[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 052015
SWODY1
SPC AC 052014

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 NNW MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD
25 NW MQT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW
GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 50 S S06 65 NW FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL BNA MKL LIT 25 NNE ABI 50 ESE LBB 30 WSW CDS 35
NNE CSM 25 NW BVO 30 ESE VIH 40 WNW SPI 20 WSW MCW 35 WNW MSP 35 NE
BRD 45 ESE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS
...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE
LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 30
SSW P28 30 SSW SZL 25 NNW SZL 10 ENE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW
MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA
SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC ...CONT... 45 NNE GGW 45 W 4BQ 55 WSW
LAR GJT MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC BNO LWS GEG 45 NNE 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM  NWRN TX ACROSS THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES  REGION......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID.....

CORRECTED TO CHANGE WATCH TYPE IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
AT 19Z...STORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NRN IA/ERN MN
AND WRN WI AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL VORT
THAT WAS LOCATED IN SERN MN TOWARD. DIURNAL HEATING HAD RESULTED IN
THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES/REFERENCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
WI AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPPER VORT
MAX IN SERN MN MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA.

...MI/IN/NWRN OH...
STRONG HEATING EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAD DEVELOPED IN LOWER MI AT
MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/ SHEAR SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS
STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH
404.

AN MCV IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH NRN IL AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
NWRN IN INTO EXTREME ERN IL. THE FAST MOTION OF THE MCV AND DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IN AND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN
OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 406

...MID MS/TN VALLEYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS...
SEVERE CONVECTION IS LESS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEY
REGION DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...OLD BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HELP TO INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG WEAKENING FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NWRN TX/SWRN OK NEWD INTO
NERN OK. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN NWRN TX AND MLCAPES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT.

...MT/ID...
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MT AS STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC
NW.  WHILE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES...ISOLATED STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL LA...
MCV NORTH OF HOU IS MOVING NEWD AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SEA BREEZE PLUS STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS.

..IMY.. 06/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.