[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 232006
SWODY1
SPC AC 232005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
MQT 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 40 ESE PHP
50 SE MBG 15 W JMS 60 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM
50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF
...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV
25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW
LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB
20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN ROCKIES. A HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM NWRN MN
TO ERN SD.

SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S F AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE
AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS MN. IN
ADDITION...LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
SUPERCELLS. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FARTHER
SOUTH...THE CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO WRN MN AND ERN SD BY
EARLY EVENING. ACROSS ERN SD...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERED WITH
WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE INTO ERN AND SRN MN BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND AN
INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION.

...HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN WY...NERN CO AND SWRN SD. HOWEVER...THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEHIND AN
EXITING UPPER-TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY STEEP SUGGESTING A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...AZ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ACROSS SRN CA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5
C/KM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT
MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 06/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.