From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 03:54:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 22:54:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503010519.j215Jllp024815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010517 SWODY1 SPC AC 010515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FMN 55 WSW ALS 35 E TCC 40 W CSM 15 S OKC 25 SE MLC 35 NNW SHV 25 NE VCT 20 W NIR 25 SSW HDO 30 SW MAF 35 WSW ROW 30 SSE GUP 20 SW FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS NEXT UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MEAN INTERMOUNTAIN W RIDGE BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS FROM CNTRL CANADA SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP OVER ERN NM WITH WEAK WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM E-CNTRL NM TO THE UPPER TX COAST. ...NM INTO TX/SRN OK... INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED WITH SBCAPES AOB 100-200 J/KG. MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER THE POOR INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND FIELDS BELOW 6 KM AGL SUGGEST ANY SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL MORE ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL INTO N TX AND SRN OK WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG 30-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS. GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG AND AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAINLY OVER N TX. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND SPREAD AS FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..MEAD.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 11:38:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 06:38:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503011303.j21D3IoY028918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011301 SWODY1 SPC AC 011259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW FMN 50 NE U28 35 NNW CAG 25 NE 4FC 35 NE ALS 35 E TCC 40 W CSM 30 E OKC 40 ESE PGO 25 SSE TXK 20 WNW GLS 40 S VCT 25 SSW HDO 30 SW MAF 35 WSW ROW 45 SSW GNT 65 WSW FMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW AST 15 SW SLE 35 SW MFR 10 S RBL 45 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW OVER IND/OH WILL MOVE E/NE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER MANITOBA DROPS SE INTO THE OH VLY. IN THE SRN BRANCH...WELL-DEFINED IMPULSE NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS TODAY BEFORE ASSUMING SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE RED RIVER VLY OF TX EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF FOUR CORNERS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED LEE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN HI PLNS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL...HOWEVER...BE MEAGER AS SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION IS STILL IN PROGRESS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...SRN CO/NM INTO SRN OK/NRN AND CNTRL TX... COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE CO AND NM MOUNTAINS TODAY. GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY STRONG. COUPLED WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL AS THEY DRIFT/ DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER NRN AND CNTRL TX AND POSSIBLY SRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED /BASED NEAR 700 MB/ AND WILL FEED ON PACIFIC MOISTURE BROUGHT EWD WITH UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN 40-45 KTS CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF 300-400 J/KG MUCAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 15:10:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 10:10:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503011635.j21GZYIf004403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011632 SWODY1 SPC AC 011631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SE LRD 10 S LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 45 NNW BGS 25 ENE PVW 50 N CDS 45 WNW OKC 60 E OKC 30 E MLC 15 WSW TXK 50 ENE LFK 20 S BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S AST 30 N MFR 35 S RBL 15 NNW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW 4CR 15 W ONM 30 SSW GNT 45 SW CEZ 15 ESE VEL 35 SE RKS 35 WSW RWL 15 ESE RWL 15 SSE LAR 25 NE DEN 45 SSE LHX 35 NNE TCC 35 WNW CVS 15 SW 4CR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER WRN NM/ WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS TX TONIGHT AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF ASSOCIATED SLY LLJ WHICH WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD EXPAND INTO AN MCS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL/DRY...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND REMAIN ROOTED NEAR H85. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND HAIL AT OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NM HIGH PLAINS... COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE ERN NM PLAINS DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY BECOME COLLOCATE. ...PAC NW... MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPPER LOW NOW NEAR 41N/130W WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN CA/ORE COASTS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..EVANS/BROYLES.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 18:38:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 13:38:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503012003.j21K3Ght007476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012000 SWODY1 SPC AC 011958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 50 S SAT 35 NE DRT 25 WSW FST 25 SSE CNM 50 NW GDP ONM 50 NNW GUP 30 SSE CNY 35 SSW VEL 25 NNE VEL 45 ESE RKS 45 SW LAR 20 SE 4FC 25 ENE PUB 20 SSW LAA EHA 60 SSW LBL 45 WNW CSM 25 SSW OKC 20 WSW MLC 40 W TXK 30 N GGG 30 SSE TYR 10 WNW LFK 35 NNW BPT 25 SSE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO N TX... WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA MOVING ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...TCU AND CB HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NM/CO WITH A FEW ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING OVER NM LAST HOUR. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS W TX THIS EVENING AND TO NW/CNTRL TX BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE...AIRMASS ACROSS TX WAS QUITE DRY THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM THE PECOS VLY NWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEEP LAYER OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC/STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE DARK. ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER... AFTER DARK...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND LIFT AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE AS ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE STRENGTHENS. THIS PROCESS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE NM/TX BORDER EWD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THIS REGIME...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRONG SHEAR...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OFFSET THESE DEFICIENCIES FOR AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF A COUPLE OF HAIL STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..CARBIN.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 23:24:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 18:24:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503020049.j220nfQs005263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020047 SWODY1 SPC AC 020046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 50 S SAT 35 NE DRT 25 WSW FST 35 E GDP 50 NW GDP 10 W CEZ 20 NW GJT 50 SW CAG 30 N EGE 40 W COS 40 SE TAD 50 E DHT 35 W CSM 25 SSW OKC 20 WSW MLC 40 W TXK 30 N GGG 30 SSE TYR 25 SSE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM...TX AND SRN OK... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM N-CNTRL NM SEWD TO JUST E OF TCC WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TX /E AND NE OF SJT/. THE NM STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY CENTER TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED BY 00Z AMA SOUNDING. OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG AND N OF WNW-ESE ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MAF TO NEAR CLL WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME /PER LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS/. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT FROM VICINITY OF ONGOING TX STORMS NWD INTO SRN OK WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU NWD INTO W-CNTRL AND NRN TX WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG/ WILL CO-EXIST. ..MEAD.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 04:24:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 23:24:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503020548.j225mvK5005848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020546 SWODY1 SPC AC 020545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 SSW CDS 20 WSW CSM 10 NNE OKC 25 WSW FSM 25 W MEI 50 E LUL 30 W PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE TPH BAM 40 ESE OWY 40 NE ENV 30 SSW 4BL 45 NW GUP 15 NNE INW 20 NNE PRC 20 SE IGM 25 SE LAS 40 ESE TPH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WRN TX...CNTRL CO AND A LOWER-LATITUDE FEATURE EMBEDDED INTO SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH OVER BAJA CA. THE WRN TX TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES ESEWD WHILE UPSTREAM CO SYSTEM DIGS SEWD THROUGH OKLAHOMA. TO THE W...BAJA DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WRN PORTION OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE FROM CNTRL TX INTO NRN GULF WILL LIKELY SAG SWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW GENERATED FROM TSTM COMPLEX IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL TX. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMPOSITE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ...TX... TSTM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM CNTRL TX INTO LA...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUSTAINED...BUT WEAKENING WAA ALONG NOSE OF VEERING LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...THOUGH ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL...MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER S TX ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH APPROACH OF BAJA SYSTEM. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND WHAT EFFECT THICK...SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW-LATITUDE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO DEEP S TX OWING TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 11:40:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 06:40:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503021305.j22D5EbJ031566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021303 SWODY1 SPC AC 021301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TPH 80 NW WMC 70 WNW OWY 50 SW TWF 40 ENE U24 30 SSW 4BL 40 NW GUP 15 NNE INW 20 NE PRC 30 SE IGM 40 SE LAS 25 W TPH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT 35 SSW BGS 50 SSE LBB 45 WSW CDS 15 WSW CSM 10 NNW OKC 20 WSW FSM 25 ESE HOT 20 SE GLH 30 W MEI 45 E LUL 30 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE WNW TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS TODAY... DOWNSTREAM FROM LONG WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE W CST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE WRN AND S CNTRL STATES. LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ...LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS IN TX...SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ESE IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY. UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW IN SRN CO SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR ESE HEADING TODAY...AND REACH SW AR EARLY THURSDAY. FARTHER S...AN IMPULSE IS APPARENT IN THE MORE SRN STREAM OF FLOW CROSSING NRN PORTIONS OF BAJA AND SONORA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE BIG BEND REGION LATE TODAY AND CROSS DEEP S TX EARLY THURSDAY. FINALLY...EXPECT STRONGER DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING WRN NV TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE SRN GRT BASIN LATER IN THE PERIOD. AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE DATA SHOW WARM/STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER S TX...ENHANCED IN PLACES BY COMPOSITE STORM OUTFLOW. SURFACE DEWPOINTS S OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW 60S BY AFTERNOON AS MODEST MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUES. ...S TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF S TX THIS AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS APPROACH OF BAJA SYSTEM AND SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZE REGION. WHILE SETUP COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...GIVEN COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERAL WEAKNESSES ARGUE AGAINST AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE EWD MOVEMENT OF MEXICAN VORT...THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR /ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS/ WILL REMAIN S OF THE MEXICAN BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...STLT LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRESENCE OF THICK WARM CONVEYOR BELT CIRRUS WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT MITIGATE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION... THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL VEER TO A WLY COMPONENT FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST/ DEEPEST CONVERGENCE EWD INTO THE GULF. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO S TX. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS THAT MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 15:00:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 10:00:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503021625.j22GPVrx014773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021621 SWODY1 SPC AC 021620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TPH 25 ENE NFL WMC 40 NNE EKO 35 SSE U24 20 SW PGA 35 WSW GCN 10 E LAS 25 W TPH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 25 N SJT 35 NW MWL 40 SW TXK 15 ESE HEZ 25 N BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN TX... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS AIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...THOUGH OUTFLOW/SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED IN AN E-W FASHION FROM THE COASTAL BEND REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SRN STREAM REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TX WITH MODEST WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO AID DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND ONLY MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NEW STORMS DEVELOP. ..EVANS/BROYLES.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 18:42:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 13:42:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503022007.j22K6x2F000755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022004 SWODY1 SPC AC 022003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 30 SE HDO SAT 30 WNW AUS 40 SE BWD 30 WNW SEP 30 WNW MWL 45 N MWL 40 N FTW 35 S PRX 40 NW SHV 50 ESE SHV 40 NW BTR MSY BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAS 30 N DRA 40 N TPH 30 N U31 25 ESE BAM 45 W ENV 20 NE U24 50 NW 4HV 15 SW 4BL 75 NW GUP 40 NNE FLG 45 E LAS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/LA... ARC OF STRONG CONVECTION IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW/THERMAL GRADIENT TRAILING BACK WWD INTO S TX. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN TX...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING BENEATH STJ RELATED CIRRUS SHIELD. IN ADDITION TO BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS S TX... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WHERE LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH ASCENT FROM SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING OVER WRN MEXICO...SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING OVER S TX WHERE PRE-OUTFLOW INSTABILITY IS A BIT GREATER AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG. ...SRN GREAT BASIN... MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING MEAN WRN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY FROM ERN NV ACROSS SWRN UT AND NRN AZ NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING NOW OCCURRING. ...WRN KS/NEB... HIGH-BASED CU FIELD HAS EXPANDED ATOP LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS/LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO/WRN KS NWD TO THE BLACK HILLS. DESPITE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORT MAX ON THE ERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE...MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOCAL CLOUD SCALE MOISTENING CAN OCCUR TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM IN VERY WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF CG LIGHTNING POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO JUSTIFY A TSTM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 23:36:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 18:36:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503030101.j2311d3L011537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030058 SWODY1 SPC AC 030057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE LAS 40 NNE DRA 40 N TPH 30 N U31 25 E BAM 40 W ENV 35 WNW DPG 50 ESE U24 30 ENE U17 65 ESE PGA 30 E GCN 55 ENE LAS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 60 ENE P07 30 SW SJT 20 E SJT 45 SSW BWD 40 NW AUS 30 SE AUS 45 WNW HOU 20 NW BPT 30 ENE LCH 25 N BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL THROUGH S TX... THE MCS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NW GULF WWD THROUGH S TX FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO NEAR LAREDO. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. RAOBS FROM CRP AND BRO SHOW THE WARM SECTOR OVER S TX TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS HEATING SUBSIDES...CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER SW TX BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANGELO WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD MODEST MOIST AXIS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. ...SRN NV THROUGH SW UT... PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. ...KS AND OK... AN AREA OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD THROUGH WRN KS IS SUPPORTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 04:20:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 23:20:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503030544.j235ioSd003310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030542 SWODY1 SPC AC 030540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR 30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 S HOB 15 SSE ABQ 40 NNE GCN 40 ESE MLF 50 E U24 35 NNE U28 35 NE TAD 60 WSW GAG 45 NNE CSM 30 N END 10 WSW MHK 20 ENE STJ 40 SE IRK 25 NNW STL 15 SW SLO 40 NE DYR 35 NNE LIT 45 E ACT 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW 4BK 45 WSW MHS 20 WNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THURSDAY WITH NWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AREA. SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST IN THE W WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. ...ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND SW OK... VORT MAX NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SHIFT TO SLY ACROSS W TX AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF S OF BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL PERSIST IN THE POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TX NWD THROUGH OK. DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM W TX NWD INTO PARTS OF OK AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECT EWD OVER THE MODEST MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF MOISTURE GRADIENT AS MIXING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF W AD W CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...BULK OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION AND ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIAL HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS W AND W CNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MO... NRN STREAM VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE FROM ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 11:40:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 06:40:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503031305.j23D55c0008965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031302 SWODY1 SPC AC 031300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR 30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR 30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 S HOB 40 S ABQ GUP 55 SW GCN 45 SW SGU 30 ENE P38 35 SW U24 50 E U24 35 NNE U28 35 NE TAD 60 WSW GAG 45 NNE CSM 30 N END 10 WSW MHK 20 ENE STJ 40 SE IRK 15 SW SLO 40 NE DYR 40 NNE LIT 35 NE DUA 55 E ACT 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW 4BK 45 WSW MHS 20 WNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MULTI STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD. TWO DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE LOOSELY-DEFINED MIDDLE BRANCH JET WILL BE THE MAIN DYNAMIC FEATURES MODULATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IMPULSE...A SMALL CLOSED LOW NOW OVER SRN UT... SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO NE NM LATE TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER N...WEAKER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SD SHOULD DROP SE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO BY THIS EVENING...AND INTO NRN AR BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...APPROACH OF UT DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING OVER ERN NM...AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN KS TO SRN MO. ...ERN NM/NW TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE AZ AND NRN NM LATER AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ESE MOVEMENT OF UPPER IMPULSE DESTABILIZE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE MOUNTAIN STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE INTO THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM AND W TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OVER REGION WILL BE LIMITED IN WAKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE NOW IN THE NWRN GULF. BUT EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH LEE TROUGH. THESE CELLS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. THE CONVECTION MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER THAT CONTINUES SE INTO W CNTRL TX LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY IMPROVING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...COMBINATION OF DIURNAL COOLING AND LOWERING TERRAIN SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ...ERN KS INTO SW MO/NE OK/NW AR... WEAK SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM SD UPPER VORT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A SMALL AREA OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER PARTS OF KS/WRN MO. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION INVOF FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 15:05:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 10:05:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503031630.j23GU0Rm005939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031627 SWODY1 SPC AC 031625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE FMY 35 ENE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MAF 25 NE ONM 25 WSW GUP 60 NNE INW 15 WNW PGA 35 NE BCE 25 SSW U28 40 E GJT 45 E GUC 20 NNW TAD 45 N EHA 40 SW P28 35 SSW HUT 30 SSE SLN 30 SSW FNB 20 SSW P35 35 S UIN 15 ENE EVV 35 ESE OWB HOP JBR 65 N LIT 30 SE FYV 25 NE MLC 25 N DUA 15 S FTW 25 S SEP 35 S ABI 35 E BGS 30 NNW MAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL POSE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MO INTO TX/NM. ...KS/MO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SD. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MO BY EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THIS REGION...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IL. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL AID IN A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ...TX/OK... WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTHWEST TX. FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE QUITE LIMITED IN THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY COLD/UNSTABLE FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA ALSO APPEARS LOW. ..HART/JEWELL.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 18:32:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 13:32:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503031957.j23JuxLn016134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031954 SWODY1 SPC AC 031953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 15 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FYV 40 NE OKC 20 ESE END 35 NW PNC 25 WNW EMP TOP 20 ENE MKC 15 WNW SLO 20 NNE EVV OWB 35 SSW OWB 35 SSW PAH 25 E FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E BGS 10 SSW 4CR 50 WSW GUP 40 SSE PGA 25 NNE PGA 20 SSW 4HV CNY MTJ 35 E DHT 15 S LTS 35 NW MWL 45 WSW MWL 25 SSE ABI 30 E BGS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS NEB. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE OZARKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS ERN KS CURRENTLY NEAR 500 J/KG AND THESE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 J/KG BY 00Z. STORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY NEAR MKC AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW TO ESE FROM NE KS TO CNTRL MO. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE DEVELOPING SWWD INTO NE OK AND MOVING SEWD INTO SRN MO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 20 TO 25 KT AT 500 MB...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP THE STORMS ORGANIZE BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE 22Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME. ...NE NM/WEST TX... A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX WHICH WILL LIKELY AID STORM INITIATION ON THE CAPROCK IN ERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM SJT EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR LBB WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOCATED WNW OF LBB. INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THIS AREA WHERE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT NEAR CLOVIS NM. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 55 KT. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING IF INSTABILITY CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. THE 19Z MODIFIED SOUNDING AT SJT IN NSHARP SHOWS SBCAPE VALUE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSUMING THIS ENVIRONMENT ADVECTS NWD BY THIS EVENING INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD...THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SOUTH FL... THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN GULF OF MEX AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE SRN FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SRN FL LATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 23:17:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 18:17:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503040041.j240fwvq021825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040039 SWODY1 SPC AC 040037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 15 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FYV 20 NW MKO 30 SE PNC 10 SE ICT 30 NW EMP 20 W FLV 45 S IRK 30 S DEC 25 SSW HUF 30 NE OWB 25 NNE HOP 45 ENE DYR 20 ESE FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BGS ROW 15 NNE ONM 40 WSW ABQ 30 SW 4SL 25 NNW 4SL 35 SW ALS 35 ESE ALS 35 SSW EHA 40 NNE CSM 35 E FSI 20 NE MWL BWD 25 SE BGS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...W AND NW TX THROUGH SW OK... THE STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH W AND NW TX TONIGHT. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE FROM ERN NM INTO THE NRN PARTS OF W TX. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS PROMOTED A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EAST AND INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NW TX. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED SEVERE EVENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MO... ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR IS SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALSO...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT INTENSITIES SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..DIAL.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 04:13:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 23:13:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503040537.j245beEc028483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040535 SWODY1 SPC AC 040533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SFO 35 NW SAC 55 NNE SAC 10 NE TVL 30 NNE BIH 35 S DRA 35 SE IGM 65 WSW SOW 30 NE SAD 35 SE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SEP 15 WNW SPS 25 S ICT 15 SW JEF 15 N SLO 30 WSW BMG 20 SE LUK JKL 25 ESE TYS 25 N CHA 50 ENE ACT 20 NNE SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MRF 45 NE P07 45 W JCT 45 NNW HDO 25 SSE HDO 50 SSE LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THIS FEATURE. IN THE WRN STATES THE SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN SPLIT FROM THE NRN BRANCH AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND CUTS OFF OVER CA. ...ERN OK THROUGH SRN MO...NRN AR...KY AND TN... THE VORT MAX NOW OVER MO WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SERN U.S. TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE SRN OH AND TN VALLEYS. VORT MAX OVER ERN NM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM KS EWD THROUGH MO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD...AND BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXTEND FROM PARTS OF KY WWD THROUGH SRN MO AND INTO NERN OK. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS MAY ALSO PERSIST OVER PARTS OF TN...AR AND KY. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD OVER THE MODEST MOIST AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING FROM PARTS OF KY WWD THROUGH OK. VEERED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE SUGGEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE LIMITED. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A STRONGER NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...OFFSET FROM PEAK HEATING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 11:36:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 06:36:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503041301.j24D1VK5014731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041259 SWODY1 SPC AC 041257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE FSM 25 E TUL 30 NNW JLN 20 SSE VIH 25 WSW MVN 30 WSW BMG 25 SSW UNI 10 WNW BKW 30 WSW AVL 35 WSW CHA 25 ENE PBF 45 SE FSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MRY 20 S SAC 55 ESE TVL 55 NNE DRA 25 W GCN 40 SSE SOW 35 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MRF 35 NE FST 20 NNE BWD 20 WSW MWL 25 NNW SPS 40 NW ADM 30 N PRX 15 SE GGG 55 ENE CLL 40 NE COT 50 SSE LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN ACROSS CONUS TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SRN STREAM FROM SRN CA EWD TO THE GULF STATES...AND A NRN STREAM FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. WITHIN THIS BROADER SCALE FLOW REGIME...SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL HELP FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM THREATS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE FIRST THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA WILL BE TODAY FROM NE AR TO TN/KY IN ADVANCE OF A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING SEWD FROM MO/IL. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE ACROSS TN/KY. LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM SRN MO/NRN AR NEWD INTO KY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH /NOW OVER ERN ND AND NW MN/ AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE N. A CONTINUED FEED OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W/WNW...RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES PROFILES...AND MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A SECOND THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS N/NE TX TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM NW TX. A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS N CENTRAL TX...AND THIS CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ESEWD AND AWAY FROM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION TO THE W...THUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM THE RIO GRANDE NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND A SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THIS AREA FROM BAJA. LASTLY...A SRN STREAM TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND OVER SRN CA. COOLING AND MOISTENING OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD SUPPORT THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND AN ATTENDANT THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA TODAY. ISOLATED WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT AS FAR E AS AZ. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 15:08:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 10:08:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503041633.j24GXX94026522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041631 SWODY1 SPC AC 041629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE LBB 40 NE ABI 25 W SEP 10 S BWD 15 ESE SJT 65 SSE MAF 30 S INK 30 NW INK 35 NE HOB 70 ESE LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DAL 15 WSW DUA 25 WNW PRX 35 W TXK 25 SSE GGG 40 SW TYR 25 SSE DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 20 WSW FAT 25 ENE BIH 30 SSW DRA 20 SE LAS 35 NE IGM 40 N PRC 25 SSE FLG 45 W SOW 50 NNW SAD 25 NW SAD 60 N TUS 40 SSE PHX 80 S GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HSS 40 S TYS 55 SSE BNA 35 E MKL 45 WSW ARG 25 ESE HRO 20 ESE UMN 25 NNE SGF 25 SE VIH 30 NNW EVV 25 ESE LUK 20 N HTS 10 N 5I3 15 N HSS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEADING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE IMPULSE NOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AMPLIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY AID IN DEVELOPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NERN EXTENT OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS AOA 45F/ OVER SERN MO AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE REGION MAY BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 750-1200 J/KG NEAR 21Z...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR GIVEN NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 40-50 KT. THUS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF SEVERE WIND/HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER DARK...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...SRN CA COAST... STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED -22C TO -24C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS SRN CA TODAY. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK WITHIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...LOW LEVELS MAY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS...ALONG WITH A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE. ...TX... LEADING DISTURBANCE SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN TX WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. HOWEVER...SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO GREATER STABILITY LATER THIS MORNING AND RESULTANT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR OVER SWRN/W-CENTRAL TX TO WARRANT INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 18:39:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 13:39:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503042003.j24K3bO8011374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042001 SWODY1 SPC AC 041959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ABI 30 N BWD 35 ESE BWD 45 SSE BWD 25 NW JCT 65 NE P07 FST 10 SSW INK 35 ESE HOB 55 WNW ABI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 25 W FAT 35 SE BIH 20 W LAS 55 ENE IGM 25 SSE FLG 45 WSW SOW 65 SW SOW 50 NNW TUS 80 SSE GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MKL 50 S UNO 10 N HRO 20 S SGF 35 NE SGF 35 E VIH 15 SSW LUK 30 NW HTS 10 NNE 5I3 15 N HSS 30 SSE TYS 55 SSE BNA 40 ESE MKL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY... STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SLIDE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ORIENTED WEST TO EAST FROM WRN TN TO VA. A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN SERN MO WHERE A CU FIELD IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. STORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 02Z IN FAR SRN IL SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 800 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT. ANY THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...CA/SW DESERT... AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD THIS EVENING. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SRN CA. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...COLD AIR ALOFT AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WATERSPOUT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...WEST TX... A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SRN CA UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO PUNCH EWD ACROSS MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE NOSE OF THE JET WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION. ..BROYLES.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 23:15:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 18:15:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503050040.j250eC2x003404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050038 SWODY1 SPC AC 050036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 30 W FST 20 SE CNM 10 NW HOB 25 SE BGS 25 S BWD 40 W AUS 15 W SAT 20 NNW COT 55 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE MRY 30 SW FAT 45 SSW BIH 40 WSW DRA 25 E LAS 35 SSW GCN 35 N SOW 40 NNE SAD 40 SSW SAD 55 SSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MEM 45 NW LIT 10 WNW HRO 25 ENE SGF MDH 25 NE SDF 30 NNE CRW 10 W BLF 20 NE HSS 45 SW TYS 40 N MSL 35 WNW MEM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG VORT MAX MOVING ONSHORE AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN CA WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND LAND SPOUTS NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY TOWARD MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEY AREAS... SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN ARK THROUGH CNTRL KY ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG A WARM ADVECTION/WLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A ZONE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 300 J/KG FROM NRN AR EWD THROUGH PARTS OF KY AND TN. THE ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...AND A STORM OR TWO COULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG VORT MAX WILL DROP SSEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A PORTION OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SWD. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTERCEPT THE INSTABILITY AXIS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. BY THAT TIME...ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..DIAL.. 03/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 5 04:04:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 23:04:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503050529.j255T18G018168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050526 SWODY1 SPC AC 050525 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 50 SE MCN 15 SW GAD 30 ESE BNA 50 SE LUK 20 SE CRW 45 ESE LYH 40 SSE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW LAX 30 WNW EDW 35 WSW DRA 45 S BCE 25 E FMN 25 WSW CDS SEP 20 ESE TPL 60 NNE VCT 30 SSW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. IN THE W...SPLIT FLOW REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SEWD INTO THE BAJA AND SRN AZ AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NM AND TX. ...CAROLINAS... THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD MOVING IMPULSE MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL. DRY...MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEATING ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...SWRN STATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW INTO THE DESERTS OF SRN AZ AND SERN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING PEAKS WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. FARTHER E ACROSS NM AND INTO SW TX...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY SATURDAY IN VICINITY OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSES LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. S OF THE INITIAL BANDS OF CONVECTION...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN NEW MEXICO INTO SWRN TX. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 03/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 6 18:26:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 13:26:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503061950.j26Joj1e020007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061949 SWODY1 SPC AC 061948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 40 W TRM 15 NE RAL 15 WSW DAG 40 NNW IGM 55 SSE PGA 4SL 40 NE CVS 45 N ABI 40 ENE AUS 35 NNE VCT 50 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 S CRP 50 NNE MFE 65 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE FYV 35 WSW FYV 30 E BVO 30 E EMP 50 WNW LWD 10 W ALO 25 ENE LNR 45 NE MKG 15 S MBS 25 NNE ARB 40 S MIE 25 NE PAH 60 WSW ARG 35 SE FYV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER OH VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY... UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG IT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD QUICKLY SEWD INTO NRN MO AND IL OVERNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS WHERE 40-50 F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT NEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING ACROSS NRN MO AND WRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN MO AT 06Z SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONSIDERING THE STRONG ASCENT AND FAST CELL MOTION...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN KS CAN ADVECT NEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. ...SRN AZ/SRN NM/WEST TX... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SRN NM AND SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER-LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO MOVES EWD THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS FAR WEST TX AS WELL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -22C. THIS IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT OVER SRN NM WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL SUPERCELL THREAT WITH THE STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK ENEWD ACROSS SRN NM. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A DECREASE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF. ..BROYLES.. 03/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 6 23:50:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 18:50:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503070115.j271FLVr017814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070112 SWODY1 SPC AC 070110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SAN 45 NNE SAN 25 SE RAL 10 SSE RAL 15 W DAG 50 NNE IGM 60 SE PGA 4SL 45 NE CVS 35 SE PVW 35 SSE LTS 25 W OKC 30 W END 30 NW P28 35 SSW BIE 30 ENE SUX 20 NE SPW 45 N MSN 45 SE MBL 15 SSE MBS 25 SSE FNT 20 NW DAY 45 ENE PAH 30 SSW DYR 30 ENE LIT 15 WSW TXK 50 ESE ACT 50 SW CLL 30 NNE VCT 50 SSE VCT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN NM INTO SWRN TX... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN NM INTO CHIHUAHUA WITH STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TX. SURFACE ANALYSIS/00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SRN TX NWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO OK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM/CHIHUAHUA TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN/SWRN TX TONIGHT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SMALL...SHOULD BE OVER SWRN TX FROM AROUND SJT TO DRT AREA AS THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...DESPITE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS REGION. ...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN IA AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED NOW OVER SRN NEB/ NRN KS SPREADS SEWD. SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN WAA ALONG THE LLJ AND ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WITH THE TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...LOWER CO VALLEY/AZ/WRN NM... OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND EWD TO SWRN NM AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 03/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 05:20:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 00:20:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503070644.j276ilYG015005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070630 SWODY1 SPC AC 070628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JAX 20 W CTY ...CONT... 10 SE PSX 45 SW CLL 45 SSE DAL 35 SW HOT 40 NNE LIT 20 SW CGI 35 E PAH 60 N CSV 25 W TRI 25 ENE GSO 30 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 40 W FST 50 SSE MAF 30 WSW ABI 40 E SPS 45 SW JLN 30 ENE COU 25 N PIA 35 WSW SBN 30 WSW FDY 25 ENE PKB 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... 10 NNW DAB 50 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/SERN STATES... ...ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/SE COAST... STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES PER WV IMAGERY...WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO ENEWD TO SRN GULF COAST STATES AND FL. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...PREDOMINATELY WSWLY...WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH. 850 MB WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 35-50 KT THROUGH 00Z...AND THEN INCREASE TO 50+ KT ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS. SIMILARLY AT 500 MB...WSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 50-65 KT TO NEAR 100 KT OVER THE NERN GULF TO SERN STATES BY 08/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EWD FROM MI TO NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THROUGH THE DAY/OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES QUICKLY TO THE ERN SEABOARD TO NRN GULF BY 12Z TUESDAY. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES TODAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM IS PROVIDING FORCING ATTM OVER NRN COAHUILA FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TX COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN EWD TO THE NERN GULF COAST BY 21-00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST FROM 12Z THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NERN GULF COAST STATES BY 00Z. CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INHIBIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/ETAKF DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THUS REDUCING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST...SINCE IT AGREES BETTER WITH THE GFS INSTABILITY FORECAST. IF STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN TX TO MS/AL THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED BY THE NAM...THEN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG...DEEP WSWLY WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG FROM ERN TX TO SRN MS BY THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN LA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD TO SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE TOWARD 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN OK TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY MID MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL DEVELOP FROM ERN TX TO LOWER TN VALLEY BY 21Z. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY GULF COAST STATES THIS EVENING TO THE CAROLINAS/SERN STATES TONIGHT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 03/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 11:30:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 06:30:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503081255.j28CtDIn015535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081252 SWODY1 SPC AC 081250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 35 WNW CAE 20 WNW CLT 15 W GSO 30 NNE RWI 35 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DRT 50 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OKC 35 S DUA 40 NE ACT 45 W TPL 35 SSE SJT 35 N MAF 30 S TCC 20 NW RTN 35 SSW PUB 25 WSW LIC 50 SE AKO 55 N GCK 40 W P28 25 ENE OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CTY 30 WNW JAX 35 W SAV 45 W AGS 25 WNW AND 30 E HSS 10 SSE SSU 45 NNE CHO 25 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN SC/NC.... ...CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE MORNING... AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING EWD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNSTREAM ASCENT NOW OVERSPREADING SC AND NC. SOME CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS CENTRAL SC/NC...THOUGH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THIS POINT. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PIEDMONT SWWD INTO E CENTRAL GA...ALONG AN AXIS OF MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-250 J/KG. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL REACH THE COASTS OF GA/SC BY ABOUT 15Z AND THE NC COAST BY ABOUT 17Z...BRINGING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION...GIVEN THE OBSERVED 50 KT FLOW WITHIN 1 KM OF THE GROUND. ...FL PENINSULA... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED SWD INTO CENTRAL FL. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVERNIGHT BY RELATIVELY DRY TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE PENINSULA...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SWLY /OFF THE ERN GULF/. STILL...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF FL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL END WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY MIDDAY...AND THE SE FL COAST BY THIS EVENING. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS TOO LIMITED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA TODAY. ...PLAINS AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT THIS MORNING WILL DIG SSEWD TO OK/TX BY TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL TEND TO OFFSET THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND SUPPORT A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO NW TX AND WRN OK BY EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/BRIGHT.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 15:04:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 10:04:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503081629.j28GTEFm019216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081626 SWODY1 SPC AC 081624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ 50 W ECG 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 10 SE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DRT 15 SE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SJT 35 N MAF 20 WSW RTN 55 E GUC 15 S FCL 25 SW SNY 50 ESE GLD 25 NNW ADM 40 N DAL 35 N CLL 25 W AUS 45 S SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ILM 25 WSW OAJ 30 NE RWI 40 W ORF 20 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA... ...ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA... FAST-MOVING LINE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA LATE THIS MORNING. EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON A 270/48 MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE WILL CLEAR THE OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /AOA 50KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE/ HAVE MAINTAINED THE LINEAR STRUCTURE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED AND THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THE LINE MOVES OFF THE COAST...STRONG COLD ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL ENSUE AND THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ...FL PENINSULA... WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN FL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE FROM CURRENT VALUES. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE UVV WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE RAPIDLY NEWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO LIMITED/MARGINAL TO INCLUDE IN A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. ..RACY/GUYER.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 18:19:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 13:19:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503081943.j28JhSeq009953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081941 SWODY1 SPC AC 081940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 20 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE MRF 35 SW FST 30 SSE HOB 50 WSW CVS 45 SSW ALS 40 ESE GUC 30 NW COS 20 ENE LIC 55 SE GLD 40 SW END 40 N DAL 20 E ACT 25 S AUS 30 N NIR 15 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER CO...DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO WHERE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE MAY ENHANCE SWD DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH DEEPEST CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. FARTHER SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO SOUTH TX LATER IN THE PERIOD. EVEN SO THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK/ISOLATED. ...SOUTH FL... CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SWD MOVEMENT. IT APPEARS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONE THEY LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ..DARROW.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 23:27:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 18:27:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503090051.j290pqRL021259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090049 SWODY1 SPC AC 090047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE MRF 35 NW MRF GDP 40 W ROW 30 E 4CR 40 ESE CVS 35 NW CDS 25 ESE CSM 30 NE ADM 15 NE PRX 60 SW TYR 15 W CLL 10 NW VCT 30 ENE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS TO S TX... FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WRN KS TO NM WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL KS AT 00Z WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH AND SE AND EXTEND SWWD FROM ERN TX TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NRN PORTIONS OF COAHUILA AND CHIHUAHUA BY 12Z WED. SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING TO 30-40 KT FROM DRT TO NRN TX WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WAA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL TX...AND POTENTIALLY SRN OK. FARTHER S...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER COAHUILA AND WITHIN THE SRN STREAM FLOW ALOFT...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN TX TO THE WRN GULF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTION. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 00:38:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Mar 2005 19:38:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503100038.j2A0cUsg010843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100036 SWODY1 SPC AC 100035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST WED MAR 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... DESPITE LOW DEWPOINTS AND WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG INSOLATION ...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT/500 MB TEMPERATURES -23 TO -26C/ WAS SUFFICIENT FOR A BAND OF SHALLOW BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...LIGHTNING THREAT SHOULD END PRIOR TO 02Z. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...AS A HIGH LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN SERN GULF. HOWEVER...EVENING SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA SHOW A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ..IMY.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 13:01:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 08:01:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503101300.j2AD0um9018921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101258 SWODY1 SPC AC 101257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MDH 40 ESE VIH 40 WSW JEF 35 NNW SZL 10 NW P35 35 NE LWD 25 W MLI 35 NNE PIA 15 E BMI 15 N MTO 35 ENE SLO 20 N MDH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MO/IL AREA... HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES. WITHIN THE BROADER ERN TROUGH...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SSEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING REVEALED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER MN. AS THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SSEWD...CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING SNOWS WITH WAA SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 50 F ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MO...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 30S BASED ON UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 500 MB MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SBCAPE NEAR 100 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IL...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 16:17:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 11:17:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503101617.j2AGH83H007357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101613 SWODY1 SPC AC 101611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W EVV 55 SSW BLV 10 W JEF 35 NNE SZL 10 NW P35 35 NE LWD 35 WSW MLI 25 NE PIA DNV 15 ESE HUF 40 NNE EVV 30 W EVV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH THIS PERIOD. THOUGH GENERALLY DRY / STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS...SHOWERS / A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. ...SERN IA / E CENTRAL AND NERN MO / IL... COLD /-28 TO -30C/ MID-LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY YIELD MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 19:48:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 14:48:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503101948.j2AJmdJL024139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101947 SWODY1 SPC AC 101945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MDH 35 ENE VIH 30 NNW COU 40 NW UIN 35 NW SPI 15 ENE MTO 45 N EVV 15 N MDH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CORN BELT AND MID MS VLY TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL AND NERN MO WHERE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL EXIST. ..RACY.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 00:56:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 19:56:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503110056.j2B0u4e0016826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110053 SWODY1 SPC AC 110051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD THROUGH KS/MO WILL DIVE SSEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE FORCING...CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING. GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS....GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STABLE AIR MASS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ..IMY.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 13:11:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 08:11:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503111311.j2BDBqx9008430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111309 SWODY1 SPC AC 111307 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 35 SSE CLT GSO 15 WNW RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GON 15 WNW PVD 15 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 NW AGS AVL 30 W DCA 20 ENE BWI 20 NE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EVV 15 W UIN 25 SSE OTM 10 SE CID 35 SSE DBQ 40 SW RFD 10 NE IND 35 SSE IND 30 NE OWB 40 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT. LEAD DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MO/NW AR/ERN OK SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE TN VLY TODAY... AND REACH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY 00Z SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ...EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM JET MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS MANITOBA WILL BE OVER ERN IA/WRN IL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT CROSSES THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH THE MANITOBA SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER NRN MN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY AS IT ACCELERATES SSE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY. ...CAROLINAS/VA... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. COOL MEAN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. BUT UNUSUALLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ON THE ORDER OF 8 DEGREES PER KM/ AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS /AROUND 30 DEGREES/ WILL BE PRESENT OVER REGION...AND FAST /80 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT MID LEVELS. THUS... SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT COULD AUGMENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND YIELD DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS...IF STORMS OR SHOWERS DO INDEED FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT WHILE MO/AR IMPULSE IS FAIRLY STRONG...VORT SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CHANNELED. THIS AGREES WITH LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICT RATHER MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SYSTEM DRIVES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA LATER TODAY. WHILE THE MEAN WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ...UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FOSTER GUST FRONT LONGEVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...MID MS VLY... ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SSE-MOVING JET STREAK LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY YIELD SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SURFACE. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 16:09:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 11:09:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503111609.j2BG9H5n005819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111606 SWODY1 SPC AC 111604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 20 WSW GSB 45 NNW RWI 20 W RIC 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MTO 20 W BMI DBQ 35 WNW LNR 25 ESE VOK 35 ENE MSN 20 NW CGX 35 NE LAF 30 NW LUK 45 E LEX 25 WSW JKL 45 NE OWB 45 SSE MTO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CHS 20 SE AGS 25 N SPA 25 S SSU 35 WNW DCA 20 NW DOV 30 S ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA/ERN NC... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... VERY STRONG FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH AS S/WV IMPULSE CURRENTLY TN VALLEY MOVES TO OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW WRN PA WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD VICINITY APPALACHIANS. STEEP...COLD LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES AS S/WV TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. MEAGER SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABLE E OF APPALACHIANS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 40F. HOWEVER GIVEN THE HEATING/MIXING E OF MOUNTAINS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODELS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME WEAK CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...100-300 J/KG. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E OF VA/NC HIGHER TERRAIN DURING AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHILE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING AS S/WV TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE E. ..HALES.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 19:28:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 14:28:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503111928.j2BJSSfs022990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111925 SWODY1 SPC AC 111924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ECG 30 ENE RWI 45 NNW RWI 20 W RIC 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CHS 20 SE AGS 25 N SPA 25 S SSU 35 WNW DCA 20 NW DOV 30 S ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS SERN VA AND MUCH OF THE ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...DEEPENING CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THAT REGION ALONG/EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN AXIS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE HAS NOW GIVEN WAY TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO MOVE TOWARD COASTAL VA/NC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY YET PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE SHEAR WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..DARROW.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 12 00:56:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 19:56:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503120056.j2C0uQaF024082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120053 SWODY1 SPC AC 120052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 35 ESE FAY 20 ESE RWI 45 W ECG 15 NE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THOUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WAS DROPPING SEWD THROUGH WI. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN ERN PA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. A SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING WWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SRN MN AND THEN NWWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ...ERN NC/SERN VA... WEAK CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAS THUS FAR INHIBITED STRONG UPDRAFTS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE WIND THREAT APPEARS OVER. ...WI/NRN IL... A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECENTLY NOTED ACROSS WRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. QUITE A DIFFERENCE WAS NOTED WITH THE LAPSE RATES ON THE MSP AND GRB EVENING SOUNDINGS...WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER AT GRB. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AT GRB...NO CAPE WAS INDICATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR ZERO AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS SEWD INTO IL...SO THUNDER AREA IS NOT FORECAST. ..IMY.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvQeK005675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120539 SWODY1 SPC AC 120537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORTEX OVER ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WWD DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN LONGWAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY SWWD FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL AID A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WWD INTO NERN MT...TO SURGE RAPIDLY SEWD AND EXTEND SUNDAY MORNING FROM ERN NM/NRN TX ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO NC. ...SRN TX... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF ON SATURDAY...SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING... THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHALLOW. ABOVE THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER...SWLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ...SRN AZ... WEAK SLY WINDS ALOFT TRANSPORTED MOISTURE BETWEEN 500-700 MB NWD FROM MEXICO INTO EXTREME SRN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOK SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER... AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS AZ AND SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvRr1005688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121614 SWODY1 SPC AC 121612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 W TUS 40 NNE TUS 30 W SAD 20 ENE SAD 40 WNW SVC 25 SSW SVC 70 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT 20 NNW COD 50 WSW COD 40 NNW JAC 20 SE DLN 55 W BTM MSO 25 SE FCA 35 SW CTB 25 S 3HT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A POTENT NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND DRY DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND INTO COASTAL TX / LA..BUT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED. ...SERN AZ... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG HEATING AND CYCLONIC SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN JET WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN AZ / POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SWRN NM. MUCAPE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITHIN WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT THUS SEVERE UNLIKELY. ...WRN MT... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SWD WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. NWLY SFC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvS4b005697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121943 SWODY1 SPC AC 121941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 W TUS 40 NNE TUS 30 W SAD 20 ENE SAD 40 WNW SVC 25 SSW SVC 70 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT 20 NNW COD 50 WSW COD 40 NNW JAC 20 SE DLN 55 W BTM MSO 25 SE FCA 35 SW CTB 25 S 3HT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM... GPS PW AND GOES SATL PW ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THERE HAS BEEN A MINOR INCREASE IN MSTR ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN AZ THE PAST 24-HRS WITH 10-15 MM VALUES IN THE LWR DESERTS. DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO SERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 700-800 J/KG GIVEN A 84/36 SURFACE PARCEL. BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS SRN AZ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLD TSTMS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER...BUT A TSTM MIGHT DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATALINAS/RINCONS IN SERN AZ AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CEDAR MTNS IN SWRN NM. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSOLVE AFTER SUNSET/LOSS OF HEATING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ...WRN MT... ISOLD TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS OF SWRN MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF A 70 KT H5 JET DIGGING SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR SEWD AS THE TETONS OF NWRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvT8S005713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121256 SWODY1 SPC AC 121254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORTEX OVER ONTARIO SHOULD RETROGRADE SLOWLY W THIS PERIOD AS GREENLAND BLOCK NOSES S INTO ERN CANADA AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST AMPLIFIES S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FARTHER W...AMPLIFICATION OF GULF OF AK RIDGE WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING S ACROSS ALBERTA TO CONTINUE S/SE INTO THE NWRN STATES. DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE ZONE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS WILL FOSTER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS/COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MUCH OF THE N CNTRL AND NWRN U.S. ...NEW ENG... WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE NOW DEVELOPING OVER WRN/SRN NEW ENG EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE REFORMING NEWD AWAY FROM REGION THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE ASCENT AND INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER TO YIELD AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON ERN/SIDE OF DEFORMATION ACROSS ERN MA...IN AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN THIS MORNING'S CHH RAOB. CHARGE SEPARATION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THIS REGION...MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE N ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLATED AT BEST. ..CORFIDI.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:34:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:34:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503132034.j2DKY4v0021437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132007 SWODY1 SPC AC 132006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW POE 25 WNW SHV 25 W ELD 50 N MLU 35 E TUP 35 NW AND 35 S SPA 45 ESE AHN 15 NE AUO 50 ESE MEI 25 NNW MCB 35 NW POE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FHU 30 SSE PRC 10 NNE IGM 45 WNW GCN 80 SSW 4BL 25 ENE GUP 30 N TCS 10 S ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CHS 45 SSE AGS 40 NNE DHN 35 WNW GPT 25 ENE LCH 20 N BPT 40 W LFK 20 S TYR 30 ENE TXK 25 E PBF 40 W LOZ 15 SSE BLF 25 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...DEEP SOUTH... 19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1002 MB LOW VCNTY KSHV. PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED EAST ALONG THE LA/AR BORDER INTO NRN MS AND NWRN AL AND SWWD THROUGH E TX. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO SRN AR AND NCNTRL TX AND SHOULD OVERTAKE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT AND MOISTEN ALONG/S OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS 57-64F. GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER H5 TEMPERATURES...CINH IS WEAKER ACROSS MS/AL AND A LITTLE STRONGER IN E TX/WRN LA. A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF HEATING SHOULD ERASE/WEAKEN THIS CAP BY 22Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROTATING EWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND WILL BE MOVING EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW...EWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FIRST INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WHERE WEAKER CINH EXISTS...NAMELY NRN MS EWD INTO AL. ACTIVITY WILL THEN DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AS CAP IS BREACHED ACROSS NRN LA BY 21-22Z. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS. AS CELLS MATURE...DAMAGING WINDS/BOW ECHOES WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MS/AL AS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD EXIST. ..RACY.. 03/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 00:52:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 19:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503140052.j2E0qmML006770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140050 SWODY1 SPC AC 140048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MCB 30 W ESF 45 SE SHV 45 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 35 NNE CBM 35 WNW AND 15 E AND 30 SE AND 45 ESE AHN 15 WSW AUO 20 NNW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MER 55 NNE FAT 55 NW BIH 40 SSE TVL 40 SSW TVL 40 ENE SCK 30 NNE MER 45 ENE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ALM 60 NNW SVC 50 W SOW 40 ESE EED 15 ENE EED 30 NNE EED 15 NNW IGM 75 WNW GUP 25 WNW SAF 45 SSE LVS 60 N ROW 15 WSW ROW 25 ENE ALM 15 WNW ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE LCH 40 SW POE 45 NW POE 20 E SHV 25 SW ELD 40 W MSL 15 NNW TYS 45 ENE DAN 10 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PNS 40 WNW ABY 35 SSW AGS 35 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...MS...AL...NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC... ...NRN LA/CNTRL MS/NCNTRL AL... NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER NE LA WHERE 850 TO 500 LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND AL WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MS AND CNTRL AL. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NRN LA AND WRN MS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED. ...NRN GA/WRN SC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 50 F RANGE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE 50S F AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AN MCS MOVING EWD OUT OF AL WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF NCNTRL AZ AND NM. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE MTNS DUE TO SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF THIS EVENING...THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 00:55:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 19:55:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503140055.j2E0tTSp008602@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140053 SWODY1 SPC AC 140051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MCB 30 W ESF 45 SE SHV 45 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 35 NNE CBM 35 WNW AND 15 E AND 30 SE AND 45 ESE AHN 15 WSW AUO 20 NNW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ALM 60 NNW SVC 50 W SOW 40 ESE EED 15 ENE EED 30 NNE EED 15 NNW IGM 75 WNW GUP 25 WNW SAF 45 SSE LVS 60 N ROW 15 WSW ROW 25 ENE ALM 15 WNW ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MER 55 NNE FAT 55 NW BIH 40 SSE TVL 40 SSW TVL 40 ENE SCK 30 NNE MER 45 ENE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CRE 40 SSW AGS 35 WNW ABY 25 ESE PNS ...CONT... 40 SE LCH 40 SW POE 45 NW POE 20 E SHV 25 SW ELD 40 W MSL 15 NNW TYS 45 ENE DAN 10 ENE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...MS...AL...NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC... ...NRN LA/CNTRL MS/NCNTRL AL... NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER NE LA WHERE 850 TO 500 LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND AL WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MS AND CNTRL AL. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NRN LA AND WRN MS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED. ...NRN GA/WRN SC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 50 F RANGE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE 50S F AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AN MCS MOVING EWD OUT OF AL WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF NCNTRL AZ AND NM. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE MTNS DUE TO SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF THIS EVENING...THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 01:55:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 20:55:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503140155.j2E1t6CL005588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140152 SWODY1 SPC AC 140151 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MCB 30 W ESF 45 SE SHV 45 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 35 NNE CBM 35 WNW AND 15 E AND 30 SE AND 45 ESE AHN 15 WSW AUO 20 NNW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ALM 60 NNW SVC 50 W SOW 40 ESE EED 15 ENE EED 30 NNE EED 15 NNW IGM 75 WNW GUP 25 WNW SAF 45 SSE LVS 60 N ROW 15 WSW ROW 25 ENE ALM 15 WNW ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CRE 40 SSW AGS 35 WNW ABY 25 ESE PNS ...CONT... 40 SE LCH 40 SW POE 45 NW POE 20 E SHV 25 SW ELD 40 W MSL 15 NNW TYS 45 ENE DAN 10 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MER 30 NNE MER 45 ENE SCK 45 SSW TVL 35 S TVL 65 NW BIH 60 WNW BIH 40 ENE MER. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...MS...NRN AL AND FAR WRN SC... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE IN CA ...NRN LA/CNTRL MS/NCNTRL AL... NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER NE LA WHERE 850 TO 500 LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND AL WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MS AND CNTRL AL. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NRN LA AND WRN MS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED. ...NRN GA/WRN SC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 50 F RANGE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE 50S F AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AN MCS MOVING EWD OUT OF AL WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF NCNTRL AZ AND NM. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE MTNS DUE TO SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF THIS EVENING...THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 05:40:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 00:40:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503140540.j2E5eaNW015736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140539 SWODY1 SPC AC 140537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 10 E GNV 10 NNW CTY 25 ESE TLH 20 NNE TLH 25 S ABY 35 NNE MGR 20 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE GPT 45 SW LUL 35 WSW LUL 20 E CBM 40 WNW RMG 15 NE CLT 45 SW HSE ...CONT... 10 E MLB 25 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PSX 50 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 55 NW GBN 45 SE IGM 30 SW GCN 70 N INW 40 ESE ABQ 45 W LBB 20 SSW ABI 55 NNE CLL 25 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL... ...AL/GA/FL... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL MS AND NRN AL WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN SRN GA WITH STORMS SPREADING ESEWD INTO NRN FL BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z TUE ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA SHOW ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MATURE ESPECIALLY IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE BY MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...AZ/NM... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH STRONG ASCENT MOVING SWD ACROSS AZ AND NM DURING THE DAY. AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION DECREASING BY MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...SCNTRL/SE TX... STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND TX TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SRN TX SPREADING A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS SHOULD TURN ELY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ABOVE THE COOLER AIR INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN RESPONSE...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND SPREAD NWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND SE TX LATE TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 12:53:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 07:53:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503141253.j2ECrP7F022397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141251 SWODY1 SPC AC 141249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 10 E GNV 10 NNW CTY 20 ESE TLH 20 NNW TLH 30 SW ABY 35 NNE MGR 20 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 20 W SAT 30 SE BWD 40 NNE ACT 25 WNW SHV 25 SSW MLU 40 W HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE VRB 20 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 25 WSW PNS 55 NE MOB 35 E 0A8 15 SSW AHN 25 SW CAE 15 E CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW TUS 70 SW PRC 40 ENE IGM 60 N INW 20 SSE ABQ 45 E 4CR 30 N MAF 20 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S GA AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... CONTINUED RETROGRESSION OF FEATURES AT HIGH LATITUDES WILL MAINTAIN RECENT PATTERN OF INCREASED TROUGHING OVER MOST OF WRN CANADA AND THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND SLIGHTLY ALONG THE E CST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED S/SE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND MUCH OF GA TODAY BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS S CNTRL FL EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK WAVE NOW NEAR AGS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE SC CST LATER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS IT CROSS S GA/NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FORCING /PER SATELLITE OR MODEL GUIDANCE/. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... BAND OF MODERATE /50-60 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE ERN GULF CST REGION TODAY AS MAIN NRN STREAM SPEED MAX MOVES E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. MUCH STRONGER /100+ KT/ FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AT UPPER LEVELS. THE BAND OF STRONG FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER SRN GA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER S GA AND NRN FL TODAY...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY IN NRN LA AND MS. BUT COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST HEATING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ AND RESIDUAL EML PLUME AT MID LEVELS SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WHILE SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAK SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW OVER LA THAT MIGHT ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS SLIGHT RISK REGION LATER TODAY...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT. PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL FOSTER LONGEVITY AND MID LEVEL ROTATION IN ANY CELLS THAT DO FORM...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK/SHALLOW FORCING FOR ASCENT. OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH HAIL AND HIGH WIND...MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ...AZ/WRN NM... THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN NM LATER TODAY AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED SE MOVEMENT OF GRT BASIN TROUGH DESTABILIZE REGION. DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 20 C AT 500 MB/ AND MODEST BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ...SE TX... ELEVATED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING SWRN STATES TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF CST REGION. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 16:19:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 11:19:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503141620.j2EGK0WS010095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141618 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAB 50 S GNV 15 WNW CTY 20 ESE TLH 20 NNW TLH 30 SW ABY 35 NNE MGR 20 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 55 NE MOB 35 E 0A8 15 SSW AHN 25 SW CAE 15 E CRE ...CONT... 15 SE VRB 30 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 10 NNW SAT 15 S SEP FTW 30 ESE PRX 30 SE ELD 30 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 70 SW PRC 45 NW PRC 60 NNE INW 25 ESE 4SL 20 ESE TCC 40 NNW CDS 30 E CDS 45 SSW LTS 45 NNW ABI 55 SE MAF 20 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN GA/NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...COLD S/WV TROUGH NV/UT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO SRN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM FAST WLYS SRN U.S. WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS. COLD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SC THEN WSWWD THRU CENTRAL GA TO OFFSHORE WRN FL PANHANDLE ...SRN GA/NRN FL... CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE NWRN FL COAST WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. REF MCD 289. GIVEN THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS AIR MASS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. FURTHER N ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PROVIDING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS BY MID AFTERNOON AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ENDING THREAT. ...AZ... A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT HEATING S OF MOGOLLON RIM AHEAD OF FRONT GIVEN LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 19:36:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 14:36:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503141936.j2EJax1h011783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141935 SWODY1 SPC AC 141933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 45 WSW JAX 15 SW VLD 35 SW ABY 15 WSW ABY 45 N AYS 35 WNW SAV 20 ESE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CEW 35 SSW MCN 60 ESE MCN 40 SE AGS 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... PBI 20 WSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 10 NNW SAT 15 S SEP FTW 30 ESE PRX 30 SE ELD 30 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 70 SW PRC 45 NW PRC 60 NNE INW 25 ESE 4SL 20 ESE TCC 40 NNW CDS 30 E CDS 45 SSW LTS 45 NNW ABI 55 SE MAF 20 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA/SOUTH CAROLINA.... ...SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES... COLD SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO NOSE SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS PROGGED THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT CONTINUES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THOUGH SUBSIDENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE INHIBITIVE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BOUNDARY MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PEAK HEATING. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED VICINITY OF COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE...WHERE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXISTS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES/PLAINS... COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAINLY WILL DEVELOP NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL ORIENTATION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM MAY ENHANCE LIFT ALONG STRONGER MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE /AROUND 700 MB/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS THIS REGION BY 15/06Z...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...SOUTHEAST TEXAS... SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACCELERATE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA SPUR INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU BY LATE TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE...STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS PROGGED FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. CAP ABOVE RETURNING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ACTIVITY WILL BE BASED ABOVE DEEP FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR HAIL...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 00:40:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 19:40:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503150040.j2F0elfo030399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150039 SWODY1 SPC AC 150037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BRO 15 W ALI 30 N SAT 25 SE SEP 10 ESE DAL 35 NNW GGG 25 NW ESF 35 S HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PBI 20 WSW AGR 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 WNW CTY 10 SSE VLD 25 WSW AYS 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 35 W TCS 60 S GNT 25 S GNT 25 E GNT 35 SE SAF 50 S LVS 50 ENE 4CR 25 WNW CNM 45 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FAR SE GA/FAR NRN FL... ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF GA AND NE FL WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST BEFORE THE CELLS WEAKEN DUE TO DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN FL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ...NM/FAR W TX... ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTNS OF SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ...SRN AND EAST TX... A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A SHALLOW COOL DOME WITH A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -16C. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO EAST TX BY LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 13:03:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 08:03:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503151303.j2FD3nPI001718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151301 SWODY1 SPC AC 151300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N VRB 30 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 10 N SVC ONM 40 E LBB 25 NNE DUA 10 NE LIT 10 SE MSL 35 NNW AGS 45 SSW CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH CONSISTING OF SEVERAL STREAMS OF FLOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF THE W CST. THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN AZ EXPECTED TO BE OVER NW TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FARTHER S... DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CHIHUAHUA SHOULD ACCELERATE NE AHEAD OF AZ TROUGH...AND REACH THE ARKLATEX BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT THE SURFACE FROM THE CNTRL RCKYS ACROSS MID MS AND OH VLYS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. BOUNDARY MARKING THE SRN EDGE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE HAS NOW BECOME JUST ABOUT STATIONARY FROM S OF BRO ENE TO NEAR VRB. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS REBOUND AHEAD OF THE AZ AND MEXICAN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ...SW/S CNTRL TX THIS AFTN... CURRENT 11-3.9U SATELLITE DATA DEPICT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX NWD INTO THE DAVIS MTN REGION...THE PECOS VLY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM NRN MEXICAN UPPER IMPULSE. COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...THIS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SBCAPE /300-400 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK E/ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/CONVERGENCE. THUS...A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME PERSISTENT AND/OR EVOLVE INTO SMALL BANDS/CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEFLY STRONG WIND. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF TX TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY AND PARTS OF DEEP S TX AS GLANCING INFLUENCE OF EJECTING MEXICAN TROUGH ENHANCES LIFT ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT. WHILE STOUT CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...IF A FEW STORMS DO INDEED FORM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PWS AOA 1 INCH/ BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST LATER IN THE PERIOD... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF CST REGION AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER SYSTEMS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS TX. WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE NEWD INTO PARTS OF...SE LA...SRN MS...CNTRL AND SRN AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. BACKED NATURE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...AND THAT HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. BUT 40-50 KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL FOSTER STORM ROTATION. GIVEN INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN NEAR WARM FRONT...THIS MAY POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/HIGH WIND REPORT LATER IN THE PERIOD FROM NEAR BVE TO PAM. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 16:28:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 11:28:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503151628.j2FGS4O0023601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151625 SWODY1 SPC AC 151623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LCH 55 NW ESF 50 W JAN 25 E JAN 35 ESE MEI 35 NE CEW 20 NNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ELP 45 NE ALM 25 N ROW 35 SW CDS 25 ESE LTS 40 WNW MLC 20 S DYR 30 N HSV 30 SSE AND 45 S CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBI 25 SSE FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX TROUGH WRN U.S. WITH PROGRESSIVE BROAD RIDGE ERN U.S. STRONG S/WV OVER NM SHIFTS EWD WHILE SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO WRN GULF COAST BY TONIGHT. PRONOUNCED FRONTAL ZONE HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FL WWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTREME S TX. FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NWD AS WARM FRONT TODAY AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NWRN GULF AND MOVES TO NEAR CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. S OF FRONT AIR MASS OVER GULF IS NOW QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AOA 70F. ABOVE THE STABLE COLD FRONTAL DOME FROM TX EWD ALONG GULF COAST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ARE IN PLACE. ...SRN LA EWD TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE... THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN TX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF EXPECTED ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE/APPROACH OF MEXICO S/WV TROUGH AND THE ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD FRONTAL DOME ON THE STRENGTHENING 850MB SWLY JET. ELEVATED CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER THIS ADVECTIVE REGIME ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY WHICH ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN STABLE LAYER BELOW FRONTAL INVERSION. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT NEARING CENTRAL GULF COAST THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...WRN TX... STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF NM TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OR GREATER AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 60 KT. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 19:53:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 14:53:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503151953.j2FJrcs1023291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151951 SWODY1 SPC AC 151949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT ESF HEZ MEI TOI 25 E MAI 35 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ELP HOB 40 NNE SJT BWD DAL PBF MEM 45 SSW BNA AVL 40 SSE EWN ...CONT... 15 NNE PBI 25 SSE FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST.... SURFACE FRONT IS STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA/GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST. ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION TO THE NORTH...AIR MASS IS MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF INTENSIFYING UPPER JET STREAK...ATOP AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...BUT FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF WAVE ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...INTO EASTERN GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...WHERE INVERSION IS SHALLOWER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS..RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...COULD INCREASE AS SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER IS ERASED. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY... LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER COLD SURGE MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND AREAS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION NOW APPEAR CONFINED TO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT STEERING FLOW COULD AID PROPAGATION ACROSS THE RIVER...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...INTO TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST CELLS BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF THE VALLEY. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD WILL BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH... ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOVE DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 01:01:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:01:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503160101.j2G11jDw023388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160059 SWODY1 SPC AC 160058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 40 NNE MSY 30 WSW LUL 20 SE MEI 15 SW SEM 15 E TOI 25 ENE MAI 35 E AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 35 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBI 25 SSE FMY ...CONT... ELP 35 NW MAF 45 ENE ABI 35 WSW PRX 35 WSW HOT 25 NNE MEM 20 NW MSL 15 ESE ANB 25 WNW MCN 40 NNW SAV 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH TX... ...SE LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/FL... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SE LA EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS SE LA IS FEEDING THE CONVECTION. AS THE JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS EWD...THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE BACKED ALONG THE COAST OF LA...MS AND AL DUE TO A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IS CREATING STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE AND MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE CELLS MOVE INLAND OVER A COOL DOME...THE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED. THE 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING AT EGLIN AFB SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...FAR SOUTH TX... AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN FAR SOUTH TX. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTH TX THIS EVENING SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 70 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...SW AND CNTRL TX... AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WCNTRL TX JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NM. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S F. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THEY TRACK EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMP AROUND -20C SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. ..BROYLES.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 12:48:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 07:48:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503161248.j2GCmbBf029938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161245 SWODY1 SPC AC 161244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 7R4 20 ESE LFT 35 ESE JAN 15 W TCL 15 WNW ANB 30 WSW CAE CRE ...CONT... 30 S PBI 65 W MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW AQQ 30 SW MGR 15 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 35 W ALI 35 SSW VCT 25 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT 30 ENE COD 45 NE JAC 15 NW SUN 65 E BKE 35 WSW GEG 20 WSW SEA 15 E CLM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...MULTI STREAM PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD. TWO IMPULSES IN THE SRN-MOST STREAM /THAT EXTENDING FROM NERN MEXICO NEWD ACROSS FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST/ WILL RACE NEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER IMPULSE OF MORE NRN ORIGIN TRACKS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO WRN AR. THE SERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM OFF THE S TX GULF CST ENE TO NEAR SAV. THE FRONT...IN GENERAL...WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY /NOW NEAR AQQ/ REDEVELOPS NEWD OFF THE GA/SC CST. ...XTRM S GA/FL... PORTION OF SHALLOW FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM SURFACE WAVE NEAR AQQ SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS N FL AND XTRM S GA LATER TODAY AS WAVE REDEVELOPS NEWD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST MARITIME AIR TO OVERSPREAD REGION BENEATH 65-70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/ EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN PERIODIC WAVES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD REDEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE AND GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AMPLE /50+ KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL...NEVERTHELESS...BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS WITHIN THE LARGELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER S...ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CNTRL FL. WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. LATER IN THE PERIOD A FEW STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...MAY AFFECT WRN AND SWRN FL AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED TRAILING PORTION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT REGION. WHILE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY TIME OF DAY. ...CNTRL GULF CST... AN ELEVATED STORM OR TWO POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY CLIP SERN LA LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TEMPORARILY BACKS AHEAD OF SRN END OF TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERRIDE AXIS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THIS REGION IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 12:54:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 07:54:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503161254.j2GCse7t000814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161252 SWODY1 SPC AC 161251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 30 SW MGR 15 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 7R4 20 ESE LFT 35 ESE JAN 15 W TCL 15 WNW ANB 30 WSW CAE CRE ...CONT... 30 S PBI 65 W MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 35 W ALI 35 SSW VCT 25 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT 30 ENE COD 45 NE JAC 15 NW SUN 65 E BKE 35 WSW GEG 20 WSW SEA 15 E CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL AND XTRM S GA... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...MULTI STREAM PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD. TWO IMPULSES IN THE SRN-MOST STREAM /THAT EXTENDING FROM NERN MEXICO NEWD ACROSS FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST/ WILL RACE NEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER IMPULSE OF MORE NRN ORIGIN TRACKS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO WRN AR. THE SERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM OFF THE S TX GULF CST ENE TO NEAR SAV. THE FRONT...IN GENERAL...WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY /NOW NEAR AQQ/ REDEVELOPS NEWD OFF THE GA/SC CST. ...XTRM S GA/FL... PORTION OF SHALLOW FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM SURFACE WAVE NEAR AQQ SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS N FL AND XTRM S GA LATER TODAY AS WAVE REDEVELOPS NEWD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST MARITIME AIR TO OVERSPREAD REGION BENEATH 65-70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/ EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN PERIODIC WAVES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD REDEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE AND GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AMPLE /50+ KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL...NEVERTHELESS...BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS WITHIN THE LARGELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER S...ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CNTRL FL. WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. LATER IN THE PERIOD A FEW STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...MAY AFFECT WRN AND SWRN FL AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED TRAILING PORTION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT REGION. WHILE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY TIME OF DAY. ...CNTRL GULF CST... AN ELEVATED STORM OR TWO POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY CLIP SERN LA LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TEMPORARILY BACKS AHEAD OF SRN END OF TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERRIDE AXIS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THIS REGION IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 16:16:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 11:16:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503161616.j2GGGEfl023746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161611 SWODY1 SPC AC 161609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TLH 10 S VLD 15 E SSI ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 7R4 25 N BTR 35 E JAN 15 W TCL 15 WNW ANB 20 NNE CAE 10 SSW ILM ...CONT... 30 S PBI 65 NNE EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT 30 ENE COD 15 NNW JAC 15 NNW SUN 30 SSE BKE 30 E OLM 30 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FLORIDA... ...FL... TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER SWRN U.S. IS SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD INTO PAC NW. SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL REDEVELOP EWD TO OFF SERN ATLANTIC COAST AS SHEAR VORTICITY IN THE STRONG WSWLY FLOW SPREADS EWD ACROSS SE STATES. THIS SCENARIO WILL VEER LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SWLY ACROSS FL TODAY AS FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY DRAPED ENE-WSW NRN FL SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY SWD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER FL PENINSULA SUCH THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING AS TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE N AND NW ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AROUND 6C/KM. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE IS THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WITH FAST MOVING STORMS THAT EITHER DEVELOP OVER THE PENINSULA AS CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY...OR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS NOW OVER ERN GULF THAT MOVE INLAND DURING AFTERNOON. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS STRONG AND FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY SEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ..HALES/DARROW.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 00:46:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 19:46:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503170046.j2H0kbU5002171@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170044 SWODY1 SPC AC 170042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 10 WNW FMY ...CONT... 10 WNW PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY 40 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 25 E GEG 15 W PUW 40 NW ALW 20 NNW YKM 15 NNW OLM 20 SSE UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED NEWD OFF THE FL COAST AND SO HAS MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WEAK SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF TPA IS TRACKING ENEWD AT 35 KT AND WILL MOVE OFF THE PENINSULA PRIOR TO 03Z. THE VEERED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS LOCATED NEAR AND EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER... BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. ..IMY.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 12:53:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 07:53:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503171252.j2HCqsUl009397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171249 SWODY1 SPC AC 171248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 45 WSW CAG 25 W WRL SHR 35 ENE 81V 30 ESE PHP FSD 25 SE SUX 25 W OMA 25 NW HLC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH FRIDAY...S OF STATIONARY BLOCK OVER NE CANADA. THE SRN STREAM JET ...COMPRISING SRN PART OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SWATH OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NE MEXICO. FARTHER N...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING ID SHOULD REACH CNTRL SD/NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WAVY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM OF FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL TODAY. ACTUAL FRONT IS WELL N OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE PLAINS... CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE SE TO NEAR FSD BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...CNTRL/S FL... AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER S FL S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 1250 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SMALL SCALE BOWS AND EMBEDDED CELLS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION COULD YIELD A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TIL LATE IN THE DAY. A CELL OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY... ALTHOUGH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR PRE GUST-FRONT STORMS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF. THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... IN CONTRAST TO FL...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SE ACROSS WY/NEB/SD LATER TODAY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BOTH DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN VORT MAX...AND ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. BUILDUPS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE WY/CO MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE POTENT COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS... HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY YIELD A SMALL BAND OR TWO OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN NEB. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 15:11:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 10:11:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503171511.j2HFB70h005644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171458 SWODY1 SPC AC 171456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171445Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 45 WSW CAG 25 W WRL SHR 35 ENE 81V 30 ESE PHP FSD 25 SE SUX 25 W OMA 25 NW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN... AMENDED TO ADD SLGT RISK TO SRN FL ...AMENDMENT... PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 303 AND SEVERE WEATHER WATCH 52 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH FRIDAY...S OF STATIONARY BLOCK OVER NE CANADA. THE SRN STREAM JET ...COMPRISING SRN PART OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SWATH OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NE MEXICO. FARTHER N...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING ID SHOULD REACH CNTRL SD/NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WAVY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM OF FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL TODAY. ACTUAL FRONT IS WELL N OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE PLAINS... CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE SE TO NEAR FSD BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...CNTRL/S FL... AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER S FL S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 1250 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SMALL SCALE BOWS AND EMBEDDED CELLS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION COULD YIELD A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TIL LATE IN THE DAY. A CELL OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY... ALTHOUGH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR PRE GUST-FRONT STORMS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF. THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... IN CONTRAST TO FL...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SE ACROSS WY/NEB/SD LATER TODAY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BOTH DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN VORT MAX...AND ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. BUILDUPS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE WY/CO MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE POTENT COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS... HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY YIELD A SMALL BAND OR TWO OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN NEB. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 16:05:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 11:05:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503171605.j2HG518S016044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171602 SWODY1 SPC AC 171600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 25 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CTY 40 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 35 WNW RKS 20 NNW BPI 50 W COD 30 NE COD 35 ENE 81V 35 SSW MHE 15 N OFK 20 ESE GRI 30 NNW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY / CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND / SMALLER TROUGH WITHIN MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- NOW MOVING ACROSS MT / ID / WY -- IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE SEWD INTO THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS CENTRAL / SRN FL...WITH MOIST / UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS INDICATED S OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SRN FL. OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NRN WY / SERN MT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF NRN ROCKIES UPPER FEATURE. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING -- MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ...S FL... MOIST / WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT ACROSS S FL ATTM...S OF EFFECTIVE FRONT EXTENDING W-E FROM ROUGHLY LAKE OKEECHOBEE SWD. STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN A BAND FROM LEE COUNTY ENEWD ST. LUCIE / MARTIN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL STRONG / SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE EVERGLADES / KEYS WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. STRONG WIND FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS S FL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF THE SRN FL COAST / THE KEYS LATE IN THE PERIOD...ENDING ANY LINGERING SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS / BANACOS.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 19:44:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 14:44:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503171944.j2HJiDAE019728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171941 SWODY1 SPC AC 171939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S FMY 25 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PIE 25 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 35 WNW RKS 20 NNW BPI 50 W COD 30 NE COD 35 ENE 81V 35 SSW MHE 15 N OFK 20 ESE GRI 30 NNW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN.... ...FLORIDA... SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/GENERATED BOUNDARY IS NOW SOUTH OF A PALM BEACH/FORT MYERS LINE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT NORTHWARD A BIT ALONG THE EAST COAST...BEFORE CONVECTIVE LINE OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS GENERALLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EASTWARD PROGRESSION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS JUST NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ACCELERATION OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS FAR...MID-LEVEL CAPPING HAS INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI AREA...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO PROVIDE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT. LINE HAS STRENGTHENED IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI BY THE 18/00-03Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHEARED MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS NEAR STRONGER CELLS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING...RISK APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND KEYS TOWARD 18/06-09Z. ...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS... DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH AND WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 01:02:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 20:02:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503180102.j2I12YeJ001485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180100 SWODY1 SPC AC 180058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SUX 30 WNW EAR 40 W SNY 40 ENE RWL 45 NE CPR 20 S RAP 10 W FSD 25 W SPW 40 SE SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MIA 15 N PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING INTO THE FL STRAITS THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD COVERING THE SRN 1/3RD OF THE PENINSULA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FRONTAL AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GULF COULD PROMOTE A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN LIMITED CAPE ENVIRONMENT. ...NCNTRL PLAINS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH WELL-DEFINED LEE-SIDE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER WRN NEB THIS EVENING. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NEB/SRN SD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR WRN IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. EVENING RAOBS FROM THE ROCKIES TO WRN NEB DEPICT VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 C/KM. HOWEVER... ANTECEDENT LOW AND MID LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS VERY DRY AND THEREFORE CAPE IS MEAGER...IN THE RANGE OF 50-150 J/KG. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTENING WITHIN A NARROW E-W CORRIDOR ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SPORADIC AND SHORT-LIVED GIVEN SCARCITY OF CAPE. ..CARBIN.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 05:44:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 00:44:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503180544.j2I5ihkK000563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180543 SWODY1 SPC AC 180541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPW 30 W RST 20 N LSE 35 SW OSH 20 ESE CGX 15 NE DNV 30 ENE MVN DYR 50 W UOX 40 SSE GLH 20 NNW HEZ 40 NW ESF SHV 50 ENE PRX 30 W FSM 25 SSE JLN 30 SW SZL 40 SW P35 55 W DSM 30 S SPW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING THE DAY OVER WRN IA AND ENDING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY OVER NRN IL. AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COLD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ERN SEABOARD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. WEAKER PERTURBATIONS BREAKING AWAY FROM STRONG ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TRAVEL EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND TX WITHIN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THESE AREAS. ...MIDWEST/MID MS VLY... RECENT PASSAGE OF STRONG SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL INTRUSION WELL INTO THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH PRIMARILY LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MIDWEST CYCLONE. HOWEVER...HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WLY FLOW OFF ELEVATED TERRAIN...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT...WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY THIS PERIOD. SLOW MOISTENING AND MIXING WITHIN PERSISTENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM CNTRL IA TO THE ARKLATEX WILL OCCUR BENEATH/WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME AND RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAK DESTABILIZATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AND MARGINAL CAPE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODEST UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AXIS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHES. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 12:43:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 07:43:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503181242.j2ICgo6h004559@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181240 SWODY1 SPC AC 181238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPW 20 SSE MSP 40 ESE EAU 30 W OSH 20 ESE CGX 15 NE DNV 30 ENE MVN DYR 50 W UOX 40 SSE GLH 20 NNW HEZ 40 NW ESF SHV 50 ENE PRX 30 W FSM 10 ESE JLN 45 SW SZL 40 SW P35 55 W DSM 30 S SPW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AR/OZARKS INTO THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY... DEEP ASCENT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IA THROUGH THE DAY. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING STEADILY SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/OZARKS BY LATER TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW ESTABLISHED FROM SERN SD/WRN IA ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...ENHANCING SNOW FALL RATES THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION AND POSSIBLY SWWD INTO NRN MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES AND AIR MASS GRADUALLY MOISTENS...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM THIS EVENING INTO THE LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH ANY ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 16:32:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 11:32:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503181631.j2IGVpLp028819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181626 SWODY1 SPC AC 181624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 35 W HOU 30 NW LFK 45 SW TXK 10 SW FSM 15 ESE JLN 30 ESE MKC 35 SW P35 60 WNW DSM 30 SSE SPW 20 SSE MSP 40 ESE EAU 30 W OSH 15 ESE CGX 10 ESE DNV 55 WNW JAN 30 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 1002 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NWRN IA WILL TRACK EWD ALONG WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IA TO CENTRAL OH. SURFACE LOW WILL REACH NWRN IL BY 19/12Z. SSWWD EXTENDING COLD FRONT ACROSS E-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN THE SRN STREAM...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN BAJA CA WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD REACHING THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 19/12Z. DESPITE THESE DYNAMICAL FEATURES...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OWING TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ...AR TO IA/IL... IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN MO INTO AR. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE W-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITHIN WARM SECTOR. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY /100-500 J/KG/ COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MO AND AR. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW TRACK DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS IA/IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SRN MN TO SRN WI... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER SINCE 11Z AND CONTINUE POSSIBLE WITH NARROW...E-W AXIS OF BANDED SNOW NORTH OF WARM FRONT. AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFTS EWD INTO WRN/SWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. ...SERN/ERN TX AND WRN LA... LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /AFTER 06Z/...MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NRN BAJA CA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT ERN AND SERN TX...INCLUDING THE UPPER COASTAL PLAIN. WRN GULF AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEVELOPMENT OF SLY 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET...JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTENING FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN TX TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MOVEMENT ENEWD TOWARD WRN LA. ..BANACOS/IMY.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 20:00:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 15:00:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503182000.j2IK0cfq012418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181958 SWODY1 SPC AC 181956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 35 W HOU 30 NW LFK 45 SW TXK 10 SW FSM 15 ESE JLN MKC 20 WSW DSM MCW LSE VOK 35 NE MSN 15 ESE CGX 10 ESE DNV 55 WNW JAN 30 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION IS STILL IN RECOVERY FROM COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH DE-AMPLIFYING TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW ACCELERATING AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. PROCESS IS SLOW...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ONLY INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY/TONIGHT...DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA...REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE...AND WARM MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ADVECTED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...MISSOURI/IOWA/ILLINOIS AREA... LATEST SURFACE DATA SUPPORT MODEL PROGS INDICATING THAT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO THROUGH AREAS EAST OF KANSAS CITY AND DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION. DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COOLS AND LAPSE RATES STABILIZE. ...ARKANSAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH... MID-LEVEL CAPPING LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS...VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS. BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES EASTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING OF THIS FEATURE WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT NARROW PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESTABILIZATION STILL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 20:29:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 15:29:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503182029.j2IKTfla000497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182024 SWODY1 SPC AC 181956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 35 W HOU 30 NW LFK 45 SW TXK 10 SW FSM 15 ESE JLN MKC 20 WSW DSM MCW LSE VOK 35 NE MSN 15 ESE CGX 10 ESE DNV 55 WNW JAN 30 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION IS STILL IN RECOVERY FROM COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH DE-AMPLIFYING TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW ACCELERATING AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. PROCESS IS SLOW...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ONLY INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY/TONIGHT...DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA...REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE...AND WARM MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ADVECTED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...MISSOURI/IOWA/ILLINOIS AREA... LATEST SURFACE DATA SUPPORT MODEL PROGS INDICATING THAT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO THROUGH AREAS EAST OF KANSAS CITY AND DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION. DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COOLS AND LAPSE RATES STABILIZE. ...ARKANSAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH... MID-LEVEL CAPPING LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS...VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS. BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES EASTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING OF THIS FEATURE WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT NARROW PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESTABILIZATION STILL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 00:28:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 19:28:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503190028.j2J0SiZC032552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190026 SWODY1 SPC AC 190024 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PAH 25 SSW DYR 55 NNE GLH 30 SE GLH 30 ENE HEZ 25 S HEZ 40 WNW BTR 20 WNW LFT 15 NNE LCH 45 N BPT 20 ESE LFK 20 SSW GGG 45 N GGG 30 NW TXK 10 N FSM 15 SSW FYV 15 ESE JLN 20 NW SZL 35 SSE P35 40 SW OTM 30 WSW CID 15 E CID 35 NNE MLI 20 ENE MMO 35 NW LAF 10 ENE HUF EVV 25 S PAH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST/MS VLY REGION... MODEST TO STRONG ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TONIGHT AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG RELATIVELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM IA INTO NRN IL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY LIMITED. ALTHOUGH...DEEP MIXING ACROSS WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR CYCLONE CENTER FROM MO INTO SRN IA MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS TO INITIATE THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MAY INCREASE WITH SWD AND EWD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG IMPULSE... CURRENTLY IDENTIFIED ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING CO...MOVES EAST ACROSS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS FROM MO INTO AR AND THEN EWD TO IL. HOWEVER...LACK OF GREATER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIRMASS...SHOULD KEEP TSTM ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED OVER THESE AREAS. ...TX/LA LATE... ETA APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME GENERATING MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX GULF COAST BY MORNING. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AND STRONGER ASCENT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER TX GULF COAST ACROSS WRN/NRN LA. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 05:49:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 00:49:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503190549.j2J5nd3v001469@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190547 SWODY1 SPC AC 190502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP VCT 55 N VCT 40 E CLL 40 NNW POE 10 WSW HEZ 40 SE MCB 30 W BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 30 WSW COT 10 ESE BWD 50 N FTW 60 W MEM 50 SSW HUF 20 E MMO 15 S AZO 20 SW CLE 15 WSW PKB 35 N HSV 15 WNW TOI 25 W PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 20 SSE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW OTH 60 ESE DLS 60 W BOI 55 NW ENV 45 SE ELY 30 NW NID 25 W BFL 20 S MRY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY AREAS...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN ROCKIES...AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDWEST/MS VLY AREAS WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SPREADING SEWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY AND UPPER TX GULF COAST TODAY. THIS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE TOPPED BY MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW COMPRISED OF A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVES. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS S TX EARLY TODAY...WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LWR CO RIVER VLY...WILL APPROACH SCNTRL TX AND THE UPPER TX GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...SERN TX AND SRN LA/MS... A TRICKY FCST FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS TODAY AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR STRONG ASCENT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN A BIT AMBIGUOUS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE CROSSING THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE DAY. STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE MS VLY AREA FROM NERN LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHERE PHASING BETWEEN A MIDDLE STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL OCCUR. INSTABILITY EAST OF ANTICIPATED ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN PRESENT AIR MASS AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CLEARING AND WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THESE FIRST MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM LA WWD TO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...TOPPED BY RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG FROM VCT TO HOU TO LCH. GIVEN THIS MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...ANY DEVELOPING STORM WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH LEAD TO THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. 1) EARLY ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SWRN MS/ERN LA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...BACKBUILDS INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY AND BECOMES SURFACE-BASED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN LA...AND/OR 2) PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AND HEATING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...OR OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION... PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM SRN LA INTO TX...AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND AND HAIL LIKELY. IF BOTH SCENARIOS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 12:58:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 07:58:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503191257.j2JCvmvt008188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191255 SWODY1 SPC AC 191253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 45 SE SAT 25 SSW AUS 30 SSE TPL 55 NW ESF 25 NE HEZ MCB 25 SW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 30 WSW COT 10 ESE BWD 50 N FTW 60 W MEM 50 SSW HUF 20 E MMO 15 S AZO 20 SW CLE 15 WSW PKB 35 N HSV 15 WNW TOI 25 W PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 20 SSE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW OTH 60 ESE DLS 60 W BOI 55 NW ENV 45 SE ELY 30 NW NID 25 W BFL 20 S MRY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PART OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MS/WRN TN INTO NRN LA AND CENTRAL TX BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN...WITH SIMILAR READINGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MOIST CONVECTION INTO NRN/CENTRAL MS EARLY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF SLGT RISK AREA IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER SWRN TX/NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WHICH SHOULD OVERSPREAD ERN TX LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 12Z SOUNDING FROM LCH SUPPORTS 09Z RUC FORECAST OF MAINTAINING MODEST CAPPING NEAR H85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO PART OF CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...SUGGESTING STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE NEAR THE TX COAST PLAIN WHERE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SMALL LINES AND SHIFT ESEWD OFF THE TX COAST AND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 16:44:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 11:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503191644.j2JGi4hU014155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191641 SWODY1 SPC AC 191639 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 20 NW LRD 40 ESE DRT 30 ESE JCT 40 E TPL 55 NW ESF 25 NE HEZ MCB 25 SW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CRE 20 NE RWI 35 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS 40 SE ALW 55 NW ENV 15 SSE ELY 60 SE BIH 45 WNW BFL 20 S MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 55 SSE LRD ...CONT... 20 SE DRT 15 WSW JCT 25 SSE BWD 15 SSE FTW 15 N SHV 50 N MLU 50 N GLH DYR 20 SSW BMG 45 SSE SBN 45 SSW JXN 40 SSE DTW 15 NNW CAK 20 W HLG 40 NE CRW 30 S JKL 25 SSE HSV 25 NNE SEM 20 S CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN/ERN TX INTO LA... ...SRN/ERN TX INTO LA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAX DEVELOPING NEAR ELP WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AND NRN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL/SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO/LA TONIGHT AS STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER WINDS SURGE ESEWD ACROSS NRN MEX TOWARD FAR SRN TX AND THE NWRN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN AR INTO CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD INTO TX AND LA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z DRT SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN TX TOWARD LA AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA/FAR SRN TX/AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX IN REGIONS OF FEWER CLOUDS...CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROMOTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS SRN/ERN TX INTO SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM INDICATES STRONGER CELLS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO PROMOTE ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF TX. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS BY TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA TONIGHT. ..WEISS/BANACOS.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 19:54:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 14:54:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503191954.j2JJs2Is012196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191951 SWODY1 SPC AC 191949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 20 NNW LRD 15 ENE DRT 30 SW JCT 50 N CLL 45 NNW POE 25 ESE ESF 20 NE BTR 30 SW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ILM GSB 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS 40 SE ALW 55 NW ENV 15 SSE ELY 60 SE BIH 45 WNW BFL 20 S MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 55 SSE LRD ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 25 ENE SJT 40 NNW DAL 35 N SHV 50 N MLU 50 N GLH DYR 20 SSW BMG 45 SSE SBN 45 SSW JXN 40 SSE DTW 15 SW YNG 15 W LBE EKN 40 SSE JKL 25 SSE HSV 25 NNE SEM 20 S CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN TX EWD INTO SRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM -- WITHIN BROADER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS / NRN MEXICO -- WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS TX TOWARD THE WRN GULF. ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE UVV AND PRESENCE OF STALLING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...S TX / THE HILL COUNTRY ENEWD INTO SRN LA... INITIAL CLUSTER OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST S OF JCT...WITH STORMS FORECAST TO INCREASE EWD / SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN / SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HEATING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE...WHICH ALONG WITH COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN RELATIVELY COOL LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED -- INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES IN EXCESS OF 2" IN DIAMETER. LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER SERN TX -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO ONGOING HAIL THREAT. THOUGH LESSER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON...MCS ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO SRN LA OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 00:53:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 19:53:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503200052.j2K0qlql009949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200050 SWODY1 SPC AC 200048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 30 W ALI 25 N COT 35 ESE TPL 25 SSW SHV 20 WNW HEZ 30 ESE BTR 30 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW TOL 40 N CLE 10 SSW ERI 25 E PKB 25 NNW BKW TYS 30 SSW CSV 50 WSW CSV 30 SW BNA 20 ESE CKV 30 ENE SDF 10 WNW TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS 40 SSE ALW 10 NNW ENV 40 SSE ELY 60 ESE BIH 30 WNW EDW 20 S MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BRO 55 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 NNW HDO 20 SE SEP 25 E DAL 25 SE TXK 35 WSW GLH 40 SSW TCL 20 S MGM 10 NE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS RWI 20 WNW ORF 50 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA... ...MID-UPPER TX COAST TO SRN LA... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN TX AND SRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE TOWARD SWRN/SCNTRL LA LATER THIS EVENING. VAD WIND/PROFILERS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS EVENING. 00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND TSTMS HAVE GENERATED WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOLS...MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED OR PULSE-TYPE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM KCLL TO SWRN LA. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED CONSIDERABLY IN THIS ZONE AND STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY EXIST HERE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. BUT...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND MERGE INTO A MCS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OF A CONCERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL LA. A FEW TSTMS MAY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EAST-SOUTH OF KSAT THIS EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS YET TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS MIGHT POSE A HAIL THREAT RATHER THAN A WIND THREAT AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT ANY STORM THAT MIGHT FORM. ..RACY.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 05:45:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 00:45:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503200545.j2K5jcVH020024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200543 SWODY1 SPC AC 200541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 50 SW MHS 45 ENE RBL 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY ...CONT... 45 ENE BLI 20 SE SEA 15 SSE ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BRO 25 ESE COT 35 SSE BWD 45 SW SPS 20 WNW GAG 40 ESE LIC 30 WSW COS 20 ESE FMN 60 NNE IGM 25 NNE DRA TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 30 WSW GEG 30 ENE 63S 40 W FCA 35 W BZN 55 SW GCC 35 SE MHN 20 NNW BIE 15 SW SGF 35 SSE HOT 15 S GWO 30 N MGM 20 S CSG 20 SSW ABY AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM TO THE ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL JET NOW MOVING INTO THE SWRN STATES. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN THE SRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WRN PORTION OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE DEEP S/TX EARLY SUNDAY WILL REDEVELOP NWWD AS A LEE-TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE TX HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL GULF COAST REGION... LATE SATURDAY ERN TX MCS BECAME WELL-DEVELOPED AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL MAINTAINED THE NEXT 24-HRS. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE MCS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. BUT...NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD RELAX WITH TIME AS ATTENDANT H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAILSTONE ACROSS THIS AREA IN CASE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST. ...SRN PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER IN WAKE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT MCS. APPROACH OF THE SWRN US TROUGH/JET WILL INDUCE LEE-TROUGH/ CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASING SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT 50S/60S DEW POINTS NWWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THOUGH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT SPREAD EWD UNTIL AFTER DARK...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAKLY CYCLONIC. THUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW TSTMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FROM N TX INTO SRN KS. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL AUGMENT UPDRAFT ACCELERATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD STORMS. BUT...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS IF STORMS INDEED FORM WITH HAIL OR STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE ISOLD TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED AND EXPAND WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SRN KS/ERN OK AND NERN TX AND MAY CONTAIN ISOLD LARGE HAIL. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 12:45:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 07:45:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503201245.j2KCj4HJ006382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201242 SWODY1 SPC AC 201240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 50 ESE CEC 50 ESE MHS 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 20 SE SEA 15 SSE ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CRP 15 NW SAT 50 NE JCT 40 ESE CDS 55 W GAG 35 SE LHX 35 W TAD 10 NW 4SL 60 NNE IGM 25 NNE DRA TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 30 WSW GEG 30 ENE 63S 40 W FCA 20 NE BTM 30 SE JAC 25 E RKS 20 NNW CYS 40 ENE SNY 35 N EAR 30 WNW JLN 40 N TXK 35 SW GWO 20 W 0A8 20 SW CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... MCV FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IS WELL DEFINED OVER S-CENTRAL LA AT 12Z...WITH ARCING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THOUGH MCV WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL DEFINED AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING EWD FASTER THAN PRECEEDING SSELY SURFACE WINDS CAN BRING MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. EXPECT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR THE MCV LATER THIS MORNING. IN FACT...MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM SIL /USING SURFACE TEMP AROUND 70F AND DEW POINT NEAR 60F/ INDICATES LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SHOULD SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCUR IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AREA MAY NEED UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK LATER THIS MORNING IF IT BECOMES APPARENT AIR MASS WILL INDEED RECOVER. ...ERN TX INTO SWRN KS/NWRN OK... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SERN CO WITH A DRY LINE/TROUGH EXPECTED TO BECOME WELL DEFINED FROM THE LOW SSEWD INTO WRN OK AND NWRN/CENTRAL TX BY LATER TODAY. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE COLD POOL FROM MCS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HINDER GULF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE WITH DEW POINTS AOB 50F EXPECTED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THIS...MODEST HEATING AND VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS AND OK INTO NERN TX AFTER DARK AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...OVERALL THREAT LEVEL REMAINS BELOW A SLGT ATTM. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PAC NW. ONGOING STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED HAIL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...STRONGER CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 16:35:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 11:35:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503201635.j2KGZ3ph006662@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201632 SWODY1 SPC AC 201630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 25 NNE OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 25 N RBL 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 25 NNE HDO 50 S BWD 30 NNE ABI 40 NW EHA 20 WNW TAD 35 SSE ALS 25 WNW SAF 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 30 S HOT 40 NE MEI 45 SSW SEM 10 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...KS/OK/TX AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV WILL MOVE EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY OTHER SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN A PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM JET. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE CO AND THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE TOWARD SWRN KS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. S OF THE LEE CYCLONE...A LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL CONSOLIDATE SSEWD ACROSS FROM THE LEE CYCLONE INTO NW TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE LIMITED TO S CENTRAL AND E TX IN THE WAKE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO DEEP S TX. RESIDUAL L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL SPREAD NWD/NWWD ACROSS NW TX/OK/SW KS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM TO THE MID 60S IN SW KS AND 75-80 F ACROSS NW TX...RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG/ IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE LEE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEGINNING THIS EVENING INVOF SW KS AND DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS OK/N TX INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE W EDGE OF THE GULF MCS OUTFLOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER E TX...THOUGH AN EMBEDDED MCV IS MOVING EWD AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER LA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM E TX ACROSS LA TO SRN MS...THOUGH RELATIVELY POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 16:35:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 11:35:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503201635.j2KGZ71j006763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201633 SWODY1 SPC AC 201631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 25 NNE OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 25 N RBL 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 25 NNE HDO 50 S BWD 30 NNE ABI 40 NW EHA 20 WNW TAD 35 SSE ALS 25 WNW SAF 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 30 S HOT 40 NE MEI 45 SSW SEM 10 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...KS/OK/TX AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV WILL MOVE EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY OTHER SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN A PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM JET. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE CO AND THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE TOWARD SWRN KS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. S OF THE LEE CYCLONE...A LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL CONSOLIDATE SSEWD ACROSS FROM THE LEE CYCLONE INTO NW TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE LIMITED TO S CENTRAL AND E TX IN THE WAKE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO DEEP S TX. RESIDUAL L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL SPREAD NWD/NWWD ACROSS NW TX/OK/SW KS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM TO THE MID 60S IN SW KS AND 75-80 F ACROSS NW TX...RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG/ IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE LEE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEGINNING THIS EVENING INVOF SW KS AND DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS OK/N TX INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE W EDGE OF THE GULF MCS OUTFLOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER E TX...THOUGH AN EMBEDDED MCV IS MOVING EWD AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER LA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM E TX ACROSS LA TO SRN MS...THOUGH RELATIVELY POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 20:06:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 15:06:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503202006.j2KK6J1D014478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202003 SWODY1 SPC AC 202002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 15 WSW COT 50 ENE DRT 35 SSE ABI 45 WNW CDS 25 SW EHA 25 SSE TAD 40 NNE LVS 25 WNW SAF 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 30 S HOT 40 NE MEI 45 SSW SEM 10 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 25 NNE OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 25 N RBL 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ECG 45 S RIC 35 SE CHO 20 ENE CHO 25 SSE MRB 20 E HGR 40 WNW CXY 30 NW CXY 25 WSW ABE 15 ESE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN KS / WRN AND CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL AND ERN TX... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE SPREADING NWD INTO S CENTRAL / SWRN KS...AND INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK / N TX. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S HAS RESULTED IN MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ FROM OK SWD INTO NRN AND CENTRAL TX. SURFACE OBS ALSO INDICATE THAT DRYLINE IS DEVELOPING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SSEWD INTO CENTRAL TX INVOF SJT. WITH CONTINUED HEATING / MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT DRYLINE TO MIX EWD INTO WRN OK / ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION ATTM...A FEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL -- MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THIS EVENING HOWEVER...AS CYCLONICALLY-ARCING LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FROM SWRN TX NEWD INTO OK AND THEN NWD / NNWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS / SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN CO / WRN AND CENTRAL KS / SWRN NEB ACROSS OK AND INTO NRN AND CENTRAL TX. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGEST A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SERN LA / FAR SERN MS... RELATIVELY STABLE / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INVOF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THOUGH WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION BASED ON LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES...FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW INDICATED OVER W CENTRAL LA MOVES EWD. COMBINATION OF FORECAST DECREASE IN WIND FIELD AND PERSISTENCE OF CAPPED / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 00:54:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 19:54:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503210054.j2L0sOie009315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210051 SWODY1 SPC AC 210049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE OKC OKC 20 E CSM GCK 40 ESE GLD 35 NW HLC 40 NNE RSL 15 NE HUT 15 S PNC 40 ENE OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF 15 NNW RIC 35 SSW DCA 20 ESE ILG 25 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MIA 10 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 25 NNE OTH ...CONT... 10 N CEC 60 SSW SVE 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW POE 45 SW LFK 20 SW CLL 35 N SAT 20 ENE JCT 20 SE ABI 10 NNE CDS 45 NW PVW 30 WNW CVS 25 NE 4CR 45 WNW ONM 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 20 ENE TXK 40 NW POE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK AND CNTRL/WRN KS... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... PROFILERS/VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A COUPLE OF VORT MAXIMA TRAVELING THROUGH SRN CO/NRN NM ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF 50-70 KT H5 JET. STRONG UVV IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR GROWING CONVECTION ACROSS WRN KS SWD INTO WCNTRL OK. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN A NARROW WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS/TEMPS IN THE 40S/60-70F RESPECTIVELY. STRONGER STORMS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN KS WHERE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WERE THE STEEPEST/H5 TEMPS AOB MINUS 20C. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS. DIME-QUARTER SIZED HAIL HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS. TO THE SOUTH...THE 00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS SHOWED WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK BUOYANCY...LIKELY MITIGATING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS. FARTHER S...AS MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND STRONGER LIFT APPROACH... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND INTO N TX LATER TONIGHT. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM CNTRL/NRN OK NWD INTO KS WHERE THE STRONGEST UVV/BUOYANCY WILL EXIST. FARTHER S...ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 12:40:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 07:40:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503211240.j2LCeRGG024548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211238 SWODY1 SPC AC 211236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE AUS 10 W AUS 20 SE DAL 35 SW MLC 35 WNW PGO HOT 35 ESE ELD 30 NNE POE 50 ESE AUS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 40 ESE DRT 30 N DRT 25 E SPS 30 NNE FSI 40 NNE GAG 35 WNW P28 15 ESE ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60 SSW SEM 10 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ALM 35 SSE TCS 50 ENE SAD 55 SSW SOW 60 W SOW 10 ENE FLG 65 NE INW 20 WNW GNT 25 N ONM 35 N ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 10 NW DRT 55 NNW DRT 35 S SPS 30 SSW CDS 25 SE LAA 30 WNW HLC 35 S SZL 50 NE MKL GAD 55 E MCN 30 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW RBL 25 WNW SAC 20 NNW MRY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WAS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL WAA...IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OK AND TX...SOME OF WHICH HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL. SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY ESEWD INTO S-CENTRAL KS/N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BULGE EWD INTO CENTRAL OK/N-CENTRAL TX...AND TRAIL SSWWD FROM NEAR PRX INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRIMARY CONCERN REGARDING QUALITY OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL CENTER ON TWO POINTS...1) DELAYED SURFACE HEATING FROM EARLY STORMS AND 2) DEGREE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO ERN TX/ERN OK. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING ONGOING STORMS ACROSS ERN OK INTO NERN TX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OUTRUN DRY LINE AND ALLOW SEVERAL HOURS HEATING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF DRY LINE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NWD INTO PARTS OF OK AND MUCH OF ERN TX...AS 55+F SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM E-CENTRAL OK SWD. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION AS 100+ KT H25 JET AND 70-80 KT H5 SPEED MAX SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX. ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX AND ERN OK WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE COOL/STABLE AIR INTO SRN MO/CENTRAL AR/FAR NERN OK AND LIMIT NEWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING...STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AND SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY FORM IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...NEARER THE DRY LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH ANY PERSISTENT/DISCRETE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITHIN MDT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. A SECOND AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEARER THE LOW CENTER INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK AND FAR S-CENTRAL KS. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH -20C TO -22C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS THIS EVENING OVER ERN OK/WRN AR AND ERN TX AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A THREAT OF TORNADOES WELL AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 16:41:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 11:41:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503211640.j2LGedva031177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211634 SWODY1 SPC AC 211632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N PSX 30 ENE SAT 10 SSE DAL 40 WSW MLC 30 NNE MLC 10 SSW HOT 25 NNW JAN 15 NW MCB 25 WSW POE 50 N PSX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 30 NE COT 40 SE JCT 60 W TPL 30 E SEP 50 SSW ADM 35 NW ADM 30 WNW OKC 45 ENE GAG 40 S DDC DDC 15 E ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60 SSW SEM 10 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SE COT 45 WNW HDO BWD 30 SE SPS 20 E LTS 45 N CDS 70 S LBL 30 W GCK 50 SW HLC 25 ENE HLC 35 S SZL 50 NE MKL 10 SE GAD 30 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS 15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SAD 55 NNE PHX 25 E GCN 80 SSW 4BL 30 W 4SL 20 SSE ABQ 25 NW ALM 35 SSW TCS 40 NW SAD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS E/NE TX AND SE OK THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD INTO SW AR/NRN LA AND WRN MS BY LATE TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM SRN KS/NRN OK SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.... ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LBL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING EWD OVER SRN OK/CENTRAL AND N TX...ANOTHER WHICH IS ROTATING SEWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...AND A THIRD SPEED MAX OVER AZ WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A 996 MB CYCLONE IN THE ERN OK PANHANDLE /NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW/ WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING DRYLINE MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND OK. E OF THE DRYLINE...A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA. THE QUALITY AND EXPANSE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR ARE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW NWD DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NE TX AND NRN LA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE N. THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR W OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT OF THIS AXIS INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OF THE ONGOING STORMS...THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE TX THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE LOW LEVELS WILL WARM AND MOISTEN SOONER THAN AREAS TO THE N. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THROUGH THE LOW-MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING STORMS...WHERE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FROM N TX INTO CENTRAL OK ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE...GENERALLY ALONG OR E OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO OKC TO DFW. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HEATING BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 56-60 F AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES ACROSS ERN OK AND NE TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE WIDTH AND QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR BEING THE PRIMARY LIMIT ON THE AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT. THE AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER BAND AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN AND SRN AR/CENTRAL AND NRN LA/WRN MS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE SE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 20:01:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 15:01:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503212000.j2LK0sIW030938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211959 SWODY1 SPC AC 211957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N VCT 45 E SAT 30 WSW AUS 30 NNE ACT 35 SW DUA 20 NNE ADM 30 E OKC 55 E OKC 30 N MLC 30 S HOT 40 SSW GWO 20 SW JAN 30 N BTR 30 N LCH 50 N VCT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 40 ENE COT 10 ENE HDO 50 W AUS 20 NW ACT 45 NNW DAL ADM 30 NW OKC 30 NNW GAG 20 SSE DDC 45 E DDC 15 E ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60 SSW SEM 10 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SE COT 45 S JCT 10 SE SEP 40 ESE SPS FSI 45 N CDS 70 S LBL 30 W GCK 50 SW HLC 35 ENE HLC 35 S SZL 25 E POF 25 SW RMG 30 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS 15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SAD 55 NNE PHX 25 E GCN 80 SSW 4BL 30 W 4SL 20 SSE ABQ 25 NW ALM 35 SSW TCS 40 NW SAD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK THROUGH NERN AND E CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX...OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SRN KS THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK...CNTRL/ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SWRN KS/NW OK WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NW TX. VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET NOW OVER NM WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL TX BY MID EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NW OK SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND THEN SWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE NRN GULF INTO SW LA AND NWWD INTO SE TX. RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S REMAIN CONFINED TO S TX. AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXTENDS NWD THROUGH NERN TX AND CNTRL/ERN OK. DESPITE LIMITED RETURN OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A NARROW AXIS FROM N-CNTRL/NE TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE. IN THIS AREA...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HEATING EXISTS UNDERNEATH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES... CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX HAS BECOME COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. BACKED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS FROM NERN TX NEWD THROUGH ERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL THREATS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER NW ALONG THE COLD-FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER ACROSS NW OK INTO SWRN KS CLOSER TO UPPER LOW CENTER. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN THIS AREA. TIMING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S TOWARD CNTRL TX IS MORE UNCERTAIN. TREND HAS BEEN FOR EARLY WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO WEAKEN... POSSIBLY DUE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE MCS CONTINUES EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINES AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 00:57:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 19:57:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503220057.j2M0vXfG006969@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220055 SWODY1 SPC AC 220053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N VCT 30 SSE AUS 30 NNE AUS 45 NE ACT 30 ENE DAL 30 NNE DUA 20 SE MLC PGO 50 SE PGO 30 S HOT 40 SSW GWO 20 SW JAN 30 N BTR 30 N LCH 50 N VCT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE VCT 35 NE COT 25 WSW SAT 35 SW TPL 10 E DAL 40 W MLC 50 ENE OKC 35 NNW END 20 NE P28 20 WNW ICT 40 WSW JLN 30 NNW LIT 15 NE GWO 45 E MEI 50 NW CEW 15 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 E COT 30 NNE HDO 30 S FTW 20 WNW ADM 30 N FSI 40 ESE GAG 40 NW GAG GCK 50 NNE DDC 25 NNW HUT 15 WSW VIH 25 E POF 25 SW RMG 30 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS 15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK...NRN LA...SRN AR AND A SMALL PART OF THE MS DELTA REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VLY... ...SERN OK/SWRN AR SWD TO THE UPPER TX COAST AND EWD TO DEEP S... COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER ENHANCED REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL TX...WITH ITS INFLUENCE BEGINNING TO BE FELT ACROSS E TX. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING... ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM SERN OK TO THE UPPER TX COAST. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SWD TOWARD HOUSTON WAS AFFECTED BY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT LATEST MESOANALYSIS HINTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT SPREAD EWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH EVENING ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACK WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. LARGE HAIL...SOME POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...LONG-LOOPED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MDT RISK AREA. TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MS...LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. THUS...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME. ...CNTRL/ERN OK... SURFACE LOW HAS SETTLED SWD INTO CNTRL OK WITH AN ARCING DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST OF STILLWATER TO WEST OF DURANT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE WITH TIME THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM S OF KTUL INTO SRN AR. A NARROW WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S EXISTS BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT....CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG. ISOLD SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL OK...FEEDING OFF WARM SECTOR PARCELS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COLDER AIR. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS ECNTRL OK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL GIVEN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY LOW LCLS. ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED TSTMS...WITH BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER... CONTINUE BENEATH THE MAIN COLD CORE ALOFT ACROSS NCNTRL OK. THOUGH CAPE IS MINIMAL...LOW-LEVEL HELICITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT A HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT COLLISION IN THE DEEPLY MIXED DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN OK...ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THESE STORMS ARE APT TO ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN OK IN A FEW HOURS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINEAR NATURE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. THESE THREATS WILL SPREAD TOWARD AR OVERNIGHT. ...ECNTRL FL... NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THE ECNTRL FL COAST THIS EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD LAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. HAVE NOT INCLUDED A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT GIVEN SHORT TERM NATURE TO THE SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 05:53:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 00:53:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503220552.j2M5qfPK025341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220549 SWODY1 SPC AC 220547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW MGR 40 NNW PNS 15 NNW LUL 25 NNE GWO 35 SSW DYR 50 NNW HSV 25 SE HSV 25 SE ANB 25 S MCN 50 SSE MCN 15 WSW MGR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE GLS 45 SE PRX 30 NNE MKO 15 SW UMN 30 WNW POF 25 E OWB 10 NNE LOZ 15 N AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PBI 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 55 SSW TYR 20 SSE DUA 55 WNW MLC 35 S PNC 35 WSW EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 15 SW BNO 60 WNW TWF 30 S P38 50 SSW LAS 25 ESE LGB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF MIDDLE TN...ERN MS...MUCH OF AL AND A SMALL PORTION OF SWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER MS VLY...THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE SERN STATES INCLUDING NRN/CNTRL FL... ...SYNOPSIS.. STACKED UPPER LOW OVER OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH MO TUE AFTN WITH AN ASSOCIATED 80 KT H5 JET ARCING ACROSS LA INTO MS AND AL BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER ERN OK WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NW AR BY 18Z...NERN AR BY 00Z AND INTO THE LOWER OH VLY TUE NIGHT. A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY BY EARLY TUE...REACHING THE AL/MS STATE LINE BY 00Z. A WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD WITH TIME THROUGH THE SRN STATES. ...DEEP S... ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM AR SWD INTO LA WILL LIKELY MOVE ENEWD AND BE PRESENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO PARTS OF MS. THIS ACTIVITY IS APT TO DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME ACROSS NRN AL AND GA DURING THE PROGRESS OF THE MORNING AND INTO TN/KY AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LARGELY ELEVATED THE FARTHER IT MOVES NE ATOP THE COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM KY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT AS FAR N AS MIDDLE TN...NERN AL...CNTRL GA...ERN SC BY PEAK HEATING. THIS MAY BE TOO FAR N CONSIDERING CLOUDS/RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. THE MID-60S SURFACE DEW POINT POOL ACROSS THE NRN GULF WILL PROBABLY ADVECT INTO AT LEAST CNTRL MS/AL AND SRN GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY CLEARING BEHIND MORNING ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AS H5 TEMPS OF MINUS 15-20C BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MOIST AXIS. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MIDDLE TN SWD INTO ERN MS. SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION W.R.T. THE INITIATING BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY IN THE MDT RISK AREA. ...NRN/CNTRL FL... TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL TUE AFTN ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/WARM FRONT. 40-50 KT H5 FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. LATER AT NIGHT...AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COASTAL AREA...A BAND OF TSTMS IS APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE ORGANIZED WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ...CAROLINAS... WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS TUE AFTN AND NIGHT. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS... PARTICULARLY OVER ERN SC. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. ...AR INTO THE MID-SOUTH... COLD POOL ALOFT /H5 TEMP AOB MINUS 20C/ WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR AND TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH TUE WHERE RESIDUAL DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL EXIST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW. ...CNTRL CA... BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. ANY HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS. ISOLD TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR IN THE VLYS OF CNTRL CA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CAN REMAINED BACKED. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 12:41:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 07:41:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503221241.j2MCf5ZX023207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221238 SWODY1 SPC AC 221236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N VLD 40 NNW PNS 35 NNE JAN 60 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 15 SW MKL 25 WSW MSL 35 SSW ANB 20 NW MCN 45 ESE MCN 25 N VLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LCH 20 SW HEZ FSM 30 SSW UMN 30 WNW POF 40 NE BWG 10 NNE LOZ 15 N AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PBI 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 55 SSW TYR 20 SSE DUA 55 WNW MLC 35 S PNC 35 WSW EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 15 SW BNO 60 WNW TWF 30 S P38 50 SSW LAS 25 ESE LGB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TN/NRN MS INTO CENTRAL/SRN AL AND SRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO TODAY FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AS LARGE AREA OF STRONG WSWLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION AND INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION BY LATE TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EITHER COINCIDENT OR JUST AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO CENTRAL AL/GA...WHILE COASTAL FRONT LIFTS WNWWD ACROSS ERN GA/WRN SC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRIMARY WARM FRONT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC AND NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SRN/CENTRAL MS INTO THE SOUTHEAST... MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY THE LATE MORNING EAST OF ONGOING LINE OF STORMS AND SOUTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. AS H85 CONVERGENCE AXIS SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT STILL CENTERS ON 1) HOW MUCH AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND 2) HOW MUCH HEATING CAN PRECEED THE STORMS. SHOULD TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF STORM CLUSTERS/LINES ACROSS MS...AL OR GA...THEN SEVERITY OF ANY ENSUING WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...MDT RISK ACROSS PART OF THIS REGION REMAINS WARRANTED GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ACROSS AL/GA AND INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL SOME AFTER DARK... VERY STRONG SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES AS POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE SHIFTS ENEWD TOWARDS THE COAST. ...MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY... APPEARS CLEARING AND STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING WILL BOOST SBCAPE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. 06Z ETA AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AREA WILL CONVECT LATER TODAY AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE TROUGH/UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS INTO FAR NERN AR/SWRN TN/NRN MS BY 21Z...AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES/SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN/CENTRAL FL... THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS FL...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN AS 40-50 KT WLY H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN ADDITION...UPPER 60F-NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MODEST SBCAPE TO DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THUS AS STORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. LATER TONIGHT...TAIL END OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD INTO NRN FL WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...CENTRAL CA... STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF CA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO NRN CA/SWRN ORE. THOUGH MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 16:25:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 11:25:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503221624.j2MGOYS8022839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221621 SWODY1 SPC AC 221619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SSI 40 NNW DAB 35 NE MOB 40 ENE JAN 55 SW MEM 30 NNE MEM 15 SSW MKL 25 SSE ANB MCN 60 N AYS 25 SSE SSI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LCH 20 SW HEZ FSM 30 SSW UMN 30 WNW POF 40 NE BWG 10 NNE LOZ 15 N AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MIA 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 NE TXK 30 NW PGO 40 E OKC 35 S PNC 40 SSW EMP 10 ESE MKC 45 S UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45 SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED 10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CENTRAL AND NRN MS... SWRN TN...MUCH OF AL...SRN GA AND NRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO TODAY FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AS LARGE AREA OF STRONG WSWLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION AND INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION BY LATE TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EITHER COINCIDENT OR JUST AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO CENTRAL AL/GA...WHILE COASTAL FRONT LIFTS WNWWD ACROSS ERN GA/WRN SC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRIMARY WARM FRONT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC AND NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF NRN CA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY. ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO NRN FL/GEORGIA... WHILE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVES STEADILY EWD ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO TODAY...STRONG 80-90 KT 500MB WIND MAX TRACKS FROM LA TO GA BY EARLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONT SHIFTING INLAND ON 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE COOL/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT HAS SPREAD EWD TO FL WILL SUPPORT AN ARRAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SCENARIOS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE NOW MOVING INTO WRN AL DRIVEN BY THE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX DRIVING EWD FROM LA. IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE...SHEAR/HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS WELL AS MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING NEWD AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFT INLAND ACROSS NRN FL/SRN AL/GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS HEATING OCCURS IN THE DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS NRN AR BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL WITH THE STEEP COOL LAPSE RATES...THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. ...FL... REF MCD 338 AIR MASS ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WAS POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF FL PENINSULA WITH UNUSUALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM. WITH HEATING AND AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND 15-20 KT SFC-1KM SHEAR...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CAROLINAS... WARM FRONT SHIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO ERN CAROLINAS...ALLOWING 60F DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY LINEAR GIVEN THE JUST MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR. ...CA... STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND CA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED HEATING POTENTIAL GIVEN THE OBSERVED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THE 7C/KM COLD LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WILL BE LINKED TO THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTRAL VALLEY AS BARRIER FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEST OF SIERRAS. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 20:06:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 15:06:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503222005.j2MK5wGx030719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222002 SWODY1 SPC AC 222001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 15 SSE PFN MAI 35 WNW ABY 25 SSW MCN 55 ESE MCN 30 WNW SAV 20 ESE SAV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MIA 15 SW FMY ...CONT... 15 ESE LCH 35 SSW ESF 35 N ESF 25 SE ELD 30 S HOT 50 E FSM 10 NNW HRO 35 NW UNO 45 W MDH 45 WSW EVV 25 NE BWG 45 NNW TYS HKY 25 NNW SOP 20 ESE RWI 40 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 NE TXK 30 NW PGO 40 E OKC 35 S PNC 40 SSW EMP 10 ESE MKC 45 S UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45 SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED 10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN TA INTO NRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES... ...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL... EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SWRN SC INTO SRN GA AND EXTREME SERN AL WHERE IT INTERSECTS A SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH SWRN GA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF WARM FRONT WHERE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. THE LATEST VWP DATA SHOW LARGE HODOGRAPHS FROM NRN FL INTO SRN GA. THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE FURTHER AUGMENTED AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH WRN/MIDDLE TN AND AL... AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN AR THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT ACROSS LA. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN AR SWD INTO LA. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST E OF THESE BOUNDARIES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER AR NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SPREADS NEWD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO MS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ALONG MOIST AXIS E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER E ACROSS AL...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED BY THE EARLIER MCS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER W MAY ADVANCE EWD INTO AL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AL WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN BACKED TO SSELY. ..DIAL.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 01:07:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 20:07:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503230107.j2N17Rtn010752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230104 SWODY1 SPC AC 230102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW HUM 40 NE MCB 40 SSE UOX 35 WNW MEM 25 S POF 25 N PAH BWG 20 W TYS 35 ENE MCN 50 N AYS 30 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 NE GWO 35 WSW MEM 10 WNW ARG 20 NE POF MDH 10 ESE EVV 20 WNW SDF 30 SE LUK 15 WSW UNI 15 SSE PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 NNW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45 SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED 10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...THE TN VLY...DEEP SOUTH...AND PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...MID-SOUTH/TN VLY SWD INTO THE DEEP S... MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A TRIPLE POINT VCNTY KMEM WITH A DRYLINE SWD THROUGH KJAN THEN TO SCNTRL LA. TSTMS...INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...FORMED EARLIER WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WERE JUXTAPOSED. MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE COMBINED WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW VCNTY THE LOW HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AIR MASS HAS ALSO DESTABILIZED FARTHER E AND N ACROSS FAR SWRN KY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THAT STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THESE AREAS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL PROBABLY DECREASE. BUT...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING IN NE-SW ORIENTED ACCAS BANDS ACROSS ECNTRL MS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VLY AND THE 8KM WRF/21Z ETAKF AND 21Z RUC ALL SUGGEST THAT TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE NEWD INTO PARTS OF AL THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT DOWNSTREAM IN AL...BUT BUOYANCY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL PER THE 00Z BMX SOUNDING. THERE IS LIKELY A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER WHERE BUOYANCY IS GREATER. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND IF STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD ATOP THE COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NWRN GA AND ERN TN LATER TONIGHT. ...NRN FL TO THE ERN CAROLINAS... MOST OF THE SEVERE TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS EVENING AS A WELL-DEFINED MCV ROTATES EWD FROM THE KSAV AREA. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY INTERCEPT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE OFF OF FL AND WILL INTERRUPT THE COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM RETURNING MUCH FARTHER NWD THAN IT IS CURRENTLY. TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN FL OVERNIGHT. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SITUATED ACROSS NRN FL AND A FEW TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS THAT IT HAS DIMINISHED GIVEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE PASSING OFF INTO THE TN VLY. FARTHER N...WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS BROUGHT UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST W.R.T SEVERE POSSIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT IN THE ERN CAROLINAS. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE ACROSS EXTREME ERN SC/NC OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THE INTERRUPTION OF MORE QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN AND RESIDUAL COOL WEDGE WILL MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER. ..RACY.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 05:36:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 00:36:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503230536.j2N5aR35004259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230534 SWODY1 SPC AC 230533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 20 S ABY 25 WSW MCN 15 SSE RMG 20 ESE CSV 30 S 5I3 ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE VRB 15 SSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 45 WNW PDT 60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 40 SW MCK 40 SW GCK 45 E TCC 30 N 4CR 50 SSW SOW 30 SSE PRC 30 NE DRA 35 NW TPH 55 SSE TVL 15 WNW MER MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 15 SE TOI 20 W GAD 50 SW BNA 30 SW EVV 25 SE HUF 25 NNW CMH 15 S MFD MGW 15 WNW MRB 40 NW ILG 20 W EWR 20 E POU 20 WNW PVD 10 NNW HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING NRN/CNTRL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE OH VLY WED WITH ASSOCIATED 80-85 KT H5 JET WRAPPING EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MID-DAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-OH VLY AT 18Z WITH A COLD FRONT SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CREST TO THE FL PNHDL. A SECOND LOW WILL FORM VCNTY KORF AND MOVE NEWD OFF DELMARVA BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE SERN COAST LATER AT NIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD...THE PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS OVER AL WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WED MORNING. AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING IN WAKE OF TUE AFTN MCS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ATTM. GIVEN VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...ANY TSTM DURING THE MORNING COULD ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET SHOULD THEN SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N AS SRN VA IN WAKE OF THE MORNING PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS. DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS H5 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL ATOP RESIDUAL UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN VA/NC WED AFTN. TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND GIVEN THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SWD EXTENT OF THE TSTM POTENTIAL INTO SC AND GA DURING THE AFTN MAY BE LIMITED BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND THE TENDENCY FOR THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AS THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SERN VA...REDUCING MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. ...NRN AND CNTRL FL... A SECONDARY REGION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF ONGOING STORMS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BEFORE 18Z GIVEN THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIFT QUICKLY NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN A BAND OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND GIVEN THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME TSTM INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL FL AT ANY TIME WED AFTN. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 12:46:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 07:46:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503231245.j2NCjSfv024514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231242 SWODY1 SPC AC 231241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PBI 45 SSE FMY ...CONT... 15 NW PIE 10 SSE DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE JAX 35 SSE VLD 30 NE MGR 45 WNW AGS 40 E CLT 30 NNW RWI ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PSK 40 E TRI 25 WSW HSS CSV 35 ESE BWG 40 SSW SDF 20 NNE LEX 15 WNW HTS 20 ESE CRW 20 NNW PSK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 45 WNW PDT 60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 40 SW MCK 40 SW GCK 45 E TCC 30 N 4CR 50 SSW SOW IGM 15 NNE DRA 45 NNE BIH 55 SSE TVL 15 WNW MER MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AQQ 25 N ABY 25 N ATL 50 SW BNA 30 SW EVV 25 SE HUF 10 W MIE 25 WSW CAK 15 NW LBE 25 ESE AOO 40 NW ILG 25 ENE PHL 15 ENE BDR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...ERN GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... 12Z SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM THE SRN CHESAPEAKE REGION SWWD INTO THE UPLANDS OF SC. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC/VA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN PLUME OF LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS REGION HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK OVERNIGHT...STRONG/DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS JUST NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE. THUS...REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...WITH PRONOUNCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN GA EWD THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SEVERE THREAT MAY ENCOMPASS MANY FACETS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS QUICKLY ENEWD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL FL... UNFORTUNATELY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FL ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS AHEAD OF ONGOING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. /REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 75 AND ITS RELATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFO./ HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. SWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY INHIBITION LAYER EVIDENT AT MIA THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. ...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/WRN VA... THOUGH REGION REMAINS WITHIN MODIFIED WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD WARMING SURFACE TODAY. EXPECT ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 13:31:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 08:31:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503231331.j2NDV13k029679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231328 SWODY1 SPC AC 231327 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PBI 45 SSE FMY ...CONT... 15 NW PIE 10 SSE DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE JAX 35 SSE VLD 30 NE MGR 45 WNW AGS 40 E CLT 30 NNW RWI ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PSK 40 E TRI 25 WSW HSS CSV 35 ESE BWG 40 SSW SDF 20 NNE LEX 15 WNW HTS 20 ESE CRW 20 NNW PSK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 45 WNW PDT 60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 40 SW MCK 40 SW GCK 45 E TCC 30 N 4CR 50 SSW SOW IGM 15 NNE DRA 45 NNE BIH 55 SSE TVL 15 WNW MER MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AQQ 25 N ABY 25 N ATL 50 SW BNA 30 SW EVV 25 SE HUF 10 W MIE 25 WSW CAK 15 NW LBE 25 ESE AOO 40 NW ILG 25 ENE PHL 15 ENE BDR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...ERN GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... 12Z SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM THE SRN CHESAPEAKE REGION SWWD INTO THE UPLANDS OF SC. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC/VA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN PLUME OF LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS REGION HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK OVERNIGHT...STRONG/DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS JUST NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE. THUS...REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...WITH PRONOUNCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN GA EWD THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SEVERE THREAT MAY ENCOMPASS MANY FACETS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS QUICKLY ENEWD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL FL... UNFORTUNATELY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FL ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS AHEAD OF ONGOING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. /REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 75 AND ITS RELATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFO./ HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. SWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY INHIBITION LAYER EVIDENT AT MIA THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. ...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/WRN VA... THOUGH REGION REMAINS WITHIN MODIFIED WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD WARMING SURFACE TODAY. EXPECT ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 16:36:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 11:36:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503231635.j2NGZbwW024987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231632 SWODY1 SPC AC 231631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRE 30 ENE FLO 40 ESE CLT 20 SSW GSO DAN 50 SW RIC 40 SSW WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SSU 10 NW PSK 40 ESE TRI 15 W HSS 10 NNW TYS 25 NW LOZ 25 ESE LEX 40 WSW HTS 20 NW CRW 30 ENE CRW 30 NNW SSU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW FMY 15 NNE AGR 10 ENE MLB ...CONT... PBI 55 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TLH 50 ENE ABY 15 SE AND 40 ENE CHA 45 ENE BWG 15 ENE SDF 25 SSE CMH 30 SSW HLG 10 NW MGW 30 W MRB 35 W DCA 15 SSE BWI 15 N ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 65 SW PDT 70 E BKE 40 W SUN 25 WNW PIH 30 NNW WRL 65 SSE 81V 30 WSW MHN 10 ENE LNK 45 N STJ 15 SW SZL 50 N JLN 30 WSW EMP 40 ENE DDC 10 WSW LBL 35 SSW CAO 30 N 4CR 45 ESE SOW 40 SSW GCN 50 ENE LAS 20 ESE DRA 35 SW DRA 55 NNE NID 50 SSE BIH 30 SW BIH 30 N FAT MER 10 SW SCK 50 WNW SAC 55 W RBL ACV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN TN/KY TO WV.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NC/EXTREME SRN VA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL.... ...CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD CLEAR FROM W TO E FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE INVOF THE WEAK LOW NOW BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN N CENTRAL NC...AND IMMEDIATELY S OF THIS LOW ALONG THE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F...WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN KY/WV TODAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING FROM ERN TN NWD ACROSS ERN KY INTO SW WV. CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KY AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND SBCAPE INCREASES TO 500-1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR E OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER STORMS /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE MINI SUPERCELLS/. ...CENTRAL/S FL TODAY... A SHORT PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. SURFACE HEATING IMMEDIATELY E/SE OF THESE STORMS IS BEING LIMITED BY HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS...THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS S FL ARE DESTABILIZING QUICKLY PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WIDESPREAD CUMULUS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. WHILE THE COMBINATION OF SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/HAIL THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WELL N OF THIS AREA. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 19:57:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 14:57:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503231956.j2NJuoeo016059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231953 SWODY1 SPC AC 231952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ILM 40 WNW ILM FAY 10 NW SOP CLT 10 ESE HSS 25 WSW TRI 35 E 5I3 15 SSE CRW 35 NNW SSU 15 NNE SSU LYH RIC 35 SSW WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PBI 30 WNW MIA 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 W FMY 30 S AGR 15 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 45 N SAV AGS AND 65 ESE CHA CHA BWG 10 NE SDF 20 S CMH 30 SSW HLG 10 NW MGW 30 W MRB 35 W DCA 15 SSE BWI 15 N ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 50 SSE SEA YKM ALW 10 WNW S80 60 SSE S80 15 ESE BOI 60 W OWY WMC 60 ENE U31 ELY ENV MLD RIW DGW AIA LNK 45 N STJ SZL 50 N JLN 30 WSW EMP 40 ENE DDC LBL CAO LVS 10 SSE GNT INW 55 N IGM NID 30 SW BIH MER 50 WNW SAC 55 W RBL ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SRQ 30 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL.... ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... AT MID AFTERNOON...SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS RAPIDLY SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE OUTER BANKS AREA WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SHORTLY. A LINGERING CONVECTIVE THREAT REMAINS...THOUGH. MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING. LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE CURVING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/ISOLATED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...FLORIDA... DAYTIME HEATING IN MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH...IS PROVIDED BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH PERSISTS OFF THE GULF COAST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF FORT MEYERS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND MAY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE... AND INCREASING INHIBITION TOWARD NIGHTFALL. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AND WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AT BASE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE BASED AROUND 700 MB...WHERE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT MAY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE KANSAS/ NEBRASKA BORDER. ...WESTERN STATES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO... BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON/NORTHWEST NEVADA/PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AHEAD OF CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEATING/OROGRAPHY...BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...ALONG/NORTH OF STRONG BROADLY CYCLONIC SOUTHERN BRANCH JET. ..KERR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 00:50:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 19:50:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503240050.j2O0oHD9000337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240047 SWODY1 SPC AC 240045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HSE 20 ESE GSB 15 NNW GSB 35 N RWI 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SRQ 30 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRE 35 ESE CLT 40 NE HKY 20 NNE ROA 45 SW DCA 15 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 15 W DLS 75 NNW BNO 40 SSW BKE 40 S BOI OWY 10 WNW EKO 60 N ELY 25 SE ENV MLD RIW DGW 25 W BBW 25 WNW FNB FLV 45 S OJC 55 ESE ICT 30 SSW LBL 20 SSW LVS 30 W GNT FLG 45 NNW EED 40 NNW NID 10 NE MER 40 WSW SAC 45 S EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF ERN NC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... WELL FOCUSED EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SPREADING ACROSS VA/NC ATTM...PER RAPIDLY ADVANCING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FORCING...EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY HAVE WEAKENED...APPARENTLY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE TRAVERSING EWD ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARY THAT HAS DROPPED INTO NRN NC. STRONG STORMS MAY YET EVOLVE ALONG THIS ZONE BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IT SEEMS LIKELY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUB SEVERE THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY... LOW TOPPED...POSSIBLE SUPERCELL...HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEHAMA COUNTY IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND IS DRIFTING SSEWD MAXIMIZING INFLOW/HAIL THREAT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NE OF THIS STORM AND WILL SOON DRIFT DOWN THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN VERY STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM...WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING PROFILE WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINED...IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN ROBUST ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT BEFORE COOLING STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DARROW.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 05:45:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 00:45:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503240545.j2O5j2i8013351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240542 SWODY1 SPC AC 240540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW DUA 40 NNE ADM 20 SSW END 30 SSE P28 15 E HUT 45 SW OJC 30 WSW JEF 20 WNW MDH 35 SE PAH 30 NNW TUP 30 SE GLH 35 SSE ELD 35 SSW PRX 10 WSW DUA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 40 SE 27U 15 SW JAC 20 WNW RWL 40 SE SNY 50 NNE HLC 30 N CNK 45 NE FNB 10 SW OTM 25 W PIA 10 E CMI 25 ESE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 30 SSE JAN 40 NW BTR 35 SE LFK 55 SW TYR 15 SSE FTW 30 ESE FSI 20 NE LTS 25 SW AMA 15 SE SAF 50 N INW 20 ESE LAS 55 N NID SAC ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW MOB 45 S SEM 35 ENE TOI 10 ENE ABY 25 NNW CTY 10 SW GNV 15 N DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY FROM SERN KS/ERN OK INTO SRN MO/AR... ...SRN PLAINS/MID-LOWER MS VALLEY... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO...IN LINE WITH EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 25/00Z. MODIFIED WRN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS NOW RETURNING NWWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND EVEN NEAR 60 ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. SUSTAINED ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW LOWER 50S DEW POINTS TO RETURN TO ERN OK BY PEAK HEATING AS COLD UPPER TROUGH...H5 TEMPS LESS THAN MINUS 20C...MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO HEAT RAPIDLY OVER THE PLAINS WEST OF I-35 ACROSS OK/TX. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EVOLVE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ACROSS OK...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN INTO ECNTRL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND A SLOWLY VEERING LLJ ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION FAVOR AN EWD...UPWARD EVOLVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EASILY SPREAD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL...POSSIBLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...FL... QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS SRN FL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARMER WATERS. WITH TIME THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY FOCUS A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY CONVERGENCE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ATTAINED A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE ADDED ACROSS THIS REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION INTO THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW MUCH HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THIS REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASING ASCENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INFLUENCE OF FLATTENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE TN VALLEY. SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS THIS REGION IF THEY DEVELOP. ..DARROW.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 14:01:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 09:01:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503241400.j2OE0sVU025654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241358 SWODY1 SPC AC 241357 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PRX 30 SW DUA 10 SW OKC 35 N END 50 W CNU 10 ESE TBN 20 W POF 15 SSW JBR 35 WNW LIT 40 ESE PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW MOB 45 S SEM 35 ENE TOI 10 ENE ABY 25 SSW VLD 25 NNW GNV 15 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 40 SE 27U 15 SW JAC 20 WNW RWL 40 SE SNY 50 NNE HLC 30 N CNK 45 NE FNB 10 SW OTM 25 W PIA 10 E CMI 25 ESE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 30 SSE JAN 40 NW BTR 35 SE LFK 15 NE ACT 35 S FTW 30 ESE FSI 25 NNW CDS 45 E ROW 40 SSW 4CR 75 SSW GNT 35 WNW IGM 55 N NID SAC ACV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR... ...RETRANSMITTED... ...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARKS... FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AS LARGER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BROAD ZONE OF FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH 100+ KT H25 JET DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN TX/FAR SRN OK TODAY...BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE STEADILY SSEWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX BY LATE TODAY. A SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER OK LATER TODAY ALONG INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE/TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX /ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR/. THOUGH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETTING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE SRN PLAINS...THIS SYSTEM COMES QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF SYSTEM EARLIER THIS WEEK. RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEW POINTS /NOW CONFINED OVER SERN TX/ RAPIDLY NWD INTO ERN OK TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UNDER COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -20C AT H5/. RATHER HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG DRY LINE AFTER 21Z OVER CENTRAL OK AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...POSSIBLY AS LP-SUPERCELLS. HAVE PULLED LOW PROBABILITIES SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL TX AS A CONDITIONAL THREAT...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN CAP OVER THIS AREA AND FAIL TO GENERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED TONIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME EAST OF THE DRY LINE INTO SRN MO/WRN AR THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR WELL AFTER DARK. FEED OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAINTAIN LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL INTO THE LATE NIGHT ALONG SWRN PORTION OF DEVELOPING MCS. ...FL... THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE IN TWO MODES DURING THE PERIOD...1) WITH ANY AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL AND 2) WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INTO NRN FL AND THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN MODEST ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE/SEA BREEZES AND NEAR QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALSO WARRANT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO NRN FL LATER TONIGHT ALONG 30 KT SWLY LLJ. LATER STORMS WILL HAVE PRIMARY THREAT OF SOME HAIL AS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 16:33:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 11:33:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503241632.j2OGWmqV023831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241630 SWODY1 SPC AC 241629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TXK 30 SW DUA 20 ESE OKC 20 WNW PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE VIH 20 SW CGI 35 NNE MEM 20 SW LIT 20 W TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 25 SSW RSL 30 NW MHK 30 ENE FNB 25 E IRK 20 W SPI 15 ENE MTO 30 S BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 25 ENE SEP 30 ESE SPS 10 S CSM 40 SW GAG 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W SAC OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 35 N CEW 20 ENE DHN 20 SSE ABY 10 ESE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN OK/SE KS...CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SRN MO AND WRN/NRN AR.... ...OK/NW AR/SW MO AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF NW OK/EXTREME SW KS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD TO NRN OK TODAY...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVER NRN AR/SRN MO BY LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NM AND FAR W TX. IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF...WITH THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS CONFINED TO AREAS S OF ABOUT 25 N. FARTHER N...A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS TX...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST...AND LOWER 50S INTO N CENTRAL TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO OK THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN CENTRAL OK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL OK INVOF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT...WITH STORMS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE SPREADING EWD INTO E/NE OK...SW MO...AND WRN AR TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AT BEST MODEST INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUCH THREAT. ...NE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT... MUCH OF FL IS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS AS OF LATE MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS FL AND TO THE NE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE PRONOUNCED WAA REGIME. INSTABILITY BASED NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 19:57:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 14:57:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503241956.j2OJugHu013540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241953 SWODY1 SPC AC 241951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TXK 30 SW DUA 20 ESE OKC PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE VIH 20 SW CGI 35 NNE MEM 20 SW LIT 20 W TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 30 SSW HSI 25 SE OLU 40 NE OMA 20 ESE MLI 20 ENE BMI 25 S DNV 15 SSE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 25 ENE SEP 30 ESE SPS 10 S CSM 40 SW GAG 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W SAC OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 35 N CEW 20 ENE DHN 20 SSE ABY 10 ESE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR... ...CNTRL/ERN OK EWD INTO AR/SRN MO... EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN OK WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX /E OF ABI/ AND WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH E-CNTRL OK AND SRN AR. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...DIABATIC HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING E OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH WRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT CAP REMOVAL FOR STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL OR ERN OK. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS OVER SWRN MO INTO NERN OK MAY BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/MOISTENS WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. GIVEN WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON LATEST REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS THAT LIMITED MOISTURE/RELATIVELY HIGH LFC HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR A COMPLEX TONIGHT OVER SRN MO/NRN AR ALONG EWD-MIGRATING LLJ AXIS. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME ATOP DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 0376. ...FL... AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WELL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE OVER THE LOWER ERN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FROM SE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO N OF FMY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S S OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND W OF SEA BREEZE HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WITH A WEAK CAP. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT NWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO SRN GA WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. NWD RECOVERY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS COUPLED WITH THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ..MEAD.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 00:42:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 19:42:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503250042.j2P0g1Ng014008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250039 SWODY1 SPC AC 250037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TXK 50 SSW PRX 30 SW DUA 45 ESE OKC 35 NNE OKC PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE VIH 20 SW CGI 35 NNE MEM 20 SW LIT 20 W TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 50 NW CEW 35 E TOI 40 NE MGR 10 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 30 SSW HSI 25 SE OLU 40 NE OMA 20 ESE MLI 20 ENE BMI 25 S DNV 15 SSE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 15 ESE MWL 35 WSW ADM 25 NNW FSI 65 E AMA 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W SAC OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/ERN OK INTO SRN MO AND AR... ...ERN OK TO NERN AR... CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OK. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME HAS SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOIST SECTOR WHERE CONVECTION IS NOW DEEPENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM FWD AND OUN STRONGLY SUPPORT THESE TRENDS. LOCAL ALGORITHMS SUGGEST MOST SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL DIFFICULTY GENERATING HAIL WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION. ALTHOUGH CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BOTH ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT NW OF OKC...AND ACROSS SCNTRL OK AHEAD OF DRYLINE...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL OK INTO NRN AR. IN THE SHORT TERM...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ...FL... WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA. WITH TIME WARM ADVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING MARITIME AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THIS REGION. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIALLY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 06:13:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 01:13:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503250613.j2P6DFes026361@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250610 SWODY1 SPC AC 250608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LFK 20 WNW AUS 45 SW BWD 30 NNE ABI 20 SW SPS 20 SSE ADM 35 SSW PGO 45 NNW HOT 25 W UNO 60 SE VIH 40 WSW EVV 45 W LOZ 15 N TYS 40 ESE CHA 20 SE HSV 45 W CBM 35 S MLU 45 SW LFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PNS 25 WSW PNS 40 N CEW 35 SSW CSG 35 SE MCN 40 ENE SAV ...CONT... 15 SSW FMY 35 N PBI 15 SSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 55 SSW JCT 10 ESE MAF 45 NNW HOB 45 NE SAD 10 NNW PHX 30 SSE LAS 40 N U31 65 WSW BOI 15 E S80 20 WNW DLN 25 ENE RWL 35 S LIC 35 SSW GAG 35 ENE FSI 30 NNW MLC 45 SSW JLN 50 SW SZL 35 S IRK 20 SW SPI 35 SSE BMG 30 N JKL SSU 35 WNW RIC 10 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB 40 ESE MEI 25 NW MEI 30 W JAN 10 SSW ESF 35 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY...SWWD INTO NRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL INTO SRN GA... ...MID MS/TN VALLEY... LATE DAY1 CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS TRANSLATED INTO EXTREME ERN OK/NWRN AR/SWRN MO AHEAD OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH FAST WLY FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW WITH STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THEN REINTENSIFY ALONG E-W BOUNDARY AS DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES BAROCLINIC ZONE. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM IN LOWEST 3 KM...WILL FAVOR QUICK MOVING BOW-TYPE FEATURES FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL SEEMS A GOOD BET GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ...TX... FARTHER SW ACROSS TX...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ATOP RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AFTER DARK IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM. MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE OF HIGHER QUALITY THAN EARLIER SYSTEMS THE LAST FEW DAYS. PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850 MB SHOULD EASILY YIELD CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER/MCS INTO NERN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH THE SRN STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS LLJ VEERS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE. 06Z RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INLAND WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LEADING ELEVATED ACTIVITY...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS RISE THE PROSPECTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES BECOMES A GREATER RISK. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 16:33:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 11:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503251632.j2PGWs4I013194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251630 SWODY1 SPC AC 251628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE PFN 40 SSW ABY 15 ESE ABY 50 SE MCN 50 WNW SAV 25 SSE CHS ...CONT... 15 SSW FMY 20 S PBI 15 SSW FMY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW LFK 25 SSE JCT 10 SSW SJT 45 ENE BGS 25 S SPS 25 NNW PRX 30 ESE PGO 60 NW LIT 45 S UNO 10 ENE POF 20 N OWB 10 WSW JKL 10 NE HSS 40 ESE CHA 20 SE HSV 25 SW UOX 40 SW MLU 40 WSW LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 40 SW HDO 70 SSW SJT MAF 35 NNE CNM 45 NE SAD 10 NNW PHX 25 ENE LAS 40 N U31 65 WSW BOI 15 E S80 20 WNW DLN 25 ENE RWL 35 ENE DEN 40 NE LAA 45 S DDC 15 NE OKC 20 WSW MKO 10 W HRO 15 E VIH 10 NE ALN 25 SW MTO 35 ESE BMG 40 WSW HTS 15 WSW SSU 45 W RIC 40 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL AND SERN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TN VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS PORTION OF MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG TROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DROPS SEWD WITH UPPER LOW OVER NM AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS TX/OK BY 12Z SAT. DOWNSTREAM STRONG WLYS EXTEND EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY AND TO SE COAST. FLAT MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN WLYS MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO OFF CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD VICINITY TN/KY BORDER THEN SWWD THRU NWRN AR/SERN OK INTO SWRN TX. LITTLE PUSH ON FRONT E OF MS RIVER WITH SWD MOTION W OF THE RIVER. TX PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SCENTRAL TX AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THE VERY RICH GULF AIRMASS RESIDES TO S OF ACTIVE CONVECTION SRN GA/NRN FL WWD JUST OFF GULF COAST INTO S TX. ...SERN STATES... ONGOING SEVERE STORMS NRN FL/SERN GA WILL CONTINUE AND DEVELOP GRADUALLY SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WHERE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS AVAILABLE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND HELICITY WITH THE 40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND 25-30 KT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF A SUPERCELL THREAT. WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG AS WARM SECTOR TEMPS S OF BOUNDARY IN FL CLIMB INTO THE 80S...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED SHEAR IN VAD DATA. MOST ACTIVE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. ...TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TX... STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY AS TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IN TN VALLEY PORTION OF RISK AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ALSO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL E OF TN VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG HEATING VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT IN MUCAPES RISING TO 1000 J/KG WHICH WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER/UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 7C/KM LAPSE RATES., THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM CENTRAL TX EWD INTO NRN LA/AR S OF FRONTAL ZONE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL/ERN TX WITH THE STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING AVAILABILITY OF GULF MOISTURE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR UNDER THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO THE BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NERN TX BY THIS EVENING WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. ..HALES/GUYER.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 00:57:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 19:57:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503260056.j2Q0uwWF010232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260054 SWODY1 SPC AC 260052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GLH 45 SW GLH 55 ENE LFK 20 ENE CLL 35 N SAT 25 N DRT 65 SSE MAF 50 E BGS 35 SSE SPS 40 S MLC 45 N HOT 50 NNE LIT 40 W MEM 30 NE GLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PNS 20 WNW PNS 45 NNW CEW 10 SE TOI 15 NE ABY 10 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CHS 20 SSW AND 20 NE BHM 10 WNW MEI 30 ENE MCB 45 WSW HUM ...CONT... 20 SSW PSX 45 SW HDO 45 ESE P07 25 SE INK 40 NW CNM 45 NE SAD 40 E PHX PRC 35 W GCN 35 ESE MLF 50 NNW PUC 40 SSW RKS 45 WSW LAR 35 ENE DEN 40 NE LAA 45 S DDC 15 NE OKC 20 WSW MKO 10 W HRO 40 NNW POF 20 S MVN 25 N EVV 30 NE SDF 20 WNW HTS 30 NNW SSU 25 SE CHO 40 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO AR... ...TX TO AR... WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TX PER RECENT INCREASE/EXPANSION OF CONVECTION NORTH OF JCT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRT SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TX PER CAPPING LAYER NEAR 850 MB. AS A RESULT...LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL PROVE MORE EFFICIENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. LIFTING PARCELS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS AN EXPANDING CLUSTER EVOLVES INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NERN TX. ...FL... SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN PORTIONS OF FL THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PROVE SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN WARM ADVECTION COULD PROVE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. VERY MOIST PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION THUS MINIMAL ASCENT/CONVERGENCE WILL BE REQUIRED TO AID TSTM POTENTIAL ONCE UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 05:53:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 00:53:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503260552.j2Q5qnKF030109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260550 SWODY1 SPC AC 260549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW GLS 40 ESE CLL 20 WNW LFK 45 SSE SHV 15 W MLU 40 NW GWO 10 WSW TUP 25 SE ATL 55 SSW AGS 10 NNE AYS 15 W CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S VCT 10 NNE SAT 50 ENE JCT 10 SSE SEP 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 35 NNE GUP 30 NNW CEZ 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 10 SW PUB 35 SSW DHT 35 WSW CDS 35 SW SPS 20 NNW PRX 10 WSW LIT 25 ESE JBR 35 ESE PAH 15 NE SDF 30 SSW PKB 50 NNW SSU 15 SSE SSU 25 S PSK 30 W RDU 30 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM CNTRL TX TO THE SC COAST... ***A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES*** ...GULF STATES... MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS POISED TO SURGE INLAND AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL INITIALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK BUT CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER SPEED MAX...APPROACHING 100KT...WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TX...THEN EJECT NEWD INTO LA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER LA/MS AFTER 27/00Z AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS LIFTS NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG EXIT REGION. IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. 00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BROADENING ZONE OF INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE REAL ESTATE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS EXPECTED ASCENT...DETAILS AND TIMING OF INITIATION ARE MORE NEBULOUS. REGARDLESS...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MAY POTENTIALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SIGNAL IN THIS EVENINGS DATA IS THE EXPECTED TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG EJECTING UPPER SPEED MAX...LLJ SHOULD INCREASE AND FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SEVERE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...WHEN THE ASCENT REGION SPREADS ACROSS TX INTO LA RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF SFC LOW WILL DICTATE THE NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY REGION. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 12:59:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 07:59:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503261258.j2QCwRbS009623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261256 SWODY1 SPC AC 261254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW GLS 40 ESE CLL 20 WNW LFK 40 SSW SHV 40 S ELD 40 NW GWO 45 NNE TUP 15 E HSV 40 S ANB 30 SSE CSG 55 WNW AYS 15 SE VLD 30 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 50 S AUS 35 NW HDO 60 N DRT 45 SSW ABI 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 40 N GUP 30 NNW CEZ 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 10 SW PUB 35 SSW DHT 35 WSW CDS 20 NNE SPS 50 N HOT 30 W HOP 15 NE SDF 30 SSW PKB 50 NNW SSU 15 SSE SSU 25 S PSK 30 W RDU 30 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EAST TX...LA...MS...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...GULF COAST REGION...AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS TX TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF TX/LA/MS AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW...ALONG WITH INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...TX THIS MORNING... LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOW OVER TX WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SPREAD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. ...FL/GA/SC THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... EASTERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS FL AND INTO PARTS OF AL/GA/SC DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH OF TLH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST STATES... SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...AND THE GULF COAST STATES. RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS LIKELY SOUTH OF FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS LIKELY TO BE THE INITIATION POINT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND EVENTUALLY AL. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A LARGE SHIELD OF THUNDERSTORMS /ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/ LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC AND NORTH FL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT... OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND 90-100 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION. ..HART/BANACOS.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 17:13:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 12:13:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503261712.j2QHCXSp029826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261710 SWODY1 SPC AC 261708 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW GLS 40 ESE CLL 35 NW LFK 15 S ELD 50 NNW GWO 45 S MKL 15 E HSV 35 NW AUO 25 SSE CSG 55 WNW AYS 15 SE VLD 30 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 45 NNW NIR 25 WNW HDO 50 N DRT 45 SSW ABI 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 40 SW GNT 35 ENE 4BL 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 25 SW PUB 55 NNW TCC 55 ENE CVS 30 E PVW 20 NNE SPS 20 NNW FSM 20 ESE PAH 25 S SDF 25 ENE LEX 25 ESE HTS 10 SW BKW 45 SSW PSK 30 W RDU 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ERN TX...MUCH OF LA...EXTREME SERN AR...MUCH OF MS AND AL...FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX EWD ACROSS LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TO THE SERN STATES... ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SERN AR...MS...AL...FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING PER WV IMAGERY WILL TRACK ESEWD TOWARD WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AMPLIFY/DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND CENTRAL TX WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ONGOING AND NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SERN STATES WWD INTO TX. ADDITIONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /90-120 METERS PER 12 HOURS/ WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SPREAD EWD. ...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS A LITTLE FARTHER WNWWD. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW OVER SE TX BY 21Z WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...POTENTIAL REACHING SERN AL/SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE GIVEN THAT THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL NOSE INTO THIS AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TX COAST AND OVER SRN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE....WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL TX. AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO SLY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND LEAD TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE WARM FRONT AND RICH GULF MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG EXPECTED FROM LA EWD TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 35 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF TX...EXCLUDING DEEP S TX WHERE A CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN FLANK...GENERALLY ESE OF SAT/AUS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE GREATER SBCAPE IS EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS TX...REACHING LA TO THE NWRN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TROUGH AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FL INTO THE SERN STATES. SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THREATS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AL/SWRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 19:55:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 14:55:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503261954.j2QJsTGo006148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261951 SWODY1 SPC AC 261950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GLS 50 ENE LFK 45 E SHV 30 NW MLU 35 SW UOX 35 WSW MSL 25 S HSV 30 WNW LGC 25 SSE CSG 15 SE ABY 35 E TLH 30 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 20 SSW PSX 50 S CLL 60 NE CLL 15 ENE GGG 30 SSE TXK 30 NW ELD 30 WSW PBF 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP 40 SW GNT 35 ENE 4BL 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 25 SW PUB 55 NNW TCC 55 ENE CVS 30 E PVW 20 NNE SPS 20 NNW FSM 20 ESE PAH 25 S SDF 25 ENE LEX 25 ESE HTS 10 SW BKW 45 SSW PSK 30 W RDU 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... 50 NNE BRO 30 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM FAR SERN TX EWD ACROSS LA AND PORTIONS OF MS...AL...GA AND FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS LA...MS...AL INTO SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL... ...E TX ACROSS GULF COAST INTO SERN CONUS... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z LIX SOUNDING INDICATE THAT INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD FROM SERN TX/SRN LA EWD INTO SRN GA. LATEST TENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA AS WELL AS SHORT-TERM RUC/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD WITH TIME ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT NWD INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LA...MS AND AL. REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE MARKEDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE SERN TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MS DELTA REGION. APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL OCCUR ALONG/E OF THIS LOW TRACK TONIGHT FROM SRN/CNTRL LA INTO SRN/CNTRL MS. ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY EWD ALONG WARM FRONT WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA REGIME FROM SRN/CNTRL AL INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP N OF WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS TN VALLEY...NEWD INTO NRN GA/SC. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG THE GULF COAST...PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 400. ...NM INTO FAR WRN TX... DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HAIL THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 399. ..MEAD.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 01:08:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 20:08:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503270107.j2R17jSI003229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270106 SWODY1 SPC AC 270104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 40 NW BTR 50 E MLU 20 WSW GWO 30 NE TUP 20 SSW HSV 10 SW LGC 15 SE ABY 25 SE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DAB 10 WNW PIE ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 25 ENE MLU 15 NNE MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 25 SSW AVL 15 N CAE 20 E CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 35 NE DMN 45 N GNT 15 WNW DRO 50 SSE MTJ 20 W ALS 45 NNW LVS 40 ENE 4CR 30 NE HOB 30 E PVW 25 S OKC 30 SW EVV 30 WSW BLF 20 WSW GSO 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... 50 NNE BRO 30 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA...MUCH OF MS AND AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION... ...LOWER MS VALLEY / CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST STATES... FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODE UNDERWAY ATTM FROM LA / MS EWD INTO GA / THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES / SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW IS NOW INDICATED OVER SWRN MS / ERN LA...WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM / MOIST GULF AIR NWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION ON SLY / SELY WINDS. DEGREE OF MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MARGINALLY- TO MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACH FROM THE W. AS A RESULT...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS MS / AL -- AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO NRN MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THIS REGION IN PARTICULAR...A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND / TORNADO EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER E...A LOWER-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END 0F THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 06:13:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 01:13:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503270612.j2R6CSF2019035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270610 SWODY1 SPC AC 270606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS TCL 35 ENE TUP 40 NNW MSL 35 E BNA 10 ESE LOZ 30 SSE 5I3 25 ESE TRI 40 ENE HKY 20 WNW SOP 20 SSW FAY 25 ENE ILM ...CONT... 10 ENE JAX 20 SSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE GPT 50 N MEI 35 ENE MEM 45 SE PAH 20 ESE OWB 25 WNW LEX 45 E LUK 25 S UNI 15 WSW BKW 15 SW ROA 45 SSE CHO 40 S WAL ...CONT... 10 ESE MLB 30 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 ENE LFK 20 SSW GGG 40 E PRX 20 SSE UNO 15 E MVN 45 SSE MIE 30 WSW LBE 25 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW FCA 35 ESE 3TH 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AL...PARTS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN...SERN KY...SRN NC...CD...GA...AND NRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST / TN VALLEY / MID AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH / DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM TX / OK EWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WITH TIME...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INCLUDING 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER NRN MS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN BY MIDDAY...AND THEN SHOULD DEEPEN / MOVE NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. COMBINATION OF WARM / MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ...SOUTHEAST / MID SOUTH REGION TO THE MID / SRN ATLANTIC COAST... WIDESPREAD STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL / GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...WITH WEAKER CONVECTION SPREADING AS FAR NEWD AS THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING ACROSS MS NEAR COLD FRONT / WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SHOULD ALLOW STORMS OVER MS TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS AL / MIDDLE TN...ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDIRECTIONAL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG / DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...COMBINATION OF WEAK VEERING AND RAPIDLY-INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES -- BOTH WITHIN SQUALL LINE AND WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD INTO GA AND ACROSS ERN TN / SERN KY WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EVENING -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ..GOSS.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 12:23:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 07:23:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503271222.j2RCMVZf023727@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271219 SWODY1 SPC AC 271217 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 ESE LUL 15 SSW MEI 15 W CBM 35 NNE TUP 60 WSW BNA 40 SE BWG 40 NNW CSV 40 SSW LOZ 35 E TYS 10 NW AVL 15 W CLT 30 WNW FLO 30 N CHS 40 WSW CHS 25 WNW SAV 35 NNW AYS VLD 30 SSE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GPT 30 NE MSY 20 SE MCB 45 W JAN 25 ESE GLH 25 ENE MEM 45 NE MKL 20 SE SDF 55 SE LUK 10 SE HTS 30 W BLF 30 SSW BLF 35 S PSK 40 NNE RDU 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 ENE LFK 20 SSW GGG 40 E PRX 20 SSE UNO 15 E MVN 45 SSE MIE 30 WSW LBE 25 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW FCA 35 ESE 3TH 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM MS TO SERN KY MUCH OF NC ERN SC AND MUCH OF FL... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...TN VALLEY...AND CAROLINAS TODAY... ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER TX. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND LARGE AREA OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM MS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. ...LA/AR/MS/TN THIS MORNING... LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UPPER FORCING IS NOW OVER CENTRAL LA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS AXIS OVERNIGHT /REF WW 95/. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AR/EASTERN LA/WESTERN MS. THIS AREA IS POST-FRONTAL...WITH HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY LATE MORNING...WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. ...AL/GA/FL THIS MORNING... LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF GA AND SOUTHEAST AL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS /REF WW 96/. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MS/AL/GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PARTS OF MS AND AL WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG BENEATH 70-90 KNOT 500MB FLOW. COMBINATION OF AMPLE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FROM EASTERN MS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL INTO GA AND WESTERN SC. PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN ALSO APPEAR TO BE AT GREATER RISK AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF LINE...POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN...AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA/SC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ...CAROLINAS TONIGHT... LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER DARK TONIGHT. DESPITE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA...VERY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS INTO NC AFTER 06Z. ...FL TONIGHT... TAIL END OF SQUALL LINE SHOULD SWEEP INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL TONIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..CARBIN/HART/BANACOS.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 16:41:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 11:41:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503271640.j2RGetLR028946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271632 SWODY1 SPC AC 271631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MOB 60 NNE MOB 40 SW TCL 30 ENE CBM 15 WSW MSL 40 NNE MSL 25 SE BNA 20 WNW CSV 40 SE CSV 20 ESE RMG 25 WSW AHN 10 N AGS 50 NNE SAV 30 ENE SAV 20 NE SSI 30 E VLD 35 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT 30 SSE LUL 45 SW CBM 35 SSE MKL 40 NE MKL 30 SE SDF 55 W HTS 10 SE HTS 25 NW BLF 35 NNW GSO 30 NNE RDU 25 SE ORF ...CONT... MLB 15 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 20 SE S06 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BVE 45 SE MCB 25 NNE MCB 40 N HEZ 15 NW MLU 40 N ELD 25 NW LIT 20 WNW POF 15 SW MVN 40 SSE MIE 30 N MGW 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN SWD ACROSS AL AND GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER E TX WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL/GA BY TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...THE SURFACE LOW INVOF NW AL WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN TO ERN KY BY LATE TONIGHT. ONLY SLOW EWD MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM MS INTO WRN AL...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT ACROSS AL/GA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE STATES. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS MORNING...AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS AL/GA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS AL...BUT CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST NWD INTO CENTRAL AL...WHERE 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE VERY MOIST AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. THIS EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES MAY CONFINE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT TO SE AL AND SRN/CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER N ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE SURFACE LOW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL TEND TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE NERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS IN QUESTION GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING BAND OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAS REINFORCED THE WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE PIEDMONT...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MERGED WITH THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COMBINED BOUNDARY. STILL...A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR AND ABOVE THE GROUND SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS N GA. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 19:55:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 14:55:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503271954.j2RJsYbe007475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271952 SWODY1 SPC AC 271950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MOB 65 NNE MOB 30 SSW TCL 50 S MSL 20 NE MSL 45 S BNA 35 WNW CSV 25 ENE CSV 15 SW TYS 45 ENE RMG 25 WNW AHN 10 N AGS 50 NNE SAV 30 ENE SAV 20 NE SSI 30 E VLD 35 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 35 S MOB 40 SE MEI 20 NNE CBM 35 WNW MSL 15 SW CKV 30 SE SDF 55 W HTS 10 SE HTS 25 NW BLF 35 NNW GSO 30 NNE RDU 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 20 SE S06 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE GPT 40 N GPT 35 W LUL 45 NNE HEZ 40 ENE MLU 25 SE PBF 40 SSW JBR 30 E POF 35 SE MVN 40 SSE MIE 30 N MGW 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF AL/TN EWD ACROSS MUCH OF GA...NRN FL AND SRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST/ERN TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS MS INTO AL. LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS APPEAR TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS AS MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER NWRN AL /N OF TCL/. MAIN WARM FRONT /LIKELY DELINEATING EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW/ EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND INTO ERN KY...WHILE COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OR VERY SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS WRN AL. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SERN/E-CNTRL AL INTO GA HAS REINFORCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR MGM ESEWD THROUGH ABY TO AYS. THUS...SYSTEM WARM SECTOR CURRENTLY IS LIMITED TO AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL AL SWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...THEN BROADENING CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SRN AL...FAR SRN GA AND FL. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR THE AL/TN...TO 1500 J/KG OVER THE FL PNHDL /REF 18Z BHM SOUNDING/. ...MIDDLE TN/AL EWD ACROSS GA...NRN FL INTO SC... PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD MORE RAPIDLY TONIGHT. BROAD AREA OF SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 M/S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SUPERCELLS FROM THE NERN GULF TO N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEDGE FRONT. SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT FOR A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE/ FROM SRN/CNTRL AL EWD INTO SRN/CNTRL GA AND POSSIBLY SRN SC LATE TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD 418. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM NRN AL INTO ERN TN. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /ESPECIALLY E/NE OF SURFACE LOW TRACK/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE SRN INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...TO N OF RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEDGE FRONT. STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 01:19:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 20:19:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503280118.j2S1IaQQ003385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280116 SWODY1 SPC AC 280114 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 10 SSW PNS 15 ESE SEM 55 NNW MSL 20 SW HOP 35 SSE SDF 15 SSE 5I3 20 ENE HSS 25 E CLT 25 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE GPT 40 NE MOB 15 WNW SEM 30 SSW MSL 15 NNE GLH 20 E PBF 40 SSW JBR 30 E POF 35 SE MVN 40 SSE MIE 30 N MGW 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 20 SE S06 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SERN CONUS... THREAT FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SWRN GA / N FL. STRONG UPPER TROUGH / LOW NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS MID / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD...ACCOMPANIED BY 110 KT JET STREAK. WITH MOIST / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE S OF SLOWLY-RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN GA AND VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHIFTING ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT /NOW OVER CENTRAL MS/ WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. LESSER SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS ERN AL / TN / SRN KY...AND MAY SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME ACROSS SC AND INTO NC...THOUGH COOL / STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITHIN REMNANT COLD-AIR DAMMING REGIME SHOULD BE SLOW TO RETREAT...THUS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY AT LOW LEVELS. ..GOSS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 05:50:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 00:50:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503280550.j2S5o7LL028601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280548 SWODY1 SPC AC 280546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ILM 20 SSW RDU 10 NE DAN 15 ENE LYH 20 ENE CHO 10 SSW BWI 10 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SRQ 35 NNW DAB ...CONT... 35 NNE SSI 15 NW AGS 60 WNW AND CSV 35 ENE SDF 20 SE DAY 30 NNW ZZV 25 N PIT 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MSO 25 W BZN 25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 45 WNW BIS 45 SE REJ 25 SSE GCC 30 W LND 25 SE VEL 35 NNW 4BL 35 SSW PGA 40 WNW IGM 40 SSW DRA 20 NNW BFL 10 NNW SCK 25 ENE RBL 50 NW BNO 20 WSW LWS 10 WSW MSO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN VA / ERN NC AND THE DELMARVA REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE TN VALLEY -- WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY...AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP E OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER INLAND VA / NC DURING THE DAY...AND THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EWD / OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDNIGHT. WITH WARM FRONT FORECAST TO BE MOVING NWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND COLD FRONT MOVING EWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...A NARROW WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN INLAND ACROSS ERN NC / ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...ERN VA / ERN NC / THE DELMARVA REGION... IN ADDITION TO QUESTIONS REGARDING POSSIBILITY OF NARROW WARM SECTOR REMAINING ONSHORE...ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR REGARDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW COULD YIELD SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS COULD REMAIN COOL / CLOUDY / STABLE...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 12:49:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 07:49:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503281248.j2SCmg9o023966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281246 SWODY1 SPC AC 281244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ILM 20 SSW RDU 10 NE DAN 15 ENE LYH 20 ENE CHO 10 SSW BWI 10 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CHS 30 NW AND 45 SW TYS 30 ENE LEX 35 SSW CMH 25 NNE ZZV 25 N PIT 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM ...CONT... 20 SSE SRQ 35 ENE ORL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MSO 25 W BZN 25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 45 WNW BIS 45 SE REJ 25 SSE GCC 30 W LND 25 SE VEL 35 NNW 4BL 35 SSW PGA 40 WNW IGM 40 SSW DRA 20 NNW BFL 10 NNW SCK 25 ENE RBL 50 NW BNO 20 WSW LWS 10 WSW MSO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NC AND THE DELMARVA REGION... ...NC/VA THIS MORNING... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING ACROSS NC/VA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF EMBEDDED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. MORE INTENSE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...WITH LARGE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY LATE MORNING...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. ...NC/VA THIS AFTERNOON... SOME DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NC/VA IN THE WAKE OF MORNING PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO EASTERN NC/SOUTHEAST VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. POCKET OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STRONG UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION...PROMOTING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 16:18:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 11:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503281618.j2SGI6B5014429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281610 SWODY1 SPC AC 281609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 15 N OAJ 10 NE RWI 40 SE CHO 30 ENE CHO 15 SE BWI 25 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 NE MLB ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 10 SE SOP 30 NNE CLT 30 WSW HKY 20 S TRI 20 N 5I3 10 N UNI 35 W HLG 25 N PIT 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BFL 10 NNE SCK 60 SE RBL 30 E RBL 65 SSW BNO 65 N BNO 10 E ALW 25 W MSO 20 SW BTM 25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 25 NE DIK 30 N REJ 15 ENE GCC 45 E WRL 50 NNW RIW 45 NNE BPI 30 E BPI 10 S RKS 40 W CAG 30 SSE MTJ 35 W FMN 80 NNE INW 50 WSW GCN 40 NW IGM 45 S DRA 25 NNW NID 20 NNW BFL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA... ....MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA... INTENSE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE EWD OFFSHORE BY LATE EVENING. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AT 16Z SERN VA WILL TRACK NEWD TO OFF SRN MD COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS OVER ERN CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. DRIER AIR IS SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO WLY ACROSS CAROLINAS WITH THE CURRENT VERY MOIST AIRMASS ERN NC/SERN VA BEING REPLACED BY THE DRIER AIR BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS OVER COASTAL NC/SERN VA THIS AM SHOULD WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS MOVE OFFSHORE. SOME THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLD UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NC. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRYING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO S OF SURFACE LOW...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THREAT ENDING BY 00Z. ..HALES/GUYER.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 20:01:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 15:01:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503282000.j2SK0w0a025417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281959 SWODY1 SPC AC 281957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ECG 40 W ECG 55 S RIC RIC 45 N RIC 25 NNE NHK 35 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAV AGS FLO 20 S OAJ 40 NNW EWN 45 N RWI PSK PKB LBE 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SMX 10 NNE SCK 60 SE RBL 30 E RBL 65 SSW BNO 65 N BNO 10 E ALW 25 W MSO 3DU 25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 25 NE DIK 30 N REJ 15 ENE GCC 45 E WRL 50 NNW RIW 45 NNE BPI BPI VEL CNY PGA 50 WSW GCN LAS NID BFL 40 ENE SMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA...SRN DELMARVA TIDEWATER REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER CYCLONE IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/REFLECTIVITY DATA...MOVING ENEWD FROM VICINITY TN/NC BORDER. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- NOW ANALYZED NEAR RIC...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DELMARVA BY 29/06Z...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY VORTEX ALOFT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE ALL BUT PORTIONS EXTREME SERN FL AND KEYS...AND HAS OCCLUDED FROM RIC-AREA LOW SEWD TO JUST OFFSHORE NRN OUTER BANKS. ...TIDEWATER REGION VA/MD/DE... SMALL AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS SERN VA... PERHAPS SPREADING INTO ERN SHORE REGION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM COLD ATLANTIC WATERS. CONVECTION OVER RIC AREA MAY BACKBUILD SEWD INTO NARROW PLUME OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE JUST BEHIND OCCLUDED FRONT. ACTIVITY IS IN REGIME THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE SYNOPTICALLY...BUT QUITE COMPRESSED IN SIZE -- NOSE OF LOW-MIDLEVEL DRY PUNCH...COLOCATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE/VORTICITY MAX NEAR SFC LOW CENTER...AND ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED PIEDMONT FRONT. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 427 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SW-NE ACROSS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS PRONOUNCED/POSTFRONTAL DRY ADVECTION REDUCES AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL CAA AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING...FURTHER LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GEN TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR AS FAR NE AS PORTIONS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 29 00:55:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 19:55:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503290054.j2T0snkB018357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290052 SWODY1 SPC AC 290050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW HSE 40 ENE LYH 35 W DCA 35 ESE MGW 20 WNW AOO 10 SE POU 30 NNW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE FCA 30 ENE HLN 25 SSE 3HT 30 NNW GGW 55 NW ISN 40 ESE P24 15 NNW MBG 40 S 81V 45 E WRL 25 NNE RIW 20 E LND 25 SE RWL 20 W COS 35 SE ALS 40 NNE 4SL 20 SSW CEZ 50 N INW 30 N PRC 45 SSW LAS 50 ENE DRA 50 W U24 30 SW EKO 20 SSW ALW 35 NNW 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD...AND IS EXPECTED TO VACATE THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS / SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. THOUGH SMALL HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STABILIZED ACROSS THE REGION TO THE DEGREE THAT ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FURTHER WEST...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. / THE ROCKIES. MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 03/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 29 05:52:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 00:52:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503290551.j2T5pHSQ002598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290549 SWODY1 SPC AC 290547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE 63S 60 NNW 27U 35 NW JAC 40 NW AKO 30 NW IML 40 S 9V9 45 SSW FAR 15 WNW BJI 35 NW HIB 40 E DLH 30 WNW CWA 15 NE MLI 10 NNE VIH 20 NNW HOT 30 WNW PGO 25 WSW TUL 25 NNE END 25 N GAG 30 ENE TCC 25 SSE ABQ 80 NNE INW 15 NNE ELY 55 ESE 4LW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED VORT MAX -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN CURVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...ELONGATED PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT NEWD TOWARD IA WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW / FRONT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... AS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/. THOUGH CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS...A LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER E INTO CENTRAL KS / ERN NEB...GREATER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...A LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ..GOSS.. 03/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 29 12:39:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 07:39:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503291238.j2TCcFqU019298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291236 SWODY1 SPC AC 291234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE 63S 60 NNW 27U 35 NW JAC 40 NW AKO 30 NW IML 40 S 9V9 45 SSW FAR 15 WNW BJI 35 NW HIB 40 E DLH 30 WNW CWA 15 NE MLI 10 NNE VIH 20 NNW HOT 30 WNW PGO 25 WSW TUL 25 NNE END 25 N GAG 30 ENE TCC 25 SSE ABQ 80 NNE INW 15 NNE ELY 55 ESE 4LW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UT/AZ IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL KS. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THIS REGION...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS EASTWARD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO REGION. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS. LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE ACTIVITY BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS/NEB AND WESTERN IA DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS /GENERALLY BETWEEN ICT AND DDC/. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THIS AREA...AND ERODE THE CAP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-01Z. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS AREA FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION RATHER SPARSE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CENTRAL KS MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS OF SCENARIO BECOME MORE EVIDENT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 03/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 00:57:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 19:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503300056.j2U0uetS000841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300054 SWODY1 SPC AC 300052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 35 ESE HLN 25 WSW RKS 35 E FCL 10 SSW MHE 55 N AXN 40 NE DLH 35 E IWD 10 SE VOK MLI 20 W UIN 25 E SZL 45 ENE BVO 50 SW END 30 N CVS 30 ESE ABQ 20 SW CDC 40 WNW OWY 30 N 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION... VORT MAX NOW OVER SERN CO / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION / SWRN KS WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM IN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...INVOF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CO. STRONGEST STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WHERE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXISTS. OVERALL HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE STRONG FORCING AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- MAINLY AS A RESULT OF MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE...LIKELY SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW. ..GOSS.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 06:25:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 01:25:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503300624.j2U6OC8w018270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300622 SWODY1 SPC AC 300620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SBN 10 SE MIE SDF 35 SSW CKV DYR 30 E POF 40 NW CGI 35 ESE OTM 15 N CID 20 SW LNR 25 NNW MSN 15 WNW MKE 15 WNW BEH 35 ESE SBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE OSC 35 NNW CMH 35 ESE LUK 25 NW CSV 30 W CHA 35 SW TCL 50 W JAN 50 WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 65 ESE VIH 35 E IRK 30 NE LWD 10 SSW FOD 40 E EAU 35 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BUF 20 N PIT 20 N CRW 20 E JKL 20 W AVL 45 W AGS 60 SSE MCN 40 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BVE 15 NW BTR 30 S MLU LIT 15 ESE UNO JEF 40 S P35 20 SSW BIE 15 SE OLU 10 E FSD 25 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 35 WNW Y22 40 ESE 4BQ 40 SSE 81V 15 NNE CDR 50 SW MHN 20 NNE GCK 20 ESE P28 30 SSW PNC 20 WSW OKC 55 SW GAG 30 ESE RTN 35 N CEZ 35 NNE U28 15 S MLD 45 E S80 85 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TN / WRN KY NWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN MO / IL / IN / ERN IA / SRN WI.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD ACROSS THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER NERN KS SHOULD MOVE NEWD TO ERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE OHIO / TN VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD. AN 80-PLUS KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. MEANWHILE...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF 990 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG HEATING BENEATH DRY SLOT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FROM LA / MS NWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS IA AND VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF MAIN VORT MAX...CAP ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN CAP...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG / AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY ALLOWING STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD FROM ONGOING IA CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS ERN MO / IL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS IL / IN. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...PRIMARY STORM MODE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO 50 TO 60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR / HELICITY IS ANTICIPATED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS IL / SRN WI WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BACKED AHEAD OF IA SURFACE LOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR A STRONGER TORNADO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING HOURS FROM WRN TN NWD ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI. OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR EWD AS LOWER MI / WRN OH / CENTRAL KY / MIDDLE TN...WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 12:52:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 07:52:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503301251.j2UCpPjE024143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301249 SWODY1 SPC AC 301247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE AZO 10 ESE MIE 10 WNW SDF 20 WSW BNA 15 NNW MSL 25 S TUP 30 SSW UOX MEM 25 SW PAH SLO 20 N ALN 35 SSW UIN 25 E DSM 35 WSW ALO 55 NE ALO 25 NNW MSN 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 30 SW CAK 25 WNW UNI 30 NW CSV 15 NE ANB 10 SW TOI 40 ENE MOB 40 WNW MOB 25 SSW JAN 30 S GLH 50 WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 30 ENE VIH 25 SSE P35 15 ENE OMA 35 WSW SPW 45 WNW EAU 10 W ESC 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BUF 20 N PIT 20 N CRW 20 E JKL 20 W AVL 45 W AGS 60 SSE MCN 40 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GPT 20 W BTR 35 WSW MLU LIT 10 S UNO 20 SW JEF 45 ENE MKC 20 SSW BIE 30 NE OFK 10 E FSD 25 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 45 WNW Y22 35 WNW PHP 40 ESE AIA 20 NNE GCK 20 ESE P28 30 SSW PNC 20 WSW OKC 55 SW GAG 55 N SAF 15 S CEZ 20 NNW U28 15 S MLD 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...MUCH OF IL...MUCH OF IND...WESTERN KY...WESTERN TN...AND NORTHERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEB/KS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS MO/IA AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WESTERN IA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TWO AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE AREA ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL/WI/NORTHERN IND. THE SECOND AREA FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO NORTHERN MS. ...IA/MS THIS MORNING... ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. PLEASE REFER TO MD NUMBER 430 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...IA/WI/IL/NRN IND THIS AFTERNOON... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IA. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -20 WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION IN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET. SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY...ORGANIZING INTO BROKEN LINES OF SEVERE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES UNTIL AFTER DARK...POTENTIALLY LESSENING THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. REGARDLESS... NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA. ...SRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THIS EVENING... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60F AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN AR...AND MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KY/TN AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. CORE OF 80 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL NOSE ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND THAT TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL JET BECOMING MORE DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A WEAK CAP. ALSO...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. IF MOISTURE RETURN IS AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME ACROSS EASTERN MS AND MUCH OF AL. ..HART/JEWELL.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:26:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:26:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503301625.j2UGPa0W027713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301603 SWODY1 SPC AC 301601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE AZO 10 ESE MIE 10 WNW SDF 20 WSW BNA 15 NNW MSL 25 S TUP 30 SSW UOX MEM 20 SE CGI 25 SE BLV 20 N ALN 35 SSW UIN 25 E DSM 35 WSW ALO 55 NE ALO 25 NNW MSN 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 30 SW CAK 25 WNW UNI 30 NW CSV 15 NE ANB 10 SW TOI 40 ENE MOB 40 WNW MOB 25 SSW JAN 30 S GLH 50 WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 30 ENE VIH 25 SSE P35 15 ENE OMA 35 WSW SPW 45 WNW EAU 10 W ESC 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 40 S ELD 40 NE LIT 20 ESE UNO TBN SZL 20 NNE BIE 20 NE OFK 30 N AXN 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 50 S Y22 35 NW PHP 40 W MHN 20 SW MCK 10 E P28 15 S PNC 35 N ADM 30 NW LTS 30 ENE ABQ 45 NNW GUP 35 ESE SLC 10 NE BYI 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ERI 15 SSW CRW 35 NW AGS 15 NNW AQQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...MUCH OF IL...MUCH OF IND...WESTERN KY AND NORTHERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEB/KS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS MO/IA AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN IA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WRN WI TONIGHT..WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TWO AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE AREA ACROSS PARTS OF IA/SRN MN/IL/WI/NORTHERN IND. THE SECOND AREA FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO NORTHERN MS. ...IA/MN/WI/IL/NRN IND... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WRN IA WILL INCREASE AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM WRN IA INTO NWRN MO. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PREVAIL OVER THIS REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -20C WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION IN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET. SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY...ORGANIZING INTO BROKEN LINES OF SEVERE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI. DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL IL/WRN IN POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ...SRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60F SPREADING NEWD ACROSS AR WITH MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KY/TN AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. CORE OF 80 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL NOSE ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND THAT TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL JET BECOMING MORE DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION AFTER 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A WEAK CAP. ALSO...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. IF MOISTURE RETURN IS AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME ACROSS EASTERN MS AND MUCH OF AL. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 20:20:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 15:20:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503302019.j2UKJ97M021859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302016 SWODY1 SPC AC 302014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE AZO 10 ESE MIE 25 W IND 40 N EVV MVN ALN 30 SSW MLI CID 20 SSW ALO 20 NNE MCW 35 WSW LSE 15 S OSH 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W JAN 20 W GWO 25 NW UOX 40 S MKL 30 WNW MSL 15 SSE MSL 20 ENE TCL 40 SSE MEI 30 E MCB 40 ENE HEZ 40 W JAN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 30 SW CAK 35 S SDF 35 E BNA 10 S ANB TOI 40 ENE MOB MSY ESF 30 S GLH 35 W MEM 25 NW POF 35 ENE VIH OTM 40 SSW FOD FRM 45 WNW EAU 35 WNW IMT 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 40 S ELD 40 NE LIT 20 ESE UNO 15 NNE VIH IRK 30 NW LWD 25 E OFK 30 N AXN 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 50 S Y22 35 NW PHP 40 W MHN 20 SW MCK 10 E P28 15 S PNC 35 N ADM 30 NW LTS 30 ENE ABQ 45 NNW GUP 35 ESE SLC 10 NE BYI 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ERI 35 WNW BLF 35 NW AGS 40 WSW PFN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN IA...EXTREME SERN MN...SRN WI...AND IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT...PORTIONS MS AND WRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM WI...LM AND LOWER MI TO SERN LA AND PORTIONS MS/AL... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL/REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER SWRN IA...WHICH IS BECOMING MORE COLOCATED WITH SFC CYCLONE. EXPECT LOW AT ALL LEVELS TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...ACROSS WI. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER SERN IA...S-CENTRAL MO...NWRN AR AND N-CENTRAL TX...SHOULD MOVE EWD TO NRN LA...NRN MS...MID TN...ERN INDIANA AND LOWER MI BY 31/12Z. TWO SFC WARM FRONTS ARE ANALYZED -- ONE COINCIDENT WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM SFC LOW ACROSS SERN MN/NWRN WI...THE OTHER LIFTING NWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES STATES... AS LATTER WARM FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NWD...SO WILL SFC-BASED SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. CONTINUING DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION ALSO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL IN WARM SECTOR AND ALONG/AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN IL. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHEAR/BUOYANCY PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...EVENTUAL BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT...AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE. REF WWS 105-106 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. AREA BENEATH AND JUST NE OF COLD CORE REGION OF MIDLEVEL CYCLONE -- ACROSS NERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI...STILL POSE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS A FEW MORE NONSUPERCELL AND MINI-SUPERCELL TORNADOES. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY REMAINS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 434 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SFC HEATING LOSS REDUCES MLCAPES...HOWEVER HAIL FROM ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS WI AND PERHAPS ERN UPPER MI. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL... DEEP CONVECTION MAY REMAIN SUPPRESSED DIURNALLY BENEATH STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN 18Z JAN RAOB. HOWEVER...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME TONIGHT OVER THIS REGION...AMIDST CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WAA FROM RAPIDLY MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS. SPATIAL WIDTH...VERTICAL DEPTH AND PW CONTENT OF FAVORABLY MOIST AIR WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT REMAINDER PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES DEW POINTS MID 60S F INTO ERN LA ATTM...70S OVER GULF S OF MS DELTA. SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEARLY SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF MS AND PERHAPS ADJOINING SECTIONS WRN AL/ERN LA. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG SBCAPE POSSIBLE BY 31/06Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITH EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH ROUGHLY 300 J/KG...200-300 J/KG SRH IN FIRST KM AGL...AND 60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ...SRN IL TO WRN TN... RELATIVE MIN IN TOTAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INDICATED FROM SRN IL SWD ACROSS NWRN TN --- IN BETWEEN TWO PRIMARY SEVERE AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN S OF SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC ADJUSTMENTS...RESULTING IN SOME VEERED FLOW AND RELATIVELY MINIMIZED CONVERGENCE. SOME CONVECTION MAY BACKBUILD INTO THIS AREA BRIEFLY -- INVOF SFC FRONT -- BEFORE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...AND NRN PORTION OF WAA/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME FROM GULF MAY BRUSH WRN TN TONIGHT. ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS STILL WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO BECAUSE OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBABILITIES SUFFICIENT FOR CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:02:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:02:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503310101.j2V11VU0001284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310058 SWODY1 SPC AC 310057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCB 30 S JAN 45 SW CBM 35 S CBM 40 SSW TCL 50 E LUL 20 NNW GPT 35 SE MCB MCB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MFD 35 NW LEX 35 SSW PAH 10 SSW POF 10 ENE ALN 15 E PIA RFD 35 NNE JVL 20 ESE OSH 50 S ESC 35 NNW APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 30 SW HEZ 30 S GLH 20 ESE MEM 10 SSW MKL 55 SSW CKV 15 SE BNA 35 NW CHA 25 ENE GAD 20 ESE MGM 20 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE GLD 25 SSW P28 55 E OKC 20 NW ADM SPS 25 E PVW TCC 20 SW PUB 30 N CYS 15 ENE BFF 15 SSE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 55 SSE GDV 25 S 4BQ 50 SSE BIL 15 WNW 3HT 25 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI TRI AHN 30 WNW PFN ...CONT... 35 WSW 7R4 30 W ESF 30 SE PBF 30 N ARG 30 SSW SPI 40 ENE MLI 25 SW ALO 30 E FRM 70 NNE MSP 15 WNW IWD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MS AND A SMALL PART OF WRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS...TN AND AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE GREAT LAKE STATES... ...GREAT LAKE STATES... INTENSE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS MOVING INTO SWRN WI THIS EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD AND PUSHING INTO WRN IL/SWRN WI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS ADVECTING MID/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NWD THROUGH WI AND STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT GIVEN THE COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS. ...MS/AL AND TN... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SPREADING NWD ACROSS SERN LA AND EXTREME SRN MS. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM IS AROUND 20 KT AND SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. SOME CONCERN IF TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK...ESPECIALLY SINCE EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPDRAFT BASES MAY STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... MODERATE RISK WAS MAINTAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MS AND A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL AL...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO OCCUR. ..IMY.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 06:03:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 01:03:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503310602.j2V62Fso021011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310559 SWODY1 SPC AC 310558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ESF LFK 25 ESE TYR 15 SSW UOX 20 NNE GAD 25 WNW LGC 10 SE MGM LUL 30 SSW ESF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 LCH CLL 50 SE DAL UOX 65 NNW AHN 40 NNW AGS SAV JAX 40 SSW VLD 40 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE EFK 35 WNW GFL 10 NW ELM 25 ENE HGR 25 SE NEL ...CONT... GLS 20 S SAT 45 ESE JCT 55 S BWD 30 S SEP 20 W MWL 60 WNW MWL 65 NNW ABI 50 WNW LBB 45 NE CVS LHX IML 35 WSW MBG 40 NE MBG 10 NE ATY 15 SSE OTG 10 S SUX 50 NE HLC 25 SSE GCK 20 SW GAG 35 W END 15 ENE PNC 40 NE TUL 45 E FSM 35 N LIT 35 E MKL 35 WNW LOZ 45 W UNI 25 ESE TOL 50 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF E TEXAS/NRN LA/CNTRL MS AND NRN AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES.... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...BROAD CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE EASTERN STATES. LEAD TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IN MORE NORTHERN STREAM...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NARROWING/SHRINKING WARM SECTOR WITH OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT WITH FORMER SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING JUST AHEAD OF FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF STATES TODAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IN MORE SOUTHERN STREAM DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STALLING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY ...PARTICULARLY AS WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH MID 60S/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BENEATH STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ...EASTERN GULF STATES... PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO LEAD NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE...AND PERHAPS A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE...OR SUBTROPICAL FEATURE...IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS ALABAMA/GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH CAPE LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A HAIL THREAT...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES MAY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. IF THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES... WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/LACK OF FOCUSED STRONG CONVERGENCE AND SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS...MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT IN SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR/SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...AND RISK FOR SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW EVOLVES/DEEPENS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES...WHICH MAY PERSIST/SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 12:48:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 07:48:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503311247.j2VClB53025836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311245 SWODY1 SPC AC 311243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ESF 20 SSE LFK 20 WNW CLL 55 WSW TYR 45 N TYR 40 ENE ELD 35 NE CBM 20 NE TCL 25 WNW SEM LUL 25 SW ESF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 LCH 40 NNE HOU 50 N PSX 50 ESE SAT 40 WNW AUS 30 NNW DAL 35 SSW ADM ADM 35 SW MLC 25 SSE PGO 15 S MEM 15 NNE RMG 20 NNE CAE 45 SW FLO 10 N SSI 40 ESE TLH 15 W AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 15 S VCT 40 ENE COT 30 NNE HDO 40 E JCT 10 SE SEP 60 WNW MWL 65 NNW ABI 50 WNW LBB 45 NE CVS LHX IML 35 WSW MBG 40 NE MBG 10 NE ATY 15 SSE OTG 10 S SUX 50 NE HLC 25 SSE GCK 20 SW GAG 35 W END 15 ENE PNC 40 NE TUL 45 E FSM 35 N LIT 35 E MKL 35 WNW LOZ 45 W UNI 25 ESE TOL 50 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 15 ENE EFK 35 WNW GFL 10 NW ELM 25 ENE HGR 25 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL...NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL MS...AND WESTERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LOW NOW NEAR DHT...AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. ...MS/AL/GA/SC/FL TODAY... LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL/GA. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY SEVERE ALL NIGHT...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO THE LINE MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING....WITH STORMS DEVELOPING INTO PARTS OF SC...SOUTHERN GA/AL...AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN FL THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF STORMS WILL AID SEVERE THREAT. STORMS MAY ALSO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ...EAST TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT EAST TX AND MUCH OF LA TODAY...AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 FROM DAL TO SAT BY AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES 1200-1900 J/KG/. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY AROUND 21Z FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT. INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO WESTERN LA WHERE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ...LA/MS/AL OVERNIGHT... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN LA INTO MS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...OR A FAST MOVING SEVERE MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IF THE MCS CAN DEVELOP...STORMS WILL LIKELY RACE EASTWARD ACROSS MS AND INTO AL BY 12Z. ..HART/JEWELL.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 16:45:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 11:45:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503311644.j2VGiQGK008029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311622 SWODY1 SPC AC 311620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BTR 45 NNW BPT 35 SE TPL 30 E ACT 45 NNW TYR 40 S PBF 25 ENE CBM 20 E TCL 60 SSW SEM 40 NNE GPT 25 W BTR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT 10 SSW HOU 50 N PSX 50 ESE SAT 45 NW AUS 30 NNW DAL 35 SSW ADM ADM 35 SW MLC 25 SSE PGO 20 NNW TUP 10 E LGC 20 WSW CAE 45 SW FLO 10 N SSI 40 ESE TLH 15 W AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CDR 40 NE 81V 35 WSW BIS 35 SSW JMS 25 ENE FSD 20 NNW OFK 20 SE ANW 30 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 50 ESE DRT 65 W JCT 30 NW BWD 50 N ABI 50 SSW LBB 40 WSW CVS 35 N TCC 50 E LAA 25 ENE HUT 10 E JLN 15 SE HRO 15 ENE JBR 15 ESE CKV 30 SSW LOZ 20 WNW PKB 40 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE EFK 20 WSW CON 15 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PBI 60 NE EYW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF LA/SRN AR...CENTRAL AND SRN MS AND WESTERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO TODAY AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT POSITION OK PANHANDLE TO AR/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT. REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE PRODUCED A FORMIDABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL GA WSWWD ACROSS SWRN AL THEN WWD INTO SRN LA. PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO WRN NY/PA HAS ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF IT. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS WORKED INLAND LOWER MS VALLEY TO S OF E/W BOUNDARY. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT N/NEWD TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS NRN LA AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. ...ERN TX EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES... FIRST AREA OF SEVERE CONCERN TODAY EXPECTED TO BE VICINITY E/W BOUNDARY LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH MLCAPES RISING TO ABOVE 2500 J/K BY EARLY AFTERNOON SRN LA/SRN MS...AND CAP ERODING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS ERN TX AND THEN INTO NRN LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGH ADVECTING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEWD ACROSS ERN TX INTO NRN LA/SRN AR. IN BOTH AREAS DISCUSSED CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE MDT RISK. ADDITIONALLY AS THE CONVECTIVE AREAS EVOLVE....DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS THE STORM MODE TRANSITIONS INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES EWD ACROSS MS/AL INTO GA. ISOLATED TORNADOS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY EARLY ON IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE REGIME. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 19:50:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 14:50:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503311948.j2VJmwTF001063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311946 SWODY1 SPC AC 311944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BTR 45 NNW BPT 30 ENE CLL 45 ESE ACT 50 ENE ACT 40 NW TYR 45 SSE PRX 40 S PBF CBM 20 N 0A8 20 N SEM 40 SW SEM 35 NNW MOB 25 W BTR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 20 SE PFN ...CONT... 15 WSW GLS 45 NE VCT 35 S AUS 40 WNW AUS 50 W TPL 10 NW FTW 15 SE ADM 20 S MLC 15 S LIT 30 NE TUP 10 NNW RMG 15 NNW CAE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E EFK 15 E CON 20 SW EWB ...CONT... 25 N PBI 60 NE EYW ...CONT... 30 SSW PSX 30 W NIR 45 NW COT 45 E DRT 25 WNW JCT 50 WNW MWL 40 SSW SPS 55 WSW SPS 60 NW ABI 50 SSW LBB 30 S CVS 35 N TCC 30 SSE LAA 50 NNE GCK 30 SE SLN 25 E CNU 25 S HRO 55 NNE LIT 30 E MKL 50 N CSV 10 NNE HTS 25 WNW PKB 40 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BUB 25 NNE MHN 25 N CDR 45 NW RAP 15 NE REJ 25 ESE Y22 50 NW ABR 25 NNE ATY 20 NE FSD 20 SSE YKN 50 NE BUB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX...LA...MS...WRN AL AND FAR SRN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL ADVANCE EWD TONIGHT REACHING ERN OK LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE/FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE DALLAS AREA EXTENDING SSWWD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SRN TX HILL COUNTRY. SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE FROM THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS LA AND SRN MS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TX STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE STORMS STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING EWD ACROSS EAST TX INTO THE WRN PART OF THE MDT RISK AREA. A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. AS CELLS INITIATE...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE MDT RISK AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE COLDER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL MAKE VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS LA INTO MS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ENHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ERN LA...CNTRL AND SRN MS...AND WRN AL DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME-FRAME. ...ERN AL/GA/SC... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN GA EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF AL AND GA...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN UNSTABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. AS AN UPPER-LOW AND LARGE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AL...GA AND SC WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 09Z ACROSS ERN AL AND GA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE DUE TO SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 03:54:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 22:54:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503010519.j215Jllp024815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010517 SWODY1 SPC AC 010515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FMN 55 WSW ALS 35 E TCC 40 W CSM 15 S OKC 25 SE MLC 35 NNW SHV 25 NE VCT 20 W NIR 25 SSW HDO 30 SW MAF 35 WSW ROW 30 SSE GUP 20 SW FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS NEXT UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MEAN INTERMOUNTAIN W RIDGE BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS FROM CNTRL CANADA SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP OVER ERN NM WITH WEAK WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM E-CNTRL NM TO THE UPPER TX COAST. ...NM INTO TX/SRN OK... INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED WITH SBCAPES AOB 100-200 J/KG. MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER THE POOR INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND FIELDS BELOW 6 KM AGL SUGGEST ANY SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL MORE ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL INTO N TX AND SRN OK WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG 30-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS. GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG AND AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAINLY OVER N TX. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND SPREAD AS FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..MEAD.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 11:38:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 06:38:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503011303.j21D3IoY028918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011301 SWODY1 SPC AC 011259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW FMN 50 NE U28 35 NNW CAG 25 NE 4FC 35 NE ALS 35 E TCC 40 W CSM 30 E OKC 40 ESE PGO 25 SSE TXK 20 WNW GLS 40 S VCT 25 SSW HDO 30 SW MAF 35 WSW ROW 45 SSW GNT 65 WSW FMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW AST 15 SW SLE 35 SW MFR 10 S RBL 45 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW OVER IND/OH WILL MOVE E/NE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER MANITOBA DROPS SE INTO THE OH VLY. IN THE SRN BRANCH...WELL-DEFINED IMPULSE NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS TODAY BEFORE ASSUMING SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE RED RIVER VLY OF TX EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF FOUR CORNERS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED LEE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN HI PLNS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL...HOWEVER...BE MEAGER AS SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION IS STILL IN PROGRESS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...SRN CO/NM INTO SRN OK/NRN AND CNTRL TX... COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE CO AND NM MOUNTAINS TODAY. GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY STRONG. COUPLED WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL AS THEY DRIFT/ DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER NRN AND CNTRL TX AND POSSIBLY SRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED /BASED NEAR 700 MB/ AND WILL FEED ON PACIFIC MOISTURE BROUGHT EWD WITH UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN 40-45 KTS CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF 300-400 J/KG MUCAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 15:10:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 10:10:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503011635.j21GZYIf004403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011632 SWODY1 SPC AC 011631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SE LRD 10 S LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 45 NNW BGS 25 ENE PVW 50 N CDS 45 WNW OKC 60 E OKC 30 E MLC 15 WSW TXK 50 ENE LFK 20 S BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S AST 30 N MFR 35 S RBL 15 NNW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW 4CR 15 W ONM 30 SSW GNT 45 SW CEZ 15 ESE VEL 35 SE RKS 35 WSW RWL 15 ESE RWL 15 SSE LAR 25 NE DEN 45 SSE LHX 35 NNE TCC 35 WNW CVS 15 SW 4CR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER WRN NM/ WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS TX TONIGHT AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF ASSOCIATED SLY LLJ WHICH WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD EXPAND INTO AN MCS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL/DRY...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND REMAIN ROOTED NEAR H85. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND HAIL AT OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NM HIGH PLAINS... COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE ERN NM PLAINS DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY BECOME COLLOCATE. ...PAC NW... MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPPER LOW NOW NEAR 41N/130W WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN CA/ORE COASTS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..EVANS/BROYLES.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 18:38:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 13:38:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503012003.j21K3Ght007476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012000 SWODY1 SPC AC 011958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 50 S SAT 35 NE DRT 25 WSW FST 25 SSE CNM 50 NW GDP ONM 50 NNW GUP 30 SSE CNY 35 SSW VEL 25 NNE VEL 45 ESE RKS 45 SW LAR 20 SE 4FC 25 ENE PUB 20 SSW LAA EHA 60 SSW LBL 45 WNW CSM 25 SSW OKC 20 WSW MLC 40 W TXK 30 N GGG 30 SSE TYR 10 WNW LFK 35 NNW BPT 25 SSE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO N TX... WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA MOVING ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...TCU AND CB HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NM/CO WITH A FEW ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING OVER NM LAST HOUR. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS W TX THIS EVENING AND TO NW/CNTRL TX BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE...AIRMASS ACROSS TX WAS QUITE DRY THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM THE PECOS VLY NWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEEP LAYER OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC/STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE DARK. ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER... AFTER DARK...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND LIFT AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE AS ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE STRENGTHENS. THIS PROCESS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE NM/TX BORDER EWD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THIS REGIME...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRONG SHEAR...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OFFSET THESE DEFICIENCIES FOR AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF A COUPLE OF HAIL STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..CARBIN.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 23:24:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 18:24:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503020049.j220nfQs005263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020047 SWODY1 SPC AC 020046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 50 S SAT 35 NE DRT 25 WSW FST 35 E GDP 50 NW GDP 10 W CEZ 20 NW GJT 50 SW CAG 30 N EGE 40 W COS 40 SE TAD 50 E DHT 35 W CSM 25 SSW OKC 20 WSW MLC 40 W TXK 30 N GGG 30 SSE TYR 25 SSE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM...TX AND SRN OK... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM N-CNTRL NM SEWD TO JUST E OF TCC WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TX /E AND NE OF SJT/. THE NM STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY CENTER TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED BY 00Z AMA SOUNDING. OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG AND N OF WNW-ESE ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MAF TO NEAR CLL WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME /PER LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS/. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT FROM VICINITY OF ONGOING TX STORMS NWD INTO SRN OK WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU NWD INTO W-CNTRL AND NRN TX WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG/ WILL CO-EXIST. ..MEAD.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 04:24:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 23:24:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503020548.j225mvK5005848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020546 SWODY1 SPC AC 020545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 SSW CDS 20 WSW CSM 10 NNE OKC 25 WSW FSM 25 W MEI 50 E LUL 30 W PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE TPH BAM 40 ESE OWY 40 NE ENV 30 SSW 4BL 45 NW GUP 15 NNE INW 20 NNE PRC 20 SE IGM 25 SE LAS 40 ESE TPH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WRN TX...CNTRL CO AND A LOWER-LATITUDE FEATURE EMBEDDED INTO SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH OVER BAJA CA. THE WRN TX TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES ESEWD WHILE UPSTREAM CO SYSTEM DIGS SEWD THROUGH OKLAHOMA. TO THE W...BAJA DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WRN PORTION OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE FROM CNTRL TX INTO NRN GULF WILL LIKELY SAG SWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW GENERATED FROM TSTM COMPLEX IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL TX. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMPOSITE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ...TX... TSTM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM CNTRL TX INTO LA...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUSTAINED...BUT WEAKENING WAA ALONG NOSE OF VEERING LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...THOUGH ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL...MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER S TX ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH APPROACH OF BAJA SYSTEM. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND WHAT EFFECT THICK...SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW-LATITUDE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO DEEP S TX OWING TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 11:40:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 06:40:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503021305.j22D5EbJ031566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021303 SWODY1 SPC AC 021301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TPH 80 NW WMC 70 WNW OWY 50 SW TWF 40 ENE U24 30 SSW 4BL 40 NW GUP 15 NNE INW 20 NE PRC 30 SE IGM 40 SE LAS 25 W TPH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT 35 SSW BGS 50 SSE LBB 45 WSW CDS 15 WSW CSM 10 NNW OKC 20 WSW FSM 25 ESE HOT 20 SE GLH 30 W MEI 45 E LUL 30 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE WNW TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS TODAY... DOWNSTREAM FROM LONG WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE W CST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE WRN AND S CNTRL STATES. LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ...LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS IN TX...SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ESE IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY. UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW IN SRN CO SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR ESE HEADING TODAY...AND REACH SW AR EARLY THURSDAY. FARTHER S...AN IMPULSE IS APPARENT IN THE MORE SRN STREAM OF FLOW CROSSING NRN PORTIONS OF BAJA AND SONORA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE BIG BEND REGION LATE TODAY AND CROSS DEEP S TX EARLY THURSDAY. FINALLY...EXPECT STRONGER DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING WRN NV TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE SRN GRT BASIN LATER IN THE PERIOD. AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE DATA SHOW WARM/STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER S TX...ENHANCED IN PLACES BY COMPOSITE STORM OUTFLOW. SURFACE DEWPOINTS S OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW 60S BY AFTERNOON AS MODEST MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUES. ...S TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF S TX THIS AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS APPROACH OF BAJA SYSTEM AND SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZE REGION. WHILE SETUP COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...GIVEN COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERAL WEAKNESSES ARGUE AGAINST AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE EWD MOVEMENT OF MEXICAN VORT...THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR /ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS/ WILL REMAIN S OF THE MEXICAN BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...STLT LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRESENCE OF THICK WARM CONVEYOR BELT CIRRUS WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT MITIGATE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION... THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL VEER TO A WLY COMPONENT FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST/ DEEPEST CONVERGENCE EWD INTO THE GULF. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO S TX. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS THAT MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 15:00:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 10:00:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503021625.j22GPVrx014773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021621 SWODY1 SPC AC 021620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TPH 25 ENE NFL WMC 40 NNE EKO 35 SSE U24 20 SW PGA 35 WSW GCN 10 E LAS 25 W TPH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 25 N SJT 35 NW MWL 40 SW TXK 15 ESE HEZ 25 N BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN TX... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS AIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...THOUGH OUTFLOW/SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED IN AN E-W FASHION FROM THE COASTAL BEND REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SRN STREAM REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TX WITH MODEST WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO AID DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND ONLY MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NEW STORMS DEVELOP. ..EVANS/BROYLES.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 18:42:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 13:42:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503022007.j22K6x2F000755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022004 SWODY1 SPC AC 022003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 30 SE HDO SAT 30 WNW AUS 40 SE BWD 30 WNW SEP 30 WNW MWL 45 N MWL 40 N FTW 35 S PRX 40 NW SHV 50 ESE SHV 40 NW BTR MSY BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAS 30 N DRA 40 N TPH 30 N U31 25 ESE BAM 45 W ENV 20 NE U24 50 NW 4HV 15 SW 4BL 75 NW GUP 40 NNE FLG 45 E LAS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/LA... ARC OF STRONG CONVECTION IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW/THERMAL GRADIENT TRAILING BACK WWD INTO S TX. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN TX...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING BENEATH STJ RELATED CIRRUS SHIELD. IN ADDITION TO BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS S TX... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WHERE LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH ASCENT FROM SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING OVER WRN MEXICO...SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING OVER S TX WHERE PRE-OUTFLOW INSTABILITY IS A BIT GREATER AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG. ...SRN GREAT BASIN... MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING MEAN WRN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY FROM ERN NV ACROSS SWRN UT AND NRN AZ NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING NOW OCCURRING. ...WRN KS/NEB... HIGH-BASED CU FIELD HAS EXPANDED ATOP LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS/LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO/WRN KS NWD TO THE BLACK HILLS. DESPITE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORT MAX ON THE ERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE...MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOCAL CLOUD SCALE MOISTENING CAN OCCUR TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM IN VERY WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF CG LIGHTNING POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO JUSTIFY A TSTM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 23:36:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 18:36:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503030101.j2311d3L011537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030058 SWODY1 SPC AC 030057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE LAS 40 NNE DRA 40 N TPH 30 N U31 25 E BAM 40 W ENV 35 WNW DPG 50 ESE U24 30 ENE U17 65 ESE PGA 30 E GCN 55 ENE LAS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 60 ENE P07 30 SW SJT 20 E SJT 45 SSW BWD 40 NW AUS 30 SE AUS 45 WNW HOU 20 NW BPT 30 ENE LCH 25 N BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL THROUGH S TX... THE MCS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NW GULF WWD THROUGH S TX FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO NEAR LAREDO. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. RAOBS FROM CRP AND BRO SHOW THE WARM SECTOR OVER S TX TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS HEATING SUBSIDES...CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER SW TX BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANGELO WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD MODEST MOIST AXIS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. ...SRN NV THROUGH SW UT... PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. ...KS AND OK... AN AREA OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD THROUGH WRN KS IS SUPPORTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 04:20:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 23:20:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503030544.j235ioSd003310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030542 SWODY1 SPC AC 030540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR 30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 S HOB 15 SSE ABQ 40 NNE GCN 40 ESE MLF 50 E U24 35 NNE U28 35 NE TAD 60 WSW GAG 45 NNE CSM 30 N END 10 WSW MHK 20 ENE STJ 40 SE IRK 25 NNW STL 15 SW SLO 40 NE DYR 35 NNE LIT 45 E ACT 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW 4BK 45 WSW MHS 20 WNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THURSDAY WITH NWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AREA. SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST IN THE W WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. ...ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND SW OK... VORT MAX NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SHIFT TO SLY ACROSS W TX AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF S OF BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL PERSIST IN THE POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TX NWD THROUGH OK. DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM W TX NWD INTO PARTS OF OK AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECT EWD OVER THE MODEST MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF MOISTURE GRADIENT AS MIXING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF W AD W CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...BULK OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION AND ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIAL HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS W AND W CNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MO... NRN STREAM VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE FROM ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 11:40:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 06:40:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503031305.j23D55c0008965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031302 SWODY1 SPC AC 031300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR 30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR 30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 S HOB 40 S ABQ GUP 55 SW GCN 45 SW SGU 30 ENE P38 35 SW U24 50 E U24 35 NNE U28 35 NE TAD 60 WSW GAG 45 NNE CSM 30 N END 10 WSW MHK 20 ENE STJ 40 SE IRK 15 SW SLO 40 NE DYR 40 NNE LIT 35 NE DUA 55 E ACT 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW 4BK 45 WSW MHS 20 WNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MULTI STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD. TWO DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE LOOSELY-DEFINED MIDDLE BRANCH JET WILL BE THE MAIN DYNAMIC FEATURES MODULATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IMPULSE...A SMALL CLOSED LOW NOW OVER SRN UT... SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO NE NM LATE TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER N...WEAKER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SD SHOULD DROP SE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO BY THIS EVENING...AND INTO NRN AR BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...APPROACH OF UT DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING OVER ERN NM...AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN KS TO SRN MO. ...ERN NM/NW TX... THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE AZ AND NRN NM LATER AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ESE MOVEMENT OF UPPER IMPULSE DESTABILIZE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE MOUNTAIN STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE INTO THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM AND W TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OVER REGION WILL BE LIMITED IN WAKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE NOW IN THE NWRN GULF. BUT EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH LEE TROUGH. THESE CELLS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. THE CONVECTION MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER THAT CONTINUES SE INTO W CNTRL TX LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY IMPROVING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...COMBINATION OF DIURNAL COOLING AND LOWERING TERRAIN SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ...ERN KS INTO SW MO/NE OK/NW AR... WEAK SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM SD UPPER VORT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A SMALL AREA OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER PARTS OF KS/WRN MO. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION INVOF FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 15:05:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 10:05:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503031630.j23GU0Rm005939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031627 SWODY1 SPC AC 031625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE FMY 35 ENE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MAF 25 NE ONM 25 WSW GUP 60 NNE INW 15 WNW PGA 35 NE BCE 25 SSW U28 40 E GJT 45 E GUC 20 NNW TAD 45 N EHA 40 SW P28 35 SSW HUT 30 SSE SLN 30 SSW FNB 20 SSW P35 35 S UIN 15 ENE EVV 35 ESE OWB HOP JBR 65 N LIT 30 SE FYV 25 NE MLC 25 N DUA 15 S FTW 25 S SEP 35 S ABI 35 E BGS 30 NNW MAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL POSE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MO INTO TX/NM. ...KS/MO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SD. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MO BY EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THIS REGION...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IL. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL AID IN A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ...TX/OK... WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTHWEST TX. FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE QUITE LIMITED IN THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY COLD/UNSTABLE FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA ALSO APPEARS LOW. ..HART/JEWELL.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 18:32:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 13:32:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503031957.j23JuxLn016134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031954 SWODY1 SPC AC 031953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 15 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FYV 40 NE OKC 20 ESE END 35 NW PNC 25 WNW EMP TOP 20 ENE MKC 15 WNW SLO 20 NNE EVV OWB 35 SSW OWB 35 SSW PAH 25 E FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E BGS 10 SSW 4CR 50 WSW GUP 40 SSE PGA 25 NNE PGA 20 SSW 4HV CNY MTJ 35 E DHT 15 S LTS 35 NW MWL 45 WSW MWL 25 SSE ABI 30 E BGS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS NEB. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE OZARKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS ERN KS CURRENTLY NEAR 500 J/KG AND THESE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 J/KG BY 00Z. STORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY NEAR MKC AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW TO ESE FROM NE KS TO CNTRL MO. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE DEVELOPING SWWD INTO NE OK AND MOVING SEWD INTO SRN MO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 20 TO 25 KT AT 500 MB...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP THE STORMS ORGANIZE BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE 22Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME. ...NE NM/WEST TX... A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX WHICH WILL LIKELY AID STORM INITIATION ON THE CAPROCK IN ERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM SJT EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR LBB WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOCATED WNW OF LBB. INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THIS AREA WHERE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT NEAR CLOVIS NM. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 55 KT. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING IF INSTABILITY CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. THE 19Z MODIFIED SOUNDING AT SJT IN NSHARP SHOWS SBCAPE VALUE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSUMING THIS ENVIRONMENT ADVECTS NWD BY THIS EVENING INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD...THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SOUTH FL... THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN GULF OF MEX AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE SRN FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SRN FL LATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 23:17:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 18:17:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503040041.j240fwvq021825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040039 SWODY1 SPC AC 040037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 15 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FYV 20 NW MKO 30 SE PNC 10 SE ICT 30 NW EMP 20 W FLV 45 S IRK 30 S DEC 25 SSW HUF 30 NE OWB 25 NNE HOP 45 ENE DYR 20 ESE FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BGS ROW 15 NNE ONM 40 WSW ABQ 30 SW 4SL 25 NNW 4SL 35 SW ALS 35 ESE ALS 35 SSW EHA 40 NNE CSM 35 E FSI 20 NE MWL BWD 25 SE BGS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...W AND NW TX THROUGH SW OK... THE STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH W AND NW TX TONIGHT. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE FROM ERN NM INTO THE NRN PARTS OF W TX. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS PROMOTED A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EAST AND INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NW TX. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED SEVERE EVENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MO... ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR IS SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALSO...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT INTENSITIES SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..DIAL.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 04:13:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 23:13:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503040537.j245beEc028483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040535 SWODY1 SPC AC 040533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SFO 35 NW SAC 55 NNE SAC 10 NE TVL 30 NNE BIH 35 S DRA 35 SE IGM 65 WSW SOW 30 NE SAD 35 SE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SEP 15 WNW SPS 25 S ICT 15 SW JEF 15 N SLO 30 WSW BMG 20 SE LUK JKL 25 ESE TYS 25 N CHA 50 ENE ACT 20 NNE SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MRF 45 NE P07 45 W JCT 45 NNW HDO 25 SSE HDO 50 SSE LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THIS FEATURE. IN THE WRN STATES THE SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN SPLIT FROM THE NRN BRANCH AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND CUTS OFF OVER CA. ...ERN OK THROUGH SRN MO...NRN AR...KY AND TN... THE VORT MAX NOW OVER MO WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SERN U.S. TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE SRN OH AND TN VALLEYS. VORT MAX OVER ERN NM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM KS EWD THROUGH MO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD...AND BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXTEND FROM PARTS OF KY WWD THROUGH SRN MO AND INTO NERN OK. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS MAY ALSO PERSIST OVER PARTS OF TN...AR AND KY. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD OVER THE MODEST MOIST AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING FROM PARTS OF KY WWD THROUGH OK. VEERED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE SUGGEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE LIMITED. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A STRONGER NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...OFFSET FROM PEAK HEATING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 11:36:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 06:36:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503041301.j24D1VK5014731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041259 SWODY1 SPC AC 041257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE FSM 25 E TUL 30 NNW JLN 20 SSE VIH 25 WSW MVN 30 WSW BMG 25 SSW UNI 10 WNW BKW 30 WSW AVL 35 WSW CHA 25 ENE PBF 45 SE FSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MRY 20 S SAC 55 ESE TVL 55 NNE DRA 25 W GCN 40 SSE SOW 35 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MRF 35 NE FST 20 NNE BWD 20 WSW MWL 25 NNW SPS 40 NW ADM 30 N PRX 15 SE GGG 55 ENE CLL 40 NE COT 50 SSE LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN ACROSS CONUS TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SRN STREAM FROM SRN CA EWD TO THE GULF STATES...AND A NRN STREAM FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. WITHIN THIS BROADER SCALE FLOW REGIME...SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL HELP FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM THREATS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE FIRST THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA WILL BE TODAY FROM NE AR TO TN/KY IN ADVANCE OF A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING SEWD FROM MO/IL. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE ACROSS TN/KY. LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM SRN MO/NRN AR NEWD INTO KY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH /NOW OVER ERN ND AND NW MN/ AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE N. A CONTINUED FEED OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W/WNW...RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES PROFILES...AND MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A SECOND THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS N/NE TX TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM NW TX. A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS N CENTRAL TX...AND THIS CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ESEWD AND AWAY FROM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION TO THE W...THUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER SW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM THE RIO GRANDE NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND A SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THIS AREA FROM BAJA. LASTLY...A SRN STREAM TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND OVER SRN CA. COOLING AND MOISTENING OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD SUPPORT THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND AN ATTENDANT THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA TODAY. ISOLATED WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT AS FAR E AS AZ. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 15:08:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 10:08:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503041633.j24GXX94026522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041631 SWODY1 SPC AC 041629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE LBB 40 NE ABI 25 W SEP 10 S BWD 15 ESE SJT 65 SSE MAF 30 S INK 30 NW INK 35 NE HOB 70 ESE LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DAL 15 WSW DUA 25 WNW PRX 35 W TXK 25 SSE GGG 40 SW TYR 25 SSE DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 20 WSW FAT 25 ENE BIH 30 SSW DRA 20 SE LAS 35 NE IGM 40 N PRC 25 SSE FLG 45 W SOW 50 NNW SAD 25 NW SAD 60 N TUS 40 SSE PHX 80 S GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HSS 40 S TYS 55 SSE BNA 35 E MKL 45 WSW ARG 25 ESE HRO 20 ESE UMN 25 NNE SGF 25 SE VIH 30 NNW EVV 25 ESE LUK 20 N HTS 10 N 5I3 15 N HSS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEADING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE IMPULSE NOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AMPLIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY AID IN DEVELOPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NERN EXTENT OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS AOA 45F/ OVER SERN MO AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE REGION MAY BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 750-1200 J/KG NEAR 21Z...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR GIVEN NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 40-50 KT. THUS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF SEVERE WIND/HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER DARK...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...SRN CA COAST... STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED -22C TO -24C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS SRN CA TODAY. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK WITHIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...LOW LEVELS MAY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS...ALONG WITH A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE. ...TX... LEADING DISTURBANCE SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN TX WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. HOWEVER...SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO GREATER STABILITY LATER THIS MORNING AND RESULTANT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR OVER SWRN/W-CENTRAL TX TO WARRANT INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 18:39:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 13:39:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503042003.j24K3bO8011374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042001 SWODY1 SPC AC 041959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ABI 30 N BWD 35 ESE BWD 45 SSE BWD 25 NW JCT 65 NE P07 FST 10 SSW INK 35 ESE HOB 55 WNW ABI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 25 W FAT 35 SE BIH 20 W LAS 55 ENE IGM 25 SSE FLG 45 WSW SOW 65 SW SOW 50 NNW TUS 80 SSE GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MKL 50 S UNO 10 N HRO 20 S SGF 35 NE SGF 35 E VIH 15 SSW LUK 30 NW HTS 10 NNE 5I3 15 N HSS 30 SSE TYS 55 SSE BNA 40 ESE MKL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY... STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SLIDE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ORIENTED WEST TO EAST FROM WRN TN TO VA. A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN SERN MO WHERE A CU FIELD IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. STORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 02Z IN FAR SRN IL SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 800 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT. ANY THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...CA/SW DESERT... AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD THIS EVENING. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SRN CA. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...COLD AIR ALOFT AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WATERSPOUT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...WEST TX... A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SRN CA UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO PUNCH EWD ACROSS MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE NOSE OF THE JET WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION. ..BROYLES.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 23:15:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 18:15:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503050040.j250eC2x003404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050038 SWODY1 SPC AC 050036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 30 W FST 20 SE CNM 10 NW HOB 25 SE BGS 25 S BWD 40 W AUS 15 W SAT 20 NNW COT 55 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE MRY 30 SW FAT 45 SSW BIH 40 WSW DRA 25 E LAS 35 SSW GCN 35 N SOW 40 NNE SAD 40 SSW SAD 55 SSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MEM 45 NW LIT 10 WNW HRO 25 ENE SGF MDH 25 NE SDF 30 NNE CRW 10 W BLF 20 NE HSS 45 SW TYS 40 N MSL 35 WNW MEM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG VORT MAX MOVING ONSHORE AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN CA WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND LAND SPOUTS NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY TOWARD MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEY AREAS... SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN ARK THROUGH CNTRL KY ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG A WARM ADVECTION/WLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A ZONE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 300 J/KG FROM NRN AR EWD THROUGH PARTS OF KY AND TN. THE ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...AND A STORM OR TWO COULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG VORT MAX WILL DROP SSEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A PORTION OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SWD. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTERCEPT THE INSTABILITY AXIS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. BY THAT TIME...ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..DIAL.. 03/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 5 04:04:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 23:04:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503050529.j255T18G018168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050526 SWODY1 SPC AC 050525 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 50 SE MCN 15 SW GAD 30 ESE BNA 50 SE LUK 20 SE CRW 45 ESE LYH 40 SSE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW LAX 30 WNW EDW 35 WSW DRA 45 S BCE 25 E FMN 25 WSW CDS SEP 20 ESE TPL 60 NNE VCT 30 SSW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. IN THE W...SPLIT FLOW REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SEWD INTO THE BAJA AND SRN AZ AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NM AND TX. ...CAROLINAS... THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD MOVING IMPULSE MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL. DRY...MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEATING ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...SWRN STATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW INTO THE DESERTS OF SRN AZ AND SERN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING PEAKS WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. FARTHER E ACROSS NM AND INTO SW TX...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY SATURDAY IN VICINITY OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSES LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. S OF THE INITIAL BANDS OF CONVECTION...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN NEW MEXICO INTO SWRN TX. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 03/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 6 18:26:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 13:26:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503061950.j26Joj1e020007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061949 SWODY1 SPC AC 061948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 40 W TRM 15 NE RAL 15 WSW DAG 40 NNW IGM 55 SSE PGA 4SL 40 NE CVS 45 N ABI 40 ENE AUS 35 NNE VCT 50 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 S CRP 50 NNE MFE 65 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE FYV 35 WSW FYV 30 E BVO 30 E EMP 50 WNW LWD 10 W ALO 25 ENE LNR 45 NE MKG 15 S MBS 25 NNE ARB 40 S MIE 25 NE PAH 60 WSW ARG 35 SE FYV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER OH VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY... UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG IT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD QUICKLY SEWD INTO NRN MO AND IL OVERNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS WHERE 40-50 F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT NEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING ACROSS NRN MO AND WRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN MO AT 06Z SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONSIDERING THE STRONG ASCENT AND FAST CELL MOTION...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN KS CAN ADVECT NEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. ...SRN AZ/SRN NM/WEST TX... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SRN NM AND SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER-LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO MOVES EWD THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS FAR WEST TX AS WELL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -22C. THIS IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT OVER SRN NM WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL SUPERCELL THREAT WITH THE STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK ENEWD ACROSS SRN NM. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A DECREASE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF. ..BROYLES.. 03/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 6 23:50:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 18:50:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503070115.j271FLVr017814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070112 SWODY1 SPC AC 070110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SAN 45 NNE SAN 25 SE RAL 10 SSE RAL 15 W DAG 50 NNE IGM 60 SE PGA 4SL 45 NE CVS 35 SE PVW 35 SSE LTS 25 W OKC 30 W END 30 NW P28 35 SSW BIE 30 ENE SUX 20 NE SPW 45 N MSN 45 SE MBL 15 SSE MBS 25 SSE FNT 20 NW DAY 45 ENE PAH 30 SSW DYR 30 ENE LIT 15 WSW TXK 50 ESE ACT 50 SW CLL 30 NNE VCT 50 SSE VCT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN NM INTO SWRN TX... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN NM INTO CHIHUAHUA WITH STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TX. SURFACE ANALYSIS/00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SRN TX NWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO OK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM/CHIHUAHUA TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN/SWRN TX TONIGHT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SMALL...SHOULD BE OVER SWRN TX FROM AROUND SJT TO DRT AREA AS THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...DESPITE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS REGION. ...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN IA AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED NOW OVER SRN NEB/ NRN KS SPREADS SEWD. SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN WAA ALONG THE LLJ AND ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WITH THE TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...LOWER CO VALLEY/AZ/WRN NM... OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND EWD TO SWRN NM AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 03/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 05:20:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 00:20:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503070644.j276ilYG015005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070630 SWODY1 SPC AC 070628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JAX 20 W CTY ...CONT... 10 SE PSX 45 SW CLL 45 SSE DAL 35 SW HOT 40 NNE LIT 20 SW CGI 35 E PAH 60 N CSV 25 W TRI 25 ENE GSO 30 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 40 W FST 50 SSE MAF 30 WSW ABI 40 E SPS 45 SW JLN 30 ENE COU 25 N PIA 35 WSW SBN 30 WSW FDY 25 ENE PKB 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... 10 NNW DAB 50 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/SERN STATES... ...ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/SE COAST... STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES PER WV IMAGERY...WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO ENEWD TO SRN GULF COAST STATES AND FL. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...PREDOMINATELY WSWLY...WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH. 850 MB WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 35-50 KT THROUGH 00Z...AND THEN INCREASE TO 50+ KT ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS. SIMILARLY AT 500 MB...WSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 50-65 KT TO NEAR 100 KT OVER THE NERN GULF TO SERN STATES BY 08/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EWD FROM MI TO NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THROUGH THE DAY/OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES QUICKLY TO THE ERN SEABOARD TO NRN GULF BY 12Z TUESDAY. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES TODAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM IS PROVIDING FORCING ATTM OVER NRN COAHUILA FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TX COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN EWD TO THE NERN GULF COAST BY 21-00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST FROM 12Z THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NERN GULF COAST STATES BY 00Z. CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INHIBIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/ETAKF DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THUS REDUCING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST...SINCE IT AGREES BETTER WITH THE GFS INSTABILITY FORECAST. IF STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN TX TO MS/AL THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED BY THE NAM...THEN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG...DEEP WSWLY WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG FROM ERN TX TO SRN MS BY THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN LA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD TO SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE TOWARD 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN OK TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY MID MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL DEVELOP FROM ERN TX TO LOWER TN VALLEY BY 21Z. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY GULF COAST STATES THIS EVENING TO THE CAROLINAS/SERN STATES TONIGHT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 03/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 11:30:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 06:30:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503081255.j28CtDIn015535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081252 SWODY1 SPC AC 081250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 35 WNW CAE 20 WNW CLT 15 W GSO 30 NNE RWI 35 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DRT 50 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OKC 35 S DUA 40 NE ACT 45 W TPL 35 SSE SJT 35 N MAF 30 S TCC 20 NW RTN 35 SSW PUB 25 WSW LIC 50 SE AKO 55 N GCK 40 W P28 25 ENE OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CTY 30 WNW JAX 35 W SAV 45 W AGS 25 WNW AND 30 E HSS 10 SSE SSU 45 NNE CHO 25 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN SC/NC.... ...CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE MORNING... AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING EWD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNSTREAM ASCENT NOW OVERSPREADING SC AND NC. SOME CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS CENTRAL SC/NC...THOUGH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THIS POINT. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PIEDMONT SWWD INTO E CENTRAL GA...ALONG AN AXIS OF MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-250 J/KG. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL REACH THE COASTS OF GA/SC BY ABOUT 15Z AND THE NC COAST BY ABOUT 17Z...BRINGING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION...GIVEN THE OBSERVED 50 KT FLOW WITHIN 1 KM OF THE GROUND. ...FL PENINSULA... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED SWD INTO CENTRAL FL. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVERNIGHT BY RELATIVELY DRY TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE PENINSULA...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SWLY /OFF THE ERN GULF/. STILL...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF FL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL END WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY MIDDAY...AND THE SE FL COAST BY THIS EVENING. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS TOO LIMITED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA TODAY. ...PLAINS AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT THIS MORNING WILL DIG SSEWD TO OK/TX BY TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL TEND TO OFFSET THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND SUPPORT A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO NW TX AND WRN OK BY EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/BRIGHT.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 15:04:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 10:04:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503081629.j28GTEFm019216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081626 SWODY1 SPC AC 081624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ 50 W ECG 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 10 SE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DRT 15 SE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SJT 35 N MAF 20 WSW RTN 55 E GUC 15 S FCL 25 SW SNY 50 ESE GLD 25 NNW ADM 40 N DAL 35 N CLL 25 W AUS 45 S SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ILM 25 WSW OAJ 30 NE RWI 40 W ORF 20 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA... ...ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA... FAST-MOVING LINE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA LATE THIS MORNING. EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON A 270/48 MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE WILL CLEAR THE OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /AOA 50KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE/ HAVE MAINTAINED THE LINEAR STRUCTURE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED AND THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THE LINE MOVES OFF THE COAST...STRONG COLD ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL ENSUE AND THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ...FL PENINSULA... WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN FL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE FROM CURRENT VALUES. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE UVV WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE RAPIDLY NEWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO LIMITED/MARGINAL TO INCLUDE IN A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. ..RACY/GUYER.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 18:19:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 13:19:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503081943.j28JhSeq009953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081941 SWODY1 SPC AC 081940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 20 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE MRF 35 SW FST 30 SSE HOB 50 WSW CVS 45 SSW ALS 40 ESE GUC 30 NW COS 20 ENE LIC 55 SE GLD 40 SW END 40 N DAL 20 E ACT 25 S AUS 30 N NIR 15 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER CO...DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO WHERE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE MAY ENHANCE SWD DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH DEEPEST CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. FARTHER SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO SOUTH TX LATER IN THE PERIOD. EVEN SO THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK/ISOLATED. ...SOUTH FL... CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SWD MOVEMENT. IT APPEARS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONE THEY LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ..DARROW.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 23:27:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 18:27:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503090051.j290pqRL021259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090049 SWODY1 SPC AC 090047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE MRF 35 NW MRF GDP 40 W ROW 30 E 4CR 40 ESE CVS 35 NW CDS 25 ESE CSM 30 NE ADM 15 NE PRX 60 SW TYR 15 W CLL 10 NW VCT 30 ENE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS TO S TX... FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WRN KS TO NM WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL KS AT 00Z WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH AND SE AND EXTEND SWWD FROM ERN TX TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NRN PORTIONS OF COAHUILA AND CHIHUAHUA BY 12Z WED. SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING TO 30-40 KT FROM DRT TO NRN TX WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WAA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL TX...AND POTENTIALLY SRN OK. FARTHER S...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER COAHUILA AND WITHIN THE SRN STREAM FLOW ALOFT...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN TX TO THE WRN GULF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTION. ..PETERS.. 03/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 00:38:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Mar 2005 19:38:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503100038.j2A0cUsg010843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100036 SWODY1 SPC AC 100035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST WED MAR 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... DESPITE LOW DEWPOINTS AND WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG INSOLATION ...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT/500 MB TEMPERATURES -23 TO -26C/ WAS SUFFICIENT FOR A BAND OF SHALLOW BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...LIGHTNING THREAT SHOULD END PRIOR TO 02Z. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...AS A HIGH LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN SERN GULF. HOWEVER...EVENING SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA SHOW A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ..IMY.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 13:01:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 08:01:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503101300.j2AD0um9018921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101258 SWODY1 SPC AC 101257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MDH 40 ESE VIH 40 WSW JEF 35 NNW SZL 10 NW P35 35 NE LWD 25 W MLI 35 NNE PIA 15 E BMI 15 N MTO 35 ENE SLO 20 N MDH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MO/IL AREA... HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES. WITHIN THE BROADER ERN TROUGH...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SSEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING REVEALED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER MN. AS THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SSEWD...CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING SNOWS WITH WAA SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 50 F ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MO...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 30S BASED ON UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 500 MB MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SBCAPE NEAR 100 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IL...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 16:17:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 11:17:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503101617.j2AGH83H007357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101613 SWODY1 SPC AC 101611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W EVV 55 SSW BLV 10 W JEF 35 NNE SZL 10 NW P35 35 NE LWD 35 WSW MLI 25 NE PIA DNV 15 ESE HUF 40 NNE EVV 30 W EVV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH THIS PERIOD. THOUGH GENERALLY DRY / STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS...SHOWERS / A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. ...SERN IA / E CENTRAL AND NERN MO / IL... COLD /-28 TO -30C/ MID-LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY YIELD MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 19:48:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 14:48:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503101948.j2AJmdJL024139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101947 SWODY1 SPC AC 101945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MDH 35 ENE VIH 30 NNW COU 40 NW UIN 35 NW SPI 15 ENE MTO 45 N EVV 15 N MDH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CORN BELT AND MID MS VLY TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL AND NERN MO WHERE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL EXIST. ..RACY.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 00:56:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 19:56:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503110056.j2B0u4e0016826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110053 SWODY1 SPC AC 110051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD THROUGH KS/MO WILL DIVE SSEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE FORCING...CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING. GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS....GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STABLE AIR MASS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ..IMY.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 13:11:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 08:11:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503111311.j2BDBqx9008430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111309 SWODY1 SPC AC 111307 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 35 SSE CLT GSO 15 WNW RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GON 15 WNW PVD 15 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 NW AGS AVL 30 W DCA 20 ENE BWI 20 NE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EVV 15 W UIN 25 SSE OTM 10 SE CID 35 SSE DBQ 40 SW RFD 10 NE IND 35 SSE IND 30 NE OWB 40 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT. LEAD DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MO/NW AR/ERN OK SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE TN VLY TODAY... AND REACH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY 00Z SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ...EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM JET MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS MANITOBA WILL BE OVER ERN IA/WRN IL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT CROSSES THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH THE MANITOBA SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER NRN MN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY AS IT ACCELERATES SSE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY. ...CAROLINAS/VA... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. COOL MEAN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. BUT UNUSUALLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ON THE ORDER OF 8 DEGREES PER KM/ AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS /AROUND 30 DEGREES/ WILL BE PRESENT OVER REGION...AND FAST /80 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT MID LEVELS. THUS... SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT COULD AUGMENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND YIELD DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS...IF STORMS OR SHOWERS DO INDEED FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT WHILE MO/AR IMPULSE IS FAIRLY STRONG...VORT SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CHANNELED. THIS AGREES WITH LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICT RATHER MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SYSTEM DRIVES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA LATER TODAY. WHILE THE MEAN WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ...UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FOSTER GUST FRONT LONGEVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...MID MS VLY... ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SSE-MOVING JET STREAK LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY YIELD SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SURFACE. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 16:09:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 11:09:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503111609.j2BG9H5n005819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111606 SWODY1 SPC AC 111604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 20 WSW GSB 45 NNW RWI 20 W RIC 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MTO 20 W BMI DBQ 35 WNW LNR 25 ESE VOK 35 ENE MSN 20 NW CGX 35 NE LAF 30 NW LUK 45 E LEX 25 WSW JKL 45 NE OWB 45 SSE MTO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CHS 20 SE AGS 25 N SPA 25 S SSU 35 WNW DCA 20 NW DOV 30 S ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA/ERN NC... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... VERY STRONG FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH AS S/WV IMPULSE CURRENTLY TN VALLEY MOVES TO OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW WRN PA WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD VICINITY APPALACHIANS. STEEP...COLD LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES AS S/WV TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. MEAGER SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABLE E OF APPALACHIANS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 40F. HOWEVER GIVEN THE HEATING/MIXING E OF MOUNTAINS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODELS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME WEAK CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...100-300 J/KG. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E OF VA/NC HIGHER TERRAIN DURING AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHILE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING AS S/WV TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE E. ..HALES.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 19:28:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 14:28:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503111928.j2BJSSfs022990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111925 SWODY1 SPC AC 111924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ECG 30 ENE RWI 45 NNW RWI 20 W RIC 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CHS 20 SE AGS 25 N SPA 25 S SSU 35 WNW DCA 20 NW DOV 30 S ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS SERN VA AND MUCH OF THE ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...DEEPENING CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THAT REGION ALONG/EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN AXIS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE HAS NOW GIVEN WAY TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO MOVE TOWARD COASTAL VA/NC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY YET PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE SHEAR WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..DARROW.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 12 00:56:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 19:56:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503120056.j2C0uQaF024082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120053 SWODY1 SPC AC 120052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 35 ESE FAY 20 ESE RWI 45 W ECG 15 NE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THOUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WAS DROPPING SEWD THROUGH WI. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN ERN PA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. A SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING WWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SRN MN AND THEN NWWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ...ERN NC/SERN VA... WEAK CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAS THUS FAR INHIBITED STRONG UPDRAFTS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE WIND THREAT APPEARS OVER. ...WI/NRN IL... A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECENTLY NOTED ACROSS WRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. QUITE A DIFFERENCE WAS NOTED WITH THE LAPSE RATES ON THE MSP AND GRB EVENING SOUNDINGS...WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER AT GRB. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AT GRB...NO CAPE WAS INDICATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR ZERO AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS SEWD INTO IL...SO THUNDER AREA IS NOT FORECAST. ..IMY.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvQeK005675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120539 SWODY1 SPC AC 120537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORTEX OVER ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WWD DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN LONGWAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY SWWD FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL AID A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WWD INTO NERN MT...TO SURGE RAPIDLY SEWD AND EXTEND SUNDAY MORNING FROM ERN NM/NRN TX ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO NC. ...SRN TX... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF ON SATURDAY...SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING... THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHALLOW. ABOVE THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER...SWLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ...SRN AZ... WEAK SLY WINDS ALOFT TRANSPORTED MOISTURE BETWEEN 500-700 MB NWD FROM MEXICO INTO EXTREME SRN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOK SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER... AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS AZ AND SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvRr1005688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121614 SWODY1 SPC AC 121612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 W TUS 40 NNE TUS 30 W SAD 20 ENE SAD 40 WNW SVC 25 SSW SVC 70 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT 20 NNW COD 50 WSW COD 40 NNW JAC 20 SE DLN 55 W BTM MSO 25 SE FCA 35 SW CTB 25 S 3HT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A POTENT NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND DRY DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND INTO COASTAL TX / LA..BUT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED. ...SERN AZ... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG HEATING AND CYCLONIC SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN JET WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN AZ / POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SWRN NM. MUCAPE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITHIN WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT THUS SEVERE UNLIKELY. ...WRN MT... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SWD WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. NWLY SFC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvS4b005697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121943 SWODY1 SPC AC 121941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 W TUS 40 NNE TUS 30 W SAD 20 ENE SAD 40 WNW SVC 25 SSW SVC 70 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT 20 NNW COD 50 WSW COD 40 NNW JAC 20 SE DLN 55 W BTM MSO 25 SE FCA 35 SW CTB 25 S 3HT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM... GPS PW AND GOES SATL PW ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THERE HAS BEEN A MINOR INCREASE IN MSTR ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN AZ THE PAST 24-HRS WITH 10-15 MM VALUES IN THE LWR DESERTS. DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO SERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 700-800 J/KG GIVEN A 84/36 SURFACE PARCEL. BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS SRN AZ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLD TSTMS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER...BUT A TSTM MIGHT DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATALINAS/RINCONS IN SERN AZ AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CEDAR MTNS IN SWRN NM. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSOLVE AFTER SUNSET/LOSS OF HEATING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ...WRN MT... ISOLD TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS OF SWRN MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF A 70 KT H5 JET DIGGING SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR SEWD AS THE TETONS OF NWRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvT8S005713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121256 SWODY1 SPC AC 121254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POLAR VORTEX OVER ONTARIO SHOULD RETROGRADE SLOWLY W THIS PERIOD AS GREENLAND BLOCK NOSES S INTO ERN CANADA AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST AMPLIFIES S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FARTHER W...AMPLIFICATION OF GULF OF AK RIDGE WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING S ACROSS ALBERTA TO CONTINUE S/SE INTO THE NWRN STATES. DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE ZONE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS WILL FOSTER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS/COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MUCH OF THE N CNTRL AND NWRN U.S. ...NEW ENG... WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE NOW DEVELOPING OVER WRN/SRN NEW ENG EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE REFORMING NEWD AWAY FROM REGION THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE ASCENT AND INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER TO YIELD AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON ERN/SIDE OF DEFORMATION ACROSS ERN MA...IN AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN THIS MORNING'S CHH RAOB. CHARGE SEPARATION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THIS REGION...MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE N ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLATED AT BEST. ..CORFIDI.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:34:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:34:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503132034.j2DKY4v0021437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132007 SWODY1 SPC AC 132006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW POE 25 WNW SHV 25 W ELD 50 N MLU 35 E TUP 35 NW AND 35 S SPA 45 ESE AHN 15 NE AUO 50 ESE MEI 25 NNW MCB 35 NW POE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FHU 30 SSE PRC 10 NNE IGM 45 WNW GCN 80 SSW 4BL 25 ENE GUP 30 N TCS 10 S ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CHS 45 SSE AGS 40 NNE DHN 35 WNW GPT 25 ENE LCH 20 N BPT 40 W LFK 20 S TYR 30 ENE TXK 25 E PBF 40 W LOZ 15 SSE BLF 25 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...DEEP SOUTH... 19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1002 MB LOW VCNTY KSHV. PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED EAST ALONG THE LA/AR BORDER INTO NRN MS AND NWRN AL AND SWWD THROUGH E TX. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO SRN AR AND NCNTRL TX AND SHOULD OVERTAKE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT AND MOISTEN ALONG/S OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS 57-64F. GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER H5 TEMPERATURES...CINH IS WEAKER ACROSS MS/AL AND A LITTLE STRONGER IN E TX/WRN LA. A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF HEATING SHOULD ERASE/WEAKEN THIS CAP BY 22Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROTATING EWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND WILL BE MOVING EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW...EWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FIRST INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WHERE WEAKER CINH EXISTS...NAMELY NRN MS EWD INTO AL. ACTIVITY WILL THEN DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AS CAP IS BREACHED ACROSS NRN LA BY 21-22Z. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS. AS CELLS MATURE...DAMAGING WINDS/BOW ECHOES WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MS/AL AS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD EXIST. ..RACY.. 03/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 00:52:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 19:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503140052.j2E0qmML006770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140050 SWODY1 SPC AC 140048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MCB 30 W ESF 45 SE SHV 45 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 35 NNE CBM 35 WNW AND 15 E AND 30 SE AND 45 ESE AHN 15 WSW AUO 20 NNW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MER 55 NNE FAT 55 NW BIH 40 SSE TVL 40 SSW TVL 40 ENE SCK 30 NNE MER 45 ENE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ALM 60 NNW SVC 50 W SOW 40 ESE EED 15 ENE EED 30 NNE EED 15 NNW IGM 75 WNW GUP 25 WNW SAF 45 SSE LVS 60 N ROW 15 WSW ROW 25 ENE ALM 15 WNW ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE LCH 40 SW POE 45 NW POE 20 E SHV 25 SW ELD 40 W MSL 15 NNW TYS 45 ENE DAN 10 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PNS 40 WNW ABY 35 SSW AGS 35 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...MS...AL...NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC... ...NRN LA/CNTRL MS/NCNTRL AL... NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER NE LA WHERE 850 TO 500 LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND AL WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MS AND CNTRL AL. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NRN LA AND WRN MS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED. ...NRN GA/WRN SC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 50 F RANGE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE 50S F AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AN MCS MOVING EWD OUT OF AL WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF NCNTRL AZ AND NM. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE MTNS DUE TO SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF THIS EVENING...THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 00:55:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 19:55:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503140055.j2E0tTSp008602@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140053 SWODY1 SPC AC 140051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MCB 30 W ESF 45 SE SHV 45 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 35 NNE CBM 35 WNW AND 15 E AND 30 SE AND 45 ESE AHN 15 WSW AUO 20 NNW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ALM 60 NNW SVC 50 W SOW 40 ESE EED 15 ENE EED 30 NNE EED 15 NNW IGM 75 WNW GUP 25 WNW SAF 45 SSE LVS 60 N ROW 15 WSW ROW 25 ENE ALM 15 WNW ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MER 55 NNE FAT 55 NW BIH 40 SSE TVL 40 SSW TVL 40 ENE SCK 30 NNE MER 45 ENE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CRE 40 SSW AGS 35 WNW ABY 25 ESE PNS ...CONT... 40 SE LCH 40 SW POE 45 NW POE 20 E SHV 25 SW ELD 40 W MSL 15 NNW TYS 45 ENE DAN 10 ENE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...MS...AL...NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC... ...NRN LA/CNTRL MS/NCNTRL AL... NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER NE LA WHERE 850 TO 500 LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND AL WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MS AND CNTRL AL. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NRN LA AND WRN MS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED. ...NRN GA/WRN SC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 50 F RANGE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE 50S F AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AN MCS MOVING EWD OUT OF AL WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF NCNTRL AZ AND NM. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE MTNS DUE TO SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF THIS EVENING...THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 01:55:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 20:55:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503140155.j2E1t6CL005588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140152 SWODY1 SPC AC 140151 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MCB 30 W ESF 45 SE SHV 45 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 35 NNE CBM 35 WNW AND 15 E AND 30 SE AND 45 ESE AHN 15 WSW AUO 20 NNW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ALM 60 NNW SVC 50 W SOW 40 ESE EED 15 ENE EED 30 NNE EED 15 NNW IGM 75 WNW GUP 25 WNW SAF 45 SSE LVS 60 N ROW 15 WSW ROW 25 ENE ALM 15 WNW ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CRE 40 SSW AGS 35 WNW ABY 25 ESE PNS ...CONT... 40 SE LCH 40 SW POE 45 NW POE 20 E SHV 25 SW ELD 40 W MSL 15 NNW TYS 45 ENE DAN 10 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MER 30 NNE MER 45 ENE SCK 45 SSW TVL 35 S TVL 65 NW BIH 60 WNW BIH 40 ENE MER. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...MS...NRN AL AND FAR WRN SC... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE IN CA ...NRN LA/CNTRL MS/NCNTRL AL... NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER NE LA WHERE 850 TO 500 LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND AL WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MS AND CNTRL AL. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NRN LA AND WRN MS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED. ...NRN GA/WRN SC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 50 F RANGE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE 50S F AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AN MCS MOVING EWD OUT OF AL WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF NCNTRL AZ AND NM. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE MTNS DUE TO SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF THIS EVENING...THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 05:40:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 00:40:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503140540.j2E5eaNW015736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140539 SWODY1 SPC AC 140537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 10 E GNV 10 NNW CTY 25 ESE TLH 20 NNE TLH 25 S ABY 35 NNE MGR 20 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE GPT 45 SW LUL 35 WSW LUL 20 E CBM 40 WNW RMG 15 NE CLT 45 SW HSE ...CONT... 10 E MLB 25 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PSX 50 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 55 NW GBN 45 SE IGM 30 SW GCN 70 N INW 40 ESE ABQ 45 W LBB 20 SSW ABI 55 NNE CLL 25 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL... ...AL/GA/FL... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL MS AND NRN AL WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN SRN GA WITH STORMS SPREADING ESEWD INTO NRN FL BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z TUE ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA SHOW ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MATURE ESPECIALLY IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE BY MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...AZ/NM... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH STRONG ASCENT MOVING SWD ACROSS AZ AND NM DURING THE DAY. AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION DECREASING BY MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...SCNTRL/SE TX... STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND TX TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SRN TX SPREADING A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS SHOULD TURN ELY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ABOVE THE COOLER AIR INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN RESPONSE...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND SPREAD NWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND SE TX LATE TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 12:53:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 07:53:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503141253.j2ECrP7F022397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141251 SWODY1 SPC AC 141249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 10 E GNV 10 NNW CTY 20 ESE TLH 20 NNW TLH 30 SW ABY 35 NNE MGR 20 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 20 W SAT 30 SE BWD 40 NNE ACT 25 WNW SHV 25 SSW MLU 40 W HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE VRB 20 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 25 WSW PNS 55 NE MOB 35 E 0A8 15 SSW AHN 25 SW CAE 15 E CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW TUS 70 SW PRC 40 ENE IGM 60 N INW 20 SSE ABQ 45 E 4CR 30 N MAF 20 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S GA AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... CONTINUED RETROGRESSION OF FEATURES AT HIGH LATITUDES WILL MAINTAIN RECENT PATTERN OF INCREASED TROUGHING OVER MOST OF WRN CANADA AND THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND SLIGHTLY ALONG THE E CST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED S/SE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND MUCH OF GA TODAY BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS S CNTRL FL EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK WAVE NOW NEAR AGS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE SC CST LATER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS IT CROSS S GA/NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FORCING /PER SATELLITE OR MODEL GUIDANCE/. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... BAND OF MODERATE /50-60 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE ERN GULF CST REGION TODAY AS MAIN NRN STREAM SPEED MAX MOVES E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. MUCH STRONGER /100+ KT/ FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AT UPPER LEVELS. THE BAND OF STRONG FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER SRN GA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER S GA AND NRN FL TODAY...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY IN NRN LA AND MS. BUT COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST HEATING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ AND RESIDUAL EML PLUME AT MID LEVELS SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WHILE SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAK SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW OVER LA THAT MIGHT ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS SLIGHT RISK REGION LATER TODAY...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT. PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL FOSTER LONGEVITY AND MID LEVEL ROTATION IN ANY CELLS THAT DO FORM...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK/SHALLOW FORCING FOR ASCENT. OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH HAIL AND HIGH WIND...MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ...AZ/WRN NM... THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN NM LATER TODAY AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED SE MOVEMENT OF GRT BASIN TROUGH DESTABILIZE REGION. DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 20 C AT 500 MB/ AND MODEST BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ...SE TX... ELEVATED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING SWRN STATES TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF CST REGION. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 16:19:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 11:19:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503141620.j2EGK0WS010095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141618 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAB 50 S GNV 15 WNW CTY 20 ESE TLH 20 NNW TLH 30 SW ABY 35 NNE MGR 20 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 55 NE MOB 35 E 0A8 15 SSW AHN 25 SW CAE 15 E CRE ...CONT... 15 SE VRB 30 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 10 NNW SAT 15 S SEP FTW 30 ESE PRX 30 SE ELD 30 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 70 SW PRC 45 NW PRC 60 NNE INW 25 ESE 4SL 20 ESE TCC 40 NNW CDS 30 E CDS 45 SSW LTS 45 NNW ABI 55 SE MAF 20 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN GA/NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...COLD S/WV TROUGH NV/UT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO SRN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM FAST WLYS SRN U.S. WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS. COLD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SC THEN WSWWD THRU CENTRAL GA TO OFFSHORE WRN FL PANHANDLE ...SRN GA/NRN FL... CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE NWRN FL COAST WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. REF MCD 289. GIVEN THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS AIR MASS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. FURTHER N ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PROVIDING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS BY MID AFTERNOON AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ENDING THREAT. ...AZ... A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT HEATING S OF MOGOLLON RIM AHEAD OF FRONT GIVEN LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 19:36:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 14:36:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503141936.j2EJax1h011783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141935 SWODY1 SPC AC 141933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 45 WSW JAX 15 SW VLD 35 SW ABY 15 WSW ABY 45 N AYS 35 WNW SAV 20 ESE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CEW 35 SSW MCN 60 ESE MCN 40 SE AGS 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... PBI 20 WSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 10 NNW SAT 15 S SEP FTW 30 ESE PRX 30 SE ELD 30 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 70 SW PRC 45 NW PRC 60 NNE INW 25 ESE 4SL 20 ESE TCC 40 NNW CDS 30 E CDS 45 SSW LTS 45 NNW ABI 55 SE MAF 20 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA/SOUTH CAROLINA.... ...SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES... COLD SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO NOSE SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS PROGGED THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT CONTINUES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THOUGH SUBSIDENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE INHIBITIVE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BOUNDARY MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PEAK HEATING. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED VICINITY OF COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE...WHERE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXISTS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES/PLAINS... COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAINLY WILL DEVELOP NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL ORIENTATION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM MAY ENHANCE LIFT ALONG STRONGER MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE /AROUND 700 MB/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS THIS REGION BY 15/06Z...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...SOUTHEAST TEXAS... SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACCELERATE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA SPUR INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU BY LATE TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE...STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS PROGGED FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. CAP ABOVE RETURNING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ACTIVITY WILL BE BASED ABOVE DEEP FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR HAIL...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 00:40:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 19:40:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503150040.j2F0elfo030399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150039 SWODY1 SPC AC 150037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BRO 15 W ALI 30 N SAT 25 SE SEP 10 ESE DAL 35 NNW GGG 25 NW ESF 35 S HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PBI 20 WSW AGR 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 WNW CTY 10 SSE VLD 25 WSW AYS 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 35 W TCS 60 S GNT 25 S GNT 25 E GNT 35 SE SAF 50 S LVS 50 ENE 4CR 25 WNW CNM 45 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FAR SE GA/FAR NRN FL... ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF GA AND NE FL WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST BEFORE THE CELLS WEAKEN DUE TO DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN FL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ...NM/FAR W TX... ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTNS OF SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ...SRN AND EAST TX... A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A SHALLOW COOL DOME WITH A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -16C. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO EAST TX BY LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 13:03:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 08:03:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503151303.j2FD3nPI001718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151301 SWODY1 SPC AC 151300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N VRB 30 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 10 N SVC ONM 40 E LBB 25 NNE DUA 10 NE LIT 10 SE MSL 35 NNW AGS 45 SSW CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH CONSISTING OF SEVERAL STREAMS OF FLOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF THE W CST. THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN AZ EXPECTED TO BE OVER NW TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FARTHER S... DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CHIHUAHUA SHOULD ACCELERATE NE AHEAD OF AZ TROUGH...AND REACH THE ARKLATEX BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT THE SURFACE FROM THE CNTRL RCKYS ACROSS MID MS AND OH VLYS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. BOUNDARY MARKING THE SRN EDGE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE HAS NOW BECOME JUST ABOUT STATIONARY FROM S OF BRO ENE TO NEAR VRB. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS REBOUND AHEAD OF THE AZ AND MEXICAN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ...SW/S CNTRL TX THIS AFTN... CURRENT 11-3.9U SATELLITE DATA DEPICT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX NWD INTO THE DAVIS MTN REGION...THE PECOS VLY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM NRN MEXICAN UPPER IMPULSE. COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...THIS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SBCAPE /300-400 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK E/ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/CONVERGENCE. THUS...A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME PERSISTENT AND/OR EVOLVE INTO SMALL BANDS/CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEFLY STRONG WIND. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF TX TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY AND PARTS OF DEEP S TX AS GLANCING INFLUENCE OF EJECTING MEXICAN TROUGH ENHANCES LIFT ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT. WHILE STOUT CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...IF A FEW STORMS DO INDEED FORM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PWS AOA 1 INCH/ BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST LATER IN THE PERIOD... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF CST REGION AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER SYSTEMS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS TX. WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE NEWD INTO PARTS OF...SE LA...SRN MS...CNTRL AND SRN AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. BACKED NATURE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...AND THAT HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. BUT 40-50 KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL FOSTER STORM ROTATION. GIVEN INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN NEAR WARM FRONT...THIS MAY POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/HIGH WIND REPORT LATER IN THE PERIOD FROM NEAR BVE TO PAM. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 16:28:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 11:28:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503151628.j2FGS4O0023601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151625 SWODY1 SPC AC 151623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LCH 55 NW ESF 50 W JAN 25 E JAN 35 ESE MEI 35 NE CEW 20 NNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ELP 45 NE ALM 25 N ROW 35 SW CDS 25 ESE LTS 40 WNW MLC 20 S DYR 30 N HSV 30 SSE AND 45 S CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBI 25 SSE FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX TROUGH WRN U.S. WITH PROGRESSIVE BROAD RIDGE ERN U.S. STRONG S/WV OVER NM SHIFTS EWD WHILE SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO WRN GULF COAST BY TONIGHT. PRONOUNCED FRONTAL ZONE HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FL WWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTREME S TX. FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NWD AS WARM FRONT TODAY AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NWRN GULF AND MOVES TO NEAR CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. S OF FRONT AIR MASS OVER GULF IS NOW QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AOA 70F. ABOVE THE STABLE COLD FRONTAL DOME FROM TX EWD ALONG GULF COAST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ARE IN PLACE. ...SRN LA EWD TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE... THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN TX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF EXPECTED ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE/APPROACH OF MEXICO S/WV TROUGH AND THE ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD FRONTAL DOME ON THE STRENGTHENING 850MB SWLY JET. ELEVATED CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER THIS ADVECTIVE REGIME ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY WHICH ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN STABLE LAYER BELOW FRONTAL INVERSION. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT NEARING CENTRAL GULF COAST THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...WRN TX... STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF NM TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OR GREATER AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 60 KT. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 19:53:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 14:53:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503151953.j2FJrcs1023291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151951 SWODY1 SPC AC 151949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT ESF HEZ MEI TOI 25 E MAI 35 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ELP HOB 40 NNE SJT BWD DAL PBF MEM 45 SSW BNA AVL 40 SSE EWN ...CONT... 15 NNE PBI 25 SSE FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST.... SURFACE FRONT IS STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA/GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST. ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION TO THE NORTH...AIR MASS IS MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF INTENSIFYING UPPER JET STREAK...ATOP AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...BUT FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF WAVE ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...INTO EASTERN GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...WHERE INVERSION IS SHALLOWER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS..RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...COULD INCREASE AS SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER IS ERASED. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY... LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER COLD SURGE MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND AREAS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION NOW APPEAR CONFINED TO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT STEERING FLOW COULD AID PROPAGATION ACROSS THE RIVER...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...INTO TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST CELLS BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF THE VALLEY. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD WILL BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH... ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOVE DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 01:01:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:01:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503160101.j2G11jDw023388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160059 SWODY1 SPC AC 160058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 40 NNE MSY 30 WSW LUL 20 SE MEI 15 SW SEM 15 E TOI 25 ENE MAI 35 E AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 35 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBI 25 SSE FMY ...CONT... ELP 35 NW MAF 45 ENE ABI 35 WSW PRX 35 WSW HOT 25 NNE MEM 20 NW MSL 15 ESE ANB 25 WNW MCN 40 NNW SAV 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH TX... ...SE LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/FL... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SE LA EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS SE LA IS FEEDING THE CONVECTION. AS THE JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS EWD...THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE BACKED ALONG THE COAST OF LA...MS AND AL DUE TO A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IS CREATING STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE AND MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE CELLS MOVE INLAND OVER A COOL DOME...THE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED. THE 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING AT EGLIN AFB SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...FAR SOUTH TX... AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN FAR SOUTH TX. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTH TX THIS EVENING SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 70 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...SW AND CNTRL TX... AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WCNTRL TX JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NM. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S F. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THEY TRACK EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMP AROUND -20C SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. ..BROYLES.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 12:48:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 07:48:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503161248.j2GCmbBf029938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161245 SWODY1 SPC AC 161244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 7R4 20 ESE LFT 35 ESE JAN 15 W TCL 15 WNW ANB 30 WSW CAE CRE ...CONT... 30 S PBI 65 W MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW AQQ 30 SW MGR 15 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 35 W ALI 35 SSW VCT 25 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT 30 ENE COD 45 NE JAC 15 NW SUN 65 E BKE 35 WSW GEG 20 WSW SEA 15 E CLM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...MULTI STREAM PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD. TWO IMPULSES IN THE SRN-MOST STREAM /THAT EXTENDING FROM NERN MEXICO NEWD ACROSS FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST/ WILL RACE NEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER IMPULSE OF MORE NRN ORIGIN TRACKS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO WRN AR. THE SERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM OFF THE S TX GULF CST ENE TO NEAR SAV. THE FRONT...IN GENERAL...WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY /NOW NEAR AQQ/ REDEVELOPS NEWD OFF THE GA/SC CST. ...XTRM S GA/FL... PORTION OF SHALLOW FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM SURFACE WAVE NEAR AQQ SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS N FL AND XTRM S GA LATER TODAY AS WAVE REDEVELOPS NEWD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST MARITIME AIR TO OVERSPREAD REGION BENEATH 65-70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/ EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN PERIODIC WAVES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD REDEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE AND GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AMPLE /50+ KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL...NEVERTHELESS...BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS WITHIN THE LARGELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER S...ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CNTRL FL. WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. LATER IN THE PERIOD A FEW STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...MAY AFFECT WRN AND SWRN FL AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED TRAILING PORTION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT REGION. WHILE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY TIME OF DAY. ...CNTRL GULF CST... AN ELEVATED STORM OR TWO POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY CLIP SERN LA LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TEMPORARILY BACKS AHEAD OF SRN END OF TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERRIDE AXIS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THIS REGION IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 12:54:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 07:54:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503161254.j2GCse7t000814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161252 SWODY1 SPC AC 161251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 30 SW MGR 15 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 7R4 20 ESE LFT 35 ESE JAN 15 W TCL 15 WNW ANB 30 WSW CAE CRE ...CONT... 30 S PBI 65 W MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 35 W ALI 35 SSW VCT 25 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT 30 ENE COD 45 NE JAC 15 NW SUN 65 E BKE 35 WSW GEG 20 WSW SEA 15 E CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL AND XTRM S GA... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...MULTI STREAM PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD. TWO IMPULSES IN THE SRN-MOST STREAM /THAT EXTENDING FROM NERN MEXICO NEWD ACROSS FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST/ WILL RACE NEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER IMPULSE OF MORE NRN ORIGIN TRACKS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO WRN AR. THE SERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM OFF THE S TX GULF CST ENE TO NEAR SAV. THE FRONT...IN GENERAL...WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY /NOW NEAR AQQ/ REDEVELOPS NEWD OFF THE GA/SC CST. ...XTRM S GA/FL... PORTION OF SHALLOW FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM SURFACE WAVE NEAR AQQ SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS N FL AND XTRM S GA LATER TODAY AS WAVE REDEVELOPS NEWD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST MARITIME AIR TO OVERSPREAD REGION BENEATH 65-70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/ EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN PERIODIC WAVES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD REDEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE AND GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AMPLE /50+ KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL...NEVERTHELESS...BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS WITHIN THE LARGELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER S...ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CNTRL FL. WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. LATER IN THE PERIOD A FEW STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...MAY AFFECT WRN AND SWRN FL AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED TRAILING PORTION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT REGION. WHILE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY TIME OF DAY. ...CNTRL GULF CST... AN ELEVATED STORM OR TWO POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY CLIP SERN LA LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TEMPORARILY BACKS AHEAD OF SRN END OF TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERRIDE AXIS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THIS REGION IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 16:16:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 11:16:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503161616.j2GGGEfl023746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161611 SWODY1 SPC AC 161609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TLH 10 S VLD 15 E SSI ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 7R4 25 N BTR 35 E JAN 15 W TCL 15 WNW ANB 20 NNE CAE 10 SSW ILM ...CONT... 30 S PBI 65 NNE EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT 30 ENE COD 15 NNW JAC 15 NNW SUN 30 SSE BKE 30 E OLM 30 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FLORIDA... ...FL... TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER SWRN U.S. IS SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD INTO PAC NW. SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL REDEVELOP EWD TO OFF SERN ATLANTIC COAST AS SHEAR VORTICITY IN THE STRONG WSWLY FLOW SPREADS EWD ACROSS SE STATES. THIS SCENARIO WILL VEER LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SWLY ACROSS FL TODAY AS FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY DRAPED ENE-WSW NRN FL SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY SWD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER FL PENINSULA SUCH THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING AS TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE N AND NW ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AROUND 6C/KM. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE IS THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WITH FAST MOVING STORMS THAT EITHER DEVELOP OVER THE PENINSULA AS CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY...OR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS NOW OVER ERN GULF THAT MOVE INLAND DURING AFTERNOON. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS STRONG AND FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY SEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ..HALES/DARROW.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 00:46:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 19:46:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503170046.j2H0kbU5002171@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170044 SWODY1 SPC AC 170042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 10 WNW FMY ...CONT... 10 WNW PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY 40 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 25 E GEG 15 W PUW 40 NW ALW 20 NNW YKM 15 NNW OLM 20 SSE UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED NEWD OFF THE FL COAST AND SO HAS MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WEAK SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF TPA IS TRACKING ENEWD AT 35 KT AND WILL MOVE OFF THE PENINSULA PRIOR TO 03Z. THE VEERED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS LOCATED NEAR AND EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER... BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. ..IMY.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 12:53:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 07:53:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503171252.j2HCqsUl009397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171249 SWODY1 SPC AC 171248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 45 WSW CAG 25 W WRL SHR 35 ENE 81V 30 ESE PHP FSD 25 SE SUX 25 W OMA 25 NW HLC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH FRIDAY...S OF STATIONARY BLOCK OVER NE CANADA. THE SRN STREAM JET ...COMPRISING SRN PART OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SWATH OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NE MEXICO. FARTHER N...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING ID SHOULD REACH CNTRL SD/NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WAVY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM OF FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL TODAY. ACTUAL FRONT IS WELL N OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE PLAINS... CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE SE TO NEAR FSD BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...CNTRL/S FL... AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER S FL S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 1250 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SMALL SCALE BOWS AND EMBEDDED CELLS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION COULD YIELD A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TIL LATE IN THE DAY. A CELL OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY... ALTHOUGH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR PRE GUST-FRONT STORMS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF. THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... IN CONTRAST TO FL...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SE ACROSS WY/NEB/SD LATER TODAY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BOTH DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN VORT MAX...AND ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. BUILDUPS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE WY/CO MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE POTENT COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS... HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY YIELD A SMALL BAND OR TWO OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN NEB. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 15:11:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 10:11:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503171511.j2HFB70h005644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171458 SWODY1 SPC AC 171456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171445Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 45 WSW CAG 25 W WRL SHR 35 ENE 81V 30 ESE PHP FSD 25 SE SUX 25 W OMA 25 NW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN... AMENDED TO ADD SLGT RISK TO SRN FL ...AMENDMENT... PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 303 AND SEVERE WEATHER WATCH 52 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH FRIDAY...S OF STATIONARY BLOCK OVER NE CANADA. THE SRN STREAM JET ...COMPRISING SRN PART OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SWATH OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NE MEXICO. FARTHER N...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING ID SHOULD REACH CNTRL SD/NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WAVY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM OF FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL TODAY. ACTUAL FRONT IS WELL N OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE PLAINS... CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE SE TO NEAR FSD BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...CNTRL/S FL... AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER S FL S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 1250 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SMALL SCALE BOWS AND EMBEDDED CELLS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION COULD YIELD A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TIL LATE IN THE DAY. A CELL OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY... ALTHOUGH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR PRE GUST-FRONT STORMS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF. THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... IN CONTRAST TO FL...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SE ACROSS WY/NEB/SD LATER TODAY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BOTH DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN VORT MAX...AND ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. BUILDUPS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE WY/CO MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE POTENT COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS... HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY YIELD A SMALL BAND OR TWO OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN NEB. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 16:05:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 11:05:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503171605.j2HG518S016044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171602 SWODY1 SPC AC 171600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 25 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CTY 40 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 35 WNW RKS 20 NNW BPI 50 W COD 30 NE COD 35 ENE 81V 35 SSW MHE 15 N OFK 20 ESE GRI 30 NNW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY / CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND / SMALLER TROUGH WITHIN MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- NOW MOVING ACROSS MT / ID / WY -- IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE SEWD INTO THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS CENTRAL / SRN FL...WITH MOIST / UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS INDICATED S OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SRN FL. OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NRN WY / SERN MT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF NRN ROCKIES UPPER FEATURE. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING -- MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ...S FL... MOIST / WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT ACROSS S FL ATTM...S OF EFFECTIVE FRONT EXTENDING W-E FROM ROUGHLY LAKE OKEECHOBEE SWD. STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN A BAND FROM LEE COUNTY ENEWD ST. LUCIE / MARTIN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL STRONG / SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE EVERGLADES / KEYS WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. STRONG WIND FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS S FL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF THE SRN FL COAST / THE KEYS LATE IN THE PERIOD...ENDING ANY LINGERING SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS / BANACOS.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 19:44:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 14:44:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503171944.j2HJiDAE019728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171941 SWODY1 SPC AC 171939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S FMY 25 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PIE 25 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 35 WNW RKS 20 NNW BPI 50 W COD 30 NE COD 35 ENE 81V 35 SSW MHE 15 N OFK 20 ESE GRI 30 NNW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN.... ...FLORIDA... SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/GENERATED BOUNDARY IS NOW SOUTH OF A PALM BEACH/FORT MYERS LINE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT NORTHWARD A BIT ALONG THE EAST COAST...BEFORE CONVECTIVE LINE OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS GENERALLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EASTWARD PROGRESSION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS JUST NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ACCELERATION OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS FAR...MID-LEVEL CAPPING HAS INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI AREA...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO PROVIDE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT. LINE HAS STRENGTHENED IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI BY THE 18/00-03Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHEARED MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS NEAR STRONGER CELLS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING...RISK APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND KEYS TOWARD 18/06-09Z. ...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS... DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH AND WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 01:02:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 20:02:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503180102.j2I12YeJ001485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180100 SWODY1 SPC AC 180058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SUX 30 WNW EAR 40 W SNY 40 ENE RWL 45 NE CPR 20 S RAP 10 W FSD 25 W SPW 40 SE SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MIA 15 N PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING INTO THE FL STRAITS THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD COVERING THE SRN 1/3RD OF THE PENINSULA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FRONTAL AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GULF COULD PROMOTE A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN LIMITED CAPE ENVIRONMENT. ...NCNTRL PLAINS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH WELL-DEFINED LEE-SIDE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER WRN NEB THIS EVENING. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NEB/SRN SD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR WRN IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. EVENING RAOBS FROM THE ROCKIES TO WRN NEB DEPICT VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 C/KM. HOWEVER... ANTECEDENT LOW AND MID LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS VERY DRY AND THEREFORE CAPE IS MEAGER...IN THE RANGE OF 50-150 J/KG. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTENING WITHIN A NARROW E-W CORRIDOR ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SPORADIC AND SHORT-LIVED GIVEN SCARCITY OF CAPE. ..CARBIN.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 05:44:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 00:44:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503180544.j2I5ihkK000563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180543 SWODY1 SPC AC 180541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPW 30 W RST 20 N LSE 35 SW OSH 20 ESE CGX 15 NE DNV 30 ENE MVN DYR 50 W UOX 40 SSE GLH 20 NNW HEZ 40 NW ESF SHV 50 ENE PRX 30 W FSM 25 SSE JLN 30 SW SZL 40 SW P35 55 W DSM 30 S SPW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING THE DAY OVER WRN IA AND ENDING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY OVER NRN IL. AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COLD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ERN SEABOARD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. WEAKER PERTURBATIONS BREAKING AWAY FROM STRONG ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TRAVEL EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND TX WITHIN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THESE AREAS. ...MIDWEST/MID MS VLY... RECENT PASSAGE OF STRONG SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL INTRUSION WELL INTO THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH PRIMARILY LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MIDWEST CYCLONE. HOWEVER...HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WLY FLOW OFF ELEVATED TERRAIN...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT...WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY THIS PERIOD. SLOW MOISTENING AND MIXING WITHIN PERSISTENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM CNTRL IA TO THE ARKLATEX WILL OCCUR BENEATH/WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME AND RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAK DESTABILIZATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AND MARGINAL CAPE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODEST UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AXIS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHES. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 12:43:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 07:43:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503181242.j2ICgo6h004559@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181240 SWODY1 SPC AC 181238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPW 20 SSE MSP 40 ESE EAU 30 W OSH 20 ESE CGX 15 NE DNV 30 ENE MVN DYR 50 W UOX 40 SSE GLH 20 NNW HEZ 40 NW ESF SHV 50 ENE PRX 30 W FSM 10 ESE JLN 45 SW SZL 40 SW P35 55 W DSM 30 S SPW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AR/OZARKS INTO THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY... DEEP ASCENT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IA THROUGH THE DAY. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING STEADILY SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/OZARKS BY LATER TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW ESTABLISHED FROM SERN SD/WRN IA ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...ENHANCING SNOW FALL RATES THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION AND POSSIBLY SWWD INTO NRN MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES AND AIR MASS GRADUALLY MOISTENS...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM THIS EVENING INTO THE LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH ANY ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 16:32:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 11:32:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503181631.j2IGVpLp028819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181626 SWODY1 SPC AC 181624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 35 W HOU 30 NW LFK 45 SW TXK 10 SW FSM 15 ESE JLN 30 ESE MKC 35 SW P35 60 WNW DSM 30 SSE SPW 20 SSE MSP 40 ESE EAU 30 W OSH 15 ESE CGX 10 ESE DNV 55 WNW JAN 30 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 1002 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NWRN IA WILL TRACK EWD ALONG WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IA TO CENTRAL OH. SURFACE LOW WILL REACH NWRN IL BY 19/12Z. SSWWD EXTENDING COLD FRONT ACROSS E-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN THE SRN STREAM...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN BAJA CA WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD REACHING THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 19/12Z. DESPITE THESE DYNAMICAL FEATURES...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OWING TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ...AR TO IA/IL... IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN MO INTO AR. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE W-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITHIN WARM SECTOR. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY /100-500 J/KG/ COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MO AND AR. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW TRACK DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS IA/IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SRN MN TO SRN WI... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER SINCE 11Z AND CONTINUE POSSIBLE WITH NARROW...E-W AXIS OF BANDED SNOW NORTH OF WARM FRONT. AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFTS EWD INTO WRN/SWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. ...SERN/ERN TX AND WRN LA... LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /AFTER 06Z/...MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NRN BAJA CA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT ERN AND SERN TX...INCLUDING THE UPPER COASTAL PLAIN. WRN GULF AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEVELOPMENT OF SLY 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET...JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTENING FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN TX TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MOVEMENT ENEWD TOWARD WRN LA. ..BANACOS/IMY.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 20:00:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 15:00:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503182000.j2IK0cfq012418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181958 SWODY1 SPC AC 181956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 35 W HOU 30 NW LFK 45 SW TXK 10 SW FSM 15 ESE JLN MKC 20 WSW DSM MCW LSE VOK 35 NE MSN 15 ESE CGX 10 ESE DNV 55 WNW JAN 30 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION IS STILL IN RECOVERY FROM COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH DE-AMPLIFYING TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW ACCELERATING AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. PROCESS IS SLOW...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ONLY INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY/TONIGHT...DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA...REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE...AND WARM MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ADVECTED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...MISSOURI/IOWA/ILLINOIS AREA... LATEST SURFACE DATA SUPPORT MODEL PROGS INDICATING THAT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO THROUGH AREAS EAST OF KANSAS CITY AND DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION. DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COOLS AND LAPSE RATES STABILIZE. ...ARKANSAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH... MID-LEVEL CAPPING LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS...VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS. BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES EASTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING OF THIS FEATURE WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT NARROW PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESTABILIZATION STILL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 20:29:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 15:29:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503182029.j2IKTfla000497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182024 SWODY1 SPC AC 181956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 35 W HOU 30 NW LFK 45 SW TXK 10 SW FSM 15 ESE JLN MKC 20 WSW DSM MCW LSE VOK 35 NE MSN 15 ESE CGX 10 ESE DNV 55 WNW JAN 30 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION IS STILL IN RECOVERY FROM COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH DE-AMPLIFYING TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW ACCELERATING AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. PROCESS IS SLOW...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ONLY INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY/TONIGHT...DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA...REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE...AND WARM MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ADVECTED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...MISSOURI/IOWA/ILLINOIS AREA... LATEST SURFACE DATA SUPPORT MODEL PROGS INDICATING THAT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO THROUGH AREAS EAST OF KANSAS CITY AND DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION. DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COOLS AND LAPSE RATES STABILIZE. ...ARKANSAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH... MID-LEVEL CAPPING LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS...VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS. BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES EASTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING OF THIS FEATURE WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT NARROW PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESTABILIZATION STILL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 00:28:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 19:28:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503190028.j2J0SiZC032552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190026 SWODY1 SPC AC 190024 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PAH 25 SSW DYR 55 NNE GLH 30 SE GLH 30 ENE HEZ 25 S HEZ 40 WNW BTR 20 WNW LFT 15 NNE LCH 45 N BPT 20 ESE LFK 20 SSW GGG 45 N GGG 30 NW TXK 10 N FSM 15 SSW FYV 15 ESE JLN 20 NW SZL 35 SSE P35 40 SW OTM 30 WSW CID 15 E CID 35 NNE MLI 20 ENE MMO 35 NW LAF 10 ENE HUF EVV 25 S PAH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST/MS VLY REGION... MODEST TO STRONG ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TONIGHT AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG RELATIVELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM IA INTO NRN IL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY LIMITED. ALTHOUGH...DEEP MIXING ACROSS WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR CYCLONE CENTER FROM MO INTO SRN IA MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS TO INITIATE THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MAY INCREASE WITH SWD AND EWD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG IMPULSE... CURRENTLY IDENTIFIED ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING CO...MOVES EAST ACROSS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS FROM MO INTO AR AND THEN EWD TO IL. HOWEVER...LACK OF GREATER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIRMASS...SHOULD KEEP TSTM ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED OVER THESE AREAS. ...TX/LA LATE... ETA APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME GENERATING MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX GULF COAST BY MORNING. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AND STRONGER ASCENT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER TX GULF COAST ACROSS WRN/NRN LA. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 05:49:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 00:49:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503190549.j2J5nd3v001469@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190547 SWODY1 SPC AC 190502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP VCT 55 N VCT 40 E CLL 40 NNW POE 10 WSW HEZ 40 SE MCB 30 W BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 30 WSW COT 10 ESE BWD 50 N FTW 60 W MEM 50 SSW HUF 20 E MMO 15 S AZO 20 SW CLE 15 WSW PKB 35 N HSV 15 WNW TOI 25 W PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 20 SSE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW OTH 60 ESE DLS 60 W BOI 55 NW ENV 45 SE ELY 30 NW NID 25 W BFL 20 S MRY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY AREAS...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN ROCKIES...AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDWEST/MS VLY AREAS WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SPREADING SEWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY AND UPPER TX GULF COAST TODAY. THIS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE TOPPED BY MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW COMPRISED OF A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVES. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS S TX EARLY TODAY...WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LWR CO RIVER VLY...WILL APPROACH SCNTRL TX AND THE UPPER TX GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...SERN TX AND SRN LA/MS... A TRICKY FCST FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS TODAY AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR STRONG ASCENT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN A BIT AMBIGUOUS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE CROSSING THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE DAY. STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE MS VLY AREA FROM NERN LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHERE PHASING BETWEEN A MIDDLE STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL OCCUR. INSTABILITY EAST OF ANTICIPATED ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN PRESENT AIR MASS AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CLEARING AND WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THESE FIRST MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM LA WWD TO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...TOPPED BY RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG FROM VCT TO HOU TO LCH. GIVEN THIS MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...ANY DEVELOPING STORM WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH LEAD TO THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. 1) EARLY ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SWRN MS/ERN LA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...BACKBUILDS INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY AND BECOMES SURFACE-BASED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN LA...AND/OR 2) PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AND HEATING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...OR OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION... PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM SRN LA INTO TX...AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND AND HAIL LIKELY. IF BOTH SCENARIOS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 12:58:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 07:58:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503191257.j2JCvmvt008188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191255 SWODY1 SPC AC 191253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 45 SE SAT 25 SSW AUS 30 SSE TPL 55 NW ESF 25 NE HEZ MCB 25 SW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 30 WSW COT 10 ESE BWD 50 N FTW 60 W MEM 50 SSW HUF 20 E MMO 15 S AZO 20 SW CLE 15 WSW PKB 35 N HSV 15 WNW TOI 25 W PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 20 SSE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW OTH 60 ESE DLS 60 W BOI 55 NW ENV 45 SE ELY 30 NW NID 25 W BFL 20 S MRY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PART OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MS/WRN TN INTO NRN LA AND CENTRAL TX BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN...WITH SIMILAR READINGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MOIST CONVECTION INTO NRN/CENTRAL MS EARLY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF SLGT RISK AREA IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER SWRN TX/NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WHICH SHOULD OVERSPREAD ERN TX LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 12Z SOUNDING FROM LCH SUPPORTS 09Z RUC FORECAST OF MAINTAINING MODEST CAPPING NEAR H85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO PART OF CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...SUGGESTING STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE NEAR THE TX COAST PLAIN WHERE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SMALL LINES AND SHIFT ESEWD OFF THE TX COAST AND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 16:44:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 11:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503191644.j2JGi4hU014155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191641 SWODY1 SPC AC 191639 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 20 NW LRD 40 ESE DRT 30 ESE JCT 40 E TPL 55 NW ESF 25 NE HEZ MCB 25 SW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CRE 20 NE RWI 35 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS 40 SE ALW 55 NW ENV 15 SSE ELY 60 SE BIH 45 WNW BFL 20 S MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 55 SSE LRD ...CONT... 20 SE DRT 15 WSW JCT 25 SSE BWD 15 SSE FTW 15 N SHV 50 N MLU 50 N GLH DYR 20 SSW BMG 45 SSE SBN 45 SSW JXN 40 SSE DTW 15 NNW CAK 20 W HLG 40 NE CRW 30 S JKL 25 SSE HSV 25 NNE SEM 20 S CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN/ERN TX INTO LA... ...SRN/ERN TX INTO LA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAX DEVELOPING NEAR ELP WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AND NRN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL/SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO/LA TONIGHT AS STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER WINDS SURGE ESEWD ACROSS NRN MEX TOWARD FAR SRN TX AND THE NWRN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN AR INTO CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD INTO TX AND LA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z DRT SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN TX TOWARD LA AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA/FAR SRN TX/AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX IN REGIONS OF FEWER CLOUDS...CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROMOTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS SRN/ERN TX INTO SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM INDICATES STRONGER CELLS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO PROMOTE ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF TX. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS BY TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA TONIGHT. ..WEISS/BANACOS.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 19:54:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 14:54:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503191954.j2JJs2Is012196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191951 SWODY1 SPC AC 191949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 20 NNW LRD 15 ENE DRT 30 SW JCT 50 N CLL 45 NNW POE 25 ESE ESF 20 NE BTR 30 SW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ILM GSB 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS 40 SE ALW 55 NW ENV 15 SSE ELY 60 SE BIH 45 WNW BFL 20 S MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 55 SSE LRD ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 25 ENE SJT 40 NNW DAL 35 N SHV 50 N MLU 50 N GLH DYR 20 SSW BMG 45 SSE SBN 45 SSW JXN 40 SSE DTW 15 SW YNG 15 W LBE EKN 40 SSE JKL 25 SSE HSV 25 NNE SEM 20 S CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN TX EWD INTO SRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM -- WITHIN BROADER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS / NRN MEXICO -- WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS TX TOWARD THE WRN GULF. ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE UVV AND PRESENCE OF STALLING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...S TX / THE HILL COUNTRY ENEWD INTO SRN LA... INITIAL CLUSTER OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST S OF JCT...WITH STORMS FORECAST TO INCREASE EWD / SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN / SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HEATING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE...WHICH ALONG WITH COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN RELATIVELY COOL LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED -- INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES IN EXCESS OF 2" IN DIAMETER. LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER SERN TX -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO ONGOING HAIL THREAT. THOUGH LESSER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON...MCS ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO SRN LA OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 00:53:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 19:53:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503200052.j2K0qlql009949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200050 SWODY1 SPC AC 200048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 30 W ALI 25 N COT 35 ESE TPL 25 SSW SHV 20 WNW HEZ 30 ESE BTR 30 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW TOL 40 N CLE 10 SSW ERI 25 E PKB 25 NNW BKW TYS 30 SSW CSV 50 WSW CSV 30 SW BNA 20 ESE CKV 30 ENE SDF 10 WNW TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS 40 SSE ALW 10 NNW ENV 40 SSE ELY 60 ESE BIH 30 WNW EDW 20 S MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BRO 55 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 NNW HDO 20 SE SEP 25 E DAL 25 SE TXK 35 WSW GLH 40 SSW TCL 20 S MGM 10 NE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS RWI 20 WNW ORF 50 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA... ...MID-UPPER TX COAST TO SRN LA... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN TX AND SRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE TOWARD SWRN/SCNTRL LA LATER THIS EVENING. VAD WIND/PROFILERS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS EVENING. 00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND TSTMS HAVE GENERATED WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOLS...MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED OR PULSE-TYPE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM KCLL TO SWRN LA. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED CONSIDERABLY IN THIS ZONE AND STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY EXIST HERE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. BUT...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND MERGE INTO A MCS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OF A CONCERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL LA. A FEW TSTMS MAY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EAST-SOUTH OF KSAT THIS EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS YET TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS MIGHT POSE A HAIL THREAT RATHER THAN A WIND THREAT AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT ANY STORM THAT MIGHT FORM. ..RACY.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 05:45:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 00:45:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503200545.j2K5jcVH020024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200543 SWODY1 SPC AC 200541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 50 SW MHS 45 ENE RBL 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY ...CONT... 45 ENE BLI 20 SE SEA 15 SSE ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BRO 25 ESE COT 35 SSE BWD 45 SW SPS 20 WNW GAG 40 ESE LIC 30 WSW COS 20 ESE FMN 60 NNE IGM 25 NNE DRA TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 30 WSW GEG 30 ENE 63S 40 W FCA 35 W BZN 55 SW GCC 35 SE MHN 20 NNW BIE 15 SW SGF 35 SSE HOT 15 S GWO 30 N MGM 20 S CSG 20 SSW ABY AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM TO THE ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL JET NOW MOVING INTO THE SWRN STATES. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN THE SRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WRN PORTION OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE DEEP S/TX EARLY SUNDAY WILL REDEVELOP NWWD AS A LEE-TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE TX HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL GULF COAST REGION... LATE SATURDAY ERN TX MCS BECAME WELL-DEVELOPED AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL MAINTAINED THE NEXT 24-HRS. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE MCS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. BUT...NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD RELAX WITH TIME AS ATTENDANT H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAILSTONE ACROSS THIS AREA IN CASE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST. ...SRN PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER IN WAKE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT MCS. APPROACH OF THE SWRN US TROUGH/JET WILL INDUCE LEE-TROUGH/ CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASING SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT 50S/60S DEW POINTS NWWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THOUGH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT SPREAD EWD UNTIL AFTER DARK...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAKLY CYCLONIC. THUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW TSTMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FROM N TX INTO SRN KS. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL AUGMENT UPDRAFT ACCELERATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD STORMS. BUT...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS IF STORMS INDEED FORM WITH HAIL OR STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE ISOLD TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED AND EXPAND WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SRN KS/ERN OK AND NERN TX AND MAY CONTAIN ISOLD LARGE HAIL. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 12:45:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 07:45:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503201245.j2KCj4HJ006382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201242 SWODY1 SPC AC 201240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 50 ESE CEC 50 ESE MHS 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 20 SE SEA 15 SSE ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CRP 15 NW SAT 50 NE JCT 40 ESE CDS 55 W GAG 35 SE LHX 35 W TAD 10 NW 4SL 60 NNE IGM 25 NNE DRA TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 30 WSW GEG 30 ENE 63S 40 W FCA 20 NE BTM 30 SE JAC 25 E RKS 20 NNW CYS 40 ENE SNY 35 N EAR 30 WNW JLN 40 N TXK 35 SW GWO 20 W 0A8 20 SW CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... MCV FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IS WELL DEFINED OVER S-CENTRAL LA AT 12Z...WITH ARCING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THOUGH MCV WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL DEFINED AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING EWD FASTER THAN PRECEEDING SSELY SURFACE WINDS CAN BRING MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. EXPECT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR THE MCV LATER THIS MORNING. IN FACT...MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM SIL /USING SURFACE TEMP AROUND 70F AND DEW POINT NEAR 60F/ INDICATES LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SHOULD SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCUR IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AREA MAY NEED UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK LATER THIS MORNING IF IT BECOMES APPARENT AIR MASS WILL INDEED RECOVER. ...ERN TX INTO SWRN KS/NWRN OK... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SERN CO WITH A DRY LINE/TROUGH EXPECTED TO BECOME WELL DEFINED FROM THE LOW SSEWD INTO WRN OK AND NWRN/CENTRAL TX BY LATER TODAY. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE COLD POOL FROM MCS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HINDER GULF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE WITH DEW POINTS AOB 50F EXPECTED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THIS...MODEST HEATING AND VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS AND OK INTO NERN TX AFTER DARK AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...OVERALL THREAT LEVEL REMAINS BELOW A SLGT ATTM. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PAC NW. ONGOING STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED HAIL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...STRONGER CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 16:35:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 11:35:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503201635.j2KGZ3ph006662@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201632 SWODY1 SPC AC 201630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 25 NNE OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 25 N RBL 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 25 NNE HDO 50 S BWD 30 NNE ABI 40 NW EHA 20 WNW TAD 35 SSE ALS 25 WNW SAF 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 30 S HOT 40 NE MEI 45 SSW SEM 10 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...KS/OK/TX AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV WILL MOVE EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY OTHER SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN A PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM JET. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE CO AND THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE TOWARD SWRN KS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. S OF THE LEE CYCLONE...A LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL CONSOLIDATE SSEWD ACROSS FROM THE LEE CYCLONE INTO NW TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE LIMITED TO S CENTRAL AND E TX IN THE WAKE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO DEEP S TX. RESIDUAL L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL SPREAD NWD/NWWD ACROSS NW TX/OK/SW KS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM TO THE MID 60S IN SW KS AND 75-80 F ACROSS NW TX...RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG/ IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE LEE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEGINNING THIS EVENING INVOF SW KS AND DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS OK/N TX INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE W EDGE OF THE GULF MCS OUTFLOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER E TX...THOUGH AN EMBEDDED MCV IS MOVING EWD AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER LA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM E TX ACROSS LA TO SRN MS...THOUGH RELATIVELY POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 16:35:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 11:35:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503201635.j2KGZ71j006763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201633 SWODY1 SPC AC 201631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 25 NNE OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 25 N RBL 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 25 NNE HDO 50 S BWD 30 NNE ABI 40 NW EHA 20 WNW TAD 35 SSE ALS 25 WNW SAF 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 30 S HOT 40 NE MEI 45 SSW SEM 10 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...KS/OK/TX AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV WILL MOVE EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY OTHER SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN A PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM JET. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE CO AND THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE TOWARD SWRN KS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. S OF THE LEE CYCLONE...A LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL CONSOLIDATE SSEWD ACROSS FROM THE LEE CYCLONE INTO NW TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE LIMITED TO S CENTRAL AND E TX IN THE WAKE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO DEEP S TX. RESIDUAL L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL SPREAD NWD/NWWD ACROSS NW TX/OK/SW KS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM TO THE MID 60S IN SW KS AND 75-80 F ACROSS NW TX...RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG/ IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE LEE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEGINNING THIS EVENING INVOF SW KS AND DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS OK/N TX INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE W EDGE OF THE GULF MCS OUTFLOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER E TX...THOUGH AN EMBEDDED MCV IS MOVING EWD AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER LA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM E TX ACROSS LA TO SRN MS...THOUGH RELATIVELY POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 20:06:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 15:06:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503202006.j2KK6J1D014478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202003 SWODY1 SPC AC 202002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 15 WSW COT 50 ENE DRT 35 SSE ABI 45 WNW CDS 25 SW EHA 25 SSE TAD 40 NNE LVS 25 WNW SAF 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 30 S HOT 40 NE MEI 45 SSW SEM 10 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 25 NNE OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 25 N RBL 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ECG 45 S RIC 35 SE CHO 20 ENE CHO 25 SSE MRB 20 E HGR 40 WNW CXY 30 NW CXY 25 WSW ABE 15 ESE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN KS / WRN AND CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL AND ERN TX... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE SPREADING NWD INTO S CENTRAL / SWRN KS...AND INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK / N TX. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S HAS RESULTED IN MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ FROM OK SWD INTO NRN AND CENTRAL TX. SURFACE OBS ALSO INDICATE THAT DRYLINE IS DEVELOPING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SSEWD INTO CENTRAL TX INVOF SJT. WITH CONTINUED HEATING / MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT DRYLINE TO MIX EWD INTO WRN OK / ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION ATTM...A FEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL -- MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THIS EVENING HOWEVER...AS CYCLONICALLY-ARCING LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FROM SWRN TX NEWD INTO OK AND THEN NWD / NNWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS / SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN CO / WRN AND CENTRAL KS / SWRN NEB ACROSS OK AND INTO NRN AND CENTRAL TX. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGEST A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SERN LA / FAR SERN MS... RELATIVELY STABLE / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INVOF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THOUGH WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION BASED ON LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES...FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW INDICATED OVER W CENTRAL LA MOVES EWD. COMBINATION OF FORECAST DECREASE IN WIND FIELD AND PERSISTENCE OF CAPPED / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 00:54:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 19:54:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503210054.j2L0sOie009315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210051 SWODY1 SPC AC 210049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE OKC OKC 20 E CSM GCK 40 ESE GLD 35 NW HLC 40 NNE RSL 15 NE HUT 15 S PNC 40 ENE OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF 15 NNW RIC 35 SSW DCA 20 ESE ILG 25 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MIA 10 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 25 NNE OTH ...CONT... 10 N CEC 60 SSW SVE 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW POE 45 SW LFK 20 SW CLL 35 N SAT 20 ENE JCT 20 SE ABI 10 NNE CDS 45 NW PVW 30 WNW CVS 25 NE 4CR 45 WNW ONM 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 20 ENE TXK 40 NW POE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK AND CNTRL/WRN KS... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... PROFILERS/VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A COUPLE OF VORT MAXIMA TRAVELING THROUGH SRN CO/NRN NM ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF 50-70 KT H5 JET. STRONG UVV IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR GROWING CONVECTION ACROSS WRN KS SWD INTO WCNTRL OK. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN A NARROW WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS/TEMPS IN THE 40S/60-70F RESPECTIVELY. STRONGER STORMS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN KS WHERE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WERE THE STEEPEST/H5 TEMPS AOB MINUS 20C. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS. DIME-QUARTER SIZED HAIL HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS. TO THE SOUTH...THE 00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS SHOWED WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK BUOYANCY...LIKELY MITIGATING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS. FARTHER S...AS MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND STRONGER LIFT APPROACH... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND INTO N TX LATER TONIGHT. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM CNTRL/NRN OK NWD INTO KS WHERE THE STRONGEST UVV/BUOYANCY WILL EXIST. FARTHER S...ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 12:40:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 07:40:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503211240.j2LCeRGG024548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211238 SWODY1 SPC AC 211236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE AUS 10 W AUS 20 SE DAL 35 SW MLC 35 WNW PGO HOT 35 ESE ELD 30 NNE POE 50 ESE AUS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 40 ESE DRT 30 N DRT 25 E SPS 30 NNE FSI 40 NNE GAG 35 WNW P28 15 ESE ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60 SSW SEM 10 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ALM 35 SSE TCS 50 ENE SAD 55 SSW SOW 60 W SOW 10 ENE FLG 65 NE INW 20 WNW GNT 25 N ONM 35 N ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 10 NW DRT 55 NNW DRT 35 S SPS 30 SSW CDS 25 SE LAA 30 WNW HLC 35 S SZL 50 NE MKL GAD 55 E MCN 30 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW RBL 25 WNW SAC 20 NNW MRY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WAS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL WAA...IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OK AND TX...SOME OF WHICH HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL. SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY ESEWD INTO S-CENTRAL KS/N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BULGE EWD INTO CENTRAL OK/N-CENTRAL TX...AND TRAIL SSWWD FROM NEAR PRX INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRIMARY CONCERN REGARDING QUALITY OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL CENTER ON TWO POINTS...1) DELAYED SURFACE HEATING FROM EARLY STORMS AND 2) DEGREE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO ERN TX/ERN OK. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING ONGOING STORMS ACROSS ERN OK INTO NERN TX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OUTRUN DRY LINE AND ALLOW SEVERAL HOURS HEATING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF DRY LINE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NWD INTO PARTS OF OK AND MUCH OF ERN TX...AS 55+F SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM E-CENTRAL OK SWD. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION AS 100+ KT H25 JET AND 70-80 KT H5 SPEED MAX SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX. ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX AND ERN OK WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE COOL/STABLE AIR INTO SRN MO/CENTRAL AR/FAR NERN OK AND LIMIT NEWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING...STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AND SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY FORM IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...NEARER THE DRY LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH ANY PERSISTENT/DISCRETE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITHIN MDT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. A SECOND AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEARER THE LOW CENTER INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK AND FAR S-CENTRAL KS. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH -20C TO -22C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS THIS EVENING OVER ERN OK/WRN AR AND ERN TX AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A THREAT OF TORNADOES WELL AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 16:41:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 11:41:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503211640.j2LGedva031177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211634 SWODY1 SPC AC 211632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N PSX 30 ENE SAT 10 SSE DAL 40 WSW MLC 30 NNE MLC 10 SSW HOT 25 NNW JAN 15 NW MCB 25 WSW POE 50 N PSX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 30 NE COT 40 SE JCT 60 W TPL 30 E SEP 50 SSW ADM 35 NW ADM 30 WNW OKC 45 ENE GAG 40 S DDC DDC 15 E ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60 SSW SEM 10 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SE COT 45 WNW HDO BWD 30 SE SPS 20 E LTS 45 N CDS 70 S LBL 30 W GCK 50 SW HLC 25 ENE HLC 35 S SZL 50 NE MKL 10 SE GAD 30 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS 15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SAD 55 NNE PHX 25 E GCN 80 SSW 4BL 30 W 4SL 20 SSE ABQ 25 NW ALM 35 SSW TCS 40 NW SAD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS E/NE TX AND SE OK THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD INTO SW AR/NRN LA AND WRN MS BY LATE TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM SRN KS/NRN OK SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.... ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LBL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING EWD OVER SRN OK/CENTRAL AND N TX...ANOTHER WHICH IS ROTATING SEWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...AND A THIRD SPEED MAX OVER AZ WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A 996 MB CYCLONE IN THE ERN OK PANHANDLE /NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW/ WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING DRYLINE MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND OK. E OF THE DRYLINE...A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA. THE QUALITY AND EXPANSE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR ARE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW NWD DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NE TX AND NRN LA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE N. THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR W OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT OF THIS AXIS INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OF THE ONGOING STORMS...THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE TX THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE LOW LEVELS WILL WARM AND MOISTEN SOONER THAN AREAS TO THE N. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THROUGH THE LOW-MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING STORMS...WHERE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FROM N TX INTO CENTRAL OK ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE...GENERALLY ALONG OR E OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO OKC TO DFW. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HEATING BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 56-60 F AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES ACROSS ERN OK AND NE TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE WIDTH AND QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR BEING THE PRIMARY LIMIT ON THE AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT. THE AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER BAND AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN AND SRN AR/CENTRAL AND NRN LA/WRN MS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE SE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 20:01:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 15:01:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503212000.j2LK0sIW030938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211959 SWODY1 SPC AC 211957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N VCT 45 E SAT 30 WSW AUS 30 NNE ACT 35 SW DUA 20 NNE ADM 30 E OKC 55 E OKC 30 N MLC 30 S HOT 40 SSW GWO 20 SW JAN 30 N BTR 30 N LCH 50 N VCT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 40 ENE COT 10 ENE HDO 50 W AUS 20 NW ACT 45 NNW DAL ADM 30 NW OKC 30 NNW GAG 20 SSE DDC 45 E DDC 15 E ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60 SSW SEM 10 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SE COT 45 S JCT 10 SE SEP 40 ESE SPS FSI 45 N CDS 70 S LBL 30 W GCK 50 SW HLC 35 ENE HLC 35 S SZL 25 E POF 25 SW RMG 30 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS 15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SAD 55 NNE PHX 25 E GCN 80 SSW 4BL 30 W 4SL 20 SSE ABQ 25 NW ALM 35 SSW TCS 40 NW SAD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK THROUGH NERN AND E CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX...OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SRN KS THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK...CNTRL/ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SWRN KS/NW OK WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NW TX. VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET NOW OVER NM WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL TX BY MID EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NW OK SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND THEN SWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE NRN GULF INTO SW LA AND NWWD INTO SE TX. RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S REMAIN CONFINED TO S TX. AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXTENDS NWD THROUGH NERN TX AND CNTRL/ERN OK. DESPITE LIMITED RETURN OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A NARROW AXIS FROM N-CNTRL/NE TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE. IN THIS AREA...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HEATING EXISTS UNDERNEATH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES... CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX HAS BECOME COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. BACKED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS FROM NERN TX NEWD THROUGH ERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL THREATS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER NW ALONG THE COLD-FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER ACROSS NW OK INTO SWRN KS CLOSER TO UPPER LOW CENTER. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN THIS AREA. TIMING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S TOWARD CNTRL TX IS MORE UNCERTAIN. TREND HAS BEEN FOR EARLY WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO WEAKEN... POSSIBLY DUE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE MCS CONTINUES EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINES AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 00:57:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 19:57:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503220057.j2M0vXfG006969@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220055 SWODY1 SPC AC 220053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N VCT 30 SSE AUS 30 NNE AUS 45 NE ACT 30 ENE DAL 30 NNE DUA 20 SE MLC PGO 50 SE PGO 30 S HOT 40 SSW GWO 20 SW JAN 30 N BTR 30 N LCH 50 N VCT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE VCT 35 NE COT 25 WSW SAT 35 SW TPL 10 E DAL 40 W MLC 50 ENE OKC 35 NNW END 20 NE P28 20 WNW ICT 40 WSW JLN 30 NNW LIT 15 NE GWO 45 E MEI 50 NW CEW 15 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 E COT 30 NNE HDO 30 S FTW 20 WNW ADM 30 N FSI 40 ESE GAG 40 NW GAG GCK 50 NNE DDC 25 NNW HUT 15 WSW VIH 25 E POF 25 SW RMG 30 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS 15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK...NRN LA...SRN AR AND A SMALL PART OF THE MS DELTA REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VLY... ...SERN OK/SWRN AR SWD TO THE UPPER TX COAST AND EWD TO DEEP S... COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER ENHANCED REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL TX...WITH ITS INFLUENCE BEGINNING TO BE FELT ACROSS E TX. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING... ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM SERN OK TO THE UPPER TX COAST. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SWD TOWARD HOUSTON WAS AFFECTED BY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT LATEST MESOANALYSIS HINTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT SPREAD EWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH EVENING ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACK WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. LARGE HAIL...SOME POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...LONG-LOOPED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MDT RISK AREA. TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MS...LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. THUS...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME. ...CNTRL/ERN OK... SURFACE LOW HAS SETTLED SWD INTO CNTRL OK WITH AN ARCING DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST OF STILLWATER TO WEST OF DURANT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE WITH TIME THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM S OF KTUL INTO SRN AR. A NARROW WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S EXISTS BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT....CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG. ISOLD SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL OK...FEEDING OFF WARM SECTOR PARCELS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COLDER AIR. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS ECNTRL OK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL GIVEN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY LOW LCLS. ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED TSTMS...WITH BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER... CONTINUE BENEATH THE MAIN COLD CORE ALOFT ACROSS NCNTRL OK. THOUGH CAPE IS MINIMAL...LOW-LEVEL HELICITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT A HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT COLLISION IN THE DEEPLY MIXED DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN OK...ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THESE STORMS ARE APT TO ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN OK IN A FEW HOURS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINEAR NATURE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. THESE THREATS WILL SPREAD TOWARD AR OVERNIGHT. ...ECNTRL FL... NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THE ECNTRL FL COAST THIS EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD LAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. HAVE NOT INCLUDED A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT GIVEN SHORT TERM NATURE TO THE SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 05:53:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 00:53:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503220552.j2M5qfPK025341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220549 SWODY1 SPC AC 220547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW MGR 40 NNW PNS 15 NNW LUL 25 NNE GWO 35 SSW DYR 50 NNW HSV 25 SE HSV 25 SE ANB 25 S MCN 50 SSE MCN 15 WSW MGR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE GLS 45 SE PRX 30 NNE MKO 15 SW UMN 30 WNW POF 25 E OWB 10 NNE LOZ 15 N AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PBI 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 55 SSW TYR 20 SSE DUA 55 WNW MLC 35 S PNC 35 WSW EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 15 SW BNO 60 WNW TWF 30 S P38 50 SSW LAS 25 ESE LGB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF MIDDLE TN...ERN MS...MUCH OF AL AND A SMALL PORTION OF SWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER MS VLY...THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE SERN STATES INCLUDING NRN/CNTRL FL... ...SYNOPSIS.. STACKED UPPER LOW OVER OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH MO TUE AFTN WITH AN ASSOCIATED 80 KT H5 JET ARCING ACROSS LA INTO MS AND AL BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER ERN OK WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NW AR BY 18Z...NERN AR BY 00Z AND INTO THE LOWER OH VLY TUE NIGHT. A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY BY EARLY TUE...REACHING THE AL/MS STATE LINE BY 00Z. A WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD WITH TIME THROUGH THE SRN STATES. ...DEEP S... ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM AR SWD INTO LA WILL LIKELY MOVE ENEWD AND BE PRESENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO PARTS OF MS. THIS ACTIVITY IS APT TO DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME ACROSS NRN AL AND GA DURING THE PROGRESS OF THE MORNING AND INTO TN/KY AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LARGELY ELEVATED THE FARTHER IT MOVES NE ATOP THE COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM KY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT AS FAR N AS MIDDLE TN...NERN AL...CNTRL GA...ERN SC BY PEAK HEATING. THIS MAY BE TOO FAR N CONSIDERING CLOUDS/RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. THE MID-60S SURFACE DEW POINT POOL ACROSS THE NRN GULF WILL PROBABLY ADVECT INTO AT LEAST CNTRL MS/AL AND SRN GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY CLEARING BEHIND MORNING ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AS H5 TEMPS OF MINUS 15-20C BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MOIST AXIS. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MIDDLE TN SWD INTO ERN MS. SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION W.R.T. THE INITIATING BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY IN THE MDT RISK AREA. ...NRN/CNTRL FL... TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL TUE AFTN ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/WARM FRONT. 40-50 KT H5 FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. LATER AT NIGHT...AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COASTAL AREA...A BAND OF TSTMS IS APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE ORGANIZED WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ...CAROLINAS... WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS TUE AFTN AND NIGHT. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS... PARTICULARLY OVER ERN SC. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. ...AR INTO THE MID-SOUTH... COLD POOL ALOFT /H5 TEMP AOB MINUS 20C/ WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR AND TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH TUE WHERE RESIDUAL DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL EXIST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW. ...CNTRL CA... BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. ANY HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS. ISOLD TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR IN THE VLYS OF CNTRL CA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CAN REMAINED BACKED. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 12:41:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 07:41:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503221241.j2MCf5ZX023207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221238 SWODY1 SPC AC 221236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N VLD 40 NNW PNS 35 NNE JAN 60 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 15 SW MKL 25 WSW MSL 35 SSW ANB 20 NW MCN 45 ESE MCN 25 N VLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LCH 20 SW HEZ FSM 30 SSW UMN 30 WNW POF 40 NE BWG 10 NNE LOZ 15 N AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PBI 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 55 SSW TYR 20 SSE DUA 55 WNW MLC 35 S PNC 35 WSW EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 15 SW BNO 60 WNW TWF 30 S P38 50 SSW LAS 25 ESE LGB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TN/NRN MS INTO CENTRAL/SRN AL AND SRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO TODAY FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AS LARGE AREA OF STRONG WSWLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION AND INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION BY LATE TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EITHER COINCIDENT OR JUST AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO CENTRAL AL/GA...WHILE COASTAL FRONT LIFTS WNWWD ACROSS ERN GA/WRN SC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRIMARY WARM FRONT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC AND NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SRN/CENTRAL MS INTO THE SOUTHEAST... MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY THE LATE MORNING EAST OF ONGOING LINE OF STORMS AND SOUTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. AS H85 CONVERGENCE AXIS SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT STILL CENTERS ON 1) HOW MUCH AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND 2) HOW MUCH HEATING CAN PRECEED THE STORMS. SHOULD TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF STORM CLUSTERS/LINES ACROSS MS...AL OR GA...THEN SEVERITY OF ANY ENSUING WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...MDT RISK ACROSS PART OF THIS REGION REMAINS WARRANTED GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ACROSS AL/GA AND INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL SOME AFTER DARK... VERY STRONG SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES AS POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE SHIFTS ENEWD TOWARDS THE COAST. ...MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY... APPEARS CLEARING AND STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING WILL BOOST SBCAPE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. 06Z ETA AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AREA WILL CONVECT LATER TODAY AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE TROUGH/UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS INTO FAR NERN AR/SWRN TN/NRN MS BY 21Z...AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES/SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN/CENTRAL FL... THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS FL...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN AS 40-50 KT WLY H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN ADDITION...UPPER 60F-NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MODEST SBCAPE TO DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THUS AS STORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. LATER TONIGHT...TAIL END OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD INTO NRN FL WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...CENTRAL CA... STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF CA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO NRN CA/SWRN ORE. THOUGH MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 16:25:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 11:25:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503221624.j2MGOYS8022839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221621 SWODY1 SPC AC 221619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SSI 40 NNW DAB 35 NE MOB 40 ENE JAN 55 SW MEM 30 NNE MEM 15 SSW MKL 25 SSE ANB MCN 60 N AYS 25 SSE SSI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LCH 20 SW HEZ FSM 30 SSW UMN 30 WNW POF 40 NE BWG 10 NNE LOZ 15 N AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MIA 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 NE TXK 30 NW PGO 40 E OKC 35 S PNC 40 SSW EMP 10 ESE MKC 45 S UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45 SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED 10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CENTRAL AND NRN MS... SWRN TN...MUCH OF AL...SRN GA AND NRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO TODAY FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AS LARGE AREA OF STRONG WSWLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION AND INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION BY LATE TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EITHER COINCIDENT OR JUST AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO CENTRAL AL/GA...WHILE COASTAL FRONT LIFTS WNWWD ACROSS ERN GA/WRN SC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRIMARY WARM FRONT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC AND NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF NRN CA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY. ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO NRN FL/GEORGIA... WHILE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVES STEADILY EWD ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO TODAY...STRONG 80-90 KT 500MB WIND MAX TRACKS FROM LA TO GA BY EARLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONT SHIFTING INLAND ON 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE COOL/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT HAS SPREAD EWD TO FL WILL SUPPORT AN ARRAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SCENARIOS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE NOW MOVING INTO WRN AL DRIVEN BY THE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX DRIVING EWD FROM LA. IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE...SHEAR/HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS WELL AS MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING NEWD AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFT INLAND ACROSS NRN FL/SRN AL/GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS HEATING OCCURS IN THE DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS NRN AR BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL WITH THE STEEP COOL LAPSE RATES...THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. ...FL... REF MCD 338 AIR MASS ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WAS POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF FL PENINSULA WITH UNUSUALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM. WITH HEATING AND AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND 15-20 KT SFC-1KM SHEAR...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CAROLINAS... WARM FRONT SHIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO ERN CAROLINAS...ALLOWING 60F DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY LINEAR GIVEN THE JUST MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR. ...CA... STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND CA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED HEATING POTENTIAL GIVEN THE OBSERVED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THE 7C/KM COLD LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WILL BE LINKED TO THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTRAL VALLEY AS BARRIER FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEST OF SIERRAS. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 20:06:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 15:06:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503222005.j2MK5wGx030719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222002 SWODY1 SPC AC 222001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 15 SSE PFN MAI 35 WNW ABY 25 SSW MCN 55 ESE MCN 30 WNW SAV 20 ESE SAV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MIA 15 SW FMY ...CONT... 15 ESE LCH 35 SSW ESF 35 N ESF 25 SE ELD 30 S HOT 50 E FSM 10 NNW HRO 35 NW UNO 45 W MDH 45 WSW EVV 25 NE BWG 45 NNW TYS HKY 25 NNW SOP 20 ESE RWI 40 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 NE TXK 30 NW PGO 40 E OKC 35 S PNC 40 SSW EMP 10 ESE MKC 45 S UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45 SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED 10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN TA INTO NRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES... ...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL... EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SWRN SC INTO SRN GA AND EXTREME SERN AL WHERE IT INTERSECTS A SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH SWRN GA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF WARM FRONT WHERE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. THE LATEST VWP DATA SHOW LARGE HODOGRAPHS FROM NRN FL INTO SRN GA. THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE FURTHER AUGMENTED AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH WRN/MIDDLE TN AND AL... AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN AR THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT ACROSS LA. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN AR SWD INTO LA. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST E OF THESE BOUNDARIES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER AR NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SPREADS NEWD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO MS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ALONG MOIST AXIS E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER E ACROSS AL...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED BY THE EARLIER MCS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER W MAY ADVANCE EWD INTO AL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AL WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN BACKED TO SSELY. ..DIAL.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 01:07:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 20:07:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503230107.j2N17Rtn010752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230104 SWODY1 SPC AC 230102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW HUM 40 NE MCB 40 SSE UOX 35 WNW MEM 25 S POF 25 N PAH BWG 20 W TYS 35 ENE MCN 50 N AYS 30 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 NE GWO 35 WSW MEM 10 WNW ARG 20 NE POF MDH 10 ESE EVV 20 WNW SDF 30 SE LUK 15 WSW UNI 15 SSE PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 NNW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45 SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED 10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...THE TN VLY...DEEP SOUTH...AND PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...MID-SOUTH/TN VLY SWD INTO THE DEEP S... MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A TRIPLE POINT VCNTY KMEM WITH A DRYLINE SWD THROUGH KJAN THEN TO SCNTRL LA. TSTMS...INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...FORMED EARLIER WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WERE JUXTAPOSED. MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE COMBINED WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW VCNTY THE LOW HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AIR MASS HAS ALSO DESTABILIZED FARTHER E AND N ACROSS FAR SWRN KY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THAT STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THESE AREAS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL PROBABLY DECREASE. BUT...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING IN NE-SW ORIENTED ACCAS BANDS ACROSS ECNTRL MS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VLY AND THE 8KM WRF/21Z ETAKF AND 21Z RUC ALL SUGGEST THAT TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE NEWD INTO PARTS OF AL THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT DOWNSTREAM IN AL...BUT BUOYANCY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL PER THE 00Z BMX SOUNDING. THERE IS LIKELY A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER WHERE BUOYANCY IS GREATER. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND IF STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD ATOP THE COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NWRN GA AND ERN TN LATER TONIGHT. ...NRN FL TO THE ERN CAROLINAS... MOST OF THE SEVERE TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS EVENING AS A WELL-DEFINED MCV ROTATES EWD FROM THE KSAV AREA. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY INTERCEPT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE OFF OF FL AND WILL INTERRUPT THE COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM RETURNING MUCH FARTHER NWD THAN IT IS CURRENTLY. TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN FL OVERNIGHT. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SITUATED ACROSS NRN FL AND A FEW TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS THAT IT HAS DIMINISHED GIVEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE PASSING OFF INTO THE TN VLY. FARTHER N...WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS BROUGHT UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST W.R.T SEVERE POSSIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT IN THE ERN CAROLINAS. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE ACROSS EXTREME ERN SC/NC OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THE INTERRUPTION OF MORE QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN AND RESIDUAL COOL WEDGE WILL MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER. ..RACY.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 05:36:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 00:36:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503230536.j2N5aR35004259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230534 SWODY1 SPC AC 230533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 20 S ABY 25 WSW MCN 15 SSE RMG 20 ESE CSV 30 S 5I3 ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE VRB 15 SSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 45 WNW PDT 60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 40 SW MCK 40 SW GCK 45 E TCC 30 N 4CR 50 SSW SOW 30 SSE PRC 30 NE DRA 35 NW TPH 55 SSE TVL 15 WNW MER MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 15 SE TOI 20 W GAD 50 SW BNA 30 SW EVV 25 SE HUF 25 NNW CMH 15 S MFD MGW 15 WNW MRB 40 NW ILG 20 W EWR 20 E POU 20 WNW PVD 10 NNW HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING NRN/CNTRL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE OH VLY WED WITH ASSOCIATED 80-85 KT H5 JET WRAPPING EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MID-DAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-OH VLY AT 18Z WITH A COLD FRONT SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CREST TO THE FL PNHDL. A SECOND LOW WILL FORM VCNTY KORF AND MOVE NEWD OFF DELMARVA BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE SERN COAST LATER AT NIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD...THE PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS OVER AL WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WED MORNING. AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING IN WAKE OF TUE AFTN MCS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ATTM. GIVEN VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...ANY TSTM DURING THE MORNING COULD ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET SHOULD THEN SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N AS SRN VA IN WAKE OF THE MORNING PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS. DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS H5 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL ATOP RESIDUAL UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN VA/NC WED AFTN. TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND GIVEN THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SWD EXTENT OF THE TSTM POTENTIAL INTO SC AND GA DURING THE AFTN MAY BE LIMITED BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND THE TENDENCY FOR THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AS THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SERN VA...REDUCING MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. ...NRN AND CNTRL FL... A SECONDARY REGION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF ONGOING STORMS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BEFORE 18Z GIVEN THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIFT QUICKLY NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN A BAND OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND GIVEN THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME TSTM INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL FL AT ANY TIME WED AFTN. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 12:46:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 07:46:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503231245.j2NCjSfv024514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231242 SWODY1 SPC AC 231241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PBI 45 SSE FMY ...CONT... 15 NW PIE 10 SSE DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE JAX 35 SSE VLD 30 NE MGR 45 WNW AGS 40 E CLT 30 NNW RWI ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PSK 40 E TRI 25 WSW HSS CSV 35 ESE BWG 40 SSW SDF 20 NNE LEX 15 WNW HTS 20 ESE CRW 20 NNW PSK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 45 WNW PDT 60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 40 SW MCK 40 SW GCK 45 E TCC 30 N 4CR 50 SSW SOW IGM 15 NNE DRA 45 NNE BIH 55 SSE TVL 15 WNW MER MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AQQ 25 N ABY 25 N ATL 50 SW BNA 30 SW EVV 25 SE HUF 10 W MIE 25 WSW CAK 15 NW LBE 25 ESE AOO 40 NW ILG 25 ENE PHL 15 ENE BDR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...ERN GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... 12Z SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM THE SRN CHESAPEAKE REGION SWWD INTO THE UPLANDS OF SC. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC/VA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN PLUME OF LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS REGION HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK OVERNIGHT...STRONG/DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS JUST NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE. THUS...REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...WITH PRONOUNCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN GA EWD THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SEVERE THREAT MAY ENCOMPASS MANY FACETS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS QUICKLY ENEWD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL FL... UNFORTUNATELY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FL ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS AHEAD OF ONGOING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. /REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 75 AND ITS RELATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFO./ HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. SWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY INHIBITION LAYER EVIDENT AT MIA THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. ...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/WRN VA... THOUGH REGION REMAINS WITHIN MODIFIED WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD WARMING SURFACE TODAY. EXPECT ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 13:31:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 08:31:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503231331.j2NDV13k029679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231328 SWODY1 SPC AC 231327 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PBI 45 SSE FMY ...CONT... 15 NW PIE 10 SSE DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE JAX 35 SSE VLD 30 NE MGR 45 WNW AGS 40 E CLT 30 NNW RWI ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PSK 40 E TRI 25 WSW HSS CSV 35 ESE BWG 40 SSW SDF 20 NNE LEX 15 WNW HTS 20 ESE CRW 20 NNW PSK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 45 WNW PDT 60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 40 SW MCK 40 SW GCK 45 E TCC 30 N 4CR 50 SSW SOW IGM 15 NNE DRA 45 NNE BIH 55 SSE TVL 15 WNW MER MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AQQ 25 N ABY 25 N ATL 50 SW BNA 30 SW EVV 25 SE HUF 10 W MIE 25 WSW CAK 15 NW LBE 25 ESE AOO 40 NW ILG 25 ENE PHL 15 ENE BDR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...ERN GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... 12Z SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM THE SRN CHESAPEAKE REGION SWWD INTO THE UPLANDS OF SC. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC/VA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN PLUME OF LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS REGION HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK OVERNIGHT...STRONG/DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS JUST NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE. THUS...REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...WITH PRONOUNCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN GA EWD THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SEVERE THREAT MAY ENCOMPASS MANY FACETS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS QUICKLY ENEWD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL FL... UNFORTUNATELY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FL ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS AHEAD OF ONGOING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. /REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 75 AND ITS RELATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFO./ HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. SWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY INHIBITION LAYER EVIDENT AT MIA THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. ...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/WRN VA... THOUGH REGION REMAINS WITHIN MODIFIED WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD WARMING SURFACE TODAY. EXPECT ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 16:36:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 11:36:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503231635.j2NGZbwW024987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231632 SWODY1 SPC AC 231631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRE 30 ENE FLO 40 ESE CLT 20 SSW GSO DAN 50 SW RIC 40 SSW WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SSU 10 NW PSK 40 ESE TRI 15 W HSS 10 NNW TYS 25 NW LOZ 25 ESE LEX 40 WSW HTS 20 NW CRW 30 ENE CRW 30 NNW SSU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW FMY 15 NNE AGR 10 ENE MLB ...CONT... PBI 55 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TLH 50 ENE ABY 15 SE AND 40 ENE CHA 45 ENE BWG 15 ENE SDF 25 SSE CMH 30 SSW HLG 10 NW MGW 30 W MRB 35 W DCA 15 SSE BWI 15 N ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 65 SW PDT 70 E BKE 40 W SUN 25 WNW PIH 30 NNW WRL 65 SSE 81V 30 WSW MHN 10 ENE LNK 45 N STJ 15 SW SZL 50 N JLN 30 WSW EMP 40 ENE DDC 10 WSW LBL 35 SSW CAO 30 N 4CR 45 ESE SOW 40 SSW GCN 50 ENE LAS 20 ESE DRA 35 SW DRA 55 NNE NID 50 SSE BIH 30 SW BIH 30 N FAT MER 10 SW SCK 50 WNW SAC 55 W RBL ACV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN TN/KY TO WV.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NC/EXTREME SRN VA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL.... ...CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD CLEAR FROM W TO E FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE INVOF THE WEAK LOW NOW BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN N CENTRAL NC...AND IMMEDIATELY S OF THIS LOW ALONG THE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F...WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN KY/WV TODAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING FROM ERN TN NWD ACROSS ERN KY INTO SW WV. CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KY AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND SBCAPE INCREASES TO 500-1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR E OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER STORMS /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE MINI SUPERCELLS/. ...CENTRAL/S FL TODAY... A SHORT PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. SURFACE HEATING IMMEDIATELY E/SE OF THESE STORMS IS BEING LIMITED BY HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS...THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS S FL ARE DESTABILIZING QUICKLY PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WIDESPREAD CUMULUS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. WHILE THE COMBINATION OF SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/HAIL THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WELL N OF THIS AREA. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 19:57:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 14:57:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503231956.j2NJuoeo016059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231953 SWODY1 SPC AC 231952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ILM 40 WNW ILM FAY 10 NW SOP CLT 10 ESE HSS 25 WSW TRI 35 E 5I3 15 SSE CRW 35 NNW SSU 15 NNE SSU LYH RIC 35 SSW WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PBI 30 WNW MIA 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 W FMY 30 S AGR 15 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 45 N SAV AGS AND 65 ESE CHA CHA BWG 10 NE SDF 20 S CMH 30 SSW HLG 10 NW MGW 30 W MRB 35 W DCA 15 SSE BWI 15 N ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 50 SSE SEA YKM ALW 10 WNW S80 60 SSE S80 15 ESE BOI 60 W OWY WMC 60 ENE U31 ELY ENV MLD RIW DGW AIA LNK 45 N STJ SZL 50 N JLN 30 WSW EMP 40 ENE DDC LBL CAO LVS 10 SSE GNT INW 55 N IGM NID 30 SW BIH MER 50 WNW SAC 55 W RBL ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SRQ 30 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL.... ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... AT MID AFTERNOON...SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS RAPIDLY SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE OUTER BANKS AREA WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SHORTLY. A LINGERING CONVECTIVE THREAT REMAINS...THOUGH. MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING. LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE CURVING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/ISOLATED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...FLORIDA... DAYTIME HEATING IN MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH...IS PROVIDED BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH PERSISTS OFF THE GULF COAST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF FORT MEYERS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND MAY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE... AND INCREASING INHIBITION TOWARD NIGHTFALL. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AND WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AT BASE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE BASED AROUND 700 MB...WHERE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT MAY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE KANSAS/ NEBRASKA BORDER. ...WESTERN STATES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO... BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON/NORTHWEST NEVADA/PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AHEAD OF CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEATING/OROGRAPHY...BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...ALONG/NORTH OF STRONG BROADLY CYCLONIC SOUTHERN BRANCH JET. ..KERR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 00:50:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 19:50:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503240050.j2O0oHD9000337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240047 SWODY1 SPC AC 240045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HSE 20 ESE GSB 15 NNW GSB 35 N RWI 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SRQ 30 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRE 35 ESE CLT 40 NE HKY 20 NNE ROA 45 SW DCA 15 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 15 W DLS 75 NNW BNO 40 SSW BKE 40 S BOI OWY 10 WNW EKO 60 N ELY 25 SE ENV MLD RIW DGW 25 W BBW 25 WNW FNB FLV 45 S OJC 55 ESE ICT 30 SSW LBL 20 SSW LVS 30 W GNT FLG 45 NNW EED 40 NNW NID 10 NE MER 40 WSW SAC 45 S EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF ERN NC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... WELL FOCUSED EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SPREADING ACROSS VA/NC ATTM...PER RAPIDLY ADVANCING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FORCING...EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY HAVE WEAKENED...APPARENTLY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE TRAVERSING EWD ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARY THAT HAS DROPPED INTO NRN NC. STRONG STORMS MAY YET EVOLVE ALONG THIS ZONE BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IT SEEMS LIKELY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUB SEVERE THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY... LOW TOPPED...POSSIBLE SUPERCELL...HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEHAMA COUNTY IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND IS DRIFTING SSEWD MAXIMIZING INFLOW/HAIL THREAT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NE OF THIS STORM AND WILL SOON DRIFT DOWN THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN VERY STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM...WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING PROFILE WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINED...IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN ROBUST ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT BEFORE COOLING STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DARROW.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 05:45:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 00:45:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503240545.j2O5j2i8013351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240542 SWODY1 SPC AC 240540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW DUA 40 NNE ADM 20 SSW END 30 SSE P28 15 E HUT 45 SW OJC 30 WSW JEF 20 WNW MDH 35 SE PAH 30 NNW TUP 30 SE GLH 35 SSE ELD 35 SSW PRX 10 WSW DUA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 40 SE 27U 15 SW JAC 20 WNW RWL 40 SE SNY 50 NNE HLC 30 N CNK 45 NE FNB 10 SW OTM 25 W PIA 10 E CMI 25 ESE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 30 SSE JAN 40 NW BTR 35 SE LFK 55 SW TYR 15 SSE FTW 30 ESE FSI 20 NE LTS 25 SW AMA 15 SE SAF 50 N INW 20 ESE LAS 55 N NID SAC ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW MOB 45 S SEM 35 ENE TOI 10 ENE ABY 25 NNW CTY 10 SW GNV 15 N DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY FROM SERN KS/ERN OK INTO SRN MO/AR... ...SRN PLAINS/MID-LOWER MS VALLEY... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO...IN LINE WITH EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 25/00Z. MODIFIED WRN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS NOW RETURNING NWWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND EVEN NEAR 60 ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. SUSTAINED ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW LOWER 50S DEW POINTS TO RETURN TO ERN OK BY PEAK HEATING AS COLD UPPER TROUGH...H5 TEMPS LESS THAN MINUS 20C...MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO HEAT RAPIDLY OVER THE PLAINS WEST OF I-35 ACROSS OK/TX. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EVOLVE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ACROSS OK...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN INTO ECNTRL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND A SLOWLY VEERING LLJ ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION FAVOR AN EWD...UPWARD EVOLVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EASILY SPREAD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL...POSSIBLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...FL... QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS SRN FL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARMER WATERS. WITH TIME THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY FOCUS A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY CONVERGENCE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ATTAINED A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE ADDED ACROSS THIS REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION INTO THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW MUCH HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THIS REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASING ASCENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INFLUENCE OF FLATTENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE TN VALLEY. SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS THIS REGION IF THEY DEVELOP. ..DARROW.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 14:01:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 09:01:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503241400.j2OE0sVU025654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241358 SWODY1 SPC AC 241357 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PRX 30 SW DUA 10 SW OKC 35 N END 50 W CNU 10 ESE TBN 20 W POF 15 SSW JBR 35 WNW LIT 40 ESE PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW MOB 45 S SEM 35 ENE TOI 10 ENE ABY 25 SSW VLD 25 NNW GNV 15 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 40 SE 27U 15 SW JAC 20 WNW RWL 40 SE SNY 50 NNE HLC 30 N CNK 45 NE FNB 10 SW OTM 25 W PIA 10 E CMI 25 ESE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 30 SSE JAN 40 NW BTR 35 SE LFK 15 NE ACT 35 S FTW 30 ESE FSI 25 NNW CDS 45 E ROW 40 SSW 4CR 75 SSW GNT 35 WNW IGM 55 N NID SAC ACV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR... ...RETRANSMITTED... ...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARKS... FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AS LARGER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BROAD ZONE OF FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH 100+ KT H25 JET DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN TX/FAR SRN OK TODAY...BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE STEADILY SSEWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX BY LATE TODAY. A SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER OK LATER TODAY ALONG INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE/TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX /ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR/. THOUGH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETTING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE SRN PLAINS...THIS SYSTEM COMES QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF SYSTEM EARLIER THIS WEEK. RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEW POINTS /NOW CONFINED OVER SERN TX/ RAPIDLY NWD INTO ERN OK TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UNDER COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -20C AT H5/. RATHER HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG DRY LINE AFTER 21Z OVER CENTRAL OK AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...POSSIBLY AS LP-SUPERCELLS. HAVE PULLED LOW PROBABILITIES SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL TX AS A CONDITIONAL THREAT...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN CAP OVER THIS AREA AND FAIL TO GENERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED TONIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME EAST OF THE DRY LINE INTO SRN MO/WRN AR THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR WELL AFTER DARK. FEED OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAINTAIN LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL INTO THE LATE NIGHT ALONG SWRN PORTION OF DEVELOPING MCS. ...FL... THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE IN TWO MODES DURING THE PERIOD...1) WITH ANY AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL AND 2) WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INTO NRN FL AND THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN MODEST ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE/SEA BREEZES AND NEAR QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALSO WARRANT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO NRN FL LATER TONIGHT ALONG 30 KT SWLY LLJ. LATER STORMS WILL HAVE PRIMARY THREAT OF SOME HAIL AS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 16:33:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 11:33:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503241632.j2OGWmqV023831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241630 SWODY1 SPC AC 241629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TXK 30 SW DUA 20 ESE OKC 20 WNW PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE VIH 20 SW CGI 35 NNE MEM 20 SW LIT 20 W TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 25 SSW RSL 30 NW MHK 30 ENE FNB 25 E IRK 20 W SPI 15 ENE MTO 30 S BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 25 ENE SEP 30 ESE SPS 10 S CSM 40 SW GAG 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W SAC OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 35 N CEW 20 ENE DHN 20 SSE ABY 10 ESE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN OK/SE KS...CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SRN MO AND WRN/NRN AR.... ...OK/NW AR/SW MO AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF NW OK/EXTREME SW KS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD TO NRN OK TODAY...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVER NRN AR/SRN MO BY LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NM AND FAR W TX. IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF...WITH THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS CONFINED TO AREAS S OF ABOUT 25 N. FARTHER N...A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS TX...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST...AND LOWER 50S INTO N CENTRAL TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO OK THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN CENTRAL OK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL OK INVOF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT...WITH STORMS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE SPREADING EWD INTO E/NE OK...SW MO...AND WRN AR TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AT BEST MODEST INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUCH THREAT. ...NE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT... MUCH OF FL IS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS AS OF LATE MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS FL AND TO THE NE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE PRONOUNCED WAA REGIME. INSTABILITY BASED NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 19:57:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 14:57:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503241956.j2OJugHu013540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241953 SWODY1 SPC AC 241951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TXK 30 SW DUA 20 ESE OKC PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE VIH 20 SW CGI 35 NNE MEM 20 SW LIT 20 W TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 30 SSW HSI 25 SE OLU 40 NE OMA 20 ESE MLI 20 ENE BMI 25 S DNV 15 SSE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 25 ENE SEP 30 ESE SPS 10 S CSM 40 SW GAG 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W SAC OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 35 N CEW 20 ENE DHN 20 SSE ABY 10 ESE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR... ...CNTRL/ERN OK EWD INTO AR/SRN MO... EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN OK WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX /E OF ABI/ AND WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH E-CNTRL OK AND SRN AR. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...DIABATIC HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING E OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH WRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT CAP REMOVAL FOR STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL OR ERN OK. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS OVER SWRN MO INTO NERN OK MAY BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/MOISTENS WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. GIVEN WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON LATEST REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS THAT LIMITED MOISTURE/RELATIVELY HIGH LFC HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR A COMPLEX TONIGHT OVER SRN MO/NRN AR ALONG EWD-MIGRATING LLJ AXIS. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME ATOP DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 0376. ...FL... AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WELL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE OVER THE LOWER ERN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FROM SE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO N OF FMY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S S OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND W OF SEA BREEZE HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WITH A WEAK CAP. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT NWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO SRN GA WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. NWD RECOVERY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS COUPLED WITH THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ..MEAD.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 00:42:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 19:42:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503250042.j2P0g1Ng014008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250039 SWODY1 SPC AC 250037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TXK 50 SSW PRX 30 SW DUA 45 ESE OKC 35 NNE OKC PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE VIH 20 SW CGI 35 NNE MEM 20 SW LIT 20 W TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 50 NW CEW 35 E TOI 40 NE MGR 10 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS 55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 30 SSW HSI 25 SE OLU 40 NE OMA 20 ESE MLI 20 ENE BMI 25 S DNV 15 SSE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA 20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 15 ESE MWL 35 WSW ADM 25 NNW FSI 65 E AMA 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W SAC OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/ERN OK INTO SRN MO AND AR... ...ERN OK TO NERN AR... CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OK. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME HAS SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOIST SECTOR WHERE CONVECTION IS NOW DEEPENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM FWD AND OUN STRONGLY SUPPORT THESE TRENDS. LOCAL ALGORITHMS SUGGEST MOST SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL DIFFICULTY GENERATING HAIL WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION. ALTHOUGH CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BOTH ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT NW OF OKC...AND ACROSS SCNTRL OK AHEAD OF DRYLINE...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL OK INTO NRN AR. IN THE SHORT TERM...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ...FL... WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA. WITH TIME WARM ADVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING MARITIME AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THIS REGION. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIALLY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 06:13:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 01:13:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503250613.j2P6DFes026361@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250610 SWODY1 SPC AC 250608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LFK 20 WNW AUS 45 SW BWD 30 NNE ABI 20 SW SPS 20 SSE ADM 35 SSW PGO 45 NNW HOT 25 W UNO 60 SE VIH 40 WSW EVV 45 W LOZ 15 N TYS 40 ESE CHA 20 SE HSV 45 W CBM 35 S MLU 45 SW LFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PNS 25 WSW PNS 40 N CEW 35 SSW CSG 35 SE MCN 40 ENE SAV ...CONT... 15 SSW FMY 35 N PBI 15 SSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 55 SSW JCT 10 ESE MAF 45 NNW HOB 45 NE SAD 10 NNW PHX 30 SSE LAS 40 N U31 65 WSW BOI 15 E S80 20 WNW DLN 25 ENE RWL 35 S LIC 35 SSW GAG 35 ENE FSI 30 NNW MLC 45 SSW JLN 50 SW SZL 35 S IRK 20 SW SPI 35 SSE BMG 30 N JKL SSU 35 WNW RIC 10 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB 40 ESE MEI 25 NW MEI 30 W JAN 10 SSW ESF 35 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY...SWWD INTO NRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL INTO SRN GA... ...MID MS/TN VALLEY... LATE DAY1 CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS TRANSLATED INTO EXTREME ERN OK/NWRN AR/SWRN MO AHEAD OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH FAST WLY FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW WITH STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THEN REINTENSIFY ALONG E-W BOUNDARY AS DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES BAROCLINIC ZONE. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM IN LOWEST 3 KM...WILL FAVOR QUICK MOVING BOW-TYPE FEATURES FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL SEEMS A GOOD BET GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ...TX... FARTHER SW ACROSS TX...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ATOP RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AFTER DARK IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM. MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE OF HIGHER QUALITY THAN EARLIER SYSTEMS THE LAST FEW DAYS. PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850 MB SHOULD EASILY YIELD CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER/MCS INTO NERN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH THE SRN STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS LLJ VEERS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE. 06Z RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INLAND WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LEADING ELEVATED ACTIVITY...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS RISE THE PROSPECTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES BECOMES A GREATER RISK. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 16:33:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 11:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503251632.j2PGWs4I013194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251630 SWODY1 SPC AC 251628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE PFN 40 SSW ABY 15 ESE ABY 50 SE MCN 50 WNW SAV 25 SSE CHS ...CONT... 15 SSW FMY 20 S PBI 15 SSW FMY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW LFK 25 SSE JCT 10 SSW SJT 45 ENE BGS 25 S SPS 25 NNW PRX 30 ESE PGO 60 NW LIT 45 S UNO 10 ENE POF 20 N OWB 10 WSW JKL 10 NE HSS 40 ESE CHA 20 SE HSV 25 SW UOX 40 SW MLU 40 WSW LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 40 SW HDO 70 SSW SJT MAF 35 NNE CNM 45 NE SAD 10 NNW PHX 25 ENE LAS 40 N U31 65 WSW BOI 15 E S80 20 WNW DLN 25 ENE RWL 35 ENE DEN 40 NE LAA 45 S DDC 15 NE OKC 20 WSW MKO 10 W HRO 15 E VIH 10 NE ALN 25 SW MTO 35 ESE BMG 40 WSW HTS 15 WSW SSU 45 W RIC 40 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL AND SERN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TN VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS PORTION OF MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG TROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DROPS SEWD WITH UPPER LOW OVER NM AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS TX/OK BY 12Z SAT. DOWNSTREAM STRONG WLYS EXTEND EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY AND TO SE COAST. FLAT MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN WLYS MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO OFF CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD VICINITY TN/KY BORDER THEN SWWD THRU NWRN AR/SERN OK INTO SWRN TX. LITTLE PUSH ON FRONT E OF MS RIVER WITH SWD MOTION W OF THE RIVER. TX PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SCENTRAL TX AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THE VERY RICH GULF AIRMASS RESIDES TO S OF ACTIVE CONVECTION SRN GA/NRN FL WWD JUST OFF GULF COAST INTO S TX. ...SERN STATES... ONGOING SEVERE STORMS NRN FL/SERN GA WILL CONTINUE AND DEVELOP GRADUALLY SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WHERE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS AVAILABLE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND HELICITY WITH THE 40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND 25-30 KT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF A SUPERCELL THREAT. WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG AS WARM SECTOR TEMPS S OF BOUNDARY IN FL CLIMB INTO THE 80S...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED SHEAR IN VAD DATA. MOST ACTIVE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. ...TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TX... STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY AS TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IN TN VALLEY PORTION OF RISK AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ALSO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL E OF TN VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG HEATING VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT IN MUCAPES RISING TO 1000 J/KG WHICH WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER/UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 7C/KM LAPSE RATES., THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM CENTRAL TX EWD INTO NRN LA/AR S OF FRONTAL ZONE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL/ERN TX WITH THE STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING AVAILABILITY OF GULF MOISTURE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR UNDER THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO THE BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NERN TX BY THIS EVENING WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. ..HALES/GUYER.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 00:57:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 19:57:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503260056.j2Q0uwWF010232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260054 SWODY1 SPC AC 260052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GLH 45 SW GLH 55 ENE LFK 20 ENE CLL 35 N SAT 25 N DRT 65 SSE MAF 50 E BGS 35 SSE SPS 40 S MLC 45 N HOT 50 NNE LIT 40 W MEM 30 NE GLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PNS 20 WNW PNS 45 NNW CEW 10 SE TOI 15 NE ABY 10 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CHS 20 SSW AND 20 NE BHM 10 WNW MEI 30 ENE MCB 45 WSW HUM ...CONT... 20 SSW PSX 45 SW HDO 45 ESE P07 25 SE INK 40 NW CNM 45 NE SAD 40 E PHX PRC 35 W GCN 35 ESE MLF 50 NNW PUC 40 SSW RKS 45 WSW LAR 35 ENE DEN 40 NE LAA 45 S DDC 15 NE OKC 20 WSW MKO 10 W HRO 40 NNW POF 20 S MVN 25 N EVV 30 NE SDF 20 WNW HTS 30 NNW SSU 25 SE CHO 40 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO AR... ...TX TO AR... WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TX PER RECENT INCREASE/EXPANSION OF CONVECTION NORTH OF JCT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRT SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TX PER CAPPING LAYER NEAR 850 MB. AS A RESULT...LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL PROVE MORE EFFICIENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. LIFTING PARCELS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS AN EXPANDING CLUSTER EVOLVES INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NERN TX. ...FL... SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN PORTIONS OF FL THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PROVE SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN WARM ADVECTION COULD PROVE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. VERY MOIST PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION THUS MINIMAL ASCENT/CONVERGENCE WILL BE REQUIRED TO AID TSTM POTENTIAL ONCE UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 05:53:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 00:53:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503260552.j2Q5qnKF030109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260550 SWODY1 SPC AC 260549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW GLS 40 ESE CLL 20 WNW LFK 45 SSE SHV 15 W MLU 40 NW GWO 10 WSW TUP 25 SE ATL 55 SSW AGS 10 NNE AYS 15 W CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S VCT 10 NNE SAT 50 ENE JCT 10 SSE SEP 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 35 NNE GUP 30 NNW CEZ 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 10 SW PUB 35 SSW DHT 35 WSW CDS 35 SW SPS 20 NNW PRX 10 WSW LIT 25 ESE JBR 35 ESE PAH 15 NE SDF 30 SSW PKB 50 NNW SSU 15 SSE SSU 25 S PSK 30 W RDU 30 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM CNTRL TX TO THE SC COAST... ***A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES*** ...GULF STATES... MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS POISED TO SURGE INLAND AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL INITIALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK BUT CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER SPEED MAX...APPROACHING 100KT...WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TX...THEN EJECT NEWD INTO LA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER LA/MS AFTER 27/00Z AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS LIFTS NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG EXIT REGION. IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. 00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BROADENING ZONE OF INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE REAL ESTATE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS EXPECTED ASCENT...DETAILS AND TIMING OF INITIATION ARE MORE NEBULOUS. REGARDLESS...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MAY POTENTIALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SIGNAL IN THIS EVENINGS DATA IS THE EXPECTED TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG EJECTING UPPER SPEED MAX...LLJ SHOULD INCREASE AND FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SEVERE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...WHEN THE ASCENT REGION SPREADS ACROSS TX INTO LA RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF SFC LOW WILL DICTATE THE NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY REGION. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 12:59:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 07:59:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503261258.j2QCwRbS009623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261256 SWODY1 SPC AC 261254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW GLS 40 ESE CLL 20 WNW LFK 40 SSW SHV 40 S ELD 40 NW GWO 45 NNE TUP 15 E HSV 40 S ANB 30 SSE CSG 55 WNW AYS 15 SE VLD 30 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 50 S AUS 35 NW HDO 60 N DRT 45 SSW ABI 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 40 N GUP 30 NNW CEZ 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 10 SW PUB 35 SSW DHT 35 WSW CDS 20 NNE SPS 50 N HOT 30 W HOP 15 NE SDF 30 SSW PKB 50 NNW SSU 15 SSE SSU 25 S PSK 30 W RDU 30 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EAST TX...LA...MS...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...GULF COAST REGION...AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS TX TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF TX/LA/MS AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW...ALONG WITH INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...TX THIS MORNING... LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOW OVER TX WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SPREAD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. ...FL/GA/SC THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... EASTERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS FL AND INTO PARTS OF AL/GA/SC DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH OF TLH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST STATES... SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...AND THE GULF COAST STATES. RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS LIKELY SOUTH OF FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS LIKELY TO BE THE INITIATION POINT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND EVENTUALLY AL. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A LARGE SHIELD OF THUNDERSTORMS /ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/ LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC AND NORTH FL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT... OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND 90-100 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION. ..HART/BANACOS.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 17:13:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 12:13:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503261712.j2QHCXSp029826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261710 SWODY1 SPC AC 261708 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW GLS 40 ESE CLL 35 NW LFK 15 S ELD 50 NNW GWO 45 S MKL 15 E HSV 35 NW AUO 25 SSE CSG 55 WNW AYS 15 SE VLD 30 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 45 NNW NIR 25 WNW HDO 50 N DRT 45 SSW ABI 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 40 SW GNT 35 ENE 4BL 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 25 SW PUB 55 NNW TCC 55 ENE CVS 30 E PVW 20 NNE SPS 20 NNW FSM 20 ESE PAH 25 S SDF 25 ENE LEX 25 ESE HTS 10 SW BKW 45 SSW PSK 30 W RDU 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ERN TX...MUCH OF LA...EXTREME SERN AR...MUCH OF MS AND AL...FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX EWD ACROSS LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TO THE SERN STATES... ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SERN AR...MS...AL...FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING PER WV IMAGERY WILL TRACK ESEWD TOWARD WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AMPLIFY/DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND CENTRAL TX WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ONGOING AND NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SERN STATES WWD INTO TX. ADDITIONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /90-120 METERS PER 12 HOURS/ WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SPREAD EWD. ...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS A LITTLE FARTHER WNWWD. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW OVER SE TX BY 21Z WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...POTENTIAL REACHING SERN AL/SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE GIVEN THAT THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL NOSE INTO THIS AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TX COAST AND OVER SRN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE....WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL TX. AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO SLY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND LEAD TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE WARM FRONT AND RICH GULF MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG EXPECTED FROM LA EWD TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 35 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF TX...EXCLUDING DEEP S TX WHERE A CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN FLANK...GENERALLY ESE OF SAT/AUS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE GREATER SBCAPE IS EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS TX...REACHING LA TO THE NWRN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TROUGH AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FL INTO THE SERN STATES. SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THREATS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AL/SWRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 19:55:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 14:55:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503261954.j2QJsTGo006148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261951 SWODY1 SPC AC 261950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GLS 50 ENE LFK 45 E SHV 30 NW MLU 35 SW UOX 35 WSW MSL 25 S HSV 30 WNW LGC 25 SSE CSG 15 SE ABY 35 E TLH 30 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 20 SSW PSX 50 S CLL 60 NE CLL 15 ENE GGG 30 SSE TXK 30 NW ELD 30 WSW PBF 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP 40 SW GNT 35 ENE 4BL 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 25 SW PUB 55 NNW TCC 55 ENE CVS 30 E PVW 20 NNE SPS 20 NNW FSM 20 ESE PAH 25 S SDF 25 ENE LEX 25 ESE HTS 10 SW BKW 45 SSW PSK 30 W RDU 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... 50 NNE BRO 30 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM FAR SERN TX EWD ACROSS LA AND PORTIONS OF MS...AL...GA AND FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS LA...MS...AL INTO SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL... ...E TX ACROSS GULF COAST INTO SERN CONUS... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z LIX SOUNDING INDICATE THAT INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD FROM SERN TX/SRN LA EWD INTO SRN GA. LATEST TENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA AS WELL AS SHORT-TERM RUC/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD WITH TIME ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT NWD INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LA...MS AND AL. REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE MARKEDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE SERN TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MS DELTA REGION. APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL OCCUR ALONG/E OF THIS LOW TRACK TONIGHT FROM SRN/CNTRL LA INTO SRN/CNTRL MS. ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY EWD ALONG WARM FRONT WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA REGIME FROM SRN/CNTRL AL INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP N OF WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS TN VALLEY...NEWD INTO NRN GA/SC. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG THE GULF COAST...PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 400. ...NM INTO FAR WRN TX... DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HAIL THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 399. ..MEAD.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 01:08:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 20:08:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503270107.j2R17jSI003229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270106 SWODY1 SPC AC 270104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 40 NW BTR 50 E MLU 20 WSW GWO 30 NE TUP 20 SSW HSV 10 SW LGC 15 SE ABY 25 SE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DAB 10 WNW PIE ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 25 ENE MLU 15 NNE MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 25 SSW AVL 15 N CAE 20 E CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 35 NE DMN 45 N GNT 15 WNW DRO 50 SSE MTJ 20 W ALS 45 NNW LVS 40 ENE 4CR 30 NE HOB 30 E PVW 25 S OKC 30 SW EVV 30 WSW BLF 20 WSW GSO 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... 50 NNE BRO 30 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA...MUCH OF MS AND AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION... ...LOWER MS VALLEY / CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST STATES... FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODE UNDERWAY ATTM FROM LA / MS EWD INTO GA / THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES / SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW IS NOW INDICATED OVER SWRN MS / ERN LA...WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM / MOIST GULF AIR NWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION ON SLY / SELY WINDS. DEGREE OF MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MARGINALLY- TO MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACH FROM THE W. AS A RESULT...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS MS / AL -- AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO NRN MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THIS REGION IN PARTICULAR...A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND / TORNADO EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER E...A LOWER-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END 0F THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 06:13:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 01:13:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503270612.j2R6CSF2019035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270610 SWODY1 SPC AC 270606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS TCL 35 ENE TUP 40 NNW MSL 35 E BNA 10 ESE LOZ 30 SSE 5I3 25 ESE TRI 40 ENE HKY 20 WNW SOP 20 SSW FAY 25 ENE ILM ...CONT... 10 ENE JAX 20 SSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE GPT 50 N MEI 35 ENE MEM 45 SE PAH 20 ESE OWB 25 WNW LEX 45 E LUK 25 S UNI 15 WSW BKW 15 SW ROA 45 SSE CHO 40 S WAL ...CONT... 10 ESE MLB 30 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 ENE LFK 20 SSW GGG 40 E PRX 20 SSE UNO 15 E MVN 45 SSE MIE 30 WSW LBE 25 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW FCA 35 ESE 3TH 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AL...PARTS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN...SERN KY...SRN NC...CD...GA...AND NRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST / TN VALLEY / MID AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH / DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM TX / OK EWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WITH TIME...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INCLUDING 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER NRN MS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN BY MIDDAY...AND THEN SHOULD DEEPEN / MOVE NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. COMBINATION OF WARM / MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ...SOUTHEAST / MID SOUTH REGION TO THE MID / SRN ATLANTIC COAST... WIDESPREAD STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL / GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...WITH WEAKER CONVECTION SPREADING AS FAR NEWD AS THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING ACROSS MS NEAR COLD FRONT / WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SHOULD ALLOW STORMS OVER MS TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS AL / MIDDLE TN...ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDIRECTIONAL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG / DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...COMBINATION OF WEAK VEERING AND RAPIDLY-INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES -- BOTH WITHIN SQUALL LINE AND WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD INTO GA AND ACROSS ERN TN / SERN KY WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EVENING -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ..GOSS.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 12:23:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 07:23:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503271222.j2RCMVZf023727@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271219 SWODY1 SPC AC 271217 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 ESE LUL 15 SSW MEI 15 W CBM 35 NNE TUP 60 WSW BNA 40 SE BWG 40 NNW CSV 40 SSW LOZ 35 E TYS 10 NW AVL 15 W CLT 30 WNW FLO 30 N CHS 40 WSW CHS 25 WNW SAV 35 NNW AYS VLD 30 SSE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GPT 30 NE MSY 20 SE MCB 45 W JAN 25 ESE GLH 25 ENE MEM 45 NE MKL 20 SE SDF 55 SE LUK 10 SE HTS 30 W BLF 30 SSW BLF 35 S PSK 40 NNE RDU 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 ENE LFK 20 SSW GGG 40 E PRX 20 SSE UNO 15 E MVN 45 SSE MIE 30 WSW LBE 25 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW FCA 35 ESE 3TH 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM MS TO SERN KY MUCH OF NC ERN SC AND MUCH OF FL... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...TN VALLEY...AND CAROLINAS TODAY... ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER TX. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND LARGE AREA OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM MS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. ...LA/AR/MS/TN THIS MORNING... LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UPPER FORCING IS NOW OVER CENTRAL LA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS AXIS OVERNIGHT /REF WW 95/. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AR/EASTERN LA/WESTERN MS. THIS AREA IS POST-FRONTAL...WITH HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY LATE MORNING...WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. ...AL/GA/FL THIS MORNING... LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF GA AND SOUTHEAST AL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS /REF WW 96/. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MS/AL/GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PARTS OF MS AND AL WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG BENEATH 70-90 KNOT 500MB FLOW. COMBINATION OF AMPLE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FROM EASTERN MS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL INTO GA AND WESTERN SC. PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN ALSO APPEAR TO BE AT GREATER RISK AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF LINE...POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN...AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA/SC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ...CAROLINAS TONIGHT... LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER DARK TONIGHT. DESPITE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA...VERY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS INTO NC AFTER 06Z. ...FL TONIGHT... TAIL END OF SQUALL LINE SHOULD SWEEP INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL TONIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..CARBIN/HART/BANACOS.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 16:41:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 11:41:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503271640.j2RGetLR028946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271632 SWODY1 SPC AC 271631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MOB 60 NNE MOB 40 SW TCL 30 ENE CBM 15 WSW MSL 40 NNE MSL 25 SE BNA 20 WNW CSV 40 SE CSV 20 ESE RMG 25 WSW AHN 10 N AGS 50 NNE SAV 30 ENE SAV 20 NE SSI 30 E VLD 35 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT 30 SSE LUL 45 SW CBM 35 SSE MKL 40 NE MKL 30 SE SDF 55 W HTS 10 SE HTS 25 NW BLF 35 NNW GSO 30 NNE RDU 25 SE ORF ...CONT... MLB 15 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 20 SE S06 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BVE 45 SE MCB 25 NNE MCB 40 N HEZ 15 NW MLU 40 N ELD 25 NW LIT 20 WNW POF 15 SW MVN 40 SSE MIE 30 N MGW 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN SWD ACROSS AL AND GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER E TX WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL/GA BY TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...THE SURFACE LOW INVOF NW AL WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN TO ERN KY BY LATE TONIGHT. ONLY SLOW EWD MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM MS INTO WRN AL...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT ACROSS AL/GA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE STATES. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS MORNING...AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS AL/GA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS AL...BUT CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST NWD INTO CENTRAL AL...WHERE 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE VERY MOIST AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. THIS EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES MAY CONFINE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT TO SE AL AND SRN/CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER N ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE SURFACE LOW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL TEND TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE NERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS IN QUESTION GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING BAND OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAS REINFORCED THE WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE PIEDMONT...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MERGED WITH THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COMBINED BOUNDARY. STILL...A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR AND ABOVE THE GROUND SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS N GA. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 19:55:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 14:55:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503271954.j2RJsYbe007475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271952 SWODY1 SPC AC 271950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MOB 65 NNE MOB 30 SSW TCL 50 S MSL 20 NE MSL 45 S BNA 35 WNW CSV 25 ENE CSV 15 SW TYS 45 ENE RMG 25 WNW AHN 10 N AGS 50 NNE SAV 30 ENE SAV 20 NE SSI 30 E VLD 35 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 35 S MOB 40 SE MEI 20 NNE CBM 35 WNW MSL 15 SW CKV 30 SE SDF 55 W HTS 10 SE HTS 25 NW BLF 35 NNW GSO 30 NNE RDU 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 20 SE S06 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE GPT 40 N GPT 35 W LUL 45 NNE HEZ 40 ENE MLU 25 SE PBF 40 SSW JBR 30 E POF 35 SE MVN 40 SSE MIE 30 N MGW 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF AL/TN EWD ACROSS MUCH OF GA...NRN FL AND SRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST/ERN TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS MS INTO AL. LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS APPEAR TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS AS MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER NWRN AL /N OF TCL/. MAIN WARM FRONT /LIKELY DELINEATING EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW/ EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND INTO ERN KY...WHILE COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OR VERY SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS WRN AL. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SERN/E-CNTRL AL INTO GA HAS REINFORCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR MGM ESEWD THROUGH ABY TO AYS. THUS...SYSTEM WARM SECTOR CURRENTLY IS LIMITED TO AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL AL SWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...THEN BROADENING CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SRN AL...FAR SRN GA AND FL. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR THE AL/TN...TO 1500 J/KG OVER THE FL PNHDL /REF 18Z BHM SOUNDING/. ...MIDDLE TN/AL EWD ACROSS GA...NRN FL INTO SC... PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD MORE RAPIDLY TONIGHT. BROAD AREA OF SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 M/S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SUPERCELLS FROM THE NERN GULF TO N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEDGE FRONT. SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT FOR A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE/ FROM SRN/CNTRL AL EWD INTO SRN/CNTRL GA AND POSSIBLY SRN SC LATE TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD 418. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM NRN AL INTO ERN TN. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /ESPECIALLY E/NE OF SURFACE LOW TRACK/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE SRN INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...TO N OF RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEDGE FRONT. STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 01:19:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 20:19:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503280118.j2S1IaQQ003385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280116 SWODY1 SPC AC 280114 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 10 SSW PNS 15 ESE SEM 55 NNW MSL 20 SW HOP 35 SSE SDF 15 SSE 5I3 20 ENE HSS 25 E CLT 25 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE GPT 40 NE MOB 15 WNW SEM 30 SSW MSL 15 NNE GLH 20 E PBF 40 SSW JBR 30 E POF 35 SE MVN 40 SSE MIE 30 N MGW 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 20 SE S06 55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SERN CONUS... THREAT FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SWRN GA / N FL. STRONG UPPER TROUGH / LOW NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS MID / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD...ACCOMPANIED BY 110 KT JET STREAK. WITH MOIST / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE S OF SLOWLY-RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN GA AND VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHIFTING ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT /NOW OVER CENTRAL MS/ WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. LESSER SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS ERN AL / TN / SRN KY...AND MAY SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME ACROSS SC AND INTO NC...THOUGH COOL / STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITHIN REMNANT COLD-AIR DAMMING REGIME SHOULD BE SLOW TO RETREAT...THUS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY AT LOW LEVELS. ..GOSS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 05:50:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 00:50:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503280550.j2S5o7LL028601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280548 SWODY1 SPC AC 280546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ILM 20 SSW RDU 10 NE DAN 15 ENE LYH 20 ENE CHO 10 SSW BWI 10 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SRQ 35 NNW DAB ...CONT... 35 NNE SSI 15 NW AGS 60 WNW AND CSV 35 ENE SDF 20 SE DAY 30 NNW ZZV 25 N PIT 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MSO 25 W BZN 25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 45 WNW BIS 45 SE REJ 25 SSE GCC 30 W LND 25 SE VEL 35 NNW 4BL 35 SSW PGA 40 WNW IGM 40 SSW DRA 20 NNW BFL 10 NNW SCK 25 ENE RBL 50 NW BNO 20 WSW LWS 10 WSW MSO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN VA / ERN NC AND THE DELMARVA REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE TN VALLEY -- WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY...AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP E OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER INLAND VA / NC DURING THE DAY...AND THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EWD / OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDNIGHT. WITH WARM FRONT FORECAST TO BE MOVING NWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND COLD FRONT MOVING EWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...A NARROW WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN INLAND ACROSS ERN NC / ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...ERN VA / ERN NC / THE DELMARVA REGION... IN ADDITION TO QUESTIONS REGARDING POSSIBILITY OF NARROW WARM SECTOR REMAINING ONSHORE...ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR REGARDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW COULD YIELD SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS COULD REMAIN COOL / CLOUDY / STABLE...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 12:49:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 07:49:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503281248.j2SCmg9o023966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281246 SWODY1 SPC AC 281244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ILM 20 SSW RDU 10 NE DAN 15 ENE LYH 20 ENE CHO 10 SSW BWI 10 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CHS 30 NW AND 45 SW TYS 30 ENE LEX 35 SSW CMH 25 NNE ZZV 25 N PIT 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM ...CONT... 20 SSE SRQ 35 ENE ORL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MSO 25 W BZN 25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 45 WNW BIS 45 SE REJ 25 SSE GCC 30 W LND 25 SE VEL 35 NNW 4BL 35 SSW PGA 40 WNW IGM 40 SSW DRA 20 NNW BFL 10 NNW SCK 25 ENE RBL 50 NW BNO 20 WSW LWS 10 WSW MSO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NC AND THE DELMARVA REGION... ...NC/VA THIS MORNING... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING ACROSS NC/VA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF EMBEDDED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. MORE INTENSE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...WITH LARGE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY LATE MORNING...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. ...NC/VA THIS AFTERNOON... SOME DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NC/VA IN THE WAKE OF MORNING PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO EASTERN NC/SOUTHEAST VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. POCKET OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STRONG UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION...PROMOTING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 16:18:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 11:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503281618.j2SGI6B5014429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281610 SWODY1 SPC AC 281609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 15 N OAJ 10 NE RWI 40 SE CHO 30 ENE CHO 15 SE BWI 25 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 NE MLB ...CONT... 25 SSW ILM 10 SE SOP 30 NNE CLT 30 WSW HKY 20 S TRI 20 N 5I3 10 N UNI 35 W HLG 25 N PIT 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BFL 10 NNE SCK 60 SE RBL 30 E RBL 65 SSW BNO 65 N BNO 10 E ALW 25 W MSO 20 SW BTM 25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 25 NE DIK 30 N REJ 15 ENE GCC 45 E WRL 50 NNW RIW 45 NNE BPI 30 E BPI 10 S RKS 40 W CAG 30 SSE MTJ 35 W FMN 80 NNE INW 50 WSW GCN 40 NW IGM 45 S DRA 25 NNW NID 20 NNW BFL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA... ....MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA... INTENSE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE EWD OFFSHORE BY LATE EVENING. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AT 16Z SERN VA WILL TRACK NEWD TO OFF SRN MD COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS OVER ERN CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. DRIER AIR IS SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO WLY ACROSS CAROLINAS WITH THE CURRENT VERY MOIST AIRMASS ERN NC/SERN VA BEING REPLACED BY THE DRIER AIR BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS OVER COASTAL NC/SERN VA THIS AM SHOULD WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS MOVE OFFSHORE. SOME THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLD UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NC. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRYING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO S OF SURFACE LOW...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THREAT ENDING BY 00Z. ..HALES/GUYER.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 20:01:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 15:01:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503282000.j2SK0w0a025417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281959 SWODY1 SPC AC 281957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ECG 40 W ECG 55 S RIC RIC 45 N RIC 25 NNE NHK 35 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAV AGS FLO 20 S OAJ 40 NNW EWN 45 N RWI PSK PKB LBE 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SMX 10 NNE SCK 60 SE RBL 30 E RBL 65 SSW BNO 65 N BNO 10 E ALW 25 W MSO 3DU 25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 25 NE DIK 30 N REJ 15 ENE GCC 45 E WRL 50 NNW RIW 45 NNE BPI BPI VEL CNY PGA 50 WSW GCN LAS NID BFL 40 ENE SMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA...SRN DELMARVA TIDEWATER REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER CYCLONE IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/REFLECTIVITY DATA...MOVING ENEWD FROM VICINITY TN/NC BORDER. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- NOW ANALYZED NEAR RIC...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DELMARVA BY 29/06Z...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY VORTEX ALOFT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE ALL BUT PORTIONS EXTREME SERN FL AND KEYS...AND HAS OCCLUDED FROM RIC-AREA LOW SEWD TO JUST OFFSHORE NRN OUTER BANKS. ...TIDEWATER REGION VA/MD/DE... SMALL AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS SERN VA... PERHAPS SPREADING INTO ERN SHORE REGION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM COLD ATLANTIC WATERS. CONVECTION OVER RIC AREA MAY BACKBUILD SEWD INTO NARROW PLUME OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE JUST BEHIND OCCLUDED FRONT. ACTIVITY IS IN REGIME THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE SYNOPTICALLY...BUT QUITE COMPRESSED IN SIZE -- NOSE OF LOW-MIDLEVEL DRY PUNCH...COLOCATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE/VORTICITY MAX NEAR SFC LOW CENTER...AND ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED PIEDMONT FRONT. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 427 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SW-NE ACROSS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS PRONOUNCED/POSTFRONTAL DRY ADVECTION REDUCES AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL CAA AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING...FURTHER LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GEN TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR AS FAR NE AS PORTIONS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 29 00:55:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 19:55:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503290054.j2T0snkB018357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290052 SWODY1 SPC AC 290050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW HSE 40 ENE LYH 35 W DCA 35 ESE MGW 20 WNW AOO 10 SE POU 30 NNW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE FCA 30 ENE HLN 25 SSE 3HT 30 NNW GGW 55 NW ISN 40 ESE P24 15 NNW MBG 40 S 81V 45 E WRL 25 NNE RIW 20 E LND 25 SE RWL 20 W COS 35 SE ALS 40 NNE 4SL 20 SSW CEZ 50 N INW 30 N PRC 45 SSW LAS 50 ENE DRA 50 W U24 30 SW EKO 20 SSW ALW 35 NNW 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD...AND IS EXPECTED TO VACATE THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS / SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. THOUGH SMALL HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STABILIZED ACROSS THE REGION TO THE DEGREE THAT ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FURTHER WEST...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. / THE ROCKIES. MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 03/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 29 05:52:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 00:52:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503290551.j2T5pHSQ002598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290549 SWODY1 SPC AC 290547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE 63S 60 NNW 27U 35 NW JAC 40 NW AKO 30 NW IML 40 S 9V9 45 SSW FAR 15 WNW BJI 35 NW HIB 40 E DLH 30 WNW CWA 15 NE MLI 10 NNE VIH 20 NNW HOT 30 WNW PGO 25 WSW TUL 25 NNE END 25 N GAG 30 ENE TCC 25 SSE ABQ 80 NNE INW 15 NNE ELY 55 ESE 4LW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED VORT MAX -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN CURVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...ELONGATED PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT NEWD TOWARD IA WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW / FRONT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... AS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/. THOUGH CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS...A LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER E INTO CENTRAL KS / ERN NEB...GREATER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...A LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ..GOSS.. 03/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 29 12:39:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 07:39:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503291238.j2TCcFqU019298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291236 SWODY1 SPC AC 291234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE 63S 60 NNW 27U 35 NW JAC 40 NW AKO 30 NW IML 40 S 9V9 45 SSW FAR 15 WNW BJI 35 NW HIB 40 E DLH 30 WNW CWA 15 NE MLI 10 NNE VIH 20 NNW HOT 30 WNW PGO 25 WSW TUL 25 NNE END 25 N GAG 30 ENE TCC 25 SSE ABQ 80 NNE INW 15 NNE ELY 55 ESE 4LW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UT/AZ IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL KS. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THIS REGION...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS EASTWARD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO REGION. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS. LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE ACTIVITY BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS/NEB AND WESTERN IA DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS /GENERALLY BETWEEN ICT AND DDC/. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THIS AREA...AND ERODE THE CAP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-01Z. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS AREA FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION RATHER SPARSE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CENTRAL KS MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS OF SCENARIO BECOME MORE EVIDENT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 03/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 00:57:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 19:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503300056.j2U0uetS000841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300054 SWODY1 SPC AC 300052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 35 ESE HLN 25 WSW RKS 35 E FCL 10 SSW MHE 55 N AXN 40 NE DLH 35 E IWD 10 SE VOK MLI 20 W UIN 25 E SZL 45 ENE BVO 50 SW END 30 N CVS 30 ESE ABQ 20 SW CDC 40 WNW OWY 30 N 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION... VORT MAX NOW OVER SERN CO / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION / SWRN KS WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM IN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...INVOF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CO. STRONGEST STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WHERE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXISTS. OVERALL HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE STRONG FORCING AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- MAINLY AS A RESULT OF MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE...LIKELY SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW. ..GOSS.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 06:25:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 01:25:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503300624.j2U6OC8w018270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300622 SWODY1 SPC AC 300620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SBN 10 SE MIE SDF 35 SSW CKV DYR 30 E POF 40 NW CGI 35 ESE OTM 15 N CID 20 SW LNR 25 NNW MSN 15 WNW MKE 15 WNW BEH 35 ESE SBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE OSC 35 NNW CMH 35 ESE LUK 25 NW CSV 30 W CHA 35 SW TCL 50 W JAN 50 WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 65 ESE VIH 35 E IRK 30 NE LWD 10 SSW FOD 40 E EAU 35 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BUF 20 N PIT 20 N CRW 20 E JKL 20 W AVL 45 W AGS 60 SSE MCN 40 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BVE 15 NW BTR 30 S MLU LIT 15 ESE UNO JEF 40 S P35 20 SSW BIE 15 SE OLU 10 E FSD 25 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 35 WNW Y22 40 ESE 4BQ 40 SSE 81V 15 NNE CDR 50 SW MHN 20 NNE GCK 20 ESE P28 30 SSW PNC 20 WSW OKC 55 SW GAG 30 ESE RTN 35 N CEZ 35 NNE U28 15 S MLD 45 E S80 85 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TN / WRN KY NWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN MO / IL / IN / ERN IA / SRN WI.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD ACROSS THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER NERN KS SHOULD MOVE NEWD TO ERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE OHIO / TN VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD. AN 80-PLUS KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. MEANWHILE...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF 990 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG HEATING BENEATH DRY SLOT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FROM LA / MS NWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS IA AND VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF MAIN VORT MAX...CAP ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN CAP...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG / AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY ALLOWING STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD FROM ONGOING IA CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS ERN MO / IL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS IL / IN. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...PRIMARY STORM MODE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO 50 TO 60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR / HELICITY IS ANTICIPATED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS IL / SRN WI WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BACKED AHEAD OF IA SURFACE LOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR A STRONGER TORNADO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING HOURS FROM WRN TN NWD ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI. OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR EWD AS LOWER MI / WRN OH / CENTRAL KY / MIDDLE TN...WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 12:52:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 07:52:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503301251.j2UCpPjE024143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301249 SWODY1 SPC AC 301247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE AZO 10 ESE MIE 10 WNW SDF 20 WSW BNA 15 NNW MSL 25 S TUP 30 SSW UOX MEM 25 SW PAH SLO 20 N ALN 35 SSW UIN 25 E DSM 35 WSW ALO 55 NE ALO 25 NNW MSN 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 30 SW CAK 25 WNW UNI 30 NW CSV 15 NE ANB 10 SW TOI 40 ENE MOB 40 WNW MOB 25 SSW JAN 30 S GLH 50 WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 30 ENE VIH 25 SSE P35 15 ENE OMA 35 WSW SPW 45 WNW EAU 10 W ESC 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BUF 20 N PIT 20 N CRW 20 E JKL 20 W AVL 45 W AGS 60 SSE MCN 40 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GPT 20 W BTR 35 WSW MLU LIT 10 S UNO 20 SW JEF 45 ENE MKC 20 SSW BIE 30 NE OFK 10 E FSD 25 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 45 WNW Y22 35 WNW PHP 40 ESE AIA 20 NNE GCK 20 ESE P28 30 SSW PNC 20 WSW OKC 55 SW GAG 55 N SAF 15 S CEZ 20 NNW U28 15 S MLD 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...MUCH OF IL...MUCH OF IND...WESTERN KY...WESTERN TN...AND NORTHERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEB/KS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS MO/IA AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WESTERN IA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TWO AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE AREA ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL/WI/NORTHERN IND. THE SECOND AREA FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO NORTHERN MS. ...IA/MS THIS MORNING... ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. PLEASE REFER TO MD NUMBER 430 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...IA/WI/IL/NRN IND THIS AFTERNOON... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IA. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -20 WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION IN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET. SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY...ORGANIZING INTO BROKEN LINES OF SEVERE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES UNTIL AFTER DARK...POTENTIALLY LESSENING THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. REGARDLESS... NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA. ...SRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THIS EVENING... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60F AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN AR...AND MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KY/TN AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. CORE OF 80 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL NOSE ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND THAT TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL JET BECOMING MORE DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A WEAK CAP. ALSO...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. IF MOISTURE RETURN IS AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME ACROSS EASTERN MS AND MUCH OF AL. ..HART/JEWELL.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:26:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:26:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503301625.j2UGPa0W027713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301603 SWODY1 SPC AC 301601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE AZO 10 ESE MIE 10 WNW SDF 20 WSW BNA 15 NNW MSL 25 S TUP 30 SSW UOX MEM 20 SE CGI 25 SE BLV 20 N ALN 35 SSW UIN 25 E DSM 35 WSW ALO 55 NE ALO 25 NNW MSN 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 30 SW CAK 25 WNW UNI 30 NW CSV 15 NE ANB 10 SW TOI 40 ENE MOB 40 WNW MOB 25 SSW JAN 30 S GLH 50 WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 30 ENE VIH 25 SSE P35 15 ENE OMA 35 WSW SPW 45 WNW EAU 10 W ESC 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 40 S ELD 40 NE LIT 20 ESE UNO TBN SZL 20 NNE BIE 20 NE OFK 30 N AXN 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 50 S Y22 35 NW PHP 40 W MHN 20 SW MCK 10 E P28 15 S PNC 35 N ADM 30 NW LTS 30 ENE ABQ 45 NNW GUP 35 ESE SLC 10 NE BYI 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ERI 15 SSW CRW 35 NW AGS 15 NNW AQQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...MUCH OF IL...MUCH OF IND...WESTERN KY AND NORTHERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEB/KS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS MO/IA AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN IA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WRN WI TONIGHT..WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TWO AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE AREA ACROSS PARTS OF IA/SRN MN/IL/WI/NORTHERN IND. THE SECOND AREA FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO NORTHERN MS. ...IA/MN/WI/IL/NRN IND... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WRN IA WILL INCREASE AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM WRN IA INTO NWRN MO. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PREVAIL OVER THIS REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -20C WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION IN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET. SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY...ORGANIZING INTO BROKEN LINES OF SEVERE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI. DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL IL/WRN IN POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ...SRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60F SPREADING NEWD ACROSS AR WITH MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KY/TN AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. CORE OF 80 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL NOSE ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND THAT TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL JET BECOMING MORE DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION AFTER 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A WEAK CAP. ALSO...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. IF MOISTURE RETURN IS AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME ACROSS EASTERN MS AND MUCH OF AL. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 20:20:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 15:20:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503302019.j2UKJ97M021859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302016 SWODY1 SPC AC 302014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE AZO 10 ESE MIE 25 W IND 40 N EVV MVN ALN 30 SSW MLI CID 20 SSW ALO 20 NNE MCW 35 WSW LSE 15 S OSH 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W JAN 20 W GWO 25 NW UOX 40 S MKL 30 WNW MSL 15 SSE MSL 20 ENE TCL 40 SSE MEI 30 E MCB 40 ENE HEZ 40 W JAN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 30 SW CAK 35 S SDF 35 E BNA 10 S ANB TOI 40 ENE MOB MSY ESF 30 S GLH 35 W MEM 25 NW POF 35 ENE VIH OTM 40 SSW FOD FRM 45 WNW EAU 35 WNW IMT 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 40 S ELD 40 NE LIT 20 ESE UNO 15 NNE VIH IRK 30 NW LWD 25 E OFK 30 N AXN 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 50 S Y22 35 NW PHP 40 W MHN 20 SW MCK 10 E P28 15 S PNC 35 N ADM 30 NW LTS 30 ENE ABQ 45 NNW GUP 35 ESE SLC 10 NE BYI 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ERI 35 WNW BLF 35 NW AGS 40 WSW PFN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN IA...EXTREME SERN MN...SRN WI...AND IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT...PORTIONS MS AND WRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM WI...LM AND LOWER MI TO SERN LA AND PORTIONS MS/AL... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL/REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER SWRN IA...WHICH IS BECOMING MORE COLOCATED WITH SFC CYCLONE. EXPECT LOW AT ALL LEVELS TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...ACROSS WI. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER SERN IA...S-CENTRAL MO...NWRN AR AND N-CENTRAL TX...SHOULD MOVE EWD TO NRN LA...NRN MS...MID TN...ERN INDIANA AND LOWER MI BY 31/12Z. TWO SFC WARM FRONTS ARE ANALYZED -- ONE COINCIDENT WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM SFC LOW ACROSS SERN MN/NWRN WI...THE OTHER LIFTING NWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES STATES... AS LATTER WARM FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NWD...SO WILL SFC-BASED SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. CONTINUING DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION ALSO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL IN WARM SECTOR AND ALONG/AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN IL. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHEAR/BUOYANCY PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...EVENTUAL BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT...AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE. REF WWS 105-106 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. AREA BENEATH AND JUST NE OF COLD CORE REGION OF MIDLEVEL CYCLONE -- ACROSS NERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI...STILL POSE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS A FEW MORE NONSUPERCELL AND MINI-SUPERCELL TORNADOES. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY REMAINS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 434 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SFC HEATING LOSS REDUCES MLCAPES...HOWEVER HAIL FROM ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS WI AND PERHAPS ERN UPPER MI. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL... DEEP CONVECTION MAY REMAIN SUPPRESSED DIURNALLY BENEATH STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN 18Z JAN RAOB. HOWEVER...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME TONIGHT OVER THIS REGION...AMIDST CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WAA FROM RAPIDLY MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS. SPATIAL WIDTH...VERTICAL DEPTH AND PW CONTENT OF FAVORABLY MOIST AIR WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT REMAINDER PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES DEW POINTS MID 60S F INTO ERN LA ATTM...70S OVER GULF S OF MS DELTA. SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEARLY SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF MS AND PERHAPS ADJOINING SECTIONS WRN AL/ERN LA. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG SBCAPE POSSIBLE BY 31/06Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITH EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH ROUGHLY 300 J/KG...200-300 J/KG SRH IN FIRST KM AGL...AND 60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ...SRN IL TO WRN TN... RELATIVE MIN IN TOTAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INDICATED FROM SRN IL SWD ACROSS NWRN TN --- IN BETWEEN TWO PRIMARY SEVERE AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN S OF SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC ADJUSTMENTS...RESULTING IN SOME VEERED FLOW AND RELATIVELY MINIMIZED CONVERGENCE. SOME CONVECTION MAY BACKBUILD INTO THIS AREA BRIEFLY -- INVOF SFC FRONT -- BEFORE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...AND NRN PORTION OF WAA/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME FROM GULF MAY BRUSH WRN TN TONIGHT. ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS STILL WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO BECAUSE OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBABILITIES SUFFICIENT FOR CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:02:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:02:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503310101.j2V11VU0001284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310058 SWODY1 SPC AC 310057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCB 30 S JAN 45 SW CBM 35 S CBM 40 SSW TCL 50 E LUL 20 NNW GPT 35 SE MCB MCB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MFD 35 NW LEX 35 SSW PAH 10 SSW POF 10 ENE ALN 15 E PIA RFD 35 NNE JVL 20 ESE OSH 50 S ESC 35 NNW APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 30 SW HEZ 30 S GLH 20 ESE MEM 10 SSW MKL 55 SSW CKV 15 SE BNA 35 NW CHA 25 ENE GAD 20 ESE MGM 20 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE GLD 25 SSW P28 55 E OKC 20 NW ADM SPS 25 E PVW TCC 20 SW PUB 30 N CYS 15 ENE BFF 15 SSE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 55 SSE GDV 25 S 4BQ 50 SSE BIL 15 WNW 3HT 25 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI TRI AHN 30 WNW PFN ...CONT... 35 WSW 7R4 30 W ESF 30 SE PBF 30 N ARG 30 SSW SPI 40 ENE MLI 25 SW ALO 30 E FRM 70 NNE MSP 15 WNW IWD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MS AND A SMALL PART OF WRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS...TN AND AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE GREAT LAKE STATES... ...GREAT LAKE STATES... INTENSE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS MOVING INTO SWRN WI THIS EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD AND PUSHING INTO WRN IL/SWRN WI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS ADVECTING MID/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NWD THROUGH WI AND STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT GIVEN THE COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS. ...MS/AL AND TN... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SPREADING NWD ACROSS SERN LA AND EXTREME SRN MS. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM IS AROUND 20 KT AND SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. SOME CONCERN IF TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK...ESPECIALLY SINCE EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPDRAFT BASES MAY STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... MODERATE RISK WAS MAINTAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MS AND A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL AL...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO OCCUR. ..IMY.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 06:03:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 01:03:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503310602.j2V62Fso021011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310559 SWODY1 SPC AC 310558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ESF LFK 25 ESE TYR 15 SSW UOX 20 NNE GAD 25 WNW LGC 10 SE MGM LUL 30 SSW ESF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 LCH CLL 50 SE DAL UOX 65 NNW AHN 40 NNW AGS SAV JAX 40 SSW VLD 40 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE EFK 35 WNW GFL 10 NW ELM 25 ENE HGR 25 SE NEL ...CONT... GLS 20 S SAT 45 ESE JCT 55 S BWD 30 S SEP 20 W MWL 60 WNW MWL 65 NNW ABI 50 WNW LBB 45 NE CVS LHX IML 35 WSW MBG 40 NE MBG 10 NE ATY 15 SSE OTG 10 S SUX 50 NE HLC 25 SSE GCK 20 SW GAG 35 W END 15 ENE PNC 40 NE TUL 45 E FSM 35 N LIT 35 E MKL 35 WNW LOZ 45 W UNI 25 ESE TOL 50 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF E TEXAS/NRN LA/CNTRL MS AND NRN AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES.... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...BROAD CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE EASTERN STATES. LEAD TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IN MORE NORTHERN STREAM...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NARROWING/SHRINKING WARM SECTOR WITH OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT WITH FORMER SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING JUST AHEAD OF FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF STATES TODAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IN MORE SOUTHERN STREAM DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STALLING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY ...PARTICULARLY AS WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH MID 60S/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BENEATH STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ...EASTERN GULF STATES... PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO LEAD NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE...AND PERHAPS A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE...OR SUBTROPICAL FEATURE...IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS ALABAMA/GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH CAPE LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A HAIL THREAT...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES MAY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. IF THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES... WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/LACK OF FOCUSED STRONG CONVERGENCE AND SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS...MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT IN SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR/SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...AND RISK FOR SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW EVOLVES/DEEPENS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES...WHICH MAY PERSIST/SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 12:48:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 07:48:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503311247.j2VClB53025836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311245 SWODY1 SPC AC 311243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ESF 20 SSE LFK 20 WNW CLL 55 WSW TYR 45 N TYR 40 ENE ELD 35 NE CBM 20 NE TCL 25 WNW SEM LUL 25 SW ESF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 LCH 40 NNE HOU 50 N PSX 50 ESE SAT 40 WNW AUS 30 NNW DAL 35 SSW ADM ADM 35 SW MLC 25 SSE PGO 15 S MEM 15 NNE RMG 20 NNE CAE 45 SW FLO 10 N SSI 40 ESE TLH 15 W AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 15 S VCT 40 ENE COT 30 NNE HDO 40 E JCT 10 SE SEP 60 WNW MWL 65 NNW ABI 50 WNW LBB 45 NE CVS LHX IML 35 WSW MBG 40 NE MBG 10 NE ATY 15 SSE OTG 10 S SUX 50 NE HLC 25 SSE GCK 20 SW GAG 35 W END 15 ENE PNC 40 NE TUL 45 E FSM 35 N LIT 35 E MKL 35 WNW LOZ 45 W UNI 25 ESE TOL 50 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 15 ENE EFK 35 WNW GFL 10 NW ELM 25 ENE HGR 25 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL...NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL MS...AND WESTERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LOW NOW NEAR DHT...AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. ...MS/AL/GA/SC/FL TODAY... LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL/GA. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY SEVERE ALL NIGHT...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO THE LINE MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING....WITH STORMS DEVELOPING INTO PARTS OF SC...SOUTHERN GA/AL...AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN FL THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF STORMS WILL AID SEVERE THREAT. STORMS MAY ALSO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ...EAST TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT EAST TX AND MUCH OF LA TODAY...AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 FROM DAL TO SAT BY AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES 1200-1900 J/KG/. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY AROUND 21Z FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT. INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO WESTERN LA WHERE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ...LA/MS/AL OVERNIGHT... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN LA INTO MS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...OR A FAST MOVING SEVERE MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IF THE MCS CAN DEVELOP...STORMS WILL LIKELY RACE EASTWARD ACROSS MS AND INTO AL BY 12Z. ..HART/JEWELL.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 16:45:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 11:45:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503311644.j2VGiQGK008029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311622 SWODY1 SPC AC 311620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BTR 45 NNW BPT 35 SE TPL 30 E ACT 45 NNW TYR 40 S PBF 25 ENE CBM 20 E TCL 60 SSW SEM 40 NNE GPT 25 W BTR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT 10 SSW HOU 50 N PSX 50 ESE SAT 45 NW AUS 30 NNW DAL 35 SSW ADM ADM 35 SW MLC 25 SSE PGO 20 NNW TUP 10 E LGC 20 WSW CAE 45 SW FLO 10 N SSI 40 ESE TLH 15 W AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CDR 40 NE 81V 35 WSW BIS 35 SSW JMS 25 ENE FSD 20 NNW OFK 20 SE ANW 30 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 50 ESE DRT 65 W JCT 30 NW BWD 50 N ABI 50 SSW LBB 40 WSW CVS 35 N TCC 50 E LAA 25 ENE HUT 10 E JLN 15 SE HRO 15 ENE JBR 15 ESE CKV 30 SSW LOZ 20 WNW PKB 40 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE EFK 20 WSW CON 15 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PBI 60 NE EYW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF LA/SRN AR...CENTRAL AND SRN MS AND WESTERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO TODAY AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT POSITION OK PANHANDLE TO AR/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT. REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE PRODUCED A FORMIDABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL GA WSWWD ACROSS SWRN AL THEN WWD INTO SRN LA. PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO WRN NY/PA HAS ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF IT. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS WORKED INLAND LOWER MS VALLEY TO S OF E/W BOUNDARY. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT N/NEWD TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS NRN LA AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. ...ERN TX EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES... FIRST AREA OF SEVERE CONCERN TODAY EXPECTED TO BE VICINITY E/W BOUNDARY LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH MLCAPES RISING TO ABOVE 2500 J/K BY EARLY AFTERNOON SRN LA/SRN MS...AND CAP ERODING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS ERN TX AND THEN INTO NRN LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGH ADVECTING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEWD ACROSS ERN TX INTO NRN LA/SRN AR. IN BOTH AREAS DISCUSSED CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE MDT RISK. ADDITIONALLY AS THE CONVECTIVE AREAS EVOLVE....DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS THE STORM MODE TRANSITIONS INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES EWD ACROSS MS/AL INTO GA. ISOLATED TORNADOS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY EARLY ON IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE REGIME. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 19:50:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 14:50:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503311948.j2VJmwTF001063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311946 SWODY1 SPC AC 311944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BTR 45 NNW BPT 30 ENE CLL 45 ESE ACT 50 ENE ACT 40 NW TYR 45 SSE PRX 40 S PBF CBM 20 N 0A8 20 N SEM 40 SW SEM 35 NNW MOB 25 W BTR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 20 SE PFN ...CONT... 15 WSW GLS 45 NE VCT 35 S AUS 40 WNW AUS 50 W TPL 10 NW FTW 15 SE ADM 20 S MLC 15 S LIT 30 NE TUP 10 NNW RMG 15 NNW CAE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E EFK 15 E CON 20 SW EWB ...CONT... 25 N PBI 60 NE EYW ...CONT... 30 SSW PSX 30 W NIR 45 NW COT 45 E DRT 25 WNW JCT 50 WNW MWL 40 SSW SPS 55 WSW SPS 60 NW ABI 50 SSW LBB 30 S CVS 35 N TCC 30 SSE LAA 50 NNE GCK 30 SE SLN 25 E CNU 25 S HRO 55 NNE LIT 30 E MKL 50 N CSV 10 NNE HTS 25 WNW PKB 40 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BUB 25 NNE MHN 25 N CDR 45 NW RAP 15 NE REJ 25 ESE Y22 50 NW ABR 25 NNE ATY 20 NE FSD 20 SSE YKN 50 NE BUB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX...LA...MS...WRN AL AND FAR SRN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL ADVANCE EWD TONIGHT REACHING ERN OK LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE/FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE DALLAS AREA EXTENDING SSWWD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SRN TX HILL COUNTRY. SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE FROM THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS LA AND SRN MS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TX STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE STORMS STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING EWD ACROSS EAST TX INTO THE WRN PART OF THE MDT RISK AREA. A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. AS CELLS INITIATE...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE MDT RISK AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE COLDER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL MAKE VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS LA INTO MS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ENHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ERN LA...CNTRL AND SRN MS...AND WRN AL DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME-FRAME. ...ERN AL/GA/SC... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN GA EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF AL AND GA...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN UNSTABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. AS AN UPPER-LOW AND LARGE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AL...GA AND SC WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 09Z ACROSS ERN AL AND GA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE DUE TO SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.