[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 132007
SWODY1
SPC AC 132006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
POE 25 WNW SHV 25 W ELD 50 N MLU 35 E TUP 35 NW AND 35 S SPA 45 ESE
AHN 15 NE AUO 50 ESE MEI 25 NNW MCB 35 NW POE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FHU 30 SSE PRC
10 NNE IGM 45 WNW GCN 80 SSW 4BL 25 ENE GUP 30 N TCS 10 S ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CHS 45 SSE AGS
40 NNE DHN 35 WNW GPT 25 ENE LCH 20 N BPT 40 W LFK 20 S TYR 30 ENE
TXK 25 E PBF 40 W LOZ 15 SSE BLF 25 E ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH...

...DEEP SOUTH...
19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1002 MB LOW VCNTY KSHV.  PREFRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDED EAST ALONG THE LA/AR BORDER INTO NRN MS AND NWRN AL AND
SWWD THROUGH E TX.  THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS
THE TN VLY INTO SRN AR AND NCNTRL TX AND SHOULD OVERTAKE THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT AND MOISTEN ALONG/S OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND DEW
POINTS 57-64F. GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER H5 TEMPERATURES...CINH IS
WEAKER ACROSS MS/AL AND A LITTLE STRONGER IN E TX/WRN LA.  A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES OF HEATING SHOULD ERASE/WEAKEN THIS CAP BY 22Z.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROTATING EWD THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX AND WILL BE MOVING EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW...EWD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
INCREASING UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

FIRST INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WHERE WEAKER CINH EXISTS...NAMELY NRN
MS EWD INTO AL.  ACTIVITY WILL THEN DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AS CAP IS
BREACHED ACROSS NRN LA BY 21-22Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LA
INTO NRN/CNTRL MS.  AS CELLS MATURE...DAMAGING WINDS/BOW ECHOES WILL
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF
MS/AL AS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME AND RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD EXIST.

..RACY.. 03/13/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.