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW COAST... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WITH A DOWNSTREAM REGION OF IMPLIED ASCENT OVER WRN AND CNTRL WA/ORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF ASCENT HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 40S W OF THE CASCADE RANGE. AS A RESULT...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS NEUTRAL OR STABLE FOR BOTH SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED PARCELS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ..MEAD.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 00:43:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 19:43:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511040043.jA40hEvr030963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040040 SWODY1 SPC AC 040039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICTS LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH EWD TRANSITION OF THESE FEATURES...LIMITED BUOYANCY PER REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN MEAGER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRIKES COULD YET OCCUR INVOF THE OLYMPIC MTNS OR WA/ORE COASTAL RANGE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 05:53:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 00:53:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511040553.jA45r0lv007422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040551 SWODY1 SPC AC 040549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 30 SE SEA 30 NW PDX 60 SW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JXN 15 S MTC 30 SSW ERI 10 WSW PIT 30 NNW HTS LEX 20 NW BWG 25 ENE PAH 35 SW SPI 25 S PIA 25 SSW MMO 25 WSW JXN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST WESTERLY UPPER FLOW PREVALENT. AS SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...COLD FRONT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...NEXT IN SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. ...OHIO VALLEY... AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MUCH TOO DRY/CAPPED DURING THE DAY TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER MODEST TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE POST-00Z ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH GRADUAL NEWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY/EVENING...WRN GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH 00Z BASED DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE LARGELY DRY...21Z SREF MEMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW-END TSTM COVERAGE. MODEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY -- GENERALLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE OR LESS PER 00Z NAM/21Z NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... UPPER TROUGH /CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND 135W/ IS FORECAST TO REACH WRN WA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING 500 MB TEMPS /AROUND -30C/ MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE WA COASTAL RANGE/PUGET SOUND VICINITY. ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 12:54:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 07:54:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511041254.jA4CskbT007505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041252 SWODY1 SPC AC 041250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 30 SE SEA 30 NW PDX 60 SW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JXN 15 S MTC 30 SSW ERI 10 WSW PIT 30 NNW HTS LEX 20 NW BWG 25 ENE PAH 35 SW SPI 25 S PIA 25 SSW MMO 25 WSW JXN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST... BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WAS EVIDENT FROM THE WRN GULF COAST TO THE GRTLKS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS WAVE WILL EJECT INTO CANADA TODAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT SLOWING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE...EVIDENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AT 13Z...WILL MIGRATE NEWD AND APPROACH THE OH VLY/MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE AGAIN TONIGHT AND ADVECT MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. UVV AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK ELEVATED THERMAL BUOYANCY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TSTM PROBABILITIES. ...PAC NW... SATL AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE CONSIDERABLE OPEN-CELL CUMULUS/LIGHTNING OFFSHORE WA/ORE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 130W. AS THIS TROUGH /H5 TEMP AOB MINUS 30 DEGREES C/ ROTATES ACROSS THE PAC NW...A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY COASTAL WA/ORE. ..RACY/BRIGHT.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 16:35:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 11:35:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511041635.jA4GZZUs012584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041629 SWODY1 SPC AC 041627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BLI 45 SSE SEA 25 SW PDX 10 ENE ONP 55 WSW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW COAST... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE WA COAST. AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/-30C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET SPREAD EWD INTO THE PAC NW...SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN PREVALENT. ...MID WEST... AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITHIN BROAD SWLY FLOW EVIDENT OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS MORNING WITH PW/S AOB 0.75 INCHES NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. THOUGH DEEP ASCENT WILL INCREASE INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF EJECTING UPPER LEVEL JET...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TOO LOW THROUGH 12Z TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 19:40:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 14:40:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511041940.jA4JeVK3025362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041938 SWODY1 SPC AC 041936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BLI 45 SSE SEA 25 SW PDX 10 ENE ONP 55 WSW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW COAST... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COASTS. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-28 TO -30 C AT 500 MB/ COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT AND TODAY OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. WHILE A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND RESULTANT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE COAST TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. ..MEAD.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 00:51:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 19:51:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511050051.jA50pqO5012745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050049 SWODY1 SPC AC 050048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI SEA OLM 40 W AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH UPPER JET STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS PERIOD...BUT THUNDER CHANCES HERE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OUT OF NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHEN...EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO SRN KS BY MORNING. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...SLY FLOW AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL EXIST...WEAK FORCING AND EXISTENCE OF DRY CAPPING LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MID MS OR OH VALLEYS. ..JEWELL.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 05:54:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 00:54:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511050554.jA55s6iR016985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050552 SWODY1 SPC AC 050550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI CMH BWG MKL MEM BVX HRO SGF COU UIN MKG 45 ESE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 35 NNE MLU 30 SW DEQ 35 SW GMJ 25 WNW LWD 40 ENE MCW 30 NE VOK GRB 45 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN LOWER MI TO NERN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... AMIDST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS. MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS TROUGH INDICATED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR PACIFIC NW ATTM. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...REACHING TO NEAR LOWER OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI REGION BY END OF PERIOD. PRONOUNCED AMPLIFICATION IS FCST...WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN SREF AND DETERMINISTIC PROGS SHAPE AND TILT OF THIS PERTURBATION BY 06/12Z. AT SFC..FRONTAL WAVE CYCLOGENESIS NOW ANALYZED OVER N-CENTRAL/NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH BEGINNING OF PERIOD THEM SHIFT NEWD...AS LOW MOVES FROM KS/OK BORDER REGION TO VICINITY NERN MO/NRN IL BY 06/00Z. CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING EXPECTED DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD INTO EARLY DAY-2...WITH PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC LOW PROBABLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI AROUND 06/12Z. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW DRAWN QUASISTATIONARY FROM SRN LM ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO NWRN OK -- SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND SWEEP SEWD OVER OK...OZARKS REGION AND WRN/NRN IL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE. MEANWHILE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA AND LOWER MI. ...GREAT LAKES TO LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... WITH MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS PATTERN COULD YIELD A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT. AS IT STANDS...SCATTERED TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL SHOULD DEVELOP MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING NEAR AND S OF SFC CYCLONE...DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT. WIDELY SCATTERED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHORT-LIVED BOW OR SUPERCELL MODES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW WITHIN FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BEFORE DEVELOPMENT OF SQUALL LINE IN SWD/DISCRETELY BACKBUILDING FASHION. CELL MOTION SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF FORCING BOUNDARY...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE THREAT LOCALLY. ANOTHER REGIME OF HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT. PRIMARY MODE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS SWD/EWD EXTENT OF ACTIVITY AWAY FROM SFC LOW...AND AS SUCH...AWAY FROM MOST INTENSE LOW LEVEL FORCING. EXAMINATION OF UPSTREAM AIR MASSES AT VARIOUS LEVELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/BUOYANT/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...BUT ALSO...STRONG CAPPING THAT SHOULD RESTRICT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. SFC...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES SAMPLE DISTINCT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME -- CONSISTING OF FORMERLY CONTINENTAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN MODIFYING OVER GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS -- AXIS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SERN LA TO ERN MS/AL. 850-700 MB ANALYSES AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD FROM MEX PLATEAU AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS MS VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CAPPING WILL RENDER TSTM AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES SMALLER AND MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT INVOF COLD FRONT. MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM OZARKS REGION NEWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA...SHIFTING INTO LOWER MI WITH WARM FROPA. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SEASONALLY STRONG SFC WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG OVER WARM SECTOR. ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE JUST N OF SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING...IN ZONE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ROUGHLY STRAIGHT LOW-MIDLEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD CHARACTERIZE MOST OF WARM SECTOR...EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY SFC CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED SFC FLOW WILL INDUCE MORE PRONOUNCED CURVATURE AND HELP TO BOOST 0-1 KM SRH TO NEAR 150 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEARS ALSO SHOULD INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...35-45 KT OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR BUT 55-65 KT INVOF WARM FRONT. EXPECT MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE TO DECLINE GRADUALLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER ABOUT 06/03Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND COOLS...ELEVATING LAYER OF OPTIMALLY BUOYANT INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 12:58:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 07:58:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511051258.jA5CwOEg023386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051255 SWODY1 SPC AC 051254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW ERI 30 NNW ZZV 55 SE LUK BWG 10 E MEM BVX HRO SGF 30 W UIN 40 SW RFD 10 SSW RQB 55 ENE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CLM 20 SW OLM 20 SW PDX 25 SW EUG 55 NW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GLD 35 SW GUC 50 SSW CAG 50 NE CAG 35 SE MHN 30 ESE BBW 40 S HSI 40 SSE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 25 ENE GGG 25 SE PRX 35 SW GMJ 25 WNW LWD 40 ENE MCW 30 NE VOK 55 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS INTO LWR MI... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WNWLY UPSTREAM JET CROSSING THE NRN GRT BASIN. THE IMPULSE SHOULD... HOWEVER...REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AND REACH THE LAKE MI AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WEAKER LEAD DISTURBANCE...NOW ENTERING WRN NEB/NW KS PER STLT...SHOULD PRECEDE MAIN IMPULSE AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY LATER TODAY. AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF RCKYS TROUGH LIKELY TO INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE MID MS VLY BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES E/NE ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY. ...MID MS/LWR OH VLY INTO LWR MI... RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE LWR TO MID MS VLY REGION THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 60 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE KSTL AND KIND AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME... EXPECT THAT STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME OVER REGION. COMBINATION OF FRONTAL UPLIFT AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM AFOREMENTIONED NEB/KS IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF IA ENE INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AND LWR MI. FARTHER S...EXPECT PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO KEEP WARM SECTOR CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...DESPITE SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING. LATE TODAY OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OVER CNTRL/ERN MO AND WRN IL IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY /1/ STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND /2/ EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS TROUGH. DEEP SWLY SHEAR ACROSS REGION WILL INCREASE TO AOA 50 KTS...AND MLCAPE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. WHILE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-LINEAR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...EXTRAPOLATION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH FROM CURRENT SATELLITE/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN W OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW DISCRETE OR QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN PARTS OF MO/IL ...WRN KY AND WRN IND GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. LATER TONIGHT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME HIGH WIND AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A MORE OR LESS SOLID SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND BOWS. DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY E/NE INTO ERN IND...LWR MI AND NW OH. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 16:28:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 11:28:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511051627.jA5GRrtg028747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051618 SWODY1 SPC AC 051616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX BWG 10 E MEM BVX 25 NNE FLP 35 WSW COU 35 SSE OTM 30 NE DBQ 40 NW MKG 15 NNW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA 15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW PUB 35 E GUC 25 NNW GUC 30 WSW EGE 35 ESE CAG 30 S LAR 20 S CYS 35 SSE IML 40 E GLD 45 NNW GCK 25 ENE LAA 20 NW PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35 ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25 NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...MID WEST... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. PRIMARY MID LEVEL JET WITH H5 WINDS FROM 75-85 KT WILL REMAIN ALONG BACK-SIDE OF THIS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL DEVELOP/SHIFT TO THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IND TONIGHT AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN KS WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO...WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW DEVELOPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY ESEWD AS LOW CENTER SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STRONGEST SHEAR OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVED MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE STRONG CAP AND RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT RISK FACTORS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG INVERSION LAYER AROUND H85 THIS MORNING AT LZK AND SGF...EXPECT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LOW CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER AS DEEP ASCENT INCREASES...EXPECT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER INTO PORTIONS OF ERN IA/IL. ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE MUCAPE WITHIN THIS REGION...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL 22Z-00Z AS CAP WEAKENS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES SHOULD ACTIVITY REMAIN SURFACE-BASED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER EVOLVE INTO OR BE OVERCOME BY SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF STEEP ASCENT PLUME DURING THE EVENING. BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/LEWP STRUCTURES WILL SUSTAIN AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT RACES EWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WIND DAMAGE COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD GIVEN SIGNIFICANT WINDS /50+ KT/ JUST OFF THE SURFACE. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THIS LINE AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT AFTER DARK MAY BE MITIGATED BY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 19:59:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 14:59:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511051959.jA5JxJ4w030052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051957 SWODY1 SPC AC 051955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 30 WSW BWG 45 WSW MEM 30 NE LIT 40 S FLP 25 WSW JEF 15 W CID 40 S LSE 20 SSW MTW 15 NNW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA 15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 SW PUB 60 SW COS 50 S 4FC 25 WNW DEN 30 E FCL 35 NE AKO 35 SSE IML 30 WSW HLC 25 ENE GCK 35 NNE EHA 35 SSE LHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35 ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25 NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MO/ OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITH ADDITIONAL...LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA. THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS CONSOLIDATING E OF MKC AS OF 19Z WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL IL INTO SRN LOWER MI. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW PRESSURE NEWD TO VICINITY OF CHICAGO BY 06/06Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL LOWER MI SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE NEWD PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MID MO AND LOWER OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MO AND OH VALLEYS... ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /REF. 18Z DVN SOUNDING/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS THIS EVENING AS STRONG...DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND MORE SO SGF INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY SERVE TO DELAY STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF MODERATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWP STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 20:06:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 15:06:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511052006.jA5K6hoe001042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052003 SWODY1 SPC AC 052002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 30 WSW BWG 45 WSW MEM 30 NE LIT 40 S FLP 25 WSW JEF 15 W CID 40 S LSE 20 SSW MTW 15 NNW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA 15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 SW PUB 60 SW COS 50 S 4FC 25 WNW DEN 30 E FCL 35 NE AKO 35 SSE IML 30 WSW HLC 25 ENE GCK 35 NNE EHA 35 SSE LHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35 ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25 NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS/ OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITH ADDITIONAL...LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA. THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS CONSOLIDATING E OF MKC AS OF 19Z WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL IL INTO SRN LOWER MI. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW PRESSURE NEWD TO VICINITY OF CHICAGO BY 06/06Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL LOWER MI SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE NEWD PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MID MO AND LOWER OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /REF. 18Z DVN SOUNDING/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS THIS EVENING AS STRONG...DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND MORE SO SGF INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY SERVE TO DELAY STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF MODERATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWP STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 01:03:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 20:03:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511060103.jA613R3A032581@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060100 SWODY1 SPC AC 060059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 20 WSW BWG MKL 45 ENE LIT 10 W RKR 35 ENE MKO 45 N COU 20 W MLI 25 W MKG 45 E BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W BUF 15 S BFD 30 E MGW 20 SE HTS 15 NW TYS 20 SSW HSV 30 SW GWO 35 NNW TYR 10 E GYI 25 ENE TUL 15 WSW STJ 15 NW ALO 20 S LSE 45 NW TVC 50 ENE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS/SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MO/THE OZARKS REGION ALONG COLD FRONT/JUST AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND SEASONABLY-WARM TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER AWAY FROM FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS CAPPED PER EVENING LZK /LITTLE ROCK AR/ AND ILX /CENTRAL ILLINOIS/ RAOBS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY LINEAR WITH TIME...WHILE REMAINING CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE FRONTAL FORCING/UVV WILL BE REQUIRED TO WEAKEN CAP. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION N OF WARM FRONT--NOW INDICATED OVER NRN IL/NRN INDIANA. THOUGH MARGINAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER/ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MO/NRN AR...AND WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME ACROSS IL/IN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN TN/WRN KY. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW REMAINS SLY/SSELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...YIELDING SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD -- AS MENTIONED ABOVE -- BECOME MORE SOLIDLY LINEAR WITH TIME...EXPECT EMBEDDED ROTATION WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE -- ALONG WITH BOWS/LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURES WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE ROTATING FEATURES...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THOUGH DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR...THREAT SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN STRONG DYNAMIC COMPONENT WITH THIS EVENT AND INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING WIND FIELD. ..GOSS.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 06:10:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 01:10:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511060610.jA66AV1W024347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060608 SWODY1 SPC AC 060605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ACY 25 S DCA 25 S SSU 15 SSW JKL 35 ESE LEX 30 WNW CMH 45 SE DTW ...CONT... 25 WNW EFK 25 SSW EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU 40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE GWO 30 SW UOX 25 NNW HOP 15 N BMG 30 SSE SBN 15 SE MBL 55 W ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER LOWER MI IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS LK HURON/SRN ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 07/12Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. ...THE NORTHEAST... STORMS AND AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM OH SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LINE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS PA/NY/WV/MD/NRN VA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING...AS FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. DESPITE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THE INTENSE UPPER SYSTEM. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG LINE -- WITH SMALL-SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS LIKELY. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND EXTEND FROM ERN OH AND WV EWD INTO ERN NY/ERN PA. LESSER THREAT MAY EXTEND SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD/INTENSE -- AND THUS SEVERE THREAT MORE ISOLATED -- ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 13:02:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 08:02:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511061301.jA6D1vCn009701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061259 SWODY1 SPC AC 061257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ACY 25 S DCA 25 S SSU 15 SSW JKL 35 ESE LEX 30 WNW CMH 40 SSE MTC ...CONT... 75 NNE BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E SBY 20 W RIC 40 NNW CAE 35 WNW AUO 10 SE MEI 35 SSE GWO 25 SW UOX 20 WNW BWG 50 ESE IND 15 SSE JXN 15 ESE HTL 15 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WRN NEW ENG... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IL WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE... REACHING LK ERIE THIS EVENING...AND ERN ME/SE QUEBEC BY 12Z MONDAY. LEAD MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS OVER IND/OH ATTM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD LK ONTARIO LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM 80+ KT SPEED MAX OVER NRN MO /PER SATELLITE...VWP AND PROFILER DATA/ SWEEPS E TO THE UPR OH VLY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE IL TROUGH...AND LIKELY ASSUMPTION OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW NOW NEARING SAGINAW BAY SHOULD CONTINUE E AND LATER NE INTO ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC...WITH ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL DEEPENING. COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM LOW IS OVER FAR WRN OH ATTM. THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...PRECEDED BY WEAKENING CONFLUENCE BANDS/OUTFLOW SEGMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS. ...UPR OH VLY/NRN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC/WRN NEW ENG... BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL/ERN OH SWWD INTO KY/TN ATTM SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CELLS MAY PERSIST GIVEN 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...ACTIVITY HAS MOVED BEYOND AXIS OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN. A BIT FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM/STRENGTHEN ALONG COLD FRONT NOW IN WRN OH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER PROXIMITY TO REGION OF STRONGEST MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE STORMS WILL ALSO GET A BOOST FROM MODEST SURFACE HEATING. AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR GRT LKS/WRN PA/WRN NY. AS THE FRONTAL STORMS APPROACH CNTRL PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY... CNTRL PA AND THE MD PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...ACTIVITY WILL COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MO JET MAX. THIS MAY RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND...AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWS WITH HIGH WIND...AS DEEP SSWLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO AOA 60 KTS. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED EWD INTO THE HUDSON VLY...THE MID ATLANTIC CST AND WRN NEW ENG. BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN/NRN NEW ENG TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/DIAL/TAYLOR.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 16:20:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 11:20:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511061620.jA6GKkFr011217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061609 SWODY1 SPC AC 061607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ACY 35 W NHK 20 W ROA 40 S HTS 45 WNW HTS 25 SSW CMH 65 E MTC ...CONT... 75 NNE BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SBY 10 N AVC 35 SW GSO 10 S GSP 35 NW AHN 15 E RMG 30 NNE CHA 35 ENE LEX 20 NW MFD 30 SSE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY 80-100 KT MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES TODAY...WHILE SURFACE LOW CENTER SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF MI AND INTO CANADA. A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER...AND WILL SWEEP EWD OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES. ...OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... CLASSIC LARGE SCALE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS EVOLVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS OH AS OF 16Z WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING. MAIN DETRIMENT TO SEVERE MAGNITUDE TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVELS OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG. 12Z ILN AND PIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY 600-900 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY FARTHER NE INTO BUF OR ALB. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES EWD...40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN AND ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING AS WELL WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AND WIND PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY A SQUALL LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE THREAT AREA FROM CENTRAL PA INTO NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LOW...AND ALTHOUGH MOSTLY LINEAR IN MODE...STORMS MAY BECOME CELLULAR AT TIMES OR THERE MAY BE EMBEDDED STRONG MESOCYCLONES WITHIN A LINE. ..JEWELL/EVANS.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 19:50:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 14:50:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511061949.jA6JnqoA014806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061946 SWODY1 SPC AC 061944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNE BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID ...CONT... 50 SE ACY 35 W NHK 20 W ROA 50 SSE HTS 25 WNW CRW HLG 30 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SBY 10 N AVC 35 SW GSO 10 S GSP 35 NW AHN 15 E RMG 25 NNE CHA 35 W HTS 25 SW CAK 30 NW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NY/PA/WV EWD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD WITH AN ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ACROSS IND/OH AND KY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...WHILE ATTENDANT SPEED MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW HAS OCCLUDED OVER NRN LAKE HURON WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ...NY/PA/WV EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY SWD TO NRN WV. ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE HAS TENDED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE /I.E. MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG/...HOWEVER INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS EWD ACROSS PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG WITH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATING 50 KT+ SWLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND INVOF ONGOING TSTMS. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIKELY WITH ANY BOWING OR LEWP STRUCTURES FORMING WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE. SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS /0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KTS/. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. ..MEAD.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 00:41:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 19:41:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511070041.jA70fKJK027316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070039 SWODY1 SPC AC 070037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ACY 30 NW DCA 30 SSW MSV 30 NW GFL 10 SSE RUT 15 ENE ORH 50 ENE HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 40 NNW AVC 15 ENE PSK 15 ESE IPT 15 N ITH 20 W MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN NY/SERN PA/NJ... LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -- JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY/ERN PA ATTM. CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE -- PARTICULARLY FROM SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH NEWD. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES INTO THIS REGION. FURTHER S -- FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..GOSS.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 05:43:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 00:43:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511070543.jA75haBM002098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070541 SWODY1 SPC AC 070540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW TOL 15 S CLE 10 WNW MGW 30 SW BLF 35 SE BWG 20 SE CGI 40 NE VIH 30 SE IRK BRL 25 W MMO 20 WNW TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 45 E AST 45 SW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI 30 SSW VCT 45 SSE LBX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD AREA OF GENERALLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS NERN U.S. TROUGH DEPARTS. FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS/ERN PACIFIC. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION AS 50 KT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES AFTER SUNSET. ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IN AND VICINITY DURING THE EVENING AS RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS NOW OVER TX ADVECTS NEWD OVER COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WITH SREF DATA SUGGESTING ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...A FEW RELATIVELY VIGOROUS STORMS MAY DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGEST THAT A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED/STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 16:33:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 11:33:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511071633.jA7GXLK2024407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071612 SWODY1 SPC AC 071611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25 N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25 ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 50 ESE OLM 45 ESE SLE 35 SE OTH 50 WSW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LRD 45 NNW ALI 10 ENE VCT 45 S GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST WHERE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST OVERNIGHT. POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN WA ATTM MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE IN WRN WA/NWRN ORE TODAY. ELSEWHERE...AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW ADVECTING NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BECOME PLENTIFUL INTO CENTRAL/SERN TX THIS MORNING...WITH H85 DEW POINTS AOA 10C EVIDENT AT OUN/LZK/SHV. THIS ROBUST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN TX AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL FUEL INCREASING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER DARK INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO IND/OH/KY... A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUSTAIN SWLY LLJ ANCHORED OVER PORTIONS OF OK/MO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK WITH H85 JET MAX NEAR 50 KT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF THIS JET WILL INCREASE ASCENT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO 00Z...THOUGH EVEN THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM NEAR 16C ATOP A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD OVER MUCH OF IL/IND/SWRN OH/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION... CLOUD-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION /INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS/... SUGGESTING AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE HAIL REMAIN WARRANTED. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 20:03:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 15:03:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511072003.jA7K3GBN014416@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 072000 SWODY1 SPC AC 071959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25 N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25 ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 50 ESE OLM 45 ESE SLE 35 SE OTH 50 WSW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LRD 40 E AUS 25 SE UTS 40 S BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...IL/IN... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO SWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENCE BY LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS. AS LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM INTO A MORE FOCUSED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS IL/IN LATE TONIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IT APPEARS ASCENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LLJ ATOP SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS SCENARIO SUPPORT UNINHIBITED BUOYANCY FOR PARCELS LIFTED BETWEEN 900-850MB. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK...MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000J/KG. DEEP WLY COMPONENT AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...THUS THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SEVERE RISK. ..DARROW.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 00:54:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 19:54:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511080054.jA80sRYU016421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080052 SWODY1 SPC AC 080051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25 N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25 ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEY REGION... EVENING ILX /CENTRAL IL/ RAOB CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS THAT 500 TO 750 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING AS MODEST MOISTENING IN THE 850 TO 900 MB LAYER /ASSISTED BY INTENSIFYING WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET/ CONTINUES. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...MODESTLY-STRONG BUT GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD YIELD ONLY MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- THUS SUGGESTING GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS. THOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 06:15:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 01:15:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511080615.jA86FATL008298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080612 SWODY1 SPC AC 080611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CLE 20 SSW HLG 20 ENE CRW 30 SSE HTS 15 N SDF 25 E MVN 25 NNW STL 40 SW BRL 25 WSW LSE 30 W CWA 50 ENE AUW 20 ESE MBL 10 NE FNT 25 S MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER 50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE TRM 35 SSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV 30 NW DCA 45 E RIC 25 NE RWI 25 W TRI BWG 20 WSW CGI 15 N TBN 40 S MSP IWD 90 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 40 N SAT 20 SE TPL 35 NW LFK 40 E LFK 45 ESE GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN CA COAST. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES EWD. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR NOSE OF WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEAR AND N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. WITH MOST CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST -- WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN LESS ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS N OF CENTRAL IL -- WITH CAPPING FORECAST TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW ALONG FRONT. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 09/12Z. ..GOSS.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 07:27:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 02:27:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511080726.jA87Qfjb026916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080723 SWODY1 SPC AC 080721 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CLE 20 SSW HLG 20 ENE CRW 30 SSE HTS 15 N SDF 25 E MVN 25 NNW STL 40 SW BRL 25 WSW LSE 30 W CWA 50 ENE AUW 20 ESE MBL 10 NE FNT 25 S MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER 50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE TRM 35 SSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV 30 NW DCA 45 E RIC 25 NE RWI 25 W TRI BWG 20 WSW CGI 15 N TBN 40 S MSP IWD 90 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 40 N SAT 20 SE TPL 35 NW LFK 40 E LFK 45 ESE GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VLY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN CA COAST. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES EWD. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR NOSE OF WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEAR AND N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. WITH MOST CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST -- WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN LESS ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS N OF CENTRAL IL -- WITH CAPPING FORECAST TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW ALONG FRONT. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 09/12Z. ..GOSS/TAYLOR/JPR.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 13:02:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 08:02:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511081301.jA8D1kt7009280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081259 SWODY1 SPC AC 081258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ZZV 20 ENE CRW 45 SSE HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 E MVN 25 NNW STL 40 SW BRL 25 WSW LSE 30 W CWA 50 ENE AUW 20 ESE MBL 10 NE FNT 25 S MTC 15 WNW ZZV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER 50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE TRM 35 SSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 40 N SAT 20 SE TPL 35 NW LFK 40 E LFK 45 ESE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV 30 NW DCA 45 E RIC 25 NE RWI 25 W TRI BWG 20 WSW CGI 15 N TBN 20 NE MKT 40 SE BRD 35 N ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST/OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... A SEASONABLY UNUSUAL...POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST THIS PERIOD AS SPEED MAX NOW CROSSING THE NRN RCKYS TEMPORARILY PHASES WITH SRN STREAM JET NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN TO CARVE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER WRN ONTARIO AND THE UPR GRT LKS. LEE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER ERN MT SHOULD TRACK E ACROSS THE DAKS TODAY BEFORE UNDERGOING RAPID DEEPENING OVER NRN MN/SW ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPR SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT. FARTHER S...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT WAVE MAY FORM LATER TODAY ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT IN NRN IA. THE WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE NE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SURGES NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN WI AND WRN/SRN LWR MI. ...GRT LKS/MIDWEST/OH VLY... TSTMS NOW OVER THE MID OH VLY...ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION MAX...SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF WV/WRN VA. MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY MAY FORM UPSTREAM ACROSS SW OH/IND/KY AND IL LATER TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND JUST S OF STALLING W-E COOL FRONT. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE DAY...GIVEN QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN /WARM SECTOR PWS AOA 1 INCH/ AND 40-45 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IF SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS ERN IA/IL/WI/IND AND LWR MI THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS...AND MAIN NRN STREAM JET STREAK APPROACHES REGION. THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH ALONG AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IN IA/WI/IL...AND POSSIBLY ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM MN SURFACE LOW. ASSOCIATED RAPID NEWD SURFACE DESTABILIZATION FROM MLI/DBQ AREA TO CHI/MKE/SW LWR MI MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 16:36:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 11:36:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511081635.jA8GZjQR017490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081625 SWODY1 SPC AC 081623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CLE 50 ENE LUK 15 NW BMG 35 E UIN 20 ENE CID 35 WNW LNR 30 ENE VOK 15 WNW MTW 25 E RQB 20 NNW MTC 15 N CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW VBG 30 NNE PRB 25 ESE FAT 25 E BIH 60 ESE TPH 30 NNE LAS 65 WNW EED 35 NE RAL 55 S LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 E BFD 30 WNW BWI 25 S RIC 20 SW AVC 20 NE HSS CSV 30 ESE FAM 35 WNW COU 35 NNE DSM 35 E MKT 35 SSE ASX 30 NNE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 30 E AUS 40 SSE CRS 35 N LFK 45 E GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY... RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MID WEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY...H85 WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL SUSTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM ERN IND/OH INTO WRN PA/WV. H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH WITH 50+ KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN LAKE MI REGION BY 06Z. ALOFT...CURRENT MODEST WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AS 130+ KT H25 SPEED MAX /80+ KT AT H5/ SHIFTS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN EWD ACROSS NRN MN...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI AND INTO LOWER MI AFTER 06Z. IN ADDITION...UNSEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVELS EXTEND FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY INTO CENTRAL MO. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND ILN INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP / 6.7 C/KM FROM H85-H5/ ATOP A MOIST BUT COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL WAA MAY SUSTAIN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THIS REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IND. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CINH WITHIN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE AFTER DARK AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN COOL/STABLE...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT BECOME ENHANCED. THERE REMAINS CONCERN THAT DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL MIXING/LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT/TRIPLE POINT MAY OVERCOME SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 0-1 KM AND LOW LCLS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SRN WI/NRN IL/NRN IND AND PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SURFACE PARCELS BE TAPPED. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 20:17:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 15:17:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511082017.jA8KHQaJ004994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082007 SWODY1 SPC AC 082006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CRW HTS 35 ENE LEX 45 E BMG SPI 25 WSW OXV FRM 10 WSW EAU CWA MBS 10 WNW YNG PIT 40 E CRW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW VBG 40 ENE MRY 60 NE MER TPH 60 ESE TPH 30 NNE LAS 65 WNW EED 35 NE RAL 55 S LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 E BFD 30 WNW BWI 25 S RIC 20 SW AVC 20 NE HSS 35 ENE CSV 25 WNW MDH 35 ESE STJ 30 W SUX 25 ESE BKX 40 WSW DLH 30 NNE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 30 E AUS 40 SSE CRS 35 N LFK 45 E GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE UPR MS VLY THROUGH PARTS OF THE OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.... ...UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...NOW SHIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ON LEADING EDGE OF GULF RETURN FLOW...WHERE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL WEAKENING TRENDS COMMENCE...A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL SEEMS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES... MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE ACCELERATES FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ANOTHER WAVE IS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LATTER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH IS ACCELERATING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...JUST AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL OVERCOME INHIBITION FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...BUT LIMITED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF SURFACE WAVE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 9 01:29:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 20:29:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511090129.jA91TPGu015492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090127 SWODY1 SPC AC 090125 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRW HTS 40 NE LEX 35 ESE IND 20 SSW BMI 20 ESE OTM 25 ESE MCW 10 WSW EAU 35 NNW GRB 20 NNW HTL 10 WNW YNG HLG 20 NE CRW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 20 WNW PHL 10 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRY 45 ESE MRY 25 S FAT 30 W PMD 55 SW LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ORF 20 SW AVC 10 W TRI 30 ESE SDF 50 NNW EVV 10 E CDJ 45 E DNS RWF 55 ESE BRD 30 N IWD 35 NNW MQT 20 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WV...WHILE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER N CENTRAL INDIANA JUST N OF WARM FRONT...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS NRN IL/NRN INDIANA/OH NOW INTO WI/MI. THOUGH CAPPING IS STRONGER FURTHER W...SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...AS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE A FEW SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM. ...COASTAL SRN CA... AREA OF SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES -- WILL EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-20C/ -- AND THUS GREATEST INSTABILITY -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS POINT CONCEPTION AND VICINITY. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF ONSHORE TORNADO BENEATH A STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 9 02:01:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 21:01:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511090201.jA9215SV000460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090156 SWODY1 SPC AC 090155 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRW HTS 40 NE LEX 35 ESE IND 20 SSW BMI 20 ESE OTM 25 ESE MCW 10 WSW EAU 35 NNW GRB 20 NNW HTL 10 WNW YNG HLG 20 NE CRW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 20 WNW PHL 10 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRY 45 ESE MRY 25 S FAT 30 W PMD 55 SW LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ORF 20 SW AVC 10 W TRI 30 ESE SDF 50 NNW EVV 10 E CDJ 45 E DNS RWF 55 ESE BRD 30 N IWD 35 NNW MQT 20 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER GRAPHIC ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WV...WHILE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER N CENTRAL INDIANA JUST N OF WARM FRONT...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS NRN IL/NRN INDIANA/OH NOW INTO WI/MI. THOUGH CAPPING IS STRONGER FURTHER W...SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...AS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE A FEW SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM. ...COASTAL SRN CA... AREA OF SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES -- WILL EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-20C/ -- AND THUS GREATEST INSTABILITY -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS POINT CONCEPTION AND VICINITY. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF ONSHORE TORNADO BENEATH A STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 9 02:02:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 21:02:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511090202.jA922O5A001216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090158 SWODY1 SPC AC 090156 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRW HTS 40 NE LEX 35 ESE IND 20 SSW BMI 20 ESE OTM 25 ESE MCW 10 WSW EAU 35 NNW GRB 20 NNW HTL 10 WNW YNG HLG 20 NE CRW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BUF 20 WNW PHL 50 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRY 45 ESE MRY 25 S FAT 30 W PMD 55 SW LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ORF 20 SW AVC 10 W TRI 30 ESE SDF 50 NNW EVV 10 E CDJ 45 E DNS RWF 55 ESE BRD 30 N IWD 35 NNW MQT 20 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER GRAPHIC ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WV...WHILE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER N CENTRAL INDIANA JUST N OF WARM FRONT...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS NRN IL/NRN INDIANA/OH NOW INTO WI/MI. THOUGH CAPPING IS STRONGER FURTHER W...SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...AS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE A FEW SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM. ...COASTAL SRN CA... AREA OF SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES -- WILL EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-20C/ -- AND THUS GREATEST INSTABILITY -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS POINT CONCEPTION AND VICINITY. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF ONSHORE TORNADO BENEATH A STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 10 16:58:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 11:58:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511101657.jAAGvrpM017712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101632 SWODY1 SPC AC 101631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S VBG 40 SW BFL 30 SSE FAT 35 S TVL 30 W LOL 55 W OWY 35 W TWF 25 SE BYI 25 NE DPG 55 SE U24 15 WSW 4BL 60 W FMN 50 WSW GUP 65 E PHX 40 S GBN 75 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 25 W COT 35 E COT 15 NW CRP 50 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD OVER THE NE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE ERN SEABOARD...WITH TRAILING SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. IN THE WEST...PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD TODAY OWING TO UPSTREAM KICKER. ...SRN CA/GREAT BASIN... UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA. EWD SPREADING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS ACROSS SRN CA AND MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS SRN CA INTO AZ OWING TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS/MODEST BUOYANCY ADVERTISED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER/EVANS.. 11/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 10 19:37:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 14:37:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511101937.jAAJbMdY016651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101935 SWODY1 SPC AC 101934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSW MRY BFL 25 E SCK 65 ESE RBL 10 S AAT REO 45 N SUN IDA 40 ENE MLD U24 PGA INW 70 ESE PHX 55 SSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN CUT-OFF FROM STRONGER/MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTH BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES... APPEARS TO FINALLY BE UNDERWAY. THIS IS OCCURRING AS BROADLY CYCLONIC NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ...SRN CALIFORNIA INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... PRIMARY IMPULSE IS STILL ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WELL OFFSHORE... AND NOT PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY WHERE OROGRAPHY ENHANCES FORCING NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR LAS VEGAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 11/03-06Z...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/ DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 11/12Z. ...SOUTHERN TEXAS... GIVEN CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIMITED TO UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. ..KERR.. 11/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 00:51:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 19:51:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511110051.jAB0ptkR022552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110046 SWODY1 SPC AC 110044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S VBG 25 SSW SCK 30 ENE SAC 15 NW RNO 30 NNW LOL 25 NNE WMC 15 NE OWY 50 S BYI 25 WSW OGD 30 WNW U28 30 SSW 4BL 10 ESE INW 20 NE PHX 20 SSE YUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN/CNTRL CA ACROSS GREAT BASIN... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG DPVA AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF POINT CONCEPTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOISTENING AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CNTRL/ERN CA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PROCESS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NV AND THEN TO UT/NRN AZ THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE MODEST DYNAMICS...LATEST SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 250 J/KG/ SHOULD RESTRICT UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND PERSISTENCE. ..CARBIN.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 05:35:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 00:35:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511110535.jAB5ZGIX025333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110532 SWODY1 SPC AC 110531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BLH 60 WNW EED 10 S DRA 70 NW P38 60 NNE ENV 15 NW PIH 30 NW WEY 40 WNW COD 60 WNW RIW 10 SE BPI 50 NNW VEL 50 WNW CAG 40 S RWL 20 NNE CYS 50 SE AIA 35 NNE LBF 20 NW GRI 35 ESE HSI 40 WNW CNK 10 S HLC 40 ESE LAA DHT 35 E 4CR 40 S SAD 25 NE GBN 65 ENE BLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 NNW SEA 35 WNW HQM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE OVER SRN CA IS FCST TO DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATER TODAY AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...AND SOUTH THIS PERIOD WHILE DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW MAINTAINS A COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES... LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LOCALLY INCREASE IN AREAS OF FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND DIURNAL FORCING BY AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND NAMKF POINT FCST SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING MUCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NRN AZ/NM BORDER BY AROUND 18Z AND THIS INSTABILITY COULD FUEL ISOLATED STRONGER UPDRAFTS. STORMS FORMING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AOB 0.75 INCH IN DIAMETER BASED ON SPC HAIL MODEL OUTPUT. AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...OLYMPIC PENINSULA... THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG A VARIETY OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA THAT WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PUGET SOUND AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 16:36:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 11:36:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511111635.jABGZtRo007824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111626 SWODY1 SPC AC 111625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 ENE AST 20 SSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 ENE AST 50 SW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 35 ESE HOB 35 WNW PVW 15 SSE TCC 10 ESE 4CR 35 NE SAD 10 S PHX 65 WSW PRC 50 SSW LAS 30 N DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E ENV 30 NW RKS 35 ENE RWL 20 S TOR 10 SSE EAR 20 SW BIE 20 SSW TOP 40 SE OKC 40 NW SEP 30 E JCT 20 SSW SAT 10 N VCT 40 SSE LBX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWEST STATES... LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AZ...ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST CO AND NORTHWEST NM. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM WEST TX INTO KS AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 19:29:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 14:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511111928.jABJSwkt009157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111927 SWODY1 SPC AC 111925 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW MRF 35 ESE HOB 35 WNW PVW 15 SSE TCC 10 ESE 4CR 35 NE SAD 10 S PHX 65 WSW PRC 10 NNE EED 20 NNE LAS 50 SSE ELY 25 E ENV 30 NW RKS 35 ENE RWL 20 S TOR 10 SSE EAR 20 SW BIE 20 SSW TOP 40 SE OKC 40 NW SEP 30 E JCT 20 SSW SAT 10 N VCT 40 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 ENE AST 50 SW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWEST STATES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER AZ/SRN UT PER WV IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE ENE REACHING THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN CO/ NWRN NM...IS LOCATED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OROGRAPHY COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE ENE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SWRN TROUGH. THIS LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH WAA REGIME SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 00:58:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 19:58:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511120057.jAC0vvsf025468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120055 SWODY1 SPC AC 120053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MRF 55 NNW MRF 55 WNW CVS 10 NE LVS 15 ESE DRO 10 SW 4HV 55 WNW PUC 20 E SLC 40 WNW RKS 25 SSE CPR 20 W MHN 15 NNW BUB 15 SSE DNS 30 SSW DSM 25 SE LWD 55 SW SZL 15 SSW GMJ 50 W GYI 45 SW ABI 50 SW SJT 40 WNW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE WAS CONTINUING TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ISOLATED CG LTG STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NERN PLAINS OF NM AND ERN PLAINS OF CO WHERE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATED MUCAPE WAS IN THE RANGE OF 100-150 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EAST AND LARGE SCALE LIFT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY OCCUR ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SENDING MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM TX TO IA THROUGH 12Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD ACT TO LOCALLY OVERCOME NEGATIVE BUOYANCY AND PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND SPC EXPLICIT TSTM GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO TO SOME EXTENT...WITH BOTH INDICATING POCKETS OF AT LEAST 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE GENL TSTM OUTLOOK... FROM TX TO IA...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 05:59:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 00:59:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511120558.jAC5wxlm012019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120556 SWODY1 SPC AC 120555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 10 WNW OLU 20 E YKN 10 NE OTG 30 ENE MKT 35 SSE EAU 25 SSE VOK 25 ENE MLI 25 E BRL 20 N FAM 20 S JBR 40 ESE PBF 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 35 E EMP 20 E CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ANJ 10 NNE BAX 15 SE DAY 20 NE BNA 25 W MSL 30 N HEZ 35 SSE POE 65 SW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE BRO 50 N MFE 50 ESE LRD 20 SW COT 55 WSW HDO 45 SSW JCT 25 NE JCT 25 NW MWL 25 SSE CHK 25 WSW ICT 30 W HUT 15 NW GCK 30 ENE LAA 30 WSW ITR 25 ENE AKO 50 ENE SNY 10 WNW 9V9 25 SW DTL 40 ENE BJI 30 N INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAMS PRODUCES A DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY FORMING ACROSS NEB...WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY TO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EVENING. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD/NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND BE SITUATED FROM NRN TX TO ERN OK/SWRN MO LATER TODAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE OVER MO AND THEN SETTLE SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEB/IA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING FROM MO TO MN. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 TO 1000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...FROM ERN KS/NEB NEWD TO IA/SRN MN. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVERCOME LOW LEVEL CAP TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL INITIATION OVER ERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND NRN MO DURING THE EVENING AND PROBABLY BECOME INCREASING LINEAR AND ELEVATED WITH TIME. DESPITE THE NARROWNESS OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS MO/IA/SRN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SURFACE-BASED SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 200-400 M2/S2 PER NAM/NAMKF SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST THAT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR. A GREATER CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WINDS AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM SERN MN TO WRN IL BY LATE EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MASS INFLOW APPEAR TO FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM MO NWD...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING FROM NERN TX/ERN OK TO WRN AR/SWRN MO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAPPING SHOULD BE OVERCOME AHEAD OF A WEAK DRYLINE IN THESE AREAS AND SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION BEFORE DARK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-50KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE AFTER DARK FROM AR SWWD TO TX AS INITIAL ACTIVITY MERGES AND DEEPENING COLD POOL MAINTAINS LIFT AND STORM REGENERATION IN MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH THIS LINEAR MCS AS IT SPREADS SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 12:56:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 07:56:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511121256.jACCuAsC016943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121253 SWODY1 SPC AC 121251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FNB 35 NNE LNK 35 NNW SUX 10 NW OTG 35 SSE MSP 30 NE RST 45 NNW DBQ 25 NW MLI 25 SSE BRL 45 WSW FAM 30 SSE BVX 25 ENE ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 25 ENE CNU 20 SW FNB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ANJ 10 NNE BAX 15 SE DAY 20 NE BNA 25 W MSL 30 N HEZ 35 SSE POE 65 SW 7R4 ...CONT... 65 NE BRO 50 N MFE 50 ESE LRD 20 SW COT 55 WSW HDO 45 SSW JCT 25 NE JCT 25 NNW MWL 25 N OKC 35 NW PNC 45 S RSL 25 SSW HLC 10 SW GLD 40 E AKO 45 SE AIA 40 ENE AIA 20 SSE PIR 25 SW DTL 40 ENE BJI 30 N INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX TO IA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX/OK/KS/NEB THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD TO IA/MO/AR BY THIS EVENING...AND ACCELERATE NEWD WHILE GRADUALLY PHASING WITH A SEPARATE MID LEVEL TROUGH /NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/ LATE TONIGHT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED 994 MB SURFACE CYCLONE IN CENTRAL NEB WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE...REACHING CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE TRAILING THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...NE TX TO IA AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE SURGING NWD FROM TX ACROSS CENTRAL OK/KS TOWARD ERN NEB. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z AND 12Z REVEAL A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OFFSET E OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS...IN THE REGION OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BELT OF ASCENT WILL BE E OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR BY THIS AFTERNOON ...AND MAY SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN OK/WRN AR ACROSS MO/WRN IL/ERN IA. W OF THIS BELT OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION...A NARROW INSTABILITY CORRIDOR /MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED FROM NE TX/ERN OK NWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN KS/WRN MO TO WRN AND CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE E OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD DURING THE EVENING ACROSS IA...WHILE DEVELOPING SWD INTO MO. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS THE DRYLINE APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING LATE THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS IA/MO WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS. TONIGHT...THE STORMS ACROSS MO/IA WILL MOVE QUICKLY E OF THE DIMINISHING SURFACE WARM SECTOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH NEAR AND E OF THE MS RIVER AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND STORMS BECOME ROOTED ABOVE A PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND. FARTHER SW...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/FRONT ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SWWD INTO NE TX OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND/OR EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM LIFTING WELL N/NE OF THIS AREA. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 16:37:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 11:37:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511121636.jACGapi3001545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121630 SWODY1 SPC AC 121628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FNB 35 N LNK 20 E YKN 35 NW OTG 20 NNE MKT 30 NE RST 45 NNW DBQ 25 NW MLI 25 SSE BRL 45 WSW FAM 30 SSE BVX 25 ENE ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 25 ENE CNU 20 SW FNB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 25 NE COT 25 NNW HDO 15 WSW FTW 20 E OKC 30 ENE CNK 10 WSW OLU 35 E ONL 20 ENE VTN 35 NNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 15 N INL ...CONT... 35 NW CLE 45 ESE BWG 40 E TUP 30 N HEZ 45 NW LFT 55 SW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX INTO IA... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING BEFORE MERGING WITH RAPIDLY MOVING UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...REACHING SWRN MN BY 00Z AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS/WRN OK/SWRN TX WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF NEB/KS/OK AND CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. THE NRN PORTION OF THE DRY LINE FROM KS/MO NWD WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SURGE ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE WRN LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SRN PART OF THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN AR ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN PARTS OF KS AND NEB AND EXTREME WRN MO/IA THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION. A RELATIVELY NARROW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX ACROSS ERN PARTS OF OK/KS/NEB INTO WRN IA/MO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM ERN OK/WRN AR NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA...WITH A PRONOUNCED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEARING ALONG THE WESTERN PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...WHERE AN AXIS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z ETA..14Z RUC..AND 09Z ETAKF CONTROL MEMBER FROM THE SREF INDICATE THE CAP WILL DIMINISH IN THE 20-22Z PERIOD AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AS COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...INITIALLY OVER EXTREME ERN NEB SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN IA WITH ADDITIONAL SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO EXTREME ERN KS AND WRN MO. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST VALUES OF MLCAPE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SRH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ACCELERATING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DIMINISH AFTER 03-06Z ALTHOUGH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH A LOW TOPPED BAND OF STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WI AND IL LATER TONIGHT. ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NORTH CENTRAL/NERN TX/NWRN LA... INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST FROM ERN OK/WRN AR INTO CENTRAL AND ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE NRN PART OF THE BAND MOVING MORE RAPIDLY EWD INTO AR WHILE SRN PART OF BAND MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BAND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED WITH TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 20:21:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 15:21:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511122021.jACKLDKi012925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122017 SWODY1 SPC AC 122016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FLV 20 ESE YKN 20 NNW BKX 20 NNE RWF 35 SE MSP 30 WNW LSE 45 NNW DBQ 25 NW MLI 25 SSE BRL 45 WSW FAM 30 SSE BVX 25 ENE ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 25 ENE CNU 20 W FLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 25 NE COT 25 NNW HDO 15 WSW FTW 20 E OKC 30 ENE CNK 10 WSW OLU 35 E ONL 20 ENE VTN 35 NNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 15 N INL ...CONT... 35 NW CLE 45 ESE BWG 40 E TUP 30 N HEZ 45 NW LFT 55 SW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FAR SERN SD/SRN MN SWD TO NERN TX... ...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NERN NEB WITH THE TRAILING DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN NEB...CENTRAL/ERN KS AND OK. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /180-200 METERS/ SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE LOW REACHING CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAD CONTINUED TO ADVECT A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S FROM SERN SD TO CENTRAL IA...AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER REGION. GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN MN AIDING IN THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS ERN NEB/KS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG... AND UP TO 1500 J/KG OVER NRN TX. 18Z SOUNDINGS AT TOP/OMA BOTH INDICATED A LOW LEVEL CAP. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CAP IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING/PV ADVECTION SPREADS RAPIDLY ENEWD AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THIS CAP COMBINED WITH THE NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN FAR ERN NEB/WRN IA/SERN SD AND THEN SWD INTO ERN KS BY 20-21Z. STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR GIVEN DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AS INDICATED ON THE 18Z TOP/OMA SOUNDINGS. ONCE STORMS INITIATE...THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND INTO MO. THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AS COLD FRONT/FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVE AWAY FROM STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATER THREAT THIS EVENING GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM AND CONTINUATION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR LOW TOPPED STORMS. THIS THREAT MAY REACH INTO PARTS OF WI/IL. ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN TX/NWRN LA... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NERN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE NEAR TERM SEVERE THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /SPCSWOMCD/ 2404. LATER THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TENDING TO DECREASE. HOWEVER... SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX TO THE ARKLATEX REGION FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVE SEWD. ..PETERS.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 00:52:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 19:52:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511130052.jAD0qPHm000905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130050 SWODY1 SPC AC 130048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE FRM 30 SW RWF 40 S AXN 25 NW STC 55 S DLH 45 W RHI 35 E VOK 25 E MLI 30 W SPI 25 SW FAM 30 SE BVX 35 E ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT FTW 50 N JLN 25 NNE OXV 35 SE FRM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW CLE 45 ESE BWG 40 E TUP 30 N HEZ 45 NW LFT 55 SW 7R4 ...CONT... 55 ESE CRP 25 NE COT 20 NNW HDO 10 ENE MWL 40 SSE CQB 15 ESE OJC DSM 20 SW FSD 35 NW ATY 20 NW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO WRN GREAT LAKES... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT 70-80 KT JET STREAK LOCATED ALONG DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS FROM NRN MO INTO WI. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN THE DEEPENING OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NRN WI OR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 13/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OBSERVED EARLIER OVER CNTRL IA HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS THEY ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ACROSS NRN AND ERN IA /PER 00Z DVN AND MPX SOUNDINGS/. STRENGTHENING OF UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WARM SECTOR AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE NEWD...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SOME SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN IA INTO SRN MN. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED IN REGIONAL SOUNDING AND VAD/PROFILER DATA...THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING. OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITHIN REGION OF STRONG FORCING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...OZARKS INTO THE ARKLATEX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SWRN MO AND SERN OK ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR DRYLINE WHERE LOCALLY WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE HAVE OVERCOME CAP. PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM CNTRL AR NWD INTO THE OZARKS HAVE LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AS OBSERVED BY THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING. MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN OK YIELDS MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 00Z SGF HODOGRAPH AND DE QUEEN AR PROFILER/ INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. SHOULD STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LINEAR OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 05:24:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 00:24:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511130523.jAD5Njt4011357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130521 SWODY1 SPC AC 130519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 6R6 40 W BWD 20 E DUA 15 NNW RUE 30 E MVN 25 WSW LUK 40 E LUK 25 NNW HTS 20 SSE HTS 40 ESE LOZ 20 SSW TYS 20 ENE GAD 25 S BHM 40 E MEI 40 S MEI 40 SE PIB 25 ESE GPT 20 ENE BVE 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 70 ESE CRP 40 S ALI 25 SW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC...MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...AND NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH TRAILING PORTION OF BOUNDARY SETTLING MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SEWD FROM ALBERTA INTO ERN MT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO ERN TX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY PERHAPS INTO ERN TX ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING OWING TO THE VEERING/WEAKENING OF THE LLJ. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TX COAST NWD ACROSS ERN TX INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ LATER TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT AND/OR ANY PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE MS RIVER WWD INTO ERN/SERN TX. LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AOB 30 KTS/ SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERITY/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 12:55:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 07:55:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511131255.jADCt8mW028423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131253 SWODY1 SPC AC 131251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 6R6 30 NNW JCT 20 E DUA 25 W RUE 25 SSW CGI 25 WSW LUK 40 E LUK 25 NNW HTS 20 SSE HTS 40 ESE LOZ 20 SSW TYS 25 ENE GAD 15 SSW BHM 45 SSW TCL 20 SSE MEI 10 SW PIB MSY 40 ESE 7R4 55 S 7R4 ...CONT... 60 S PSX 20 SW CRP 25 SW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WEAKEN. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SLOWLY SEWD INTO TX/AR. THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 66-70 F/ IS CONFINED TO AR/LA/TX TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...AND S/SW OF A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN AR/NW MS. ...CENTRAL TX TO NW LA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WIND FIELDS SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE AS THE MS VALLEY SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD...LEAVING MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER TX/LA/MS/SRN AR. STILL...MODIFIED FCST AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND NW LA. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THE DIFFUSE REMNANTS OF DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL...WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL/ISOLATED. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 16:35:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 11:35:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511131634.jADGYwmi031943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131623 SWODY1 SPC AC 131621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 6R6 40 NE SJT 20 W GYI 25 NNW MLC 15 ESE FYV 30 WNW ARG 25 NNE EVV 35 S FDY MFD 25 N PKB 45 S HTS 30 W RMG 45 NNW MOB 45 S 7R4 ...CONT... 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...LEAVING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT. ...TX/AR/LA/MS... SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM WESTERN AR INTO CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS MIDWESTERN TROUGH DEPARTS AREA. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST AR/WESTERN MS...GENERALLY FROM 18-00Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DARK. LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...AND RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY TODAY. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 19:47:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 14:47:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511131946.jADJkj5o011787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131945 SWODY1 SPC AC 131943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD ...CONT... 35 SE 6R6 40 NE SJT 20 W GYI 25 NNW MLC 15 ESE FYV 30 WNW ARG 20 WSW SDF 30 E DAY 30 NE CMH 25 N PKB 45 S HTS 30 W RMG 45 NNW MOB 60 SSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD ONTARIO/ QUEBEC...LEAVING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SRN PORTION OF TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD INTO MS/SRN AR AND ACROSS ERN/SRN TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER AR/NRN MS...NOW EXTENDED FROM SRN AL WNWWD TO SRN AR. ...TX/AR/LA/MS... EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CU/TCU AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NRN LA/ERN TX. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...WITH ANY ACTIVITY WEAKENING QUICKLY AFTER DARK. ..PETERS.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 00:46:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 19:46:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511140046.jAE0k6vq030343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140044 SWODY1 SPC AC 140042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE 6R6 15 ESE BWD 15 ESE DEQ 45 SSE BVX 25 SSW CKV 35 S BNA 25 SSE HSV 45 NNW MOB 80 S HUM ...CONT... 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM WRN TN SWWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND INTO SWRN TX NEAR DRT. DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOB MOIST ADIABATIC/ OBSERVED ON 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...BOUNDARY-LAYER MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 11-13 G/KG COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL TX. TSTMS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT N OF SHV...AS WELL AS IN WARM SECTOR S OF LFK. THUS FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED RATHER DISORGANIZED...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF THE POOR LAPSE RATES...MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE /REF. INVERSION AROUND 630 MB ON 00Z SHV SOUNDING/. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MEXICO. A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND SLOWLY STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 05:53:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 00:53:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511140553.jAE5rGs3032501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140551 SWODY1 SPC AC 140549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JEF 15 W MVN 30 NW LUK 45 SE DAY 20 NNW HTS 15 ESE JKL 40 WNW CHA 15 N CBM 45 WNW JAN 25 NNW IER 15 SSW GGG 30 WSW PRX 30 NNE ADM 30 WSW BVO 30 NNE CNU 25 WSW SZL 20 ESE JEF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE CRP 65 W MFE ...CONT... 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT 30 SW ABI 40 NW MWL 40 W ADM 25 NNE OKC 10 NW PNC 35 NE ICT 10 NNE TOP 35 NNE SZL 35 NW ALN LAF 35 ENE FDY 30 SW ERI 20 SE ERI 30 NNW DUJ 30 SSW AOO 40 NNE BKW 50 N TRI 25 NNE ATL 20 E MGM 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE SAV 40 S OGB 20 W FLO 30 NNE FAY 10 N OAJ 65 ESE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/SERN KS/NERN TX INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF DIGGING... MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRECEEDING THIS LARGER-SCALE EVOLUTION...LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX OR ERN OK INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY 15/12Z. MEANWHILE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER ERN CO WITH APPROACH OF UPPER JET STREAKS AND PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO SWRN MO BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING...STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGING SWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY... RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SWLY LLJ TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS REGIME WILL SUPPORT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AND MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW. EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TODAY WITHIN THIS WAA PATTERN FROM THE LA COAST NWD TO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN AR/NRN MS AND INTO WRN/CNTRL TN/KY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...A POTENTIALLY ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN LOCAL ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2/ AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...EWD ALONG WARM FRONT. ...ERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO/WRN AND CNTRL AR... LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KT LLJ ACROSS REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. TSTMS...INITIALLY ELEVATED...WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS AR/ERN OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO SERN KS AND SRN MO. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. SHOULD STORMS BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SERN KS/NERN OK BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 13:03:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 08:03:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511141302.jAED2tME018973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141300 SWODY1 SPC AC 141258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SZL 15 NW VIH 10 NE MVN 30 SE BMG 45 SE DAY 25 N HTS 10 SE JKL 40 W CHA 30 NNW BHM 20 WSW GWO 20 NW SHV 40 NNW TYR 30 SSW MLC 40 W MKO 20 NNW BVO 25 NNW CNU 30 SSW SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT 30 SW ABI 35 NNE ABI 25 ESE SPS 15 WNW ADM 30 NE CQB 35 ENE ICT 15 E TOP 30 NNE SZL 35 NW ALN LAF 35 ENE FDY 30 SW ERI 20 SE ERI 30 NNW DUJ 30 SSW AOO 20 SE CRW 10 SE TRI 20 N AHN 15 E TOI 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 65 SE CRP 65 W MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ASE 45 NE GJT 35 NE VEL 50 NNE EVW 30 SSW JAC 15 E WEY 35 NNW COD 40 WSW SHR 10 S TOR 45 ENE FCL 10 SSE DEN 15 WNW ASE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SAV 40 S OGB 20 WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 60 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR ERN OK/NERN TX INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING FROM SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON INTO ERN OK/WRN AR BY TUE MORNING. FARTHER E...LEAD UPPER VORT MAX WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF CO/KS...BECOMING FAVORABLY PHASED WITH SECONDARY UPPER JET ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AID IN LARGE SCALE LIFT. AT THE SURFACE...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD FROM AR/NRN MS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH RELATIVELY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND A PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING THREAT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO ERN OK/AR/SRN MO WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO OH VALLEY... MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM ERN TX INTO MS WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ONGOING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SEVERE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND THIS MORNING...BUT STORMS ALONG AND/OR SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STRONG FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO SMALL SCALE BOWS POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...ERN OK/AR/SRN MO TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...TRANSPORTING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS ERN TX INTO WRN AR/ERN OK. MEANWHILE...AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH ELEVATED HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SRN MO. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...SURFACE PARCELS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AND DEEPENING LOW...ENOUGH MIXING MAY OCCUR IN A NARROW AXIS AHEAD OF LOW TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE. ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 16:37:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 11:37:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511141637.jAEGb84E023010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141631 SWODY1 SPC AC 141630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SZL VIH MVN 25 S BMG LUK 40 WSW UNI JKL HSV 25 SE TUP GWO SHV 45 NNW TYR 10 E DUA BVO 15 WSW CNU 30 SSW SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BUF 30 SE LBE 35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 55 E CRP 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT 15 ENE ABI 35 ENE SPS 10 NNW OKC 15 W END 25 NNW GAG 35 E RTN 25 E GUC 40 NNE GJT 20 SSE BPI 35 E JAC 35 NNE WRL 20 NW DGW 10 S BFF 10 SSW HLC 40 ESE SLN 20 NNE SZL 35 WSW SPI 20 NNE DNV 20 SW FWA 10 S MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SAV 40 S OGB 20 WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 60 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... POWERFUL 110KT MID LEVEL JET MAX IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...MID MS VALLEY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LYING FROM SOUTHEAST OK...ACROSS SOUTHERN AR...INTO NORTHWEST MS. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL BE BY 12Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER DARK. LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 00Z-12Z /EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT BY 12Z/. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH ELEVATED CORES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL FROM WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...LEADING INTO A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON TUESDAY. SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK DUE TO PROXIMITY OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT /RUC-NMM FARTHER SOUTH...NAM-GFS FARTHER NORTH/. POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADE WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...OH/TN VALLEYS... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY STARTING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN TN AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA. ..HART.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 20:14:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 15:14:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511142014.jAEKEDbA010461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142007 SWODY1 SPC AC 142005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SZL 15 NE VIH MVN 30 SSE BMG 10 SW LUK 50 ENE LEX 20 SE LOZ 35 NE CHA 35 WNW RMG 20 WSW CBM SHV 45 NNW TYR 10 E DUA BVO 25 SW CNU 35 SSW SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW BUF 30 SE LBE 35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 65 S PSX 50 WNW LRD ...CONT... 40 WSW DRT 25 SSW SJT 15 ENE ABI 35 ENE SPS 10 NNW OKC 15 W END 25 NNW GAG 35 E RTN 25 E GUC 40 NNE GJT 20 SSE BPI 35 E JAC 35 NNE WRL 20 NW DGW 10 S BFF 10 SSW HLC 40 SE SLN 35 NE MKC 40 NW SPI 30 NNW DNV FWA 50 ENE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE SAV 40 S OGB 20 WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 100 ESE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...EXTREME ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN TN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AR. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF HAS SPREAD NWD INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. WV IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THAT WILL SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS CROSSING INTO THE COOLER AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE BASED. POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET STREAK THAT WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM ERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK AS IT SURGES SEWD AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ..DIAL.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 00:55:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 19:55:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511150054.jAF0svJu017290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150051 SWODY1 SPC AC 150050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW SZL 30 ENE JEF 25 NE SLO 35 SE IND 25 NW LUK 50 ENE LEX 15 SW LOZ 15 SSW CSV 25 S HSV MEI 20 SSE SHV 40 NNW TYR 20 ESE ADM 40 NW BVO 25 SSE EMP 20 WSW SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW DRT 25 SSW SJT 15 ENE ABI 15 NE SPS 25 NW CHK 40 SSW AVK 40 NNW GAG 20 NW CAO 35 N CEZ 40 SE VEL 40 WNW FCL 35 SSE SNY 25 N HLC 20 ENE CNK 20 NNW CDJ 25 W PIA 50 ESE MMO 40 SSW JXN 65 NE MTC ...CONT... 55 NW BUF 30 SE LBE 35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 65 S PSX 50 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE SAV 30 S OGB 40 WSW SOP 35 ESE DAN 40 WSW ORF 55 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM SERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD IMPULSE TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DIGGING THIS LATTER SYSTEM SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADING WRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO LEAD IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER FAR SRN IL WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN KY INTO CNTRL WV. A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALSO EXISTS FROM THIS LOW NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IND INTO W-CNTRL OH. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA SWWD ALONG THE MS RIVER THEN WWD THROUGH CNTRL AR WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL AR AND CNTRL OK. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WAS DEEPENING OVER ERN CO WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ...SERN KS/ERN OK/ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS ADJUSTMENT IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEPENING CO SURFACE LOW. REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PW DATA SHOWING A RAPID NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME /LIKELY ALONG NOSE OF RETURNING ELEVATED MOISTURE SOURCE/ OVER E-CNTRL OK INTO NRN AR AND SRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS NERN OK AND NRN AR/SRN MO...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ. STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A BUOYANT BOUNDARY-LAYER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS INTO TN AND OH VALLEYS WITHIN BROADENING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING CNTRL CONUS SYSTEM. 00Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHEAR THROUGH THE OBSERVED RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER...WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENENCE OF MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 06:00:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 01:00:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511150600.jAF602hu032214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150557 SWODY1 SPC AC 150555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW FLP 35 WNW FAM ALN 30 WSW MTO 15 W BMG 20 SW SDF 10 SW BNA 30 NW MSL 10 N UOX 60 SW MEM 30 N LIT 10 SSW FLP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W FYV 30 WSW SPI 35 ESE MMO 30 ESE SBN 40 SE FWA 30 N LEX 20 WSW HSV 30 S CBM 35 S GLH 20 ENE TXK 35 N DEQ 15 W FYV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ERI 30 SSW CRW 20 NE HSS 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 45 ESE GLS 55 S CLL ACT TUL 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW LRD 55 SSE BWD 10 SW ADM 10 SW BVO 25 NNW STJ 35 S MCW 30 W CWA 10 WSW IMT 60 W ANJ 25 E ANJ ...CONT... 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD 10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...FAR NRN MS AND NERN AR... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SERN MO...CNTRL/ERN IL...MUCH OF IND...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NWRN AL AND NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... ...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS MO/IL AND INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM SWRN MO AT 15/12Z...TO NEAR STL AT 15/18Z AND INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR ONTARIO BY 16/12Z. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM CNTRL OK/AR NEWD TO ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD AHEAD OF THIS LOW WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... 15/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM THE NWRN/CNTRL GULF COAST NWD INTO THE WRN TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WITH 60 DEWPOINTS NOW TO THE OH RIVER. PERSISTENT AND STRONG SWLY LLJ OF 50-60 KTS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL AID THE RAPID NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FORECAST AS FAR N AS NRN IND BY 16/00Z. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND MOIST ADIABATIC...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM ERN OK/SERN KS EWD ACROSS AR AND SRN MO. WHILE MANY OF THIS STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED WITHIN A MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY-LAYER. INDEED...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND AR VALID 15/12-15Z INDICATE A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-55 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2. THUS...EXPECT THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL EXIST FROM ERN OK ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO. FARTHER TO THE N AND E...STORMS MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/SEVERITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SRN IL SWWD INTO AR AS DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE SURFACE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. DEVELOPING MODERATE INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THIS ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING AND LEWP STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT WITH A DISTINCT THREAT OF A SERIAL TYPE DERECHO WIND EVENT ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. OVERNIGHT...A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 12:48:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 07:48:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511151247.jAFClEIZ031822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151244 SWODY1 SPC AC 151243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FLP 35 WNW FAM 25 NNE CMI 10 N LAF 15 WNW MIE 20 N SDF 10 SW BNA MSL 45 NNW MEI 30 SSE GLH 15 SSW LIT 20 ESE FLP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW HRO 30 WSW SPI 25 N VPZ 35 SSW JXN 40 SE FWA 30 N LEX 15 NNE HSV 25 ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 40 NE IER 35 ESE TXK 40 WSW RUE 15 WNW HRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE GLS 55 S CLL 25 ENE AUS 40 NW TPL 25 ENE SEP 10 S DUA 20 NNE MLC 35 W GMJ 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN ...CONT... 25 N ERI 50 WSW EKN 30 SE TRI 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD 10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF ...CONT... 65 WNW LRD 55 SSE BWD 10 SW ADM 10 SW BVO 20 NNE FNB 25 SSW MCW 30 W CWA 10 WSW IMT 60 W ANJ 25 E ANJ. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE EVENING FOR ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...SE MO...WRN KY...SRN IL...AND WRN INDIANA.... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM CENTRAL MS AND NE AR NNEWD TO THE INDIANA/MI BORDER.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI AREA.... *** AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY *** ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVER WRN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD/NEWD TO AR/MO/IL BY THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME NE OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY SGF TO STL TO ORD THROUGH THIS EVENING. S OF THE LOW...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE/ IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS E TX/SE OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...S OF A WARM FRONT ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER AND WWD ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS...BENEATH 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY BY THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL LIFT NWD TODAY ACROSS IL/INDIANA/OH AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR THROUGH MIDDAY...AND DEVELOP SWWD INTO NE TX...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO ALSO INCREASE BY 16-18Z ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR/SE MO WITH THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MOIST PROFILES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2...ALL SUGGEST THAT LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. THESE THREATS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS AR/SE MO THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EWD/NEWD FROM THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER E WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR/MOISTURE AXIS IN THE FORM OF SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL BANDS ACROSS ERN AR AND MS NNEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW INTENSE/DAMAGING TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM CENTRAL MS/AR NNEWD ACROSS WRN TN/KY TO SRN IL AND SRN/CENTRAL INDIANA. BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXHAUST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A FORCED SQUALL LINE WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 16:41:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 11:41:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511151640.jAFGec8C022268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151630 SWODY1 SPC AC 151628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FLP 35 WNW FAM 25 NNE CMI 40 SSE SBN 35 ENE FWA 30 SSE DAY 15 ESE BNA MSL 45 NNW MEI 30 SSE GLH 15 SSW LIT 20 ESE FLP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW UNO 45 NW STL 30 WSW VPZ 30 NNE BEH 30 ENE FNT 35 NE CLE 40 WSW UNI 35 NE HSV 25 ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 40 NE IER 35 ESE TXK 35 NE DEQ 20 WNW UNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BUF 25 WSW LBE 30 E TRI 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 45 ESE GLS 30 NNW PSX 25 SSE AUS 35 NNW AUS 20 SSE CRS 35 SSE PRX 30 SE RKR 45 WNW UNO 30 SSE IRK 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD 10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF ...CONT... 40 SSE 6R6 55 SSE BWD 30 ESE DAL 15 WNW RKR 10 NW TOP 40 SE SDA 40 SSE CWA 40 SSW ESC 35 NNW PLN 25 E ANJ. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO LWR MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LWR MI AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS TO THE WRN GULF CST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO A DEEP YET PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW. THE LOW SHOULD REACH ERN LK SUPERIOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SWEEPS NNE FROM SE KS/SW MO TO LK HURON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW IN S CNTRL MO SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO E OF KSTL BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE NNE ACROSS KCHI AND KSSM TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE LOW ATTM IS SOMEWHAT SEGMENTED ...WITH SHALLOW RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LOCATED S OF MAIN FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LIFT RAPIDLY N INTO SRN LWR MI LATER TODAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES E ACROSS THE MID/LWR MS VLY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N INTO SW ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... BROAD SWATH OF SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NNE IN WIDE WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING MO SURFACE LOW. COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP SWLY SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE FROM SRN MI AND MUCH OF THE OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HIGH WIND AND HAIL. MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER WRN AR. THIS SHOULD HEIGHTEN SEVERE RISK AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES EWD AND DEVELOPS SWD INTO E TX/LA LATER TODAY. 70-80 KT DEEP SHEAR AND QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN QUASI-DISCRETE DESPITE LINEAR FORCING AND ORIENTATION OF FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO SHEAR. THUS...STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL. OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN AR/NRN MS N ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH AND SRN MI. PRESENCE OF VERY LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. SETUP SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. WHILE THE MS/OH VLY STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN SEGMENTS/SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN... AT LEAST IN PART...QUASI-DISCRETE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RISK OF WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REACH AS FAR E/NE AS THE UPR OH VLY AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 19:56:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 14:56:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511151955.jAFJtHV1021590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151951 SWODY1 SPC AC 151950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM POF 20 NW SLO 20 WNW DNV 40 SSE SBN 35 ENE FWA 30 SSE DAY 30 SE BWG 15 E MSL 40 SSW CBM 30 SSE GLH PBF POF. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLV 30 NE BMI 20 S CGX 20 NE BEH 20 E FNT 35 NE CLE 40 WSW UNI 35 NE HSV 25 ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 30 NE IER 10 ESE ELD 20 N ARG BLV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ROC LBE BLF LGC 30 SE MOB 40 SW BVE ...CONT... 30 S GLS 30 NNW PSX 55 SSW CLL 15 SSE CLL 10 NW LFK 15 E SHV LIT SPI 25 WNW MMO 30 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 65 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LRD 35 NNW LFK 30 SSE TXK 30 WSW BVX 20 WNW SPI 35 NW BRL 10 ESE VOK 40 SSW ESC 35 NNW PLN 15 E ANJ ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 50 E BFD HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 NNE ILM FLO CAE 40 WSW AGS 35 ENE ABY 35 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...IN...SWRN OH AND WRN KY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE WRN GULF COAST... ...E TX/LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR STL AT 19Z AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING AND LIFTING THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY NEWD TO NEAR CHI BY 00Z...AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN IL/IN INTO OH AND WILL LIFT NWD TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT...FROM ERN MO SWWD INTO ERN/SRN TX...RACES EWD THROUGH THE OHIO/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. IN THE WARM SECTOR...A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO MO THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TITLED AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...SOME TORNADIC...WERE ONGOING FROM ERN MO/IL SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING AND THE STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD FAVOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 1KM SHEAR FROM 25-40 KT INDICATES TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN AR/WRN TN NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING/ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...THE QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS...SUGGEST THAT LONG TRACK AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REFER TO TORNADO WATCHES...864...865...866 AND 867. AS THE LOW LIFTS NWD THIS EVENING...THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN TX/LA/ERN AR AND MS. LONG AND SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS PLUS LACK OF STRONG LINEAR ASCENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH LONG TRACK TORNADOES. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WHILE THE MS/OH VLY STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN SEGMENTS/SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS TONIGHT...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST THE STORMS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE UPR OH VLY AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..IMY.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 00:50:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 19:50:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511160050.jAG0o8M1009080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160047 SWODY1 SPC AC 160045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV 30 E OWB 30 NNW SDF 55 W LUK 20 W LUK 35 SE LUK 30 N LOZ 45 SW LOZ 30 WNW CHA 25 NW HSV 45 NNW MSL CKV. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW HOP 25 ENE OWB 25 SW MIE 25 WSW TOL 35 SSE DTW CLE 15 SSE ZZV 20 W TYS 20 NE TCL 10 SSW CBM 20 WNW TUP 10 SW HOP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE GLS 30 ENE HOU 25 S POE 35 ENE MLU 20 WNW UOX 45 NE MKL LAF SBN 10 NNE AZO 20 SE MBS 55 ENE BAX ...CONT... 45 N ROC 25 ESE LBE 30 SSW PSK 15 NNE CSG 15 N CEW 35 SSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MFE 40 ESE LFK 25 NNW MLU MEM 25 SSE MTO 35 NNW DNV 20 SSE RAC 35 NNW MBL 25 NNW PLN 30 E ANJ ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 50 E BFD HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 NNE ILM FLO CAE 40 WSW AGS 35 ENE ABY 35 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER MIDDLE TN...CNTRL KY INTO SERN IND... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER ERN IND...MUCH OF OH//KY/TN...NERN MS AND NRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING*** ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORK INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100-110 KT JET STREAK FROM NRN OK/SRN KS NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER NRN IL/SRN WI WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL NY. TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED FROM THIS SWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... COMPLEX...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM IND/OH SSWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOWING AND LEWP STRUCTURES. CURRENTLY MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXIST ACROSS SRN KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN WHERE SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENTLY BEING OBSERVED. HERE...IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z BNA SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 400 M2/S2. CORRIDORS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIKELY TONIGHT AS CONVECTIVE MODE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE LINEAR. FARTHER TO THE N OVER ERN IND INTO OH...CONVECTIVE MODE HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUPERCELLULAR TO MORE LINEAR OVER THE PAST HOUR WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS...THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD. OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF COAST...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAN AND BMX INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 13 G/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS MOISTURE WAS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN MS INTO WRN AL REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH 00Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 250 M2/S2. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 05:50:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 00:50:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511160549.jAG5nObs023156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160547 SWODY1 SPC AC 160545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE CHS 15 WNW CHS 30 ENE SPA 25 SSE BUF 50 NE ROC 45 W GFL 15 SSW BDL 55 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW APF ...CONT... 65 SE GPT 30 SSE SEM 30 S RMG 50 ESE LOZ 25 SE ZZV 20 NNW YNG 50 NNW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WILL PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE NERN GULF COAST AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. ...NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY AT 16/12Z ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY/PA SWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW MODEL DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NY/PA WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH STORMS BEING DRIVEN BY THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND PERHAPS A MAUL. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CLOUD-BEARING MEAN WINDS AOA 50-60 KTS INDICATE THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT CAN REACH THE SURFACE. SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND PERHAPS SERN PA/NJ. EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER THIS AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH A RESULTANT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 13:04:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 08:04:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511161304.jAGD46qq021831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161301 SWODY1 SPC AC 161300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ILM 25 SW SOP 45 NNE HKY 15 E BLF 15 NNE EKN 25 S DUJ 35 NNE BFD 30 SW MSS 30 ENE SLK 10 NNW BAF 55 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW APF ...CONT... 50 SSW PNS 25 NE TOI 60 NW AND 15 WNW BKW 15 NE PIT 50 W BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM VA/NC NWD TO NY.... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/120 KT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL LIFT NNEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WRN QUEBEC. S/SE OF THE OCCLUDED LOW...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. ...NY TO VA/NC TODAY... A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/CENTRAL PA/WRN VA THIS MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 75 MILES W OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND DOES COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO A BIT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE CLOUD/RAIN BAND AND W OF THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER/RELATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY. STILL...ROUGHLY MOIST NEUTRAL PROFILES AND 50-60 KT SSWLY FLOW WITHIN 1-2 KM OF THE GROUND MAY SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 16:32:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 11:32:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511161631.jAGGVOrJ028033@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161614 SWODY1 SPC AC 161612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW EFK 25 ENE PSF 35 SW GON ...CONT... 20 E ILM 35 SE CLT 40 NNE HKY 25 NNW LYH 10 SE SYR 10 NW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PNS 25 NE TOI 60 NW AND 15 WNW BKW 15 NE PIT 50 W BUF ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB 55 NNW PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...NORTHEAST/WRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY/NERN PA... COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS PRIMARILY NEWD INTO ERN CANADA WITH TAIL-END OF DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREADING ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TWO NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EVIDENT THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...WRN MOST LINE APPEARS TIED TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WILL LIKELY BECOME DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND MAY HINDER OVERALL THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER... STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND TEMPERED AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2447 FOR MORE DETAIL/. EWD EXTENT OF ANY RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY CURRENT WEDGE FRONT NOW PULLING NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND EWD INTO VT. ...SERN NY/ERN PA SWWD INTO THE PIEDMONT... FARTHER SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...DEEP ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEING DRIVEN MORE BY LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THIS FRONT EWD TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SEWD INTO SERN VA/CENTRAL NC BY THE EARLY EVENING. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MODEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM FAR SERN NY INTO ERN VA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL OVERCOME WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON MORNING RAOBS AND SHOULD BOOST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S. THUS...EXPECT INCREASING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL/ERN PA SWWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS LINE MOVES EWD AND BUILDS SWWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 19:56:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 14:56:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511161955.jAGJtFEa003674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161953 SWODY1 SPC AC 161951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ILM 45 SE CLT 30 ENE HKY 40 W DCA 40 W ABE 30 NW ALB 70 NNW EFK ...CONT... 60 N EFK 20 ENE MPV 25 WNW CON 20 W BOS 40 S ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AAF 30 ENE ABY 20 NNW GSP 45 NNE SHD 20 ESE IPT 35 NE UCA 75 NNE MSS ...CONT... 50 E SGJ 70 NW PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NERN STATES... ...NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES... THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NY SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 HAVE ADVECTED AS FAR NWD AS SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MUCAPES RANGE FROM BELOW 250 J/KG OVER NEW ENGLAND TO AOB 800 J/KG OVER CNTRL AND ERN NC. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CURRENTLY OVER NY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TODAY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER SWD...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...LOW TOPPED FORCED LINES OF STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER SWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NC WILL BE WEAKER THAN OVER THE NERN STATES BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF CONVECTION. SOME INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY E OF THE APPALACHIANS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 00:46:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 19:46:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511170045.jAH0jgeW010414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170044 SWODY1 SPC AC 170042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ECG 45 WNW ECG 25 ENE AVC 10 WSW RIC 15 W NHK 25 NNW SBY 50 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ILM 30 NNE CRE 40 WSW SOP 10 SSE DAN 45 ENE CHO 15 N PHL 50 ESE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A BIT ACROSS SE VA INTO SERN MD ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EAST AT ROUGHLY 25KT...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT QUICKER TO THE NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM WAL REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800J/KG. GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...BOW TYPE STRUCTURES REMAIN POSSIBLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. RIC RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 33KT AS CONVECTIVE LINE PASSED THAT AREA. WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SHIFTING NORTH INTO SERN CANADA...AND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WANING. ..DARROW.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 05:27:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 00:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511170526.jAH5QGjW013110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170524 SWODY1 SPC AC 170522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO PROGRESS SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL YIELD NEGLIGIBLE TSTM PROBABILITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW CG STRIKES COULD OCCUR INVOF GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY/LAKE CONVECTION. ..GUYER/DARROW.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 12:41:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 07:41:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511171240.jAHCet3Q004991@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171239 SWODY1 SPC AC 171237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST AND UPPER RIDGING INTO THE WRN STATES. RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES OVER THE CONUS. TRAILING SRN PERIPHERY OF WRN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS PER 12Z FL PENINSULA RAOBS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE NON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING. OTHERWISE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT/SHALLOW CONVECTION INVOF THE UPPER/ERN GREAT LAKES. ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 16:42:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 11:42:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511171641.jAHGfRBJ018609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171630 SWODY1 SPC AC 171629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DOWNSTREAM OF BLOCK IN UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ...STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES CONVERGE INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH NOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PRIMARY EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW... HOWEVER ..CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ...FLORIDA... WIND SHIFT/SHALLOW COLD FRONTAL SURGE HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS AND THE KEYS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE... RELATIVELY WARM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS. ...GREAT LAKES... CORE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK/SPARSE IN COVERAGE AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ..KERR.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 19:48:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 14:48:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511171947.jAHJlrV3015752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171945 SWODY1 SPC AC 171944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN US. A LARGE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD TONIGHT REINFORCING THE NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE SERN AND ERN US AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 00:43:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 19:43:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511180042.jAI0gE6N029024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180039 SWODY1 SPC AC 180037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NY... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SHALLOW/WEAK CONVECTION TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 05:32:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 00:32:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511180531.jAI5Vd6g001061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180530 SWODY1 SPC AC 180528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM THE ROCKIES EWD...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE CNTRL STATES AND NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SE STATES AND PREVALENT DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES THIS PERIOD. NEAR REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA/KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVE WARM LAYER/WEAK LAPSE RATES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW...WITH TSTM/LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES NEGLIGIBLE. ..GUYER/DARROW.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 12:50:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 07:50:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511181249.jAICnMTD009872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181247 SWODY1 SPC AC 181245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SE STATES...WITH DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS KEEPING TSTM PROBABILITIES NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE OF MID LEVEL WARM LAYER/WEAK LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW...WITH TSTM/LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES MINIMAL. ..GUYER/HALES.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 16:31:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 11:31:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511181630.jAIGUVwR018272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181620 SWODY1 SPC AC 181618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN NOAM THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ALBERTA SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE E COAST AND MINIMIZE TSTM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FL STRAITS. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. WARM LAYER AT 700 MB AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL LIMITED. FARTHER W...WATER VAPOR AND UPR AIR DATA SHOW A WEAK MID/UPR LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER COAHUILA IN NE MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS ALBERTA IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY SEWD. ANY LIGHTNING OCCURRING WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE RIO GRANDE. ..CORFIDI/RACY.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 19:45:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 14:45:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511181944.jAIJi7BH008056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181941 SWODY1 SPC AC 181940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN UNITED STATES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS STATES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. A SECOND FRONT OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SRN AND ERN US WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION OFF THE SERN US COAST AND ACROSS FL. DUE TO BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 00:49:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 19:49:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511190048.jAJ0mXSQ004730@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190046 SWODY1 SPC AC 190044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM EYW/MFL EXHIBIT A PSEUDO ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY THROUGH 400MB. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL AID ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF LIGHTNING. ..DARROW.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 05:36:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 00:36:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511190535.jAJ5ZC9U010160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190533 SWODY1 SPC AC 190531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 40 E DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED ZONE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT NELY OFFSHORE COMPONENT NOTED FOR ALL BUT FL DURING THE PERIOD. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION PROFILES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX...BUT MAIN BAROCLINICITY WILL EVOLVE JUST OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA. PERSISTENT ELY COMPONENT AND VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR GRADUALLY MOISTENING PROFILES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FORECASTING DEEP...MOIST ADIABATIC...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG MLCAPE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 11:45:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 06:45:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511191144.jAJBiRki009147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191143 SWODY1 SPC AC 191141 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SRQ 25 NE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO 20 NW ALI 45 SSW CLL 10 WNW LCH 40 SW 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RESIDE IN TWO AREAS. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...WHERE ENELY FLOW WILL AID IN MOISTENING LOW LEVEL PROFILES WITH TIME. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. COMBINED WITH A DEEP MID-HIGH LEVEL FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD FROM T.S GAMMA...WILL SUPPORT HIGH PWAT VALUES AND MODEST MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE... CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. FURTHER WEST...THE DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL OCCUR TODAY IN RESPONSE TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THIS REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS ...ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING AND COOLING MID LEVEL PROFILES. MODERATE WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /ROOTED AROUND 700 MB/ MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST. ..CROSBIE/HALES.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 16:34:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 11:34:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511191633.jAJGXgPa021536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191629 SWODY1 SPC AC 191627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW SRQ 35 W AGR 20 SW SGJ 35 NNE SGJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 40 SSE ALI 10 NE ALI 10 SSW VCT 10 NNE PSX 45 SSE LBX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUN MORNING. DUE TO SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 12Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED AT 700 MB AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...AS LEAD WAVE CONTINUES EWD INTO THE RIDGE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY. ...SRN FL... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST PROFILES AT MFL AND EYW WITH DEEP ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FL THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...EFFECTS OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY HELP TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE CENTRAL FL EAST COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN. ...S COASTAL TX... THICK CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAPPED LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS UPPER LOW SINKS SWD AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE S TX. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 20:05:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 15:05:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511192004.jAJK4IjV010141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192001 SWODY1 SPC AC 191959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SRQ 30 E SRQ 30 NW AGR 30 WSW DAB 25 SW SSI 20 E SAV 40 SE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 50 S ALI 15 S NIR 10 SSW VCT 10 NNE PSX 45 SSE LBX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE SCNTRL US. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING AND MOVE SWD INTO THE SRN STATES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A SUB-SYNOPTIC SFC LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH ELY WINDS REMAINING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE SFC LOW AND SFC HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST A SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE IN THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN FL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT. AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 01:04:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 20:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511200103.jAK13P6A010456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200101 SWODY1 SPC AC 200059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SRQ 30 E SRQ 30 NW AGR 30 WSW DAB 25 SW SSI 20 E SAV 55 ESE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 50 S ALI 15 S NIR 10 SSW VCT 10 NNE PSX 40 SSE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S COASTAL TX... POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NWRN GULF WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER SE TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFF THE TX COAST...GIVEN DEEP LAYER ASCENT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE...WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS AT CRP/BRO SUGGESTING ANY INLAND STORMS WILL BE ROOTED BETWEEN 600-650 MB. ...SRN FL... 18Z GFS APPEARS TO BE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH TPC GUIDANCE FOR T.S GAMMA...AND THE LIMITED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW LOCATED S OF THE FL PENINSULA. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SC COAST SWWD TO THE COAST OF NERN FL. E/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL FL WILL MAINTAIN MOIST ADVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITHIN WAA REGIME. ..PETERS.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 05:52:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 00:52:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511200551.jAK5prEh013960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200549 SWODY1 SPC AC 200547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S 7R4 20 ESE BTR 25 SSE PIB 40 SW DHN 15 SSE MGR 30 SE VDI 30 W CHS 55 S CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED OF POSITIVELY TILTED CENTRAL U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH TODAY AS IT MOVES SWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND THEN BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER/DEEPER WHICH AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO SRN GA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH EACH RUN...THIS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS CLOSER TO THE NAM WHICH TAKES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE NERN GULF OFF THE FL COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CENTRAL GULF CYCLOGENESIS AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SERN U.S./FL WILL SUPPORT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. ...COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL GULF TO SE U.S./FL... GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...BUT GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY OFFSHORE OF SC TO ERN FL ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO NRN FL AND INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AS ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IF THE WARM SECTOR IS ABLE TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...THEN THERE WOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NWRN FL. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS OUTCOME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 12:43:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 07:43:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511201242.jAKCgB3v008643@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201239 SWODY1 SPC AC 201238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE 7R4 20 ESE BTR 25 SSE PIB 25 SW MAI 15 SSE MGR 35 NNW SAV 30 NNW CRE 30 SE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN FL... UPPER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOWER MO VALLEY SWWD TO SWRN TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD. BY LATER TONIGHT MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES THAT TROUGH WILL SWING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD ACROSS SERN STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO ON OLD FRONTAL ZONE THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES WWD FROM CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE GULF. WHILE THE DEEPENING OF THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER 12Z MON...MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER INLAND TO VICINITY OF GA/FL BORDER BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING FRONTAL ZONE NWD ACROSS FL TO NEAR GA BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW A MOIST BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SPREAD NWD AS WELL. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY OF BOTH TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED IN THE WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH AND N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW LATE TONIGHT. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 16:31:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 11:31:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511201630.jAKGU0El020402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201627 SWODY1 SPC AC 201625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW HUM 45 WSW SEM 15 SW ANB 20 W ATL 25 NNW MCN 45 SW AGS 10 ESE AGS 15 E CAE FLO 35 NW ILM 50 SE OAJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NNELY JET STREAK OVER KS IN MORNING RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT UPR LOW NOW OVER SW MO SHOULD AMPLIFY SWD THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO NE LA BY 12Z MONDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN GULF NOW NEAR 26.5N/87.5W EXPECTED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY NE TODAY. THE FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. FARTHER NE...AN ADDITIONAL BUT PROBABLY WEAKER SURFACE CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM ALONG COASTAL TROUGH E OF KCHS/KMYR. ...NRN/WRN FL... BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY/TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM FRONT NOW NEAR LK OKEECHOBEE REDEVELOPS NWWD. THE FRONT SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ERN GULF LOW AND REACH THE BIG BEND AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS SETUP WOULD ALLOW MOIST...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ AIR TO SPREAD N INTO NRN FL AND PERHAPS FAR SRN GA. DEEP SSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OVER THE NERN GULF EARLY MONDAY AS UPR SYSTEM AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SSE INTO LA. ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAY SUPPORT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY INVOF WARM FRONT...AND ALONG ANY EXISTING WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS OVER THE NERN GULF. IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO FORM ...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN THE MEAN TIME...SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY S OF WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND NEAR WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH INTERSECTION ALONG THE E CST. RELATIVELY WARM LAYER NEAR/ABOVE 500 MB MAY DELAY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N FL...ADJACENT PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF CST...AND INTO PARTS OF GA/SC AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPR TROUGH. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 19:50:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 14:50:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511201948.jAKJmsRn028396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201947 SWODY1 SPC AC 201945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW HUM 50 WNW GZH 10 SSW ATL 40 SW SOP 40 ENE HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND FL. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN FL WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS WILL HELP DESTABILIZATION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TALLAHASSEE LATE TONIGHT SHOW STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN NRN FL LATE TONIGHT. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 850 MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL. IF A TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPS...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT PARALLEL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAVE ACCESS TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 00:59:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 19:59:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511210058.jAL0vusa024192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210056 SWODY1 SPC AC 210055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW HUM 50 WNW GZH 10 SSW ATL 40 SW SOP 55 ENE HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS TO ERN TX...WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS SEWD AND BECOMES NEUTRALLY ORIENTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS FORECAST PERIOD DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SERN STATES WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST...NEAR CHS...LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...NRN/WRN FL... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N 87W OR 190 SSW AAF...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AN EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDED SWWD ACROSS NRN FL TO THE SURFACE WAVE OVER THE GULF. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE CENTRAL FL WARM FRONT TO MOVE NWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE NRN FL SURFACE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE FL BIG BEND REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW MAY MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE GA/FL BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH ATTENDANT UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SPREADING INLAND OVER NWRN FL. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NRN FL WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. ...COASTAL SC... SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER COASTAL SERN SC ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60 F... WITH VALUES FARTHER S OVER COASTAL GA/NERN FL INTO THE LOWER 60S. SSELY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT JUST OFF THE SC COAST AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF CHS. IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY AND MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ARE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE SC COAST TOWARD 12Z...THEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS OCCURRENCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR COASTAL SC. ..PETERS.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 05:47:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 00:47:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511210546.jAL5krWw001405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210544 SWODY1 SPC AC 210542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW CTY 20 NNW GNV 30 NNW SSI 25 NNE SAV 20 SE OGB 20 SSW FAY 15 ENE GSB 50 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW BVE 35 NNW GZH 20 SW GSP 30 SW DOV 40 ESE NEL ...CONT... 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC/SC SWD ALONG GA COAST TO FL... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL TRACK EWD TO THE SERN STATES...THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM NWRN FL TO NERN NC BY 22/00Z...AND THEN TO CAPE COD BY END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE SC COAST NEAR CHS AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THIS LOW AND THE NWRN FL LOW CONSOLIDATING INTO A PRIMARY LOW BY THIS EVENING ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST. ...GA COAST NEWD ACROSS ERN SC/NC... AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z THIS MORNING FROM NRN FL NNEWD ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS MAY TEND TO LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH TODAY...BUT CURRENT OUTLOOK THINKING EXPECTS THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND OVER ERN SC/NC. ONE OR TWO SURFACE WAVES WILL LIKELY TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS SURFACE FRONT WITH WARM SECTOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WARM SECTOR MUCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS/SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...GIVEN THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INLAND...AS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS ERN SC/NC. FARTHER S...SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GA COAST AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. PROGGED LOW LCLS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOWS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. ...FL PENINSULA... SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF FL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFFSHORE THE SRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND COMBINED WITH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. THE PRIMARY LINE SHOULD BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 12:58:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 07:58:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511211257.jALCvdGJ011810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211255 SWODY1 SPC AC 211253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW CTY 20 NNW GNV 30 NNW SSI 25 NNE SAV 20 SE OGB 20 SSW FAY 15 ENE GSB 50 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PFN 20 WSW GZH 25 SW SEM 30 ENE ATL 15 SE GSO 10 ESE RIC 35 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... STRONG VORT/UPPER LOW LOWER MS VALLEY 12Z WILL RESPOND TO LARGE SCALE TROUGHING UNDERWAY ERN U.S. AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TO OFF CAROLINA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFF CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS NERN FL INTO ERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OFFSHORE SRN SC COAST AND WILL DEEPEN NEWD ALLOWING A SMALL WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INTO COASTAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE DEEPENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH STRONG MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER NE A BETTER CHANCE OF ROTATING STORMS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE. AGAIN A MOIST BUT ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO PRIMARILY BRIEF WIND DAMAGE. THERE IS A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY COASTAL NC WHERE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 16:41:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 11:41:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511211640.jALGdvaZ027407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211629 SWODY1 SPC AC 211628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PIE 30 ENE SGJ 55 SE SAV 15 NW SAV 15 WSW OGB 30 NNE FLO 15 ENE GSB 50 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM ...CONT... 50 E AAF 30 ENE MAI 25 E TOI 10 S LGC 45 SE CLT 20 NW ORF 35 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS AND FL... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOSED LOW NOW ENTERING MS PHASES WITH STRONG NRN STREAM JET TO MAINTAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SERN SEABOARD TODAY. THE MAIN SURFACE CENTER SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS ITS ACCELERATES NNE TO OFF THE NJ/LONG ISLAND CST TUESDAY MORNING. ...ERN NC... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E/NE ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN FROM SURFACE LOW IN SE GA. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES NE THROUGH A SUBSYNOPTIC LOW NEAR KILM. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NC CSTL PLAIN DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LATTER FEATURE...AND THE MOST RAPID LOW LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION /REF MCD 2451/. RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IN CONFLUENCE BAND EXTENDING SSE FROM THE KILM SURFACE WAVE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC AND ERN PARTS OF THE NC CSTL PLAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN SSWLY...PARALLEL TO WARM FRONT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 70 KTS. COUPLED WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VEERING PRESENT INVOF BOUNDARY /0-1 KM SRH UP TO 400 M2 S2/...SETUP COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NNE TOWARD THE VA BORDER WITH TIME BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MAIN SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES JUST OFF THE NC/VA CST. ...ERN SC/SRN NC... IN WAKE OF PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REGION...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF GA LOW AS THAT SYSTEM ELONGATES NEWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH LOW NOW NEAR KILM. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SHALLOW COOL LAYER. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY...HOWEVER ...POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHEN IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM ACCELERATING UPR TROUGH. ...CNTRL/S FL... VEERED DEEP WIND FIELD S OF DEEPENING SERN STATES LOW WILL LIMIT DEPTH/DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MUCAPE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO INDEED FORM. ..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 20:04:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 15:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511212003.jALK3QMf010502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212001 SWODY1 SPC AC 211959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRE 40 WNW ILM 35 SSW GSB 15 ENE GSB 45 ENE ECG ...CONT... 45 W APF 35 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM ...CONT... 50 S SRQ 25 E OCF 20 S AYS 30 WNW AHN 45 ENE RMG 50 SSE TYS 25 ENE SPA 25 S DAN 30 NNW ORF 35 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL... ...COASTAL NC... COMPLEX/ELONGATED SURFACE LOW -- COMPRISED OF THREE SMALL-SCALE CENTERS ATTM -- CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SRN NC. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/E OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE SLY/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH MOST FAVORABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE...A NARROW WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COAST -- AND PERHAPS EXPAND SLIGHTLY INLAND -- UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NEWD TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE NC COAST -- WHERE A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL... THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS DECIDEDLY VEERED/WSWLY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXES. MOST ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS IS OCCURRING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR JAX TO JUST E OF SRQ ATTM. THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK...DIURNAL HEATING OF FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WOULD SUGGEST THAT A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL PERSISTS. THOUGH MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES...A FEW SMALL/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL END ENTIRELY AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SERN FL COAST THIS EVENING. ..GOSS.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 00:32:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 19:32:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511220031.jAM0VlDh014350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220029 SWODY1 SPC AC 220027 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SSI 25 ESE AHN 10 SW AND 30 W CLT 25 S DAN 10 NE DOV 45 E ACY ...CONT... 40 SE ISP 55 ESE PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL NC... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY/STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NEGATIVELY TILTED NEWD TOWARD NC/VA TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN NC...WILL DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A 980-985 MB LOW OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A SMALL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN A LOW TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNTIL THE SERN NC SURFACE LOW MOVES NE OF THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...STRONG FORCING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ABOVE 700 MB FOR A THREAT OF ELEVATED NON-SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ...SRN FL... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND OFFSHORE OF SRN FL THIS EVENING. GIVEN STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM FL AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER LAND. THUS...SEVERE AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR FL. ..PETERS.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 05:31:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 00:31:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511220529.jAM5TvHB028246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220527 SWODY1 SPC AC 220526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JFK 25 SE EEN 35 NNW AUG 20 ENE CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 23/00Z...AND THEN OVER ERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /200-240 METERS/ SPREAD NWD WITH THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SHOULD BE ENHANCED FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITHIN STRONG WAA REGIME...AS 85-100 KT SSELY LLJ NOSES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODEST ELEVATED CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFFSHORE...WITH SOME THREAT INLAND ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ...SRN CA... A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST. DESPITE RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WITH THE TROUGHS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND ALONG PARTS OF THE SRN CA COAST. GIVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING TO OCCUR INLAND...A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 12:32:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 07:32:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511221231.jAMCVdn0003888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221230 SWODY1 SPC AC 221228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S ISP 15 N ORH 25 NW PWM 20 N HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING STORM BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES JUST OFFSHORE DELMARVA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH WARM SECTOR REMAINING OFFSHORE ONLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION. EXAMINING 12Z BKX SOUNDING REVEALS A SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE LIFTED FROM ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINED WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING STORM...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY N/NNEWD THRU ERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND STRONG UPR VORT TODAY. ..HALES.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 16:43:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 11:43:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511221642.jAMGg2gF018179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221625 SWODY1 SPC AC 221624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JFK EWR 25 NNW POU 25 SE GFL 25 E MPV 65 NE BML 20 E CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE MID MS VLY CONTINUES SE INTO GA... AND DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST LIFTS RAPIDLY NNE. SURFACE LOW WITH ERN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE NNE INTO ERN ME/NEW BRUNSWICK BY TONIGHT. A LAYER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD N ACROSS SRN AND ERN NEW ENGLAND IN ZONE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MID ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND RAPID NNE MOTION OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 20:27:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 15:27:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511222026.jAMKPwUi026040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221951 SWODY1 SPC AC 221949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BID 15 WNW PSM 60 NNW AUG 60 NW CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...FEATURING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THOUGH STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY PRECLUDING ANY THREAT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...ELEVATED NEUTRAL TO MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRIKES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRECIPITATION AREA. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... THREAT FOR A SMALL AMOUNT OF EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AS MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND -- AND ASSOCIATED/SMALL-SCALE VORT MAX -- MOVES NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE NUDGED THUNDER AREA A BIT FURTHER WWD THIS FORECAST ACROSS NRN ME...AS SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS ADJUSTMENT IS FURTHER AUGMENTED BY CURRENT LOCATION OF UPPER VORT MAX AND SURFACE LOW -- BOTH SLIGHTLY W OF NAM FORECASTS ATTM. ..GOSS.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 00:56:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 19:56:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511230055.jAN0tEpj028491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230053 SWODY1 SPC AC 230051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD TO ERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE FURTHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS NRN ME AND THEN NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AND STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERE COLD ADVECTION STABILIZES THE AIR MASS. THUS...THREAT FOR LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MINIMAL TO KEEP A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 05:27:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 00:27:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511230526.jAN5QYa0018898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230524 SWODY1 SPC AC 230522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BUF 15 NE ERI CLE 40 W CLE 40 SSE DTW 45 NE MTC 20 ENE BAX 10 ESE APN 10 SE PLN 10 SE MBL 15 ESE MKG 20 WSW AZO 10 NW SBN 25 WSW BEH 35 ENE MKE 55 NW MBL 45 ENE ESC 45 NE ESC 35 W MQT 30 E IWD 20 NNW IWD 25 S GNA 80 NNE CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... 00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A POLAR VORTEX...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN HUDSON BAY...WILL TRACK SWD ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. VERY COLD AIR MASS /-16 TO -24 C AT 850 MB/ WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPILL SSEWD ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS /LS AT +5 TO 9 C AND LH +8 TO 10 C/ MAINLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING EMBEDDED SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN LES BANDS MAINLY OVER AND IN LEE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR THE WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MUCAPE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. THIS THREAT FOR CG LIGHTNING MAY DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 12:10:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 07:10:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511231209.jANC98P3005037@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231207 SWODY1 SPC AC 231205 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BUF 15 NE ERI CLE 40 W CLE 40 SSE DTW 45 NE MTC 20 ENE BAX 10 ESE APN 10 SE PLN 10 SE MBL 15 ESE MKG 20 WSW AZO 10 NW SBN 25 WSW BEH 35 ENE MKE 55 NW MBL 45 ENE ESC 45 NE ESC 35 W MQT 30 E IWD 20 NNW IWD 25 S GNA 80 NNE CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORTEX NOW OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SSE TO NEAR KSSM BY 12Z THURSDAY AS RIDGE PERSISTS IN THE WEST. ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE VORTEX SHOULD REACH NRN MN BY MIDDAY AND THEN SURGE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS WI/MI LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY. ...UPR GRT LKS... VERY COLD AIR MASS /-16 TO -24 C AT 850 MB/ IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS IT SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE UPR GRT LKS /LK SUPERIOR SURFACE TEMPS +5 TO 8 C...LK MI +6 TO +9 C...LK HURON +7 TO 9 C PER BUOY AND STLT DATA/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MIXED LAYER /UP TO 600 MB/...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT LAKE PLUMES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN LEE OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPS FOR THUNDER SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD TO THE E AND SE SIDES OF LKS HURON AND ERIE BY 12Z THURSDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 16:37:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:37:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511231636.jANGaWir004829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231616 SWODY1 SPC AC 231615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MTC 40 SE BAX 30 ESE OSC 10 S APN 35 W APN 20 W HTL 20 S RQB 15 S GRR 15 W AZO BEH 30 WNW BEH 35 ENE MKE 10 SE MTW 50 NE GRB 15 ENE IMT 45 NW IMT 30 SSE IWD 15 E ASX 25 S GNA 50 ENE GNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 WNW JHW 20 NNW FKL 25 NNW YNG 15 E CLE 30 WSW CLE 45 E TOL 40 SE DTW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY COLD UPPER LOW CHARACTERIZED BY -40 C 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SINK SWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP STRONGLY CONVECTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER MI. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE NATION....CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. ...GREAT LAKES / MICHIGAN... PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAINLY AFTER 00Z...ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND EXTENDING INTO NRN MI LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -25 TO -30 C RANGE...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 35-45 KT MEAN WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1KM. LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM IN THE MID 40S F. GREATEST THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR MARQUETTE SEWD INTO FAR NRN/NWRN MI...AND AFTER 06Z...WHEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AROUND LAKE SHORES. ..JEWELL/HALES.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 05:57:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 00:57:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511240556.jAO5uKXO002578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240552 SWODY1 SPC AC 240550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX 15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO BEH 30 SE RAC 25 E OSH 40 SSW IMT 35 SSW CMX 75 ENE GNA ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 20 E ART 30 NNE SYR 20 W SYR 10 SE ROC 30 SW ROC 30 S BUF 10 SW JHW 25 NNE YNG 25 E CLE 25 WNW CLE 25 S DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW BID 15 NNW PVD 20 W PWM AUG 20 ENE BGR 40 NE EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES AREA... COLD AIR IN THE 1 TO 3 KM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SEWD OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKES IN WAKE OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. ...TX... WARM ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ..DIAL.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 06:02:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 01:02:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511240601.jAO61BG2003861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240559 SWODY1 SPC AC 240557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MSS 20 E ART 30 NNE SYR 20 W SYR 10 SE ROC 30 SW ROC 30 S BUF 10 SW JHW 25 NNE YNG 25 E CLE 25 WNW CLE 25 S DTW ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX 15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO BEH 30 SE RAC 25 E OSH 40 SSW IMT 35 SSW CMX 75 ENE GNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW BID 15 NNW PVD 20 W PWM AUG 20 ENE BGR 40 NE EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER GRAPHIC ...GREAT LAKES AREA... COLD AIR IN THE 1 TO 3 KM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SEWD OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKES IN WAKE OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. ...TX... WARM ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ..DIAL.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:56:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:56:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511241255.jAOCt3a1027240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241252 SWODY1 SPC AC 241251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX 15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO 15 E BEH 40 SW MKG 30 ESE MTW 50 NE GRB 20 ENE MQT 130 NE MQT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 10 SW SLK 45 W GFL 20 NW ITH 45 NE BFD 25 NW PIT 20 ENE MFD 25 S DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S ISP 10 N PVD 65 SE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORT HAS DROPPED SSE TO NEAR KSSM AND WILL CONTINUE ESE TO LK ONTARIO LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VLY TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E/SE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT. UPR LOW NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND REACH NW MEXICO AS A DEAMPLIFYING WAVE BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...GRT LKS... SCATTERED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN/WRN NY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NW PA/NE OH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER EXPECTED OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS MIXED LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 600 MB AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES IN COLD AIR /MODIFIED MUCAPE AROUND 750 J PER KG/. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE ERN SHORELINES OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS MIXED LAYER WIND BACKS TO W OR WSWLY. DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER AND STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT PLUMES WITH AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. FARTHER W/N...VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTIVE PLUMES AND LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONTINUING UPSTREAM OVER MI/NERN WI. CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION SHOULD ALSO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY LATER IN THE DAY. ...CAPE COD... AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING POLAR VORT MAY YIELD ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF FAR SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. ...SRN AZ... STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING BAJA LOW SHOULD TRACK S OF THE MEXICAN BORDER ACROSS NRN SONORA. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...EXPECT THAT ANY ELEVATED AND/OR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER AZ WILL REMAIN TOO FEEBLE TO PRODUCE THUNDER. ...RED RIVER VLY TX/OK... LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AS BAJA SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD. WARM ADVECTION IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A C-G STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE RED RIVER VLY AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND COMPARATIVE WEAKNESS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 16:47:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 11:47:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511241646.jAOGkKWL000713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241622 SWODY1 SPC AC 241620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX 15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO 15 E BEH 40 SW MKG 30 ESE MTW 50 NE GRB 20 ENE MQT 130 NE MQT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 10 SW SLK 45 W GFL 20 NW ITH 45 NE BFD 25 NW PIT 20 ENE MFD 25 S DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S ISP 10 N PVD 65 SE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE POLAR VORTEX ROTATING THRU ERN U.S. LARGE SCALE TROUGH. UPPER LOW MOVES FROM CURRENT POSITION OVER LAKE HURON EWD ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM DEEP SURFACE LOW NRN NY SWWD TO ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY. SECONDARY LOW IN PROCESS OF DEVELOPING SERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CENTER AT 16Z VICINITY KBOS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME PRIMARY CENTER TONIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS NERN STATES. THERE WILL BE A NEAR TERM THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS SERN MA IN STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW. HOWEVER BY MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE. ISOLATED THUNDER HAS OCCURRED ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...ERN OH/WRN PA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ABOUT OVER AS CONDITIONS E OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AS POLAR VORTEX TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANY THUNDER SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT AS LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 19:47:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 14:47:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511241946.jAOJkW2O009500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241944 SWODY1 SPC AC 241942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ART 40 NE ART 45 WSW SLK 45 SW SLK 30 NNE UCA 20 NNW UCA 20 N SYR 15 NE ROC 25 NW BUF BUF 20 SSE BUF 25 ENE JHW 15 SSE JHW 25 S ERI 20 N YNG 20 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW BHB 55 SSW BHB 20 S AUG 20 NNW AUG 45 SSE HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER GRTLKS... SURGE OF COLD CP AIR MASS HAS SPREAD INTO THE HUDSON VLY OF NY AND INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MID-AFTN. A BAND OF SNOW/RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED ISOLD LIGHTNING THIS AFTN THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUMES HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THE GRTLKS THIS AFTN. MOST INTENSE BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN BECOME MORE WLY OVERNIGHT...LIKELY FAVORING DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS NEAR/S OF KART...AND FROM EAST OF KCLE ACROSS KERI INTO SWRN NY S OF KBUF. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG AND INVERSION HEIGHTS 11-14 KFT. GIVEN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING WITHIN THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUNDERSNOW WILL BE LIKELY...PRIMARY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO/ERIE. ...COASTAL MAINE... OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL/DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS AFTN. STRONG VORT MAX PIVOTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS BEEN MAXIMIZING UVV ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL BUOYANCY ABOVE H85 OF AROUND 200 J/KG. GIVEN SUCH STRONG UVV...PARCELS ARE BEING LOFTED ABOVE THE -20C RANGE...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING. ..RACY.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 02:40:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 21:40:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511250239.jAP2dFGK031726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250237 SWODY1 SPC AC 250236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0836 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ART 40 NE ART 45 WSW SLK 45 SW SLK 35 NNE UCA 20 NNE UCA 15 NNE SYR 30 ENE ROC 25 NW BUF 15 E BUF 35 SE BUF 35 N BFD 15 SSW JHW 25 SSE ERI 25 N YNG CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA... LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION HAS TRANSITIONED TO A SINGLE DOMINANT BAND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WITH A LOW LEVEL FETCH NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. FARTHER SWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE...MULTIPLE BANDS STILL PERSIST. INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH...AND COLD AIR WITH -30C AT 3 KM WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE WARM LAKES TONIGHT...MAINTAINING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. ..DIAL.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 05:55:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 00:55:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511250554.jAP5sUw2018535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250548 SWODY1 SPC AC 250547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW DRT 20 SW JCT 40 WSW TPL 10 SSW CLL 65 S GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW ELP 20 S CNM 25 N FST 20 ENE BGS 45 SSW LTS 25 ESE CHK MLC 35 SSE TXK 20 NE LCH 80 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW BLI 35 N PDX 30 SE EUG 50 ESE CEC 80 W UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S TX AND S CNTRL TX... ...S AND S CNTRL TX... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SWRN AND S TX THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER. DEWPOINTS OVER THE WRN GULF ARE NOW IN THE LOW 60S...BUT CONTINUED MODIFICATION SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF NWWD THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY INCREASE INLAND OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 12:43:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 07:43:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511251242.jAPCgLo3016709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251239 SWODY1 SPC AC 251238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 35 WNW HDO 20 WSW AUS 10 SSW CLL 15 E GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM 40 WNW RDM 35 ENE SAC 50 SSW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 20 S CNM 30 NNE INK 20 ENE BGS 45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 45 SE MLC 35 SSE TXK 20 NE LCH 45 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN TX... ...SOUTH TX AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST... COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE BY LATER TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT TX COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH BUOY DATA INDICATING SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S EARLY THIS MORNING. AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE/RESPOND TO APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...THIS RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND DEVELOP WNWWD TOWARDS CENTRAL TX BY LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE UPPER TX COAST WWD TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. 09Z RUC AND NAMKF BOTH DEVELOP MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...AS AFTERNOON HEATING OVERCOMES WEAK CAPPING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME MARGINAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG/DEEP ASCENT SPREADS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...REGION WILL BECOME OVERSPREAD BY 110-12O KT H25 WINDS DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION MAY AWAIT LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENTLY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AFTER DARK WHICH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE TX COAST OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEARER THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...PRECEDING ENEWD MOVING MCS...WHERE SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 16:52:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 11:52:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511251651.jAPGp03D013800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251628 SWODY1 SPC AC 251627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 45 SW JCT 55 ENE JCT 10 SSW CLL 30 SE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM 50 WNW RDM 45 NE SAC 50 SE UKI 80 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 25 NNE INK 45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW DEQ 35 ENE TXK 20 NE LCH 55 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS S TX.... ...S TX THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT... AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN...WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID 60 DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST SWD INTO THE EXTREME W CENTRAL GULF. THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF MID MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND APPROACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BRO/CRP SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WHEN MODIFIED FOR SURFACE HEATING AND GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...WHILE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UPSTREAM OVER NRN MEXICO. THE DESTABILIZATION OVER S TX...COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM W TO E THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT INVOF THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD OVERNIGHT AS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE RESIDUAL COASTAL FRONT/TROUGH OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 20:04:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 15:04:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511252003.jAPK34Su021679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252000 SWODY1 SPC AC 251958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 45 SW JCT 55 ENE JCT 10 SSW CLL 30 SE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM 50 WNW RDM 45 NE SAC 50 SE UKI 80 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 25 NNE INK 45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW DEQ 35 ENE TXK 20 NE LCH 55 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND S TX... ...CNTRL/S TX... UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NWRN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE MAKING A TURN TO THE EAST AS ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS...AND SHOULD TRANSLATE TOWARDS CNTRL/S TX TONIGHT. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND PARTS OF TX AS UPPER FLOW REGIME BECOMES DIFFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE IMPULSE. A FEW SHALLOW SURFACE BASED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN PRESENT ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST VCNTY A WARM FRONT. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/S TX WAS CAPPED AT MID-AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWWD ACROSS CNTRL/S TX THROUGH TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT HEATING...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NERN MEXICO LATE THIS AFTN...THEN IN THE RIO GRANDE VLY BY EARLY/MID-EVENING. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SWRN TX LATER IN THE EVENING...ULTIMATELY EVOLVING INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER CNTRL/S TX. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH STORM MODE SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS...BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS S TX/COASTAL PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER...MORE DISCRETE STORMS. ..RACY.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 00:51:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 19:51:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511260049.jAQ0nnAe001785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260047 SWODY1 SPC AC 260046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 30 WSW JCT 55 NW AUS CLL 35 SSE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 45 S MAF 55 NW ABI 30 WSW ADM 10 E PRX 10 NNE SHV 30 SSW POE 60 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 50 SSE SEA 45 SE EUG 30 SW LKV 10 NNE OWY 50 SSE EKO 25 ESE TPH 60 S TVL 35 SSW UKI 80 SW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S THROUGH S CNTRL TX... ...S THROUGH S CNTRL TX... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE WRN GULF...AND THIS PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWWD THROUGH S TX OVERNIGHT. THE ADVECTION OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING NEWD OUT OF MEXICO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH S TX OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS S TX LATER TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING NEWD OUT OF MEXICO SHOULD CONDITION THE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO ANTICIPATED MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH TIME AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH S TX TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 05:59:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 00:59:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511260557.jAQ5vugU007526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260555 SWODY1 SPC AC 260554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 50 E BAZ 35 NNW CLL 30 SW SHV 30 NW HEZ 40 ESE MCB 50 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW OGD 20 WNW BPI 45 SE LND 35 E FCL 40 SW ITR 30 NNW CAO 45 N LVS 45 NW 4SL 20 ESE U17 20 NNW U24 35 NW OGD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW LRD 45 ENE JCT 25 WNW CQB 40 NNE MHK 40 NW DSM 25 SW RFD 30 NNE LAF 45 NNE SDF 45 SE BNA 25 SSE BHM 75 WSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SERN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY ACROSS SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR INTO SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S LIKELY. PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE RETURN. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF S TX BY 12Z SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP AS THE MCS CONTINUES EWD. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MORE OR LESS LINEAR MCS. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT ALSO APPEARS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. ..DIAL.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 13:02:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 08:02:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511261301.jAQD1N8c006191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261257 SWODY1 SPC AC 261255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW PSX 40 ESE BAZ 35 WSW CLL 45 NNW JAN 30 SSE MEI 50 ENE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM 35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 30 S BWD 45 NNW FTW 30 SW TUL 30 SW OJC TOP 15 WSW BIE 45 WSW LNK 20 NNE TQE 30 ESE FRM 20 W RST 35 E VOK 20 SE OSH 15 E BEH 45 NE LAF 30 ENE EVV 30 NNW HSV 20 SSE 0A8 15 SSE CEW 40 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN/CENTRAL TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SERN TX INTO SRN LA... MESSY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL/SERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING 30-40 KT SLY H85 FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF LA BY LATER TODAY WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ SHIFTING INTO MS AFTER DARK. THUS... LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVALENT INTO SRN LA EWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS HAVE REMAINED CAPPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND RESULTANT INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS REMAINED WEAK/ELEVATED. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND VWPS FROM THE REGION INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT. THEREFORE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH TAIL END OF MCS NOW MOVING INTO SERN TX AS IT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...SYSTEM MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH RESULTING SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF MS WHERE MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COLD MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM /H5 TEMPS AOB -14C/ SUGGESTS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE FROM CENTRAL TX AND SPREAD INTO ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY UNDER POCKET OF -16C TO -18C MID LEVEL TEMPS SAMPLED AT DRT THIS MORNING. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 16:50:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 11:50:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511261648.jAQGmY3Y008696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261631 SWODY1 SPC AC 261630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LBX 25 W BPT 40 SSW HEZ 35 ESE MCB 60 SSE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM 35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW LRD 30 S BWD 50 NNE MWL 20 W TUL 30 E EMP 20 ENE CNK 35 ESE HSI 30 SSW OLU 20 N SLB 30 WNW RST 30 SSE CWA 15 E MTW 10 N AZO 15 SSW FWA 30 ENE EVV 50 SW BNA 0A8 40 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A BROAD/DEEP SURFACE LOW EXPECTED IN KS BY LATE TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS TX/LA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODULATED/DELAYED SOMEWHAT BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST. ...UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA THROUGH LATE EVENING... A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AND SE TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING SRN STREAM WAVE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST...THOUGH TRENDS IN SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 70 F WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. WSR-88D/S FROM GLS AND LCH BOTH REVEAL A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ABOUT 40 N MI S OF GLS-SABINE PASS...NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING /REFER TO MCD 2467 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS/. W OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS S TX THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 19:56:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 14:56:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511261955.jAQJtXl3003984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261953 SWODY1 SPC AC 261951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S LCH 25 NNW LCH 20 SW HEZ 35 ESE MCB 60 SSE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE U28 35 ENE RKS 20 SW LAR 25 E 4FC 45 E DRO 20 SSW CEZ 15 E 4BL 15 ENE U28. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM 35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S PSX 25 SW LBX 30 ENE HOU 20 SE LFK 10 S GGG 25 E DUA 10 SE ADM 20 W TUL 30 E EMP 20 ENE CNK 35 ESE HSI 30 SSW OLU 20 N SLB 30 WNW RST 30 SSE CWA 15 E MTW 10 N AZO 15 SSW FWA 30 ENE EVV 50 SW BNA 0A8 40 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA AND EXTREME SWRN MS... ...LWR MS VLY... MCS HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTN...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WCNTRL LA. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED SWD THROUGH SWRN LA AND INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AT MID-AFTN. ADDITIONAL...MORE DISCRETE CELLS...WERE FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE SEGMENT...MAINLY OFFSHORE...BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE EWD-MOVING LINE. THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD TONIGHT TOWARD THE TN VLY...WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ SHIFTING NWD WITH TIME. TSTM WILL TEND TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS LA AND INTO MS OVERNIGHT IN THE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THE WARM FRONT...NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE LA COAST...SHOULD MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING...AT LEAST TO THE I-10/I-12 CORRIDOR...AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE LWR MS VLY. CONSEQUENTLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHARACTER WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS/BOWS GIVEN THE 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SRN LA AHEAD OF THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BUT THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUBSIDE AS STRONGEST ASCENT PASSES FARTHER N WITH TIME. DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA. TSTMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE ELEVATED AT FARTHER N LATITUDES IN LA/MS...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS /ISOLD SEVERE/ WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN. ..RACY.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 00:51:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 19:51:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511270050.jAR0oN9J002756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270048 SWODY1 SPC AC 270047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ONM 45 S GNT 15 ENE GUP 10 SSE FMN 25 ENE DRO 20 WSW ALS 40 W RTN 25 NE LVS 50 S LVS 30 NW 4CR 25 WNW ONM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LBX 30 WSW BPT 50 NNW BPT 35 E LFK 30 SE GGG 45 SE PRX 15 S MLC 35 WSW MKO 30 ENE BVO 45 NE CNU 40 N STJ 20 SW FOD 25 WSW RST 35 NNE LSE 20 S MTW 10 NW JXN FDY 15 ENE DAY 40 NNE SDF 25 SE CKV 30 S MSL 25 SW SEM 45 WSW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N UIL 30 NE AST 25 NNW SLE EUG 30 E OTH 30 N 4BK 30 W CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. AN MCS IS LOCATED IN LA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF LA. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F EXIST OVER SRN LA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE MCS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MS INTO SRN AL. 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SERN LA WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 50 KT AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 3 KM. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE MARGINALLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL. THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS MOVES EWD OFF THE SERN LA COAST BY 03Z TO 04Z. ..BROYLES.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 06:03:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 01:03:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511270602.jAR62JkZ011772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270559 SWODY1 SPC AC 270558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PBF 25 W HOT 35 WNW HOT 20 NE FSM 10 ESE JLN 35 SW OJC 15 W MKC 35 NE MKC 45 NW COU 20 NNE VIH 45 WNW POF 25 W JBR 50 ENE LIT 35 WNW PBF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLS 50 NNW BPT 15 WSW SHV 20 NNW DEQ 35 W GMJ 45 WSW CNU 15 SW ICT 30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 40 NNW DNV 20 SE PAH 20 SE UOX 60 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 20 NNW HOU 15 NW GGG 30 NNE PRX 25 N MLC 25 NNE CQB END 40 WSW END 20 N CSM 40 WNW CSM 25 WSW GAG 15 NW DDC 45 WSW EAR 40 S MHE 40 NW RWF 25 S DLH 20 N CMX TVC 30 SW LAN 30 NE IND 50 WSW BNA MGR AYS 25 NW CHS 45 NE CAE 20 NNW RDU 40 E EWN 65 S HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR...MO AND FAR ERN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU/UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ORGANIZE AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS TODAY. AS THE UPPER-LOW CLOSES-OFF AND THE SYSTEM DEEPENS...STRONG AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE IN CNTRL KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM COMES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY INITIATE AND EXPAND SSEWD ACROSS ERN KS...WRN MO AND WRN AR. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH BRINGING AN IMPRESSIVE 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET THROUGH WEST TX INTO ERN OK DURING THE DAY. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD STRONG DIFFLUENCE ACROSS ERN KS...WRN MO AND WRN AR RESULTING IN RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST SFC DEWPOINTS OVER SW MO AND AR WHERE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM ACROSS SW MO AND WRN AR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAST STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 70 KT 850 MB JET SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES EWD ACROSS MO AND AR DURING THE EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST FARTHER NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NE KS AND NRN MO WHERE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ENELY NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY AREA. IF MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE TORNADO THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS REGION. DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL-LINE WITH MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS...MOVES ENEWD INTO IA...IL...WRN TN...NW MS AND NE LA. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 13:03:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 08:03:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511271302.jARD2TuD027885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271300 SWODY1 SPC AC 271258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ELD 25 ESE TXK 30 ENE DEQ 20 NE FSM 15 SSW JLN 15 SE EMP 20 WNW TOP 10 WNW FLV 40 WNW COU 20 NNE VIH 40 NNW POF JBR 55 ENE PBF 20 E ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT UTS 45 WNW LFK 20 NNE PRX 25 S TUL 35 NE PNC 30 SSW ICT 30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 30 WNW LAF 25 NNE HOP 20 SSW CBM 35 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRP 40 SE CLL 25 WNW TYR 25 WNW PRX 30 WNW MLC 25 NNE CQB 15 SSE END 40 WSW END 20 N CSM 40 WNW CSM 40 NE BGD 10 NNE GCK 45 WSW EAR 40 S MHE 40 NW RWF 25 S DLH 20 N CMX 25 E TVC 20 N FDY 30 NE IND 15 N 0A8 15 ESE ABY 40 SW CTY ...CONT... 55 ENE SSI OGB 35 WNW FLO 20 NE SOP 25 NW EWN 50 SSW HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS... OVERNIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN OVERALL STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS KS TODAY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES ESEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN OK/NERN TX INTO CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. A VERY STRONG SLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVER MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WITH 50+ KT H85 JET AXIS FROM WRN LA INTO CENTRAL MO BY LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY EXTREME WINDS ALOFT /120+ KT AT H25 AND 75+ KT AT H5/. APPEARS INSTABILITY AND STRONG CAP EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HINDER SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER... ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAKENING CAP ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...DESPITE SBCAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND RACE NEWD ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO/FAR SERN NEB. MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR 21Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS/WRN MO INTO ERN OK/WRN AR AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH VALUES OF BOUNDARY LAYER RH. LARGE HODOGRAPHS /0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 / SUGGEST SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT STORM-SCALE EVOLUTION/MODE AS STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF FAST MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INTO MO WHERE COMPONENT OF STEERING FLOW NORMAL TO THE FRONT WILL BE SMALLER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO FAST MOVING LEWPS/BOW ECHOES... FURTHER ENHANCING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT. BY THE EARLY/MID EVENING...SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE WELL DEVELOPED FROM SRN IA INTO SERN TX/LA WITHIN DEEP CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG WRN EDGE OF LLJ. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THREATS OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT...AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. ..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 16:55:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 11:55:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511271653.jARGrXD3026558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271636 SWODY1 SPC AC 271634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ELD 35 SE TXK 10 N DEQ 10 NNW FSM 15 SSW JLN 20 WNW EMP 10 E MHK 10 NNW FLV 40 WNW COU 20 NNE VIH 40 NNW POF 10 WSW JBR 55 ENE PBF 30 E ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT 25 NW UTS 25 WNW PRX 30 ESE CQB 30 NNE CQB PNC 20 E P28 30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 25 NNE DNV 20 NNE HOP 20 SSW CBM 65 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE SSI OGB 35 NW FLO 10 WNW FAY 15 W OAJ 75 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRP 30 SE CLL 15 NNE CRS GYI 40 SE OKC 25 N OKC 40 SW END 25 N CSM 40 WNW CSM 50 W GAG 25 N GCK 20 E LBF 15 WNW MHE 15 SSW VVV 25 S DLH 20 N CMX 25 E TVC JXN 25 S MIE 15 WSW BWG 15 E TCL 40 WNW ABY 30 SW VLD 40 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN AND WRN MO...AND ERN KS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM E TX/LA NWD TO IA/IL.... ...SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 115 KT 500 MB JET OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SW KS EVOLVES INTO A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW INVOF NW MO BY LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG A TRAILING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. ...E TX/LA NWD ACROSS ERN OK/KS...AR...AND MO... A WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. THE LINGERING IMPACTS OF A LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ALONG THE NW GULF COAST YESTERDAY...AND VEERED L0W-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...HAVE DELAYED NWD MOISTURE RETURN TO TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 65-68 F DEWPOINTS IS CONFINED TO SE TX/SW LA AS OF MID MORNING...THOUGH THIS MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING 50-60 KT LLJ. STILL...LOW CLOUDS ON THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY FROM THE ARKLATEX NWD. THE NET RESULT WILL BE SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE IN KS/MO BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...TO 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF THE ARKLATEX WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65-80 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2. A COMPARISON OF MID-UPPER FLOW/SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATIONS WITH A N-S DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK...ARCING BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SE KS...SUGGESTS THAT BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A SOMEWHAT BROKEN SQUALL LINE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT ON THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NWD FROM E TX. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE STORM ELEMENTS...A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 20:05:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 15:05:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511272004.jARK47VM026716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272001 SWODY1 SPC AC 271959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ELD 35 SE TXK 10 N DEQ 10 NNW FSM 15 SSW JLN 20 WNW EMP 10 E MHK 10 NNW FLV 40 WNW COU 20 NNE VIH 40 NNW POF 10 WSW JBR 55 ENE PBF 30 E ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT 25 NW UTS 40 N PRX 25 WSW MKO 10 S TUL PNC 20 E P28 30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 25 NNE DNV 20 NNE HOP 20 SSW CBM 65 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE SSI OGB 35 NW FLO 10 WNW FAY 15 W OAJ 75 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRP 30 SE CLL 15 NNE CRS 35 SSW MLC 25 SSE CQB 35 ESE END 25 W END 35 SW AVK 20 NNE GAG 40 SSW DDC 25 N GCK 20 E LBF 15 WNW MHE 15 SSW VVV 25 S DLH 20 N CMX 25 E TVC JXN 25 S MIE 15 WSW BWG 15 E TCL 40 WNW ABY 30 SW VLD 40 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SRN AND WRN MO...AND ERN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX/LA NWD TO IA/IL... ...E TX/LA NWD ACROSS ERN OK/KS...AR...AND MO... RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS COMMENCED EARLY THIS AFTN WITH A 984MB CENTER OVER CNTRL KS. THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD AND AT MID-AFTN EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN OK TO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX. A COLD FRONT WAS ACCELERATING ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE TX S PLAINS. A PERSISTENT WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS MOVED INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD SERN NEB/NWRN MO/NERN KS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO TURN NEWD...THEN ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE CORN BELT BY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE...AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. TWO PRIMARY REGIONS OF SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS IMMINENT...ONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE OTHER FARTHER S ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE VERY PERSISTENT WRF-4KM GUIDANCE FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. 1. CNTRL PLAINS: TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED VCNTY/NE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE AND ALONG THE NOSE OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK AT MID-AFTN. NEODESHA...LAMONT AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS INDICATE THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF 40-45 KT VERTICAL SHEAR AND ISOLD CELLS HAVE SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE DRYLINE...ARCING NWWD INTO THE SURFACE LOW...2-6KM MEAN WIND VECTORS REMAIN SOMEWHAT NORMAL TO THE BOUNDARY. THUS...AS THE TSTMS INTENSIFY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO...POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WILL EXIST. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES HAVE BACKED OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER CNTRL KS...AND ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT AND MAY JOIN WITH NRN-EXTENT OF TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY. DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL MAY OCCUR AS FAR E AS IL AND SRN IA LATER TONIGHT. 2. SRN MO...AR...ERN TX...LA: LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DRYING OCCURRING RAPIDLY JUST BEHIND THE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-AFTN. PRESENCE OF INCREASED PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THAT THE UPSTREAM W TX MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE AFFECTING THE REGION. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOWER 60S DEW POINTS NOSE NWD INTO THE AR/SRN MO...WEAKENING CINH OBSERVED ON THE 18Z LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING. EXPECT TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SWRN AR INTO EXTREME NERN TX AND ALONG THE MAIN DRYLINE ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTN. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY AND GIVEN CROSS-BOUNDARY MEAN FLOW VECTORS...DISCRETE CELLS WILL EXIST. SOME OF THESE CELLS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS /A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE/. OTHERWISE...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS...WITH ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY JOIN TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MO LATER TONIGHT...REACHING PARTS OF WRN TN...WRN MS AND CNTRL LA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL CONTINUING. ..RACY.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 01:04:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 20:04:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511280103.jAS132rs000989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280100 SWODY1 SPC AC 280059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ELD 30 S HOT HOT 35 W BVX 30 WNW UNO 10 SE TBN 40 SSE VIH 40 SW FAM 15 ENE ARG 50 WSW MEM 25 W LLQ 30 N ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT 25 NW UTS 25 WSW TYR 15 E RKR 20 SSE FYV 20 WSW UMN 30 SSW TOP 25 ESE BIE 15 WNW OMA 25 SE SLB 30 SE MCW 40 NE ALO 20 NE DBQ 35 NW MMO CMI 25 W EVV 45 SE MKL 35 WNW PIB 65 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CHS 20 S CHS 40 ENE OGB 25 N FLO 15 ENE SOP GSB EWN 60 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX VCT 15 SSW AUS 20 WSW TPL 30 NNW CRS 30 SE MLC 30 ESE MKO 30 SSW GMJ 35 S EMP 25 N SLN 25 SSE HSI 25 SE ONL 15 WNW BKX 25 SE BRD 30 NE IWD 45 NNE ESC 15 ENE TVC 30 NW LAN 10 NNE FWA 30 ENE BWG 25 SE HSV 35 SW ANB 30 NE DHN 20 N TLH 45 WSW CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY... ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK UNDERWAY ACROSS MO AND AR WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 3 TO 4 MORE HOURS AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THE EXIT REGION OF A 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WITH THE JET SPLITTING DUE TO VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS VERY STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN VERY INTENSE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS...BOW ECHOES AND SEVERE MULTICELLS LIKELY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE MO-AR STATE-LINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 750 TO 1000 J/KG. CONSIDERING THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS ERN AR AND SERN MO THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OVER 70 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MO...A SECONDARY LINE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THIS REGION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LOW. IN ADDITION...BACKED SFC WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 300 TO 500 M2/S2 AS SUGGESTED BY 88D VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO CONTINUE AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL IA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE TWO LINES MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE MS RIVER BASIN BY MIDNIGHT...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER TIME. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS IL...WRN TN AND WRN MS. ..BROYLES.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 06:01:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 01:01:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511280600.jAS60L40002296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280557 SWODY1 SPC AC 280555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW TOI 20 W SEM 15 SSW TCL 35 S MSL 35 NNE HSV 10 W CHA 30 ESE CHA 25 NNE ATL 35 ENE CSG 30 SSE CSG 25 N DHN 15 SSE TOI 35 WSW TOI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW HUM 35 NE MCB 40 ESE GWO 40 N TUP 35 W HOP 35 SW HUF 20 SSE VPZ 20 SSW AZO 20 WSW ARB 45 SSE DTW 10 E ZZV 50 SSW BLF 45 WNW CAE 30 NNW AYS 40 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 ENE GLH 35 SW PAH 15 SE PIA 35 SE DBQ 35 ESE RHI ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ROC 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC 20 ENE GSB 45 SSW HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS... A POWERFUL UPPER-LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SYSTEM...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM FAR ERN IL EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN KY INTO WCNTRL TN AND WCNTRL MS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. INITIALLY THE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REGENERATION OR REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM FORECAST INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL AL BY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 60 KT WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE LINE OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE TN EXTENDING SWD ACROSS AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER CNTRL AND ERN AL INTO WRN GA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE COMBINATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA SUGGESTING TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. A FEW STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER MI SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..BROYLES/SCHNEIDER.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 12:41:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 07:41:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511281239.jASCdk5A012193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281237 SWODY1 SPC AC 281235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AUO 10 NNW GZH 60 SE MEI 25 NE MEI 10 S CBM 15 WSW MSL 30 NNW HSV 20 SSW CHA 15 W ATL 25 SSW AUO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 15 WSW TUP 40 WNW HOP 15 SSE DNV 20 S SBN 25 SSE JXN 50 WNW CLE 10 NNE ZZV 25 WNW CRW 20 NNW AVL 50 NE MGR 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE VRB 35 WSW APF ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 15 NNE GWO 35 SW PAH 20 SSW PIA 15 NE ALO 40 W AUW 50 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 60 WNW MSS 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC GSB 25 SE ILM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AL AND A SMALL PART OF WRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO CENTRAL MS EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO/AR/LA. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS EXTREME MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST INTO THE TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 50S F. THEREFORE...GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND STRENGTH OF FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY... CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL MS WITH ONGOING NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION...WHILE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER S-CENTRAL LA. ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL. EXPECT STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/DIMINISHED THROUGH THE MID MORNING GIVEN MODEST CAP PRESENT ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE...SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AND DEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING. EXTREME SHEAR IN PLACE SUPPORTS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ONCE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO ROOT INTO 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE O-1 KM SRH WILL EXCEED 350 M2/S2 OVER A LARGE AREA. SMALL LEWPS AND BOW ECHOES MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THOUGH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH STRONGER CELLS OVERNIGHT. ...IND/OH INTO KY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... WITH INCREASED HEATING THIS MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE/DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO IND/WRN KY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXTREME WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED AS STORMS ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE. DESPITE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THIS REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 17:07:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 12:07:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511281706.jASH6HqD010305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281620 SWODY1 SPC AC 281618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AUO 10 NNW GZH 50 SSE MEI 25 NE MEI 10 S CBM 15 WSW MSL 45 N HSV 10 NNE CHA 15 W ATL 25 SSW AUO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE HUM 20 S TUP 20 NW HOP 35 WNW IND 30 SSE SBN 35 SW JXN 50 WNW CLE 10 NNE ZZV 25 WNW CRW 20 NNW AVL 50 NE MGR 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE ROC 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC GSB 35 SE ILM ...CONT... 60 SSW HUM 40 NE JAN 15 NNW PAH 15 S DEC 30 E MLI 25 NNW ALO 40 W EAU 75 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE VRB 35 WSW APF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF AL PARTS OF MID TN AND NWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NWD TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS IA TODAY REACHING INTO NRN WI BY TUE AM. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY WILL SHIFT N AND E THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR. PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE CURRENTLY FROM WRN IND SSWWD INTO ERN MS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE IA SURFACE LOW SWD VICINITY STL AND THEN TO SRN LA. ...AL INTO MID TN AND WRN GA... WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/K SRN AL... AS SURFACE HEATING PUSHES THE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S AT 15Z WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE MID/UPPER 60S. GIVEN THE SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT AND HELICITIES FROM 400-500 M2/S2 AS NOTED ON THE BMX VAD WINDS AND LITTLE REMAINING CIN...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INSTABILITY LINE. POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS WARM SECTOR IN AL INTO WRN GA AND MIDDLE TN. ADDITIONALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD FAVOR BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THESE STORMS AND GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. ...OH VALLEY... ALTHOUGH LESS INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS OH VALLEY...THE VERY STRONG SHEAR COUPLED WITH MUCAPES UPWARD TO 500 J/KG MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL REQUIRE THE STRONG QG FORCING UNDER THE INTENSE UPPER JET TO PROMOTE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY MODE WILL BE LINEAR WITH BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH BOW VORTICES. BY EVENING AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY SWD INTO ERN AL/GA WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..HALES/GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 20:01:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 15:01:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511282000.jASK0LFn003060@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281957 SWODY1 SPC AC 281955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AUO 20 NNW TOI 15 SSW SEM 25 SSW 0A8 TCL 10 WSW HSV 45 N HSV 10 NNE CHA 15 W ATL 25 SSW AUO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE MOB 45 NNE MOB 15 SW TCL 15 NNE BNA 45 ESE BMG 55 S SBN 30 ESE SBN 35 SW JXN 50 WNW CLE 10 NNE ZZV 25 WNW CRW 20 NNW AVL 50 NE MGR 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW BVE 25 E MEI 35 NE OWB 20 WSW LAF 30 E MLI 25 NNW ALO 40 W EAU 75 NNE CMX ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC GSB 35 SE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE VRB 35 WSW APF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AL INTO SRN TN/NWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE FL PANHANDLE...NWD INTO IND/OH... ...CENTRAL GULF STATES/OH VALLEY... PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NERN AL/NRN GA HAVE SLOWED NWD RETURN OF MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE NRN GULF STATES. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IS ADVECTING WEST-NORTH BEHIND THIS BUBBLE OF STABLE AIR...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NCNTRL AL. SFC WIND SHIFT APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR AIDING MORE LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SWD INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG SRN END OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED SUNSHINE/HEATING SHOULD AID FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS DISTINCT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY...MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEEM TO BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION. EVEN SO...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING DATA INTO KY/SERN IND. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IF BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES CAN MATERIALIZE. ..DARROW.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 00:47:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 19:47:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511290045.jAT0jdPG032551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290043 SWODY1 SPC AC 290042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 30 WSW SEM 20 SSE BHM 25 SW CHA 35 ESE CHA 35 NW AHN 40 SSE AHN 30 NW AYS 40 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE BVE 55 ESE MEI BHM 50 ESE BWG 10 NNW LEX 35 WSW UNI 30 NNE CRW 30 SW SHD 15 SSW AVC 40 SSE ILM ...CONT... 30 N PBI APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE APN 15 W OSC 20 NNE LAN 30 SSE AZO 20 E BEH 20 NE MKG 40 NNW TVC 95 NNE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS AL/GA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE COLD FRONT IN EAST CENTRAL AL SEWD INTO THE NRN FL PANHANDLE...WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS MOSTLY LINEAR... DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60-70 KT. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN AL AND NRN GA...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. ...OH VALLEY... WIDESPREAD BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT EWD THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE...RESULTING IN INSUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THE THUNDER AND SEVERE THREAT IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. ..IMY.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 05:46:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 00:46:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511290544.jAT5ixEV019923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290529 SWODY1 SPC AC 290527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SGJ VDI 30 WSW AGS 35 ENE HKY ROA 20 NNW SHD 30 SSW MRB 35 SSE MRB 15 SW DCA RIC 30 ENE RZZ 20 NE EWN 70 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ART SYR POU 15 SSW GON 50 SSW BID ...CONT... 70 SSW PFN MAI 65 NW AHN ZZV 30 NE CLE 60 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM OLM PDX 40 E OTH 55 WNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE EJECTED NEWD INTO ONTARIO...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWD INTO AL/GA TO SWEEP EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...VA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SRN END OF THE ONTARIO LOW WILL SWEEP NEWD ACROSS WRN VA/NC LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE LINE. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...CLOUDY SKIES AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG AND MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWS WITHIN THE LINE WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST KM MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THE WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE AND MORE ISOLATED THAN ON MONDAY. ..IMY.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 13:01:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 08:01:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511291259.jATCxpjs004161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291257 SWODY1 SPC AC 291256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SSI 30 NNW AYS 20 NE AND 40 S PSK 15 WNW HGR 40 SE CXY 10 SW NHK 45 SE ECG 25 NE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ART 25 SSE SYR 20 ESE POU 15 SSW GON 50 SSW BID ...CONT... 40 SSE AAF 20 SW MGR 25 WSW AND 50 W BKW 35 SSE CAK 55 NNW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CLM 10 SSE OLM 20 NNW PDX EUG 25 NNE OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM DELMARVA INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA... ...CENTRAL NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA... DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE FL BIG BEND REGION. THIS RAISES SOME QUESTION REGARDING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD AND MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH MID 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM FL/SERN GA NWD INTO CENTRAL NC...MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL NY. IN ADDITION...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS ALL THE AFFECTED REGION. THE AXIS OF MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD LIFT GRADUALLY NWD AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT REGION/ERN NC THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE MITIGATED BY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...GRADUAL SURFACE WARMING INTO THE 70S WILL GENERATE MARGINAL TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. LESSER HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING AT CHS INDICATES SBCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 75F...WITH 70F TEMPERATURE AT GSO YIELDING SIMILAR SBCAPE. IN ADDITION...EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEARER THE APPALACHIANS...WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AT GSO THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEARING 70F FROM CENTRAL SC INTO SWRN VA...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID MORNING. THREAT SHOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS PA AND NY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL LESSEN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE SPREADS EAST OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND MOVES ACROSS SERN GA/SC LATER THIS MORNING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ONCE HEATING ALLOWS STORMS TO ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY INTO THE CAROLINAS/CENTRAL VA. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 17:02:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 12:02:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511291700.jATH0nRo002989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291631 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE SAV 45 SE AGS 35 WSW CAE 20 NE HKY 15 ENE SSU 35 SSW AOO 35 SSW CXY 25 E RIC 10 NW ECG 35 S HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE AAF 20 SW ABY 25 WSW AND 50 W BKW 35 SSE CAK 55 NNW ERI ...CONT... 25 WNW ART 35 SW SLK 15 SSE ALB 30 NE BDR 40 SSW BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CLM 10 SSE OLM 20 NNW PDX EUG 25 NNE OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO CENTRAL VA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AS THE DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER WI MOVES NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND WEAKENS...AND A SEPARATE SPEED MAX OVER MS/AL LIFTS NEWD TO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. A SEPARATE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL DRIFT SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL TODAY. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW TOWARD THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...CAROLINAS TO INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN TWO BANDS THIS MORNING - ONE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM UPSTATE SC TO WRN VA...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE MOISTURE/LLJ AXIS FROM THE GRAND STRAND NWD INTO ERN NC. BETWEEN THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS...A NARROW WARM SECTOR EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS SC TO SW VA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MOIST PROFILES...AND RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS IT SPREADS NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL VA TODAY. HOWEVER...40-50 KT SLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY DEVELOPS IN AREAS WITH CLOUD BREAKS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 19:49:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 14:49:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511291948.jATJm4gA013812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291946 SWODY1 SPC AC 291944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CRE 15 NE FLO 35 SE CLT 40 WSW GSO 30 E SSU 35 SSW AOO 35 SSW CXY 25 E RIC 10 NW ECG 35 S HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ART 35 SW SLK 15 SSE ALB 30 NE BDR 40 SSW BID ...CONT... 55 ESE CHS 25 SSW FLO 45 SSW CLT 15 WSW BLF 20 W MGW 25 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW APF 40 ENE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BLI 35 SSE SEA 10 ENE SLE 25 NNE OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...MID ATLANTIC... LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS BACK EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT BROAD SUBSIDENCE LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DOWNSTREAM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPEDIMENT TO ROBUST ACTIVITY IS THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. EVEN SO...EMBEDDED STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NC INTO INTERIOR VA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE...OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN AN END TO ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 00:40:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 19:40:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511300039.jAU0dCB5003808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300036 SWODY1 SPC AC 300035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ILM 30 SE FAY 25 WNW GSB 30 SSW AVC 30 N AVC 35 E CHO 15 NE HGR 25 NNW CXY 15 W ABE 15 WSW TTN 25 NNE SBY 35 ENE ORF 30 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S CRE 15 W CRE 25 NNE FAY 40 SSE CHO 15 N HGR 25 ESE ELM 35 NE BGM 40 WSW ALB 25 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BLI 20 SSW SEA 10 SW SLE 35 NE OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA... ...NERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... SQUALL LINE FROM SERN PA THROUGH CNTRL VA AND E CNTRL NC CONTINUES EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...AND THIS REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT. NEVERTHELESS... STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 05:44:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 00:44:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511300543.jAU5h3nt023844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300540 SWODY1 SPC AC 300538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JFK 20 WSW BDL 25 NNE EEN 10 WNW PWM 65 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND AREA... PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. BY AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK MID LEVEL COOLING ATTENDING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...MAINLY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..DIAL.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 12:49:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 07:49:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511301247.jAUClbHD030621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301245 SWODY1 SPC AC 301243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ISP 10 SSW ORH 15 SSW PSM 50 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OKX INDICATES SMALL POSITIVE AREA / MUCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG / LIFTING A PARCEL AT H85. THEREFORE...SPORADIC/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY DEEP MOIST PLUME AS IT SPREADS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 16:18:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 11:18:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511301617.jAUGHA3w031472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301610 SWODY1 SPC AC 301608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ISP 20 NNW PVD 15 SSW PSM 50 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK WITH ONLY A SKINNY ELEVATED POSITIVE AREA NOTED ON THE NEW YORK CITY 12Z SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING...DEEPER CONVECTION OFFSHORE MOVING TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRIKES. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EWD LATER TODAY WITH THE THUNDER THREAT ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 19:29:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 14:29:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511301927.jAUJRXeR030228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301925 SWODY1 SPC AC 301924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST DEEPER CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED ROUGHLY 100MI OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...AND WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM RISK. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 20:52:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 15:52:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511302050.jAUKoTg6001429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302048 SWODY1 SPC AC 302047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST DEEPER CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED ROUGHLY 100MI OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...AND WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM RISK. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 21:43:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 16:43:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511302141.jAULfn4w013756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302133 SWODY1 SPC AC 302047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST DEEPER CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED ROUGHLY 100MI OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...AND WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM RISK. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 01:00:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 20:00:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511010101.jA1115pm017737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010058 SWODY1 SPC AC 010057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LRD 40 SSW SAT 55 N VCT 35 E UTS 20 S SHV 25 SW ELD 40 N MLU 50 E MLU 10 NE PIB 55 E BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 30 ESE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX AND SWRN LA... THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN TX EARLY THIS EVENING. LINEAR MCS HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN LA AND TX AT 01Z. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND THE SEVERE THREATS ARE RAPIDLY DECLINING ACROSS SWRN LA AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. FARTHER S...THE SWRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE WAS BACKBUILDING WWD ALONG THE COAST VCNTY KCRP. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A SMALL WARM SECTOR PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATED FROM KCRP WWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. BUT...THE 00Z KBRO RAOB SUGGESTS THAT A SUBSTANTIAL CAP EXISTS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER. GIVEN THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UVV/COOLING ALOFT ARE PASSING JUST N OF DEEP S TX...TSTMS SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME BEING MAINTAINED. AS SUCH...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL/ISOLD AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGION FROM PORT MANSFIELD NWD. ..RACY.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 05:52:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 00:52:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511010552.jA15qJbP005690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010548 SWODY1 SPC AC 010546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI 15 ENE PDX 40 NNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 10 NNW BTR 35 SSW JAN 10 N GZH 45 NNW GNV 45 ENE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... DIFFUSE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CUBA/BAHAMAS WILL REDEVELOP INTO SRN FL TUE AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN FL TUE AFTN IN THE ACCELERATING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INFLUX OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS SRN FL THROUGH THE AFTN. ONE OR TWO STRONG TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THOUGH MEAGER LAPSE RATES/CLOUDS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL THERMAL BUOYANCY. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AGAIN VERY LATE TUE/EARLY WED ACROSS THE KEYS AND SWRN FL AS THE MAIN TROUGH WITHIN THE POLAR WLYS APPROACHES THE ERN GULF BASIN. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 12:41:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 07:41:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511011241.jA1CfcDS001823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011239 SWODY1 SPC AC 011238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI 15 ENE PDX 40 NNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW HUM 35 ENE MCB 10 SW MEI 10 SSW SEM 25 SW ABY 45 SE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM WESTERN AL INTO EASTERN LA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WERE PRESENT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH ONLY MINIMAL AFTERNOON HEATING. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...WHERE TROPICAL AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS AREA...SUGGESTING ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE TIED TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND WOULD BE BRIEF. THEREFORE...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION TODAY. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 16:45:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 11:45:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511011645.jA1GjO30015177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011619 SWODY1 SPC AC 011618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI PDX 45 W ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S HUM 40 N ASD 50 SSE MEI 15 N GZH 15 ENE MGR 45 NE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MONDAYS SRN PLAINS DIGGING TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM ERN AL SWWD INTO GULF WITH BOTH FRONT AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LACK OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT ERN GULF COAST AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM. TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN FL AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SRN HALF OF PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER REDUCING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY SERN FL SEA BREEZE FRONT. ..HALES/LEVIT.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 20:55:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 15:55:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511012055.jA1Kttsu029879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011953 SWODY1 SPC AC 011952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI PDX 45 W ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW AAF 25 NE MAI 10 NNE CSG 20 W MCN 15 ENE MGR 45 NE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... BIMODAL ASCENT PLUMES ARE CONVERGING ON THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN UPSTREAM BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WITH A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY TRAILS INTO THE NERN GULF WHERE NEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SECONDARY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT PLUME OF ASCENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...SWWD INTO THE FL STRAITS. HIGHER INSTABILITY IS NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS CONVECTION MAY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS UPSTREAM TROUGH AFFECTS NRN FL LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...PACIFIC NW... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND SECONDARY ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SHALLOW...HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY MARINE LAYER INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 01:01:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 20:01:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511020102.jA2123FZ026775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020059 SWODY1 SPC AC 020058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI PDX 45 W ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S SRQ 25 NE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... PRIMARY SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED/MOVED ACROSS THE SWRN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CNTRL FL. A SWD ACCELERATION IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW...NOW MOVING ASHORE SWRN FL...MOVES NEWD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A BELT OF HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS CONTINUES TO EXIST. INSTABILITY WAS RATHER WEAK...THOUGH...OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES /MLCAPES AOB 1000 J PER KG/. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP...THOUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF COAST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE GLANCES THE PLUME OF HIGH THETA-E. ...PAC NW... LEAD PORTION OF AN UPPER IMPULSE HAS MOVED INTO ERN WA WITH A TRAILING VORT MAX MOVING ASHORE WRN WA AT 01Z. EVENING KUIL SOUNDING SUGGESTED THAT CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE VERY NEAR MINUS 20 DEGREES C. PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY DISTURBANCE/UVV MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE CLOUD TOPS INTO THE FAVORABLE RANGE FOR ISOLD LIGHTNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 05:55:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 00:55:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511020555.jA25tNkN021046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020550 SWODY1 SPC AC 020549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BNO 25 W MYL 10 SSE LVM 50 SSW COD 50 NE EVW 20 S SLC 20 WSW U31 RNO 30 S AAT 45 SSW BNO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON WED. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVING OFF THE WA/ORE COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN GRT BASIN BY WED AFTN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AGITATE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS AND OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY MOISTEN PROFILES ENOUGH FOR ISOLD AFTN-EVE TSTMS. ...SRN FL... THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SRN FL AT 06Z WILL BE LOCATED OFFSHORE BY 12Z WED. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AS NNELY FLOW INCREASES IN WAKE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTING INTO THE SWRN ATLANTIC BASIN. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DOWNWARD MOTION WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 12:41:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 07:41:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511021241.jA2CfS2a027100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021239 SWODY1 SPC AC 021237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BNO 25 W MYL 10 SSE LVM 50 SSW COD 50 NE EVW 20 S SLC 20 WSW U31 RNO 30 S AAT 45 SSW BNO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING RATHER STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM NORTHERN NV INTO WESTERN MT BY THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT UPPER COOLING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD FROM ID/NORTHERN UT INTO PARTS OF MT/WY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. ...SOUTH FL... PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...ALLOWING DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LAND/SEA INTERACTIONS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FL LATER TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 16:21:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 11:21:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511021621.jA2GLO3S004145@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021605 SWODY1 SPC AC 021603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CLM OLM 20 WSW PDX 10 NNW EUG 45 NW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... BROAD ZONE OF ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BE RATHER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ALONG THE PAC NW COAST...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH EVEN MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN WAKE OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST AS 0 TO -2C SFC-H7 LI/S DEVELOP. ..EVANS.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 19:49:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 14:49:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511021949.jA2JnIFb003860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021947 SWODY1 SPC AC 021945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW BLI OLM 35 SE SLE 30 S MFR 75 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE EWD ONTO THE NRN CA COAST WITH ATTENDANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN ORE. TO THE W...A TENDENCY FOR LESS CLOUDINESS AND RESULTANT STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ WITHIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST E OF SURFACE FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS ENHANCED. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS FAR E AS ID/NV WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF GENERAL THUNDER FARTHER INLAND. ..MEAD.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 00:44:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 19:44:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511030044.jA30i3jR010579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030041 SWODY1 SPC AC 030039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SCK 25 SW SAC 15 ESE RBL 45 SE MHS 75 ENE RBL 45 NW TVL 50 SSW TVL 15 NNE MER 35 S SCK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS MOST OF CONUS...N OF RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER NWRN GULF. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF PACIFIC COAST FROM NRN CA TO WA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 03Z. TROUGH SHOULD REACH NRN ROCKIES AND SRN GREAT BASIN REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD. ...NRN CA... ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF TROUGH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS... MAINLY ACROSS SAC VALLEY AND NRN FOOTHILLS OF SIERRA NV OF CA. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK SBCIN...MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL THETAE...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT ASSOCIATED MLCAPES -- NOW INDICATED TO BE AS MUCH AS 100-200 J/KG OVER PORTIONS SAC VALLEY -- TO DIMINISH WITH TIME THERE AS TROUGH PASSES AND BOTH SFC AND MIDLEVELS STABILIZE. ...REMAINDER WRN CONUS... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER BETWEEN PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH 12Z...AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND POCKETS OF VERY WEAK AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY DEVELOP. LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITS OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER AND PRECLUDES GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 05:50:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 00:50:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511030550.jA35o6dt002802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030541 SWODY1 SPC AC 030540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 W YKM 45 SE EUG 35 W 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ...PAC NW COAST... VORT MAX NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS PERIOD. COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON /-26 TO -28 C/ SHOULD SUPPORT MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. GREATEST THREAT FOR LIGHTNING SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OLYMPICS AND COASTAL RANGES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 12:39:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 07:39:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511031239.jA3CdNob015415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031233 SWODY1 SPC AC 031231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 W YKM 45 SE EUG 35 W 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NATION TODAY...WITH SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN STATES. VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 16:07:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 11:07:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511031607.jA3G79S5005227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031551 SWODY1 SPC AC 031549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0949 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULTING IN A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PACIFIC NW...MOIST STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO GIVEN NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE DEPTH OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND INHIBIT MOST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ..IMY.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 19:42:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 14:42:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511031942.jA3Jg9vN014459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031936 SWODY1 SPC AC 031934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW COAST... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WITH A DOWNSTREAM REGION OF IMPLIED ASCENT OVER WRN AND CNTRL WA/ORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF ASCENT HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 40S W OF THE CASCADE RANGE. AS A RESULT...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS NEUTRAL OR STABLE FOR BOTH SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED PARCELS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ..MEAD.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 00:43:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 19:43:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511040043.jA40hEvr030963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040040 SWODY1 SPC AC 040039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICTS LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH EWD TRANSITION OF THESE FEATURES...LIMITED BUOYANCY PER REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN MEAGER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRIKES COULD YET OCCUR INVOF THE OLYMPIC MTNS OR WA/ORE COASTAL RANGE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 05:53:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 00:53:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511040553.jA45r0lv007422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040551 SWODY1 SPC AC 040549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 30 SE SEA 30 NW PDX 60 SW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JXN 15 S MTC 30 SSW ERI 10 WSW PIT 30 NNW HTS LEX 20 NW BWG 25 ENE PAH 35 SW SPI 25 S PIA 25 SSW MMO 25 WSW JXN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST WESTERLY UPPER FLOW PREVALENT. AS SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...COLD FRONT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...NEXT IN SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. ...OHIO VALLEY... AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MUCH TOO DRY/CAPPED DURING THE DAY TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER MODEST TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE POST-00Z ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH GRADUAL NEWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY/EVENING...WRN GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH 00Z BASED DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE LARGELY DRY...21Z SREF MEMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW-END TSTM COVERAGE. MODEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY -- GENERALLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE OR LESS PER 00Z NAM/21Z NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... UPPER TROUGH /CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND 135W/ IS FORECAST TO REACH WRN WA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING 500 MB TEMPS /AROUND -30C/ MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE WA COASTAL RANGE/PUGET SOUND VICINITY. ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 12:54:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 07:54:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511041254.jA4CskbT007505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041252 SWODY1 SPC AC 041250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 30 SE SEA 30 NW PDX 60 SW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JXN 15 S MTC 30 SSW ERI 10 WSW PIT 30 NNW HTS LEX 20 NW BWG 25 ENE PAH 35 SW SPI 25 S PIA 25 SSW MMO 25 WSW JXN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST... BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WAS EVIDENT FROM THE WRN GULF COAST TO THE GRTLKS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS WAVE WILL EJECT INTO CANADA TODAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT SLOWING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE...EVIDENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AT 13Z...WILL MIGRATE NEWD AND APPROACH THE OH VLY/MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE AGAIN TONIGHT AND ADVECT MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. UVV AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK ELEVATED THERMAL BUOYANCY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TSTM PROBABILITIES. ...PAC NW... SATL AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE CONSIDERABLE OPEN-CELL CUMULUS/LIGHTNING OFFSHORE WA/ORE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 130W. AS THIS TROUGH /H5 TEMP AOB MINUS 30 DEGREES C/ ROTATES ACROSS THE PAC NW...A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY COASTAL WA/ORE. ..RACY/BRIGHT.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 16:35:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 11:35:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511041635.jA4GZZUs012584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041629 SWODY1 SPC AC 041627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BLI 45 SSE SEA 25 SW PDX 10 ENE ONP 55 WSW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW COAST... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE WA COAST. AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/-30C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET SPREAD EWD INTO THE PAC NW...SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN PREVALENT. ...MID WEST... AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITHIN BROAD SWLY FLOW EVIDENT OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS MORNING WITH PW/S AOB 0.75 INCHES NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. THOUGH DEEP ASCENT WILL INCREASE INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF EJECTING UPPER LEVEL JET...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TOO LOW THROUGH 12Z TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 19:40:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 14:40:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511041940.jA4JeVK3025362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041938 SWODY1 SPC AC 041936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BLI 45 SSE SEA 25 SW PDX 10 ENE ONP 55 WSW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW COAST... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COASTS. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-28 TO -30 C AT 500 MB/ COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT AND TODAY OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. WHILE A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND RESULTANT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE COAST TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. ..MEAD.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 00:51:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 19:51:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511050051.jA50pqO5012745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050049 SWODY1 SPC AC 050048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI SEA OLM 40 W AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH UPPER JET STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS PERIOD...BUT THUNDER CHANCES HERE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OUT OF NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHEN...EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO SRN KS BY MORNING. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...SLY FLOW AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL EXIST...WEAK FORCING AND EXISTENCE OF DRY CAPPING LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MID MS OR OH VALLEYS. ..JEWELL.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 05:54:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 00:54:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511050554.jA55s6iR016985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050552 SWODY1 SPC AC 050550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI CMH BWG MKL MEM BVX HRO SGF COU UIN MKG 45 ESE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 35 NNE MLU 30 SW DEQ 35 SW GMJ 25 WNW LWD 40 ENE MCW 30 NE VOK GRB 45 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN LOWER MI TO NERN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... AMIDST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS. MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS TROUGH INDICATED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR PACIFIC NW ATTM. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...REACHING TO NEAR LOWER OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI REGION BY END OF PERIOD. PRONOUNCED AMPLIFICATION IS FCST...WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN SREF AND DETERMINISTIC PROGS SHAPE AND TILT OF THIS PERTURBATION BY 06/12Z. AT SFC..FRONTAL WAVE CYCLOGENESIS NOW ANALYZED OVER N-CENTRAL/NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH BEGINNING OF PERIOD THEM SHIFT NEWD...AS LOW MOVES FROM KS/OK BORDER REGION TO VICINITY NERN MO/NRN IL BY 06/00Z. CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING EXPECTED DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD INTO EARLY DAY-2...WITH PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC LOW PROBABLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI AROUND 06/12Z. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW DRAWN QUASISTATIONARY FROM SRN LM ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO NWRN OK -- SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND SWEEP SEWD OVER OK...OZARKS REGION AND WRN/NRN IL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE. MEANWHILE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA AND LOWER MI. ...GREAT LAKES TO LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... WITH MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS PATTERN COULD YIELD A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT. AS IT STANDS...SCATTERED TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL SHOULD DEVELOP MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING NEAR AND S OF SFC CYCLONE...DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT. WIDELY SCATTERED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHORT-LIVED BOW OR SUPERCELL MODES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW WITHIN FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BEFORE DEVELOPMENT OF SQUALL LINE IN SWD/DISCRETELY BACKBUILDING FASHION. CELL MOTION SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF FORCING BOUNDARY...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE THREAT LOCALLY. ANOTHER REGIME OF HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT. PRIMARY MODE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS SWD/EWD EXTENT OF ACTIVITY AWAY FROM SFC LOW...AND AS SUCH...AWAY FROM MOST INTENSE LOW LEVEL FORCING. EXAMINATION OF UPSTREAM AIR MASSES AT VARIOUS LEVELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/BUOYANT/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...BUT ALSO...STRONG CAPPING THAT SHOULD RESTRICT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. SFC...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES SAMPLE DISTINCT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME -- CONSISTING OF FORMERLY CONTINENTAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN MODIFYING OVER GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS -- AXIS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SERN LA TO ERN MS/AL. 850-700 MB ANALYSES AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD FROM MEX PLATEAU AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS MS VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CAPPING WILL RENDER TSTM AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES SMALLER AND MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT INVOF COLD FRONT. MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM OZARKS REGION NEWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA...SHIFTING INTO LOWER MI WITH WARM FROPA. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SEASONALLY STRONG SFC WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG OVER WARM SECTOR. ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE JUST N OF SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING...IN ZONE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ROUGHLY STRAIGHT LOW-MIDLEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD CHARACTERIZE MOST OF WARM SECTOR...EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY SFC CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED SFC FLOW WILL INDUCE MORE PRONOUNCED CURVATURE AND HELP TO BOOST 0-1 KM SRH TO NEAR 150 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEARS ALSO SHOULD INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...35-45 KT OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR BUT 55-65 KT INVOF WARM FRONT. EXPECT MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE TO DECLINE GRADUALLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER ABOUT 06/03Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND COOLS...ELEVATING LAYER OF OPTIMALLY BUOYANT INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 12:58:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 07:58:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511051258.jA5CwOEg023386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051255 SWODY1 SPC AC 051254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW ERI 30 NNW ZZV 55 SE LUK BWG 10 E MEM BVX HRO SGF 30 W UIN 40 SW RFD 10 SSW RQB 55 ENE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CLM 20 SW OLM 20 SW PDX 25 SW EUG 55 NW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GLD 35 SW GUC 50 SSW CAG 50 NE CAG 35 SE MHN 30 ESE BBW 40 S HSI 40 SSE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 25 ENE GGG 25 SE PRX 35 SW GMJ 25 WNW LWD 40 ENE MCW 30 NE VOK 55 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS INTO LWR MI... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WNWLY UPSTREAM JET CROSSING THE NRN GRT BASIN. THE IMPULSE SHOULD... HOWEVER...REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AND REACH THE LAKE MI AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WEAKER LEAD DISTURBANCE...NOW ENTERING WRN NEB/NW KS PER STLT...SHOULD PRECEDE MAIN IMPULSE AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY LATER TODAY. AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF RCKYS TROUGH LIKELY TO INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE MID MS VLY BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES E/NE ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY. ...MID MS/LWR OH VLY INTO LWR MI... RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE LWR TO MID MS VLY REGION THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 60 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE KSTL AND KIND AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME... EXPECT THAT STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME OVER REGION. COMBINATION OF FRONTAL UPLIFT AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM AFOREMENTIONED NEB/KS IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF IA ENE INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AND LWR MI. FARTHER S...EXPECT PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO KEEP WARM SECTOR CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...DESPITE SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING. LATE TODAY OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OVER CNTRL/ERN MO AND WRN IL IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY /1/ STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND /2/ EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS TROUGH. DEEP SWLY SHEAR ACROSS REGION WILL INCREASE TO AOA 50 KTS...AND MLCAPE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. WHILE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-LINEAR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...EXTRAPOLATION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH FROM CURRENT SATELLITE/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN W OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW DISCRETE OR QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN PARTS OF MO/IL ...WRN KY AND WRN IND GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. LATER TONIGHT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME HIGH WIND AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A MORE OR LESS SOLID SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND BOWS. DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY E/NE INTO ERN IND...LWR MI AND NW OH. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 16:28:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 11:28:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511051627.jA5GRrtg028747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051618 SWODY1 SPC AC 051616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX BWG 10 E MEM BVX 25 NNE FLP 35 WSW COU 35 SSE OTM 30 NE DBQ 40 NW MKG 15 NNW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA 15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW PUB 35 E GUC 25 NNW GUC 30 WSW EGE 35 ESE CAG 30 S LAR 20 S CYS 35 SSE IML 40 E GLD 45 NNW GCK 25 ENE LAA 20 NW PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35 ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25 NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...MID WEST... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. PRIMARY MID LEVEL JET WITH H5 WINDS FROM 75-85 KT WILL REMAIN ALONG BACK-SIDE OF THIS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL DEVELOP/SHIFT TO THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IND TONIGHT AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN KS WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO...WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW DEVELOPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY ESEWD AS LOW CENTER SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STRONGEST SHEAR OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVED MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE STRONG CAP AND RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT RISK FACTORS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG INVERSION LAYER AROUND H85 THIS MORNING AT LZK AND SGF...EXPECT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LOW CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER AS DEEP ASCENT INCREASES...EXPECT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER INTO PORTIONS OF ERN IA/IL. ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE MUCAPE WITHIN THIS REGION...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL 22Z-00Z AS CAP WEAKENS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES SHOULD ACTIVITY REMAIN SURFACE-BASED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER EVOLVE INTO OR BE OVERCOME BY SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF STEEP ASCENT PLUME DURING THE EVENING. BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/LEWP STRUCTURES WILL SUSTAIN AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT RACES EWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WIND DAMAGE COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD GIVEN SIGNIFICANT WINDS /50+ KT/ JUST OFF THE SURFACE. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THIS LINE AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT AFTER DARK MAY BE MITIGATED BY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 19:59:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 14:59:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511051959.jA5JxJ4w030052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051957 SWODY1 SPC AC 051955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 30 WSW BWG 45 WSW MEM 30 NE LIT 40 S FLP 25 WSW JEF 15 W CID 40 S LSE 20 SSW MTW 15 NNW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA 15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 SW PUB 60 SW COS 50 S 4FC 25 WNW DEN 30 E FCL 35 NE AKO 35 SSE IML 30 WSW HLC 25 ENE GCK 35 NNE EHA 35 SSE LHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35 ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25 NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MO/ OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITH ADDITIONAL...LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA. THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS CONSOLIDATING E OF MKC AS OF 19Z WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL IL INTO SRN LOWER MI. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW PRESSURE NEWD TO VICINITY OF CHICAGO BY 06/06Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL LOWER MI SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE NEWD PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MID MO AND LOWER OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MO AND OH VALLEYS... ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /REF. 18Z DVN SOUNDING/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS THIS EVENING AS STRONG...DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND MORE SO SGF INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY SERVE TO DELAY STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF MODERATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWP STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 20:06:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 15:06:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511052006.jA5K6hoe001042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052003 SWODY1 SPC AC 052002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 30 WSW BWG 45 WSW MEM 30 NE LIT 40 S FLP 25 WSW JEF 15 W CID 40 S LSE 20 SSW MTW 15 NNW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA 15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 SW PUB 60 SW COS 50 S 4FC 25 WNW DEN 30 E FCL 35 NE AKO 35 SSE IML 30 WSW HLC 25 ENE GCK 35 NNE EHA 35 SSE LHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35 ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25 NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC 50 N APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS/ OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITH ADDITIONAL...LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA. THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS CONSOLIDATING E OF MKC AS OF 19Z WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL IL INTO SRN LOWER MI. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW PRESSURE NEWD TO VICINITY OF CHICAGO BY 06/06Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL LOWER MI SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE NEWD PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MID MO AND LOWER OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /REF. 18Z DVN SOUNDING/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS THIS EVENING AS STRONG...DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND MORE SO SGF INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY SERVE TO DELAY STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF MODERATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWP STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 01:03:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 20:03:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511060103.jA613R3A032581@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060100 SWODY1 SPC AC 060059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 20 WSW BWG MKL 45 ENE LIT 10 W RKR 35 ENE MKO 45 N COU 20 W MLI 25 W MKG 45 E BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W BUF 15 S BFD 30 E MGW 20 SE HTS 15 NW TYS 20 SSW HSV 30 SW GWO 35 NNW TYR 10 E GYI 25 ENE TUL 15 WSW STJ 15 NW ALO 20 S LSE 45 NW TVC 50 ENE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS/SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MO/THE OZARKS REGION ALONG COLD FRONT/JUST AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND SEASONABLY-WARM TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER AWAY FROM FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS CAPPED PER EVENING LZK /LITTLE ROCK AR/ AND ILX /CENTRAL ILLINOIS/ RAOBS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY LINEAR WITH TIME...WHILE REMAINING CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE FRONTAL FORCING/UVV WILL BE REQUIRED TO WEAKEN CAP. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION N OF WARM FRONT--NOW INDICATED OVER NRN IL/NRN INDIANA. THOUGH MARGINAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER/ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MO/NRN AR...AND WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME ACROSS IL/IN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN TN/WRN KY. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW REMAINS SLY/SSELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...YIELDING SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD -- AS MENTIONED ABOVE -- BECOME MORE SOLIDLY LINEAR WITH TIME...EXPECT EMBEDDED ROTATION WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE -- ALONG WITH BOWS/LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURES WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE ROTATING FEATURES...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THOUGH DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR...THREAT SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN STRONG DYNAMIC COMPONENT WITH THIS EVENT AND INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING WIND FIELD. ..GOSS.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 06:10:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 01:10:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511060610.jA66AV1W024347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060608 SWODY1 SPC AC 060605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ACY 25 S DCA 25 S SSU 15 SSW JKL 35 ESE LEX 30 WNW CMH 45 SE DTW ...CONT... 25 WNW EFK 25 SSW EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU 40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE GWO 30 SW UOX 25 NNW HOP 15 N BMG 30 SSE SBN 15 SE MBL 55 W ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER LOWER MI IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS LK HURON/SRN ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 07/12Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. ...THE NORTHEAST... STORMS AND AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM OH SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LINE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS PA/NY/WV/MD/NRN VA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING...AS FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. DESPITE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THE INTENSE UPPER SYSTEM. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG LINE -- WITH SMALL-SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS LIKELY. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND EXTEND FROM ERN OH AND WV EWD INTO ERN NY/ERN PA. LESSER THREAT MAY EXTEND SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD/INTENSE -- AND THUS SEVERE THREAT MORE ISOLATED -- ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 13:02:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 08:02:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511061301.jA6D1vCn009701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061259 SWODY1 SPC AC 061257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ACY 25 S DCA 25 S SSU 15 SSW JKL 35 ESE LEX 30 WNW CMH 40 SSE MTC ...CONT... 75 NNE BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E SBY 20 W RIC 40 NNW CAE 35 WNW AUO 10 SE MEI 35 SSE GWO 25 SW UOX 20 WNW BWG 50 ESE IND 15 SSE JXN 15 ESE HTL 15 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WRN NEW ENG... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IL WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE... REACHING LK ERIE THIS EVENING...AND ERN ME/SE QUEBEC BY 12Z MONDAY. LEAD MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS OVER IND/OH ATTM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD LK ONTARIO LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM 80+ KT SPEED MAX OVER NRN MO /PER SATELLITE...VWP AND PROFILER DATA/ SWEEPS E TO THE UPR OH VLY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE IL TROUGH...AND LIKELY ASSUMPTION OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW NOW NEARING SAGINAW BAY SHOULD CONTINUE E AND LATER NE INTO ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC...WITH ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL DEEPENING. COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM LOW IS OVER FAR WRN OH ATTM. THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...PRECEDED BY WEAKENING CONFLUENCE BANDS/OUTFLOW SEGMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS. ...UPR OH VLY/NRN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC/WRN NEW ENG... BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL/ERN OH SWWD INTO KY/TN ATTM SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CELLS MAY PERSIST GIVEN 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...ACTIVITY HAS MOVED BEYOND AXIS OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN. A BIT FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM/STRENGTHEN ALONG COLD FRONT NOW IN WRN OH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER PROXIMITY TO REGION OF STRONGEST MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE STORMS WILL ALSO GET A BOOST FROM MODEST SURFACE HEATING. AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR GRT LKS/WRN PA/WRN NY. AS THE FRONTAL STORMS APPROACH CNTRL PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY... CNTRL PA AND THE MD PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...ACTIVITY WILL COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MO JET MAX. THIS MAY RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND...AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWS WITH HIGH WIND...AS DEEP SSWLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO AOA 60 KTS. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED EWD INTO THE HUDSON VLY...THE MID ATLANTIC CST AND WRN NEW ENG. BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN/NRN NEW ENG TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/DIAL/TAYLOR.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 16:20:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 11:20:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511061620.jA6GKkFr011217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061609 SWODY1 SPC AC 061607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ACY 35 W NHK 20 W ROA 40 S HTS 45 WNW HTS 25 SSW CMH 65 E MTC ...CONT... 75 NNE BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SBY 10 N AVC 35 SW GSO 10 S GSP 35 NW AHN 15 E RMG 30 NNE CHA 35 ENE LEX 20 NW MFD 30 SSE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY 80-100 KT MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES TODAY...WHILE SURFACE LOW CENTER SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF MI AND INTO CANADA. A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER...AND WILL SWEEP EWD OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES. ...OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... CLASSIC LARGE SCALE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS EVOLVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS OH AS OF 16Z WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING. MAIN DETRIMENT TO SEVERE MAGNITUDE TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVELS OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG. 12Z ILN AND PIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY 600-900 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY FARTHER NE INTO BUF OR ALB. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES EWD...40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN AND ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING AS WELL WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AND WIND PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY A SQUALL LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE THREAT AREA FROM CENTRAL PA INTO NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LOW...AND ALTHOUGH MOSTLY LINEAR IN MODE...STORMS MAY BECOME CELLULAR AT TIMES OR THERE MAY BE EMBEDDED STRONG MESOCYCLONES WITHIN A LINE. ..JEWELL/EVANS.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 19:50:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 14:50:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511061949.jA6JnqoA014806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061946 SWODY1 SPC AC 061944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNE BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID ...CONT... 50 SE ACY 35 W NHK 20 W ROA 50 SSE HTS 25 WNW CRW HLG 30 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SBY 10 N AVC 35 SW GSO 10 S GSP 35 NW AHN 15 E RMG 25 NNE CHA 35 W HTS 25 SW CAK 30 NW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NY/PA/WV EWD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD WITH AN ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ACROSS IND/OH AND KY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...WHILE ATTENDANT SPEED MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW HAS OCCLUDED OVER NRN LAKE HURON WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ...NY/PA/WV EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY SWD TO NRN WV. ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE HAS TENDED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE /I.E. MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG/...HOWEVER INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS EWD ACROSS PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG WITH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATING 50 KT+ SWLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND INVOF ONGOING TSTMS. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIKELY WITH ANY BOWING OR LEWP STRUCTURES FORMING WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE. SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS /0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KTS/. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. ..MEAD.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 00:41:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 19:41:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511070041.jA70fKJK027316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070039 SWODY1 SPC AC 070037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ACY 30 NW DCA 30 SSW MSV 30 NW GFL 10 SSE RUT 15 ENE ORH 50 ENE HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 40 NNW AVC 15 ENE PSK 15 ESE IPT 15 N ITH 20 W MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN NY/SERN PA/NJ... LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -- JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY/ERN PA ATTM. CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE -- PARTICULARLY FROM SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH NEWD. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES INTO THIS REGION. FURTHER S -- FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..GOSS.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 05:43:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 00:43:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511070543.jA75haBM002098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070541 SWODY1 SPC AC 070540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW TOL 15 S CLE 10 WNW MGW 30 SW BLF 35 SE BWG 20 SE CGI 40 NE VIH 30 SE IRK BRL 25 W MMO 20 WNW TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 45 E AST 45 SW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI 30 SSW VCT 45 SSE LBX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD AREA OF GENERALLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS NERN U.S. TROUGH DEPARTS. FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS/ERN PACIFIC. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION AS 50 KT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES AFTER SUNSET. ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IN AND VICINITY DURING THE EVENING AS RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS NOW OVER TX ADVECTS NEWD OVER COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WITH SREF DATA SUGGESTING ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...A FEW RELATIVELY VIGOROUS STORMS MAY DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGEST THAT A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED/STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 16:33:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 11:33:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511071633.jA7GXLK2024407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071612 SWODY1 SPC AC 071611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25 N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25 ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 50 ESE OLM 45 ESE SLE 35 SE OTH 50 WSW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LRD 45 NNW ALI 10 ENE VCT 45 S GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST WHERE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST OVERNIGHT. POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN WA ATTM MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE IN WRN WA/NWRN ORE TODAY. ELSEWHERE...AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW ADVECTING NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BECOME PLENTIFUL INTO CENTRAL/SERN TX THIS MORNING...WITH H85 DEW POINTS AOA 10C EVIDENT AT OUN/LZK/SHV. THIS ROBUST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN TX AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL FUEL INCREASING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER DARK INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO IND/OH/KY... A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUSTAIN SWLY LLJ ANCHORED OVER PORTIONS OF OK/MO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK WITH H85 JET MAX NEAR 50 KT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF THIS JET WILL INCREASE ASCENT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO 00Z...THOUGH EVEN THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM NEAR 16C ATOP A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD OVER MUCH OF IL/IND/SWRN OH/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION... CLOUD-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION /INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS/... SUGGESTING AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE HAIL REMAIN WARRANTED. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 20:03:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 15:03:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511072003.jA7K3GBN014416@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 072000 SWODY1 SPC AC 071959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25 N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25 ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 50 ESE OLM 45 ESE SLE 35 SE OTH 50 WSW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LRD 40 E AUS 25 SE UTS 40 S BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...IL/IN... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO SWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENCE BY LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS. AS LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM INTO A MORE FOCUSED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS IL/IN LATE TONIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IT APPEARS ASCENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LLJ ATOP SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS SCENARIO SUPPORT UNINHIBITED BUOYANCY FOR PARCELS LIFTED BETWEEN 900-850MB. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK...MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000J/KG. DEEP WLY COMPONENT AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...THUS THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SEVERE RISK. ..DARROW.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 00:54:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 19:54:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511080054.jA80sRYU016421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080052 SWODY1 SPC AC 080051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25 N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25 ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEY REGION... EVENING ILX /CENTRAL IL/ RAOB CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS THAT 500 TO 750 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING AS MODEST MOISTENING IN THE 850 TO 900 MB LAYER /ASSISTED BY INTENSIFYING WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET/ CONTINUES. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...MODESTLY-STRONG BUT GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD YIELD ONLY MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- THUS SUGGESTING GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS. THOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 06:15:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 01:15:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511080615.jA86FATL008298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080612 SWODY1 SPC AC 080611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CLE 20 SSW HLG 20 ENE CRW 30 SSE HTS 15 N SDF 25 E MVN 25 NNW STL 40 SW BRL 25 WSW LSE 30 W CWA 50 ENE AUW 20 ESE MBL 10 NE FNT 25 S MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER 50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE TRM 35 SSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV 30 NW DCA 45 E RIC 25 NE RWI 25 W TRI BWG 20 WSW CGI 15 N TBN 40 S MSP IWD 90 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 40 N SAT 20 SE TPL 35 NW LFK 40 E LFK 45 ESE GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN CA COAST. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES EWD. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR NOSE OF WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEAR AND N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. WITH MOST CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST -- WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN LESS ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS N OF CENTRAL IL -- WITH CAPPING FORECAST TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW ALONG FRONT. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 09/12Z. ..GOSS.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 07:27:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 02:27:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511080726.jA87Qfjb026916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080723 SWODY1 SPC AC 080721 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CLE 20 SSW HLG 20 ENE CRW 30 SSE HTS 15 N SDF 25 E MVN 25 NNW STL 40 SW BRL 25 WSW LSE 30 W CWA 50 ENE AUW 20 ESE MBL 10 NE FNT 25 S MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER 50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE TRM 35 SSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV 30 NW DCA 45 E RIC 25 NE RWI 25 W TRI BWG 20 WSW CGI 15 N TBN 40 S MSP IWD 90 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 40 N SAT 20 SE TPL 35 NW LFK 40 E LFK 45 ESE GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VLY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN CA COAST. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES EWD. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR NOSE OF WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEAR AND N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. WITH MOST CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST -- WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN LESS ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS N OF CENTRAL IL -- WITH CAPPING FORECAST TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW ALONG FRONT. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 09/12Z. ..GOSS/TAYLOR/JPR.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 13:02:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 08:02:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511081301.jA8D1kt7009280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081259 SWODY1 SPC AC 081258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ZZV 20 ENE CRW 45 SSE HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 E MVN 25 NNW STL 40 SW BRL 25 WSW LSE 30 W CWA 50 ENE AUW 20 ESE MBL 10 NE FNT 25 S MTC 15 WNW ZZV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER 50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE TRM 35 SSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 40 N SAT 20 SE TPL 35 NW LFK 40 E LFK 45 ESE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV 30 NW DCA 45 E RIC 25 NE RWI 25 W TRI BWG 20 WSW CGI 15 N TBN 20 NE MKT 40 SE BRD 35 N ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST/OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... A SEASONABLY UNUSUAL...POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST THIS PERIOD AS SPEED MAX NOW CROSSING THE NRN RCKYS TEMPORARILY PHASES WITH SRN STREAM JET NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN TO CARVE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER WRN ONTARIO AND THE UPR GRT LKS. LEE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER ERN MT SHOULD TRACK E ACROSS THE DAKS TODAY BEFORE UNDERGOING RAPID DEEPENING OVER NRN MN/SW ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPR SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT. FARTHER S...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT WAVE MAY FORM LATER TODAY ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT IN NRN IA. THE WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE NE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SURGES NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN WI AND WRN/SRN LWR MI. ...GRT LKS/MIDWEST/OH VLY... TSTMS NOW OVER THE MID OH VLY...ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION MAX...SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF WV/WRN VA. MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY MAY FORM UPSTREAM ACROSS SW OH/IND/KY AND IL LATER TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND JUST S OF STALLING W-E COOL FRONT. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE DAY...GIVEN QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN /WARM SECTOR PWS AOA 1 INCH/ AND 40-45 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IF SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS ERN IA/IL/WI/IND AND LWR MI THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS...AND MAIN NRN STREAM JET STREAK APPROACHES REGION. THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH ALONG AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IN IA/WI/IL...AND POSSIBLY ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM MN SURFACE LOW. ASSOCIATED RAPID NEWD SURFACE DESTABILIZATION FROM MLI/DBQ AREA TO CHI/MKE/SW LWR MI MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 16:36:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 11:36:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511081635.jA8GZjQR017490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081625 SWODY1 SPC AC 081623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CLE 50 ENE LUK 15 NW BMG 35 E UIN 20 ENE CID 35 WNW LNR 30 ENE VOK 15 WNW MTW 25 E RQB 20 NNW MTC 15 N CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW VBG 30 NNE PRB 25 ESE FAT 25 E BIH 60 ESE TPH 30 NNE LAS 65 WNW EED 35 NE RAL 55 S LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 E BFD 30 WNW BWI 25 S RIC 20 SW AVC 20 NE HSS CSV 30 ESE FAM 35 WNW COU 35 NNE DSM 35 E MKT 35 SSE ASX 30 NNE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 30 E AUS 40 SSE CRS 35 N LFK 45 E GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY... RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MID WEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY...H85 WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL SUSTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM ERN IND/OH INTO WRN PA/WV. H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH WITH 50+ KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN LAKE MI REGION BY 06Z. ALOFT...CURRENT MODEST WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AS 130+ KT H25 SPEED MAX /80+ KT AT H5/ SHIFTS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN EWD ACROSS NRN MN...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI AND INTO LOWER MI AFTER 06Z. IN ADDITION...UNSEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVELS EXTEND FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY INTO CENTRAL MO. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND ILN INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP / 6.7 C/KM FROM H85-H5/ ATOP A MOIST BUT COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL WAA MAY SUSTAIN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THIS REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IND. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CINH WITHIN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE AFTER DARK AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN COOL/STABLE...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT BECOME ENHANCED. THERE REMAINS CONCERN THAT DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL MIXING/LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT/TRIPLE POINT MAY OVERCOME SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 0-1 KM AND LOW LCLS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SRN WI/NRN IL/NRN IND AND PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SURFACE PARCELS BE TAPPED. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 20:17:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 15:17:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511082017.jA8KHQaJ004994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082007 SWODY1 SPC AC 082006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CRW HTS 35 ENE LEX 45 E BMG SPI 25 WSW OXV FRM 10 WSW EAU CWA MBS 10 WNW YNG PIT 40 E CRW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW VBG 40 ENE MRY 60 NE MER TPH 60 ESE TPH 30 NNE LAS 65 WNW EED 35 NE RAL 55 S LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 E BFD 30 WNW BWI 25 S RIC 20 SW AVC 20 NE HSS 35 ENE CSV 25 WNW MDH 35 ESE STJ 30 W SUX 25 ESE BKX 40 WSW DLH 30 NNE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 30 E AUS 40 SSE CRS 35 N LFK 45 E GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE UPR MS VLY THROUGH PARTS OF THE OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.... ...UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...NOW SHIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ON LEADING EDGE OF GULF RETURN FLOW...WHERE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL WEAKENING TRENDS COMMENCE...A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL SEEMS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES... MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE ACCELERATES FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ANOTHER WAVE IS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LATTER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH IS ACCELERATING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...JUST AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL OVERCOME INHIBITION FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...BUT LIMITED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF SURFACE WAVE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 9 01:29:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 20:29:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511090129.jA91TPGu015492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090127 SWODY1 SPC AC 090125 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRW HTS 40 NE LEX 35 ESE IND 20 SSW BMI 20 ESE OTM 25 ESE MCW 10 WSW EAU 35 NNW GRB 20 NNW HTL 10 WNW YNG HLG 20 NE CRW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 20 WNW PHL 10 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRY 45 ESE MRY 25 S FAT 30 W PMD 55 SW LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ORF 20 SW AVC 10 W TRI 30 ESE SDF 50 NNW EVV 10 E CDJ 45 E DNS RWF 55 ESE BRD 30 N IWD 35 NNW MQT 20 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WV...WHILE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER N CENTRAL INDIANA JUST N OF WARM FRONT...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS NRN IL/NRN INDIANA/OH NOW INTO WI/MI. THOUGH CAPPING IS STRONGER FURTHER W...SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...AS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE A FEW SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM. ...COASTAL SRN CA... AREA OF SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES -- WILL EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-20C/ -- AND THUS GREATEST INSTABILITY -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS POINT CONCEPTION AND VICINITY. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF ONSHORE TORNADO BENEATH A STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 9 02:01:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 21:01:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511090201.jA9215SV000460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090156 SWODY1 SPC AC 090155 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRW HTS 40 NE LEX 35 ESE IND 20 SSW BMI 20 ESE OTM 25 ESE MCW 10 WSW EAU 35 NNW GRB 20 NNW HTL 10 WNW YNG HLG 20 NE CRW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 20 WNW PHL 10 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRY 45 ESE MRY 25 S FAT 30 W PMD 55 SW LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ORF 20 SW AVC 10 W TRI 30 ESE SDF 50 NNW EVV 10 E CDJ 45 E DNS RWF 55 ESE BRD 30 N IWD 35 NNW MQT 20 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER GRAPHIC ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WV...WHILE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER N CENTRAL INDIANA JUST N OF WARM FRONT...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS NRN IL/NRN INDIANA/OH NOW INTO WI/MI. THOUGH CAPPING IS STRONGER FURTHER W...SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...AS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE A FEW SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM. ...COASTAL SRN CA... AREA OF SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES -- WILL EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-20C/ -- AND THUS GREATEST INSTABILITY -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS POINT CONCEPTION AND VICINITY. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF ONSHORE TORNADO BENEATH A STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 9 02:02:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 21:02:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511090202.jA922O5A001216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090158 SWODY1 SPC AC 090156 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRW HTS 40 NE LEX 35 ESE IND 20 SSW BMI 20 ESE OTM 25 ESE MCW 10 WSW EAU 35 NNW GRB 20 NNW HTL 10 WNW YNG HLG 20 NE CRW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BUF 20 WNW PHL 50 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRY 45 ESE MRY 25 S FAT 30 W PMD 55 SW LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ORF 20 SW AVC 10 W TRI 30 ESE SDF 50 NNW EVV 10 E CDJ 45 E DNS RWF 55 ESE BRD 30 N IWD 35 NNW MQT 20 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER GRAPHIC ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WV...WHILE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER N CENTRAL INDIANA JUST N OF WARM FRONT...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS NRN IL/NRN INDIANA/OH NOW INTO WI/MI. THOUGH CAPPING IS STRONGER FURTHER W...SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...AS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE A FEW SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM. ...COASTAL SRN CA... AREA OF SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES -- WILL EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-20C/ -- AND THUS GREATEST INSTABILITY -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS POINT CONCEPTION AND VICINITY. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF ONSHORE TORNADO BENEATH A STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 11/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 10 16:58:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 11:58:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511101657.jAAGvrpM017712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101632 SWODY1 SPC AC 101631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S VBG 40 SW BFL 30 SSE FAT 35 S TVL 30 W LOL 55 W OWY 35 W TWF 25 SE BYI 25 NE DPG 55 SE U24 15 WSW 4BL 60 W FMN 50 WSW GUP 65 E PHX 40 S GBN 75 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 25 W COT 35 E COT 15 NW CRP 50 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD OVER THE NE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE ERN SEABOARD...WITH TRAILING SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. IN THE WEST...PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD TODAY OWING TO UPSTREAM KICKER. ...SRN CA/GREAT BASIN... UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA. EWD SPREADING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS ACROSS SRN CA AND MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS SRN CA INTO AZ OWING TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS/MODEST BUOYANCY ADVERTISED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER/EVANS.. 11/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 10 19:37:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 14:37:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511101937.jAAJbMdY016651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101935 SWODY1 SPC AC 101934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSW MRY BFL 25 E SCK 65 ESE RBL 10 S AAT REO 45 N SUN IDA 40 ENE MLD U24 PGA INW 70 ESE PHX 55 SSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN CUT-OFF FROM STRONGER/MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTH BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES... APPEARS TO FINALLY BE UNDERWAY. THIS IS OCCURRING AS BROADLY CYCLONIC NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ...SRN CALIFORNIA INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... PRIMARY IMPULSE IS STILL ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WELL OFFSHORE... AND NOT PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY WHERE OROGRAPHY ENHANCES FORCING NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR LAS VEGAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 11/03-06Z...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/ DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 11/12Z. ...SOUTHERN TEXAS... GIVEN CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIMITED TO UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. ..KERR.. 11/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 00:51:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 19:51:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511110051.jAB0ptkR022552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110046 SWODY1 SPC AC 110044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S VBG 25 SSW SCK 30 ENE SAC 15 NW RNO 30 NNW LOL 25 NNE WMC 15 NE OWY 50 S BYI 25 WSW OGD 30 WNW U28 30 SSW 4BL 10 ESE INW 20 NE PHX 20 SSE YUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN/CNTRL CA ACROSS GREAT BASIN... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG DPVA AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF POINT CONCEPTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOISTENING AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CNTRL/ERN CA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PROCESS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NV AND THEN TO UT/NRN AZ THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE MODEST DYNAMICS...LATEST SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 250 J/KG/ SHOULD RESTRICT UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND PERSISTENCE. ..CARBIN.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 05:35:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 00:35:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511110535.jAB5ZGIX025333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110532 SWODY1 SPC AC 110531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BLH 60 WNW EED 10 S DRA 70 NW P38 60 NNE ENV 15 NW PIH 30 NW WEY 40 WNW COD 60 WNW RIW 10 SE BPI 50 NNW VEL 50 WNW CAG 40 S RWL 20 NNE CYS 50 SE AIA 35 NNE LBF 20 NW GRI 35 ESE HSI 40 WNW CNK 10 S HLC 40 ESE LAA DHT 35 E 4CR 40 S SAD 25 NE GBN 65 ENE BLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 NNW SEA 35 WNW HQM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE OVER SRN CA IS FCST TO DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATER TODAY AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...AND SOUTH THIS PERIOD WHILE DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW MAINTAINS A COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES... LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LOCALLY INCREASE IN AREAS OF FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND DIURNAL FORCING BY AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND NAMKF POINT FCST SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING MUCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NRN AZ/NM BORDER BY AROUND 18Z AND THIS INSTABILITY COULD FUEL ISOLATED STRONGER UPDRAFTS. STORMS FORMING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AOB 0.75 INCH IN DIAMETER BASED ON SPC HAIL MODEL OUTPUT. AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...OLYMPIC PENINSULA... THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG A VARIETY OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA THAT WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PUGET SOUND AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 16:36:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 11:36:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511111635.jABGZtRo007824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111626 SWODY1 SPC AC 111625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 ENE AST 20 SSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 ENE AST 50 SW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 35 ESE HOB 35 WNW PVW 15 SSE TCC 10 ESE 4CR 35 NE SAD 10 S PHX 65 WSW PRC 50 SSW LAS 30 N DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E ENV 30 NW RKS 35 ENE RWL 20 S TOR 10 SSE EAR 20 SW BIE 20 SSW TOP 40 SE OKC 40 NW SEP 30 E JCT 20 SSW SAT 10 N VCT 40 SSE LBX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWEST STATES... LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AZ...ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST CO AND NORTHWEST NM. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM WEST TX INTO KS AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 19:29:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 14:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511111928.jABJSwkt009157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111927 SWODY1 SPC AC 111925 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW MRF 35 ESE HOB 35 WNW PVW 15 SSE TCC 10 ESE 4CR 35 NE SAD 10 S PHX 65 WSW PRC 10 NNE EED 20 NNE LAS 50 SSE ELY 25 E ENV 30 NW RKS 35 ENE RWL 20 S TOR 10 SSE EAR 20 SW BIE 20 SSW TOP 40 SE OKC 40 NW SEP 30 E JCT 20 SSW SAT 10 N VCT 40 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 ENE AST 50 SW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWEST STATES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER AZ/SRN UT PER WV IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE ENE REACHING THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN CO/ NWRN NM...IS LOCATED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OROGRAPHY COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE ENE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SWRN TROUGH. THIS LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH WAA REGIME SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 00:58:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 19:58:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511120057.jAC0vvsf025468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120055 SWODY1 SPC AC 120053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MRF 55 NNW MRF 55 WNW CVS 10 NE LVS 15 ESE DRO 10 SW 4HV 55 WNW PUC 20 E SLC 40 WNW RKS 25 SSE CPR 20 W MHN 15 NNW BUB 15 SSE DNS 30 SSW DSM 25 SE LWD 55 SW SZL 15 SSW GMJ 50 W GYI 45 SW ABI 50 SW SJT 40 WNW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE WAS CONTINUING TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ISOLATED CG LTG STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NERN PLAINS OF NM AND ERN PLAINS OF CO WHERE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATED MUCAPE WAS IN THE RANGE OF 100-150 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EAST AND LARGE SCALE LIFT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY OCCUR ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SENDING MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM TX TO IA THROUGH 12Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD ACT TO LOCALLY OVERCOME NEGATIVE BUOYANCY AND PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND SPC EXPLICIT TSTM GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO TO SOME EXTENT...WITH BOTH INDICATING POCKETS OF AT LEAST 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE GENL TSTM OUTLOOK... FROM TX TO IA...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 05:59:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 00:59:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511120558.jAC5wxlm012019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120556 SWODY1 SPC AC 120555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 10 WNW OLU 20 E YKN 10 NE OTG 30 ENE MKT 35 SSE EAU 25 SSE VOK 25 ENE MLI 25 E BRL 20 N FAM 20 S JBR 40 ESE PBF 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 35 E EMP 20 E CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ANJ 10 NNE BAX 15 SE DAY 20 NE BNA 25 W MSL 30 N HEZ 35 SSE POE 65 SW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE BRO 50 N MFE 50 ESE LRD 20 SW COT 55 WSW HDO 45 SSW JCT 25 NE JCT 25 NW MWL 25 SSE CHK 25 WSW ICT 30 W HUT 15 NW GCK 30 ENE LAA 30 WSW ITR 25 ENE AKO 50 ENE SNY 10 WNW 9V9 25 SW DTL 40 ENE BJI 30 N INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAMS PRODUCES A DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY FORMING ACROSS NEB...WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY TO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EVENING. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD/NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND BE SITUATED FROM NRN TX TO ERN OK/SWRN MO LATER TODAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE OVER MO AND THEN SETTLE SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEB/IA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING FROM MO TO MN. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 TO 1000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...FROM ERN KS/NEB NEWD TO IA/SRN MN. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVERCOME LOW LEVEL CAP TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL INITIATION OVER ERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND NRN MO DURING THE EVENING AND PROBABLY BECOME INCREASING LINEAR AND ELEVATED WITH TIME. DESPITE THE NARROWNESS OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS MO/IA/SRN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SURFACE-BASED SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 200-400 M2/S2 PER NAM/NAMKF SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST THAT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR. A GREATER CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WINDS AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM SERN MN TO WRN IL BY LATE EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MASS INFLOW APPEAR TO FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM MO NWD...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING FROM NERN TX/ERN OK TO WRN AR/SWRN MO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAPPING SHOULD BE OVERCOME AHEAD OF A WEAK DRYLINE IN THESE AREAS AND SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION BEFORE DARK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-50KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE AFTER DARK FROM AR SWWD TO TX AS INITIAL ACTIVITY MERGES AND DEEPENING COLD POOL MAINTAINS LIFT AND STORM REGENERATION IN MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH THIS LINEAR MCS AS IT SPREADS SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 12:56:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 07:56:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511121256.jACCuAsC016943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121253 SWODY1 SPC AC 121251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FNB 35 NNE LNK 35 NNW SUX 10 NW OTG 35 SSE MSP 30 NE RST 45 NNW DBQ 25 NW MLI 25 SSE BRL 45 WSW FAM 30 SSE BVX 25 ENE ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 25 ENE CNU 20 SW FNB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ANJ 10 NNE BAX 15 SE DAY 20 NE BNA 25 W MSL 30 N HEZ 35 SSE POE 65 SW 7R4 ...CONT... 65 NE BRO 50 N MFE 50 ESE LRD 20 SW COT 55 WSW HDO 45 SSW JCT 25 NE JCT 25 NNW MWL 25 N OKC 35 NW PNC 45 S RSL 25 SSW HLC 10 SW GLD 40 E AKO 45 SE AIA 40 ENE AIA 20 SSE PIR 25 SW DTL 40 ENE BJI 30 N INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX TO IA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX/OK/KS/NEB THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD TO IA/MO/AR BY THIS EVENING...AND ACCELERATE NEWD WHILE GRADUALLY PHASING WITH A SEPARATE MID LEVEL TROUGH /NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/ LATE TONIGHT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED 994 MB SURFACE CYCLONE IN CENTRAL NEB WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE...REACHING CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE TRAILING THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...NE TX TO IA AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE SURGING NWD FROM TX ACROSS CENTRAL OK/KS TOWARD ERN NEB. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z AND 12Z REVEAL A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OFFSET E OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS...IN THE REGION OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BELT OF ASCENT WILL BE E OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR BY THIS AFTERNOON ...AND MAY SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN OK/WRN AR ACROSS MO/WRN IL/ERN IA. W OF THIS BELT OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION...A NARROW INSTABILITY CORRIDOR /MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED FROM NE TX/ERN OK NWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN KS/WRN MO TO WRN AND CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE E OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD DURING THE EVENING ACROSS IA...WHILE DEVELOPING SWD INTO MO. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS THE DRYLINE APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING LATE THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS IA/MO WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS. TONIGHT...THE STORMS ACROSS MO/IA WILL MOVE QUICKLY E OF THE DIMINISHING SURFACE WARM SECTOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH NEAR AND E OF THE MS RIVER AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND STORMS BECOME ROOTED ABOVE A PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND. FARTHER SW...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/FRONT ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SWWD INTO NE TX OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND/OR EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM LIFTING WELL N/NE OF THIS AREA. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 16:37:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 11:37:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511121636.jACGapi3001545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121630 SWODY1 SPC AC 121628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FNB 35 N LNK 20 E YKN 35 NW OTG 20 NNE MKT 30 NE RST 45 NNW DBQ 25 NW MLI 25 SSE BRL 45 WSW FAM 30 SSE BVX 25 ENE ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 25 ENE CNU 20 SW FNB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 25 NE COT 25 NNW HDO 15 WSW FTW 20 E OKC 30 ENE CNK 10 WSW OLU 35 E ONL 20 ENE VTN 35 NNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 15 N INL ...CONT... 35 NW CLE 45 ESE BWG 40 E TUP 30 N HEZ 45 NW LFT 55 SW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX INTO IA... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING BEFORE MERGING WITH RAPIDLY MOVING UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...REACHING SWRN MN BY 00Z AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS/WRN OK/SWRN TX WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF NEB/KS/OK AND CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. THE NRN PORTION OF THE DRY LINE FROM KS/MO NWD WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SURGE ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE WRN LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SRN PART OF THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN AR ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN PARTS OF KS AND NEB AND EXTREME WRN MO/IA THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION. A RELATIVELY NARROW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX ACROSS ERN PARTS OF OK/KS/NEB INTO WRN IA/MO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM ERN OK/WRN AR NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA...WITH A PRONOUNCED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEARING ALONG THE WESTERN PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...WHERE AN AXIS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z ETA..14Z RUC..AND 09Z ETAKF CONTROL MEMBER FROM THE SREF INDICATE THE CAP WILL DIMINISH IN THE 20-22Z PERIOD AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AS COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...INITIALLY OVER EXTREME ERN NEB SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN IA WITH ADDITIONAL SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO EXTREME ERN KS AND WRN MO. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST VALUES OF MLCAPE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SRH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ACCELERATING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DIMINISH AFTER 03-06Z ALTHOUGH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH A LOW TOPPED BAND OF STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WI AND IL LATER TONIGHT. ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NORTH CENTRAL/NERN TX/NWRN LA... INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST FROM ERN OK/WRN AR INTO CENTRAL AND ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE NRN PART OF THE BAND MOVING MORE RAPIDLY EWD INTO AR WHILE SRN PART OF BAND MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BAND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED WITH TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 20:21:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 15:21:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511122021.jACKLDKi012925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122017 SWODY1 SPC AC 122016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FLV 20 ESE YKN 20 NNW BKX 20 NNE RWF 35 SE MSP 30 WNW LSE 45 NNW DBQ 25 NW MLI 25 SSE BRL 45 WSW FAM 30 SSE BVX 25 ENE ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 25 ENE CNU 20 W FLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 25 NE COT 25 NNW HDO 15 WSW FTW 20 E OKC 30 ENE CNK 10 WSW OLU 35 E ONL 20 ENE VTN 35 NNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 15 N INL ...CONT... 35 NW CLE 45 ESE BWG 40 E TUP 30 N HEZ 45 NW LFT 55 SW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FAR SERN SD/SRN MN SWD TO NERN TX... ...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NERN NEB WITH THE TRAILING DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN NEB...CENTRAL/ERN KS AND OK. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /180-200 METERS/ SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE LOW REACHING CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAD CONTINUED TO ADVECT A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S FROM SERN SD TO CENTRAL IA...AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER REGION. GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN MN AIDING IN THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS ERN NEB/KS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG... AND UP TO 1500 J/KG OVER NRN TX. 18Z SOUNDINGS AT TOP/OMA BOTH INDICATED A LOW LEVEL CAP. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CAP IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING/PV ADVECTION SPREADS RAPIDLY ENEWD AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THIS CAP COMBINED WITH THE NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN FAR ERN NEB/WRN IA/SERN SD AND THEN SWD INTO ERN KS BY 20-21Z. STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR GIVEN DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AS INDICATED ON THE 18Z TOP/OMA SOUNDINGS. ONCE STORMS INITIATE...THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND INTO MO. THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AS COLD FRONT/FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVE AWAY FROM STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATER THREAT THIS EVENING GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM AND CONTINUATION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR LOW TOPPED STORMS. THIS THREAT MAY REACH INTO PARTS OF WI/IL. ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN TX/NWRN LA... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NERN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE NEAR TERM SEVERE THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /SPCSWOMCD/ 2404. LATER THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TENDING TO DECREASE. HOWEVER... SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX TO THE ARKLATEX REGION FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVE SEWD. ..PETERS.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 00:52:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 19:52:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511130052.jAD0qPHm000905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130050 SWODY1 SPC AC 130048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE FRM 30 SW RWF 40 S AXN 25 NW STC 55 S DLH 45 W RHI 35 E VOK 25 E MLI 30 W SPI 25 SW FAM 30 SE BVX 35 E ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT FTW 50 N JLN 25 NNE OXV 35 SE FRM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW CLE 45 ESE BWG 40 E TUP 30 N HEZ 45 NW LFT 55 SW 7R4 ...CONT... 55 ESE CRP 25 NE COT 20 NNW HDO 10 ENE MWL 40 SSE CQB 15 ESE OJC DSM 20 SW FSD 35 NW ATY 20 NW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO WRN GREAT LAKES... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT 70-80 KT JET STREAK LOCATED ALONG DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS FROM NRN MO INTO WI. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN THE DEEPENING OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NRN WI OR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 13/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OBSERVED EARLIER OVER CNTRL IA HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS THEY ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ACROSS NRN AND ERN IA /PER 00Z DVN AND MPX SOUNDINGS/. STRENGTHENING OF UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WARM SECTOR AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE NEWD...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SOME SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN IA INTO SRN MN. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED IN REGIONAL SOUNDING AND VAD/PROFILER DATA...THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING. OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITHIN REGION OF STRONG FORCING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...OZARKS INTO THE ARKLATEX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SWRN MO AND SERN OK ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR DRYLINE WHERE LOCALLY WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE HAVE OVERCOME CAP. PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM CNTRL AR NWD INTO THE OZARKS HAVE LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AS OBSERVED BY THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING. MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN OK YIELDS MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 00Z SGF HODOGRAPH AND DE QUEEN AR PROFILER/ INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. SHOULD STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LINEAR OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 05:24:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 00:24:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511130523.jAD5Njt4011357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130521 SWODY1 SPC AC 130519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 6R6 40 W BWD 20 E DUA 15 NNW RUE 30 E MVN 25 WSW LUK 40 E LUK 25 NNW HTS 20 SSE HTS 40 ESE LOZ 20 SSW TYS 20 ENE GAD 25 S BHM 40 E MEI 40 S MEI 40 SE PIB 25 ESE GPT 20 ENE BVE 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 70 ESE CRP 40 S ALI 25 SW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC...MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...AND NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH TRAILING PORTION OF BOUNDARY SETTLING MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SEWD FROM ALBERTA INTO ERN MT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO ERN TX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY PERHAPS INTO ERN TX ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING OWING TO THE VEERING/WEAKENING OF THE LLJ. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TX COAST NWD ACROSS ERN TX INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ LATER TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT AND/OR ANY PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE MS RIVER WWD INTO ERN/SERN TX. LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AOB 30 KTS/ SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERITY/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 12:55:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 07:55:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511131255.jADCt8mW028423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131253 SWODY1 SPC AC 131251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 6R6 30 NNW JCT 20 E DUA 25 W RUE 25 SSW CGI 25 WSW LUK 40 E LUK 25 NNW HTS 20 SSE HTS 40 ESE LOZ 20 SSW TYS 25 ENE GAD 15 SSW BHM 45 SSW TCL 20 SSE MEI 10 SW PIB MSY 40 ESE 7R4 55 S 7R4 ...CONT... 60 S PSX 20 SW CRP 25 SW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WEAKEN. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SLOWLY SEWD INTO TX/AR. THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 66-70 F/ IS CONFINED TO AR/LA/TX TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...AND S/SW OF A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN AR/NW MS. ...CENTRAL TX TO NW LA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WIND FIELDS SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE AS THE MS VALLEY SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD...LEAVING MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER TX/LA/MS/SRN AR. STILL...MODIFIED FCST AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND NW LA. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THE DIFFUSE REMNANTS OF DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL...WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL/ISOLATED. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 16:35:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 11:35:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511131634.jADGYwmi031943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131623 SWODY1 SPC AC 131621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 6R6 40 NE SJT 20 W GYI 25 NNW MLC 15 ESE FYV 30 WNW ARG 25 NNE EVV 35 S FDY MFD 25 N PKB 45 S HTS 30 W RMG 45 NNW MOB 45 S 7R4 ...CONT... 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...LEAVING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT. ...TX/AR/LA/MS... SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM WESTERN AR INTO CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS MIDWESTERN TROUGH DEPARTS AREA. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST AR/WESTERN MS...GENERALLY FROM 18-00Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DARK. LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...AND RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY TODAY. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 19:47:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 14:47:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511131946.jADJkj5o011787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131945 SWODY1 SPC AC 131943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD ...CONT... 35 SE 6R6 40 NE SJT 20 W GYI 25 NNW MLC 15 ESE FYV 30 WNW ARG 20 WSW SDF 30 E DAY 30 NE CMH 25 N PKB 45 S HTS 30 W RMG 45 NNW MOB 60 SSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD ONTARIO/ QUEBEC...LEAVING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SRN PORTION OF TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD INTO MS/SRN AR AND ACROSS ERN/SRN TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER AR/NRN MS...NOW EXTENDED FROM SRN AL WNWWD TO SRN AR. ...TX/AR/LA/MS... EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CU/TCU AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NRN LA/ERN TX. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...WITH ANY ACTIVITY WEAKENING QUICKLY AFTER DARK. ..PETERS.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 00:46:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 19:46:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511140046.jAE0k6vq030343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140044 SWODY1 SPC AC 140042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE 6R6 15 ESE BWD 15 ESE DEQ 45 SSE BVX 25 SSW CKV 35 S BNA 25 SSE HSV 45 NNW MOB 80 S HUM ...CONT... 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM WRN TN SWWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND INTO SWRN TX NEAR DRT. DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOB MOIST ADIABATIC/ OBSERVED ON 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...BOUNDARY-LAYER MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 11-13 G/KG COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL TX. TSTMS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT N OF SHV...AS WELL AS IN WARM SECTOR S OF LFK. THUS FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED RATHER DISORGANIZED...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF THE POOR LAPSE RATES...MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE /REF. INVERSION AROUND 630 MB ON 00Z SHV SOUNDING/. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MEXICO. A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND SLOWLY STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 05:53:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 00:53:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511140553.jAE5rGs3032501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140551 SWODY1 SPC AC 140549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JEF 15 W MVN 30 NW LUK 45 SE DAY 20 NNW HTS 15 ESE JKL 40 WNW CHA 15 N CBM 45 WNW JAN 25 NNW IER 15 SSW GGG 30 WSW PRX 30 NNE ADM 30 WSW BVO 30 NNE CNU 25 WSW SZL 20 ESE JEF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE CRP 65 W MFE ...CONT... 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT 30 SW ABI 40 NW MWL 40 W ADM 25 NNE OKC 10 NW PNC 35 NE ICT 10 NNE TOP 35 NNE SZL 35 NW ALN LAF 35 ENE FDY 30 SW ERI 20 SE ERI 30 NNW DUJ 30 SSW AOO 40 NNE BKW 50 N TRI 25 NNE ATL 20 E MGM 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE SAV 40 S OGB 20 W FLO 30 NNE FAY 10 N OAJ 65 ESE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/SERN KS/NERN TX INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF DIGGING... MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRECEEDING THIS LARGER-SCALE EVOLUTION...LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX OR ERN OK INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY 15/12Z. MEANWHILE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER ERN CO WITH APPROACH OF UPPER JET STREAKS AND PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO SWRN MO BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING...STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGING SWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY... RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SWLY LLJ TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS REGIME WILL SUPPORT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AND MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW. EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TODAY WITHIN THIS WAA PATTERN FROM THE LA COAST NWD TO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN AR/NRN MS AND INTO WRN/CNTRL TN/KY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...A POTENTIALLY ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN LOCAL ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2/ AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...EWD ALONG WARM FRONT. ...ERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO/WRN AND CNTRL AR... LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KT LLJ ACROSS REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. TSTMS...INITIALLY ELEVATED...WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS AR/ERN OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO SERN KS AND SRN MO. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. SHOULD STORMS BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SERN KS/NERN OK BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 13:03:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 08:03:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511141302.jAED2tME018973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141300 SWODY1 SPC AC 141258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SZL 15 NW VIH 10 NE MVN 30 SE BMG 45 SE DAY 25 N HTS 10 SE JKL 40 W CHA 30 NNW BHM 20 WSW GWO 20 NW SHV 40 NNW TYR 30 SSW MLC 40 W MKO 20 NNW BVO 25 NNW CNU 30 SSW SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT 30 SW ABI 35 NNE ABI 25 ESE SPS 15 WNW ADM 30 NE CQB 35 ENE ICT 15 E TOP 30 NNE SZL 35 NW ALN LAF 35 ENE FDY 30 SW ERI 20 SE ERI 30 NNW DUJ 30 SSW AOO 20 SE CRW 10 SE TRI 20 N AHN 15 E TOI 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 65 SE CRP 65 W MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ASE 45 NE GJT 35 NE VEL 50 NNE EVW 30 SSW JAC 15 E WEY 35 NNW COD 40 WSW SHR 10 S TOR 45 ENE FCL 10 SSE DEN 15 WNW ASE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SAV 40 S OGB 20 WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 60 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR ERN OK/NERN TX INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING FROM SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON INTO ERN OK/WRN AR BY TUE MORNING. FARTHER E...LEAD UPPER VORT MAX WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF CO/KS...BECOMING FAVORABLY PHASED WITH SECONDARY UPPER JET ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AID IN LARGE SCALE LIFT. AT THE SURFACE...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD FROM AR/NRN MS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH RELATIVELY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND A PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING THREAT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO ERN OK/AR/SRN MO WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO OH VALLEY... MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM ERN TX INTO MS WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ONGOING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SEVERE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND THIS MORNING...BUT STORMS ALONG AND/OR SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STRONG FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO SMALL SCALE BOWS POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...ERN OK/AR/SRN MO TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...TRANSPORTING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS ERN TX INTO WRN AR/ERN OK. MEANWHILE...AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH ELEVATED HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SRN MO. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...SURFACE PARCELS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AND DEEPENING LOW...ENOUGH MIXING MAY OCCUR IN A NARROW AXIS AHEAD OF LOW TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE. ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 16:37:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 11:37:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511141637.jAEGb84E023010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141631 SWODY1 SPC AC 141630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SZL VIH MVN 25 S BMG LUK 40 WSW UNI JKL HSV 25 SE TUP GWO SHV 45 NNW TYR 10 E DUA BVO 15 WSW CNU 30 SSW SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BUF 30 SE LBE 35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 55 E CRP 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT 15 ENE ABI 35 ENE SPS 10 NNW OKC 15 W END 25 NNW GAG 35 E RTN 25 E GUC 40 NNE GJT 20 SSE BPI 35 E JAC 35 NNE WRL 20 NW DGW 10 S BFF 10 SSW HLC 40 ESE SLN 20 NNE SZL 35 WSW SPI 20 NNE DNV 20 SW FWA 10 S MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SAV 40 S OGB 20 WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 60 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... POWERFUL 110KT MID LEVEL JET MAX IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...MID MS VALLEY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LYING FROM SOUTHEAST OK...ACROSS SOUTHERN AR...INTO NORTHWEST MS. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL BE BY 12Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER DARK. LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 00Z-12Z /EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT BY 12Z/. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH ELEVATED CORES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL FROM WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...LEADING INTO A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON TUESDAY. SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK DUE TO PROXIMITY OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT /RUC-NMM FARTHER SOUTH...NAM-GFS FARTHER NORTH/. POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADE WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...OH/TN VALLEYS... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY STARTING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN TN AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA. ..HART.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 20:14:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 15:14:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511142014.jAEKEDbA010461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142007 SWODY1 SPC AC 142005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SZL 15 NE VIH MVN 30 SSE BMG 10 SW LUK 50 ENE LEX 20 SE LOZ 35 NE CHA 35 WNW RMG 20 WSW CBM SHV 45 NNW TYR 10 E DUA BVO 25 SW CNU 35 SSW SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW BUF 30 SE LBE 35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 65 S PSX 50 WNW LRD ...CONT... 40 WSW DRT 25 SSW SJT 15 ENE ABI 35 ENE SPS 10 NNW OKC 15 W END 25 NNW GAG 35 E RTN 25 E GUC 40 NNE GJT 20 SSE BPI 35 E JAC 35 NNE WRL 20 NW DGW 10 S BFF 10 SSW HLC 40 SE SLN 35 NE MKC 40 NW SPI 30 NNW DNV FWA 50 ENE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE SAV 40 S OGB 20 WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 100 ESE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...EXTREME ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN TN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AR. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF HAS SPREAD NWD INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. WV IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THAT WILL SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS CROSSING INTO THE COOLER AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE BASED. POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET STREAK THAT WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM ERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK AS IT SURGES SEWD AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ..DIAL.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 00:55:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 19:55:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511150054.jAF0svJu017290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150051 SWODY1 SPC AC 150050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW SZL 30 ENE JEF 25 NE SLO 35 SE IND 25 NW LUK 50 ENE LEX 15 SW LOZ 15 SSW CSV 25 S HSV MEI 20 SSE SHV 40 NNW TYR 20 ESE ADM 40 NW BVO 25 SSE EMP 20 WSW SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW DRT 25 SSW SJT 15 ENE ABI 15 NE SPS 25 NW CHK 40 SSW AVK 40 NNW GAG 20 NW CAO 35 N CEZ 40 SE VEL 40 WNW FCL 35 SSE SNY 25 N HLC 20 ENE CNK 20 NNW CDJ 25 W PIA 50 ESE MMO 40 SSW JXN 65 NE MTC ...CONT... 55 NW BUF 30 SE LBE 35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 65 S PSX 50 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE SAV 30 S OGB 40 WSW SOP 35 ESE DAN 40 WSW ORF 55 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM SERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD IMPULSE TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DIGGING THIS LATTER SYSTEM SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADING WRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO LEAD IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER FAR SRN IL WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN KY INTO CNTRL WV. A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALSO EXISTS FROM THIS LOW NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IND INTO W-CNTRL OH. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA SWWD ALONG THE MS RIVER THEN WWD THROUGH CNTRL AR WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL AR AND CNTRL OK. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WAS DEEPENING OVER ERN CO WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ...SERN KS/ERN OK/ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS ADJUSTMENT IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEPENING CO SURFACE LOW. REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PW DATA SHOWING A RAPID NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME /LIKELY ALONG NOSE OF RETURNING ELEVATED MOISTURE SOURCE/ OVER E-CNTRL OK INTO NRN AR AND SRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS NERN OK AND NRN AR/SRN MO...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ. STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A BUOYANT BOUNDARY-LAYER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS INTO TN AND OH VALLEYS WITHIN BROADENING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING CNTRL CONUS SYSTEM. 00Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHEAR THROUGH THE OBSERVED RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER...WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENENCE OF MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 06:00:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 01:00:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511150600.jAF602hu032214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150557 SWODY1 SPC AC 150555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW FLP 35 WNW FAM ALN 30 WSW MTO 15 W BMG 20 SW SDF 10 SW BNA 30 NW MSL 10 N UOX 60 SW MEM 30 N LIT 10 SSW FLP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W FYV 30 WSW SPI 35 ESE MMO 30 ESE SBN 40 SE FWA 30 N LEX 20 WSW HSV 30 S CBM 35 S GLH 20 ENE TXK 35 N DEQ 15 W FYV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ERI 30 SSW CRW 20 NE HSS 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 45 ESE GLS 55 S CLL ACT TUL 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW LRD 55 SSE BWD 10 SW ADM 10 SW BVO 25 NNW STJ 35 S MCW 30 W CWA 10 WSW IMT 60 W ANJ 25 E ANJ ...CONT... 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD 10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...FAR NRN MS AND NERN AR... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SERN MO...CNTRL/ERN IL...MUCH OF IND...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NWRN AL AND NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... ...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS MO/IL AND INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM SWRN MO AT 15/12Z...TO NEAR STL AT 15/18Z AND INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR ONTARIO BY 16/12Z. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM CNTRL OK/AR NEWD TO ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD AHEAD OF THIS LOW WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... 15/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM THE NWRN/CNTRL GULF COAST NWD INTO THE WRN TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WITH 60 DEWPOINTS NOW TO THE OH RIVER. PERSISTENT AND STRONG SWLY LLJ OF 50-60 KTS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL AID THE RAPID NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FORECAST AS FAR N AS NRN IND BY 16/00Z. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND MOIST ADIABATIC...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM ERN OK/SERN KS EWD ACROSS AR AND SRN MO. WHILE MANY OF THIS STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED WITHIN A MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY-LAYER. INDEED...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND AR VALID 15/12-15Z INDICATE A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-55 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2. THUS...EXPECT THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL EXIST FROM ERN OK ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO. FARTHER TO THE N AND E...STORMS MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/SEVERITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SRN IL SWWD INTO AR AS DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE SURFACE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. DEVELOPING MODERATE INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THIS ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING AND LEWP STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT WITH A DISTINCT THREAT OF A SERIAL TYPE DERECHO WIND EVENT ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. OVERNIGHT...A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 12:48:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 07:48:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511151247.jAFClEIZ031822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151244 SWODY1 SPC AC 151243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FLP 35 WNW FAM 25 NNE CMI 10 N LAF 15 WNW MIE 20 N SDF 10 SW BNA MSL 45 NNW MEI 30 SSE GLH 15 SSW LIT 20 ESE FLP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW HRO 30 WSW SPI 25 N VPZ 35 SSW JXN 40 SE FWA 30 N LEX 15 NNE HSV 25 ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 40 NE IER 35 ESE TXK 40 WSW RUE 15 WNW HRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE GLS 55 S CLL 25 ENE AUS 40 NW TPL 25 ENE SEP 10 S DUA 20 NNE MLC 35 W GMJ 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN ...CONT... 25 N ERI 50 WSW EKN 30 SE TRI 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD 10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF ...CONT... 65 WNW LRD 55 SSE BWD 10 SW ADM 10 SW BVO 20 NNE FNB 25 SSW MCW 30 W CWA 10 WSW IMT 60 W ANJ 25 E ANJ. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE EVENING FOR ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...SE MO...WRN KY...SRN IL...AND WRN INDIANA.... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM CENTRAL MS AND NE AR NNEWD TO THE INDIANA/MI BORDER.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI AREA.... *** AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY *** ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVER WRN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD/NEWD TO AR/MO/IL BY THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME NE OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY SGF TO STL TO ORD THROUGH THIS EVENING. S OF THE LOW...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE/ IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS E TX/SE OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...S OF A WARM FRONT ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER AND WWD ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS...BENEATH 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY BY THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL LIFT NWD TODAY ACROSS IL/INDIANA/OH AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR THROUGH MIDDAY...AND DEVELOP SWWD INTO NE TX...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO ALSO INCREASE BY 16-18Z ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR/SE MO WITH THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MOIST PROFILES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2...ALL SUGGEST THAT LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. THESE THREATS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS AR/SE MO THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EWD/NEWD FROM THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER E WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR/MOISTURE AXIS IN THE FORM OF SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL BANDS ACROSS ERN AR AND MS NNEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW INTENSE/DAMAGING TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM CENTRAL MS/AR NNEWD ACROSS WRN TN/KY TO SRN IL AND SRN/CENTRAL INDIANA. BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXHAUST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A FORCED SQUALL LINE WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 16:41:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 11:41:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511151640.jAFGec8C022268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151630 SWODY1 SPC AC 151628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FLP 35 WNW FAM 25 NNE CMI 40 SSE SBN 35 ENE FWA 30 SSE DAY 15 ESE BNA MSL 45 NNW MEI 30 SSE GLH 15 SSW LIT 20 ESE FLP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW UNO 45 NW STL 30 WSW VPZ 30 NNE BEH 30 ENE FNT 35 NE CLE 40 WSW UNI 35 NE HSV 25 ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 40 NE IER 35 ESE TXK 35 NE DEQ 20 WNW UNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BUF 25 WSW LBE 30 E TRI 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 45 ESE GLS 30 NNW PSX 25 SSE AUS 35 NNW AUS 20 SSE CRS 35 SSE PRX 30 SE RKR 45 WNW UNO 30 SSE IRK 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD 10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF ...CONT... 40 SSE 6R6 55 SSE BWD 30 ESE DAL 15 WNW RKR 10 NW TOP 40 SE SDA 40 SSE CWA 40 SSW ESC 35 NNW PLN 25 E ANJ. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO LWR MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LWR MI AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS TO THE WRN GULF CST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO A DEEP YET PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW. THE LOW SHOULD REACH ERN LK SUPERIOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SWEEPS NNE FROM SE KS/SW MO TO LK HURON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW IN S CNTRL MO SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO E OF KSTL BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE NNE ACROSS KCHI AND KSSM TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE LOW ATTM IS SOMEWHAT SEGMENTED ...WITH SHALLOW RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LOCATED S OF MAIN FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LIFT RAPIDLY N INTO SRN LWR MI LATER TODAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES E ACROSS THE MID/LWR MS VLY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N INTO SW ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... BROAD SWATH OF SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NNE IN WIDE WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING MO SURFACE LOW. COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP SWLY SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE FROM SRN MI AND MUCH OF THE OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HIGH WIND AND HAIL. MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER WRN AR. THIS SHOULD HEIGHTEN SEVERE RISK AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES EWD AND DEVELOPS SWD INTO E TX/LA LATER TODAY. 70-80 KT DEEP SHEAR AND QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN QUASI-DISCRETE DESPITE LINEAR FORCING AND ORIENTATION OF FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO SHEAR. THUS...STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL. OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN AR/NRN MS N ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH AND SRN MI. PRESENCE OF VERY LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. SETUP SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. WHILE THE MS/OH VLY STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN SEGMENTS/SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN... AT LEAST IN PART...QUASI-DISCRETE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RISK OF WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REACH AS FAR E/NE AS THE UPR OH VLY AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 19:56:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 14:56:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511151955.jAFJtHV1021590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151951 SWODY1 SPC AC 151950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM POF 20 NW SLO 20 WNW DNV 40 SSE SBN 35 ENE FWA 30 SSE DAY 30 SE BWG 15 E MSL 40 SSW CBM 30 SSE GLH PBF POF. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLV 30 NE BMI 20 S CGX 20 NE BEH 20 E FNT 35 NE CLE 40 WSW UNI 35 NE HSV 25 ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 30 NE IER 10 ESE ELD 20 N ARG BLV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ROC LBE BLF LGC 30 SE MOB 40 SW BVE ...CONT... 30 S GLS 30 NNW PSX 55 SSW CLL 15 SSE CLL 10 NW LFK 15 E SHV LIT SPI 25 WNW MMO 30 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 65 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LRD 35 NNW LFK 30 SSE TXK 30 WSW BVX 20 WNW SPI 35 NW BRL 10 ESE VOK 40 SSW ESC 35 NNW PLN 15 E ANJ ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 50 E BFD HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 NNE ILM FLO CAE 40 WSW AGS 35 ENE ABY 35 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...IN...SWRN OH AND WRN KY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE WRN GULF COAST... ...E TX/LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR STL AT 19Z AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING AND LIFTING THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY NEWD TO NEAR CHI BY 00Z...AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN IL/IN INTO OH AND WILL LIFT NWD TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT...FROM ERN MO SWWD INTO ERN/SRN TX...RACES EWD THROUGH THE OHIO/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. IN THE WARM SECTOR...A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO MO THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TITLED AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...SOME TORNADIC...WERE ONGOING FROM ERN MO/IL SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING AND THE STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD FAVOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 1KM SHEAR FROM 25-40 KT INDICATES TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN AR/WRN TN NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING/ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...THE QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS...SUGGEST THAT LONG TRACK AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REFER TO TORNADO WATCHES...864...865...866 AND 867. AS THE LOW LIFTS NWD THIS EVENING...THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN TX/LA/ERN AR AND MS. LONG AND SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS PLUS LACK OF STRONG LINEAR ASCENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH LONG TRACK TORNADOES. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WHILE THE MS/OH VLY STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN SEGMENTS/SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS TONIGHT...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST THE STORMS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE UPR OH VLY AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..IMY.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 00:50:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 19:50:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511160050.jAG0o8M1009080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160047 SWODY1 SPC AC 160045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV 30 E OWB 30 NNW SDF 55 W LUK 20 W LUK 35 SE LUK 30 N LOZ 45 SW LOZ 30 WNW CHA 25 NW HSV 45 NNW MSL CKV. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW HOP 25 ENE OWB 25 SW MIE 25 WSW TOL 35 SSE DTW CLE 15 SSE ZZV 20 W TYS 20 NE TCL 10 SSW CBM 20 WNW TUP 10 SW HOP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE GLS 30 ENE HOU 25 S POE 35 ENE MLU 20 WNW UOX 45 NE MKL LAF SBN 10 NNE AZO 20 SE MBS 55 ENE BAX ...CONT... 45 N ROC 25 ESE LBE 30 SSW PSK 15 NNE CSG 15 N CEW 35 SSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MFE 40 ESE LFK 25 NNW MLU MEM 25 SSE MTO 35 NNW DNV 20 SSE RAC 35 NNW MBL 25 NNW PLN 30 E ANJ ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 50 E BFD HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 NNE ILM FLO CAE 40 WSW AGS 35 ENE ABY 35 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER MIDDLE TN...CNTRL KY INTO SERN IND... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER ERN IND...MUCH OF OH//KY/TN...NERN MS AND NRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING*** ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORK INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100-110 KT JET STREAK FROM NRN OK/SRN KS NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER NRN IL/SRN WI WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL NY. TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED FROM THIS SWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... COMPLEX...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM IND/OH SSWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOWING AND LEWP STRUCTURES. CURRENTLY MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXIST ACROSS SRN KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN WHERE SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENTLY BEING OBSERVED. HERE...IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z BNA SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 400 M2/S2. CORRIDORS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIKELY TONIGHT AS CONVECTIVE MODE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE LINEAR. FARTHER TO THE N OVER ERN IND INTO OH...CONVECTIVE MODE HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUPERCELLULAR TO MORE LINEAR OVER THE PAST HOUR WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS...THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD. OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF COAST...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAN AND BMX INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 13 G/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS MOISTURE WAS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN MS INTO WRN AL REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH 00Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 250 M2/S2. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 05:50:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 00:50:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511160549.jAG5nObs023156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160547 SWODY1 SPC AC 160545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE CHS 15 WNW CHS 30 ENE SPA 25 SSE BUF 50 NE ROC 45 W GFL 15 SSW BDL 55 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW APF ...CONT... 65 SE GPT 30 SSE SEM 30 S RMG 50 ESE LOZ 25 SE ZZV 20 NNW YNG 50 NNW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WILL PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE NERN GULF COAST AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. ...NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY AT 16/12Z ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY/PA SWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW MODEL DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NY/PA WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH STORMS BEING DRIVEN BY THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND PERHAPS A MAUL. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CLOUD-BEARING MEAN WINDS AOA 50-60 KTS INDICATE THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT CAN REACH THE SURFACE. SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND PERHAPS SERN PA/NJ. EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER THIS AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH A RESULTANT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 13:04:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 08:04:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511161304.jAGD46qq021831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161301 SWODY1 SPC AC 161300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ILM 25 SW SOP 45 NNE HKY 15 E BLF 15 NNE EKN 25 S DUJ 35 NNE BFD 30 SW MSS 30 ENE SLK 10 NNW BAF 55 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW APF ...CONT... 50 SSW PNS 25 NE TOI 60 NW AND 15 WNW BKW 15 NE PIT 50 W BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM VA/NC NWD TO NY.... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/120 KT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL LIFT NNEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WRN QUEBEC. S/SE OF THE OCCLUDED LOW...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. ...NY TO VA/NC TODAY... A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/CENTRAL PA/WRN VA THIS MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 75 MILES W OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND DOES COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO A BIT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE CLOUD/RAIN BAND AND W OF THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER/RELATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY. STILL...ROUGHLY MOIST NEUTRAL PROFILES AND 50-60 KT SSWLY FLOW WITHIN 1-2 KM OF THE GROUND MAY SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 16:32:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 11:32:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511161631.jAGGVOrJ028033@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161614 SWODY1 SPC AC 161612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW EFK 25 ENE PSF 35 SW GON ...CONT... 20 E ILM 35 SE CLT 40 NNE HKY 25 NNW LYH 10 SE SYR 10 NW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PNS 25 NE TOI 60 NW AND 15 WNW BKW 15 NE PIT 50 W BUF ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB 55 NNW PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...NORTHEAST/WRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY/NERN PA... COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS PRIMARILY NEWD INTO ERN CANADA WITH TAIL-END OF DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREADING ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TWO NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EVIDENT THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...WRN MOST LINE APPEARS TIED TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WILL LIKELY BECOME DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND MAY HINDER OVERALL THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER... STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND TEMPERED AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2447 FOR MORE DETAIL/. EWD EXTENT OF ANY RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY CURRENT WEDGE FRONT NOW PULLING NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND EWD INTO VT. ...SERN NY/ERN PA SWWD INTO THE PIEDMONT... FARTHER SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...DEEP ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEING DRIVEN MORE BY LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THIS FRONT EWD TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SEWD INTO SERN VA/CENTRAL NC BY THE EARLY EVENING. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MODEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM FAR SERN NY INTO ERN VA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL OVERCOME WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON MORNING RAOBS AND SHOULD BOOST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S. THUS...EXPECT INCREASING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL/ERN PA SWWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS LINE MOVES EWD AND BUILDS SWWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 19:56:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 14:56:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511161955.jAGJtFEa003674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161953 SWODY1 SPC AC 161951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ILM 45 SE CLT 30 ENE HKY 40 W DCA 40 W ABE 30 NW ALB 70 NNW EFK ...CONT... 60 N EFK 20 ENE MPV 25 WNW CON 20 W BOS 40 S ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AAF 30 ENE ABY 20 NNW GSP 45 NNE SHD 20 ESE IPT 35 NE UCA 75 NNE MSS ...CONT... 50 E SGJ 70 NW PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NERN STATES... ...NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES... THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NY SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 HAVE ADVECTED AS FAR NWD AS SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MUCAPES RANGE FROM BELOW 250 J/KG OVER NEW ENGLAND TO AOB 800 J/KG OVER CNTRL AND ERN NC. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CURRENTLY OVER NY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TODAY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER SWD...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...LOW TOPPED FORCED LINES OF STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER SWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NC WILL BE WEAKER THAN OVER THE NERN STATES BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF CONVECTION. SOME INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY E OF THE APPALACHIANS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 00:46:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 19:46:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511170045.jAH0jgeW010414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170044 SWODY1 SPC AC 170042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ECG 45 WNW ECG 25 ENE AVC 10 WSW RIC 15 W NHK 25 NNW SBY 50 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ILM 30 NNE CRE 40 WSW SOP 10 SSE DAN 45 ENE CHO 15 N PHL 50 ESE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A BIT ACROSS SE VA INTO SERN MD ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EAST AT ROUGHLY 25KT...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT QUICKER TO THE NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM WAL REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800J/KG. GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...BOW TYPE STRUCTURES REMAIN POSSIBLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. RIC RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 33KT AS CONVECTIVE LINE PASSED THAT AREA. WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SHIFTING NORTH INTO SERN CANADA...AND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WANING. ..DARROW.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 05:27:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 00:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511170526.jAH5QGjW013110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170524 SWODY1 SPC AC 170522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO PROGRESS SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL YIELD NEGLIGIBLE TSTM PROBABILITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW CG STRIKES COULD OCCUR INVOF GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY/LAKE CONVECTION. ..GUYER/DARROW.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 12:41:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 07:41:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511171240.jAHCet3Q004991@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171239 SWODY1 SPC AC 171237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST AND UPPER RIDGING INTO THE WRN STATES. RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES OVER THE CONUS. TRAILING SRN PERIPHERY OF WRN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS PER 12Z FL PENINSULA RAOBS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE NON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING. OTHERWISE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT/SHALLOW CONVECTION INVOF THE UPPER/ERN GREAT LAKES. ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 16:42:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 11:42:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511171641.jAHGfRBJ018609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171630 SWODY1 SPC AC 171629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DOWNSTREAM OF BLOCK IN UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ...STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES CONVERGE INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH NOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PRIMARY EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW... HOWEVER ..CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ...FLORIDA... WIND SHIFT/SHALLOW COLD FRONTAL SURGE HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS AND THE KEYS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE... RELATIVELY WARM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS. ...GREAT LAKES... CORE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK/SPARSE IN COVERAGE AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ..KERR.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 19:48:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 14:48:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511171947.jAHJlrV3015752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171945 SWODY1 SPC AC 171944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN US. A LARGE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD TONIGHT REINFORCING THE NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE SERN AND ERN US AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 00:43:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 19:43:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511180042.jAI0gE6N029024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180039 SWODY1 SPC AC 180037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NY... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SHALLOW/WEAK CONVECTION TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 05:32:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 00:32:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511180531.jAI5Vd6g001061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180530 SWODY1 SPC AC 180528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM THE ROCKIES EWD...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE CNTRL STATES AND NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SE STATES AND PREVALENT DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES THIS PERIOD. NEAR REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA/KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVE WARM LAYER/WEAK LAPSE RATES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW...WITH TSTM/LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES NEGLIGIBLE. ..GUYER/DARROW.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 12:50:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 07:50:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511181249.jAICnMTD009872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181247 SWODY1 SPC AC 181245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SE STATES...WITH DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS KEEPING TSTM PROBABILITIES NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE OF MID LEVEL WARM LAYER/WEAK LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW...WITH TSTM/LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES MINIMAL. ..GUYER/HALES.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 16:31:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 11:31:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511181630.jAIGUVwR018272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181620 SWODY1 SPC AC 181618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN NOAM THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ALBERTA SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE E COAST AND MINIMIZE TSTM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FL STRAITS. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. WARM LAYER AT 700 MB AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL LIMITED. FARTHER W...WATER VAPOR AND UPR AIR DATA SHOW A WEAK MID/UPR LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER COAHUILA IN NE MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS ALBERTA IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY SEWD. ANY LIGHTNING OCCURRING WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE RIO GRANDE. ..CORFIDI/RACY.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 19:45:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 14:45:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511181944.jAIJi7BH008056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181941 SWODY1 SPC AC 181940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN UNITED STATES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS STATES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. A SECOND FRONT OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SRN AND ERN US WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION OFF THE SERN US COAST AND ACROSS FL. DUE TO BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 00:49:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 19:49:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511190048.jAJ0mXSQ004730@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190046 SWODY1 SPC AC 190044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM EYW/MFL EXHIBIT A PSEUDO ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY THROUGH 400MB. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL AID ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF LIGHTNING. ..DARROW.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 05:36:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 00:36:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511190535.jAJ5ZC9U010160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190533 SWODY1 SPC AC 190531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 40 E DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED ZONE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT NELY OFFSHORE COMPONENT NOTED FOR ALL BUT FL DURING THE PERIOD. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION PROFILES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX...BUT MAIN BAROCLINICITY WILL EVOLVE JUST OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA. PERSISTENT ELY COMPONENT AND VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR GRADUALLY MOISTENING PROFILES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FORECASTING DEEP...MOIST ADIABATIC...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG MLCAPE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 11:45:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 06:45:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511191144.jAJBiRki009147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191143 SWODY1 SPC AC 191141 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SRQ 25 NE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO 20 NW ALI 45 SSW CLL 10 WNW LCH 40 SW 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RESIDE IN TWO AREAS. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...WHERE ENELY FLOW WILL AID IN MOISTENING LOW LEVEL PROFILES WITH TIME. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. COMBINED WITH A DEEP MID-HIGH LEVEL FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD FROM T.S GAMMA...WILL SUPPORT HIGH PWAT VALUES AND MODEST MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE... CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. FURTHER WEST...THE DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL OCCUR TODAY IN RESPONSE TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THIS REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS ...ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING AND COOLING MID LEVEL PROFILES. MODERATE WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /ROOTED AROUND 700 MB/ MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST. ..CROSBIE/HALES.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 16:34:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 11:34:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511191633.jAJGXgPa021536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191629 SWODY1 SPC AC 191627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW SRQ 35 W AGR 20 SW SGJ 35 NNE SGJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 40 SSE ALI 10 NE ALI 10 SSW VCT 10 NNE PSX 45 SSE LBX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUN MORNING. DUE TO SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 12Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED AT 700 MB AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...AS LEAD WAVE CONTINUES EWD INTO THE RIDGE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY. ...SRN FL... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST PROFILES AT MFL AND EYW WITH DEEP ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FL THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...EFFECTS OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY HELP TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE CENTRAL FL EAST COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN. ...S COASTAL TX... THICK CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAPPED LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS UPPER LOW SINKS SWD AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE S TX. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 20:05:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 15:05:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511192004.jAJK4IjV010141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192001 SWODY1 SPC AC 191959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SRQ 30 E SRQ 30 NW AGR 30 WSW DAB 25 SW SSI 20 E SAV 40 SE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 50 S ALI 15 S NIR 10 SSW VCT 10 NNE PSX 45 SSE LBX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE SCNTRL US. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING AND MOVE SWD INTO THE SRN STATES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A SUB-SYNOPTIC SFC LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH ELY WINDS REMAINING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE SFC LOW AND SFC HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST A SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE IN THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN FL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT. AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 01:04:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 20:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511200103.jAK13P6A010456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200101 SWODY1 SPC AC 200059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SRQ 30 E SRQ 30 NW AGR 30 WSW DAB 25 SW SSI 20 E SAV 55 ESE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 50 S ALI 15 S NIR 10 SSW VCT 10 NNE PSX 40 SSE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S COASTAL TX... POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NWRN GULF WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER SE TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFF THE TX COAST...GIVEN DEEP LAYER ASCENT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE...WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS AT CRP/BRO SUGGESTING ANY INLAND STORMS WILL BE ROOTED BETWEEN 600-650 MB. ...SRN FL... 18Z GFS APPEARS TO BE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH TPC GUIDANCE FOR T.S GAMMA...AND THE LIMITED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW LOCATED S OF THE FL PENINSULA. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SC COAST SWWD TO THE COAST OF NERN FL. E/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL FL WILL MAINTAIN MOIST ADVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITHIN WAA REGIME. ..PETERS.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 05:52:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 00:52:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511200551.jAK5prEh013960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200549 SWODY1 SPC AC 200547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S 7R4 20 ESE BTR 25 SSE PIB 40 SW DHN 15 SSE MGR 30 SE VDI 30 W CHS 55 S CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED OF POSITIVELY TILTED CENTRAL U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH TODAY AS IT MOVES SWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND THEN BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER/DEEPER WHICH AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO SRN GA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH EACH RUN...THIS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS CLOSER TO THE NAM WHICH TAKES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE NERN GULF OFF THE FL COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CENTRAL GULF CYCLOGENESIS AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SERN U.S./FL WILL SUPPORT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. ...COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL GULF TO SE U.S./FL... GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...BUT GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY OFFSHORE OF SC TO ERN FL ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO NRN FL AND INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AS ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IF THE WARM SECTOR IS ABLE TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...THEN THERE WOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NWRN FL. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS OUTCOME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 12:43:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 07:43:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511201242.jAKCgB3v008643@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201239 SWODY1 SPC AC 201238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE 7R4 20 ESE BTR 25 SSE PIB 25 SW MAI 15 SSE MGR 35 NNW SAV 30 NNW CRE 30 SE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN FL... UPPER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOWER MO VALLEY SWWD TO SWRN TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD. BY LATER TONIGHT MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES THAT TROUGH WILL SWING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD ACROSS SERN STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO ON OLD FRONTAL ZONE THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES WWD FROM CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE GULF. WHILE THE DEEPENING OF THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER 12Z MON...MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER INLAND TO VICINITY OF GA/FL BORDER BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING FRONTAL ZONE NWD ACROSS FL TO NEAR GA BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW A MOIST BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SPREAD NWD AS WELL. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY OF BOTH TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED IN THE WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH AND N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW LATE TONIGHT. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 16:31:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 11:31:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511201630.jAKGU0El020402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201627 SWODY1 SPC AC 201625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW HUM 45 WSW SEM 15 SW ANB 20 W ATL 25 NNW MCN 45 SW AGS 10 ESE AGS 15 E CAE FLO 35 NW ILM 50 SE OAJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NNELY JET STREAK OVER KS IN MORNING RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT UPR LOW NOW OVER SW MO SHOULD AMPLIFY SWD THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO NE LA BY 12Z MONDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN GULF NOW NEAR 26.5N/87.5W EXPECTED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY NE TODAY. THE FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. FARTHER NE...AN ADDITIONAL BUT PROBABLY WEAKER SURFACE CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM ALONG COASTAL TROUGH E OF KCHS/KMYR. ...NRN/WRN FL... BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY/TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM FRONT NOW NEAR LK OKEECHOBEE REDEVELOPS NWWD. THE FRONT SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ERN GULF LOW AND REACH THE BIG BEND AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS SETUP WOULD ALLOW MOIST...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ AIR TO SPREAD N INTO NRN FL AND PERHAPS FAR SRN GA. DEEP SSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OVER THE NERN GULF EARLY MONDAY AS UPR SYSTEM AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SSE INTO LA. ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAY SUPPORT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY INVOF WARM FRONT...AND ALONG ANY EXISTING WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS OVER THE NERN GULF. IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO FORM ...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN THE MEAN TIME...SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY S OF WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND NEAR WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH INTERSECTION ALONG THE E CST. RELATIVELY WARM LAYER NEAR/ABOVE 500 MB MAY DELAY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N FL...ADJACENT PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF CST...AND INTO PARTS OF GA/SC AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPR TROUGH. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 19:50:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 14:50:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511201948.jAKJmsRn028396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201947 SWODY1 SPC AC 201945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW HUM 50 WNW GZH 10 SSW ATL 40 SW SOP 40 ENE HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND FL. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN FL WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS WILL HELP DESTABILIZATION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TALLAHASSEE LATE TONIGHT SHOW STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN NRN FL LATE TONIGHT. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 850 MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL. IF A TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPS...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT PARALLEL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAVE ACCESS TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 00:59:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 19:59:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511210058.jAL0vusa024192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210056 SWODY1 SPC AC 210055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW HUM 50 WNW GZH 10 SSW ATL 40 SW SOP 55 ENE HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS TO ERN TX...WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS SEWD AND BECOMES NEUTRALLY ORIENTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS FORECAST PERIOD DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SERN STATES WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST...NEAR CHS...LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...NRN/WRN FL... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N 87W OR 190 SSW AAF...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AN EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDED SWWD ACROSS NRN FL TO THE SURFACE WAVE OVER THE GULF. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE CENTRAL FL WARM FRONT TO MOVE NWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE NRN FL SURFACE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE FL BIG BEND REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW MAY MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE GA/FL BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH ATTENDANT UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SPREADING INLAND OVER NWRN FL. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NRN FL WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. ...COASTAL SC... SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER COASTAL SERN SC ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60 F... WITH VALUES FARTHER S OVER COASTAL GA/NERN FL INTO THE LOWER 60S. SSELY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT JUST OFF THE SC COAST AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF CHS. IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY AND MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ARE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE SC COAST TOWARD 12Z...THEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS OCCURRENCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR COASTAL SC. ..PETERS.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 05:47:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 00:47:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511210546.jAL5krWw001405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210544 SWODY1 SPC AC 210542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW CTY 20 NNW GNV 30 NNW SSI 25 NNE SAV 20 SE OGB 20 SSW FAY 15 ENE GSB 50 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW BVE 35 NNW GZH 20 SW GSP 30 SW DOV 40 ESE NEL ...CONT... 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC/SC SWD ALONG GA COAST TO FL... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL TRACK EWD TO THE SERN STATES...THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM NWRN FL TO NERN NC BY 22/00Z...AND THEN TO CAPE COD BY END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE SC COAST NEAR CHS AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THIS LOW AND THE NWRN FL LOW CONSOLIDATING INTO A PRIMARY LOW BY THIS EVENING ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST. ...GA COAST NEWD ACROSS ERN SC/NC... AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z THIS MORNING FROM NRN FL NNEWD ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS MAY TEND TO LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH TODAY...BUT CURRENT OUTLOOK THINKING EXPECTS THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND OVER ERN SC/NC. ONE OR TWO SURFACE WAVES WILL LIKELY TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS SURFACE FRONT WITH WARM SECTOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WARM SECTOR MUCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS/SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...GIVEN THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INLAND...AS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS ERN SC/NC. FARTHER S...SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GA COAST AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. PROGGED LOW LCLS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOWS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. ...FL PENINSULA... SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF FL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFFSHORE THE SRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND COMBINED WITH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. THE PRIMARY LINE SHOULD BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 12:58:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 07:58:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511211257.jALCvdGJ011810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211255 SWODY1 SPC AC 211253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW CTY 20 NNW GNV 30 NNW SSI 25 NNE SAV 20 SE OGB 20 SSW FAY 15 ENE GSB 50 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PFN 20 WSW GZH 25 SW SEM 30 ENE ATL 15 SE GSO 10 ESE RIC 35 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... STRONG VORT/UPPER LOW LOWER MS VALLEY 12Z WILL RESPOND TO LARGE SCALE TROUGHING UNDERWAY ERN U.S. AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TO OFF CAROLINA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFF CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS NERN FL INTO ERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OFFSHORE SRN SC COAST AND WILL DEEPEN NEWD ALLOWING A SMALL WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INTO COASTAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE DEEPENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH STRONG MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER NE A BETTER CHANCE OF ROTATING STORMS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE. AGAIN A MOIST BUT ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO PRIMARILY BRIEF WIND DAMAGE. THERE IS A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY COASTAL NC WHERE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 16:41:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 11:41:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511211640.jALGdvaZ027407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211629 SWODY1 SPC AC 211628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PIE 30 ENE SGJ 55 SE SAV 15 NW SAV 15 WSW OGB 30 NNE FLO 15 ENE GSB 50 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM ...CONT... 50 E AAF 30 ENE MAI 25 E TOI 10 S LGC 45 SE CLT 20 NW ORF 35 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS AND FL... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOSED LOW NOW ENTERING MS PHASES WITH STRONG NRN STREAM JET TO MAINTAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SERN SEABOARD TODAY. THE MAIN SURFACE CENTER SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS ITS ACCELERATES NNE TO OFF THE NJ/LONG ISLAND CST TUESDAY MORNING. ...ERN NC... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E/NE ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN FROM SURFACE LOW IN SE GA. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES NE THROUGH A SUBSYNOPTIC LOW NEAR KILM. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NC CSTL PLAIN DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LATTER FEATURE...AND THE MOST RAPID LOW LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION /REF MCD 2451/. RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IN CONFLUENCE BAND EXTENDING SSE FROM THE KILM SURFACE WAVE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC AND ERN PARTS OF THE NC CSTL PLAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN SSWLY...PARALLEL TO WARM FRONT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 70 KTS. COUPLED WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VEERING PRESENT INVOF BOUNDARY /0-1 KM SRH UP TO 400 M2 S2/...SETUP COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NNE TOWARD THE VA BORDER WITH TIME BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MAIN SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES JUST OFF THE NC/VA CST. ...ERN SC/SRN NC... IN WAKE OF PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REGION...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF GA LOW AS THAT SYSTEM ELONGATES NEWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH LOW NOW NEAR KILM. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SHALLOW COOL LAYER. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY...HOWEVER ...POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHEN IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM ACCELERATING UPR TROUGH. ...CNTRL/S FL... VEERED DEEP WIND FIELD S OF DEEPENING SERN STATES LOW WILL LIMIT DEPTH/DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MUCAPE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO INDEED FORM. ..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 20:04:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 15:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511212003.jALK3QMf010502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212001 SWODY1 SPC AC 211959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRE 40 WNW ILM 35 SSW GSB 15 ENE GSB 45 ENE ECG ...CONT... 45 W APF 35 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM ...CONT... 50 S SRQ 25 E OCF 20 S AYS 30 WNW AHN 45 ENE RMG 50 SSE TYS 25 ENE SPA 25 S DAN 30 NNW ORF 35 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL... ...COASTAL NC... COMPLEX/ELONGATED SURFACE LOW -- COMPRISED OF THREE SMALL-SCALE CENTERS ATTM -- CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SRN NC. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/E OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE SLY/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH MOST FAVORABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE...A NARROW WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COAST -- AND PERHAPS EXPAND SLIGHTLY INLAND -- UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NEWD TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE NC COAST -- WHERE A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL... THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS DECIDEDLY VEERED/WSWLY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXES. MOST ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS IS OCCURRING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR JAX TO JUST E OF SRQ ATTM. THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK...DIURNAL HEATING OF FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WOULD SUGGEST THAT A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL PERSISTS. THOUGH MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES...A FEW SMALL/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL END ENTIRELY AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SERN FL COAST THIS EVENING. ..GOSS.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 00:32:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 19:32:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511220031.jAM0VlDh014350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220029 SWODY1 SPC AC 220027 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SSI 25 ESE AHN 10 SW AND 30 W CLT 25 S DAN 10 NE DOV 45 E ACY ...CONT... 40 SE ISP 55 ESE PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL NC... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY/STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NEGATIVELY TILTED NEWD TOWARD NC/VA TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN NC...WILL DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A 980-985 MB LOW OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A SMALL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN A LOW TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNTIL THE SERN NC SURFACE LOW MOVES NE OF THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...STRONG FORCING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ABOVE 700 MB FOR A THREAT OF ELEVATED NON-SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ...SRN FL... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND OFFSHORE OF SRN FL THIS EVENING. GIVEN STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM FL AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER LAND. THUS...SEVERE AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR FL. ..PETERS.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 05:31:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 00:31:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511220529.jAM5TvHB028246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220527 SWODY1 SPC AC 220526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JFK 25 SE EEN 35 NNW AUG 20 ENE CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 23/00Z...AND THEN OVER ERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /200-240 METERS/ SPREAD NWD WITH THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SHOULD BE ENHANCED FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITHIN STRONG WAA REGIME...AS 85-100 KT SSELY LLJ NOSES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODEST ELEVATED CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFFSHORE...WITH SOME THREAT INLAND ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ...SRN CA... A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST. DESPITE RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WITH THE TROUGHS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND ALONG PARTS OF THE SRN CA COAST. GIVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING TO OCCUR INLAND...A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 12:32:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 07:32:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511221231.jAMCVdn0003888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221230 SWODY1 SPC AC 221228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S ISP 15 N ORH 25 NW PWM 20 N HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING STORM BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES JUST OFFSHORE DELMARVA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH WARM SECTOR REMAINING OFFSHORE ONLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION. EXAMINING 12Z BKX SOUNDING REVEALS A SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE LIFTED FROM ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINED WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING STORM...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY N/NNEWD THRU ERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND STRONG UPR VORT TODAY. ..HALES.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 16:43:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 11:43:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511221642.jAMGg2gF018179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221625 SWODY1 SPC AC 221624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JFK EWR 25 NNW POU 25 SE GFL 25 E MPV 65 NE BML 20 E CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE MID MS VLY CONTINUES SE INTO GA... AND DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST LIFTS RAPIDLY NNE. SURFACE LOW WITH ERN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE NNE INTO ERN ME/NEW BRUNSWICK BY TONIGHT. A LAYER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD N ACROSS SRN AND ERN NEW ENGLAND IN ZONE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MID ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND RAPID NNE MOTION OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 20:27:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 15:27:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511222026.jAMKPwUi026040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221951 SWODY1 SPC AC 221949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BID 15 WNW PSM 60 NNW AUG 60 NW CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...FEATURING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THOUGH STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY PRECLUDING ANY THREAT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...ELEVATED NEUTRAL TO MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRIKES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRECIPITATION AREA. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... THREAT FOR A SMALL AMOUNT OF EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AS MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND -- AND ASSOCIATED/SMALL-SCALE VORT MAX -- MOVES NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE NUDGED THUNDER AREA A BIT FURTHER WWD THIS FORECAST ACROSS NRN ME...AS SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS ADJUSTMENT IS FURTHER AUGMENTED BY CURRENT LOCATION OF UPPER VORT MAX AND SURFACE LOW -- BOTH SLIGHTLY W OF NAM FORECASTS ATTM. ..GOSS.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 00:56:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 19:56:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511230055.jAN0tEpj028491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230053 SWODY1 SPC AC 230051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD TO ERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE FURTHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS NRN ME AND THEN NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AND STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERE COLD ADVECTION STABILIZES THE AIR MASS. THUS...THREAT FOR LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MINIMAL TO KEEP A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 05:27:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 00:27:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511230526.jAN5QYa0018898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230524 SWODY1 SPC AC 230522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BUF 15 NE ERI CLE 40 W CLE 40 SSE DTW 45 NE MTC 20 ENE BAX 10 ESE APN 10 SE PLN 10 SE MBL 15 ESE MKG 20 WSW AZO 10 NW SBN 25 WSW BEH 35 ENE MKE 55 NW MBL 45 ENE ESC 45 NE ESC 35 W MQT 30 E IWD 20 NNW IWD 25 S GNA 80 NNE CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... 00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A POLAR VORTEX...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN HUDSON BAY...WILL TRACK SWD ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. VERY COLD AIR MASS /-16 TO -24 C AT 850 MB/ WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPILL SSEWD ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS /LS AT +5 TO 9 C AND LH +8 TO 10 C/ MAINLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING EMBEDDED SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN LES BANDS MAINLY OVER AND IN LEE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR THE WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MUCAPE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. THIS THREAT FOR CG LIGHTNING MAY DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 12:10:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 07:10:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511231209.jANC98P3005037@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231207 SWODY1 SPC AC 231205 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BUF 15 NE ERI CLE 40 W CLE 40 SSE DTW 45 NE MTC 20 ENE BAX 10 ESE APN 10 SE PLN 10 SE MBL 15 ESE MKG 20 WSW AZO 10 NW SBN 25 WSW BEH 35 ENE MKE 55 NW MBL 45 ENE ESC 45 NE ESC 35 W MQT 30 E IWD 20 NNW IWD 25 S GNA 80 NNE CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORTEX NOW OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SSE TO NEAR KSSM BY 12Z THURSDAY AS RIDGE PERSISTS IN THE WEST. ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE VORTEX SHOULD REACH NRN MN BY MIDDAY AND THEN SURGE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS WI/MI LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY. ...UPR GRT LKS... VERY COLD AIR MASS /-16 TO -24 C AT 850 MB/ IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS IT SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE UPR GRT LKS /LK SUPERIOR SURFACE TEMPS +5 TO 8 C...LK MI +6 TO +9 C...LK HURON +7 TO 9 C PER BUOY AND STLT DATA/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MIXED LAYER /UP TO 600 MB/...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT LAKE PLUMES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN LEE OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPS FOR THUNDER SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD TO THE E AND SE SIDES OF LKS HURON AND ERIE BY 12Z THURSDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 16:37:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:37:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511231636.jANGaWir004829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231616 SWODY1 SPC AC 231615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MTC 40 SE BAX 30 ESE OSC 10 S APN 35 W APN 20 W HTL 20 S RQB 15 S GRR 15 W AZO BEH 30 WNW BEH 35 ENE MKE 10 SE MTW 50 NE GRB 15 ENE IMT 45 NW IMT 30 SSE IWD 15 E ASX 25 S GNA 50 ENE GNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 WNW JHW 20 NNW FKL 25 NNW YNG 15 E CLE 30 WSW CLE 45 E TOL 40 SE DTW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY COLD UPPER LOW CHARACTERIZED BY -40 C 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SINK SWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP STRONGLY CONVECTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER MI. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE NATION....CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. ...GREAT LAKES / MICHIGAN... PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAINLY AFTER 00Z...ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND EXTENDING INTO NRN MI LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -25 TO -30 C RANGE...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 35-45 KT MEAN WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1KM. LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM IN THE MID 40S F. GREATEST THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR MARQUETTE SEWD INTO FAR NRN/NWRN MI...AND AFTER 06Z...WHEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AROUND LAKE SHORES. ..JEWELL/HALES.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 05:57:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 00:57:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511240556.jAO5uKXO002578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240552 SWODY1 SPC AC 240550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX 15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO BEH 30 SE RAC 25 E OSH 40 SSW IMT 35 SSW CMX 75 ENE GNA ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 20 E ART 30 NNE SYR 20 W SYR 10 SE ROC 30 SW ROC 30 S BUF 10 SW JHW 25 NNE YNG 25 E CLE 25 WNW CLE 25 S DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW BID 15 NNW PVD 20 W PWM AUG 20 ENE BGR 40 NE EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES AREA... COLD AIR IN THE 1 TO 3 KM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SEWD OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKES IN WAKE OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. ...TX... WARM ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ..DIAL.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 06:02:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 01:02:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511240601.jAO61BG2003861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240559 SWODY1 SPC AC 240557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MSS 20 E ART 30 NNE SYR 20 W SYR 10 SE ROC 30 SW ROC 30 S BUF 10 SW JHW 25 NNE YNG 25 E CLE 25 WNW CLE 25 S DTW ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX 15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO BEH 30 SE RAC 25 E OSH 40 SSW IMT 35 SSW CMX 75 ENE GNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW BID 15 NNW PVD 20 W PWM AUG 20 ENE BGR 40 NE EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER GRAPHIC ...GREAT LAKES AREA... COLD AIR IN THE 1 TO 3 KM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SEWD OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKES IN WAKE OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. ...TX... WARM ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ..DIAL.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 12:56:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 07:56:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511241255.jAOCt3a1027240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241252 SWODY1 SPC AC 241251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX 15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO 15 E BEH 40 SW MKG 30 ESE MTW 50 NE GRB 20 ENE MQT 130 NE MQT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 10 SW SLK 45 W GFL 20 NW ITH 45 NE BFD 25 NW PIT 20 ENE MFD 25 S DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S ISP 10 N PVD 65 SE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORT HAS DROPPED SSE TO NEAR KSSM AND WILL CONTINUE ESE TO LK ONTARIO LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VLY TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E/SE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT. UPR LOW NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND REACH NW MEXICO AS A DEAMPLIFYING WAVE BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...GRT LKS... SCATTERED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN/WRN NY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NW PA/NE OH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER EXPECTED OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS MIXED LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 600 MB AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES IN COLD AIR /MODIFIED MUCAPE AROUND 750 J PER KG/. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE ERN SHORELINES OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS MIXED LAYER WIND BACKS TO W OR WSWLY. DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER AND STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT PLUMES WITH AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. FARTHER W/N...VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTIVE PLUMES AND LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONTINUING UPSTREAM OVER MI/NERN WI. CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION SHOULD ALSO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY LATER IN THE DAY. ...CAPE COD... AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING POLAR VORT MAY YIELD ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF FAR SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. ...SRN AZ... STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING BAJA LOW SHOULD TRACK S OF THE MEXICAN BORDER ACROSS NRN SONORA. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...EXPECT THAT ANY ELEVATED AND/OR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER AZ WILL REMAIN TOO FEEBLE TO PRODUCE THUNDER. ...RED RIVER VLY TX/OK... LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AS BAJA SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD. WARM ADVECTION IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A C-G STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE RED RIVER VLY AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND COMPARATIVE WEAKNESS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 16:47:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 11:47:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511241646.jAOGkKWL000713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241622 SWODY1 SPC AC 241620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 15 SSW BAX 15 NNE MBS 30 WSW MBS AZO 15 E BEH 40 SW MKG 30 ESE MTW 50 NE GRB 20 ENE MQT 130 NE MQT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 10 SW SLK 45 W GFL 20 NW ITH 45 NE BFD 25 NW PIT 20 ENE MFD 25 S DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S ISP 10 N PVD 65 SE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE POLAR VORTEX ROTATING THRU ERN U.S. LARGE SCALE TROUGH. UPPER LOW MOVES FROM CURRENT POSITION OVER LAKE HURON EWD ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM DEEP SURFACE LOW NRN NY SWWD TO ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY. SECONDARY LOW IN PROCESS OF DEVELOPING SERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CENTER AT 16Z VICINITY KBOS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME PRIMARY CENTER TONIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS NERN STATES. THERE WILL BE A NEAR TERM THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS SERN MA IN STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW. HOWEVER BY MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE. ISOLATED THUNDER HAS OCCURRED ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...ERN OH/WRN PA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ABOUT OVER AS CONDITIONS E OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AS POLAR VORTEX TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANY THUNDER SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT AS LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 19:47:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 14:47:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511241946.jAOJkW2O009500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241944 SWODY1 SPC AC 241942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ART 40 NE ART 45 WSW SLK 45 SW SLK 30 NNE UCA 20 NNW UCA 20 N SYR 15 NE ROC 25 NW BUF BUF 20 SSE BUF 25 ENE JHW 15 SSE JHW 25 S ERI 20 N YNG 20 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW BHB 55 SSW BHB 20 S AUG 20 NNW AUG 45 SSE HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER GRTLKS... SURGE OF COLD CP AIR MASS HAS SPREAD INTO THE HUDSON VLY OF NY AND INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MID-AFTN. A BAND OF SNOW/RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED ISOLD LIGHTNING THIS AFTN THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUMES HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THE GRTLKS THIS AFTN. MOST INTENSE BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN BECOME MORE WLY OVERNIGHT...LIKELY FAVORING DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS NEAR/S OF KART...AND FROM EAST OF KCLE ACROSS KERI INTO SWRN NY S OF KBUF. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG AND INVERSION HEIGHTS 11-14 KFT. GIVEN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING WITHIN THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUNDERSNOW WILL BE LIKELY...PRIMARY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO/ERIE. ...COASTAL MAINE... OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL/DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS AFTN. STRONG VORT MAX PIVOTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS BEEN MAXIMIZING UVV ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL BUOYANCY ABOVE H85 OF AROUND 200 J/KG. GIVEN SUCH STRONG UVV...PARCELS ARE BEING LOFTED ABOVE THE -20C RANGE...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING. ..RACY.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 02:40:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 21:40:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511250239.jAP2dFGK031726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250237 SWODY1 SPC AC 250236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0836 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ART 40 NE ART 45 WSW SLK 45 SW SLK 35 NNE UCA 20 NNE UCA 15 NNE SYR 30 ENE ROC 25 NW BUF 15 E BUF 35 SE BUF 35 N BFD 15 SSW JHW 25 SSE ERI 25 N YNG CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA... LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION HAS TRANSITIONED TO A SINGLE DOMINANT BAND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WITH A LOW LEVEL FETCH NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. FARTHER SWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE...MULTIPLE BANDS STILL PERSIST. INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH...AND COLD AIR WITH -30C AT 3 KM WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE WARM LAKES TONIGHT...MAINTAINING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. ..DIAL.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 05:55:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 00:55:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511250554.jAP5sUw2018535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250548 SWODY1 SPC AC 250547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW DRT 20 SW JCT 40 WSW TPL 10 SSW CLL 65 S GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW ELP 20 S CNM 25 N FST 20 ENE BGS 45 SSW LTS 25 ESE CHK MLC 35 SSE TXK 20 NE LCH 80 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW BLI 35 N PDX 30 SE EUG 50 ESE CEC 80 W UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S TX AND S CNTRL TX... ...S AND S CNTRL TX... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SWRN AND S TX THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER. DEWPOINTS OVER THE WRN GULF ARE NOW IN THE LOW 60S...BUT CONTINUED MODIFICATION SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF NWWD THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY INCREASE INLAND OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 12:43:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 07:43:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511251242.jAPCgLo3016709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251239 SWODY1 SPC AC 251238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 35 WNW HDO 20 WSW AUS 10 SSW CLL 15 E GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM 40 WNW RDM 35 ENE SAC 50 SSW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 20 S CNM 30 NNE INK 20 ENE BGS 45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 45 SE MLC 35 SSE TXK 20 NE LCH 45 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN TX... ...SOUTH TX AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST... COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE BY LATER TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT TX COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH BUOY DATA INDICATING SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S EARLY THIS MORNING. AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE/RESPOND TO APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...THIS RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND DEVELOP WNWWD TOWARDS CENTRAL TX BY LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE UPPER TX COAST WWD TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. 09Z RUC AND NAMKF BOTH DEVELOP MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...AS AFTERNOON HEATING OVERCOMES WEAK CAPPING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME MARGINAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG/DEEP ASCENT SPREADS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...REGION WILL BECOME OVERSPREAD BY 110-12O KT H25 WINDS DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION MAY AWAIT LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENTLY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AFTER DARK WHICH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE TX COAST OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEARER THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...PRECEDING ENEWD MOVING MCS...WHERE SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 16:52:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 11:52:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511251651.jAPGp03D013800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251628 SWODY1 SPC AC 251627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 45 SW JCT 55 ENE JCT 10 SSW CLL 30 SE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM 50 WNW RDM 45 NE SAC 50 SE UKI 80 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 25 NNE INK 45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW DEQ 35 ENE TXK 20 NE LCH 55 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS S TX.... ...S TX THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT... AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN...WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID 60 DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST SWD INTO THE EXTREME W CENTRAL GULF. THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF MID MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND APPROACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BRO/CRP SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WHEN MODIFIED FOR SURFACE HEATING AND GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...WHILE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UPSTREAM OVER NRN MEXICO. THE DESTABILIZATION OVER S TX...COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM W TO E THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT INVOF THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD OVERNIGHT AS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE RESIDUAL COASTAL FRONT/TROUGH OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 20:04:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 15:04:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511252003.jAPK34Su021679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252000 SWODY1 SPC AC 251958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 45 SW JCT 55 ENE JCT 10 SSW CLL 30 SE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM 50 WNW RDM 45 NE SAC 50 SE UKI 80 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 25 NNE INK 45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW DEQ 35 ENE TXK 20 NE LCH 55 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND S TX... ...CNTRL/S TX... UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NWRN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE MAKING A TURN TO THE EAST AS ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS...AND SHOULD TRANSLATE TOWARDS CNTRL/S TX TONIGHT. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND PARTS OF TX AS UPPER FLOW REGIME BECOMES DIFFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE IMPULSE. A FEW SHALLOW SURFACE BASED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN PRESENT ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST VCNTY A WARM FRONT. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/S TX WAS CAPPED AT MID-AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWWD ACROSS CNTRL/S TX THROUGH TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT HEATING...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NERN MEXICO LATE THIS AFTN...THEN IN THE RIO GRANDE VLY BY EARLY/MID-EVENING. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SWRN TX LATER IN THE EVENING...ULTIMATELY EVOLVING INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER CNTRL/S TX. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH STORM MODE SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS...BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS S TX/COASTAL PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER...MORE DISCRETE STORMS. ..RACY.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 00:51:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 19:51:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511260049.jAQ0nnAe001785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260047 SWODY1 SPC AC 260046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 30 WSW JCT 55 NW AUS CLL 35 SSE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 45 S MAF 55 NW ABI 30 WSW ADM 10 E PRX 10 NNE SHV 30 SSW POE 60 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 50 SSE SEA 45 SE EUG 30 SW LKV 10 NNE OWY 50 SSE EKO 25 ESE TPH 60 S TVL 35 SSW UKI 80 SW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S THROUGH S CNTRL TX... ...S THROUGH S CNTRL TX... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE WRN GULF...AND THIS PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWWD THROUGH S TX OVERNIGHT. THE ADVECTION OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING NEWD OUT OF MEXICO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH S TX OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS S TX LATER TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING NEWD OUT OF MEXICO SHOULD CONDITION THE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO ANTICIPATED MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH TIME AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH S TX TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 05:59:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 00:59:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511260557.jAQ5vugU007526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260555 SWODY1 SPC AC 260554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 50 E BAZ 35 NNW CLL 30 SW SHV 30 NW HEZ 40 ESE MCB 50 SE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW OGD 20 WNW BPI 45 SE LND 35 E FCL 40 SW ITR 30 NNW CAO 45 N LVS 45 NW 4SL 20 ESE U17 20 NNW U24 35 NW OGD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW LRD 45 ENE JCT 25 WNW CQB 40 NNE MHK 40 NW DSM 25 SW RFD 30 NNE LAF 45 NNE SDF 45 SE BNA 25 SSE BHM 75 WSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SERN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY ACROSS SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR INTO SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S LIKELY. PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE RETURN. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF S TX BY 12Z SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP AS THE MCS CONTINUES EWD. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MORE OR LESS LINEAR MCS. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT ALSO APPEARS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. ..DIAL.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 13:02:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 08:02:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511261301.jAQD1N8c006191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261257 SWODY1 SPC AC 261255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW PSX 40 ESE BAZ 35 WSW CLL 45 NNW JAN 30 SSE MEI 50 ENE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM 35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 30 S BWD 45 NNW FTW 30 SW TUL 30 SW OJC TOP 15 WSW BIE 45 WSW LNK 20 NNE TQE 30 ESE FRM 20 W RST 35 E VOK 20 SE OSH 15 E BEH 45 NE LAF 30 ENE EVV 30 NNW HSV 20 SSE 0A8 15 SSE CEW 40 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN/CENTRAL TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SERN TX INTO SRN LA... MESSY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL/SERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING 30-40 KT SLY H85 FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF LA BY LATER TODAY WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ SHIFTING INTO MS AFTER DARK. THUS... LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVALENT INTO SRN LA EWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS HAVE REMAINED CAPPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND RESULTANT INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS REMAINED WEAK/ELEVATED. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND VWPS FROM THE REGION INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT. THEREFORE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH TAIL END OF MCS NOW MOVING INTO SERN TX AS IT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...SYSTEM MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH RESULTING SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF MS WHERE MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COLD MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM /H5 TEMPS AOB -14C/ SUGGESTS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE FROM CENTRAL TX AND SPREAD INTO ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY UNDER POCKET OF -16C TO -18C MID LEVEL TEMPS SAMPLED AT DRT THIS MORNING. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 16:50:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 11:50:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511261648.jAQGmY3Y008696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261631 SWODY1 SPC AC 261630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LBX 25 W BPT 40 SSW HEZ 35 ESE MCB 60 SSE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM 35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW LRD 30 S BWD 50 NNE MWL 20 W TUL 30 E EMP 20 ENE CNK 35 ESE HSI 30 SSW OLU 20 N SLB 30 WNW RST 30 SSE CWA 15 E MTW 10 N AZO 15 SSW FWA 30 ENE EVV 50 SW BNA 0A8 40 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A BROAD/DEEP SURFACE LOW EXPECTED IN KS BY LATE TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS TX/LA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODULATED/DELAYED SOMEWHAT BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST. ...UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA THROUGH LATE EVENING... A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AND SE TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING SRN STREAM WAVE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST...THOUGH TRENDS IN SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 70 F WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. WSR-88D/S FROM GLS AND LCH BOTH REVEAL A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ABOUT 40 N MI S OF GLS-SABINE PASS...NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING /REFER TO MCD 2467 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS/. W OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS S TX THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 19:56:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 14:56:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511261955.jAQJtXl3003984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261953 SWODY1 SPC AC 261951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S LCH 25 NNW LCH 20 SW HEZ 35 ESE MCB 60 SSE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE U28 35 ENE RKS 20 SW LAR 25 E 4FC 45 E DRO 20 SSW CEZ 15 E 4BL 15 ENE U28. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM 35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S PSX 25 SW LBX 30 ENE HOU 20 SE LFK 10 S GGG 25 E DUA 10 SE ADM 20 W TUL 30 E EMP 20 ENE CNK 35 ESE HSI 30 SSW OLU 20 N SLB 30 WNW RST 30 SSE CWA 15 E MTW 10 N AZO 15 SSW FWA 30 ENE EVV 50 SW BNA 0A8 40 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA AND EXTREME SWRN MS... ...LWR MS VLY... MCS HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTN...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WCNTRL LA. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED SWD THROUGH SWRN LA AND INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AT MID-AFTN. ADDITIONAL...MORE DISCRETE CELLS...WERE FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE SEGMENT...MAINLY OFFSHORE...BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE EWD-MOVING LINE. THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD TONIGHT TOWARD THE TN VLY...WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ SHIFTING NWD WITH TIME. TSTM WILL TEND TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS LA AND INTO MS OVERNIGHT IN THE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THE WARM FRONT...NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE LA COAST...SHOULD MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING...AT LEAST TO THE I-10/I-12 CORRIDOR...AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE LWR MS VLY. CONSEQUENTLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHARACTER WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS/BOWS GIVEN THE 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SRN LA AHEAD OF THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BUT THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUBSIDE AS STRONGEST ASCENT PASSES FARTHER N WITH TIME. DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA. TSTMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE ELEVATED AT FARTHER N LATITUDES IN LA/MS...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS /ISOLD SEVERE/ WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN. ..RACY.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 00:51:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 19:51:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511270050.jAR0oN9J002756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270048 SWODY1 SPC AC 270047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ONM 45 S GNT 15 ENE GUP 10 SSE FMN 25 ENE DRO 20 WSW ALS 40 W RTN 25 NE LVS 50 S LVS 30 NW 4CR 25 WNW ONM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LBX 30 WSW BPT 50 NNW BPT 35 E LFK 30 SE GGG 45 SE PRX 15 S MLC 35 WSW MKO 30 ENE BVO 45 NE CNU 40 N STJ 20 SW FOD 25 WSW RST 35 NNE LSE 20 S MTW 10 NW JXN FDY 15 ENE DAY 40 NNE SDF 25 SE CKV 30 S MSL 25 SW SEM 45 WSW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N UIL 30 NE AST 25 NNW SLE EUG 30 E OTH 30 N 4BK 30 W CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. AN MCS IS LOCATED IN LA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF LA. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F EXIST OVER SRN LA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE MCS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MS INTO SRN AL. 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SERN LA WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 50 KT AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 3 KM. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE MARGINALLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL. THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS MOVES EWD OFF THE SERN LA COAST BY 03Z TO 04Z. ..BROYLES.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 06:03:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 01:03:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511270602.jAR62JkZ011772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270559 SWODY1 SPC AC 270558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PBF 25 W HOT 35 WNW HOT 20 NE FSM 10 ESE JLN 35 SW OJC 15 W MKC 35 NE MKC 45 NW COU 20 NNE VIH 45 WNW POF 25 W JBR 50 ENE LIT 35 WNW PBF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLS 50 NNW BPT 15 WSW SHV 20 NNW DEQ 35 W GMJ 45 WSW CNU 15 SW ICT 30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 40 NNW DNV 20 SE PAH 20 SE UOX 60 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 20 NNW HOU 15 NW GGG 30 NNE PRX 25 N MLC 25 NNE CQB END 40 WSW END 20 N CSM 40 WNW CSM 25 WSW GAG 15 NW DDC 45 WSW EAR 40 S MHE 40 NW RWF 25 S DLH 20 N CMX TVC 30 SW LAN 30 NE IND 50 WSW BNA MGR AYS 25 NW CHS 45 NE CAE 20 NNW RDU 40 E EWN 65 S HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR...MO AND FAR ERN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU/UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ORGANIZE AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS TODAY. AS THE UPPER-LOW CLOSES-OFF AND THE SYSTEM DEEPENS...STRONG AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE IN CNTRL KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM COMES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY INITIATE AND EXPAND SSEWD ACROSS ERN KS...WRN MO AND WRN AR. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH BRINGING AN IMPRESSIVE 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET THROUGH WEST TX INTO ERN OK DURING THE DAY. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD STRONG DIFFLUENCE ACROSS ERN KS...WRN MO AND WRN AR RESULTING IN RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST SFC DEWPOINTS OVER SW MO AND AR WHERE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM ACROSS SW MO AND WRN AR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAST STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 70 KT 850 MB JET SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES EWD ACROSS MO AND AR DURING THE EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST FARTHER NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NE KS AND NRN MO WHERE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ENELY NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY AREA. IF MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE TORNADO THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS REGION. DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL-LINE WITH MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS...MOVES ENEWD INTO IA...IL...WRN TN...NW MS AND NE LA. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 13:03:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 08:03:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511271302.jARD2TuD027885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271300 SWODY1 SPC AC 271258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ELD 25 ESE TXK 30 ENE DEQ 20 NE FSM 15 SSW JLN 15 SE EMP 20 WNW TOP 10 WNW FLV 40 WNW COU 20 NNE VIH 40 NNW POF JBR 55 ENE PBF 20 E ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT UTS 45 WNW LFK 20 NNE PRX 25 S TUL 35 NE PNC 30 SSW ICT 30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 30 WNW LAF 25 NNE HOP 20 SSW CBM 35 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRP 40 SE CLL 25 WNW TYR 25 WNW PRX 30 WNW MLC 25 NNE CQB 15 SSE END 40 WSW END 20 N CSM 40 WNW CSM 40 NE BGD 10 NNE GCK 45 WSW EAR 40 S MHE 40 NW RWF 25 S DLH 20 N CMX 25 E TVC 20 N FDY 30 NE IND 15 N 0A8 15 ESE ABY 40 SW CTY ...CONT... 55 ENE SSI OGB 35 WNW FLO 20 NE SOP 25 NW EWN 50 SSW HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS... OVERNIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN OVERALL STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS KS TODAY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES ESEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN OK/NERN TX INTO CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. A VERY STRONG SLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVER MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WITH 50+ KT H85 JET AXIS FROM WRN LA INTO CENTRAL MO BY LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY EXTREME WINDS ALOFT /120+ KT AT H25 AND 75+ KT AT H5/. APPEARS INSTABILITY AND STRONG CAP EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HINDER SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER... ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAKENING CAP ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...DESPITE SBCAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND RACE NEWD ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO/FAR SERN NEB. MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR 21Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS/WRN MO INTO ERN OK/WRN AR AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH VALUES OF BOUNDARY LAYER RH. LARGE HODOGRAPHS /0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 / SUGGEST SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT STORM-SCALE EVOLUTION/MODE AS STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF FAST MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INTO MO WHERE COMPONENT OF STEERING FLOW NORMAL TO THE FRONT WILL BE SMALLER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO FAST MOVING LEWPS/BOW ECHOES... FURTHER ENHANCING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT. BY THE EARLY/MID EVENING...SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE WELL DEVELOPED FROM SRN IA INTO SERN TX/LA WITHIN DEEP CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG WRN EDGE OF LLJ. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THREATS OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT...AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. ..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 16:55:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 11:55:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511271653.jARGrXD3026558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271636 SWODY1 SPC AC 271634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ELD 35 SE TXK 10 N DEQ 10 NNW FSM 15 SSW JLN 20 WNW EMP 10 E MHK 10 NNW FLV 40 WNW COU 20 NNE VIH 40 NNW POF 10 WSW JBR 55 ENE PBF 30 E ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT 25 NW UTS 25 WNW PRX 30 ESE CQB 30 NNE CQB PNC 20 E P28 30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 25 NNE DNV 20 NNE HOP 20 SSW CBM 65 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE SSI OGB 35 NW FLO 10 WNW FAY 15 W OAJ 75 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRP 30 SE CLL 15 NNE CRS GYI 40 SE OKC 25 N OKC 40 SW END 25 N CSM 40 WNW CSM 50 W GAG 25 N GCK 20 E LBF 15 WNW MHE 15 SSW VVV 25 S DLH 20 N CMX 25 E TVC JXN 25 S MIE 15 WSW BWG 15 E TCL 40 WNW ABY 30 SW VLD 40 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN AND WRN MO...AND ERN KS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM E TX/LA NWD TO IA/IL.... ...SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 115 KT 500 MB JET OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SW KS EVOLVES INTO A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW INVOF NW MO BY LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG A TRAILING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. ...E TX/LA NWD ACROSS ERN OK/KS...AR...AND MO... A WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. THE LINGERING IMPACTS OF A LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ALONG THE NW GULF COAST YESTERDAY...AND VEERED L0W-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...HAVE DELAYED NWD MOISTURE RETURN TO TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 65-68 F DEWPOINTS IS CONFINED TO SE TX/SW LA AS OF MID MORNING...THOUGH THIS MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING 50-60 KT LLJ. STILL...LOW CLOUDS ON THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY FROM THE ARKLATEX NWD. THE NET RESULT WILL BE SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE IN KS/MO BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...TO 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF THE ARKLATEX WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65-80 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2. A COMPARISON OF MID-UPPER FLOW/SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATIONS WITH A N-S DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK...ARCING BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SE KS...SUGGESTS THAT BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A SOMEWHAT BROKEN SQUALL LINE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT ON THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NWD FROM E TX. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE STORM ELEMENTS...A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 20:05:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 15:05:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511272004.jARK47VM026716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272001 SWODY1 SPC AC 271959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ELD 35 SE TXK 10 N DEQ 10 NNW FSM 15 SSW JLN 20 WNW EMP 10 E MHK 10 NNW FLV 40 WNW COU 20 NNE VIH 40 NNW POF 10 WSW JBR 55 ENE PBF 30 E ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT 25 NW UTS 40 N PRX 25 WSW MKO 10 S TUL PNC 20 E P28 30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 25 NNE DNV 20 NNE HOP 20 SSW CBM 65 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE SSI OGB 35 NW FLO 10 WNW FAY 15 W OAJ 75 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRP 30 SE CLL 15 NNE CRS 35 SSW MLC 25 SSE CQB 35 ESE END 25 W END 35 SW AVK 20 NNE GAG 40 SSW DDC 25 N GCK 20 E LBF 15 WNW MHE 15 SSW VVV 25 S DLH 20 N CMX 25 E TVC JXN 25 S MIE 15 WSW BWG 15 E TCL 40 WNW ABY 30 SW VLD 40 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SRN AND WRN MO...AND ERN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX/LA NWD TO IA/IL... ...E TX/LA NWD ACROSS ERN OK/KS...AR...AND MO... RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS COMMENCED EARLY THIS AFTN WITH A 984MB CENTER OVER CNTRL KS. THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD AND AT MID-AFTN EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN OK TO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX. A COLD FRONT WAS ACCELERATING ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE TX S PLAINS. A PERSISTENT WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS MOVED INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD SERN NEB/NWRN MO/NERN KS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO TURN NEWD...THEN ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE CORN BELT BY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE...AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. TWO PRIMARY REGIONS OF SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS IMMINENT...ONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE OTHER FARTHER S ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE VERY PERSISTENT WRF-4KM GUIDANCE FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. 1. CNTRL PLAINS: TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED VCNTY/NE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE AND ALONG THE NOSE OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK AT MID-AFTN. NEODESHA...LAMONT AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS INDICATE THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF 40-45 KT VERTICAL SHEAR AND ISOLD CELLS HAVE SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE DRYLINE...ARCING NWWD INTO THE SURFACE LOW...2-6KM MEAN WIND VECTORS REMAIN SOMEWHAT NORMAL TO THE BOUNDARY. THUS...AS THE TSTMS INTENSIFY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO...POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WILL EXIST. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES HAVE BACKED OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER CNTRL KS...AND ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT AND MAY JOIN WITH NRN-EXTENT OF TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY. DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL MAY OCCUR AS FAR E AS IL AND SRN IA LATER TONIGHT. 2. SRN MO...AR...ERN TX...LA: LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DRYING OCCURRING RAPIDLY JUST BEHIND THE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-AFTN. PRESENCE OF INCREASED PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THAT THE UPSTREAM W TX MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE AFFECTING THE REGION. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOWER 60S DEW POINTS NOSE NWD INTO THE AR/SRN MO...WEAKENING CINH OBSERVED ON THE 18Z LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING. EXPECT TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SWRN AR INTO EXTREME NERN TX AND ALONG THE MAIN DRYLINE ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTN. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY AND GIVEN CROSS-BOUNDARY MEAN FLOW VECTORS...DISCRETE CELLS WILL EXIST. SOME OF THESE CELLS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS /A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE/. OTHERWISE...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS...WITH ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY JOIN TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MO LATER TONIGHT...REACHING PARTS OF WRN TN...WRN MS AND CNTRL LA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL CONTINUING. ..RACY.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 01:04:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 20:04:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511280103.jAS132rs000989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280100 SWODY1 SPC AC 280059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ELD 30 S HOT HOT 35 W BVX 30 WNW UNO 10 SE TBN 40 SSE VIH 40 SW FAM 15 ENE ARG 50 WSW MEM 25 W LLQ 30 N ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT 25 NW UTS 25 WSW TYR 15 E RKR 20 SSE FYV 20 WSW UMN 30 SSW TOP 25 ESE BIE 15 WNW OMA 25 SE SLB 30 SE MCW 40 NE ALO 20 NE DBQ 35 NW MMO CMI 25 W EVV 45 SE MKL 35 WNW PIB 65 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CHS 20 S CHS 40 ENE OGB 25 N FLO 15 ENE SOP GSB EWN 60 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX VCT 15 SSW AUS 20 WSW TPL 30 NNW CRS 30 SE MLC 30 ESE MKO 30 SSW GMJ 35 S EMP 25 N SLN 25 SSE HSI 25 SE ONL 15 WNW BKX 25 SE BRD 30 NE IWD 45 NNE ESC 15 ENE TVC 30 NW LAN 10 NNE FWA 30 ENE BWG 25 SE HSV 35 SW ANB 30 NE DHN 20 N TLH 45 WSW CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY... ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK UNDERWAY ACROSS MO AND AR WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 3 TO 4 MORE HOURS AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THE EXIT REGION OF A 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WITH THE JET SPLITTING DUE TO VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS VERY STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN VERY INTENSE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS...BOW ECHOES AND SEVERE MULTICELLS LIKELY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE MO-AR STATE-LINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 750 TO 1000 J/KG. CONSIDERING THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS ERN AR AND SERN MO THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OVER 70 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MO...A SECONDARY LINE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THIS REGION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LOW. IN ADDITION...BACKED SFC WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 300 TO 500 M2/S2 AS SUGGESTED BY 88D VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO CONTINUE AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL IA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE TWO LINES MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE MS RIVER BASIN BY MIDNIGHT...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER TIME. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS IL...WRN TN AND WRN MS. ..BROYLES.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 06:01:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 01:01:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511280600.jAS60L40002296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280557 SWODY1 SPC AC 280555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW TOI 20 W SEM 15 SSW TCL 35 S MSL 35 NNE HSV 10 W CHA 30 ESE CHA 25 NNE ATL 35 ENE CSG 30 SSE CSG 25 N DHN 15 SSE TOI 35 WSW TOI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW HUM 35 NE MCB 40 ESE GWO 40 N TUP 35 W HOP 35 SW HUF 20 SSE VPZ 20 SSW AZO 20 WSW ARB 45 SSE DTW 10 E ZZV 50 SSW BLF 45 WNW CAE 30 NNW AYS 40 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 ENE GLH 35 SW PAH 15 SE PIA 35 SE DBQ 35 ESE RHI ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ROC 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC 20 ENE GSB 45 SSW HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS... A POWERFUL UPPER-LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SYSTEM...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM FAR ERN IL EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN KY INTO WCNTRL TN AND WCNTRL MS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. INITIALLY THE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REGENERATION OR REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM FORECAST INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL AL BY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 60 KT WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE LINE OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE TN EXTENDING SWD ACROSS AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER CNTRL AND ERN AL INTO WRN GA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE COMBINATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA SUGGESTING TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. A FEW STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER MI SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..BROYLES/SCHNEIDER.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 12:41:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 07:41:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511281239.jASCdk5A012193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281237 SWODY1 SPC AC 281235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AUO 10 NNW GZH 60 SE MEI 25 NE MEI 10 S CBM 15 WSW MSL 30 NNW HSV 20 SSW CHA 15 W ATL 25 SSW AUO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 15 WSW TUP 40 WNW HOP 15 SSE DNV 20 S SBN 25 SSE JXN 50 WNW CLE 10 NNE ZZV 25 WNW CRW 20 NNW AVL 50 NE MGR 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE VRB 35 WSW APF ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 15 NNE GWO 35 SW PAH 20 SSW PIA 15 NE ALO 40 W AUW 50 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 60 WNW MSS 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC GSB 25 SE ILM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AL AND A SMALL PART OF WRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO CENTRAL MS EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO/AR/LA. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS EXTREME MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST INTO THE TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 50S F. THEREFORE...GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND STRENGTH OF FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY... CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL MS WITH ONGOING NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION...WHILE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER S-CENTRAL LA. ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL. EXPECT STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/DIMINISHED THROUGH THE MID MORNING GIVEN MODEST CAP PRESENT ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE...SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AND DEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING. EXTREME SHEAR IN PLACE SUPPORTS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ONCE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO ROOT INTO 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE O-1 KM SRH WILL EXCEED 350 M2/S2 OVER A LARGE AREA. SMALL LEWPS AND BOW ECHOES MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THOUGH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH STRONGER CELLS OVERNIGHT. ...IND/OH INTO KY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... WITH INCREASED HEATING THIS MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE/DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO IND/WRN KY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXTREME WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED AS STORMS ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE. DESPITE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THIS REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 17:07:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 12:07:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511281706.jASH6HqD010305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281620 SWODY1 SPC AC 281618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AUO 10 NNW GZH 50 SSE MEI 25 NE MEI 10 S CBM 15 WSW MSL 45 N HSV 10 NNE CHA 15 W ATL 25 SSW AUO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE HUM 20 S TUP 20 NW HOP 35 WNW IND 30 SSE SBN 35 SW JXN 50 WNW CLE 10 NNE ZZV 25 WNW CRW 20 NNW AVL 50 NE MGR 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE ROC 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC GSB 35 SE ILM ...CONT... 60 SSW HUM 40 NE JAN 15 NNW PAH 15 S DEC 30 E MLI 25 NNW ALO 40 W EAU 75 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE VRB 35 WSW APF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF AL PARTS OF MID TN AND NWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NWD TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS IA TODAY REACHING INTO NRN WI BY TUE AM. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY WILL SHIFT N AND E THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR. PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE CURRENTLY FROM WRN IND SSWWD INTO ERN MS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE IA SURFACE LOW SWD VICINITY STL AND THEN TO SRN LA. ...AL INTO MID TN AND WRN GA... WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/K SRN AL... AS SURFACE HEATING PUSHES THE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S AT 15Z WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE MID/UPPER 60S. GIVEN THE SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT AND HELICITIES FROM 400-500 M2/S2 AS NOTED ON THE BMX VAD WINDS AND LITTLE REMAINING CIN...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INSTABILITY LINE. POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS WARM SECTOR IN AL INTO WRN GA AND MIDDLE TN. ADDITIONALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD FAVOR BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THESE STORMS AND GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. ...OH VALLEY... ALTHOUGH LESS INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS OH VALLEY...THE VERY STRONG SHEAR COUPLED WITH MUCAPES UPWARD TO 500 J/KG MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL REQUIRE THE STRONG QG FORCING UNDER THE INTENSE UPPER JET TO PROMOTE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY MODE WILL BE LINEAR WITH BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH BOW VORTICES. BY EVENING AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY SWD INTO ERN AL/GA WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..HALES/GUYER.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 20:01:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 15:01:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511282000.jASK0LFn003060@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281957 SWODY1 SPC AC 281955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AUO 20 NNW TOI 15 SSW SEM 25 SSW 0A8 TCL 10 WSW HSV 45 N HSV 10 NNE CHA 15 W ATL 25 SSW AUO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE MOB 45 NNE MOB 15 SW TCL 15 NNE BNA 45 ESE BMG 55 S SBN 30 ESE SBN 35 SW JXN 50 WNW CLE 10 NNE ZZV 25 WNW CRW 20 NNW AVL 50 NE MGR 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW BVE 25 E MEI 35 NE OWB 20 WSW LAF 30 E MLI 25 NNW ALO 40 W EAU 75 NNE CMX ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC GSB 35 SE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE VRB 35 WSW APF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AL INTO SRN TN/NWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE FL PANHANDLE...NWD INTO IND/OH... ...CENTRAL GULF STATES/OH VALLEY... PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NERN AL/NRN GA HAVE SLOWED NWD RETURN OF MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE NRN GULF STATES. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IS ADVECTING WEST-NORTH BEHIND THIS BUBBLE OF STABLE AIR...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NCNTRL AL. SFC WIND SHIFT APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR AIDING MORE LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SWD INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG SRN END OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED SUNSHINE/HEATING SHOULD AID FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS DISTINCT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY...MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEEM TO BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION. EVEN SO...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING DATA INTO KY/SERN IND. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IF BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES CAN MATERIALIZE. ..DARROW.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 00:47:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 19:47:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511290045.jAT0jdPG032551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290043 SWODY1 SPC AC 290042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 30 WSW SEM 20 SSE BHM 25 SW CHA 35 ESE CHA 35 NW AHN 40 SSE AHN 30 NW AYS 40 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE BVE 55 ESE MEI BHM 50 ESE BWG 10 NNW LEX 35 WSW UNI 30 NNE CRW 30 SW SHD 15 SSW AVC 40 SSE ILM ...CONT... 30 N PBI APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE APN 15 W OSC 20 NNE LAN 30 SSE AZO 20 E BEH 20 NE MKG 40 NNW TVC 95 NNE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS AL/GA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE COLD FRONT IN EAST CENTRAL AL SEWD INTO THE NRN FL PANHANDLE...WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS MOSTLY LINEAR... DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60-70 KT. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN AL AND NRN GA...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. ...OH VALLEY... WIDESPREAD BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT EWD THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE...RESULTING IN INSUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THE THUNDER AND SEVERE THREAT IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. ..IMY.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 05:46:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 00:46:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511290544.jAT5ixEV019923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290529 SWODY1 SPC AC 290527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SGJ VDI 30 WSW AGS 35 ENE HKY ROA 20 NNW SHD 30 SSW MRB 35 SSE MRB 15 SW DCA RIC 30 ENE RZZ 20 NE EWN 70 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ART SYR POU 15 SSW GON 50 SSW BID ...CONT... 70 SSW PFN MAI 65 NW AHN ZZV 30 NE CLE 60 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM OLM PDX 40 E OTH 55 WNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE EJECTED NEWD INTO ONTARIO...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWD INTO AL/GA TO SWEEP EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...VA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SRN END OF THE ONTARIO LOW WILL SWEEP NEWD ACROSS WRN VA/NC LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE LINE. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...CLOUDY SKIES AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG AND MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWS WITHIN THE LINE WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST KM MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THE WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE AND MORE ISOLATED THAN ON MONDAY. ..IMY.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 13:01:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 08:01:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511291259.jATCxpjs004161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291257 SWODY1 SPC AC 291256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SSI 30 NNW AYS 20 NE AND 40 S PSK 15 WNW HGR 40 SE CXY 10 SW NHK 45 SE ECG 25 NE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ART 25 SSE SYR 20 ESE POU 15 SSW GON 50 SSW BID ...CONT... 40 SSE AAF 20 SW MGR 25 WSW AND 50 W BKW 35 SSE CAK 55 NNW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CLM 10 SSE OLM 20 NNW PDX EUG 25 NNE OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM DELMARVA INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA... ...CENTRAL NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA... DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE FL BIG BEND REGION. THIS RAISES SOME QUESTION REGARDING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD AND MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH MID 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM FL/SERN GA NWD INTO CENTRAL NC...MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL NY. IN ADDITION...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS ALL THE AFFECTED REGION. THE AXIS OF MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD LIFT GRADUALLY NWD AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT REGION/ERN NC THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE MITIGATED BY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...GRADUAL SURFACE WARMING INTO THE 70S WILL GENERATE MARGINAL TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. LESSER HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING AT CHS INDICATES SBCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 75F...WITH 70F TEMPERATURE AT GSO YIELDING SIMILAR SBCAPE. IN ADDITION...EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEARER THE APPALACHIANS...WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AT GSO THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEARING 70F FROM CENTRAL SC INTO SWRN VA...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID MORNING. THREAT SHOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS PA AND NY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL LESSEN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE SPREADS EAST OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND MOVES ACROSS SERN GA/SC LATER THIS MORNING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ONCE HEATING ALLOWS STORMS TO ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY INTO THE CAROLINAS/CENTRAL VA. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 17:02:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 12:02:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511291700.jATH0nRo002989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291631 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE SAV 45 SE AGS 35 WSW CAE 20 NE HKY 15 ENE SSU 35 SSW AOO 35 SSW CXY 25 E RIC 10 NW ECG 35 S HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE AAF 20 SW ABY 25 WSW AND 50 W BKW 35 SSE CAK 55 NNW ERI ...CONT... 25 WNW ART 35 SW SLK 15 SSE ALB 30 NE BDR 40 SSW BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CLM 10 SSE OLM 20 NNW PDX EUG 25 NNE OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO CENTRAL VA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AS THE DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER WI MOVES NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND WEAKENS...AND A SEPARATE SPEED MAX OVER MS/AL LIFTS NEWD TO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. A SEPARATE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL DRIFT SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL TODAY. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW TOWARD THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...CAROLINAS TO INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN TWO BANDS THIS MORNING - ONE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM UPSTATE SC TO WRN VA...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE MOISTURE/LLJ AXIS FROM THE GRAND STRAND NWD INTO ERN NC. BETWEEN THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS...A NARROW WARM SECTOR EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS SC TO SW VA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MOIST PROFILES...AND RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS IT SPREADS NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL VA TODAY. HOWEVER...40-50 KT SLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY DEVELOPS IN AREAS WITH CLOUD BREAKS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 19:49:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 14:49:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511291948.jATJm4gA013812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291946 SWODY1 SPC AC 291944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CRE 15 NE FLO 35 SE CLT 40 WSW GSO 30 E SSU 35 SSW AOO 35 SSW CXY 25 E RIC 10 NW ECG 35 S HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ART 35 SW SLK 15 SSE ALB 30 NE BDR 40 SSW BID ...CONT... 55 ESE CHS 25 SSW FLO 45 SSW CLT 15 WSW BLF 20 W MGW 25 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW APF 40 ENE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BLI 35 SSE SEA 10 ENE SLE 25 NNE OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...MID ATLANTIC... LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS BACK EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT BROAD SUBSIDENCE LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DOWNSTREAM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPEDIMENT TO ROBUST ACTIVITY IS THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. EVEN SO...EMBEDDED STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NC INTO INTERIOR VA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE...OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN AN END TO ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 00:40:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 19:40:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511300039.jAU0dCB5003808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300036 SWODY1 SPC AC 300035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ILM 30 SE FAY 25 WNW GSB 30 SSW AVC 30 N AVC 35 E CHO 15 NE HGR 25 NNW CXY 15 W ABE 15 WSW TTN 25 NNE SBY 35 ENE ORF 30 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S CRE 15 W CRE 25 NNE FAY 40 SSE CHO 15 N HGR 25 ESE ELM 35 NE BGM 40 WSW ALB 25 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BLI 20 SSW SEA 10 SW SLE 35 NE OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA... ...NERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... SQUALL LINE FROM SERN PA THROUGH CNTRL VA AND E CNTRL NC CONTINUES EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...AND THIS REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT. NEVERTHELESS... STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 05:44:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 00:44:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511300543.jAU5h3nt023844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300540 SWODY1 SPC AC 300538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JFK 20 WSW BDL 25 NNE EEN 10 WNW PWM 65 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND AREA... PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. BY AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK MID LEVEL COOLING ATTENDING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...MAINLY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..DIAL.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 12:49:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 07:49:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511301247.jAUClbHD030621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301245 SWODY1 SPC AC 301243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ISP 10 SSW ORH 15 SSW PSM 50 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OKX INDICATES SMALL POSITIVE AREA / MUCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG / LIFTING A PARCEL AT H85. THEREFORE...SPORADIC/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY DEEP MOIST PLUME AS IT SPREADS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 16:18:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 11:18:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511301617.jAUGHA3w031472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301610 SWODY1 SPC AC 301608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ISP 20 NNW PVD 15 SSW PSM 50 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK WITH ONLY A SKINNY ELEVATED POSITIVE AREA NOTED ON THE NEW YORK CITY 12Z SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING...DEEPER CONVECTION OFFSHORE MOVING TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRIKES. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EWD LATER TODAY WITH THE THUNDER THREAT ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 19:29:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 14:29:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511301927.jAUJRXeR030228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301925 SWODY1 SPC AC 301924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST DEEPER CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED ROUGHLY 100MI OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...AND WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM RISK. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 20:52:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 15:52:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511302050.jAUKoTg6001429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302048 SWODY1 SPC AC 302047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST DEEPER CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED ROUGHLY 100MI OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...AND WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM RISK. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 21:43:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 16:43:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200511302141.jAULfn4w013756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302133 SWODY1 SPC AC 302047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST DEEPER CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED ROUGHLY 100MI OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...AND WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM RISK. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM