[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240600
SWODY1
SPC AC 240559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE
JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35
NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW
TYR 25 NNW MWL 25 WNW ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25
NW CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG
45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 50 SW BIL 15 WNW BZN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55
ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 45 N EAU 20 E FOD 30 NE SZL
25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 20 NNE TUS
55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO
40 S ROA 40 N SHD 10 NW MRB 10 W BWI 35 SSW WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM INTO
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW EWD TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA...AND A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE/COLD LOW OVER THE ERN
STATES.  SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THEN TURN SEWD WITHIN
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS
VALLEY.  GREATEST SEVERE THREATS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY FROM ERN CO/NERN NM EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/KS AND OK...WITH
A SEWD EXTENSION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...ERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY REACHING THE
MN BORDER TOWARD 00Z...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO NERN
CO.  ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING NWD INTO CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. 
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO
AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 
STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD
TO ERN CO/NERN NM.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. 
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD
FRONT/LEE TROUGH OVER NERN CO AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NEB...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

A SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO
30-40 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ONE OR TWO FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS/S MOVING SEWD ACROSS KS INTO OK WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT.

FURTHER N...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS SPREADING INTO MN/NWRN IA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME.  ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.  A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...ERN OK/AR TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK.  AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL REMAIN FROM NRN-ERN OK/WRN AR TO ERN
TX/LA/MS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY.  SURFACE HEATING
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS AND 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG.  

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AN MCV FROM THE MORNING MCS IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR RE-INTENSIFICATION ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ONGOING MCS FROM ERN OK INTO AR AND SEWD TO
LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE NWLY FLOW
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL.

...PORTIONS OF NERN-ERN FL...
A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN STATES CLOSED MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH 25/00Z
BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.  TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY...REACHING
NRN FL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  DEEP
WNWLY WINDS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT THE INLAND MOVEMENT
OF THE FL EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SWD TODAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.  SINCE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AOB 30 KT RESULTING IN A FEW MULTICELLS...A CATEGORICAL RISK
AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...MID ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING NWWD FROM THE ERN NC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
SWD ACROSS VA INTO NC TODAY.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S/ COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THIS REGION.  STORMS WITHIN THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL
APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINLY SUPPORT
MULTICELLS.  A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.