[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100058
SWODY1
SPC AC 100057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
PVW 35 NE PVW 30 ENE AMA 55 W GAG 10 SSE GAG CSM 20 SE LTS 65 SSE
CDS 75 ESE LBB 35 ESE LBB 25 ESE PVW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
P07 15 SSE INK 55 NW BGS AMA 20 ENE LBL GCK GLD LIC 35 NNW LIC 55
ESE CYS 20 NNW SNY MHN 35 NNW BUB MHE ATY 35 SW STC 10 ENE MKT MCW
10 NNE DSM STJ MHK HUT END OKC 25 ESE SPS 40 WNW ABI 45 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL HIB 30 NW
MQT 45 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 45 WSW GLS CLL 55 WSW TYR ACT 25 S BWD JCT
DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF MRF INK 40 E TCC DHT EHA LAA TAD 4SL 25 NNE
SOW EED DRA 60 NW P38 U24 PUC 50 SE RKS RWL LND COD BZN 30 S MSO 40
NNW 63S.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
TX PNHDL/NW TX/WRN OK....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY....

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF NATION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SUPPORTED BY SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.  WITH ONSET OF SURFACE
COOLING...STORMS NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERALLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHERE DRY MID-LEVELS WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERLIE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS...STRONG
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES.

UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS INTENSE ZONAL NORTHERN
PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  IN NORTHERN
PORTION OF WESTERN TROUGH...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE
ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. 
MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SURFACE
DATA.  ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON INCREASING
NEUTRAL TILT AND TURN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.  FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MCS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD/
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE
LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
THIS SEEMS ONLY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT BROADER-SCALE SEVERE WIND EVENT...BUT SUFFICIENT
MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO
SUPPORT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SQUALL LINE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS..
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU
SHORT WAVE...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ARE
EXPECTED TO FOCUS EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
 LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL NOT SUPPORT EASTWARD ACCELERATION
INTO THE LOWER PLAINS...BUT STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING APPEARS
LIKELY NEAR HEAVY RAINS CORES. THUS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY LATE
EVENING APPEARS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH
CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS...WHICH SHOULD SURGE SOUTHWARD/ EASTWARD AWAY
FROM CONVECTIVE CORE OVERNIGHT.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 06/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.