[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241227
SWODY1
SPC AC 241225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE
JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35
NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW
TYR 15 E MWL 20 SSE ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25 NW
CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45
NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE
BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 50 W SAD 55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW
SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 65 SSE
DLH 30 SW STC 50 NW LWD 25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI
...CONT... 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO 40 S ROA MGW 15 ENE AOO 25 SSE CXY
35 SSW WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PLAINS SEWD TO
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ANCHORED BY UPPER
HIGH EASTERN CANADA.  UPPER LOW CONTINUES ALONG NERN COAST WITH AN
IMPULSE ROTATING SEWD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. UPPER HIGH
OVER SWRN U.S. BEING SLOWLY SUPPRESSED SWD AS WESTERLIES INCREASE TO
THE S OF UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.  NWLY FLOW PREVAILS
FROM HIGH PLAINS TO SERN STATES UNDER THIS UPPER AIR REGIME.

AT THE SURFACE E/W FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS SRN GA TO
CENTRAL AL AND THEN INTO NWRN AR WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE MCS THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS.  ADDITIONALLY A COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO SRN WY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN
HIGH PLAINS.

COLD OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT PLAINS MCS STILL MOVING SEWD ACROSS OK
INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
GFS/NAM IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT A REPEAT OF MONDAYS UPSLOPE HIGH
PLAINS SEVERE SLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  IT WILL TAKE MOST OF DAY
TO RECOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT BY MID AFTERNOON THE
STRONG HEATING AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SHOULD SET STAGE FOR
INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB. A LITTLE
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON MONDAY
AS WESTERLIES ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER S WITH FLATTENING OF
SWRN UPPER HIGH.  THUS SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR  VERY LARGE HAIL
AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  AGAIN CONVECTIVE MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE MORE SEWD TRACK THAN
CURRENT ONE.  THIS WOULD KEEP PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM WRN KS INTO
WRN OK AND POSSIBLY ERN TX PANHANDLE.  WITH MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH SUPERCELLS AND THEN AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING
EVENING WHEN A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AS MCS DEVELOPS AND PROPAGATES
SEWD.

CURRENT MCS OVER SRN KS APPEARS TO BE DECAYING WITH A PRONOUNCED MVC
NOTED ON COMPOSITE RADAR.  THIS MCV LIKELY NOT TO DIRECTLY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.


HOWEVER HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEWD IN AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND EWD
ALONG ERN GULF COAST. SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA EXPECTED TO BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN OVER PLAINS.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
AS VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY SERN
VA/ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL.

...E COAST OF CENTRAL FL...
S OF FRONTAL ZONE WLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAIN FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHERE E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT CAN LOCALLY
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.  STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE..PRIMARILY BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.