[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021613
SWODY1
SPC AC 021612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC AKO
30 NW IML LBF HSI HUT END 45 NNE CSM GAG LBL LIC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40
E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40
NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 50 WSW FAR
70 NNW GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
AYS 35 WSW VLD 15 S DHN 15 ENE TOI 35 NNW MCN 40 WSW AGS 40 NW CHS
10 E CHS 40 NE SSI 25 SSE AYS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GLS 45 ESE CLL
35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 W CDR 60 NE CDR 30 ENE PHP 45 WSW
MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 15 N EVW 40 NNE VEL
25 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 70 E ELO 55 SSE DLH 40 ESE MSP 25 SW
MCW 20 ENE MKC 15 ENE JLN 35 SE FSM 20 ESE TXK 35 SSW GLH 35 S JBR
20 N MDH 10 SSE BMG 25 WNW LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG
...CONT... HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 50 NE PHX
15 S FMN 25 SE 4BL 45 SSW SGU 15 E DRA 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI
35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E
GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 S ROW 45
ENE ROW 40 ENE 4CR 25 NNE TCS 40 SW DMN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NEB AND NORTHWEST
OK......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND WRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY...A
COUPLE IMPORTANT S/WVS WILL BE AFFECTING THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY MOIST GULF AIR IS STREAMING NWD THRU THE SRN INTO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY
RESIDE. WITH STRONG HEATING...PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A VERY
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB/NWRN OK...
MORNING ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO
NRN CO...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW IN SERN CO...N/NELY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ERN CO.  APPROACH OF THE
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOTED ON WV/IR IMAGERY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES 
THIS AM...WILL DEEPEN SURFACE LOW SE CO AND INCREASE ELY UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO NERN CO AND SWRN NEB.  ALSO DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM
LOW THRU THE TX PANHANDLE SEPARATING A AIR MASS TO THE E THAT WILL
BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 4000 J/KG AND A
VERY WARM/DRY SWLY FLOW TO W OF DRY LINE.

40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STRONG VEERING IN LOW LEVELS WILL
BE IN PLACE BY TIME OF SURFACE INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON.  VICINITY OF NERN CO WHERE
UPSLOPE STRONGEST AND PROXIMITY OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL WIND MAX
EXPECTED TO BE AREA OF INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  VERY LARGE
HAIL ALONG WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR GIVEN THE
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THEY
TAP INTO THE PLUME OF HIGH INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WRN KS
THUS THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AFTER DARK AS THEY PROPAGATE INTO THE 40-50
KT LOW LEVEL JET.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT
DURING WITH THIS PROCESS INTO KS AND SRN NEB.

...OK/TX DRYLINE...
RIDGING AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL
BE ACROSS DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL CAPPED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  STRONG HEATING
BOTH SIDES OF DRY LINE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 60S F
WILL  CREATE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF DRY LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN MLCAPES TO NEAR 4000 J/KG.  AT LEAST ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT VICINITY DRY LINE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SWD DOWN
THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING POSSIBLY INTO SWRN TX AS THE INFLUENCE OF
APPROACHING SRN BRANCH SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY. ANY STORM THAT CAN
FORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND A
LESSER BUT STILL CHANCE OF TORNADOS.

EFFECTS LATER TONIGHT OF S/WV FROM BAJA THAT WILL BE ENTERING SWRN
TX UNCLEAR GIVEN THE CAP THAT WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. BUT MID LEVEL
COOLING AND ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT A MORE 
SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS THAN NOW FORECASTED.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD TOWARD WRN MN BORDER TODAY
AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN DRIFTS WWD.  SLY
FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ENABLE 
MLCAPES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH 30-40
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON VICINITY FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
REF MCD 1120
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE WEAKENED PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS WARM SECTOR IN
SERN STATES.  HOWEVER WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE TO S OF SURFACE WEDGE E OF APPALACHIANS AND THE
GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH AL/MS...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.  THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.