[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101258
SWODY1
SPC AC 101257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST THU MAR 10 2005

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MDH 40 ESE VIH
40 WSW JEF 35 NNW SZL 10 NW P35 35 NE LWD 25 W MLI 35 NNE PIA 15 E
BMI 15 N MTO 35 ENE SLO 20 N MDH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MO/IL AREA...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE ERN STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES.  WITHIN THE
BROADER ERN TROUGH...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING
SSEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THE 12Z MPX
SOUNDING REVEALED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH OVER MN.  AS THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SSEWD...CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING SNOWS WITH WAA SHOULD ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 50 F ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
MO...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 30S BASED ON UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ARE
QUITE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD
TEMPERATURES BELOW 500 MB MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SBCAPE NEAR
100 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IL...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY OCCUR DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/10/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.