[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190026
SWODY1
SPC AC 190024

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PAH 25 SSW DYR
55 NNE GLH 30 SE GLH 30 ENE HEZ 25 S HEZ 40 WNW BTR 20 WNW LFT 15
NNE LCH 45 N BPT 20 ESE LFK 20 SSW GGG 45 N GGG 30 NW TXK 10 N FSM
15 SSW FYV 15 ESE JLN 20 NW SZL 35 SSE P35 40 SW OTM 30 WSW CID 15 E
CID 35 NNE MLI 20 ENE MMO 35 NW LAF 10 ENE HUF EVV 25 S PAH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDWEST/MS VLY REGION...
MODEST TO STRONG ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION
TONIGHT AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG RELATIVELY
TIGHT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM IA INTO NRN IL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY
LIMITED. ALTHOUGH...DEEP MIXING ACROSS WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS
AND NEAR CYCLONE CENTER FROM MO INTO SRN IA MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW TSTMS TO INITIATE THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION MAY INCREASE WITH SWD AND EWD EXTENT LATER THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG IMPULSE... CURRENTLY IDENTIFIED ON WV IMAGERY
CROSSING CO...MOVES EAST ACROSS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS FROM MO INTO AR AND THEN EWD TO IL. HOWEVER...LACK OF GREATER
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIRMASS...SHOULD KEEP
TSTM ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED OVER THESE AREAS.

...TX/LA LATE...
ETA APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME
GENERATING MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TX GULF COAST BY MORNING. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF SRN STREAM
PERTURBATIONS QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING MEXICO
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AND STRONGER
ASCENT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER TX GULF COAST
ACROSS WRN/NRN LA.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.