From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 00:38:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 19:38:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505010048.j410mjU2016172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010046 SWODY1 SPC AC 010044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 45 SSE CTY 30 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 35 S FMY ...CONT... 20 E GPT 15 S SEM 25 W LGC 45 SSE TYS 10 SSE ROA 30 NNE CXY 20 WNW MSV 15 E PSF 15 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BKE 50 W OWY 30 S MLD 55 ENE CAG 20 SSE DEN 25 WNW LAA 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S DHT 45 ESE DRO 25 NW SGU 50 ENE TPH 25 E UKI 25 E CEC 30 E OTH 30 SSE PDX 45 WNW BKE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL... ...CENTRAL AND NRN FL... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE WSWWD TO JUST NW OF OCALA. THOUGH LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WRN FL FROM THE ERN GULF...STRONGER STORMS ARE ONGOING IN NERN FL...WHERE THIS LINE IS IMPINGING UPON ZONE OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SELY FLOW E OF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. EVENING TBW SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATELY-STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE. THIS COMBINED WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD POOL / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SUGGEST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING REVERSES SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ...ELSEWHERE... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE PAC NW / NRN CA ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES / CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 04:19:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 23:19:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505010429.j414TMQ3021152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010426 SWODY1 SPC AC 010425 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25 S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 W TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 20 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 45 SW PUB 30 SE LBL 25 ESE CSM 10 NNW SPS 25 NNE ABI 40 NW BGS 35 NW ROW 40 S GUP 35 W GCN 45 NE DRA 75 WNW TPH 20 NE RBL 50 ESE CEC 30 NNE OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LITTLE SEVERE THREAT. ELSEWHERE...WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. THROUGH WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF W TX / ERN NM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. RESULTING WARM ADVECTION / UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORMS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN / CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE. CONVECTION MAY EXTEND AS FAR NWWD AS THE PAC NW. SHOWERS / A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST / LOWER LAKES REGION...AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND LARGER-SCALE UPPER LOW INVOF JAMES BAY. OVERALL -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL OVER THE CONUS...THUS PRECLUDING ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 12:15:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 07:15:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505011226.j41CQEPV024000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011223 SWODY1 SPC AC 011222 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25 S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 W TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 20 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 45 SW PUB 30 SE LBL 25 ESE CSM 10 NNW SPS 25 NNE ABI 40 NW BGS 35 NW ROW 40 S GUP 35 W GCN 45 NE DRA 75 WNW TPH 20 NE RBL 50 ESE CEC 30 NNE OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCALES. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THREAT. ALSO...AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ACROSS PARTS OF NV/UT...AND INTO WEST TX/OK. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS. ...FL THIS MORNING... MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MCS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND NEAR FMY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...AND THAT RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS... ORGANIZED NATURE OF MCS SUGGESTS SOME THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..HART/BANACOS.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 16:19:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 11:19:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505011630.j41GU7R6019085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011625 SWODY1 SPC AC 011624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25 S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 WSW TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 40 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 60 N ALS CAO 45 SW GAG 40 SSW LTS 30 NNW ABI 40 NW BGS 35 SSE 4CR 40 S GUP 35 W GCN 50 NNE DRA 75 WNW TPH 15 NW SVE 45 W MHS 40 S ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EXPANSIVE VORTEX OVER NRN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY WILL ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD INTO MONDAY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW/WESTERLIES ENCOMPASSING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF COLD FRONT THAT EXITED THE ERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS MORNING...SCT TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLD LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION OWING TO MODEST INSOLATION/SFC HEATING BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT. FURTHER WEST...COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSTMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING -- AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS NW TX AND PERHAPS FAR WRN OK TONIGHT INVOF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ...FL... ONGOING LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO GRAZE SOUTHWEST FL COAST/FLORIDA KEYS AT MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ALONG/SOUTH OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THICK CLOUD COVER/LIMITED LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT IS NEGLIGIBLE. ..GUYER/HALES.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 19:28:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 14:28:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505011938.j41Jcnpt018261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011930 SWODY1 SPC AC 011928 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 20 NNW MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25 S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 WSW TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 40 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 60 N ALS CAO 50 ENE AMA 40 SSW LTS 40 NW ABI 30 N MAF 40 S 4CR 55 SSW GUP 40 SW SGU 45 S BIH 50 SSW TVL 15 ESE RBL 45 W MHS 40 S ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHILE MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW PERSISTS E-W ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF NATION. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST... EXCEPT IN FL WHERE THE FRONT WAS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT NO MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...BUT THE SHALLOW DEPTH BETWEEN THE LFC AND EL SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY LIMITED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. FURTHER WEST...COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SRN ROCKIES REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..IMY.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 00:41:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 19:41:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505020051.j420pmTL023437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020049 SWODY1 SPC AC 020048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 40 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 35 S TWF 25 ENE ENV 35 SW PUB 40 NNW TCC 15 SW AMA 20 ENE PVW 35 SSE LBB 10 ENE HOB 15 S 4CR 30 NNE FLG 55 NE LAS 60 ENE U31 20 ESE LMT 45 ESE EKA 25 NE ACV 40 N ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL FL...AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE WRN CONUS...SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY -- MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION / SRN ROCKIES. ..GOSS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 05:48:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 00:48:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505020558.j425waa1013340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020556 SWODY1 SPC AC 020554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ACY 15 SW DOV 15 S BWI 35 S IPT 35 ESE BGM 15 W LEB 25 WNW AUG 30 SE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 35 ESE BKE 10 SE TWF 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 30 SE EHA 15 NNE CSM 40 W ADM 40 SSE SEP 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS 15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 50 NNW NID 45 ENE SCK EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WHILE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATES EWD THROUGH THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. / SRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SPREADING SWD / SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS WITH TIME. THOUGH GENERALLY COOL / STABLE AIR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS AS A RESULT...SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS. ...BIG BEND / RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OF TX... SELY FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW MARGINAL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWWD TOWARD THE TRANSPECOS REGION...AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THOUGH DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION -- IS IN QUESTION ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SWWD PROGRESS OF SECONDARY COLD SURGE NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS / WRN N TX. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST INVOF THE RIO GRANDE. ASSUMING STORMS DO DEVELOP...35 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND LOCATION OF FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. HOWEVER...GREATER MOISTURE RETURN / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION / SRN NEW ENGLAND... MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/ AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DESPITE COLD /-28C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SHOWERS / A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER FEATURE / DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH. FAIRLY STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. OVERALL HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ..GOSS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 12:27:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 07:27:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505021237.j42CbxSJ005749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021235 SWODY1 SPC AC 021233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 35 ESE BKE 10 SE TWF 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 30 SE EHA 15 NNE CSM 40 W ADM 40 SSE SEP 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS 15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 50 NNW NID 45 ENE SCK EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ACY 15 SW DOV 15 S BWI 35 S IPT 35 ESE BGM 15 W LEB 25 WNW AUG 30 SE AUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ILL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY INTO KY/TN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THESE AREAS...SUGGESTING THAT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP. FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN NH INTO MD. DESPITE CAPE VALUES ONLY IN THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATE A THREAT OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF DEEP CONVECTION... AS WELL AS MINIMAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES. ...SOUTHWEST TX... MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS TX TODAY...WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INDICATE A MARGINAL THREAT OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ANY STORMS SOUTH OF FRONT COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. ...FL... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..HART/BANACOS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 15:45:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 10:45:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505021555.j42FtIoS024140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021552 SWODY1 SPC AC 021550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS 15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 60 NW NID 45 NE SCK 45 WSW RBL 45 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 20 W ALW 20 NNW GEG 55 NE GEG 25 W MSO 30 NE 27U 55 WNW IDA 15 ESE OGD 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 25 E TAD 40 NE CVS 60 NNW ABI 15 E MWL 25 WNW AUS 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ORF 20 SSW NHK 10 S DCA 30 SSW IPT 25 N UCA BTV 25 ESE BML 30 SE AUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS COVERS CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S FL. AS A RESULT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS QUITE LIMITED FOR EARLY MAY. A STRONG COLD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WITH A FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO OFF SRN ENGLAND COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY SOME RETURN FLOW OF MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS IS MAKING ITS MAY BACK INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PRIMARILY W OF THE RIVER. ...NERN U.S... HAVE CONTINUED A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN MD/DE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT MUCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 200-300 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS THAT DEVELOP PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS AS LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONALLY SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT HAIL SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE COLD AIRMASS. ...BIG BEND AREA OF LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON SELY FLOW INTO THIS AREA...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE ON THE MEXICO SIDE OF RIO GRANDE RIVER. LOW CLOUDINESS NOW ACROSS BIG BEND AREA WILL DELAY HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO AND THEN DEVELOP UNDER 30-40 KT OF WLY FLOW ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND WITH EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY CONFINED TO MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IF SUFFICIENT CAPE CAN DEVELOP INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SOON LOW CLOUDINESS NOW ACROSS REGION CAN DISSIPATE. ...SRN FL... SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO INTRODUCING LOW SEVERE THREAT INTO SRN FL...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT DURING AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. ..HALES/GUYER.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 19:58:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 14:58:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505022009.j42K92om024090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022004 SWODY1 SPC AC 022002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS SOW IGM 60 NW NID 45 NE SCK 45 WSW RBL 45 SSW OTH ...CONT... 60 E BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 20 W ALW 20 NNW GEG 55 NE GEG 25 W MSO 30 NE 27U MQM OGD 50 N PUC 50 ESE ASE TAD 50 WSW CVS HOB BGS JCT HDO 65 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY ILG IPT SYR SLK BML 30 SE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED FOR REMAINDER DAY-1 BY LARGE CYCLONE OVER ERN CANADA...AS NUMEROUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM LE SWD ACROSS WRN NC -- IS FCST TO ACCELERATE NEWD...DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY COLD FRONT OVER NWRN ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE FROM COAST...EXCEPT WHERE TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL FL AS QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND ALSO WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ...SW TX - RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DENSE STRATUS DECK PERSISTING -- GENERALLY OVER AND W OF RIO GRANDE FROM BRO-DRT...THEN NWWD UP PECOS VALLEY AND OVER MOST OF ERN NM. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS LOW CLOUDS RESTRICT SFC HEATING FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ON HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA AND WRN TRANS-PECOS REGION. MOST FAVORABLE SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE FROM MOUTH OF PECOS RIVER SEWD ALONG MEX MOUNTAIN FRONT AND FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE W DRT...PRIND RISK OF SEVERE IS TOO SMALL FOR 5 PERCENT OR GREATER PROBABILITIES BY THE TIME SUCH ACTIVITY CROSSES OVER 70-100 NM OF STRATIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH BORDER. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND FROM BOTH COASTS...POSSIBLY INTERSECTING BY ABOUT 22-23Z ALONG AXIS FROM KISSIMMEE VALLEY ACROSS OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO EVERGLADES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL AMIDST VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 00:52:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 19:52:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505030102.j4312P5j029658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030100 SWODY1 SPC AC 030058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FLG 40 ESE NID NFL 70 S BNO 65 ENE BNO 25 SW SUN 10 W OGD 20 W PUC 30 N MTJ 30 NNE ALS 35 W RTN 35 SSW LVS 45 W ONM 40 S FLG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MIA 45 SSE AGR VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS EXTREME SERN FL. ...SRN FL... TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE ACROSS SERN FL VCNTY OF A WEAK SEABREEZE. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS. THE TSTMS THREAT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...OR DIMINISH ALTOGETHER...AFTER 03Z AS THE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. ...GREAT BASIN/SRN ROCKIES... SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z. AS A RESULT...TSTMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT VCNTY THE 4-CORNERS ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..RACY.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 05:13:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 00:13:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505030523.j435NFlV013902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030520 SWODY1 SPC AC 030519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U31 65 ESE 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 30 ESE RDM 50 E DLS 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 25 NNW HLN 35 NE JAC 50 SSE LND 10 NW LAR 40 ESE CYS 15 NE AKO 35 W GLD 15 SE LAA 40 ENE RTN 45 WNW CVS 35 NE HOB 50 NW ABI 25 SSW BWD 25 N SAT 15 N NIR 25 NE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE NATION WILL DEAMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LEAVING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A COOL CP AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF THE ERN-TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...PRECLUDING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... A FEW TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL TUESDAY. A FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE KEYS WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FLOWING NWD AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING EWD FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TSTMS...NOW OVER THE SERN GULF...WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT/FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...RIO GRANDE VLY INTO W TX... 00Z H85 CHART SHOWED A SECONDARY SURGE OF CP AIR MASS HEADED SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE COOL ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WWD BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE VLY TO ALONG THE NERN MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. APPROACH OF THE WEAK SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ATOP THE COLD DOME IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS W TX SEWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VLY. SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER...IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE COOL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY/LEVIT.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 12:36:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 07:36:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505031246.j43CkQQI026761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031245 SWODY1 SPC AC 031243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW 30 WSW ELY 40 NW TWF 30 WNW BOI 80 E 4LW 40 NW SVE 45 SSW RBL 55 NNW UKI 15 NNE MFR 40 NW RDM 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF 30 E 3HT 40 SE BIL 25 SE WRL 50 ESE RIW 25 NE RWL 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 40 SE LIC 25 SSE PUB 25 NW CAO 30 WSW TCC 35 SSW CVS 15 SW PVW 40 NNE ABI 35 SE BWD 20 WNW NIR 30 ENE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. RATHER DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE NATION WILL PROVIDE AN UNSEASONABLY QUIET CONVECTIVE PATTERN TODAY. ...FL... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHERE 60S DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE WEAK...LIMITING ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. ...WESTERN STATES... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ID/MT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...INTO TX. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PECOS REGION OF TX. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 15:35:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 10:35:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505031545.j43FjUpI032461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031543 SWODY1 SPC AC 031541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CTY 20 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW 60 SSE ELY 50 SE OWY 70 NNW WMC 25 WNW SVE 40 WSW MHS 15 NNE MFR 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF 45 E RIW 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 50 E TAD DHT 35 WNW ADM 45 SE DAL 35 NW HOU 10 ESE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION TODAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SCT CONVECTION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OVER CENTRAL/WRN NM. LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ABOVE STABLE SFC LAYER...ISOLATED/SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN WEST WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. THE ONLY SVR THREAT TODAY WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEA BREEZE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN SCT CONVECTION WITH AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. ...SRN/CENTRAL FL... ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR AND SOUNDING DATA FROM 02/12Z AND 03/12Z SHOWS MODEST COOLING FROM 750 MB UP TO 200 MB OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEPER.../AROUND 7.0 DEG C/KM/. IN ADDITION STRONGER FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM 500 TO 200 MB TODAY THAN OCCURRED YESTERDAY THUS...STORM TOP VENTING IN THE UPPER LVLS AND GREATER PARCEL ACCELERATION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR. LITTLE CINH EXISTS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND GIVEN FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND MID LEVEL ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SCT STRONG/ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL...BUT MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT /SLT RISK/ WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 25-30 KTS...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER NOTED ON THE 12Z MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS. ...WRN/CENTRAL NM... RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 60/38 AT ABQ. AMPLE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE/HALES.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 19:55:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 14:55:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505032006.j43K680g012245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032002 SWODY1 SPC AC 032000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 20 SE SRQ 30 E PIE 30 NNW AGR 15 W MLB VRB 40 WNW PBI 40 SE FMY FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN FLG ELY 50 SE OWY 70 NNW WMC 25 WNW SVE 40 WSW MHS MFR 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF 45 E RIW 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 50 E TAD 35 W CSM ADM 45 SE DAL 35 NW HOU 10 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 35 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. EXPECT NRN STREAM DEAMPLIFICATION OVER NERN CONUS...AS TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION TURNS EWD AND WEAKENS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NM -- IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH SOME GEN TSTM POTENTIAL IN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE...OVER CENTRAL/WRN TX. OTHER GEN TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER LARGE PART OF WRN CONUS HIGHER TERRAIN. SFC FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH 04/12Z. FARTHER W...DEEP/SEASONALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER S-CENTRAL CONUS AND NERN MEX...E OF MOUNTAINS. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS LIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER FL PENINSULA...ALONG AND S OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN THE GULF/ATLANTIC COASTAL SEA BREEZE FRONTS. LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW POOL...WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS. AIR MASS FARTHER NW ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN FL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION. 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL AMBIENT FLOW AND SHEAR REMAIN WEAK...STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED/LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...BOTH WITH RIGHT-MOVERS AND LEFT SPLITS. A FEW OF EACH STORM TYPE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR INVOF BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES...INCLUDING RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL SE SRQ AND N FMY. EXPECT BULK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO WEAKEN AFTER ABOUT 23Z...WHEN OUTFLOW POOLS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF AREA AND DIABATIC HEATING HAS PASSED PEAK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 00:49:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 19:49:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505040059.j440xFiu005364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040057 SWODY1 SPC AC 040055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 55 N SVC BCE 35 S ENV 75 NNW SUN 45 S MSO 25 WSW HLN 45 E WEY 45 S BPI 20 SSW ALS 45 SW CAO 50 WNW CSM 20 SE FSI 10 SSE TPL MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 20 SSE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/SRN FL... TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS CNTRL AND PARTS OF SRN FL AS A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THIS PROCESS IS APT TO CONTINUE THROUGH 02-03Z WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST/HAILSTONE. BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...BUOYANCY/TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THOUGH TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO. CNTRL/SRN FL WILL REMAIN BENEATH SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWING NWD. GIVEN THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES/ SHEAR-LINES ACROSS THE REGION...A TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... MAINLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE NUMBER OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT...TSTMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL/W TX AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE WILL PROBABLY KEEP A TSTM THREAT GOING ALL NIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/W TX. MEAGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD MITIGATE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ..RACY.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 04:59:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 23:59:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505040509.j4459XPh002676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040507 SWODY1 SPC AC 040505 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 30 N MRF 20 ESE CNM 40 NE 4CR 35 NNW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 W BCE 50 WSW MLF 50 E U31 35 E LOL 15 E RNO 30 NNW NID 25 NNE SBA 30 ESE MRY 35 S UKI EKA 20 N 4BK 10 NNW ONP 20 NW OLM 10 NNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 40 NNW GTF 70 SW GGW 20 WNW ABR 30 NNW FOD 40 SSW ALO 25 ENE IRK 45 N SZL 35 SSE BIE 15 ENE HLC 25 NNW LBL 45 WSW SPS 35 W ACT 40 SSW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW AQQ 40 S AYS 30 ENE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE NERN STATES AND A NEW UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLYS BY 05/12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL FL. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS FL ON WEDNESDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AND AFFECTS OF ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE/HEATING WILL MAKE FOR AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST ON COVERAGE/LOCATION OF THE GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. SEABREEZE/RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCI FOR TSTMS...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. EVOLUTION INTO HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN THE ABOVE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE MORE CERTAIN. ...NERN CO/NWRN KS TO CNTRL NEB... LEE-TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...IN TANDEM WITH THE NRN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. INCREASE IN MOISTURE...APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE DURING PEAK HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO CNTRL NEB AFTER 21Z. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY...COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLD AT BEST WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS AND MOVE ACROSS NEB OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY SUB-SEVERE. ...NRN/CNTRL CA... UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ONSHORE CNTRL/NRN CA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL CA AND GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING EWD INTO CNTRL CA...MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF KSTO. HOWEVER...IN THE NRN VLYS WHERE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER... THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD STRONG TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE HAILSTONES APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ..RACY/LEVIT.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 11:59:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 06:59:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505041209.j44C9dV5008383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041207 SWODY1 SPC AC 041205 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE MIA 30 S FMY ...CONT... 35 SSE CTY 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 30 N MRF 20 ESE CNM 40 NE 4CR 35 NNW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 W BCE 50 WSW MLF 50 E U31 35 E LOL 15 E RNO 30 NNW NID 25 NNE SBA 30 ESE MRY 35 S UKI EKA 20 N 4BK 10 NNW ONP 20 NW OLM 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 40 NNW GTF 75 SW GGW 15 SE GDV 20 ESE ISN 40 NNW DVL 45 SE RRT 50 SSW INL 40 W BRD 40 S STC 25 S FRM 50 ENE DSM 30 WSW BRL 25 ENE MKC 15 N BIE 30 E HLC 25 SW GCK 45 WSW SPS 35 W ACT 15 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AQQ 40 NNE DHN 25 SSW ATL 30 SSE AHN 40 N SAV 35 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION TODAY..WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER TX. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND LAND/SEA INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA. INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXISTS OFF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. SEVERE THREAT INLAND WILL BE LESSENED THIS MORNING DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN YESTERDAY. BUT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO NUMEROUS SEA-BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX OVER WESTERN WY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS BY EVENING. FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS REGION WILL AID IN SOME DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON...WITH POCKETS OF MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/CO INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD CENTRAL NEB. A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY CA... NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 AT 500MB/ WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEY OF CA...LEADING TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER THIS REGION AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MLCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG. HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...SO WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 16:19:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 11:19:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505041630.j44GU2Lh022388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041626 SWODY1 SPC AC 041624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MRY 20 E SJC 55 NNW UKI 15 SSW EUG 30 SSE PDX 45 ESE YKM 55 NW 63S ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 25 ENE TCS 35 NW 4HV 35 W MLF 30 SSW P38 55 SW DRA 35 N OXR 15 W SBA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 10 SSE MCN 30 SE CAE 30 SW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RRT 30 ESE AXN 40 ESE SUX 45 W CNK 25 ENE LBL 40 W CDS SJT 10 NE CRP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA ATTM...MAINLY S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY JAX TO CTY. A FEW STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS ARE ONGOING...BUT INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT RECENTLY AS COVERAGE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND. DESPITE SUFFICIENTLY-STRONG WIND FIELD...INHIBITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NRN / CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY AS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE ERN GULF CONTINUES MOVING ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL FL. THOUGH A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW THAT OF YESTERDAY. GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS S FL ATTM...WHERE ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS INDICATED. BOUNDARY-LAYER CU FIELD IS INCREASING OVER S FL...WITH APPARENT SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS APPROACHING THE ERN FL COAST ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS S FL THAN AREAS FURTHER N...BUT SOME INCREASE IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...WILL EXPAND THE SEVERE THREAT SWD ACROSS ALL OF S FL TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #734. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS INVOF 40 F/ IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH LBF /NORTH PLATTE NEB/ SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWING DRY AIR EXTENDING TO 700 MB. THOUGH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IS INDICATED...BELIEVE THE NAM / NAMKF ARE MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH FORECASTS OF MID 40S DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FULL SUN / DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...RUC PFCS SHOWING LOW 30S DEWPOINTS AND DEEP INVERTED V PROFILES SEEM MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THUS...DESPITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BELIEVE THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MEAGER SUCH THAT ONLY MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION. SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THIS REGION ATTM. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED...SLIGHT LARGE-SCALE UVV ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY FORECAST SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD YIELD GREATER INSTABILITY...MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR HAIL / EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING / WEAK MOIST ADVECTION AND MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS. ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...WITHIN ZONE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH REGION UNDER WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ATTM. THOUGH TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE COAST. THUS -- WITH LITTLE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND WITH ANY COOLING ALOFT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 20:00:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 15:00:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505042010.j44KAdVp000692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042007 SWODY1 SPC AC 042005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CTY 35 N DAB ...CONT... 40 S MIA 15 NW EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SJC 55 NNW UKI EUG 30 SSE PDX EPH 55 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 WNW RRT AXN OTG 35 NW CNK LBL PVW SJT 25 E CRP ...CONT... ELP TCS 4HV MLF P38 DRA NID VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN MCN AGS ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MOST OF PENINSULAR FL... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NWRN MO REGION MOVES EWD TOWARD OH VALLEY. SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER MS DELTA REGION AND NWRN GULF WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS DIXIE TONIGHT...INDUCING FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN GULF. EXPECT THIS CYCLONE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA LATE THIS PERIOD INTO EARLY DAY-2. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONTAL ZONE NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FL SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS AMBIENT WAA AND SLY FLOW COMPONENT IS OFFSET BY STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LARGE PRECIP AREA ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE OVER REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS. REF WW 220 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW APCHS AND MOVES INLAND W COAST. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED BACKING OF SFC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ENLARGED BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL FL AND PERHAPS INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS OVER S FL. LIFTED PARCELS SHOULD BE NEARLY SFC BASED GIVEN DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F AND TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS. WEAKNESSES IN LOW-MIDLEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW MAY LIMIT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH COLLECTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED -- TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...TX BIG BEND TO ERN NM MOUNTAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THIS REGION...AS DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN ERODES REMAINING CINH. MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA IS MARGINAL BUT INCREASING...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 40S/50S F OVER FAR W TX AND UPPER 30S/40S OVER ERN NM PLAINS AND MESAS. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT BULK SHEAR VALUES AND WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZES SMALL. HOWEVER A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLS MAY DEVELOP GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 50-60 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOWS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...BENEATH MLCAPES 200-800 J/KG. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NARROW CORRIDOR JUST E OF MOUNTAINS WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK HAS ERODED AWAY...ALLOWING OPTIMAL INSOLATION HEATING FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. A FEW HAIL/GUSTS EVENTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SLOW/POTENTIALLY DEVIANT MOTIONS OF DISCRETE CELLS MAY AID STORM ORGANIZATION FOR BRIEF PERIODS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER DARK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 00:43:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 19:43:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505050053.j450rYKF025463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050051 SWODY1 SPC AC 050049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT TVF AXN OTG OMA RSL GCK 25 NNW EHA 45 S CVS 25 NNE CNM 10 SSE CNM 30 SE GDP 25 W FST 30 SSE BGS ABI 10 WSW MWL 30 SE DAL 20 SSE ACT 40 S BWD JCT 70 ENE P07 40 NE P07 40 SE P07 ...CONT... ELP TCS 10 ESE U17 40 N BCE MLF 40 SSE ELY U31 10 N LOL 60 NE SVE 30 S MFR EUG SLE 15 ENE OLM 35 ENE CLM ...CONT... 35 NNE 4OM PUW 60 NNW SUN JAC RIW 10 NW LAR CYS 15 N AIA RAP 4BQ SDY 70 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PNS MCN AGS 20 SE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FLORIDA... MUCH OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. MOST PROMINENT COLD POOL ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...AND AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC EAST OF JACKSONVILLE AND MELBOURNE. THIS IS SOUTH OF WEAK/WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONT AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT... ADVECTION/ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF EASTERN GULF BOUNDARY LAYER ...WITH 70F DEW POINTS...ABOVE COLD POOLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION OVER INLAND AREAS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEVERE RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...WITH STRONGER CELLS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO PLAINS... DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MOST PROMINENT FORCING FOR MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD 05/06Z. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LIKELY BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 05:47:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 00:47:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505050557.j455vgmH026517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050555 SWODY1 SPC AC 050554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW FMY AGR 35 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO 35 WSW RBL 25 SSW MFR 20 NW EUG 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 20 NE 3HT 10 S GCC 10 E PIR 30 W RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 S CWA 15 W LWD 20 SSW EMP 15 NNW OKC 30 ESE SPS 15 ENE SEP 55 S BWD 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 W ELP 40 W TCS 35 WNW FLG 20 NE TRM 35 NNW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 70 SW SEM 30 SW HSV 45 SSE BNA 30 SSW CSV 35 ENE RMG 40 N AGS 15 S SOP 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE SRN FL PEN... MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S. WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LEAD TROUGH MAY SHARPEN SOME AS IT CONTINUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN GULF STATES. IN ITS WAKE...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS BROAD UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. FARTHER NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL REMAIN LESS AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER... AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/YUKON/EASTERN ALASKA...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ...FLORIDA... INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK...WHEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD COMMENCE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER... MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN PENINSULA AREAS. CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA BY MID DAY COULD PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ...WHILE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY EVOLVES ON EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...SOUTH OF MELBOURNE INTO THE MIAMI AREA. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER STORMS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ...PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO HAMPER RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ALONG/WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS...BUT CAPPING WILL INCREASE BENEATH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAIRLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WHEN A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOWER TO END AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE WEAKENED BY TAIL END OF DIGGING CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WHILE LOW MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIMIT CAPE AND STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS...ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...CALIFORNIA... EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH COOLING ALOFT IS NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...MAY COMPENSATE SUFFICIENTLY FOR CAPE TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHEAR PROFILES COULD BECOME LOCALLY SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 12:42:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 07:42:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505051252.j45CquN8011210@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051250 SWODY1 SPC AC 051249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MIA AGR 45 NW ORL 20 NE GNV 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 40 W TCS 35 WNW FLG 20 NE TRM 35 NNW SAN ...CONT... 35 NW SFO 35 WSW RBL 25 SSW MFR 20 NW EUG 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 20 NE 3HT 10 S GCC 10 E PIR 30 W RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 S CWA 15 W LWD 20 SSW EMP 15 NNW OKC 30 ESE SPS 15 ENE SEP 55 S BWD 20 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 70 SW SEM 30 SW HSV 45 SSE BNA 30 SSW CSV 35 ENE RMG 40 N AGS 15 S SOP 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO ID. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING INTO CA. SEVERAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH PATTERN REMAINS RATHER COOL/STABLE FOR EARLY MAY. ...FL/GA... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J/KG. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING NORTH FL AND SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RISK OF HAIL. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FOCUS STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SD/MN... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE 50S ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SD/MN. MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND MODEST INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NM AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTHERN CA... UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO CA TODAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AFFECTING THE AREA. POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF HAIL. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 15:47:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 10:47:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505051557.j45Fvc9O003720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051552 SWODY1 SPC AC 051551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE EYW AGR 45 NW ORL 20 NE GNV 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 70 NE SAD 20 N PRC 55 WSW EED 10 E LGB ...CONT... 30 S MRY 35 WSW RBL 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 15 NW SHR 65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 25 NW ABR 30 W RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 10 SSW OSH 40 NE DSM 35 W BIE 40 SW RSL 35 NNE CDS 35 W MWL 25 ENE BWD 35 NE JCT 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PNS 70 SW SEM 30 SW HSV 30 N JKL 25 W BKW 20 SW HKY 25 SW RDU 30 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... ONE SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER ENTERS SWRN STATES. IN NRN STREAM A WEAK S/WV TRACKS EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE MUCH OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NERN STATES. SLY RETURN FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH IS GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE NWD THRU THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO REFORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW NWRN MN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL SD MOVES SLOWLY EWD TODAY SUPPORTED BY ASSOCIATED S/WV TROUGH. ...FL PENINSULA... INITIALLY WIND PROFILES AND LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF PENINSULA TODAY. HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ERN GULF REDUCING INSOLATION...PARTICULARLY W COAST...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO MORE WLY AS SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF NERN FL COAST...PRIMARY AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY SHOULD BE ERN PENINSULA. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND CONVERGENCE PARTICULARLY ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT...A FEW ROTATING STORMS ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUCH AS THE ONE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS THIS AM. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MOSTLY LESS THAN 50F...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT...WILL INITIATE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NRN MN INTO ERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...PRECLUDING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT ATTM. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS OF SWRN TX TO MID 50S IN THE PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SWRN TX. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT ARE GENERALLY WEAK...THE 8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD INTENSIFY SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OF WRN TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ...CA... EXAMINING MORNING SOUNDINGS AND 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SEE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR OTHER THAN WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF TROUGH MOVING INLAND TODAY. AIR ALOFT IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LACK OF GOOD SURFACE HEATING PRECLUDES A CONCERN FOR SEVERE. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 19:58:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 14:58:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505052008.j45K87x5023299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052003 SWODY1 SPC AC 052002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ANJ 10 SSW OSH 40 NE DSM 35 W BIE 40 SW RSL 35 NNE CDS 35 W MWL 25 ENE BWD 35 NE JCT 25 NW DRT ...CONT... 25 SE DUG 70 NE SAD 20 N PRC 45 WNW BLH SAN ...CONT... 30 S MRY 35 WSW RBL 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 15 NW SHR 65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 25 NW ABR 30 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PNS 70 SW SEM 30 SW HSV 30 N JKL 25 W BKW 20 SW HKY 25 SW RDU 30 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SD/NEB... TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF MN FROM SE OF ELO TO N OF RWF. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS INITIALLY ELEVATED...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY-LAYER DEEPENING IS LIKELY ALLOWING MANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AND WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NWRN/NRN MN SWWD THROUGH NERN SD...AND AS FAR SW AS WRN/SWRN NEB. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL. ...FL... RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR/LDS DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGEST TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NE OF JAX AND RESULTANT VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN FL COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY TO REMOVE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ...NM/FAR WRN TX... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NM/WRN TX. WHILE MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NM. PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MAY ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN INTO CNTRL NM THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING OR DEVELOPING INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/STRONG WINDS...PRIOR TO WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT. ...CA... TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM E OF FAT TO SE OF BFL. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED NATURE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER /PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 00:46:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 19:46:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505060056.j460u6OA028306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060053 SWODY1 SPC AC 060051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW FCA 30 WSW SHR 65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 30 NE BKX 15 W INL ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 10 SSW OSH 50 NNW OTM 30 WSW BIE 25 WNW GCK 25 NNW AMA 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 10 WSW ELP 55 WNW TCS 20 N PRC 60 E DAG 10 WSW LGB ...CONT... 45 WNW PRB 35 SW MFR 45 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 65 SE MEI 0A8 50 W SAV 25 SSE FLO 40 SE ECG ...CONT... 25 N PBI SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ID... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON THE NORTH OF SIDE OF GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC LOW WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS TSTMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM 00Z BOI SOUNDING/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE TREASURE/SNAKE RIVER VALLEYS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND SVR THREAT END BY 04Z. ...MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB/NRN IA... AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER WILL SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL/ECENTRAL MN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN MN SWWD INTO SERN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS INTO NRN IA WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. INCREASING CINH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL AID IN SVR THREAT DIMINISHING AROUND 03Z. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 06Z/ ACROSS SCENTRAL SD...NCENTRAL/NERN NEB ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT IMPINGES ON MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. MARGINAL CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS AND MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG WILL LIMIT THE THREAT TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AT MOST IN THIS AREA. ...SCENTRAL/SERN NM...FAR WRN TX... SEVERAL STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE E/SE OF ELP WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL NM AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BECOME POSE A SHORT LIVED SVR THREAT ACROSS THE GUADALUPE...SACRAMENTO MTNS AND ADJACENT PECOS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 03Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS. CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO A WEAK MCS OVERNIGHT WHILE MOVING INTO WRN TX...BUT SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE.... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE INCREASING CINH AIDS IN STORM DEMISE BY 03Z. ...CENTRAL COASTAL RANGE/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OF CA... LIMITED REMAINING HEATING AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/RAINFALL WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DESPITE COLD MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. ..CROSBIE/GOSS.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 05:39:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 00:39:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505060549.j465nPSF019931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060546 SWODY1 SPC AC 060545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLD 25 NNW AIA 15 S RAP 15 S REJ 35 E Y22 35 ENE ABR OTG 30 WSW FOD 50 NW LWD 25 NNE FNB 35 SE HSI 50 WSW HLC 40 SW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 15 S CNM 20 NNE ROW 45 NE 4CR 15 S ABQ 75 E SOW 60 WNW SAD 75 SW PRC 30 NW LAS 45 NNE TPH 45 E BNO 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 SW FAR 30 NNW RST 30 W RHI 20 WSW CMX ...CONT... 25 ENE TOL 20 NE FWA 15 NE CMI 40 SW UIN 25 SSW OJC 25 WNW END 20 SW LTS 25 SSE SJT 35 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE FMY 10 N VRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ND SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...ALONG LEE TROUGH / DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW. ...NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS... NAM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECAST AGAIN SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE...WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS DEPICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE IS FORECAST ABOVE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT FORECAST ACROSS SD IN REGION OF SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED ATTM SHOULD RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING / LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH THIS SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ATTM ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF SD / NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD FUEL MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MO VALLEY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... DRYLINE / LEE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS ERN NM / FAR W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY FOCUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COMBINED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN NARROW AXIS OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT FROM SERN CO / SWRN KS SWD TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF W TX. ANY STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 12:53:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 07:53:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505061303.j46D3F5a021476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061300 SWODY1 SPC AC 061259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE LIC 25 NW CYS 30 NNE CPR 35 NW GCC 20 NE Y22 35 ENE ABR OTG 30 WSW FOD 50 NW LWD 25 NNE FNB 35 SE HSI 50 WSW HLC 20 ESE LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 35 ESE FWA 15 WNW DNV 40 SW UIN 55 SW SZL TUL 25 S ADM 15 ESE BWD 50 SE DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 10 SSE ROW 50 ENE 4CR 45 SSW LVS 40 SW GNT 50 SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 55 N DVL 25 W FAR 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 40 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD EJECT NE INTO SW WY/WRN CO BY 12Z SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL E PACIFIC SPEED MAXIMA DROP SE INTO NRN BAJA/NRN SONORA. AT LWR LEVELS...DEEP SSWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH JUST E OF THE RCKYS FROM MT TO NM...WITH LEE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER SE MT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE. FARTHER E...BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE E INTO THE UPR MS VLY SHOULD LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT/ EARLY SATURDAY. ...WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS... LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS FACTOR...COUPLED WITH RATHER MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...SHOULD DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. OTHER ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY ELEVATED...MAY CONTINUE TO FORM INVOF STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH. BUT RATHER MODEST /25-30 KT/ MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW WILL YIELD DEEP SHEAR THAT...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MEAN MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD ...HOWEVER...DEVELOP TO SUPPORT CELLS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER IMPULSE SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE HIGH PLNS WILL QUICKLY ORIENT INTO N/S LINES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD...HOWEVER... STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP INTO ONE OR TWO STRONG CLUSTERS LATER IN THE EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SLOWLY INCREASE. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NEB AND SD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT E TOWARD THE MO VLY...WITH AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. ...SRN HI PLNS... DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH MAY BE THE FOCUS OF ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER ERN NM/FAR W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CAP SHOULD KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLATED. DEEP SHEAR WILL... HOWEVER...BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N...HAVING A GREATER DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. COUPLED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE...ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 16:15:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 11:15:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505061625.j46GPULF008229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061621 SWODY1 SPC AC 061619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E ROW 30 S DEN 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW RWF 30 E FOD 50 NW LWD 20 SE BIE 45 SSW EAR 45 ENE HOB 40 E ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 40 N DAY 15 N HUF 45 NE COU 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50 WSW COT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 10 SSE ROW 50 ENE 4CR 45 SSW LVS 40 SW GNT 50 SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 20 W RRT 30 S BJI 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 40 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS... 12Z MODELS STILL CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT SPREADING ENEWD AWAY FROM THE CO/WY MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES LIKELY KEEPING DRY LINE INTO NERN NM/CENTRAL CO/ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE ERN SLOPES SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE MLCAPE FROM NM NWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL CO/WY MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NRN NM. SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STEER THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN WY/WRN SD SWD INTO NERN NM...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY INGEST GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...THOUGH PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO CLUSTERS/LINES. STORMS MAY REMAIN MORE DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR FARTHER SOUTH INTO SERN CO/NERN NM/WRN OK-TX PANHANDLES WHERE ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE ISOLATED. APPEARS MORE CONCENTRATED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB/WRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO/NWRN KS/WRN SD AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM IA/NERN NEB NWWD INTO WRN SD...AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM STALLS AND THEN BEGINS LIFTING NEWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE TODAY...CAPPING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UNDER PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. 12Z RUC AND ETA DO INDEED DEVELOP STORMS OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA TOWARDS 00Z. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST...THOUGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER DARK ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SLY LLJ WHICH INCREASES ACROSS WRN KS/WRN NEB. POSSIBLE MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH SEPARATE MCS POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AS LLJ VEERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MI/NRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI TODAY. THOUGH MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER / I.E. MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG /...DEEP ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONG SHEAR WHICH MAY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... LARGE AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TODAY. STORMS MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN AZ/UT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ENSUING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 19:52:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 14:52:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505062002.j46K25LX001503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061956 SWODY1 SPC AC 061955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE GDP 30 S DEN 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW RWF 30 E FOD 50 NW LWD 20 SE BIE 10 N CNK 30 WSW RSL 40 WSW GAG 55 ENE FST 30 E MRF 50 SE GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 40 N DAY 15 N HUF 45 NE COU 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50 WSW COT ...CONT... 70 SW MRF 30 ESE ALM 40 SSW 4CR 30 NNW ONM 60 SSW GNT 50 SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 20 W RRT 30 S BJI 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SD...NEB AND WRN IA... ...HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SD/NEB/KS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WHERE TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE. A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM FEATURE IS ALSO EVIDENT FROM ERN CO SWD INTO FAR ERN NM/WRN TX. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SECONDARY FEATURE IS RESULTING IN SURFACE LOW FORMATION N OF GLD...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR MAF. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION E OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO NEB. WITH APPROACH OF AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE E ALONG BULGING DRYLINE OVER NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB...AS WELL AS SERVE TO ENHANCE ONGOING STORMS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SRN SD INTO NWRN IA. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING WITH TIME THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FARTHER TO THE E ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD/NEB/KS. THUS...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND RESULTANT HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT EWD ACROSS SD AND NEB ALONG 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS. WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH SRN EXTENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES/STABILIZES. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 744. ...GREAT BASIN... ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE N/NE OF AFOREMENTIONED AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN/WRN UT TODAY. DOWNSTREAM REGION OF SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EWD/NEWD MOVEMENT AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THOUGH AIR MASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL WIND/HAIL WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ...GREAT LAKES... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS FIELD/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL UP OF MI SWWD INTO NRN WI. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND STEEPING LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS REGION IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI. RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IN ADDITION TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINAL HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 745. ..MEAD.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 7 00:44:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 19:44:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505070054.j470sM0i031989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070052 SWODY1 SPC AC 070050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PUB 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 W ATY 15 N OTG 30 E FOD 50 NW LWD 30 NW FNB 35 WSW BIE 40 N RSL 50 E DHT 10 NW FST 25 ESE GDP 35 SSW PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 20 NW GDP 15 ESE 4CR 30 SSE SAF 30 W GNT 30 SE PRC 15 ENE EED 55 W DRA 30 NW OWY 35 SE BNO 30 S PDT 45 SSE EPH 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 45 W RRT 50 N AXN 30 S MSP 35 W LNR 25 ESE OSH 50 ENE PLN ...CONT... 35 NW CLE 30 ENE DAY 30 SE IND 35 SW UIN 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50 WSW COT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS SWD ACROSS ERN NM / W TX... ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ATTM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN MT / SWRN ND SWD TO FAR W TX...INVOF LEE TROUGH / AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ATTM. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD...COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED CONVECTIVE THREAT. STORMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH A SLOW DECREASING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS. IN THE MEAN TIME...1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. FURTHER N ACROSS NWRN KS INTO NEB / SD -- AND TO A LESSER DEGREE INTO ERN MT / ND...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AIDED BY INCREASING QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL JET / APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL ATTM...SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN PLACE ALONG / S OF WARM FRONT FROM SERN MT ACROSS SD / NERN NEB INTO IA SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO PARTS OF IA WITH TIME...AS NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... SCATTERED STRONG / A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN LK MI / NRN IL ATTM...WITHIN ZONE OF WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ON SRN FRINGES OF ONTARIO VORT MAX. STORMS ARE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY ATTM. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND WEAKER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL / WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 05:04:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 00:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505080514.j485ESOR013807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080512 SWODY1 SPC AC 080510 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 55 N EAU OTM 20 E SGF 15 SSW HOT 25 NNE SHV 50 ENE LFK 25 SSE VCT 40 S LRD ...CONT... 45 ESE P07 50 WSW ABI 45 ENE GAG 30 NNW RSL 40 NE BUB 15 NNW 9V9 40 SE BIS 40 NNW JMS 20 NE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ANJ 40 NE MKG 25 SSW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 35 ESE GWO 25 SW HEZ 7R4 ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 55 E AMA 25 N LBL 30 SE TAD 50 ENE DRO 40 NNE CNY 55 NNW PUC 30 SW ENV 40 WNW ELY 45 NNE TPH 30 NNW BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 25 SW SCK 40 WSW SAC 60 NNW UKI ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 10 NNE HLN 20 SE BZN 25 S COD 35 ESE RWL 20 NNW CYS 50 W CDR 45 ESE 4BQ 10 SSE GDV 75 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN SWD TO TX... ...SYNOPSIS... UNUSUAL / HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE W COAST...ONE VACATING THE E COAST...AND A LOW / SHARP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH / FRONT WILL EXIST. STRONG RIDGING AT MID LEVELS -- BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM -- SHOULD CONFINE CONVECTIVE THREAT PRIMARILY TO THE PLAINS / MS VALLEY REGION. FURTHER W...A CONVECTIVE / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW APPROACHING THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL QUARTER OF THE CONUS FROM MN / THE ERN DAKOTAS TO TX... COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF TX -- AS WELL AS STORMS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS -- WILL COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND SEVERITY OF STORMS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF STORMS OVER TX -- DEVELOPING ATTM IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. NAM SHOWS THAT LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL EVOLVE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH MOVES INTO ERN / SERN TX BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL TX DESTABILIZES AGAIN AHEAD OF UPPER FEATURE...ALLOWING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THOUGH NAMKF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN OVERALL SCENARIO...IT MOVES INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN / NERN TX. THIS RESULTS IN NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- ON SRN PERIPHERY OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MEANWHILE...GFS DEVELOPS A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE DAY -- AS OPPOSED TO THE EPISODIC SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE TWO NAM RUNS. OVERALL...UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL TX BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THEREFORE -- AREAS AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION / CLOUD COVER WHICH RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATELY-STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL WIND MAX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL / S TX ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MAXIMUM IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL TX...THOUGH DETAILS IN TIMING / LOCATION AS WELL AS INTENSITY OF SEVERE THREAT WILL OBVIOUSLY DEPEND UPON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS / MO VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH / BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME. GENERALLY WEAKER / MORE SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT LESSER SEVERE THREAT AS COMPARED TO TX. NONETHELESS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER FEATURE. OVERNIGHT...THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE MID / UPPER MS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PAC NW... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WA / ORE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW APPROACHING W COAST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT / SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% HAIL / WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 12:47:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 07:47:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505081257.j48Cv2Jo014524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081254 SWODY1 SPC AC 081253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 20 WSW SJT 40 ENE ABI 25 SSW LTS 50 ENE GAG 35 SW P28 30 SSE HSI 60 SSE 9V9 30 NE PHP 40 ESE Y22 50 NW JMS 20 NE RRT ...CONT... 20 N ELO 55 N EAU OTM 35 E SGF 55 SW JBR 10 SSW MLU BPT 25 SW PSX 40 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ANJ 40 NE MKG 25 SSW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 30 E HEZ 15 SSE 7R4 ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 55 E AMA 25 N LBL 30 SE TAD 50 ENE DRO 40 NNE CNY 55 NNW PUC 30 SW ENV 40 WNW ELY 45 NNE TPH 30 NNW BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 25 SW SCK 40 WSW SAC 60 NNW UKI ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 10 NNE HLN 20 SE BZN 25 S COD 35 ESE RWL 20 NNW CYS 35 NNW BFF 25 WNW REJ 25 NW DIK 70 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PLNS AND LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN BLOCKY BUT SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF BOTH THE PACIFIC NW AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SW TX SHOULD EJECT E/NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THAT STATE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ...REACHING THE TXK AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. FARTHER N...WRN SD UPR LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS E INTO THE HI PLNS. AT THE SURFACE...WRN SD LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL SETTLE GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS S AND E OF THE LOW. ...CNTRL/E TX INTO WRN ARK/LA... SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MCV/ROTATING CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E/ENE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/...SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING UPR LEVEL WIND FIELD/ DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM SW TX IMPULSE. FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS COULD YIELD HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO DESPITE DOMINANT MCS CONVECTIVE MODE E/NE INTO PARTS OF LA/AR. ADDITIONAL STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT INVOF TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS S CNTRL TX. BUT WITH MAIN LLJ LIKELY TO SHIFT NEWD INTO LA/AR...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...OK/KS TO NRN PLNS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT NRN PLNS UPR LOW HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED OVER THE PAST 12 HRS...WITH AN APPARENT TROUGH/LOBE OF ASCENT EXTENDING S INTO ERN CO. THIS LOBE SHOULD ROTATE E ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS TODAY...AND DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SURGE E/SE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB AND KS...AND NW OK. AT THE SAME TIME... SEGMENTED DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE WILL MOVE INTO ERN NEB/KS. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE BOUNDARIES...MODERATE SURFACE HEATING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT AS VORT LOBE OVERSPREADS REGION FROM ERN SD/WRN MN SWD INTO OK. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AND OF VARYING DIRECTION AS BAND OF STRONGEST UPR WINDS REMAINS CONFINED TO TX. BUT SUFFICIENT FLOW WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNTRL/NRN OK INTO ERN KS...AND FROM ERN NEB INTO PARTS OF ERN IA/SW MN. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BOOSTING SBCAPE TO AROUND 1500 IN MN TO 2500 IN OK...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. ...PAC NW... LEE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY...AHEAD OF STRONG UPR LOW APPROACHING THE ORE CST. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION... CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY. THE MEAN FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE MODEST IN DIFFLUENCE ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM OFFSHORE LOW. BUT HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 16:23:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 11:23:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505081632.j48GWvk3005789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081628 SWODY1 SPC AC 081627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPW 40 NNE OMA 25 NE OLU 25 S MHE 35 NW HON 40 ENE MBG 55 WSW JMS 15 NNW TVF 20 NW BJI 30 S AXN SPW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 55 N EAU 30 N IRK 30 ENE SZL 10 E LIT 25 WSW MLU BPT 40 S LRD ...CONT... 50 NW DRT 25 SSW LTS 35 SW P28 30 SSE HSI 25 NE 9V9 30 NNW PHP 15 N Y22 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 35 WSW GTF 15 NE LVM 25 ESE COD 35 SSW CPR 10 SSE CYS 10 SE SNY 35 S REJ 35 ESE SDY 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 75 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG 10 WNW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 40 NE MCB 45 SE HUM ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE FST 20 ENE HOB 30 WNW LBB 45 E AMA 25 WNW GAG 20 N LBL TAD 50 ENE DRO 40 NNE CNY 40 WNW PUC 35 WNW U24 20 SE ELY 40 ENE TPH 15 NE BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 20 WSW SJC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN SD/SERN ND/FAR WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... A LARGE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. BROAD ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER HAS OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 7+ C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...A NARROW AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR /MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F/...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA NWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR LOW CENTER AND SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN SD AND CENTRAL/ERN ND AROUND 18-19Z...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL SD/ERN NEB BY 21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...TORNADOES MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN SD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND BACKS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/SWRN MN/NERN NEB. GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW AND AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS MDT RISK INTO THE MID EVENING OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION. ...KS/WRN MO SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALONG DRY LINE... SEVERE RISK WILL BE PREVALENT...BUT MORE CONDITIONAL SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE TODAY. 12Z ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL OK/KS BETWEEN 21-00Z...WHILE RUC FAILS TO PRODUCE MOIST CONVECTION. PRONOUNCED DRY LINE AND ABUNDANT HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK AND WRN TX. NORTHWEST TX WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE WITH MORE CAPPING AS IT REMAINS INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVELY STABLE AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL TX...AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL OK MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THIS AIR MASS. REGARDLESS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LARGE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ANY STORM WHICH CAN INITIATE WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATING 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE BRIEF WITH STORMS MORE LIKELY CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING NNEWD AWAY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU/SERN KS THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH IT APPEARS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO ERN KS AND WRN/CENTRAL MO...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ...CENTRAL TX... E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WIT A SLOW SWD MOTION STILL OBSERVED. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX ATTM...AND SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX GIVEN FEED OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH MARITIME MOISTURE EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTH TX. MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OUT OF THIS CONVECTION AND SPREAD ESEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT. IF BOUNDARY CAN STALL AND ALLOW STORMS TO BE FED BY VERY WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR...TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE ALONG IT THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CONGEAL ALONG COMMON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEN BOW ECHO SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE NW COAST...THOUGH WEAK IMPULSES APPEAR TO BE EJECTING AND WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ORE AND NWD INTO WA TODAY. CLOUDS REMAIN EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...STORMS WHICH FORM NEAR THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 19:36:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 14:36:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505081946.j48JkkcC018262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081945 SWODY1 SPC AC 081943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SPW 45 NNE OMA 40 ESE OFK 20 NW YKN 25 NNE HON 10 E ABR 30 ENE JMS 30 NW TVF 30 E TVF 30 SE AXN 30 NNE SPW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 55 N EAU 30 N IRK 30 ENE SZL 10 E LIT 25 WSW MLU 20 SSW POE 15 SE BPT ...CONT... 40 SE P07 30 ESE CDS 35 ENE GAG 15 ENE HSI 45 WSW YKN 25 ESE 9V9 25 WNW 9V9 PHP 55 NNW PHP 40 NE REJ 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG 10 WNW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 40 NE MCB 45 SE HUM ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE FST 20 ENE HOB 30 WNW LBB 45 E AMA 25 WNW GAG 20 N LBL TAD 50 ENE DRO 25 ENE U28 35 WSW PUC 30 W U24 40 SSE ELY 40 ENE TPH 15 NE BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 20 WSW SJC ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 35 WSW GTF 15 NE LVM 25 ESE COD 35 SSW CPR 10 SSE CYS 10 SE SNY 35 S REJ 35 ESE SDY 60 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN ND/ERN SD/WRN MN INTO NERN NEB AND NWRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO TX... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM W OF ABR AND MHE SWWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB AND FINALLY INTO NWRN KS. SUBTLE MOISTURE/CLOUD DISCONTINUITY WAS ALSO IDENTIFIED FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT NE OF ABR SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL MN TO S OF MSP. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND NE OF SURFACE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL SD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SEWD ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z ABR AND OAX SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STRONGEST CAPPING CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN NEB. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND INTO WRN MN/IA WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 2500 J/KG. MODESTLY STRONG SWLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KTS LIFTING NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH A GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO MN/IA TONIGHT. ...KS/OK INTO W-CNTRL/NRN TX... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DRYLINE FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT NW OF ICT SWWD INTO SWRN OK NEAR LTS AND INTO W-CNTRL TX W OF SJT. TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG SRN PORTION OF DRYLINE OVER W-CNTRL/NWRN TX WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ERODED CAP. INSOLATION IN WAKE OF THICKER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING TO THE E HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY E OF DRYLINE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ZONE OF IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL TX SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CURRENT STORMS NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL OK. FARTHER N...IT APPEARS THAT SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH HAS STARTED TO INITIATE TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER N-CNTRL INTO CNTRL KS. INSPECTION OF REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF 25-30 KTS/ FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...SRN/SERN TX... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM N OF COT TO SW OF HOU. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. AXIS OF LOCALLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS IS RESULTING IN 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH ENVIRONMENT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY SAG SWD INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ...ERN ORE/WA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ... TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ORE INTO ID THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA COAST. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 00:58:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 19:58:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505090108.j49185gU012752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090105 SWODY1 SPC AC 090103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE RRT 40 SW EAU 30 NE LWD 35 NW FYV 50 SSW HRO 50 NNW LIT 35 N ELD 40 E DAL 30 ENE SAT 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 SSE DRT 20 SSE ABI 30 NW MWL 25 NE CSM 35 NW END 35 W HUT 40 S SUX 25 ESE ABR 30 SSW JMS 25 NE BIS 75 NNE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MFE 50 N MFE 30 SW ALI 15 SW ALI 30 E CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW FCA 20 E LVM 30 SW CPR CYS 15 W FCL 50 NE CAG 20 W BPI 45 W VEL 25 NNW U24 50 NNE ELY 40 ENE U31 40 SSE NFL 20 SE FAT 35 WSW MER 50 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE ANJ 25 NW MBL LAF 40 NW HOP 20 SSE MEM 30 SW GWO 15 NNW MCB 45 SE HUM ...CONT... 10 NW DRT 55 SSW LTS 25 WNW GAG 25 NNE LBL 25 SE HLC 20 SSW OLU 25 NNW OFK 30 NNW BBW 30 ENE CDR 10 S RAP 40 WNW Y22 70 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN TO CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS DEEP S TX... ...THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / MN SWD THROUGH TX... NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG / LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / SWRN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL / S TX...AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED N-S TROUGH / DRYLINE. AIRMASS AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH WIDESPREAD 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. THOUGH LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MANY AREAS...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE SLOWLY DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF STORM INTENSITY / SEVERITY. MUCH OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED...AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING / SLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...STRONG / SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST -- MAINLY WHERE POCKETS OF CONVECTIVELY-UNCONTAMINATED AIR REMAIN...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER VORT MAX. THOUGH TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED OVERALL...HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONGER / MORE PERSISTENT AREAS OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OTHER SPC CONVECTIVE PRODUCTS. ..GOSS.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 05:42:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 00:42:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505090552.j495qUZK030679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090550 SWODY1 SPC AC 090548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N APN 20 W DAY 25 SE SDF 10 WNW HOP 25 ESE LIT 30 ESE PGO 15 W MKO 40 S CNU 50 NNE JLN 20 SW BRL 20 SE LSE 55 NW EAU 65 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 25 NW LWT 55 SSW MLS 45 SE REJ 50 S 9V9 35 SSE YKN 15 WSW FOD 15 SSW FRM 15 WSW RWF ATY 25 WSW ABR 50 ESE BIS 35 WSW DVL 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 40 E TRI 20 SW AHN PFN ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... DRT 10 NW ABI 30 NNE CDS 35 SSE LBL 50 E LAA 45 SSE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 40 E DRA 60 W DRA 40 SSE FAT MRY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE STRONGER / CLOSED LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WRN CONUS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES...WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY -- EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS -- SHOULD WEAKEN / RETURN NWD ACROSS KS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST AHEAD OF CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM...LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY AHEAD OF WRN UPPER LOW. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE OZARKS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INVOF SURFACE LOW / VORT MAX FORECAST OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. NAM / NAMKF ALSO SUGGEST STORMS WELL E OF FRONT INTO IL / INDIANA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN IA / WRN IL. THOUGH THIS ONGOING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING / DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS...UPPER 50S / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE AMPLE HEATING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED INVOF COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS INDIANA BY AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM IL / IN NWD SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH A COMBINATION OF SMALL-SCALE LINEAR CLUSTERS AS WELL AS MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS ANTICIPATED. THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- WITH GREATEST THREAT ATTM EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF WI / WRN UPPER MI WHERE MORE FAVORABLY-BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED. FURTHER S ACROSS THE OZARKS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...WITH MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY -- UP TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION / OH VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWLY-DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...KS / OK / ERN HALF OF TX... WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS KS / INTO OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN / DRIFT BACK NWD TOWARD KS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL TX. NAM / NAMKF SHOW A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND MAIN TROUGH FURTHER E...WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG FRONT / DRYLINE MAY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THE PRIMARY QUESTION...MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. WITH AROUND 30 KT MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW EXPECTED...CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ATTM...WILL CARRY ONLY CONDITIONAL / 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORM INITIATION BECOME MORE APPARENT IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED -- MAINLY FOR THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ...ID / THE GREAT BASIN REGION... MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LOW. THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED STORMS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...MARGINAL HAIL OR A LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..GOSS.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 12:49:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 07:49:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505091259.j49Cx88w005741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091257 SWODY1 SPC AC 091255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N APN 20 ESE MIE 25 SE SDF 10 WNW HOP 15 WSW PBF 40 NW TXK 15 N MLC 40 S CNU 50 NNE JLN 20 SW BRL 20 SE LSE 25 SW DLH 80 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 10 NW ABI 30 NNE CDS 35 SSE LBL 50 E LAA 45 SSE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 40 E DRA 60 W DRA 40 SSE FAT MRY ...CONT... 80 ENE 63S 25 NW LWT 55 SSW MLS 45 SE REJ 50 S 9V9 35 SSE YKN 30 SE FOD 15 NNW MCW 20 NW MKT 30 ESE ATY 15 NNE ABR 15 E JMS 35 WNW GFK 80 N GFK ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 40 E TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR GRT LKS...MS VLY AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE LWR 48 TODAY AS LOW OFF THE NRN CA CST MOVES E INTO NW NV AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. DEAMPLIFIES. THE NRN MEMBER OF THE LATTER FEATURE...THE UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN SD...SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS MN/NRN WI AND UPR MI DURING THE PERIOD AS IT BECOMES RE-ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW NEAR TXK WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM SD SYSTEM AND SHOULD REACH NRN AL BY 12Z TUESDAY. FEATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AT LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE LOW AND POORLY DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND WEAKEN. A NEW FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SET UP ALONG A MORE W-TO-E AXIS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... COMBINATION OF MODEST SURFACE HEATING...CONVERGENCE INVOF MN SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SEGMENTS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING UPR LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN MOIST AXIS OVER MN/WI/UPR MI AND NRN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN DRIER BUT SOMEWHAT MORE STRONGLY HEATED ENVIRONMENT FARTHER E ACROSS WRN LWR MI AND PERHAPS NRN IND. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED /MLCAPE BLO 1000 J PER KG/. BUT WITH 30+ KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY INCLUDE A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR STATIONARY FRONT COULD YIELD A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THREAT IN NRN/WRN WI AND WRN UPR MI. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF UPR IMPULSE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. ...MID MS VLY/OZARKS... CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM VORT WILL DELAY ONSET SURFACE HEATING OVER PARTS OF AR/MO AND CNTRL/SRN IL TODAY. BUT WITH GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N...MODERATE INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP OVER REGION LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH 30-35 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. A FACTOR THAT MAY MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS FACT THAT REGION LIKELY BE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM VORT. ...KS/OK/ERN TX HALF OF TX... WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW IN KS WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NWD LATER TODAY...WHILE DRYLINE REMAINS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY SWD ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX. VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT ATTM OVER S TX AND THE NWRN GULF...S OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S MCS. PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ACROSS E TX ATTM. THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TODAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM VORT. BUT SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY...MAY WEAKEN STOUT CAP AND ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND LOW CLOUDS NOW PRESENT WILL DELAY SURFACE HEATING...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND A TORNADO GIVEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG AND 35+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR. PARTS OF E TX/ERN OK AND PERHAPS SE KS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...GRT BASIN... MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING E AHEAD OF OFFSHORE UPR LOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER NV...AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. BUT MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 16:15:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 11:15:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505091625.j49GPMpv006867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091618 SWODY1 SPC AC 091616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE AUS 20 NNW COT 50 ESE DRT 50 NNE DRT 20 SE ABI 25 SSE LTS 10 E FSI 10 NE ADM 15 S DUA 65 E ACT 40 ESE AUS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT 45 NW POE 15 NNE HOT 20 NE MKO 20 WNW TUL 30 W CNU SZL BRL 20 ESE LSE 15 NW EAU DLH 40 ESE ELO 90 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 S ANJ 25 WSW MBS 15 N MIE 40 SE BMG BWG 25 NNW MSL 20 W MEI 30 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... DRT 25 NNE SJT 45 NNW ABI 25 ESE CDS 25 ESE GAG 40 ENE DDC 60 N GCK 40 ESE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 40 E DRA 60 W DRA 40 SSE FAT MRY ...CONT... 50 WNW HVR 35 E LWT 45 NW PIR 20 NNW MHE 25 SE ATY 45 SW FAR 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 40 E TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL TX AND FAR SRN OK... ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWWD NRN IL... STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW NEWD MOTION INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SURGE NEWD INTO WRN WI AND ESEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NRN EXTENT OF A NARROW AXIS OF LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND OVERALL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WI AND THE U.P OF MI...STRONG ASCENT AND LIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES WITH THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS SLY LLJ INCREASES ACROSS LAKE MI AND WRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING...STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INCREASE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NERN OK/SERN KS... WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY DELAY OR INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. HOWEVER STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING MLCAPE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND QUICKLY GO SEVERE AFTER 21Z. THOUGH SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL THE MID EVENING. ...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. LEADING IMPULSE IS SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY IMPULSE IS STILL OVER AR WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD TODAY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM SHV INDICATED MID LEVELS WERE QUITE COLD /I.E. H5 TEMPS NEAR -16C/...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING...OVERALL STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE CURRENT STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN TN/MS AND SERN LA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. SHOULD SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCUR IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO SRN AR/NRN LA WITH TRAILING SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALSO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN OK/RED RIVER VALLEY SWD INTO CENTRAL TX... SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DRY LINE WILL BECOME WELL DEFINED AS STRONG MIXING OCCURS OVER WRN TX TODAY. AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND LIMITS COVERAGE/POTENTIAL ALONG DRY LINE TODAY. HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL TX WHERE RICH MARITIME AIR WILL BE FOUND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE. IN ADDITION...15-20 KT OF WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIR. GIVEN LACK OF INHIBITION...CONVERGENCE AND MIXING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH CAN INITIATE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER STEEP AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ID/WRN UT LATER TODAY. MODEST HEATING AND PRESENCE OF 45-50F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD THEREFORE SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT AND RATHER STRONG SHEAR...AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THEY SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 20:15:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 15:15:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505092025.j49KPNdI001269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092013 SWODY1 SPC AC 092011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE AUS 10 SSE HDO 40 W HDO 40 WSW JCT 15 SSE ABI 25 SW SPS 15 E SPS 40 SW ADM 25 N DAL 25 ENE ACT 30 SE AUS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 15 S ELD 60 E FSM 35 NW FSM 45 ENE TUL 30 SE CNU 25 SE SZL 15 W UIN 50 W LNR 60 NE MSP DLH 40 ESE ELO 75 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 S ANJ 30 W HTL 35 SSW SBN 20 W BMG 35 SW OWB 45 NW MSL 35 NW LUL 30 S HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... 50 WNW DRT 20 NNW SJT 40 WNW ABI 30 WSW LTS 25 ESE GAG 40 ENE DDC 60 N GCK 40 ESE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 30 NNE LAS 60 W DRA 45 ENE PRB 45 SSE MRY ...CONT... 50 WNW HVR 35 E LWT 45 NW PIR 20 NNW MHE 25 SE ATY 45 SW FAR 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 20 SSE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL TX... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY AREAS... SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY FROM 30 TO 35 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...BUT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE UNSTABLE WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM 35-40 KT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS LA AND AR...AND A VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH AR. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ERN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP FROM ERN AR SWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA AND MAY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...TX... SURFACE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING INTO TX IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SANDERSON NEWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO TO NEAR ABILENE. WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATED BEHIND THE DRYLINE...CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN TX WWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...THEN WWD WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN JUNCTION AND ABILENE...AND THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A STORM CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR LLANO. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ...NRN UT...SERN ID THROUGH WRN WY... SEE SWOMCD 794 FOR A DISCUSSION ON THIS AREA. ...CA... SEE SWOMCD 793 FOR A DISCUSSION ON THIS AREA. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 00:54:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 19:54:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505100103.j4A13xUQ009485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100101 SWODY1 SPC AC 100059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE AUS 10 ESE HDO 40 WNW HDO 10 SW JCT 30 SSE ABI 20 SSE MWL 30 N DAL 40 E DAL 60 E ACT 10 SE AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 ESE SHV 35 SE GGG 55 E CLL 30 NNE VCT 30 WSW NIR 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 SE P07 20 WSW ABI 25 W ADM 25 WNW FSM 15 NW JLN 25 SE RSL 35 N GLD 40 ESE CYS 45 WSW CAG 35 NNE MLF 25 N ELY 60 W DRA 25 NNW BFL 45 SSE MRY ...CONT... 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW BIL 55 WSW MBG 30 ESE MHE 25 NE OTG 20 SE FAR 30 E RRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 ENE LEX 45 SSE MSL 35 SSE JAN 40 E MSY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX... ...CENTRAL TX... AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST / UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. TWO LARGE SUPERCELLS -- BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT MEMBERS OF A PRIOR STORM SPLIT -- ALONG WITH A FEW DEVELOPING CELLS IN THE VICINITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THIS MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / FRONT. THOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL OR AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO -- MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS MORE ACROSS THIS REGION...OVERALL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION CONTINUES. ...WRN AND CENTRAL WY AND VICINITY... DATA SUGGESTS THAT DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE INTERIOR ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITY IN GENERAL OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A LOW-END HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY... MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL -- FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- ESPECIALLY FURTHER S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY -- SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ..GOSS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 05:58:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 00:58:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505100608.j4A680Bl021987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100605 SWODY1 SPC AC 100603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SNY 50 WNW BFF 35 WNW CDR 40 WNW VTN 15 SW OTG 40 WNW LNR 25 SSW MSN 20 N MMO 20 N SPI 25 S UIN 20 NW FNB 40 SSW IML 20 S SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 35 NNE SGF 25 ESE CNU 25 ESE PNC 35 NNE FSI 30 SSW ABI 35 WSW JCT 70 W COT ...CONT... 95 SSE MRF 35 SE CNM 35 E TCC 45 N DDC 25 WNW HLC 25 NW GLD 20 SSW DEN 30 ENE GUC 20 ESE CEZ 60 SE PGA 40 NNE IGM 15 NNW DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 55 NNE MSP 10 SE GRR 30 W HTL 20 S ESC 20 SW MQT 40 NNE CMX ...CONT... 30 N PBG 10 SSE BGM 20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 30 N DAB 20 SW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEB / IA AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGE UPPER LOW / TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN WITH TIME...DIVIDING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS AND NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF 1035 MB HIGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THIS STRENGTHENING / QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...NEB / IA AND VICINITY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW / BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF NEB AND IA NEAR AND S OF FRONT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN WY / WRN NEB JUST N OF FRONT / LOW IN ELY UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS PARTS OF NEB / IA IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST N OF FRONT. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE / SUPERCELLULAR...AS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STORM NEAR / JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT. OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION INCREASES INVOF SHARPENING FRONT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST / SHIFT EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS. ...FAR SERN NM / TRANSPECOS / SOUTH PLAINS OF TX... THOUGH INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SREF GUIDANCE HINTS THAT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG DRYLINE...FORECAST TO MIX EWD TO A POSITION FROM JUST W OF CDS TO JUST E OF BGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR INITIATION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. ASSUMING INITIATION OCCURS...MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INITIATION. ...ERN UT / WY / WRN CO... MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS MID-LEVELS COOL / UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY EXPECTED ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE HAIL / WIND PROBABILITIES. ..GOSS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 12:27:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 07:27:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505101236.j4ACawAW004678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101234 SWODY1 SPC AC 101232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N AKO 30 WNW BFF 35 WNW CDR 40 WNW VTN 15 SW OTG 45 S RST 15 NE DBQ 10 WNW MLI 20 SW BRL 30 S IRK 40 SW FNB 40 SSW IML 30 N AKO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BGS 35 W LBB 30 NW AMA 20 S LBL 50 WSW P28 25 E CSM ABI 35 NNE SJT 25 SSW BGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 10 SSE BGM 20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 S DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 SE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG SGF 30 WSW JLN 55 WSW TUL SPS 25 W BWD 15 SSW JCT 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 SE GDP 40 N TCC 40 WSW GCK 50 S GLD 20 ESE LIC 10 SSW COS 25 S ALS 45 ESE FMN 10 E GCN 40 NNE IGM 15 NNW DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 55 NNE MSP 10 SE GRR 30 W HTL 20 S ESC 20 SW MQT 40 NNE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MUCH OF NEB AND IA INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND NRN KS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON/NRN CA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM INCLUDING ONE OVER CA EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE BAJA SPUR. MODELS SEEM UNSURE ABOUT THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE...BUT EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE IT FROM UT SEWD INTO EXTREME W TX BY 2100Z. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SERN IA AND NWRN MO AND CONTINUING AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NERN CO. SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SWRN NEB SSEWD NEAR GCK/DDC AND GAG SWWD THROUGH INK. THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS IN TWO PLACES...THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB AND THE DRYLINE LACED THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. ...NEB EWD THROUGH PARTS OF IA...NRN KS AND NRN MO... EASY TO SEE THAT THE MODELS FOCUS ON THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE 00Z AND 06Z ETA/NAM AND THE GFS ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FLOW NWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE 35-45 KT /WITH THE ETA/NAM INCREASING TO 50-55 KT TONIGHT/ ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOW OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD AS THE WRN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EWD PROVIDING WSWLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS AND PROVIDING INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AIR MASS IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE ETA CAPES REACHING 4000 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE KS/NEB BORDER BY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CO/WY WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SEVERE OVER PARTS OF WRN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR REGIME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0-3KM HELICITY SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NEB INTO IA AS MCS ROLLS EWD JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO PARTS OF WRN OK... INTERESTING SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX INTO WRN OK IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. MODELS SEEM TO DIFFER IN WHERE THIS DRYLINE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NWD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER WRN TX WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE ISODROSOTHERMS BETWEEN PVW AND LBB AS WELL AS EXTREME WRN OK. MODELS INDICATE 20-25 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW AND 35-40 KT 850 MB FLOW THROUGH THIS REGION INDICATING THAT THE ETA/NAM AND ETAKF/NAMKF HAVE GENERAL IDEA THAT BRING LOW 60 SURFACE DEW POINT NWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED GIVING MUCAPE VALUES TO 4500 J/KG...BUT WITH THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING 25 TO 45 KT...MLCAPES SHOULD BE 3000-4000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/JUST E OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 30-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW GLANCES BY THE REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORMS CAN PROPAGATE OFF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND MOVE INTO WRN OK. HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS ACTIVITY WILL GO IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ..MCCARTHY/GUYER.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 16:25:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 11:25:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505101635.j4AGZEOf015673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101630 SWODY1 SPC AC 101628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SUX 15 SSW MCW 40 W CID 25 SW DSM 10 E LNK 25 NNE GRI 30 WNW OFK 30 NNW SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CNM 40 SSW CVS 25 SE DHT 20 S LBL 50 WSW P28 20 ENE CSM 30 SSE BGS 25 S INK 30 ENE CNM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CHA 25 W HKY 35 W SOP 35 SSW FLO 10 SSW SAV 10 SE AYS 20 SSW VLD 15 ENE PFN 55 NNE MOB 25 WNW MEI 20 W CBM 25 N BHM 25 NE CHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE IML 20 NW IML 50 SW MHN 15 SE ANW 10 SSW FRM 20 E VOK 20 NW MKE 20 S CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 WNW FNB 25 ESE MCK 15 SE IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 20 SSE ROW 45 NNE CAO 15 W TAD 60 WSW FMN 20 NNW LAS 60 SSW DRA 20 S NID 45 SE FAT 30 ESE SCK 25 SW TVL 20 E RNO 70 WNW WMC 40 NNE BOI 20 WSW BTM 15 ESE MLS 50 NNW ABR 25 NNE STC 40 WNW CWA 15 SSW OSH 20 E MKE 10 NNE GRR 15 NE MBS ...CONT... 20 NNW PBG 45 N MSV 45 S RIC 10 ESE ILM ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 45 N PIE ...CONT... 40 W BVE 25 SSE GWO 30 W MKL 35 NNE PAH 20 SW HUF 15 ESE CMI 30 SSE PIA 20 NNW UIN 45 S P35 25 E EMP 25 W PNC 30 NNE FSI 30 SW BWD 20 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB INTO IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB INTO SRN WI/NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN IA WSWWD ACROSS SRN NEB THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN STALLED...IF NOT LIFT A BIT NWD OVER ERN NEB AND IA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS SEEMS REASONABLE ACROSS WARM SECTOR...SUGGESTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAKENING OF CAP AND CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z-00Z ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT. EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SLY LLJ INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA BY LATE TODAY WOULD SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF FRONT AND 40+ KT ALONG AND NORTH SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ANY STORM WHICH CAN ROOT NEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EVENING WHICH COULD BE QUITE STRONG. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING AS 50+ KT LLJ DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL/ERN NEB EWD ACROSS MUCH OF IA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. IF STORMS ROOT NEAR THE FRONT THEN A BOW ECHO SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE EWD ACROSS IA AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN WI/NRN IL LATE TONIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS A SEVERE MCS WITH AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT ALONG NOSE OF VEERING LLJ. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SLGT RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS AREA WITH 12Z MODELS BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE IN ERODING SUBSTANTIAL COOL/STABLE AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALMOST ALL WRN NEB AND ERN WY. GIVEN EXTENT OF STRATUS AND STRENGTH OF ENELY SFC WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RECOVERY /IF ANY/ WILL OCCUR NORTH OF CURRENT FRONT LOCATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN WY/NRN CO MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT IS MORE LIKELY EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT NEARER MOIST AXIS WHERE STRONGER HEATING AND SLY LLJ INCREASE LATER TODAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE CENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO FAR SWRN TX BY LATE TODAY. ETA AND ETAKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED BY 21Z EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK AND INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING AND CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP. STRONG MIXING EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND WILL LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXTREME INSTABILITY WARRANTS MENTION OF VERY LARGE HAIL. BRIEF TORNADO WINDOW MAY INCREASE NEAR SUNSET...JUST PRIOR TO DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...AS MODELS INCREASE SLY LLJ AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH BETWEEN 00-03Z. ...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ILL-DEFINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP OVER A LARGE AREA WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AOB -14C AT MOB/TAE/FFC. GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INHIBITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE AREA. PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEARER THE LOW CENTER MOVING OVER NRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR...YET STILL SUPPORTIVE OF...MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 20:15:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 15:15:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505102025.j4AKP03A032538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102012 SWODY1 SPC AC 102010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SUX 15 SSW MCW 40 W CID 25 SW DSM 10 E LNK 25 NNE GRI 30 WNW OFK 30 NNW SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CDS 35 SE BGS 40 ESE FST 15 WNW MRF 35 ESE GDP 10 ESE CNM 60 N HOB 25 SE DHT 15 SSW LBL 45 WSW P28 30 ESE CSM 60 SE CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HLC 10 SSE GLD 30 ESE LIC 35 ENE DEN 50 NW AKO 25 SW MHN 45 ENE ANW 25 E FSD 20 E VOK 20 NW MKE 20 S CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 NW FNB 35 NNW HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PNS 40 ESE LUL 25 NNW MEI 25 W CBM 50 ENE CBM 25 NE GAD 40 E RMG 55 NW AND 30 NW HKY 45 W GSO 25 SSE FAY 35 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 NE SSI 35 WSW JAX 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BVE 25 SSE GWO 30 W MKL 35 NNE PAH 20 SW HUF 15 ESE CMI 30 SSE PIA 20 NNW UIN 45 S P35 25 E EMP 25 W PNC 30 NNE FSI 30 SW BWD 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 50 WSW MRF 20 SSE ROW 50 N CAO 15 W TAD 60 WSW FMN 20 NNW LAS 60 SSW DRA 20 S NID 45 SE FAT 30 ESE SCK 25 SW TVL 20 E RNO 70 WNW WMC 40 NNE BOI 20 WSW BTM 15 ESE MLS 50 NNW ABR 25 NNE STC 50 WNW AUW 30 NE GRB 35 S MBL 10 NNE GRR 15 NE MBS ...CONT... 20 NNW PBG 45 N MSV 50 WSW ORF 30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 45 N PIE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO/NEB INTO SRN WI/NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH... ...NERN CO ACROSS NEB TO IA AND SWRN GREAT LAKES... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WAS RETREATING NWD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND SWRN IA...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL. ADDITONAL CU DEVELOPMENT WAS LOCATED ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS THE STRONGEST. STRONG CAP PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SERN NEB COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP OVER THIS REGION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...THEN THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 35-50 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ WILL BE LIKELY WITH SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS IS LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/ERN NEB SPREADING EWD INTO IA AND POTENTIALLY SRN WI/NRN IL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREATS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER NERN CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... VIS IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED CU/TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS W CENTRAL TX TO NORTHWEST OF CDS...AND ALSO OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED DECREASING MLCIN VALUES WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE DRY LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W TX ATTM...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT EXPECTED TO AID IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 35-40 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PER TCU AND WHITE SANDS WIND PROFILER DATA SPREADING NEWD ATOP S/SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG/E OF DRY LINE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE WITHIN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS A SSELY LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TX FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET. ...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -16C AT 500 MB PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/ WITH MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF AL EWD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONTINUED PULSE TYPE STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN GA INTO SC AND SRN NC. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 01:05:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 20:05:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505110115.j4B1FKLa029429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110111 SWODY1 SPC AC 110109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BUB 25 SE SUX 30 SSW FOD 15 NNW DSM 30 SSE DSM 15 N LWD LNK 40 N HLC 35 ENE MCK 30 ESE BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW HLC 10 SSE GLD 35 NNE COS 10 E 4FC 25 N LAR 55 SW MHN 50 WNW OFK 30 W SPW 35 SSE LSE 25 W MKE 20 S CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 NW FNB 25 NNW HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 35 SE MRF 30 W INK 40 S CVS 35 SSE DHT 20 SSW LBL 30 SSE DDC 25 NNW P28 25 ENE P28 35 SE P28 50 NE CSM 55 SSE CDS 35 E BGS 70 ENE P07 40 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EFK 20 N PHL 30 W RIC 15 SSE ROA 25 WSW RDU 30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 15 S SSI 35 SE VLD 25 S MAI 35 WNW PNS 40 NE MOB 60 NE MOB 25 NNE VLD 35 WNW AYS 35 NNE MGM 55 WNW CHA 40 ESE BWG 20 NW HTS 15 NE PIT 35 NNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 15 WSW CNM 70 SW TCC 20 ESE RTN LHX 20 WNW COS 25 E 4BL 60 SSE PGA 25 S LAS 35 WSW TPH 25 SW TVL 45 NNE SAC 20 W SVE 40 NW SUN 25 NNW MQM 25 N SHR 55 N DGW 30 NNE CDR 9V9 20 NE ATY 25 WNW MSP 20 N OSH 20 WSW GRR 40 NE DAY 30 NNW SDF 35 NE ALN 20 WSW UIN 45 S P35 20 ENE EMP 25 W PNC 20 NNW FSI 35 NNW JCT 45 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NEB / SWRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO / SERN WY ENEWD INTO FAR SRN WI / NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX BIG BEND NNEWD INTO WRN OK / S CENTRAL KS... ...NERN CO / SERN WY ENEWD INTO FAR SERN WI / NRN IL... THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO / SERN WY...WHILE MORE ISOLATED / LARGE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL NEB EWD INTO WRN IA. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND 35 TO 40 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SLY / SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ATTM. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF NEB INTO SWRN IA ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE GREATEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE / LOW-LEVEL HELICITY EXISTS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY INTO THIS REGION. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN MCS WHICH MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN NEB / IA...AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN IL LATE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ...SERN NM / TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX NNEWD INTO WRN OK / SRN KS... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM THE BIG BEND / TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX NNEWD INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...AIDED BY SELY INFLUX OF HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR /40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS/...EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN TROUGH. ...GA / SC AND VICINITY... LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION -- WHICH DEVELOPED INVOF UPPER LOW -- TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. IN THE MEAN TIME...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS / STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 06:04:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 01:04:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505110614.j4B6EK7K032439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110610 SWODY1 SPC AC 110608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE STJ 10 S FLV 35 SSE RSL 40 ENE DDC 25 SSW DDC 30 SW GCK 35 SW MCK 30 SSW LBF 15 S EAR BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLD 50 NW GLD 25 SSW SNY 35 WNW BUB 10 WNW SUX 15 NW RFD 35 WSW CLE 20 NW PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 W HTS BMG 35 NNE SZL 35 SW EMP 20 SE CSM 40 NW ABI 50 S LBB GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PNS 40 SSW GWO 45 WSW MEM 20 ESE POF 20 NE VIH 45 SSE OJC 45 NE OKC 50 WNW MWL 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 85 S MRF 50 NNW HOB 20 WNW EHA 20 NW LAA 50 W COS 10 SW DRO 40 W U17 50 W MLF 50 SSW ENV 30 S SUN 30 SSE MQM 10 SSW WRL 55 S GCC 45 S Y22 35 ESE MKT 80 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEB / NRN AND WRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW / TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME...WITH MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- FORECAST OVER ERN CO / WRN KS THROUGH THE DAY -- SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY -- WHICH WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED BY PERSISTENT / ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NEB -- SHOULD REMAIN INVOF THE KS / NEB BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD AGAIN MIX EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER E...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND / SWD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE ERN EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE FRONT MARKING THE SEWD EXTENT OF COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 1040 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES / WRN OK... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB / IA IN REGION OF WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SHARP SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY...AS AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARY BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW S OF BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG FROM THE S...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR LOW OR ALONG ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WARM FRONT DRYLINE WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS WRN KS AND VICINITY...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED. WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS INITIALLY. AS THESE STORMS SHIFT NEWD AND ENCOUNTER GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE. TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKEWISE BE GREATER WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THEN SHIFT EWD ALONG OR ENEWD ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT. OVERALL HOWEVER...WITH FRONT LIKELY BEING REINFORCED WITH COOL / STABLE AIR BY ONGOING CONVECTION N OF FRONT...A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST. OTHER / MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS WRN OK / WRN N TX. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...FLOW WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS / LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. STORMS / ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ACROSS KS AND PERHAPS INTO NRN MO / IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MIDWEST / OH VALLEY REGION... CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW EVOLVING OVER IA MAY BE MOVING ACROSS IL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS -- THE MID / UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE REMAINING MORE STATIONARY FURTHER WWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. AS AIRMASS ALONG / S OF BOUNDARY BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF IL MAY BE SUSTAINED AS IS SHIFTS EWD / ESEWD INVOF BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL / SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY EXIST SHOULD AN MCS INDEED SURVIVE THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ONGOING MCS...ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY STILL POSE A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ...FL... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SSEWD ACROSS GA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE ERN FL COAST THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH WEAKLY-ENHANCED MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FL...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL / WIND EVENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 12:15:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 07:15:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505111225.j4BCPEu1012524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111223 SWODY1 SPC AC 111221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE STJ 10 S FLV 10 WSW HUT 30 NE GAG 55 N CDS DHT 50 WSW GLD 30 NE IML 15 S EAR BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CAO 15 SSE LIC 25 SSW SNY 35 WNW BUB 30 S SUX 30 SSW RFD 30 E FWA 20 NW PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 W HTS 50 N EVV 40 WSW JEF 35 SW EMP 20 SE CSM 45 W ABI 20 SE HOB 10 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA ...CONT... 30 SSE MOB 15 SSW MEI 10 WSW TUP 15 SSE POF 25 SSE TBN 30 NW JLN 50 E OKC MWL 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 60 SSE MRF 20 SW CVS 35 WNW CAO 20 N TAD 15 N ALS 10 SW DRO 40 W U17 50 W MLF 50 SSW ENV BYI 10 E IDA COD 40 NE SHR 45 SSE Y22 40 SSE MSP 40 NE MTC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO MUCH OF KS AND EXTREME SRN NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NV/UT BORDER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD INTO UT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER WRN WY DURING THE PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT MCS OVER IA/IL HAS PLACED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN MO AND NRN KS. MODELS VARY A BIT ON WHAT SURFACE LOW OVER CO WILL DO TODAY...EITHER MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL KS OR LEAVING IT IN E CENTRAL/SERN CO. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN NRN KS...AND AGAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER SWD ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. ...CENTRAL PLAINS FROM KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 40-50 KT LLJ FROM TX THROUGH KS ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LYING E-W ACROSS NRN KS. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPE ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG TODAY...WITH SOME APPROACHING 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO INTO W CENTRAL IL. ANALYSIS OF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WITH EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 300 M2/S2. THUS...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE FORECAST OF 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 250 M2/S2 INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF NRN KS AND EXTREME SRN NEB. GIVEN ALSO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MANY OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SWD FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE. MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE N-S OVER ERN CO AS MID LEVEL JET OF 60-65 KT WILL BE OVER NERN NM INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. WHAT IS SUBTLE ACROSS THIS AREA IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 30-40 KT WLY TO SWLY WINDS THAT WILL RUN FROM EXTREME NRN MEXICO INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL OK PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE DRYLINE. THIS SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE ONCE AGAIN TODAY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...MO RIVER VALLEY EWD THRU MID MS VALLEY INTO OHIO... ISOLATED BOW ECHO NOW MOVING THRU NERN IL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS IN INTO WRN OH ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO MO/IL ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. ...FL... LATEST LIGHTNING LOOP SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED OFFSHORE OF GA/NERN FL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL GA/SC. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN FL ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/MODEST LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. ..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 16:17:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 11:17:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505111626.j4BGQi0S030136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111620 SWODY1 SPC AC 111618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N FNB 25 E STJ MKC 10 WSW HUT 25 NNE GAG 60 N CDS 35 ENE AMA 50 NW GCK 25 SSW MCK 25 ENE HSI 25 N FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE DHT 15 NNE LAA 35 SW IML 30 ENE LBF 35 S SUX 35 WSW MMO 40 NNW FWA 20 NW PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 WSW HTS 15 ESE EVV 15 W VIH 45 SSW EMP 30 NNW END 45 NE CSM 25 S LTS 30 N ABI 50 WSW ABI 30 WNW BGS 25 NNE DHT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MLB 40 SW ORL 40 SSE CTY 35 NNW CTY 35 SSW AYS 30 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 10 NE TCC 35 E TAD 20 SW PUB 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN 15 SSW MQM 25 E SHR 30 E PIR 10 SE RST 65 N MTC ...CONT... 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX/WRN KS EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN GA AND FL... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...EAST OF AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER UT THIS MORNING. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY STRONG COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD OUT OF E-CENTRAL NEB INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NWRN KS/ERN CO...WITH LOW CENTER NEAR GLD AT 15Z. EAST OF THIS LOW...OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION...DRY LINE WILL BECOME WELL DEFINED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN KS INTO THE CENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLES AND THE WEST TX PLAINS LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ...THOUGH ADEQUATE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... REMAINS A BIT DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. EXCEPTION IS INTO ERN KS/FAR NWRN MO WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MAY HOLD. STILL EXPECT MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SURVIVE DEEP MIXING JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO NERN KS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. SHOULD HEATING ERODE CAP ACROSS FAR SRN IA/NRN MO THIS MORNING...SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. WITH NO WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM EVIDENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...EXPECT STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE CAP EROSION AND RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE AND NEAR LOW CENTER BETWEEN 20-22Z. OTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND FAR SRN NEB INTO NWRN MO LATER TODAY. COLLOCATION OF 40-50 KT SLY LLJ UNDER 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES. MOST LIKELY AREA OF TORNADOES SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN KS AND WITH ANY STORM WHICH CAN REMAIN ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB/NWRN MO. WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT THIS MORNING ON JTN PROFILER THAN FORECAST /I.E. 40 KT AT 6 KM/...SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS ALONG SRN PORTION OF DRY LINE AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY INTO THE MID/LATE EVENING. MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS WRN/NRN KS AND LIFT NWD INTO NEB TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. ...IL INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND ENEWD AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES STATES. LEADING MCS HAS WEAKENED OVER MI...THOUGH TRAILING OUTFLOW MAY INITIATE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER IND AND NWRN OH AS STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. AREA VWPS AND WOLCOTT/IND PROFILER INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SRN EXTENT OF THIS STRONGER WLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL IL/IND AND OH THROUGH THE DAY AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH ANY ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SECOND MID LEVEL SYSTEM NOW LIFTING INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO MAY ALSO DEVELOP CONVECTION...POSSIBLE MCS...WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND INCREASE WIND POTENTIAL IF HEATING CAN ERODE CAP NEAR E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY. ...SRN GA INTO FL... MODEST NWLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION TODAY...IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW NOW ALONG THE GA COAST. SHOULD SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INITIATE STORMS...THEY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 816 FOR FURTHER DETAILS/. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 20:18:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 15:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505112028.j4BKSZUc001463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112018 SWODY1 SPC AC 112017 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE FNB 30 E STJ 10 SE MKC 15 WNW HUT 25 NNE GAG 60 N CDS 35 ENE AMA 45 SSE GLD 10 S MCK 40 ESE GRI 30 NNE FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CAO 45 S LAA 35 S PUB DEN 40 SE AKO 35 SW IML 30 ENE LBF 35 S SUX 50 ESE MMO 30 WSW TOL 15 W YNG 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 50 W HTS 10 SE EVV 25 ENE CGI 50 SSE SZL 45 SSW EMP 30 WNW PNC 30 W END 25 S LTS 10 W ABI 40 ENE BGS 30 WNW BGS 25 E CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 35 WNW AGR 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 W CTY 35 SSE VLD 15 ENE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 20 W CAO 45 NW RTN 50 NNE ALS 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN 10 S MQM 50 ESE LVM 15 W 4BQ 55 WSW RAP 25 SW BKX 40 SW MKG 45 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN KS...SRN NEB...FAR NWRN MO...AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO AND THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING INTO SRN CO ATTM. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS WITHIN AREA OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED NEWD INTO SRN NEB...AND THEN EWD THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL OH. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NWWD INTO SWRN NEB. A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED FROM ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER SWD INTO WRN TX. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE...WARM FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SMALL CAP EVIDENT ON THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING...AND VERY LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION FARTHER S OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 20-22Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD TO WEST CENTRAL TX WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY INITIATE. SLY LLJ WILL REDEVELOP WWD AND STRENGTHEN BY 00Z FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN KS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE/WARM FRONT OVER NWRN KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN/NRN KS WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB...AS THE 40-45 KT SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS MAINTAINED WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE CO SURFACE LOW INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...ERN CO... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE FROM AROUND PUB TO NEAR DEN ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ...LOWER MO VALLEY EWD TO THE OH VALLEY... MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM FAR NERN KS INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AND INTO IL OVERNIGHT. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW STORMS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MULTICELLS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE THREAT FROM IL EWD TO OH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NRN FL... OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND/OR AT THE INTERSECTION OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 22:09:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 17:09:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505112219.j4BMJ2L2018292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112216 SWODY1 SPC AC 112215 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 112210Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE FNB 30 E STJ 10 SE MKC 25 WNW HUT 50 WSW P28 60 N CDS 30 ENE AMA 45 E LAA 35 NE LAA 40 SSE AKO 25 N IML 25 ESE GRI 30 NNE FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CAO 45 S LAA 35 S PUB DEN 10 SW AKO 30 S SNY 15 SSE AIA 35 S SUX 50 ESE MMO 30 WSW TOL 15 W YNG 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 50 W HTS 10 SE EVV 25 ENE CGI 50 SSE SZL 45 SSW EMP 30 WNW PNC 30 W END 25 S LTS 10 W ABI 40 ENE BGS 30 WNW BGS 25 E CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CTY 35 SSE VLD 15 ENE JAX ...CONT... VRB 35 WNW AGR 20 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 20 W CAO 45 NW RTN 50 NNE ALS 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN 10 S MQM 50 ESE LVM 15 W 4BQ 55 WSW RAP 25 SW BKX 40 SW MKG 45 NNE MTC ...CONT... 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN/NRN KS...SRN NEB...FAR NWRN MO...AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO AND THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL... AMENDED TO ADD THE REST OF NWRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB TO THE MODERATE RISK...AND EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK NWD ACROSS WRN NEB ...NWRN KS/NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN NEB... WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED FARTHER TO THE NW ACROSS ALL OF NW KS AND EXTENDED FROM ERN CO NEAR 45 E LIC NEWD TO NEAR MCK IN SWRN NEB. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED EWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN TO EAST CENTRAL MO WAS ACTING AS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT FARTHER TO THE EAST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION AND NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 40-60 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO TO CENTRAL NEB ATTM SUGGESTS LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP WWD AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GLD VAD WIND DATA INDICATED 0-3 KM SRH VALUES STRENGTHENING SINCE 21Z WITH THE 18Z RUC SUGGESTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE EVENING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 250-500 M2/S2. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...SOME STRONG...WILL BE LIKELY FROM THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION AND NEWD INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS THIS EVENING...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING INTO SRN CO ATTM. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS WITHIN AREA OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED NEWD INTO SRN NEB...AND THEN EWD THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL OH. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NWWD INTO SWRN NEB. A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED FROM ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER SWD INTO WRN TX. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE...WARM FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SMALL CAP EVIDENT ON THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING...AND VERY LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION FARTHER S OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 20-22Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD TO WEST CENTRAL TX WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY INITIATE. SLY LLJ WILL REDEVELOP WWD AND STRENGTHEN BY 00Z FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN KS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE/WARM FRONT OVER NWRN KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN/NRN KS WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB...AS THE 40-45 KT SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS MAINTAINED WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE CO SURFACE LOW INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...ERN CO... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE FROM AROUND PUB TO NEAR DEN ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ...LOWER MO VALLEY EWD TO THE OH VALLEY... MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM FAR NERN KS INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AND INTO IL OVERNIGHT. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW STORMS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MULTICELLS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE THREAT FROM IL EWD TO OH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NRN FL... OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND/OR AT THE INTERSECTION OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 01:02:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 20:02:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505120112.j4C1CDoY020668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120109 SWODY1 SPC AC 120108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BIE 15 SW BIE 35 NNW MHK 25 N SLN 25 NW RSL 40 SSE HLC DDC 40 NE EHA 55 S GLD 25 SSW IML 20 N IML 25 ESE GRI 15 NW BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW AMA EHA 35 SSW GLD 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 30 ESE MHN 35 SSW SUX 40 SSE DSM 30 SW BRL 25 N CMI 15 SSW MFD 10 NNW ZZV 30 SSW UNI 25 NNW LEX 25 SE MDH 35 E VIH 25 SSW SZL 15 E HUT 30 W END 25 S LTS ABI 40 ENE BGS 40 NW BGS 15 WSW AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 20 W CAO 45 NW RTN 50 NNE ALS 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN 10 S MQM 50 ESE LVM 15 W 4BQ 25 NNE REJ 25 ENE ABR 30 ENE ABR 35 NE FSD 10 SE FOD 20 ESE CID 25 SE MMO 35 ENE FWA 20 WSW CLE 30 NW YNG 10 W BFD 30 SW ALB 45 NNE BML ...CONT... 20 SSE OAJ 35 ENE CLT 40 WSW AVL 15 NNW RMG 45 SSW CSG 25 W MGR 10 S SSI ...CONT... 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA ...CONT... 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN KS INTO SRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS... ...NEB/NRN KS INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CO/WRN KS BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER AREA OF NEB/KS NEAR 45 NNE HLC. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN KS/NRN MO...THEN EXTENDED SEWD INTO CENTRAL MO. VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA ACROSS KS/OK SHOWED THE SLY LLJ HAS REDEVELOPED WWD AND WAS LOCATED FROM WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS. THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH SWLY 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WRN NEB THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL REMAIN SURFACE BASED THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. AFTER 03Z...STORMS WILL BECOME PRIMARILY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. THIS MCS WILL BE FED BY A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER 40 KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO NEB...WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS WILL BE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...WRN KS SWD TO OK/TX PANHANDLES... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WRN KS...GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DDC SOUNDING. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE MORE CONDITIONAL...GIVEN GREATER CINH PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ...IL/IN/OH... A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IL INTO CENTRAL OH...WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL/SRN IL EWD TO SRN IND WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...WITH A COUPLE OF MCV/S/ MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL/SRN IND AIDING IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS UNTIL 03-04Z. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL DECREASE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 04:49:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 23:49:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505120459.j4C4xVZR012609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120456 SWODY1 SPC AC 120455 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BVO CSM 40 NNW CDS 45 WSW GAG 25 ESE DDC SLN 20 NW TOP 25 SW OJC 35 NNW BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBB AMA EHA LAA 50 SSW GLD HLC 45 WNW BIE 30 NNW OMA MCW DBQ MMO LAF BMG 10 SSE MVN VIH UMN SPS 30 W ABI 10 SSE BGS LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE ...CONT... 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24 55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE LBE 20 WSW DCA 25 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OK...AND CENTRAL/EAST KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH BROAD BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHWEST OK BORDER BY MORNING...THEN BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ACROSS KS DURING THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON THURSDAY. ...TX/OK/KS/MO... MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY WILL LIE ROUGHLY FROM AMA-GAG-GBD BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW EARLY-MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 700MB TEMPS/CAP WILL SLOWLY COOL/WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING DUE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF NM. FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...ACROSS NORTHWEST OK...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS. HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...BACKED FLOW IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY AND INCREASING 850MB WINDS SUGGEST THAT TORNADO THREAT MAY LOCALLY INCREASE OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KS AND INTO MO. ...KS/CO... DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ...IA/IL/MO INTO THE OH VALLEY... SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING. MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE SUGGESTS A RISK OF WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH RIVER. THIS WILL BE BENEATH UPPER RIDGE... SUGGESTING THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 12:47:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 07:47:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505121256.j4CCut0S023670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121254 SWODY1 SPC AC 121252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNC 10 SSE CDS 15 SE LBB 50 ENE CVS 40 E DHT 45 N GAG 10 NW HUT 20 SSW TOP 15 NNE CNU PNC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CVS 30 SE LHX 50 SSW GLD 20 WNW RSL 10 S BIE 50 NNE OMA 10 SSE MCW 20 ENE DBQ 35 SW CGX 15 E LAF BMG 10 SSE MVN VIH 20 SSW JLN SPS 15 NW ABI 20 NNW MAF 10 NW CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24 55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE 10 SSW HLG 35 ENE CHO 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION NEWD INTO KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE MID MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW ENTERING SW WY SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD TODAY AND REACH CNTRL ND EARLY FRIDAY AS IT DE AMPLIFIES AND IS REABSORBED INTO THE VLYS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN IMPULSE NOW ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE NE ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE NRN PLNS EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... THE DATA APPEAR LARGELY DEVOID OF IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES FROM THE LWR MO VLY EWD TO THE ATLANTIC. AT LOWER LEVELS...LATEST SURFACE DATA AND PROFILER/VWPS SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONTAL SURGE WHICH CROSSED WRN/CNTRL KS OVERNIGHT IS DECELERATING ATTM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK. THE WRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATER TODAY... WHILE THE KS PORTION EVENTUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY . FARTHER E... UNUSUALLY STRONG ONTARIO HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN A SWD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO MD. A DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY OVER W TX. ...TX PANHANDLE TO CNTRL/ERN KS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ ORIENTED FROM S CNTRL TX NWWD INTO THE LBB AREA AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. FRONT NOW MOVING S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SHOULD REDEVELOP N TO PERHAPS THE OK PANHANDLE REGION LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING /WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY/ AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS AHEAD OF AZ/NM IMPULSE. DIURNAL HEATING...COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAP ROCK/ SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT AND/OR DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS FROM NEAR LBB NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE FOSTERED BY GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AZ/NM SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO NW OK AND SRN...CNTRL AND NE KS. AMPLE /40 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ALONG MDT RISK CORRIDOR. THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DISCRETE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY EXIST IN THE TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHERE LINEAR FORCING WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER NE /ASSUMING THAT FRONT DOES INDEED REDEVELOP N/ ...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. NEVERTHELESS...ONCE STORMS DO FORM ALONG FRONT NEWD INTO KS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM NW OK INTO SRN KS AS SUPERCELLS TRAIN NEWD ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A QUASI LINEAR MCS. ...NRN AND ERN CO... SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY RETURN NWD TO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR A WEAK SUPERCELL OR TWO IN SE CO...WHERE LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES WILL EXIST. FARTHER N...LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH HAIL MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE N CNTRL AND NE PART OF THE STATE. ...IA/IL/MO INTO THE LWR OH VLY... INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE FRONT STALLING IN THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 750-1000 J PER KG/ LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. IN THE MEAN TIME...OTHER SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY INVOF THE LWR OH RVR WITH SURFACE HEATING TODAY. UPR LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 16:30:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 11:30:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505121639.j4CGdin2015894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121635 SWODY1 SPC AC 121634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 25 SSW P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 20 ENE FLV MHK 20 E CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 E OFK 15 SSE FOD 35 SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 SE END 75 ESE LBB 35 NNE HOB 40 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24 55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE 10 SSW HLG 35 ENE CHO 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...WEST TX PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL KS... WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SEWD MOTION THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SWWD TO JUST SE OF GAG TO W OF PVW AT 15Z. HEATING/MIXING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING E-W BETWEEN LBB AND PVW ON THE SOUTH END. FRONT SHOULD MIX/LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD NORTH OF PVW LATER TODAY AND WNWWD INTO NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST THIS MORNING ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INITIATING ALONG SWRN PORTION OF FRONT OVER WEST TX PLAINS/FAR E-CENTRAL NM AND LIFT NEWD JUST BEHIND FRONT. RISK OF HAIL...INCLUDING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL STONES...SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE NEAR THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP...AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH SLY LLJ REMAINING ANCHORED AND INCREASING OVER NWRN TX...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE SVR MCS/S LATER TODAY AND LIFT NNEWD WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL... SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEB TODAY AND ALLOW WARM FRONT TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NRN MO/FAR SRN IA. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING NARROW AREA EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA...GIVEN EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S AND PRESENCE OF LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AS THEY LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SRN IL TODAY. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION BY 21Z FROM ERN MO INTO SRN IL. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED OVER SRN IL WITHIN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST MULTICELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 17:37:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 12:37:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505121747.j4CHlFbN002444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121745 SWODY1 SPC AC 121744 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 25 SSW P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 20 ENE FLV MHK 20 E CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 E OFK 15 SSE FOD 35 SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 SE END 75 ESE LBB 35 NNE HOB 40 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 NW INK 45 WSW CAO 30 S PUB 15 NNE ALS 25 NW DRO 30 ENE U17 15 SSW PUC 45 SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 15 ESE CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 25 W EAR 25 ENE MHE 60 ESE BRD 20 WNW IMT 55 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 20 S CRW 30 NNE SSU 25 ESE EKN 20 NNW CHO 35 ENE LYH 20 WSW ECG 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 50 N AGS 30 ESE RMG 30 NW BHM 30 ENE LUL 45 NNW GPT 40 NNW BTR 25 SSW GLH 25 WNW MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 40 ESE TBN 25 S TBN 25 NW HRO 20 S ACT 40 E SAT 35 E COT 65 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... CORRECTED GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ...WEST TX PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL KS... WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SEWD MOTION THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SWWD TO JUST SE OF GAG TO W OF PVW AT 15Z. HEATING/MIXING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING E-W BETWEEN LBB AND PVW ON THE SOUTH END. FRONT SHOULD MIX/LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD NORTH OF PVW LATER TODAY AND WNWWD INTO NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST THIS MORNING ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INITIATING ALONG SWRN PORTION OF FRONT OVER WEST TX PLAINS/FAR E-CENTRAL NM AND LIFT NEWD JUST BEHIND FRONT. RISK OF HAIL...INCLUDING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL STONES...SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE NEAR THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP...AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH SLY LLJ REMAINING ANCHORED AND INCREASING OVER NWRN TX...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE SVR MCS/S LATER TODAY AND LIFT NNEWD WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL... SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEB TODAY AND ALLOW WARM FRONT TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NRN MO/FAR SRN IA. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING NARROW AREA EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA...GIVEN EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S AND PRESENCE OF LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AS THEY LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SRN IL TODAY. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION BY 21Z FROM ERN MO INTO SRN IL. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED OVER SRN IL WITHIN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST MULTICELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 20:04:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:04:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505122014.j4CKENK0019438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122005 SWODY1 SPC AC 122003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 30 S P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 30 NE MKC MHK 20 E CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 NE OFK 20 WNW FOD 35 SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 NNE OKC 55 SSW LTS 35 SSE BGS 15 E INK 40 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 NW INK 45 WSW CAO 30 S PUB 15 NNE ALS 25 NW DRO 30 ENE U17 15 SSW PUC 45 SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 15 ESE CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 25 W EAR 25 ENE MHE 60 ESE BRD 20 WNW IMT 55 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 20 S CRW 30 NNE SSU 25 ESE EKN 20 NNW CHO 20 NNW RIC 35 WSW ORF 35 N HSE ...CONT... 25 SW CRE 50 N AGS 30 ESE RMG 30 NW BHM 30 ENE LUL 45 NNW GPT 40 NNW BTR 25 SSW GLH 25 WNW MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 40 ESE TBN 25 S TBN 25 NW HRO 20 S ACT 40 E SAT 35 E COT 65 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...WEST TX PLAINS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES/NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES/VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD STOPPED MOVING SEWD. IT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST TX PLAINS /BETWEEN LBB AND PVW/ NEWD TO NWRN OK INTO CENTRAL/NERN KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LOW...AND ENTRANCE REGION OF ATTENDANT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM W TX TO CENTRAL KS INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/ STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORM. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST. AMA 18Z SOUNDING INDICATED MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED CAPE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE TOWARD THE MAF AREA WILL BE MORE ISOLATED GIVEN WEAKER UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE FOR THESE FACTORS RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK SWD OVER THIS REGION. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ TO 50 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS TX AND NOSING INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN AND NRN OK AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...THE NEB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD INTO IA. COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN NEB INTO NERN/CENTRAL KS. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO SWRN IA. HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH STORMS TRACKING NEWD INTO NERN NEB/NWRN IA ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE SERN NEB SURFACE LOW INTO NRN MO...AND THEN SEWD INTO KY AS A WARM FRONT. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. INCREASING WAA ALONG A SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 00:45:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 19:45:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505130055.j4D0tWMf028251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130053 SWODY1 SPC AC 130051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CVS 55 NNE AMA 25 SSE DDC 30 ESE RSL MHK 10 WNW FLV 35 WNW LWD 20 SSE ALO 30 WSW RFD 15 SE LAF 15 WSW BMG 15 E MDH 25 E VIH 20 NE JLN 55 ENE OKC 60 WSW SPS 40 S MAF INK 40 ENE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 SSE CNM 45 NW HOB 10 SW TCC 25 E EHA LHX 15 NNE ALS 45 SSW GUC 35 SE CNY 20 E PUC 45 SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 30 E CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 20 SSW BIE 30 SSE OMA 45 W FOD FSD 55 WSW AXN 25 WNW BRD 30 ENE RHI 45 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 35 ESE 5I3 20 ESE SSU 40 S CHO 20 S RIC 15 NW ECG 30 N HSE ...CONT... 20 SW CRE 15 SW AND 55 SSE BNA 30 ENE CBM 20 ENE GPT 35 ENE MSY 40 S MCB 35 SW GWO 25 WNW MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 50 ESE TBN 40 SSW TBN 20 NE FYV 10 ESE DUA 55 ENE JCT 40 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA... STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A LINEAR MCS FROM KS NEWD THROUGH IA WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM NWRN MO SWD TO NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...AN AXIS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO SEWD TO JUST S OF ST LOUIS. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH NRN MO...WITH BACKBUILDING ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE FARTHER SW ACROSS KS AS WELL. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LIKELY AS THEY CONTINUE THROUGH NRN MO. HOWEVER...THE DRYER BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS FROM 20-25F MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...TX AND OK... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION OVER THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE ARE EVOLVING INTO A SLOW MOVING/BACKBUILDING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS...W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS ONE OR MORE MASS AS THEY SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 05:46:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 00:46:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505130556.j4D5u2G5021970@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130554 SWODY1 SPC AC 130552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE MRF 15 WNW FST 40 SW LBB 40 SSE EHA 30 N DDC 20 W LWD 25 ESE CID 10 WNW JVL 40 SSW HTL 85 ESE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 35 NW AOO 15 SE CRW 30 NNW BWG 15 NNW DYR 20 W LIT 45 E ACT 30 N SAT 55 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE CTB 20 ESE LWT 15 ESE WRL 30 N BPI 50 N SUN 10 NNW BOI 55 N WMC 10 ENE LOL 10 N TVL 15 NE SAC 50 ESE UKI 45 N UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 30 SE MCK 40 NNW OMA 15 ESE EAU ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 20 NNW BDR 25 E PHL 30 NNW BWI 45 NNE SHD 30 E LYH 55 SSW RIC 30 N HSE ...CONT... 30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV 25 N LGC 10 SSE BHM 20 NW MEI 10 ESE MLU 20 ENE LFK 50 SSE AUS LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE EAST AND INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING SEWD THROUGH KS...OK AND TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. ...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA... SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE FRONT NOW FROM KY WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY. DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E OF SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS A MODERATE RISK WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY... ONGOING STORMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN KS RAISE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS HAVE BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING ACROSS OK AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. STORMS ON THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO MUCH OF OK SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND WEAKENS. THIS SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY STORMS E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF W TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS. ONCE SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...BUT STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM NRN TX INTO CNTRL KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH KS. PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN W TX. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL STORMS ON THE COLD FRONT...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SERN STATES... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT FROM SC NWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 12:42:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 07:42:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505131252.j4DCqRZM005498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131249 SWODY1 SPC AC 131247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW ERI HLG 30 NW CRW 30 SE OWB 35 N DYR 15 NW LIT 40 E ACT 35 NNW JCT 55 SE MAF 25 SSW LBB 30 SSE LBL 15 NW UIN 30 SW MKE 25 SE HTL 80 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE CTB 20 ESE LWT 15 ESE WRL 30 N BPI 50 N SUN 10 NNW BOI 55 N WMC 10 ENE LOL 10 N TVL 15 NE SAC 50 ESE UKI 45 N UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 20 NE POU 10 SE DOV 20 SSE DCA 25 NE CHO 30 E LYH 55 SSW RIC 30 N HSE ...CONT... 30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV 25 N LGC 10 SSE BHM 20 NW MEI 10 ESE MLU 20 ENE LFK 50 SSE AUS LRD ...CONT... 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 30 SE MCK 40 NNW OMA 15 ESE EAU ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER MI/OH AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE DIGGING SEWD OVER SASKATCHEWAN. IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN IA WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD LOWER MI AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS IL/IND/OH. A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE IA CYCLONE TO A SECONDARY LEE CYCLONE ACROSS EXTREME SW KS. THIS LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP SSEWD TODAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES SEWD AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS IA/MO/KS/OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ...TX/OK/KS/MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING ACROSS OK...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO ERN OK AND 1-2 COUNTIES S OF THE RED RIVER. THE REMNANT COLD POOL ACROSS OK AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE W FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W TO E AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS SRN KS/CENTRAL AND WRN OK/NW TX IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000-3500 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TX TO SRN/SERN KS AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING... MOISTENING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM S/SE KS TO N/NW OK...AND THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE THAT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/NW TX BY TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-40 KT /ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN THE SRN EXTENT OF THE PLAINS MID LEVEL TROUGH/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF INITIATION. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WITH MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS MO IS MORE UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN MO WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO WHERE THE LOW LEVELS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECOVER...AND IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD FROM SE KS. ...IL/IND/MI/OH AREA TODAY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED SE OF THE REMNANT CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION /ROUGHLY SE OF A SGF-SPI-MBS LINE/. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND ANY ATTENDANT THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 16:15:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 11:15:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505131624.j4DGOYTo020079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131619 SWODY1 SPC AC 131618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW CDS 30 SSW GAG 40 ESE GAG 15 S END 15 SSW OKC 20 E SPS 55 SW SPS 45 S CDS 20 NNW CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 25 SE FKL 10 NNW UNI 40 SSW EVV 35 N DYR 15 NW LIT 40 E ACT 35 NNW JCT 55 SE MAF 25 SSW LBB 30 SSE LBL 10 WSW SLN 15 WNW UIN 30 SW MKE 20 NNW HTL 10 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 50 NE GTF 35 N LWT 25 N BIL 35 NE COD 25 ESE WEY SUN 35 NE OWY 20 ESE EKO 40 N ELY 60 SSW ELY 70 ENE TPH 40 S U31 40 W U31 20 S NFL 70 NW BIH 45 NNE FAT 35 N FAT 30 ESE MER 25 N MER 30 ENE SCK 10 NNE SAC 50 ESE UKI 45 NNW UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 E ONP 25 ESE AST 20 ESE HQM 30 SSW CLM 55 NE SEA 45 W YKM 35 ENE DLS 45 E YKM 40 ENE EPH 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 30 SSE DVL 20 ESE BIS 20 ESE DIK 20 E ISN 55 N ISN ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 35 W PVW 45 NNE CAO 30 SE MCK 50 WSW DSM 30 WNW OSH ANJ ...CONT... 20 N PBG 15 SE POU 10 ESE BWI 25 NW RIC 20 ENE RDU 10 NE FAY 35 S ILM ...CONT... 30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV 40 NE DHN 50 SSW LUL 10 E HUM 30 W HUM 15 NW LCH 15 ENE LFK 25 SSE TYR 65 E ACT 50 SSE AUS LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TODAY FROM TX INTO OH/WESTERN NY. HOWEVER...TWO AREAS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FOCUSED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...TX/OK... SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK. POOL OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE OVER THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WHICH WILL APPROACH WESTERN OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST TX...AND WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IMMEDIATELY ON NORTH SIDE OF THIS ZONE MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST OK. ...ERN IL/NRN IND/SRN LWR MI/NWRN OH... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING ALONG THE MS RIVER...MOVING INTO IL. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE HELPING TO QUICKLY TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND DESTABILIZE REGION. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POCKETS OF SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON FROM EASTERN IL ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN IL/WESTERN IND AND SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NY/PA. ...KS/MO/CNTRL AND SRN IL... CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...MUCH OF MO...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. THIS AREA WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH 30-40 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 00:53:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 May 2005 19:53:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505150103.j4F13Lgd028691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150101 SWODY1 SPC AC 150059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BGM 15 SSE MSV 10 NNW EWR 20 ESE DOV 40 WNW ECG 60 SSW RIC 40 W RIC 30 NW BWI 15 NE IPT 20 S BGM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 30 S ALM 25 SE 4CR 55 ENE 4CR 40 W CVS 25 NNW HOB 20 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 45 W JCT 50 NNE DRT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM ...CONT... 20 SE SAV 70 W SAV 40 NNE ABY 35 E DHN 15 SE PFN ...CONT... 50 E DUG 55 NNW SVC 50 ENE SOW 35 NNE INW 25 N PRC IGM 40 SSW U31 35 WSW WMC 45 E SVE 15 W RNO 70 NNW BIH 40 WNW BIH 45 NNE FAT 35 NNE MER 55 SE RBL 50 W RBL 30 ESE CEC 30 NE OTH 40 W PDX 45 NNE PDX 40 SE SEA 35 S 4OM 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 NW HVR 40 ENE LWT 45 W GCC 35 SW DGW 40 ENE CYS 50 ESE LIC 45 N GCK 20 N DDC 30 S DDC 35 SSW LBL AMA 35 NNW PVW 40 WSW LBB 20 NNW BGS 45 E SJT 20 SE ACT 40 ENE SHV 40 WSW UOX BNA 15 ENE UNI 10 E YNG 35 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 25 E SRQ 25 NE FMY 50 NW MIA 20 SSE MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN NM... ...PA AND SERN NY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA... SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM ERN PA SWWD THROUGH CNTRL VA. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIMITED TO AOB 30 KT AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INCLUDING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS OF 15 TO 20F APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. ...SWRN TX THROUGH ERN NM... A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL TX WWD THROUGH SWRN TX. ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE HAVE MAINTAINED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S INTO SERN NM AND SWRN TX UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX. OTHER STORMS INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL AND NRN NM. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS AND PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE RAISES UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR IN SWRN TX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES...AND MODELS SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER NM LATER TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 05:32:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 00:32:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505150541.j4F5fWDx004365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150539 SWODY1 SPC AC 150537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS 35 SE AGS 40 SSE AHN 40 NW AHN 25 WSW HKY 20 SW LYH 20 E CHO BWI 10 WSW PHL 20 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 20 E TCS 25 ESE ABQ 35 ENE ALS COS 20 E LIC 35 WSW GLD 40 NE CAO 50 ENE CVS 50 N MAF 65 SSE MAF 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 40 WNW GDV 35 E 4BQ 10 NW RAP 35 NE PIR 20 NE FSD 25 N MWL 15 W TPL 40 N HOU 15 WNW BTR 15 ESE BLF 20 WSW ABE 15 W PSF 50 NNE PBG ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 40 NW EPM ...CONT... 50 E DUG 50 E SOW 70 N INW P38 20 E FAT 45 SE RBL MFR 25 NNW DLS 55 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX NOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN EJECT ENEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF A COLD FRONT NOW FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM S TX WWD THROUGH ERN NM. ...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NWD OF CNTRL VA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH OH VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY 30-40 KT...BUT MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LINGER FROM ONGOING STORMS...BUT POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM VA SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL LINES WITH SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER TO SELY N OF STALLED FRONT FROM SWRN TX THROUGH ERN NM AND CO AS CNTRL PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER ERN NM AND 40S OVER ERN CO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO NM AND W TX TODAY. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS FROM PARTS OF ERN NM INTO W TX EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT OR DELAY DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER ERN NM WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO W TX WITHIN REGIME OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION N OF STALLED FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN NM TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER ERN CO IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST INTO LESSER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND KS DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 12:49:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 07:49:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505151258.j4FCwa7n020520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151256 SWODY1 SPC AC 151254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 20 E TCS 25 SSE SAF 20 SSE LVS 40 WSW TCC 40 NNW HOB 35 WNW MAF 65 SSE MAF 35 ESE P07. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 40 WNW CHS 40 N AGS 10 W GSP 25 WSW HKY 20 SW LYH 20 E CHO BWI 15 S PHL 20 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 45 ENE SOW 30 S CNY 40 WNW PUC 35 WNW U24 45 SSW TPH 30 NE FAT 45 SE RBL MFR 10 NE BLI ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD 15 SSE OKC 15 W TPL 40 N HOU 25 E BTR 35 SSE PKB 45 NNW ILG 25 NE MSV 25 NNW PBG ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 40 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SW TX AND SE NM.... ...ATLANTIC COAST AREA... A DIFFUSE BAND OF CONVECTION /ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS/ IS MOVING EWD ACROSS AL/GA/SC...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INVOF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 5.5-6.5 C/KM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING E OF THE THICKER CLOUD BAND SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY BY LATE EVENING...AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA... A FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS W TX WILL CONTINUE TOWARD CENTRAL TX TODAY...SUPPORTED BY ELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST. MEANWHILE...LINGERING CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLUSTER INTRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ONGOING STORMS...AND TO THE W ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NM. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 16:02:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 11:02:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505151612.j4FGC2Zb023529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151607 SWODY1 SPC AC 151605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 40 SSE CAE 40 NW AGS AND HKY LYH 35 ENE CHO DOV 10 ESE ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 20 E TCS ONM 4CR GDP FST 45 NE P07 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 20 NNW SAD 55 NE INW 35 SSW GJT CAG RWL 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35 S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 35 ESE SEP 50 SSW LFK 20 S POE 40 NNW BTR 25 NNE MCB 30 WSW TCL 10 WSW CHA 40 ESE 5I3 40 NNW SSU 10 ENE MGW ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES`... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX... ...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTHERN AL. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM GA INTO SOUTHEAST VA. AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC...ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...INTO SOUTHEAST VA. THIS REGION SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING TODAY LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AL/GA WILL ALSO AFFECT THIS REGION LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW 20-30 KNOT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ALOFT... SUGGESTING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STORMS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC COAST THIS EVENING. ...NM/TX... LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL ERODE SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS. PRESENT INDICATION ARE THAT WESTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY AID IN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ...NERN NM INTO WY/NEB... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST NM/EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY/NEB PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD EASTWARD. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 19:55:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 14:55:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505152006.j4FK63YC024609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152002 SWODY1 SPC AC 152001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 50 SSE CAE 25 N AGS 15 ESE SPA 10 ENE HKY LYH 30 E CHO 30 NNE NHK 35 SSW ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN 30 WSW TCS 25 NW ONM 30 NNE 4CR GDP 35 SW FST 70 N DRT 35 SSE JCT 45 SSE SAT 40 NW ALI 20 SSW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 20 NNW SAD 55 NE INW 35 SSW GJT CAG RWL 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35 S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 35 ESE SEP 50 SSW LFK 20 S POE 40 NNW BTR 25 NNE MCB 30 WSW TCL 10 WSW CHA 40 ESE 5I3 40 NNW SSU 10 ENE MGW ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NM INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN AND SRN TX... ...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TOWARD WRN QUEBEC...WITH A BAND OF 35-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER WRN NC/SC...WILL MOVE NEWD OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING. COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM WRN LONG ISLAND TO SERN VA AND SWWD TO NRN GA/CENTRAL AL. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE COAST AND WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...NM/TX... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL MCV TRACKING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL TX /30 SE BWD/ SWWD TO 35 NW DRT AND THEN WWD ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND REGION TO NRN CHIHUAHUA. FARTHER N...THIS BOUNDARY HAS BACKED INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM. OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FROM SERN NM INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER REGION OF STORMS HAS REMAINED THE STRONGEST...GIVEN ITS SEWD MOVEMENT INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MAINLY UNCAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN TX. SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS LEAD COMPLEX IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN UP TO 30 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CHIHUAHUA SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE MCV SHOULD AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THIS MCS MOVES INTO SRN TX. FARTHER W...VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SW TX...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO TO WRN NM AND SRN CO. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NM WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY ACROSS NM INTO SWRN TX WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ...ERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB... ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO SERN WY SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN WNWLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. DESPITE WEAK TO MODERATE WIND FIELDS...SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP...A FEW WILL BE SEVERE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ..PETERS.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 00:49:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 19:49:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505160100.j4G10Vog031350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ELP 35 WNW CVS 15 SE CVS 40 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 30 SW 4CR 60 NNE 4SL 20 SSE 4FC 10 NW LAR 20 SSE CPR 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35 S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 10 SSE TPL 45 NE HOU 20 WNW LFT 25 E BTR 35 S LUL 10 SSW MGM 35 NE ATL 40 N HKY 20 ENE SSU 45 SW MRB ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX... ...ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX... TSTM COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY INVOF ELP. GIVEN LOCAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER 2.5-3 KM DEEP /PER 00Z ELP SOUNDING/...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...ERN CO... ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CO /SPECIFICALLY YUMA COUNTY/ SWWD INTO PUEBLO COUNTY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG WIND GUST...PRIOR TO WEAKENING BY 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR ECG TO N OF CHS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA...IT APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED. THUS...CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM REGION. ..MEAD.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 04:32:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 23:32:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505160443.j4G4hKcS011590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160440 SWODY1 SPC AC 160439 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 35 SW 4HV 50 SW SGU 25 NNW LAS 60 S TPH 25 E U31. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PHP 35 W PIR 40 SSW ABR BKX 20 NE YKN 35 WNW OFK 25 E HLC 40 WSW GAG 25 W CDS 20 W PVW 35 S DHT 35 WSW IML 40 S PHP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 20 NW FAR 50 NNE MSP 35 NNW RST 20 N FOD OMA 40 N CNK 30 SSE RSL 40 ENE GAG 10 ENE LTS 35 WNW TPL 30 SSW PSX ...CONT... 25 S MOB 25 SSW MGM CAE 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 15 W ELP 25 NE ALM 50 S LVS 50 W RTN 65 S 4BL 35 ESE GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB SCK 40 SE RBL 55 SSW 4LW 25 S BKE 50 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN...EVENTUALLY INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM BUILDING OF RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH MID/UPPER LOW REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC NW SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER ERN ORE/WRN ID AT 16/12Z WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND CONSOLIDATE WITH BROADER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CNTRL MT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG...TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FARTHER E...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THROUGH THE DAY FROM WRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL WITH LITTLE EWD MOVEMENT OWING TO INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS TO THE W. WEAK WARM FRONT OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FROM IT/S INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. ...GREAT BASIN EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AS HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP...LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER TO THE NE...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF MT AND WY ALONG LEE TROUGH. GIVEN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK OVER THIS AREA. ...CNTRL SD/NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL... PERSISTENT STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND S OF WARM FRONT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN INITIATE GIVEN: 1) BUILDING HEIGHTS/STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...AND 2) ANTICIPATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. INSPECTION OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION SIGNAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM S-CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL...MORE ELEVATED TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD INTO SRN MN ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SERN U.S... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SC ACROSS SRN GA INTO THE FL PNHDL WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 12:14:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 07:14:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505161225.j4GCPm9P017805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161223 SWODY1 SPC AC 161221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 35 SW 4HV 50 SW SGU 25 NNW LAS 60 S TPH 25 E U31. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE RAP 50 E REJ 10 S MBG 30 N HON 35 WSW FSD 25 W OFK 30 NW GRI 45 ENE MCK 20 E IML 30 WNW MHN 30 SSE RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 20 NW FAR 50 NNE MSP 35 NNW RST 20 N FOD OMA 40 N CNK 30 SSE RSL 40 ENE GAG 10 ENE LTS 20 SW MWL 30 ENE ACT 40 SW GLS ...CONT... 25 S MOB 25 SSW MGM CAE 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 15 W ELP 25 NE ALM 50 S LVS 50 W RTN 65 S 4BL 35 ESE GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB SCK 40 SE RBL 55 SSW 4LW 25 S BKE 50 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NEB/SD.... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NRN CA WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER NV TODAY...REACHING UT/WRN CO OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVES SLOWLY SEWD TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIO GRANDE TROUGH...AND ALONG A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AREAS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND THE NEB/SD AREA. ...GREAT BASIN AREA... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NV TODAY AND UT TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INTENSE MID LEVEL WAVE. A THICK BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN NV. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...ALONG WITH ALREADY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN 50-70 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG/FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A FEW EMBEDDED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUCH POTENTIAL. ...NEB/SD AREA... A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM WI TO W TX...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MID 50S OR GREATER DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM CENTRAL TX SWD. ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND THE LOWER PLAINS TONIGHT. OVERALL...THIS FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED/MARGINAL ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...INVOF OF SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT ACROSS NEB/SD. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...COULD HELP OFFSET VERTICAL MIXING AND ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 F AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. ASSUMING CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION COULD ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING 35-50 KT SLY LLJ. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 16:21:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 11:21:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505161632.j4GGWbgK011589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161625 SWODY1 SPC AC 161623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10 NNE SGU 40 NE DRA 10 ESE TPH 25 E U31. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 15 NNE ATY 25 ESE RWF 15 NE SPW 30 SSW SUX 35 NNE GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ISN 20 W P24 40 NNE AXN 45 NNE MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N GAG 40 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 NNE ACT 25 SSE TYR 30 W POE 25 ESE BPT ...CONT... 25 S MOB 20 NNE ABY 15 NNE RWI 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 50 W MRF 45 SE ALM 35 SSE 4CR 40 NW 4CR 40 WSW ABQ 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20 E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB 25 S SAC 20 ENE UKI 50 SW MHS 30 WNW MHS 10 SE 4LW 25 S BKE 50 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF ID/NV/UT. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ID INTO NORTHERN UT. THIS AREA WILL SEE STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NV ALONG THE FRONT AND SURGE EASTWARD INTO ID/UT. STRONG WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS AND FOCUSED FORCING ALONG FRONT MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WY/CO TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT BY 06Z. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER WY/SD WHICH AFFECT REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL AID IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN AND INTO CENTRAL NEB. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO INTO MT. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. ...SC/GA/FL... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SC...SOUTHEAST GA...AND NORTHEAST FL. MODERATE INSTABILITY... COMBINED WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE STORMS OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 20:02:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 15:02:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505162013.j4GKD4OM022894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162006 SWODY1 SPC AC 162005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10 NNE SGU 40 NE DRA 10 ESE TPH 25 E U31. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 15 NNE ATY 25 ESE RWF 15 NE SPW 30 SSW SUX 35 NNE GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 45 ENE ALM 35 NNW 4CR 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20 E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB 25 S SAC 20 ENE UKI 50 SE EKA 25 S CEC ...CONT... 15 E BLI 25 E PDX 15 SW RDM 50 SW BNO 55 E BNO 45 NE S80 45 N FCA ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 W P24 40 NNE AXN 45 NNE MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N GAG 40 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 NNE ACT 25 SSE TYR 30 W POE 25 ESE BPT ...CONT... 25 S MOB 20 NNE ABY 15 NNE RWI 25 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO SWRN WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SWRN MN... ...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES... EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FOCUSED ASCENT...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEVELOPING CONVECTION...IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/STEEPENING EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.6-0.8 INCHES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXHIBIT INVERTED-V STRUCTURES SUPPORTING CLOUD BASES WELL ABOVE 700MB. IF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NV CAN ORGANIZE AND FORM A COLD POOL...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS UT INTO SWRN WY/SERN ID. ...NEB/SD/SWRN MN... LLJ WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NCNTRL KS INTO SERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUBSEQUENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY AS UPSTREAM LAPSE RATE PLUME STEEPENS AND SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THIS REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT MORE DOWNSTREAM AND BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WEAKLY ROTATING ELEVATED/NEAR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ...SERN U.S... VARIOUS SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND A WEAKLY FOCUSED...ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SC COAST...WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH STRONGEST MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG INTO SERN GA. IT APPEARS A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY YET EVOLVE FROM NERN FL INTO SERN GA WHERE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 00:33:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 19:33:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505170044.j4H0iEVk002115@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170041 SWODY1 SPC AC 170039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DPG 15 W MQM 20 N WEY 40 WSW COD 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10 NW BCE 30 WSW CDC 55 NNE P38 40 NNW DPG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 30 NE HON 10 ESE BKX 30 SSE FSD 25 ENE OFK 40 N GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HUM 30 SSW MCN 15 SSE RWI 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 W P24 40 NNE AXN 45 NNE MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N GAG 40 WNW CDS 40 SE LBB 30 SSW BWD 25 N CLL 60 N HOU 20 S BPT ...CONT... 50 W MRF 45 ENE ALM 35 NNW 4CR 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20 E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB 20 SSW SAC 55 S RBL 20 WNW RBL 25 S MHS 25 ESE MFR 35 SE EUG 25 NW PDX 35 NNW UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD... ...GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. INTENSE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION /PER WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET FROM ERN NV EWD ACROSS UT/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARE MAINTAINING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM ERN ID SWWD INTO SRN NV. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY /REF. 00Z SLC SOUNDING/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TONIGHT EWD ACROSS UT/ERN ID INTO PORTIONS OF WY AND CO. ...SD/NEB... SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT STORM INITIATION HAVE OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER N-CNTRL NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD INVOF WEAK W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH OVER SWRN SD GENERALLY EWD INTO FAR SWRN MN. INSPECTION OF 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT ALONG AXIS OF INTENSIFYING LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB EWD/NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. GIVEN STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN SC/GA... LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CHS SWWD TO JUST E OF ABY WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS SAMPLED BY 00Z JAX SOUNDING. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH 03Z. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 04:33:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 23:33:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505170444.j4H4i3Hj010848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170441 SWODY1 SPC AC 170439 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MLS 20 S OLF 25 W ABR 25 SSE YKN 15 WNW BIE 45 NNW P28 40 ENE LBL 45 WSW GCK 30 ESE SNY 60 NW MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH 15 SSE ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 25 NW SJT 55 E FST 30 SW MAF 30 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 25 NW EHA LAA PUB 10 WNW ALS 15 NNW FMN 20 W 4BL 25 ENE 4HV 35 E PUC 10 WNW RIW 40 N BIL 35 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 WNW HOU 45 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER SERN MT/NERN WY AT 17/12Z IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE AND FILL AS IT DEVELOPS NWWD WITH TIME...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL SD BY THIS EVENING. ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD OUT OF ROCKIES...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM ERN MT TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN SD AND THEN SWWD INTO ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD...STRETCHING FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT OVER SWRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL BY PEAK HEATING. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY FROM ERN MT/WY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEB AS DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO OVERALL WEAKENING OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND LARGELY MERIDIONAL MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW....IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. TRANSITION OF STORM MODE INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY RAPIDLY ALONG EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN KS...THOUGH INCREASED CAPPING AND WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAKES INITIATION MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWD EXTENT. ...SERN STATES... STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA AND FL PNHDL WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. PROXIMITY OF SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS AND RESULTING INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IN UPPER PORTION OF CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR GREATER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 12:38:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 07:38:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505171248.j4HCmsTs001740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171246 SWODY1 SPC AC 171244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW MLS SDY BIS YKN 15 WNW BIE 45 NNW P28 40 ENE LBL 45 WSW GCK 15 ENE SNY 65 NW MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 WNW HOU 45 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 25 NW SJT 55 E FST 30 SW MAF 30 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 25 NW EHA LAA PUB ALS DRO 10 NNE 4BL U28 20 ESE PUC 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROTATING ENEWD OUT OF NERN UTAH...WILL TRACK THROUGH SRN WY AND INTO SD THIS EVENING. A 50-60 KT JET MAX MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN THE TROUGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NEWD. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT AND IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL SD BY THIS EVENING. PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES OVER WRN CO...WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EWD EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE ND/MT BORDER SEWD INTO WRN SD/NEB AND INTO SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH HEATING AND STRENGTHING WLY WINDS ALOFT...A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP AND STRETCH FROM NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN SWRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...500-850MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND HEATING THROUGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MAINLY DUE TO DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF THE STORMS IN WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND EXTREME NRN KS EVOLVING INTO A LINE BETWEEN 22Z-00Z AS THE MID LEVEL JET MAX LIFTS NEWD OUT OF CO. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE PARCELS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE STORMS DURING THE EVENING DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO TWO OR THREE CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION MAINTAIN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY..SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN KS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAKER DYNAMICAL FORCING SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. ...FL PENINSULA... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW DEEP ELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WWD MOVING SEA BREEZE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PENINSULA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 150 EAST OF BRO MOVING EWD AT 25 KT. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD ACROSS SRN FL TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 6-8 KM AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ...GA/CAROLINAS COASTAL REGION... STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SERN GA SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INLAND LATER TODAY. PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH WINDS IN THE LOWER 3 KM ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE MICROBURSTS. ..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 16:19:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 11:19:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505171630.j4HGU3eb011540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171627 SWODY1 SPC AC 171626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ISN MOT ATY BIE RSL 50 N GCK GLD IML CDR MLS 80 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB 55 SSE CTY 40 WNW CTY 15 WNW AYS 35 SE AGS 20 W FLO 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 S MRF 30 NW FST 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 10 SW EHA 30 SSW LAA 25 SE PUB ALS 40 NE DRO 45 WSW MTJ 50 NE U28 30 WNW VEL 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 15 SW ALI 20 NNW NIR 55 S CLL 35 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...PLAINS... VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CO/WY WILL ROTATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS FROM EASTERN MT INTO KS IS MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT FORCING AHEAD OF TROUGH...SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL ERODE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO WRN NEB. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY...BUT RAPID EVOLUTION TO SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED OVER SD/NEB/NWRN KS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING. STORMS MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN SD/NEB OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. FARTHER SOUTH STRONG HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WESTERN KS INTO THE BIG BEND OF TX. AT THIS TIME...VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE STORMS ARE WARRANTED. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHEAST SC...AND NORTHERN FL. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF VARIOUS BOUNDARIES WILL POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. PLEASE REFER TO MD NUMBER 894 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/GUYER.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 19:46:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 14:46:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505171957.j4HJvQi5006690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171954 SWODY1 SPC AC 171952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ISN MOT ATY BIE RSL 50 N GCK GLD IML CDR 20 E 81V 45 SW 4BQ 70 WNW MLS 80 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB 55 SSE CTY 40 WNW CTY 15 WNW AYS 35 SE AGS 20 W FLO 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SW MRF 20 SSW INK 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 10 SW EHA 30 SSW LAA 25 SE PUB ALS 40 NE DRO 45 WSW MTJ 50 NE U28 30 WNW VEL 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 15 SW ALI 20 NNW NIR 55 S CLL 35 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO ERN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL WY TOWARD SERN MT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN WY INTO ERN MT WHERE AIRMASS HAS STEADILY DESTABILIZED...SBCAPES IN ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A GRADUAL MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR GGW TO RAP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG SHARPENING LEE TROUGH...SLOWLY THINNING BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SHIFTING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY. STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR AS THIS CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ALLOWING SFC BOUNDARY TO BECOME MORE RECEPTIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INHIBITION IS SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. IN THE ABSENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT...A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...POST DRYLINE CU FIELD IS EXPANDING EWD OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS IS POTENTIALLY A STRONG INDICATION FOR DOWNSTREAM SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB BY 21-22Z. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN U.S... SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED ACROSS THE SERN U.S. FROM COASTAL GA INTO NRN FL PENINSULA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE HOLDING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED IN THIS REGION WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN NRN FL...AND NEAR THE COAST ACROSS GA INTO SC. A GRADUAL UPWARD EVOLUTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH EXPANDING PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL UNTIL THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DARROW.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 00:26:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 19:26:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505180036.j4I0as7u013337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180034 SWODY1 SPC AC 180032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW MOT MOT ATY FSD 25 NNW SUX 35 S SUX 20 ENE BIE 30 W MHK 35 SSE RSL 35 S HLC 30 E MCK 20 NNE ANW 35 NE PHP 25 S GDV 30 WNW GDV 50 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW MRF 20 SSW INK 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 35 ENE DHT 30 S LAA 25 NNE LHX 30 WSW LIC 35 WNW FCL 40 NE RWL 30 NE COD 30 N HVR ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 25 NNE LCH 35 S HEZ 35 WNW ABY 35 NE MCN 30 SSE AND 35 ESE SPA 35 SW SOP 35 SE FAY 15 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN WY INTO WRN SD/NEB PNHDL WITH ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM NRN CO INTO CNTRL SD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD /W OF PIR/ WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT SEWD TO THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THEN SWWD INTO E-CNTRL CO. STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WRN KS NWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE TO CONTINUE EWD/NEWD TONIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF SD AND NEB WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINING CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S OVER SRN NEB INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN KS...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...SC/GA/FL... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINAL HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS NEAR SAV SWWD INTO S-CNTRL GA...AS WELL AS LINGERING SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY E OF TPA. TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 02 OR 03Z WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 04:31:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 23:31:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505180442.j4I4g25J017350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180439 SWODY1 SPC AC 180438 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W FNB 40 SW FOD 30 W ALO 30 E CID 15 SW BRL 25 SSW JEF 25 SSE UMN 10 SE ADM 15 W SPS 30 WSW LTS 45 N CDS 55 SSW GAG 25 WNW P28 25 W FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW JMS 50 WNW JMS 20 ENE DVL 15 N TVF 10 NNE BJI BRD STC 25 W MKT 35 NNW OTG 20 E ATY 55 SSW JMS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LYH 25 E CHO 10 ESE RIC 60 NNE RWI 10 WSW RWI 20 SW RDU 20 S GSO 35 NNW GSO 25 NNW LYH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN 45 NNE GLH 50 NE PBF 25 SW LIT 30 SE PRX 30 S SEP 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 40 WNW CNK 20 WNW OFK 25 ESE HON 35 NE MBG 25 S ISN 60 NNE OLF ...CONT... 10 N CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 45 ESE FCA 20 S 3DU 15 E 27U 30 NE BOI 45 SE BNO 40 WNW 4LW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 10 SSE LEB 10 WNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF IA SWWD INTO OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN ND/NERN SD AND WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND NC... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN WY INTO WRN SD/NEB PNHDL WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES EWD...AND EVENTUALLY SEWD...UNDERCUTTING AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER CNTRL ND AT 18/12Z WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER ERN ND SWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND THEN SWWD INTO NWRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...IA/MO SWWD INTO OK... BAND OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM MN SWWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL IA INTO NERN KS...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO PARTS OF WI AND IL...ALONG EWD-MIGRATING BRANCH OF LLJ. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WITH STRONGEST STORMS POSING A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONAL...MORE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY ALONG THE SRN/SWRN FLANK OF THIS ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX...AS WELL AS FARTHER TO THE W ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS/WRN MO SWWD INTO NRN OK. HERE...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INTO LOWER 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. MODEST WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KTS ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH ANY STORM CLUSTERS THAT CAN FORWARD-PROPAGATE TO THE S OR SE. WWD EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE TX PNHDL INTO NWRN/WRN OK. ...ERN ND INTO MN... THOUGH AREAS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INVOF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL AND SURFACE LOW...LOCALIZED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO VERTICALLY-STACKED SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...HOWEVER RATHER COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...VA/NC... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY 45-55F. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS SHOULD ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ALLOWING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM THE S. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING...AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. HIGHER TERRAIN OF APPALACHIANS AND LEE TROUGH WILL BOTH SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 12:41:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 07:41:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505181252.j4ICqcRB007038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181250 SWODY1 SPC AC 181248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MHK 40 SW FOD ALO 25 ENE CID BRL JEF 25 SSE UMN ADM SPS LTS 40 ESE GAG 40 SSW P28 20 S SLN 35 NNW MHK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIS MOT 40 NNW DVL 15 N TVF 10 NNE BJI BRD STC RWF 40 WSW RWF ATY BIS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SSU SHD RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 30 SW RDU 15 WSW GSO 25 S PSK 35 E SSU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN 45 NNE GLH 50 NE PBF 25 SW LIT 30 SE PRX 30 S SEP 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 40 WNW CNK 10 SSE OLU 15 SE YKN 10 NW MHE 10 NNW 9V9 35 WSW PIR 30 NNW PHP 20 N REJ 70 NNE OLF ...CONT... 10 N CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 45 ESE FCA 20 S 3DU 15 E 27U 30 NE BOI 45 SE BNO 40 WNW 4LW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 10 SSE LEB 10 WNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA/MO SWWD INTO OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AND WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE VA/NC AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO MN TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...TRAILING SWD FROM THIS LOW...EXTENDS SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN WRN ND WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTED FRONT LOCATION BY EVENING IS FROM NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER SWD INTO ERN KS...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ...NWRN MO/KS AND OK... BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA/ EXTREME NRN MO...WHICH WAS BETTER FORECAST BY THE 06Z GFS THAN 06Z NAM. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 700-850 MB THAT HAS INHIBITED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND COOLING AROUND 700 MB...THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ERN KS/NWRN MO AFTER 21Z. STORMS SHOULD BACKBUILD INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY S/SWWD ALONG THE FRONT BACK INTO OK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH NAM DEWPOINTS ARE INITIALIZED 2-4 DEGREES TOO HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 6 KM WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT... THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CLUSTER ORGANIZES A SMALL COLD POOL AND FORWARD PROPAGATES TO THE S OR SE. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS FROM SWLY TO WLY ACROSS THE REGION. ...IA... DUE TO MORNING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...AREA WILL BE SLOWER TO DESTABILIZE. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNTIL AROUND MID EVENING. ...ND AND WRN MN... THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...DRY SLOT PUNCHING NWD FROM SD INTO ERN ND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING. COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ...SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW...BUT THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...VA/NC... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM SC NWD INTO VA WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH THE MOIST AXIS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING STORMS AND THE FORECAST OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-600 MB SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..IMY/ BANACOS.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 16:25:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 11:25:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505181636.j4IGaQfE006958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181634 SWODY1 SPC AC 181632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE PSK 30 S CHO RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 20 SSW RDU 30 SW GSO 45 NE HKY 35 SE PSK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FLV 45 SSE IRK 30 SSW JEF FYV ADM SPS LTS CSM 40 SSW P28 ICT FLV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RST ALO FOD OTG 30 NE ATY 55 NNE ABR DVL 35 N GFK BJI BRD RST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN 45 NNE GLH PBF 45 S HOT 20 NW TYR 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 25 W CNK 15 ENE OLU 15 SE YKN 10 NW MHE 20 NNW 9V9 55 N PHP 40 WSW Y22 45 W DIK 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 10 SSE LEB 10 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 45 ESE FCA 20 S 3DU 15 E 27U 30 NNE BOI 50 SE BNO 55 NNE 4LW 65 NNW 4LW 55 N LMT 30 NNE MFR 35 ENE CEC CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC/VA... ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...WITH SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS. MORNING CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER IA/MO...BUT IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS IL. AIRMASS BEHIND THESE STORMS AND FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF MN/ND SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA BEFORE WEAKENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST OF CNK SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TODAY...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ALONG A TOP-ICT-END LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT IS MORE MOIST THAN RECENT DAYS WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER MOST OF WESTERN OK. THIS GREATER MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ON MORNING SOUNDINGS IS FORECAST TO ERODE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD INTO WESTERN MO...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...VA/NC... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER VA/NC TODAY...WITH MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. NAM DEWPOINT FORECASTS APPEAR OVERDONE. HOWEVER...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND NO CAP. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND WESTERN NC...SPREADING EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. ...FL... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL DATA SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 AT 500MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEST COAST. STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/GUYER.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 19:41:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 14:41:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505181951.j4IJpvsB019633@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181947 SWODY1 SPC AC 181945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW RST 10 E MCW 25 SSW SPW 30 SSE FSD 20 SW ATY 55 NW ABR 60 WSW DVL 70 NE MOT 55 W RRT BJI 35 NW RST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FNB 35 SW LWD 45 SSE IRK 30 SSW JEF FYV 40 W MLC SPS 25 SSW LTS 35 WSW CSM 20 NNE GAG 10 NE HUT 40 WSW FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE PSK 30 S CHO RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 20 SSW RDU 30 SW GSO 45 NE HKY 35 SE PSK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN 45 NNE GLH PBF 45 S HOT 20 NW TYR 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 25 W CNK 15 ENE OLU 15 SE YKN 10 NW MHE 20 NNW 9V9 55 N PHP 40 WSW Y22 45 W DIK 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GON 25 WSW EEN 10 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 35 SSE GTF 40 NW COD 20 SSE JAC 30 WNW MLD 20 WSW ENV 50 E U31 20 ENE NFL 35 ESE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 15 S MFR CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN OK INTO NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN NC INTO CNTRL VA... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... DEEPENING CONVECTION BENEATH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING EWD ACROSS NERN SD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE FROM NWRN IA...INTO NCNTRL ND. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITHIN THIS ZONE AND MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FILL IN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ...MO/KS/OK... EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS APPEARS TO BE THINNING AND SHIFTING SEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS NEAR THE SFC WIND SHIFT IN SWRN KS WHERE CU FIELD IS GRADUALLY THICKENING. WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM JUST AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW...NEWD INTO NERN KS. THIS ZONE SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE...CONVECTIVE-WISE WITH EARLY STORM MODE POSSIBLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH TIME...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW AN MCS TO EVOLVE BEFORE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS/WRN MO INTO NERN OK. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FAVOR LARGE HAIL BEFORE STRONG WINDS BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH MORE LINEAR MODE LATE THIS EVENING. ...VA/NC... STRONG HEATING HAS ALLOWED LOWEST 3 KM LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...ROUGHLY 8-9C/KM. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM WRN VA INTO WRN NC...AND EVEN A MATURING THUNDERSTORM IN SERN VA AT 1930Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...BUT SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 01:04:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 20:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505190115.j4J1FG9h028254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190111 SWODY1 SPC AC 190109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM STC 30 S ALO 25 SSE FOD RWF 35 WNW AXN 35 NNE AXN STC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E STJ 25 SSW UIN VIH 30 SSE UMN TUL 40 SE GAG GAG 40 NE ICT 20 E STJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNE LFT GWO PBF ADM ABI 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 50 SSE DDC FNB 20 ESE OMA 45 E SUX FSD HON ABR BIS P24 70 NNE ISN ...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 50 ENE DYR 0A8 AUO TRI SSU 40 NNE CHO 35 SW NHK 45 E RWI FLO 25 WNW AYS 45 NNW GNV 55 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 35 SSE GTF 40 NW COD 20 SSE JAC 30 WNW MLD 20 WSW ENV 50 E U31 20 ENE NFL 35 ESE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 15 S MFR CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GON 25 WSW EEN 10 WNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SMALL PART OF MN/IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MO VALLEY TO NWRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... MOST IMPORTANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/ND/SD BORDER JUNCTION. THIS LOW IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS MN TOWARD NWRN WI AND WRN LS OVERNIGHT...AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OZARK PLATEAU. PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN ND...WILL FOLLOW UPPER LOW INTO MN AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD OVER IA/NWRN MO/KS AND SWD ACROSS ERN HIGH PLAINS. DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT OVER NWRN OK AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX. ...S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO KC/TOP AREAS... REF WW 287 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. MOST FAVORABLE TIME WINDOW FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG SFC FRONT IS WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHILE MIXED-LAYER BUOYANCY REMAINS MAXIMIZED. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH 04Z AND STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL ABSOLUTE SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENHANCED LOCALLY THROUGH DISCRETE PROPAGATIONAL EFFECTS. GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SEWD TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING AND FUTURE NERN KS CONVECTION AND TRANSLATE EWD WHILE BACKBUILDING...RESULTING IN NET/SLOW SEWD SHIFT. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG FRONT/DRYLINE AS FAR AS SW OK. HOWEVER....PROBABILITIES DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT BECAUSE OF STRONGER CAPPING AND MORE SHORT-LIVED/ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND/HAIL THREAT. ...UPPER MIDWEST... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS INVOF SFC FRONT. INFLOW SHOULD BE FROM NARROW N-S CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN FRONT AND RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER ERN IA/MN. RECENT FUNNEL/TORNADO REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED IN AREAS OF ENHANCED STRETCHING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC HEATING...ALONG WITH AROUND 100 J/KG SFC-3 KM AGL CAPE. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM NOW ON...THOUGH SOME CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 05:50:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 00:50:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505190600.j4J60oQF021181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190558 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RFD CGX FWA ZZV MGW 20 ESE EKN ROA PSK LOZ BWG 25 SSW CKV TUP 35 NNW GWO PBF HOT PGO ADM OKC END ICT EMP MKC IRK 35 NW MLI RFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 35 ENE AUW DTW 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 20 ESE ECG 35 ESE RWI FLO 40 W SAV 25 SSE AYS 30 ESE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 30 SW GPT 45 E MCB 30 NNE HEZ SHV ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SE P07 25 ESE BGS 55 SSW GAG GAG 30 NNE P28 30 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM ALO MKT 55 SSW FAR 55 NE MBG 81V 40 NNE DGW 55 W BFF LAR RKS 30 ESE MLD 25 NW EKO 40 NNW SVE ACV ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 50 NE MSO 35 SE GTF 50 WSW GGW 55 N GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH VALLEY AND IL TO ERN OK/SERN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FCST TO MOVE NWD FROM NWRN MEX AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER AZ/NM...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING FROM THERE NEWD ACROSS MN. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN -- SHOULD TURN SEWD AND BECOME INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW. BY END OF PERIOD...THIS TROUGH SHOULD CROSS LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN POSITION OF ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER OR VORTICITY MAX IS LOW GIVEN GREAT DEGREE OF SPREAD IN 18/21 SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PROGS AND IN DISAGREEMENT AMONG 19/00Z OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ETA/NGM GUIDANCE. AT SFC...CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER MN IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT...CROSSING NRN IL DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. SECONDARY FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FARTHER E OVER OH/WV...GIVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN-WAVE CHARACTER AND FASTER TRACK OF TROUGH ALOFT. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN IA TO NWRN MO TO SWRN KS SHOULD DRIFT SEWD ACROSS MO/OK THROUGH PERIOD. SRN PLAINS PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TRACK OF MIDWESTERN MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT GEOMETRY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS OVER OUTLOOK AREA...AND ALSO...LOW LEVEL PROPAGATIONAL INFLUENCES ON CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. IN COMBINATION WITH DEPENDENCE ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INFLUENCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MODE AWAY FROM SFC FRONT...BROAD CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS WARRANTED ATTM. ...IL TO MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND OZARKS REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW -- WITH ADJOINING SEGMENTS OF BOTH COLD AND WARM FRONTS BEING MOST LIKELY FOCI. DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLE -- DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON -- SE OF SFC LOW. RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW NEAR WARM FRONT WILL ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLY...GENERATING 0-1 KM SRH OVER 100 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEARS 40-50 KT..AMIDST 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER IL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL EXTENDING SWD AFTER DARK TOWARD OZARKS AND/OR WRN TN/NRN MS REGION. GIVEN PREVAILING/INTENSIFYING NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF MIDWESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SWLY LLJ IN INFLOW REGION...ACTIVITY MAY BUILD WWD AS IT MOVES SWD OR SEWD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN NET SLY OR SSWLY MOTION TO PREFERRED INFLOW REGION OF ANY MCS. SUCH SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI MCS MOTION VECTORS DERIVED FROM ETA WIND FCSTS...AND PROGGED 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAX ACROSS OZARK REGION BY END OF PERIOD. SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT OVER INDIANA/OH/WV DURING DAY...MOVING ESEWD INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER W NEAR MAIN SFC LOW...HOWEVER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...LEWP/BOW FEATURES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...SRN PLAINS... SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL AND TIED TO YET-UNDEVELOPED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ALONG/AHEAD OF RESIDUAL SFC FRONT. ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER SERN KS MAY MOVE SEWD INTO NERN OK BY 19/12Z...PROVIDING ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW RELATED SOURCES OF LATER LIFT...IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AND FRONTOLYSIS UNDERWAY...WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STRONGER CINH WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL OK SWWD ACROSS WRN TX. THIS SHOULD MAKE CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO LATE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING PERIOD NEAR FRONT AND DRYLINE. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR A BRIEF INTERVAL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 12:49:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 07:49:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505191300.j4JD01R2004749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191257 SWODY1 SPC AC 191256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CGX 40 S SBN 40 ENE MIE 25 N UNI 35 SE PKB 35 NE SSU 20 SW ROA 45 SSW BLF 40 NNE TYS 45 W CSV 50 SW BNA 45 S MKL 50 NNE GLH 35 SSW PBF TXK PRX ADM OKC END 20 WNW ICT 30 WNW EMP MKC 35 E IRK MMO 25 SSE CGX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GPT 45 E MCB 30 NNE HEZ SHV ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SE P07 25 ESE BGS 55 SSW GAG GAG 35 SSW MHK 30 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM ALO MKT 55 SSW FAR 55 NE MBG 15 SE 81V 45 NE DGW 55 W BFF LAR RKS 45 NE EKO 35 NW U31 30 ESE TVL 40 WSW TVL 55 NNE SAC 45 E RBL 40 SSW MHS ACV ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 50 NE MSO 35 SE GTF 50 WSW GGW 55 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ECG 35 ESE RWI FLO 40 W SAV 25 SSE AYS 30 ESE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 20 N ELO 35 ENE AUW DTW 20 SE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN OK/KS... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN ERN ND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS IN IL THIS AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD THROUGH NRN MO/ERN KS...AND ACROSS NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH EWD FROM NRN IL ESEWD INTO VA. ...OHIO VALLEY... BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NWRN IND INTO CENTRAL IL IS LOCATED WITHIN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS MAINTAINING DRY ELY FLOW INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AND STORM INTENSIFICATION FROM SRN IL EWD INTO SRN IND/OH AND KY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL. ...IL SWWD MO/AR/ERN KS/ERN OK... ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT IN NRN/CENTRAL IL BY MID LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK CAP IS LIFTED BY INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT AND MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DEEP WLY FLOW ABOVE...INDICATIVE OF MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. CONVECTION IN ERN OK THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL PULLS NEWD OUT OF THE AREA. WITH HEATING... THE AIR MASS ACROSS MO/ERN KS/NWRN AR/ERN OK WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 3000 J/KG. DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT LEFTOVER BOUNDARY FROM OK CONVECTION AND STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS IS ACROSS MO/AR/SRN IL WHERE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW GLANCES AREA. THE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO A SWD MOVING LINE ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT AT THAT TIME. STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED ACROSS OK/KS AS THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...ND... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP ND...WHERE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT INITIATION AS MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT ADDED LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN CASE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BORDER. ..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 16:23:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 11:23:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505191634.j4JGY0Y6005365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191629 SWODY1 SPC AC 191628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N IRK MLI JVL MKE SBN FWA UNI BKW 35 SW BLF TRI CSV MEM PBF TXK PRX ADM OKC END ICT FLV 30 N IRK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GPT 20 SSE MCB 30 WSW HEZ 45 SSW SHV 15 S ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 70 SW P07 35 ESE BGS 40 W CSM 25 ENE GAG 35 SSW MHK 10 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM ALO 20 WNW MKT 50 SSW FAR 55 NE MBG 45 NNE PHP 60 SSW PHP 50 NNE LAR 25 NNW EVW 35 NNE ENV 10 N EKO 55 NNE WMC 70 SSE BNO 40 NE 4LW 30 SSE LMT 45 E ACV ACV ...CONT... 60 NNE FCA 60 S CTB 30 ESE GTF 50 WSW GGW 55 N GGW ...CONT... 25 WSW INL 45 NNE BRD 60 SSW DLH 40 E AUW 15 NE ARB 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 35 SE ECG 35 NNW EWN 15 ESE FLO 25 NW SAV 30 NNW JAX 35 E GNV 40 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS... ...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TODAY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MN/WI...AND TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO IL/MO/OK. AIRMASS FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE A REGION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL AID IN A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF KY/TN BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. PLEASE REFER TO MCD NUMBER 910 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. REMNANT MCS PERSISTS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF IND/OH. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO A RATHER STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS OVER OH AND POSE ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVITY NEAR OH RIVER MAY RE-INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN WV. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN IL...IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAP AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN SURGING SOUTHWARD BY THAT TIME...FOCUSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST ACROSS MO/IL AND EASTERN KS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. WESTWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO STRONGER CAP/WEAKER FORCING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN OUTLOOK AREA BASED ON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THIS AREA. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... WIDESPREAD MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE TN VALLEY...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...INTO THE CAROLINAS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 19:59:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 14:59:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505192010.j4JKAW8n019376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192004 SWODY1 SPC AC 192002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PRX 20 NNW DUA 30 SSE OKC 25 SSE END 30 NW PNC 20 SE EMP 40 SW IRK 15 SSW CID 35 W DBQ 25 SSW LNR 20 SSW MKE 40 W FDY 10 S CMH 15 WSW CRW 25 ENE 5I3 25 SSW 5I3 10 NW CSV PBF TXK 10 NE PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW INL 35 WSW HIB 55 S DLH 40 SE MTW 10 SW CLE 15 SSE MRB 15 SE SBY ...CONT... 30 SW CRE 20 N CHS 25 NW SAV 30 NNW JAX 30 ENE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 30 SW GPT 20 SSE MCB 30 WSW HEZ 45 SSW SHV 15 S ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSW P07 10 NW BGS 25 NNW CDS 25 WSW P28 20 E SLN 35 NE MHK 35 WSW LWD 25 WNW DSM FRM 50 N ATY 55 ENE MBG 20 SSW MBG 25 WSW PHP 30 SW DGW 50 WNW OGD 60 NE SVE 15 WSW EKA ...CONT... 60 NNE FCA 55 SSW CTB 20 SE GTF 25 NE LWT 25 WSW GGW 55 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER WI MOVING SEWD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXISTS FROM NRN IL EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IND. STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEED 40 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TORNADO THREAT ENHANCED IN CNTRL AND SRN IND WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREATS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAKER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH A TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE...MOVING SEWD ACROSS KY AND TN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE NEB WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NORTH TX EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN KS. ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL MO...SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SSEWD INTO ERN OK AND ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING IN SE KS SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 45 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE STORMS INITIATE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY ...VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREATS. ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 00:57:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 19:57:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505200108.j4K18VOc027951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200104 SWODY1 SPC AC 200102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSS RMG 40 S MSL TUP UOX 40 SW JBR UNO TBN JEF 25 NW UIN PIA RFD 35 ENE RFD CGX 25 SE CGX 10 E SBN CMH UNI 30 E 5I3 HSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 40 NNW CEW LUL HEZ 30 NNE SHV PRX 30 WNW ADM 45 SW END ICT MKC MLI LNR MSN MKG MTC DUJ DOV 40 E SBY ...CONT... 45 SSW CHS SAV 30 ESE AYS GNV 50 W ORL SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 N GFK GFK 50 NW ABR PHP DGW 50 S TWF OWY BNO RDM EUG 40 NW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF INDIANA/IL SEWD TO SRN APPALACHIANS AND SWWD TO ERN OZARK REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE REMAINS ANTICYCLONE OVER SWRN DESERTS --- WITH RIDGE NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILDING E OF THAT RIDGE...PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW NOW OVER WI/IL BORDER REGION WILL MOVE SEWD...CROSSING OH VALLEY AT INDIANA/KY BORDER BY END OF PERIOD. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN AND VEER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NWLY OR NNWLY OVER MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AT SFC...VERY COMPLEX PATTERN IS ANALYZED AND ONLY SUMMARIZED HERE. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LOOSELY EXTENDS FROM LOWER CHESAPEAKE/TIDEWATER REGION WNWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INDIANA TO SFC LOW OVER NRN IL...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NERN MO...NERN KS AND SWRN NEB. SFC CYCLONE SHOULD REDEVELOP EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER WV LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT REVERSING COURSE AND MOVING OVER KY AS COLD FRONT -- REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. NUMEROUS MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED BETWEEN NRN/WRN NC AND NRN IL...EFFECTIVELY ADJUSTING FRONTAL ZONE SWD IN SEGMENTED FASHION. VERY WEAK/RESIDUAL FRONT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY FROM SRN IL WSWWD ACROSS OZARKS TO SWRN KS AND N-CENTRAL OK...INTERSECTING DRYLINE OVER NWRN OK. ...GREAT LAKES STATES...LOWER OH AND MID MS VALLEYS... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL FROM NERN TN/ERN KY NWWD INTO IL. REF FOLLOWING SPC WATCHES -- 289..290...292...293...294 -- ALONG WITH LATEST RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR SHORT-TERM FCST DETAILS ON THIS SITUATION. TWO MCS SCENARIOS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE ATTM... 1. EVOLUTION OF LARGE KY CLUSTER AND SEWD MOTION ACROSS REMAINDER CENTRAL/ERN KY AND ERN TN...SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING SWD AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH TIME. 2. ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA MAY BACKBUILD WWD AS IT MOVES SEWD...RESULTING IN NET SWD MOTION IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LAST SEVERAL ETA RUNS OF CORFIDI MCS MOTION VECTORS. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS REMAINDER IL/INDIANA INTO WRN KY/TN AND PERHAPS ERN MO...ALONG AND W OF OUTFLOW FROM NUMBER 1. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT CONSIDERING VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS EVIDENT IN ILX RAOB. SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE EVIDENT FARTHER S FROM OZARKS TO TN VALLEY...S OF WEAK/SRN FRONT...WITH MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG. ...SRN PLAINS... WEAK CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING HAVE PRECLUDED ORGANIZED/DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/S OF WEAK SRN FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE...DESPITE POCKETS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID 60S-LOW 70S F DEW POINTS. ISOLATED AND VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER ERN OK...ESPECIALLY INVOF RESIDUAL N-S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUGGEST PROBABILITIES HAVE MARGINALIZED TO BELOW CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS. ....NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS. AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL BUOYANCY BECAUSE OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND RELATIVELY DRY SFC DEW POINTS 40S/50S F. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY GOES AWAY IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS WITH LOSS OF 2-3 DEG C SFC TEMPS. SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...BUT THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL UPGRADE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 05:51:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 00:51:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505200601.j4K61od6017614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200558 SWODY1 SPC AC 200557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI AXN BKX MHE 9V9 RAP 81V GCC SHR BIL 3HT LWT ISN MOT 75 NNW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S GPT MCB HEZ MLU 40 W GLH 35 ENE JBR 40 W HOP BWG CSV CHA RMG ATL MCN ABY AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ELO MSP FOD FNB SLN 40 SSW DDC EHA LHX 4FC OWY 4LW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 25 ESE CLL 50 W TYR 45 N PRX 45 SE TBN MVN CMH AOO ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MOST PROMINENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE SHARPLY DEFINED RIDGE FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS MN AND CENTRAL PLAINS....TO HIGH OVER SRN NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA. MEANWHILE BROAD UPPER CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD RETROGRADE WWD/SWWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN MARITIMES LOW AND CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN IL -- WILL ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE WA/ORE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...REACHING CENTRAL/ERN MT BY 21/12Z. SFC PATTERN WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE JUMBLED THAN THAT ALOFT...ESPECIALLY E OF MS RIVER. ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FROM ERN KY TO NRN TN...AND APCHG LOWER OH VALLEY FROM IL/INDIANA -- WILL STRONGLY INFLUENCE/ADJUST LOCATION OF DAY-1 SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH RESULTANT OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS MIDLEVEL MCV FEATURES. SYNOPTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NW-FLOW SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE SWD OVER MID-SOUTH AND OZARKS REGION...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY NWWD ACROSS KS/NEB...THEN WARM FRONT OVER DAKOTAS...CONNECTING WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. SFC LOW DEEPENING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER ERN MT/NERN WY AREA BENEATH SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND W OF MEAN RIDGE POSITION. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL INCLUDE STRONG WAA ACROSS NRN PLAINS THROUGHOUT PERIOD...AND 50-60 KT LLJ AFTER DARK OVER PORTIONS DAKOTAS. ...TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE GULF COAST... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE FEATURES YET TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GREATEST COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS PROGGED FROM MID TN SWD INTO CENTRAL/WRN AL AND NERN/E-CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AND/OR PERSIST/INTENSIFY FROM MORNING ACTIVITY...WITH STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT RESULTING IN SWD MOTION ACROSS REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS MID 60S F...WITH POCKETS INTO LOW 70S...WILL COMBINE WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLY LARGE LOW LEVEL FCST HODOGRAPH YIELD 0-1 KM AGL SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 J/KG...FROM CENTRAL AL TO SRN MID TN. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RIGHTWARD DEVIANCE ALONG BOUNDARIES AND LOW LCL...INDICATE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE STORMS. SHEAR/BUOYANCY PROFILES ALSO WILL SUPPORT SWD TO SSWWD MOVING MCS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS GULF COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN MT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF WRN ND/NWRN SD THIS AFTERNOON...IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS BOTH ARE POSSIBLE. MCS FROM EVENING ONWARD MAY CONCENTRATE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL REMAINING A THREAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY WEAKNESS INITIALLY. SFC DEW POINTS 40S/50S F AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD YIELD HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS...SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF SEVERE HAIL/DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD OFFSET LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH TO YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPES...THOUGH CAPPING MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF DAYTIME TSTMS. SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 40-50 KT WSW FLOW AT 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEARS AS HIGH AS 65-75 KT. FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE BACKED FROM WRN DAKOTAS WNWWD INTO ERN MT...AROUND NRN SEMICIRCLE OF SFC CYCLONE...YIELDING LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-3 KM SRH POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 200 J/KG. STRONG AND REASONABLE SIGNAL EXISTS IN SEVERAL SHORT-RANGE MODELS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21/00Z -- PROBABLY EVOLVING FROM ERN MT/WRN ND CONVECTION DURING EVENING AND ORGANIZING INTO WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING SYSTEM ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ACCOMPANY INTENSIFYING LLJ...ALLOWING FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AMIDST ENVIRONMENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ...SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT TO CAROLINAS COASTAL PLAIN... SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON -- BUT THREAT IS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WV...TN AND ERN KY SHOULD BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE/REINTENSIFY..OR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER THIS AREA. FOREGOING AIR MASS ACROSS PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST COMPARED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FARTHER W...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER SRN GA ADVECTING NEWD INTO THIS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DIURNAL SFC HEATING OVER ANY RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS...YIELDING MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX...AND/OR ACTIVITY FARTHER SW ACROSS MS/AL/TN -- MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING. ALSO...PROGGED WEAKNESS OF LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 12:36:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 07:36:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505201247.j4KClEMM028447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201245 SWODY1 SPC AC 201243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI AXN BKX MHE 9V9 RAP 81V GCC SHR BIL 3HT 10 N LWT 70 NE LWT 25 NNW MOT 75 NNW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E JAX 25 W CTY ...CONT... 30 S GPT 40 ESE MCB 20 S HEZ MLU 40 W GLH 20 ESE JBR 20 S PAH 20 E CKV 60 SSE TYS 45 WNW CAE 30 S FLO 40 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ELO MSP FOD 25 S OLU 25 SE MCK 20 NNE AKO 15 NE RWL 65 NW ENV 4LW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 40 SSW LFK 25 SW GGG 25 N TXK 45 NNE LIT 40 SW EVV 55 ESE LUK AOO ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN HI PLNS AND THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT SWRN STATES RIDGE WILL EXPAND SOMEWHAT NWD AND EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS COMPACT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEAR EVV CONTINUES SSE TO NEAR SAV. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING THE NRN CA/SRN ORE CST EXPECTED TO SWEEP ENE INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NRN HI PLNS ON SATURDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF GRT BASIN SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NRN HI PLNS TODAY. THE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL ND BY 12Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN PLNS...EXTENDING GENERALLY SSE FROM THE ND LOW. OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS. BY MID MORNING...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND IN A BROKEN ARC FROM NE NC TO SE GA. ANOTHER SEGMENT SHOULD REACH FROM NE GA INTO NRN AL. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ...LWR TN VLY SSE TO MIDDLE/ERN GULF CST... COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF TN/MS/AL AND GA. WLY LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW S OF BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO REGION...AND WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 - 8.0 DEG C PER KM/ AT MID LEVELS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING NNWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SHEAR AND CREATE A SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO WIND PROFILES. THUS...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SSE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME OF TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY ASSUME A LINEAR MODE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ASSOCIATED LEWPS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WILL YIELD LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. AT THE SAME TIME... REGION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND LIKELY WILL BE ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. THUS EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY S AND E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. WHILE THESE LATTER STORMS WILL ALSO ORGANIZE INTO LINES...SOME MAY REMAIN DISCRETE LONG ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND. WITH TIME...ALL OF THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE SSE-MOVING MCS. THIS SYSTEM MAY BACKBUILD SOMEWHAT W INTO SRN MS/SE LA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS ERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...ATL SEABOARD FROM NE SC TO SE VA... DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF ABOUT MYR IN WAKE OF ESE-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW CROSSING THE COASTAL PLN. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...NRN HI PLNS/NRN PLNS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL FORM WITH SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL AND SE MT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP A BIT LATER EWD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO WRN ND AND PERHAPS NW SD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO 40+ KT WSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH MEAN SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN S CNTRL MT TO AROUND 60 INVOF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN ND/NRN SD. BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...AND COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2000 J/KG. THUS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM. INCREASINGLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN SE MT. PERSISTENT FORCING PROVIDED BY BOTH DCVA WITH GRT BASIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION IN THE NRN PLNS...SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS OVER ND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND FOSTERS FORWARD PROPAGATION. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 15:54:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 10:54:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505201605.j4KG54CN012110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201554 SWODY1 SPC AC 201552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI AXN BKX MHE 9V9 RAP 81V GCC SHR BIL 3HT 10 N LWT 70 NE LWT 25 NNW MOT 75 NNW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S GPT 40 ESE MCB 20 S HEZ MLU 40 W GLH 35 SSW DYR 40 NE MKL 25 NW BNA 60 SSE TYS 15 WNW CAE 10 SSE FLO 10 SW ILM ...CONT... 10 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 15 NNE STC 30 SSW SPW 10 ESE OFK 15 ENE LBF 45 WNW CDR 20 WNW CPR 55 ESE OWY 40 E 4LW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HUM 15 ESE POE 35 NNE TYR 40 NNE ADM 25 NE TUL 25 SSE JBR 30 N LEX 25 SSW SHD WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SWRN U.S. WILL EXPAND EWD INTO PLAINS TODAY AS A FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS PAC NW TO NRN PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD. S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF SERN COAST TO NERN GULF BY 12Z SAT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM DELMARVA WWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF PAC NW S/WV WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SERN MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING ACROSS DAKOTAS TONIGHT. ...SERN STATES... A WARM AND MOIST SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDES TN VALLEY S/WV AND WEAK COOL FRONT. BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NOW INTO NRN GA/AL WILL FOCUS RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND ANY CAPPING DISSIPATES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD AHEAD OF COOL FRONT WRN TN. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE MULTICELL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SHORT LINES/BOWS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD NERN GULF COAST THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD ENHANCING SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION. ...NRN PLAINS... AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS VICINITY SERN MT/WY BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF S/W APPROACHING FROM THE W... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WRN DAKOTAS AND ERN MT. WITH 50 SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY AVAILABLE IN THIS AREA...STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO GENERATE MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN DAKOTAS. VEERING HODOGRAPHS WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ONCE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS INITIATED. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ERN MT 21-00Z PERIOD WITH STORMS THEN TRACKING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO OVERNIGHT MCS WHICH WILL CONTINUE DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS ND/NRN SD. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 19:57:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 14:57:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505202008.j4KK8Uw0031057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202001 SWODY1 SPC AC 202000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W INL 45 WNW BRD 25 ESE BKX 20 W FSD 60 SSW MHE 20 NNE VTN 35 NW RAP 50 NNE SHR 55 ENE BIL 75 E LWT 65 SW GGW 20 WNW OLF 60 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW MOB 25 W GPT 15 W MCB 30 ESE MLU 15 W GLH 40 WSW UOX 10 W MSL 50 WNW AHN 20 E ILM ...CONT... 15 ENE JAX 25 NNE CTY 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL STC 30 SSW SPW OFK 35 NNW BBW 25 W MHN 60 NE DGW 35 NNE CPR 25 E RIW 35 WNW RKS 20 SW OGD 65 NW ENV 80 SE BNO 25 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW BVE 30 W HUM POE 15 E GGG 25 ESE PRX 30 SSW PGO 50 NW LIT 35 NE DYR 35 E BWG 20 ESE JKL 20 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN US... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SERN US... THREE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES ARE ONGOING ACROSS AL..GA AND SC. THE LINES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MS EXTENDING ESEWD TO SRN SC WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD THIS EVENING...THE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST ASCENT LOCATED ACROSS GA WHERE THE LARGEST CONVECTIVE LINE IS LOCATED. A MOIST AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC AND THIS COMBINED WITH VEERED SFC WINDS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE LINE MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GA AND SRN SC. FARTHER WEST IN CNTRL AL AND ERN MS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES PARTIALLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL JET NOSING SWD THROUGH THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN 850 MB JET IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER CNTRL AL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN MS...SRN AR AND NRN LA...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NRN WY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW SD AND CNTRL ND. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STRONG ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F AND SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS NEAR THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. BACKED SFC WINDS IN SERN MT AND SWRN ND WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND TRACK ENEWD NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AS STRONG ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL CONTINUING THROUGH LATE EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO FAR WRN MN LATE. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 01:05:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 20:05:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505210116.j4L1GRpM024956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210113 SWODY1 SPC AC 210111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 30 SE AXN FSD 60 SSW MHE 35 NNE CDR GCC 40 NW COD 35 WNW 3HT 60 ENE LWT 55 NNW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX GNV 30 S CTY ...CONT... 30 S BVE 35 N LFT 55 WSW MLU ELD 30 NE ELD MGM 40 ESE MCN 45 SSE AGS 20 ESE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL STC SPW OFK 35 NNW BBW MHN 60 NE DGW 35 NNE CPR RIW BPI OGD 65 NW ENV 45 ENE EUG CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM LFT POE SHV HOT PBF HSV 15 NW TYS 20 NNW HKY FAY HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DAKOTAS....ERN MT...NERN WY...WRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE RIDGE -- EXTENDING FROM SERN AZ/SWRN NM NEWD ACROSS MN TO HUDSON BAY AREA -- REMAINS DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE. BELT OF NNWLY TO NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF ERN CONUS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND GA. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE CAROLINAS COAST BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WSWLY JET CORE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM PACIFIC NW ENEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER WA/ORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS WRN MT TONIGHT. AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE OVER SERN CONUS HAS BEEN MODULATED BY COLLECTIVE SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURVING FROM OFFSHORE SC WWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS GA/AL...WITH SFC TROUGH WWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN MS. FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED NWWD OVER OZARKS THEN NNWWD TOWARD MN/DAKOTAS BORDER REGION. SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NERN ND SWWD TO EXTREME NWRN SD...NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF WELL DEFINED SUPERCELL...THEN STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER WSWWD INTO LEE-SIDE CYCLONE OVER EXTREME N-CENTRAL WY. SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS ND TONIGHT...WITH FRONT STALLING 100-150 NM TO ITS ENE. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM NRN WY LOW ESEWD TO SWRN PERIPHERY OF BLACK HILLS...THEN SSEWD INTO WRN KS. ...SERN CONUS... SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW/TROUGH BOUNDARIES...MOVING SWD TOWARD GULF COAST. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...AND CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR GIVEN NLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. REF SPC WWS 302...304 AND 306 -- ALONG WITH RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS -- FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER APPROXIMATELY 06Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE...AND AS ANY REMAINING INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER NOT AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS STABILIZES FROM DIABATIC SFC COOLING EFFECTS. ...NRN PLAINS... TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE 1. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ERN ND/NWRN MN BETWEEN FRONTS...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS...AND 2. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM NWRN SD ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR RELATED TO BACKED FLOW ALONG/BEHIND FRONT. MT ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN OR BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES INTO POCKET OF MINIMIZED SFC THETAE ANALYZED NEAR GDV. MEANWHILE DAMAGING HAIL/WIND ARE DISTINCT THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY...AND TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REF SPC WWS 303/305 AND LATEST ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO REMAIN OPTIMIZED ALONG BOTH FRONTS...ENHANCING SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AS LONG AS ACTIVITY REMAINS DISCRETE. MCS IS FCST TO EVOLVE FROM WRN ND/NWRN SD AREA ENEWD ACROSS MAINLY ND TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. BOTH AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL STRADDLE AXIS OF 50-60 KT LLJ AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM-RELATIVE FLOWS JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW -- WRN COMPLEX SHOULD POSE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK. ...SRN ID... COMBINATION OF DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF WA/ORE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. MODIFIED BOI RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER BENEATH 400-700 J/KG MLCAPE..AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WHEN SFC COOLING REMOVES MOST MLCAPE AND STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 05:48:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 00:48:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505210559.j4L5x3sx003225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210557 SWODY1 SPC AC 210555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 35 E AUW DBQ 35 SSE IRK SGF UMN BVO 35 NE ICT HUT 45 NNE DDC HLC 30 ESE BBW 50 SW YKN ATY FAR DVL 80 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB ORH 10 WSW BID ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF LYH 25 ENE SSU 30 W MGW YNG 25 NNE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB CEW ABY 30 WSW CHS 30 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE ANJ LAN BMG POF 20 WSW PBF 45 SE PGO 10 WNW MLC OKC AMA 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 15 WSW DEN 15 NW FCL CYS SNY 40 SSW ANW 9V9 45 NNE MBG MLS 40 NE LWT 25 N HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER-MID MO VALLEY...CENTRAL/NERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE -- EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWRN NM/SERN AZ. MEAN RIDGE WILL BE PENETRATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WA/ORE/ID. BY 22/00Z...THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW OVER SRN MB -- WITH ROUGHLY 130 KT UPPER JET ACROSS PORTIONS MT/DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW SHOULD TURN SEWD TOWARD NRN MN BY END OF PERIOD. AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW DEEPENING OVER SERN MT/NERN WY WILL LIFT NEWD AND BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH UPPER LOW EARLY IN PERIOD...AS SFC COLD FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN. FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB AND SWD OVER ERN CO...REACHING WI...NWRN MO...AND S-CENTRAL/SWRN KS BY 22/12Z. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW- REINFORCED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD ACROSS NRN FL. NWRN SEGMENT OF SAME FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND NEARLY MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED FROM SRN MO ACROSS WRN IA INTO SRN MN. ...CENTRAL/NERN PLAINS... SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD BETWEEN ERN SD AND NERN ND...WITH WIND DAMAGE MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON INVOF COLD FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 AND 0-3 KM SRH ABOVE 150 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60-70 KT OVER W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BE NEAR CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH MAY HELP TO OFFSET EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AGAINST LOW LEVEL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WIND...A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...CAP STRENGTH WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN LATER AND PERHAPS MORE DISCRETE SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA HAS GREATEST PROBABILITY OF DEEP SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. MEAN WIND WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY NORMAL TO ORIENTATION OF FORCING BOUNDARY...INDICATING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS FOR LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME. MOST FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND FOREGOING QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...FROM SRN MN SWD. SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE MID 50S TO MID 60S F OVER MOST OF THIS ZONE...WHICH WILL BE INFLOW REGION FOR ANY NEAR-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. FCST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS WRN IA -- INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT -- INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG...AMIDST 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STRENGTHENING CAP AND WEAKENING SHEAR FARTHER SW INTO SERN NEB AND NRN/WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY REDUCED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE PROBABILITIES. MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK IN REGION FROM WRN/CENTRAL IA SWD THROUGH MO VALLEY TOWARD NWRN MO/NERN KS...NEAR NOSE OF 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. PROGGED MCS MOTION VECTORS FROM LATEST ETA AND ETA-KF RUNS INDICATE SWWD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WITH SSEWD STEERING FLOW...WITH NET MOTION GENERALLY SWD ACROSS MO AND/OR ERN KS. ELEVATED MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN INFLOW REGION. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE. MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION THAN PROGGED BY ETA/SPECTRAL WOULD RESULT IN FASTER/MORE SLY MOTION...THEREFORE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OZARKS. ...NRN/ERN FL... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INVOF RESIDUAL FRONT AND SEA BREEZE. E COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO SHORE GIVEN PREVAILING PREFRONTAL WLYS IN BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN NEGATIVE EFFECT OF THOSE WLYS ON CONVERGENCE AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR....ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES POSSIBLE. MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIOD INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. ..EDWARDS/TAYLOR.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 12:43:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 07:43:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505211253.j4LCrc6c006257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211249 SWODY1 SPC AC 211248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 35 E AUW DBQ 25 SW BRL 15 NNE TBN 10 SSE SGF 30 WNW JLN HUT 45 NNE DDC 15 NW HLC 25 NNW GRI 30 SW YKN ATY FAR DVL 80 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF LYH 25 ENE SSU 30 W MGW YNG 25 NNE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB ORH 10 WSW BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE APN 15 N FNT 50 N SDF 25 NNW DYR 50 SW ARG 45 NNW HOT 40 SSW TUL 35 NW PNC 30 N LBL 30 ESE RTN 45 SW PUB 40 NW COS 15 NW FCL 15 ESE CYS SNY 40 SSW ANW 30 SW 9V9 35 NW MBG 30 SSE DIK 25 ENE GDV 50 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB CEW 30 SW ABY 30 NNE AYS 30 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY SWD INTO THE MID/LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT SWRN STATES RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION THIS PERIOD AS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE NRN HI PLNS CONTINUES E ACROSS ND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SOMEWHAT S OF E LATER IN THE PERIOD AS BLOCK HOLDS FIRM OVER NRN QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL ND SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES TOWARD LK WINNIPEG LATER TODAY/EARLY SUNDAY. NRN PART OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E INTO WRN MN BY THIS EVENING...AND INTO WI/NW IL BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MORE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE MORE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE MID AND LWR MO VLYS. BLOCKING PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP N/S WARM FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPR MS VLY...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME NEWD ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. ...CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... MCS WITH EMBEDDED MCV NOW OVER NERN ND HAS MOVED BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT HEADS ENE TO THE INL AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS EXTENDING S FROM THE MCV INTO IA SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY E WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF THE WA/ORE CST HAS UNDERGONE STRONG DEEPENING OVERNIGHT. THIS...IN TURN... SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM NRN PLNS IMPULSE. AS A RESULT...STOUT CAP WILL LIKELY PERSIST...AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN...OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY REGION S OF ASSOCIATED JET MAX CROSSING THE NRN PLNS. SEWD ADVANCE OF NRN PLNS COLD FRONT...AND PRECIPITATION INTO DRY CP AIR MASS ADVECTING NWWD FROM THE MID MS VLY...WILL KEEP AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER SLIGHT RISK AREA VERY CONFINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVERAGE DEWPOINTS SHOULD...NEVERTHELESS... RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S LATER TODAY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A NARROW AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO KS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION FROM THE RED RVR VLY SWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA. COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...EXPECT THAT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR FROM N TO S ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP W TO NWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA. WHILE LINEAR FORCING OF COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN MN...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS. THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE NEB/NW IA...AS CAP IS BREACHED IN REGION OF MAXIMUM SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM IN ERN NEB/IA AND NRN MO LATER THIS EVENING AS SEWD TURN OF NRN PLNS IMPULSE LOWERS HEIGHTS ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT COULD EXTEND A RISK FOR HIGH WIND S/SW INTO CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF KS/MO EARLY SUNDAY. ..NRN/ERN FL... SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF RESIDUAL COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PART OF THE STATE AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. E COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO SHORE GIVEN PREVAILING PREFRONTAL WLYS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW TO MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK....AND MORNING RAOBS SHOW RATHER LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES. THUS...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AS AVERAGE MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 16:19:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 11:19:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505211630.j4LGUPh7009927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211622 SWODY1 SPC AC 211620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 35 E AUW DBQ 25 SW BRL 15 NNE TBN 10 SSE SGF 30 WNW JLN HUT 45 NNE DDC 15 NW HLC 25 NNW GRI 30 SW YKN ATY 15 W FAR 35 WSW GFK 45 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 25 E ISP ...CONT... 20 SSE ORF 20 SSE CHO 25 E PIT 55 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 20 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 40 WSW SDF 25 NNW DYR OKC 40 SW GAG EHA 15 SE IML 20 NNE ANW 20 N MBG 75 WNW MLS 50 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGHS MOVING IN THE STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SWRN U.S. WHILE IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS FOR MAY HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT OFF THE PAC NW COAST...THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM ALSO IS INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS EWD ALONG CANADIAN/NCENTRAL U.S. BORDER. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ND WILL DEEPEN NEWD INTO SRN MANITOBA TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW CENTRAL DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB. WITH SUPPORT FROM A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX TO NEAR 90KT AT 500MB CROSSING ERN MT...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO ERN NEB AND TRAILING WWD INTO ERN CO BY THIS EVENING. COLD UPPER LOW VICINITY SRN NEW ENGLAND MOVES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...NE/IA/KS/MO... MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS ELEVATED MIX LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE TRANSPORT...GIVEN THE OBSERVED DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 60S F ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS FAR N AS ERN NEB/WRN IA. EROSION OF THE EXISTING STRONG CAP WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON THRU STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF COLD FRONT ERN NEB. TIMING OF INITIATION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE CAP ERODES...AND ATTM STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 22Z. VERY LARGE HAIL TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL...WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY HIGH LCL'S IN THE VERY WARM AIR MASS. SEVERE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A S/SEWD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT...FEEDING ON THE CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF UNSTABLE AIRMASS THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BECOME PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO NERN KS/MO AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN MN DURING AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT HEATING LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE AS OVERNIGHT MCS DEBRIS MOVES ON TO THE E TO ALLOW FOR GOOD SURFACE HEATING INTO WRN MN. COMBINATION OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND HEATING...AGAIN THE STRONG CAP THIS MORNING NOTED ON ABR SOUNDING SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE ALLOWING STORM INITIATION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT VICINITY ND/MN BORDER. WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY THIS AREA...THE LOWER LCL'S AND GREATER SHEAR SUPPORT AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOS ALONG WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MORE LINEAR CONVECTION MODE DURING EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING PRIMARY THREAT. ...MID ATLANTIC... UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WRN NY/NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. SFC AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES / -20 TO -24 DEG C AT 500 MB / ABOVE THIS LOW LEVEL PROFILE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...500 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. 12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S OVER NRN VA/MD AND DE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND NAMKF DO NOT SHOW THIS. IF THESE CONDITIONS DO INDEED OCCUR...SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT AND SVR HAIL PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT THESE WILL NOT BE INCLUDED ATTM. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 20:05:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 15:05:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505212015.j4LKFfwM014158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212001 SWODY1 SPC AC 211959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CMX 35 ESE AUW 40 N PIA 25 SW STL 25 SSE TBN 10 SSW UMN 30 ENE PNC 10 NNE P28 35 SSW RSL 40 E HLC 10 NW HSI 30 N OFK 20 SE BKX 65 S FAR 40 WNW GFK 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 35 SW NHK 10 ENE CHO 25 SSE MGW 10 NNW PIT 30 NNW ERI ...CONT... 30 WNW EFK 25 ENE LEB ORH 20 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW ANJ 25 WNW BEH 30 SE MVN 40 SE POF 55 NW LIT 25 N MLC 25 WSW OKC 45 SW GAG 25 SW LBL 45 N EHA 50 S GLD 35 N GLD 45 E ANW 20 SE HON 35 WNW ATY 35 W JMS 50 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 20 SE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU... ...MN/WI/ERN DAKOTAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO ERN ND. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MN REACHING WI BY LATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS WRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN MN AND THIS SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. AS SBCAPE VALUES INCREASE AND STRONG ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL MN THIS EVENING. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO WI LATER TONIGHT...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. ...ERN NEB/IA/KS/MO... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM SRN KS EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN NEB WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF EXPANDING CUMULUS. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP IN ERN NEB AND SPREAD SEWD INTO SW IA AND FAR NE KS. PROFILERS IN NE NEB CURRENTLY SHOW 45 KTS AT 6 KM WHICH IS CREATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN SE NEB AND NE KS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS. A STORM CLUSTER SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINEAR MCS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY HELP SUSTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MCS TRACKS INTO CNTRL MO AND SE KS. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 00:57:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 19:57:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505220107.j4M17gew013810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220103 SWODY1 SPC AC 220101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RSL 35 W LNK 20 E OFK 25 S FSD 25 NNE FSD FRM ALO BRL 45 WNW STL TBN UMN TUL END 40 SSW RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE 7R4 HUM 25 WSW BVE 35 S BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CTY DAB ...CONT... 55 SSW MIA 45 W PBI 20 WSW AGR 15 SSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 45 N SHD LBE 30 ENE FKL 25 ESE ROC UCA 35 SE GFL 20 ENE BDL 25 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCS 85 NW TCS GNT ABQ 40 SW 4CR TCS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE MQT MTW MKE CGX LAF IND 35 S BMG EVV POF FSM 55 WNW MLC GAG LBL GCK 35 E GRI FSD 45 W AXN FAR P24 65 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN IA/WRN MO... ...SYNOPSIS... SFC AND UPPER AIR CHARTS ARE DOMINATED SYNOPTICALLY BY THREE DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC...VERTICALLY STACKED...NRN-STREAM CYCLONES -- CENTERED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWRN MANITOBA...AND OFFSHORE VANCOUVER ISLAND. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SWRN NM DOMINATES PATTERN ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS. AT SFC...OCCLUDED FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWD TO SWRN MN..COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS ERN NEB...N-CENTRAL KS AND SERN CO. EXPECT COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MN AND MUCH OF IA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AND SEWD INTO NWRN MO AND S-CENTRAL KS. STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...LEFT BEHIND BY E COAST SYSTEM...EXTENDS SWD FROM SWRN MN ACROSS EXTREME WRN IA...SSEWD ACROSS MKC AREA INTO OZARKS. THIS FEATURE MAY DRIFT EWD BEFORE BEING CAUGHT BY COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT OVER IA...AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER OZARKS. IN BETWEEN THESE FRONTS...DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. WRN DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER N-CENTRAL KS SWWD TO OK PANHANDLE THEN GENERALLY SWD ACROSS W TX. ERN DRYLINE -- FROM EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB SWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK -- DENOTES BOUNDARY BETWEEN SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S W OF STATIONARY FRONT...AND MORE STRONGLY HEATED/MIXED AIR MASS WITH 50S F DEW POINTS OVER WRN PORTIONS OK/KS. ERN DRYLINE HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE OVER OK...A TREND THAT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY OVER KS UNTIL BOTH DRYLINES ARE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... REF SPC WW 311 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO. LINE OF HIGH BASED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS...ALONG SFC FRONT AND BETWEEN DRYLINES WHERE FRONTAL ASCENT AND INTENSE HEATING/MIXING HAVE REALIZED 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED DDC RAOB. FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...OUTLOOK REMAINS STRONGLY CONDITIONAL. STRONG/DEEP CAPPING LAYER EVIDENT FOR ML PARCELS IN 00Z OAX/TOP RAOBS IS GREATLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION. ANY SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT NEXT 1-2 HOURS -- BEFORE NEAR-SFC LAYER DIABATICALLY STABILIZES -- LIKELY REQUIRES LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN FRONTAL ASCENT. AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...SEVERE GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES...GIVEN A SUSTAINED TSTM. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY OVER AND E OF WARM/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR MCS TO EVOLVE FROM KS ACTIVITY AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG/E OF WARM/STATIONARY FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED FARTHER N WHERE OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AIR MASS. ISOLATED HAIL STILL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY ELEVATED ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT ANTICIPATED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 05:46:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 00:46:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505220556.j4M5uS4J015208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220554 SWODY1 SPC AC 220552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW ANJ PLN DTW CMH HTS JKL LOZ BNA MEM HOT 40 S MLC FSI CSM GAG P28 25 NNW JLN TBN BLV MTO LAF SBN MKG MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV MGM 45 NW JAN 40 NNW MWL BGS INK 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 20 NW ELP 30 WSW 4CR ABQ 30 SSE GUC 25 WSW 4FC 40 SW LAR DGW 50 WNW CDR 25 SW CDR SNY 10 NW GLD 55 NW GCK SLN OJC 45 WNW STL 25 WSW DEC BMI 80 NNW CMX ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 15 SW CAK 45 E LYH 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30 S AGR MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OK TO LOWER OH VALLEY...THEN NWD OVER PORTIONS MI... ...SYNOPSIS... MOST PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SWRN NM...AND PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND. UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN MB/NERN ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO TURN SEWD OUT OF LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION AND ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES STATES EARLY IN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BECOME OPEN-WAVE TROUGH -- ENTRAINED INTO SWRN QUADRANT OF CYCLONIC FLOW BELT ENCIRCLING GREAT LAKES VORTEX -- AROUND END OF PERIOD. BROAD PLUME OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER CONUS BETWEEN CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MID-ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGION. AT SFC...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM N-CENTRAL MN TO SERN NEB...S-CENTRAL KS...NERN NM. BY 23/00Z THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN NM EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL OK...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OVER OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...AND EWD ACROSS REGION AROUND LM. ...SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS... INTENSE SFC HEATING AND MIXING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE INITIALLY STRONG CAP THROUGHOUT DAY...RESULTING IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG PORTIONS FRONTAL ZONE. MOST PROBABLE TIME WINDOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IS 22/21Z-23/01Z. POCKETS OF UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR REGION BASED ON CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS AND PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/MIXING CHARACTERISTICS. SFC DEW POINTS IN INFLOW LAYER...ALONG WITH MLCAPES...WILL LESSEN WITH WWD EXTENT FROM THERE...BUT STILL SHOULD BE IN 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS. BUOYANCY WILL WEAKEN EWD ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO BECAUSE OF LOWER SFC THETAE...HOWEVER SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. ONE OR TWO MCS MAY EVOLVE DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING SWD OR SEWD OVER ERN OK/AR WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... RESIDUAL SFC-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE NOW ORIENTED NEARLY MERIDIONALLY FROM SRN MN SWD ACROSS MO AND AR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AMIDST PREVAILING WLY/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE NOW TO ITS E WILL REMAIN COMMON IN MANY AREAS OF OH VALLEY AND E OF MS RIVER...WITH NARROW PLUME OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED 60S F SFC DEW POINTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY RELATIVE TO SRN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION...HOWEVER WEAKER CINH AND FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FORCE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. BUOYANCY WILL BE MARGINAL...PEAK MLCAPES UNDER 1000 J/KG FROM ABOUT CENTRAL INDIANA/ERN IL NWD AND UNDER 1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS LIKELY WILL LIMIT GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITHIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. EVEN THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT -- LIMITING NEAR FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE AND FIXED-LAYER 0-6 KM SHEARS 60-70 KT FROM SRN IL/INDIANA SWWD ACROSS WRN KY/MO BOOTHEEL REGION. ...FRONT RANGE...CO/NRN NM... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM COMBINATION OF 1. OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE ASCENT IN SOME AREAS AND 2. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT I-25 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY CYS-LVS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...WHICH ALSO WILL BE IN INCREASINGLY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED INFLOW LAYERS...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS FROM MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ...WRN CAROLINAS... PROGGED AFTERNOON HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS 50S F PRODUCE NEARLY UNCAPPED FCST SOUNDINGS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...AMIDST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...HOWEVER MLCAPES APCHG 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALES. 40 KT MIDLEVEL NWLYS AND VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORT ANY HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED TO REACH SFC UNDER MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. LACK OF BOTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HIGHER CAPE PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 12:36:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 07:36:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505221246.j4MCkbKL032083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221243 SWODY1 SPC AC 221242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW ANJ PLN DTW CMH HTS JKL LOZ BNA MEM HOT 40 S MLC FSI CSM GAG P28 25 NNW JLN TBN BLV MTO LAF SBN MKG MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV 40 SSE CSG 45 NW JAN 40 NNW MWL 15 N BGS INK 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 20 NW ELP 15 SW 4CR 10 N ABQ 30 SSE GUC 25 WSW 4FC 40 SW LAR 15 NE DGW 50 WNW CDR 25 SW CDR 25 NNW SNY 10 NW GLD 55 NW GCK 15 ESE SLN 25 ENE SZL 45 WNW STL 20 W SPI 25 E PIA 10 WSW JVL 30 NNE RHI 40 W CMX 80 NNW CMX ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 15 SW CAK 45 E LYH 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30 S AGR MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MI AND THE LWR OH VLY SW INTO THE OZARKS/SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER IMPULSE WHICH CRESTED SWRN STATES RIDGE YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED NEAR INL. SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHEARS SE ACROSS THE WI LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF NRN QUEBEC BLOCK. FARTHER W... STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEARING VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO AB/SASK...SERVING TO FURTHER FLATTEN SWRN RIDGE. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NOW CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SE ACROSS THE OH VLY. SWRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY SHOULD DECELERATE AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN PARTS OF AR AND OK BY 12Z MONDAY. ...SRN PLNS/OZARKS... TSTMS NOW OVER SRN MO/NRN AR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROWING ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WLY BRANCH OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE JET WEAKENS A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP INVOF WEAKENING FRONT SETTLING S INTO THE SRN PLNS AND NRN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NO APPARENT SMALL SCALE IMPULSE UPSTREAM TO ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT. BUT COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK STRONG CAP AND INITIATE A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS OVER NRN OK...NRN AR AND SW MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STORM GUST FRONTS AS THE BOUNDARIES MOVE GENERALLY S/SE INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MID LEVEL NNW FLOW WILL BE MODEST ON EDGE OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE ...AMPLE /30-35 KT/ DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN AR/MO. STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN MODEST...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO EXTEND A LIMITED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL SE ALONG PERIPHERY OF CAP INTO NRN MS BY EARLY MONDAY. ...GRT LKS/LWR OH VLY INTO SE MO... MORE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT CROSSING MI IL/IND AND WRN KY. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG IN MI TO AROUND I500 J/KG IN SRN IL/WRN IND. THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN A SUFFICIENT DEGREE OF UPLIFT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE LATTER POINT. WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LIKELY TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOBE OF VORTICITY WELL DEPICTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM CROSSING CNTRL WI. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND GFS GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST DCVA WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO MI AND NRN IND. POINTS FARTHER SW SHOULD REMAIN ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET...ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN MI INTO SRN IL/IND/SE MO...WHERE 40-50 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO SURFACE FRONT. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BUT OVERALL SETUP SUPPORTS FORECAST OF AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...FRONT RANGE... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ZONE OF OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT/STRONG HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CNTRL RCKYS. DEEP SHEAR WILL DECREASE FROM SRN WY INTO SRN CO/NRN NM...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THROUGHOUT REGION FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED...PROMOTING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...N GA/WRN CAROLINAS... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN UNCAPPED...WEAKLY CONFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SRN APLCNS. 30-40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE THREAT. WELL-MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYERS MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH SOME STORMS. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 16:09:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 11:09:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505221619.j4MGJwPO026648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221610 SWODY1 SPC AC 221609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PGO 35 SE OKC 35 SSE GAG 25 NNW GAG 25 WNW P28 40 ENE CNU 50 S SZL BLV 10 SSE LAF 20 ENE SBN GRR 20 N LAN 10 SSW DTW 55 E LUK 20 N JKL 20 SW LOZ 15 NW PGO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ERI LBE 15 E CHO 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 70 SSW GGW 20 N BIL 25 SSE LVM 20 WSW DLN 50 NNE 27U 20 NW 3DU 60 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 50 NE DRO 40 SW LAR 15 NE DGW 50 WNW CDR 25 SW CDR 25 NNW SNY 30 S IML HLC 15 ESE SLN 25 ENE SZL 45 WNW STL 15 NNE SPI 35 ESE MMO 30 ESE MKE 20 SE MTW 30 NE RHI RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PIE 20 ESE AGR 20 SSE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV 30 N MCN 25 W ELD 15 ENE LTS 30 ESE PVW 25 SSE HOB 65 SSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY TO PORTION OF PLAINS STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER CONUS DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SW AND COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER NERN STATES. STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU WI AND THEN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO NRN TX PANHANDLE. ONTARIO SYSTEM WILL HEAD SEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OH VALLEY AND BECOMING STATIONARY WWD THRU SRN MO AND NRN OK BY THIS EVENING. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL E/W VICINITY SRN MO AND SRN KS/NRN OK. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THRU THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. MLCAPES UPWARD TO 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG WLYS TO THE N...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN INITIATE ALONG BOUNDARY. THE CAP SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ONCE SFC TEMPS REACH UPPER 90S BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...INITIATION COULD OCCUR VICINITY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP AS BASES WILL BE HIGH LIMITING TORNADO THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND PROPAGATE INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN OK INTO AR. AS MODE EVOLVES MORE INTO AN MCS AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ...OH VALLEY... WILL HOLD ONTO A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS OH VALLEY...HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SPREADING SEWD WITH THE S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES...STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD STILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL. ...E SLOPES CENTRAL ROCKIES... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED WWD TO FRONT RANGE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500 J/KG OR HIGHER ALONG FRONT RANGE. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE MOVING OFF FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TOO FAR OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CONSIDER ADDING A SLIGHT IN 20Z OUTLOOK IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS THAN NOW EXPECTED COULD OCCUR. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 20:03:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 15:03:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505222013.j4MKDxJi006189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221958 SWODY1 SPC AC 221956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MLC 20 ENE CSM GAG 50 N GAG 35 WNW P28 25 SW HUT 50 ENE CNU 20 W SLO 25 SE DNV 40 NE LAF 20 NW FWA 35 E FWA 45 S FDY 45 SW CMH 40 E LEX 45 ESE BWG 50 ENE MKL 50 NNE LIT 25 NE MLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAV 20 SSW AGS 45 SE AHN 20 SSW GLH 20 SW TXK 40 N DAL 45 W SPS 30 SW CDS 25 NW LBB 25 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 45 NW ONM 40 SW LAR 35 S DGW 50 ESE DGW 20 WNW AIA 25 E SNY 35 SW MCK 20 ESE HLC 20 ENE SLN 10 ENE OJC 25 WSW SPI 45 SE MMO 35 ESE MKE 15 ESE MTW 30 NE RHI RRT ...CONT... 25 WNW ERI 25 WSW LBE 15 NNE SHD 10 SW RIC 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 70 SSW GGW 20 N BIL 25 SSE LVM 20 WSW DLN 50 NNE 27U 20 NW 3DU 50 ENE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 35 NW AGR 35 SW VRB 15 SSE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER FAR WRN KS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS FAR NWRN OK EXTENDING INTO FAR SE KS AND SW MO. CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK ASCENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SCATTERED STORM INITIATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS AND LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF WRN KS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM THE FRONT SWD WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE 4000 TO 5000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AND LOWER 70S F. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FROM THE BOUNDARY NWD WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT MOSTLY DUE TO STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE STORMS INITIATE. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY WOULD MAKE VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR SRN KS AND FAR NRN OK. OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR TONIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY. ...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... NW FLOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS IND...SRN IL INTO ERN MO. AS INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND SPREAD SEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...ERN CO.. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MTNS WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE CO PLAINS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED CONSIDERING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS VERY WEAK. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE A HAIL POTENTIAL CONSIDERING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.5 C/KM. ..BROYLES.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 00:55:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 19:55:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505230106.j4N16Eo2007236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230102 SWODY1 SPC AC 230100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUT 25 SE EMP 45 NNE JLN 40 NE HRO 60 S UNO 45 NNE LIT 25 SSW LIT 30 W HOT 10 W PGO 45 SW TUL 30 SSE END 35 E GAG 40 WSW P28 35 WSW HUT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 75 SSW GNT 35 ENE GNT 35 NE 4SL 20 S ALS 20 ENE ASE 40 SW LAR 35 S DGW 50 ESE DGW 20 WNW AIA 25 E SNY 35 SW MCK 20 ESE HLC 20 ENE SLN 15 SW VIH 30 SSE BLV 20 NE HUF 40 ESE SBN 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 25 WNW ERI 25 WSW LBE 15 NNE SHD 10 SW RIC 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 20 SSW AGS 45 SE AHN 40 SW 0A8 25 NNE MLU 40 N DAL 45 W SPS 30 SW CDS 25 NW LBB 25 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 80 E LWT 40 ENE WEY 15 SW PIH 45 ENE OWY 35 SSW BOI 45 SW 3DU 10 ENE 3TH 35 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR... ...NRN-ERN OK/SRN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS FAR NRN OK AND EWD TO NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER REGION. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AR EXTENDED FROM THIS COMPLEX WWD TO NEAR FSM AND THEN NNWWD TO NE OF TUL AND INTERSECTED THE E-W SYNOPTIC FRONT. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAD BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE THIS INSTABILITY AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATED CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE BASED STORMS THUS FAR. PRIND ARE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE E-W FRONT ACROSS FAR NRN OK INTO SRN KS THIS EVENING AS A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30 KT AND NOSES INTO NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL OK. STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN MCS OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS THE LLJ VEERS TO SWLY OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD ALONG/N OF SYNOPTIC AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO ERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...LOWER OH VALLEY... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EXTEND SWWD TO WRN TN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DECREASE IN ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SWRN OH INTO SRN IND/WRN KY. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 06:19:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 01:19:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505230629.j4N6TaJ2027217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230627 SWODY1 SPC AC 230626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE AMA 20 SE AMA 30 NNE CVS 15 SSW TCC 40 SE RTN 10 NE PUB 45 ENE FCL 35 NE CDR 35 SW PIR HON 25 SSE YKN 40 WSW LNK 20 ENE RSL 20 WSW HUT 40 ENE ICT 30 E CNU 30 SE UMN 10 NNW LIT 35 WNW GLH 35 SSE ELD 15 NW SHV 10 SSE PRX 20 ESE FSI 30 SW CSM 60 ENE AMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 20 W RWI 25 NNE DAN 20 NNE LYH 45 NNE CHO 20 W DCA 20 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DAB 55 N PIE ...CONT... 45 SE HUM 35 E LCH 30 NNW GGG 30 WNW MWL 35 ESE BGS 20 NE FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 45 SE ALM 30 WNW ROW 40 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 45 NE 4SL 20 W ASE 50 WSW CAG VEL 40 NE U24 20 SSE DPG 20 NW DPG 50 NE ENV 35 S BYI 40 NNE BYI 45 ESE WEY 45 WNW SHR 20 NNW 4BQ 55 N REJ 10 WSW DIK 10 ESE ISN 55 N ISN ...CONT... 55 W RRT 40 W AXN 15 NNW RWF 45 WNW DSM 45 WNW TBN 35 ENE JBR 40 WNW AND 45 E CLT 20 SE GSO 35 NW GSO 35 S JKL 20 SSW LUK 40 E SBN 15 NE MBL 10 E TVC 30 SSW OSC ...CONT... 60 E MTC 15 SE IPT 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ONM 20 NNW TCS 35 WSW TCS 45 ENE SAD 35 NNE SAD 45 WNW SAD 75 E PHX 65 SSW INW 25 NE PRC 30 SE GCN 30 N INW 45 WSW GUP 40 S GUP 30 W ONM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ENE 63S 35 NNE GEG 35 S 4OM 35 W EAT 45 SE SEA 20 NE OLM 15 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO AR/ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA NWWD TO HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. FURTHER WEST...RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SWRN STATES. THE NWD EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/WRN CANADA INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THEN TURN SEWD OVER THE PLAINS TO GULF COAST/SERN STATES WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...REACHING THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SWWD TO NERN CO BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO TO ERN NM...WITH ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURNING MOISTURE NWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO/WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SWRN NEB BY MID AFTERNOON. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS/NEB PANHANDLE COMBINED WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN THE CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD ALSO BE AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN NEB/NERN CO INTO NWRN KS... WHERE THE NRN EXTENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. INCREASING SLY LLJ FROM TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO KS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FROM NERN NM NWD TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS INTO AR/ARKLATEX REGION... A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN OK TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING MORNING MCS WILL BE THE FOCI FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF ERN OK INTO AR AND NWWD INTO SWRN MO/ SERN KS ON THE NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF OK/WRN AR INTO KS IS PROGGED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE TODAY..GIVEN A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING. A CAP IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER NRN-ERN OK BY 00Z. IF STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND THE LLJ DEVELOPS FURTHER WWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO KS. ...MID ATLANTIC... A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WRN PA TO THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY 18Z...WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO ERN VA TODAY. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING OVER SRN MD/VA INTO NERN NC IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG TRAILING SECONDARY FRONT WNWWD OVER VA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING BY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO SOUTHEAST... A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE TN VALLEY TO AR WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...REACHING SERN GA TO NRN LA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /ESPECIALLY FROM AL EWD/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS... WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY VALUES... STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK...IF CONFIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA AND/OR AN MCV PRODUCED FROM ONGOING MCS OVER SERN KS/NERN OK SUGGESTS A GREATER FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 12:35:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 07:35:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505231245.j4NCjtmk003913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231243 SWODY1 SPC AC 231242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JAX 10 ESE TLH 20 NNW GPT 40 E SHV 30 NNE DUA 55 WNW CSM 25 WSW AMA 10 WSW CVS 45 ENE LVS 15 S PUB 30 ESE CYS 10 NE CDR 20 WSW PIR HON YKN 30 N GRI 50 S EAR 10 NW HUT 15 NNW JLN 25 NNE LIT 20 SSE UOX 20 S 0A8 40 ENE ABY 25 W SAV 40 ESE AGS 30 E CAE 35 W OAJ 15 W RWI 25 NE DAN 10 SW CHO 25 WSW DCA 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 45 SE ALM 30 WNW ROW 40 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 45 NE 4SL 20 W ASE 50 WSW CAG VEL 40 NE U24 20 SSE DPG 20 NW DPG 50 NE ENV 35 S BYI 15 W PIH 45 ESE WEY 50 SSE BIL 40 ESE MLS 30 ESE SDY 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 55 W RRT 40 W AXN 15 NNW RWF 20 NE SPW 60 NE OMA 40 SE OMA 15 WNW MKC 55 S SZL 35 ENE JBR 40 WNW AND 45 E CLT 20 SE GSO 35 NW GSO 35 S JKL 20 SSW LUK 40 E SBN 15 NE MBL 10 E TVC 30 SSW OSC ...CONT... 60 E MTC 15 SE IPT 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 55 N PIE ...CONT... 45 SE HUM 35 E LCH 50 SW TYR 30 WNW MWL 35 ESE BGS 20 NE FST 70 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ONM 20 NNW TCS 35 WSW TCS 45 ENE SAD 25 N SAD 50 SSW SOW 65 ENE PHX 65 SSW INW 25 NE PRC 30 SE GCN 30 N INW 45 WSW GUP 40 S GUP 30 W ONM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 30 E FCA 30 S FCA 25 NW 3TH 10 ENE GEG 30 WNW GEG 40 N EPH 30 W EAT 45 SE SEA 20 NE OLM 15 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE SWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS BLOCK CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM OVER NRN QUEBEC. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS SWRN RIDGE NOSES NEWD IN WAKE OF STRONG DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO DROP SE FROM THE UPR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST PRESENCE OF SEVERAL WEAKER FEATURES MOVING ALONG OUTER FRINGE OF SWRN RIDGE...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE WELL DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. ONE OF THESE IMPULSES IS MORE OR LESS COLLOCATED WITH AR/OK MCC...AND ANOTHER IS ATTM OVER SW NEB. FEATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AT THE SURFACE. DIFFUSE FRONT... AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW..WILL SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS THE RED RVR/LWR MS VLYS. FARTHER NE...A COMPLEX OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTS/TROUGHS WILL ACCOMPANY SYSTEM DROPPING SE ACROSS THE OH VLY/APLCNS. A BETTER DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SE INTO THE NRN PLNS...SUPPORTED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN. ...SRN PLNS/SRN OZARKS TO LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST STATES... AR/OK MCC HAS DEVELOPED A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE /30 KT/ WNWLY FLOW ON EDGE OF SWRN RIDGE. SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THIS DIRECTION AND EXTENDS SE TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST. WITH THE MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY VEER AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE LWR MS VLY REGION TODAY...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE COLD POOL/ LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SETUP...EXPECT THAT AR/OK CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY SEWD TODAY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOULD DESTABILIZE AS A RESULT OF BOTH SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW ADVECTING WARMTH/MOISTURE INTO REGION. THUS...THE EXISTING SYSTEM... AND/OR STORMS FORMING ON ITS PERIPHERY...SHOULD INTENSIFY LATER TODAY. GIVEN DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KT DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR...THE STORMS COULD YIELD HIGH WIND AND HAIL AS THEY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS. BACK N...ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF AR/OK MCC...MODERATE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WRN SIDE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL. GIVEN QUALITY OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS COULD LEAD TO THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OVER MUCH OF OK AND PERHAPS SRN KS. ...SRN VA TO S ATLANTIC CST... A SURFACE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALONG EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE SRN VA LATER TODAY AS LEADING PORTION OF UPR GRT LKS DISTURBANCE DROPS RAPIDLY SEWD. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED SWD INTO ERN SC AND SRN GA. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED FOR LATE MAY...AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR GOOD SURFACE HEATING. CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY ALONG COLD FRONT FARTHER N AND W...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS FROM SRN VA SWD INTO ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. DEEP... LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT WNWLY SHEAR...COUPLED WITH 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO BANDS WITH HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...CNTRL HI PLNS INTO CNTRL/NRN PLNS... SETUP WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS AS ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES BENEATH 30-35 KT WLY FLOW CRESTING SWRN RIDGE. EXISTING LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN CO NNE INTO CNTRL SD WILL BE INTENSIFIED BY DIURNAL INFLUENCES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE AUGMENTED IN TIME BY COLD FRONT NOSING SWD IN WAKE OF SASKATCHEWAN IMPULSE. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR ERN CO/NE NM NWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/SD. COMBINATION OF 40-50 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WHILE THE NM/SRN CO STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL...THOSE FARTHER N WILL LIKELY BE JOINED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE NOCTURNAL MCSS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND INTO ERN PARTS OF NEB/SD. ...UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS... SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM POTENT UPR GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH DEEP/COOL CYCLONIC FLOW...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BANDS OF STRONG DIURNAL STORMS OVER PARTS OF OH/WV AND SW PA. LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 15:57:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 10:57:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505231608.j4NG85xm011236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231605 SWODY1 SPC AC 231604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JAX 10 ESE TLH 30 WSW MCB 40 E SHV 20 SSE ADM 55 WNW CSM 25 WSW AMA 10 WSW CVS 45 ENE LVS 15 S PUB 30 ESE CYS 10 NE CDR 20 WSW PIR HON YKN 30 N GRI 50 S EAR 10 NW HUT 15 NNW JLN 25 NNE LIT 20 SSE UOX 20 S 0A8 40 ENE ABY 25 W SAV 40 ESE AGS 30 E CAE 35 W OAJ 30 NNW RWI 50 SW RIC 25 NW RIC 35 WSW NHK 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 55 NNE CLL 15 N BWD 25 NW SJT 70 S MRF ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 40 NE PHX 20 NNW GCN 40 S 4BL 35 S MTJ 15 NNE MTJ 45 NNW GJT 45 E PUC 30 ESE DPG 60 SW MLD 40 NW COD 25 NNW REJ 20 N DIK 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 45 WNW GTF 15 N EAT 15 N BLI ...CONT... 30 W INL 35 ENE AXN 40 ESE OMA 55 S SZL 20 NNE DYR 25 E AND 30 SSW CLT 30 NNE CLT 35 E TRI 30 NNW JKL 30 SW FWA 10 N AZO 20 NNW LAN 10 NNW MTC ...CONT... ERI 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 20 NNW PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS GULF STATES TO SERN COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING UPPER AIR PATTERN PERSISTS NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER HIGH ERN CANADA AND UPPER LOW OVER NERN U.S. CHANGING LITTLE IN NEAR TERM. STRONG WLYS INTO WRN CANADA/NWRN U.S. GRADUALLY SUPPRESSING UNSEASONABLY LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER SWRN STATES...SWD INTO NRN MEXICO. STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL E OF ROCKIES ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL ROCKIES E/SEWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY TO SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER SERN VA/ERN NC TODAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF STRONG JET MAX WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING FROM THERE WSWWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF GULF STATES THEN WWD THRU NRN OK TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VICINITY OK PANHANDLE. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... E/SELY FLOW TO N OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PUSH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG OR MORE FROM ERN CO/WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF FRONT RANGE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. A SEVERE MCS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING EVENING AND TRACK E/SEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO OK MAINTAINING A SEVERE THREAT MOST OF NIGHT GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOW IN PLACE OVER SRN PLAINS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO SERN COAST... WHILE SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAKER ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE E OF SRN PLAINS...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY DIURNAL SEVERE THREAT. STORM MODE SHOULD BE MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR WITH THREAT PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WIND THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER WHERE STORMS CAN GENERATE A COLD POOL. ...MID-ATLANTIC COAST... A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX FROM OH VALLEY. SEVERE THREAT DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS TO THE N OF NC/VA BORDER AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. STRONG HEATING TO LEE OF APPALACHIANS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER ERN VA/NC. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 20:07:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 15:07:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505232018.j4NKIGvM027074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232002 SWODY1 SPC AC 232000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AGS 10 ESE SAV SSI 15 ESE TLH 30 WSW MCB 40 E SHV 25 SW MLC OKC 50 ESE GAG TCC 20 W CAO PUB LIC BFF 50 SW RAP RAP 55 WNW HON HON GRI CNK MHK 25 NNE LIT 20 SSE UOX 25 WNW BHM 10 ESE GAD AHN AGS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW HSE 35 N EWN 55 NE RWI 25 W RIC 15 SSE CHO 45 ENE CHO 20 SSW NHK 35 WSW WAL 40 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM IGM 20 NNW GCN BCE 40 SSE U24 30 ESE DPG 60 SW MLD COD REJ 30 ESE MOT 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 10 SW RRT 10 NNW AXN 35 ESE OMA 45 N JLN ARG 10 WNW TUP RMG SPA SOP RWI 65 SW RIC 20 NW ROA FWA 20 SSE MKG 20 E GRR 10 E DTW ...CONT... 25 WSW ERI 20 NNE AOO CXY 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 SSE LCH LFK 45 SSE DAL 10 WNW SEP 15 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 45 WNW GTF 45 SE 4OM 15 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY AND ERN GULF STATES.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS**... UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA REMAINS STRONG...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS APPEARS PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ACTIVITY OVER COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ONE DISTINCT UPPER FEATURE IS NOT READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A PERTURBATION WILL MIGRATE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND NEAR WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. GIVEN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 24/02-03Z...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING BEGINS TO INCREASE INHIBITION FOR PARCELS BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASED ABOVE RADIATIONAL INVERSION LAYER...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES**... BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. REMNANT IMPULSE FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE OZARKS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA...AND COULD STILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. AIDED BY MODERATE FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN STATES CYCLONIC MID/UPPER REGIME...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES**... STORMS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...ALONG/JUST NORTH OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND VA INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED TO AROUND 80F. THIS HAS SUPPORTED CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 24/00-01Z. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 01:01:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 20:01:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505240111.j4O1BwAm003255@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240109 SWODY1 SPC AC 240107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC 15 ENE RTN PUB 35 WNW LIC 40 W SNY 30 NNE AIA 50 S PHP 10 NNE PIR 45 WNW HON 10 SE HON GRI 10 N CNK MHK 35 NW JLN 20 WNW HRO 30 NNE HOT 35 N TXK 40 ENE DUA 35 NE ADM OKC 40 WNW CSM TCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SEM 15 SSE LGC 45 E MCN 60 W SAV 15 NNW AYS 10 WSW MGR 20 SSW DHN 30 NNE CEW 35 S SEM 10 NW SEM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM IGM 20 NNW GCN BCE 40 SSE U24 30 ESE DPG 60 SW MLD COD REJ 30 ESE MOT 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 10 SW RRT 10 NNW AXN 35 ESE OMA 45 N JLN ARG 10 WNW TUP RMG 50 E CHA 30 NE TYS 35 W LOZ 25 WSW LEX 15 WNW LUK 35 S FDY 40 WNW CLE ...CONT... 25 WSW ERI 30 WNW AOO BWI 30 NE SBY ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 SSE LCH LFK 45 SSE DAL 10 WNW SEP 15 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 45 WNW GTF 45 SE 4OM 15 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO WRN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN AL INTO PORTIONS OF SRN GA... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO WRN AR... NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM SRN NEB TO NRN OK. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH THE SRN EXTENT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WRN NEB INTO NERN CO. MEANWHILE...A COMBINATION OF A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL/ NRN OK NWWD INTO KS AND ERN CO. STRONG CAP...CURRENTLY EAST OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM NERN NM TO SWRN NEB...SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. EVENTUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM WRN TX INTO KS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN NEB/KS AND POTENTIALLY NRN OK. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ONCE THE MCS/S DEVELOP AND TRACK SEWD. ...AL/GA... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AN MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS GA WILL SUPPORT ASCENT ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH 03-04Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW HAIL EVENTS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ..PETERS.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 05:51:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 00:51:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505240601.j4O61urP029527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240600 SWODY1 SPC AC 240559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35 NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW TYR 25 NNW MWL 25 WNW ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25 NW CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 50 SW BIL 15 WNW BZN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 45 N EAU 20 E FOD 30 NE SZL 25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 20 NNE TUS 55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO 40 S ROA 40 N SHD 10 NW MRB 10 W BWI 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF CANADA WILL RESULT IN A SLOW EWD TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE/COLD LOW OVER THE ERN STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THEN TURN SEWD WITHIN NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY. GREATEST SEVERE THREATS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY FROM ERN CO/NERN NM EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/KS AND OK...WITH A SEWD EXTENSION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...ERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY REACHING THE MN BORDER TOWARD 00Z...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO NERN CO. ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING NWD INTO CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD TO ERN CO/NERN NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH OVER NERN CO AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. A SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S MOVING SEWD ACROSS KS INTO OK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT. FURTHER N...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS SPREADING INTO MN/NWRN IA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...ERN OK/AR TO LOWER MS VALLEY... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL REMAIN FROM NRN-ERN OK/WRN AR TO ERN TX/LA/MS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS AND 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AN MCV FROM THE MORNING MCS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR RE-INTENSIFICATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ONGOING MCS FROM ERN OK INTO AR AND SEWD TO LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE NWLY FLOW MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ...PORTIONS OF NERN-ERN FL... A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN STATES CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH 25/00Z BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY...REACHING NRN FL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DEEP WNWLY WINDS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE FL EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SWD TODAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOB 30 KT RESULTING IN A FEW MULTICELLS...A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED IN THIS OUTLOOK. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC... A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING NWWD FROM THE ERN NC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS VA INTO NC TODAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S/ COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING PEAK HEATING SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. STORMS WITHIN THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINLY SUPPORT MULTICELLS. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 06:30:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 01:30:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505240640.j4O6ehoW009282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240638 SWODY1 SPC AC 240636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35 NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW TYR 25 NNW MWL 25 WNW ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25 NW CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 50 SW BIL 15 WNW BZN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 45 N EAU 20 E FOD 30 NE SZL 25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 20 NNE TUS 55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO 40 S ROA 40 N SHD 10 NW MRB 10 W BWI 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF CANADA WILL RESULT IN A SLOW EWD TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE/COLD LOW OVER THE ERN STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THEN TURN SEWD WITHIN NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY. GREATEST SEVERE THREATS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY FROM ERN CO/NERN NM EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/KS AND OK...WITH A SEWD EXTENSION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...ERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY REACHING THE MN BORDER TOWARD 00Z...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO NERN CO. ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING NWD INTO CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD TO ERN CO/NERN NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH OVER NERN CO AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. A SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S MOVING SEWD ACROSS KS INTO OK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT. FURTHER N...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS SPREADING INTO MN/NWRN IA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...ERN OK/AR TO LOWER MS VALLEY... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL REMAIN FROM NRN-ERN OK/WRN AR TO ERN TX/LA/MS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS AND 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AN MCV FROM THE MORNING MCS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR RE-INTENSIFICATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ONGOING MCS FROM ERN OK INTO AR AND SEWD TO LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE NWLY FLOW MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ...PORTIONS OF NERN-ERN FL... A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN STATES CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH 25/00Z BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY...REACHING NRN FL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DEEP WNWLY WINDS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE FL EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SWD TODAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOB 30 KT RESULTING IN A FEW MULTICELLS...A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED IN THIS OUTLOOK. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC... A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING NWWD FROM THE ERN NC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS VA INTO NC TODAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S/ COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING PEAK HEATING SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. STORMS WITHIN THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINLY SUPPORT MULTICELLS. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 12:19:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 07:19:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505241230.j4OCUACP014658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241227 SWODY1 SPC AC 241225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35 NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW TYR 15 E MWL 20 SSE ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25 NW CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 50 W SAD 55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 65 SSE DLH 30 SW STC 50 NW LWD 25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI ...CONT... 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO 40 S ROA MGW 15 ENE AOO 25 SSE CXY 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PLAINS SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ANCHORED BY UPPER HIGH EASTERN CANADA. UPPER LOW CONTINUES ALONG NERN COAST WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING SEWD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. UPPER HIGH OVER SWRN U.S. BEING SLOWLY SUPPRESSED SWD AS WESTERLIES INCREASE TO THE S OF UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. NWLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM HIGH PLAINS TO SERN STATES UNDER THIS UPPER AIR REGIME. AT THE SURFACE E/W FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS SRN GA TO CENTRAL AL AND THEN INTO NWRN AR WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE MCS THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY A COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SRN WY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. COLD OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT PLAINS MCS STILL MOVING SEWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... GFS/NAM IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT A REPEAT OF MONDAYS UPSLOPE HIGH PLAINS SEVERE SLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF DAY TO RECOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT BY MID AFTERNOON THE STRONG HEATING AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SHOULD SET STAGE FOR INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB. A LITTLE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON MONDAY AS WESTERLIES ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER S WITH FLATTENING OF SWRN UPPER HIGH. THUS SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN CONVECTIVE MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN OVERNIGHT MCS...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE MORE SEWD TRACK THAN CURRENT ONE. THIS WOULD KEEP PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM WRN KS INTO WRN OK AND POSSIBLY ERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND THEN AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING EVENING WHEN A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AS MCS DEVELOPS AND PROPAGATES SEWD. CURRENT MCS OVER SRN KS APPEARS TO BE DECAYING WITH A PRONOUNCED MVC NOTED ON COMPOSITE RADAR. THIS MCV LIKELY NOT TO DIRECTLY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEWD IN AXIS OF HIGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND EWD ALONG ERN GULF COAST. SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN OVER PLAINS. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... AS VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY SERN VA/ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. ...E COAST OF CENTRAL FL... S OF FRONTAL ZONE WLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAIN FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHERE E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE..PRIMARILY BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 16:37:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 11:37:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505241648.j4OGm4oU023189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241638 SWODY1 SPC AC 241636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EHA 50 SE LIC 15 SSE AKO 40 E SNY 30 W LBF 15 ENE MCK 50 NNE DDC 30 E DDC 40 ENE LBL 20 ENE EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ILM 25 WSW GSB 20 NNE RDU 60 SW RIC 40 SSE RIC 20 SE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY DAB ...CONT... 15 SE VRB 10 WNW SRQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE PIR ATY SUX LNK 55 S OJC 50 S UNO 25 NNE GLH 40 N JAN 25 NNE LUL GPT 15 N HUM 15 NNE POE 50 N GGG 10 SSE DUA CDS 35 NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL CYS 45 W CDR 50 NE PIR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 50 NE FNB 30 E UNO 20 N TOI 25 NNE MGR 10 NNE AYS 45 WSW CHS 10 NNW CRE 25 WSW EKN 15 ESE AOO 25 SSE CXY 40 ENE ORF ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 30 SE LFK 50 SSW TYR 15 SSE SEP 45 S ABI 65 SW SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 70 SW SOW 35 E SOW 45 W ONM 35 SW 4CR 40 NW ROW 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB AND WRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTREME SERN VA/ERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NM NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. BETWEEN THIS RIDGE...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IN THE PACIFIC NW...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN E/W FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WNWWD INTO OK...WHERE IT INTERSECTS A REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS LOCATED IN SERN OK AND NRN TX. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW...WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND EXTENDED SWWD INTO NRN CO. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... GFS/NAM IN AGREEMENT OF STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING SEWD AS AN MCS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF ERN CO IS SUNNY...ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WILL WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE SHOULD SET STAGE FOR INITIATION NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND ERN CO. WLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS PACIFIC NW TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. COUPLED WITH STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NEAR 50 KT. THIS SHEAR PLUS MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN WY/ERN CO. HOWEVER...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE...AND WITH THE RESULTANT COLD POOL RESULTING IN THE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KS THIS EVENING. LINE SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK AROUND 06Z. ...ERN OK/AR LA AND MS... CURRENT MCS OVER SRN KS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...THOUGH A MCV WAS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR EAST OF ICT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SEWD INTO WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE MCV ACROSS EXTREME ERN OK/WRN AR..MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAK CONVECTION HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...COLD POOL PUSHING SEWD FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO MAY AID CAUSE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS...WITH WIND DAMAGE MORE LIKELY AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS AR AND POSSIBLY INTO LA/MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ARE MOVING SWD ACROSS VA AS VORTICITY MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES...A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EXTREME SERN VA/ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...THOUGH STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ...CENTRAL FL... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DESPITE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONVERGENCE WILL MAY A PROBLEM FOR STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP... MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WOULD AND DEEP WLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT BRIEF HAIL/WIND THREATS. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 20:04:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 15:04:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505242014.j4OKEcjL005717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242001 SWODY1 SPC AC 242000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EHA 20 S LIC 45 W AKO 30 WNW IML 10 SE IML HLC 50 NNE DDC P28 GAG EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OAJ 30 WSW GSB 30 N SOP 25 NNE GSO 50 ESE LYH 10 SW ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIR ABR 45 NNE ATY 10 WNW FSD 10 NW OFK 10 W GRI 40 S EAR 10 WNW RSL 30 W HUT 10 W PNC TUL 15 NNE FYV 40 NNW LIT 25 N GLH 40 S GWO 30 N LUL 10 WNW GPT 20 NNW HUM 20 NNW POE GGG 35 SSE DUA SPS PVW TCC 25 WSW TAD 20 SW FCL 10 WNW CYS 55 W CDR PIR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30 SSW ORL 55 SSW GNV CTY 30 N CTY GNV 35 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 25 NNE TUS 50 N SAD TCS 4CR LVS 10 N DRO 35 ESE CNY 40 WSW 4HV 60 SE U24 45 S EVW RWL 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NE ELO MKT OMA FNB OJC UNO CBM 10 W CSG 50 NW AYS 35 S SAV ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 LCH LFK ACT 20 SSW BWD SJT 50 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS 15 WSW GSP 10 ESE HSS BKW EKN 10 E LBE 30 NNW PSB 10 SSW IPT CXY 10 ENE BWI 30 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN FL PEN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC.... ...ARKLATEX/GULF STATES INTO SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES**... MODELS SUGGEST CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES WILL REDEVELOP EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER... INCLUDING ONE NOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SURGE SOUTH/EAST OF THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/THERMAL RIDGE. THIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY. MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG THIS AXIS RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION BECOMING WEAK IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FLORIDA... STORMS ARE NOW INTENSIFYING WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME FOCUSED NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NORTH OF MELBOURNE. ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROGRESS EAST OF COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT SHIFTS OFFSHORE... RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. ERN OK/ARKLATEX/LWR MS VLY... STORMS ARE NOW INCREASING IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHERE FORCING IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARKS. SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NEAR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS BY THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ...PLAINS**... FOCUSED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH...SHIFTING EAST OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...IS ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. AS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA. MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO 25-30 KT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR AND POSSIBLE ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...INITIAL ISOLATED TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL ZONE PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA THOUGH. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT REACH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...BY WHICH TIME COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MINIMIZE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 01:08:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 20:08:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505250118.j4P1IaEi026716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250110 SWODY1 SPC AC 250108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 NE LHX 25 SW GLD 30 SE IML 20 S MCK 35 WNW HLC 35 SSW HLC 40 SW RSL 45 SSW RSL 50 ENE GAG 25 SSW GAG 30 SE EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W VTN 35 W HON 30 SE BKX 40 N SUX OFK 10 W GRI 35 S EAR 10 NNW RSL 15 WSW HUT 10 NW PNC TUL 15 NNE FYV 35 NW LIT 25 N GLH 40 N JAN 25 ENE LUL 30 S GPT 20 NNW HUM 30 N BPT 35 SSW GGG 40 SSE DUA SPS PVW TCC 25 WSW TAD 30 S DEN 40 N CYS 40 WSW CDR 45 W VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GLS 65 SW TYR ACT 20 SSW BWD SJT 50 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 25 NNE TUS 25 NNW SAD 30 ENE TCS 30 E 4CR LVS 10 N DRO 45 SE CNY 20 SW U28 30 NNE PUC 45 NW VEL RWL 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NE ELO 35 E MSP OMA 30 NNE MHK 10 N CNU 40 NE HRO 40 SW TCL DHN 25 NNE VLD 15 NE SSI ...CONT... 40 ENE CHS 45 N CRE 35 E GSB 15 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SMALL PART OF ERN CO...MUCH OF WRN KS INTO NWRN OK INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM ERN CO SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS INTO CENTRAL-SERN OK. AIR MASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT. ONGOING UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT FOR AN MCS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN KS AND SERN CO THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MCS PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER SEVERE MCS TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS WRN-SWRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SRN KS/NRN-WRN OK OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO AND LARGE HAIL WITH THIS MCS. HOWEVER...CAPPING PER 00Z SOUNDINGS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. ...ERN OK/AR TO LOWER MS VALLEY... A WELL DEFINED MCV AND MCS ACROSS AR/FAR ERN OK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO SRN AR/LA AND POTENTIALLY ERN TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS MCV WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEWD ACROSS SRN AR/NERN LA INTO SWRN MS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LEAD ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS MOVING INTO SRN AR/LA AND FAR ERN TX. ...ERN WY/NEB TO ND/SD/MN... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EWD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 100 KT WNWLY UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SWRN SD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH A LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE NERN NEB/SERN SD BORDER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ND/SD SWD TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW AND THEN SWWD INTO NERN CO. MEANWHILE...VIS IMAGERY INDICATED A SW-NE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION... CONTINUING TO RETREAT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SERN SD. MODELS SUGGEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL NEB TO ALONG THE MN/ DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THIS ZONE OF BAROCLINICITY. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS STRONGER INFLOW OF MOIST AIR MASS IS PROGGED INTO THE DEVELOPING MCS OVER FARTHER S ACROSS WRN KS/SERN CO ATTM. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z ACROSS SERN WY/NORTH CENTRAL CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ENEWD. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...FAR ERN NC... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL NC THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DECREASE AFTER 02-03Z AS THE SURFACE LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE OF NC/SC. ..PETERS.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 06:03:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 01:03:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505250613.j4P6Dsbd007981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250609 SWODY1 SPC AC 250608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 20 WSW HOU 35 SSW AUS 30 N DRT 25 NW FST 35 N GDP 45 NE ALM 25 NNE SAF 50 W COS 25 NE COS LHX 40 NW EHA 30 NE LBL 25 WSW ICT 25 SE PNC 45 NNE ADM 10 W DUA 35 N TYR 10 SW GGG 40 NNW POE 25 E POE 25 WSW 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MIA 55 ESE FMY 40 WSW AGR 45 WSW ORL 25 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLS 45 E SAT 15 ENE HDO 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG TCS 10 NW ABQ 15 NNW FMN 40 W PGA 15 W SGU 45 NW P38 20 S ELY 25 ESE U24 50 NW 4FC 40 SSW DGW CDR 15 NNW RAP 25 N 81V 25 SSE 3HT 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 SW RFD 20 ENE CNU 45 NW LIT 45 SSW GWO 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 35 SSE CTY 30 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SERN CO/ERN NM AND SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SWRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NERN PACIFIC...WILL BUILD NEWD OVER WRN CANADA/PAC NW TODAY RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL RESULT IN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN PLAINS AND SEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO MN AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING A LINE FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN IA TO NERN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD TODAY... AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN TO ERN TX/SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...A LARGE COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. SRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. ...SERN CO/ERN NM/KS SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SRN LA... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SSEWD INTO NWRN- NORTH CENTRAL TX. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NRN-ERN TX INTO SRN LA WILL WEAKEN THE CAP FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV MOVING INTO NWRN-CENTRAL TX AND A SECOND MCV MOVING SWD ACROSS LA ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WWD INTO ERN NM/SERN CO IN ADVANCE OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF ERN NM/SERN CO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER ERN NM AND ACROSS NWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A POTENTIAL MCS MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN TX AS A SSELY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR UPSTREAM MCV SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED S OF THIS FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/MCV AND SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL FL. UNI-DIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ...ERN-NERN MN TO NWRN WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW /70-80 KT AT 500 MB AND 100 KT AT 250 MB/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB TO SRN MN/IA. A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN SD AT 12Z TODAY... AND LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. CLOUDINESS ALONG/E OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TODAY AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT/90-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-45 KT FROM SRN MN TO NERN MN/NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK ALONG/E OF THE FRONT MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ... ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF THIS SEVERE THREAT...A CATEGORICAL RISK IS NOT EXPECTED...WITH A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WINDS ALONG/E OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. ..PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 12:25:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 07:25:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505251235.j4PCZw25016749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251229 SWODY1 SPC AC 251227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BPT 35 NNW HOU 35 SE AUS 30 N DRT 25 S FST 35 N GDP 45 NE ALM 25 NNE SAF 50 W COS 25 NE COS 45 S LAA 15 SSE OKC 20 W PRX 45 NNE TYR 25 ESE SHV 25 E POE 25 WSW 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MIA 55 ESE FMY 40 WSW AGR 45 WSW ORL 25 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG TCS 30 ESE GNT 15 NNW FMN 40 W PGA 15 W SGU 45 NW P38 20 S ELY 25 ESE U24 50 NW 4FC 40 SSW DGW CDR 15 NNW RAP 25 N 81V 25 SSE 3HT 50 NNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 N MLI 40 ENE CNU 25 NE HOT 40 N JAN 30 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLS 45 E SAT 20 ESE HDO 60 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S FLORIDA... ...SYNOPSIS... READJUSTMENT IN LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NA WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NCENTRAL U.S. THE LOW OFF THE NERN COAST WILL PERSIST ANOTHER DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NE. VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH ROTATES EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER MN TODAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY EARLY THU AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM VICINITY MN/DAKOTA BORDER SWWD INTO NERN CO CONTINUES E AND S...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MCS ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SURFACE BOUNDARY SWD THRU WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ESEWD FROM SERN OK TO GULF COAST SRN MS THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ...SRN PLAINS... WITH THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE S OF PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD TO E SLOPES OF SRN ROCKIES. WITH GENERALLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 7-8C/KM PERSISTING EWD ACROSS TX...AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/ERN NM BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. WHILE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ROTATING STORM. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EWD ACROSS TX AS AIRMASS BECOMES STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH JUST A WEAK CAP. INITIATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ON BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WILL WORK SWD INTO N TX AND LA. SHEAR GENERALLY SUFFICIENTLY WEAK THAT MULTI-CELLULAR WILL BE THE DOMINATE STORM MODE FROM CENTRAL TX SEWD. ...SRN FL... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD CENTRAL FL. IN THE MEANTIME INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON SRN FL. WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG S OF FRONT AND AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS WILL RESULT IN SOME HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY VICINITY E COAST SEA BREEZE. ..HALES/BRIGHT.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 16:43:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 11:43:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505251653.j4PGreu6013279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251634 SWODY1 SPC AC 251632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 45 W HOU 15 S SAT 35 N DRT 25 S FST 35 N GDP 45 S 4CR 65 NNW LVS 20 WNW COS 30 SW LIC EHA CSM 15 N PRX 45 SE PRX SHV 20 W POE 20 NNE BPT 30 WSW BPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 55 W MIA 30 N FMY 35 NW AGR 10 SSE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 N MLI 25 N SZL 20 NW JLN 35 WSW FYV 40 SSE HOT JAN 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 15 SE DAB ...CONT... 45 WSW GLS 15 N VCT 45 ENE COT 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 55 NW TUS 40 W SAD 50 WSW DMN 30 SSW TCS 10 W GNT 80 S 4BL 30 NE GCN 40 SW SGU 20 NNW P38 40 SE ELY 25 ESE U24 25 SW CAG 30 SW LAR 45 ENE CYS 25 NNW IML 45 ENE MCK 20 S HSI 25 SSE OLU 35 NNW SUX 20 NNW YKN 10 N ANW 15 NNW CDR 45 N WRL 15 N BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN PLAINS WWD INTO ERN NM/SRN CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WNWWD INTO NRN/WRN TX...AND THEN NWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN CO/NM. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN U.S. TROUGH...WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME ERN SD...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO. ...SRN PLAINS... OVERNIGHT MCS WAS LOCATED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND THE SPS AREA AT MID MORNING. WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF MWL WITH FRONT EXTENDING EWD NORTH OF DFW TO NEAR SHV. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE MAINTAINED BY WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE STORMS MAY STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH HEATING AND AS THE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT...UPDRAFTS SHOULD INGEST A RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGER HAIL. ALSO...CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP AND AID IN GENERATING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA BETWEEN DFW AND ABI. STRONG HEATING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0C/KM...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONGER WINDS 3-10 KM AGL AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT... THOUGH THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG PROPAGATION SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO MOVE SWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AREA OF TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. ...ERN NM/ERN CO... ELY BOUNDARY LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS/GREATER INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND AID IN STORM INITIATION NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN NM. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...BUT HIGH STORM BASES AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. ...SRN FL... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CENTRAL FL THOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. HOWEVER...WHAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WILL BE IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY VICINITY E COAST SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE FRONT. ..IMY/DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 19:44:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 14:44:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505251954.j4PJswnL025911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251945 SWODY1 SPC AC 251943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LBB 60 S CDS MWL 10 WNW ACT 50 NW AUS 40 W JCT 55 SE MAF 50 SSE LBB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 45 W HOU 15 S SAT HDO P07 FST GDP 45 ESE ALM 10 N 4CR LVS ALS 40 W COS 15 WSW COS 30 SW PUB 50 SSE LHX 30 NNW LBL RSL LNK 15 ESE OMA 40 NW LWD LWD FLV 10 NNE PNC 20 S GAG AMA CDS 10 NW SPS 35 SSW DUA SHV ESF 30 WSW HUM 15 SSW BPT 30 WSW BPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 50 ESE FMY 25 ENE SRQ 25 WSW ORL MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 ENE ELO CWA MSN 40 SSW RFD 35 WSW SPI UNO HOT 10 N ELD LUL 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 15 SE DAB ...CONT... 25 SSE CRP 10 WNW LRD ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 55 NW TUS 40 W SAD 50 WSW DMN 30 SSW TCS 10 W GNT 80 S 4BL 30 NE GCN LAS 50 ESE FAT 20 ENE SAC RBL 30 N RBL 10 W SVE LOL 30 NE ELY RKS FCL AKO GLD 30 WNW HLC HSI OLU SUX 20 NNW YKN 10 N ANW 15 NNW CDR 45 N WRL 15 N BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NW/W CNTRL TX/... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.... ...FLORIDA**... BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME IS JUST NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ZONE OF ENHANCED FORCING IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW. THIS LIKELY WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WHERE SEA BREEZE IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH SHEAR IS ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH AT BEST...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS**... LATEST MODEL/OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. FORCING WITH ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHICH WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE MIGRATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO...ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE ABILENE/SAN ANGELO AREAS. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED INTO THE 90S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH CAPE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF 30-35 MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES UPSCALE. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY...WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FORMS AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS SOUTH/ SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ...CENTRAL PLAINS**... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG MAIN SURFACE FRONT NOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER... SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT...BY/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 01:08:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 20:08:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505260118.j4Q1IgnF029236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260114 SWODY1 SPC AC 260113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 25 W GDP 40 S 4CR 30 NW LVS 50 W RTN RTN 35 NE TCC 25 SSW CDS 30 W SPS 40 E SPS 45 NNW DAL 35 NW TYR 25 S TYR 40 E LFK 30 ESE POE 25 SW BTR 10 E HUM 40 WSW BVE ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 45 ESE AUS 25 NNE SAT 20 SW HDO 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW GLS 55 N PSX 45 NNW NIR 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 30 SSW ALM 25 SE ONM 50 N 4SL 40 SSE GUC 55 ENE GUC 10 NNE COS 25 NNW LHX 45 SSE EHA 40 NW GAG 30 SW RSL 35 NE CNK 20 SSE OMA FOD 15 SSE OTG 10 NNW MHN 20 NNW AIA 50 SW GCC 10 NNW WRL 30 SSW LVM 15 N HLN 45 N FCA ...CONT... 25 W RRT 25 E BRD 25 ENE EAU 30 NNE DBQ 15 NNE BRL 45 WNW TBN 15 SSW UMN 20 WSW FYV 10 ESE MLC 20 WNW PRX 10 NNE SHV 50 NW ESF 30 SW HEZ 30 SE MCB 45 SSE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 15 SE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BCE 15 SE P38 55 SE TPH 45 SW U31 40 NNW U31 25 S EKO 30 W DPG 15 NNE U24 35 NNE BCE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS TUS 45 N DUG 35 ESE DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND MUCH OF CNTRL AND SERN TX AND SWRN LA... ...CNTRL TX... NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SERN TX THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN ALL-DAY MCS THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER. FURTHERMORE...A WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE TX PNHDL. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK/LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR... BOUNDARY AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE NEAR ONGOING CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS OVER THE PECOS VALLEY WHERE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED INHIBITION. THIS MCS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS COLD POOL INTENSIFIES. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT FROM ABI AREA EAST TO SEP/MWL AREA. PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM NELY/ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY NWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND UPDRAFT SPLITTING OF DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA. A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INDICATED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LOWER LFC NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT /SEE TORN PROBABILITY GRAPHIC/. ...SWRN LA... LONG-TRACK MCS MENTIONED ABOVE WAS MOVING INTO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE SWRN LA GULF COAST. PRE-CONVECTIVE LCH RAOB WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS BUT OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED AS EVENING PROGRESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN. ...ERN NM... NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME BENEATH 20-30KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW. CELLS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THIS REGION. FORCING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FROM THIS CONVECTION. THE FRONT MAY ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS SPREADING SSEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AND SERN NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...NW/CNTRL OK... COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT TSTMS FROM THE TX PNHDL ENEWD ACROSS NWRN AND CNTRL OK. WEAKENING INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD RESULT IN A STRONG WIND GUST OR HAIL EVENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ...SRN FL... STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SWWD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN WEAKLY CAPPED STRONG UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOTED ON EVENING RAOBS FROM TBW AND MFL. ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF A SEVERE WIND GUST OR LARGE HAIL REPORT BUT OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 05:01:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 00:01:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505260511.j4Q5Bh4L022332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260508 SWODY1 SPC AC 260505 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 35 WNW ONM 15 WSW 4SL 40 SW ALS 40 ENE ALS 15 ENE TAD 35 SSE RTN 35 SSE LVS 40 E 4CR 40 NW HOB 50 N MAF 40 ENE SJT 55 NNW SAT 30 SSW SAT 35 ESE COT LRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA GRI 25 W BBW 30 ENE MHN 40 NE ANW 30 SSE MHE 40 SSW OTG 35 SSE SPW 45 WNW DSM OMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TVL 35 SW TVL 35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC EKO 45 NW ELY 55 SE NFL 35 SE TVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 15 ESE DAB ...CONT... 25 NE ROC 50 NE BFD LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10 NNW GGG 40 SE LFK 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 40 SSE GUP CEZ 55 S 4FC 25 ENE CYS 55 E DGW 35 SSW GCC 25 WSW MLS 55 SSW OLF 10 ESE SDY 50 ENE BIS 40 ENE FAR 60 SSE DLH 30 E CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW JLN 40 WSW COU 40 NNW COU FLV 45 SSW EAR 15 SW MCK GLD 40 NNE EHA 40 SSW P28 15 W PNC 15 ENE BVO 20 NW JLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NEB....SERN SD....AND WRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN CO...CNTRL NM...AND SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA THIS PERIOD WITH A BELT OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY AREA. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN TO FILL WHILE DRIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME COASTAL WATERS. COOL NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES MAY SLOWLY BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST. ...NEB/SERN SD/WRN IA... GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WNWLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF FRONTAL INTRUSIONS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MO VLY AREAS...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY BELOW 50F. IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW OVER CANADA. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS SD/NEB AND IA. GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR MOISTENING ATOP THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW TSTMS SHOULD FORM AS THE WIND SHIFT SPREADS SEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE EASILY PRODUCED BY THIS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...S TX/MID AND UPR RIO GRANDE VLY... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO S TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VLY BENEATH NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30KT. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN TSTM INITIATION/MAINTENENCE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY. MOST PROMINENT BOUNDARY WAS A COLD FRONT BACKING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN/CNTRL NM. THIS FRONT IS PRECEEDED BY SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ACROSS CNTRL TX. DEVELOPING COLD POOLS FROM ONGOING AND INCREASING CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY BECOME THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT FROM SERN NM TO THE HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY MORNING. GIVEN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MEAN NWLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE REGION...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE DAY. FORCING AND SHEAR ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED WWD/NWWD INTO CNTRL NRN NM...AND PERHAPS SCNTRL CO...WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...FORCING...AND INSTABILITY. A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NM AND A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ...FL... RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE AND PRESENCE OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AGAIN AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN FL. SEA BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 12:16:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 07:16:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505261226.j4QCQmqX019439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261222 SWODY1 SPC AC 261221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 35 WNW ONM 15 WSW 4SL 40 SW ALS 40 ENE ALS 15 ENE TAD 35 SSE RTN 35 SSE LVS 40 E 4CR 40 NW HOB 35 N MAF SJT 50 NNW SAT 30 SSW SAT 35 ESE COT LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 15 ESE DAB ...CONT... 25 NE ROC 50 NE BFD LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10 NNW GGG 40 SE LFK 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 20 NNW TUS 15 ESE SAD 20 SSW SOW 45 NW PRC 20 SW GCN 70 ESE PGA CEZ 55 S 4FC 25 ENE CYS 55 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 SE LVM 30 N LVM 10 ESE SDY 50 ENE BIS 40 ENE FAR 60 SSE DLH 30 E CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE TVL 25 SE SAC 35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC 35 NNE WMC EKO 15 S MLF 30 NNW SGU 55 SE NFL 70 SSE TVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SGF 20 NNW TBN 25 NW COU FLV 45 SSW EAR 30 NW IML 40 E AKO 55 NE LAA 20 E DDC 30 NNW HUT 35 ESE EMP 20 WNW SGF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO CENTRAL NM... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NA WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ERN CANADA. LOW THAT HAS BEEN VICINITY NERN U.S. FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE E AS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY MN/CANADIAN BORDER EXPANDS ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF ERN HALF OF U.S. N OF 35N. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD E/SE ACROSS PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WITH THE LEADING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A DEEPENING LOW SWRN ONTARIO THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO NRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW FROM EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY SRN PLAINS HAS PUSHED SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND WWD ACROSS MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITING THE AREA OF MDT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN TX NWWD INTO NM. ...SWRN TX AND NM... COMBINATION OF BOTH THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AND COOLER AIR WITH SWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL CONFINE THE AIRMASS NEEDED TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX NWWD INTO CENTRAL NM. THIS AIR MASS IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE NWLY FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER NCENTRAL U.S. THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 30KT. MULTI-CELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT IN THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE TO RESULT IN HEATING STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING UPON CESSATION OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SRN FL... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF COOL FRONT. THE E/W FRONT ACROSS S FL WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25KT OR LESS...WILL FOCUS BEST SEVERE THREAT TO ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...NRN PLAINS... MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THE STRONG WNWLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NRN PLAINS. WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE BEST MUCAPE INDICTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS IS STILL LESS THAN 500 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. THUS THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN DROPPED. ..HALES/BRIGHT.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 16:38:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 11:38:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505261648.j4QGmtga023405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261646 SWODY1 SPC AC 261645 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE P07 65 WSW SJT 25 ENE SJT 50 WNW AUS 20 ESE SAT ALI 10 ESE MFE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 35 W ONM 15 W 4SL 25 SSW ALS 45 WNW TAD TAD 50 ENE LVS 65 SW TCC 15 NNW CNM 15 N MRF 75 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE TVL 25 SE SAC 35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC 35 NNE WMC EKO 15 S MLF 30 NNW SGU 55 SE NFL 70 SSE TVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ROC 20 ENE BFD 25 SSE LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10 NNW GGG 50 ESE LFK 25 ESE LFT 15 NW BVE ...CONT... 20 NNW PIE 35 ENE ORL ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 20 NNW TUS 15 ESE SAD 20 SSW SOW 45 NW PRC 20 SW GCN 70 ESE PGA CEZ 55 S 4FC 20 E CYS 50 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 NW COD 30 W 3HT 40 ESE SDY 35 NW BIS 25 E FAR 45 WSW HIB 50 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 20 NNW TBN 25 NW COU 10 SSE FLV 55 SSW HSI 10 ENE IML 40 NNW GLD 55 NE LAA 20 E DDC 25 S PNC 20 ESE TUL 10 S SGF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SYNOPSIS... UNUSUALLY SEASONAL COLD VORTEX CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWD THRU NWRN INDIANA AND SERN MO...THEN SWWD AND WWD ACROSS NERN AND W CENTRAL TX. PATTERNS LIKE THIS LIMIT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. IN THIS CASE TODAY ...ONLY REMNANTS OF MCS ACTIVITY ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS..WHERE THERE IS UPSLOPE FLOW TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AIDED BY INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...SOUTH TEXAS... REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVED S OF THE RIO GRANDE AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DISORGANIZING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ACTIVITY ON THE U.S. SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE SHOWS SOME REMAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS. MLCAPE IS 1500-2000 J/KG /LIS ARE -2 TO -6/ ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THRU THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5C/KM AND CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL NM... UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS LATER TODAY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ...SRN FL... REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL FROM FMY-PBI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. MODELS MOVE WEAK LOW EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ENHANCE UVVS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ...PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SD TO MN AND IA... MODELS SHOW SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 19:41:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 14:41:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505261951.j4QJpx0B015910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261945 SWODY1 SPC AC 261943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN SVC 10 WNW GNT 20 NNW 4SL 10 ENE DRO 45 NW ALS 20 NNE ALS 45 NNW LVS 35 ESE ABQ 4CR 50 WNW CNM 45 SE ELP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DRT 55 ESE DRT COT 35 SSE COT ALI 25 N BRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 9V9 30 E HON 35 WNW RWF 35 NNW MKT 10 SE LSE DBQ 15 NNW OTM 15 ESE OMA 10 NNE OFK 45 E ANW 35 SSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE BUB 45 SSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 25 NW TUS 15 E SAD 25 SW SOW 70 ESE PGA 25 NNW SGU TPH 20 E BIH 30 NE MER 10 W RBL 15 E EKA 25 SE AST 20 NE PDX 75 NW WMC 10 SSE DPG VEL 55 S 4FC 20 E CYS 50 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 NW COD 30 W 3HT 40 ESE SDY 35 NW BIS BJI 20 ENE DLH 35 NE CMX ...CONT... 30 N JHW DUJ 15 WSW LBE UNI 25 NNE LEX HOP GLH 10 WSW GGG 35 SW TYR 35 SSE LFK BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 20 NNW TBN 25 NW COU 10 SSE FLV 55 SSW HSI 10 ENE IML 40 NNW GLD 55 NE LAA 20 ENE DDC CSM 10 SSE OKC 20 ESE TUL 10 S SGF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 10 NNE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN NEAR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.... ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... MANITOBA CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -24C/ IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH LIKELY WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY AROUND 02Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ...FLORIDA... BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WEAK CAPPING HAS BEEN OVERCOME...WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING IMPULSE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING LIFT VICINITY OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST VERY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS ACROSS MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK NORTHWESTERN FLOW REGIME...ON PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING MEXICAN PLATEAU MID-LEVEL RIDGE...MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS DEVELOPING. ...NEW MEXICO... COLD SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO HAVE CONFINED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THESE AREAS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...WITH RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... LIFT/DESTABILIZATION NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CASCADES. ..KERR.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 20:10:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 15:10:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505262020.j4QKKuYb001953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 262013 SWODY1 SPC AC 262011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN SVC 10 WNW GNT 20 NNW 4SL 10 ENE DRO 45 NW ALS 20 NNE ALS 45 NNW LVS 35 ESE ABQ 4CR 50 WNW CNM 45 SE ELP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DRT 55 ESE DRT COT 35 SSE COT ALI 25 N BRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 9V9 30 E HON 35 WNW RWF 35 NNW MKT 10 SE LSE DBQ 15 NNW OTM 15 ESE OMA 10 NNE OFK 45 E ANW 35 SSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 25 NW TUS 15 E SAD 25 SW SOW 70 ESE PGA 25 NNW SGU TPH 20 E BIH 30 NE MER 10 W RBL 15 E EKA 25 SE AST 20 NE PDX 75 NW WMC 10 SSE DPG VEL 55 S 4FC 20 E CYS 50 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 NW COD 30 W 3HT 40 ESE SDY 35 NW BIS BJI 20 ENE DLH 35 NE CMX ...CONT... 30 N JHW DUJ 15 WSW LBE UNI 25 NNE LEX HOP GLH 10 WSW GGG 35 SW TYR 35 SSE LFK BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 20 NNW TBN 25 NW COU 10 SSE FLV 55 SSW HSI 10 ENE IML 40 NNW GLD 55 NE LAA 20 ENE DDC CSM 10 SSE OKC 20 ESE TUL 10 S SGF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 10 NNE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN NEAR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.... CORRECTED GEN TSTMS POINTS LIST ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... MANITOBA CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -24C/ IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH LIKELY WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY AROUND 02Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ...FLORIDA... BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WEAK CAPPING HAS BEEN OVERCOME...WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING IMPULSE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING LIFT VICINITY OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST VERY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS ACROSS MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK NORTHWESTERN FLOW REGIME...ON PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING MEXICAN PLATEAU MID-LEVEL RIDGE...MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS DEVELOPING. ...NEW MEXICO... COLD SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO HAVE CONFINED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THESE AREAS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...WITH RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... LIFT/DESTABILIZATION NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CASCADES. ..KERR.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 00:50:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 19:50:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505270100.j4R10rei008197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270058 SWODY1 SPC AC 270056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW SRQ 25 N PBI ...CONT... 40 S CRP 70 W COT ...CONT... 55 SW TUS 35 SW TUS 45 NNE FHU 30 E SAD 55 NE SAD 25 SE SOW 45 SSW INW 30 W FLG 30 NW GCN 25 E SGU 35 W CDC 70 NW P38 30 NW TPH 55 NNE BIH 30 SE BIH 50 ESE FAT 20 ENE MER 10 NNE SAC 25 SSW RBL 35 WNW RBL 45 ENE ACV 30 SE OTH 30 SW SLE 25 NE SLE 50 WNW RDM 55 ESE EUG 40 ENE MFR 35 E MHS 35 E SVE 20 WSW LOL 20 NW BAM 25 SE EKO 45 WSW DPG 20 S U24 35 W 4HV 25 WNW U17 45 SE PGA 70 NNE INW 40 N GUP 30 SE DRO 30 WNW ALS 40 WSW PUB 25 W LHX 25 SSE LAA 40 ESE LBL 25 SE GAG 10 SSW CSM 40 SE CDS 75 S CDS 55 SE LBB 40 N MAF 35 SW MAF 35 E FST 60 SW SJT 25 NNW JCT 65 WNW AUS 15 NE AUS 40 SSW CLL 25 ENE GLS ...CONT... ANJ 35 SW MBL 20 SSW MKE 45 E MLI 20 N IRK 15 NE FNB 30 ESE HSI 10 SE BBW 25 S ANW 50 ENE ANW 25 W OTG 35 N MKT 40 SSE DLH 50 ENE DLH 80 NW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL CONUS THIS EVENING WITH A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...A DEEP LOW NORTH OF MN...AND ANOTHER DEEP LOW OFF OF CAPE COD. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...THERE IS AN UNUSUAL PAUCITY OF SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE NRN STREAM TROUGHS. ADDITIONALLY...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL/OUTFLOW SURGES ACROSS TX AND NM HAVE ACTED TO SHIFT THE AXIS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF GREATER MOISTURE AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SRN FL. ...NM/TX... POCKETS OF DEEP BUT POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE SRN ROCKIES/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...ANTICIPATED DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING DOES NOT WARRANT A RISK AREA. WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT IN THE WAKE OF GULF COAST MCS MAY SPUR A COUPLE OF STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL TX THIS EVENING. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ...MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES... VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE TROUGH AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS IA/MN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...S FL... STORMS WERE ALSO DIMINISHING RAPIDLY IN THIS REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 05:39:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 00:39:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505270549.j4R5nILm020329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270547 SWODY1 SPC AC 270545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW JHW 30 NW ITH 25 SSE MSV 15 ESE PHL 15 WNW BWI 25 SE PKB EVV 45 ESE VIH 10 W JEF 25 SSW IRK OTM 25 SE DBQ 35 N CGX 20 NW AZO MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ROW 45 WNW SVC 65 ENE SOW 10 NNE GNT 15 NE SAF 35 E LVS 15 SSW TCC 10 ESE CVS 50 E ROW 40 SW ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 50 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 35 NNE PHX 20 SSE P38 50 SSW U31 50 NW BIH 45 E FAT 10 WNW SAC 45 W RBL 45 SSE OTH 25 SSE HQM 35 NNE PDX 45 SE 4LW 10 NW EKO 50 SW DPG 35 ESE BCE 35 NE DRO 30 E GLD 30 NNE SUX 15 SE EAU 30 NW IWD 65 ENE ELO ...CONT... 15 E MSS 25 NE BID ...CONT... 30 NE SBY 20 ESE BKW 20 W CHA 40 NNW MOB 10 N BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MS VLY TO ERN PA/WRN NJ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SCNTRL CANADA/NCNTRL U.S. BORDER AREA WILL UNDERGO A WEST-TO-EAST ELONGATION AS SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE AND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS ERN PA/NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF UPSTREAM IMPULSES IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE...FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE MIDWEST WILL MAINTAIN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...UPPER RIDGING AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. REMNANTS OF A DEEPER SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS TX TO THE LWR MS VALLEY. MOISTURE AND LIFT FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS NEAR SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM S TX TO SRN NM AND NRN MEXICO WILL AGAIN PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW MOVING NWD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA MAY BEGIN TO TAP THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ...MIDWEST/LWR GREAT LAKES TO PA/NJ... FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OR ARCS OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD REGION OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SLGT RISK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THIS CONVECTION PASSES...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY STORM-FREE. LATEST NAM CAPE FCSTS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PA/NY WITH THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE MODEL. HOWEVER...EVEN LOW 50S F DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR APPEAR TO WARRANT THE SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...NM... OROGRAPHIC AND DIABATIC FORCING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY PRESENCE OF DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE NCNTRL U.S. TROUGH. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND FCST MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS OR PERSISTENT TSTM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY DRIER SUBCLOUD AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...TX TO LWR MS VLY... RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASED INSTABILITY IN AREAS WITH STRONGER HEATING. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX GIVEN WEAK CAP. WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...FL... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ATOP AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL HEAT AND MOISTURE. MESOSCALE FORCING/SHEAR NEAR EAST COAST SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ..CARBIN/SCHNEIDER.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 12:18:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 07:18:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505271229.j4RCT5K9017965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271226 SWODY1 SPC AC 271225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW JHW 30 NW ITH 25 SSE MSV 15 ESE PHL 15 WNW BWI 25 SE PKB EVV 45 ESE VIH 10 W JEF 25 SSW IRK OTM 25 SE DBQ 35 N CGX 20 NW AZO MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ROW 45 WNW SVC 65 ENE SOW 10 NNE GNT 15 NE SAF 35 E LVS 15 SSW TCC 10 ESE CVS 50 E ROW 40 SW ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 35 NNE PHX 20 SSE P38 50 SSW U31 50 NW BIH 45 E FAT 10 WNW SAC 45 W RBL 45 SSE OTH 25 SSE HQM 35 NNE PDX 45 SE 4LW 10 NW EKO 50 SW DPG 35 ESE BCE 35 NE DRO 35 SSW IML 45 WNW VTN 20 NE BKX 25 NE BRD 20 ESE INL ...CONT... 25 E MSS 25 NNE BOS ...CONT... 30 NE SBY 20 ESE BKW 20 W CHA 40 NNW MOB 10 N BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CTY 25 ESE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF NM... ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF STRONG WLY FLOW...SOUTH OF ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WERE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LEADING IMPULSE NOW OVER IND/OH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/PA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL LIKEWISE FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES...AND ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE MLCAPE AOB 750 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. STRONG WLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SERIES OF SMALL LINES MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG HEATING BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER DARK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. ...NM... PERSISTENT ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS AIDED IN DEVELOPING A RATHER MOIST SURFACE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM AND INTO FAR SERN AZ THIS MORNING. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. ...WRN ORE/FAR NRN CA... RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND PERSISTENCE OF 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY OVER THIS REGION. THOUGH OVERALL FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...TX TO LWR MS VLY... RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASED INSTABILITY IN AREAS WITH STRONGER HEATING. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX GIVEN WEAK CAP. WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...FL... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ATOP ABUNDANT TROPICAL HEAT AND MOISTURE. MESOSCALE FORCING/SHEAR NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ..EVANS/BOTHWELL.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 16:29:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 11:29:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505271639.j4RGdYxd017590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271636 SWODY1 SPC AC 271635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E EKA 50 ESE OTH 25 N SLE 35 SW DLS RDM 25 N 4LW 35 N SVE 35 S SVE 35 SSE TVL 50 N FAT 20 E MER 35 WSW SAC 30 E UKI 35 E EKA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ROW 40 W SVC 65 E SOW 50 NE GUP 35 SSW ALS 30 WNW RTN 15 SW TCC 10 NW CVS 50 NNW HOB 40 SW ROW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ART 10 SE UCA 35 NW EWR DOV RIC 40 E LYH BKW LOZ CGI 35 NW TBN 25 N SZL 30 SSE P35 OTM 45 SW RFD GRR 65 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE WAL 25 S RIC 15 W BLF 35 E BNA 15 ESE MSL 30 ESE CBM 30 WSW LUL 25 SE HUM ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 25 SSE RUT 20 SSW PSM ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 25 WNW GBN 35 SSW PRC 20 SW IGM 25 NNE LAS 40 NNE DRA 55 ESE BIH 40 N NID 35 NW NID 30 SSE MER 50 WSW SAC 20 SSE EKA 15 ESE 4BK 30 W SLE 30 NW PDX 30 NNW DLS 65 NE RDM 90 E 4LW 45 NW EKO 55 N ELY 25 SE CDC 25 SW 4BL 35 W ALS 20 SE LHX 50 NNW GCK 35 WSW EAR 30 NNW BUB 40 NNW 9V9 AXN 25 WNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 45 SSE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW MEXICO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OR AND NRN CA... ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... BROAD ZONE OF STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION ...SOUTH OF ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND ERN IL WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM LOCATED IN SD. ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN MO...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH WLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS INITIATE... DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING LINES OF STORMS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL IN SOME STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY COOLS...RESULTING IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...NM... MORNING SOUNDINGS WERE MOIST FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AN MCV...LOCATED ABOUT 90 S OF ELP...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ...WRN ORE/FAR NRN CA... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NRN CA COAST...COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AND MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 15-20 KT...MLCAPE VALUES TO 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...TX TO LWR MS VLY... REMNANT FRONT FROM SRN TX NEWD TO THE LA COAST MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO PRODUCE OUTFLOWS THAT LIMIT STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...FL... MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PAST YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM CTY TO ORL MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR LOCATED BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB MAY RESULT IN A FEW MICRO BURSTS IN A COUPLE OF STORMS. ..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 16:37:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 11:37:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505271647.j4RGl8Yw022951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271641 SWODY1 SPC AC 271640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E EKA 50 ESE OTH 25 N SLE 35 SW DLS RDM 25 N 4LW 35 N SVE 35 S SVE 35 SSE TVL 50 N FAT 20 E MER 35 WSW SAC 30 E UKI 35 E EKA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ROW 40 W SVC 65 E SOW 50 NE GUP 35 SSW ALS 30 WNW RTN 15 SW TCC 10 NW CVS 50 NNW HOB 40 SW ROW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ART 10 SE UCA 35 NW EWR DOV RIC 40 E LYH BKW LOZ CGI 35 NW TBN 25 N SZL 30 SSE P35 OTM 45 SW RFD GRR 65 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE WAL 25 S RIC 15 W BLF 35 E BNA 15 ESE MSL 30 ESE CBM 30 WSW LUL 25 SE HUM ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 25 SSE RUT 20 SSW PSM ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 25 WNW GBN 35 SSW PRC 20 SW IGM 25 NNE LAS 40 NNE DRA 55 ESE BIH 40 N NID 35 NW NID 30 SSE MER 50 WSW SAC 20 SSE EKA 15 ESE 4BK 30 W SLE 30 NW PDX 30 NNW DLS 65 NE RDM 90 E 4LW 45 NW EKO 55 N ELY 25 SE CDC 25 SW 4BL 35 W ALS 20 SE LHX 50 NNW GCK 35 WSW EAR 30 NNW BUB 40 NNW 9V9 AXN 25 WNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 45 SSE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW MEXICO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OR AND NRN CA... ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... BROAD ZONE OF STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION ...SOUTH OF ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND ERN IL WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM LOCATED IN SD. ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN MO...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH WLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS INITIATE... DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING LINES OF STORMS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL IN SOME STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY COOLS...RESULTING IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...NM... MORNING SOUNDINGS WERE MOIST FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AN MCV...LOCATED ABOUT 90 S OF ELP...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ...WRN ORE/FAR NRN CA... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NRN CA COAST...COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AND MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 15-20 KT...MLCAPE VALUES TO 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...TX TO LWR MS VLY... REMNANT FRONT FROM SRN TX NEWD TO THE LA COAST MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO PRODUCE OUTFLOWS THAT LIMIT STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...FL... MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PAST YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM CTY TO ORL MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR LOCATED BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB MAY RESULT IN A FEW MICRO BURSTS IN A COUPLE OF STORMS. ..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 19:51:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 14:51:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505272002.j4RK22dD013835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271950 SWODY1 SPC AC 271948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E UKI 35 ESE EKA 45 SE OTH 35 ESE SLE 45 NW RDM 45 NNW LMT 55 SSW 4LW 30 W SVE TVL 30 WSW TVL RBL 35 E UKI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 20 ENE DMN TCS 40 W SVC DUG FHU 50 NNW SAD 45 SSW INW 25 NE SOW 70 SSW GNT GNT 15 WNW 4SL ALS TAD 55 E LVS 45 WSW TCC 30 NNW ROW 45 SE ALM 35 WNW ELP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ART 10 NW GFL 10 SSE PSF POU 35 NNW EWR TTN SBY RIC LYH PSK CGI UNO SGF COU P35 40 ENE SUX DBQ 20 SW CGX SBN JXN 20 ESE MBS 60 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG LEB 25 S PWM ...CONT... 50 ENE ORF ORF RWI AND ANB 0A8 30 WSW LUL 25 SE HUM ...CONT... 25 ESE CZZ TRM DAG EDW NID 35 NW NID 30 SSE MER 50 WSW SAC 20 SSE EKA 15 ESE 4BK 30 W SLE BLI YKM 65 NE RDM 90 E 4LW SLC 10 E PUC GUC LIC DDC HUT RSL IML BFF PHP PIR AXN 15 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 40 NNE CTY DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES.... ...MID MO/MS VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES**... COLD CORE UPPER LOW HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA... WITH BELT OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW TO ITS SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME UPSTREAM...AND WILL AIDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL. LOW MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION... BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS. PEAK INTENSITIES OF STORMS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 01-02Z...WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...FOUR CORNERS STATES... STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHERE LOWER-LEVELS ARE A BIT MORE MOIST. SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... DIFLUENT...AND LIKELY AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT...UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CASCADES...SHASTA/SISKIYOUS AND NORTHERN SIERRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ...FLORIDA... MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A VERY LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AND GENERALLY BECOME CONFINED ALONG CONVERGING SEA BREEZES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 01:01:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 20:01:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505280111.j4S1B8ei022123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280108 SWODY1 SPC AC 280106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 15 ENE MRF 10 SE GDP 30 NNE ELP 50 ENE DMN 20 ESE TCS 30 W 4CR 55 SSE LVS 40 SSW DHT 10 WNW AMA 50 SW CDS 35 ENE SJT 30 W JCT DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE 4LW 35 E SVE 15 SW SVE 30 NW RBL 30 ENE 4BK 30 ENE OTH 25 S SLE 20 ESE SLE 45 NW RDM 35 S RDM 60 SSE 4LW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 S MSV 20 NNW AVP 15 E PSB 15 E MGW 35 NNW CRW 10 WSW LEX 10 SE OWB 30 ESE PAH 45 ENE DYR 30 NE MKL 60 WSW BNA 50 SSW BNA 15 NNE HSV 30 N BHM 20 NE TCL 45 SSW CBM 30 WNW JAN 55 ESE SHV 35 NE PSX 35 SSE SAT 20 SW COT 10 SW LRD ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 45 WSW GBN 45 NNW GBN 55 NNW GBN 35 S PRC 15 ESE PRC 30 N PRC 55 SW GCN 40 N IGM 35 NNE LAS 60 N DRA 30 S TPH 50 ESE BIH 35 N NID 30 NW NID 60 NNE BFL 40 NNE FAT 65 NW BIH 45 SSW TVL 35 E SAC 35 NNW SAC 35 E UKI 50 NNW UKI 15 SE CEC 15 SE OTH 45 SSE AST 15 S OLM 40 ESE OLM 25 NNW DLS 15 S DLS 30 ENE RDM 50 SW BNO 70 ENE 4LW 75 NW WMC 40 W WMC 25 SSW WMC 40 W TWF TWF 40 SE TWF 60 NNE ENV 55 W U24 30 SW U24 45 E U24 10 SSE PUC 20 SW U28 30 S 4HV 30 SSW U17 75 ESE PGA 45 NW GUP 45 NNE GUP 45 ESE DRO 55 NNE ALS 40 NW COS 25 S LIC 50 NNE GCK 15 NE DDC 35 S DDC 15 S LBL 55 S LBL 65 NE AMA 60 N CDS 10 WNW LTS 30 SE LTS 10 S ADM 30 ENE MLC 30 ESE FSM 30 SSW HRO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSW CNU 25 SSW FNB 35 NW FNB 40 E OMA 30 S FOD MCW 15 NE RST 15 NNE EAU 55 W RHI 25 ESE IWD 15 E CMX ...CONT... 35 W ANJ 10 NW MBL 25 NNE BEH 45 SW JXN 30 ENE TOL ...CONT... 15 S ART 40 NW GFL 25 SE EEN BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MIA 40 WNW MIA 40 ENE SRQ 15 ESE GNV 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MQM 55 WNW IDA 10 SSW SUN 30 N BOI 60 ESE BKE 60 SSW S80 30 ESE S80 60 E S80 35 NNW 27U 15 SW MQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN CA AND SWRN ORE... ...SRN/ERN NM TO W TX... SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA WERE SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN NM...AND EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PNHDL. A COUPLE OTHER CLUSTERS OF VIGOROUS STORM ACTIVITY WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BIG BEND...ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY. A NUMBER OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL/OUTFLOW ZONES AMIDST ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE/MAINTAIN STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...MULTICELLULAR STORM MERGERS...AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MCV ACROSS NRN MEXICO...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MORE HOURS OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SEE LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SHORT-TERM FCST INFO. ...NRN CA/SWRN ORE... VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST MOISTENING ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WERE RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE COASTAL RANGES AND SRN CASCADES OF SWRN ORE TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF CA. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...MODEST DIFFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC/DIABATIC EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS. BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SERN AZ... BAND OF STRONGER ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND MCV CIRCULATION ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO HAS AIDED DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS SERN AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS PIMA COUNTY WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS INITIATING AS CAP IS OVERCOME BY HEATING. OUTFLOW SPREADING WWD ACROSS GILA COUNTY MAY FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 40F...AND POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 05:44:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 00:44:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505280554.j4S5sbxP027658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280552 SWODY1 SPC AC 280550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ILM 40 WSW SOP 35 E HKY 40 ENE TRI 15 E JKL 55 ESE LUK 20 S CMH 30 E ZZV 25 N MGW 15 NNE HGR 15 SSE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DDC 20 SE EHA 30 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 50 SSE ALS 10 WNW LHX 55 N LAA 25 NW GLD 20 S BBW 20 WNW OLU 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK 15 N COU 25 SW JEF 55 SSW SZL 35 ENE CNU 15 SW EMP SLN 10 SE RSL 30 NNE DDC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MRF 20 W INK 10 NE HOB 45 ESE LBB 65 SSE CDS 45 SE SPS DAL 35 NE ACT 20 NW TPL 55 W TPL 40 WNW JCT 10 N P07 35 E MRF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE YUM 30 ESE EED 70 N DRA 30 E TVL 55 SE EKA 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 35 E BLI YKM 15 S PDT 25 WNW SUN 20 S 3HT 15 ENE BIL 25 S SHR 20 S LND 35 SSW RWL 35 SSW BFF 30 SW ANW 30 NE MHE 15 SW STC 35 NNE BRD 65 W RRT ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL 15 WNW GNV 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MVN 15 SSW TBN 40 SSW UNO 55 SW JBR 55 E MKL 25 NW CSV 60 SW LEX 45 WSW SDF 15 S MVN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VLY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SW AND CNTRL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM/SERN CO ACROSS KS/SRN NEB TO MO/IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN CA AND WRN ORE... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX MULTI-STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW LADEN WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES WILL REMAIN POSITIONED FROM THE NRN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY...TO THE EAST COAST. A WELL-DEFINED PACIFIC LOW WILL COME ASHORE NEAR THE ORE/CA BORDER AND PROGRESS INLAND WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 60M PER 12H SPREADING FROM THE SRN CASCADES TO NRN NV. IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM....AT LEAST TWO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DEEP CONVECTION. ONE IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO BY LATER TODAY. THE OTHER IMPULSE... LIKELY OF MESO/CONVECTIVE ORIGIN...WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY INDUCING WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL DEEP SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE. IN THE FASTER STREAM ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...ND EAST...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE NOW UNDERCUTTING THE WRN RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A STRONGER DISTURBANCE EVOLVING IN THE BASE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER MT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ENHANCE NOCTURNAL LLJ AND MCS POTENTIAL VICINITY OF KS/MO THROUGH TONIGHT. ...OH VLY TO MID ATLANTIC... STRONG IMPULSE WAS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE MIDWEST FROM IL/IND TO MO/KS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY TO ACT ON GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FROM THE DELMARVA AREA TO THE CAROLINAS. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OR LINES OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 40-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW LONGER-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW/LEE TROUGH AND LOCAL SEA/BAY BREEZE INTERACTIONS. MARGINAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY/WV/WRN VA AREA. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVELY FAST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTHWEST TO TX... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS PERSISTS IN VICINITY OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST TX/PECOS VALLEY. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/MCV. POCKETS OF STRONGER SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK/MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INITIAL STORMS WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION MAY INCREASE BY EVENING AS WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENSUES AND LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONT STRENGTHENS. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO LARGE MCS AND SPREADING NEWD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY PEAK HEATING ACROSS A LARGE REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST...FROM SRN AZ TO NM. ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SPREADING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION BUT INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS/SRN NEB TO MO VLY... MOISTURE RETURN AROUND WRN EXTENT OF WEAK SRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE WILL COMBINE WITH STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSES TO SUPPORT MODEST DESTABILIZATION FROM NERN NM/SERN CO TO KS/NEB BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND GRADUAL CAP EROSION SHOULD OCCUR AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY INITIATE FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SRN CO/NERN NM...AS WELL AS ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP FROM NERN KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KT ATOP WEAK SLY/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST IN THE SLGT RISK AREA. AN MCS MAY BE MAINTAINED ACROSS NRN MO THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING LLJ DIRECTED TOWARD THIS REGION. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... STRONG DPVA/LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY MID/UPPER LOW AS IT DRIFTS INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE TODAY. ANTECEDENT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT WILL ENHANCE STORM UPDRAFTS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING DOWNBURST. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 12:22:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 07:22:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505281232.j4SCWvAh023456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281228 SWODY1 SPC AC 281226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRE 35 SSW SOP 55 NNW RWI 55 ESE LYH 25 S CHO 25 SW EKN 15 E MGW 10 WSW AOO 15 E NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 50 WNW FST 10 NW INK 20 NNE MAF 10 ESE SJT 10 N JCT 50 WNW HDO 40 SE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 15 WNW DEN 45 WNW AKO 20 WNW OLU 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK 40 NNW SZL 10 SE FLV 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GBN 10 WSW IGM 15 WNW BIH 15 SW TVL 55 SE EKA 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 35 E BLI YKM 15 S PDT 50 SSE S80 25 NW BTM 35 N BIL 45 WSW MBG 25 NNW ABR 30 NNW FAR 75 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL 15 WNW GNV 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MVN 15 SSW TBN 10 SW HRO 55 SW JBR 55 E MKL 25 NW CSV 60 SW LEX 45 WSW SDF 15 S MVN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL OREGON... ...OH RIVER VALLEY ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS UNSEASONABLY DRY OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION WITHIN BROAD WLY FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM AS IT MOVES QUICKLY EWD TODAY. THIS MAY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON... PRIMARILY NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR WV/MD PANHANDLE REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL HINDER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL MLCAPE ATOP STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR UNDER 70+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET...THIS MAY PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES OR BRIEF SUPERCELLS. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD QUICKLY EWD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO NRN MO... AIR MASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY DRY OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. HOWEVER...PLUME OF LOWER/MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY AND ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP UNDER WITHIN 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC ANALYSES NEARING NWRN CO IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL/ERN CO AND FAR NRN NM DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR CONVERGENCE AXES OVER ERN CO PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE REGION SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED 2" IN DIAMETER...WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS HIGH LCLS LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL AWAY FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA. SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES... WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE NEAR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING E-W INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS...WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP. THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HEATING/CONVERGENCE OVERCOME CAPPING. HIGH PLAINS STORMS MAY BUILD UPSCALE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE ELEVATED STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS AND INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT. ...WRN/CENTRAL ORE... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ORE TODAY...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY...AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY...AS UPPER LOW NEARS. THUS...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SUSTAINING THEMSELVES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...TX... EXTENSIVE MCS/MCC NOW EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL TX APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEWD AHEAD OF WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTING AWAY FROM LARGER UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE TROUBLE DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS THESE STORMS SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTURE CAN OCCUR OVER SWRN TX. LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER STEEP ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT SUSTAINING MODERATE SHEAR. SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE INTO THE BIG BEND REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SWRN TX...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 16:38:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 11:38:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505281648.j4SGmk0w002175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281646 SWODY1 SPC AC 281644 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CRE FAY RWI 55 ESE LYH 25 S CHO 45 SSW MRB 10 ESE MRB 10 ENE CXY 20 ENE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 15 WNW DEN SNY 35 WNW OFK 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK 40 NNW SZL 10 SE FLV 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI YKM PDT 50 SSE S80 25 NW BTM 35 N BIL 45 WSW MBG 20 ENE ABR 10 S FAR 35 W RRT ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL GNV 40 ESE VLD 10 ESE MGR 30 SE MAI 10 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 25 SW EED 15 WNW BIH 15 SW TVL 55 SE EKA 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV 15 NNE TBN 15 ESE HRO 50 NE LIT 20 SSE MEM 15 SE MSL 25 NW RMG 35 NW AND 10 WNW CLT GSO ROA BKW 20 NNW JKL 25 SSE SDF 45 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NRN CA INTO OREGON... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY ABNORMAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES WITH BROAD ELONGATED COLD VORTEX EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE CA/OR COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. MOST NOTICEABLE ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS THAT THIS PATTERN HAS LEFT 60F DEW POINTS MOSTLY S OF 35N. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MS AND OH VALLEY AREAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE PERIOD. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS TO BE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. ...DELMARVA AREA SWD INTO ERN NC... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER S CENTRAL PA WITH WEAK ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH ERN VA INTO NRN GA. LATEST LIGHTING DETECTION LOOP SHOWS ISOLATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW NEAR THE D.C. AREA AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF SERN VA INTO THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE. ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOWS LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES JUST BELOW 8C/KM AND DCAPE JUST BELOW 600 J/KG. THUS... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LOWER PROBABILITIES EXTEND WWD INTO OHIO WHERE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7C/KM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MODELS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN CO INTO W CENTRAL MO. SREF MODELS SEEM TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS KS AND PARTS OF NEB IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET. GIVEN LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED MCS FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ...PARTS OF OREGON AND CA... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO NWRN CA IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE BETWEEN -15C AND -20C LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. TIGHT CYCLONIC HORIZONTAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT GIVEN SOME DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 20:05:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 15:05:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505282015.j4SKFJwh025468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282009 SWODY1 SPC AC 282007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 10 NNW DEN SNY BBW 25 SW OLU 30 ENE BIE 25 NNW TOP 15 SSW MHK 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ACY 20 SW TTN 25 ENE ABE 20 N JFK 20 E JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI YKM PDT 35 ESE S80 35 NE 3DU 20 ENE LWT 50 ENE Y22 65 N ATY 30 ENE FAR 65 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL GNV 40 ESE VLD 10 ESE MGR 30 SE MAI 10 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 10 NW DRA 60 SW U31 20 S RNO 35 NE UKI 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV 60 NNW POF 30 SSW UNO 55 NE LIT UOX 35 WNW BHM 25 ESE ATL 50 SE AND 20 ENE RDU 40 SSW RIC 40 SSE CHO 15 SW SSU 20 NNW JKL 45 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO/NM INTO NRN KS/SRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN CA AND ORE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NJ... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN CO AS ELONGATED TROUGH SAGS SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. STRONG SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG FOCUSED CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...NEWD INTO SCNTRL NEB WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION HAS AIDED SCATTERED CONVECTION OFF AND ON DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FAVORABLE INFLOW INTO THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH STRONG VEERING PROFILES SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS THIS EVENING. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLUSTERING/OUTFLOW FORCE CONVECTION INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE THAT WILL SAG SEWD INTO DEVELOPING LLJ OVER WRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...REMNANTS OF FRI NIGHT MCS HAS MOVED INTO FAR WEST TX ALONG NM BORDER...JUST NW OF MAF. HEATING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE PECOS REGION APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM NEAR MAF...SWWD TO EAST OF MRF. WITH STRONGEST FLOW/INSTABILITY OBSERVED FARTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. DOWNSTREAM...WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT/CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX TOWARD THE ARK/LA/TEX WITH SEVERAL ARCING BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...SEWD ALONG THE SABINE RIVER. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM SERN TX TO CNTRL MS...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. RESULTANT UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH THESE BAND OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO MS LATER TONIGHT. ...OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC... MULTIPLE N-S WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONES ARE TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...NORTH OF FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS. LOCAL PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THESE ZONES. THE LEADING ZONE OF CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ROUGHLY 500 J/KG CAPE. UPDRAFTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S. FARTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL OH WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS BEFORE IT WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER WRN PA. ...NRN CA/ORE... WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE ORE/CA COAST. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS CIRCULATION...LIGHTNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH TIME HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INSTABILITY IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER SCNTRL ORE. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 21:51:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 16:51:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505282201.j4SM1XSp004255@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282129 SWODY1 SPC AC 282128 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 282125Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 10 NNW DEN SNY BBW 25 SW OLU 30 ENE BIE 25 NNW TOP 15 SSW MHK 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ACY 20 SW TTN 25 ENE ABE 20 N JFK 20 E JFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W TPL 40 W TYR 25 NNE GGG 30 ESE SHV POE 20 W LCH 35 WNW HOU 40 W AUS 65 WNW AUS 35 W TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI YKM PDT 35 ESE S80 35 NE 3DU 20 ENE LWT 50 ENE Y22 65 N ATY 30 ENE FAR 65 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL GNV 40 ESE VLD 10 ESE MGR 30 SE MAI 10 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 10 NW DRA 60 SW U31 20 S RNO 35 NE UKI 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV 60 NNW POF 30 SSW UNO 55 NE LIT UOX 35 WNW BHM 25 ESE ATL 50 SE AND 20 ENE RDU 40 SSW RIC 40 SSE CHO 15 SW SSU 20 NNW JKL 45 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO/NM INTO NRN KS/SRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN CA AND ORE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NJ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX... AMENDED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK FOR CNTRL/ERN TX ...CENTRAL/ERN TX... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION FROM NEAR TPL TO SW OF TYR. VEERING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND A RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG...FAVOR LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO STRONG HEATING. IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP WEST ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. REF SWOMCD 1040 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...PREVIOUS 20Z OUTLOOK DISCUSSION... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN CO AS ELONGATED TROUGH SAGS SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. STRONG SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG FOCUSED CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...NEWD INTO SCNTRL NEB WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION HAS AIDED SCATTERED CONVECTION OFF AND ON DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FAVORABLE INFLOW INTO THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH STRONG VEERING PROFILES SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS THIS EVENING. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLUSTERING/OUTFLOW FORCE CONVECTION INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE THAT WILL SAG SEWD INTO DEVELOPING LLJ OVER WRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...REMNANTS OF FRI NIGHT MCS HAS MOVED INTO FAR WEST TX ALONG NM BORDER...JUST NW OF MAF. HEATING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE PECOS REGION APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM NEAR MAF...SWWD TO EAST OF MRF. WITH STRONGEST FLOW/INSTABILITY OBSERVED FARTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. DOWNSTREAM...WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT/CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX TOWARD THE ARK/LA/TEX WITH SEVERAL ARCING BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...SEWD ALONG THE SABINE RIVER. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM SERN TX TO CNTRL MS...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. RESULTANT UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH THESE BAND OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO MS LATER TONIGHT. ...OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC... MULTIPLE N-S WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONES ARE TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...NORTH OF FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS. LOCAL PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THESE ZONES. THE LEADING ZONE OF CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ROUGHLY 500 J/KG CAPE. UPDRAFTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S. FARTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL OH WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS BEFORE IT WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER WRN PA. ...NRN CA/ORE... WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE ORE/CA COAST. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS CIRCULATION...LIGHTNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH TIME HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INSTABILITY IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER SCNTRL ORE. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 01:01:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 20:01:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505290111.j4T1BZ8w003671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290109 SWODY1 SPC AC 290107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE P07 40 WSW SJT 25 SW ABI 45 ENE ABI 25 SSW DAL 20 W TYR 15 ENE GGG 25 NNE SHV 40 NNE MLU 40 NNW JAN 20 S JAN 10 S MCB LCH 15 NW HOU 30 W VCT 35 WNW ALI 25 SE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JAX 20 SE VLD 20 SE PFN ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 10 NNE PHX 40 ESE IGM 25 SSW SGU 50 SSW ELY 25 SSW U31 75 NNW LOL 55 E MHS 45 SSE MHS 40 SSW MHS 35 SE CEC 20 SSW OTH ...CONT... 20 N AST 25 SE OLM 45 ESE YKM 40 SE ALW 60 SW MSO 15 SSE 3DU 40 E LVM SHR 50 ESE WRL 30 E RIW 30 ENE BPI 40 WSW BPI 30 N EVW 40 S EVW 25 N PUC 30 ESE PUC 25 NE CNY 15 SSE GJT 30 W ASE 10 NNE EGE 45 WNW 4FC 25 W FCL 15 ENE DEN 35 W AKO 40 ESE CYS 25 NW CYS 35 N LAR 20 SSE CPR 25 NNW DGW 50 W CDR 25 E CDR 35 WNW VTN 50 SSE 9V9 45 NNE SUX 40 NNW OTM 20 ESE IRK 40 SSW STL 55 SE VIH 15 SSW CNU 20 NNW ICT 45 N P28 10 SE DDC LBL 40 SSW EHA 20 W DHT 20 N TCC 65 SW TCC 40 SE 4CR 55 ESE ALM 10 WSW CNM 20 ENE CNM 35 N HOB 30 WNW LBB 20 NNE PVW 40 W CSM 30 SSW END 25 SW TUL 50 N HOT 50 NE PBF 45 ENE GWO 40 E 0A8 15 NNW MCN 45 WSW CHS 20 WSW ILM 30 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N EFK 10 ESE PWM ...CONT... JFK 35 NW MSV 45 SW SLK 35 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BUF 20 E AOO 10 NW CHO 20 W BLF 25 W LEX 30 SW LUK 10 NNW FDY 10 WNW LAN 40 SE MTW 25 NW OSH AUW 15 NNW RHI 35 WSW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MIA 45 WNW MIA 15 SW AGR 10 SE ORL 15 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S TX TO LWR MS VLY... ...S TX TO LWR MS VLY... A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE BEING SUSTAINED BY SUBTLE STN STREAM IMPULSES ACTING ON HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY AND SERN TX THIS EVENING. THE LEADING CLUSTER WAS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NERN LA/SERN AR WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR COULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL/WIND AS THE SMALL MCS CROSSES THE MS RIVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A MORE INTENSE UPSTREAM COMPLEX...CURRENTLY WITHIN WATCH 342 OVER SERN TX...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE NOSE OF A MID LEVEL JET STREAK...WITH POSSIBLE MCV ORIGINS. THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM CNTRL LA WWD TO THE LWR PECOS VLY. OTHER WEAKLY ORGANIZED BOWING COMPLEXES OF DEEP CONVECTION WERE MOVING EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS S TX. ONE WAS MOVING ACROSS WATCH 343...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THE OTHER COMPLEX WAS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE FROM MEXICO. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO...EXPECT SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF S TX. ...ORE TO NRN GREAT BASIN/SWRN ID... COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NRN CA WITH PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING ON UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SRN/SERN ORE ACROSS ID AND NRN NV. WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTION EXISTS IN AN ARC AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE POCKETS OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PERSISTENT ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. ...CNTRL PLAINS... MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS FROM ERN CO ACROSS NEB/KS THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL. NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AS FRONTAL FORCING AND LLJ STRENGTHEN ACROSS THESE AREAS. A FEW STORMS WITHE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 05:30:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 00:30:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505290540.j4T5ettm028182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290538 SWODY1 SPC AC 290536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 45 N HDO 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO 20 SSW TCL 15 SW MGM 30 S TOI 20 WNW PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CSM 35 W CDS 40 ESE CVS 35 SW TCC 45 WSW RTN 15 NE ALS 50 ESE GUC 50 ESE ASE 30 SW DEN 20 NNE COS 30 ENE PUB LAA 55 ESE GLD 40 NNW CNK 25 SE OMA 30 ENE OTM 30 NNW PIA 25 E BMI 15 ENE MTO 20 NNE SLO 15 N STL 50 WNW STL 10 NNW COU 10 WNW SZL 35 N BVO 30 E END 15 SSE CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW EVW 50 NW PUC 25 ENE MLF 45 NNE P38 70 NW P38 70 SE U31 50 ESE U31 55 S EKO 50 NW ENV 55 SSE TWF 10 SW BYI 45 NNE BYI 30 NNW PIH 45 SE IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 35 SSW EVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DOV 10 NNE MRB ZZV 30 N LEX 35 NE BWG 45 E BNA 20 ESE AHN 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... 55 SSE FMY 30 NW AGR 55 S GNV 20 WNW CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 15 W FLG 35 ESE TPH 50 SE MHS 40 S MFR 35 NNW MFR 25 SSW PDX 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 85 WNW FCA 30 SSW 3DU 55 NW CDR 20 W MHN 40 ENE BUB 25 ESE SUX 25 ESE OTG 40 NE BKX 50 WNW ABR 60 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NV...NWRN UT...AND SERN ID... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES TO KS/MO AND THE MID MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/SERN TX ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX MULTI-STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS SYNOPTIC AND SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS DRIVING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE WEST...A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS ESEWD ACROSS NRN NV DURING THE DAY WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-60M PER 12 HOURS SPREADING OVER THE SALT LAKE VLY BY EVENING. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM...A WEAKER LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS...SITUATED WEST-TO-EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT SSEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND BACK WWD/SWWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD SRN STREAM TROUGH FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO NRN MEXICO AND S TX MAY BE THE MOST COMPLEX SYSTEM OF ALL. THIS LARGER SCALE TROUGH CONTAINS A NUMBER OF SMALLER...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED... PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST AND CONCERN WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING/MORNING CONVECTION...AND A BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW /35-40KT AT 500MB/ EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE LWR RIO GRANDE...EWD ACROSS THE NWRN AND NCNTRL GULF COAST. ...ERN NV/NWRN UT/SERN ID... FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NV/UT AND ID DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 30-45KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ROTATING/ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL FAVOR STRONG DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VLY... LIFT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN CO ACROSS KS/MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PROMOTE PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO SPUR HIGHER TERRAIN TSTMS ACROSS SRN CO AND NERN NM AT THE SAME TIME. STRONGLY BACKED POST-FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO WILL SUPPORT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY DISCRETE CELLS INITIATING NEAR OR ON THE BOUNDARY. WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH TIME IF LARGER SCALE LINEAR MCS EVOLVES ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR OVER SERN CO AND THEN SPREAD TO THE TX PNHDL THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...GULF COAST/LWR MS VLY... A LARGE LOW-PROBABILITY SLGT RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS GIVEN HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS S TX. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF INTENSE SMALL SCALE TSTM CLUSTERS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ACTIVITY...LIKELY LINKED TO MID LEVEL IMPULSE/WIND MAX MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT DEVELOPS EAST INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE/HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE...AIR MASS ACROSS S TX WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. OTHER MINOR MID LEVEL IMPULSES WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...WILL PROBABLY AID RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VLY AND TX/LA GULF COAST AREA BENEATH BAND OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH STORMS OF MORE MULTICELL CHARACTER POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FARTHER INLAND/NWWD. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY. ...NORTHEAST... COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...PERSISTENT BACKGROUND ASCENT WITHIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS...AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN PA TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES... WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN BROAD TROUGH AXIS AND HEATING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT A FEW STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG/BRIEF OUTFLOWS AND/OR HAIL. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 12:41:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 07:41:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505291251.j4TCpxZV026381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291249 SWODY1 SPC AC 291247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO TCL 30 W AUO 25 NNW DHN 20 WNW PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW CSM 35 W CDS 40 ESE CVS 35 SW TCC 45 WSW RTN 15 NE ALS 50 ESE ASE 25 SW DEN 25 SSE LIC 25 SE GLD 40 NNW CNK 25 SE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25 N COU 30 ESE MKC 40 SE P28 10 SW CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW EVW 50 NW PUC 25 ENE MLF 45 NNE P38 70 NW P38 70 SE U31 50 ESE U31 55 S EKO 50 NW ENV 55 SSE TWF 10 SW BYI 45 NNE BYI 30 NNW PIH 45 SE IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 35 SSW EVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 25 SSW FLG 30 NW GCN CDC 35 E TPH 30 SE SVE 50 SE MHS 45 SSW MFR 40 NW MFR 25 SSW PDX 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 85 WNW FCA 30 SSW 3DU 15 WSW DGW 25 WNW MHN 30 E BUB 45 SE SUX 30 SSW FRM 20 N RWF 35 NNE ABR 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 SE NEL 35 NNE HGR 30 E DAY 30 N SDF 30 NNE BWG 40 ESE BNA 25 E AND 15 SW CRE ...CONT... 60 WSW MIA 30 W AGR 55 WNW ORL 35 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO...AND ARE FOCUSING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MS/AL AND ERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE FRONT REMAINS WELL DEFINED AT 12Z FROM SRN AL WWD INTO ERN TX...WITH A VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS TO ITS SOUTH. APPEARS STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL BE PREVALENT AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF ERN TX TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EVIDENT ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER LA INTO SRN MS ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT AS AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR BY THE MID MORNING AS LCH SOUNDING INDICATES A CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE UPPER 70S /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1050/. SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE MCS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE SHEAR AND E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT MAY FOCUS POSSIBLE BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS SEVERE THREAT SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME CAP AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND OTHER SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SHEAR REMAINS RESPECTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION UNDER 25-35 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING CLUSTERS/LINES OF SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN SPREAD TOWARDS THE TX COAST WITH THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MO WWD INTO E-CENTRAL CO WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP FROM SERN CO/WRN KS INTO MO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG UNDER 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT AND WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER WRN PORTION OF OUTLOOK REGION. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG...COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NV THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SRN/ERN ID SWD ACROSS WRN UT BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG WINDS/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN ORGANIZATION INTO LINES AND SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 16:44:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 11:44:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505291654.j4TGsYlZ029012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291650 SWODY1 SPC AC 291649 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS 25 SW PSX 10 N ALI 30 ESE COT 10 SE HDO 55 W AUS 40 WSW TPL 10 E TPL 45 SW LFK 55 S LFK 15 NNE GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EVW 35 NNW PUC 50 ESE U24 20 ENE MLF 30 W MLF 30 SE ELY 35 NNE ELY 45 W ENV 50 NW ENV 50 SSW TWF 35 NNW TWF 25 E SUN 30 NNW PIH 45 SE IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 30 SE EVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 45 E AMA 50 SW AMA 35 SW TCC 20 NNE LVS 15 NE ALS 50 WSW COS 20 NW COS 25 SSE LIC 50 SSE GLD 40 NNW CNK 40 SSE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25 N COU 30 ESE MKC 30 WSW ICT GAG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO TCL 30 W AUO 25 NNW DHN 20 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 45 WNW FLG 40 ESE SGU LOL 35 WNW SVE 15 WNW LMT 25 ESE SLE OLM 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 15 NE LWS 55 WSW MSO 50 W GTF 30 E GTF 30 WNW LWT 50 ESE LWT 45 NE SHR 50 N DGW AIA 15 ESE BBW 25 S OLU 30 ENE OMA 20 ESE MCW 20 ESE MKT 60 SW FAR 20 SE P24 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 20 E BHB ...CONT... 10 S ACY 20 ESE HGR 20 NNW MGW 35 NE ZZV 20 N CMH 30 NNW LEX 10 SW SDF 10 ESE EVV 25 NNW HOP 25 NNW BNA 20 SSE CSV 35 NW AND 40 SE CAE 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 30 SSE GNV 20 W CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN ID INTO CENTRAL UT... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED COLD TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED MID/UPR LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN CA. THIS LEAVES A CONTINUED BLOCKING LIKE PATTERN OVER THE NRN U.S. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT BASICALLY REACHED FROM SERN CO THRU NRN MO AND CENTRAL IL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BLOCK ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. PREVIOUS DAYS OF CONVECTION HAVE LEFT A COLLECTION OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARIES ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FOR AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS. NAM MODEL TAKES NRN CA LOW AND MOVES IT SLOWLY ESEWD TOWARDS SWRN UT. THE NAMKF HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS UT AND THEN BREAKS OFF THE WRN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH AND RETROGRADE IT INTO MT. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE WITH HEATING THE APPROACHING FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN CO NEWD INTO NRN MO. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... MODELS DEPICTED SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ENHANCING UVVS IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW OVER SERN/E CENTRAL CO AND MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM S CENTRAL KS ENEWD INTO W CENTRAL MO. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...SRN AREAS OF TX EWD THRU THE LWR MS VLY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 12Z RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ASSOCD VORTICITY MAX OVER W CENTRAL TX IN THE MAF-ABI-SJT VICINITY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WAVE...AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD/SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF TX...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING AN MCS DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAN THE 12Z NAM MODEL. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF TX WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA AS BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 M2/S2 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ...CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN NV THRU THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN PARTS OF ID SWWD INTO ERN NV/WRN UT. STEEP LAPSE RATES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5C/KM INDICATES MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 19:55:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 14:55:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505292005.j4TK5rHL015631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291956 SWODY1 SPC AC 291954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE HOU 20 SE VCT 10 ESE NIR 35 NE COT HDO 55 W AUS 40 WSW TPL 50 E ACT 15 SW LFK 40 NW BPT 25 ENE HOU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EVW 35 WNW PUC 50 ESE U24 20 NE MLF 50 WNW MLF 20 N ELY 10 SSE EKO 15 NE OWY 60 NNW OWY 45 E BOI 35 NE SUN 40 WNW IDA 45 SW JAC 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 30 S EVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 45 E AMA 50 SW AMA 35 SW TCC 20 NNE LVS 15 NE ALS 50 WSW COS 25 NW COS 20 NNE LHX 55 NNW GCK 35 NNW CNK 40 SSE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25 N COU 30 ESE MKC 30 WSW ICT GAG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 55 E P07 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD GWO 35 SSE CBM 30 WSW AUO 40 NNE DHN 20 ESE DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 45 WNW FLG 40 ESE SGU LOL 35 WNW SVE 15 WNW LMT 25 ESE SLE OLM 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 15 NE LWS 55 WSW MSO 50 W GTF 30 E GTF 30 WNW LWT 50 ESE LWT 45 NE SHR 50 N DGW AIA 15 ESE BBW 25 S OLU 30 ENE OMA 20 ESE MCW 20 ESE MKT 60 SW FAR 20 SE P24 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 20 E BHB ...CONT... 10 S ACY 20 ESE HGR 20 NNW MGW 35 NE ZZV 20 N CMH 30 NNW LEX 10 SW SDF 10 ESE EVV 25 NNW HOP 25 NNW BNA 20 SSE CSV 35 NW AND 40 SE CAE 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 30 SSE GNV 20 W CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST/PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE DEEP S... ...S AND E TX... MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SURGE INLAND IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS WITH 70-75F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST WWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER FROM MORNING MCS AND STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING NEWD VCNTY BIG BEND AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX THIS EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND ALONG THE MEXICAN MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING. 12Z MEXICAN RAOBS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST 30-35KT H5 FLOW WAS WRAPPING NEWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE AND GIVEN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. MOREOVER... ONE OR TWO TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK. IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR MORE MCS WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING. ONE PERHAPS MAY CONGEAL OVER THE MID-UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CLIPPING SRN LA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TSTM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP ESEWD OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTO SCNTRL/DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. BOTH CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... A COOL SURGE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STALLED OVER SERN CO THIS AFTN WITH MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SERN CO MTNS. WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS ACROSS NERN NM...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE PLAINS IS HEATING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN RECENT DAYS...THOUGH IT REMAINS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO. PRIND THAT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS SERN CO AND THE RATON MESA NERN NM WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST. THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS EVOLVING SWD THROUGH THE TX/OK PNHDLS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND MONDAY WILL HAVE A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL. ...DEEP S... H5 VORT MAX CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE MS DELTA REGION WITH AN EXPANSIVE TSTM CLUSTER WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN MS. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ATOP A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DROPPING SWD FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN VLY. BUT...SRN PORTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EWD ALONG AN AXIS OF MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS SRN AL AND THE EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL THROUGH THIS EVE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND WITH EWD EXTENT. ...NRN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN NV UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS FROM ERN NV AND SRN ID INTO NRN UT THROUGH EVENING. MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AOA 45 KTS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES. ..RACY.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 00:57:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 19:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505300107.j4U17XL1027825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300102 SWODY1 SPC AC 300100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW NIR 35 NW NIR 15 E SAT 35 NNE CLL 25 SW LFK 45 NNW BPT 30 W BPT 35 E NIR 15 WSW NIR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CVS 20 SSE TCC 35 SE LVS 40 SW RTN 30 WNW TAD LHX GCK 15 SSE DDC 50 NNE GAG 15 S GAG 50 ENE AMA 55 NE CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BYI 20 SE TWF 30 NW TWF 25 WSW SUN 35 ENE SUN IDA 55 SE IDA 35 E MLD 40 SE BYI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW P07 25 WNW P07 10 SSE FST 40 ENE FST 30 SSE BWD 45 S DAL 10 SE TYR 45 SE SHV 40 SSE MLU 40 ENE JAN 15 E SEM 20 NE TOI 25 N DHN 20 SE DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 25 SSW BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE ACY 10 NNE IPT 15 SSE JHW 15 NNE YNG 10 N UNI 30 N LEX 15 NNW EVV 20 E MDH 20 E CGI 30 SSW PAH BNA 25 SW HKY 30 NNW FLO 10 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE FMY AGR 35 SSE GNV 20 W CTY ...CONT... 20 SSE FHU 35 NW SOW 20 S U17 30 WSW 4HV 20 SW U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE 4LW 60 NNW 4LW 30 N RDM 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 50 E S80 50 WSW COD 25 E CPR 35 ESE AIA 35 NNW GRI 45 WNW DSM 30 W ALO 35 WSW RST 30 NNE RWF 15 N BIS 75 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE ID... ...GULF COAST STATES... RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TX WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EAST TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. A VORT MAX ANALYZED OVER WCNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE REGION PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NE TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA...CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 75 F ARE CREATING STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS IN SE TX AND LA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH SUPERCELL LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE A TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH TORNADO THREAT MAY DROP OFF SOME...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LOW MOVES EWD. THE MCS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS LA REACHING SRN MS LATE TONIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SE CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO MO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE NEW STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS HOWEVER...A FEW MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ...SRN ID/NW UT/NE NV... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER NRN NV WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING NWD ACROSS NRN NV INTO SRN ID. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WHICH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SERN ID. DUE TO SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 01:15:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 20:15:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505300125.j4U1Pw7Q002170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300117 SWODY1 SPC AC 300116 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW NIR 35 NW NIR 15 E SAT 35 NNE CLL 25 SW LFK 45 NNW BPT 30 W BPT 35 E NIR 15 WSW NIR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CVS 20 SSE TCC 35 SE LVS 40 SW RTN 30 WNW TAD LHX GCK 15 SSE DDC 50 NNE GAG 15 S GAG 50 ENE AMA 55 NE CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BYI 20 SE TWF 30 NW TWF 25 WSW SUN 35 ENE SUN IDA 55 SE IDA 35 E MLD 40 SE BYI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW P07 25 WNW P07 10 SSE FST 40 ENE FST 30 SSE BWD 45 S DAL 10 SE TYR 45 SE SHV 40 SSE MLU 40 ENE JAN 15 E SEM 20 NE TOI 25 N DHN 20 SE DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 25 SSW BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE ACY 10 NNE IPT 15 SSE JHW 15 NNE YNG 10 N UNI 30 N LEX 15 NNW EVV 20 E MDH 20 E CGI 30 SSW PAH BNA 25 SW HKY 30 NNW FLO 10 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE FMY AGR 35 SSE GNV 20 W CTY ...CONT... 20 SSE FHU 35 NW SOW 20 S U17 30 WSW 4HV 20 SW U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE 4LW 60 NNW 4LW 30 N RDM 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 50 E S80 50 WSW COD 25 E CPR 35 ESE AIA 35 NNW GRI 45 WNW DSM 30 W ALO 35 WSW RST 30 NNE RWF 15 N BIS 75 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD ID... ...GULF COAST STATES... RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TX WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EAST TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. A VORT MAX ANALYZED OVER WCNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE REGION PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NE TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA...CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 75 F ARE CREATING STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS IN SE TX AND LA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE A TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY DROP OFF SOME...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LOW MOVES EWD. THE MCS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS LA REACHING SRN MS LATE TONIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SE CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO MO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE NEW STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS HOWEVER...A FEW MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ...SRN ID/NW UT/NE NV... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER NRN NV WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING NWD ACROSS NRN NV INTO SRN ID. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WHICH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SERN ID. DUE TO SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 05:37:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 00:37:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505300547.j4U5luST030148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300545 SWODY1 SPC AC 300543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MAF 20 SSW HOB 30 NW RTN 25 W COS 30 NE DEN 25 ENE AKO 25 NNE GLD 60 N GCK 45 NNW GAG 30 NW ABI 40 SE BGS 20 SSE MAF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 WNW BPT 30 WNW POE 40 SSW JAN 30 WSW TOI 20 SSW DHN 10 SE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SSW ABQ 75 SE PGA 50 SSE ELY 30 WNW TWF 55 N BOI 40 S BKE 80 S BNO 60 ENE SVE 40 ENE RBL 30 WNW MHS 40 NE BLI ...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 35 NNW WRL 30 SW CDR 25 NW LBF HSI 35 SSW FNB 35 W JEF 10 SW MTO 40 NNW DNV 45 NNE ALO 40 ENE ABR 50 ENE BIS 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... A BROAD UPPER-LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SCNTRL US WILL SLIDE EWD TODAY SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND EWD FROM A LOW IN ERN TX/LA EWD ACROSS CNTRL MS...CNTRL AL INTO GA. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS LA AND MS. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WHICH COULD IMPEDE SFC HEATING. WHERE SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR...THE MID 60 TO MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON IN SRN MS...SHOW 25 TO 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. AS THE MCS SPREADS EWD DURING THE DAY...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH NEW STORMS THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE MCS ONGOING NOW IN SE TX AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE 0-1 KM SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A LARGE MCS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD CAUSE THE INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS/CO HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW OVER NV WILL OPEN AND SLIDE EWD TODAY INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND MIDDAY SPREADING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE CO SHOW SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN CO AND NE NM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH FASTER MOVING STORMS. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION... AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO ERN NY...ERN PA EXTENDING SWD ACROSS VA. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S F LIKELY RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY AFTERNOON. A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE MODERATE SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 12:52:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 07:52:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505301302.j4UD2sjT014307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301259 SWODY1 SPC AC 301258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MAF CNM LVS 15 S COS LIC 40 W GLD GLD 15 NE GCK 45 NNW GAG 30 NW ABI 40 SE BGS 25 SSE MAF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DPG SLC 20 SSE EVW 50 WNW CAG 50 W EGE MTJ 35 NNW CEZ 10 N U17 10 E BCE 10 E MLF 25 W U24 DPG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB 25 SSE CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW GLS 45 SW LFK 35 NW POE 40 SSW JAN TOI 35 NE ABY 25 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 35 NNW WRL 30 SW CDR 30 SSE HSI 45 SW OJC 45 ESE TBN 25 E MDH 30 NNE DNV 45 NNE ALO 15 NNW AXN 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 WSW BCE 30 NW ELY 30 WNW TWF 55 N BOI 40 S BKE 80 S BNO 60 ENE SVE 40 ENE RBL 40 SW MHS 40 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 20 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 50 ESE DLH RHI 45 SE ESC 10 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT/CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES... ...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES... PREFER FASTER GFS SOLUTION OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CYCLONE ... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TX...MOVING EWD INTO MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THREAT AND COVERAGE IS COMPLICATED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN GULF THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION CLUSTER...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN MS/SERN LA..TO MOVE EWD TROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT SHOULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION. BIGGEST CONCERN IS DENSE CLOUD CANOPY THAT COVERS AREA FROM GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING WITH CONVECTION SOUTH OF AL/FL PANHANDLE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS FROM SERN LA/SRN MS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SWRN AL/FL PANHANDLE AS WEAKENING CONVECTION/ THINNING CLOUDS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT AS LINE MOVES EWD. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS EWD INTO SRN GA WHERE MORE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN TX/SRN LA AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EWD. ...UT/WRN CO... AS A SMALL...BUT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW...LOCATED NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER SWEEPS EWD TODAY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE ROTATION IN STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IN WRN UT WILL BE HAIL. HOWEVER..AS THE FORCING SHIFTS EWD...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD...SHARP TROUGH ALOFT WITH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SERN WY SWD INTO CENTRAL NM BY 00Z. THOUGH STRONG LIFT IS FORECAST ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL MOIST NELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. CLOUDS ALSO COVER SERN CO/ERN NM THIS MORNING...BUT A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN SOME SUNSHINE/HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. IF MLCAPES CAN REACH 1500-2000 J/KG AS DEPICTED BY MODELS...THEN 30-40KT MID LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT TORNADOES. THE STORM DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP A COLD POOL THIS EVENING...WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT IN EXTREME SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FROM ACROSS NRN VA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY PROVIDE A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 16:15:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 11:15:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505301624.j4UGOueu001382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301619 SWODY1 SPC AC 301618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PUC 45 NNE PUC 30 N VEL 45 SE RKS 40 SW LAR 45 E LIC 10 ESE LBL 30 W GAG 20 NNE CDS 60 WNW ABI 35 SE BGS 60 SSE MAF 20 S INK 25 NNE CNM 45 NE 4CR 65 NNW LVS 30 S ALS 45 NNW DRO 40 SSW CNY 40 SW PUC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HOU 60 E CLL 15 ENE LFK 45 N POE 30 WSW LUL 50 SSW SEM 25 ESE DHN 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AXN 45 SW FAR 30 NE DIK 10 WNW GDV 80 WNW MLS 35 NNE BIL 35 NNE COD 45 SSE SHR 20 NW CDR 25 E GRI 35 SSE BIE 30 NNE TOP 45 NNW COU 20 N DEC 25 NNW LAF 35 WSW LNR 20 W MSP 15 WNW AXN ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N TPH 65 SSE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SW MHS 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GSB 35 NE RWI 40 N RWI 30 E DAN 35 S PSK 35 N CSV 25 SSW BNA 50 NE MSL 30 E CHA 30 NW CAE 30 SSW SOP 20 WSW GSB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL MT TODAY WITH A VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SERN TX WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EWD WITH STRONGER FLOW S OF UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER GULF. COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS SPREAD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH CROSSING ROCKIES MOVING INTO WRN CO ATTM. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THRU ERN UT INTO SRN NV. CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED THE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OFF SHORE OF GULF COAST. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 40-50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CROSS CO/NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. COLD ADVECTION WITH TROUGH COUPLED WITH HEATING WILL CREATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN CO/ERN UT FOR RATHER EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NERN UT AND WRN CO. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. REF MCD #1073 FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CURRENTLY STABLE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE. PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DESTABILIZE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO SWD INTO ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE. WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM/SERN CO. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW LCL'S NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE MORE INTO A SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AS THEY PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS PLAINS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL INCREASING. ...GULF COASTAL REGIONS... WHILE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NOW OFFSHORE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TX EWD TO FL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR. WHILE SHEAR MUCH OF GULF STATES IS RELATIVELY WEAK...A LITTLE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AVAILABLE WITH AND E OF WEAK UPPER LOW ERN TX FOR POSSIBLE MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KT AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MULTICELLULAR. ...SERN FL... HAVE ADDED LOW PROB'S OF SEVERE SERN FL WHERE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOTED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. REF #1074. ...NERN U.S... WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK UNDER E/W COLD TROUGH AXIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES FOR 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN HIGHLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN NY/NERN PA ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 20:48:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 15:48:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505302058.j4UKwFcW023460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302012 SWODY1 SPC AC 302010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CNY 10 W VEL 30 N VEL 45 SE RKS 40 SW LAR 45 E LIC 10 ESE LBL 30 W GAG 20 NNE CDS 60 WNW ABI 35 SE BGS 60 SSE MAF 20 S INK 25 NNE CNM 45 NE 4CR 65 NNW LVS 30 S ALS 45 NNW DRO 30 SE CNY 40 NNE CNY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HOU 60 E CLL 15 ENE LFK 45 N POE 30 WSW LUL 50 SSW SEM 25 ESE DHN 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AXN 45 SW FAR 30 NE DIK 10 WNW GDV 80 WNW MLS 35 NNE BIL 35 NNE COD 45 SSE SHR 60 S PHP 10 SE OFK 30 ESE LNK 30 NNE TOP 45 NNW COU 20 N DEC 25 NNW LAF 35 WSW LNR 20 W MSP 15 WNW AXN ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N TPH 65 SSE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SW MHS 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GSB 35 NE RWI 60 SW RIC 15 SSE LYH PSK 35 N CSV 25 SSW BNA 50 NE MSL 30 E CHA 25 SE SPA 30 SSW SOP 20 WSW GSB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CO INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES AND ERN NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA/NV ON SUNDAY HAS PHASED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADED INTO MT FROM ELONGATED TROUGH THAT WAS LOCKED IN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS TAKEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX OVER THE UT/CO BORDER AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER NWRN CO WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN CA. ...CO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND TX... AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS CO THOUGH TONIGHT... LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE DEN AREA AND STRENGTHEN AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACCORDING TO 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS WITH VALUES AROUND 7.5C/KM. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 55 KT AND BRN SHEAR ABOVE 100 M2/S2. THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... LEFTOVER QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 8C/KM INDICATE THE THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND... HAVE EXPENDED LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION AS DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN -20 TO -25C ALOFT TEMPERATURES HAS RESULTED IN INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY OF THESE ARE LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF PROVIDING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 00:45:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 19:45:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505310055.j4V0tDbr008599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310031 SWODY1 SPC AC 310029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE FST 25 N INK 55 SW TCC 30 WSW PUB 30 NE DEN 50 NW AKO 25 SSW SNY 40 W IML 55 SSE GLD 10 ESE LBL 35 NNW CDS 50 ENE BGS 55 W SJT 35 NE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N TPH 65 SSE TVL 30 ENE SAC 15 NNE RBL MFR 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIN 10 NNW DEC 40 N CMI 25 WSW CGX 35 NW LSE 10 WNW AXN 30 WSW JMS 20 WNW GDV 85 WNW MLS 25 N BIL 35 S BIL 35 S SHR 55 SSW PHP 10 SE OFK 15 NE STJ 40 S IRK 30 S UIN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GSB 15 E RWI 50 N RWI 45 ESE LYH PSK 55 WSW LOZ 40 E BNA 55 SSE BNA 35 W CHA 50 NNW AHN 25 SE SPA 30 SSW SOP 25 SW GSB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE EWD MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG ASCENT SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SRN CO. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 50S F AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING IN SE CO AND NE NM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...KEEPING THE TORNADO THREAT GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO...THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE FROM ERN CO TO WEST TX WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS IN FAR ERN CO. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MCS ENTERS WRN KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...SRN GA/FL... AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN GA WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND ACROSS ERN FL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY PARTIALLY DUE TO 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE. THE MARGINAL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 05:29:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 00:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505310539.j4V5dOTf011163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310536 SWODY1 SPC AC 310534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE AUS 30 NNW SAT 15 WNW JCT 15 SSW BGS 20 S TCC 55 SSE RTN 30 ESE RTN 45 N CAO 10 E EHA 30 WNW GAG 30 ENE GAG 20 SSW HUT 35 SSW OLU 20 E OLU 15 WNW OMA 20 SSE OMA TOP 40 N PRX 45 S TYR 20 ENE CLL 30 SSW CLL 25 SE AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 20 WSW AXN FOD 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 25 SSW P07 35 SSW INK 30 SE SAF 50 NE 4SL 25 W ALS 55 N ALS 55 ENE GUC 25 ESE ASE 15 NNE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 40 N ENV 40 SSW EKO 25 WSW BAM 60 NNW LOL 25 ENE SVE 30 NW RNO 65 WNW BIH 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 30 NE MHS 70 N 4LW 25 SSW PDT 50 SE EPH 15 NW YKM 15 E AST 25 NNE UIL ...CONT... 25 NNE HVR 65 ESE HVR 65 WNW MLS 20 SE MLS 40 N REJ 40 NNE Y22 35 SSE P24 50 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 20 ENE LCI 20 SSE CON 20 SW BOS 10 SSW EWB ...CONT... 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20 WSW LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY SPREADING STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY PUSHING A WEAKENING MCS EWD ACROSS OK AND KS. FARTHER WEST...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE MORNING MCS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TX AND THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY IN THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE BACKED SFC WINDS AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS FORECAST BY THE GFS/NAM AND NAMKF TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS NW TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS WITH A TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE BY THE LATE EVENING AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WCNTRL KS. HOW LONG THIS MCS CAN PERSIST DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF PARTIAL CLEARING CAN OCCUR...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN OK EXTENDING NWD INTO SE NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER AND FASTER MOVING STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ...NRN FL/SRN GA... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS SRN GA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NRN FL BY MID-AFTERNOON SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 12:36:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 07:36:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505311246.j4VCkStN015412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311244 SWODY1 SPC AC 311242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLL 20 NW VCT COT DRT 25 E FST INK 60 E 4CR 30 SE LVS 25 SSE CAO DHT 45 ENE AMA 15 ENE CDS SPS 45 NE DAL 30 NW TYR CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 20 WSW AXN FOD 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 20 SSW INK 15 SE ROW 30 SE SAF 55 SSW ALS 30 WNW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 40 N ENV 40 SSW EKO 25 WSW BAM 60 NNW LOL 25 ENE SVE 30 NW RNO 65 WNW BIH 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 30 NE MHS 70 N 4LW 25 SSW PDT 50 SE EPH 15 NW YKM 15 E AST 25 NNE UIL ...CONT... 25 NNE HVR 65 ESE HVR 65 WNW MLS 20 SE MLS 40 N REJ 40 NNE Y22 35 SSE P24 50 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20 WSW LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 35 NNW BML 25 WNW LCI 20 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 15 SSE PVD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF TX AND ERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SRN MT THIS MORNING...WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE MT LOW SWWD ACROSS UT...WITH A SPEED MAX AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MOVING ESEWD THROUGH NRN AZ. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER MS IS TRAPPED UNDER UPPER RIDGE...LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NWD INTO CANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN UPPER LOW TO LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS... ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AROUND THE LBB AREA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/ DISSIPATE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DECREASES AND STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER MAF 12 SOUNDING. THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS...SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT BOUNDARY LOCATION AT MID/LATE AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT TRACK OF STORMS SUGGEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE TO A TCC-LBB-ABI LINE. THE 850 MB PROGS ALSO SHOW A THERMAL GRADIENT CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THIS FORECAST SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP WEAKEN CAP THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SPEED MAX. THE COMBINATION OF VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM AND 45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 45-55 KT. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STORMS MERGING INTO AN MCS...AND THEN MOVING SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS SWRN TX. BOTH WIND AND HAIL THREATS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX. OTHER NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING EXTENDS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH FROM NEB SWD INTO WRN OK/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RESULTANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION INHIBITING HEATING/STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM WRN/CENTRAL OK NWD ACROSS KS AND NEB. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING MAY RESULT IN AN INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS SWD INTO ERN TX...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A UPPER LOW OVER MS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SERN LA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN AL AND INTO THE NRN FL PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ...SRN FL... LINE OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING EWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED WEAK WINDS/SHEAR...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THIS MORNING BEFORE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE. ..IMY/JEWELL.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 16:15:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 11:15:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505311624.j4VGOrRn001648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311616 SWODY1 SPC AC 311615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE HOB 50 SSE CVS 45 WNW LBB 40 E LBB 55 NNW ABI 45 ENE ABI 25 ESE BWD 55 SE BWD 60 E JCT 30 SE JCT 35 SW JCT 60 SW SJT 30 ESE HOB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLL 15 N VCT 35 E COT 30 SE DRT 25 E FST INK 60 E 4CR 30 SE LVS 25 SSE CAO DHT 45 ENE AMA 15 ENE CDS SPS 45 NE DAL 30 NW TYR CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BML 25 WNW LCI 20 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 15 SSE PVD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20 WSW LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 SSW CON 20 E ORH 10 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS 25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP 30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV 40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF TEXAS AND EASTERN PORTION OF NEW MEXICO... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGHS INTO NWRN U.S. THEN WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER PLAINS WITH ENERGY BEING DIVERTED AROUND CONTINUED BLOCKING RIDGE SERN CANADA. MUCH OF MONDAYS TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES IS HEADING NEWD INTO NRN PLAINS WHILE SRN PORTION OF THE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX TRACKS FROM SRN ROCKIES INTO SWRN TX TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM AN INITIALLY WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTRAL GULF COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ALONG GULF COAST TO FL. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SERN LA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ENEWD TO SWRN AL AGAIN AS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT PER 12Z NAM RUN. REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT SRN HIGH PLAINS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED AS SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD OVER W CENTRAL TX. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL WIND MAX HEADING SEWD INTO WRN TX BY THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION TO SUPPORT RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WCENTRAL TX HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO WEAKEN WHICH REFLECTS BOTH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES. WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINING GOOD MOISTURE FLUX ALONG ERN NM/TX BORDER...AND STRONG HEATING...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WITH BRN VALUES FROM 50-60 M2/SEC2...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP VICINITY TX ERN NM/TX BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT...SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A SEVERE MCS. THIS WOULD THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MCS MOVES SEWD THRU CENTRAL TX. ...FL... LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS FL PENINSULA THIS AM...TEMPORARILY REDUCING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SERN COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCERN IS THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM INDICATING THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL GULF COAST SWD INTO THE GULF. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT ...WITH SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BY 12Z WED. WITH A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND A NEW AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN THE AFTERNOON DY1 OUTLOOK FOR AT LEAST THE WRN FL COAST FOR TONIGHT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 20:27:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 15:27:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505312037.j4VKbarT015517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 312019 SWODY1 SPC AC 312018 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E HOB 45 WNW LBB 25 NW PVW 35 ENE PVW 30 SSE CDS 55 WNW MWL 15 WNW SEP 40 ESE BWD 55 SSE BWD 25 ENE JCT 40 SSW SJT 55 SE MAF 40 E HOB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CLL 20 NNW VCT 35 E COT 30 SE DRT 25 E FST 45 NW HOB 65 ENE 4CR 35 SSW RTN 30 ESE RTN 25 ESE DHT 50 N CDS 20 ESE LTS 45 SSW ADM 40 S DUA 40 WSW TYR 20 SSE CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS 25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 40 NE MKL 40 ESE BNA 15 ENE AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP 30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV 40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ACY 25 ESE HGR 15 S LBE 20 S YNG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 40 N BML 15 SSW MWN 10 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 10 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 20 SE CTY 40 SSW GNV 40 NE PIE 35 E SRQ FMY 20 S FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM THROUGH WRN AND S CNTRL TX AND THE W CNTRL FL PENINSULA... ...NERN NM THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL TX... LATE THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN OK SWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE JUST S OF AMARILLO THEN WWD INTO NRN NM. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR JUNCTION NWWD THROUGH W TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR AMARILLO. THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF W TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING ESEWD MOVING VORT MAX OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MN WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME. FARTHER S IN MODERATE RISK AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG NRN EXTENTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND SPREAD SEWD DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. ...FL... STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN FL WHERE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS SRN FL TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL PORTIONS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THE CLUSTER OF CUMULUS IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN FL. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER W CNTRL FL WHEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE ERN GULF MAY MOVE ONSHORE...AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 00:38:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 19:38:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505010048.j410mjU2016172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010046 SWODY1 SPC AC 010044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 45 SSE CTY 30 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 35 S FMY ...CONT... 20 E GPT 15 S SEM 25 W LGC 45 SSE TYS 10 SSE ROA 30 NNE CXY 20 WNW MSV 15 E PSF 15 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BKE 50 W OWY 30 S MLD 55 ENE CAG 20 SSE DEN 25 WNW LAA 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S DHT 45 ESE DRO 25 NW SGU 50 ENE TPH 25 E UKI 25 E CEC 30 E OTH 30 SSE PDX 45 WNW BKE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL... ...CENTRAL AND NRN FL... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE WSWWD TO JUST NW OF OCALA. THOUGH LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WRN FL FROM THE ERN GULF...STRONGER STORMS ARE ONGOING IN NERN FL...WHERE THIS LINE IS IMPINGING UPON ZONE OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SELY FLOW E OF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. EVENING TBW SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATELY-STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE. THIS COMBINED WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD POOL / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SUGGEST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING REVERSES SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ...ELSEWHERE... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE PAC NW / NRN CA ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES / CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 04:19:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 23:19:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505010429.j414TMQ3021152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010426 SWODY1 SPC AC 010425 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25 S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 W TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 20 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 45 SW PUB 30 SE LBL 25 ESE CSM 10 NNW SPS 25 NNE ABI 40 NW BGS 35 NW ROW 40 S GUP 35 W GCN 45 NE DRA 75 WNW TPH 20 NE RBL 50 ESE CEC 30 NNE OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LITTLE SEVERE THREAT. ELSEWHERE...WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. THROUGH WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF W TX / ERN NM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. RESULTING WARM ADVECTION / UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORMS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN / CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE. CONVECTION MAY EXTEND AS FAR NWWD AS THE PAC NW. SHOWERS / A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST / LOWER LAKES REGION...AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND LARGER-SCALE UPPER LOW INVOF JAMES BAY. OVERALL -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL OVER THE CONUS...THUS PRECLUDING ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 12:15:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 07:15:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505011226.j41CQEPV024000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011223 SWODY1 SPC AC 011222 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25 S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 W TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 20 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 45 SW PUB 30 SE LBL 25 ESE CSM 10 NNW SPS 25 NNE ABI 40 NW BGS 35 NW ROW 40 S GUP 35 W GCN 45 NE DRA 75 WNW TPH 20 NE RBL 50 ESE CEC 30 NNE OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCALES. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THREAT. ALSO...AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ACROSS PARTS OF NV/UT...AND INTO WEST TX/OK. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS. ...FL THIS MORNING... MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MCS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND NEAR FMY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...AND THAT RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS... ORGANIZED NATURE OF MCS SUGGESTS SOME THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..HART/BANACOS.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 16:19:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 11:19:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505011630.j41GU7R6019085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011625 SWODY1 SPC AC 011624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25 S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 WSW TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 40 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 60 N ALS CAO 45 SW GAG 40 SSW LTS 30 NNW ABI 40 NW BGS 35 SSE 4CR 40 S GUP 35 W GCN 50 NNE DRA 75 WNW TPH 15 NW SVE 45 W MHS 40 S ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EXPANSIVE VORTEX OVER NRN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY WILL ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD INTO MONDAY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW/WESTERLIES ENCOMPASSING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF COLD FRONT THAT EXITED THE ERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS MORNING...SCT TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLD LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION OWING TO MODEST INSOLATION/SFC HEATING BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT. FURTHER WEST...COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSTMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING -- AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS NW TX AND PERHAPS FAR WRN OK TONIGHT INVOF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ...FL... ONGOING LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO GRAZE SOUTHWEST FL COAST/FLORIDA KEYS AT MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ALONG/SOUTH OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THICK CLOUD COVER/LIMITED LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT IS NEGLIGIBLE. ..GUYER/HALES.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 19:28:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 14:28:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505011938.j41Jcnpt018261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011930 SWODY1 SPC AC 011928 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 20 NNW MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25 S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 WSW TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 40 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 60 N ALS CAO 50 ENE AMA 40 SSW LTS 40 NW ABI 30 N MAF 40 S 4CR 55 SSW GUP 40 SW SGU 45 S BIH 50 SSW TVL 15 ESE RBL 45 W MHS 40 S ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHILE MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW PERSISTS E-W ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF NATION. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST... EXCEPT IN FL WHERE THE FRONT WAS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT NO MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...BUT THE SHALLOW DEPTH BETWEEN THE LFC AND EL SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY LIMITED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. FURTHER WEST...COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SRN ROCKIES REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..IMY.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 00:41:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 19:41:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505020051.j420pmTL023437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020049 SWODY1 SPC AC 020048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 40 NNW YKM 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 35 S TWF 25 ENE ENV 35 SW PUB 40 NNW TCC 15 SW AMA 20 ENE PVW 35 SSE LBB 10 ENE HOB 15 S 4CR 30 NNE FLG 55 NE LAS 60 ENE U31 20 ESE LMT 45 ESE EKA 25 NE ACV 40 N ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL FL...AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE WRN CONUS...SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY -- MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION / SRN ROCKIES. ..GOSS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 05:48:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 00:48:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505020558.j425waa1013340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020556 SWODY1 SPC AC 020554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ACY 15 SW DOV 15 S BWI 35 S IPT 35 ESE BGM 15 W LEB 25 WNW AUG 30 SE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 35 ESE BKE 10 SE TWF 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 30 SE EHA 15 NNE CSM 40 W ADM 40 SSE SEP 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS 15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 50 NNW NID 45 ENE SCK EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WHILE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATES EWD THROUGH THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. / SRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SPREADING SWD / SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS WITH TIME. THOUGH GENERALLY COOL / STABLE AIR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS AS A RESULT...SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS. ...BIG BEND / RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OF TX... SELY FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW MARGINAL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWWD TOWARD THE TRANSPECOS REGION...AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THOUGH DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION -- IS IN QUESTION ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SWWD PROGRESS OF SECONDARY COLD SURGE NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS / WRN N TX. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST INVOF THE RIO GRANDE. ASSUMING STORMS DO DEVELOP...35 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND LOCATION OF FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. HOWEVER...GREATER MOISTURE RETURN / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION / SRN NEW ENGLAND... MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/ AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DESPITE COLD /-28C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SHOWERS / A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER FEATURE / DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH. FAIRLY STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. OVERALL HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ..GOSS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 12:27:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 07:27:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505021237.j42CbxSJ005749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021235 SWODY1 SPC AC 021233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 35 ESE BKE 10 SE TWF 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 30 SE EHA 15 NNE CSM 40 W ADM 40 SSE SEP 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS 15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 50 NNW NID 45 ENE SCK EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ACY 15 SW DOV 15 S BWI 35 S IPT 35 ESE BGM 15 W LEB 25 WNW AUG 30 SE AUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ILL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY INTO KY/TN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THESE AREAS...SUGGESTING THAT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP. FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN NH INTO MD. DESPITE CAPE VALUES ONLY IN THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATE A THREAT OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF DEEP CONVECTION... AS WELL AS MINIMAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES. ...SOUTHWEST TX... MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS TX TODAY...WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INDICATE A MARGINAL THREAT OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ANY STORMS SOUTH OF FRONT COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. ...FL... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..HART/BANACOS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 15:45:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 10:45:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505021555.j42FtIoS024140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021552 SWODY1 SPC AC 021550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS 15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 60 NW NID 45 NE SCK 45 WSW RBL 45 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 20 W ALW 20 NNW GEG 55 NE GEG 25 W MSO 30 NE 27U 55 WNW IDA 15 ESE OGD 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 25 E TAD 40 NE CVS 60 NNW ABI 15 E MWL 25 WNW AUS 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ORF 20 SSW NHK 10 S DCA 30 SSW IPT 25 N UCA BTV 25 ESE BML 30 SE AUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS COVERS CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S FL. AS A RESULT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS QUITE LIMITED FOR EARLY MAY. A STRONG COLD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WITH A FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO OFF SRN ENGLAND COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY SOME RETURN FLOW OF MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS IS MAKING ITS MAY BACK INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PRIMARILY W OF THE RIVER. ...NERN U.S... HAVE CONTINUED A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN MD/DE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT MUCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 200-300 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS THAT DEVELOP PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS AS LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONALLY SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT HAIL SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE COLD AIRMASS. ...BIG BEND AREA OF LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON SELY FLOW INTO THIS AREA...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE ON THE MEXICO SIDE OF RIO GRANDE RIVER. LOW CLOUDINESS NOW ACROSS BIG BEND AREA WILL DELAY HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO AND THEN DEVELOP UNDER 30-40 KT OF WLY FLOW ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND WITH EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY CONFINED TO MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IF SUFFICIENT CAPE CAN DEVELOP INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SOON LOW CLOUDINESS NOW ACROSS REGION CAN DISSIPATE. ...SRN FL... SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO INTRODUCING LOW SEVERE THREAT INTO SRN FL...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT DURING AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. ..HALES/GUYER.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 19:58:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 14:58:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505022009.j42K92om024090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022004 SWODY1 SPC AC 022002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS SOW IGM 60 NW NID 45 NE SCK 45 WSW RBL 45 SSW OTH ...CONT... 60 E BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 20 W ALW 20 NNW GEG 55 NE GEG 25 W MSO 30 NE 27U MQM OGD 50 N PUC 50 ESE ASE TAD 50 WSW CVS HOB BGS JCT HDO 65 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY ILG IPT SYR SLK BML 30 SE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED FOR REMAINDER DAY-1 BY LARGE CYCLONE OVER ERN CANADA...AS NUMEROUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM LE SWD ACROSS WRN NC -- IS FCST TO ACCELERATE NEWD...DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY COLD FRONT OVER NWRN ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE FROM COAST...EXCEPT WHERE TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL FL AS QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND ALSO WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ...SW TX - RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DENSE STRATUS DECK PERSISTING -- GENERALLY OVER AND W OF RIO GRANDE FROM BRO-DRT...THEN NWWD UP PECOS VALLEY AND OVER MOST OF ERN NM. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS LOW CLOUDS RESTRICT SFC HEATING FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ON HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA AND WRN TRANS-PECOS REGION. MOST FAVORABLE SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE FROM MOUTH OF PECOS RIVER SEWD ALONG MEX MOUNTAIN FRONT AND FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE W DRT...PRIND RISK OF SEVERE IS TOO SMALL FOR 5 PERCENT OR GREATER PROBABILITIES BY THE TIME SUCH ACTIVITY CROSSES OVER 70-100 NM OF STRATIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH BORDER. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND FROM BOTH COASTS...POSSIBLY INTERSECTING BY ABOUT 22-23Z ALONG AXIS FROM KISSIMMEE VALLEY ACROSS OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO EVERGLADES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL AMIDST VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 00:52:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 19:52:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505030102.j4312P5j029658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030100 SWODY1 SPC AC 030058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FLG 40 ESE NID NFL 70 S BNO 65 ENE BNO 25 SW SUN 10 W OGD 20 W PUC 30 N MTJ 30 NNE ALS 35 W RTN 35 SSW LVS 45 W ONM 40 S FLG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MIA 45 SSE AGR VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS EXTREME SERN FL. ...SRN FL... TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE ACROSS SERN FL VCNTY OF A WEAK SEABREEZE. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS. THE TSTMS THREAT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...OR DIMINISH ALTOGETHER...AFTER 03Z AS THE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. ...GREAT BASIN/SRN ROCKIES... SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z. AS A RESULT...TSTMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT VCNTY THE 4-CORNERS ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..RACY.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 05:13:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 00:13:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505030523.j435NFlV013902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030520 SWODY1 SPC AC 030519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U31 65 ESE 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 30 ESE RDM 50 E DLS 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 25 NNW HLN 35 NE JAC 50 SSE LND 10 NW LAR 40 ESE CYS 15 NE AKO 35 W GLD 15 SE LAA 40 ENE RTN 45 WNW CVS 35 NE HOB 50 NW ABI 25 SSW BWD 25 N SAT 15 N NIR 25 NE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE NATION WILL DEAMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LEAVING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A COOL CP AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF THE ERN-TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...PRECLUDING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... A FEW TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL TUESDAY. A FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE KEYS WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FLOWING NWD AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING EWD FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TSTMS...NOW OVER THE SERN GULF...WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT/FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...RIO GRANDE VLY INTO W TX... 00Z H85 CHART SHOWED A SECONDARY SURGE OF CP AIR MASS HEADED SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE COOL ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WWD BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE VLY TO ALONG THE NERN MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. APPROACH OF THE WEAK SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ATOP THE COLD DOME IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS W TX SEWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VLY. SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER...IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE COOL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY/LEVIT.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 12:36:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 07:36:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505031246.j43CkQQI026761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031245 SWODY1 SPC AC 031243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW 30 WSW ELY 40 NW TWF 30 WNW BOI 80 E 4LW 40 NW SVE 45 SSW RBL 55 NNW UKI 15 NNE MFR 40 NW RDM 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF 30 E 3HT 40 SE BIL 25 SE WRL 50 ESE RIW 25 NE RWL 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 40 SE LIC 25 SSE PUB 25 NW CAO 30 WSW TCC 35 SSW CVS 15 SW PVW 40 NNE ABI 35 SE BWD 20 WNW NIR 30 ENE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. RATHER DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE NATION WILL PROVIDE AN UNSEASONABLY QUIET CONVECTIVE PATTERN TODAY. ...FL... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHERE 60S DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE WEAK...LIMITING ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. ...WESTERN STATES... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ID/MT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...INTO TX. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PECOS REGION OF TX. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 15:35:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 10:35:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505031545.j43FjUpI032461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031543 SWODY1 SPC AC 031541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CTY 20 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW 60 SSE ELY 50 SE OWY 70 NNW WMC 25 WNW SVE 40 WSW MHS 15 NNE MFR 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF 45 E RIW 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 50 E TAD DHT 35 WNW ADM 45 SE DAL 35 NW HOU 10 ESE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION TODAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SCT CONVECTION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OVER CENTRAL/WRN NM. LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ABOVE STABLE SFC LAYER...ISOLATED/SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN WEST WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. THE ONLY SVR THREAT TODAY WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEA BREEZE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN SCT CONVECTION WITH AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. ...SRN/CENTRAL FL... ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR AND SOUNDING DATA FROM 02/12Z AND 03/12Z SHOWS MODEST COOLING FROM 750 MB UP TO 200 MB OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEPER.../AROUND 7.0 DEG C/KM/. IN ADDITION STRONGER FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM 500 TO 200 MB TODAY THAN OCCURRED YESTERDAY THUS...STORM TOP VENTING IN THE UPPER LVLS AND GREATER PARCEL ACCELERATION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR. LITTLE CINH EXISTS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND GIVEN FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND MID LEVEL ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SCT STRONG/ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL...BUT MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT /SLT RISK/ WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 25-30 KTS...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER NOTED ON THE 12Z MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS. ...WRN/CENTRAL NM... RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 60/38 AT ABQ. AMPLE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE/HALES.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 19:55:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 14:55:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505032006.j43K680g012245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032002 SWODY1 SPC AC 032000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 20 SE SRQ 30 E PIE 30 NNW AGR 15 W MLB VRB 40 WNW PBI 40 SE FMY FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN FLG ELY 50 SE OWY 70 NNW WMC 25 WNW SVE 40 WSW MHS MFR 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF 45 E RIW 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 50 E TAD 35 W CSM ADM 45 SE DAL 35 NW HOU 10 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 35 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. EXPECT NRN STREAM DEAMPLIFICATION OVER NERN CONUS...AS TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION TURNS EWD AND WEAKENS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NM -- IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH SOME GEN TSTM POTENTIAL IN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE...OVER CENTRAL/WRN TX. OTHER GEN TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER LARGE PART OF WRN CONUS HIGHER TERRAIN. SFC FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH 04/12Z. FARTHER W...DEEP/SEASONALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER S-CENTRAL CONUS AND NERN MEX...E OF MOUNTAINS. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS LIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER FL PENINSULA...ALONG AND S OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN THE GULF/ATLANTIC COASTAL SEA BREEZE FRONTS. LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW POOL...WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS. AIR MASS FARTHER NW ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN FL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION. 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL AMBIENT FLOW AND SHEAR REMAIN WEAK...STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED/LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...BOTH WITH RIGHT-MOVERS AND LEFT SPLITS. A FEW OF EACH STORM TYPE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR INVOF BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES...INCLUDING RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL SE SRQ AND N FMY. EXPECT BULK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO WEAKEN AFTER ABOUT 23Z...WHEN OUTFLOW POOLS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF AREA AND DIABATIC HEATING HAS PASSED PEAK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 00:49:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 19:49:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505040059.j440xFiu005364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040057 SWODY1 SPC AC 040055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 55 N SVC BCE 35 S ENV 75 NNW SUN 45 S MSO 25 WSW HLN 45 E WEY 45 S BPI 20 SSW ALS 45 SW CAO 50 WNW CSM 20 SE FSI 10 SSE TPL MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 20 SSE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/SRN FL... TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS CNTRL AND PARTS OF SRN FL AS A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THIS PROCESS IS APT TO CONTINUE THROUGH 02-03Z WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST/HAILSTONE. BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...BUOYANCY/TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THOUGH TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO. CNTRL/SRN FL WILL REMAIN BENEATH SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWING NWD. GIVEN THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES/ SHEAR-LINES ACROSS THE REGION...A TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... MAINLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE NUMBER OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT...TSTMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL/W TX AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE WILL PROBABLY KEEP A TSTM THREAT GOING ALL NIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/W TX. MEAGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD MITIGATE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ..RACY.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 04:59:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 23:59:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505040509.j4459XPh002676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040507 SWODY1 SPC AC 040505 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 30 N MRF 20 ESE CNM 40 NE 4CR 35 NNW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 W BCE 50 WSW MLF 50 E U31 35 E LOL 15 E RNO 30 NNW NID 25 NNE SBA 30 ESE MRY 35 S UKI EKA 20 N 4BK 10 NNW ONP 20 NW OLM 10 NNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 40 NNW GTF 70 SW GGW 20 WNW ABR 30 NNW FOD 40 SSW ALO 25 ENE IRK 45 N SZL 35 SSE BIE 15 ENE HLC 25 NNW LBL 45 WSW SPS 35 W ACT 40 SSW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW AQQ 40 S AYS 30 ENE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE NERN STATES AND A NEW UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLYS BY 05/12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL FL. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS FL ON WEDNESDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AND AFFECTS OF ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE/HEATING WILL MAKE FOR AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST ON COVERAGE/LOCATION OF THE GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. SEABREEZE/RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCI FOR TSTMS...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. EVOLUTION INTO HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN THE ABOVE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE MORE CERTAIN. ...NERN CO/NWRN KS TO CNTRL NEB... LEE-TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...IN TANDEM WITH THE NRN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. INCREASE IN MOISTURE...APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE DURING PEAK HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO CNTRL NEB AFTER 21Z. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY...COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLD AT BEST WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS AND MOVE ACROSS NEB OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY SUB-SEVERE. ...NRN/CNTRL CA... UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ONSHORE CNTRL/NRN CA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL CA AND GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING EWD INTO CNTRL CA...MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF KSTO. HOWEVER...IN THE NRN VLYS WHERE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER... THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD STRONG TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE HAILSTONES APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ..RACY/LEVIT.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 11:59:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 06:59:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505041209.j44C9dV5008383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041207 SWODY1 SPC AC 041205 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE MIA 30 S FMY ...CONT... 35 SSE CTY 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 30 N MRF 20 ESE CNM 40 NE 4CR 35 NNW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 W BCE 50 WSW MLF 50 E U31 35 E LOL 15 E RNO 30 NNW NID 25 NNE SBA 30 ESE MRY 35 S UKI EKA 20 N 4BK 10 NNW ONP 20 NW OLM 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 40 NNW GTF 75 SW GGW 15 SE GDV 20 ESE ISN 40 NNW DVL 45 SE RRT 50 SSW INL 40 W BRD 40 S STC 25 S FRM 50 ENE DSM 30 WSW BRL 25 ENE MKC 15 N BIE 30 E HLC 25 SW GCK 45 WSW SPS 35 W ACT 15 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AQQ 40 NNE DHN 25 SSW ATL 30 SSE AHN 40 N SAV 35 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION TODAY..WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER TX. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND LAND/SEA INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA. INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXISTS OFF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. SEVERE THREAT INLAND WILL BE LESSENED THIS MORNING DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN YESTERDAY. BUT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO NUMEROUS SEA-BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX OVER WESTERN WY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS BY EVENING. FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS REGION WILL AID IN SOME DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON...WITH POCKETS OF MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/CO INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD CENTRAL NEB. A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY CA... NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 AT 500MB/ WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEY OF CA...LEADING TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER THIS REGION AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MLCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG. HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...SO WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 16:19:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 11:19:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505041630.j44GU2Lh022388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041626 SWODY1 SPC AC 041624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MRY 20 E SJC 55 NNW UKI 15 SSW EUG 30 SSE PDX 45 ESE YKM 55 NW 63S ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 25 ENE TCS 35 NW 4HV 35 W MLF 30 SSW P38 55 SW DRA 35 N OXR 15 W SBA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 10 SSE MCN 30 SE CAE 30 SW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RRT 30 ESE AXN 40 ESE SUX 45 W CNK 25 ENE LBL 40 W CDS SJT 10 NE CRP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA ATTM...MAINLY S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY JAX TO CTY. A FEW STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS ARE ONGOING...BUT INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT RECENTLY AS COVERAGE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND. DESPITE SUFFICIENTLY-STRONG WIND FIELD...INHIBITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NRN / CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY AS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE ERN GULF CONTINUES MOVING ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL FL. THOUGH A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW THAT OF YESTERDAY. GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS S FL ATTM...WHERE ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS INDICATED. BOUNDARY-LAYER CU FIELD IS INCREASING OVER S FL...WITH APPARENT SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS APPROACHING THE ERN FL COAST ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS S FL THAN AREAS FURTHER N...BUT SOME INCREASE IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...WILL EXPAND THE SEVERE THREAT SWD ACROSS ALL OF S FL TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #734. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS INVOF 40 F/ IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH LBF /NORTH PLATTE NEB/ SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWING DRY AIR EXTENDING TO 700 MB. THOUGH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IS INDICATED...BELIEVE THE NAM / NAMKF ARE MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH FORECASTS OF MID 40S DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FULL SUN / DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...RUC PFCS SHOWING LOW 30S DEWPOINTS AND DEEP INVERTED V PROFILES SEEM MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THUS...DESPITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BELIEVE THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MEAGER SUCH THAT ONLY MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION. SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THIS REGION ATTM. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED...SLIGHT LARGE-SCALE UVV ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY FORECAST SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD YIELD GREATER INSTABILITY...MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR HAIL / EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING / WEAK MOIST ADVECTION AND MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS. ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...WITHIN ZONE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH REGION UNDER WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ATTM. THOUGH TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE COAST. THUS -- WITH LITTLE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND WITH ANY COOLING ALOFT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 20:00:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 15:00:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505042010.j44KAdVp000692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042007 SWODY1 SPC AC 042005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CTY 35 N DAB ...CONT... 40 S MIA 15 NW EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SJC 55 NNW UKI EUG 30 SSE PDX EPH 55 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 WNW RRT AXN OTG 35 NW CNK LBL PVW SJT 25 E CRP ...CONT... ELP TCS 4HV MLF P38 DRA NID VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN MCN AGS ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MOST OF PENINSULAR FL... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NWRN MO REGION MOVES EWD TOWARD OH VALLEY. SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER MS DELTA REGION AND NWRN GULF WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS DIXIE TONIGHT...INDUCING FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN GULF. EXPECT THIS CYCLONE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA LATE THIS PERIOD INTO EARLY DAY-2. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONTAL ZONE NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FL SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS AMBIENT WAA AND SLY FLOW COMPONENT IS OFFSET BY STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LARGE PRECIP AREA ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE OVER REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS. REF WW 220 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW APCHS AND MOVES INLAND W COAST. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED BACKING OF SFC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ENLARGED BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL FL AND PERHAPS INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS OVER S FL. LIFTED PARCELS SHOULD BE NEARLY SFC BASED GIVEN DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F AND TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS. WEAKNESSES IN LOW-MIDLEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW MAY LIMIT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH COLLECTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED -- TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...TX BIG BEND TO ERN NM MOUNTAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THIS REGION...AS DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN ERODES REMAINING CINH. MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA IS MARGINAL BUT INCREASING...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 40S/50S F OVER FAR W TX AND UPPER 30S/40S OVER ERN NM PLAINS AND MESAS. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT BULK SHEAR VALUES AND WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZES SMALL. HOWEVER A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLS MAY DEVELOP GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 50-60 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOWS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...BENEATH MLCAPES 200-800 J/KG. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NARROW CORRIDOR JUST E OF MOUNTAINS WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK HAS ERODED AWAY...ALLOWING OPTIMAL INSOLATION HEATING FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. A FEW HAIL/GUSTS EVENTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SLOW/POTENTIALLY DEVIANT MOTIONS OF DISCRETE CELLS MAY AID STORM ORGANIZATION FOR BRIEF PERIODS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER DARK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 00:43:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 19:43:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505050053.j450rYKF025463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050051 SWODY1 SPC AC 050049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT TVF AXN OTG OMA RSL GCK 25 NNW EHA 45 S CVS 25 NNE CNM 10 SSE CNM 30 SE GDP 25 W FST 30 SSE BGS ABI 10 WSW MWL 30 SE DAL 20 SSE ACT 40 S BWD JCT 70 ENE P07 40 NE P07 40 SE P07 ...CONT... ELP TCS 10 ESE U17 40 N BCE MLF 40 SSE ELY U31 10 N LOL 60 NE SVE 30 S MFR EUG SLE 15 ENE OLM 35 ENE CLM ...CONT... 35 NNE 4OM PUW 60 NNW SUN JAC RIW 10 NW LAR CYS 15 N AIA RAP 4BQ SDY 70 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PNS MCN AGS 20 SE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FLORIDA... MUCH OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. MOST PROMINENT COLD POOL ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...AND AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC EAST OF JACKSONVILLE AND MELBOURNE. THIS IS SOUTH OF WEAK/WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONT AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT... ADVECTION/ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF EASTERN GULF BOUNDARY LAYER ...WITH 70F DEW POINTS...ABOVE COLD POOLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION OVER INLAND AREAS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEVERE RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...WITH STRONGER CELLS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO PLAINS... DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MOST PROMINENT FORCING FOR MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD 05/06Z. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LIKELY BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 05:47:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 00:47:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505050557.j455vgmH026517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050555 SWODY1 SPC AC 050554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW FMY AGR 35 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO 35 WSW RBL 25 SSW MFR 20 NW EUG 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 20 NE 3HT 10 S GCC 10 E PIR 30 W RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 S CWA 15 W LWD 20 SSW EMP 15 NNW OKC 30 ESE SPS 15 ENE SEP 55 S BWD 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 W ELP 40 W TCS 35 WNW FLG 20 NE TRM 35 NNW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 70 SW SEM 30 SW HSV 45 SSE BNA 30 SSW CSV 35 ENE RMG 40 N AGS 15 S SOP 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE SRN FL PEN... MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S. WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LEAD TROUGH MAY SHARPEN SOME AS IT CONTINUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN GULF STATES. IN ITS WAKE...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS BROAD UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. FARTHER NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL REMAIN LESS AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER... AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/YUKON/EASTERN ALASKA...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ...FLORIDA... INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK...WHEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD COMMENCE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER... MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN PENINSULA AREAS. CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA BY MID DAY COULD PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ...WHILE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY EVOLVES ON EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...SOUTH OF MELBOURNE INTO THE MIAMI AREA. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER STORMS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ...PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO HAMPER RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ALONG/WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS...BUT CAPPING WILL INCREASE BENEATH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAIRLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WHEN A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOWER TO END AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE WEAKENED BY TAIL END OF DIGGING CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WHILE LOW MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIMIT CAPE AND STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS...ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...CALIFORNIA... EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH COOLING ALOFT IS NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...MAY COMPENSATE SUFFICIENTLY FOR CAPE TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHEAR PROFILES COULD BECOME LOCALLY SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 12:42:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 07:42:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505051252.j45CquN8011210@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051250 SWODY1 SPC AC 051249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MIA AGR 45 NW ORL 20 NE GNV 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 40 W TCS 35 WNW FLG 20 NE TRM 35 NNW SAN ...CONT... 35 NW SFO 35 WSW RBL 25 SSW MFR 20 NW EUG 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 20 NE 3HT 10 S GCC 10 E PIR 30 W RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 S CWA 15 W LWD 20 SSW EMP 15 NNW OKC 30 ESE SPS 15 ENE SEP 55 S BWD 20 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 70 SW SEM 30 SW HSV 45 SSE BNA 30 SSW CSV 35 ENE RMG 40 N AGS 15 S SOP 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO ID. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING INTO CA. SEVERAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH PATTERN REMAINS RATHER COOL/STABLE FOR EARLY MAY. ...FL/GA... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J/KG. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING NORTH FL AND SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RISK OF HAIL. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FOCUS STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SD/MN... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE 50S ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SD/MN. MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND MODEST INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NM AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTHERN CA... UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO CA TODAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AFFECTING THE AREA. POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF HAIL. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 15:47:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 10:47:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505051557.j45Fvc9O003720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051552 SWODY1 SPC AC 051551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE EYW AGR 45 NW ORL 20 NE GNV 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 70 NE SAD 20 N PRC 55 WSW EED 10 E LGB ...CONT... 30 S MRY 35 WSW RBL 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 15 NW SHR 65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 25 NW ABR 30 W RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 10 SSW OSH 40 NE DSM 35 W BIE 40 SW RSL 35 NNE CDS 35 W MWL 25 ENE BWD 35 NE JCT 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PNS 70 SW SEM 30 SW HSV 30 N JKL 25 W BKW 20 SW HKY 25 SW RDU 30 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... ONE SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER ENTERS SWRN STATES. IN NRN STREAM A WEAK S/WV TRACKS EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE MUCH OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NERN STATES. SLY RETURN FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH IS GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE NWD THRU THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO REFORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW NWRN MN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL SD MOVES SLOWLY EWD TODAY SUPPORTED BY ASSOCIATED S/WV TROUGH. ...FL PENINSULA... INITIALLY WIND PROFILES AND LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF PENINSULA TODAY. HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ERN GULF REDUCING INSOLATION...PARTICULARLY W COAST...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO MORE WLY AS SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF NERN FL COAST...PRIMARY AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY SHOULD BE ERN PENINSULA. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND CONVERGENCE PARTICULARLY ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT...A FEW ROTATING STORMS ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUCH AS THE ONE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS THIS AM. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MOSTLY LESS THAN 50F...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT...WILL INITIATE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NRN MN INTO ERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...PRECLUDING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT ATTM. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS OF SWRN TX TO MID 50S IN THE PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SWRN TX. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT ARE GENERALLY WEAK...THE 8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD INTENSIFY SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OF WRN TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ...CA... EXAMINING MORNING SOUNDINGS AND 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SEE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR OTHER THAN WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF TROUGH MOVING INLAND TODAY. AIR ALOFT IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LACK OF GOOD SURFACE HEATING PRECLUDES A CONCERN FOR SEVERE. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 19:58:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 14:58:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505052008.j45K87x5023299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052003 SWODY1 SPC AC 052002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ANJ 10 SSW OSH 40 NE DSM 35 W BIE 40 SW RSL 35 NNE CDS 35 W MWL 25 ENE BWD 35 NE JCT 25 NW DRT ...CONT... 25 SE DUG 70 NE SAD 20 N PRC 45 WNW BLH SAN ...CONT... 30 S MRY 35 WSW RBL 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 15 NW SHR 65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 25 NW ABR 30 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PNS 70 SW SEM 30 SW HSV 30 N JKL 25 W BKW 20 SW HKY 25 SW RDU 30 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SD/NEB... TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF MN FROM SE OF ELO TO N OF RWF. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS INITIALLY ELEVATED...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY-LAYER DEEPENING IS LIKELY ALLOWING MANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AND WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NWRN/NRN MN SWWD THROUGH NERN SD...AND AS FAR SW AS WRN/SWRN NEB. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL. ...FL... RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR/LDS DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGEST TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NE OF JAX AND RESULTANT VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN FL COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY TO REMOVE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ...NM/FAR WRN TX... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NM/WRN TX. WHILE MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NM. PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MAY ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN INTO CNTRL NM THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING OR DEVELOPING INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/STRONG WINDS...PRIOR TO WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT. ...CA... TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM E OF FAT TO SE OF BFL. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED NATURE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER /PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 00:46:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 19:46:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505060056.j460u6OA028306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060053 SWODY1 SPC AC 060051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW FCA 30 WSW SHR 65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 30 NE BKX 15 W INL ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 10 SSW OSH 50 NNW OTM 30 WSW BIE 25 WNW GCK 25 NNW AMA 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 10 WSW ELP 55 WNW TCS 20 N PRC 60 E DAG 10 WSW LGB ...CONT... 45 WNW PRB 35 SW MFR 45 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 65 SE MEI 0A8 50 W SAV 25 SSE FLO 40 SE ECG ...CONT... 25 N PBI SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ID... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON THE NORTH OF SIDE OF GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC LOW WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS TSTMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM 00Z BOI SOUNDING/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE TREASURE/SNAKE RIVER VALLEYS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND SVR THREAT END BY 04Z. ...MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB/NRN IA... AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER WILL SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL/ECENTRAL MN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN MN SWWD INTO SERN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS INTO NRN IA WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. INCREASING CINH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL AID IN SVR THREAT DIMINISHING AROUND 03Z. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 06Z/ ACROSS SCENTRAL SD...NCENTRAL/NERN NEB ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT IMPINGES ON MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. MARGINAL CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS AND MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG WILL LIMIT THE THREAT TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AT MOST IN THIS AREA. ...SCENTRAL/SERN NM...FAR WRN TX... SEVERAL STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE E/SE OF ELP WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL NM AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BECOME POSE A SHORT LIVED SVR THREAT ACROSS THE GUADALUPE...SACRAMENTO MTNS AND ADJACENT PECOS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 03Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS. CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO A WEAK MCS OVERNIGHT WHILE MOVING INTO WRN TX...BUT SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE.... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE INCREASING CINH AIDS IN STORM DEMISE BY 03Z. ...CENTRAL COASTAL RANGE/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OF CA... LIMITED REMAINING HEATING AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/RAINFALL WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DESPITE COLD MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. ..CROSBIE/GOSS.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 05:39:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 00:39:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505060549.j465nPSF019931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060546 SWODY1 SPC AC 060545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLD 25 NNW AIA 15 S RAP 15 S REJ 35 E Y22 35 ENE ABR OTG 30 WSW FOD 50 NW LWD 25 NNE FNB 35 SE HSI 50 WSW HLC 40 SW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 15 S CNM 20 NNE ROW 45 NE 4CR 15 S ABQ 75 E SOW 60 WNW SAD 75 SW PRC 30 NW LAS 45 NNE TPH 45 E BNO 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 SW FAR 30 NNW RST 30 W RHI 20 WSW CMX ...CONT... 25 ENE TOL 20 NE FWA 15 NE CMI 40 SW UIN 25 SSW OJC 25 WNW END 20 SW LTS 25 SSE SJT 35 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE FMY 10 N VRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ND SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...ALONG LEE TROUGH / DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW. ...NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS... NAM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECAST AGAIN SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE...WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS DEPICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE IS FORECAST ABOVE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT FORECAST ACROSS SD IN REGION OF SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED ATTM SHOULD RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING / LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH THIS SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ATTM ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF SD / NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD FUEL MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MO VALLEY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... DRYLINE / LEE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS ERN NM / FAR W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY FOCUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COMBINED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN NARROW AXIS OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT FROM SERN CO / SWRN KS SWD TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF W TX. ANY STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 12:53:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 07:53:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505061303.j46D3F5a021476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061300 SWODY1 SPC AC 061259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE LIC 25 NW CYS 30 NNE CPR 35 NW GCC 20 NE Y22 35 ENE ABR OTG 30 WSW FOD 50 NW LWD 25 NNE FNB 35 SE HSI 50 WSW HLC 20 ESE LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 35 ESE FWA 15 WNW DNV 40 SW UIN 55 SW SZL TUL 25 S ADM 15 ESE BWD 50 SE DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 10 SSE ROW 50 ENE 4CR 45 SSW LVS 40 SW GNT 50 SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 55 N DVL 25 W FAR 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 40 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD EJECT NE INTO SW WY/WRN CO BY 12Z SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL E PACIFIC SPEED MAXIMA DROP SE INTO NRN BAJA/NRN SONORA. AT LWR LEVELS...DEEP SSWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH JUST E OF THE RCKYS FROM MT TO NM...WITH LEE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER SE MT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE. FARTHER E...BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE E INTO THE UPR MS VLY SHOULD LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT/ EARLY SATURDAY. ...WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS... LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS FACTOR...COUPLED WITH RATHER MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...SHOULD DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. OTHER ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY ELEVATED...MAY CONTINUE TO FORM INVOF STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH. BUT RATHER MODEST /25-30 KT/ MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW WILL YIELD DEEP SHEAR THAT...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MEAN MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD ...HOWEVER...DEVELOP TO SUPPORT CELLS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER IMPULSE SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE HIGH PLNS WILL QUICKLY ORIENT INTO N/S LINES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD...HOWEVER... STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP INTO ONE OR TWO STRONG CLUSTERS LATER IN THE EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SLOWLY INCREASE. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NEB AND SD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT E TOWARD THE MO VLY...WITH AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. ...SRN HI PLNS... DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH MAY BE THE FOCUS OF ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER ERN NM/FAR W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CAP SHOULD KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLATED. DEEP SHEAR WILL... HOWEVER...BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N...HAVING A GREATER DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. COUPLED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE...ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 16:15:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 11:15:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505061625.j46GPULF008229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061621 SWODY1 SPC AC 061619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E ROW 30 S DEN 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW RWF 30 E FOD 50 NW LWD 20 SE BIE 45 SSW EAR 45 ENE HOB 40 E ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 40 N DAY 15 N HUF 45 NE COU 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50 WSW COT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 10 SSE ROW 50 ENE 4CR 45 SSW LVS 40 SW GNT 50 SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 20 W RRT 30 S BJI 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 40 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS... 12Z MODELS STILL CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT SPREADING ENEWD AWAY FROM THE CO/WY MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES LIKELY KEEPING DRY LINE INTO NERN NM/CENTRAL CO/ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE ERN SLOPES SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE MLCAPE FROM NM NWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL CO/WY MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NRN NM. SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STEER THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN WY/WRN SD SWD INTO NERN NM...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY INGEST GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...THOUGH PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO CLUSTERS/LINES. STORMS MAY REMAIN MORE DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR FARTHER SOUTH INTO SERN CO/NERN NM/WRN OK-TX PANHANDLES WHERE ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE ISOLATED. APPEARS MORE CONCENTRATED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB/WRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO/NWRN KS/WRN SD AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM IA/NERN NEB NWWD INTO WRN SD...AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM STALLS AND THEN BEGINS LIFTING NEWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE TODAY...CAPPING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UNDER PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. 12Z RUC AND ETA DO INDEED DEVELOP STORMS OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA TOWARDS 00Z. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST...THOUGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER DARK ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SLY LLJ WHICH INCREASES ACROSS WRN KS/WRN NEB. POSSIBLE MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH SEPARATE MCS POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AS LLJ VEERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MI/NRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI TODAY. THOUGH MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER / I.E. MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG /...DEEP ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONG SHEAR WHICH MAY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... LARGE AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TODAY. STORMS MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN AZ/UT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ENSUING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 19:52:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 14:52:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505062002.j46K25LX001503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061956 SWODY1 SPC AC 061955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE GDP 30 S DEN 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW RWF 30 E FOD 50 NW LWD 20 SE BIE 10 N CNK 30 WSW RSL 40 WSW GAG 55 ENE FST 30 E MRF 50 SE GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 40 N DAY 15 N HUF 45 NE COU 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50 WSW COT ...CONT... 70 SW MRF 30 ESE ALM 40 SSW 4CR 30 NNW ONM 60 SSW GNT 50 SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 20 W RRT 30 S BJI 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SD...NEB AND WRN IA... ...HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SD/NEB/KS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WHERE TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE. A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM FEATURE IS ALSO EVIDENT FROM ERN CO SWD INTO FAR ERN NM/WRN TX. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SECONDARY FEATURE IS RESULTING IN SURFACE LOW FORMATION N OF GLD...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR MAF. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION E OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO NEB. WITH APPROACH OF AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE E ALONG BULGING DRYLINE OVER NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB...AS WELL AS SERVE TO ENHANCE ONGOING STORMS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SRN SD INTO NWRN IA. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING WITH TIME THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FARTHER TO THE E ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD/NEB/KS. THUS...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND RESULTANT HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT EWD ACROSS SD AND NEB ALONG 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS. WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH SRN EXTENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES/STABILIZES. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 744. ...GREAT BASIN... ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE N/NE OF AFOREMENTIONED AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN/WRN UT TODAY. DOWNSTREAM REGION OF SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EWD/NEWD MOVEMENT AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THOUGH AIR MASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL WIND/HAIL WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ...GREAT LAKES... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS FIELD/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL UP OF MI SWWD INTO NRN WI. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND STEEPING LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS REGION IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI. RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IN ADDITION TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINAL HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 745. ..MEAD.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 7 00:44:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 19:44:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505070054.j470sM0i031989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070052 SWODY1 SPC AC 070050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PUB 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 W ATY 15 N OTG 30 E FOD 50 NW LWD 30 NW FNB 35 WSW BIE 40 N RSL 50 E DHT 10 NW FST 25 ESE GDP 35 SSW PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 20 NW GDP 15 ESE 4CR 30 SSE SAF 30 W GNT 30 SE PRC 15 ENE EED 55 W DRA 30 NW OWY 35 SE BNO 30 S PDT 45 SSE EPH 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 45 W RRT 50 N AXN 30 S MSP 35 W LNR 25 ESE OSH 50 ENE PLN ...CONT... 35 NW CLE 30 ENE DAY 30 SE IND 35 SW UIN 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50 WSW COT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS SWD ACROSS ERN NM / W TX... ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ATTM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN MT / SWRN ND SWD TO FAR W TX...INVOF LEE TROUGH / AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ATTM. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD...COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED CONVECTIVE THREAT. STORMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH A SLOW DECREASING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS. IN THE MEAN TIME...1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. FURTHER N ACROSS NWRN KS INTO NEB / SD -- AND TO A LESSER DEGREE INTO ERN MT / ND...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AIDED BY INCREASING QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL JET / APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL ATTM...SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN PLACE ALONG / S OF WARM FRONT FROM SERN MT ACROSS SD / NERN NEB INTO IA SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO PARTS OF IA WITH TIME...AS NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... SCATTERED STRONG / A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN LK MI / NRN IL ATTM...WITHIN ZONE OF WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ON SRN FRINGES OF ONTARIO VORT MAX. STORMS ARE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY ATTM. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND WEAKER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL / WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 05:04:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 00:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505080514.j485ESOR013807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080512 SWODY1 SPC AC 080510 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 55 N EAU OTM 20 E SGF 15 SSW HOT 25 NNE SHV 50 ENE LFK 25 SSE VCT 40 S LRD ...CONT... 45 ESE P07 50 WSW ABI 45 ENE GAG 30 NNW RSL 40 NE BUB 15 NNW 9V9 40 SE BIS 40 NNW JMS 20 NE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ANJ 40 NE MKG 25 SSW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 35 ESE GWO 25 SW HEZ 7R4 ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 55 E AMA 25 N LBL 30 SE TAD 50 ENE DRO 40 NNE CNY 55 NNW PUC 30 SW ENV 40 WNW ELY 45 NNE TPH 30 NNW BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 25 SW SCK 40 WSW SAC 60 NNW UKI ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 10 NNE HLN 20 SE BZN 25 S COD 35 ESE RWL 20 NNW CYS 50 W CDR 45 ESE 4BQ 10 SSE GDV 75 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN SWD TO TX... ...SYNOPSIS... UNUSUAL / HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE W COAST...ONE VACATING THE E COAST...AND A LOW / SHARP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH / FRONT WILL EXIST. STRONG RIDGING AT MID LEVELS -- BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM -- SHOULD CONFINE CONVECTIVE THREAT PRIMARILY TO THE PLAINS / MS VALLEY REGION. FURTHER W...A CONVECTIVE / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW APPROACHING THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL QUARTER OF THE CONUS FROM MN / THE ERN DAKOTAS TO TX... COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF TX -- AS WELL AS STORMS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS -- WILL COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND SEVERITY OF STORMS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF STORMS OVER TX -- DEVELOPING ATTM IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. NAM SHOWS THAT LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL EVOLVE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH MOVES INTO ERN / SERN TX BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL TX DESTABILIZES AGAIN AHEAD OF UPPER FEATURE...ALLOWING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THOUGH NAMKF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN OVERALL SCENARIO...IT MOVES INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN / NERN TX. THIS RESULTS IN NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- ON SRN PERIPHERY OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MEANWHILE...GFS DEVELOPS A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE DAY -- AS OPPOSED TO THE EPISODIC SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE TWO NAM RUNS. OVERALL...UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL TX BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THEREFORE -- AREAS AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION / CLOUD COVER WHICH RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATELY-STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL WIND MAX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL / S TX ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MAXIMUM IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL TX...THOUGH DETAILS IN TIMING / LOCATION AS WELL AS INTENSITY OF SEVERE THREAT WILL OBVIOUSLY DEPEND UPON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS / MO VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH / BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME. GENERALLY WEAKER / MORE SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT LESSER SEVERE THREAT AS COMPARED TO TX. NONETHELESS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER FEATURE. OVERNIGHT...THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE MID / UPPER MS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PAC NW... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WA / ORE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW APPROACHING W COAST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT / SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% HAIL / WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 12:47:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 07:47:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505081257.j48Cv2Jo014524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081254 SWODY1 SPC AC 081253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 20 WSW SJT 40 ENE ABI 25 SSW LTS 50 ENE GAG 35 SW P28 30 SSE HSI 60 SSE 9V9 30 NE PHP 40 ESE Y22 50 NW JMS 20 NE RRT ...CONT... 20 N ELO 55 N EAU OTM 35 E SGF 55 SW JBR 10 SSW MLU BPT 25 SW PSX 40 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ANJ 40 NE MKG 25 SSW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 30 E HEZ 15 SSE 7R4 ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 55 E AMA 25 N LBL 30 SE TAD 50 ENE DRO 40 NNE CNY 55 NNW PUC 30 SW ENV 40 WNW ELY 45 NNE TPH 30 NNW BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 25 SW SCK 40 WSW SAC 60 NNW UKI ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 10 NNE HLN 20 SE BZN 25 S COD 35 ESE RWL 20 NNW CYS 35 NNW BFF 25 WNW REJ 25 NW DIK 70 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PLNS AND LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN BLOCKY BUT SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF BOTH THE PACIFIC NW AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SW TX SHOULD EJECT E/NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THAT STATE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ...REACHING THE TXK AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. FARTHER N...WRN SD UPR LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS E INTO THE HI PLNS. AT THE SURFACE...WRN SD LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL SETTLE GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS S AND E OF THE LOW. ...CNTRL/E TX INTO WRN ARK/LA... SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MCV/ROTATING CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E/ENE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/...SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING UPR LEVEL WIND FIELD/ DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM SW TX IMPULSE. FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS COULD YIELD HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO DESPITE DOMINANT MCS CONVECTIVE MODE E/NE INTO PARTS OF LA/AR. ADDITIONAL STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT INVOF TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS S CNTRL TX. BUT WITH MAIN LLJ LIKELY TO SHIFT NEWD INTO LA/AR...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...OK/KS TO NRN PLNS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT NRN PLNS UPR LOW HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED OVER THE PAST 12 HRS...WITH AN APPARENT TROUGH/LOBE OF ASCENT EXTENDING S INTO ERN CO. THIS LOBE SHOULD ROTATE E ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS TODAY...AND DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SURGE E/SE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB AND KS...AND NW OK. AT THE SAME TIME... SEGMENTED DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE WILL MOVE INTO ERN NEB/KS. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE BOUNDARIES...MODERATE SURFACE HEATING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT AS VORT LOBE OVERSPREADS REGION FROM ERN SD/WRN MN SWD INTO OK. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AND OF VARYING DIRECTION AS BAND OF STRONGEST UPR WINDS REMAINS CONFINED TO TX. BUT SUFFICIENT FLOW WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNTRL/NRN OK INTO ERN KS...AND FROM ERN NEB INTO PARTS OF ERN IA/SW MN. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BOOSTING SBCAPE TO AROUND 1500 IN MN TO 2500 IN OK...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. ...PAC NW... LEE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY...AHEAD OF STRONG UPR LOW APPROACHING THE ORE CST. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION... CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY. THE MEAN FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE MODEST IN DIFFLUENCE ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM OFFSHORE LOW. BUT HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 16:23:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 11:23:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505081632.j48GWvk3005789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081628 SWODY1 SPC AC 081627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPW 40 NNE OMA 25 NE OLU 25 S MHE 35 NW HON 40 ENE MBG 55 WSW JMS 15 NNW TVF 20 NW BJI 30 S AXN SPW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 55 N EAU 30 N IRK 30 ENE SZL 10 E LIT 25 WSW MLU BPT 40 S LRD ...CONT... 50 NW DRT 25 SSW LTS 35 SW P28 30 SSE HSI 25 NE 9V9 30 NNW PHP 15 N Y22 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 35 WSW GTF 15 NE LVM 25 ESE COD 35 SSW CPR 10 SSE CYS 10 SE SNY 35 S REJ 35 ESE SDY 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 75 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG 10 WNW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 40 NE MCB 45 SE HUM ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE FST 20 ENE HOB 30 WNW LBB 45 E AMA 25 WNW GAG 20 N LBL TAD 50 ENE DRO 40 NNE CNY 40 WNW PUC 35 WNW U24 20 SE ELY 40 ENE TPH 15 NE BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 20 WSW SJC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN SD/SERN ND/FAR WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... A LARGE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. BROAD ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER HAS OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 7+ C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...A NARROW AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR /MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F/...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA NWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR LOW CENTER AND SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN SD AND CENTRAL/ERN ND AROUND 18-19Z...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL SD/ERN NEB BY 21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...TORNADOES MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN SD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND BACKS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/SWRN MN/NERN NEB. GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW AND AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS MDT RISK INTO THE MID EVENING OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION. ...KS/WRN MO SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALONG DRY LINE... SEVERE RISK WILL BE PREVALENT...BUT MORE CONDITIONAL SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE TODAY. 12Z ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL OK/KS BETWEEN 21-00Z...WHILE RUC FAILS TO PRODUCE MOIST CONVECTION. PRONOUNCED DRY LINE AND ABUNDANT HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK AND WRN TX. NORTHWEST TX WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE WITH MORE CAPPING AS IT REMAINS INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVELY STABLE AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL TX...AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL OK MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THIS AIR MASS. REGARDLESS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LARGE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ANY STORM WHICH CAN INITIATE WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATING 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE BRIEF WITH STORMS MORE LIKELY CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING NNEWD AWAY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU/SERN KS THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH IT APPEARS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO ERN KS AND WRN/CENTRAL MO...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ...CENTRAL TX... E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WIT A SLOW SWD MOTION STILL OBSERVED. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX ATTM...AND SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX GIVEN FEED OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH MARITIME MOISTURE EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTH TX. MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OUT OF THIS CONVECTION AND SPREAD ESEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT. IF BOUNDARY CAN STALL AND ALLOW STORMS TO BE FED BY VERY WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR...TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE ALONG IT THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CONGEAL ALONG COMMON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEN BOW ECHO SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE NW COAST...THOUGH WEAK IMPULSES APPEAR TO BE EJECTING AND WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ORE AND NWD INTO WA TODAY. CLOUDS REMAIN EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...STORMS WHICH FORM NEAR THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 19:36:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 14:36:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505081946.j48JkkcC018262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081945 SWODY1 SPC AC 081943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SPW 45 NNE OMA 40 ESE OFK 20 NW YKN 25 NNE HON 10 E ABR 30 ENE JMS 30 NW TVF 30 E TVF 30 SE AXN 30 NNE SPW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 55 N EAU 30 N IRK 30 ENE SZL 10 E LIT 25 WSW MLU 20 SSW POE 15 SE BPT ...CONT... 40 SE P07 30 ESE CDS 35 ENE GAG 15 ENE HSI 45 WSW YKN 25 ESE 9V9 25 WNW 9V9 PHP 55 NNW PHP 40 NE REJ 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG 10 WNW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 40 NE MCB 45 SE HUM ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE FST 20 ENE HOB 30 WNW LBB 45 E AMA 25 WNW GAG 20 N LBL TAD 50 ENE DRO 25 ENE U28 35 WSW PUC 30 W U24 40 SSE ELY 40 ENE TPH 15 NE BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 20 WSW SJC ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 35 WSW GTF 15 NE LVM 25 ESE COD 35 SSW CPR 10 SSE CYS 10 SE SNY 35 S REJ 35 ESE SDY 60 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN ND/ERN SD/WRN MN INTO NERN NEB AND NWRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO TX... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM W OF ABR AND MHE SWWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB AND FINALLY INTO NWRN KS. SUBTLE MOISTURE/CLOUD DISCONTINUITY WAS ALSO IDENTIFIED FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT NE OF ABR SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL MN TO S OF MSP. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND NE OF SURFACE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL SD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SEWD ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z ABR AND OAX SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STRONGEST CAPPING CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN NEB. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND INTO WRN MN/IA WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 2500 J/KG. MODESTLY STRONG SWLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KTS LIFTING NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH A GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO MN/IA TONIGHT. ...KS/OK INTO W-CNTRL/NRN TX... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DRYLINE FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT NW OF ICT SWWD INTO SWRN OK NEAR LTS AND INTO W-CNTRL TX W OF SJT. TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG SRN PORTION OF DRYLINE OVER W-CNTRL/NWRN TX WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ERODED CAP. INSOLATION IN WAKE OF THICKER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING TO THE E HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY E OF DRYLINE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ZONE OF IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL TX SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CURRENT STORMS NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL OK. FARTHER N...IT APPEARS THAT SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH HAS STARTED TO INITIATE TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER N-CNTRL INTO CNTRL KS. INSPECTION OF REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF 25-30 KTS/ FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...SRN/SERN TX... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM N OF COT TO SW OF HOU. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. AXIS OF LOCALLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS IS RESULTING IN 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH ENVIRONMENT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY SAG SWD INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ...ERN ORE/WA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ... TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ORE INTO ID THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA COAST. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 00:58:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 19:58:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505090108.j49185gU012752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090105 SWODY1 SPC AC 090103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE RRT 40 SW EAU 30 NE LWD 35 NW FYV 50 SSW HRO 50 NNW LIT 35 N ELD 40 E DAL 30 ENE SAT 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 SSE DRT 20 SSE ABI 30 NW MWL 25 NE CSM 35 NW END 35 W HUT 40 S SUX 25 ESE ABR 30 SSW JMS 25 NE BIS 75 NNE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MFE 50 N MFE 30 SW ALI 15 SW ALI 30 E CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW FCA 20 E LVM 30 SW CPR CYS 15 W FCL 50 NE CAG 20 W BPI 45 W VEL 25 NNW U24 50 NNE ELY 40 ENE U31 40 SSE NFL 20 SE FAT 35 WSW MER 50 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE ANJ 25 NW MBL LAF 40 NW HOP 20 SSE MEM 30 SW GWO 15 NNW MCB 45 SE HUM ...CONT... 10 NW DRT 55 SSW LTS 25 WNW GAG 25 NNE LBL 25 SE HLC 20 SSW OLU 25 NNW OFK 30 NNW BBW 30 ENE CDR 10 S RAP 40 WNW Y22 70 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN TO CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS DEEP S TX... ...THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / MN SWD THROUGH TX... NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG / LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / SWRN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL / S TX...AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED N-S TROUGH / DRYLINE. AIRMASS AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH WIDESPREAD 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. THOUGH LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MANY AREAS...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE SLOWLY DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF STORM INTENSITY / SEVERITY. MUCH OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED...AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING / SLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...STRONG / SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST -- MAINLY WHERE POCKETS OF CONVECTIVELY-UNCONTAMINATED AIR REMAIN...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER VORT MAX. THOUGH TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED OVERALL...HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONGER / MORE PERSISTENT AREAS OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OTHER SPC CONVECTIVE PRODUCTS. ..GOSS.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 05:42:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 00:42:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505090552.j495qUZK030679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090550 SWODY1 SPC AC 090548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N APN 20 W DAY 25 SE SDF 10 WNW HOP 25 ESE LIT 30 ESE PGO 15 W MKO 40 S CNU 50 NNE JLN 20 SW BRL 20 SE LSE 55 NW EAU 65 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 25 NW LWT 55 SSW MLS 45 SE REJ 50 S 9V9 35 SSE YKN 15 WSW FOD 15 SSW FRM 15 WSW RWF ATY 25 WSW ABR 50 ESE BIS 35 WSW DVL 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 40 E TRI 20 SW AHN PFN ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... DRT 10 NW ABI 30 NNE CDS 35 SSE LBL 50 E LAA 45 SSE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 40 E DRA 60 W DRA 40 SSE FAT MRY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE STRONGER / CLOSED LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WRN CONUS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES...WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY -- EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS -- SHOULD WEAKEN / RETURN NWD ACROSS KS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST AHEAD OF CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM...LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY AHEAD OF WRN UPPER LOW. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE OZARKS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INVOF SURFACE LOW / VORT MAX FORECAST OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. NAM / NAMKF ALSO SUGGEST STORMS WELL E OF FRONT INTO IL / INDIANA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN IA / WRN IL. THOUGH THIS ONGOING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING / DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS...UPPER 50S / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE AMPLE HEATING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED INVOF COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS INDIANA BY AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM IL / IN NWD SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH A COMBINATION OF SMALL-SCALE LINEAR CLUSTERS AS WELL AS MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS ANTICIPATED. THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- WITH GREATEST THREAT ATTM EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF WI / WRN UPPER MI WHERE MORE FAVORABLY-BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED. FURTHER S ACROSS THE OZARKS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...WITH MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY -- UP TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION / OH VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWLY-DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...KS / OK / ERN HALF OF TX... WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS KS / INTO OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN / DRIFT BACK NWD TOWARD KS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL TX. NAM / NAMKF SHOW A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND MAIN TROUGH FURTHER E...WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG FRONT / DRYLINE MAY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THE PRIMARY QUESTION...MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. WITH AROUND 30 KT MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW EXPECTED...CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ATTM...WILL CARRY ONLY CONDITIONAL / 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORM INITIATION BECOME MORE APPARENT IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED -- MAINLY FOR THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ...ID / THE GREAT BASIN REGION... MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LOW. THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED STORMS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...MARGINAL HAIL OR A LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..GOSS.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 12:49:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 07:49:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505091259.j49Cx88w005741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091257 SWODY1 SPC AC 091255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N APN 20 ESE MIE 25 SE SDF 10 WNW HOP 15 WSW PBF 40 NW TXK 15 N MLC 40 S CNU 50 NNE JLN 20 SW BRL 20 SE LSE 25 SW DLH 80 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 10 NW ABI 30 NNE CDS 35 SSE LBL 50 E LAA 45 SSE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 40 E DRA 60 W DRA 40 SSE FAT MRY ...CONT... 80 ENE 63S 25 NW LWT 55 SSW MLS 45 SE REJ 50 S 9V9 35 SSE YKN 30 SE FOD 15 NNW MCW 20 NW MKT 30 ESE ATY 15 NNE ABR 15 E JMS 35 WNW GFK 80 N GFK ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 40 E TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR GRT LKS...MS VLY AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE LWR 48 TODAY AS LOW OFF THE NRN CA CST MOVES E INTO NW NV AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. DEAMPLIFIES. THE NRN MEMBER OF THE LATTER FEATURE...THE UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN SD...SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS MN/NRN WI AND UPR MI DURING THE PERIOD AS IT BECOMES RE-ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW NEAR TXK WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM SD SYSTEM AND SHOULD REACH NRN AL BY 12Z TUESDAY. FEATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AT LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE LOW AND POORLY DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND WEAKEN. A NEW FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SET UP ALONG A MORE W-TO-E AXIS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... COMBINATION OF MODEST SURFACE HEATING...CONVERGENCE INVOF MN SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SEGMENTS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING UPR LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN MOIST AXIS OVER MN/WI/UPR MI AND NRN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN DRIER BUT SOMEWHAT MORE STRONGLY HEATED ENVIRONMENT FARTHER E ACROSS WRN LWR MI AND PERHAPS NRN IND. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED /MLCAPE BLO 1000 J PER KG/. BUT WITH 30+ KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY INCLUDE A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR STATIONARY FRONT COULD YIELD A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THREAT IN NRN/WRN WI AND WRN UPR MI. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF UPR IMPULSE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. ...MID MS VLY/OZARKS... CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM VORT WILL DELAY ONSET SURFACE HEATING OVER PARTS OF AR/MO AND CNTRL/SRN IL TODAY. BUT WITH GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N...MODERATE INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP OVER REGION LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH 30-35 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. A FACTOR THAT MAY MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS FACT THAT REGION LIKELY BE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM VORT. ...KS/OK/ERN TX HALF OF TX... WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW IN KS WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NWD LATER TODAY...WHILE DRYLINE REMAINS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY SWD ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX. VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT ATTM OVER S TX AND THE NWRN GULF...S OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S MCS. PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ACROSS E TX ATTM. THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TODAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM VORT. BUT SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY...MAY WEAKEN STOUT CAP AND ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND LOW CLOUDS NOW PRESENT WILL DELAY SURFACE HEATING...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND A TORNADO GIVEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG AND 35+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR. PARTS OF E TX/ERN OK AND PERHAPS SE KS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...GRT BASIN... MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING E AHEAD OF OFFSHORE UPR LOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER NV...AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. BUT MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 16:15:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 11:15:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505091625.j49GPMpv006867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091618 SWODY1 SPC AC 091616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE AUS 20 NNW COT 50 ESE DRT 50 NNE DRT 20 SE ABI 25 SSE LTS 10 E FSI 10 NE ADM 15 S DUA 65 E ACT 40 ESE AUS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT 45 NW POE 15 NNE HOT 20 NE MKO 20 WNW TUL 30 W CNU SZL BRL 20 ESE LSE 15 NW EAU DLH 40 ESE ELO 90 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 S ANJ 25 WSW MBS 15 N MIE 40 SE BMG BWG 25 NNW MSL 20 W MEI 30 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... DRT 25 NNE SJT 45 NNW ABI 25 ESE CDS 25 ESE GAG 40 ENE DDC 60 N GCK 40 ESE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 40 E DRA 60 W DRA 40 SSE FAT MRY ...CONT... 50 WNW HVR 35 E LWT 45 NW PIR 20 NNW MHE 25 SE ATY 45 SW FAR 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 40 E TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL TX AND FAR SRN OK... ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWWD NRN IL... STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW NEWD MOTION INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SURGE NEWD INTO WRN WI AND ESEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NRN EXTENT OF A NARROW AXIS OF LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND OVERALL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WI AND THE U.P OF MI...STRONG ASCENT AND LIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES WITH THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS SLY LLJ INCREASES ACROSS LAKE MI AND WRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING...STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INCREASE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NERN OK/SERN KS... WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY DELAY OR INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. HOWEVER STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING MLCAPE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND QUICKLY GO SEVERE AFTER 21Z. THOUGH SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL THE MID EVENING. ...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. LEADING IMPULSE IS SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY IMPULSE IS STILL OVER AR WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD TODAY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM SHV INDICATED MID LEVELS WERE QUITE COLD /I.E. H5 TEMPS NEAR -16C/...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING...OVERALL STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE CURRENT STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN TN/MS AND SERN LA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. SHOULD SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCUR IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO SRN AR/NRN LA WITH TRAILING SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALSO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN OK/RED RIVER VALLEY SWD INTO CENTRAL TX... SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DRY LINE WILL BECOME WELL DEFINED AS STRONG MIXING OCCURS OVER WRN TX TODAY. AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND LIMITS COVERAGE/POTENTIAL ALONG DRY LINE TODAY. HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL TX WHERE RICH MARITIME AIR WILL BE FOUND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE. IN ADDITION...15-20 KT OF WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIR. GIVEN LACK OF INHIBITION...CONVERGENCE AND MIXING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH CAN INITIATE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER STEEP AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ID/WRN UT LATER TODAY. MODEST HEATING AND PRESENCE OF 45-50F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD THEREFORE SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT AND RATHER STRONG SHEAR...AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THEY SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 20:15:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 15:15:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505092025.j49KPNdI001269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092013 SWODY1 SPC AC 092011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE AUS 10 SSE HDO 40 W HDO 40 WSW JCT 15 SSE ABI 25 SW SPS 15 E SPS 40 SW ADM 25 N DAL 25 ENE ACT 30 SE AUS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 15 S ELD 60 E FSM 35 NW FSM 45 ENE TUL 30 SE CNU 25 SE SZL 15 W UIN 50 W LNR 60 NE MSP DLH 40 ESE ELO 75 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 S ANJ 30 W HTL 35 SSW SBN 20 W BMG 35 SW OWB 45 NW MSL 35 NW LUL 30 S HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... 50 WNW DRT 20 NNW SJT 40 WNW ABI 30 WSW LTS 25 ESE GAG 40 ENE DDC 60 N GCK 40 ESE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 30 NNE LAS 60 W DRA 45 ENE PRB 45 SSE MRY ...CONT... 50 WNW HVR 35 E LWT 45 NW PIR 20 NNW MHE 25 SE ATY 45 SW FAR 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 20 SSE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL TX... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY AREAS... SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY FROM 30 TO 35 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...BUT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE UNSTABLE WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM 35-40 KT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS LA AND AR...AND A VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH AR. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ERN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP FROM ERN AR SWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA AND MAY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...TX... SURFACE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING INTO TX IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SANDERSON NEWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO TO NEAR ABILENE. WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATED BEHIND THE DRYLINE...CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN TX WWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...THEN WWD WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN JUNCTION AND ABILENE...AND THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A STORM CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR LLANO. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ...NRN UT...SERN ID THROUGH WRN WY... SEE SWOMCD 794 FOR A DISCUSSION ON THIS AREA. ...CA... SEE SWOMCD 793 FOR A DISCUSSION ON THIS AREA. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 00:54:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 19:54:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505100103.j4A13xUQ009485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100101 SWODY1 SPC AC 100059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE AUS 10 ESE HDO 40 WNW HDO 10 SW JCT 30 SSE ABI 20 SSE MWL 30 N DAL 40 E DAL 60 E ACT 10 SE AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 ESE SHV 35 SE GGG 55 E CLL 30 NNE VCT 30 WSW NIR 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 SE P07 20 WSW ABI 25 W ADM 25 WNW FSM 15 NW JLN 25 SE RSL 35 N GLD 40 ESE CYS 45 WSW CAG 35 NNE MLF 25 N ELY 60 W DRA 25 NNW BFL 45 SSE MRY ...CONT... 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW BIL 55 WSW MBG 30 ESE MHE 25 NE OTG 20 SE FAR 30 E RRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 ENE LEX 45 SSE MSL 35 SSE JAN 40 E MSY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX... ...CENTRAL TX... AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST / UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. TWO LARGE SUPERCELLS -- BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT MEMBERS OF A PRIOR STORM SPLIT -- ALONG WITH A FEW DEVELOPING CELLS IN THE VICINITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THIS MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / FRONT. THOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL OR AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO -- MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS MORE ACROSS THIS REGION...OVERALL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION CONTINUES. ...WRN AND CENTRAL WY AND VICINITY... DATA SUGGESTS THAT DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE INTERIOR ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITY IN GENERAL OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A LOW-END HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY... MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL -- FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- ESPECIALLY FURTHER S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY -- SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ..GOSS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 05:58:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 00:58:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505100608.j4A680Bl021987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100605 SWODY1 SPC AC 100603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SNY 50 WNW BFF 35 WNW CDR 40 WNW VTN 15 SW OTG 40 WNW LNR 25 SSW MSN 20 N MMO 20 N SPI 25 S UIN 20 NW FNB 40 SSW IML 20 S SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 35 NNE SGF 25 ESE CNU 25 ESE PNC 35 NNE FSI 30 SSW ABI 35 WSW JCT 70 W COT ...CONT... 95 SSE MRF 35 SE CNM 35 E TCC 45 N DDC 25 WNW HLC 25 NW GLD 20 SSW DEN 30 ENE GUC 20 ESE CEZ 60 SE PGA 40 NNE IGM 15 NNW DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 55 NNE MSP 10 SE GRR 30 W HTL 20 S ESC 20 SW MQT 40 NNE CMX ...CONT... 30 N PBG 10 SSE BGM 20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 30 N DAB 20 SW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEB / IA AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGE UPPER LOW / TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN WITH TIME...DIVIDING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS AND NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF 1035 MB HIGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THIS STRENGTHENING / QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...NEB / IA AND VICINITY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW / BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF NEB AND IA NEAR AND S OF FRONT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN WY / WRN NEB JUST N OF FRONT / LOW IN ELY UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS PARTS OF NEB / IA IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST N OF FRONT. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE / SUPERCELLULAR...AS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY STORM NEAR / JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT. OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION INCREASES INVOF SHARPENING FRONT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST / SHIFT EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS. ...FAR SERN NM / TRANSPECOS / SOUTH PLAINS OF TX... THOUGH INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SREF GUIDANCE HINTS THAT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG DRYLINE...FORECAST TO MIX EWD TO A POSITION FROM JUST W OF CDS TO JUST E OF BGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR INITIATION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. ASSUMING INITIATION OCCURS...MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INITIATION. ...ERN UT / WY / WRN CO... MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS MID-LEVELS COOL / UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY EXPECTED ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE HAIL / WIND PROBABILITIES. ..GOSS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 12:27:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 07:27:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505101236.j4ACawAW004678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101234 SWODY1 SPC AC 101232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N AKO 30 WNW BFF 35 WNW CDR 40 WNW VTN 15 SW OTG 45 S RST 15 NE DBQ 10 WNW MLI 20 SW BRL 30 S IRK 40 SW FNB 40 SSW IML 30 N AKO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BGS 35 W LBB 30 NW AMA 20 S LBL 50 WSW P28 25 E CSM ABI 35 NNE SJT 25 SSW BGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 10 SSE BGM 20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 S DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 SE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG SGF 30 WSW JLN 55 WSW TUL SPS 25 W BWD 15 SSW JCT 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 SE GDP 40 N TCC 40 WSW GCK 50 S GLD 20 ESE LIC 10 SSW COS 25 S ALS 45 ESE FMN 10 E GCN 40 NNE IGM 15 NNW DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 55 NNE MSP 10 SE GRR 30 W HTL 20 S ESC 20 SW MQT 40 NNE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MUCH OF NEB AND IA INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND NRN KS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON/NRN CA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM INCLUDING ONE OVER CA EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE BAJA SPUR. MODELS SEEM UNSURE ABOUT THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE...BUT EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE IT FROM UT SEWD INTO EXTREME W TX BY 2100Z. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SERN IA AND NWRN MO AND CONTINUING AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NERN CO. SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SWRN NEB SSEWD NEAR GCK/DDC AND GAG SWWD THROUGH INK. THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS IN TWO PLACES...THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB AND THE DRYLINE LACED THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. ...NEB EWD THROUGH PARTS OF IA...NRN KS AND NRN MO... EASY TO SEE THAT THE MODELS FOCUS ON THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE 00Z AND 06Z ETA/NAM AND THE GFS ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FLOW NWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE 35-45 KT /WITH THE ETA/NAM INCREASING TO 50-55 KT TONIGHT/ ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOW OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD AS THE WRN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EWD PROVIDING WSWLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS AND PROVIDING INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AIR MASS IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE ETA CAPES REACHING 4000 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE KS/NEB BORDER BY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CO/WY WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SEVERE OVER PARTS OF WRN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR REGIME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0-3KM HELICITY SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NEB INTO IA AS MCS ROLLS EWD JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO PARTS OF WRN OK... INTERESTING SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX INTO WRN OK IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. MODELS SEEM TO DIFFER IN WHERE THIS DRYLINE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NWD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER WRN TX WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE ISODROSOTHERMS BETWEEN PVW AND LBB AS WELL AS EXTREME WRN OK. MODELS INDICATE 20-25 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW AND 35-40 KT 850 MB FLOW THROUGH THIS REGION INDICATING THAT THE ETA/NAM AND ETAKF/NAMKF HAVE GENERAL IDEA THAT BRING LOW 60 SURFACE DEW POINT NWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED GIVING MUCAPE VALUES TO 4500 J/KG...BUT WITH THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING 25 TO 45 KT...MLCAPES SHOULD BE 3000-4000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/JUST E OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 30-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW GLANCES BY THE REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORMS CAN PROPAGATE OFF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND MOVE INTO WRN OK. HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS ACTIVITY WILL GO IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ..MCCARTHY/GUYER.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 16:25:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 11:25:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505101635.j4AGZEOf015673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101630 SWODY1 SPC AC 101628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SUX 15 SSW MCW 40 W CID 25 SW DSM 10 E LNK 25 NNE GRI 30 WNW OFK 30 NNW SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CNM 40 SSW CVS 25 SE DHT 20 S LBL 50 WSW P28 20 ENE CSM 30 SSE BGS 25 S INK 30 ENE CNM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CHA 25 W HKY 35 W SOP 35 SSW FLO 10 SSW SAV 10 SE AYS 20 SSW VLD 15 ENE PFN 55 NNE MOB 25 WNW MEI 20 W CBM 25 N BHM 25 NE CHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE IML 20 NW IML 50 SW MHN 15 SE ANW 10 SSW FRM 20 E VOK 20 NW MKE 20 S CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 WNW FNB 25 ESE MCK 15 SE IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 20 SSE ROW 45 NNE CAO 15 W TAD 60 WSW FMN 20 NNW LAS 60 SSW DRA 20 S NID 45 SE FAT 30 ESE SCK 25 SW TVL 20 E RNO 70 WNW WMC 40 NNE BOI 20 WSW BTM 15 ESE MLS 50 NNW ABR 25 NNE STC 40 WNW CWA 15 SSW OSH 20 E MKE 10 NNE GRR 15 NE MBS ...CONT... 20 NNW PBG 45 N MSV 45 S RIC 10 ESE ILM ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 45 N PIE ...CONT... 40 W BVE 25 SSE GWO 30 W MKL 35 NNE PAH 20 SW HUF 15 ESE CMI 30 SSE PIA 20 NNW UIN 45 S P35 25 E EMP 25 W PNC 30 NNE FSI 30 SW BWD 20 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB INTO IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB INTO SRN WI/NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN IA WSWWD ACROSS SRN NEB THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN STALLED...IF NOT LIFT A BIT NWD OVER ERN NEB AND IA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS SEEMS REASONABLE ACROSS WARM SECTOR...SUGGESTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAKENING OF CAP AND CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z-00Z ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT. EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SLY LLJ INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA BY LATE TODAY WOULD SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF FRONT AND 40+ KT ALONG AND NORTH SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ANY STORM WHICH CAN ROOT NEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EVENING WHICH COULD BE QUITE STRONG. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING AS 50+ KT LLJ DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL/ERN NEB EWD ACROSS MUCH OF IA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. IF STORMS ROOT NEAR THE FRONT THEN A BOW ECHO SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE EWD ACROSS IA AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN WI/NRN IL LATE TONIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS A SEVERE MCS WITH AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT ALONG NOSE OF VEERING LLJ. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SLGT RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS AREA WITH 12Z MODELS BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE IN ERODING SUBSTANTIAL COOL/STABLE AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALMOST ALL WRN NEB AND ERN WY. GIVEN EXTENT OF STRATUS AND STRENGTH OF ENELY SFC WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RECOVERY /IF ANY/ WILL OCCUR NORTH OF CURRENT FRONT LOCATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN WY/NRN CO MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT IS MORE LIKELY EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT NEARER MOIST AXIS WHERE STRONGER HEATING AND SLY LLJ INCREASE LATER TODAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE CENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO FAR SWRN TX BY LATE TODAY. ETA AND ETAKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED BY 21Z EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK AND INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING AND CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP. STRONG MIXING EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND WILL LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXTREME INSTABILITY WARRANTS MENTION OF VERY LARGE HAIL. BRIEF TORNADO WINDOW MAY INCREASE NEAR SUNSET...JUST PRIOR TO DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...AS MODELS INCREASE SLY LLJ AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH BETWEEN 00-03Z. ...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ILL-DEFINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP OVER A LARGE AREA WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AOB -14C AT MOB/TAE/FFC. GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INHIBITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE AREA. PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEARER THE LOW CENTER MOVING OVER NRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR...YET STILL SUPPORTIVE OF...MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 20:15:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 15:15:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505102025.j4AKP03A032538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102012 SWODY1 SPC AC 102010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SUX 15 SSW MCW 40 W CID 25 SW DSM 10 E LNK 25 NNE GRI 30 WNW OFK 30 NNW SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CDS 35 SE BGS 40 ESE FST 15 WNW MRF 35 ESE GDP 10 ESE CNM 60 N HOB 25 SE DHT 15 SSW LBL 45 WSW P28 30 ESE CSM 60 SE CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HLC 10 SSE GLD 30 ESE LIC 35 ENE DEN 50 NW AKO 25 SW MHN 45 ENE ANW 25 E FSD 20 E VOK 20 NW MKE 20 S CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 NW FNB 35 NNW HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PNS 40 ESE LUL 25 NNW MEI 25 W CBM 50 ENE CBM 25 NE GAD 40 E RMG 55 NW AND 30 NW HKY 45 W GSO 25 SSE FAY 35 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 NE SSI 35 WSW JAX 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BVE 25 SSE GWO 30 W MKL 35 NNE PAH 20 SW HUF 15 ESE CMI 30 SSE PIA 20 NNW UIN 45 S P35 25 E EMP 25 W PNC 30 NNE FSI 30 SW BWD 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 50 WSW MRF 20 SSE ROW 50 N CAO 15 W TAD 60 WSW FMN 20 NNW LAS 60 SSW DRA 20 S NID 45 SE FAT 30 ESE SCK 25 SW TVL 20 E RNO 70 WNW WMC 40 NNE BOI 20 WSW BTM 15 ESE MLS 50 NNW ABR 25 NNE STC 50 WNW AUW 30 NE GRB 35 S MBL 10 NNE GRR 15 NE MBS ...CONT... 20 NNW PBG 45 N MSV 50 WSW ORF 30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 45 N PIE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO/NEB INTO SRN WI/NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH... ...NERN CO ACROSS NEB TO IA AND SWRN GREAT LAKES... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WAS RETREATING NWD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND SWRN IA...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL. ADDITONAL CU DEVELOPMENT WAS LOCATED ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS THE STRONGEST. STRONG CAP PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SERN NEB COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP OVER THIS REGION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...THEN THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 35-50 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ WILL BE LIKELY WITH SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS IS LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/ERN NEB SPREADING EWD INTO IA AND POTENTIALLY SRN WI/NRN IL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREATS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER NERN CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... VIS IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED CU/TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS W CENTRAL TX TO NORTHWEST OF CDS...AND ALSO OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED DECREASING MLCIN VALUES WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE DRY LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W TX ATTM...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT EXPECTED TO AID IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 35-40 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PER TCU AND WHITE SANDS WIND PROFILER DATA SPREADING NEWD ATOP S/SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG/E OF DRY LINE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE WITHIN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS A SSELY LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TX FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET. ...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -16C AT 500 MB PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/ WITH MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF AL EWD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONTINUED PULSE TYPE STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN GA INTO SC AND SRN NC. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 01:05:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 20:05:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505110115.j4B1FKLa029429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110111 SWODY1 SPC AC 110109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BUB 25 SE SUX 30 SSW FOD 15 NNW DSM 30 SSE DSM 15 N LWD LNK 40 N HLC 35 ENE MCK 30 ESE BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW HLC 10 SSE GLD 35 NNE COS 10 E 4FC 25 N LAR 55 SW MHN 50 WNW OFK 30 W SPW 35 SSE LSE 25 W MKE 20 S CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 NW FNB 25 NNW HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 35 SE MRF 30 W INK 40 S CVS 35 SSE DHT 20 SSW LBL 30 SSE DDC 25 NNW P28 25 ENE P28 35 SE P28 50 NE CSM 55 SSE CDS 35 E BGS 70 ENE P07 40 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EFK 20 N PHL 30 W RIC 15 SSE ROA 25 WSW RDU 30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 15 S SSI 35 SE VLD 25 S MAI 35 WNW PNS 40 NE MOB 60 NE MOB 25 NNE VLD 35 WNW AYS 35 NNE MGM 55 WNW CHA 40 ESE BWG 20 NW HTS 15 NE PIT 35 NNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 15 WSW CNM 70 SW TCC 20 ESE RTN LHX 20 WNW COS 25 E 4BL 60 SSE PGA 25 S LAS 35 WSW TPH 25 SW TVL 45 NNE SAC 20 W SVE 40 NW SUN 25 NNW MQM 25 N SHR 55 N DGW 30 NNE CDR 9V9 20 NE ATY 25 WNW MSP 20 N OSH 20 WSW GRR 40 NE DAY 30 NNW SDF 35 NE ALN 20 WSW UIN 45 S P35 20 ENE EMP 25 W PNC 20 NNW FSI 35 NNW JCT 45 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NEB / SWRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO / SERN WY ENEWD INTO FAR SRN WI / NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX BIG BEND NNEWD INTO WRN OK / S CENTRAL KS... ...NERN CO / SERN WY ENEWD INTO FAR SERN WI / NRN IL... THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO / SERN WY...WHILE MORE ISOLATED / LARGE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL NEB EWD INTO WRN IA. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND 35 TO 40 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SLY / SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ATTM. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF NEB INTO SWRN IA ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE GREATEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE / LOW-LEVEL HELICITY EXISTS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY INTO THIS REGION. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN MCS WHICH MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN NEB / IA...AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN IL LATE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ...SERN NM / TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX NNEWD INTO WRN OK / SRN KS... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM THE BIG BEND / TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX NNEWD INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...AIDED BY SELY INFLUX OF HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR /40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS/...EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN TROUGH. ...GA / SC AND VICINITY... LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION -- WHICH DEVELOPED INVOF UPPER LOW -- TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. IN THE MEAN TIME...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS / STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 06:04:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 01:04:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505110614.j4B6EK7K032439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110610 SWODY1 SPC AC 110608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE STJ 10 S FLV 35 SSE RSL 40 ENE DDC 25 SSW DDC 30 SW GCK 35 SW MCK 30 SSW LBF 15 S EAR BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLD 50 NW GLD 25 SSW SNY 35 WNW BUB 10 WNW SUX 15 NW RFD 35 WSW CLE 20 NW PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 W HTS BMG 35 NNE SZL 35 SW EMP 20 SE CSM 40 NW ABI 50 S LBB GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PNS 40 SSW GWO 45 WSW MEM 20 ESE POF 20 NE VIH 45 SSE OJC 45 NE OKC 50 WNW MWL 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 85 S MRF 50 NNW HOB 20 WNW EHA 20 NW LAA 50 W COS 10 SW DRO 40 W U17 50 W MLF 50 SSW ENV 30 S SUN 30 SSE MQM 10 SSW WRL 55 S GCC 45 S Y22 35 ESE MKT 80 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEB / NRN AND WRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW / TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME...WITH MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- FORECAST OVER ERN CO / WRN KS THROUGH THE DAY -- SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY -- WHICH WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED BY PERSISTENT / ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NEB -- SHOULD REMAIN INVOF THE KS / NEB BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD AGAIN MIX EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER E...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND / SWD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE ERN EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE FRONT MARKING THE SEWD EXTENT OF COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 1040 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES / WRN OK... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB / IA IN REGION OF WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SHARP SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY...AS AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARY BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW S OF BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG FROM THE S...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR LOW OR ALONG ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WARM FRONT DRYLINE WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS WRN KS AND VICINITY...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED. WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS INITIALLY. AS THESE STORMS SHIFT NEWD AND ENCOUNTER GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE. TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKEWISE BE GREATER WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THEN SHIFT EWD ALONG OR ENEWD ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT. OVERALL HOWEVER...WITH FRONT LIKELY BEING REINFORCED WITH COOL / STABLE AIR BY ONGOING CONVECTION N OF FRONT...A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST. OTHER / MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS WRN OK / WRN N TX. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...FLOW WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS / LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. STORMS / ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ACROSS KS AND PERHAPS INTO NRN MO / IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MIDWEST / OH VALLEY REGION... CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW EVOLVING OVER IA MAY BE MOVING ACROSS IL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS -- THE MID / UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE REMAINING MORE STATIONARY FURTHER WWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. AS AIRMASS ALONG / S OF BOUNDARY BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF IL MAY BE SUSTAINED AS IS SHIFTS EWD / ESEWD INVOF BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL / SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY EXIST SHOULD AN MCS INDEED SURVIVE THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ONGOING MCS...ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY STILL POSE A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ...FL... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SSEWD ACROSS GA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE ERN FL COAST THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH WEAKLY-ENHANCED MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FL...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL / WIND EVENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 12:15:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 07:15:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505111225.j4BCPEu1012524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111223 SWODY1 SPC AC 111221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE STJ 10 S FLV 10 WSW HUT 30 NE GAG 55 N CDS DHT 50 WSW GLD 30 NE IML 15 S EAR BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CAO 15 SSE LIC 25 SSW SNY 35 WNW BUB 30 S SUX 30 SSW RFD 30 E FWA 20 NW PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 W HTS 50 N EVV 40 WSW JEF 35 SW EMP 20 SE CSM 45 W ABI 20 SE HOB 10 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA ...CONT... 30 SSE MOB 15 SSW MEI 10 WSW TUP 15 SSE POF 25 SSE TBN 30 NW JLN 50 E OKC MWL 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 60 SSE MRF 20 SW CVS 35 WNW CAO 20 N TAD 15 N ALS 10 SW DRO 40 W U17 50 W MLF 50 SSW ENV BYI 10 E IDA COD 40 NE SHR 45 SSE Y22 40 SSE MSP 40 NE MTC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO MUCH OF KS AND EXTREME SRN NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NV/UT BORDER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD INTO UT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER WRN WY DURING THE PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT MCS OVER IA/IL HAS PLACED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN MO AND NRN KS. MODELS VARY A BIT ON WHAT SURFACE LOW OVER CO WILL DO TODAY...EITHER MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL KS OR LEAVING IT IN E CENTRAL/SERN CO. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN NRN KS...AND AGAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER SWD ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. ...CENTRAL PLAINS FROM KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 40-50 KT LLJ FROM TX THROUGH KS ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LYING E-W ACROSS NRN KS. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPE ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG TODAY...WITH SOME APPROACHING 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO INTO W CENTRAL IL. ANALYSIS OF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WITH EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 300 M2/S2. THUS...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE FORECAST OF 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 250 M2/S2 INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF NRN KS AND EXTREME SRN NEB. GIVEN ALSO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MANY OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SWD FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE. MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE N-S OVER ERN CO AS MID LEVEL JET OF 60-65 KT WILL BE OVER NERN NM INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. WHAT IS SUBTLE ACROSS THIS AREA IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 30-40 KT WLY TO SWLY WINDS THAT WILL RUN FROM EXTREME NRN MEXICO INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL OK PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE DRYLINE. THIS SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE ONCE AGAIN TODAY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...MO RIVER VALLEY EWD THRU MID MS VALLEY INTO OHIO... ISOLATED BOW ECHO NOW MOVING THRU NERN IL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS IN INTO WRN OH ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO MO/IL ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. ...FL... LATEST LIGHTNING LOOP SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED OFFSHORE OF GA/NERN FL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL GA/SC. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN FL ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/MODEST LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. ..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 16:17:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 11:17:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505111626.j4BGQi0S030136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111620 SWODY1 SPC AC 111618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N FNB 25 E STJ MKC 10 WSW HUT 25 NNE GAG 60 N CDS 35 ENE AMA 50 NW GCK 25 SSW MCK 25 ENE HSI 25 N FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE DHT 15 NNE LAA 35 SW IML 30 ENE LBF 35 S SUX 35 WSW MMO 40 NNW FWA 20 NW PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 WSW HTS 15 ESE EVV 15 W VIH 45 SSW EMP 30 NNW END 45 NE CSM 25 S LTS 30 N ABI 50 WSW ABI 30 WNW BGS 25 NNE DHT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MLB 40 SW ORL 40 SSE CTY 35 NNW CTY 35 SSW AYS 30 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 10 NE TCC 35 E TAD 20 SW PUB 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN 15 SSW MQM 25 E SHR 30 E PIR 10 SE RST 65 N MTC ...CONT... 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX/WRN KS EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN GA AND FL... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...EAST OF AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER UT THIS MORNING. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY STRONG COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD OUT OF E-CENTRAL NEB INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NWRN KS/ERN CO...WITH LOW CENTER NEAR GLD AT 15Z. EAST OF THIS LOW...OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION...DRY LINE WILL BECOME WELL DEFINED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN KS INTO THE CENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLES AND THE WEST TX PLAINS LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ...THOUGH ADEQUATE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... REMAINS A BIT DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. EXCEPTION IS INTO ERN KS/FAR NWRN MO WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MAY HOLD. STILL EXPECT MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SURVIVE DEEP MIXING JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO NERN KS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. SHOULD HEATING ERODE CAP ACROSS FAR SRN IA/NRN MO THIS MORNING...SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. WITH NO WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM EVIDENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...EXPECT STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE CAP EROSION AND RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE AND NEAR LOW CENTER BETWEEN 20-22Z. OTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND FAR SRN NEB INTO NWRN MO LATER TODAY. COLLOCATION OF 40-50 KT SLY LLJ UNDER 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES. MOST LIKELY AREA OF TORNADOES SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN KS AND WITH ANY STORM WHICH CAN REMAIN ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB/NWRN MO. WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT THIS MORNING ON JTN PROFILER THAN FORECAST /I.E. 40 KT AT 6 KM/...SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS ALONG SRN PORTION OF DRY LINE AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY INTO THE MID/LATE EVENING. MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS WRN/NRN KS AND LIFT NWD INTO NEB TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. ...IL INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND ENEWD AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES STATES. LEADING MCS HAS WEAKENED OVER MI...THOUGH TRAILING OUTFLOW MAY INITIATE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER IND AND NWRN OH AS STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. AREA VWPS AND WOLCOTT/IND PROFILER INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SRN EXTENT OF THIS STRONGER WLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL IL/IND AND OH THROUGH THE DAY AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH ANY ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SECOND MID LEVEL SYSTEM NOW LIFTING INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO MAY ALSO DEVELOP CONVECTION...POSSIBLE MCS...WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND INCREASE WIND POTENTIAL IF HEATING CAN ERODE CAP NEAR E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY. ...SRN GA INTO FL... MODEST NWLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION TODAY...IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW NOW ALONG THE GA COAST. SHOULD SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INITIATE STORMS...THEY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 816 FOR FURTHER DETAILS/. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 20:18:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 15:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505112028.j4BKSZUc001463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112018 SWODY1 SPC AC 112017 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE FNB 30 E STJ 10 SE MKC 15 WNW HUT 25 NNE GAG 60 N CDS 35 ENE AMA 45 SSE GLD 10 S MCK 40 ESE GRI 30 NNE FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CAO 45 S LAA 35 S PUB DEN 40 SE AKO 35 SW IML 30 ENE LBF 35 S SUX 50 ESE MMO 30 WSW TOL 15 W YNG 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 50 W HTS 10 SE EVV 25 ENE CGI 50 SSE SZL 45 SSW EMP 30 WNW PNC 30 W END 25 S LTS 10 W ABI 40 ENE BGS 30 WNW BGS 25 E CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 35 WNW AGR 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 W CTY 35 SSE VLD 15 ENE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 20 W CAO 45 NW RTN 50 NNE ALS 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN 10 S MQM 50 ESE LVM 15 W 4BQ 55 WSW RAP 25 SW BKX 40 SW MKG 45 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN KS...SRN NEB...FAR NWRN MO...AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO AND THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING INTO SRN CO ATTM. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS WITHIN AREA OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED NEWD INTO SRN NEB...AND THEN EWD THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL OH. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NWWD INTO SWRN NEB. A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED FROM ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER SWD INTO WRN TX. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE...WARM FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SMALL CAP EVIDENT ON THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING...AND VERY LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION FARTHER S OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 20-22Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD TO WEST CENTRAL TX WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY INITIATE. SLY LLJ WILL REDEVELOP WWD AND STRENGTHEN BY 00Z FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN KS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE/WARM FRONT OVER NWRN KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN/NRN KS WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB...AS THE 40-45 KT SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS MAINTAINED WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE CO SURFACE LOW INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...ERN CO... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE FROM AROUND PUB TO NEAR DEN ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ...LOWER MO VALLEY EWD TO THE OH VALLEY... MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM FAR NERN KS INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AND INTO IL OVERNIGHT. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW STORMS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MULTICELLS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE THREAT FROM IL EWD TO OH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NRN FL... OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND/OR AT THE INTERSECTION OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 22:09:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 17:09:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505112219.j4BMJ2L2018292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112216 SWODY1 SPC AC 112215 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 112210Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE FNB 30 E STJ 10 SE MKC 25 WNW HUT 50 WSW P28 60 N CDS 30 ENE AMA 45 E LAA 35 NE LAA 40 SSE AKO 25 N IML 25 ESE GRI 30 NNE FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CAO 45 S LAA 35 S PUB DEN 10 SW AKO 30 S SNY 15 SSE AIA 35 S SUX 50 ESE MMO 30 WSW TOL 15 W YNG 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 50 W HTS 10 SE EVV 25 ENE CGI 50 SSE SZL 45 SSW EMP 30 WNW PNC 30 W END 25 S LTS 10 W ABI 40 ENE BGS 30 WNW BGS 25 E CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CTY 35 SSE VLD 15 ENE JAX ...CONT... VRB 35 WNW AGR 20 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 20 W CAO 45 NW RTN 50 NNE ALS 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN 10 S MQM 50 ESE LVM 15 W 4BQ 55 WSW RAP 25 SW BKX 40 SW MKG 45 NNE MTC ...CONT... 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN/NRN KS...SRN NEB...FAR NWRN MO...AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO AND THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL... AMENDED TO ADD THE REST OF NWRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB TO THE MODERATE RISK...AND EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK NWD ACROSS WRN NEB ...NWRN KS/NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN NEB... WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED FARTHER TO THE NW ACROSS ALL OF NW KS AND EXTENDED FROM ERN CO NEAR 45 E LIC NEWD TO NEAR MCK IN SWRN NEB. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED EWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN TO EAST CENTRAL MO WAS ACTING AS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT FARTHER TO THE EAST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION AND NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 40-60 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO TO CENTRAL NEB ATTM SUGGESTS LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP WWD AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GLD VAD WIND DATA INDICATED 0-3 KM SRH VALUES STRENGTHENING SINCE 21Z WITH THE 18Z RUC SUGGESTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE EVENING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 250-500 M2/S2. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...SOME STRONG...WILL BE LIKELY FROM THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION AND NEWD INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS THIS EVENING...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING INTO SRN CO ATTM. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS WITHIN AREA OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED NEWD INTO SRN NEB...AND THEN EWD THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL OH. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NWWD INTO SWRN NEB. A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED FROM ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER SWD INTO WRN TX. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE...WARM FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SMALL CAP EVIDENT ON THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING...AND VERY LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION FARTHER S OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 20-22Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD TO WEST CENTRAL TX WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY INITIATE. SLY LLJ WILL REDEVELOP WWD AND STRENGTHEN BY 00Z FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN KS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE/WARM FRONT OVER NWRN KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN/NRN KS WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB...AS THE 40-45 KT SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS MAINTAINED WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE CO SURFACE LOW INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...ERN CO... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE FROM AROUND PUB TO NEAR DEN ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ...LOWER MO VALLEY EWD TO THE OH VALLEY... MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM FAR NERN KS INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AND INTO IL OVERNIGHT. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW STORMS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MULTICELLS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE THREAT FROM IL EWD TO OH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NRN FL... OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND/OR AT THE INTERSECTION OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 01:02:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 20:02:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505120112.j4C1CDoY020668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120109 SWODY1 SPC AC 120108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BIE 15 SW BIE 35 NNW MHK 25 N SLN 25 NW RSL 40 SSE HLC DDC 40 NE EHA 55 S GLD 25 SSW IML 20 N IML 25 ESE GRI 15 NW BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW AMA EHA 35 SSW GLD 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 30 ESE MHN 35 SSW SUX 40 SSE DSM 30 SW BRL 25 N CMI 15 SSW MFD 10 NNW ZZV 30 SSW UNI 25 NNW LEX 25 SE MDH 35 E VIH 25 SSW SZL 15 E HUT 30 W END 25 S LTS ABI 40 ENE BGS 40 NW BGS 15 WSW AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 20 W CAO 45 NW RTN 50 NNE ALS 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN 10 S MQM 50 ESE LVM 15 W 4BQ 25 NNE REJ 25 ENE ABR 30 ENE ABR 35 NE FSD 10 SE FOD 20 ESE CID 25 SE MMO 35 ENE FWA 20 WSW CLE 30 NW YNG 10 W BFD 30 SW ALB 45 NNE BML ...CONT... 20 SSE OAJ 35 ENE CLT 40 WSW AVL 15 NNW RMG 45 SSW CSG 25 W MGR 10 S SSI ...CONT... 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA ...CONT... 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN KS INTO SRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS... ...NEB/NRN KS INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CO/WRN KS BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER AREA OF NEB/KS NEAR 45 NNE HLC. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN KS/NRN MO...THEN EXTENDED SEWD INTO CENTRAL MO. VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA ACROSS KS/OK SHOWED THE SLY LLJ HAS REDEVELOPED WWD AND WAS LOCATED FROM WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS. THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH SWLY 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WRN NEB THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL REMAIN SURFACE BASED THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. AFTER 03Z...STORMS WILL BECOME PRIMARILY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. THIS MCS WILL BE FED BY A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER 40 KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO NEB...WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS WILL BE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...WRN KS SWD TO OK/TX PANHANDLES... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WRN KS...GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DDC SOUNDING. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE MORE CONDITIONAL...GIVEN GREATER CINH PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ...IL/IN/OH... A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IL INTO CENTRAL OH...WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL/SRN IL EWD TO SRN IND WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...WITH A COUPLE OF MCV/S/ MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL/SRN IND AIDING IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS UNTIL 03-04Z. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL DECREASE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 04:49:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 23:49:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505120459.j4C4xVZR012609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120456 SWODY1 SPC AC 120455 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BVO CSM 40 NNW CDS 45 WSW GAG 25 ESE DDC SLN 20 NW TOP 25 SW OJC 35 NNW BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBB AMA EHA LAA 50 SSW GLD HLC 45 WNW BIE 30 NNW OMA MCW DBQ MMO LAF BMG 10 SSE MVN VIH UMN SPS 30 W ABI 10 SSE BGS LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE ...CONT... 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24 55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE LBE 20 WSW DCA 25 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OK...AND CENTRAL/EAST KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH BROAD BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHWEST OK BORDER BY MORNING...THEN BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ACROSS KS DURING THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON THURSDAY. ...TX/OK/KS/MO... MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY WILL LIE ROUGHLY FROM AMA-GAG-GBD BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW EARLY-MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 700MB TEMPS/CAP WILL SLOWLY COOL/WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING DUE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF NM. FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...ACROSS NORTHWEST OK...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS. HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...BACKED FLOW IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY AND INCREASING 850MB WINDS SUGGEST THAT TORNADO THREAT MAY LOCALLY INCREASE OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KS AND INTO MO. ...KS/CO... DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ...IA/IL/MO INTO THE OH VALLEY... SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING. MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE SUGGESTS A RISK OF WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH RIVER. THIS WILL BE BENEATH UPPER RIDGE... SUGGESTING THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 12:47:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 07:47:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505121256.j4CCut0S023670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121254 SWODY1 SPC AC 121252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNC 10 SSE CDS 15 SE LBB 50 ENE CVS 40 E DHT 45 N GAG 10 NW HUT 20 SSW TOP 15 NNE CNU PNC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CVS 30 SE LHX 50 SSW GLD 20 WNW RSL 10 S BIE 50 NNE OMA 10 SSE MCW 20 ENE DBQ 35 SW CGX 15 E LAF BMG 10 SSE MVN VIH 20 SSW JLN SPS 15 NW ABI 20 NNW MAF 10 NW CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24 55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE 10 SSW HLG 35 ENE CHO 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION NEWD INTO KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE MID MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW ENTERING SW WY SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD TODAY AND REACH CNTRL ND EARLY FRIDAY AS IT DE AMPLIFIES AND IS REABSORBED INTO THE VLYS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN IMPULSE NOW ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE NE ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE NRN PLNS EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... THE DATA APPEAR LARGELY DEVOID OF IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES FROM THE LWR MO VLY EWD TO THE ATLANTIC. AT LOWER LEVELS...LATEST SURFACE DATA AND PROFILER/VWPS SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONTAL SURGE WHICH CROSSED WRN/CNTRL KS OVERNIGHT IS DECELERATING ATTM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK. THE WRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATER TODAY... WHILE THE KS PORTION EVENTUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY . FARTHER E... UNUSUALLY STRONG ONTARIO HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN A SWD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO MD. A DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY OVER W TX. ...TX PANHANDLE TO CNTRL/ERN KS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ ORIENTED FROM S CNTRL TX NWWD INTO THE LBB AREA AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. FRONT NOW MOVING S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SHOULD REDEVELOP N TO PERHAPS THE OK PANHANDLE REGION LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING /WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY/ AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS AHEAD OF AZ/NM IMPULSE. DIURNAL HEATING...COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAP ROCK/ SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT AND/OR DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS FROM NEAR LBB NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE FOSTERED BY GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AZ/NM SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO NW OK AND SRN...CNTRL AND NE KS. AMPLE /40 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ALONG MDT RISK CORRIDOR. THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DISCRETE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY EXIST IN THE TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHERE LINEAR FORCING WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER NE /ASSUMING THAT FRONT DOES INDEED REDEVELOP N/ ...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. NEVERTHELESS...ONCE STORMS DO FORM ALONG FRONT NEWD INTO KS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM NW OK INTO SRN KS AS SUPERCELLS TRAIN NEWD ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A QUASI LINEAR MCS. ...NRN AND ERN CO... SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY RETURN NWD TO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR A WEAK SUPERCELL OR TWO IN SE CO...WHERE LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES WILL EXIST. FARTHER N...LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH HAIL MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE N CNTRL AND NE PART OF THE STATE. ...IA/IL/MO INTO THE LWR OH VLY... INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE FRONT STALLING IN THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 750-1000 J PER KG/ LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. IN THE MEAN TIME...OTHER SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY INVOF THE LWR OH RVR WITH SURFACE HEATING TODAY. UPR LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 16:30:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 11:30:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505121639.j4CGdin2015894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121635 SWODY1 SPC AC 121634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 25 SSW P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 20 ENE FLV MHK 20 E CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 E OFK 15 SSE FOD 35 SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 SE END 75 ESE LBB 35 NNE HOB 40 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24 55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE 10 SSW HLG 35 ENE CHO 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...WEST TX PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL KS... WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SEWD MOTION THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SWWD TO JUST SE OF GAG TO W OF PVW AT 15Z. HEATING/MIXING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING E-W BETWEEN LBB AND PVW ON THE SOUTH END. FRONT SHOULD MIX/LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD NORTH OF PVW LATER TODAY AND WNWWD INTO NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST THIS MORNING ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INITIATING ALONG SWRN PORTION OF FRONT OVER WEST TX PLAINS/FAR E-CENTRAL NM AND LIFT NEWD JUST BEHIND FRONT. RISK OF HAIL...INCLUDING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL STONES...SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE NEAR THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP...AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH SLY LLJ REMAINING ANCHORED AND INCREASING OVER NWRN TX...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE SVR MCS/S LATER TODAY AND LIFT NNEWD WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL... SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEB TODAY AND ALLOW WARM FRONT TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NRN MO/FAR SRN IA. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING NARROW AREA EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA...GIVEN EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S AND PRESENCE OF LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AS THEY LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SRN IL TODAY. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION BY 21Z FROM ERN MO INTO SRN IL. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED OVER SRN IL WITHIN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST MULTICELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 17:37:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 12:37:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505121747.j4CHlFbN002444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121745 SWODY1 SPC AC 121744 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 25 SSW P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 20 ENE FLV MHK 20 E CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 E OFK 15 SSE FOD 35 SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 SE END 75 ESE LBB 35 NNE HOB 40 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 NW INK 45 WSW CAO 30 S PUB 15 NNE ALS 25 NW DRO 30 ENE U17 15 SSW PUC 45 SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 15 ESE CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 25 W EAR 25 ENE MHE 60 ESE BRD 20 WNW IMT 55 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 20 S CRW 30 NNE SSU 25 ESE EKN 20 NNW CHO 35 ENE LYH 20 WSW ECG 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 50 N AGS 30 ESE RMG 30 NW BHM 30 ENE LUL 45 NNW GPT 40 NNW BTR 25 SSW GLH 25 WNW MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 40 ESE TBN 25 S TBN 25 NW HRO 20 S ACT 40 E SAT 35 E COT 65 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... CORRECTED GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ...WEST TX PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL KS... WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SEWD MOTION THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SWWD TO JUST SE OF GAG TO W OF PVW AT 15Z. HEATING/MIXING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING E-W BETWEEN LBB AND PVW ON THE SOUTH END. FRONT SHOULD MIX/LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD NORTH OF PVW LATER TODAY AND WNWWD INTO NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST THIS MORNING ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INITIATING ALONG SWRN PORTION OF FRONT OVER WEST TX PLAINS/FAR E-CENTRAL NM AND LIFT NEWD JUST BEHIND FRONT. RISK OF HAIL...INCLUDING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL STONES...SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE NEAR THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP...AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH SLY LLJ REMAINING ANCHORED AND INCREASING OVER NWRN TX...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE SVR MCS/S LATER TODAY AND LIFT NNEWD WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL... SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEB TODAY AND ALLOW WARM FRONT TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NRN MO/FAR SRN IA. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING NARROW AREA EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA...GIVEN EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S AND PRESENCE OF LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AS THEY LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SRN IL TODAY. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION BY 21Z FROM ERN MO INTO SRN IL. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED OVER SRN IL WITHIN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST MULTICELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 20:04:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:04:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505122014.j4CKENK0019438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122005 SWODY1 SPC AC 122003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 30 S P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 30 NE MKC MHK 20 E CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 NE OFK 20 WNW FOD 35 SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 NNE OKC 55 SSW LTS 35 SSE BGS 15 E INK 40 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 NW INK 45 WSW CAO 30 S PUB 15 NNE ALS 25 NW DRO 30 ENE U17 15 SSW PUC 45 SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 15 ESE CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 25 W EAR 25 ENE MHE 60 ESE BRD 20 WNW IMT 55 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 20 S CRW 30 NNE SSU 25 ESE EKN 20 NNW CHO 20 NNW RIC 35 WSW ORF 35 N HSE ...CONT... 25 SW CRE 50 N AGS 30 ESE RMG 30 NW BHM 30 ENE LUL 45 NNW GPT 40 NNW BTR 25 SSW GLH 25 WNW MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 40 ESE TBN 25 S TBN 25 NW HRO 20 S ACT 40 E SAT 35 E COT 65 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...WEST TX PLAINS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES/NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES/VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD STOPPED MOVING SEWD. IT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST TX PLAINS /BETWEEN LBB AND PVW/ NEWD TO NWRN OK INTO CENTRAL/NERN KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LOW...AND ENTRANCE REGION OF ATTENDANT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM W TX TO CENTRAL KS INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/ STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORM. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST. AMA 18Z SOUNDING INDICATED MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED CAPE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE TOWARD THE MAF AREA WILL BE MORE ISOLATED GIVEN WEAKER UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE FOR THESE FACTORS RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK SWD OVER THIS REGION. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ TO 50 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS TX AND NOSING INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN AND NRN OK AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...THE NEB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD INTO IA. COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN NEB INTO NERN/CENTRAL KS. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO SWRN IA. HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH STORMS TRACKING NEWD INTO NERN NEB/NWRN IA ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE SERN NEB SURFACE LOW INTO NRN MO...AND THEN SEWD INTO KY AS A WARM FRONT. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. INCREASING WAA ALONG A SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 00:45:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 19:45:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505130055.j4D0tWMf028251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130053 SWODY1 SPC AC 130051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CVS 55 NNE AMA 25 SSE DDC 30 ESE RSL MHK 10 WNW FLV 35 WNW LWD 20 SSE ALO 30 WSW RFD 15 SE LAF 15 WSW BMG 15 E MDH 25 E VIH 20 NE JLN 55 ENE OKC 60 WSW SPS 40 S MAF INK 40 ENE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 SSE CNM 45 NW HOB 10 SW TCC 25 E EHA LHX 15 NNE ALS 45 SSW GUC 35 SE CNY 20 E PUC 45 SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 30 E CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 20 SSW BIE 30 SSE OMA 45 W FOD FSD 55 WSW AXN 25 WNW BRD 30 ENE RHI 45 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 35 ESE 5I3 20 ESE SSU 40 S CHO 20 S RIC 15 NW ECG 30 N HSE ...CONT... 20 SW CRE 15 SW AND 55 SSE BNA 30 ENE CBM 20 ENE GPT 35 ENE MSY 40 S MCB 35 SW GWO 25 WNW MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 50 ESE TBN 40 SSW TBN 20 NE FYV 10 ESE DUA 55 ENE JCT 40 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA... STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A LINEAR MCS FROM KS NEWD THROUGH IA WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM NWRN MO SWD TO NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...AN AXIS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO SEWD TO JUST S OF ST LOUIS. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH NRN MO...WITH BACKBUILDING ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE FARTHER SW ACROSS KS AS WELL. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LIKELY AS THEY CONTINUE THROUGH NRN MO. HOWEVER...THE DRYER BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS FROM 20-25F MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...TX AND OK... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION OVER THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE ARE EVOLVING INTO A SLOW MOVING/BACKBUILDING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS...W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS ONE OR MORE MASS AS THEY SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 05:46:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 00:46:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505130556.j4D5u2G5021970@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130554 SWODY1 SPC AC 130552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE MRF 15 WNW FST 40 SW LBB 40 SSE EHA 30 N DDC 20 W LWD 25 ESE CID 10 WNW JVL 40 SSW HTL 85 ESE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 35 NW AOO 15 SE CRW 30 NNW BWG 15 NNW DYR 20 W LIT 45 E ACT 30 N SAT 55 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE CTB 20 ESE LWT 15 ESE WRL 30 N BPI 50 N SUN 10 NNW BOI 55 N WMC 10 ENE LOL 10 N TVL 15 NE SAC 50 ESE UKI 45 N UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 30 SE MCK 40 NNW OMA 15 ESE EAU ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 20 NNW BDR 25 E PHL 30 NNW BWI 45 NNE SHD 30 E LYH 55 SSW RIC 30 N HSE ...CONT... 30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV 25 N LGC 10 SSE BHM 20 NW MEI 10 ESE MLU 20 ENE LFK 50 SSE AUS LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE EAST AND INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING SEWD THROUGH KS...OK AND TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. ...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA... SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE FRONT NOW FROM KY WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY. DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E OF SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS A MODERATE RISK WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY... ONGOING STORMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN KS RAISE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS HAVE BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING ACROSS OK AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. STORMS ON THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO MUCH OF OK SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND WEAKENS. THIS SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY STORMS E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF W TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS. ONCE SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...BUT STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM NRN TX INTO CNTRL KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH KS. PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN W TX. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL STORMS ON THE COLD FRONT...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SERN STATES... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT FROM SC NWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 12:42:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 07:42:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505131252.j4DCqRZM005498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131249 SWODY1 SPC AC 131247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW ERI HLG 30 NW CRW 30 SE OWB 35 N DYR 15 NW LIT 40 E ACT 35 NNW JCT 55 SE MAF 25 SSW LBB 30 SSE LBL 15 NW UIN 30 SW MKE 25 SE HTL 80 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE CTB 20 ESE LWT 15 ESE WRL 30 N BPI 50 N SUN 10 NNW BOI 55 N WMC 10 ENE LOL 10 N TVL 15 NE SAC 50 ESE UKI 45 N UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 20 NE POU 10 SE DOV 20 SSE DCA 25 NE CHO 30 E LYH 55 SSW RIC 30 N HSE ...CONT... 30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV 25 N LGC 10 SSE BHM 20 NW MEI 10 ESE MLU 20 ENE LFK 50 SSE AUS LRD ...CONT... 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 30 SE MCK 40 NNW OMA 15 ESE EAU ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER MI/OH AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE DIGGING SEWD OVER SASKATCHEWAN. IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN IA WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD LOWER MI AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS IL/IND/OH. A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE IA CYCLONE TO A SECONDARY LEE CYCLONE ACROSS EXTREME SW KS. THIS LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP SSEWD TODAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES SEWD AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS IA/MO/KS/OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ...TX/OK/KS/MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING ACROSS OK...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO ERN OK AND 1-2 COUNTIES S OF THE RED RIVER. THE REMNANT COLD POOL ACROSS OK AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE W FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W TO E AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS SRN KS/CENTRAL AND WRN OK/NW TX IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000-3500 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TX TO SRN/SERN KS AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING... MOISTENING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM S/SE KS TO N/NW OK...AND THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE THAT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/NW TX BY TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-40 KT /ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN THE SRN EXTENT OF THE PLAINS MID LEVEL TROUGH/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF INITIATION. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WITH MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS MO IS MORE UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN MO WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO WHERE THE LOW LEVELS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECOVER...AND IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD FROM SE KS. ...IL/IND/MI/OH AREA TODAY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED SE OF THE REMNANT CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION /ROUGHLY SE OF A SGF-SPI-MBS LINE/. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND ANY ATTENDANT THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 16:15:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 11:15:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505131624.j4DGOYTo020079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131619 SWODY1 SPC AC 131618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW CDS 30 SSW GAG 40 ESE GAG 15 S END 15 SSW OKC 20 E SPS 55 SW SPS 45 S CDS 20 NNW CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 25 SE FKL 10 NNW UNI 40 SSW EVV 35 N DYR 15 NW LIT 40 E ACT 35 NNW JCT 55 SE MAF 25 SSW LBB 30 SSE LBL 10 WSW SLN 15 WNW UIN 30 SW MKE 20 NNW HTL 10 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 50 NE GTF 35 N LWT 25 N BIL 35 NE COD 25 ESE WEY SUN 35 NE OWY 20 ESE EKO 40 N ELY 60 SSW ELY 70 ENE TPH 40 S U31 40 W U31 20 S NFL 70 NW BIH 45 NNE FAT 35 N FAT 30 ESE MER 25 N MER 30 ENE SCK 10 NNE SAC 50 ESE UKI 45 NNW UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 E ONP 25 ESE AST 20 ESE HQM 30 SSW CLM 55 NE SEA 45 W YKM 35 ENE DLS 45 E YKM 40 ENE EPH 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 30 SSE DVL 20 ESE BIS 20 ESE DIK 20 E ISN 55 N ISN ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 35 W PVW 45 NNE CAO 30 SE MCK 50 WSW DSM 30 WNW OSH ANJ ...CONT... 20 N PBG 15 SE POU 10 ESE BWI 25 NW RIC 20 ENE RDU 10 NE FAY 35 S ILM ...CONT... 30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV 40 NE DHN 50 SSW LUL 10 E HUM 30 W HUM 15 NW LCH 15 ENE LFK 25 SSE TYR 65 E ACT 50 SSE AUS LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TODAY FROM TX INTO OH/WESTERN NY. HOWEVER...TWO AREAS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FOCUSED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...TX/OK... SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK. POOL OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE OVER THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WHICH WILL APPROACH WESTERN OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST TX...AND WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IMMEDIATELY ON NORTH SIDE OF THIS ZONE MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST OK. ...ERN IL/NRN IND/SRN LWR MI/NWRN OH... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING ALONG THE MS RIVER...MOVING INTO IL. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE HELPING TO QUICKLY TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND DESTABILIZE REGION. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POCKETS OF SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON FROM EASTERN IL ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN IL/WESTERN IND AND SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NY/PA. ...KS/MO/CNTRL AND SRN IL... CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...MUCH OF MO...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. THIS AREA WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH 30-40 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 00:53:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 May 2005 19:53:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505150103.j4F13Lgd028691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150101 SWODY1 SPC AC 150059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BGM 15 SSE MSV 10 NNW EWR 20 ESE DOV 40 WNW ECG 60 SSW RIC 40 W RIC 30 NW BWI 15 NE IPT 20 S BGM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 30 S ALM 25 SE 4CR 55 ENE 4CR 40 W CVS 25 NNW HOB 20 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 45 W JCT 50 NNE DRT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM ...CONT... 20 SE SAV 70 W SAV 40 NNE ABY 35 E DHN 15 SE PFN ...CONT... 50 E DUG 55 NNW SVC 50 ENE SOW 35 NNE INW 25 N PRC IGM 40 SSW U31 35 WSW WMC 45 E SVE 15 W RNO 70 NNW BIH 40 WNW BIH 45 NNE FAT 35 NNE MER 55 SE RBL 50 W RBL 30 ESE CEC 30 NE OTH 40 W PDX 45 NNE PDX 40 SE SEA 35 S 4OM 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 NW HVR 40 ENE LWT 45 W GCC 35 SW DGW 40 ENE CYS 50 ESE LIC 45 N GCK 20 N DDC 30 S DDC 35 SSW LBL AMA 35 NNW PVW 40 WSW LBB 20 NNW BGS 45 E SJT 20 SE ACT 40 ENE SHV 40 WSW UOX BNA 15 ENE UNI 10 E YNG 35 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 25 E SRQ 25 NE FMY 50 NW MIA 20 SSE MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN NM... ...PA AND SERN NY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA... SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM ERN PA SWWD THROUGH CNTRL VA. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIMITED TO AOB 30 KT AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INCLUDING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS OF 15 TO 20F APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. ...SWRN TX THROUGH ERN NM... A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL TX WWD THROUGH SWRN TX. ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE HAVE MAINTAINED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S INTO SERN NM AND SWRN TX UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX. OTHER STORMS INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL AND NRN NM. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS AND PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE RAISES UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR IN SWRN TX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES...AND MODELS SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER NM LATER TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 05:32:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 00:32:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505150541.j4F5fWDx004365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150539 SWODY1 SPC AC 150537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS 35 SE AGS 40 SSE AHN 40 NW AHN 25 WSW HKY 20 SW LYH 20 E CHO BWI 10 WSW PHL 20 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 20 E TCS 25 ESE ABQ 35 ENE ALS COS 20 E LIC 35 WSW GLD 40 NE CAO 50 ENE CVS 50 N MAF 65 SSE MAF 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 40 WNW GDV 35 E 4BQ 10 NW RAP 35 NE PIR 20 NE FSD 25 N MWL 15 W TPL 40 N HOU 15 WNW BTR 15 ESE BLF 20 WSW ABE 15 W PSF 50 NNE PBG ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 40 NW EPM ...CONT... 50 E DUG 50 E SOW 70 N INW P38 20 E FAT 45 SE RBL MFR 25 NNW DLS 55 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX NOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN EJECT ENEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF A COLD FRONT NOW FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM S TX WWD THROUGH ERN NM. ...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NWD OF CNTRL VA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH OH VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY 30-40 KT...BUT MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LINGER FROM ONGOING STORMS...BUT POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM VA SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL LINES WITH SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER TO SELY N OF STALLED FRONT FROM SWRN TX THROUGH ERN NM AND CO AS CNTRL PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER ERN NM AND 40S OVER ERN CO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO NM AND W TX TODAY. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS FROM PARTS OF ERN NM INTO W TX EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT OR DELAY DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER ERN NM WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO W TX WITHIN REGIME OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION N OF STALLED FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN NM TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER ERN CO IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST INTO LESSER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND KS DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 12:49:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 07:49:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505151258.j4FCwa7n020520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151256 SWODY1 SPC AC 151254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 20 E TCS 25 SSE SAF 20 SSE LVS 40 WSW TCC 40 NNW HOB 35 WNW MAF 65 SSE MAF 35 ESE P07. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 40 WNW CHS 40 N AGS 10 W GSP 25 WSW HKY 20 SW LYH 20 E CHO BWI 15 S PHL 20 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 45 ENE SOW 30 S CNY 40 WNW PUC 35 WNW U24 45 SSW TPH 30 NE FAT 45 SE RBL MFR 10 NE BLI ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD 15 SSE OKC 15 W TPL 40 N HOU 25 E BTR 35 SSE PKB 45 NNW ILG 25 NE MSV 25 NNW PBG ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 40 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SW TX AND SE NM.... ...ATLANTIC COAST AREA... A DIFFUSE BAND OF CONVECTION /ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS/ IS MOVING EWD ACROSS AL/GA/SC...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INVOF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 5.5-6.5 C/KM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING E OF THE THICKER CLOUD BAND SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY BY LATE EVENING...AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA... A FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS W TX WILL CONTINUE TOWARD CENTRAL TX TODAY...SUPPORTED BY ELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST. MEANWHILE...LINGERING CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLUSTER INTRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ONGOING STORMS...AND TO THE W ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NM. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 16:02:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 11:02:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505151612.j4FGC2Zb023529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151607 SWODY1 SPC AC 151605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 40 SSE CAE 40 NW AGS AND HKY LYH 35 ENE CHO DOV 10 ESE ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 20 E TCS ONM 4CR GDP FST 45 NE P07 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 20 NNW SAD 55 NE INW 35 SSW GJT CAG RWL 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35 S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 35 ESE SEP 50 SSW LFK 20 S POE 40 NNW BTR 25 NNE MCB 30 WSW TCL 10 WSW CHA 40 ESE 5I3 40 NNW SSU 10 ENE MGW ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES`... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX... ...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTHERN AL. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM GA INTO SOUTHEAST VA. AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC...ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...INTO SOUTHEAST VA. THIS REGION SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING TODAY LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AL/GA WILL ALSO AFFECT THIS REGION LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW 20-30 KNOT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ALOFT... SUGGESTING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STORMS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC COAST THIS EVENING. ...NM/TX... LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL ERODE SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS. PRESENT INDICATION ARE THAT WESTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY AID IN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ...NERN NM INTO WY/NEB... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST NM/EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY/NEB PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD EASTWARD. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 19:55:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 14:55:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505152006.j4FK63YC024609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152002 SWODY1 SPC AC 152001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 50 SSE CAE 25 N AGS 15 ESE SPA 10 ENE HKY LYH 30 E CHO 30 NNE NHK 35 SSW ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN 30 WSW TCS 25 NW ONM 30 NNE 4CR GDP 35 SW FST 70 N DRT 35 SSE JCT 45 SSE SAT 40 NW ALI 20 SSW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 20 NNW SAD 55 NE INW 35 SSW GJT CAG RWL 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35 S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 35 ESE SEP 50 SSW LFK 20 S POE 40 NNW BTR 25 NNE MCB 30 WSW TCL 10 WSW CHA 40 ESE 5I3 40 NNW SSU 10 ENE MGW ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NM INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN AND SRN TX... ...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TOWARD WRN QUEBEC...WITH A BAND OF 35-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER WRN NC/SC...WILL MOVE NEWD OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING. COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM WRN LONG ISLAND TO SERN VA AND SWWD TO NRN GA/CENTRAL AL. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE COAST AND WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...NM/TX... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL MCV TRACKING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL TX /30 SE BWD/ SWWD TO 35 NW DRT AND THEN WWD ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND REGION TO NRN CHIHUAHUA. FARTHER N...THIS BOUNDARY HAS BACKED INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM. OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FROM SERN NM INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER REGION OF STORMS HAS REMAINED THE STRONGEST...GIVEN ITS SEWD MOVEMENT INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MAINLY UNCAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN TX. SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS LEAD COMPLEX IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN UP TO 30 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CHIHUAHUA SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE MCV SHOULD AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THIS MCS MOVES INTO SRN TX. FARTHER W...VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SW TX...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO TO WRN NM AND SRN CO. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NM WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY ACROSS NM INTO SWRN TX WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ...ERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB... ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO SERN WY SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN WNWLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. DESPITE WEAK TO MODERATE WIND FIELDS...SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP...A FEW WILL BE SEVERE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ..PETERS.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 00:49:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 19:49:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505160100.j4G10Vog031350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ELP 35 WNW CVS 15 SE CVS 40 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 30 SW 4CR 60 NNE 4SL 20 SSE 4FC 10 NW LAR 20 SSE CPR 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35 S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 10 SSE TPL 45 NE HOU 20 WNW LFT 25 E BTR 35 S LUL 10 SSW MGM 35 NE ATL 40 N HKY 20 ENE SSU 45 SW MRB ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX... ...ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX... TSTM COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY INVOF ELP. GIVEN LOCAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER 2.5-3 KM DEEP /PER 00Z ELP SOUNDING/...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...ERN CO... ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CO /SPECIFICALLY YUMA COUNTY/ SWWD INTO PUEBLO COUNTY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG WIND GUST...PRIOR TO WEAKENING BY 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR ECG TO N OF CHS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA...IT APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED. THUS...CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM REGION. ..MEAD.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 04:32:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 23:32:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505160443.j4G4hKcS011590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160440 SWODY1 SPC AC 160439 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 35 SW 4HV 50 SW SGU 25 NNW LAS 60 S TPH 25 E U31. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PHP 35 W PIR 40 SSW ABR BKX 20 NE YKN 35 WNW OFK 25 E HLC 40 WSW GAG 25 W CDS 20 W PVW 35 S DHT 35 WSW IML 40 S PHP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 20 NW FAR 50 NNE MSP 35 NNW RST 20 N FOD OMA 40 N CNK 30 SSE RSL 40 ENE GAG 10 ENE LTS 35 WNW TPL 30 SSW PSX ...CONT... 25 S MOB 25 SSW MGM CAE 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 15 W ELP 25 NE ALM 50 S LVS 50 W RTN 65 S 4BL 35 ESE GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB SCK 40 SE RBL 55 SSW 4LW 25 S BKE 50 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN...EVENTUALLY INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM BUILDING OF RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH MID/UPPER LOW REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC NW SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER ERN ORE/WRN ID AT 16/12Z WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND CONSOLIDATE WITH BROADER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CNTRL MT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG...TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FARTHER E...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THROUGH THE DAY FROM WRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL WITH LITTLE EWD MOVEMENT OWING TO INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS TO THE W. WEAK WARM FRONT OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FROM IT/S INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. ...GREAT BASIN EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AS HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP...LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER TO THE NE...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF MT AND WY ALONG LEE TROUGH. GIVEN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK OVER THIS AREA. ...CNTRL SD/NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL... PERSISTENT STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND S OF WARM FRONT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN INITIATE GIVEN: 1) BUILDING HEIGHTS/STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...AND 2) ANTICIPATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. INSPECTION OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION SIGNAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM S-CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL...MORE ELEVATED TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD INTO SRN MN ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SERN U.S... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SC ACROSS SRN GA INTO THE FL PNHDL WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 12:14:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 07:14:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505161225.j4GCPm9P017805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161223 SWODY1 SPC AC 161221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 35 SW 4HV 50 SW SGU 25 NNW LAS 60 S TPH 25 E U31. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE RAP 50 E REJ 10 S MBG 30 N HON 35 WSW FSD 25 W OFK 30 NW GRI 45 ENE MCK 20 E IML 30 WNW MHN 30 SSE RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 20 NW FAR 50 NNE MSP 35 NNW RST 20 N FOD OMA 40 N CNK 30 SSE RSL 40 ENE GAG 10 ENE LTS 20 SW MWL 30 ENE ACT 40 SW GLS ...CONT... 25 S MOB 25 SSW MGM CAE 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 15 W ELP 25 NE ALM 50 S LVS 50 W RTN 65 S 4BL 35 ESE GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB SCK 40 SE RBL 55 SSW 4LW 25 S BKE 50 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NEB/SD.... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NRN CA WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER NV TODAY...REACHING UT/WRN CO OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVES SLOWLY SEWD TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIO GRANDE TROUGH...AND ALONG A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AREAS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND THE NEB/SD AREA. ...GREAT BASIN AREA... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NV TODAY AND UT TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INTENSE MID LEVEL WAVE. A THICK BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN NV. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...ALONG WITH ALREADY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN 50-70 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG/FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A FEW EMBEDDED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUCH POTENTIAL. ...NEB/SD AREA... A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM WI TO W TX...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MID 50S OR GREATER DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM CENTRAL TX SWD. ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND THE LOWER PLAINS TONIGHT. OVERALL...THIS FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED/MARGINAL ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...INVOF OF SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT ACROSS NEB/SD. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...COULD HELP OFFSET VERTICAL MIXING AND ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 F AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. ASSUMING CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION COULD ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING 35-50 KT SLY LLJ. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 16:21:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 11:21:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505161632.j4GGWbgK011589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161625 SWODY1 SPC AC 161623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10 NNE SGU 40 NE DRA 10 ESE TPH 25 E U31. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 15 NNE ATY 25 ESE RWF 15 NE SPW 30 SSW SUX 35 NNE GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ISN 20 W P24 40 NNE AXN 45 NNE MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N GAG 40 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 NNE ACT 25 SSE TYR 30 W POE 25 ESE BPT ...CONT... 25 S MOB 20 NNE ABY 15 NNE RWI 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 50 W MRF 45 SE ALM 35 SSE 4CR 40 NW 4CR 40 WSW ABQ 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20 E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB 25 S SAC 20 ENE UKI 50 SW MHS 30 WNW MHS 10 SE 4LW 25 S BKE 50 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF ID/NV/UT. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ID INTO NORTHERN UT. THIS AREA WILL SEE STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NV ALONG THE FRONT AND SURGE EASTWARD INTO ID/UT. STRONG WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS AND FOCUSED FORCING ALONG FRONT MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WY/CO TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT BY 06Z. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER WY/SD WHICH AFFECT REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL AID IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN AND INTO CENTRAL NEB. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO INTO MT. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. ...SC/GA/FL... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SC...SOUTHEAST GA...AND NORTHEAST FL. MODERATE INSTABILITY... COMBINED WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE STORMS OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 20:02:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 15:02:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505162013.j4GKD4OM022894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162006 SWODY1 SPC AC 162005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10 NNE SGU 40 NE DRA 10 ESE TPH 25 E U31. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 15 NNE ATY 25 ESE RWF 15 NE SPW 30 SSW SUX 35 NNE GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 45 ENE ALM 35 NNW 4CR 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20 E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB 25 S SAC 20 ENE UKI 50 SE EKA 25 S CEC ...CONT... 15 E BLI 25 E PDX 15 SW RDM 50 SW BNO 55 E BNO 45 NE S80 45 N FCA ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 W P24 40 NNE AXN 45 NNE MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N GAG 40 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 NNE ACT 25 SSE TYR 30 W POE 25 ESE BPT ...CONT... 25 S MOB 20 NNE ABY 15 NNE RWI 25 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO SWRN WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SWRN MN... ...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES... EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FOCUSED ASCENT...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEVELOPING CONVECTION...IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/STEEPENING EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.6-0.8 INCHES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXHIBIT INVERTED-V STRUCTURES SUPPORTING CLOUD BASES WELL ABOVE 700MB. IF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NV CAN ORGANIZE AND FORM A COLD POOL...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS UT INTO SWRN WY/SERN ID. ...NEB/SD/SWRN MN... LLJ WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NCNTRL KS INTO SERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUBSEQUENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY AS UPSTREAM LAPSE RATE PLUME STEEPENS AND SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THIS REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT MORE DOWNSTREAM AND BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WEAKLY ROTATING ELEVATED/NEAR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ...SERN U.S... VARIOUS SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND A WEAKLY FOCUSED...ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SC COAST...WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH STRONGEST MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG INTO SERN GA. IT APPEARS A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY YET EVOLVE FROM NERN FL INTO SERN GA WHERE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 00:33:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 19:33:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505170044.j4H0iEVk002115@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170041 SWODY1 SPC AC 170039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DPG 15 W MQM 20 N WEY 40 WSW COD 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10 NW BCE 30 WSW CDC 55 NNE P38 40 NNW DPG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 30 NE HON 10 ESE BKX 30 SSE FSD 25 ENE OFK 40 N GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HUM 30 SSW MCN 15 SSE RWI 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 W P24 40 NNE AXN 45 NNE MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N GAG 40 WNW CDS 40 SE LBB 30 SSW BWD 25 N CLL 60 N HOU 20 S BPT ...CONT... 50 W MRF 45 ENE ALM 35 NNW 4CR 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20 E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB 20 SSW SAC 55 S RBL 20 WNW RBL 25 S MHS 25 ESE MFR 35 SE EUG 25 NW PDX 35 NNW UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD... ...GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. INTENSE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION /PER WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET FROM ERN NV EWD ACROSS UT/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARE MAINTAINING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM ERN ID SWWD INTO SRN NV. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY /REF. 00Z SLC SOUNDING/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TONIGHT EWD ACROSS UT/ERN ID INTO PORTIONS OF WY AND CO. ...SD/NEB... SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT STORM INITIATION HAVE OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER N-CNTRL NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD INVOF WEAK W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH OVER SWRN SD GENERALLY EWD INTO FAR SWRN MN. INSPECTION OF 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT ALONG AXIS OF INTENSIFYING LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB EWD/NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. GIVEN STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN SC/GA... LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CHS SWWD TO JUST E OF ABY WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS SAMPLED BY 00Z JAX SOUNDING. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH 03Z. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 04:33:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 23:33:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505170444.j4H4i3Hj010848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170441 SWODY1 SPC AC 170439 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MLS 20 S OLF 25 W ABR 25 SSE YKN 15 WNW BIE 45 NNW P28 40 ENE LBL 45 WSW GCK 30 ESE SNY 60 NW MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH 15 SSE ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 25 NW SJT 55 E FST 30 SW MAF 30 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 25 NW EHA LAA PUB 10 WNW ALS 15 NNW FMN 20 W 4BL 25 ENE 4HV 35 E PUC 10 WNW RIW 40 N BIL 35 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 WNW HOU 45 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER SERN MT/NERN WY AT 17/12Z IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE AND FILL AS IT DEVELOPS NWWD WITH TIME...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL SD BY THIS EVENING. ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD OUT OF ROCKIES...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM ERN MT TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN SD AND THEN SWWD INTO ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD...STRETCHING FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT OVER SWRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL BY PEAK HEATING. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY FROM ERN MT/WY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEB AS DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO OVERALL WEAKENING OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND LARGELY MERIDIONAL MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW....IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. TRANSITION OF STORM MODE INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY RAPIDLY ALONG EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN KS...THOUGH INCREASED CAPPING AND WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAKES INITIATION MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWD EXTENT. ...SERN STATES... STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA AND FL PNHDL WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. PROXIMITY OF SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS AND RESULTING INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IN UPPER PORTION OF CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR GREATER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 12:38:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 07:38:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505171248.j4HCmsTs001740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171246 SWODY1 SPC AC 171244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW MLS SDY BIS YKN 15 WNW BIE 45 NNW P28 40 ENE LBL 45 WSW GCK 15 ENE SNY 65 NW MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 WNW HOU 45 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 25 NW SJT 55 E FST 30 SW MAF 30 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 25 NW EHA LAA PUB ALS DRO 10 NNE 4BL U28 20 ESE PUC 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROTATING ENEWD OUT OF NERN UTAH...WILL TRACK THROUGH SRN WY AND INTO SD THIS EVENING. A 50-60 KT JET MAX MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN THE TROUGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NEWD. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT AND IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL SD BY THIS EVENING. PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES OVER WRN CO...WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EWD EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE ND/MT BORDER SEWD INTO WRN SD/NEB AND INTO SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH HEATING AND STRENGTHING WLY WINDS ALOFT...A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP AND STRETCH FROM NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN SWRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...500-850MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND HEATING THROUGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MAINLY DUE TO DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF THE STORMS IN WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND EXTREME NRN KS EVOLVING INTO A LINE BETWEEN 22Z-00Z AS THE MID LEVEL JET MAX LIFTS NEWD OUT OF CO. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE PARCELS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE STORMS DURING THE EVENING DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO TWO OR THREE CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION MAINTAIN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY..SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN KS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAKER DYNAMICAL FORCING SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. ...FL PENINSULA... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW DEEP ELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WWD MOVING SEA BREEZE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PENINSULA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 150 EAST OF BRO MOVING EWD AT 25 KT. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD ACROSS SRN FL TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 6-8 KM AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ...GA/CAROLINAS COASTAL REGION... STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SERN GA SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INLAND LATER TODAY. PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH WINDS IN THE LOWER 3 KM ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE MICROBURSTS. ..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 16:19:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 11:19:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505171630.j4HGU3eb011540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171627 SWODY1 SPC AC 171626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ISN MOT ATY BIE RSL 50 N GCK GLD IML CDR MLS 80 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB 55 SSE CTY 40 WNW CTY 15 WNW AYS 35 SE AGS 20 W FLO 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 S MRF 30 NW FST 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 10 SW EHA 30 SSW LAA 25 SE PUB ALS 40 NE DRO 45 WSW MTJ 50 NE U28 30 WNW VEL 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 15 SW ALI 20 NNW NIR 55 S CLL 35 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...PLAINS... VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CO/WY WILL ROTATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS FROM EASTERN MT INTO KS IS MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT FORCING AHEAD OF TROUGH...SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL ERODE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO WRN NEB. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY...BUT RAPID EVOLUTION TO SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED OVER SD/NEB/NWRN KS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING. STORMS MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN SD/NEB OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. FARTHER SOUTH STRONG HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WESTERN KS INTO THE BIG BEND OF TX. AT THIS TIME...VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE STORMS ARE WARRANTED. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHEAST SC...AND NORTHERN FL. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF VARIOUS BOUNDARIES WILL POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. PLEASE REFER TO MD NUMBER 894 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/GUYER.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 19:46:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 14:46:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505171957.j4HJvQi5006690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171954 SWODY1 SPC AC 171952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ISN MOT ATY BIE RSL 50 N GCK GLD IML CDR 20 E 81V 45 SW 4BQ 70 WNW MLS 80 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB 55 SSE CTY 40 WNW CTY 15 WNW AYS 35 SE AGS 20 W FLO 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SW MRF 20 SSW INK 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 10 SW EHA 30 SSW LAA 25 SE PUB ALS 40 NE DRO 45 WSW MTJ 50 NE U28 30 WNW VEL 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 15 SW ALI 20 NNW NIR 55 S CLL 35 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO ERN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL WY TOWARD SERN MT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN WY INTO ERN MT WHERE AIRMASS HAS STEADILY DESTABILIZED...SBCAPES IN ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A GRADUAL MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR GGW TO RAP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG SHARPENING LEE TROUGH...SLOWLY THINNING BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SHIFTING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY. STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR AS THIS CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ALLOWING SFC BOUNDARY TO BECOME MORE RECEPTIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INHIBITION IS SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. IN THE ABSENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT...A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...POST DRYLINE CU FIELD IS EXPANDING EWD OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS IS POTENTIALLY A STRONG INDICATION FOR DOWNSTREAM SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB BY 21-22Z. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN U.S... SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED ACROSS THE SERN U.S. FROM COASTAL GA INTO NRN FL PENINSULA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE HOLDING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED IN THIS REGION WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN NRN FL...AND NEAR THE COAST ACROSS GA INTO SC. A GRADUAL UPWARD EVOLUTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH EXPANDING PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL UNTIL THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DARROW.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 00:26:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 19:26:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505180036.j4I0as7u013337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180034 SWODY1 SPC AC 180032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW MOT MOT ATY FSD 25 NNW SUX 35 S SUX 20 ENE BIE 30 W MHK 35 SSE RSL 35 S HLC 30 E MCK 20 NNE ANW 35 NE PHP 25 S GDV 30 WNW GDV 50 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW MRF 20 SSW INK 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 35 ENE DHT 30 S LAA 25 NNE LHX 30 WSW LIC 35 WNW FCL 40 NE RWL 30 NE COD 30 N HVR ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 25 NNE LCH 35 S HEZ 35 WNW ABY 35 NE MCN 30 SSE AND 35 ESE SPA 35 SW SOP 35 SE FAY 15 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN WY INTO WRN SD/NEB PNHDL WITH ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM NRN CO INTO CNTRL SD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD /W OF PIR/ WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT SEWD TO THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THEN SWWD INTO E-CNTRL CO. STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WRN KS NWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE TO CONTINUE EWD/NEWD TONIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF SD AND NEB WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINING CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S OVER SRN NEB INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN KS...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...SC/GA/FL... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINAL HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS NEAR SAV SWWD INTO S-CNTRL GA...AS WELL AS LINGERING SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY E OF TPA. TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 02 OR 03Z WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 04:31:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 23:31:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505180442.j4I4g25J017350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180439 SWODY1 SPC AC 180438 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W FNB 40 SW FOD 30 W ALO 30 E CID 15 SW BRL 25 SSW JEF 25 SSE UMN 10 SE ADM 15 W SPS 30 WSW LTS 45 N CDS 55 SSW GAG 25 WNW P28 25 W FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW JMS 50 WNW JMS 20 ENE DVL 15 N TVF 10 NNE BJI BRD STC 25 W MKT 35 NNW OTG 20 E ATY 55 SSW JMS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LYH 25 E CHO 10 ESE RIC 60 NNE RWI 10 WSW RWI 20 SW RDU 20 S GSO 35 NNW GSO 25 NNW LYH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN 45 NNE GLH 50 NE PBF 25 SW LIT 30 SE PRX 30 S SEP 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 40 WNW CNK 20 WNW OFK 25 ESE HON 35 NE MBG 25 S ISN 60 NNE OLF ...CONT... 10 N CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 45 ESE FCA 20 S 3DU 15 E 27U 30 NE BOI 45 SE BNO 40 WNW 4LW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 10 SSE LEB 10 WNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF IA SWWD INTO OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN ND/NERN SD AND WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND NC... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN WY INTO WRN SD/NEB PNHDL WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES EWD...AND EVENTUALLY SEWD...UNDERCUTTING AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER CNTRL ND AT 18/12Z WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER ERN ND SWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND THEN SWWD INTO NWRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...IA/MO SWWD INTO OK... BAND OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM MN SWWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL IA INTO NERN KS...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO PARTS OF WI AND IL...ALONG EWD-MIGRATING BRANCH OF LLJ. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WITH STRONGEST STORMS POSING A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONAL...MORE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY ALONG THE SRN/SWRN FLANK OF THIS ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX...AS WELL AS FARTHER TO THE W ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS/WRN MO SWWD INTO NRN OK. HERE...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INTO LOWER 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. MODEST WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KTS ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH ANY STORM CLUSTERS THAT CAN FORWARD-PROPAGATE TO THE S OR SE. WWD EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE TX PNHDL INTO NWRN/WRN OK. ...ERN ND INTO MN... THOUGH AREAS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INVOF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL AND SURFACE LOW...LOCALIZED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO VERTICALLY-STACKED SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...HOWEVER RATHER COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...VA/NC... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY 45-55F. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS SHOULD ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ALLOWING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM THE S. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING...AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. HIGHER TERRAIN OF APPALACHIANS AND LEE TROUGH WILL BOTH SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 12:41:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 07:41:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505181252.j4ICqcRB007038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181250 SWODY1 SPC AC 181248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MHK 40 SW FOD ALO 25 ENE CID BRL JEF 25 SSE UMN ADM SPS LTS 40 ESE GAG 40 SSW P28 20 S SLN 35 NNW MHK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIS MOT 40 NNW DVL 15 N TVF 10 NNE BJI BRD STC RWF 40 WSW RWF ATY BIS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SSU SHD RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 30 SW RDU 15 WSW GSO 25 S PSK 35 E SSU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN 45 NNE GLH 50 NE PBF 25 SW LIT 30 SE PRX 30 S SEP 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 40 WNW CNK 10 SSE OLU 15 SE YKN 10 NW MHE 10 NNW 9V9 35 WSW PIR 30 NNW PHP 20 N REJ 70 NNE OLF ...CONT... 10 N CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 45 ESE FCA 20 S 3DU 15 E 27U 30 NE BOI 45 SE BNO 40 WNW 4LW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 10 SSE LEB 10 WNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA/MO SWWD INTO OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AND WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE VA/NC AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO MN TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...TRAILING SWD FROM THIS LOW...EXTENDS SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN WRN ND WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTED FRONT LOCATION BY EVENING IS FROM NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER SWD INTO ERN KS...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ...NWRN MO/KS AND OK... BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA/ EXTREME NRN MO...WHICH WAS BETTER FORECAST BY THE 06Z GFS THAN 06Z NAM. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 700-850 MB THAT HAS INHIBITED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND COOLING AROUND 700 MB...THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ERN KS/NWRN MO AFTER 21Z. STORMS SHOULD BACKBUILD INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY S/SWWD ALONG THE FRONT BACK INTO OK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH NAM DEWPOINTS ARE INITIALIZED 2-4 DEGREES TOO HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 6 KM WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT... THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CLUSTER ORGANIZES A SMALL COLD POOL AND FORWARD PROPAGATES TO THE S OR SE. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS FROM SWLY TO WLY ACROSS THE REGION. ...IA... DUE TO MORNING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...AREA WILL BE SLOWER TO DESTABILIZE. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNTIL AROUND MID EVENING. ...ND AND WRN MN... THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...DRY SLOT PUNCHING NWD FROM SD INTO ERN ND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING. COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ...SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW...BUT THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...VA/NC... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM SC NWD INTO VA WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH THE MOIST AXIS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING STORMS AND THE FORECAST OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-600 MB SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..IMY/ BANACOS.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 16:25:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 11:25:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505181636.j4IGaQfE006958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181634 SWODY1 SPC AC 181632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE PSK 30 S CHO RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 20 SSW RDU 30 SW GSO 45 NE HKY 35 SE PSK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FLV 45 SSE IRK 30 SSW JEF FYV ADM SPS LTS CSM 40 SSW P28 ICT FLV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RST ALO FOD OTG 30 NE ATY 55 NNE ABR DVL 35 N GFK BJI BRD RST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN 45 NNE GLH PBF 45 S HOT 20 NW TYR 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 25 W CNK 15 ENE OLU 15 SE YKN 10 NW MHE 20 NNW 9V9 55 N PHP 40 WSW Y22 45 W DIK 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 10 SSE LEB 10 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 45 ESE FCA 20 S 3DU 15 E 27U 30 NNE BOI 50 SE BNO 55 NNE 4LW 65 NNW 4LW 55 N LMT 30 NNE MFR 35 ENE CEC CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC/VA... ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...WITH SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS. MORNING CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER IA/MO...BUT IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS IL. AIRMASS BEHIND THESE STORMS AND FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF MN/ND SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA BEFORE WEAKENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST OF CNK SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TODAY...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ALONG A TOP-ICT-END LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT IS MORE MOIST THAN RECENT DAYS WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER MOST OF WESTERN OK. THIS GREATER MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ON MORNING SOUNDINGS IS FORECAST TO ERODE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD INTO WESTERN MO...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...VA/NC... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER VA/NC TODAY...WITH MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. NAM DEWPOINT FORECASTS APPEAR OVERDONE. HOWEVER...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND NO CAP. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND WESTERN NC...SPREADING EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. ...FL... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL DATA SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 AT 500MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEST COAST. STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/GUYER.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 19:41:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 14:41:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505181951.j4IJpvsB019633@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181947 SWODY1 SPC AC 181945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW RST 10 E MCW 25 SSW SPW 30 SSE FSD 20 SW ATY 55 NW ABR 60 WSW DVL 70 NE MOT 55 W RRT BJI 35 NW RST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FNB 35 SW LWD 45 SSE IRK 30 SSW JEF FYV 40 W MLC SPS 25 SSW LTS 35 WSW CSM 20 NNE GAG 10 NE HUT 40 WSW FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE PSK 30 S CHO RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 20 SSW RDU 30 SW GSO 45 NE HKY 35 SE PSK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN 45 NNE GLH PBF 45 S HOT 20 NW TYR 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 25 W CNK 15 ENE OLU 15 SE YKN 10 NW MHE 20 NNW 9V9 55 N PHP 40 WSW Y22 45 W DIK 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GON 25 WSW EEN 10 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 35 SSE GTF 40 NW COD 20 SSE JAC 30 WNW MLD 20 WSW ENV 50 E U31 20 ENE NFL 35 ESE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 15 S MFR CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN OK INTO NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN NC INTO CNTRL VA... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... DEEPENING CONVECTION BENEATH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING EWD ACROSS NERN SD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE FROM NWRN IA...INTO NCNTRL ND. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITHIN THIS ZONE AND MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FILL IN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ...MO/KS/OK... EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS APPEARS TO BE THINNING AND SHIFTING SEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS NEAR THE SFC WIND SHIFT IN SWRN KS WHERE CU FIELD IS GRADUALLY THICKENING. WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM JUST AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW...NEWD INTO NERN KS. THIS ZONE SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE...CONVECTIVE-WISE WITH EARLY STORM MODE POSSIBLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH TIME...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW AN MCS TO EVOLVE BEFORE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS/WRN MO INTO NERN OK. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FAVOR LARGE HAIL BEFORE STRONG WINDS BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH MORE LINEAR MODE LATE THIS EVENING. ...VA/NC... STRONG HEATING HAS ALLOWED LOWEST 3 KM LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...ROUGHLY 8-9C/KM. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM WRN VA INTO WRN NC...AND EVEN A MATURING THUNDERSTORM IN SERN VA AT 1930Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...BUT SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 01:04:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 20:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505190115.j4J1FG9h028254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190111 SWODY1 SPC AC 190109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM STC 30 S ALO 25 SSE FOD RWF 35 WNW AXN 35 NNE AXN STC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E STJ 25 SSW UIN VIH 30 SSE UMN TUL 40 SE GAG GAG 40 NE ICT 20 E STJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNE LFT GWO PBF ADM ABI 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 50 SSE DDC FNB 20 ESE OMA 45 E SUX FSD HON ABR BIS P24 70 NNE ISN ...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N EVV 50 ENE DYR 0A8 AUO TRI SSU 40 NNE CHO 35 SW NHK 45 E RWI FLO 25 WNW AYS 45 NNW GNV 55 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 35 SSE GTF 40 NW COD 20 SSE JAC 30 WNW MLD 20 WSW ENV 50 E U31 20 ENE NFL 35 ESE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 15 S MFR CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GON 25 WSW EEN 10 WNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SMALL PART OF MN/IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MO VALLEY TO NWRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... MOST IMPORTANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/ND/SD BORDER JUNCTION. THIS LOW IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS MN TOWARD NWRN WI AND WRN LS OVERNIGHT...AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OZARK PLATEAU. PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN ND...WILL FOLLOW UPPER LOW INTO MN AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD OVER IA/NWRN MO/KS AND SWD ACROSS ERN HIGH PLAINS. DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT OVER NWRN OK AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX. ...S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO KC/TOP AREAS... REF WW 287 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. MOST FAVORABLE TIME WINDOW FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG SFC FRONT IS WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHILE MIXED-LAYER BUOYANCY REMAINS MAXIMIZED. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH 04Z AND STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL ABSOLUTE SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENHANCED LOCALLY THROUGH DISCRETE PROPAGATIONAL EFFECTS. GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SEWD TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING AND FUTURE NERN KS CONVECTION AND TRANSLATE EWD WHILE BACKBUILDING...RESULTING IN NET/SLOW SEWD SHIFT. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG FRONT/DRYLINE AS FAR AS SW OK. HOWEVER....PROBABILITIES DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT BECAUSE OF STRONGER CAPPING AND MORE SHORT-LIVED/ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND/HAIL THREAT. ...UPPER MIDWEST... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS INVOF SFC FRONT. INFLOW SHOULD BE FROM NARROW N-S CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN FRONT AND RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER ERN IA/MN. RECENT FUNNEL/TORNADO REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED IN AREAS OF ENHANCED STRETCHING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC HEATING...ALONG WITH AROUND 100 J/KG SFC-3 KM AGL CAPE. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM NOW ON...THOUGH SOME CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 05:50:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 00:50:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505190600.j4J60oQF021181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190558 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RFD CGX FWA ZZV MGW 20 ESE EKN ROA PSK LOZ BWG 25 SSW CKV TUP 35 NNW GWO PBF HOT PGO ADM OKC END ICT EMP MKC IRK 35 NW MLI RFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 35 ENE AUW DTW 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 20 ESE ECG 35 ESE RWI FLO 40 W SAV 25 SSE AYS 30 ESE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 30 SW GPT 45 E MCB 30 NNE HEZ SHV ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SE P07 25 ESE BGS 55 SSW GAG GAG 30 NNE P28 30 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM ALO MKT 55 SSW FAR 55 NE MBG 81V 40 NNE DGW 55 W BFF LAR RKS 30 ESE MLD 25 NW EKO 40 NNW SVE ACV ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 50 NE MSO 35 SE GTF 50 WSW GGW 55 N GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH VALLEY AND IL TO ERN OK/SERN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FCST TO MOVE NWD FROM NWRN MEX AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER AZ/NM...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING FROM THERE NEWD ACROSS MN. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN -- SHOULD TURN SEWD AND BECOME INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW. BY END OF PERIOD...THIS TROUGH SHOULD CROSS LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN POSITION OF ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER OR VORTICITY MAX IS LOW GIVEN GREAT DEGREE OF SPREAD IN 18/21 SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PROGS AND IN DISAGREEMENT AMONG 19/00Z OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ETA/NGM GUIDANCE. AT SFC...CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER MN IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT...CROSSING NRN IL DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. SECONDARY FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FARTHER E OVER OH/WV...GIVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN-WAVE CHARACTER AND FASTER TRACK OF TROUGH ALOFT. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN IA TO NWRN MO TO SWRN KS SHOULD DRIFT SEWD ACROSS MO/OK THROUGH PERIOD. SRN PLAINS PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TRACK OF MIDWESTERN MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT GEOMETRY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS OVER OUTLOOK AREA...AND ALSO...LOW LEVEL PROPAGATIONAL INFLUENCES ON CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. IN COMBINATION WITH DEPENDENCE ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INFLUENCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MODE AWAY FROM SFC FRONT...BROAD CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS WARRANTED ATTM. ...IL TO MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND OZARKS REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW -- WITH ADJOINING SEGMENTS OF BOTH COLD AND WARM FRONTS BEING MOST LIKELY FOCI. DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLE -- DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON -- SE OF SFC LOW. RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW NEAR WARM FRONT WILL ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLY...GENERATING 0-1 KM SRH OVER 100 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEARS 40-50 KT..AMIDST 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER IL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL EXTENDING SWD AFTER DARK TOWARD OZARKS AND/OR WRN TN/NRN MS REGION. GIVEN PREVAILING/INTENSIFYING NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF MIDWESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SWLY LLJ IN INFLOW REGION...ACTIVITY MAY BUILD WWD AS IT MOVES SWD OR SEWD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN NET SLY OR SSWLY MOTION TO PREFERRED INFLOW REGION OF ANY MCS. SUCH SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI MCS MOTION VECTORS DERIVED FROM ETA WIND FCSTS...AND PROGGED 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAX ACROSS OZARK REGION BY END OF PERIOD. SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT OVER INDIANA/OH/WV DURING DAY...MOVING ESEWD INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER W NEAR MAIN SFC LOW...HOWEVER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...LEWP/BOW FEATURES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...SRN PLAINS... SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL AND TIED TO YET-UNDEVELOPED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ALONG/AHEAD OF RESIDUAL SFC FRONT. ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER SERN KS MAY MOVE SEWD INTO NERN OK BY 19/12Z...PROVIDING ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW RELATED SOURCES OF LATER LIFT...IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AND FRONTOLYSIS UNDERWAY...WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STRONGER CINH WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL OK SWWD ACROSS WRN TX. THIS SHOULD MAKE CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO LATE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING PERIOD NEAR FRONT AND DRYLINE. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR A BRIEF INTERVAL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 12:49:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 07:49:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505191300.j4JD01R2004749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191257 SWODY1 SPC AC 191256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CGX 40 S SBN 40 ENE MIE 25 N UNI 35 SE PKB 35 NE SSU 20 SW ROA 45 SSW BLF 40 NNE TYS 45 W CSV 50 SW BNA 45 S MKL 50 NNE GLH 35 SSW PBF TXK PRX ADM OKC END 20 WNW ICT 30 WNW EMP MKC 35 E IRK MMO 25 SSE CGX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GPT 45 E MCB 30 NNE HEZ SHV ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SE P07 25 ESE BGS 55 SSW GAG GAG 35 SSW MHK 30 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM ALO MKT 55 SSW FAR 55 NE MBG 15 SE 81V 45 NE DGW 55 W BFF LAR RKS 45 NE EKO 35 NW U31 30 ESE TVL 40 WSW TVL 55 NNE SAC 45 E RBL 40 SSW MHS ACV ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 50 NE MSO 35 SE GTF 50 WSW GGW 55 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ECG 35 ESE RWI FLO 40 W SAV 25 SSE AYS 30 ESE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 20 N ELO 35 ENE AUW DTW 20 SE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN OK/KS... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN ERN ND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS IN IL THIS AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD THROUGH NRN MO/ERN KS...AND ACROSS NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH EWD FROM NRN IL ESEWD INTO VA. ...OHIO VALLEY... BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NWRN IND INTO CENTRAL IL IS LOCATED WITHIN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS MAINTAINING DRY ELY FLOW INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AND STORM INTENSIFICATION FROM SRN IL EWD INTO SRN IND/OH AND KY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL. ...IL SWWD MO/AR/ERN KS/ERN OK... ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT IN NRN/CENTRAL IL BY MID LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK CAP IS LIFTED BY INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT AND MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DEEP WLY FLOW ABOVE...INDICATIVE OF MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. CONVECTION IN ERN OK THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL PULLS NEWD OUT OF THE AREA. WITH HEATING... THE AIR MASS ACROSS MO/ERN KS/NWRN AR/ERN OK WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 3000 J/KG. DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT LEFTOVER BOUNDARY FROM OK CONVECTION AND STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS IS ACROSS MO/AR/SRN IL WHERE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW GLANCES AREA. THE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO A SWD MOVING LINE ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT AT THAT TIME. STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED ACROSS OK/KS AS THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...ND... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP ND...WHERE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT INITIATION AS MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT ADDED LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN CASE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BORDER. ..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 16:23:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 11:23:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505191634.j4JGY0Y6005365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191629 SWODY1 SPC AC 191628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N IRK MLI JVL MKE SBN FWA UNI BKW 35 SW BLF TRI CSV MEM PBF TXK PRX ADM OKC END ICT FLV 30 N IRK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GPT 20 SSE MCB 30 WSW HEZ 45 SSW SHV 15 S ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 70 SW P07 35 ESE BGS 40 W CSM 25 ENE GAG 35 SSW MHK 10 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM ALO 20 WNW MKT 50 SSW FAR 55 NE MBG 45 NNE PHP 60 SSW PHP 50 NNE LAR 25 NNW EVW 35 NNE ENV 10 N EKO 55 NNE WMC 70 SSE BNO 40 NE 4LW 30 SSE LMT 45 E ACV ACV ...CONT... 60 NNE FCA 60 S CTB 30 ESE GTF 50 WSW GGW 55 N GGW ...CONT... 25 WSW INL 45 NNE BRD 60 SSW DLH 40 E AUW 15 NE ARB 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 35 SE ECG 35 NNW EWN 15 ESE FLO 25 NW SAV 30 NNW JAX 35 E GNV 40 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS... ...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TODAY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MN/WI...AND TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO IL/MO/OK. AIRMASS FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE A REGION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL AID IN A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF KY/TN BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. PLEASE REFER TO MCD NUMBER 910 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. REMNANT MCS PERSISTS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF IND/OH. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO A RATHER STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS OVER OH AND POSE ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVITY NEAR OH RIVER MAY RE-INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN WV. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN IL...IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAP AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN SURGING SOUTHWARD BY THAT TIME...FOCUSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST ACROSS MO/IL AND EASTERN KS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. WESTWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO STRONGER CAP/WEAKER FORCING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN OUTLOOK AREA BASED ON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THIS AREA. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... WIDESPREAD MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE TN VALLEY...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...INTO THE CAROLINAS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 19:59:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 14:59:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505192010.j4JKAW8n019376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192004 SWODY1 SPC AC 192002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PRX 20 NNW DUA 30 SSE OKC 25 SSE END 30 NW PNC 20 SE EMP 40 SW IRK 15 SSW CID 35 W DBQ 25 SSW LNR 20 SSW MKE 40 W FDY 10 S CMH 15 WSW CRW 25 ENE 5I3 25 SSW 5I3 10 NW CSV PBF TXK 10 NE PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW INL 35 WSW HIB 55 S DLH 40 SE MTW 10 SW CLE 15 SSE MRB 15 SE SBY ...CONT... 30 SW CRE 20 N CHS 25 NW SAV 30 NNW JAX 30 ENE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 30 SW GPT 20 SSE MCB 30 WSW HEZ 45 SSW SHV 15 S ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSW P07 10 NW BGS 25 NNW CDS 25 WSW P28 20 E SLN 35 NE MHK 35 WSW LWD 25 WNW DSM FRM 50 N ATY 55 ENE MBG 20 SSW MBG 25 WSW PHP 30 SW DGW 50 WNW OGD 60 NE SVE 15 WSW EKA ...CONT... 60 NNE FCA 55 SSW CTB 20 SE GTF 25 NE LWT 25 WSW GGW 55 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER WI MOVING SEWD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXISTS FROM NRN IL EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IND. STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEED 40 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TORNADO THREAT ENHANCED IN CNTRL AND SRN IND WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREATS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAKER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH A TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE...MOVING SEWD ACROSS KY AND TN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE NEB WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NORTH TX EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN KS. ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL MO...SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SSEWD INTO ERN OK AND ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING IN SE KS SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 45 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE STORMS INITIATE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY ...VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREATS. ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 00:57:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 19:57:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505200108.j4K18VOc027951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200104 SWODY1 SPC AC 200102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSS RMG 40 S MSL TUP UOX 40 SW JBR UNO TBN JEF 25 NW UIN PIA RFD 35 ENE RFD CGX 25 SE CGX 10 E SBN CMH UNI 30 E 5I3 HSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 40 NNW CEW LUL HEZ 30 NNE SHV PRX 30 WNW ADM 45 SW END ICT MKC MLI LNR MSN MKG MTC DUJ DOV 40 E SBY ...CONT... 45 SSW CHS SAV 30 ESE AYS GNV 50 W ORL SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 N GFK GFK 50 NW ABR PHP DGW 50 S TWF OWY BNO RDM EUG 40 NW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF INDIANA/IL SEWD TO SRN APPALACHIANS AND SWWD TO ERN OZARK REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE REMAINS ANTICYCLONE OVER SWRN DESERTS --- WITH RIDGE NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILDING E OF THAT RIDGE...PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW NOW OVER WI/IL BORDER REGION WILL MOVE SEWD...CROSSING OH VALLEY AT INDIANA/KY BORDER BY END OF PERIOD. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN AND VEER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NWLY OR NNWLY OVER MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AT SFC...VERY COMPLEX PATTERN IS ANALYZED AND ONLY SUMMARIZED HERE. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LOOSELY EXTENDS FROM LOWER CHESAPEAKE/TIDEWATER REGION WNWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INDIANA TO SFC LOW OVER NRN IL...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NERN MO...NERN KS AND SWRN NEB. SFC CYCLONE SHOULD REDEVELOP EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER WV LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT REVERSING COURSE AND MOVING OVER KY AS COLD FRONT -- REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. NUMEROUS MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED BETWEEN NRN/WRN NC AND NRN IL...EFFECTIVELY ADJUSTING FRONTAL ZONE SWD IN SEGMENTED FASHION. VERY WEAK/RESIDUAL FRONT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY FROM SRN IL WSWWD ACROSS OZARKS TO SWRN KS AND N-CENTRAL OK...INTERSECTING DRYLINE OVER NWRN OK. ...GREAT LAKES STATES...LOWER OH AND MID MS VALLEYS... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL FROM NERN TN/ERN KY NWWD INTO IL. REF FOLLOWING SPC WATCHES -- 289..290...292...293...294 -- ALONG WITH LATEST RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR SHORT-TERM FCST DETAILS ON THIS SITUATION. TWO MCS SCENARIOS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE ATTM... 1. EVOLUTION OF LARGE KY CLUSTER AND SEWD MOTION ACROSS REMAINDER CENTRAL/ERN KY AND ERN TN...SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING SWD AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH TIME. 2. ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA MAY BACKBUILD WWD AS IT MOVES SEWD...RESULTING IN NET SWD MOTION IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LAST SEVERAL ETA RUNS OF CORFIDI MCS MOTION VECTORS. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS REMAINDER IL/INDIANA INTO WRN KY/TN AND PERHAPS ERN MO...ALONG AND W OF OUTFLOW FROM NUMBER 1. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT CONSIDERING VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS EVIDENT IN ILX RAOB. SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE EVIDENT FARTHER S FROM OZARKS TO TN VALLEY...S OF WEAK/SRN FRONT...WITH MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG. ...SRN PLAINS... WEAK CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING HAVE PRECLUDED ORGANIZED/DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/S OF WEAK SRN FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE...DESPITE POCKETS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID 60S-LOW 70S F DEW POINTS. ISOLATED AND VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER ERN OK...ESPECIALLY INVOF RESIDUAL N-S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUGGEST PROBABILITIES HAVE MARGINALIZED TO BELOW CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS. ....NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS. AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL BUOYANCY BECAUSE OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND RELATIVELY DRY SFC DEW POINTS 40S/50S F. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY GOES AWAY IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS WITH LOSS OF 2-3 DEG C SFC TEMPS. SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...BUT THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL UPGRADE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 05:51:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 00:51:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505200601.j4K61od6017614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200558 SWODY1 SPC AC 200557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI AXN BKX MHE 9V9 RAP 81V GCC SHR BIL 3HT LWT ISN MOT 75 NNW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S GPT MCB HEZ MLU 40 W GLH 35 ENE JBR 40 W HOP BWG CSV CHA RMG ATL MCN ABY AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ELO MSP FOD FNB SLN 40 SSW DDC EHA LHX 4FC OWY 4LW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 25 ESE CLL 50 W TYR 45 N PRX 45 SE TBN MVN CMH AOO ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MOST PROMINENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE SHARPLY DEFINED RIDGE FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS MN AND CENTRAL PLAINS....TO HIGH OVER SRN NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA. MEANWHILE BROAD UPPER CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD RETROGRADE WWD/SWWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN MARITIMES LOW AND CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN IL -- WILL ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE WA/ORE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...REACHING CENTRAL/ERN MT BY 21/12Z. SFC PATTERN WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE JUMBLED THAN THAT ALOFT...ESPECIALLY E OF MS RIVER. ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FROM ERN KY TO NRN TN...AND APCHG LOWER OH VALLEY FROM IL/INDIANA -- WILL STRONGLY INFLUENCE/ADJUST LOCATION OF DAY-1 SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH RESULTANT OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS MIDLEVEL MCV FEATURES. SYNOPTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NW-FLOW SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE SWD OVER MID-SOUTH AND OZARKS REGION...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY NWWD ACROSS KS/NEB...THEN WARM FRONT OVER DAKOTAS...CONNECTING WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. SFC LOW DEEPENING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER ERN MT/NERN WY AREA BENEATH SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND W OF MEAN RIDGE POSITION. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL INCLUDE STRONG WAA ACROSS NRN PLAINS THROUGHOUT PERIOD...AND 50-60 KT LLJ AFTER DARK OVER PORTIONS DAKOTAS. ...TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE GULF COAST... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE FEATURES YET TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GREATEST COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS PROGGED FROM MID TN SWD INTO CENTRAL/WRN AL AND NERN/E-CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AND/OR PERSIST/INTENSIFY FROM MORNING ACTIVITY...WITH STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT RESULTING IN SWD MOTION ACROSS REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS MID 60S F...WITH POCKETS INTO LOW 70S...WILL COMBINE WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLY LARGE LOW LEVEL FCST HODOGRAPH YIELD 0-1 KM AGL SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 J/KG...FROM CENTRAL AL TO SRN MID TN. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RIGHTWARD DEVIANCE ALONG BOUNDARIES AND LOW LCL...INDICATE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE STORMS. SHEAR/BUOYANCY PROFILES ALSO WILL SUPPORT SWD TO SSWWD MOVING MCS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS GULF COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN MT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF WRN ND/NWRN SD THIS AFTERNOON...IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS BOTH ARE POSSIBLE. MCS FROM EVENING ONWARD MAY CONCENTRATE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL REMAINING A THREAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY WEAKNESS INITIALLY. SFC DEW POINTS 40S/50S F AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD YIELD HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS...SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF SEVERE HAIL/DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD OFFSET LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH TO YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPES...THOUGH CAPPING MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF DAYTIME TSTMS. SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 40-50 KT WSW FLOW AT 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEARS AS HIGH AS 65-75 KT. FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE BACKED FROM WRN DAKOTAS WNWWD INTO ERN MT...AROUND NRN SEMICIRCLE OF SFC CYCLONE...YIELDING LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-3 KM SRH POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 200 J/KG. STRONG AND REASONABLE SIGNAL EXISTS IN SEVERAL SHORT-RANGE MODELS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21/00Z -- PROBABLY EVOLVING FROM ERN MT/WRN ND CONVECTION DURING EVENING AND ORGANIZING INTO WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING SYSTEM ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ACCOMPANY INTENSIFYING LLJ...ALLOWING FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AMIDST ENVIRONMENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ...SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT TO CAROLINAS COASTAL PLAIN... SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON -- BUT THREAT IS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WV...TN AND ERN KY SHOULD BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE/REINTENSIFY..OR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER THIS AREA. FOREGOING AIR MASS ACROSS PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST COMPARED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FARTHER W...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER SRN GA ADVECTING NEWD INTO THIS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DIURNAL SFC HEATING OVER ANY RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS...YIELDING MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX...AND/OR ACTIVITY FARTHER SW ACROSS MS/AL/TN -- MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING. ALSO...PROGGED WEAKNESS OF LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 12:36:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 07:36:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505201247.j4KClEMM028447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201245 SWODY1 SPC AC 201243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI AXN BKX MHE 9V9 RAP 81V GCC SHR BIL 3HT 10 N LWT 70 NE LWT 25 NNW MOT 75 NNW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E JAX 25 W CTY ...CONT... 30 S GPT 40 ESE MCB 20 S HEZ MLU 40 W GLH 20 ESE JBR 20 S PAH 20 E CKV 60 SSE TYS 45 WNW CAE 30 S FLO 40 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ELO MSP FOD 25 S OLU 25 SE MCK 20 NNE AKO 15 NE RWL 65 NW ENV 4LW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 40 SSW LFK 25 SW GGG 25 N TXK 45 NNE LIT 40 SW EVV 55 ESE LUK AOO ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN HI PLNS AND THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT SWRN STATES RIDGE WILL EXPAND SOMEWHAT NWD AND EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS COMPACT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEAR EVV CONTINUES SSE TO NEAR SAV. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING THE NRN CA/SRN ORE CST EXPECTED TO SWEEP ENE INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NRN HI PLNS ON SATURDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF GRT BASIN SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NRN HI PLNS TODAY. THE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL ND BY 12Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN PLNS...EXTENDING GENERALLY SSE FROM THE ND LOW. OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS. BY MID MORNING...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND IN A BROKEN ARC FROM NE NC TO SE GA. ANOTHER SEGMENT SHOULD REACH FROM NE GA INTO NRN AL. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ...LWR TN VLY SSE TO MIDDLE/ERN GULF CST... COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF TN/MS/AL AND GA. WLY LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW S OF BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO REGION...AND WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 - 8.0 DEG C PER KM/ AT MID LEVELS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING NNWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SHEAR AND CREATE A SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO WIND PROFILES. THUS...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SSE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME OF TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY ASSUME A LINEAR MODE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ASSOCIATED LEWPS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WILL YIELD LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. AT THE SAME TIME... REGION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND LIKELY WILL BE ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. THUS EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY S AND E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. WHILE THESE LATTER STORMS WILL ALSO ORGANIZE INTO LINES...SOME MAY REMAIN DISCRETE LONG ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND. WITH TIME...ALL OF THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE SSE-MOVING MCS. THIS SYSTEM MAY BACKBUILD SOMEWHAT W INTO SRN MS/SE LA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS ERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...ATL SEABOARD FROM NE SC TO SE VA... DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF ABOUT MYR IN WAKE OF ESE-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW CROSSING THE COASTAL PLN. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...NRN HI PLNS/NRN PLNS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL FORM WITH SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL AND SE MT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP A BIT LATER EWD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO WRN ND AND PERHAPS NW SD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO 40+ KT WSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH MEAN SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN S CNTRL MT TO AROUND 60 INVOF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN ND/NRN SD. BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...AND COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2000 J/KG. THUS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM. INCREASINGLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN SE MT. PERSISTENT FORCING PROVIDED BY BOTH DCVA WITH GRT BASIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION IN THE NRN PLNS...SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS OVER ND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND FOSTERS FORWARD PROPAGATION. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 15:54:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 10:54:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505201605.j4KG54CN012110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201554 SWODY1 SPC AC 201552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI AXN BKX MHE 9V9 RAP 81V GCC SHR BIL 3HT 10 N LWT 70 NE LWT 25 NNW MOT 75 NNW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S GPT 40 ESE MCB 20 S HEZ MLU 40 W GLH 35 SSW DYR 40 NE MKL 25 NW BNA 60 SSE TYS 15 WNW CAE 10 SSE FLO 10 SW ILM ...CONT... 10 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 15 NNE STC 30 SSW SPW 10 ESE OFK 15 ENE LBF 45 WNW CDR 20 WNW CPR 55 ESE OWY 40 E 4LW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HUM 15 ESE POE 35 NNE TYR 40 NNE ADM 25 NE TUL 25 SSE JBR 30 N LEX 25 SSW SHD WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SWRN U.S. WILL EXPAND EWD INTO PLAINS TODAY AS A FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS PAC NW TO NRN PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD. S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF SERN COAST TO NERN GULF BY 12Z SAT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM DELMARVA WWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF PAC NW S/WV WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SERN MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING ACROSS DAKOTAS TONIGHT. ...SERN STATES... A WARM AND MOIST SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDES TN VALLEY S/WV AND WEAK COOL FRONT. BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NOW INTO NRN GA/AL WILL FOCUS RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND ANY CAPPING DISSIPATES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD AHEAD OF COOL FRONT WRN TN. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE MULTICELL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SHORT LINES/BOWS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD NERN GULF COAST THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD ENHANCING SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION. ...NRN PLAINS... AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS VICINITY SERN MT/WY BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF S/W APPROACHING FROM THE W... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WRN DAKOTAS AND ERN MT. WITH 50 SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY AVAILABLE IN THIS AREA...STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO GENERATE MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN DAKOTAS. VEERING HODOGRAPHS WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ONCE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS INITIATED. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ERN MT 21-00Z PERIOD WITH STORMS THEN TRACKING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO OVERNIGHT MCS WHICH WILL CONTINUE DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS ND/NRN SD. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 19:57:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 14:57:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505202008.j4KK8Uw0031057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202001 SWODY1 SPC AC 202000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W INL 45 WNW BRD 25 ESE BKX 20 W FSD 60 SSW MHE 20 NNE VTN 35 NW RAP 50 NNE SHR 55 ENE BIL 75 E LWT 65 SW GGW 20 WNW OLF 60 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW MOB 25 W GPT 15 W MCB 30 ESE MLU 15 W GLH 40 WSW UOX 10 W MSL 50 WNW AHN 20 E ILM ...CONT... 15 ENE JAX 25 NNE CTY 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL STC 30 SSW SPW OFK 35 NNW BBW 25 W MHN 60 NE DGW 35 NNE CPR 25 E RIW 35 WNW RKS 20 SW OGD 65 NW ENV 80 SE BNO 25 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW BVE 30 W HUM POE 15 E GGG 25 ESE PRX 30 SSW PGO 50 NW LIT 35 NE DYR 35 E BWG 20 ESE JKL 20 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN US... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SERN US... THREE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES ARE ONGOING ACROSS AL..GA AND SC. THE LINES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MS EXTENDING ESEWD TO SRN SC WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD THIS EVENING...THE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST ASCENT LOCATED ACROSS GA WHERE THE LARGEST CONVECTIVE LINE IS LOCATED. A MOIST AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC AND THIS COMBINED WITH VEERED SFC WINDS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE LINE MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GA AND SRN SC. FARTHER WEST IN CNTRL AL AND ERN MS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES PARTIALLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL JET NOSING SWD THROUGH THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN 850 MB JET IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER CNTRL AL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN MS...SRN AR AND NRN LA...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NRN WY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW SD AND CNTRL ND. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STRONG ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F AND SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS NEAR THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. BACKED SFC WINDS IN SERN MT AND SWRN ND WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND TRACK ENEWD NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AS STRONG ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL CONTINUING THROUGH LATE EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO FAR WRN MN LATE. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 01:05:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 20:05:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505210116.j4L1GRpM024956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210113 SWODY1 SPC AC 210111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 30 SE AXN FSD 60 SSW MHE 35 NNE CDR GCC 40 NW COD 35 WNW 3HT 60 ENE LWT 55 NNW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX GNV 30 S CTY ...CONT... 30 S BVE 35 N LFT 55 WSW MLU ELD 30 NE ELD MGM 40 ESE MCN 45 SSE AGS 20 ESE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL STC SPW OFK 35 NNW BBW MHN 60 NE DGW 35 NNE CPR RIW BPI OGD 65 NW ENV 45 ENE EUG CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM LFT POE SHV HOT PBF HSV 15 NW TYS 20 NNW HKY FAY HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DAKOTAS....ERN MT...NERN WY...WRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE RIDGE -- EXTENDING FROM SERN AZ/SWRN NM NEWD ACROSS MN TO HUDSON BAY AREA -- REMAINS DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE. BELT OF NNWLY TO NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF ERN CONUS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND GA. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE CAROLINAS COAST BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WSWLY JET CORE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM PACIFIC NW ENEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER WA/ORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS WRN MT TONIGHT. AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE OVER SERN CONUS HAS BEEN MODULATED BY COLLECTIVE SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURVING FROM OFFSHORE SC WWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS GA/AL...WITH SFC TROUGH WWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN MS. FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED NWWD OVER OZARKS THEN NNWWD TOWARD MN/DAKOTAS BORDER REGION. SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NERN ND SWWD TO EXTREME NWRN SD...NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF WELL DEFINED SUPERCELL...THEN STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER WSWWD INTO LEE-SIDE CYCLONE OVER EXTREME N-CENTRAL WY. SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS ND TONIGHT...WITH FRONT STALLING 100-150 NM TO ITS ENE. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM NRN WY LOW ESEWD TO SWRN PERIPHERY OF BLACK HILLS...THEN SSEWD INTO WRN KS. ...SERN CONUS... SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW/TROUGH BOUNDARIES...MOVING SWD TOWARD GULF COAST. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...AND CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR GIVEN NLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. REF SPC WWS 302...304 AND 306 -- ALONG WITH RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS -- FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER APPROXIMATELY 06Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE...AND AS ANY REMAINING INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER NOT AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS STABILIZES FROM DIABATIC SFC COOLING EFFECTS. ...NRN PLAINS... TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE 1. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ERN ND/NWRN MN BETWEEN FRONTS...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS...AND 2. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM NWRN SD ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR RELATED TO BACKED FLOW ALONG/BEHIND FRONT. MT ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN OR BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES INTO POCKET OF MINIMIZED SFC THETAE ANALYZED NEAR GDV. MEANWHILE DAMAGING HAIL/WIND ARE DISTINCT THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY...AND TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REF SPC WWS 303/305 AND LATEST ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO REMAIN OPTIMIZED ALONG BOTH FRONTS...ENHANCING SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AS LONG AS ACTIVITY REMAINS DISCRETE. MCS IS FCST TO EVOLVE FROM WRN ND/NWRN SD AREA ENEWD ACROSS MAINLY ND TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. BOTH AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL STRADDLE AXIS OF 50-60 KT LLJ AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM-RELATIVE FLOWS JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW -- WRN COMPLEX SHOULD POSE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK. ...SRN ID... COMBINATION OF DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF WA/ORE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. MODIFIED BOI RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER BENEATH 400-700 J/KG MLCAPE..AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WHEN SFC COOLING REMOVES MOST MLCAPE AND STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 05:48:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 00:48:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505210559.j4L5x3sx003225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210557 SWODY1 SPC AC 210555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 35 E AUW DBQ 35 SSE IRK SGF UMN BVO 35 NE ICT HUT 45 NNE DDC HLC 30 ESE BBW 50 SW YKN ATY FAR DVL 80 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB ORH 10 WSW BID ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF LYH 25 ENE SSU 30 W MGW YNG 25 NNE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB CEW ABY 30 WSW CHS 30 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE ANJ LAN BMG POF 20 WSW PBF 45 SE PGO 10 WNW MLC OKC AMA 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 15 WSW DEN 15 NW FCL CYS SNY 40 SSW ANW 9V9 45 NNE MBG MLS 40 NE LWT 25 N HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER-MID MO VALLEY...CENTRAL/NERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE -- EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWRN NM/SERN AZ. MEAN RIDGE WILL BE PENETRATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WA/ORE/ID. BY 22/00Z...THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW OVER SRN MB -- WITH ROUGHLY 130 KT UPPER JET ACROSS PORTIONS MT/DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW SHOULD TURN SEWD TOWARD NRN MN BY END OF PERIOD. AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW DEEPENING OVER SERN MT/NERN WY WILL LIFT NEWD AND BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH UPPER LOW EARLY IN PERIOD...AS SFC COLD FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN. FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB AND SWD OVER ERN CO...REACHING WI...NWRN MO...AND S-CENTRAL/SWRN KS BY 22/12Z. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW- REINFORCED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD ACROSS NRN FL. NWRN SEGMENT OF SAME FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND NEARLY MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED FROM SRN MO ACROSS WRN IA INTO SRN MN. ...CENTRAL/NERN PLAINS... SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD BETWEEN ERN SD AND NERN ND...WITH WIND DAMAGE MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON INVOF COLD FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 AND 0-3 KM SRH ABOVE 150 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60-70 KT OVER W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BE NEAR CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH MAY HELP TO OFFSET EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AGAINST LOW LEVEL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WIND...A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...CAP STRENGTH WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN LATER AND PERHAPS MORE DISCRETE SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA HAS GREATEST PROBABILITY OF DEEP SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. MEAN WIND WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY NORMAL TO ORIENTATION OF FORCING BOUNDARY...INDICATING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS FOR LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME. MOST FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND FOREGOING QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...FROM SRN MN SWD. SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE MID 50S TO MID 60S F OVER MOST OF THIS ZONE...WHICH WILL BE INFLOW REGION FOR ANY NEAR-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. FCST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS WRN IA -- INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT -- INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG...AMIDST 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STRENGTHENING CAP AND WEAKENING SHEAR FARTHER SW INTO SERN NEB AND NRN/WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY REDUCED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE PROBABILITIES. MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK IN REGION FROM WRN/CENTRAL IA SWD THROUGH MO VALLEY TOWARD NWRN MO/NERN KS...NEAR NOSE OF 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. PROGGED MCS MOTION VECTORS FROM LATEST ETA AND ETA-KF RUNS INDICATE SWWD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WITH SSEWD STEERING FLOW...WITH NET MOTION GENERALLY SWD ACROSS MO AND/OR ERN KS. ELEVATED MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN INFLOW REGION. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE. MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION THAN PROGGED BY ETA/SPECTRAL WOULD RESULT IN FASTER/MORE SLY MOTION...THEREFORE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OZARKS. ...NRN/ERN FL... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INVOF RESIDUAL FRONT AND SEA BREEZE. E COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO SHORE GIVEN PREVAILING PREFRONTAL WLYS IN BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN NEGATIVE EFFECT OF THOSE WLYS ON CONVERGENCE AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR....ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES POSSIBLE. MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIOD INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. ..EDWARDS/TAYLOR.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 12:43:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 07:43:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505211253.j4LCrc6c006257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211249 SWODY1 SPC AC 211248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 35 E AUW DBQ 25 SW BRL 15 NNE TBN 10 SSE SGF 30 WNW JLN HUT 45 NNE DDC 15 NW HLC 25 NNW GRI 30 SW YKN ATY FAR DVL 80 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF LYH 25 ENE SSU 30 W MGW YNG 25 NNE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB ORH 10 WSW BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE APN 15 N FNT 50 N SDF 25 NNW DYR 50 SW ARG 45 NNW HOT 40 SSW TUL 35 NW PNC 30 N LBL 30 ESE RTN 45 SW PUB 40 NW COS 15 NW FCL 15 ESE CYS SNY 40 SSW ANW 30 SW 9V9 35 NW MBG 30 SSE DIK 25 ENE GDV 50 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB CEW 30 SW ABY 30 NNE AYS 30 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY SWD INTO THE MID/LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT SWRN STATES RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION THIS PERIOD AS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE NRN HI PLNS CONTINUES E ACROSS ND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SOMEWHAT S OF E LATER IN THE PERIOD AS BLOCK HOLDS FIRM OVER NRN QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL ND SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES TOWARD LK WINNIPEG LATER TODAY/EARLY SUNDAY. NRN PART OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E INTO WRN MN BY THIS EVENING...AND INTO WI/NW IL BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MORE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE MORE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE MID AND LWR MO VLYS. BLOCKING PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP N/S WARM FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPR MS VLY...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME NEWD ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. ...CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... MCS WITH EMBEDDED MCV NOW OVER NERN ND HAS MOVED BEYOND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT HEADS ENE TO THE INL AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS EXTENDING S FROM THE MCV INTO IA SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY E WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF THE WA/ORE CST HAS UNDERGONE STRONG DEEPENING OVERNIGHT. THIS...IN TURN... SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM NRN PLNS IMPULSE. AS A RESULT...STOUT CAP WILL LIKELY PERSIST...AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN...OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY REGION S OF ASSOCIATED JET MAX CROSSING THE NRN PLNS. SEWD ADVANCE OF NRN PLNS COLD FRONT...AND PRECIPITATION INTO DRY CP AIR MASS ADVECTING NWWD FROM THE MID MS VLY...WILL KEEP AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER SLIGHT RISK AREA VERY CONFINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVERAGE DEWPOINTS SHOULD...NEVERTHELESS... RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S LATER TODAY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A NARROW AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO KS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION FROM THE RED RVR VLY SWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA. COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...EXPECT THAT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR FROM N TO S ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP W TO NWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA. WHILE LINEAR FORCING OF COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN MN...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS. THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE NEB/NW IA...AS CAP IS BREACHED IN REGION OF MAXIMUM SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM IN ERN NEB/IA AND NRN MO LATER THIS EVENING AS SEWD TURN OF NRN PLNS IMPULSE LOWERS HEIGHTS ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT COULD EXTEND A RISK FOR HIGH WIND S/SW INTO CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF KS/MO EARLY SUNDAY. ..NRN/ERN FL... SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF RESIDUAL COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PART OF THE STATE AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. E COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO SHORE GIVEN PREVAILING PREFRONTAL WLYS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW TO MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK....AND MORNING RAOBS SHOW RATHER LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES. THUS...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AS AVERAGE MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 16:19:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 11:19:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505211630.j4LGUPh7009927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211622 SWODY1 SPC AC 211620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 35 E AUW DBQ 25 SW BRL 15 NNE TBN 10 SSE SGF 30 WNW JLN HUT 45 NNE DDC 15 NW HLC 25 NNW GRI 30 SW YKN ATY 15 W FAR 35 WSW GFK 45 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 25 E ISP ...CONT... 20 SSE ORF 20 SSE CHO 25 E PIT 55 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 20 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 40 WSW SDF 25 NNW DYR OKC 40 SW GAG EHA 15 SE IML 20 NNE ANW 20 N MBG 75 WNW MLS 50 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGHS MOVING IN THE STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SWRN U.S. WHILE IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS FOR MAY HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT OFF THE PAC NW COAST...THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM ALSO IS INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS EWD ALONG CANADIAN/NCENTRAL U.S. BORDER. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ND WILL DEEPEN NEWD INTO SRN MANITOBA TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW CENTRAL DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB. WITH SUPPORT FROM A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX TO NEAR 90KT AT 500MB CROSSING ERN MT...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO ERN NEB AND TRAILING WWD INTO ERN CO BY THIS EVENING. COLD UPPER LOW VICINITY SRN NEW ENGLAND MOVES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...NE/IA/KS/MO... MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS ELEVATED MIX LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE TRANSPORT...GIVEN THE OBSERVED DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 60S F ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS FAR N AS ERN NEB/WRN IA. EROSION OF THE EXISTING STRONG CAP WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON THRU STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF COLD FRONT ERN NEB. TIMING OF INITIATION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE CAP ERODES...AND ATTM STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 22Z. VERY LARGE HAIL TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL...WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY HIGH LCL'S IN THE VERY WARM AIR MASS. SEVERE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A S/SEWD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT...FEEDING ON THE CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF UNSTABLE AIRMASS THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BECOME PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO NERN KS/MO AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN MN DURING AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT HEATING LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE AS OVERNIGHT MCS DEBRIS MOVES ON TO THE E TO ALLOW FOR GOOD SURFACE HEATING INTO WRN MN. COMBINATION OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND HEATING...AGAIN THE STRONG CAP THIS MORNING NOTED ON ABR SOUNDING SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE ALLOWING STORM INITIATION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT VICINITY ND/MN BORDER. WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY THIS AREA...THE LOWER LCL'S AND GREATER SHEAR SUPPORT AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOS ALONG WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MORE LINEAR CONVECTION MODE DURING EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING PRIMARY THREAT. ...MID ATLANTIC... UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WRN NY/NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. SFC AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES / -20 TO -24 DEG C AT 500 MB / ABOVE THIS LOW LEVEL PROFILE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...500 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. 12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S OVER NRN VA/MD AND DE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND NAMKF DO NOT SHOW THIS. IF THESE CONDITIONS DO INDEED OCCUR...SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT AND SVR HAIL PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT THESE WILL NOT BE INCLUDED ATTM. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 20:05:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 15:05:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505212015.j4LKFfwM014158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212001 SWODY1 SPC AC 211959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CMX 35 ESE AUW 40 N PIA 25 SW STL 25 SSE TBN 10 SSW UMN 30 ENE PNC 10 NNE P28 35 SSW RSL 40 E HLC 10 NW HSI 30 N OFK 20 SE BKX 65 S FAR 40 WNW GFK 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 35 SW NHK 10 ENE CHO 25 SSE MGW 10 NNW PIT 30 NNW ERI ...CONT... 30 WNW EFK 25 ENE LEB ORH 20 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW ANJ 25 WNW BEH 30 SE MVN 40 SE POF 55 NW LIT 25 N MLC 25 WSW OKC 45 SW GAG 25 SW LBL 45 N EHA 50 S GLD 35 N GLD 45 E ANW 20 SE HON 35 WNW ATY 35 W JMS 50 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 20 SE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU... ...MN/WI/ERN DAKOTAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO ERN ND. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MN REACHING WI BY LATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS WRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN MN AND THIS SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. AS SBCAPE VALUES INCREASE AND STRONG ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL MN THIS EVENING. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO WI LATER TONIGHT...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. ...ERN NEB/IA/KS/MO... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM SRN KS EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN NEB WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF EXPANDING CUMULUS. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP IN ERN NEB AND SPREAD SEWD INTO SW IA AND FAR NE KS. PROFILERS IN NE NEB CURRENTLY SHOW 45 KTS AT 6 KM WHICH IS CREATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN SE NEB AND NE KS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS. A STORM CLUSTER SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINEAR MCS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY HELP SUSTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MCS TRACKS INTO CNTRL MO AND SE KS. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 00:57:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 19:57:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505220107.j4M17gew013810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220103 SWODY1 SPC AC 220101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RSL 35 W LNK 20 E OFK 25 S FSD 25 NNE FSD FRM ALO BRL 45 WNW STL TBN UMN TUL END 40 SSW RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE 7R4 HUM 25 WSW BVE 35 S BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CTY DAB ...CONT... 55 SSW MIA 45 W PBI 20 WSW AGR 15 SSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 45 N SHD LBE 30 ENE FKL 25 ESE ROC UCA 35 SE GFL 20 ENE BDL 25 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCS 85 NW TCS GNT ABQ 40 SW 4CR TCS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE MQT MTW MKE CGX LAF IND 35 S BMG EVV POF FSM 55 WNW MLC GAG LBL GCK 35 E GRI FSD 45 W AXN FAR P24 65 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN IA/WRN MO... ...SYNOPSIS... SFC AND UPPER AIR CHARTS ARE DOMINATED SYNOPTICALLY BY THREE DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC...VERTICALLY STACKED...NRN-STREAM CYCLONES -- CENTERED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWRN MANITOBA...AND OFFSHORE VANCOUVER ISLAND. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SWRN NM DOMINATES PATTERN ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS. AT SFC...OCCLUDED FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWD TO SWRN MN..COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS ERN NEB...N-CENTRAL KS AND SERN CO. EXPECT COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MN AND MUCH OF IA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AND SEWD INTO NWRN MO AND S-CENTRAL KS. STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...LEFT BEHIND BY E COAST SYSTEM...EXTENDS SWD FROM SWRN MN ACROSS EXTREME WRN IA...SSEWD ACROSS MKC AREA INTO OZARKS. THIS FEATURE MAY DRIFT EWD BEFORE BEING CAUGHT BY COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT OVER IA...AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER OZARKS. IN BETWEEN THESE FRONTS...DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. WRN DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER N-CENTRAL KS SWWD TO OK PANHANDLE THEN GENERALLY SWD ACROSS W TX. ERN DRYLINE -- FROM EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB SWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK -- DENOTES BOUNDARY BETWEEN SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S W OF STATIONARY FRONT...AND MORE STRONGLY HEATED/MIXED AIR MASS WITH 50S F DEW POINTS OVER WRN PORTIONS OK/KS. ERN DRYLINE HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE OVER OK...A TREND THAT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY OVER KS UNTIL BOTH DRYLINES ARE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... REF SPC WW 311 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO. LINE OF HIGH BASED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS...ALONG SFC FRONT AND BETWEEN DRYLINES WHERE FRONTAL ASCENT AND INTENSE HEATING/MIXING HAVE REALIZED 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED DDC RAOB. FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...OUTLOOK REMAINS STRONGLY CONDITIONAL. STRONG/DEEP CAPPING LAYER EVIDENT FOR ML PARCELS IN 00Z OAX/TOP RAOBS IS GREATLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION. ANY SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT NEXT 1-2 HOURS -- BEFORE NEAR-SFC LAYER DIABATICALLY STABILIZES -- LIKELY REQUIRES LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN FRONTAL ASCENT. AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...SEVERE GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES...GIVEN A SUSTAINED TSTM. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY OVER AND E OF WARM/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR MCS TO EVOLVE FROM KS ACTIVITY AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG/E OF WARM/STATIONARY FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED FARTHER N WHERE OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AIR MASS. ISOLATED HAIL STILL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY ELEVATED ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT ANTICIPATED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 05:46:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 00:46:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505220556.j4M5uS4J015208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220554 SWODY1 SPC AC 220552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW ANJ PLN DTW CMH HTS JKL LOZ BNA MEM HOT 40 S MLC FSI CSM GAG P28 25 NNW JLN TBN BLV MTO LAF SBN MKG MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV MGM 45 NW JAN 40 NNW MWL BGS INK 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 20 NW ELP 30 WSW 4CR ABQ 30 SSE GUC 25 WSW 4FC 40 SW LAR DGW 50 WNW CDR 25 SW CDR SNY 10 NW GLD 55 NW GCK SLN OJC 45 WNW STL 25 WSW DEC BMI 80 NNW CMX ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 15 SW CAK 45 E LYH 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30 S AGR MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OK TO LOWER OH VALLEY...THEN NWD OVER PORTIONS MI... ...SYNOPSIS... MOST PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SWRN NM...AND PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND. UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN MB/NERN ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO TURN SEWD OUT OF LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION AND ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES STATES EARLY IN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BECOME OPEN-WAVE TROUGH -- ENTRAINED INTO SWRN QUADRANT OF CYCLONIC FLOW BELT ENCIRCLING GREAT LAKES VORTEX -- AROUND END OF PERIOD. BROAD PLUME OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER CONUS BETWEEN CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MID-ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGION. AT SFC...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM N-CENTRAL MN TO SERN NEB...S-CENTRAL KS...NERN NM. BY 23/00Z THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN NM EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL OK...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OVER OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...AND EWD ACROSS REGION AROUND LM. ...SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS... INTENSE SFC HEATING AND MIXING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE INITIALLY STRONG CAP THROUGHOUT DAY...RESULTING IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG PORTIONS FRONTAL ZONE. MOST PROBABLE TIME WINDOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IS 22/21Z-23/01Z. POCKETS OF UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR REGION BASED ON CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS AND PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/MIXING CHARACTERISTICS. SFC DEW POINTS IN INFLOW LAYER...ALONG WITH MLCAPES...WILL LESSEN WITH WWD EXTENT FROM THERE...BUT STILL SHOULD BE IN 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS. BUOYANCY WILL WEAKEN EWD ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO BECAUSE OF LOWER SFC THETAE...HOWEVER SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. ONE OR TWO MCS MAY EVOLVE DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING SWD OR SEWD OVER ERN OK/AR WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... RESIDUAL SFC-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE NOW ORIENTED NEARLY MERIDIONALLY FROM SRN MN SWD ACROSS MO AND AR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AMIDST PREVAILING WLY/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE NOW TO ITS E WILL REMAIN COMMON IN MANY AREAS OF OH VALLEY AND E OF MS RIVER...WITH NARROW PLUME OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED 60S F SFC DEW POINTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY RELATIVE TO SRN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION...HOWEVER WEAKER CINH AND FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FORCE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. BUOYANCY WILL BE MARGINAL...PEAK MLCAPES UNDER 1000 J/KG FROM ABOUT CENTRAL INDIANA/ERN IL NWD AND UNDER 1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS LIKELY WILL LIMIT GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITHIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. EVEN THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT -- LIMITING NEAR FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE AND FIXED-LAYER 0-6 KM SHEARS 60-70 KT FROM SRN IL/INDIANA SWWD ACROSS WRN KY/MO BOOTHEEL REGION. ...FRONT RANGE...CO/NRN NM... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM COMBINATION OF 1. OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE ASCENT IN SOME AREAS AND 2. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT I-25 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY CYS-LVS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...WHICH ALSO WILL BE IN INCREASINGLY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED INFLOW LAYERS...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS FROM MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ...WRN CAROLINAS... PROGGED AFTERNOON HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS 50S F PRODUCE NEARLY UNCAPPED FCST SOUNDINGS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...AMIDST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...HOWEVER MLCAPES APCHG 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALES. 40 KT MIDLEVEL NWLYS AND VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORT ANY HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED TO REACH SFC UNDER MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. LACK OF BOTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HIGHER CAPE PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 12:36:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 07:36:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505221246.j4MCkbKL032083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221243 SWODY1 SPC AC 221242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW ANJ PLN DTW CMH HTS JKL LOZ BNA MEM HOT 40 S MLC FSI CSM GAG P28 25 NNW JLN TBN BLV MTO LAF SBN MKG MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV 40 SSE CSG 45 NW JAN 40 NNW MWL 15 N BGS INK 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 20 NW ELP 15 SW 4CR 10 N ABQ 30 SSE GUC 25 WSW 4FC 40 SW LAR 15 NE DGW 50 WNW CDR 25 SW CDR 25 NNW SNY 10 NW GLD 55 NW GCK 15 ESE SLN 25 ENE SZL 45 WNW STL 20 W SPI 25 E PIA 10 WSW JVL 30 NNE RHI 40 W CMX 80 NNW CMX ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 15 SW CAK 45 E LYH 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30 S AGR MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MI AND THE LWR OH VLY SW INTO THE OZARKS/SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER IMPULSE WHICH CRESTED SWRN STATES RIDGE YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED NEAR INL. SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHEARS SE ACROSS THE WI LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF NRN QUEBEC BLOCK. FARTHER W... STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEARING VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO AB/SASK...SERVING TO FURTHER FLATTEN SWRN RIDGE. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NOW CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SE ACROSS THE OH VLY. SWRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY SHOULD DECELERATE AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN PARTS OF AR AND OK BY 12Z MONDAY. ...SRN PLNS/OZARKS... TSTMS NOW OVER SRN MO/NRN AR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROWING ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WLY BRANCH OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE JET WEAKENS A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP INVOF WEAKENING FRONT SETTLING S INTO THE SRN PLNS AND NRN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NO APPARENT SMALL SCALE IMPULSE UPSTREAM TO ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT. BUT COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK STRONG CAP AND INITIATE A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS OVER NRN OK...NRN AR AND SW MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STORM GUST FRONTS AS THE BOUNDARIES MOVE GENERALLY S/SE INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MID LEVEL NNW FLOW WILL BE MODEST ON EDGE OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE ...AMPLE /30-35 KT/ DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN AR/MO. STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN MODEST...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO EXTEND A LIMITED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL SE ALONG PERIPHERY OF CAP INTO NRN MS BY EARLY MONDAY. ...GRT LKS/LWR OH VLY INTO SE MO... MORE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT CROSSING MI IL/IND AND WRN KY. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG IN MI TO AROUND I500 J/KG IN SRN IL/WRN IND. THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN A SUFFICIENT DEGREE OF UPLIFT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE LATTER POINT. WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LIKELY TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOBE OF VORTICITY WELL DEPICTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM CROSSING CNTRL WI. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND GFS GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST DCVA WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO MI AND NRN IND. POINTS FARTHER SW SHOULD REMAIN ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET...ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN MI INTO SRN IL/IND/SE MO...WHERE 40-50 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO SURFACE FRONT. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BUT OVERALL SETUP SUPPORTS FORECAST OF AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...FRONT RANGE... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ZONE OF OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT/STRONG HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CNTRL RCKYS. DEEP SHEAR WILL DECREASE FROM SRN WY INTO SRN CO/NRN NM...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THROUGHOUT REGION FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED...PROMOTING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...N GA/WRN CAROLINAS... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN UNCAPPED...WEAKLY CONFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SRN APLCNS. 30-40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE THREAT. WELL-MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYERS MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH SOME STORMS. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 16:09:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 11:09:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505221619.j4MGJwPO026648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221610 SWODY1 SPC AC 221609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PGO 35 SE OKC 35 SSE GAG 25 NNW GAG 25 WNW P28 40 ENE CNU 50 S SZL BLV 10 SSE LAF 20 ENE SBN GRR 20 N LAN 10 SSW DTW 55 E LUK 20 N JKL 20 SW LOZ 15 NW PGO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ERI LBE 15 E CHO 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 70 SSW GGW 20 N BIL 25 SSE LVM 20 WSW DLN 50 NNE 27U 20 NW 3DU 60 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 50 NE DRO 40 SW LAR 15 NE DGW 50 WNW CDR 25 SW CDR 25 NNW SNY 30 S IML HLC 15 ESE SLN 25 ENE SZL 45 WNW STL 15 NNE SPI 35 ESE MMO 30 ESE MKE 20 SE MTW 30 NE RHI RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PIE 20 ESE AGR 20 SSE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV 30 N MCN 25 W ELD 15 ENE LTS 30 ESE PVW 25 SSE HOB 65 SSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY TO PORTION OF PLAINS STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER CONUS DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SW AND COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER NERN STATES. STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU WI AND THEN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO NRN TX PANHANDLE. ONTARIO SYSTEM WILL HEAD SEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OH VALLEY AND BECOMING STATIONARY WWD THRU SRN MO AND NRN OK BY THIS EVENING. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL E/W VICINITY SRN MO AND SRN KS/NRN OK. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THRU THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. MLCAPES UPWARD TO 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG WLYS TO THE N...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN INITIATE ALONG BOUNDARY. THE CAP SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ONCE SFC TEMPS REACH UPPER 90S BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...INITIATION COULD OCCUR VICINITY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP AS BASES WILL BE HIGH LIMITING TORNADO THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND PROPAGATE INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN OK INTO AR. AS MODE EVOLVES MORE INTO AN MCS AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ...OH VALLEY... WILL HOLD ONTO A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS OH VALLEY...HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SPREADING SEWD WITH THE S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES...STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD STILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL. ...E SLOPES CENTRAL ROCKIES... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED WWD TO FRONT RANGE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500 J/KG OR HIGHER ALONG FRONT RANGE. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE MOVING OFF FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TOO FAR OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CONSIDER ADDING A SLIGHT IN 20Z OUTLOOK IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS THAN NOW EXPECTED COULD OCCUR. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 20:03:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 15:03:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505222013.j4MKDxJi006189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221958 SWODY1 SPC AC 221956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MLC 20 ENE CSM GAG 50 N GAG 35 WNW P28 25 SW HUT 50 ENE CNU 20 W SLO 25 SE DNV 40 NE LAF 20 NW FWA 35 E FWA 45 S FDY 45 SW CMH 40 E LEX 45 ESE BWG 50 ENE MKL 50 NNE LIT 25 NE MLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAV 20 SSW AGS 45 SE AHN 20 SSW GLH 20 SW TXK 40 N DAL 45 W SPS 30 SW CDS 25 NW LBB 25 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 45 NW ONM 40 SW LAR 35 S DGW 50 ESE DGW 20 WNW AIA 25 E SNY 35 SW MCK 20 ESE HLC 20 ENE SLN 10 ENE OJC 25 WSW SPI 45 SE MMO 35 ESE MKE 15 ESE MTW 30 NE RHI RRT ...CONT... 25 WNW ERI 25 WSW LBE 15 NNE SHD 10 SW RIC 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 70 SSW GGW 20 N BIL 25 SSE LVM 20 WSW DLN 50 NNE 27U 20 NW 3DU 50 ENE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 35 NW AGR 35 SW VRB 15 SSE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER FAR WRN KS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS FAR NWRN OK EXTENDING INTO FAR SE KS AND SW MO. CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK ASCENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SCATTERED STORM INITIATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS AND LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF WRN KS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM THE FRONT SWD WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE 4000 TO 5000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AND LOWER 70S F. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FROM THE BOUNDARY NWD WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT MOSTLY DUE TO STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE STORMS INITIATE. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY WOULD MAKE VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR SRN KS AND FAR NRN OK. OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR TONIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY. ...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... NW FLOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS IND...SRN IL INTO ERN MO. AS INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND SPREAD SEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...ERN CO.. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MTNS WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE CO PLAINS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED CONSIDERING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS VERY WEAK. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE A HAIL POTENTIAL CONSIDERING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.5 C/KM. ..BROYLES.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 00:55:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 19:55:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505230106.j4N16Eo2007236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230102 SWODY1 SPC AC 230100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUT 25 SE EMP 45 NNE JLN 40 NE HRO 60 S UNO 45 NNE LIT 25 SSW LIT 30 W HOT 10 W PGO 45 SW TUL 30 SSE END 35 E GAG 40 WSW P28 35 WSW HUT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 75 SSW GNT 35 ENE GNT 35 NE 4SL 20 S ALS 20 ENE ASE 40 SW LAR 35 S DGW 50 ESE DGW 20 WNW AIA 25 E SNY 35 SW MCK 20 ESE HLC 20 ENE SLN 15 SW VIH 30 SSE BLV 20 NE HUF 40 ESE SBN 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 25 WNW ERI 25 WSW LBE 15 NNE SHD 10 SW RIC 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 20 SSW AGS 45 SE AHN 40 SW 0A8 25 NNE MLU 40 N DAL 45 W SPS 30 SW CDS 25 NW LBB 25 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 80 E LWT 40 ENE WEY 15 SW PIH 45 ENE OWY 35 SSW BOI 45 SW 3DU 10 ENE 3TH 35 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR... ...NRN-ERN OK/SRN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS FAR NRN OK AND EWD TO NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER REGION. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AR EXTENDED FROM THIS COMPLEX WWD TO NEAR FSM AND THEN NNWWD TO NE OF TUL AND INTERSECTED THE E-W SYNOPTIC FRONT. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAD BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE THIS INSTABILITY AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATED CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE BASED STORMS THUS FAR. PRIND ARE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE E-W FRONT ACROSS FAR NRN OK INTO SRN KS THIS EVENING AS A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30 KT AND NOSES INTO NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL OK. STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN MCS OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS THE LLJ VEERS TO SWLY OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD ALONG/N OF SYNOPTIC AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO ERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...LOWER OH VALLEY... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EXTEND SWWD TO WRN TN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DECREASE IN ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SWRN OH INTO SRN IND/WRN KY. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 06:19:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 01:19:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505230629.j4N6TaJ2027217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230627 SWODY1 SPC AC 230626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE AMA 20 SE AMA 30 NNE CVS 15 SSW TCC 40 SE RTN 10 NE PUB 45 ENE FCL 35 NE CDR 35 SW PIR HON 25 SSE YKN 40 WSW LNK 20 ENE RSL 20 WSW HUT 40 ENE ICT 30 E CNU 30 SE UMN 10 NNW LIT 35 WNW GLH 35 SSE ELD 15 NW SHV 10 SSE PRX 20 ESE FSI 30 SW CSM 60 ENE AMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 20 W RWI 25 NNE DAN 20 NNE LYH 45 NNE CHO 20 W DCA 20 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DAB 55 N PIE ...CONT... 45 SE HUM 35 E LCH 30 NNW GGG 30 WNW MWL 35 ESE BGS 20 NE FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 45 SE ALM 30 WNW ROW 40 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 45 NE 4SL 20 W ASE 50 WSW CAG VEL 40 NE U24 20 SSE DPG 20 NW DPG 50 NE ENV 35 S BYI 40 NNE BYI 45 ESE WEY 45 WNW SHR 20 NNW 4BQ 55 N REJ 10 WSW DIK 10 ESE ISN 55 N ISN ...CONT... 55 W RRT 40 W AXN 15 NNW RWF 45 WNW DSM 45 WNW TBN 35 ENE JBR 40 WNW AND 45 E CLT 20 SE GSO 35 NW GSO 35 S JKL 20 SSW LUK 40 E SBN 15 NE MBL 10 E TVC 30 SSW OSC ...CONT... 60 E MTC 15 SE IPT 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ONM 20 NNW TCS 35 WSW TCS 45 ENE SAD 35 NNE SAD 45 WNW SAD 75 E PHX 65 SSW INW 25 NE PRC 30 SE GCN 30 N INW 45 WSW GUP 40 S GUP 30 W ONM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ENE 63S 35 NNE GEG 35 S 4OM 35 W EAT 45 SE SEA 20 NE OLM 15 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO AR/ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA NWWD TO HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. FURTHER WEST...RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SWRN STATES. THE NWD EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/WRN CANADA INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THEN TURN SEWD OVER THE PLAINS TO GULF COAST/SERN STATES WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...REACHING THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SWWD TO NERN CO BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO TO ERN NM...WITH ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURNING MOISTURE NWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO/WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SWRN NEB BY MID AFTERNOON. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS/NEB PANHANDLE COMBINED WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN THE CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD ALSO BE AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN NEB/NERN CO INTO NWRN KS... WHERE THE NRN EXTENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. INCREASING SLY LLJ FROM TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO KS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FROM NERN NM NWD TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS INTO AR/ARKLATEX REGION... A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN OK TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING MORNING MCS WILL BE THE FOCI FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF ERN OK INTO AR AND NWWD INTO SWRN MO/ SERN KS ON THE NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF OK/WRN AR INTO KS IS PROGGED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE TODAY..GIVEN A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING. A CAP IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER NRN-ERN OK BY 00Z. IF STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND THE LLJ DEVELOPS FURTHER WWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO KS. ...MID ATLANTIC... A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WRN PA TO THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY 18Z...WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO ERN VA TODAY. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING OVER SRN MD/VA INTO NERN NC IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG TRAILING SECONDARY FRONT WNWWD OVER VA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING BY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO SOUTHEAST... A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE TN VALLEY TO AR WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...REACHING SERN GA TO NRN LA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /ESPECIALLY FROM AL EWD/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS... WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY VALUES... STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK...IF CONFIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA AND/OR AN MCV PRODUCED FROM ONGOING MCS OVER SERN KS/NERN OK SUGGESTS A GREATER FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 12:35:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 07:35:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505231245.j4NCjtmk003913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231243 SWODY1 SPC AC 231242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JAX 10 ESE TLH 20 NNW GPT 40 E SHV 30 NNE DUA 55 WNW CSM 25 WSW AMA 10 WSW CVS 45 ENE LVS 15 S PUB 30 ESE CYS 10 NE CDR 20 WSW PIR HON YKN 30 N GRI 50 S EAR 10 NW HUT 15 NNW JLN 25 NNE LIT 20 SSE UOX 20 S 0A8 40 ENE ABY 25 W SAV 40 ESE AGS 30 E CAE 35 W OAJ 15 W RWI 25 NE DAN 10 SW CHO 25 WSW DCA 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 45 SE ALM 30 WNW ROW 40 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 45 NE 4SL 20 W ASE 50 WSW CAG VEL 40 NE U24 20 SSE DPG 20 NW DPG 50 NE ENV 35 S BYI 15 W PIH 45 ESE WEY 50 SSE BIL 40 ESE MLS 30 ESE SDY 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 55 W RRT 40 W AXN 15 NNW RWF 20 NE SPW 60 NE OMA 40 SE OMA 15 WNW MKC 55 S SZL 35 ENE JBR 40 WNW AND 45 E CLT 20 SE GSO 35 NW GSO 35 S JKL 20 SSW LUK 40 E SBN 15 NE MBL 10 E TVC 30 SSW OSC ...CONT... 60 E MTC 15 SE IPT 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 55 N PIE ...CONT... 45 SE HUM 35 E LCH 50 SW TYR 30 WNW MWL 35 ESE BGS 20 NE FST 70 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ONM 20 NNW TCS 35 WSW TCS 45 ENE SAD 25 N SAD 50 SSW SOW 65 ENE PHX 65 SSW INW 25 NE PRC 30 SE GCN 30 N INW 45 WSW GUP 40 S GUP 30 W ONM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 30 E FCA 30 S FCA 25 NW 3TH 10 ENE GEG 30 WNW GEG 40 N EPH 30 W EAT 45 SE SEA 20 NE OLM 15 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE SWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS BLOCK CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM OVER NRN QUEBEC. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS SWRN RIDGE NOSES NEWD IN WAKE OF STRONG DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO DROP SE FROM THE UPR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST PRESENCE OF SEVERAL WEAKER FEATURES MOVING ALONG OUTER FRINGE OF SWRN RIDGE...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE WELL DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. ONE OF THESE IMPULSES IS MORE OR LESS COLLOCATED WITH AR/OK MCC...AND ANOTHER IS ATTM OVER SW NEB. FEATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AT THE SURFACE. DIFFUSE FRONT... AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW..WILL SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS THE RED RVR/LWR MS VLYS. FARTHER NE...A COMPLEX OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTS/TROUGHS WILL ACCOMPANY SYSTEM DROPPING SE ACROSS THE OH VLY/APLCNS. A BETTER DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SE INTO THE NRN PLNS...SUPPORTED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN. ...SRN PLNS/SRN OZARKS TO LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST STATES... AR/OK MCC HAS DEVELOPED A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE /30 KT/ WNWLY FLOW ON EDGE OF SWRN RIDGE. SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THIS DIRECTION AND EXTENDS SE TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST. WITH THE MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY VEER AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE LWR MS VLY REGION TODAY...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE COLD POOL/ LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SETUP...EXPECT THAT AR/OK CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY SEWD TODAY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOULD DESTABILIZE AS A RESULT OF BOTH SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW ADVECTING WARMTH/MOISTURE INTO REGION. THUS...THE EXISTING SYSTEM... AND/OR STORMS FORMING ON ITS PERIPHERY...SHOULD INTENSIFY LATER TODAY. GIVEN DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KT DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR...THE STORMS COULD YIELD HIGH WIND AND HAIL AS THEY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS. BACK N...ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF AR/OK MCC...MODERATE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WRN SIDE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL. GIVEN QUALITY OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS COULD LEAD TO THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OVER MUCH OF OK AND PERHAPS SRN KS. ...SRN VA TO S ATLANTIC CST... A SURFACE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALONG EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE SRN VA LATER TODAY AS LEADING PORTION OF UPR GRT LKS DISTURBANCE DROPS RAPIDLY SEWD. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED SWD INTO ERN SC AND SRN GA. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED FOR LATE MAY...AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR GOOD SURFACE HEATING. CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY ALONG COLD FRONT FARTHER N AND W...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS FROM SRN VA SWD INTO ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. DEEP... LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT WNWLY SHEAR...COUPLED WITH 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO BANDS WITH HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...CNTRL HI PLNS INTO CNTRL/NRN PLNS... SETUP WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS AS ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES BENEATH 30-35 KT WLY FLOW CRESTING SWRN RIDGE. EXISTING LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN CO NNE INTO CNTRL SD WILL BE INTENSIFIED BY DIURNAL INFLUENCES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE AUGMENTED IN TIME BY COLD FRONT NOSING SWD IN WAKE OF SASKATCHEWAN IMPULSE. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR ERN CO/NE NM NWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/SD. COMBINATION OF 40-50 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WHILE THE NM/SRN CO STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL...THOSE FARTHER N WILL LIKELY BE JOINED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE NOCTURNAL MCSS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND INTO ERN PARTS OF NEB/SD. ...UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS... SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM POTENT UPR GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH DEEP/COOL CYCLONIC FLOW...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BANDS OF STRONG DIURNAL STORMS OVER PARTS OF OH/WV AND SW PA. LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 15:57:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 10:57:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505231608.j4NG85xm011236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231605 SWODY1 SPC AC 231604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JAX 10 ESE TLH 30 WSW MCB 40 E SHV 20 SSE ADM 55 WNW CSM 25 WSW AMA 10 WSW CVS 45 ENE LVS 15 S PUB 30 ESE CYS 10 NE CDR 20 WSW PIR HON YKN 30 N GRI 50 S EAR 10 NW HUT 15 NNW JLN 25 NNE LIT 20 SSE UOX 20 S 0A8 40 ENE ABY 25 W SAV 40 ESE AGS 30 E CAE 35 W OAJ 30 NNW RWI 50 SW RIC 25 NW RIC 35 WSW NHK 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 55 NNE CLL 15 N BWD 25 NW SJT 70 S MRF ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 40 NE PHX 20 NNW GCN 40 S 4BL 35 S MTJ 15 NNE MTJ 45 NNW GJT 45 E PUC 30 ESE DPG 60 SW MLD 40 NW COD 25 NNW REJ 20 N DIK 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 45 WNW GTF 15 N EAT 15 N BLI ...CONT... 30 W INL 35 ENE AXN 40 ESE OMA 55 S SZL 20 NNE DYR 25 E AND 30 SSW CLT 30 NNE CLT 35 E TRI 30 NNW JKL 30 SW FWA 10 N AZO 20 NNW LAN 10 NNW MTC ...CONT... ERI 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 20 NNW PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS GULF STATES TO SERN COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING UPPER AIR PATTERN PERSISTS NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER HIGH ERN CANADA AND UPPER LOW OVER NERN U.S. CHANGING LITTLE IN NEAR TERM. STRONG WLYS INTO WRN CANADA/NWRN U.S. GRADUALLY SUPPRESSING UNSEASONABLY LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER SWRN STATES...SWD INTO NRN MEXICO. STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL E OF ROCKIES ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL ROCKIES E/SEWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY TO SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER SERN VA/ERN NC TODAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF STRONG JET MAX WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING FROM THERE WSWWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF GULF STATES THEN WWD THRU NRN OK TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VICINITY OK PANHANDLE. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... E/SELY FLOW TO N OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PUSH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG OR MORE FROM ERN CO/WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF FRONT RANGE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. A SEVERE MCS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING EVENING AND TRACK E/SEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO OK MAINTAINING A SEVERE THREAT MOST OF NIGHT GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOW IN PLACE OVER SRN PLAINS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO SERN COAST... WHILE SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAKER ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE E OF SRN PLAINS...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY DIURNAL SEVERE THREAT. STORM MODE SHOULD BE MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR WITH THREAT PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WIND THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER WHERE STORMS CAN GENERATE A COLD POOL. ...MID-ATLANTIC COAST... A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX FROM OH VALLEY. SEVERE THREAT DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS TO THE N OF NC/VA BORDER AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. STRONG HEATING TO LEE OF APPALACHIANS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER ERN VA/NC. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 20:07:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 15:07:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505232018.j4NKIGvM027074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232002 SWODY1 SPC AC 232000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AGS 10 ESE SAV SSI 15 ESE TLH 30 WSW MCB 40 E SHV 25 SW MLC OKC 50 ESE GAG TCC 20 W CAO PUB LIC BFF 50 SW RAP RAP 55 WNW HON HON GRI CNK MHK 25 NNE LIT 20 SSE UOX 25 WNW BHM 10 ESE GAD AHN AGS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW HSE 35 N EWN 55 NE RWI 25 W RIC 15 SSE CHO 45 ENE CHO 20 SSW NHK 35 WSW WAL 40 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM IGM 20 NNW GCN BCE 40 SSE U24 30 ESE DPG 60 SW MLD COD REJ 30 ESE MOT 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 10 SW RRT 10 NNW AXN 35 ESE OMA 45 N JLN ARG 10 WNW TUP RMG SPA SOP RWI 65 SW RIC 20 NW ROA FWA 20 SSE MKG 20 E GRR 10 E DTW ...CONT... 25 WSW ERI 20 NNE AOO CXY 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 SSE LCH LFK 45 SSE DAL 10 WNW SEP 15 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 45 WNW GTF 45 SE 4OM 15 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY AND ERN GULF STATES.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS**... UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA REMAINS STRONG...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS APPEARS PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ACTIVITY OVER COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ONE DISTINCT UPPER FEATURE IS NOT READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A PERTURBATION WILL MIGRATE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND NEAR WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. GIVEN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 24/02-03Z...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING BEGINS TO INCREASE INHIBITION FOR PARCELS BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASED ABOVE RADIATIONAL INVERSION LAYER...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES**... BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. REMNANT IMPULSE FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE OZARKS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA...AND COULD STILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. AIDED BY MODERATE FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN STATES CYCLONIC MID/UPPER REGIME...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES**... STORMS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...ALONG/JUST NORTH OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND VA INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED TO AROUND 80F. THIS HAS SUPPORTED CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 24/00-01Z. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 01:01:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 20:01:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505240111.j4O1BwAm003255@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240109 SWODY1 SPC AC 240107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC 15 ENE RTN PUB 35 WNW LIC 40 W SNY 30 NNE AIA 50 S PHP 10 NNE PIR 45 WNW HON 10 SE HON GRI 10 N CNK MHK 35 NW JLN 20 WNW HRO 30 NNE HOT 35 N TXK 40 ENE DUA 35 NE ADM OKC 40 WNW CSM TCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SEM 15 SSE LGC 45 E MCN 60 W SAV 15 NNW AYS 10 WSW MGR 20 SSW DHN 30 NNE CEW 35 S SEM 10 NW SEM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM IGM 20 NNW GCN BCE 40 SSE U24 30 ESE DPG 60 SW MLD COD REJ 30 ESE MOT 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 10 SW RRT 10 NNW AXN 35 ESE OMA 45 N JLN ARG 10 WNW TUP RMG 50 E CHA 30 NE TYS 35 W LOZ 25 WSW LEX 15 WNW LUK 35 S FDY 40 WNW CLE ...CONT... 25 WSW ERI 30 WNW AOO BWI 30 NE SBY ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 SSE LCH LFK 45 SSE DAL 10 WNW SEP 15 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 45 WNW GTF 45 SE 4OM 15 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO WRN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN AL INTO PORTIONS OF SRN GA... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO WRN AR... NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM SRN NEB TO NRN OK. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH THE SRN EXTENT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WRN NEB INTO NERN CO. MEANWHILE...A COMBINATION OF A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL/ NRN OK NWWD INTO KS AND ERN CO. STRONG CAP...CURRENTLY EAST OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM NERN NM TO SWRN NEB...SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. EVENTUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM WRN TX INTO KS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN NEB/KS AND POTENTIALLY NRN OK. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ONCE THE MCS/S DEVELOP AND TRACK SEWD. ...AL/GA... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AN MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS GA WILL SUPPORT ASCENT ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH 03-04Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW HAIL EVENTS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ..PETERS.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 05:51:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 00:51:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505240601.j4O61urP029527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240600 SWODY1 SPC AC 240559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35 NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW TYR 25 NNW MWL 25 WNW ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25 NW CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 50 SW BIL 15 WNW BZN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 45 N EAU 20 E FOD 30 NE SZL 25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 20 NNE TUS 55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO 40 S ROA 40 N SHD 10 NW MRB 10 W BWI 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF CANADA WILL RESULT IN A SLOW EWD TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE/COLD LOW OVER THE ERN STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THEN TURN SEWD WITHIN NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY. GREATEST SEVERE THREATS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY FROM ERN CO/NERN NM EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/KS AND OK...WITH A SEWD EXTENSION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...ERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY REACHING THE MN BORDER TOWARD 00Z...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO NERN CO. ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING NWD INTO CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD TO ERN CO/NERN NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH OVER NERN CO AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. A SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S MOVING SEWD ACROSS KS INTO OK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT. FURTHER N...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS SPREADING INTO MN/NWRN IA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...ERN OK/AR TO LOWER MS VALLEY... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL REMAIN FROM NRN-ERN OK/WRN AR TO ERN TX/LA/MS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS AND 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AN MCV FROM THE MORNING MCS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR RE-INTENSIFICATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ONGOING MCS FROM ERN OK INTO AR AND SEWD TO LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE NWLY FLOW MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ...PORTIONS OF NERN-ERN FL... A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN STATES CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH 25/00Z BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY...REACHING NRN FL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DEEP WNWLY WINDS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE FL EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SWD TODAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOB 30 KT RESULTING IN A FEW MULTICELLS...A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED IN THIS OUTLOOK. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC... A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING NWWD FROM THE ERN NC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS VA INTO NC TODAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S/ COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING PEAK HEATING SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. STORMS WITHIN THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINLY SUPPORT MULTICELLS. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 06:30:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 01:30:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505240640.j4O6ehoW009282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240638 SWODY1 SPC AC 240636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35 NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW TYR 25 NNW MWL 25 WNW ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25 NW CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 50 SW BIL 15 WNW BZN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 45 N EAU 20 E FOD 30 NE SZL 25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 20 NNE TUS 55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO 40 S ROA 40 N SHD 10 NW MRB 10 W BWI 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF CANADA WILL RESULT IN A SLOW EWD TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE/COLD LOW OVER THE ERN STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THEN TURN SEWD WITHIN NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY. GREATEST SEVERE THREATS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY FROM ERN CO/NERN NM EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/KS AND OK...WITH A SEWD EXTENSION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...ERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY REACHING THE MN BORDER TOWARD 00Z...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO NERN CO. ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING NWD INTO CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD TO ERN CO/NERN NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH OVER NERN CO AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. A SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S MOVING SEWD ACROSS KS INTO OK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT. FURTHER N...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS SPREADING INTO MN/NWRN IA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...ERN OK/AR TO LOWER MS VALLEY... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL REMAIN FROM NRN-ERN OK/WRN AR TO ERN TX/LA/MS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS AND 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AN MCV FROM THE MORNING MCS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR RE-INTENSIFICATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ONGOING MCS FROM ERN OK INTO AR AND SEWD TO LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE NWLY FLOW MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ...PORTIONS OF NERN-ERN FL... A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN STATES CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH 25/00Z BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY...REACHING NRN FL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DEEP WNWLY WINDS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE FL EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SWD TODAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOB 30 KT RESULTING IN A FEW MULTICELLS...A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED IN THIS OUTLOOK. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC... A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING NWWD FROM THE ERN NC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS VA INTO NC TODAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S/ COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING PEAK HEATING SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. STORMS WITHIN THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINLY SUPPORT MULTICELLS. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 12:19:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 07:19:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505241230.j4OCUACP014658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241227 SWODY1 SPC AC 241225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35 NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW TYR 15 E MWL 20 SSE ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25 NW CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 50 W SAD 55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 65 SSE DLH 30 SW STC 50 NW LWD 25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI ...CONT... 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO 40 S ROA MGW 15 ENE AOO 25 SSE CXY 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PLAINS SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ANCHORED BY UPPER HIGH EASTERN CANADA. UPPER LOW CONTINUES ALONG NERN COAST WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING SEWD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. UPPER HIGH OVER SWRN U.S. BEING SLOWLY SUPPRESSED SWD AS WESTERLIES INCREASE TO THE S OF UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. NWLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM HIGH PLAINS TO SERN STATES UNDER THIS UPPER AIR REGIME. AT THE SURFACE E/W FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS SRN GA TO CENTRAL AL AND THEN INTO NWRN AR WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE MCS THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY A COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SRN WY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. COLD OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT PLAINS MCS STILL MOVING SEWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... GFS/NAM IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT A REPEAT OF MONDAYS UPSLOPE HIGH PLAINS SEVERE SLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF DAY TO RECOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT BY MID AFTERNOON THE STRONG HEATING AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SHOULD SET STAGE FOR INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB. A LITTLE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON MONDAY AS WESTERLIES ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER S WITH FLATTENING OF SWRN UPPER HIGH. THUS SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN CONVECTIVE MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN OVERNIGHT MCS...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE MORE SEWD TRACK THAN CURRENT ONE. THIS WOULD KEEP PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM WRN KS INTO WRN OK AND POSSIBLY ERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND THEN AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING EVENING WHEN A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AS MCS DEVELOPS AND PROPAGATES SEWD. CURRENT MCS OVER SRN KS APPEARS TO BE DECAYING WITH A PRONOUNCED MVC NOTED ON COMPOSITE RADAR. THIS MCV LIKELY NOT TO DIRECTLY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEWD IN AXIS OF HIGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND EWD ALONG ERN GULF COAST. SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN OVER PLAINS. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... AS VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY SERN VA/ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. ...E COAST OF CENTRAL FL... S OF FRONTAL ZONE WLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAIN FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHERE E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE..PRIMARILY BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 16:37:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 11:37:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505241648.j4OGm4oU023189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241638 SWODY1 SPC AC 241636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EHA 50 SE LIC 15 SSE AKO 40 E SNY 30 W LBF 15 ENE MCK 50 NNE DDC 30 E DDC 40 ENE LBL 20 ENE EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ILM 25 WSW GSB 20 NNE RDU 60 SW RIC 40 SSE RIC 20 SE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY DAB ...CONT... 15 SE VRB 10 WNW SRQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE PIR ATY SUX LNK 55 S OJC 50 S UNO 25 NNE GLH 40 N JAN 25 NNE LUL GPT 15 N HUM 15 NNE POE 50 N GGG 10 SSE DUA CDS 35 NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL CYS 45 W CDR 50 NE PIR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 50 NE FNB 30 E UNO 20 N TOI 25 NNE MGR 10 NNE AYS 45 WSW CHS 10 NNW CRE 25 WSW EKN 15 ESE AOO 25 SSE CXY 40 ENE ORF ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 30 SE LFK 50 SSW TYR 15 SSE SEP 45 S ABI 65 SW SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 70 SW SOW 35 E SOW 45 W ONM 35 SW 4CR 40 NW ROW 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45 NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB AND WRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTREME SERN VA/ERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NM NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. BETWEEN THIS RIDGE...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IN THE PACIFIC NW...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN E/W FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WNWWD INTO OK...WHERE IT INTERSECTS A REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS LOCATED IN SERN OK AND NRN TX. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW...WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND EXTENDED SWWD INTO NRN CO. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... GFS/NAM IN AGREEMENT OF STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING SEWD AS AN MCS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF ERN CO IS SUNNY...ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WILL WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE SHOULD SET STAGE FOR INITIATION NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND ERN CO. WLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS PACIFIC NW TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. COUPLED WITH STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NEAR 50 KT. THIS SHEAR PLUS MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN WY/ERN CO. HOWEVER...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE...AND WITH THE RESULTANT COLD POOL RESULTING IN THE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KS THIS EVENING. LINE SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK AROUND 06Z. ...ERN OK/AR LA AND MS... CURRENT MCS OVER SRN KS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...THOUGH A MCV WAS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR EAST OF ICT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SEWD INTO WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE MCV ACROSS EXTREME ERN OK/WRN AR..MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAK CONVECTION HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...COLD POOL PUSHING SEWD FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO MAY AID CAUSE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS...WITH WIND DAMAGE MORE LIKELY AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS AR AND POSSIBLY INTO LA/MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ARE MOVING SWD ACROSS VA AS VORTICITY MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES...A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EXTREME SERN VA/ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...THOUGH STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ...CENTRAL FL... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DESPITE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONVERGENCE WILL MAY A PROBLEM FOR STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP... MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WOULD AND DEEP WLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT BRIEF HAIL/WIND THREATS. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 20:04:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 15:04:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505242014.j4OKEcjL005717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242001 SWODY1 SPC AC 242000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EHA 20 S LIC 45 W AKO 30 WNW IML 10 SE IML HLC 50 NNE DDC P28 GAG EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OAJ 30 WSW GSB 30 N SOP 25 NNE GSO 50 ESE LYH 10 SW ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIR ABR 45 NNE ATY 10 WNW FSD 10 NW OFK 10 W GRI 40 S EAR 10 WNW RSL 30 W HUT 10 W PNC TUL 15 NNE FYV 40 NNW LIT 25 N GLH 40 S GWO 30 N LUL 10 WNW GPT 20 NNW HUM 20 NNW POE GGG 35 SSE DUA SPS PVW TCC 25 WSW TAD 20 SW FCL 10 WNW CYS 55 W CDR PIR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30 SSW ORL 55 SSW GNV CTY 30 N CTY GNV 35 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 25 NNE TUS 50 N SAD TCS 4CR LVS 10 N DRO 35 ESE CNY 40 WSW 4HV 60 SE U24 45 S EVW RWL 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NE ELO MKT OMA FNB OJC UNO CBM 10 W CSG 50 NW AYS 35 S SAV ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 LCH LFK ACT 20 SSW BWD SJT 50 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS 15 WSW GSP 10 ESE HSS BKW EKN 10 E LBE 30 NNW PSB 10 SSW IPT CXY 10 ENE BWI 30 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN FL PEN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC.... ...ARKLATEX/GULF STATES INTO SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES**... MODELS SUGGEST CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES WILL REDEVELOP EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER... INCLUDING ONE NOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SURGE SOUTH/EAST OF THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/THERMAL RIDGE. THIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY. MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG THIS AXIS RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION BECOMING WEAK IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FLORIDA... STORMS ARE NOW INTENSIFYING WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME FOCUSED NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NORTH OF MELBOURNE. ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROGRESS EAST OF COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT SHIFTS OFFSHORE... RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. ERN OK/ARKLATEX/LWR MS VLY... STORMS ARE NOW INCREASING IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHERE FORCING IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARKS. SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NEAR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS BY THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ...PLAINS**... FOCUSED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH...SHIFTING EAST OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...IS ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. AS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA. MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO 25-30 KT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR AND POSSIBLE ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...INITIAL ISOLATED TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL ZONE PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA THOUGH. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT REACH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...BY WHICH TIME COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MINIMIZE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 01:08:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 20:08:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505250118.j4P1IaEi026716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250110 SWODY1 SPC AC 250108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 NE LHX 25 SW GLD 30 SE IML 20 S MCK 35 WNW HLC 35 SSW HLC 40 SW RSL 45 SSW RSL 50 ENE GAG 25 SSW GAG 30 SE EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W VTN 35 W HON 30 SE BKX 40 N SUX OFK 10 W GRI 35 S EAR 10 NNW RSL 15 WSW HUT 10 NW PNC TUL 15 NNE FYV 35 NW LIT 25 N GLH 40 N JAN 25 ENE LUL 30 S GPT 20 NNW HUM 30 N BPT 35 SSW GGG 40 SSE DUA SPS PVW TCC 25 WSW TAD 30 S DEN 40 N CYS 40 WSW CDR 45 W VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GLS 65 SW TYR ACT 20 SSW BWD SJT 50 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 25 NNE TUS 25 NNW SAD 30 ENE TCS 30 E 4CR LVS 10 N DRO 45 SE CNY 20 SW U28 30 NNE PUC 45 NW VEL RWL 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NE ELO 35 E MSP OMA 30 NNE MHK 10 N CNU 40 NE HRO 40 SW TCL DHN 25 NNE VLD 15 NE SSI ...CONT... 40 ENE CHS 45 N CRE 35 E GSB 15 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SMALL PART OF ERN CO...MUCH OF WRN KS INTO NWRN OK INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM ERN CO SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS INTO CENTRAL-SERN OK. AIR MASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT. ONGOING UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT FOR AN MCS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN KS AND SERN CO THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MCS PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER SEVERE MCS TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS WRN-SWRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SRN KS/NRN-WRN OK OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO AND LARGE HAIL WITH THIS MCS. HOWEVER...CAPPING PER 00Z SOUNDINGS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. ...ERN OK/AR TO LOWER MS VALLEY... A WELL DEFINED MCV AND MCS ACROSS AR/FAR ERN OK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO SRN AR/LA AND POTENTIALLY ERN TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS MCV WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEWD ACROSS SRN AR/NERN LA INTO SWRN MS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LEAD ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS MOVING INTO SRN AR/LA AND FAR ERN TX. ...ERN WY/NEB TO ND/SD/MN... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EWD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 100 KT WNWLY UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SWRN SD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH A LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE NERN NEB/SERN SD BORDER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ND/SD SWD TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW AND THEN SWWD INTO NERN CO. MEANWHILE...VIS IMAGERY INDICATED A SW-NE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION... CONTINUING TO RETREAT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SERN SD. MODELS SUGGEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL NEB TO ALONG THE MN/ DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THIS ZONE OF BAROCLINICITY. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS STRONGER INFLOW OF MOIST AIR MASS IS PROGGED INTO THE DEVELOPING MCS OVER FARTHER S ACROSS WRN KS/SERN CO ATTM. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z ACROSS SERN WY/NORTH CENTRAL CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ENEWD. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...FAR ERN NC... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL NC THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DECREASE AFTER 02-03Z AS THE SURFACE LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE OF NC/SC. ..PETERS.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 06:03:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 01:03:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505250613.j4P6Dsbd007981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250609 SWODY1 SPC AC 250608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 20 WSW HOU 35 SSW AUS 30 N DRT 25 NW FST 35 N GDP 45 NE ALM 25 NNE SAF 50 W COS 25 NE COS LHX 40 NW EHA 30 NE LBL 25 WSW ICT 25 SE PNC 45 NNE ADM 10 W DUA 35 N TYR 10 SW GGG 40 NNW POE 25 E POE 25 WSW 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MIA 55 ESE FMY 40 WSW AGR 45 WSW ORL 25 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLS 45 E SAT 15 ENE HDO 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG TCS 10 NW ABQ 15 NNW FMN 40 W PGA 15 W SGU 45 NW P38 20 S ELY 25 ESE U24 50 NW 4FC 40 SSW DGW CDR 15 NNW RAP 25 N 81V 25 SSE 3HT 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 SW RFD 20 ENE CNU 45 NW LIT 45 SSW GWO 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 35 SSE CTY 30 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SERN CO/ERN NM AND SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SWRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NERN PACIFIC...WILL BUILD NEWD OVER WRN CANADA/PAC NW TODAY RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL RESULT IN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN PLAINS AND SEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO MN AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING A LINE FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN IA TO NERN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD TODAY... AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN TO ERN TX/SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...A LARGE COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. SRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. ...SERN CO/ERN NM/KS SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SRN LA... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SSEWD INTO NWRN- NORTH CENTRAL TX. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NRN-ERN TX INTO SRN LA WILL WEAKEN THE CAP FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV MOVING INTO NWRN-CENTRAL TX AND A SECOND MCV MOVING SWD ACROSS LA ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WWD INTO ERN NM/SERN CO IN ADVANCE OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF ERN NM/SERN CO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER ERN NM AND ACROSS NWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A POTENTIAL MCS MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN TX AS A SSELY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR UPSTREAM MCV SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED S OF THIS FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/MCV AND SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL FL. UNI-DIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ...ERN-NERN MN TO NWRN WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW /70-80 KT AT 500 MB AND 100 KT AT 250 MB/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB TO SRN MN/IA. A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN SD AT 12Z TODAY... AND LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. CLOUDINESS ALONG/E OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TODAY AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT/90-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-45 KT FROM SRN MN TO NERN MN/NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK ALONG/E OF THE FRONT MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ... ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF THIS SEVERE THREAT...A CATEGORICAL RISK IS NOT EXPECTED...WITH A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WINDS ALONG/E OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. ..PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 12:25:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 07:25:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505251235.j4PCZw25016749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251229 SWODY1 SPC AC 251227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BPT 35 NNW HOU 35 SE AUS 30 N DRT 25 S FST 35 N GDP 45 NE ALM 25 NNE SAF 50 W COS 25 NE COS 45 S LAA 15 SSE OKC 20 W PRX 45 NNE TYR 25 ESE SHV 25 E POE 25 WSW 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MIA 55 ESE FMY 40 WSW AGR 45 WSW ORL 25 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG TCS 30 ESE GNT 15 NNW FMN 40 W PGA 15 W SGU 45 NW P38 20 S ELY 25 ESE U24 50 NW 4FC 40 SSW DGW CDR 15 NNW RAP 25 N 81V 25 SSE 3HT 50 NNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 N MLI 40 ENE CNU 25 NE HOT 40 N JAN 30 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLS 45 E SAT 20 ESE HDO 60 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S FLORIDA... ...SYNOPSIS... READJUSTMENT IN LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NA WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NCENTRAL U.S. THE LOW OFF THE NERN COAST WILL PERSIST ANOTHER DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NE. VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH ROTATES EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER MN TODAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY EARLY THU AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM VICINITY MN/DAKOTA BORDER SWWD INTO NERN CO CONTINUES E AND S...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MCS ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SURFACE BOUNDARY SWD THRU WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ESEWD FROM SERN OK TO GULF COAST SRN MS THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ...SRN PLAINS... WITH THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE S OF PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD TO E SLOPES OF SRN ROCKIES. WITH GENERALLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 7-8C/KM PERSISTING EWD ACROSS TX...AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/ERN NM BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. WHILE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ROTATING STORM. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EWD ACROSS TX AS AIRMASS BECOMES STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH JUST A WEAK CAP. INITIATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ON BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WILL WORK SWD INTO N TX AND LA. SHEAR GENERALLY SUFFICIENTLY WEAK THAT MULTI-CELLULAR WILL BE THE DOMINATE STORM MODE FROM CENTRAL TX SEWD. ...SRN FL... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD CENTRAL FL. IN THE MEANTIME INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON SRN FL. WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG S OF FRONT AND AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS WILL RESULT IN SOME HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY VICINITY E COAST SEA BREEZE. ..HALES/BRIGHT.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 16:43:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 11:43:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505251653.j4PGreu6013279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251634 SWODY1 SPC AC 251632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 45 W HOU 15 S SAT 35 N DRT 25 S FST 35 N GDP 45 S 4CR 65 NNW LVS 20 WNW COS 30 SW LIC EHA CSM 15 N PRX 45 SE PRX SHV 20 W POE 20 NNE BPT 30 WSW BPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 55 W MIA 30 N FMY 35 NW AGR 10 SSE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 N MLI 25 N SZL 20 NW JLN 35 WSW FYV 40 SSE HOT JAN 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 15 SE DAB ...CONT... 45 WSW GLS 15 N VCT 45 ENE COT 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 55 NW TUS 40 W SAD 50 WSW DMN 30 SSW TCS 10 W GNT 80 S 4BL 30 NE GCN 40 SW SGU 20 NNW P38 40 SE ELY 25 ESE U24 25 SW CAG 30 SW LAR 45 ENE CYS 25 NNW IML 45 ENE MCK 20 S HSI 25 SSE OLU 35 NNW SUX 20 NNW YKN 10 N ANW 15 NNW CDR 45 N WRL 15 N BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN PLAINS WWD INTO ERN NM/SRN CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WNWWD INTO NRN/WRN TX...AND THEN NWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN CO/NM. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN U.S. TROUGH...WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME ERN SD...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO. ...SRN PLAINS... OVERNIGHT MCS WAS LOCATED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND THE SPS AREA AT MID MORNING. WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF MWL WITH FRONT EXTENDING EWD NORTH OF DFW TO NEAR SHV. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE MAINTAINED BY WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE STORMS MAY STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH HEATING AND AS THE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT...UPDRAFTS SHOULD INGEST A RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGER HAIL. ALSO...CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP AND AID IN GENERATING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA BETWEEN DFW AND ABI. STRONG HEATING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0C/KM...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONGER WINDS 3-10 KM AGL AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT... THOUGH THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG PROPAGATION SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO MOVE SWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AREA OF TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. ...ERN NM/ERN CO... ELY BOUNDARY LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS/GREATER INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND AID IN STORM INITIATION NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN NM. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...BUT HIGH STORM BASES AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. ...SRN FL... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CENTRAL FL THOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. HOWEVER...WHAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WILL BE IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY VICINITY E COAST SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE FRONT. ..IMY/DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 19:44:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 14:44:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505251954.j4PJswnL025911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251945 SWODY1 SPC AC 251943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LBB 60 S CDS MWL 10 WNW ACT 50 NW AUS 40 W JCT 55 SE MAF 50 SSE LBB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 45 W HOU 15 S SAT HDO P07 FST GDP 45 ESE ALM 10 N 4CR LVS ALS 40 W COS 15 WSW COS 30 SW PUB 50 SSE LHX 30 NNW LBL RSL LNK 15 ESE OMA 40 NW LWD LWD FLV 10 NNE PNC 20 S GAG AMA CDS 10 NW SPS 35 SSW DUA SHV ESF 30 WSW HUM 15 SSW BPT 30 WSW BPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 50 ESE FMY 25 ENE SRQ 25 WSW ORL MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 ENE ELO CWA MSN 40 SSW RFD 35 WSW SPI UNO HOT 10 N ELD LUL 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 15 SE DAB ...CONT... 25 SSE CRP 10 WNW LRD ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 55 NW TUS 40 W SAD 50 WSW DMN 30 SSW TCS 10 W GNT 80 S 4BL 30 NE GCN LAS 50 ESE FAT 20 ENE SAC RBL 30 N RBL 10 W SVE LOL 30 NE ELY RKS FCL AKO GLD 30 WNW HLC HSI OLU SUX 20 NNW YKN 10 N ANW 15 NNW CDR 45 N WRL 15 N BZN 45 N FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NW/W CNTRL TX/... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.... ...FLORIDA**... BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME IS JUST NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ZONE OF ENHANCED FORCING IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW. THIS LIKELY WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WHERE SEA BREEZE IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH SHEAR IS ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH AT BEST...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS**... LATEST MODEL/OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. FORCING WITH ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHICH WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE MIGRATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO...ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE ABILENE/SAN ANGELO AREAS. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED INTO THE 90S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH CAPE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF 30-35 MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES UPSCALE. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY...WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FORMS AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS SOUTH/ SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ...CENTRAL PLAINS**... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG MAIN SURFACE FRONT NOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER... SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT...BY/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 01:08:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 20:08:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505260118.j4Q1IgnF029236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260114 SWODY1 SPC AC 260113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 25 W GDP 40 S 4CR 30 NW LVS 50 W RTN RTN 35 NE TCC 25 SSW CDS 30 W SPS 40 E SPS 45 NNW DAL 35 NW TYR 25 S TYR 40 E LFK 30 ESE POE 25 SW BTR 10 E HUM 40 WSW BVE ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 45 ESE AUS 25 NNE SAT 20 SW HDO 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW GLS 55 N PSX 45 NNW NIR 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 30 SSW ALM 25 SE ONM 50 N 4SL 40 SSE GUC 55 ENE GUC 10 NNE COS 25 NNW LHX 45 SSE EHA 40 NW GAG 30 SW RSL 35 NE CNK 20 SSE OMA FOD 15 SSE OTG 10 NNW MHN 20 NNW AIA 50 SW GCC 10 NNW WRL 30 SSW LVM 15 N HLN 45 N FCA ...CONT... 25 W RRT 25 E BRD 25 ENE EAU 30 NNE DBQ 15 NNE BRL 45 WNW TBN 15 SSW UMN 20 WSW FYV 10 ESE MLC 20 WNW PRX 10 NNE SHV 50 NW ESF 30 SW HEZ 30 SE MCB 45 SSE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 15 SE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BCE 15 SE P38 55 SE TPH 45 SW U31 40 NNW U31 25 S EKO 30 W DPG 15 NNE U24 35 NNE BCE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS TUS 45 N DUG 35 ESE DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND MUCH OF CNTRL AND SERN TX AND SWRN LA... ...CNTRL TX... NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SERN TX THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN ALL-DAY MCS THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER. FURTHERMORE...A WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE TX PNHDL. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK/LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR... BOUNDARY AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE NEAR ONGOING CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS OVER THE PECOS VALLEY WHERE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED INHIBITION. THIS MCS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS COLD POOL INTENSIFIES. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT FROM ABI AREA EAST TO SEP/MWL AREA. PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM NELY/ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY NWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND UPDRAFT SPLITTING OF DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA. A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INDICATED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LOWER LFC NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT /SEE TORN PROBABILITY GRAPHIC/. ...SWRN LA... LONG-TRACK MCS MENTIONED ABOVE WAS MOVING INTO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE SWRN LA GULF COAST. PRE-CONVECTIVE LCH RAOB WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS BUT OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED AS EVENING PROGRESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN. ...ERN NM... NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME BENEATH 20-30KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW. CELLS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THIS REGION. FORCING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FROM THIS CONVECTION. THE FRONT MAY ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS SPREADING SSEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AND SERN NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...NW/CNTRL OK... COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT TSTMS FROM THE TX PNHDL ENEWD ACROSS NWRN AND CNTRL OK. WEAKENING INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD RESULT IN A STRONG WIND GUST OR HAIL EVENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ...SRN FL... STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SWWD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN WEAKLY CAPPED STRONG UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOTED ON EVENING RAOBS FROM TBW AND MFL. ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF A SEVERE WIND GUST OR LARGE HAIL REPORT BUT OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 05:01:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 00:01:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505260511.j4Q5Bh4L022332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260508 SWODY1 SPC AC 260505 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 35 WNW ONM 15 WSW 4SL 40 SW ALS 40 ENE ALS 15 ENE TAD 35 SSE RTN 35 SSE LVS 40 E 4CR 40 NW HOB 50 N MAF 40 ENE SJT 55 NNW SAT 30 SSW SAT 35 ESE COT LRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA GRI 25 W BBW 30 ENE MHN 40 NE ANW 30 SSE MHE 40 SSW OTG 35 SSE SPW 45 WNW DSM OMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TVL 35 SW TVL 35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC EKO 45 NW ELY 55 SE NFL 35 SE TVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 15 ESE DAB ...CONT... 25 NE ROC 50 NE BFD LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10 NNW GGG 40 SE LFK 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 40 SSE GUP CEZ 55 S 4FC 25 ENE CYS 55 E DGW 35 SSW GCC 25 WSW MLS 55 SSW OLF 10 ESE SDY 50 ENE BIS 40 ENE FAR 60 SSE DLH 30 E CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW JLN 40 WSW COU 40 NNW COU FLV 45 SSW EAR 15 SW MCK GLD 40 NNE EHA 40 SSW P28 15 W PNC 15 ENE BVO 20 NW JLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NEB....SERN SD....AND WRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN CO...CNTRL NM...AND SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA THIS PERIOD WITH A BELT OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY AREA. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN TO FILL WHILE DRIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME COASTAL WATERS. COOL NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES MAY SLOWLY BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST. ...NEB/SERN SD/WRN IA... GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WNWLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF FRONTAL INTRUSIONS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MO VLY AREAS...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY BELOW 50F. IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW OVER CANADA. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS SD/NEB AND IA. GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR MOISTENING ATOP THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW TSTMS SHOULD FORM AS THE WIND SHIFT SPREADS SEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE EASILY PRODUCED BY THIS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...S TX/MID AND UPR RIO GRANDE VLY... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO S TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VLY BENEATH NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30KT. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN TSTM INITIATION/MAINTENENCE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY. MOST PROMINENT BOUNDARY WAS A COLD FRONT BACKING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN/CNTRL NM. THIS FRONT IS PRECEEDED BY SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ACROSS CNTRL TX. DEVELOPING COLD POOLS FROM ONGOING AND INCREASING CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY BECOME THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT FROM SERN NM TO THE HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY MORNING. GIVEN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MEAN NWLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE REGION...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE DAY. FORCING AND SHEAR ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED WWD/NWWD INTO CNTRL NRN NM...AND PERHAPS SCNTRL CO...WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...FORCING...AND INSTABILITY. A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NM AND A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ...FL... RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE AND PRESENCE OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AGAIN AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN FL. SEA BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 12:16:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 07:16:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505261226.j4QCQmqX019439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261222 SWODY1 SPC AC 261221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 35 WNW ONM 15 WSW 4SL 40 SW ALS 40 ENE ALS 15 ENE TAD 35 SSE RTN 35 SSE LVS 40 E 4CR 40 NW HOB 35 N MAF SJT 50 NNW SAT 30 SSW SAT 35 ESE COT LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 15 ESE DAB ...CONT... 25 NE ROC 50 NE BFD LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10 NNW GGG 40 SE LFK 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 20 NNW TUS 15 ESE SAD 20 SSW SOW 45 NW PRC 20 SW GCN 70 ESE PGA CEZ 55 S 4FC 25 ENE CYS 55 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 SE LVM 30 N LVM 10 ESE SDY 50 ENE BIS 40 ENE FAR 60 SSE DLH 30 E CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE TVL 25 SE SAC 35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC 35 NNE WMC EKO 15 S MLF 30 NNW SGU 55 SE NFL 70 SSE TVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SGF 20 NNW TBN 25 NW COU FLV 45 SSW EAR 30 NW IML 40 E AKO 55 NE LAA 20 E DDC 30 NNW HUT 35 ESE EMP 20 WNW SGF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO CENTRAL NM... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NA WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ERN CANADA. LOW THAT HAS BEEN VICINITY NERN U.S. FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE E AS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY MN/CANADIAN BORDER EXPANDS ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF ERN HALF OF U.S. N OF 35N. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD E/SE ACROSS PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WITH THE LEADING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A DEEPENING LOW SWRN ONTARIO THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO NRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW FROM EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY SRN PLAINS HAS PUSHED SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND WWD ACROSS MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITING THE AREA OF MDT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN TX NWWD INTO NM. ...SWRN TX AND NM... COMBINATION OF BOTH THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AND COOLER AIR WITH SWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL CONFINE THE AIRMASS NEEDED TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX NWWD INTO CENTRAL NM. THIS AIR MASS IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE NWLY FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER NCENTRAL U.S. THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 30KT. MULTI-CELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT IN THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE TO RESULT IN HEATING STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING UPON CESSATION OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SRN FL... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF COOL FRONT. THE E/W FRONT ACROSS S FL WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25KT OR LESS...WILL FOCUS BEST SEVERE THREAT TO ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...NRN PLAINS... MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THE STRONG WNWLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NRN PLAINS. WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE BEST MUCAPE INDICTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS IS STILL LESS THAN 500 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. THUS THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN DROPPED. ..HALES/BRIGHT.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 16:38:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 11:38:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505261648.j4QGmtga023405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261646 SWODY1 SPC AC 261645 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE P07 65 WSW SJT 25 ENE SJT 50 WNW AUS 20 ESE SAT ALI 10 ESE MFE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 35 W ONM 15 W 4SL 25 SSW ALS 45 WNW TAD TAD 50 ENE LVS 65 SW TCC 15 NNW CNM 15 N MRF 75 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE TVL 25 SE SAC 35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC 35 NNE WMC EKO 15 S MLF 30 NNW SGU 55 SE NFL 70 SSE TVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ROC 20 ENE BFD 25 SSE LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10 NNW GGG 50 ESE LFK 25 ESE LFT 15 NW BVE ...CONT... 20 NNW PIE 35 ENE ORL ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 20 NNW TUS 15 ESE SAD 20 SSW SOW 45 NW PRC 20 SW GCN 70 ESE PGA CEZ 55 S 4FC 20 E CYS 50 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 NW COD 30 W 3HT 40 ESE SDY 35 NW BIS 25 E FAR 45 WSW HIB 50 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 20 NNW TBN 25 NW COU 10 SSE FLV 55 SSW HSI 10 ENE IML 40 NNW GLD 55 NE LAA 20 E DDC 25 S PNC 20 ESE TUL 10 S SGF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SYNOPSIS... UNUSUALLY SEASONAL COLD VORTEX CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWD THRU NWRN INDIANA AND SERN MO...THEN SWWD AND WWD ACROSS NERN AND W CENTRAL TX. PATTERNS LIKE THIS LIMIT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. IN THIS CASE TODAY ...ONLY REMNANTS OF MCS ACTIVITY ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS..WHERE THERE IS UPSLOPE FLOW TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AIDED BY INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...SOUTH TEXAS... REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVED S OF THE RIO GRANDE AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DISORGANIZING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ACTIVITY ON THE U.S. SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE SHOWS SOME REMAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS. MLCAPE IS 1500-2000 J/KG /LIS ARE -2 TO -6/ ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THRU THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5C/KM AND CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL NM... UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS LATER TODAY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ...SRN FL... REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL FROM FMY-PBI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. MODELS MOVE WEAK LOW EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ENHANCE UVVS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ...PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SD TO MN AND IA... MODELS SHOW SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 19:41:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 14:41:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505261951.j4QJpx0B015910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261945 SWODY1 SPC AC 261943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN SVC 10 WNW GNT 20 NNW 4SL 10 ENE DRO 45 NW ALS 20 NNE ALS 45 NNW LVS 35 ESE ABQ 4CR 50 WNW CNM 45 SE ELP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DRT 55 ESE DRT COT 35 SSE COT ALI 25 N BRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 9V9 30 E HON 35 WNW RWF 35 NNW MKT 10 SE LSE DBQ 15 NNW OTM 15 ESE OMA 10 NNE OFK 45 E ANW 35 SSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE BUB 45 SSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 25 NW TUS 15 E SAD 25 SW SOW 70 ESE PGA 25 NNW SGU TPH 20 E BIH 30 NE MER 10 W RBL 15 E EKA 25 SE AST 20 NE PDX 75 NW WMC 10 SSE DPG VEL 55 S 4FC 20 E CYS 50 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 NW COD 30 W 3HT 40 ESE SDY 35 NW BIS BJI 20 ENE DLH 35 NE CMX ...CONT... 30 N JHW DUJ 15 WSW LBE UNI 25 NNE LEX HOP GLH 10 WSW GGG 35 SW TYR 35 SSE LFK BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 20 NNW TBN 25 NW COU 10 SSE FLV 55 SSW HSI 10 ENE IML 40 NNW GLD 55 NE LAA 20 ENE DDC CSM 10 SSE OKC 20 ESE TUL 10 S SGF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 10 NNE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN NEAR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.... ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... MANITOBA CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -24C/ IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH LIKELY WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY AROUND 02Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ...FLORIDA... BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WEAK CAPPING HAS BEEN OVERCOME...WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING IMPULSE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING LIFT VICINITY OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST VERY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS ACROSS MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK NORTHWESTERN FLOW REGIME...ON PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING MEXICAN PLATEAU MID-LEVEL RIDGE...MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS DEVELOPING. ...NEW MEXICO... COLD SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO HAVE CONFINED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THESE AREAS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...WITH RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... LIFT/DESTABILIZATION NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CASCADES. ..KERR.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 20:10:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 15:10:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505262020.j4QKKuYb001953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 262013 SWODY1 SPC AC 262011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN SVC 10 WNW GNT 20 NNW 4SL 10 ENE DRO 45 NW ALS 20 NNE ALS 45 NNW LVS 35 ESE ABQ 4CR 50 WNW CNM 45 SE ELP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DRT 55 ESE DRT COT 35 SSE COT ALI 25 N BRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 9V9 30 E HON 35 WNW RWF 35 NNW MKT 10 SE LSE DBQ 15 NNW OTM 15 ESE OMA 10 NNE OFK 45 E ANW 35 SSW 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 25 NW TUS 15 E SAD 25 SW SOW 70 ESE PGA 25 NNW SGU TPH 20 E BIH 30 NE MER 10 W RBL 15 E EKA 25 SE AST 20 NE PDX 75 NW WMC 10 SSE DPG VEL 55 S 4FC 20 E CYS 50 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 NW COD 30 W 3HT 40 ESE SDY 35 NW BIS BJI 20 ENE DLH 35 NE CMX ...CONT... 30 N JHW DUJ 15 WSW LBE UNI 25 NNE LEX HOP GLH 10 WSW GGG 35 SW TYR 35 SSE LFK BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 20 NNW TBN 25 NW COU 10 SSE FLV 55 SSW HSI 10 ENE IML 40 NNW GLD 55 NE LAA 20 ENE DDC CSM 10 SSE OKC 20 ESE TUL 10 S SGF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 10 NNE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN NEAR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.... CORRECTED GEN TSTMS POINTS LIST ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... MANITOBA CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -24C/ IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH LIKELY WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY AROUND 02Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ...FLORIDA... BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WEAK CAPPING HAS BEEN OVERCOME...WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING IMPULSE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING LIFT VICINITY OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST VERY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS ACROSS MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK NORTHWESTERN FLOW REGIME...ON PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING MEXICAN PLATEAU MID-LEVEL RIDGE...MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS DEVELOPING. ...NEW MEXICO... COLD SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO HAVE CONFINED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THESE AREAS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...WITH RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... LIFT/DESTABILIZATION NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CASCADES. ..KERR.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 00:50:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 19:50:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505270100.j4R10rei008197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270058 SWODY1 SPC AC 270056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW SRQ 25 N PBI ...CONT... 40 S CRP 70 W COT ...CONT... 55 SW TUS 35 SW TUS 45 NNE FHU 30 E SAD 55 NE SAD 25 SE SOW 45 SSW INW 30 W FLG 30 NW GCN 25 E SGU 35 W CDC 70 NW P38 30 NW TPH 55 NNE BIH 30 SE BIH 50 ESE FAT 20 ENE MER 10 NNE SAC 25 SSW RBL 35 WNW RBL 45 ENE ACV 30 SE OTH 30 SW SLE 25 NE SLE 50 WNW RDM 55 ESE EUG 40 ENE MFR 35 E MHS 35 E SVE 20 WSW LOL 20 NW BAM 25 SE EKO 45 WSW DPG 20 S U24 35 W 4HV 25 WNW U17 45 SE PGA 70 NNE INW 40 N GUP 30 SE DRO 30 WNW ALS 40 WSW PUB 25 W LHX 25 SSE LAA 40 ESE LBL 25 SE GAG 10 SSW CSM 40 SE CDS 75 S CDS 55 SE LBB 40 N MAF 35 SW MAF 35 E FST 60 SW SJT 25 NNW JCT 65 WNW AUS 15 NE AUS 40 SSW CLL 25 ENE GLS ...CONT... ANJ 35 SW MBL 20 SSW MKE 45 E MLI 20 N IRK 15 NE FNB 30 ESE HSI 10 SE BBW 25 S ANW 50 ENE ANW 25 W OTG 35 N MKT 40 SSE DLH 50 ENE DLH 80 NW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL CONUS THIS EVENING WITH A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...A DEEP LOW NORTH OF MN...AND ANOTHER DEEP LOW OFF OF CAPE COD. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...THERE IS AN UNUSUAL PAUCITY OF SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE NRN STREAM TROUGHS. ADDITIONALLY...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL/OUTFLOW SURGES ACROSS TX AND NM HAVE ACTED TO SHIFT THE AXIS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF GREATER MOISTURE AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SRN FL. ...NM/TX... POCKETS OF DEEP BUT POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE SRN ROCKIES/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...ANTICIPATED DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING DOES NOT WARRANT A RISK AREA. WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT IN THE WAKE OF GULF COAST MCS MAY SPUR A COUPLE OF STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL TX THIS EVENING. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ...MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES... VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE TROUGH AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS IA/MN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...S FL... STORMS WERE ALSO DIMINISHING RAPIDLY IN THIS REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 05:39:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 00:39:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505270549.j4R5nILm020329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270547 SWODY1 SPC AC 270545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW JHW 30 NW ITH 25 SSE MSV 15 ESE PHL 15 WNW BWI 25 SE PKB EVV 45 ESE VIH 10 W JEF 25 SSW IRK OTM 25 SE DBQ 35 N CGX 20 NW AZO MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ROW 45 WNW SVC 65 ENE SOW 10 NNE GNT 15 NE SAF 35 E LVS 15 SSW TCC 10 ESE CVS 50 E ROW 40 SW ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 50 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 35 NNE PHX 20 SSE P38 50 SSW U31 50 NW BIH 45 E FAT 10 WNW SAC 45 W RBL 45 SSE OTH 25 SSE HQM 35 NNE PDX 45 SE 4LW 10 NW EKO 50 SW DPG 35 ESE BCE 35 NE DRO 30 E GLD 30 NNE SUX 15 SE EAU 30 NW IWD 65 ENE ELO ...CONT... 15 E MSS 25 NE BID ...CONT... 30 NE SBY 20 ESE BKW 20 W CHA 40 NNW MOB 10 N BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MS VLY TO ERN PA/WRN NJ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SCNTRL CANADA/NCNTRL U.S. BORDER AREA WILL UNDERGO A WEST-TO-EAST ELONGATION AS SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE AND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS ERN PA/NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF UPSTREAM IMPULSES IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE...FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE MIDWEST WILL MAINTAIN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...UPPER RIDGING AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. REMNANTS OF A DEEPER SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS TX TO THE LWR MS VALLEY. MOISTURE AND LIFT FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS NEAR SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM S TX TO SRN NM AND NRN MEXICO WILL AGAIN PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW MOVING NWD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA MAY BEGIN TO TAP THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ...MIDWEST/LWR GREAT LAKES TO PA/NJ... FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OR ARCS OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD REGION OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SLGT RISK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THIS CONVECTION PASSES...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY STORM-FREE. LATEST NAM CAPE FCSTS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PA/NY WITH THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE MODEL. HOWEVER...EVEN LOW 50S F DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR APPEAR TO WARRANT THE SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...NM... OROGRAPHIC AND DIABATIC FORCING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY PRESENCE OF DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE NCNTRL U.S. TROUGH. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND FCST MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS OR PERSISTENT TSTM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY DRIER SUBCLOUD AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...TX TO LWR MS VLY... RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASED INSTABILITY IN AREAS WITH STRONGER HEATING. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX GIVEN WEAK CAP. WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...FL... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ATOP AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL HEAT AND MOISTURE. MESOSCALE FORCING/SHEAR NEAR EAST COAST SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ..CARBIN/SCHNEIDER.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 12:18:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 07:18:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505271229.j4RCT5K9017965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271226 SWODY1 SPC AC 271225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW JHW 30 NW ITH 25 SSE MSV 15 ESE PHL 15 WNW BWI 25 SE PKB EVV 45 ESE VIH 10 W JEF 25 SSW IRK OTM 25 SE DBQ 35 N CGX 20 NW AZO MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ROW 45 WNW SVC 65 ENE SOW 10 NNE GNT 15 NE SAF 35 E LVS 15 SSW TCC 10 ESE CVS 50 E ROW 40 SW ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 35 NNE PHX 20 SSE P38 50 SSW U31 50 NW BIH 45 E FAT 10 WNW SAC 45 W RBL 45 SSE OTH 25 SSE HQM 35 NNE PDX 45 SE 4LW 10 NW EKO 50 SW DPG 35 ESE BCE 35 NE DRO 35 SSW IML 45 WNW VTN 20 NE BKX 25 NE BRD 20 ESE INL ...CONT... 25 E MSS 25 NNE BOS ...CONT... 30 NE SBY 20 ESE BKW 20 W CHA 40 NNW MOB 10 N BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CTY 25 ESE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF NM... ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF STRONG WLY FLOW...SOUTH OF ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WERE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LEADING IMPULSE NOW OVER IND/OH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/PA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL LIKEWISE FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES...AND ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE MLCAPE AOB 750 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. STRONG WLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SERIES OF SMALL LINES MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG HEATING BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER DARK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. ...NM... PERSISTENT ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS AIDED IN DEVELOPING A RATHER MOIST SURFACE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM AND INTO FAR SERN AZ THIS MORNING. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. ...WRN ORE/FAR NRN CA... RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND PERSISTENCE OF 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY OVER THIS REGION. THOUGH OVERALL FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...TX TO LWR MS VLY... RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASED INSTABILITY IN AREAS WITH STRONGER HEATING. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX GIVEN WEAK CAP. WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...FL... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ATOP ABUNDANT TROPICAL HEAT AND MOISTURE. MESOSCALE FORCING/SHEAR NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ..EVANS/BOTHWELL.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 16:29:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 11:29:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505271639.j4RGdYxd017590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271636 SWODY1 SPC AC 271635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E EKA 50 ESE OTH 25 N SLE 35 SW DLS RDM 25 N 4LW 35 N SVE 35 S SVE 35 SSE TVL 50 N FAT 20 E MER 35 WSW SAC 30 E UKI 35 E EKA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ROW 40 W SVC 65 E SOW 50 NE GUP 35 SSW ALS 30 WNW RTN 15 SW TCC 10 NW CVS 50 NNW HOB 40 SW ROW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ART 10 SE UCA 35 NW EWR DOV RIC 40 E LYH BKW LOZ CGI 35 NW TBN 25 N SZL 30 SSE P35 OTM 45 SW RFD GRR 65 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE WAL 25 S RIC 15 W BLF 35 E BNA 15 ESE MSL 30 ESE CBM 30 WSW LUL 25 SE HUM ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 25 SSE RUT 20 SSW PSM ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 25 WNW GBN 35 SSW PRC 20 SW IGM 25 NNE LAS 40 NNE DRA 55 ESE BIH 40 N NID 35 NW NID 30 SSE MER 50 WSW SAC 20 SSE EKA 15 ESE 4BK 30 W SLE 30 NW PDX 30 NNW DLS 65 NE RDM 90 E 4LW 45 NW EKO 55 N ELY 25 SE CDC 25 SW 4BL 35 W ALS 20 SE LHX 50 NNW GCK 35 WSW EAR 30 NNW BUB 40 NNW 9V9 AXN 25 WNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 45 SSE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW MEXICO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OR AND NRN CA... ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... BROAD ZONE OF STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION ...SOUTH OF ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND ERN IL WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM LOCATED IN SD. ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN MO...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH WLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS INITIATE... DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING LINES OF STORMS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL IN SOME STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY COOLS...RESULTING IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...NM... MORNING SOUNDINGS WERE MOIST FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AN MCV...LOCATED ABOUT 90 S OF ELP...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ...WRN ORE/FAR NRN CA... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NRN CA COAST...COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AND MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 15-20 KT...MLCAPE VALUES TO 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...TX TO LWR MS VLY... REMNANT FRONT FROM SRN TX NEWD TO THE LA COAST MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO PRODUCE OUTFLOWS THAT LIMIT STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...FL... MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PAST YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM CTY TO ORL MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR LOCATED BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB MAY RESULT IN A FEW MICRO BURSTS IN A COUPLE OF STORMS. ..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 16:37:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 11:37:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505271647.j4RGl8Yw022951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271641 SWODY1 SPC AC 271640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E EKA 50 ESE OTH 25 N SLE 35 SW DLS RDM 25 N 4LW 35 N SVE 35 S SVE 35 SSE TVL 50 N FAT 20 E MER 35 WSW SAC 30 E UKI 35 E EKA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ROW 40 W SVC 65 E SOW 50 NE GUP 35 SSW ALS 30 WNW RTN 15 SW TCC 10 NW CVS 50 NNW HOB 40 SW ROW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ART 10 SE UCA 35 NW EWR DOV RIC 40 E LYH BKW LOZ CGI 35 NW TBN 25 N SZL 30 SSE P35 OTM 45 SW RFD GRR 65 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE WAL 25 S RIC 15 W BLF 35 E BNA 15 ESE MSL 30 ESE CBM 30 WSW LUL 25 SE HUM ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 25 SSE RUT 20 SSW PSM ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 25 WNW GBN 35 SSW PRC 20 SW IGM 25 NNE LAS 40 NNE DRA 55 ESE BIH 40 N NID 35 NW NID 30 SSE MER 50 WSW SAC 20 SSE EKA 15 ESE 4BK 30 W SLE 30 NW PDX 30 NNW DLS 65 NE RDM 90 E 4LW 45 NW EKO 55 N ELY 25 SE CDC 25 SW 4BL 35 W ALS 20 SE LHX 50 NNW GCK 35 WSW EAR 30 NNW BUB 40 NNW 9V9 AXN 25 WNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 45 SSE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW MEXICO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OR AND NRN CA... ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... BROAD ZONE OF STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION ...SOUTH OF ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND ERN IL WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM LOCATED IN SD. ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN MO...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH WLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS INITIATE... DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING LINES OF STORMS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL IN SOME STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY COOLS...RESULTING IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...NM... MORNING SOUNDINGS WERE MOIST FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AN MCV...LOCATED ABOUT 90 S OF ELP...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ...WRN ORE/FAR NRN CA... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NRN CA COAST...COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AND MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 15-20 KT...MLCAPE VALUES TO 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...TX TO LWR MS VLY... REMNANT FRONT FROM SRN TX NEWD TO THE LA COAST MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO PRODUCE OUTFLOWS THAT LIMIT STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...FL... MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PAST YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM CTY TO ORL MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR LOCATED BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB MAY RESULT IN A FEW MICRO BURSTS IN A COUPLE OF STORMS. ..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 19:51:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 14:51:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505272002.j4RK22dD013835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271950 SWODY1 SPC AC 271948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E UKI 35 ESE EKA 45 SE OTH 35 ESE SLE 45 NW RDM 45 NNW LMT 55 SSW 4LW 30 W SVE TVL 30 WSW TVL RBL 35 E UKI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 20 ENE DMN TCS 40 W SVC DUG FHU 50 NNW SAD 45 SSW INW 25 NE SOW 70 SSW GNT GNT 15 WNW 4SL ALS TAD 55 E LVS 45 WSW TCC 30 NNW ROW 45 SE ALM 35 WNW ELP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ART 10 NW GFL 10 SSE PSF POU 35 NNW EWR TTN SBY RIC LYH PSK CGI UNO SGF COU P35 40 ENE SUX DBQ 20 SW CGX SBN JXN 20 ESE MBS 60 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG LEB 25 S PWM ...CONT... 50 ENE ORF ORF RWI AND ANB 0A8 30 WSW LUL 25 SE HUM ...CONT... 25 ESE CZZ TRM DAG EDW NID 35 NW NID 30 SSE MER 50 WSW SAC 20 SSE EKA 15 ESE 4BK 30 W SLE BLI YKM 65 NE RDM 90 E 4LW SLC 10 E PUC GUC LIC DDC HUT RSL IML BFF PHP PIR AXN 15 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 40 NNE CTY DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES.... ...MID MO/MS VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES**... COLD CORE UPPER LOW HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA... WITH BELT OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW TO ITS SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME UPSTREAM...AND WILL AIDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL. LOW MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION... BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS. PEAK INTENSITIES OF STORMS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 01-02Z...WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...FOUR CORNERS STATES... STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHERE LOWER-LEVELS ARE A BIT MORE MOIST. SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... DIFLUENT...AND LIKELY AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT...UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CASCADES...SHASTA/SISKIYOUS AND NORTHERN SIERRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ...FLORIDA... MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A VERY LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AND GENERALLY BECOME CONFINED ALONG CONVERGING SEA BREEZES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 01:01:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 20:01:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505280111.j4S1B8ei022123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280108 SWODY1 SPC AC 280106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 15 ENE MRF 10 SE GDP 30 NNE ELP 50 ENE DMN 20 ESE TCS 30 W 4CR 55 SSE LVS 40 SSW DHT 10 WNW AMA 50 SW CDS 35 ENE SJT 30 W JCT DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE 4LW 35 E SVE 15 SW SVE 30 NW RBL 30 ENE 4BK 30 ENE OTH 25 S SLE 20 ESE SLE 45 NW RDM 35 S RDM 60 SSE 4LW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 S MSV 20 NNW AVP 15 E PSB 15 E MGW 35 NNW CRW 10 WSW LEX 10 SE OWB 30 ESE PAH 45 ENE DYR 30 NE MKL 60 WSW BNA 50 SSW BNA 15 NNE HSV 30 N BHM 20 NE TCL 45 SSW CBM 30 WNW JAN 55 ESE SHV 35 NE PSX 35 SSE SAT 20 SW COT 10 SW LRD ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 45 WSW GBN 45 NNW GBN 55 NNW GBN 35 S PRC 15 ESE PRC 30 N PRC 55 SW GCN 40 N IGM 35 NNE LAS 60 N DRA 30 S TPH 50 ESE BIH 35 N NID 30 NW NID 60 NNE BFL 40 NNE FAT 65 NW BIH 45 SSW TVL 35 E SAC 35 NNW SAC 35 E UKI 50 NNW UKI 15 SE CEC 15 SE OTH 45 SSE AST 15 S OLM 40 ESE OLM 25 NNW DLS 15 S DLS 30 ENE RDM 50 SW BNO 70 ENE 4LW 75 NW WMC 40 W WMC 25 SSW WMC 40 W TWF TWF 40 SE TWF 60 NNE ENV 55 W U24 30 SW U24 45 E U24 10 SSE PUC 20 SW U28 30 S 4HV 30 SSW U17 75 ESE PGA 45 NW GUP 45 NNE GUP 45 ESE DRO 55 NNE ALS 40 NW COS 25 S LIC 50 NNE GCK 15 NE DDC 35 S DDC 15 S LBL 55 S LBL 65 NE AMA 60 N CDS 10 WNW LTS 30 SE LTS 10 S ADM 30 ENE MLC 30 ESE FSM 30 SSW HRO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSW CNU 25 SSW FNB 35 NW FNB 40 E OMA 30 S FOD MCW 15 NE RST 15 NNE EAU 55 W RHI 25 ESE IWD 15 E CMX ...CONT... 35 W ANJ 10 NW MBL 25 NNE BEH 45 SW JXN 30 ENE TOL ...CONT... 15 S ART 40 NW GFL 25 SE EEN BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MIA 40 WNW MIA 40 ENE SRQ 15 ESE GNV 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MQM 55 WNW IDA 10 SSW SUN 30 N BOI 60 ESE BKE 60 SSW S80 30 ESE S80 60 E S80 35 NNW 27U 15 SW MQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN CA AND SWRN ORE... ...SRN/ERN NM TO W TX... SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA WERE SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN NM...AND EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PNHDL. A COUPLE OTHER CLUSTERS OF VIGOROUS STORM ACTIVITY WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BIG BEND...ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY. A NUMBER OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL/OUTFLOW ZONES AMIDST ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE/MAINTAIN STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...MULTICELLULAR STORM MERGERS...AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MCV ACROSS NRN MEXICO...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MORE HOURS OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SEE LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SHORT-TERM FCST INFO. ...NRN CA/SWRN ORE... VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST MOISTENING ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WERE RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE COASTAL RANGES AND SRN CASCADES OF SWRN ORE TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF CA. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...MODEST DIFFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC/DIABATIC EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS. BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SERN AZ... BAND OF STRONGER ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND MCV CIRCULATION ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO HAS AIDED DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS SERN AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS PIMA COUNTY WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS INITIATING AS CAP IS OVERCOME BY HEATING. OUTFLOW SPREADING WWD ACROSS GILA COUNTY MAY FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 40F...AND POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 05:44:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 00:44:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505280554.j4S5sbxP027658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280552 SWODY1 SPC AC 280550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ILM 40 WSW SOP 35 E HKY 40 ENE TRI 15 E JKL 55 ESE LUK 20 S CMH 30 E ZZV 25 N MGW 15 NNE HGR 15 SSE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DDC 20 SE EHA 30 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 50 SSE ALS 10 WNW LHX 55 N LAA 25 NW GLD 20 S BBW 20 WNW OLU 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK 15 N COU 25 SW JEF 55 SSW SZL 35 ENE CNU 15 SW EMP SLN 10 SE RSL 30 NNE DDC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MRF 20 W INK 10 NE HOB 45 ESE LBB 65 SSE CDS 45 SE SPS DAL 35 NE ACT 20 NW TPL 55 W TPL 40 WNW JCT 10 N P07 35 E MRF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE YUM 30 ESE EED 70 N DRA 30 E TVL 55 SE EKA 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 35 E BLI YKM 15 S PDT 25 WNW SUN 20 S 3HT 15 ENE BIL 25 S SHR 20 S LND 35 SSW RWL 35 SSW BFF 30 SW ANW 30 NE MHE 15 SW STC 35 NNE BRD 65 W RRT ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL 15 WNW GNV 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MVN 15 SSW TBN 40 SSW UNO 55 SW JBR 55 E MKL 25 NW CSV 60 SW LEX 45 WSW SDF 15 S MVN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VLY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SW AND CNTRL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM/SERN CO ACROSS KS/SRN NEB TO MO/IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN CA AND WRN ORE... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX MULTI-STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW LADEN WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES WILL REMAIN POSITIONED FROM THE NRN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY...TO THE EAST COAST. A WELL-DEFINED PACIFIC LOW WILL COME ASHORE NEAR THE ORE/CA BORDER AND PROGRESS INLAND WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 60M PER 12H SPREADING FROM THE SRN CASCADES TO NRN NV. IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM....AT LEAST TWO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DEEP CONVECTION. ONE IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO BY LATER TODAY. THE OTHER IMPULSE... LIKELY OF MESO/CONVECTIVE ORIGIN...WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY INDUCING WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL DEEP SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE. IN THE FASTER STREAM ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...ND EAST...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE NOW UNDERCUTTING THE WRN RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A STRONGER DISTURBANCE EVOLVING IN THE BASE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER MT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ENHANCE NOCTURNAL LLJ AND MCS POTENTIAL VICINITY OF KS/MO THROUGH TONIGHT. ...OH VLY TO MID ATLANTIC... STRONG IMPULSE WAS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE MIDWEST FROM IL/IND TO MO/KS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY TO ACT ON GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FROM THE DELMARVA AREA TO THE CAROLINAS. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OR LINES OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 40-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW LONGER-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW/LEE TROUGH AND LOCAL SEA/BAY BREEZE INTERACTIONS. MARGINAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY/WV/WRN VA AREA. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVELY FAST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTHWEST TO TX... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS PERSISTS IN VICINITY OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST TX/PECOS VALLEY. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/MCV. POCKETS OF STRONGER SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK/MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INITIAL STORMS WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION MAY INCREASE BY EVENING AS WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENSUES AND LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONT STRENGTHENS. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO LARGE MCS AND SPREADING NEWD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY PEAK HEATING ACROSS A LARGE REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST...FROM SRN AZ TO NM. ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SPREADING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION BUT INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS/SRN NEB TO MO VLY... MOISTURE RETURN AROUND WRN EXTENT OF WEAK SRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE WILL COMBINE WITH STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSES TO SUPPORT MODEST DESTABILIZATION FROM NERN NM/SERN CO TO KS/NEB BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND GRADUAL CAP EROSION SHOULD OCCUR AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY INITIATE FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SRN CO/NERN NM...AS WELL AS ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP FROM NERN KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KT ATOP WEAK SLY/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST IN THE SLGT RISK AREA. AN MCS MAY BE MAINTAINED ACROSS NRN MO THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING LLJ DIRECTED TOWARD THIS REGION. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... STRONG DPVA/LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY MID/UPPER LOW AS IT DRIFTS INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE TODAY. ANTECEDENT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT WILL ENHANCE STORM UPDRAFTS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING DOWNBURST. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 12:22:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 07:22:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505281232.j4SCWvAh023456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281228 SWODY1 SPC AC 281226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRE 35 SSW SOP 55 NNW RWI 55 ESE LYH 25 S CHO 25 SW EKN 15 E MGW 10 WSW AOO 15 E NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 50 WNW FST 10 NW INK 20 NNE MAF 10 ESE SJT 10 N JCT 50 WNW HDO 40 SE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 15 WNW DEN 45 WNW AKO 20 WNW OLU 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK 40 NNW SZL 10 SE FLV 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GBN 10 WSW IGM 15 WNW BIH 15 SW TVL 55 SE EKA 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 35 E BLI YKM 15 S PDT 50 SSE S80 25 NW BTM 35 N BIL 45 WSW MBG 25 NNW ABR 30 NNW FAR 75 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL 15 WNW GNV 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MVN 15 SSW TBN 10 SW HRO 55 SW JBR 55 E MKL 25 NW CSV 60 SW LEX 45 WSW SDF 15 S MVN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL OREGON... ...OH RIVER VALLEY ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS UNSEASONABLY DRY OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION WITHIN BROAD WLY FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM AS IT MOVES QUICKLY EWD TODAY. THIS MAY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON... PRIMARILY NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR WV/MD PANHANDLE REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL HINDER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL MLCAPE ATOP STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR UNDER 70+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET...THIS MAY PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES OR BRIEF SUPERCELLS. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD QUICKLY EWD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO NRN MO... AIR MASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY DRY OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. HOWEVER...PLUME OF LOWER/MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY AND ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP UNDER WITHIN 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC ANALYSES NEARING NWRN CO IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL/ERN CO AND FAR NRN NM DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR CONVERGENCE AXES OVER ERN CO PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE REGION SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED 2" IN DIAMETER...WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS HIGH LCLS LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL AWAY FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA. SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES... WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE NEAR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING E-W INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS...WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP. THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HEATING/CONVERGENCE OVERCOME CAPPING. HIGH PLAINS STORMS MAY BUILD UPSCALE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE ELEVATED STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS AND INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT. ...WRN/CENTRAL ORE... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ORE TODAY...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY...AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY...AS UPPER LOW NEARS. THUS...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SUSTAINING THEMSELVES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...TX... EXTENSIVE MCS/MCC NOW EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL TX APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEWD AHEAD OF WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTING AWAY FROM LARGER UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE TROUBLE DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS THESE STORMS SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTURE CAN OCCUR OVER SWRN TX. LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER STEEP ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT SUSTAINING MODERATE SHEAR. SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE INTO THE BIG BEND REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SWRN TX...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 16:38:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 11:38:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505281648.j4SGmk0w002175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281646 SWODY1 SPC AC 281644 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CRE FAY RWI 55 ESE LYH 25 S CHO 45 SSW MRB 10 ESE MRB 10 ENE CXY 20 ENE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 15 WNW DEN SNY 35 WNW OFK 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK 40 NNW SZL 10 SE FLV 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI YKM PDT 50 SSE S80 25 NW BTM 35 N BIL 45 WSW MBG 20 ENE ABR 10 S FAR 35 W RRT ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL GNV 40 ESE VLD 10 ESE MGR 30 SE MAI 10 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 25 SW EED 15 WNW BIH 15 SW TVL 55 SE EKA 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV 15 NNE TBN 15 ESE HRO 50 NE LIT 20 SSE MEM 15 SE MSL 25 NW RMG 35 NW AND 10 WNW CLT GSO ROA BKW 20 NNW JKL 25 SSE SDF 45 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NRN CA INTO OREGON... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY ABNORMAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES WITH BROAD ELONGATED COLD VORTEX EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE CA/OR COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. MOST NOTICEABLE ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS THAT THIS PATTERN HAS LEFT 60F DEW POINTS MOSTLY S OF 35N. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MS AND OH VALLEY AREAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE PERIOD. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS TO BE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. ...DELMARVA AREA SWD INTO ERN NC... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER S CENTRAL PA WITH WEAK ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH ERN VA INTO NRN GA. LATEST LIGHTING DETECTION LOOP SHOWS ISOLATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW NEAR THE D.C. AREA AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF SERN VA INTO THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE. ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOWS LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES JUST BELOW 8C/KM AND DCAPE JUST BELOW 600 J/KG. THUS... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LOWER PROBABILITIES EXTEND WWD INTO OHIO WHERE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7C/KM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MODELS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN CO INTO W CENTRAL MO. SREF MODELS SEEM TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS KS AND PARTS OF NEB IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET. GIVEN LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED MCS FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ...PARTS OF OREGON AND CA... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO NWRN CA IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE BETWEEN -15C AND -20C LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. TIGHT CYCLONIC HORIZONTAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT GIVEN SOME DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 20:05:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 15:05:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505282015.j4SKFJwh025468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282009 SWODY1 SPC AC 282007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 10 NNW DEN SNY BBW 25 SW OLU 30 ENE BIE 25 NNW TOP 15 SSW MHK 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ACY 20 SW TTN 25 ENE ABE 20 N JFK 20 E JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI YKM PDT 35 ESE S80 35 NE 3DU 20 ENE LWT 50 ENE Y22 65 N ATY 30 ENE FAR 65 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL GNV 40 ESE VLD 10 ESE MGR 30 SE MAI 10 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 10 NW DRA 60 SW U31 20 S RNO 35 NE UKI 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV 60 NNW POF 30 SSW UNO 55 NE LIT UOX 35 WNW BHM 25 ESE ATL 50 SE AND 20 ENE RDU 40 SSW RIC 40 SSE CHO 15 SW SSU 20 NNW JKL 45 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO/NM INTO NRN KS/SRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN CA AND ORE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NJ... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN CO AS ELONGATED TROUGH SAGS SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. STRONG SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG FOCUSED CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...NEWD INTO SCNTRL NEB WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION HAS AIDED SCATTERED CONVECTION OFF AND ON DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FAVORABLE INFLOW INTO THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH STRONG VEERING PROFILES SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS THIS EVENING. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLUSTERING/OUTFLOW FORCE CONVECTION INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE THAT WILL SAG SEWD INTO DEVELOPING LLJ OVER WRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...REMNANTS OF FRI NIGHT MCS HAS MOVED INTO FAR WEST TX ALONG NM BORDER...JUST NW OF MAF. HEATING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE PECOS REGION APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM NEAR MAF...SWWD TO EAST OF MRF. WITH STRONGEST FLOW/INSTABILITY OBSERVED FARTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. DOWNSTREAM...WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT/CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX TOWARD THE ARK/LA/TEX WITH SEVERAL ARCING BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...SEWD ALONG THE SABINE RIVER. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM SERN TX TO CNTRL MS...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. RESULTANT UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH THESE BAND OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO MS LATER TONIGHT. ...OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC... MULTIPLE N-S WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONES ARE TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...NORTH OF FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS. LOCAL PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THESE ZONES. THE LEADING ZONE OF CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ROUGHLY 500 J/KG CAPE. UPDRAFTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S. FARTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL OH WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS BEFORE IT WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER WRN PA. ...NRN CA/ORE... WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE ORE/CA COAST. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS CIRCULATION...LIGHTNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH TIME HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INSTABILITY IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER SCNTRL ORE. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 21:51:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 16:51:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505282201.j4SM1XSp004255@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282129 SWODY1 SPC AC 282128 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 282125Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE 35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 10 NNW DEN SNY BBW 25 SW OLU 30 ENE BIE 25 NNW TOP 15 SSW MHK 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ACY 20 SW TTN 25 ENE ABE 20 N JFK 20 E JFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W TPL 40 W TYR 25 NNE GGG 30 ESE SHV POE 20 W LCH 35 WNW HOU 40 W AUS 65 WNW AUS 35 W TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI YKM PDT 35 ESE S80 35 NE 3DU 20 ENE LWT 50 ENE Y22 65 N ATY 30 ENE FAR 65 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL GNV 40 ESE VLD 10 ESE MGR 30 SE MAI 10 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 10 NW DRA 60 SW U31 20 S RNO 35 NE UKI 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV 60 NNW POF 30 SSW UNO 55 NE LIT UOX 35 WNW BHM 25 ESE ATL 50 SE AND 20 ENE RDU 40 SSW RIC 40 SSE CHO 15 SW SSU 20 NNW JKL 45 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO/NM INTO NRN KS/SRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN CA AND ORE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NJ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX... AMENDED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK FOR CNTRL/ERN TX ...CENTRAL/ERN TX... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION FROM NEAR TPL TO SW OF TYR. VEERING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND A RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG...FAVOR LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO STRONG HEATING. IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP WEST ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. REF SWOMCD 1040 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...PREVIOUS 20Z OUTLOOK DISCUSSION... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN CO AS ELONGATED TROUGH SAGS SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. STRONG SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG FOCUSED CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...NEWD INTO SCNTRL NEB WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION HAS AIDED SCATTERED CONVECTION OFF AND ON DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FAVORABLE INFLOW INTO THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH STRONG VEERING PROFILES SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS THIS EVENING. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLUSTERING/OUTFLOW FORCE CONVECTION INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE THAT WILL SAG SEWD INTO DEVELOPING LLJ OVER WRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...REMNANTS OF FRI NIGHT MCS HAS MOVED INTO FAR WEST TX ALONG NM BORDER...JUST NW OF MAF. HEATING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE PECOS REGION APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM NEAR MAF...SWWD TO EAST OF MRF. WITH STRONGEST FLOW/INSTABILITY OBSERVED FARTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. DOWNSTREAM...WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT/CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX TOWARD THE ARK/LA/TEX WITH SEVERAL ARCING BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...SEWD ALONG THE SABINE RIVER. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM SERN TX TO CNTRL MS...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. RESULTANT UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH THESE BAND OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO MS LATER TONIGHT. ...OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC... MULTIPLE N-S WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONES ARE TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...NORTH OF FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS. LOCAL PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THESE ZONES. THE LEADING ZONE OF CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ROUGHLY 500 J/KG CAPE. UPDRAFTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S. FARTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL OH WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS BEFORE IT WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER WRN PA. ...NRN CA/ORE... WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE ORE/CA COAST. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS CIRCULATION...LIGHTNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH TIME HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INSTABILITY IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER SCNTRL ORE. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 01:01:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 20:01:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505290111.j4T1BZ8w003671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290109 SWODY1 SPC AC 290107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE P07 40 WSW SJT 25 SW ABI 45 ENE ABI 25 SSW DAL 20 W TYR 15 ENE GGG 25 NNE SHV 40 NNE MLU 40 NNW JAN 20 S JAN 10 S MCB LCH 15 NW HOU 30 W VCT 35 WNW ALI 25 SE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JAX 20 SE VLD 20 SE PFN ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 10 NNE PHX 40 ESE IGM 25 SSW SGU 50 SSW ELY 25 SSW U31 75 NNW LOL 55 E MHS 45 SSE MHS 40 SSW MHS 35 SE CEC 20 SSW OTH ...CONT... 20 N AST 25 SE OLM 45 ESE YKM 40 SE ALW 60 SW MSO 15 SSE 3DU 40 E LVM SHR 50 ESE WRL 30 E RIW 30 ENE BPI 40 WSW BPI 30 N EVW 40 S EVW 25 N PUC 30 ESE PUC 25 NE CNY 15 SSE GJT 30 W ASE 10 NNE EGE 45 WNW 4FC 25 W FCL 15 ENE DEN 35 W AKO 40 ESE CYS 25 NW CYS 35 N LAR 20 SSE CPR 25 NNW DGW 50 W CDR 25 E CDR 35 WNW VTN 50 SSE 9V9 45 NNE SUX 40 NNW OTM 20 ESE IRK 40 SSW STL 55 SE VIH 15 SSW CNU 20 NNW ICT 45 N P28 10 SE DDC LBL 40 SSW EHA 20 W DHT 20 N TCC 65 SW TCC 40 SE 4CR 55 ESE ALM 10 WSW CNM 20 ENE CNM 35 N HOB 30 WNW LBB 20 NNE PVW 40 W CSM 30 SSW END 25 SW TUL 50 N HOT 50 NE PBF 45 ENE GWO 40 E 0A8 15 NNW MCN 45 WSW CHS 20 WSW ILM 30 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N EFK 10 ESE PWM ...CONT... JFK 35 NW MSV 45 SW SLK 35 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BUF 20 E AOO 10 NW CHO 20 W BLF 25 W LEX 30 SW LUK 10 NNW FDY 10 WNW LAN 40 SE MTW 25 NW OSH AUW 15 NNW RHI 35 WSW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MIA 45 WNW MIA 15 SW AGR 10 SE ORL 15 SE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S TX TO LWR MS VLY... ...S TX TO LWR MS VLY... A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE BEING SUSTAINED BY SUBTLE STN STREAM IMPULSES ACTING ON HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY AND SERN TX THIS EVENING. THE LEADING CLUSTER WAS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NERN LA/SERN AR WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR COULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL/WIND AS THE SMALL MCS CROSSES THE MS RIVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A MORE INTENSE UPSTREAM COMPLEX...CURRENTLY WITHIN WATCH 342 OVER SERN TX...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE NOSE OF A MID LEVEL JET STREAK...WITH POSSIBLE MCV ORIGINS. THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM CNTRL LA WWD TO THE LWR PECOS VLY. OTHER WEAKLY ORGANIZED BOWING COMPLEXES OF DEEP CONVECTION WERE MOVING EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS S TX. ONE WAS MOVING ACROSS WATCH 343...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THE OTHER COMPLEX WAS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE FROM MEXICO. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO...EXPECT SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF S TX. ...ORE TO NRN GREAT BASIN/SWRN ID... COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NRN CA WITH PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING ON UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SRN/SERN ORE ACROSS ID AND NRN NV. WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTION EXISTS IN AN ARC AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE POCKETS OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PERSISTENT ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. ...CNTRL PLAINS... MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS FROM ERN CO ACROSS NEB/KS THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL. NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AS FRONTAL FORCING AND LLJ STRENGTHEN ACROSS THESE AREAS. A FEW STORMS WITHE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 05:30:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 00:30:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505290540.j4T5ettm028182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290538 SWODY1 SPC AC 290536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 45 N HDO 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO 20 SSW TCL 15 SW MGM 30 S TOI 20 WNW PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CSM 35 W CDS 40 ESE CVS 35 SW TCC 45 WSW RTN 15 NE ALS 50 ESE GUC 50 ESE ASE 30 SW DEN 20 NNE COS 30 ENE PUB LAA 55 ESE GLD 40 NNW CNK 25 SE OMA 30 ENE OTM 30 NNW PIA 25 E BMI 15 ENE MTO 20 NNE SLO 15 N STL 50 WNW STL 10 NNW COU 10 WNW SZL 35 N BVO 30 E END 15 SSE CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW EVW 50 NW PUC 25 ENE MLF 45 NNE P38 70 NW P38 70 SE U31 50 ESE U31 55 S EKO 50 NW ENV 55 SSE TWF 10 SW BYI 45 NNE BYI 30 NNW PIH 45 SE IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 35 SSW EVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DOV 10 NNE MRB ZZV 30 N LEX 35 NE BWG 45 E BNA 20 ESE AHN 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... 55 SSE FMY 30 NW AGR 55 S GNV 20 WNW CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 15 W FLG 35 ESE TPH 50 SE MHS 40 S MFR 35 NNW MFR 25 SSW PDX 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 85 WNW FCA 30 SSW 3DU 55 NW CDR 20 W MHN 40 ENE BUB 25 ESE SUX 25 ESE OTG 40 NE BKX 50 WNW ABR 60 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NV...NWRN UT...AND SERN ID... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES TO KS/MO AND THE MID MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/SERN TX ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX MULTI-STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS SYNOPTIC AND SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS DRIVING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE WEST...A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS ESEWD ACROSS NRN NV DURING THE DAY WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-60M PER 12 HOURS SPREADING OVER THE SALT LAKE VLY BY EVENING. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM...A WEAKER LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS...SITUATED WEST-TO-EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT SSEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND BACK WWD/SWWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD SRN STREAM TROUGH FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO NRN MEXICO AND S TX MAY BE THE MOST COMPLEX SYSTEM OF ALL. THIS LARGER SCALE TROUGH CONTAINS A NUMBER OF SMALLER...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED... PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST AND CONCERN WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING/MORNING CONVECTION...AND A BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW /35-40KT AT 500MB/ EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE LWR RIO GRANDE...EWD ACROSS THE NWRN AND NCNTRL GULF COAST. ...ERN NV/NWRN UT/SERN ID... FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NV/UT AND ID DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 30-45KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ROTATING/ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL FAVOR STRONG DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VLY... LIFT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN CO ACROSS KS/MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PROMOTE PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO SPUR HIGHER TERRAIN TSTMS ACROSS SRN CO AND NERN NM AT THE SAME TIME. STRONGLY BACKED POST-FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO WILL SUPPORT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY DISCRETE CELLS INITIATING NEAR OR ON THE BOUNDARY. WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH TIME IF LARGER SCALE LINEAR MCS EVOLVES ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR OVER SERN CO AND THEN SPREAD TO THE TX PNHDL THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...GULF COAST/LWR MS VLY... A LARGE LOW-PROBABILITY SLGT RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS GIVEN HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS S TX. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF INTENSE SMALL SCALE TSTM CLUSTERS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ACTIVITY...LIKELY LINKED TO MID LEVEL IMPULSE/WIND MAX MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT DEVELOPS EAST INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE/HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE...AIR MASS ACROSS S TX WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. OTHER MINOR MID LEVEL IMPULSES WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...WILL PROBABLY AID RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VLY AND TX/LA GULF COAST AREA BENEATH BAND OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH STORMS OF MORE MULTICELL CHARACTER POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FARTHER INLAND/NWWD. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY. ...NORTHEAST... COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...PERSISTENT BACKGROUND ASCENT WITHIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS...AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN PA TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES... WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN BROAD TROUGH AXIS AND HEATING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT A FEW STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG/BRIEF OUTFLOWS AND/OR HAIL. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 12:41:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 07:41:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505291251.j4TCpxZV026381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291249 SWODY1 SPC AC 291247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO TCL 30 W AUO 25 NNW DHN 20 WNW PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW CSM 35 W CDS 40 ESE CVS 35 SW TCC 45 WSW RTN 15 NE ALS 50 ESE ASE 25 SW DEN 25 SSE LIC 25 SE GLD 40 NNW CNK 25 SE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25 N COU 30 ESE MKC 40 SE P28 10 SW CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW EVW 50 NW PUC 25 ENE MLF 45 NNE P38 70 NW P38 70 SE U31 50 ESE U31 55 S EKO 50 NW ENV 55 SSE TWF 10 SW BYI 45 NNE BYI 30 NNW PIH 45 SE IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 35 SSW EVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 25 SSW FLG 30 NW GCN CDC 35 E TPH 30 SE SVE 50 SE MHS 45 SSW MFR 40 NW MFR 25 SSW PDX 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 85 WNW FCA 30 SSW 3DU 15 WSW DGW 25 WNW MHN 30 E BUB 45 SE SUX 30 SSW FRM 20 N RWF 35 NNE ABR 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 SE NEL 35 NNE HGR 30 E DAY 30 N SDF 30 NNE BWG 40 ESE BNA 25 E AND 15 SW CRE ...CONT... 60 WSW MIA 30 W AGR 55 WNW ORL 35 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO...AND ARE FOCUSING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MS/AL AND ERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE FRONT REMAINS WELL DEFINED AT 12Z FROM SRN AL WWD INTO ERN TX...WITH A VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS TO ITS SOUTH. APPEARS STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL BE PREVALENT AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF ERN TX TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EVIDENT ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER LA INTO SRN MS ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT AS AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR BY THE MID MORNING AS LCH SOUNDING INDICATES A CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE UPPER 70S /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1050/. SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE MCS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE SHEAR AND E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT MAY FOCUS POSSIBLE BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS SEVERE THREAT SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME CAP AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND OTHER SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SHEAR REMAINS RESPECTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION UNDER 25-35 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING CLUSTERS/LINES OF SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN SPREAD TOWARDS THE TX COAST WITH THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MO WWD INTO E-CENTRAL CO WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP FROM SERN CO/WRN KS INTO MO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG UNDER 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT AND WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER WRN PORTION OF OUTLOOK REGION. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG...COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NV THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SRN/ERN ID SWD ACROSS WRN UT BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG WINDS/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN ORGANIZATION INTO LINES AND SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 16:44:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 11:44:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505291654.j4TGsYlZ029012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291650 SWODY1 SPC AC 291649 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS 25 SW PSX 10 N ALI 30 ESE COT 10 SE HDO 55 W AUS 40 WSW TPL 10 E TPL 45 SW LFK 55 S LFK 15 NNE GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EVW 35 NNW PUC 50 ESE U24 20 ENE MLF 30 W MLF 30 SE ELY 35 NNE ELY 45 W ENV 50 NW ENV 50 SSW TWF 35 NNW TWF 25 E SUN 30 NNW PIH 45 SE IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 30 SE EVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 45 E AMA 50 SW AMA 35 SW TCC 20 NNE LVS 15 NE ALS 50 WSW COS 20 NW COS 25 SSE LIC 50 SSE GLD 40 NNW CNK 40 SSE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25 N COU 30 ESE MKC 30 WSW ICT GAG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO TCL 30 W AUO 25 NNW DHN 20 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 45 WNW FLG 40 ESE SGU LOL 35 WNW SVE 15 WNW LMT 25 ESE SLE OLM 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 15 NE LWS 55 WSW MSO 50 W GTF 30 E GTF 30 WNW LWT 50 ESE LWT 45 NE SHR 50 N DGW AIA 15 ESE BBW 25 S OLU 30 ENE OMA 20 ESE MCW 20 ESE MKT 60 SW FAR 20 SE P24 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 20 E BHB ...CONT... 10 S ACY 20 ESE HGR 20 NNW MGW 35 NE ZZV 20 N CMH 30 NNW LEX 10 SW SDF 10 ESE EVV 25 NNW HOP 25 NNW BNA 20 SSE CSV 35 NW AND 40 SE CAE 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 30 SSE GNV 20 W CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN ID INTO CENTRAL UT... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED COLD TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED MID/UPR LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN CA. THIS LEAVES A CONTINUED BLOCKING LIKE PATTERN OVER THE NRN U.S. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT BASICALLY REACHED FROM SERN CO THRU NRN MO AND CENTRAL IL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BLOCK ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. PREVIOUS DAYS OF CONVECTION HAVE LEFT A COLLECTION OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARIES ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FOR AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS. NAM MODEL TAKES NRN CA LOW AND MOVES IT SLOWLY ESEWD TOWARDS SWRN UT. THE NAMKF HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS UT AND THEN BREAKS OFF THE WRN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH AND RETROGRADE IT INTO MT. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE WITH HEATING THE APPROACHING FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN CO NEWD INTO NRN MO. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... MODELS DEPICTED SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ENHANCING UVVS IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW OVER SERN/E CENTRAL CO AND MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM S CENTRAL KS ENEWD INTO W CENTRAL MO. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...SRN AREAS OF TX EWD THRU THE LWR MS VLY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 12Z RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ASSOCD VORTICITY MAX OVER W CENTRAL TX IN THE MAF-ABI-SJT VICINITY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WAVE...AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD/SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF TX...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING AN MCS DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAN THE 12Z NAM MODEL. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF TX WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA AS BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 M2/S2 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ...CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN NV THRU THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN PARTS OF ID SWWD INTO ERN NV/WRN UT. STEEP LAPSE RATES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5C/KM INDICATES MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 19:55:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 14:55:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505292005.j4TK5rHL015631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291956 SWODY1 SPC AC 291954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE HOU 20 SE VCT 10 ESE NIR 35 NE COT HDO 55 W AUS 40 WSW TPL 50 E ACT 15 SW LFK 40 NW BPT 25 ENE HOU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EVW 35 WNW PUC 50 ESE U24 20 NE MLF 50 WNW MLF 20 N ELY 10 SSE EKO 15 NE OWY 60 NNW OWY 45 E BOI 35 NE SUN 40 WNW IDA 45 SW JAC 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 30 S EVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 45 E AMA 50 SW AMA 35 SW TCC 20 NNE LVS 15 NE ALS 50 WSW COS 25 NW COS 20 NNE LHX 55 NNW GCK 35 NNW CNK 40 SSE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25 N COU 30 ESE MKC 30 WSW ICT GAG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 55 E P07 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD GWO 35 SSE CBM 30 WSW AUO 40 NNE DHN 20 ESE DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 45 WNW FLG 40 ESE SGU LOL 35 WNW SVE 15 WNW LMT 25 ESE SLE OLM 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 15 NE LWS 55 WSW MSO 50 W GTF 30 E GTF 30 WNW LWT 50 ESE LWT 45 NE SHR 50 N DGW AIA 15 ESE BBW 25 S OLU 30 ENE OMA 20 ESE MCW 20 ESE MKT 60 SW FAR 20 SE P24 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 20 E BHB ...CONT... 10 S ACY 20 ESE HGR 20 NNW MGW 35 NE ZZV 20 N CMH 30 NNW LEX 10 SW SDF 10 ESE EVV 25 NNW HOP 25 NNW BNA 20 SSE CSV 35 NW AND 40 SE CAE 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 30 SSE GNV 20 W CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST/PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE DEEP S... ...S AND E TX... MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SURGE INLAND IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS WITH 70-75F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST WWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER FROM MORNING MCS AND STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING NEWD VCNTY BIG BEND AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX THIS EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND ALONG THE MEXICAN MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING. 12Z MEXICAN RAOBS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST 30-35KT H5 FLOW WAS WRAPPING NEWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE AND GIVEN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. MOREOVER... ONE OR TWO TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK. IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR MORE MCS WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING. ONE PERHAPS MAY CONGEAL OVER THE MID-UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CLIPPING SRN LA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TSTM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP ESEWD OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTO SCNTRL/DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. BOTH CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... A COOL SURGE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STALLED OVER SERN CO THIS AFTN WITH MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SERN CO MTNS. WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS ACROSS NERN NM...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE PLAINS IS HEATING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN RECENT DAYS...THOUGH IT REMAINS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO. PRIND THAT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS SERN CO AND THE RATON MESA NERN NM WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST. THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS EVOLVING SWD THROUGH THE TX/OK PNHDLS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND MONDAY WILL HAVE A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL. ...DEEP S... H5 VORT MAX CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE MS DELTA REGION WITH AN EXPANSIVE TSTM CLUSTER WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN MS. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ATOP A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DROPPING SWD FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN VLY. BUT...SRN PORTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EWD ALONG AN AXIS OF MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS SRN AL AND THE EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL THROUGH THIS EVE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND WITH EWD EXTENT. ...NRN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN NV UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS FROM ERN NV AND SRN ID INTO NRN UT THROUGH EVENING. MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AOA 45 KTS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES. ..RACY.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 00:57:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 19:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505300107.j4U17XL1027825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300102 SWODY1 SPC AC 300100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW NIR 35 NW NIR 15 E SAT 35 NNE CLL 25 SW LFK 45 NNW BPT 30 W BPT 35 E NIR 15 WSW NIR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CVS 20 SSE TCC 35 SE LVS 40 SW RTN 30 WNW TAD LHX GCK 15 SSE DDC 50 NNE GAG 15 S GAG 50 ENE AMA 55 NE CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BYI 20 SE TWF 30 NW TWF 25 WSW SUN 35 ENE SUN IDA 55 SE IDA 35 E MLD 40 SE BYI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW P07 25 WNW P07 10 SSE FST 40 ENE FST 30 SSE BWD 45 S DAL 10 SE TYR 45 SE SHV 40 SSE MLU 40 ENE JAN 15 E SEM 20 NE TOI 25 N DHN 20 SE DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 25 SSW BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE ACY 10 NNE IPT 15 SSE JHW 15 NNE YNG 10 N UNI 30 N LEX 15 NNW EVV 20 E MDH 20 E CGI 30 SSW PAH BNA 25 SW HKY 30 NNW FLO 10 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE FMY AGR 35 SSE GNV 20 W CTY ...CONT... 20 SSE FHU 35 NW SOW 20 S U17 30 WSW 4HV 20 SW U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE 4LW 60 NNW 4LW 30 N RDM 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 50 E S80 50 WSW COD 25 E CPR 35 ESE AIA 35 NNW GRI 45 WNW DSM 30 W ALO 35 WSW RST 30 NNE RWF 15 N BIS 75 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE ID... ...GULF COAST STATES... RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TX WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EAST TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. A VORT MAX ANALYZED OVER WCNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE REGION PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NE TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA...CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 75 F ARE CREATING STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS IN SE TX AND LA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH SUPERCELL LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE A TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH TORNADO THREAT MAY DROP OFF SOME...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LOW MOVES EWD. THE MCS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS LA REACHING SRN MS LATE TONIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SE CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO MO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE NEW STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS HOWEVER...A FEW MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ...SRN ID/NW UT/NE NV... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER NRN NV WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING NWD ACROSS NRN NV INTO SRN ID. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WHICH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SERN ID. DUE TO SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 01:15:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 20:15:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505300125.j4U1Pw7Q002170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300117 SWODY1 SPC AC 300116 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW NIR 35 NW NIR 15 E SAT 35 NNE CLL 25 SW LFK 45 NNW BPT 30 W BPT 35 E NIR 15 WSW NIR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CVS 20 SSE TCC 35 SE LVS 40 SW RTN 30 WNW TAD LHX GCK 15 SSE DDC 50 NNE GAG 15 S GAG 50 ENE AMA 55 NE CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BYI 20 SE TWF 30 NW TWF 25 WSW SUN 35 ENE SUN IDA 55 SE IDA 35 E MLD 40 SE BYI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW P07 25 WNW P07 10 SSE FST 40 ENE FST 30 SSE BWD 45 S DAL 10 SE TYR 45 SE SHV 40 SSE MLU 40 ENE JAN 15 E SEM 20 NE TOI 25 N DHN 20 SE DHN PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 25 SSW BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE ACY 10 NNE IPT 15 SSE JHW 15 NNE YNG 10 N UNI 30 N LEX 15 NNW EVV 20 E MDH 20 E CGI 30 SSW PAH BNA 25 SW HKY 30 NNW FLO 10 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE FMY AGR 35 SSE GNV 20 W CTY ...CONT... 20 SSE FHU 35 NW SOW 20 S U17 30 WSW 4HV 20 SW U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE 4LW 60 NNW 4LW 30 N RDM 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 50 E S80 50 WSW COD 25 E CPR 35 ESE AIA 35 NNW GRI 45 WNW DSM 30 W ALO 35 WSW RST 30 NNE RWF 15 N BIS 75 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD ID... ...GULF COAST STATES... RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TX WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EAST TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. A VORT MAX ANALYZED OVER WCNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE REGION PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NE TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA...CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 75 F ARE CREATING STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS IN SE TX AND LA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE A TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY DROP OFF SOME...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LOW MOVES EWD. THE MCS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS LA REACHING SRN MS LATE TONIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SE CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO MO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE NEW STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS HOWEVER...A FEW MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ...SRN ID/NW UT/NE NV... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER NRN NV WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING NWD ACROSS NRN NV INTO SRN ID. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WHICH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SERN ID. DUE TO SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 05:37:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 00:37:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505300547.j4U5luST030148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300545 SWODY1 SPC AC 300543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MAF 20 SSW HOB 30 NW RTN 25 W COS 30 NE DEN 25 ENE AKO 25 NNE GLD 60 N GCK 45 NNW GAG 30 NW ABI 40 SE BGS 20 SSE MAF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 WNW BPT 30 WNW POE 40 SSW JAN 30 WSW TOI 20 SSW DHN 10 SE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SSW ABQ 75 SE PGA 50 SSE ELY 30 WNW TWF 55 N BOI 40 S BKE 80 S BNO 60 ENE SVE 40 ENE RBL 30 WNW MHS 40 NE BLI ...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 35 NNW WRL 30 SW CDR 25 NW LBF HSI 35 SSW FNB 35 W JEF 10 SW MTO 40 NNW DNV 45 NNE ALO 40 ENE ABR 50 ENE BIS 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... A BROAD UPPER-LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SCNTRL US WILL SLIDE EWD TODAY SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND EWD FROM A LOW IN ERN TX/LA EWD ACROSS CNTRL MS...CNTRL AL INTO GA. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS LA AND MS. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WHICH COULD IMPEDE SFC HEATING. WHERE SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR...THE MID 60 TO MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON IN SRN MS...SHOW 25 TO 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. AS THE MCS SPREADS EWD DURING THE DAY...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH NEW STORMS THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE MCS ONGOING NOW IN SE TX AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE 0-1 KM SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A LARGE MCS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD CAUSE THE INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS/CO HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW OVER NV WILL OPEN AND SLIDE EWD TODAY INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND MIDDAY SPREADING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE CO SHOW SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN CO AND NE NM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH FASTER MOVING STORMS. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION... AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO ERN NY...ERN PA EXTENDING SWD ACROSS VA. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S F LIKELY RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY AFTERNOON. A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE MODERATE SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 12:52:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 07:52:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505301302.j4UD2sjT014307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301259 SWODY1 SPC AC 301258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MAF CNM LVS 15 S COS LIC 40 W GLD GLD 15 NE GCK 45 NNW GAG 30 NW ABI 40 SE BGS 25 SSE MAF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DPG SLC 20 SSE EVW 50 WNW CAG 50 W EGE MTJ 35 NNW CEZ 10 N U17 10 E BCE 10 E MLF 25 W U24 DPG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB 25 SSE CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW GLS 45 SW LFK 35 NW POE 40 SSW JAN TOI 35 NE ABY 25 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 35 NNW WRL 30 SW CDR 30 SSE HSI 45 SW OJC 45 ESE TBN 25 E MDH 30 NNE DNV 45 NNE ALO 15 NNW AXN 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 WSW BCE 30 NW ELY 30 WNW TWF 55 N BOI 40 S BKE 80 S BNO 60 ENE SVE 40 ENE RBL 40 SW MHS 40 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 20 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 50 ESE DLH RHI 45 SE ESC 10 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT/CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES... ...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES... PREFER FASTER GFS SOLUTION OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CYCLONE ... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TX...MOVING EWD INTO MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THREAT AND COVERAGE IS COMPLICATED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN GULF THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION CLUSTER...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN MS/SERN LA..TO MOVE EWD TROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT SHOULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION. BIGGEST CONCERN IS DENSE CLOUD CANOPY THAT COVERS AREA FROM GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING WITH CONVECTION SOUTH OF AL/FL PANHANDLE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS FROM SERN LA/SRN MS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SWRN AL/FL PANHANDLE AS WEAKENING CONVECTION/ THINNING CLOUDS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT AS LINE MOVES EWD. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS EWD INTO SRN GA WHERE MORE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN TX/SRN LA AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EWD. ...UT/WRN CO... AS A SMALL...BUT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW...LOCATED NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER SWEEPS EWD TODAY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE ROTATION IN STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IN WRN UT WILL BE HAIL. HOWEVER..AS THE FORCING SHIFTS EWD...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD...SHARP TROUGH ALOFT WITH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SERN WY SWD INTO CENTRAL NM BY 00Z. THOUGH STRONG LIFT IS FORECAST ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL MOIST NELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. CLOUDS ALSO COVER SERN CO/ERN NM THIS MORNING...BUT A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN SOME SUNSHINE/HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. IF MLCAPES CAN REACH 1500-2000 J/KG AS DEPICTED BY MODELS...THEN 30-40KT MID LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT TORNADOES. THE STORM DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP A COLD POOL THIS EVENING...WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT IN EXTREME SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FROM ACROSS NRN VA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY PROVIDE A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 16:15:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 11:15:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505301624.j4UGOueu001382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301619 SWODY1 SPC AC 301618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PUC 45 NNE PUC 30 N VEL 45 SE RKS 40 SW LAR 45 E LIC 10 ESE LBL 30 W GAG 20 NNE CDS 60 WNW ABI 35 SE BGS 60 SSE MAF 20 S INK 25 NNE CNM 45 NE 4CR 65 NNW LVS 30 S ALS 45 NNW DRO 40 SSW CNY 40 SW PUC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HOU 60 E CLL 15 ENE LFK 45 N POE 30 WSW LUL 50 SSW SEM 25 ESE DHN 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AXN 45 SW FAR 30 NE DIK 10 WNW GDV 80 WNW MLS 35 NNE BIL 35 NNE COD 45 SSE SHR 20 NW CDR 25 E GRI 35 SSE BIE 30 NNE TOP 45 NNW COU 20 N DEC 25 NNW LAF 35 WSW LNR 20 W MSP 15 WNW AXN ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N TPH 65 SSE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SW MHS 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GSB 35 NE RWI 40 N RWI 30 E DAN 35 S PSK 35 N CSV 25 SSW BNA 50 NE MSL 30 E CHA 30 NW CAE 30 SSW SOP 20 WSW GSB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL MT TODAY WITH A VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SERN TX WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EWD WITH STRONGER FLOW S OF UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER GULF. COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS SPREAD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH CROSSING ROCKIES MOVING INTO WRN CO ATTM. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THRU ERN UT INTO SRN NV. CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED THE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OFF SHORE OF GULF COAST. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 40-50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CROSS CO/NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. COLD ADVECTION WITH TROUGH COUPLED WITH HEATING WILL CREATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN CO/ERN UT FOR RATHER EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NERN UT AND WRN CO. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. REF MCD #1073 FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CURRENTLY STABLE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE. PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DESTABILIZE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO SWD INTO ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE. WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM/SERN CO. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW LCL'S NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE MORE INTO A SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AS THEY PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS PLAINS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL INCREASING. ...GULF COASTAL REGIONS... WHILE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NOW OFFSHORE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TX EWD TO FL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR. WHILE SHEAR MUCH OF GULF STATES IS RELATIVELY WEAK...A LITTLE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AVAILABLE WITH AND E OF WEAK UPPER LOW ERN TX FOR POSSIBLE MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KT AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MULTICELLULAR. ...SERN FL... HAVE ADDED LOW PROB'S OF SEVERE SERN FL WHERE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOTED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. REF #1074. ...NERN U.S... WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK UNDER E/W COLD TROUGH AXIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES FOR 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN HIGHLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN NY/NERN PA ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 20:48:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 15:48:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505302058.j4UKwFcW023460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302012 SWODY1 SPC AC 302010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CNY 10 W VEL 30 N VEL 45 SE RKS 40 SW LAR 45 E LIC 10 ESE LBL 30 W GAG 20 NNE CDS 60 WNW ABI 35 SE BGS 60 SSE MAF 20 S INK 25 NNE CNM 45 NE 4CR 65 NNW LVS 30 S ALS 45 NNW DRO 30 SE CNY 40 NNE CNY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HOU 60 E CLL 15 ENE LFK 45 N POE 30 WSW LUL 50 SSW SEM 25 ESE DHN 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AXN 45 SW FAR 30 NE DIK 10 WNW GDV 80 WNW MLS 35 NNE BIL 35 NNE COD 45 SSE SHR 60 S PHP 10 SE OFK 30 ESE LNK 30 NNE TOP 45 NNW COU 20 N DEC 25 NNW LAF 35 WSW LNR 20 W MSP 15 WNW AXN ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N TPH 65 SSE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SW MHS 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GSB 35 NE RWI 60 SW RIC 15 SSE LYH PSK 35 N CSV 25 SSW BNA 50 NE MSL 30 E CHA 25 SE SPA 30 SSW SOP 20 WSW GSB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CO INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES AND ERN NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA/NV ON SUNDAY HAS PHASED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADED INTO MT FROM ELONGATED TROUGH THAT WAS LOCKED IN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS TAKEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX OVER THE UT/CO BORDER AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER NWRN CO WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN CA. ...CO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND TX... AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS CO THOUGH TONIGHT... LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE DEN AREA AND STRENGTHEN AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACCORDING TO 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS WITH VALUES AROUND 7.5C/KM. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 55 KT AND BRN SHEAR ABOVE 100 M2/S2. THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... LEFTOVER QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 8C/KM INDICATE THE THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND... HAVE EXPENDED LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION AS DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN -20 TO -25C ALOFT TEMPERATURES HAS RESULTED IN INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MANY OF THESE ARE LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF PROVIDING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 00:45:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 19:45:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505310055.j4V0tDbr008599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310031 SWODY1 SPC AC 310029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE FST 25 N INK 55 SW TCC 30 WSW PUB 30 NE DEN 50 NW AKO 25 SSW SNY 40 W IML 55 SSE GLD 10 ESE LBL 35 NNW CDS 50 ENE BGS 55 W SJT 35 NE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N TPH 65 SSE TVL 30 ENE SAC 15 NNE RBL MFR 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIN 10 NNW DEC 40 N CMI 25 WSW CGX 35 NW LSE 10 WNW AXN 30 WSW JMS 20 WNW GDV 85 WNW MLS 25 N BIL 35 S BIL 35 S SHR 55 SSW PHP 10 SE OFK 15 NE STJ 40 S IRK 30 S UIN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GSB 15 E RWI 50 N RWI 45 ESE LYH PSK 55 WSW LOZ 40 E BNA 55 SSE BNA 35 W CHA 50 NNW AHN 25 SE SPA 30 SSW SOP 25 SW GSB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE EWD MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG ASCENT SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SRN CO. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 50S F AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING IN SE CO AND NE NM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...KEEPING THE TORNADO THREAT GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO...THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE FROM ERN CO TO WEST TX WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS IN FAR ERN CO. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MCS ENTERS WRN KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...SRN GA/FL... AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN GA WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND ACROSS ERN FL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY PARTIALLY DUE TO 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE. THE MARGINAL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 05:29:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 00:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505310539.j4V5dOTf011163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310536 SWODY1 SPC AC 310534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE AUS 30 NNW SAT 15 WNW JCT 15 SSW BGS 20 S TCC 55 SSE RTN 30 ESE RTN 45 N CAO 10 E EHA 30 WNW GAG 30 ENE GAG 20 SSW HUT 35 SSW OLU 20 E OLU 15 WNW OMA 20 SSE OMA TOP 40 N PRX 45 S TYR 20 ENE CLL 30 SSW CLL 25 SE AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 20 WSW AXN FOD 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 25 SSW P07 35 SSW INK 30 SE SAF 50 NE 4SL 25 W ALS 55 N ALS 55 ENE GUC 25 ESE ASE 15 NNE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 40 N ENV 40 SSW EKO 25 WSW BAM 60 NNW LOL 25 ENE SVE 30 NW RNO 65 WNW BIH 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 30 NE MHS 70 N 4LW 25 SSW PDT 50 SE EPH 15 NW YKM 15 E AST 25 NNE UIL ...CONT... 25 NNE HVR 65 ESE HVR 65 WNW MLS 20 SE MLS 40 N REJ 40 NNE Y22 35 SSE P24 50 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 20 ENE LCI 20 SSE CON 20 SW BOS 10 SSW EWB ...CONT... 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20 WSW LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY SPREADING STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY PUSHING A WEAKENING MCS EWD ACROSS OK AND KS. FARTHER WEST...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE MORNING MCS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TX AND THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY IN THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE BACKED SFC WINDS AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS FORECAST BY THE GFS/NAM AND NAMKF TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS NW TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS WITH A TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE BY THE LATE EVENING AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WCNTRL KS. HOW LONG THIS MCS CAN PERSIST DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF PARTIAL CLEARING CAN OCCUR...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN OK EXTENDING NWD INTO SE NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER AND FASTER MOVING STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ...NRN FL/SRN GA... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS SRN GA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NRN FL BY MID-AFTERNOON SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 12:36:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 07:36:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505311246.j4VCkStN015412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311244 SWODY1 SPC AC 311242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLL 20 NW VCT COT DRT 25 E FST INK 60 E 4CR 30 SE LVS 25 SSE CAO DHT 45 ENE AMA 15 ENE CDS SPS 45 NE DAL 30 NW TYR CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 20 WSW AXN FOD 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 20 SSW INK 15 SE ROW 30 SE SAF 55 SSW ALS 30 WNW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 40 N ENV 40 SSW EKO 25 WSW BAM 60 NNW LOL 25 ENE SVE 30 NW RNO 65 WNW BIH 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 30 NE MHS 70 N 4LW 25 SSW PDT 50 SE EPH 15 NW YKM 15 E AST 25 NNE UIL ...CONT... 25 NNE HVR 65 ESE HVR 65 WNW MLS 20 SE MLS 40 N REJ 40 NNE Y22 35 SSE P24 50 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20 WSW LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 35 NNW BML 25 WNW LCI 20 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 15 SSE PVD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF TX AND ERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SRN MT THIS MORNING...WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE MT LOW SWWD ACROSS UT...WITH A SPEED MAX AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MOVING ESEWD THROUGH NRN AZ. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER MS IS TRAPPED UNDER UPPER RIDGE...LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NWD INTO CANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN UPPER LOW TO LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS... ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AROUND THE LBB AREA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/ DISSIPATE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DECREASES AND STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER MAF 12 SOUNDING. THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS...SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT BOUNDARY LOCATION AT MID/LATE AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT TRACK OF STORMS SUGGEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE TO A TCC-LBB-ABI LINE. THE 850 MB PROGS ALSO SHOW A THERMAL GRADIENT CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THIS FORECAST SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP WEAKEN CAP THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SPEED MAX. THE COMBINATION OF VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM AND 45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 45-55 KT. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STORMS MERGING INTO AN MCS...AND THEN MOVING SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS SWRN TX. BOTH WIND AND HAIL THREATS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX. OTHER NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING EXTENDS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH FROM NEB SWD INTO WRN OK/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RESULTANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION INHIBITING HEATING/STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM WRN/CENTRAL OK NWD ACROSS KS AND NEB. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING MAY RESULT IN AN INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS SWD INTO ERN TX...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A UPPER LOW OVER MS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SERN LA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN AL AND INTO THE NRN FL PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ...SRN FL... LINE OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING EWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED WEAK WINDS/SHEAR...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THIS MORNING BEFORE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE. ..IMY/JEWELL.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 16:15:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 11:15:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505311624.j4VGOrRn001648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311616 SWODY1 SPC AC 311615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE HOB 50 SSE CVS 45 WNW LBB 40 E LBB 55 NNW ABI 45 ENE ABI 25 ESE BWD 55 SE BWD 60 E JCT 30 SE JCT 35 SW JCT 60 SW SJT 30 ESE HOB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLL 15 N VCT 35 E COT 30 SE DRT 25 E FST INK 60 E 4CR 30 SE LVS 25 SSE CAO DHT 45 ENE AMA 15 ENE CDS SPS 45 NE DAL 30 NW TYR CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BML 25 WNW LCI 20 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 15 SSE PVD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20 WSW LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 SSW CON 20 E ORH 10 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS 25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP 30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV 40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF TEXAS AND EASTERN PORTION OF NEW MEXICO... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGHS INTO NWRN U.S. THEN WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER PLAINS WITH ENERGY BEING DIVERTED AROUND CONTINUED BLOCKING RIDGE SERN CANADA. MUCH OF MONDAYS TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES IS HEADING NEWD INTO NRN PLAINS WHILE SRN PORTION OF THE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX TRACKS FROM SRN ROCKIES INTO SWRN TX TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM AN INITIALLY WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTRAL GULF COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ALONG GULF COAST TO FL. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SERN LA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ENEWD TO SWRN AL AGAIN AS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT PER 12Z NAM RUN. REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT SRN HIGH PLAINS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED AS SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD OVER W CENTRAL TX. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL WIND MAX HEADING SEWD INTO WRN TX BY THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION TO SUPPORT RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WCENTRAL TX HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO WEAKEN WHICH REFLECTS BOTH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES. WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINING GOOD MOISTURE FLUX ALONG ERN NM/TX BORDER...AND STRONG HEATING...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WITH BRN VALUES FROM 50-60 M2/SEC2...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP VICINITY TX ERN NM/TX BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT...SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A SEVERE MCS. THIS WOULD THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MCS MOVES SEWD THRU CENTRAL TX. ...FL... LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS FL PENINSULA THIS AM...TEMPORARILY REDUCING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SERN COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCERN IS THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM INDICATING THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL GULF COAST SWD INTO THE GULF. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT ...WITH SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BY 12Z WED. WITH A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND A NEW AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN THE AFTERNOON DY1 OUTLOOK FOR AT LEAST THE WRN FL COAST FOR TONIGHT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 20:27:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 15:27:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200505312037.j4VKbarT015517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 312019 SWODY1 SPC AC 312018 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E HOB 45 WNW LBB 25 NW PVW 35 ENE PVW 30 SSE CDS 55 WNW MWL 15 WNW SEP 40 ESE BWD 55 SSE BWD 25 ENE JCT 40 SSW SJT 55 SE MAF 40 E HOB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CLL 20 NNW VCT 35 E COT 30 SE DRT 25 E FST 45 NW HOB 65 ENE 4CR 35 SSW RTN 30 ESE RTN 25 ESE DHT 50 N CDS 20 ESE LTS 45 SSW ADM 40 S DUA 40 WSW TYR 20 SSE CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS 25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 40 NE MKL 40 ESE BNA 15 ENE AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP 30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV 40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ACY 25 ESE HGR 15 S LBE 20 S YNG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 40 N BML 15 SSW MWN 10 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 10 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 20 SE CTY 40 SSW GNV 40 NE PIE 35 E SRQ FMY 20 S FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM THROUGH WRN AND S CNTRL TX AND THE W CNTRL FL PENINSULA... ...NERN NM THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL TX... LATE THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN OK SWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE JUST S OF AMARILLO THEN WWD INTO NRN NM. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR JUNCTION NWWD THROUGH W TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR AMARILLO. THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF W TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING ESEWD MOVING VORT MAX OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MN WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME. FARTHER S IN MODERATE RISK AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG NRN EXTENTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND SPREAD SEWD DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. ...FL... STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN FL WHERE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS SRN FL TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL PORTIONS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THE CLUSTER OF CUMULUS IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN FL. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER W CNTRL FL WHEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE ERN GULF MAY MOVE ONSHORE...AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.