From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 00:48:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 19:48:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506010058.j510wDW9012764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010056 SWODY1 SPC AC 010054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SJT BGS 45 SSW LBB 30 W LBB 15 W PVW 10 ENE PVW 35 SSE CDS 60 SW SPS 50 NE ABI 30 NNW BWD 40 W BWD 20 N SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CTY 25 W GNV 30 WSW DAB MLB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S JCT 60 WSW JCT 50 ENE ROW 35 WSW CVS 35 NW CVS 30 ESE TCC 40 NW CDS 15 SSE FSI 25 SSE ADM 30 NE DAL 45 E ACT 35 NE AUS 35 N SAT 40 S JCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS 25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 40 NE MKL 40 ESE BNA 15 ENE AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP 30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV 40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ACY 25 ESE HGR 15 S LBE 20 S YNG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 40 N BML 15 SSW MWN 10 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 10 S EWB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN FL... ...SRN PLAINS... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS WEST TX WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER-TROUGH SLIDES EWD OVERNIGHT...THE MCS WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY CENTERED NEAR ABILENE...WILL CONTINUE BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE MCS BECOMES MORE LINEAR IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MARGINAL AS THE MCS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT. ...NRN FL... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WRN FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN FL LATE THIS EVENING SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE AS A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS INLAND. THIS MAY RESULT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS FL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS ROTATING CELLS MOVE INLAND. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LARGE HAIL...STEEP LAPSE RATES AT LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS THAT MOVE OVER THE PENINSULA. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 05:51:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 00:51:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506010601.j5161Mmi005845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010559 SWODY1 SPC AC 010557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 30 ENE COT 25 N HDO 55 ENE JCT 45 WNW TPL 20 SE ACT 55 E CLL 30 ENE GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PBI 25 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 W CTY 10 E JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RRT 25 ENE FAR 10 SSW ATY 65 W YKN 25 N LBF 40 NNW IML 20 WSW SNY 50 W BFF 55 NNE DGW 30 ESE 4BQ 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW P07 15 NE GDP LVS 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 45 WSW PUB 20 ESE MTJ 25 WNW 4HV 35 NE P38 65 E TPH 35 N U31 30 WNW EKO 55 NNW ENV 60 S BYI 20 SW BYI 30 WSW TWF 60 NW OWY 20 SE BNO 30 SE RDM 25 N RDM 20 SSE EAT 35 NE 4OM ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 60 SW IWD 25 W VOK 20 E RFD 15 SSW BEH 20 SE TOL 20 SW MFD 35 WNW UNI 55 WNW HTS 30 N LEX 15 SSW SDF 45 SW OWB 35 NNE DYR 25 SSE MKL 30 NNW MSL 40 W CHA 25 NE SPA 30 S DAN 35 NE RWI 20 ESE ECG ...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 ENE LEB 25 NE BAF 10 N BDR 20 S TTN 30 WNW ILG 25 N HGR 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN ND WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN CANADA TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LOW SLIDES EWD INTO MT. AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...TX COASTAL PLAINS... AN MCS CURRENTLY IN CNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD REACHING THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE LINE BEFORE THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F SHOULD ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE AND TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 21Z SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...FL... A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SERN US AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS FL BY 21Z SHOW SBCAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR SUPERCELLS...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 12:36:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 07:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506011246.j51Ck5Me009056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011242 SWODY1 SPC AC 011241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 50 WSW FAR HON 55 E ANW 15 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML SNY 55 N CYS GCC 25 S GDV 60 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 20 N COT 40 ESE COT 20 SSE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI ABY 40 E TOI 10 NNE AUO 35 N MCN AGS 15 ESE CHS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 NNW MLB ...CONT... 20 S PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW P07 15 NE GDP LVS 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 45 WSW PUB 20 ESE MTJ 25 WNW 4HV 35 NE P38 65 E TPH 35 N U31 30 WNW EKO 55 NNW ENV 65 SSE TWF 20 SW BYI 30 WSW TWF 40 NW OWY 20 SE BNO 30 SE RDM 25 N RDM 20 SSE EAT 35 NE 4OM ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 50 SW IWD 15 SE LSE MLI 45 NW DNV 20 NNW MIE 40 NNW DAY 30 W CMH 50 SSW CMH 35 ESE LUK 45 NE SDF 35 W SDF 25 ENE CKV 40 S BNA 45 W CHA 20 NNE AND 35 WNW SOP 25 ESE RWI 25 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 ENE LEB 25 NE BAF 10 N BDR 20 S TTN 35 WNW ILG 15 NE AOO 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN FAR SRN TX THIS MORNING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA MAINLY THIS MORNING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL GA AREA THIS AFTERNOON... ...SNYOPSIS... UPPER LOW IN NWRN ND WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN CANADA TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH ID...SHIFTS ENEWD INTO WRN ND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. ...NRN PLAINS... DESPITE A WEAK RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A 70 KT JET MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ID UPPER LOW...WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM WY INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIS SOUNDING WAS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED THIS MORNING AND THE LIFT SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO SPREAD IN FROM SERN MT/ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES RESULTING IN AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG FORCING AND AMOUNT OF LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER. ...FAR SRN TX... OVERNIGHT MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR SRN TX SHOULD MOVE SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING. A STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY TO INHIBIT MORE STORMS FROM DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. ...CENTRAL GA AREA... AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD...WARM FRONT NEAR THE AL/GA/FL BORDER IS EXPECTED TO ALSO LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO GA/SC DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE E-W WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY...IF STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA... A BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA. MID 70S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SERN NM/WRN TX... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PUSHED WWD INTO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED AND THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ..IMY/JEWELL.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 15:59:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 10:59:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506011609.j51G9Yb8010329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011605 SWODY1 SPC AC 011604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 50 WSW FAR HON 55 E ANW 15 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML SNY 55 N CYS GCC 25 S GDV 60 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JAX 20 S MGR 30 WSW ABY 15 ENE LGC 45 SSW AHN 30 ENE AGS 35 NE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CAR 25 E MWN 20 SSE EEN 10 N BDR 20 S TTN 35 WNW ILG 15 NE AOO 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI ...CONT... 45 W MRF 45 E ALM 55 NNE 4CR 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 35 SSE GUC 45 NNE 4BL 30 NE BCE 50 SSW P38 65 NE TPH 35 NE U31 20 NNE ENV 40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70 NW OWY 50 SE BNO 25 NNW BNO 35 E RDM 25 SW RDM 55 SSE EUG 25 NNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 20 N DLH 35 ESE MSP 25 SE RST 25 ESE OTM 30 NW ALN 35 W EVV 25 SE OWB 50 S BNA 20 WSW CHA 10 S GSP 25 E CLT 15 NW GSB 25 NE HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE STREAM OF S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS UPPER LOW NWRN ND THIS AM MOVES N AND WEAKENS WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES EWD QUICKLY ACROSS WY/MT. OVER SERN U.S. THE TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE ONLY LITTLE TODAY AS LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WRN AL POSSIBLY DRIFTS A LITTLE WWD INTO MS. AT THE SURFACE A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WRN WY THIS AM WILL ENTER NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS INTO SRN CANADA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SERN STATES...A WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS EWD FROM WEAK LOW WCENTRAL AL. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC TODAY. A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS SPREADING ACROSS SRN GA INTO SRN SC AS WARM FRONT MOVES N. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... PREVIOUS OUTLOOK SCENARIO STILL VALID AS STRONG 100-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DRIVE ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE EXCELLENT SUPPORT FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NERN WY. LOW LEVEL JET OVER HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW WILL PICK UP TO 40-50 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET PROVIDE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATICS/SHEAR FOR SUPPORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MLCAPES UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY WRN DAKOTAS/WY/MT BORDERS AND THEN SPREAD RATHER RAPIDLY NE AND E THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL...SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG KINEMATICS. ...GA/SRN SC... REF MCD #1107 VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN GA INTO SC AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...VEERING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS VICINITY WARM FRONT AND 20-25 KT OF SFC-1 KM SHEAR...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FURTHER S THRU FL PENINSULA...OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY STABILIZED AIR MASS ...BUT WITH 20-30 KT OF SHEAR AND A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY AND 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SWRN TX... WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS WEAKENED THIS AREA...THERE REMAINS A NWLY FLOW PATTERN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH 30KT OF NWLY 500 MB FLOW AND 10-15 KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER SELY FLOW...SHEAR ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAINTAIN A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 19:58:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 14:58:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506012008.j51K8ECg007253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012003 SWODY1 SPC AC 012002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 35 SSE GFK 20 NW ATY 55 SSW MHE 35 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML 30 WNW SNY 55 N CYS 15 SSE WRL 30 ENE COD 25 ESE BIL 15 SSW MLS 10 ENE GDV 20 W ISN 60 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 35 NNW TLH 25 NNE ABY 30 ENE MCN 10 WSW AGS 45 SSE CAE 40 SSW CRE ...CONT... 20 ESE JAX 30 NE GNV 15 WSW GNV 35 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 20 N DLH 35 ESE MSP 25 SE RST 25 ESE OTM 30 NW ALN 35 W EVV 25 SE OWB 50 S BNA 20 WSW CHA 10 S GSP 25 E CLT 15 NW GSB 25 NE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 E ALM 55 NNE 4CR 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 35 SSE GUC 45 NNE 4BL 30 NE BCE 50 SSW P38 65 NE TPH 35 NE U31 20 NNE ENV 40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70 NW OWY 50 SE BNO 25 NNW BNO 35 E RDM 25 SW RDM 55 SSE EUG 25 NNW OTH ...CONT... 30 NW CAR 40 E BML 20 SSE EEN 30 N BDR 20 NE TTN 35 N BWI 20 E LBE 10 NW FKL 55 N ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S GA...SRN SC AND NRN FL... ...NRN PLAINS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL MT SEWD THROUGH THE BIG HORNS OF WY THEN FARTHER SE THROUGH SERN WY. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS THE UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SUPPORTED BY INCREASING ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...SRN GA...NRN FL AND SRN SC... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM SRN GA INTO SRN SC WHERE PARTIAL SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SOME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO AOB 800 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE AS STORMS MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM S CNTRL GA EWD INTO SRN SC WHERE THE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ...SWRN TX... THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER SWRN TX WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY WITH HEIGHT IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 00:45:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 19:45:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506020055.j520sxZT021689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020052 SWODY1 SPC AC 020050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 35 SSE GFK 20 NW ATY 55 SSW MHE LBF 30 SW IML 15 WSW AKO 35 W SNY 25 N AIA 25 E RAP 40 S REJ 35 NW REJ 45 SE GDV 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 40 NNW CLL 40 E DAL 20 E PRX 35 NE TXK 45 N MLU 25 SW JAN 45 E LUL 20 S SEM 30 SSW ANB 25 E RMG 30 NE SPA 30 N FAY 40 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W INL 25 NNW BRD 25 SW RWF 20 ENE OLU 35 N RSL 10 WSW GCK 45 S LHX 30 S U17 25 N SGU 50 NNW P38 35 WSW ELY 60 NNW ELY 20 NNE ENV 40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70 NW OWY 50 SE BNO 35 WNW BNO 65 ENE RDM 50 WNW PDT 30 ENE EPH 30 N 63S ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 20 NNE LEB 25 SW EEN 10 E POU 30 E AVP 20 NE IPT BFD 30 NW JHW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AXIS IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORT THIS WITH A SLOWLY EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MT/NERN WY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS...SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE BY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS ND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH MORE DISCRETE STRUCTURES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...A PLUME OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN MOIST SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES MAY BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING INTENSIFIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE INABILITY TO TAP LOWER TERRAIN BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHIELD BENEATH CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE HAS GRADUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION SPREADS ENEWD. ...SERN U.S... EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMPLEX ELONGATING ZONE OF HIGH LEVEL VORTICITY FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...NNEWD INTO NRN GA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY HOLDING ALONG E-W BOUNDARY WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER FROM AL/GA BORDER INTO SRN SC. THIS MAY TEND TO KEEP ACTIVITY FOCUSED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGER EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/ERN TN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OR PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 05:58:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 00:58:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506020608.j5268ebP019153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020607 SWODY1 SPC AC 020605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE LAA LIC 40 WSW SNY 45 N IML 35 WNW BBW 30 SE BUB 35 SSE HSI 30 NW HUT 40 E DDC 35 SW GCK 45 NE LAA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 10 NW 9V9 45 SW ABR 45 NNW MBG 40 NW BIS 50 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MLB 20 S FMY ...CONT... 20 SSW CEW 30 N DHN 20 NW LGC 15 NNE ATL 15 WNW AGS CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE 81V 40 W GCC 45 SW BPI 15 N EVW 40 NNE VEL 25 NNW LAR 25 WSW CDR 25 SW PHP 30 WNW PHP 40 N RAP 15 ENE 81V ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 50 WSW RHI 40 SSW LSE 30 S ALO 10 ENE SZL 30 ESE SGF 20 N HOT 15 N ELD 20 SW GLH 35 S JBR 20 WNW MDH 30 SSE HUF 50 W LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... HUL 25 SE RUT 45 SE UCA 35 WNW SYR ...CONT... 25 NNE GLS 45 ESE CLL 35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 65 SW GDP 30 S ROW 40 SSW CVS 50 E TCC 20 W DHT 30 SE TAD 20 WNW RTN 15 ENE SAF 60 S GNT 55 SE SOW 30 S SOW INW 45 NNE INW 50 WSW FMN 15 WNW FMN 30 N DRO 40 S MTJ 30 WNW U17 25 SSE P38 30 ESE U31 25 E U31 70 SW BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 25 ESE DLN 10 SSW LVM 40 WNW 3HT 50 WSW GTF 40 E GEG 50 SE 4OM 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN CO INTO SRN NEB AND WRN/NRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN U.S.... ...PLAINS... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD. RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SFC FRONT WILL ELONGATE IN A N-S FASHION ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...SWWD INTO NERN CO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY THIS MORNING...NOTABLE INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER NWRN TX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AS FAR AS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AIRMASS TO RETURN ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 IN ECNTRL CO. STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO NERN CO WHERE DEEP ELY COMPONENT SHOULD EASILY ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BY 21Z BEFORE SPREADING EWD TOWARD SWRN NEB/WRN KS. IF DEW POINTS CAN HOLD NEAR 60 INTO THIS REGION AN AXIS OF SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG SHOULD EXTEND INTO NWRN KS BY 00Z AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. TORNADOES ARE LIKELY IN HIGHER MOISTURE ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW. IN ADDITION...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH TIME...AN ELONGATED COMPLEX MCS SHOULD EVOLVE BEFORE SPREADING INTO SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRY LINE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NWRN TX INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. VEERING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND SUFFICIENTLY COOL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S...VERY UNSTABLE PROFILES WILL DEVELOP WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. INCREASING LLJ WILL ALLOW DISCRETE STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS WRN OK BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENS LATE IN THE EVENING. WELL AFTER 06Z...STRONG SRN STEAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS SRN NM/FAR WEST TX. INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SYSTEM TO INCREASE SPEED AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO WEST TX FOR LATE NIGHT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FORCED LINE OF TSTMS COULD EASILY DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN U.S... 00Z GFS SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GA INTO NRN FL AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. EARLY THIS MORNING...MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAD SPREAD INLAND TO NEAR THE WEDGE FRONT OVER NRN GA/SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EPISODIC CONVECTIVE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE PERIOD...PEAKING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VEERED FLOW BUT SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR/MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL OR PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES WITH LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS AS LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 12:24:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 07:24:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506021234.j52CYa1c017314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021232 SWODY1 SPC AC 021231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC AKO 30 NW IML LBF HSI HUT END 45 NNE CSM GAG LBL LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 JMS 60 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CEW 30 N DHN 20 NW LGC 15 NNE ATL 15 WNW AGS CRE ...CONT... 10 SE MLB 20 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CDR 60 NE CDR 30 ENE PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 15 N EVW 40 NNE VEL 25 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 65 SW GDP 30 S ROW 40 SSW CVS 50 E TCC 20 W DHT 30 SE TAD 20 WNW RTN 15 ENE SAF 20 NW ONM 35 WNW SVC 30 S SOW 30 NNW SOW 50 WSW GUP 30 N GUP 10 S FMN 10 ESE CEZ 20 S 4BL 40 N PGA 25 SSE P38 30 ESE U31 25 E U31 70 SW BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 25 ESE DLN 10 SSW LVM 40 WNW 3HT 50 WSW GTF 40 E GEG 50 SE 4OM 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 45 NNW EAU 45 SSE RST 30 S ALO 10 ENE SZL 30 ESE SGF 20 N HOT 15 N ELD 20 SW GLH 35 S JBR 25 WNW MDH BMG 40 NW LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART ...CONT... 25 NNE GLS 45 ESE CLL 35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NEB...AND NORTHWEST OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM BAJA CA INTO PARTS OF NM/WEST TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB/NWRN OK... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BECOME WELL-DEFINED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KS...CURVING WESTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL CO. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. RATHER STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST CO BY AROUND 21Z. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO SOUTHWEST KS...AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS STORMS AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN KS AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OK. ...OK/TX DRYLINE... SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR MUCH OF TODAY...RESULTING IN HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DRYLINE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER WESTERN NM WHICH MAY APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND WEAK UVVS AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEB. THESE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CO. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED...BUT MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEB. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD/ND/MN. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER MS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THIS REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F...AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. LACK OF A CAP AND BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM AL ACROSS GA/SC AND NORTH FL. A FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 16:09:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 11:09:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506021619.j52GJbNd028678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021613 SWODY1 SPC AC 021612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC AKO 30 NW IML LBF HSI HUT END 45 NNE CSM GAG LBL LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 50 WSW FAR 70 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AYS 35 WSW VLD 15 S DHN 15 ENE TOI 35 NNW MCN 40 WSW AGS 40 NW CHS 10 E CHS 40 NE SSI 25 SSE AYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GLS 45 ESE CLL 35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 W CDR 60 NE CDR 30 ENE PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 15 N EVW 40 NNE VEL 25 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 70 E ELO 55 SSE DLH 40 ESE MSP 25 SW MCW 20 ENE MKC 15 ENE JLN 35 SE FSM 20 ESE TXK 35 SSW GLH 35 S JBR 20 N MDH 10 SSE BMG 25 WNW LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 50 NE PHX 15 S FMN 25 SE 4BL 45 SSW SGU 15 E DRA 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 S ROW 45 ENE ROW 40 ENE 4CR 25 NNE TCS 40 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NEB AND NORTHWEST OK...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY...A COUPLE IMPORTANT S/WVS WILL BE AFFECTING THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST GULF AIR IS STREAMING NWD THRU THE SRN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY RESIDE. WITH STRONG HEATING...PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB/NWRN OK... MORNING ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO NRN CO...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW IN SERN CO...N/NELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ERN CO. APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOTED ON WV/IR IMAGERY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AM...WILL DEEPEN SURFACE LOW SE CO AND INCREASE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NERN CO AND SWRN NEB. ALSO DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM LOW THRU THE TX PANHANDLE SEPARATING A AIR MASS TO THE E THAT WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 4000 J/KG AND A VERY WARM/DRY SWLY FLOW TO W OF DRY LINE. 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STRONG VEERING IN LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE BY TIME OF SURFACE INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON. VICINITY OF NERN CO WHERE UPSLOPE STRONGEST AND PROXIMITY OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL WIND MAX EXPECTED TO BE AREA OF INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THEY TAP INTO THE PLUME OF HIGH INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WRN KS THUS THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AFTER DARK AS THEY PROPAGATE INTO THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT DURING WITH THIS PROCESS INTO KS AND SRN NEB. ...OK/TX DRYLINE... RIDGING AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL BE ACROSS DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CAPPED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG HEATING BOTH SIDES OF DRY LINE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 60S F WILL CREATE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF DRY LINE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN MLCAPES TO NEAR 4000 J/KG. AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT VICINITY DRY LINE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SWD DOWN THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING POSSIBLY INTO SWRN TX AS THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING SRN BRANCH SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY. ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND A LESSER BUT STILL CHANCE OF TORNADOS. EFFECTS LATER TONIGHT OF S/WV FROM BAJA THAT WILL BE ENTERING SWRN TX UNCLEAR GIVEN THE CAP THAT WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. BUT MID LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT A MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS THAN NOW FORECASTED. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD TOWARD WRN MN BORDER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN DRIFTS WWD. SLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ENABLE MLCAPES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... REF MCD 1120 LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE WEAKENED PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS WARM SECTOR IN SERN STATES. HOWEVER WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE TO S OF SURFACE WEDGE E OF APPALACHIANS AND THE GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH AL/MS...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 20:13:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 15:13:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506022023.j52KNimc021406@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022012 SWODY1 SPC AC 022011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC 20 NW AKO 20 E SNY 25 NW LBF 10 W EAR 15 ENE RSL 35 SE P28 50 SSW P28 35 NW GAG 35 NW LBL LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 10 SSE AYS 20 WSW VLD 25 SE PFN ...CONT... 15 ESE PNS 45 NNW CEW 15 ENE MGM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AHN 15 SSW CAE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 50 WSW FAR 70 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 S ROW 45 ENE ROW 40 ENE 4CR 25 NNE TCS 40 SW DMN ...CONT... 85 SSE GBN 35 W SOW 15 S FMN 25 NW CEZ 35 SW BCE 20 S P38 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 25 W CDR 40 NNE CDR 20 N PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 25 ENE EVW 40 NNE VEL 45 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 80 E ELO 30 ESE MSP 30 SSE FOD 20 ESE MKC 30 SSW PGO 45 SSW TYR 30 S AUS 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 7R4 25 SE MLU 60 W MEM 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BMG 20 NW LUK 20 SW 5I3 35 E DAN 35 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN CO...WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN U.S.... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL KS NWWD TO JUST S OF HILL CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GOODLAND. THE ERN PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD THROUGH E CNTRL KS WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS PERSISTS. A SURFACE LOW WAS INDICATED OVER EXTREME SWRN KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TX. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN CO. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SWRN KS...ERN CO THROUGH WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF NWRN TX...WRN OK INTO SWRN KS TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED. CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED ACROSS SW KS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z RAOB FROM DDC. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH KS AND NEB THIS EVENING. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD THROUGH CO AND MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS ACROSS KS AND NEB LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...SERN STATES... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT FROM SRN AL...INTO SRN GA AND ERN SC. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SWRN TX... FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO WRN TX LATER TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 20:51:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 15:51:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506022101.j52L1jRv012681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022044 SWODY1 SPC AC 022042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 022045Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LAA 25 SW AKO 20 E SNY 25 NW LBF 10 W EAR 15 ENE RSL 35 SE P28 50 SSW P28 35 NW GAG 30 NW LBL 15 WNW LAA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 10 SSE AYS 20 WSW VLD 25 SE PFN ...CONT... 15 ESE PNS 45 NNW CEW 15 ENE MGM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AHN 15 SSW CAE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 20 W EHA 25 SW LHX 15 WSW PUB 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 50 WSW FAR 70 NNW GFK ...CONT... 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 S ROW 45 ENE ROW 40 ENE 4CR 25 NNE TCS 40 SW DMN ...CONT... 85 SSE GBN 35 W SOW 15 S FMN 25 NW CEZ 35 SW BCE 20 S P38 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 25 W CDR 40 NNE CDR 20 N PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 25 ENE EVW 40 NNE VEL 45 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 80 E ELO 30 ESE MSP 30 SSE FOD 20 ESE MKC 30 SSW PGO 45 SSW TYR 30 S AUS 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 7R4 25 SE MLU 60 W MEM 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BMG 20 NW LUK 20 SW 5I3 35 E DAN 35 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN CO...WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN U.S.... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO GRAPHIC ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL KS NWWD TO JUST S OF HILL CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GOODLAND. THE ERN PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD THROUGH E CNTRL KS WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS PERSISTS. A SURFACE LOW WAS INDICATED OVER EXTREME SWRN KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TX. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN CO. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SWRN KS...ERN CO THROUGH WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF NWRN TX...WRN OK INTO SWRN KS TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED. CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED ACROSS SW KS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z RAOB FROM DDC. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH KS AND NEB THIS EVENING. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD THROUGH CO AND MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS ACROSS KS AND NEB LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...SERN STATES... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT FROM SRN AL...INTO SRN GA AND ERN SC. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SWRN TX... FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO WRN TX LATER TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 00:48:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 19:48:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506030057.j530vqPQ024153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030054 SWODY1 SPC AC 030053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LIC 40 SE AKO 10 SSE IML 30 NNE MCK 15 SSE EAR 20 NNE CNK 20 S SLN 20 NNW P28 30 NNW LBL 25 NNW LHX 15 S LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 W EHA 25 SSW PUB COS 35 ENE DEN 15 SSW SNY 9V9 10 NNW HON 15 SW ATY 40 NE BKX 25 WSW RWF 15 SSE OTG 40 SSW SPW 30 S TOP 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 35 W SOW 15 S FMN 25 NW CEZ 35 SW BCE 20 S P38 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 80 E ELO 30 ESE MSP 30 SSE FOD 20 ESE MKC 30 SSW PGO 45 SSW TYR 30 S AUS 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CDR 40 NNE CDR 20 N PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 55 SW COD 45 NE MLD EVW 40 WNW VEL 45 NNW LAR 25 W CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 7R4 25 SE MLU 60 W MEM 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BMG 20 NW LUK 20 SW 5I3 35 E DAN 35 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO...ACROSS MUCH OF KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX...NWD INTO SERN SD... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE SPREADING EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF ERN CO. FAVORABLE MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN EWD PROPAGATION INTO NWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO NRN KS SUGGESTS AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD WITH TIME BEGIN TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. DAMAGING SQUALL LINE MAY EMERGE OVER NCNTRL KS BY 06Z AS RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REORIENTS ITSELF ACROSS THIS PORTION OF KS. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG ACROSS ECNTRL CO INTO WRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION STRUGGLED ALONG DRY LINE SURGE INTO SWRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO MAY INDUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH COULD SPREAD BACK INTO THIS PORTION OF KS LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK LATE. ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEFINED IN BOTH WV AND NOW MORE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY...PER THICKENING CONVECTION WITHIN BROADENING BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE FROM SWRN NM INTO NRN MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTENSIFYING/EXPANDING SOUTH OF ELP INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. WITH TIME SELY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TX ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND NEWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE FROM SOUTH OF MAF...NEWD TOWARD LBB LATER THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 05:50:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 00:50:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506030600.j5360QoG012767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030557 SWODY1 SPC AC 030556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 SSE LBB 25 ESE AMA 20 ESE DHT 30 NNW RTN 30 SW COS 30 WSW LIC 50 W GLD 10 WSW MCK 20 SE BUB 25 N OFK 40 E SUX 35 NNW DSM 20 NNW IRK 40 WSW JEF 40 ESE SGF 30 N HOT 15 N TXK TYR 25 SSE AUS 60 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAR 35 N BGR 25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW CDR 20 SSW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 40 WSW CPR 20 ENE RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 WSW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 55 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE 7R4 45 SW POE 50 S LFK PSX 10 S NIR 30 W MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 35 W INK 35 NW HOB 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 SW INW 25 SSE GCN 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM SERN NEB/SWRN IA TO SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT TO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30 M TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY 04/00Z. MORE SPECIFICALLY THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES OF CONCERN THAT SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD...1) EJECTING NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 2) CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. SRN MOST SHORTWAVE IS WELL DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR ELP...SWD INTO CNTRL MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS TX/OK EARLY WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. GFS IS QUICKER MOVING THIS FEATURE EAST OF I-35...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SURGED WEST OF MAF. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z. IT APPEARS MULTIPLE CLUSTERS...OR PERHAPS AN ELONGATED MCS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM NEAR CDS TO JCT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PROPAGATING ENEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/NRN TX INTO SRN OK BY MID DAY. ALTHOUGH OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. STORM MODE/EVOLUTION WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POTENTIAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NWRN TX. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK FOR REDEVELOPMENT BENEATH MODERATE MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW. IF SO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER NW INTO SERN CO...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CO. IT APPEARS 50S DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY PEAK HEATING. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 21-00Z NORTH OF WEAK SFC LOW. STRONG VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL LEND TO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO SWRN KS. MODELS INSIST LLJ WILL INCREASE AND FOCUS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST THINKING IS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS SFC FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE EAST ACROSS KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 12:34:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 07:34:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506031244.j53CiMY8005464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031232 SWODY1 SPC AC 031231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 SSE LBB 25 SSW AMA 20 SSE CAO PUB 35 NW COS DEN 35 SSE AKO 25 WSW MCK 30 NE ANW 40 WSW ABR 55 NNE ATY RWF 30 ENE FOD 20 NNW IRK 40 WSW JEF 40 ESE SGF 30 N HOT 15 N TXK TYR 25 SSE AUS 60 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAR 35 N BGR 25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW CDR 20 SSW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 40 WSW CPR 20 ENE RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 WSW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 55 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 35 W INK 35 NW HOB 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE 7R4 45 SW POE 50 S LFK 60 NNE VCT 25 NNE NIR 10 E MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/TX. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES...IT APPEARS THAT PARTS OF THIS REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY. ...TX/OK TODAY... BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX INTO WESTERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL STILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTH TX AND MUCH OF OK. STORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...AND WESTERN AR BY EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. IF POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING CAN DEVELOP...TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED. ...TX PNHDL/WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION APPEAR LIKELY TO LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING OVER WESTERN OK TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THE CONDITION OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS SUSPECT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AFFECT OF MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. IF THESE CONDITIONS CAN DEVELOP...AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD EXIST WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK DURING THE EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THIS AREA AS EVOLUTION OF MORNING CONVECTION BECOMES APPARENT. ...ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON... NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE WESTWARD IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION BY MID AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE DEN AREA. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDING IN CENTRAL CO APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...NEB/IA/SD/MN... OVERNIGHT MCS REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST KS AND WESTERN IA. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN-COOLED AND STABLE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD DESTABILIZE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WARM ADVECTION ATOP REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...FL... VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THIS REGION TODAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM OVER CUBA. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS OR A FEW TORNADOES. WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE AT 1630Z IF TRENDS SUGGEST GREATER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 16:42:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 11:42:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506031652.j53GqM9r027773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031650 SWODY1 SPC AC 031649 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 SW BWD 40 SSW SPS 45 SSE LBB 40 W EHA PUB 20 SE DEN 20 E FCL 35 E CYS 55 NNE BUB 10 S BIS 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 70 N GFK 50 WNW AXN 15 NE BKX 30 NNW IRK JEF 40 E HRO 20 E SHV 50 ESE LFK 30 NE GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S FMY 20 NW AGR 15 NW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 55 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 25 SW P07 45 SSE MAF 45 N MAF 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EPM 20 SW BGR 25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 10 SW DGW 25 WSW CDR 15 SW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NEWD OUT SERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ND SWD INTO KS AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH...BUT SURFACE PATTERN WAS GENERALLY CHAOTIC AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ...TX/OK... BAND OF STORMS FROM NWRN TX SWD INTO CENTRAL TX WERE MOVING EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF NM TROUGH. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED AT MID MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK AND CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX AS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING AND HEATING AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT DEEP LATER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS SRN TX IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS MAIN FORCING WILL LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE LESS VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN CAP. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO WLY AND BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO IF SURFACE BASED STORMS DO DEVELOP...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION HAVE SO FAR LIMITED HEATING...THOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SPREAD IN...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NORTH OF LBB AND IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO EJECT EWD INTO WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THESE STORMS EVOLVE ...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND A 45 KT WLY LEVEL MID WIND MAX WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ...ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON... NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DEEP EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW STRONGER HEATING SOME UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...FORCING AHEAD OF UTAH TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ...NEB/IA/SD/ND... CLOUDS HAVE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR POCKETS OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...FL... THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA. THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THIS CONVECTION IS UNSTABLE AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ...NRN FL PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SC... AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WIDESPREAD AND EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..IMY/GUYER.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 20:12:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 15:12:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506032022.j53KM1YY026859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032015 SWODY1 SPC AC 032014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 NNE JCT 25 N BWD 65 SW SPS 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 30 ENE CAO 30 NW TAD 20 W COS 25 NW DEN 20 NNE FCL 55 NNE BUB 65 E ANW 25 N 9V9 50 WNW ABR 30 SSE BIS 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 60 W RRT 35 NE FAR 20 NNE BKX 35 NNW IRK JEF 40 E HRO 20 E SHV 40 WSW POE 25 S BPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30 WSW ORL DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 55 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 20 SE P07 45 W SJT 25 NW BGS 50 WSW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EPM 20 SW BGR 25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 10 SW DGW 25 WSW CDR 15 SW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN FL... ...OK AND TX THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY... LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS SLOWING THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS OVER CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NERN TX. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME RECOVERY...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM PARTS OF NRN TX THROUGH OK THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THROUGH OK AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING ACROSS WRN OK...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY EWD THROUGH OK AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN TX AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO SELY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING VORT MAX...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. ...CO AND KS... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. E OF THE MOUNTAINS...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW EXIST. HOWEVER...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AND WIDESPREAD CIRRUS ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY TO AOB 1000 J/KG. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD INTO WRN KS OR SWRN NEB TONIGHT. ...FL... ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AND S FL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...ND... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND ALONG AND E OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 00:50:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 19:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506040100.j5410Tq0024344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040058 SWODY1 SPC AC 040056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW AKO 50 WSW GLD 40 NNW GCK CNK 30 NE MKC 20 ESE SZL SGF 40 SSW JLN GAG 20 SSE CAO 15 ESE RTN 35 SSW PUB 20 ESE FCL 15 NNW AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 W ATL 40 SE CSV 25 SSE LEX 50 E LUK 45 ESE PKB 25 ENE SSU 30 ESE LYH 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE INL 20 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO DYR 35 E MLU 40 WSW POE 55 S CLL 20 ENE HDO 40 SSE JCT 20 NW BWD 10 NNE CDS 30 NW AMA 25 ESE ABQ 25 N SOW 10 NE FLG 40 ENE GCN 30 NNE CNY 40 NNW CAG 20 ESE DGW 65 SSE 81V 35 ESE 81V 35 WNW REJ 35 N 4BQ 65 N SHR 40 E COD 45 SE IDA 40 NNW TWF 50 NNW BOI 30 NNE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SRN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS OK INTO SCNTRL KS...EXTENDING FROM A VORT CENTER NEAR ICT...SEWD TO NEAR TXK. STRONGEST CONVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SERN KS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF AND OUN SEEM TO BE MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF WARM SECTOR WITH A NARROW WEDGE OF REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS NOSING INTO SERN KS...ROUGHLY 7 C/KM. ALTHOUGH ABSOLUTE VALUES OF INSTABILITY ARE NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO BY LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES MAY BE OBSERVED WITH STRONGER STORMS. UPSTREAM...AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM ADAMS COUNTY CO...SWD TO OTERO COUNTY CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AS FAVORABLE SELY INFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DDC SUGGESTS MINIMAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SWRN KS DOWNSTREAM...BUT STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS WRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS LATER TONIGHT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN MAINTAINING EWD PROPAGATION/NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK LATER TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL TX... CENTRAL TX CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE ESCARPMENT...EXTENDING INTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT. IN ALL LIKLIHOOD FORCING APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 05:56:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 00:56:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506040606.j5466La8004302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040603 SWODY1 SPC AC 040601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MKT 30 S RST 25 SSE ALO 40 SSE OTM 25 W COU 25 SSW UMN 25 ESE MKO OKC 25 SW END 20 WNW SLN 25 SSE YKN 25 N OTG 25 ESE MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 45 N SJT 50 SSE CDS 35 SE GAG 40 SE DDC 10 SSW EAR 50 SSW MHE 25 WNW ATY 40 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40 E DLH 40 NE RHI 35 ENE GRB 20 SSE CGX 15 NE DEC 60 NW CGI 45 WNW HOT 45 WNW AUS 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 15 W MLS 10 E SHR 45 SE WRL 45 N RWL 25 ESE FCL 20 WSW AKO 40 SE SNY 15 NNW MHN 30 ENE MBG 70 NW DVL ...CONT... 25 SE P07 20 SSW CDS 15 SW GAG 30 SSW DDC 35 SW GCK 40 NNW EHA 35 NE CAO 35 WSW DHT 45 NW TCC 20 NE SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG 50 ENE SUN 45 W BTM 30 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CLE 25 SW PKB 20 ESE PSK 25 E DAN 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV 15 W MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/IA...SWD INTO OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ARE FROM SWRN TX INTO MN/WI... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY... LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WV/RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS KS TOWARD IA...AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SECONDARY UPSTREAM FEATURE IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN DUE TO TIMING OF UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX...ROUGHLY 70KT...LOCATED OVER SRN NV...IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NRN AZ. MODELS SUGGEST THIS SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NWRN OK/CNTRL KS BY 05/00Z. DESPITE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SHARPENING DRY LINE/FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NOTED FROM SFC LOW OVER ERN NEB...SWWD INTO NWRN OK. THIS SHOULD FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR POTENTIAL EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST THINKING IS ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY OVER ERN KS/WRN MO WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REORIENT ITSELF ACROSS SRN MN/WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY AS MCS DEBRIS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION. OF MORE INTEREST IS THE MARITIME AIRMASS THAT HAS BEGUN TO SURGE NWD ACROSS TX INTO SRN OK. AT 05Z THIS MORNING...SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F HAD RETURNED TO THIS REGION...AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW THIS AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS/MO INTO POSSIBLY EXTREME SERN NEB/SWRN IA BEFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE FROM SERN NEB...SWWD INTO SWRN TX. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS WRN OK...SWWD...WITH AN AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO NERN KS. SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY RANGE FROM 3000-4000 J/KG ALONG THIS ZONE BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY PEAK HEATING AS PARCELS EASILY REACH THEIR LFC WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY. STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND TIMING OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS A BROAD ZONE LATITUDINALLY FROM EAST OF THE SFC LOW...SWD INTO WCNTRL TX. ASIDE FROM HIGHER BASED STRUCTURES ACROSS SWRN TX...MOIST-SHEARED PROFILES FROM OK NWD SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...EXPERIMENTAL TECHNIQUES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOPY SQUALL LINE FROM WRN IA ACROSS MO INTO NERN OK BY 06Z. SRN EXTENT OF MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION OF THE SRN PLAINS WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL IMPINGE ON SWD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY OVER OK. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE EWD-PROGRESSING MCS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING INTO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FARTHER EAST. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 11:04:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 06:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506041114.j54BE9AR025302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041109 SWODY1 SPC AC 041108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30 SSE SUX 25 S FOD P35 20 WNW SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP BIE. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MKT 25 WSW RST ALO IRK 25 W COU UMN MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25 WSW OTG MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 45 N SJT LTS P28 RSL MCK LBF ANW 35 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40 E DLH 40 NE RHI 35 ENE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX TPL 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 20 SSW CDS 15 SW GAG 30 SSW DDC 35 SW GCK 40 NNW EHA 35 NE CAO 35 WSW DHT 45 NW TCC 20 NE SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG 50 ENE SUN 45 W BTM 30 NW CTB ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 15 W MLS 10 E SHR 45 SE WRL 45 N RWL 25 ESE FCL 20 WSW AKO 40 SE SNY 15 NNW MHN 15 NE MBG 60 NE MOT ...CONT... 35 ENE CLE 25 SW PKB 20 ESE PSK 25 E DAN 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV 15 W MSS. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA...EASTERN KS...AND WESTERN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN OK NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MN/WI... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TWO WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING THROUGH THIS REGION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS NOW OVER NORTHWEST MO AND WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE THIS EVENING. ...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OK/TX AND WESTERN AR...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF KS/MO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT STEADILY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP TRANSPORT MARITIME AIR MASS NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NEB AND IA BY MID AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS REGION AFTER MORNING CLOUDS ERODE...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS. EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IA AND WESTERN MO DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS...AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. COMBINATION OF VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND EXTREME INSTABILITY INDICATE THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ...OK/TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING DUE TO LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. ...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD/MN... MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN NEB THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS PROGD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF MN THIS EVENING. ..HART/BANACOS.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 15:46:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 10:46:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506041556.j54FuHZ7017667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041552 SWODY1 SPC AC 041551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30 SSE SUX 30 NNW DSM 40 NE P35 25 NNE SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP BIE. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MSP 40 NE RST 45 W LNR 10 S MLI COU UMN 10 S MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25 WSW OTG 15 SSE MSP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 65 NW ABI 25 NNW LTS P28 RSL MCK LBF ANW 35 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40 E DLH 40 NE RHI 35 ENE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX TPL 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 10 WNW BGS 15 E CDS 45 W CSM 25 SSE LBL 20 SE EHA 25 NE DHT 35 WSW DHT 35 NW TCC 20 NE SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG 50 ENE SUN 45 W BTM 30 NW CTB ...CONT... 25 ESE OLF 40 N MLS 10 E SHR 40 WSW GCC 35 S GCC 30 SSE 81V 30 ENE REJ 20 NNW DIK 25 S ISN 25 ESE OLF ...CONT... 55 NNE CLE 20 WNW MGW 40 E EKN 15 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV 15 W MSS. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA...EASTERN KS...AND WESTERN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN OK NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MN/WI... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SCENARIO OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES INTO PLAINS TODAY. TWO IMPORTANT S/WV TROUGHS WILL PLAY A ROLE... WITH EJECTING IMPULSE MOVING NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONGER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE SURFACE FEATURES THIS MORNING HAVE SEVERAL WEAK LOWS...BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT A LOW MOVING NWD THRU SRN MN AND ANOTHER LOW KS/OK BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. ...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OK/TX AND WESTERN AR...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TIED TO S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP TRANSPORT MARITIME AIR MASS NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NEB AND IA BY MID AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS REGION AFTER MORNING CLOUDS ERODE...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TEMPORARILY PROVIDING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS. EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IA AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS...AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. COMBINATION OF VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND EXTREME INSTABILITY INDICATE THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ...OK/TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES PUSHING 4000 J/KG. PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO AT LEAST AS FAR S AS N CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...PROXIMITY TO MID AND UPPER JET AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... AS LEAD S/WV TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SWLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES. WITH S/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO E OF MN SURFACE LOW ONLY QUESTION AS TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN DURING AFTERNOON ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SURFACE LOW EWD INTO WI. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. CONSIDERED EXTENDING MDT RISK INTO WI...HOWEVER TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO DO SO ATTM. ...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD/MN... WITH APPROACH OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS S/WV ALONG WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS PROGD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF MN THIS EVENING. ...A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:00:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:00:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506042010.j54KA1n5027667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042004 SWODY1 SPC AC 042003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30 SSE SUX 30 NNW DSM 40 NE P35 25 NNE SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP BIE. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MSP 40 NE RST 45 W LNR 10 S MLI COU UMN 10 S MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25 WSW OTG 15 SSE MSP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 65 NW ABI 20 NNW LTS 25 SW P28 50 NE LAA 50 SW IML 55 SW MHN ANW 55 WSW AXN 20 N BRD 15 WSW DLH 25 NNW RHI 40 NE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX ACT 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM CBM HOP SDF IND 25 S DNV MTO 60 NW CGI HOT TYR AUS 65 W COT ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 20 ESE BGS 15 E CDS 45 W CSM 25 SSE LBL 20 SE EHA 60 NNW LVS FMN 40 W PGA CDC SLC PIH BTM 55 NNE FCA ...CONT... 15 WNW CLE 40 ENE EKN 50 SW RIC 35 WNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OLF 40 N MLS 10 E SHR 40 WSW GCC 35 S GCC 30 SSE 81V 30 ENE REJ 20 NNW DIK 25 S ISN 25 ESE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PWM 15 S CON 25 S EEN 15 S PSF 20 WSW ALB 45 NE UCA 35 E MSS. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS NEWD INTO IA AND SERN/MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TH SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED IN WRN NEB AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN FAR NERN NEB BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AND SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED AT MID AFTERNOON IN SERN SD...SWRN NEB AND NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER NEAR LBL. ...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO... A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND WILL OVERSPREAD SERN NEB AND SWRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP LAPSES RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH 18Z SOUNDINGS AT TOP AND OMA INDICATED A WEAK CAP REMAINS ...JET MAX MOVING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF NEB TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPWARD MOTION TO LIFT CAPPING INVERSION. STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND MOST LIKELY STORM INITIATION IS ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT AT MID AFTERNOON EXTENDED NEAR A LWD-SLN-HUT LINE. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...WRN/SRN IA AND WRN/NRN MO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 391. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS PLUS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ALSO...20 KT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND A DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ...OK/TX... AT 19Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED WEST OF LBL WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN OK TO EAST OF A CDS-FST LINE IN WRN TX. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE OKC 18Z SOUNDING...EXPECT DRYLINE ONLY TO MIX EWD TO NEAR A P28-50W OKC-ABI LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 4000-5000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NWD...INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. ALSO...RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...AS LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN TX/OK OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NERN IL AND ERN WI. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MN AND WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NWD INTO MN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING INSTABILITY...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AND VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP OVER NEB/IA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AT THAT TIME. ...CENTRAL AND WRN NEB/EASTERN SD... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NEB AND WILL SPREAD ENEWD ALONG TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH INTO NERN NEB AND SERN SD TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN ACROSS KS AND SERN NEB...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN NEB/ REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 390. ..IMY.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 05:45:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 00:45:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506050556.j555ueJ2032037@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050554 SWODY1 SPC AC 050553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 35 ENE FWA 20 SE SBN 40 WSW MKG 15 NNW MSN 25 NNW VOK 25 WNW RHI 25 NNW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE CMH 10 NW LEX 15 S CKV 10 NW MEM 40 SE PRX 25 E SEP 25 ENE SJT 25 W MAF 45 WNW PVW 15 SSW AMA 45 WNW CSM 20 SSW END 35 SSW SZL 35 W UIN 20 ENE CID 25 S MSP 65 ENE STC 30 E DLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HVR 30 SSE 3HT 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW P07 35 NW INK 50 SSW CVS 35 NNE CVS 25 W AMA 50 SW GAG 40 WNW END 30 ESE EMP 25 WNW OJC FNB 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW LFT 35 WNW POE 20 WSW LFK 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 50 N BIL 25 NNW LND 45 NNE PUC 75 ENE TPH 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 80 NE SVE 60 NE 4LW 55 WSW S80 40 WSW S06 75 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA 20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES... ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORT MAX OVER NERN NEB...LIFTING ENEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL SURGE EWD...ARCING FROM NRN MN...INTO ERN IA EARLY...BEFORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS WI. EARLY MORNING MCS WILL PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL INTO LOWER MI WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING UNTIL AROUND 18Z WHEN COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE AID DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION...AND WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S...FAST MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERS AS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE...BOW LIKE STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE. FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING PORTIONS OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BRUSH CNTRL IL/IND REGION FORCING SW-NE ORIENTED DEEP LAYER CONFLUENCE ZONE INTO THESE STATES. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO EXTREME WRN KY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A BIT WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH...REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS REGION SHOULD HAVE LESS CONTAMINATION FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND THUS DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S/SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES FARTHER NORTH WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...SRN PLAINS... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN OK/NWRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AND IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY AT PEAK HEATING. THIS RESPONSE IS LIKELY DUE TO WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN NV...MOVING ESEWD INTO NRN AZ AT 05Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD APPROACH THE SRN PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHERE EXTREME INSTABILITY...SBCAPE VALUES AOA 4000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AFTER 21Z. STRONG SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS NWRN TX WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO EASILY REACH THEIR LFC WITH ANY EXCUSE FOR CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH TSTM CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE AND DRIFT SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. ...NRN ROCKIES... QUITE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. LATER TODAY...EXTENDING ACROSS WRN MT INTO ID BY MID AFTERNOON. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG EWD-SURGING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS ZONE WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST-MOVING ROBUST TSTMS. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR/FORCING SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 11:56:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 06:56:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506051207.j55C7LO0001163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051204 SWODY1 SPC AC 051203 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL MIE LAF 40 WSW MKG OSH 30 ESE RHI 35 NW IMT 15 NE MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HVR 30 SSE 3HT 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE ZZV LOZ 40 S BNA MEM DUA SPS 55 SSW CDS 40 ENE PVW 45 WNW CSM BVO JLN 25 NW ALN RFD MSP 60 SW DLH 30 E DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 45 S P28 30 ESE EMP 25 WNW OJC FNB 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW LFT 35 WNW POE 20 WSW LFK 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HVR 50 SE LWT 30 NW RKS 45 NNE PUC 75 ENE TPH 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 80 NE SVE 60 NE 4LW 55 WSW S80 40 WSW S06 75 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA 20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN WI...MUCH OF UPPER AND LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...AND NORTHWEST OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHWEST TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MT AND ID... ...ERN WI/ERN UPPER AND LOWER MI/NRN IND/NRN OH... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO STRETCH FROM LOW NEAR DLH...SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE TODAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG FROM UPPER MI ACROSS EASTERN WI AND LOWER MI. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WI OR LAKE MI...SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER/LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND/OH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES /DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OVER 200 M2/S2/ OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND THE EASTERN UP...PRIMARILY WITH STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF FRONT. ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE QUICKLY INTO A SQUALL LINE POSING A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN MN/WRN WI/WRN UPPER MI... MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THIS REGION. PRESENCE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LOW MAY ALSO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL OH/IND INTO PARTS OF KY/TN. THIS AREA WILL BECOME MODERATELY/VERY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY A WEAK CAP...WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ...OK/AR/TX... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX...IN LOCALIZED WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OK/AR. SUFFICIENT HEATING AND A WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL BE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ...ID/MT... POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ARCING FROM NORTHERN CA INTO EASTERN ORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF ID/MT BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF ID AND WESTERN MT. STRONG WINDS FIELDS ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 16:17:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 11:17:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506051628.j55GSssW011362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051624 SWODY1 SPC AC 051622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 S MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25 NW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HVR 30 SSE 3HT 25 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL 40 S BNA MEM 30 SSW DUA 35 N ABI 50 N BGS 15 WSW PVW 35 NW LTS BVO JLN 40 NW ALN 35 W DBQ MSP 60 SW DLH 30 E DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 45 S P28 30 ESE EMP 15 SSE OJC 10 SE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HVR 50 SE LWT 30 NW RKS 45 NNE PUC 25 NNW MLF 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 75 WNW WMC 55 S BNO 55 WSW S80 35 N PUW 45 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA 20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NORTHERN IND AND NORTHWEST OH...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHWEST TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID..... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE A LARGE COLD UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PAC NW THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHARP S/WV TROUGH/VORT MAX ON NEB/IA BORDER MOVES NEWD ACROSS WI BY THIS EVENING WHICH COUPLED WITH THE ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX PROVIDES FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD THRU WRN IA THEN SWWD PLAINS TO SRN TX PANHANDLE. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVING TOWARD LS BY THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY. IN THE PAC NW A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY VICINITY WRN ID BORDER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS WRN MT SWD INTO NRN NV THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT WRN MT WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER SYSTEM TO THE W. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER NEARLY FULL HEATING ALONG WITH MIXING FROM THE INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER MS VALLEY SYSTEM EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS FROM WI/IL EWD. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARDS FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG WI AREA TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER LOWER OH VALLEY TO LWR MI WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE. AS SURFACE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND CAP WEAKENS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH FROM ERN IA NWD TO WRN LS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT COUPLED WITH SOME BACKING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS WI/UPPER MI IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE DEEPENING SUPPORT AN INCREASING SUPERCELL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEGINNING ACROSS WI AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF MI BY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS A FEW TORNADOS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE MORE LINEAR LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO BOWS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS DRIVEN BY INCREASING WINDS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS WI INTO MI. ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STORM INITIATION...MODE WILL AT FIRST BE CELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM NRN IND INTO LWR MI WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. ...MID MS VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS... UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE FRONTAL ZONE AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXISTS. STRONG HEATING AND AVAILABILITY OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING. MLCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARDS FROM 3000 J/KG MID MS VALLEY TO POSSIBLY NEAR 4000 J/KG WRN/NWRN TX. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY OLD BOUNDARIES/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHILE SUPER CELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...THEY SHOULD BE RATHER DISORGANIZED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AREA WILL SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE. ...MT/ID... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AIR MASS LOWER LEVELS IN WARM SECTOR IS SHORT ON MOISTURE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INVERTED VEE TYPE SOUNDINGS. HIGHER THREAT OF HAIL AND POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS WRN MT AS SHEAR INCREASES AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 19:55:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 14:55:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506052006.j55K6aA8032305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052003 SWODY1 SPC AC 052002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 NNW MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25 NW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 50 S S06 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL BNA MKL LIT 25 NNE ABI 50 ESE LBB 30 WSW CDS 35 NNE CSM 25 NW BVO 30 ESE VIH 40 WNW SPI 20 WSW MCW 35 WNW MSP 35 NE BRD 45 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 30 SSW P28 30 SSW SZL 25 NNW SZL 10 ENE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC ...CONT... 45 NNE GGW 45 W 4BQ 55 WSW LAR GJT MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC BNO LWS GEG 45 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID..... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... AT 19Z...STORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NRN IA/ERN MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS LOCATED IN SERN MN TOWARD. DIURNAL HEATING HAD RESULTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 405. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WI AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPPER VORT MAX IN SERN MN MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA. ...MI/IN/NWRN OH... STRONG HEATING EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAD DEVELOPED IN LOWER MI AT MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/ SHEAR SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 404. AN MCV IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH NRN IL AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN IN INTO EXTREME ERN IL. THE FAST MOTION OF THE MCV AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IN AND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406 ...MID MS/TN VALLEYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS... SEVERE CONVECTION IS LESS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HELP TO INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NWRN TX/SWRN OK NEWD INTO NERN OK. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN NWRN TX AND MLCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...MT/ID... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MT AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...ISOLATED STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL LA... MCV NORTH OF HOU IS MOVING NEWD AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SEA BREEZE PLUS STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ..IMY.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 20:13:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:13:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506052024.j55KOVYw006669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052015 SWODY1 SPC AC 052014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 NNW MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25 NW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 50 S S06 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL BNA MKL LIT 25 NNE ABI 50 ESE LBB 30 WSW CDS 35 NNE CSM 25 NW BVO 30 ESE VIH 40 WNW SPI 20 WSW MCW 35 WNW MSP 35 NE BRD 45 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 30 SSW P28 30 SSW SZL 25 NNW SZL 10 ENE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC ...CONT... 45 NNE GGW 45 W 4BQ 55 WSW LAR GJT MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC BNO LWS GEG 45 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID..... CORRECTED TO CHANGE WATCH TYPE IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... AT 19Z...STORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NRN IA/ERN MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS LOCATED IN SERN MN TOWARD. DIURNAL HEATING HAD RESULTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WI AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPPER VORT MAX IN SERN MN MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA. ...MI/IN/NWRN OH... STRONG HEATING EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAD DEVELOPED IN LOWER MI AT MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/ SHEAR SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 404. AN MCV IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH NRN IL AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN IN INTO EXTREME ERN IL. THE FAST MOTION OF THE MCV AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IN AND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406 ...MID MS/TN VALLEYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS... SEVERE CONVECTION IS LESS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HELP TO INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NWRN TX/SWRN OK NEWD INTO NERN OK. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN NWRN TX AND MLCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...MT/ID... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MT AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...ISOLATED STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL LA... MCV NORTH OF HOU IS MOVING NEWD AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SEA BREEZE PLUS STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ..IMY.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 22:09:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 17:09:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506052220.j55MKE90015278@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052216 SWODY1 SPC AC 052214 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 NNW MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25 NW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 50 S S06 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL BNA MKL LIT 25 NNE ABI 50 ESE LBB 30 WSW CDS 35 NNE CSM 25 NW BVO 30 ESE VIH 40 WNW SPI 20 WSW MCW 35 WNW MSP 35 NE BRD 45 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 30 SSW P28 30 SSW SZL 25 NNW SZL 10 ENE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC ...CONT... 45 NNE GGW 45 W 4BQ 55 WSW LAR GJT MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC BNO LWS GEG 45 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID..... CORRECTED TO CHANGE WATCH TYPE IN FIRST PARAGRAPH AND WORDING IN THE MID MS VLY PARAGRAPH ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... AT 19Z...STORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NRN IA/ERN MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS LOCATED IN SERN MN TOWARD. DIURNAL HEATING HAD RESULTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WI AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPPER VORT MAX IN SERN MN MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA. ...MI/IN/NWRN OH... STRONG HEATING EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAD DEVELOPED IN LOWER MI AT MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/ SHEAR SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 404. AN MCV IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH NRN IL AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN IN INTO EXTREME ERN IL. THE FAST MOTION OF THE MCV AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IN AND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406 ...MID MS/TN VALLEYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS... SEVERE CONVECTION IS LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HELP TO INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NWRN TX/SWRN OK NEWD INTO NERN OK. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN NWRN TX AND MLCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...MT/ID... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MT AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...ISOLATED STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL LA... MCV NORTH OF HOU IS MOVING NEWD AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SEA BREEZE PLUS STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ..IMY/RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 00:50:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 19:50:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506060101.j5611OKr007101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060058 SWODY1 SPC AC 060057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 WSW SLC 15 WNW ENV 45 NE SUN 25 N 3DU 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW JHW 30 NNE HTS 50 ENE LEX 30 NW SDF 20 NW BMG 35 WSW FWA 40 NNW FWA 15 NNW AZO 40 SW MKG 30 SSW MKE 30 NNE LNR 15 SW VOK 65 N EAU 95 NNW CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE MRF 45 ESE GDP 40 NNW HOB 45 WSW AMA 30 N END 30 SW BVO 20 NW MLC 35 SSW MLC 25 ENE SPS 55 SSW SJT 10 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT LFK 25 NNE TYR 20 SE FTW 55 NW AUS 55 WSW COT ...CONT... 65 S MRF 10 E GDP 50 N ROW 25 NNE DHT 30 SW ICT 30 SE SZL 30 WSW STL 15 NNW MTO 35 N DNV 25 SW CGX 20 SE DBQ 25 S RST 35 WNW MSP 25 NE HIB 20 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW 45 S GDV 55 ESE REJ 30 SSW PHP 15 SE CDR 20 ESE CYS 55 ENE CAG 30 NNE U28 MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC 70 ESE 4LW BNO 50 SSE RDM 30 NNW LMT 15 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE JAX 55 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PBG 20 SSW AOO 30 SSW BLF 35 WNW SOP 20 SE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CNTRL/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES... ...CNTRL/UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE CONGEALED INTO A SQUALL LINE. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM EXHIBITS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPES. GIVEN THAT THE WIND PROFILE IS LARGELY WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THE COLUMN AND THE WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...LEADING EDGE OF THE TSTMS COULD BOW AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OH AND ERN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...TRACK OF A RESIDUAL MCV APPEARS TO BE TRAVELING THROUGH CNTRL LOWER MI. AMBIENT VORTICITY PRESENT IN A LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN LOWER MI COULD CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF TORNADOGENESIS WITH THESE CELLS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. UPSTREAM...VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH PARENT UPPER CYCLONE WAS SHIFTING ENEWD FROM ERN WI TOWARD UPPER AND NWRN LOWER MI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEDGE OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUGGESTS STORMS COULD MAINTAIN IDENTITY THROUGH THE EVENING. VARIOUS BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS WITHIN A VORTICITY RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS... TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO THRIVE IN SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...NAMELY SWRN OK...TX S PLAINS AND SWRN TX HIGHER TERRAIN. FLOW REGIME IS FAVORABLE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY SUPERCELL STORMS WITH SPLIT POTENTIAL. SO FAR...THE STORM OVER SWRN OK HAS REMAINED DISCRETE WITH NO COMPETITION FROM NEARBY STORMS. THE STORMS ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS HAVE BECOME RATHER RANDOM WITH MANY INTERACTIONS/ANVIL SEEDING CONTRIBUTING TO WIDE DISTRIBUTION OF SEVERE THREATS. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL. BUT...GIVEN A STRONG DEVIANT RIGHT MOTION...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PRIND THAT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE/LLJ INTENSIFIES...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO SMALL MCS/S AND LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF W TX INTO SWRN OK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/HEAT BURSTS. ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...1000-1500 MLCAPE AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE CELLS MAY LAST INTO LATE EVENING...BUT APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DIURNAL AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AS PAC NW UPPER LOW SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD...SPEED MAXIMA WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS OF TSTMS ROTATING NEWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN/NRN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE LOW...BACKING LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOOPY LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER MS VLY... REMNANT MCV/LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SABINE/LOWER MS VLYS THIS EVENING. TSTMS SEEMED TO PREFER THE INSTABILITY ALONG THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS FEATURE DURING PEAK HEATING WITH ATTENDANT MICROBURST/HAIL THREATS. SCENARIO SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS TO RETRACT BACK TOWARD THE NUCLEUS OF THE IMPULSE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..RACY.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 05:38:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 00:38:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506060549.j565nB4x015767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060547 SWODY1 SPC AC 060545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 45 WNW CVS 30 W EHA 20 N GCK 40 S DDC 40 NW CDS 15 NNW BGS 25 SSW P07. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 20 N JMS 30 N RWF 35 NE OTG 25 SW OTG 30 SW YKN 30 NE ANW 30 WSW PHP 55 WSW RAP 50 N DGW 35 SSW CPR 40 ENE RKS 50 ENE JAC 30 SE LVM 45 ESE GTF 40 ENE GTF 30 NE CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 30 W EEN 15 NW ISP 25 S DOV 40 W NHK 15 SW SHD MGW 20 NNE DUJ 35 SE ROC 20 SSE ART 15 W MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 50 WNW BPT 20 SSW LFK 30 S TYR 40 S DAL 10 SE SEP 30 SW BWD 35 WNW JCT 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 30 SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX COS 25 W GJT 20 WNW U28 15 N ELY 10 E RNO 45 SSW SVE 20 SSE MHS 30 SE EUG 30 S AST ...CONT... 40 NE 4OM 25 NE EPH 40 W PUW 25 SE LWS 40 WNW 27U DLN 25 NNW BZN 20 S GTF 45 SSE CTB 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 25 S TVF 20 SSW BRD MSP 15 S MCW 40 NNE FNB 15 WNW STJ 25 ENE MKC 45 SSE MTO 35 ESE BMG 10 S DAY 35 SSE FDY 50 NNW MFD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NY SWD TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS... ...ERN NY SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS ERN NY. IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL HEAT RAPIDLY AS MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CURRENT OH VLY STORMS PASSES N OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY MID-DAY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE-TROUGH AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE OH VLY ALONG A WEAK FRONT. BUT...THE FLOW REGIME IS WEAKER HERE AND ONLY ISOLD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED. ...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS... PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD MONDAY...MAINTAINING A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. DEFAULT CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER NERN WY...WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION PREFERRED. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SCNTRL MT/WY MOUNTAINS BY MID-DAY. STORMS ARE APT TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING ACROSS ERN MT AND NERN WY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MT MAY RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS QUICKLY...MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A ZONE WHERE CELLS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE ACROSS SERN WY/NERN WY FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. LLJ WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AND A SEVERE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE EWD ALONG/N OF AN E-W FRONT FROM PARTS OF ND/SD EWD TOWARD SWRN/WCNTRL MN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN BENEATH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...A SUBTLE HIGH-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD FROM BAJA AND MAY AUGMENT LARGE SCALE VENTING BY PEAK HEATING MONDAY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMER...SURFACE WILL HEAT CONSIDERABLY AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX TO SWRN KS 21-00Z. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO FAR FROM THE INITIATING SOURCE DURING THE EVENING AND DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 12:33:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 07:33:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506061244.j56CimgB020226@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061242 SWODY1 SPC AC 061240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 30 W EEN 15 NW ISP 10 E DOV 40 W NHK 20 N SHD MGW 20 NNE DUJ 35 SE ROC 40 NNE ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 N ROW 45 NNE CAO 35 SSW GLD 15 S IML 40 WSW MHN 35 ENE CDR 40 SSW RAP 60 NNE DGW 20 SSE CPR 45 WSW CPR 25 SW SHR 30 SSE LWT 50 S HVR 35 NNW HVR ...CONT... 50 N MOT 35 SSE AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 NNW SUX 30 WSW OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25 SW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 10 NNE VCT 45 NNW VCT 25 E SAT 25 E HDO 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 30 SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX COS 25 W GJT 20 WNW U28 55 NW MLF 10 E RNO 45 SSW SVE 20 SSE MHS 25 NNE 4BK 40 SSW OTH ...CONT... 40 NE 4OM 25 NE EPH 40 W PUW 25 SE LWS 40 WNW 27U DLN 25 NNW BZN 20 S GTF 45 SSE CTB 55 WNW CTB ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 25 S TVF 20 SSW BRD MSP 15 S MCW 40 NNE FNB 15 WNW STJ 45 SSE P35 35 NNW SLO 35 ESE BMG 10 S DAY 40 NNW CMH 25 W CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NY/PA SWD TO THE NRN CHESAPEAKE AREA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA... A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW OVER WA/ORE WILL DRIFT INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM NV THIS MORNING TO WY/MT BY THIS EVENING. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY INVOF SE MT IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SPEED MAX...WHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT NWD AND CONSOLIDATE AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN SD. THOUGH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SE OF SD...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LEE CYCLONE...AND PERHAPS TO THE W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT...AND THEN SPREAD EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING AND THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AND WIND PROFILES WITH SELY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH ROUGHLY 30 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN SD...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOW ECHO OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...PA/NY AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EWD TO WRN PA/NY THIS EVENING AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM ERN LOWER MI TO WRN OH THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL PA/NY BY THIS EVENING...WHILE A N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN NY DRIFTS EWD. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN PA/NY FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND NWD INTO ERN PA/NY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INVOF OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BY MIDDAY AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN WRN PA MAY PERSIST AS WELL. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. SOMEWHAT BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE ERN NY BORDER...AS WELL AS CHANNELED SLY FLOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A SUPERCELL THREAT...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ...HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE... THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TODAY ACROSS W TX IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHILE NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS KS/NEB. MEANWHILE...THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN SOME BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE/WEAK...DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 16:01:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 11:01:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506061612.j56GCIE9021159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061607 SWODY1 SPC AC 061606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW AOO 25 WSW PSB 20 N ITH 25 SE ART 20 WSW SLK 10 SSE PBG 15 NW MPV 10 ENE RUT 25 ENE PSF 20 SW BDL 10 WSW BDR 20 SSW EWR 10 W PHL 35 W ILG HGR 40 SSW AOO 25 WSW AOO. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OLF 40 NE OLF 25 N ISN 30 WNW P24 45 N MBG 25 SSE MBG 65 N PHP 10 NNE REJ 40 N 4BQ 30 SW OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 ESE EEN 15 N GON 10 E DOV 40 W NHK 25 S 5I3 40 W HTS 15 NE YNG 35 ESE ROC 40 NNE ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 N ROW 45 NNE CAO 35 SSW GLD 15 S IML 40 WSW MHN 35 ENE CDR 40 SSW RAP 60 NNE DGW 20 SSE CPR 45 WSW CPR 25 SW SHR 30 SSE LWT 50 S HVR 35 NNW HVR ...CONT... 50 N MOT 35 SSE AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 NNW SUX 30 WSW OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25 SW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 10 ESE NIR 30 NNW ALI 40 ENE LRD 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 30 SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX COS 30 SW GJT 55 WNW MLF 10 E RNO 45 SSW SVE 40 SE EKA 15 WNW EKA ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG 50 SSW S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE FCA ...CONT... 45 WNW INL 15 N HIB 45 SSW DLH 40 ESE MSP RST 25 SSE MCW 40 WNW DSM 40 NNE FNB 15 NE STJ 35 SSW IRK 35 SSE SPI 25 ENE BMG 10 S DAY 40 NNW CMH 25 W CLE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW JERSEY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OH VALLEY TO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN PORTION NRN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE COLD UPPER LOW PAC NW WITH SIG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX ROTATING NEWD FROM NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES EWD FROM GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY 40-50KT MID LEVEL JET. AT THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL WY ATTM WILL DEEPEN NEWD WITH APPROACH OF THE S/WV TROUGH INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN THE NORTHEAST A LARGE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO HAS A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE STABLE MARINE AIR IS PRESENT. ...NERN STATES... ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WRN PA/NY ARE FEEDING OFF AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS THEY MOVE EWD. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES TO 3500 J/KG EWD TO WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM FROM SFC-3KM THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT... ACCOMPANYING THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY PROPAGATE RAPIDLY E/NEWD TO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DURING AFTERNOON FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ERN NY/NERN PA. REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO WRN PA/WV DURING MID AFTERNOON WHERE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY UNSTABLE. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE/BOWS AND MOVE BACK ACROSS SOME OF AREA NOW BEING AFFECTED BY CURRENT SEVERE AS WELL AS FURTHER S INTO MD/NRN VA. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NEWD OUT OF WY ALONG WITH INCREASING UPWARD MOTION AND WINDS WITH APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS E/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES PRODUCE MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY ERN MT. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD DURING EVENING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES. A SEVERE MCS WILL THEN LIKELY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS ND FEEDING OFF 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY SRN HIGH PLAINS...A VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE FROM TX/NM BORDER NWD TO SD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE WITHIN THIS ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL. A LITTLE MORE SHEAR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...TN/LOWER MS VALLEY... REF MCD 1195 AND 1196 WHILE SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK THROUGHOUT THIS REGION...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 20:07:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 15:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506062018.j56KIxNq008308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062013 SWODY1 SPC AC 062012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OLF 40 NE OLF 25 ENE ISN 45 SE JMS 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW ABR 65 N PHP 10 NNE REJ 40 N 4BQ 30 SW OLF. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MGW DUJ 20 N PSB 10 SE IPT 10 SW AVP 45 N MSV 20 NNE UCA 25 E SLK 20 NNW RUT 30 E POU TTN 10 W PHL 35 WSW MRB 10 NE EKN 35 WSW MGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT STC 30 ENE MKT 30 E FRM OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25 SW P07 ...CONT... 50 WNW MRF 30 ESE 4CR TAD 40 NW AKO 25 E CYS 15 NW CYS 45 S LND BPI 40 NNE JAC 10 NNW 3HT 50 N LWT 30 N HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DOV 30 SW CHO 10 WSW GSP 25 ESE CHA 20 SSE HSV 15 ESE MSL 50 ENE MKL 25 WSW DYR 25 SSE FSM 10 NW FSM 25 N UMN 20 E VIH 30 SSW MTO 50 WNW LUK 35 NW HLG 25 SE ERI ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG 50 SSW S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE FCA ...CONT... 45 WNW INL 15 N HIB 15 SW DLH 15 SW EAU 45 NW DBQ 45 SSW ALO DSM 40 NNE FNB STJ 30 NE SZL 40 SSE UIN 25 N IND 30 N DAY 10 SSE CAK 15 SW ERI ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 10 ESE NIR 30 NNW ALI 40 ENE LRD 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 45 S 4CR 15 NW LVS 15 WSW PUB 30 SW DEN GJT ELY RNO RBL 15 WNW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 30 SW MWN 10 WNW CON BOS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NY SWWD ACROSS NRN NJ...SRN PA AND INTO EXTREME NRN WV AND NRN MD... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MT INTO PORTIONS OF ND/SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/OH AND TN VALLEYS NEWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...NERN STATES... DERECHO MOVING THROUGH ERN NY/NERN PA/NRN NJ WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL. THE MOIST BOUNDARY SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF EWD MOVING DERECHO...ESPECIALLY BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS THE WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE DERECHO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SELY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC ARE RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD INTO NRN WV. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS TO FORM A COLD POOL...WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF PA AND PORTIONS OF NRN MD/WV. FURTHER SOUTH FROM CENTRAL WV EWD ACROSS NRN VA INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER THAN ACROSS PA...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AT MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NERN WY AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SD...WITH 20 KT SELY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ADVECTING MID AND UPPER 50S INTO ERN MT. AT THE SAME...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS WY AND ERN MT WAS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OUT OF NRN UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES...EVEN AS THE STORMS MOVES EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD THIS EVENING. AROUND MID EVENING...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AID STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS. A STRONG COLD POOL SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM LINE LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF ND/NRN SD AND EVENTUALLY SWRN MN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ONCE THE MCS FORMS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...25-35 KT...A VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUPERCELLS APPEARS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR. THE MAIN THEAT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE HAIL...THOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...MID MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... AT MID AFTERNOON...MCV'S WERE LOCATED IN ERN MO...NRN MS AND NEAR FSM. THE SYSTEM IN NRN MS HAS PERSISTED THE PAST 24 HOURS AND APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TN EWD INTO WRN NC AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT...STRONG HEATING AND MODERATELY INSTABILITY AND WEAK COLD POOLS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 00:44:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 19:44:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506070055.j570t8B6013182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070053 SWODY1 SPC AC 070052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ISN 55 NE BIS 55 NNE ABR 25 SE ABR 25 SW MBG 30 NNE REJ 40 SSW GDV 10 SW SDY 35 SE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SBY 15 NW NHK 10 ENE DCA 15 SW ILG TTN 20 ENE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 40 E 4CR 20 WSW CAO 30 NE LAA 45 ENE AKO 40 NNW BFF 15 NNW GCC 60 WSW MLS 70 ESE HVR 55 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 45 S 4CR 15 NW LVS 15 WSW PUB 30 SW DEN GJT ELY RNO RBL 15 WNW EKA ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG 50 SSW S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 35 S LFK 30 ENE CLL 30 ESE DAL 15 NW MKO 35 SE SZL 30 SSE MIE 20 E PIT 35 SSW ELM 25 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E RRT 10 NW DLH 50 S LSE 40 NNE FNB 20 WNW PNC 55 NNE ABI 60 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MOT 40 W BRD MSP 30 NW MCW SUX 35 E GRI 35 E DDC 25 W CDS 60 E FST 20 SE P07. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN MT...SRN ND AND NRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 995 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN ND THEN INTO WCNTRL MN. MOIST ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG/N OF THE LOW/FRONT BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE WY/MT HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY IN THE AFTN. TSTMS HAVE OBVIOUSLY ROOTED INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN MT/NERN WY AND ARE BEING MAINTAINED. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE MADE DEVIANT RIGHT MOTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE MEAN FLOW VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SERN/ECNTRL MT. STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WRN DAKS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THREATS FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM ECNTRL MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND. AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO DIURNALLY ACCELERATE LATER THIS EVENING... TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND DEVELOP/MOVE DOWNSTREAM...ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. AT THAT TIME...SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... DRYLINE WAS AN EFFICIENT TSTM INITIATOR THIS AFTN OWING TO HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND DIFFLUENT/VENTING UPPER FLOW REGIME FROM WRN NEB TO SWRN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE AOA 40 KTS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. PRIND THAT AS THE LLJ INCREASES ON THE PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING...ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S MAY EVOLVE. STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...CNTRL/ERN SD AND PERHAPS ACROSS SRN KS/WRN OK/TX PNHDL. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE THREATS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SEVERE THREATS MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD. ...MID-ATLANTIC/MID OH VLY... LEWP CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE NJ/MD/DE COAST THIS EVENING. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX WILL RIDE ATOP THE COLD BUBBLE SITUATED OVER LONG ISLAND/NRN NJ AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SRN NJ...DE...THE LOWER ERN MD SHORE AREA AND ERN VA THROUGH MID-EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER NW...SUFFICIENT AIR MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF EARLIER DAY BOW ECHO HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ADDITIONAL TSTM LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN PA BACK INTO THE MID-OH VLY. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ON AN ARRAY OF SEGMENTED COLD FRONTS. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO SUSTAINING THESE TSTMS MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. ..RACY.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 05:27:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 00:27:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506070539.j575d1Oe027421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070534 SWODY1 SPC AC 070533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE VTN 45 SW PHP 35 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 WSW FAR 40 SSE FAR 55 SSW AXN 30 SE BKX 40 S MHE 15 NNE VTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 NE CMX 35 WNW TVC 30 SW MKG 15 WNW CGX 35 SE DBQ 30 NNE CID 45 ESE FOD 20 N OMA 15 N CNK 25 N P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 E PVW 40 NNW PVW 40 SE EHA 25 NW GCK 10 SSE IML 30 ESE AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE SHR 15 W MLS 45 WSW P24 30 NNW DVL 80 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSX 50 W HOU 35 ESE AUS 25 NE SAT 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 75 S MRF 40 NNE HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 30 NE PUC 60 S EKO 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 25 E DLN 15 NE WEY 35 NNW COD BIL 75 ENE LWT 60 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SD...EXTREME SERN ND AND EXTREME WCNTRL MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VLY REGIONS... ...NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... AN MCS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MN. THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS ALONG ALONG/S OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN WI...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE DECAYING CLUSTER. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS IN THE NRN PLAINS AND NORTH OF THE LAKES REGION SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE OF MULTICELL VARIETY. BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A MODEST H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROTATING EWD THROUGH NV IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW OVER WRN SD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CNTRL SD BY TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD INTO WCNTRL MN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55F AS FAR W AS THE WY BLACK HILLS. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/SWRN SD WILL INTENSIFY AND PROBABLY ROOT INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BACKS WITH TIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FLOW TURNS MORE WLY RESULTING IN STRONGER VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THIS SET-UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHTS TSTM EVOLUTION WHERE WRN EXTENT OF THE TSTMS EVOLVED INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST REMAINED DISCRETE THE LONGEST. 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. MOREOVER...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL SD. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE INITIALLY HIGH LCLS. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO WARM DURING THE NEXT 24-HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS W TX. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/WRN NEB INTO WRN KS AND PERHAPS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT GIVEN A STORM...SUPERCELL STRUCTURE COULD RESULT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DECREASING SEVERE THREATS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 12:38:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 07:38:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506071249.j57CnEB5032748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071247 SWODY1 SPC AC 071245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S VTN 55 NE CDR 40 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 WSW FAR 40 SSE FAR 55 SSW AXN 30 SE BKX 40 E ANW 25 S VTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 40 ESE DBQ 30 E ALO 30 NE FOD 10 SSE SUX 25 SW OLU 10 SE P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 W CDS 20 ESE AMA 35 S LBL 50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE SHR 15 W MLS 45 WSW P24 30 NNW DVL 80 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK ...CONT... 20 S PSX 50 W HOU 35 ESE AUS 25 NE SAT 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 75 S MRF 40 NNE HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 30 NE PUC 60 S EKO 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 25 E DLN 15 NE WEY 35 NNW COD BIL 75 ENE LWT 60 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CNTRL/ERN SD...EXTREME NRN NEB...EXTREME WCNTRL MN...AND EXTREME SE ND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN PLAINS...THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A NARROW SWATH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS.... ...NRN PLAINS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT... A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WA/ORE...WITH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD OVER MT/ND/SD...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING EWD OVER WRN UT. THE UT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD TO ERN WY/NE CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING WAVE. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE OCCLUDING IN ND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE PATH OF THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER ERN NEB...WITH A LARGER CLUSTER MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE MN CLUSTER MAY PERSIST INTO WI TODAY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS...AND THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THIS CONVECTION ARE A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THIS FORECAST. THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NE NEB TO NW IA AND SW MN...WITH GENERALLY 58-60 F DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN NEB TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BY MID MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE HEATING TO MODIFY THE COLD POOL. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE...NORTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF THE UPPER 60 DEWPOINT PLUME SHOULD RESUME FROM ERN KS/NEB TO CENTRAL AND ERN SD BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/. ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS AS EXPECTED ACROSS NEB/SD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NW NEB AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN SD. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S. SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NE OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NE SD...WHERE THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR COINCIDES WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY. ...CENTRAL PLAINS DRYLINE... ABQ/DNR SOUNDINGS WARMED 2-4 C THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO YESTERDAY EVENING...AND THIS WARMER EML PLUME MAY ACT AS A STRONGER CAP OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO MONDAY. STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FROM N TX TO ERN KS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING/ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 16:30:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 11:30:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506071642.j57Gg3Gg027285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071631 SWODY1 SPC AC 071629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S VTN 55 NE CDR 40 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 20 SW FAR 20 W BRD 40 S STC 25 NW FRM 20 ESE YKN 25 S VTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 40 ESE DBQ 30 E ALO 30 NE FOD 10 SSE SUX 25 SW OLU 10 SE P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 W CDS 20 ESE AMA 35 S LBL 50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE SHR 30 W MLS 20 S OLF 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 40 NNE HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 20 WSW VEL 20 NNW DPG 30 ENE WMC 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 15 SSE 3DU 35 ENE BTM 35 W 3HT 10 NE LWT 55 SE HVR 60 ENE HVR ...CONT... 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS CENTRAL AND ERN SD...EXTREME SERN ND... PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MN AND EXTREME NRN NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD AND DEEPEN INTO A LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS ENHANCES THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THAT RETROGRADES OVER THE NRN PLATEAU REGION. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NRN WY/ERN MT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER NWRN NEB/CENTRAL SD VICINITY FURTHER ENHANCING WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN SD INTO SRN/CENTRAL MN AND SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE FROM CENTRAL SD SSWWD INTO NERN NM. ...NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MN... SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENS OVER WY/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NNEWD INTO ERN SD UNDERNEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION. MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 70 KT IN TANDEM WITH UPPER LEVEL JET OF 90-100 KT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN NV/SRN ID THRU SERN WY INTO CENTRAL SD. THIS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SD THEN INTO WRN/CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION ENHANCING UVVS IN THE VICINITY AND EAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS THE LOW DEVELOPS WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE AND BRN SHEAR NUMBERS INCREASE INTO THE 60-70 M2/S2 UNDERNEATH THE COUPLING JET STREAKS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTO CENTRAL SD AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS WY/MT. STRONG KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO AROUND 4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN...WITH DECREASE IN SURFACE HEATING TONIGHT...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY BECOMES A MCS ACROSS MN AND PARTS OF WI TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK... STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5C/KM PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 20:07:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 15:07:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506072018.j57KIfXY005986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 072010 SWODY1 SPC AC 072008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CDR 35 S RAP 45 NNE RAP 35 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 SSW FAR 40 W AXN 30 WSW RWF 40 SE FSD 45 ENE ANW 20 ENE CDR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 30 NNE MMO 20 E CID 35 E FOD 25 SE SUX 25 SW OLU P28 25 ESE CDS 45 NW DRT 35 SW P07 45 W P07 10 WSW PVW 50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 40 ESE RIW 25 SW WRL 40 N SHR 30 W MLS 20 SSW OLF 65 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 15 E HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 40 NNE EGE 35 E PUC 20 NNE U24 30 ENE WMC 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 15 SSE 3DU 35 ENE BTM 35 W 3HT 10 NE LWT 55 SE HVR 60 ENE HVR ...CONT... 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL 30 WSW EEN 20 W EFK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SD TO A SECONDARY LOW OVER CNTRL MN. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN WI. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW IN THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH NERN CO...WRN KS AND W TX. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY INTO WRN SD WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SWRN WY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO ERN MT. FARTHER EAST INTO SD WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED. HOWEVER...CUMULUS IS INCREASING FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL SD IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA BY 21-22Z AS CAP WEAKENS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER SWRN SD WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING MID-UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND HELP TO WEAKEN CAP. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH SD DURING THE EVENING AS LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET. A WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER SD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH SD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH WRN WI FROM A SURFACE LOW IN E CNTRL MN. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STATIONARY FRONT. BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IF STORMS CAN MOVE SEWD ALONG OR JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO SELY AND WHERE IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SRN PLAINS... THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF CAP AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INITIATION. HOWEVER...MODEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE MAY MIX EWD AND MERGE WITH A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION IN THAT AREA. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 00:45:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 19:45:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506080056.j580uEhi014950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080053 SWODY1 SPC AC 080051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N VTN 20 SSW PHP 55 NNW PHP 25 WNW MBG 50 ESE BIS 35 WSW FAR 45 ESE FAR 35 SSW AXN 20 NE BKX 25 NW MHE 45 N VTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 50 ENE ESC 40 NW MKG 35 ENE MKE 30 W MKE 35 N DBQ 30 E FOD 25 ESE SUX 15 SW OFK 30 NW BBW 45 WNW MHN 10 SSW CDR 10 N RAP 15 WNW 4BQ MLS 25 WSW SDY 60 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE 55 SW CMH 30 SSW BLF 25 NNE DAN 10 N ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 W LFK 30 E DAL 25 ESE FYV 40 NE SGF 20 WNW COU 35 NNW SZL 15 ESE TOP 35 S MHK 20 ESE RSL 15 SSE HLC 25 WSW MCK 10 S SNY 40 NNE LAR 35 WNW CPR 50 NW LND 20 NNE OGD 25 NW EKO 65 NE SVE 30 ENE MHS 20 SW MFR 10 W EUG 10 S PDX 20 NNW GEG 60 NW 3TH 10 WNW 3DU 30 NW BZN 15 NE LWT 65 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN SD...EXTREME SERN ND AND WCNTRL MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...NRN PLAINS... VERY STRONG COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED OVER WRN SD AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT SLOWS OVER SERN ND AND CNTRL SD. THE LLJ IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL FORM DOWNSTREAM ALONG/NORTH OF THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO WCNTRL/NWRN MN AFTER 03Z. THE NEAR SURFACE THROUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH TIME OVER THE PLAINS...AND BECOME ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE COLD POOL...SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE DECELERATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND DISCRETE MODES WILL BE FAVORED MOSTLY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO SERN ND WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MAINTAINED. LATER TONIGHT...THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES ORIENTED WSWLY AND INCREASES. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LOOPY SQUALL-LINE SCENARIO WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. BUT...ISOLD TORNADOES STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALL THE WAY EAST INTO PARTS OF WRN MN LATER TONIGHT. NRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL PROBABLY BE DEFINED BY THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED INTO EXTREME NRN MN AND PARTS OF NRN ND. ...UPPER MS VLY... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1003 MB SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NWRN WI WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED SEWD ACROSS CNTRL WI AND A WARM FRONT FARTHER N IN NRN WI. LINE OF TSTMS VCNTY THE LOW SWWD TO SCNTRL MN HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL AND SEEM TO BE SUSTAINING TSTMS AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD WRN WI. PROFILER AT WOOD LAKE AND BLUE RIVER SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH A MIXED MODE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL STRUCTURES BEING NOTED THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING MOSTLY LARGE HAIL. BUT...A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN WI ALONG THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT HAVE EXHIBITED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLD TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. OVERNIGHT...A BRANCH OF THE H9-H85 JET PEELING NEWD FROM THE MAIN CORE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN TSTMS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WI. CELLS TRAVELING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO UPPER MI WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME GIVEN MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ENTRENCHED IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. BUT...FARTHER S...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS INTO EARLY WED MORNING. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY FROM NWRN-CNTRL-ECNTRL WI. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... DESPITE WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...00Z SOUNDINGS AT LBF/DDC/MAF AND THE 18Z REESE AFB SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE CAP WAS NOT AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. RATHER THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND...CONSEQUENTLY...DRYLINE CIRCULATION WERE WEAKER. A FEW TSTMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER SW TX TERRAIN WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS. BUT...EVEN THESE TSTMS APPEAR TO NOT BE INGESTING THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS. AS A RESULT...THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEM TO BE LESSENING WITH TIME THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE. ..RACY.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 05:41:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 00:41:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506080552.j585qSEH014149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080549 SWODY1 SPC AC 080547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E ANJ 35 WSW GRR 60 ESE VIH 45 S PNC 20 SSE CSM 60 NNW CDS GCK 35 NE GLD 35 ESE SNY 25 E AIA 40 W YKN 20 SSE BKX 40 SSE FAR 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU 35 S AUS 35 SSE HDO 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 30 W LBB 40 N AMA 40 WNW EHA 25 SSE PUB 30 NNE EGE 20 S RWL 40 NNE RKS 30 SSW EVW 30 WSW ENV 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 35 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE GON 25 N TTN 20 E CXY 30 SW DCA 20 W HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...UPPER MS VLY/UPPER-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... A COUPLE OF MCS/S MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY SWD INTO THE CORN BELT WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. MORNING STORMS WILL ALTER THE MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR WED AFTN SEVERE POTENTIAL...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE PORTION OF TSTM CLUSTERS WILL TRAVEL NEWD AND DECAY OVER CNTRL MN/NRN WI WED MORNING... REINFORCING AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG/S OF THE FRONT BY AFTN. BY PEAK HEATING...THE WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BRUSH THE UPPER MS VLY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY OWING TO THE DAMPENING WAVE. BUT PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL TSTMS BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF MN SOUTH INTO IA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF AROUND 35 KTS. STRONG INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEAKER SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR MIXED MODES OF MULTICELLS AND BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD UPPER MI...BUT LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT/INSTABILITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER KS BY WED AFTN AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MINIMAL. BUT...AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT FIRST INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN MO/NERN KS...POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TSTMS...THEN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW TO THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SCNTRL KS. ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM AS FAR S AS I-40 ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT CONVERGENCE APPEARS IT WILL BE WEAKER THAT FAR SOUTH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...BUT SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AS WELL GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER W...HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL LIMIT THERMAL BUOYANCY...BUT THE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD STAY ISOLD AT BEST ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD SUFFICE. MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST IN NEB OVERNIGHT WED AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO ACCELERATE. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NWWD. IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. ...NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND... A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EWD INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS TO POSSIBLY BOW AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. WILL INCLUDE LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND THREATS UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ON SEVERE COVERAGE/INSTABILITY CAN BE ASCERTAINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 12:37:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 07:37:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506081248.j58CmEVH027598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081246 SWODY1 SPC AC 081244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S ESC 10 NNW HTL MBS 25 SSW JXN 20 WNW STL 45 S PNC 20 SSE CSM 60 NNW CDS 45 W RSL HLC 15 WNW MCK 30 NNE IML 30 SSW MHN 35 SW ANW 45 NE BUB 10 NNW OMA 30 SW ALO 35 SSE LSE 10 SW CWA 15 ENE AUW 50 SSW IMT 50 S ESC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 15 WSW DLH 40 NNE MSP 35 SSW STC 50 SSW AXN 35 S FAR GFK 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE GON 25 N TTN 20 E CXY 30 SW DCA 20 W HSE ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 35 SW BHB ...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU 35 S AUS 35 SSE HDO 35 S LRD ...CONT... 70 SSW MRF 30 NNE INK 40 ESE DHT 45 SSW LAA 30 NE ALS 10 S EGE 20 S RWL 25 S RKS 50 NNW PUC 60 NW ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BIS 40 N REJ 65 WSW RAP 25 SW CDR 35 N MHN 35 SE MHE 25 NNW ATY 50 SE JMS 20 WNW JMS 20 WNW BIS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM WI TO ERN KS...AND TONIGHT ACROSS NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN.... ...WI TO NE KS AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT... THE REMNANTS OF AN INTENSE OVERNIGHT MCS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ARE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS WRN WI AND NRN IA. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IA/WI WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR...THUS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME. CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWD/SEWD ALONG THE AXIS OF 70 F DEWPOINTS AND STRONG INSTABILITY TOWARD NE KS/NW MO BY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS LINKED TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE SE MOVING FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ...CENTRAL/NRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WELL TO THE NW OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND...A PRONOUNCED MCV IS LIFTING NNEWD OVER NE ND/NW MN. THE OVERNIGHT MCS PRODUCED A LARGE COLD POOL AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...REDUCING INSTABILITY ACROSS MN MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN IN ADVANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW AND MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTING NEWD FROM ND. RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS BENEATH THE NOSE OF THE MID-UPPER JET ACROSS WRN AND NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...NEB AREA LATE TONIGHT... THE SYNOPTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS NRN KS LATE TODAY...AND THEN RETURN NWWD ACROSS NEB LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF WRN KS. WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WAA REGIME N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AFTER 06Z. ...NY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN LOWER MI/LAKE HURON WILL MOVE ESEWD TO NY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WRN AND UPSTATE NY. ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE LOW-MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THE WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL. ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 16:36:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 11:36:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506081647.j58GlL9S022580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081629 SWODY1 SPC AC 081627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BVO 35 NW PNC 30 SE SLN 25 NNW TOP 10 SE STJ 40 N SZL 25 SSE SZL 35 ENE JLN 20 NNE BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 15 WSW DLH 40 NNE MSP 35 SSW STC 50 SSW AXN 35 S FAR GFK 75 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S ESC 15 NW OSC 40 SSE OSC 25 E MTC 30 SSW STL 45 S JLN 20 ENE CDS 40 WNW CDS 45 W RSL HLC 15 WNW MCK 30 NNE IML 30 SSW MHN 35 SW ANW 45 NE BUB 20 NE FNB 35 NNW IRK 40 W RFD 10 WNW OSH GRB 45 NE GRB 50 S ESC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 15 SSE CVS 30 E DHT 50 N LAA 40 SW COS 10 S EGE RWL 30 WSW LND 20 E OGD 60 NW ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 25 SE BIS 10 WNW Y22 25 S REJ 10 SSW RAP 45 ESE PHP 25 SW HON ATY 50 SSW FAR 15 S JMS 25 SE BIS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 15 ENE BDR 10 WNW EWR 10 ENE ILG 10 SSW NHK 20 W HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 20 SE BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH REMAINS OVER WRN U.S. WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES/NERN STATES. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD FROM ND INTO SRN MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW CENTRAL ND SEWD INTO ERN SD THEN SWD THRU ERN NEB TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO NRN TX PANHANDLE. FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SLOWER SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO BUILD S/SEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED PRONOUNCED COLD DOME PUSHING SWD. A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS MAINTAINING A SUPPLY OF VERY MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE FLOW OF AIR AHEAD OF FRONT AND INTO SWD PROPAGATING MCS BOUNDARIES. ...CENTRAL U.S... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS AVAILABLE FOR SUPPORT OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE STREAM OF AIR FROM OK NEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. MARGINAL SHEAR PARTICULARLY S OF OK/KS BORDER IS THE LIMITING FACTOR IN AN OTHERWISE POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH FULL HEAT AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE GONE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT THRU ERN KS AND MCS OUTFLOW DROPPING SWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. WITH MLCAPES AOA 5000 J/KG...AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ERN KS/WRN MO. IN ADDITION PARTICULARLY VICINITY BOUNDARIES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WHERE LOCALLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR CAN BE ENHANCED. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO INSTABILITY AXIS DURING EVENING TOWARD/INTO NRN OK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... THE LARGE MCS OVER IA HAS DISRUPTED FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS DAKOTAS. HOWEVER GOOD HEATING WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWS THAT DEVELOP IN THE STRONG FLOW. ...SRN GREAT LAKES EWD TO NY AREA... WHILE SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK MUCH OF THIS AREA...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT DEVELOP IN A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD BE HIGHLY DIURNAL...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NEB AREA LATE TONIGHT... FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KS EXPECTED TO RETURN NWWD ACROSS NEB LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL LEAD TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WAA REGIME N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AFTER 06Z. ..HALES/SCHNEIDER.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 19:55:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 14:55:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506082006.j58K6X09027952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082000 SWODY1 SPC AC 081959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BVO 25 NE ICT 25 E SLN 25 SE BIE 15 WNW FNB 15 ENE FLV SZL 25 S SZL 55 SSW SZL 35 SSE CNU 30 NW BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 20 SSW HIB 35 ESE STC 35 N RWF 50 ENE ATY 15 SE FAR 15 N FAR 20 SSE GFK 30 ESE DVL 25 NNE DVL 60 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PLN 25 WNW APN 15 ENE OSC 25 E MTC 35 W EVV 20 ENE CGI 35 NW FYV 40 SSW LTS 45 SE CDS 40 SW CDS 45 NE PVW 40 ENE AMA 45 W P28 30 W SLN 60 SSW HSI 40 NE MCK 25 N IML 35 ESE AIA 45 NNW MHN 25 NE ANW 25 WNW OFK 50 NNE FNB 25 SSE IRK 20 W UIN 40 ESE BRL 35 ENE MLI OSH 10 ENE GRB 55 S ESC 30 SSW PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BIS 10 WNW Y22 25 S REJ 10 SSW RAP 45 ESE PHP 25 SW HON ATY 50 SSW FAR 15 S JMS 25 SE BIS ...CONT... 60 S MRF 15 SSE CVS 30 E DHT 50 N LAA 40 SW COS 10 S EGE RWL 30 WSW LND 20 E OGD 60 NW ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 20 SE BHB ...CONT... 25 SE BOS 15 ENE BDR 10 WNW EWR 10 ENE ILG 10 SSW NHK 20 W HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN ND THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN MN... ...ERN KS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN IL SWWD THROUGH NRN MO THEN NWWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE FROM ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO AND INTO OK. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT OR IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF GRAVITY WAVES. WWD BACKBUILDING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED TOWARD EVENING AS THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP WWD TOWARD THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. ...MN AND ERN ND... THIS REGION HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE MORNING MCS DUE TO PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME RECOVERY...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER CNTRL MN...BUT WITH UPPER 50S OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THE STATE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS OVER THIS REGION. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ND EJECTS NEWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...NERN U.S.... STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT AND IN VICINITY OF A BOUNDARY DOWNSTREAM FROM A SEWD MOVING VORT MAX. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NEB... INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD THROUGH NEB TONIGHT UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 00:54:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 19:54:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506090105.j59158I4017814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090102 SWODY1 SPC AC 090100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHK 30 S FNB 20 ENE FLV 10 WNW SZL 60 NNW SGF JLN 15 NNW BVO 15 W ICT MHK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE OMA 45 NW LWD LWD P35 JEF SGF 40 WNW FYV TUL PNC 50 SW P28 DDC RSL 50 SSW EAR 10 W MCK IML SNY AIA ANW OFK 15 SSE OMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA GTF 70 NNE BIL 20 ENE SHR 50 E WRL BPI 35 WSW MLD 40 WNW OWY 55 ENE RDM 35 WSW PDT PUW 30 N GEG 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 10 WNW LFT 30 E POE 40 W POE 35 WSW LFK 60 SSW TYR 45 WSW TXK 40 SW HOT 45 NW HOT 35 S MLC 20 NNW ADM SPS 55 W ABI 40 WSW SJT 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 65 S MRF MRF INK HOB 55 N HOB 45 SE AMA 45 E LBL EHA 10 WNW TAD 30 S 4FC EGE 40 NNE CAG 30 ENE DGW 40 SSW 9V9 YKN 30 WSW AXN FAR 55 NW JMS 40 ENE MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 35 WSW MSS SLK LEB 15 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN KS/W CNTRL MO.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME SPLITS DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE JET NOSING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC. IN SOUTHERN BRANCH...AN IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION IN CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ALREADY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE ...FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED 70+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MANITOBA/ ONTARIO...GRADUALLY WEAKENING BENEATH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SURFACE DRY LINE TYPE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND SHIFT NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA PROVIDES SOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS ALREADY LIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING IN NARROW PRE-WIND SHIFT MOIST TONGUE ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND STABLE EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...PROSPECTS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEAR SLIM. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO EASTERN KANSAS/PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND...LATER TONIGHT...WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS ADVECTING OFF THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ABOVE RETURN FLOW OF LOW/MID 70S DEW POINTS. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT UPPER FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SIZABLE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR RAIN CORES...SUPPORTING DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG/CONSOLIDATING SURFACE OUTFLOWS. EVENTUALLY...OUTFLOWS WILL UNDERCUT THE CORE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND INHIBITION SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI OR SOUTHWARD MUCH BEYOND EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT...BACKING OF CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO REFOCUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEBRASKA. AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 06Z ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 09-12Z. ..KERR.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 05:36:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 00:36:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506090547.j595leM5004101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090545 SWODY1 SPC AC 090543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC BFF 10 ESE CDR VTN 20 W YKN 25 SE FSD 20 NNE FRM 10 E MCW LWD MHK HUT P28 END 40 E OKC ADM 40 S SPS ABI SJT 65 NE P07 10 SW FST HOB 10 NNE CVS 40 SSW LAA LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 35 NW INK 30 SW CVS 10 WNW CAO 30 ESE RTN 50 ENE 4SL 25 E INW 40 NNE DAG 20 SSW BIH 35 ENE BNO 45 N ALW 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 55 NE BIS 20 SW FAR 25 SSW DLH IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK DOV 45 W ORF 20 S OAJ ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 25 SW LFK 45 SW TYR 35 WNW ACT 10 ESE BWD 15 NNW JCT 15 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY.... MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA...AND WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU TODAY...AS INTENSE UPSTREAM UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WITH APPROACH OF LATTER SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... EVOLVING LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS...ATOP VERY MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL AGAIN EXCEED 4000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES...AT LEAST IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. LARGE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD OUTFLOW SLOWLY SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...WHERE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP AND WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT NEW DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...BUT STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT A LARGE PART OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 09/12Z...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL ENHANCE FORCING ALONG PRIMARY LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN MAINTAINS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THUS...STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA. FRONT...DRY LINE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS ALL LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION WEAKENS BY/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING CLUSTER...AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER SUPPORT...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION WITH LOSS OF HEATING WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE SLOWED BY NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET...AND MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO APPALACHIANS... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG...LOCALIZED PULSE SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS. CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ENHANCED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS COULD SUPPORT NEW STORMS CLUSTERS AND BETTER DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND...UPSTREAM...FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ..KERR.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 12:44:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 07:44:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506091255.j59CtcwT015817@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091253 SWODY1 SPC AC 091252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW RSL 10 S DDC 15 WSW GAG 65 ENE AMA 35 NE AMA 25 SSE EHA 35 S GLD 20 NNE GLD 10 NW MCK 25 W EAR 20 SSW HSI 50 WNW CNK 50 WSW RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LIC 10 WNW SNY 40 E AIA 35 N BUB 25 SSW YKN 30 ESE SPW 25 NE DSM 15 NE LWD 15 NNE MHK 15 SE SLN 30 N P28 35 S P28 35 NW MLC 35 S MLC 10 SE DUA 40 N ABI 35 W ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 30 SSW HOB 30 ESE CVS 40 NNE DHT 25 NE LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW JFK DOV 45 W ORF 20 S OAJ ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 30 SSW DVL 20 WSW FAR 25 SSW DLH IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 25 ENE CNM 20 SW CVS 35 WSW DHT 30 ESE RTN 50 ENE 4SL 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 25 SW BNO 55 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EXTREME SRN NEB...WRN KS...THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...AND THE NE TX PANHANDLE.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX NWD TO NEB.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS AREA... WITHIN THE BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH...DIFFUSE SPEED MAXIMA ARE EJECTING NEWD FROM SRN NV TOWARD CO...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM NRN CA TO AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NRN WI AND NRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IA/ERN NEB/NRN KS TO A LEE CYCLONE IN SE CO. OVERNIGHT/ONGOING STORMS HAVE CREATED A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MESOHIGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD TOWARD ERN/CENTRAL OK AND SW KS. THE KS/OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NW KS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OF THE FRONT AND W/SW OF THE OUTFLOW IN WRN KS/WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 4000-5000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A BELT OF 25-35 KT LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM TX NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN KS...AND THE ERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER /30-40 KT/ MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN KS/NEB LATER TODAY. THE RESULTANT COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTION MAY GROW INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS NW KS AND NEB BY TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO W TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK...THOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. ...OH/MS VALLEYS TO THE GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES... SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM WV/OH/IND SSWWD TO THE NRN GULF COAST...WHILE CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY LEFT A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INDIANA TO WRN TN/ERN AR. RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS BROAD AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:08:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:08:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506091619.j59GJl9F015666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091612 SWODY1 SPC AC 091610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RSL 25 ENE DDC 10 NNW CSM 50 NW CDS 20 ESE AMA 10 SE EHA 50 SE AKO 20 SE SNY 30 NW LBF 15 SE BBW HSI 40 WNW CNK 30 W RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LIC 10 WNW SNY 40 E AIA 35 N BUB 25 SSW YKN 30 ESE SPW 25 NE DSM 15 NE LWD 15 NNE MHK 15 SE SLN 30 N P28 35 S P28 35 NW MLC 35 S MLC 10 SE DUA 40 N ABI 35 W ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 25 N INK 15 SW AMA 40 ENE DHT 25 NE LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 25 ESE CNM 35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL 35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN NEB SWD THRU EXTREME ERN CO/WRN KS INTO NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN IA.... ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS WRN U.S. WITH BROAD RIDGING IN THE E. IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OUT OF WRN TROUGH ACROSS PLAINS. FOR TODAY ONE S/WV ROTATES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE IMPULSE AND 40KT SWLY MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES FROM SRN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LEE SURFACE LOW SERN CO AND DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD THRU WRN TX PANHANDLE SEPARATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES W OF DRY LINE AND A SLY FLOW OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE E. WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO E OF DRY LINE AND NWD THRU WRN KS INTO SRN NEB. COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY IS THE LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT ERN KS MCS. THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED S AND W TO A POSITION THIS MORNING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK THEN NWWD INTO SWRN KS. 12Z NAM RUN FOCUSES INITIATION ON THIS BOUNDARY AT THE EXPENSE OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG E OF DRY LINE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAP...SOME DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE E OF DRY LINE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR EXPLOSIVE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND JUST E OF DRY LINE FROM TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN NEB. WITH 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY SUPERCELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOS. THE ELY FLOW TO THE N OF THE PERSISTENT LEE LOW SERN CO...WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WWD ACROSS NERN CO FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY PALMER DIVIDE NWD. MOST CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE MODEL SIGNAL IS ACROSS NERN CO WHERE SUPERCELLS WOULD DEVELOP AND THEN PROPAGATE E/NEWD ACROSS NEB AND NWRN KS THIS EVENING FEEDING OFF 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR. A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A SEVERE MCS. SEVERE STORMS DOWN THE DRY LINE THRU TX PANHANDLE WILL BE INITIALLY MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER DURING THE EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY. AT THAT TIME WIND DAMAGE COULD BECOME MORE COMMON AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWS. AGAIN VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM PRIOR TO SUNSET. SWD EXTENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL COULD BE TO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF SWRN TX. SHEAR THIS FAR S WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH FEWER STORMS. ..HALES/PETERS.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 19:50:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 14:50:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506092001.j59K1iDv025554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091953 SWODY1 SPC AC 091951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S RSL 40 W END 25 SW CSM 35 N CDS 40 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 15 SW GLD 20 WSW IML 15 NNW IML 25 S LBF 40 SSW EAR 40 E HLC 30 S RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LIC 40 ESE FCL 10 ESE CDR 35 E PHP 30 WNW BKX 20 WSW SPW 55 WSW DSM 15 NNW STJ 20 SSW EMP 25 NE ICT 30 N PNC 30 SSE PNC 35 SSW TUL 10 N MLC 25 NNE ADM 45 NNE ABI 25 WSW ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 35 WNW INK 30 NE CNM 45 ENE ROW 25 E CVS 25 ENE DHT 10 SSW LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW TVC 20 NW PLN 50 E APN 40 ENE MTC 35 E TOL 25 E FWA 20 ESE SBN 40 NE MKE 45 WNW TVC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 25 ESE CNM 35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL 35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WRN KS...THE TX AND OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN SD INTO WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SWRN NEB/WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK... 18Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. MOREOVER...THESE DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH CURRENT TIME HEIGHT PROFILER/VWP TENDS INDICATE INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS. THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MESOANALYSIS...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND VWP DATA INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR DDC SWD INTO NWRN OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS FROM S OF MCK TO NEAR HLC TO RSL. GIVEN DISCRETE STORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SWWD ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN TX INTO SERN NM. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER E...PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...SELY-ELY SURFACE WINDS INVOF OF BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OVER NRN NEB INTO SRN SD...LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NEWD TODAY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING/. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL INTO SWRN SD IS LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL SD AND POSSIBLY SWRN MN. DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST FROM ALONG THE SD I-90 CORRIDOR SWWD INTO THE NEB SANDHILLS. ...LOWER MI... TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NW OF TOL TO N OF MTC...AS WELL AS W OF APN WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH APPROACH OF MCV CURRENTLY OVER WI. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 21:04:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 16:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506092115.j59LFQB0009878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092106 SWODY1 SPC AC 092104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S RSL 40 W END 25 SW CSM 35 N CDS 40 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 15 SW GLD 20 WSW IML 15 NNW IML 25 S LBF 40 SSW EAR 40 E HLC 30 S RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LIC 40 ESE FCL 10 ESE CDR 35 E PHP 25 E RST 45 ENE ALO 50 W DSM 15 NNW STJ 20 SSW EMP 25 NE ICT 30 N PNC 30 SSE PNC 35 SSW TUL 10 N MLC 25 NNE ADM 45 NNE ABI 25 WSW ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 35 WNW INK 30 NE CNM 45 ENE ROW 25 E CVS 25 ENE DHT 10 SSW LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW TVC 20 NW PLN 50 E APN 40 ENE MTC 35 E TOL 25 E FWA 20 ESE SBN 40 NE MKE 45 WNW TVC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL 35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 25 ESE CNM 35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WRN KS...THE TX AND OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN SD INTO WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES... AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK TO NRN IA AND SRN MN ...SWRN NEB/WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK... 18Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. MOREOVER...THESE DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH CURRENT TIME HEIGHT PROFILER/VWP TENDS INDICATE INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS. THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MESOANALYSIS...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND VWP DATA INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR DDC SWD INTO NWRN OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS FROM S OF MCK TO NEAR HLC TO RSL. GIVEN DISCRETE STORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SWWD ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN TX INTO SERN NM. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER E...PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...SELY-ELY SURFACE WINDS INVOF OF BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OVER NRN NEB INTO SRN SD...LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NEWD TODAY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING/. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL INTO SWRN SD IS LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL SD AND POSSIBLY SWRN MN. DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST FROM ALONG THE SD I-90 CORRIDOR SWWD INTO THE NEB SANDHILLS. ...SRN MN/NRN IA... AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM VICINITY OF SUX EWD ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN WITH MLCAPES NOW AROUND 2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE OF SPW AND GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...LOWER MI... TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NW OF TOL TO N OF MTC...AS WELL AS W OF APN WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH APPROACH OF MCV CURRENTLY OVER WI. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 00:49:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 19:49:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506100100.j5A107Re020053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100058 SWODY1 SPC AC 100057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PVW 35 NE PVW 30 ENE AMA 55 W GAG 10 SSE GAG CSM 20 SE LTS 65 SSE CDS 75 ESE LBB 35 ESE LBB 25 ESE PVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 15 SSE INK 55 NW BGS AMA 20 ENE LBL GCK GLD LIC 35 NNW LIC 55 ESE CYS 20 NNW SNY MHN 35 NNW BUB MHE ATY 35 SW STC 10 ENE MKT MCW 10 NNE DSM STJ MHK HUT END OKC 25 ESE SPS 40 WNW ABI 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL HIB 30 NW MQT 45 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 45 WSW GLS CLL 55 WSW TYR ACT 25 S BWD JCT DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF MRF INK 40 E TCC DHT EHA LAA TAD 4SL 25 NNE SOW EED DRA 60 NW P38 U24 PUC 50 SE RKS RWL LND COD BZN 30 S MSO 40 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PNHDL/NW TX/WRN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY.... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SUPPORTED BY SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...STORMS NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHERE DRY MID-LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERLIE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS...STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS INTENSE ZONAL NORTHERN PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN NORTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN TROUGH...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SURFACE DATA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TILT AND TURN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MCS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD/ NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS SEEMS ONLY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT BROADER-SCALE SEVERE WIND EVENT...BUT SUFFICIENT MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO SUPPORT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SQUALL LINE. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU SHORT WAVE...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL NOT SUPPORT EASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER PLAINS...BUT STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING APPEARS LIKELY NEAR HEAVY RAINS CORES. THUS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING APPEARS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS...WHICH SHOULD SURGE SOUTHWARD/ EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE CORE OVERNIGHT. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 06/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 01:08:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 20:08:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506100119.j5A1Jht7028578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100117 SWODY1 SPC AC 100115 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PVW 35 NE PVW 30 ENE AMA 55 W GAG 10 SSE GAG CSM 20 SE LTS 65 SSE CDS 75 ESE LBB 35 ESE LBB 25 ESE PVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 15 SSE INK 55 NW BGS AMA 20 ENE LBL GCK GLD LIC 35 NNW LIC 55 ESE CYS 20 NNW SNY MHN 35 NNW BUB MHE ATY 35 SW STC 10 ENE MKT MCW 10 NNE DSM STJ MHK HUT END OKC 25 ESE SPS 40 WNW ABI 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL HIB 30 NW MQT 45 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 45 WSW GLS CLL 55 WSW TYR ACT 25 S BWD JCT DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF MRF INK 40 E TCC DHT EHA LAA TAD 4SL 25 NNE SOW EED DRA 60 NW P38 U24 PUC 50 SE RKS RWL LND COD BZN 30 S MSO 40 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PNHDL/NW TX/WRN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY.... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SUPPORTED BY SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...STORMS NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHERE DRY MID-LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERLIE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS...STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS INTENSE ZONAL NORTHERN PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN NORTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN TROUGH...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SURFACE DATA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TILT AND TURN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MCS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD/ NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS SEEMS ONLY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT BROADER-SCALE SEVERE WIND EVENT...BUT SUFFICIENT MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO SUPPORT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SQUALL LINE. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU SHORT WAVE...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL NOT SUPPORT EASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER PLAINS...BUT STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING APPEARS LIKELY NEAR HEAVY RAINS CORES. THUS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING APPEARS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS...WHICH SHOULD SURGE SOUTHWARD/ EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE CORE OVERNIGHT. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 06/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 00:48:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 19:48:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506120059.j5C0xPG8013019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120056 SWODY1 SPC AC 120054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 SW P07 25 NW INK 70 ENE 4CR 25 SW LHX 20 N LAA 15 N P28 20 SE ICT 35 E OKC 20 E SPS 15 N ABI 35 S DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE LSE AUW 35 WSW CMX 55 NW ANJ 25 SE ANJ 35 E MTW 30 SSE MKE 30 N MLI 20 SSE LSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GPT 40 ENE MLU 60 SW ARG 20 WSW TXK 10 SW SEP 20 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 SSE CNM ROW 30 NW SVC 25 NW PHX 20 SSW IGM 30 S U31 75 NW WMC 40 N BNO 25 N PDT 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 40 SSW ACY 10 N SHD 35 SW 5I3 20 SE CSV 40 ESE CHA 45 WNW AND 10 E AGS 45 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO OK / SRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN WI AND INTO UPPER MI... ...SRH HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SRN KS / THE WRN HALF OF OK... MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED FROM WRN PORTIONS OF TX INTO OK. AS WRN U.S. TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS /30 TO 40 KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL TORNADOES. ATTM...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. WITH TIME...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EWD / ENEWD INTO WRN OK AND PERHAPS SRN KS. THOUGH TORNADO THREAT MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT -- PARTICULARLY IF STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR...HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST WITH THIS MCS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #1302. ...ERN WI / UPPER MI... THOUGH AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY STABILIZE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS ACROSS ERN WI INTO PARTS OF THE U. P. OF MI. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN WI INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI...AND 45 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW INDICATED INVOF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NWD...WITH OVERALL STORM WEAKENING TO CONTINUE. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE -- POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- WITHIN BANDS E / NE OF THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN AL / WRN GA / NRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THREAT TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD DECREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORM WEAKENING. ..GOSS.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 05:50:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 00:50:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506120601.j5C61Zsn016757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120559 SWODY1 SPC AC 120557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW LBL 30 W GAG 20 NE SPS 45 W MWL 30 WSW ABI 75 ESE LBB 30 ESE PVW 40 NNE AMA 40 SW LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 20 E LIC 20 WNW BBW 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 35 NNE CNM 35 ENE ONM 20 WNW GNT 10 SSW DPG 30 NNE TWF 50 WSW MSO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE MOT 30 NNW ABR 30 NW RWF 35 E MSP 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL HGR 30 ESE MGW 35 ENE CRW 20 S 5I3 20 SSW HSS 25 NE AGS 35 SW CHS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN N TX...AND EWD INTO SWRN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION SWD ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY-NEGATIVE TILT. MEANWHILE...LARGE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD FROM ERN NM / SERN CO TO NRN NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF ARLENE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NWD ACROSS TN / KY AND INTO IN BY 13/12Z. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE -- PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX AND OK. A MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING STORMS NOW OVER PARTS OF NERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK / SWRN KS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EVOLVING INTO AN MCS...AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS WRN OK / SRN KS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS SWRN OK / INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WWD / NWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ONGOING STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AWAY FROM CONVECTION / S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD THEN SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. SCENARIO ACROSS WRN / CENTRAL KS IS MORE COMPLICATED...AS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOCATION / INTENSITY OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN / BACK WITH TIME ACROSS OK / WRN PORTIONS OF TX AS TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ASSUMING PERSISTENT W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES INDEED EVOLVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE / SRN OK...THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NWD TOWARD NEB WHILE TRAILING TROUGH STRENGTHENS / SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY FAVOR MORE LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WITH TIME...AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS TX / OK / KS AND TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY. THOUGH PARTS OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED TO SOME DEGREE BY EARLIER CONVECTION...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... MOIST AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WI DURING THE DAY...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...LESS OBVIOUS LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER / MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE HAIL / WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ...TN VALLEY REGION... REMNANTS OF ARLENE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NWD ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND KY THIS PERIOD....WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS -- MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO E / NE OF CIRCULATION CENTER. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 11:34:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 06:34:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506121145.j5CBjktR012686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121143 SWODY1 SPC AC 121141 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW LBL 20 NNW GAG 30 NNW END 40 W ADM 50 SSW SPS 65 NW ABI 10 SE LBB 30 NNW PVW 35 SW LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 20 E LIC 20 WNW BBW 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 30 NNW ABR 30 NW RWF 35 E MSP 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL HGR 30 ESE MGW 35 ENE CRW 30 N TRI 15 N AVL 40 SE SPA 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 WNW GNT 10 SSW DPG 30 NNE TWF 25 NNW S80 40 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES WELL DEPICTED IN W/V IMAGERY...WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FEATURES ARE WELL DEFINED THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE FOCUSING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT AS CLEAR. LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS CURRENTLY EVOLVING AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS KS THIS AM...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN CO INTO OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF 40KT LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH NAM TOO AGGRESSIVE TAKING STORMS EWD ACROSS OK THIS AM AND AS A RESULT MISHANDLING THE AIRMASS PROPERTIES. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM KS MCS WILL LIKELY EXTEND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO TX PANHANDLE AND BE A FOCUS FOR THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLY VEERED SHEAR PROFILES...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO BE INITIAL MODE OF STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES LIKELY IN MOST INTENSE STORMS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ERN NM WILL BE A FOCUS FOR RELATIVELY EARLY INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS INTO TX PANHANDLE AS UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD ADVECTION SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING. THIS POTENTIAL EARLY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE EXPANSION OF THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES INTO MUCH OF WRN OK. HOWEVER LOCATION ON E/W BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND AVAILABILITY OF VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR. AS TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS'S AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASING WIND THREAT. ...TN VALLEY REGION... REMNANTS OF ARLENE CURRENTLY NWRN AL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD TO OH RIVER WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG AND TO E OF TRACK TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS. ...GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES... MUCH OF THIS REGION COVERED BY A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT ON TOP OF RIDGE...THUS ANY SEVERE STORM SHOULD REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 16:30:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 11:30:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506121641.j5CGfsQj006880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121631 SWODY1 SPC AC 121629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW AMA 60 E DHT 45 SW GAG 35 WSW END 10 NW PNC 10 N TUL 45 NW MLC 25 W ADM 35 ENE ABI 30 WSW ABI 15 ESE LBB 35 S AMA 35 NW AMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 45 ENE LIC 30 WSW AKO 40 E CYS 15 W CDR 45 ENE CDR 25 SW BBW 15 W LNK 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OWB 35 NE EVV 10 SSW BMG 50 E BMG 40 WSW LUK 15 NE LEX 20 NNE LOZ 20 NNW TYS 25 WSW TYS 30 N CHA 50 SE BNA 15 NNW BWG OWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 45 SE JMS 35 SW BRD 60 SSE DLH 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL 30 S CXY 20 SW CHO 10 NNW DAN 25 NNW FLO 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 N INW 10 NW ELY 45 SW BOI 30 N BKE 50 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN/WRN TX AND WRN/SRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GRT BASIN TO THE SRN RCKYS SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. SATELLITE/RAOB AND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING...WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA APPARENT UPSTREAM AT LEAST AS FAR NW AS ID. THIS SUPPORTS MODEL FORECASTS OF SYSTEM CLOSING OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLNS BY 12Z MONDAY. FARTHER SE...EMBEDDED IMPULSE NOW OVER SW CO SHOULD CONTINUE ESEWD TODAY...WHILE SIMILAR FEATURE OVER SE NM LIFTS ENE INTO TX. SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL STATES HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY RECENT SERIES OF MCSS WHICH MOVED THROUGH REGION. A FAIRLY DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY STORMS NOW IN PROGRESS...EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NE TO NEAR MKC. FARTHER S...A WEAKER BNDRY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER SW/CNTRL AND ERN OK. ELSEWHERE...RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE EAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.S. ARLENE...NOW CENTERED NEAR BNA...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN DEEP S/SWLY FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF HIGH. ...WRN/NW TX INTO OK/SE KS... SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 16C/...COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF ERN NM VORT LOBE... WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOA 4000 J PER KG/ OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX LATER TODAY...S AND W OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE NRN PANHANDLE AND NW TX. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING/DIFFLUENT MID AND UPR LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH...SETUP WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. WHILE STRATUS MAY INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE DAY...AND LINEAR FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN SOME AREAS /E.G. ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG WIND SHIFT LINE PROGRESSING E FROM NM/...THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST SOME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STRONG/ POSSIBLY DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN FRINGES OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH DO DEVELOP. GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL VEERING AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...THESE COULD YIELD A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND NEWD INTO WRN/SRN OK. FARTHER S...AREA OF ELEVATED TSTMS NOW N/E OF ABI APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE/MID LVL MOISTURE MAX WHICH HAS BEEN EJECTED NE AHEAD OF MAIN WRN TROUGH. ATTM THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED BEYOND AXIS OF STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR/ INSTABILITY. BUT AS WRN TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...THE STORMS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE STORMS WHICH FORM OVER TX/OK AND SE KS LATER TODAY WILL PROBABLY MERGE INTO SEVERAL BANDS/CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD MOVE/ DEVELOP GENERALLY NEWD. THIS MAY EXTEND A THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL NEWD INTO PARTS OF MO/IA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... MOIST/BACKED LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE SRN PLNS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION...IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM OVER PARTS OF NE CO/WRN NEB AND PERHAPS SW SD. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J PER KG/...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...TN/LWR OH VLYS... REMNANTS OF ARLENE SHOULD TRACK N FROM NEAR BNA TO NEAR EVV BY EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. VWP DATA STILL SHOW AMPLE /30-40 KT 0-1 KM/ LOW LVL SHEAR ALONG AND TO E OF TRACK TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN PARTS OF KY/TN. ...GRT LKS/NERN STATES... MUCH OF THIS REGION COVERED BY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR...BUT SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT ON NRN FRINGE OF RIDGE. CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND PULSE IN NATURE. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR IN A FEW STORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 19:55:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 14:55:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506122006.j5CK6pkR000983@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122002 SWODY1 SPC AC 122000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AMA 50 ENE AMA 55 WNW CSM 30 NNE CSM 10 SE END 20 E PNC 15 NW TUL 35 SSW TUL 20 NNW ADM 35 ENE ABI 30 WSW ABI LBB 25 NE PVW 15 E AMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 25 SE BGS 50 SW LBB 30 NW PVW 10 ENE DHT 50 W EHA 20 NE LHX 25 N LIC 45 WSW SNY 15 W CDR 45 ENE CDR 25 SW BBW 15 W LNK 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE OWB 35 SW BMG 20 N BMG 30 S MIE 25 SSW DAY 25 ESE LUK 30 NW JKL 10 SW TYS 35 WSW TYS 35 SSE CSV 40 SW CSV 20 NE BWG 30 NE OWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE NEL 30 S CXY 20 SW CHO 10 NNW DAN 25 NNW FLO 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 N INW 10 NW ELY 45 SW BOI 30 N BKE 50 NW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE MOT 45 SE JMS 35 SW BRD 60 SSE DLH 20 SSE ANJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NWRN AND W TX THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS... A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH ONGOING STORMS EXTENDS FROM ERN KS SWWD THROUGH NRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD POOL IS WELL DEVELOPED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS NWRN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE AND A LARGE PART OF CNTRL KS. MEAN SLY FLOW ABOVE 6 KM IS SUCH THAT THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING DISTRIBUTED INTO THE COLD POOL...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTIONS OVER ERN KS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKBUILDING INTO OK ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING. THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE MS VALLEY AREA. FARTHER S AND W...A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM W TX NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NM IS CURRENTLY SPREADING EWD THROUGH W TX...AND CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE DRYLINE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. THREAT OF TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN THROUGH CNTRL OK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND AS THE DEEP SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. ...ERN CO...WRN NEB THROUGH NWRN KS... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO ARE SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS. ...TN THROUGH OH VALLEY AREA... THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE IS CURRENTLY OVER WRN KY. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS E AND NE OF THE CENTER WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BREAKS BETWEEN RAINBANDS. POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING MITIGATES THE SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 00:55:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 19:55:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506130106.j5D16Rbt011853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130104 SWODY1 SPC AC 130102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CDS 20 WNW TUL 20 W MLC 25 ENE SPS 30 WSW MWL 30 SSE ABI 50 W ABI 75 NW ABI 25 NE CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 40 ENE BGS 40 WNW CDS 35 WSW EHA 35 SSW LAA 25 NE LAA 25 WSW HLC 40 SSE HLC 35 WNW P28 30 W CSM 25 N BVO 30 NNE MKC 45 WNW LWD 20 SSE FOD 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 35 SSE PGO 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SDF 10 SSE BMG 20 N BMG 20 SSW MIE 25 SSW DAY 35 ESE LUK 25 NNW JKL 35 SE LOZ 45 N CSV 40 SW LEX 20 NNE SDF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 50 SE JMS 35 WSW PIR FSD 25 WNW RST 40 SSW IMT 30 NW ANJ ...CONT... 15 WSW ISP 25 S BGM 15 SSW ERI FDY 30 S UNI 15 NNW HKY 20 ESE SAV ...CONT... 30 WNW PFN 10 E CHA 40 ESE OWB 15 S MVN 35 WSW POF 10 S TXK 50 NW AUS 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSW P07 10 N BGS RTN 30 SE DRO 20 N U28 35 ENE EVW 45 E 3HT 40 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SWRN OK / WRN N TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO / MID MS VALLEYS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID OH VALLEY REGION... ...CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO / MID MS VALLEYS... POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF STONEWALL AND INTO NRN FISHER / NRN JONES COUNTIES IN WRN N TX. WITH MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...TORNADO THREAT -- ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER N...ARCING BAND OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SRN IA SWD ACROSS WRN MO...SWWD INTO NERN OK...THEN WSWWD INTO SWRN OK. STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SWRN MO / SERN KS SWWD INTO SWRN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...AND THUS EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO CONTINUE. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS / REDEVELOPS EWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...SERN INDIANA / SWRN OH / CENTRAL AND ERN KY... REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF ARLENE IS NOW INDICATED ACROSS SRN IN...WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD OVER SERN INDIANA / SWRN OH / CENTRAL AND ERN KY ATTM. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...LIMITED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST WITHIN N-S BAND OF STORMS NOW SHIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KY / SERN INDIANA INTO SWRN OH. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 05:52:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 00:52:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506130604.j5D6492w019565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130601 SWODY1 SPC AC 130600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BEH 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE ABI 55 N ABI 45 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW 20 ENE 9V9 35 W ATY 35 SW AXN 45 NNE MSP 35 NE EAU 10 ESE OSH 25 NNE BEH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 30 E INK 25 SSE LBB 40 N CDS 40 ESE LBL 40 W SNY 55 NNE DGW 85 E LWT 35 WSW HVR 20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 SW DVL 35 ENE JMS 25 SE TVF 15 E INL ...CONT... 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEB BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD THEN MOVE NEWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY / CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD ARC FROM WI SWWD ACROSS SERN MO / AR INTO FAR W TX. ...MID MO / MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS SWWD INTO ERN OK / N TX... VERY COMPLEX BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SHAPING UP FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AS 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS MOIST / POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN KS / ERN OK INTO NRN / WRN MO. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST / MOVE EWD WITH TIME...AND THUS PRECIPITATION / CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE DAY 1 RISK AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 13/18Z. WITH CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION AND SUBSEQUENT AIRMASS RECOVERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION / TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE ATTM. HAVING SAID THAT...POTENTIAL DEFINITELY EXISTS SOMEWHERE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. WITH 65 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXTEND NEWD INTO MO / IA / IL WARM SECTOR...SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENT SUPERCELL STORMS. ATTM...TWO POTENTIALLY MORE FOCUSED AREAS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO EXIST. THE FIRST IS ACROSS SRN MO / NERN OK / NWRN AR -- AN AREA WHICH MAY BE S OF ONGOING CONVECTION / NEAR A POTENTIALLY RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THOUGH SHEAR WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION AS AREA WOULD BE S OF MID-LEVEL JET CORE...INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS / SEVERE THREAT ASSUMING AFOREMENTIONED POSITIONING OF CONVECTION / OUTFLOW. A SECOND MORE FOCUSED THREAT AREA MAY EXTEND FROM SERN SD / NERN NEB ACROSS IA AND ADJACENT SRN MN / SWRN WI...NEAR NOSE OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK / JUST N OF POTENTIAL DRY SLOT. AGAIN -- ASSUMING SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE / UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON...FAVORABLE SHEAR WOULD EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE BACKED E OF SURFACE LOW. ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN -- EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DETERMINE LOCATIONS OF GREATER OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT. ...THE NORTHEAST... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST ACROSS ME WHERE TROUGH / CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...AND AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE LIKELY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF ARLENE REMNANTS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 10:31:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 05:31:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506131042.j5DAgf3l015104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131038 SWODY1 SPC AC 131036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MCW 30 NE RST 35 NW VOK 25 NNE MSN 25 E JVL 25 SSW CGX 10 S DNV 35 SSW HUF 30 SE MVN 25 W MDH 25 E VIH 15 SSW IRK 15 SSE DSM 35 NNE DSM 15 NNE MCW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BEH 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE ABI 55 N ABI 45 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW 20 ENE 9V9 35 W ATY 35 SW AXN 45 NNE MSP 35 NE EAU 10 ESE OSH 25 NNE BEH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 45 SW DVL 35 ENE JMS 25 SE TVF 15 E INL ...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 30 E INK 25 SSE LBB 40 N CDS 40 ESE LBL 40 W SNY 55 NNE DGW 85 E LWT 35 WSW HVR 20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ...EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S... ...CENTRAL U.S... UPPER LOW LOCATED CENTRAL NEB WILL CONTINUE ENEWD REACHING SWRN MN AS A STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAX ROTATES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/WRN OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE NEARLY COUPLED SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ALONG WITH UPPER LOW. THESE DYNAMIC PROCESSES WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL U.S. CONCERNS NOTED IN EARLIER DY1 OUTLOOK WITH THE DISRUPTIVE AFFECTS OF CURRENT MCS ACTIVITY ARE LESSENED. WITH CONVECTION NOW DECREASING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE TO THE N...AHEAD OF THE LOW SYSTEM...NOW EXPECT THAT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE S OF THE LOW CENTER A 60-70 KT 500 MB WIND MAX ACCOMPANIED BY A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL ROTATE NEWD FROM KS ACROSS NRN MO AND INTO MS VALLEY TODAY. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F THE MIXING AND STRONG HEATING WITHIN DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE LOW SYSTEM. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH 50-60 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR AND A WEAKENING CAP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SRN MN/IA INTO MO. SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN MN/ERN IA INTO WI AND NRN IL WILL FAVOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE ENHANCED SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. STORMS WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER FURTHER S ACROSS MO WHERE MORE HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW/MID LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FLOW SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO SHORT LINES AND BOWS BY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT INTO WRN OH VALLEY. THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO NRN TX WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE THRU THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 7OF... WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY BE 25KT OR LESS...THE STEEP LOW/MID LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ...THE NORTHEAST... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST ACROSS ME WHERE TROUGH / CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...AND AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE LIKELY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF ARLENE REMNANTS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 16:22:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 11:22:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506131633.j5DGXpbi017421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131632 SWODY1 SPC AC 131630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FSD 20 E BKX 15 SW MSP 35 NW VOK 25 NNE MSN 20 N CGX 30 WNW IND 20 N EVV 30 SE MVN 30 WSW MDH 25 E VIH 15 SSW IRK 30 SE DSM FOD 15 ENE FSD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GRR 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE ABI 55 N ABI 25 WSW FSI 40 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW 9V9 35 W ATY 25 SW AXN 60 SSW DLH 25 SW IWD 30 NW IMT 25 SW ESC 15 SSW MBL 20 SSW GRR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE P07 55 W SJT 65 NW ABI 35 WNW LTS 10 S P28 30 WSW RSL 50 WSW HLC 40 SW IML SNY 70 SSE 81V 85 E LWT 35 WSW HVR 20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPR MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE MID/UPR MS VLY...THE OZARKS AND THE SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG NEB CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE E/NE INTO SE MN THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM BAND OF FAST WLY FLOW OVERSPREADS PACIFIC NW. 90 KT JET STREAK NOW ROUNDING BASE OF NEB SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM SRN KS INTO NRN MO LATER TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING MORE ENE INTO IL EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM NE NEB/SE SD LOW SHOULD SWEEP E INTO CNTRL PARTS OF IA/MO BY EVENING. FARTHER E...CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONFLUENCE BAND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS IA. IN THE EAST...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.S. ARLENE IS NOW CENTERED NEAR LAN/FNT. THE FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS ENE INTO SRN ONTARIO. ...MID/UPR MS VLY... POTENT SETUP NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL STATES COULD YIELD SCATTERED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS NEWD INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLYS. WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND UNINHIBITED HEATING LIKELY TO CONTINUE...STORMS SHOULD FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF STRONGEST CONVERGENCE NEAR AND E OF NEB/SD SURFACE LOW. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SSE ALONG CONFLUENCE BAND ACROSS SRN MN INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND...PROBABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO CNTRL MO. AVERAGE MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG IN SRN MN/NRN IA TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG IN NRN MO/NW IL. AT THE SAME TIME...CONTINUED NE MOTION OF KS SPEED MAX WILL BOOST DEEP SHEAR TO AROUND 40 KTS IN NRN IA...TO NEAR 60 KTS IN NRN MO. COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY...STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND ORIENTATION OF SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO CONFLUENCE BAND ALL SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF ASCENT/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THE SUPERCELLS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO BANDS/CLUSTERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE E INTO PARTS OF WI/IL/IND BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...OZARKS/ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS... STRONGER CINH AND WEAKER LAGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OZARKS AND ERN PARTS OF SRN PLNS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS NOW OVER CNTRL KS. LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LIKELY WILL ALSO BE OF IMPORTANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN OK AND SW MO. WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 35-45 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR... PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND WILL EXHIBIT LESS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RELATIVE TO THE MID/UPR MS VLY. BUT POTENTIAL WILL NEVERTHELESS EXIST FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS COULD MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND AS REGION COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT /JET ENTRANCE REGION OF MID MS VLY SPEED MAX/ LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ...NERN STATES... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ME...WHERE MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR INVOF WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS /30 KT WNW FLOW AT 500 MB/. A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD ALSO FORM IN UPSTATE NY...ZONE OF ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR AND COOLER AIR ALOFT E OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 20:28:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 15:28:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506132039.j5DKdqUk020331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132031 SWODY1 SPC AC 132029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BKX 40 NE BKX 25 ENE RWF 15 NNW RST 10 WSW LSE 15 W JVL 25 N MMO 20 ESE BMI 20 WSW MTO 15 NNE MDH 25 NW POF 25 ESE HRO 30 WSW PGO 20 N DUA 25 NNE ADM 20 NE TUL 45 NNW SGF 30 W COU 25 SSW IRK 30 NE P35 30 NNW LWD 25 ENE OMA 45 SE SUX 30 NNW SUX 20 SSW FSD 20 SSE BKX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GRR 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 SSW PRX SEP 15 WNW ABI 70 S CDS 40 SE CDS 15 NNE BVO 25 SSE TOP 20 E LNK 60 ENE ANW 9V9 30 ESE ABR 20 W AXN 50 SW DLH 25 SW IWD 30 NW IMT 25 SW ESC 15 SSW MBL 20 SSW GRR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA ...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 35 SW P07 20 SE MAF 30 NNE BGS 55 E LBB 15 WNW CDS 30 N CSM 10 NNW END 35 SW ICT 15 SE HUT 25 ENE RSL 25 N HLC 35 SW IML 20 SSE BFF 35 NNW GCC 65 SW MLS 85 E LWT 70 NE LWT 30 NE HVR ...CONT... 45 NNE FCA 30 SSE FCA 30 SSE 3TH 25 N PUW 40 WSW GEG 20 WSW 4OM 50 W 4OM 65 SE BLI 40 SSE BLI 25 WNW BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MIDWEST ALONG THE MID MS VLY TO THE OZARKS/ERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO N TX... ...IA/SRN MN/SWRN WI TO NRN IL... POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS WAS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 80KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREAD EAST ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STORMS WERE NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN IA AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE DEEP UPR LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT ENHANCED ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID LEVEL JET MAX. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MDT RISK AREA ARE FCST TO INCREASINGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS STORMS FORM NEARER THE LOW CENTER...FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER LATER THIS EVENING. DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS REGION. LATER THIS EVENING....CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...FROM IA INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL. WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS AS PROCESS UNFOLDS. ...WRN IL/MO/NWRN AR/ERN OK... BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH SRN EDGE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHEAR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...FROM MO/SWRN IL...SWWD TO OK AND N TX...WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT MULTICELLS. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO ALIGN WITH THE BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...OR ALONG RESULTING STORM OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:58:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:58:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506140109.j5E19lqZ032531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140106 SWODY1 SPC AC 140104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW TOL 15 SW FDY LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 30 SSE PRX SEP 15 WNW ABI 65 S CDS 65 SE CDS ADM 25 E TUL 15 NW CNU 15 NNW STJ 50 SE OMA 20 E OFK 35 SSE MHE 15 WNW ATY 30 SE FAR 35 NNE BRD 25 SW IWD 35 NE GRB 35 W MKG 20 NNW TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 35 W MCN 15 WSW ATL 45 NNE HKY 15 E LYH 30 SW MRB 30 SW MGW 10 ENE HTS 55 NNW HSV 40 SSW ELD 30 NW AUS 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 95 SSE MRF 20 SE MAF 20 ENE LBB 10 SW CDS 20 ESE LTS 30 E OKC 15 SE FNB 40 W BIE 25 NE LBF 30 E RAP 40 E MLS 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JAX 30 ESE SRQ 30 E FMY 30 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 30 SSE FCA 30 SSE 3TH 40 NE PUW 20 NW GEG 40 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS... ...MID AND UPPER MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS SWWD INTO ERN OK / N TX... TWO ENHANCED AREAS OF SEVERE THREAT EXIST ATTM -- ONE OVER IA / MN AND VICINITY WITHIN CIRCULATION OF UPPER LOW...AND THE OTHER IN A BROKEN BAND FROM IL SWWD INTO N TX. WITHIN THE NRN AREA -- OVER IA / MN AND VICINITY...GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF / WEAK TORNADOES. THREAT IN THIS AREA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. FURTHER S...BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED ACROSS IL...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD INTO INDIANA. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT -- PARTICULARLY E OF INDIANA...BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST SWWD ACROSS MO -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THOUGH STORMS ARE MORE NUMEROUS FROM SWRN MO SWWD INTO N TX...SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION. NONETHELESS...EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM SERN OK INTO N TX SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...THE NORTHEAST... CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NY AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE -- NOW OVER SRN ONTARIO. THOUGH DIURNAL COOLING / STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY...A LINGERING / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 05:18:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 00:18:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506140529.j5E5TGB1010849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140526 SWODY1 SPC AC 140524 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 40 NW HTS 50 SW CMH 25 NE FDY 35 SE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH 25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 45 SSW BMG 45 N LAF 30 NE MSN 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 15 W ELP 35 SE ABQ 50 ESE GUC 30 WNW LIC 25 S GLD 60 NNE AMA 30 ESE CDS 10 SE DUA 15 NNW LIT 25 ENE POF 30 E SLO MMO 35 ENE DBQ 10 ENE MCW 15 SSE AXN 30 WNW INL ...CONT... 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT 40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO 10 SSE SVE 10 WNW RBL 40 W MHS 40 WSW RDM 65 E BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OH / NRN AND WRN WV / WRN PA / WRN NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER WI SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION...SEWD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...SWD ACROSS TX. ...GREAT LAKES / OH AND TN VALLEYS WSWWD INTO TX... SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY / DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT. THOUGH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO TX...MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION. EXPECT STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN IN / WRN OH / LOWER MI TO ORGANIZE RAPIDLY INTO A LINE / BOW ECHO INVOF FRONT. WITH ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW IN THE 35 TO 50 KT RANGE FORECAST AT LOW TO MID LEVELS...STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD / ENEWD. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDESPREAD / DAMAGING WIND EVENT TO BE UNDERWAY -- ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO -- ACROSS ERN OH...WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN PA / WRN NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AT LEAST A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST EWD INTO ERN PA / ERN NY. FURTHER S ACROSS THE TN VALLEYS...SHEAR SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ALONG / AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MULTICELL / WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS. FURTHER WWD...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAKER YET. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS / TRANSPECOS REGION. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR FRONT...AND NWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM WHERE ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT STRONG / SHORT-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN ROCKIES... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW / NRN ROCKIES WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ID / WRN MT -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG FRONT / TROUGH...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. WITH 50-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY LIKELY LIMITING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 12:33:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 07:33:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506141244.j5ECiaMr008731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141242 SWODY1 SPC AC 141241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 40 NW HTS 50 SW CMH 25 NE FDY 35 SE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH 25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 45 SSW BMG 45 N LAF 30 NE MSN 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT 40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO RNO 40 S SVE 50 WNW SVE 40 NNW RBL 45 WNW MHS 40 WSW RDM 65 E BLI ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 15 N ONM 15 W TAD 35 WSW GCK 15 SSW GAG 20 E LTS 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 20 SSE MVN 10 W SLO 35 NNW STL 35 SW UIN 20 NW IRK 30 NE DSM 10 E STC 45 NNE ELO ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GRT LKS SWWD INTO THE TN VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW OVER MN WILL CONTINUE E TO NEAR LK HURON THIS PERIOD AS LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW OVERSPREADS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN RCKYS. BELT OF FAST FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF MN LOW WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP E/NE ACROSS THE OH VLY TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WI SHOULD SHIFT E MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH UPR SYSTEM. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SURGES/TROUGHS TRAILING S FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GRT LKS/OH VLY. FARTHER S...A PREVIOUS FRONTAL SURGE /IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS OVER THE SRN PLNS ON MONDAY/ WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S/SW ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND TX. ...GRT LKS/OH AND TN VLYS... SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS/FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINES EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS INTO THE NRN APPALACHIANS TODAY/TONIGHT AS SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BE FUELED BY PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT NWD WITH T.S. ARLENE...MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SERIES OF TROUGHS/FRONTAL SURGES ROUNDING SRN SIDE OF SURFACE LOW CROSSING WI AND MI. THE MOST SUSTAINED...AND PERHAPS STRONGEST...CONVECTIVE BAND MAY DEVELOP ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE MAIN COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE ATTM EXTENDS FROM CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL IL AND SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY OVER LWR MI/IND AND WRN OH /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/. 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW TO WSWLY FLOW AND PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO LINES WITH A FEW LONG-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS MAY YIELD A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT...ESPECIALLY IN OH/WRN PA AND PERHAPS WRN NY. LONG... SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS MAY ALSO SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST EWD INTO ERN PA/ERN NY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...TN VLY... MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT S OF OH VLY JET STREAM...BUT CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER /UP TO 2500 J PER KG/. WEAK SHEAR/HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY YIELD PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ...W TX/ERN NM... SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WILL FORM LATER TODAY IN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ ASSOCIATED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PLUME ALONG AND S OF WEAK SRN HI PLNS COLD FRONT. VERY WEAK SHEAR /AOB 20 KTS/ SHOULD KEEP INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHORT LIVED. BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. LATE IN THE PERIOD...STRENGTHENING LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED STORMS IN THE TX PANHANDLE REGION. ...NRN RCKYS... SATELLITE DATA SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OFF THE ORE/WA CST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER ID AND WRN MT LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS IN DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MAY DELAY ONSET OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER REGION. BUT INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE LIKELY WILL RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AS 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY. 50-60 KT SWLY MID LVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO ORGANIZE STORMS/PROMOTE LONGEVITY...AND COULD YIELD A FEW WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 16:18:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 11:18:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506141629.j5EGTUj1008535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141618 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 30 ESE LUK 30 E MIE 30 SW JXN 45 SSE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH 25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 35 SSE BMG 45 SW SBN 35 S OSH 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT 40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO RNO 40 S SVE 50 WNW SVE 40 NNW RBL 45 WNW MHS 40 WSW RDM 65 E BLI ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 15 N ONM 15 W TAD 25 NW LBL 30 WNW FSI 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 35 NE PAH 50 NNW EVV 15 NNE MTO 30 NE SPI 35 SE OTM 30 NE DSM 10 E STC 15 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... LOW...SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NRN WI THIS AM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES MOVING INTO SERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. S/WV TROUGH ROTATING EWD AHEAD OF LOW INTO WRN OH VALLEY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON BOTH WV IMAGERY AND 500MB HEIGHT FALLS. 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND PA TONIGHT. COLD FRONT AT 16Z MOVING EWD ACROSS LM AND THEN SWWD TO SRN MO WILL CONTINUE EWD. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDES THE FRONT EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70F. STRONG HEATING WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE WEAK CAP WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY E OF COLD FRONT. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN IND WILL FORM SHORT LINES AND BOWS AS THEY MOVE/PROPAGATE EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ERN OH VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS PA AND NY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CONTINUE EWD THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONCERN FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE THIS AREA THAN FURTHER S...THUS DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...MID MS/TN VALLEY... A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AVAILABLE E OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG INTO WRN TN VALLEY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON IN STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS THAN CAN DEVELOP. WHILE CATEGORICAL RISK WILL REMAIN SLIGHT WILL INCREASE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES SWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. ...TX... BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING MCS CONVECTION IN CENTRAL TX WILL LIKELY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. AS AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...PAC NW... S/WV TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS WA/OR ALONG WITH STRONG WIND MAX WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NRN ID INTO WRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON PRECEEDED BY SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND EVENTS FROM HIGH BASED STORMS. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 19:59:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 14:59:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506142010.j5EKAUoY031547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142003 SWODY1 SPC AC 142001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BUF 15 N BFD 15 N LBE 35 NE CRW 20 NNW JKL 60 E BWG 40 SSE SDF 40 SSW LUK 15 NNE LUK 35 E MIE 45 SSE AZO 25 ENE AZO 15 SSW MBS 55 SE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MSS 35 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 10 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH 30 SW MEM 35 ESE PAH 20 SE BMG 35 NE LAF 20 S OSH 25 WSW MQT 65 NNW ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP CNM HOB 30 SSE MAF 15 NE SJT 15 SSW JCT 45 ENE DRT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR BHB ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 10 E LVM 30 NE MLD 30 S ENV 20 S U31 LOL 80 NE SVE 35 NE 4LW 55 N BNO 15 N ALW 50 SW GEG 45 NNE EPH 15 WNW 4OM 45 NW 4OM 70 E BLI 60 NE SEA 25 ESE SEA 10 WNW SEA 30 NE CLM 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 25 SW 4SL 30 ESE RTN 20 NNW DHT 50 NNE CDS 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 NW DYR 40 NNE PAH 50 NNW EVV 15 NNE MTO 20 E PIA 30 W DBQ 20 NNE RST 70 SSW DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO....AND SMALL PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA/WEST VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE TN VLY TO IND...ERN WI... THE U.P. OF MI...NY/PA/WV/WRN MD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX... ...GREAT LAKES/UPR OH VLY... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE CYCLONE SPINNING ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE ERN/SERN FLANK OF THE VORTEX EXTENDS FROM MI SWD TO NEAR THE OH/IND BORDER THEN SWWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER TO KY/TN. LARGE SCALE DPVA AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WHERE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A 50-60KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX COINCIDENT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORMS. A COMBINATION OF CELLULAR AND LINEAR CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM LWR MI TO NRN KY. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWED STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH FAST CELL MOTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS...AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED OVER SERN LWR MI AND ERN OH. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES BEYOND LATE AFTERNOON...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO PARTS OF WV/WRN PA AND WRN NY BY EVENING. ...TN VLY WSWWD TO ERN TX... THERMAL GRADIENT DEFINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GENERALLY MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NONETHELESS...A FEW HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR. ...WEST TX... AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY ALONG SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INK TO JCT. ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SEE SPC MCD NUMBER 1347 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THIS AREA. ...NRN ROCKIES... STRONGER DESTABILIZATION HAS SO FAR BEEN INHIBITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE BITTERROOTS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AS WELL AS ACROSS SERN ID...SHOULD SPUR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND FAST-MOVING CELLS. A FEW HAIL REPORTS...OR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING FROM ERN/SERN ID INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. ..CARBIN.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 00:31:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 19:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506150042.j5F0gD8w019307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150039 SWODY1 SPC AC 150037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 SE UCA 10 S ABE 40 WSW RIC 20 ENE HSS CHA 30 N HSV 35 NNE MSL 25 NNE CSV 15 NNE 5I3 35 WNW EKN 25 NE MGW 15 S FKL 30 W ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DMN 70 NE SAD 25 SW 4SL 30 ESE RTN 20 NNW DHT 40 NW BGS 35 W ACT 30 ENE SHV 20 E UOX 45 SE BWG 40 NE SDF 25 E MIE 30 N BMI 30 W DBQ 20 NNE RST 70 SSW DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 10 E LVM 45 WNW VEL 20 NNW 4BL 20 NW GCN 55 SSE NFL 80 NE SVE 35 NE 4LW 55 N BNO 15 N ALW 50 SW GEG 45 NNE EPH 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 45 N BML 20 ENE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION... GENERAL / SLOW WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH BROKEN LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN NY / WRN PA / WV SWWD INTO ERN TN -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THIS REGION. STRONGER STORMS ATTM PERSIST FROM SRN WV SWWD...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS INDICATED. THOUGH SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AREAWIDE...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA -- AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE FURTHER N ACROSS WRN PA / WRN NY -- FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THOUGH CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS W OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL MAY EXTEND EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN AND WRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...FRONT REMAINS WELL W OF CONVECTION OVER NRN PARTS OF THIS REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN OH. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY / BEHIND ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE...DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WEAK. THOUGH A SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH ANY STORM WHICH COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA...CHANCES FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS STABILIZES. ...PARTS OF TX / SERN NM... MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD PERSISTS INVOF COLD FRONT ACROSS TX. THOUGH SCATTERED STRONG / LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SERN TX WWD INTO W TX / SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIURNALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SERN NM / THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST...SUPPLYING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...A FEW HAIL / WIND EVENTS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...WRN MT / SERN ID... A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN MT ALONG TAIL END OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NEWD INTO SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA / SRN ALBERTA. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE / ROTATING STORMS...INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MT. THIS COMBINED WITH FURTHER STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS AFTER SUNSET SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. AN ISOLATED WIND / HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN. ..GOSS.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 05:31:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 00:31:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506150542.j5F5ghWY017110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150540 SWODY1 SPC AC 150538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PBG 10 S MPV 10 SW EEN 25 NNE BDR 35 NW ILG 40 W CXY 20 ESE DUJ 20 E JHW 30 NNE BUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 40 WNW FYV 20 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 25 SW CSM 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55 NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 50 NW SHR 25 NW WEY 25 SW DLN 50 N 27U 25 SSW GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TUS 30 WNW SOW 35 WNW GUP 25 N 4BL 25 SSW U28 40 ENE MLF 45 NE ELY 40 NNW ENV 40 NNE OWY 75 E 4LW 50 NNW SVE 20 NNW MHS 70 NE MFR 45 S PDT 45 ENE S80 35 NNE CTB ...CONT... 55 NE MOT 50 ENE BIS 20 NNE PIR 40 ENE ANW 45 N FNB 25 SE OJC 20 NNW UMN 35 WSW FSM 15 E ADM 40 N FTW 30 N ACT 20 NE LFK 35 ESE MEI 55 E MCN 30 NNE FLO 30 E RIC 45 NNE CHO 30 NNE BKW 25 WSW CMH 10 NNW FDY 20 SE DTW ...CONT... 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM MT SWD TO NM...AND EWD INTO PARTS OF KS / OK... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL LOW / TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA / THE GREAT LAKES REGION / THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE SECOND TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN...RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ON THE SMALLER SCALE...SEVERAL FEATURES SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE E COAST STATES. FURTHER W...THIS BOUNDARY -- INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... WHILE WLY COMPONENT ALOFT ADVECTS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER / STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DEVELOPING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TX NWD INTO ERN MT. WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM NRN NM NWD INTO MT. WLY WINDS ALOFT ABOVE SELY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR DEVELOPING STORMS TO ORGANIZE / BECOME SEVERE. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH GREATEST THREAT MAY INITIALLY EXIST ACROSS MT NEAR EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT / BENEATH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. WITH TIME HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION -- PARTICULARLY INTO THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MCS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN CO / WRN KS...AND THEN MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF KS / OK. ALONG WITH HAIL POTENTIAL...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO EVOLVE WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ...THE NORTHEAST... LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW / INVOF FRONT...WHILE SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND ERN CANADA UPPER LOW. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST. SMALL BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...AND GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PERHAPS MOST LIKELY INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY COOLS. ...SERN ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES... THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS EXTENDING AS FAR WWD AS ERN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE STORMS BEGIN DECREASING DURING THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 12:36:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 07:36:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506151247.j5FClHO7029874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151245 SWODY1 SPC AC 151243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW BML 35 W EEN 30 NNE EWR 20 N CXY 20 NNW PSB 50 SE BUF 40 NNE ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 40 WNW FYV 20 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 25 SW CSM 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55 NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 50 NW SHR 25 NW WEY 25 SW DLN 50 N 27U 25 SSW GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB ...CONT... 15 NNE NEL 25 SE CXY 45 ESE MGW 20 E UNI 30 NE DAY 25 NW TOL 55 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 45 ESE SOW 35 WNW GUP 25 N 4BL 25 SSW U28 25 SE MLF 10 SSE ELY 55 SSE TWF 55 WSW SUN 75 E 4LW 50 NNW SVE 20 NNW MHS 70 NE MFR 45 S PDT 45 ENE S80 35 NNE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 50 ENE BIS 20 NNE PIR 40 ENE ANW 45 N FNB 20 ESE MKC 20 NNW SGF 45 E FSM 40 NNW TXK 10 NNE FTW 45 SW ABI 40 SSW SJT 15 S JCT 65 NNE CLL 45 N POE MEI 25 NNW MCN 10 ESE RDU 20 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS S/E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NY AND PA... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND OVER ONTARIO/ QUEBEC THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM IN THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED THE OH VLY YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE NE INTO QUEBEC CANADA AND WEAKEN...WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SRN MI SWEEPS E INTO PA/NY. IN THE WEST...IMPULSE NOW OVER WA/ORE SHOULD MOVE NE INTO ALBERTA. FARTHER S...A WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ATTM IN WV IMAGERY OVER AZ/UT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE E/SE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE HI PLAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE LWR GRT LKS...AND BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY HOLDS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY IN ERN NY. ...NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS TO CNTRL/SRN PLNS... MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED LEE TROUGHING. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER LIMITED OVER THE NORTH...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER NE NM/THE TX-OK PANHANDLE REGION AND ERN CO AS OLD FRONTAL SURGE WHICH STALLED IN TX YESTERDAY REDEVELOPS NWD. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY PRESENT SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM MT SWD INTO NRN NM. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM E OF THE MOUNTAINS IN MT /ALONG TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW IN ALBERTA/...AND INVOF WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS IN NE NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. PROXIMITY OF MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS /40+ KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW/ WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN MT. SOMEWHAT WEAKER /35 KT/ BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY IN WY/CO/NM. BOTH REGIONS LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. OVERALL COMBINATION OF UPLIFT/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH WIND. GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRESENCE OF NWD-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE AND SRN BRANCH UPR DISTURBANCE...THE CONVECTION IN CO SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE E/SE INTO KS/OK EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...NRN/ERN NY AND NRN/ERN PA AND NRN NJ... TSTMS WILL FORM AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES AREA OF MODERATELY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS REGION. MI UPR VORT WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /AROUND 7 C PER KM/...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF DIURNAL STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN NRN/ERN NY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE IN AN ELEVATED FASHION E/NEWD INTO WRN/NWRN NEW ENG...WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SEVERE. ...WRN GULF CST TO SERN U.S... AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF OLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM SE TX EWD INTO CAROLINAS. DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE VERY WEAK... ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY DOES DEPICT A WEAK IMPULSE OVER LA/MS. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...A FEW OF THE STORMS LIKELY WILL YIELD HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. STRIATED NATURE OF MID LVL MOISTURE AXIS OVERLYING REGION /WV IMAGERY/ SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO BANDS. BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE SUSTAINED/STRONGLY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 15:53:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 10:53:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506151604.j5FG4r3x026275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151600 SWODY1 SPC AC 151558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 35 W EEN 30 NNE EWR 25 ESE IPT 10 N ELM 20 WNW SYR 15 WSW ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 25 WSW FYV 25 NE MLC 25 NNE ADM 10 NW LTS 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55 NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 20 W SHR 15 ESE WEY 20 SSW DLN 40 NW DLN 25 SSW GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DUG 45 ESE SOW 90 NW GUP 40 NW U17 35 NW U24 20 NNE TWF 35 WNW 27U 45 NE CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 25 NE BIS 35 NE PIR 35 SSW MHE 45 N FNB 25 SE OJC 25 W SGF 20 SE FYV 30 S PGO 25 S PRX 20 NNE TYR 30 S SHV 40 NW HEZ 10 ENE SEM 35 NNE MCN 20 SSE RDU 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 20 WSW BHB ...CONT... 15 ESE NEL 35 SW AOO 20 ESE ZZV 40 WSW MFD 20 SW ARB 70 SE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NWWD INTO EASTERN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... OVERALL PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OFF WEST COAST AND COLD UPPER LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO CONTINUES WITH SOME DEEPENING. S/WV TROUGHS MOVING INLAND PAC NW THEN INTO SRN CANADA AS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER ROCKIES. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SERN CANADA WITH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY REPLACING THE VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE NERN U.S. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD THRU CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING E OF ROCKIES. ...NERN U.S... THE AREA OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS SHRINKING FROM THE W ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CONFINED TO ERN NY/NERN PA AS COOL MARINE AIR REMAINS OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WITH STRONG RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONGOING SRN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AM...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MLCAPES EXPECTED TO CLIMB AT LEAST TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. UNDER NWLY FLOW REGIME E OF ROCKIES RIDGE 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO/WRN KS AND THEN PROPAGATE SEWD WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN PLAINS WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUING AFTER DARK. ...MT/NERN WY... WHILE ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES PAC NW LATE TONIGHT. A MOIST SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MT TODAY WITH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO ERN MT. WITH GOOD HEATING IN SRN AND ERN MT TODAY...MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS PLAINS OF ERN MT/NERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ...GULF COASTAL AREAS... A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE LIKELY VICINITY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 20:23:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 15:23:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506152034.j5FKYa09006731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152031 SWODY1 SPC AC 152029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 10 W DIK 40 NNE RAP 40 NW VTN GRI 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 35 NE MKO 35 SW MKO 25 NNE ADM 50 SSW SPS 60 NNW ABI 35 ESE TCC 40 SW RTN 50 WSW PUB 30 E DGW 40 S GCC 25 SE SHR 25 N COD 45 SSE LVM 25 SSE LVM 25 SW 3HT 10 SW LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 10 ESE PSM ...CONT... 15 ESE NEL 35 SW AOO 20 ESE ZZV 40 WSW MFD 20 SW ARB 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 25 NE BIS 35 NE PIR 35 SSW MHE 45 N FNB 15 SSE MKC 15 NNE UMN 20 SE FYV 45 NW TXK 50 SE PRX 15 E GGG 30 S SHV 30 ENE HEZ 30 SSW SEM 20 SE MCN 30 N CHS 40 N HSE ...CONT... 20 SE DUG 45 ESE SOW 55 SW CEZ 40 NW U17 35 NW U24 20 NNE TWF 35 WNW 27U 45 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS KS/OK/NWRN TX... ...HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS/OK/NWRN TX... SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADS EAST. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS EAST OF THIS CONVECTION IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX NNWWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION IS ALMOST ELIMINATED ACROSS KS/WRN OK AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE 90S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THIS AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO FORM FROM DEEPENING CU FIELDS NOW DEVELOPING FROM WRN OK INTO WRN KS. LATEST WIND PROFILES WERE SHOWING 30-35KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY FROM THESE STORMS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR. TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SITUATED SOUTH TO NORTH FROM NWRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS. HOWEVER... OVERALL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY RELATIVELY HIGH LFC AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AS WELL AS LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS OVER CNTRL OK WAS NOW MOVING SWWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND NWRN TX. WHILE AIR MASS WAS STRONGLY CAPPED AHEAD OF THIS OUTFLOW...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW STORMS TO FORM EXPLOSIVELY IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGH WIND AND A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL EVENTS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT CAN FORM. LACK OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. EVENTUALLY...STORMS OVER KS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY EWD/ESEWD ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ...HIGH PLAINS NEB NWWD TO MT AND TH WRN DAKOTAS... INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS NWWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN WY INTO MT. HOWEVER....MARGINALLY MOIST UPSLOPE SELY FLOW BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WY AND SCNTRL MT. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR AS THESE TSTM CLUSTERS PERSIST EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INFLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 00:34:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 19:34:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506160045.j5G0js5P006352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160043 SWODY1 SPC AC 160041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 10 W DIK 50 NE RAP 30 NNW VTN 30 NNW GRI 20 SSE BIE 40 SSE TOP 35 ENE TUL 25 W MLC SPS 10 ENE CDS 30 ENE AMA 25 NE EHA 45 ESE AKO 35 SSW BFF 30 NNE GCC 30 NW SHR 25 SE BIL 35 NNE BIL 65 SSW GGW 10 NE GGW 60 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 20 NW ACT 40 W BWD 50 SSW SJT 10 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW DMN 15 SSW ONM 40 NNW CEZ 35 NNW BCE 45 WNW ELY 25 NNW EKO 30 E SUN 40 NNW HLN 25 N HVR ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 40 SW BIS 35 NW PIR 20 ESE OFK 30 E MKC 25 W HRO 35 SSE FSM 45 NW TXK 50 SE PRX 15 E GGG 30 S SHV 30 ENE HEZ 20 WSW SEM 65 E MCN 35 N CRE 15 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W CAR 40 ESE AUG ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK 15 NNW HGR 35 NNE PKB 40 NE DAY 15 NW FDY 30 ENE TOL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM CONTINUE SPREADING EWD...PRIMARILY FROM NERN NM THROUGH WRN KS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KS. AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS FROM WRN OK NWD THROUGH CNTRL KS WITH 3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER NWD THROUGH WRN NEB. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SELY N OF THE E-W KS BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS NWD INTO NEB. THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE MODEST 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO PARTS OF OK. THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ENHANCING LIFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER KS. ACTIVITY OVER WRN KS HAS EVOLVED INTO AN MCS AND WILL MERGE WITH DOWNSTREAM SUPERCELLS. AN MCS WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH KS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK CAP INDICATED ON THE 00Z OKC...AMA AND DDC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE MAY CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO WRN OK NEXT FEW HOURS. ...NRN PLAINS... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE SPREADING EWD THROUGH WY AND SE MT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM SERN MT INTO NE WY. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED THAN FARTHER S. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH ERN MT...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO WLY 20 KT AT 6 KM...IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY MIGHT OCCUR AS STORMS APPROACH THE THETA-E AXIS FROM ERN MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. 00Z RAPID CITY RAOB ALSO SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE STRONG CAP SUGGESTS STORMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...SO THE THREAT IN THIS AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 05:48:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 00:48:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506160559.j5G5xjbn008852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160557 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 SW MLU 25 WNW POE 35 W LFK DAL 25 NW MWL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 35 WNW ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 45 N BAM 40 ENE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH ...CONT... 95 NNE DVL 15 NE JMS 40 NNE SUX 20 SSW SZL 20 WNW UOX 25 ENE MEI 10 N DHN SAV 20 ESE FAY 50 S RIC 45 SW DCA 20 NNE EKN 25 SE MFD FDY ARB 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 15 WNW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NWRN STATES...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN U.S.. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NERN U.S. UPPER LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A SERIES OF FRONTAL SURGES. STRONGEST FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH VORT MAX NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS IT ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE NERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... MCS NOW MOVING THROUGH OK SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION AND MODEST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY PART OF THE DAY...WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF MCS OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE HEATING... DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG FROM OK AND NRN TX NWWD THROUGH KS AND NEB. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM THROUGH CO AND WY AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM ERN CO THROUGH WY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY 20-30 KT AT 6 KM WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE...BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE EWD MOVING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT THROUGH MT AND HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF MT WITH CAPE GENERALLY AOB 800 J/KG FARTHER SW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT AND ID. OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING NEWD. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS DURING THE DAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVENING. ...NERN U.S.... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. WSWLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL EXIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30 TO 35 KT MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 12:54:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 07:54:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506161305.j5GD5U8g001101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161255 SWODY1 SPC AC 161253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDS 30 E DHT 40 E LAA 40 ENE GLD 30 N RSL 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 SW MLU 25 WNW POE 35 W LFK DAL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 45 N BAM 40 ENE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 15 WNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE RWI 45 WSW UNI 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 10 NE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE DVL 15 NE JMS 20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 20 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS...OK AND THE NRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS S AND SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN AMPLIFIED SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY STRONG NE PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SHOULD APPROACH THE ORE CST BY 12Z FRIDAY AS ONTARIO UPR LOW SETTLES SE TO LK ONTARIO. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS BAND OF FLOW...NOW OVER CNTRL KS/NW OK...SHOULD REACH THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE IN THE JET APPEARS TO NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION ATTM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ESE TO THE LWR MS VLY EARLY FRIDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE...REINFORCED IN PART BY MCS OUTFLOW...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS SE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. IN THE NW...A N/S COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO FAR WRN MT THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A BUBBLE HIGH THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM SE OK NWWD INTO WRN KS. S OF THE BUBBLE...THERE EXISTS A POOL OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS N TX. EXPECT THAT LLJ WILL BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS CONTINUES SE INTO THE LWR MS VLY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS WRN OK/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION AND SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN BUBBLE HIGH...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DIURNAL UPSLOPE /SELY/ COMPONENT TO LOW LVL FLOW...SUGGEST THAT THE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MLCAPE AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS MAY EXCEED 3500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...35-40 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM JET. AS A RESULT...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO LINEAR MCSS THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SEWD AND AUGMENTS NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ. THE MCSS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SE TOWARD ERN OK/AR/NE TX AND LA...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HIGH WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MCS NOW OVER SE OK MAY REJUVENATE OVER THE ARKLATEX AS SURFACE DESTABILIZES REGION LATER TODAY. FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS MAY YIELD WIND/HAIL SEWD INTO CNTRL LA. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/NRN CO AND PERHAPS WRN SD...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. 25 KT MID LEVEL WLY JET IN THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN WEAKER SHEAR RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S. BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. ...NRN HI PLNS/FAR NRN RCKYS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN SIERRA SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY AND ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS OF WRN MT. THIS WILL FOSTER LOW LVL E/SELY FLOW OVER THE STATE AND MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER REGION AS AREA WILL BE E OF MID/UPR LVL CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WRN PART OF THE STATE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NRN ID TO NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE EAST. HEATING...OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND INCREASING DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND NRN ID. THE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO THE PLAINS. WITH MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 40 KTS...SETUP LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS CONTAINING BOWING SEGMENTS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND INTO LATE EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... RECENT WV SATELLITE DATA SUPPORT GFS SOLUTION DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OH/WRN PA LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE LIKELY WILL LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY/PA LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MD/DE/NJ. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR TIME OF YEAR AND REGION /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S/...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT MID LVL WSW FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO UPR LOW. SETUP MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. GRADUAL RETREAT OF YESTERDAY'S BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONGER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE NYC AREA AND PERHAPS SW NEW ENG. ...ERN LWR MI TO NRN OH... WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER IN WV IMAGERY NOW N OF SSM SHOULD ROTATE S AND THEN SE ACROSS LWR MI LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW FREEZING LVLS...SOME OF THE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL. BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 12:54:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 07:54:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506161306.j5GD6NJt001495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161255 SWODY1 SPC AC 161253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDS 30 E DHT 40 E LAA 40 ENE GLD 30 N RSL 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 SW MLU 25 WNW POE 35 W LFK DAL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 45 N BAM 40 ENE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 15 WNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE RWI 45 WSW UNI 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 10 NE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE DVL 15 NE JMS 20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 20 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS...OK AND THE NRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS S AND SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN AMPLIFIED SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY STRONG NE PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SHOULD APPROACH THE ORE CST BY 12Z FRIDAY AS ONTARIO UPR LOW SETTLES SE TO LK ONTARIO. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS BAND OF FLOW...NOW OVER CNTRL KS/NW OK...SHOULD REACH THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE IN THE JET APPEARS TO NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION ATTM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ESE TO THE LWR MS VLY EARLY FRIDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE...REINFORCED IN PART BY MCS OUTFLOW...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS SE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. IN THE NW...A N/S COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO FAR WRN MT THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A BUBBLE HIGH THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM SE OK NWWD INTO WRN KS. S OF THE BUBBLE...THERE EXISTS A POOL OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS N TX. EXPECT THAT LLJ WILL BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS CONTINUES SE INTO THE LWR MS VLY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS WRN OK/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION AND SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN BUBBLE HIGH...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DIURNAL UPSLOPE /SELY/ COMPONENT TO LOW LVL FLOW...SUGGEST THAT THE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MLCAPE AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS MAY EXCEED 3500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...35-40 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM JET. AS A RESULT...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO LINEAR MCSS THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SEWD AND AUGMENTS NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ. THE MCSS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SE TOWARD ERN OK/AR/NE TX AND LA...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HIGH WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MCS NOW OVER SE OK MAY REJUVENATE OVER THE ARKLATEX AS SURFACE DESTABILIZES REGION LATER TODAY. FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS MAY YIELD WIND/HAIL SEWD INTO CNTRL LA. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/NRN CO AND PERHAPS WRN SD...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. 25 KT MID LEVEL WLY JET IN THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN WEAKER SHEAR RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S. BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. ...NRN HI PLNS/FAR NRN RCKYS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN SIERRA SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY AND ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS OF WRN MT. THIS WILL FOSTER LOW LVL E/SELY FLOW OVER THE STATE AND MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER REGION AS AREA WILL BE E OF MID/UPR LVL CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WRN PART OF THE STATE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NRN ID TO NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE EAST. HEATING...OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND INCREASING DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND NRN ID. THE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO THE PLAINS. WITH MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 40 KTS...SETUP LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS CONTAINING BOWING SEGMENTS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND INTO LATE EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... RECENT WV SATELLITE DATA SUPPORT GFS SOLUTION DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OH/WRN PA LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE LIKELY WILL LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY/PA LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MD/DE/NJ. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR TIME OF YEAR AND REGION /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S/...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT MID LVL WSW FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO UPR LOW. SETUP MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. GRADUAL RETREAT OF YESTERDAY'S BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONGER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE NYC AREA AND PERHAPS SW NEW ENG. ...ERN LWR MI TO NRN OH... WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER IN WV IMAGERY NOW N OF SSM SHOULD ROTATE S AND THEN SE ACROSS LWR MI LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW FREEZING LVLS...SOME OF THE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL. BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 16:40:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 11:40:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506161651.j5GGpLqi025350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161559 SWODY1 SPC AC 161557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDS 45 E DHT 40 E LAA 30 SSE IML 55 NE HLC 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 E ESF 40 NW LFT 25 WNW LFK DAL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 55 WNW WMC 30 NE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 15 NE JMS 20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 25 SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 SE EWN 25 WNW ECG 10 E RIC 20 E CRW 25 SW CMH 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 10 NE OSC ...CONT... 50 NNE BML 35 S 3B1 30 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MONTANA... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW REMAIN OFF PAC NW COAST WHILE UPPER LOW OVER SERN ONTARIO DROPS SWD INTO WRN NY BY TONIGHT. S/WV TROUGHS ROTATING THRU BOTH SYSTEMS WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING ONE ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WA/OR/WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NE ONE IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER ONE ROTATING EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY. NWLY FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS E OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS SWD TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW NOW ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN TX. STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE E OF DIVIDE IN MT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE PAC NW...PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... HAVE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK AREA ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF AFTERNOON FOR THE STRONG HEATING TO REDEVELOP THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEEDED FOR SEVERE STORMS. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH EXPECTED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY SWRN NE/NWRN KS IN UPSLOPE REGIME. INITIALLY HIGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DURING EVENING ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS'S WILL EVOLVE AND ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY MOVE S/SE INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK EARLY TONIGHT. ...MT... RATHER MOIST SWLY FLOW ACROSS WRN HALF OF MT AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH COUPLED WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE IN ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF WRN HALF OF MT. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES E OF DIVIDE WITH 50KT OR GREATER SFC-6KM SHEAR SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH MINIMAL CURRENT CLOUD COVER...STRONG HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE MUCH OF STATE TODAY. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MOUNTAINS OF WRN MT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOP. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SHORT LINES DURING THE EVENING INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS MT PLAINS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... MDT/STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP ALONG WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO FOCUS REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LA INTO NERN TX. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD GULF COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING. ...COASTAL REGIONS NERN U.S... LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MID LEVEL COOLING. WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSE FROM OH VALLEY AND 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON. BEST REGION WOULD BE ERN PA ACROSS NJ WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY THREAT IS MARGINAL HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT IS LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 20:11:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 15:11:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506162022.j5GKM9XK000906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162014 SWODY1 SPC AC 162012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDS 45 E DHT 40 E LAA 30 SSE IML 55 NE HLC 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 10 S OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 35 WNW LIT 20 NNE BTR 30 NW 7R4 50 N HOU 10 WSW DAL 20 N ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 35 SE DGW 35 NNE CPR 20 NE RIW 30 WSW JAC 40 WNW MQM 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 55 WNW WMC 30 NE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 35 S 3B1 30 SW BHB ...CONT... 25 SE EWN 25 WNW ECG 10 E RIC 20 E CRW 25 SW CMH 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 15 SE APN ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 15 NE JMS 20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 25 SSE SAV. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL AND WRN OK INCLUDING THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...AND NWRN TX INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MT... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...1) OVER SERN CO/NRN NM AND 2) OVER NRN CO ATTM...WITH THESE TROUGHS EXPECTED TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LA NWWD ACROSS ERN TX TO OK AND FAR WRN KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING AND ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY FROM OK TO LA HAVE REINFORCED THE SURFACE FRONT IN THESE LOCATIONS. A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SRN NEB MAY BECOME A SECOND FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE LACK OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND CAPPING PER 18Z SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ATTM. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK TO AROUND LBL. THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF CO MID LEVEL TROUGHS ARE WEAKENING THE CAP. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS'S THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT... APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES IN ID/SWRN MT/NWRN WY. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SWWD ACROSS MT. TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN MT. THIS MAY INHIBIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM ID INTO WRN MT. FURTHER EAST...VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MT WHERE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATED STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND SHOULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/NWRN WY AND SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL MT...WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE ENABLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SHORT LINES DURING THE EVENING INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EWD. ...ERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA AHEAD OF TWO MCV'S MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS AREA. VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CELL DURATION. ...COASTAL REGIONS NERN U.S... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN PA INTO SERN NY WITH A SECOND AREA OVER SWRN PA. DESPITE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXTENDING FROM VA TO SERN NY... THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 00:52:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 19:52:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506170103.j5H13eK7012139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170101 SWODY1 SPC AC 170059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CSM 35 SE EHA 30 WSW GCK 40 NNE GCK 40 WNW HUT 40 WSW CNU 45 E BVO 20 W PGO 25 ENE DUA 30 NW SPS 30 SW CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 10 S OFK 15 SSW FNB 50 SSE OJC 35 WNW LIT 15 SE BTR 30 W 7R4 55 N HOU 35 SSW FTW 15 N ABI 35 SE MAF 40 W INK 15 NW CNM 40 WSW CVS 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 30 S DEN 35 SSW DGW 30 N CPR 20 NE RIW 15 W JAC 40 WNW MQM 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 20 S TPL 40 ESE SJT 35 SE FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 35 SE ELP 45 E 4CR 20 SW RTN 15 SW EGE 40 S EVW 15 NNE ENV 80 SSE BNO 20 SSW RDM 40 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 25 NW FSD 20 W SZL 50 N GLH 25 S MEI 10 ESE MAI 20 SE JAX ...CONT... 20 SSW NEL 25 SSE CXY 20 NW HLG 10 S TOL 20 SW MBS 15 SE APN ...CONT... 50 NNE BML 35 S 3B1 30 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS THROUGH MUCH OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS OK. THIS AFTERNOON A NW-SE ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN CO SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK...EXTREME NERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A THETA-E AXIS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM SWRN KS SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO ARE SPREADING EWD INTO WRN KS. OTHER STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPED FARTHER EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SWRN KS. THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM MODE SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN MCS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND THIS EVENING. THE SSWLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND INTO SWRN KS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF THE BOUNDARY FROM OK INTO KS. AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS...THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AND TRACK GENERALLY SEWD ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT THROUGH OK SUPPORTED BY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND 30-40 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THE WRN FLANKS OF THE MCS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RELATIVE TO THE BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST FROM NW THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN OK. ...ID AND MT... ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING NEWD THROUGH WRN U.S. UPPER LOW AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ID INTO MT. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S E OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH 60S OVER ERN MT AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOW SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE ESELY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 05:42:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 00:42:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506170553.j5H5rdue005733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170549 SWODY1 SPC AC 170547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 50 SSW PHP 45 WSW MHN 20 W IML 15 ENE AKO 40 SE CYS 25 ENE CYS 55 NE DGW 30 NNW GCC 40 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 30 NNW HLN 25 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 30 N CLL 10 NNE ACT 20 SW MWL 40 S SPS 45 E SPS 25 NNW PRX 30 SSE PGO 40 NNW HOT 30 NW LIT 35 E LIT 35 SSW GLH 30 NE MCB 10 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 55 WSW AXN 30 SSE FSD 15 NNE FNB 25 NE UNO 45 NNE MEI 35 SSW SEM 10 NW TOI 10 ESE LGC 25 W AHN 35 N CAE 25 SSW SOP 35 NNW RWI 35 ESE CHO 50 E MGW 10 WNW DUJ 35 ENE ART 25 ENE PBG ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 30 NE AUS 65 NNE BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 WNW DGW 60 NNW CPR 25 SW EVW 45 E U31 50 E LOL 70 SSE BNO 45 WSW BNO 60 NE MFR 20 S CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AND ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN STATES. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND MT TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. ..MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS... SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE STATE REACHING ERN MT BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACCELERATION OF SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND WRN SD AND SPREAD NEWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SRN PLAINS... ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL OK MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...AND STORMS MAY REINTENSIFY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SPREAD SEWD. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. FARTHER W AND NW THROUGH NWRN TX...OK AND KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PERSIST FROM THURSDAYS STORMS...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 12:44:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 07:44:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506171255.j5HCtV6W020254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171253 SWODY1 SPC AC 171251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 20 WSW GLD 20 SSW LIC 25 ENE CYS 55 NE DGW 30 NNW GCC 50 SSE LVM 30 NNW HLN 25 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 30 N CLL 10 NNE ACT 20 SW MWL 40 S SPS 45 E SPS 25 NNW PRX 25 N ELD 30 ENE JAN 30 E LUL 30 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 50 E SJT 45 W PVW 30 NW CAO 30 N 4FC 45 NNW DGW 35 E WRL 25 N RIW 35 ESE BPI 40 NNW EVW 15 ESE BYI 45 NNE OWY 95 SE BNO 30 E MHS 25 SSW CEC ...CONT... 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD 25 NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 20 SE GWO 50 E LUL 40 N CEW 25 E ABY 45 SSW AGS 45 SSE CLT 30 W GSB 50 NNE RDU 20 SSE LYH 15 NNW CRW 30 E ZZV 30 N IPT 15 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER TX COAST... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER TX COAST... MCS /SMALL BOW ECHO REMAINS INTACT MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR AT 13Z. SYSTEM MAY STRENGTHEN SOME AND TURN A BIT MORE SELY THROUGH THE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/DESTABILIZES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED BOW ECHO WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE WIDESPREAD/DAMAGING IF SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS/S. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER OK WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH /EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND SHV/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS CAP WEAKENS AND ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE REGION...SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES SHOULD ORGANIZE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND SHIFT SEVERE THREAT SSEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AROUND THIS CIRCULATION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SPREADING MID LEVEL JET EWD TODAY ACROSS MORE OF MT AND ARCING MODERATE WSWLY H5 WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/WRN MT NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT INCREASING AS AFTERNOON HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND NEAR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THREATS WILL INCLUDE POSSIBLE TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENHANCED SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW CENTER...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STRONG SLY LLJ MAY SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK INTO ERN MT AND WRN ND. FARTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE HOT. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR STORM INITIATION/SUSTENANCE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODELS MAY BE OVER-DRYING THE SURFACE...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINK WITH ANY MCS EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL/NERN MT LATER THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 16:35:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 11:35:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506171646.j5HGksmf017573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171635 SWODY1 SPC AC 171633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BPT 55 N HOU 30 NE CLL 15 E ACT 20 NNE SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 SSW ADM 35 NNW GGG 25 NNE ESF 15 ESE HEZ 40 E MCB 40 SSE MOB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 25 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC LIC 55 ENE DGW 35 NW GCC 45 NE WEY 20 N HLN 25 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD 25 NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 45 ESE GWO 45 NE MEI 15 E MGM 40 NNE ABY 45 SSE AGS 25 SSW FAY 30 SSW GSB 25 NW ECG 25 W SHD 35 NNE CRW 35 ENE PKB 25 WSW BFD 20 NW EFK ...CONT... GLS 20 NE AUS 30 NW JCT 25 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 S MRF 25 WSW FST 25 E HOB 50 SE CVS 40 NNE TCC 25 NW DEN 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50 SSW TWF 35 NE OWY 90 WNW OWY CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR E TX AND LA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SRN LA/E TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ENHANCED BY AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS OK...WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SW AR TO THE GULF COAST BY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WSWWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL LA. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED S OF THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS EXTREME E TX AND SRN LA BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F. GIVEN THE MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV...A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE TX ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AREA...ASSUMING CONVECTION BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER NW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR...BUT RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A BROAD/DEEP MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE ORE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD AS MULTIPLE SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. IN PARTICULAR...A 60-110 KT SPEED MAX IN THE 500-250 MB LAYER OVER NV/SW ID THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NNEWD TOWARD WRN MT THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE EWD FROM CENTRAL INTO ERN MT THIS EVENING. ALONG AND E OF THIS LOW/FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE SPREADING NWWD INTO ERN MT. THIS MOISTENING...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 19:41:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 14:41:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506171952.j5HJqTjQ007117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171949 SWODY1 SPC AC 171948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BPT 55 N HOU 30 NE CLL 15 E ACT 20 NNE SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 SSW ADM 35 NNW GGG 25 NNE ESF 20 ESE HEZ 45 SW LUL 40 SSE MOB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 25 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC LIC 55 ENE DGW 35 NW GCC 35 NW WEY 20 N HLN 35 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 20 NE AUS 30 NW JCT 25 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 S MRF 25 WSW FST 25 E HOB 50 SE CVS 40 NNE TCC 25 NW DEN 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50 SSW TWF 35 NE OWY 90 WNW OWY CEC ...CONT... 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD 25 NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 45 ESE GWO 45 NE MEI 15 E MGM 40 NNE ABY 45 SSE AGS 25 SSW FAY 30 SSW GSB 25 NW ECG 25 W SHD 35 NNE CRW 35 ENE PKB 25 WSW BFD 20 NW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN LA/E TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN AR...WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. A SECOND MCV...NOW LOCATED OVER NERN TX...WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT...RE-REINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM SRN LA WNWWD ACROSS ERN TX TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER NWRN TX. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE TWO MCV'S/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. 40-45 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NRN-ERN TX PER AREA VWPS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. FARTHER TO THE NW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THESE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE AIR MASS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DIURNAL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL ID ATTM WILL SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NE ACROSS MT TODAY...WHILE PRIMARY BROAD/DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PAC NW COAST. INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THIS SPEED MAX WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WRN MT. STORM INTENSITIES AND SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS ONGOING AND NEW ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW-MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH THE SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...FL... A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTIONS OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZES. THE WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 00:51:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 19:51:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506180102.j5I12iwe030414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180101 SWODY1 SPC AC 180059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 25 NW BPT 40 S LFK 55 W LFK 60 E ACT 45 W TYR 30 NW TYR 20 ENE GGG 35 SE SHV 30 E ESF 30 WNW BTR 15 SSE 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 55 S Y22 15 NNW CDR 45 W CDR 45 ENE DGW 45 S 81V 20 NNW GCC 20 NNE SHR 45 S BIL 35 SSE 3HT 40 NW LWT 60 ENE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 25 SE CLL 30 W TPL 45 WSW BWD 45 SW SJT 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 NE MRF 20 ENE HOB 50 SE CVS 35 WSW DHT 20 ENE 4FC 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50 SSW TWF 55 SW BOI 45 NNW 4LW 4BK ...CONT... 60 N DVL 35 W JMS 9V9 20 ESE BUB 25 NW CNK 30 WNW SLN 30 NE LBL 65 ENE AMA 25 SW LTS 35 SE SPS 50 SE PRX 20 W MLU 15 SSW MEI 20 ENE TOI 50 WNW SAV 15 SE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK BML 35 E MWN PWM ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 20 NW ABE 25 NNE IPT 25 NW ELM 10 NNE ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT AND LIFT NEWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING NEWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF NWRN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THIS OCCURS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT AND WY...REACHING THE WRN DAKOTAS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GRADUALLY SPREADING THROUGH ERN MT LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS THE LOW DEEPENS THIS EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER ERN MT...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. ACTIVITY MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS...ESPECIALLY WRN ND LATE TONIGHT. ...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY... A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN LA NWWD THROUGH NERN TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM NERN TX INTO NRN LA...AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS IT SPREADS SEWD. FARTHER WWD...TOWERING CUMULUS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NERN TX...AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MAY BE HELPING TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGESTS IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 05:36:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 00:36:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506180547.j5I5lehx010515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180545 SWODY1 SPC AC 180543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL 30 NNW FAR 30 SW JMS 40 NW MBG 35 WSW REJ 20 ENE 4BQ 30 E MLS 20 S ISN 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DAB 45 ESE VLD 20 ESE ABY 20 W MCN 35 WSW AHN 25 NW AND 30 ESE SPA 40 SW SOP 25 ESE FAY 25 E EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E NIR 35 SE HDO 40 WSW BWD 30 NNW MWL 35 S DUA 45 ENE SHV 30 SSW JAN 60 SW SEM 25 E MGM 30 ENE CHA 25 SW 5I3 25 SSW CRW 40 N SSU 30 N RIC 20 SSW ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 30 SW HIB 10 NE ATY 35 WNW YKN VTN 15 SSW CDR 20 S DGW 20 SSW RKS 30 ENE SLC 30 E ENV 65 W OWY 15 SW 4LW 30 WNW LMT 30 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MT THROUGH MUCH OF ND INTO NWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN GA THROUGH MUCH OF SC AND SRN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL STATES FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AND TEND TO SUPPRESS THE NWRN EXTENTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NRN ND. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN SD AND NERN WY. IN THE EAST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO GA AND SC DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PERSIST FROM SRN SC WWD THROUGH SRN GA AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. ...NRN PLAINS... STEEP LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DUE TO PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LIFT MAY EXIST ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN ND TO INITIATE STORMS AS CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND DEVELOP SWWD MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE WRN EXTENTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER NERN ND. ...CNTRL AND SRN GA...NRN FL THROUGH SC.... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL/SRN GA EWD INTO SC. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY. WEAK CAP...AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING VORT MAX SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 12:43:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 07:43:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506181254.j5ICsaKV023550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181252 SWODY1 SPC AC 181251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL 35 NNW RAP 10 NNE GCC 35 NNW SHR 55 WSW MLS 35 W GDV 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DAB 15 E CTY 30 WSW VLD 20 W MCN 35 WSW AHN 25 NW AND 30 ESE SPA 40 SW SOP 25 ESE FAY 25 E EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS 55 NE CLL 40 N GGG 30 SSW JAN 60 SW SEM 10 N TOI 30 ENE CHA 25 SW 5I3 25 SSW CRW 40 N SSU 30 N RIC 20 SSW ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 30 SW HIB 10 NE ATY 20 S DGW 20 SSW RKS 30 ENE SLC 30 E ENV 65 W OWY 15 SW 4LW 30 WNW LMT 30 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...NRN PLAINS... SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BECOME ORIENTED NE-SW FROM N-CENTRAL ND INTO NERN WY BY LATE TODAY. SECONDARY LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WY THIS MORNING WILL LIKEWISE DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO WRN SD BY LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG CAPPING ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ND LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. SHOULD CAPPING BREAK...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH NEWD MOVING STORMS INTO THE EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OR DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER ND AS SLY LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. FARTHER WSW...NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NERN WY/SERN MT BORDER REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE LOW. CAPPING WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SRN MT/FAR NRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SEVERITY AS THEY MOVE ENEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST... MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP / I.E. 6.5 C/KM FROM H85-H5 / ATOP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SERN GA AHEAD OF NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 65-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS... EXPECT HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES...AS WELL AS A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 16:27:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 11:27:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506181638.j5IGcFeu024528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181629 SWODY1 SPC AC 181628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW RRT 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 40 NNE REJ 65 WSW DIK 15 NNE SDY 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VRB 15 WSW AGR 15 S PIE 35 N PIE 20 WNW ORL 25 WNW DAB 15 S JAX 30 NNE AYS 55 SW AGS 15 WNW AHN 25 W AND 45 ESE AND 25 SE CAE 10 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 35 SSE ESF 40 NE MSY 30 ESE MOB 20 W DHN 10 N CSG 45 WNW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 35 N SHD 45 SW RIC 20 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10 S ABR 25 SW RAP 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 SSE MRF 35 ESE MRF 20 SSW MAF BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SWD TO CENTRAL FL.... ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM NW TX TO WRN KS/NEB...NWD TO ND. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PLAINS...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA/DNR/RAP ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM FROM THE MOIST AXIS THAT ARE 3-5 C WARMER NEAR THE BASE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL ND WHERE A BAND OF AT LEAST WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING SLOWLY EWD. HERE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 F AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...THOUGH MLCIN COULD STILL EXCEED 50-75 J/KG. ASSUMING STORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIFTING SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH SMALLER SCALE WAVES NOW ROTATING EWD OVER N FL AND COASTAL GA/SC...AND SEWD FROM ERN TN TOWARD N GA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW HAS FORMED BETWEEN MCN-AGS...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND WWD TO SRN LA. A RELATIVELY THICK BAND OF CLOUDS OVER S GA/N FL IS LIMITING SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND TO THE S OF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THESE TWO AREAS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. ...SW LA/EXTREME SE TX THIS AFTERNOON... A FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE SW INTO A NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SW LA/E TX MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE HAIL FORMATION IN THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WARM PROFILES WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 20:04:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 15:04:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506182015.j5IKFOvq020917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182007 SWODY1 SPC AC 182006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW RRT 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 40 NNE REJ 65 WSW DIK 15 NNE SDY 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE VRB 35 SSW AGR 35 E PIE 55 S GNV 25 WNW GNV 15 S JAX 30 NNE AYS 55 SW AGS 15 WNW AHN 25 W AND 45 ESE AND 25 SE CAE 10 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 35 SSE ESF 40 NE MSY 30 ESE MOB 20 W DHN 10 N CSG 45 WNW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 35 N SHD 45 SW RIC 20 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10 S ABR 25 SW RAP 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 NNE MRF 35 SE INK BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SWD TO CENTRAL FL... ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NWRN ND AND A SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ERN ID/SWRN MT. THE LATTER TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS MT THIS EVENING AND INTO SRN CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY PROVIDING ASCENT FOR POTENTIAL STORMS ACROSS SRN-ERN MT INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN-CENTRAL MANITOBA SWWD INTO FAR NWRN ND TO THE VICINITY OF THE MT/WY BORDER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS/. CLOUD STRUCTURE /BILLOWS/ ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUGGESTED THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT. GREATER VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL/NERN MANITOBA WHERE AIR PARCELS WERE REACHING THE LFC. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION INTO ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN SURFACE BASED STORMS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG/N OF COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SE INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION PER ID SHORT WAVE TROUGH GLANCING ND OVERNIGHT AND WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING PLAINS SLY LLJ. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF AREAS OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SRN SC AND ERN GA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL. A WEAK AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE GA COAST NWWD TO NRN GA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST TO MARGINAL VALUES FARTHER NWWD OVER NRN GA/WRN NC. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING SRN ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. FARTHER S ACROSS FL...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED E-W ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL /S OF JAX/...AND ACROSS CENTRAL FL ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AND WITH INTERSECTIONS OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA/ LAKE BREEZES. SIMILAR TO FARTHER N...SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ...SW LA/SE TX... EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN LA NWWD ACROSS SE-NW TX...WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED HIGH THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SE TX/SWRN LA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NLY MID LEVEL WINDS PER AREA VWPS INDICATED ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE INTO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 00:47:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 19:47:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506190058.j5J0w00j030383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190055 SWODY1 SPC AC 190053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 25 WSW REJ 25 SSW 4BQ 45 NNE SHR 60 E BIL 50 ENE BIL 70 NNE OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W AND 15 SW GSP 30 ENE CAE 45 NNW CHS 35 W CHS 25 N SAV 45 WNW SAV 45 ENE MCN 30 SSW AHN 30 W AND. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 30 SE ESF 40 W GPT 35 WNW PNS 20 W DHN 15 N CSG 45 NW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 40 N SHD 30 N RIC 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10 S ABR 30 S RAP 30 WNW BFF 45 SSW DGW 55 WSW GCC 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 NNE MRF 35 SE INK BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF GA AND SC... ...ERN MT/ND... MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE FRONT FROM E OF MOT TO W OF BIS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN WY...AND A SECONDARY...WEAKER BOUNDARY JUST W OF MOT AND P24. DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE WEAKENED CAP CONSIDERABLY /PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING WHETHER OR NOT INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. GIVEN ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 00Z BIS SOUNDING...ANY STORMS THAT DO INDEED DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOIST INFLOW ALONG DEVELOPING SLY LLJ FROM CNTRL/ERN SD INTO ERN ND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO STORM CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ND WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER W...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST INTO SERN MT ALONG COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN ID INTO S-CNTRL MT WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF IMPLIED ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WWD EXTENSION OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR BIL. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT. ...GA/SC... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM NEAR AHN TO NEAR CAE WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 03-04Z...BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COLLAPSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 05:00:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 00:00:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506190511.j5J5B3Fn024004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190509 SWODY1 SPC AC 190506 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ELO STC 25 WNW RWF 30 W HON 25 SW COD 25 E MQM BTM 35 E HLN 25 WNW P24 55 NNE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DAB 20 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 20 NNW ABY 20 N MCN 30 ESE AGS 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM 25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 E MQT EAU 30 W OTG 15 S ANW 35 NNE IML 40 WSW IML LIC 30 WNW COS 30 E EGE RWL 15 SSE LND 35 N BPI 25 W JAC 30 E SUN 35 S BOI 80 N WMC 30 ESE 4LW 10 SSE MHS 30 ENE CEC 15 SW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AQQ 15 SSE DHN 10 ESE AUO 10 NNE CSV 15 SSW JKL EKN 30 NNE CHO 30 NNE RIC 20 N ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 25 SW CNM 25 NE INK 45 ENE FST 25 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF GA/SRN SC AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH DAY ONE PERIOD WITH CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COAST...AND DOMINANT RIDGE FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE N-CNTRL STATES. SOME FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE WILL OCCUR FROM S-CNTRL CANADA SWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF ND/MN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN B.C./NWRN ALBERTA DIVES SEWD INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL ND TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN WY WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E WITH TIME AS NRN PORTION OF BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO MN...WHILE WRN EXTENSION REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS... REMNANTS OF TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SERN MT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 19/12Z OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL ND...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH INTENSIFICATION/BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINALLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND NWRN WY. MAINTENENCE OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT N OF FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN PACIFIC LOW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY MECHANISMS INITIATING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT INTO SERN MT LATER THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF NRN SD/ND OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM MORE DISCRETE ELEMENTS INTO A MCS OR CLUSTERS TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. ...PORTIONS OF GA/SRN SC AND NRN FL... POCKET OF COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ WITHIN BASE OF ERN CONUS TROUGH...WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY NUMEROUS BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH AREA MAY FOCUS MOST INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR /OWING TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET AXIS THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY EVEN MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...ORE COAST EWD TO THE CASCADES... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -20 C AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 12:29:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 07:29:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506191240.j5JCehmb029864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191237 SWODY1 SPC AC 191235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DAB 20 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 20 NNW ABY 20 N MCN 30 ESE AGS 30 E CHS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E INL 50 ESE BJI 50 WSW AXN 40 NW HON 10 SSW 81V 15 SSW COD 25 SSE LVM 25 ESE 3HT 45 SSE GDV 55 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT EAU 30 W OTG 15 S ANW 35 NNE IML 40 WSW IML LIC 30 WNW COS 30 E EGE RWL 15 SSE LND 35 N BPI 25 W JAC 30 E SUN 35 S BOI 80 N WMC 30 ESE 4LW 10 SSE MHS 20 SSW CEC ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM 25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AQQ 15 SSE DHN 10 ESE AUO 10 NNE CSV 15 SSW JKL 25 SE MGW 30 W MRB 30 NNE RIC 20 N ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 25 SW CNM 25 NE INK 45 ENE FST 25 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...NRN PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGED SWD INTO MORE OF ND IN WAKE OF SEVERE MCS MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL FRONT POSITION LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NWRN MN INTO SWRN SD/NRN WY BY LATER TODAY. THOUGH AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...STRONG CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN ON FRINGE OF MODERATE MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND...SHOULD CAP WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...ENSUING ACTIVITY WILL BE WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE NEARER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SRN MT/NRN WY AND WRN SD LATER TODAY...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THESE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ONGOING STORMS AND FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS SLY LLJ INCREASES...WHICH WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AWAY FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF ND/NRN SD OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST... REGION WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS GA SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...AS -10C TO -12C H5 TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HEATING STEEPEN LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRENGTHENED WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS /I.E. H5 WINDS FROM 20-30 KT/ ALONG BASE OF UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST THIS MORNING EAST OF LEE TROUGH FROM FAR SERN WY/WRN NEB INTO ERN CO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DESPITE DIURNAL MIXING. AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD THEREFORE INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK OVER CO...THOUGH MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS REMAIN STRONGER ACROSS WY AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. ...WRN ORE... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST TODAY...THOUGH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL EXTEND INLAND WITH -18C TO -20C H5 TEMPERATURES OVER NRN CA AND MUCH OF ORE. APPEARS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THIS REGION BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR BRIEF ORGANIZATION TO ENSUING MOIST CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 16:24:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 11:24:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506191635.j5JGZm5Q031241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191625 SWODY1 SPC AC 191623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S ORL 40 W DAB 15 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 15 ESE ABY MCN 30 WNW AGS 15 SSW CAE 15 SSE CHS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 20 SSE BJI 55 WNW AXN 50 SE MBG 15 SSE GCC 35 S SHR 25 SSE BIL 55 ENE BIL 35 SSE GDV 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG 25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF ...CONT... 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT 20 ENE FSD 25 NE IML 30 E LIC 30 SW LIC 25 WNW COS 40 N 4FC 15 SSE CPR 25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50 WNW SUN 70 S S80 40 ENE S80 40 NNE 3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL ...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65 E 63S 25 SSW 4OM 40 ESE DLS 10 NNW BNO 80 SE BNO 75 N WMC 75 SE 4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI 35 W UKI ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM 40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 25 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 20 SSE SAT 15 W AUS 20 SSE TPL 40 E TPL 35 WNW HOU 10 WNW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SC/GA AND NE FL.... ...NRN PLAINS AREA... THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT STORMS IN ND HAVE MOVED NEWD INTO ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO NW MN...WHILE THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NE ND SWWD TO SW SD/NE WY. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH CRESTING THE RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EML/CAP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING AT BIS/RAP...AND SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT ABR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ESTIMATED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 90S IN THE WARM SECTOR...THUS ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NARROW BAND OF ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT NEAR AND SE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG/...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE REGION OF FOCUSED WAA AND ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR AND NE OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...AND SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS. ....SE STATES TODAY... THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION /NEAR AGS/ SHOULD DRIFT SEWD/EWD THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION NEAR/SE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S...MID-UPPER FLOW AND SHEAR ARE STRONGER OVER N FL...BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK. STILL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PERSISTENT STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL ELY COMPONENT IS ENHANCED. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...ORE AREA... THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NW CA/SW ORE COASTS. WITHIN THE BROADER LOW...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NWD FROM NW CA TO WRN/CENTRAL ORE LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR -20 C...COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADES. ..THOMPSON.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 19:50:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 14:50:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506192001.j5JK1QRi016184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191957 SWODY1 SPC AC 191956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 20 SSE BJI 55 WNW AXN 50 SE MBG 15 SSE GCC 35 S SHR 25 SSE BIL 55 ENE BIL 35 SSE GDV 60 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S ORL 40 W DAB 15 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 15 ESE ABY MCN 30 WNW AGS 15 SSW CAE 15 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT 20 ENE FSD 25 NE IML 30 E LIC 20 NW LHX 10 N PUB 30 S 4FC 15 SSE CPR 25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50 WNW SUN 70 S S80 40 ENE S80 40 NNE 3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL ...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65 E 63S 25 SSW 4OM 40 ESE DLS 35 WNW BKE 30 ENE BNO 70 NW OWY 50 W OWY 75 SE 4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI 35 W UKI ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM 40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 25 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG 25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 20 SSE SAT 15 W AUS 20 SSE TPL 40 E TPL 35 WNW HOU 10 WNW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SC/GA AND NE FL... ...NRN PLAINS AREA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN MANITOBA INTO NERN ND TO A LOW LOCATED BETWEEN BIS/MBG...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN TRAILING SWWD TO THE SWRN SD/NEB BORDER AREA AND INTO CENTRAL WY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000-3500 J/KG AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED...HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN PLAINS APPEAR TO PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IN ADDITION...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS AIDING IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP... THEY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN MT... WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ANY STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSES ITO THIS REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OVERNIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD. ...SE STATES... SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FL GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS...AND MOVING INLAND ALONG THE GA/SC COASTAL REGION WILL REMAIN FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SRN GA WILL ALSO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER GA AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SRN GA/NRN FL TO THE SC COASTAL AREA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS UNTIL AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SC/NC...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY SHEARED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/ STABILIZES. ....ORE... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...NOW OVER NRN CA...WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS ORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE CASCADES WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER. ...TX COAST... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST...GIVEN PLUME OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER THIS REGION THAT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE...WITH LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 00:49:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 19:49:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506200100.j5K10IGZ031008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200058 SWODY1 SPC AC 200056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 30 NNE BRD 50 WSW AXN 25 NNE 9V9 30 N MHN 10 WNW AIA 45 SSE DGW 10 W DGW 35 E WRL 50 NNW COD 35 ESE 3HT 30 ESE GDV 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT 35 NNE SUX 15 WSW HLC 20 SSE LAA 15 SSW LHX 15 WSW PUB 50 WNW COS 15 SSE CPR 25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50 WNW SUN 70 S S80 45 NNE S80 55 N 3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL ...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65 E 63S 40 SW GEG PDT 35 WNW BKE 30 ENE BNO 70 NW OWY 50 W OWY 75 SE 4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI 35 W UKI ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM 40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 25 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG 25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MT AND ERN WY... ...RED RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO MT/WY... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2500-4500 J/KG/ EXISTS THIS EVENING FROM N-CNTRL MN SWWD INTO SD AND THE NEB PNHDL ALONG AND E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR RRT TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIR SWWD ACROSS THE NWRN NEB PNHDL AND THEN MORE NWWD INTO NRN WY. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS OVER NWRN MN TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN ND INTO ERN SD ALONG INTENSIFYING LLJ AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD 1394. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SERN MT/NERN WY...POSSIBLY INTO WRN SD. DESPITE RATHER STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z RAP SOUNDING...WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER ELEVATION HAVE LIKELY ERODED THIS FEATURE OVER NERN WY WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT BENEATH 30-35 KTS OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN ND AND WRN SD. FINALLY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE LOCALLY WEAKENED CAP ALONG FRONT OVER THE NRN NEB PNHDL WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. ...SERN STATES... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS EWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS WITH REGION OF COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTING WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ORE... FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD ACROSS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /PER 00Z SLE SOUNDING/ HAS SUSTAINED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER THE CASCADES OF NRN/CNTRL ORE. OBSERVED STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 05:03:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 00:03:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506200514.j5K5EXhg000308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200511 SWODY1 SPC AC 200509 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT MOT 10 NE JMS 35 ESE BRD 45 WNW EAU 25 S RST 30 N FOD 50 SSW PHP 30 SE BIL 45 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 30 NNE GLH 15 SSW MEM 45 N MSL 55 SE BNA 40 WSW LOZ 50 N JKL 30 NE HTS 40 WNW EKN 20 NE EKN 15 ENE ROA 15 SSW DAN FAY 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE GBN 40 NNW GBN 10 ENE IGM 30 NNW SGU 40 ENE MLF CAG 10 S LAR DGW 25 SW GCC COD 30 WNW JAC 35 ENE SUN 20 N BOI 45 ENE 4LW 15 SSE LMT 35 S MFR 15 NW 4BK ...CONT... 55 SE OSC 15 SSE LAN CGX BRL STJ RSL LBL 20 WSW MAF 45 SW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/SRN MN NWWD INTO ERN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY DOMINANT RIDGE FROM NRN MEXICO/SRN PLAINS INTO THE N-CNTRL STATES...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND E COAST. RIDGE AXIS WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT AS AMPLIFYING CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SAG SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES WHILE WRN EXTENSION RETREATS NWD INTO CNTRL MT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS. ...CNTRL/SRN MN WWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO ERN MT... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 20/12Z ALONG/N FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MN WWD INTO THE DAKOTAS WITHIN RATHER WEAK...BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THOUGH SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...AVAILABILITY OF POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG/ S OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION/RENEWED DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN WWD INTO SD. STRONGEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE N ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM. HOWEVER BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INVOF OF FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT OWING TO INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. HERE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 45-60 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL ND AND POSSIBLY NWRN SD. ...ERN TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO FL... COMBINATION OF RATHER COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS SWD INTO FL. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND MAIN CIRCULATION...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE WEAK CAP WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TSTM BY AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM ERN KY INTO WRN AL AND ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA MAY SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PACIFIC NW... RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES E OF ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY LATER TODAY FROM NWRN ORE NWD TO PUGET SOUND WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG. APPEARS THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS AREA AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY OWING TO SLIGHT WWD RETROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 12:41:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 07:41:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506201252.j5KCqEdf019378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201250 SWODY1 SPC AC 201248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 25 ENE SDY 30 NNW JMS 25 SSE ELO 15 NNW IMT 20 ESE AUW 15 SSE MCW 55 SE 81V HLN 50 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 15 SSE LAN CGX 35 W MLI 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE CVS 20 WSW MAF 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 40 NNW GBN 10 ENE IGM 30 NNW SGU 40 ENE MLF CAG 35 WSW LAR DGW 25 SW GCC COD 30 WNW JAC 35 ENE SUN 20 N BOI 45 ENE 4LW 15 SSE LMT 35 S MFR 15 NW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 30 NNE GLH 15 SSW MEM 40 SE MKL 10 NE BNA 60 W LOZ 50 N JKL 30 NE HTS 40 WNW EKN 20 NE EKN 15 ENE ROA 25 SE DAN 15 WSW GSB 20 ENE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN GREAT LAKES... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TODAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY PRIMARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MN SWWD ACROSS NRN SD AND WNWWD INTO CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER MCS/S WILL COMPLICATE THE SURFACE PATTERN TODAY. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AREA OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF SD...SERN ND AND SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 55-65F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTENDING NWWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN/CENTRAL MT. BOW ECHO MOVING INTO SERN ND AT 13Z WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT INTO AT LEAST W-CENTRAL MN. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT PRECEEDING THE BOW ECHO. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO FAR NRN WI...ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NRN WI THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT FROM WRN MN WWD. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING CAP UNDER STRONG HEATING AND MAY SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES BY 21Z INTO SD/SRN ND AND INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF NWD RETURN OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO FAR SWRN SD EARLY THIS MORNING. MLCAPES WITHIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS SD MAY EXCEED 4000 J/KG ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS INTO MT...SHEAR WILL BE MARKEDLY STRONGER UNDER 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE THE WARM MID LEVELS...ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...OR EXPECT INCREASING SSWLY LLJ TO DEVELOP ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AFTER DARK. THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY...EVOLUTION INTO A BOW ECHO MAY OCCUR FOR THE THIRD NIGHT IN A ROW AND SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD AND POSSIBLY SWRN MN LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL EXTEND N-S FROM N-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS WITHIN WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST... PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS REGION SETTLES UNDER MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...PAC NW... REGION REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AREA OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN POSE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 16:34:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 11:34:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506201644.j5KGil6h011436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201631 SWODY1 SPC AC 201630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DLS 45 W RDM 30 SSE EUG 10 SSE ONP 45 S AST 15 SSW HQM 35 NNW OLM 15 SSW SEA 20 W DLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE GGW 20 S ISN 55 SW DVL 25 SW BJI 40 NE IWD 25 WNW IMT 30 S CWA 30 ESE MCW 50 SSW MHE 35 ESE CDR 40 W CDR 20 SSW GCC 25 S SHR 45 NE COD 40 SSE 3HT HLN 55 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE FAY 50 E ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN 30 W IGM 40 N LAS 55 ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE CPR 50 E WRL 25 NW WRL 45 ENE WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30 SSE MFR 15 SSE CEC ...CONT... 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN 30 W BEH 20 WNW BRL 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE CVS 20 WSW MAF 90 SW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM YKM 40 SSE YKM 30 W PDT 10 SW ALW 30 WNW PUW 20 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM MN TO MT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NW ORE/SW WA.... ...NRN PLAINS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MN. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED BY LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ITS COLD POOL...WHERE ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A SEPARATE E-W BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS IN CENTRAL MN. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS ENEWD FROM SD INTO CENTRAL MN...WHICH MAY HELP MAINTAIN THE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION...BUT DEEP LAYER WINDS/SHEAR BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER TO THE E OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND THIS MAY TEND TO COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING STORMS...A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SD AND NE WY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO ELY/ESELY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE OUTFLOW AIR MASS. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S INTO S CENTRAL MT AND 60S INTO SE MT AND ADJACENT SD/ND...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE BLACK HILLS WNWWD INTO SRN MT...AND THEN MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR PERSISTENT BOW ECHOES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...NW ORE/SW WA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NWD OVER SW ORE...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW NEAR 41 N AND 130 W. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND W OF THE CASCADES. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ...SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON... THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS NEAR THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL...AND IN THE REGION OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR W OF THE TROUGH AXIS ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 20:07:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 15:07:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506202018.j5KKIFVR027646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202010 SWODY1 SPC AC 202009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DLS 45 W RDM 30 SSE EUG 10 SSE ONP 45 S AST 15 SSW HQM 35 NNW OLM 15 SSW SEA 20 W DLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 45 N BIS 55 NW ABR 35 E ABR 15 N RWF 20 ESE MSP 35 WNW RHI 30 S IMT 10 WNW GRB 10 NNW ALO 30 SSW SUX 20 S MHN 20 W AIA 40 SSW 81V 15 W SHR 25 SW LVM 15 NE BTM 60 NE MSO 55 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN 30 W BEH 20 WNW BRL 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE CVS 20 WSW MAF 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN 30 W IGM 40 N LAS 55 ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE CPR 50 E WRL 15 SSE COD 30 SSW WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30 SSE MFR 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE FAY 50 E ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM YKM 40 SSE YKM 30 W PDT 10 SW ALW 30 WNW PUW 20 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WI...WWD INTO MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN ORE/SWRN WA... ...MS VALLEY... EARLY MORNING MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO WCNTRL WI. STRONGEST SURGE IS EWD INTO WI...WITH ONLY A SLOW SWD PROPAGATION INTO SRN MN/SERN SD. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FEEDING INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE FSD REGION...APPARENTLY ENHANCED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON UPSHEAR SIDE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EVENTUALLY SAG SWD INTO NRN IA WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. DOWNSTREAM...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN WI MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO THAT AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ARCING SQUALL LINE. WITH TIME THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST THINKING IS THIS MAY OCCUR FIRST OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF MT...NEAR THE LITTLE BELTS/BIG SNOWY MOUNTAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THIS REGION WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. AIRMASS IS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME...AN MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED CLOUD COVER HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ON THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A SLOW-GROWING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE INHIBITION OBSERVED AT 19Z ON RAP SOUNDING...THIS MAY STRUGGLE FOR A FEW HOURS. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEB...AND ACROSS NERN WY/WRN SD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ...NWRN U.S... UPPER LOW HAS PROGRESSED LITTLE OFF THE NRN CA/ORE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/REGION OF ASCENT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED. IT APPEARS WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ORE...THEN SPREAD NWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SWRN WA. LARGE HAIL COULD EASILY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 00:36:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 19:36:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506210046.j5L0kl1R006805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210044 SWODY1 SPC AC 210042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 45 N BIS 20 WNW ATY 25 W RWF 30 E MKT 10 N LSE 25 SSW VOK 35 NE DBQ 25 NNE MLI BRL 25 W MCK 20 NW LHX 30 W PUB 50 NNE DGW 10 WSW SHR 25 SW LVM 15 NE BTM 60 NE MSO 55 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN 30 W BEH 30 SSW PIA 30 S IRK 10 W STJ 50 SE GLD 40 NW LBL 15 N PVW MAF 40 SSW P07 ...CONT... 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN 30 W IGM 40 N LAS 55 ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE CPR 50 E WRL 15 SSE COD 30 SSW WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30 SSE MFR 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM 35 NNE EPH 30 ESE EPH 30 E ALW 25 S LWS 35 E PUW 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE FAY 50 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO IA... ...SRN MN/IA WWD INTO NEB AND CO... MATURE MCS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN IA AT AROUND 30 KTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN IA. MCS SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS CAP INTENSIFIES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. WWD DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG MCS GUST FRONT INTO SERN SD/NERN NEB WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS MCS...PLEASE SEE MCD 1406. OTHER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER THE NEB PNHDL SWD INTO ERN CO WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-5000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS AREA...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... 00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL MT SEWD THROUGH NERN WY AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN SD. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN MT TO AS HIGH AS 4000-4500 J/KG ALONG/S OF BOUNDARY OVER S-CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB. DESPITE GRADUALLY BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER NRN ROCKIES /PER WATER VAPOR LOOP/...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS. CURRENT VWPS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT INDICATE STRONG VEERING THROUGH LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL WITH 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO ND...AND POSSIBLY NWRN SD. ...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SWD TO THE NERN GULF COAST... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER ERN KY AND NRN AL WITHIN MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME WRAPPING WWD AND THEN SWD AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. 00Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING IN NLY WINDS ABOVE 6 KM AGL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THROUGH 03-04Z...PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...WA/ORE... CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM W OF RDM TO S OF PDT WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO E OF RETROGRADING ERN PACIFIC LOW SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS LIKELY NEGLIGIBLE OR SUBSIDENT ACROSS REGION. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVER THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1407. ..MEAD.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 04:59:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 23:59:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506210510.j5L5AgVu024302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210508 SWODY1 SPC AC 210506 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW JHW 10 SW MFD 10 ESE IND 45 SSE UIN 15 NNW STJ 35 WNW EAR 25 WSW GCC 25 NNW SHR 50 SSE LVM 15 WNW BYI 40 NNE OWY 60 SE BNO 45 ESE DLS 45 NE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 20 S DVL 40 W FAR 20 W EAU 30 WNW OSH 40 ESE MBL 35 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 S DAG 30 SW TPH 35 E NFL 20 W LOL SVE 15 ESE RBL 60 SE EKA 25 S CEC ...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10 W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 45 W EMP 45 W HUT 10 NE DDC 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW GDP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES NWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW... ...SYNOPSIS... ERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND LIFT NEWD INTO WRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPSTREAM HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF AK. MEANWHILE....BROAD AND DOMINANT RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION...WHILE DOWNSTREAM FULL LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY EVOLVES OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND CANADA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS ERN CANADA WILL SAG SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN STRETCH NWWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES TO INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... MCV /WELL INITIALIZED BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS/ OVER WI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ WITHIN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI AND NRN/IL AND IND SWD TO THE OH RIVER. DEVELOPMENT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM SWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO LOWER MI WILL RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER TO THE NE FROM NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...APPEARS STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INVOF ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...HOWEVER ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FORECAST REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT AND THEIR IMPACT ON AIR MASS STABILITY AND ANY SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVER SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA MAY ORGANIZE A COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE S/SEWD ALONG MO VALLEY PRIOR TO 21/12Z. FARTHER NW...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT MAY MERGE INTO A MCS...POSSIBLY BEING LOCATED OVER FAR NERN MT/WRN ND AT THE START OF THE DAY ONE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM CNTRL NEB NWWD SERN MT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE NERN MT/WRN ND MCS TO CONTINUE TODAY SEWD ALONG THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO CNTRL/ERN SD AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NEB...IA AND MN. THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES /POSSIBLY A LARGER-SCALE BOW ECHO/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMNANT FROM NOCTURNAL MID MO VALLEY MCS. ...PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES... SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH OPENING TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO WRN CANADA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE AIR MASS IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAKS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA EWD INTO ID AND WRN MT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ACROSS DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KTS/...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...HOWEVER RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE OUTFLOW/COLD POOL PRODUCTION. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 12:37:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 07:37:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506211248.j5LCmBfc017893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211246 SWODY1 SPC AC 211244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 35 SSW DVL 15 WSW EAU 25 E LSE 50 NW DBQ 40 W FOD 40 NW CDR 45 SE BIL 40 SSE LVM 40 N BYI 45 NNE OWY 40 SE BNO 40 ESE DLS 40 NE BLI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ERI 15 NNE CAK 30 W DAY 25 NNW IND 50 N LAF 20 NW AZO 45 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 S DAG 30 SW TPH 35 E NFL 20 W LOL SVE 15 ESE RBL 60 SE EKA 25 S CEC ...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10 W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 30 ENE ICT 30 SSW HUT 40 W P28 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW GDP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA TODAY AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFT NWD AWAY FROM UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING SLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ROBUST TODAY...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF INCREASED SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS WRN MT AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF CENTRAL/NERN MT OVERNIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY... FORECAST WILL BE COMPLICATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DIMINISHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO NRN SD AT 13Z. NOT ONLY HAS CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVITY LEFT AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE BUBBLE OF CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED AIR...BUT THIS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY TODAY. CONVECTIVE BUBBLE MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO ERODE AND LIMIT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WNWWD INTO SD/CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS APPEARS UNAFFECTED BY THE EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER...EVEN HERE CAPPING SHOULD HINDER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN LARGE SLGT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY DUE TO NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR...AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE NEAR SURFACE FRONT FROM NERN MT/NWRN SD SEWD TOWARDS SRN MN/FAR NRN IA. ...SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A STEADY SEWD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SSEWD INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ALONG NOSE OF 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SUGGESTING SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES COULD OCCUR WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 16:31:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 11:31:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506211641.j5LGfp0j012587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211631 SWODY1 SPC AC 211630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW MOT 40 NNE BIS 35 ENE BKX 40 SE FSD 10 ESE YKN 25 NE AIA 55 W CDR 10 W GCC 20 NNW SHR 45 SSE LVM 20 SSE DLN 60 SSW MSO 30 ENE S80 45 SW S80 55 SSE BKE 20 NW BNO 65 ENE RDM 50 ENE DLS 45 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 10 SW DAG 35 WSW TPH 75 NW WMC 65 E 4LW 10 SSE 4LW 45 NW SVE RBL 55 W RBL 25 S CEC ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 NE DLH 35 ENE AUW 20 NNE MBL 40 N APN ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W ORF 40 N EWN 20 S ILM ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 35 S EMP 10 ESE ICT 40 ENE GAG 45 NW CDS 25 E INK 50 SW INK 70 SW GDP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MT AND THE DAKOTAS.... ...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS/MT AREA... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS NEB GENERATED A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT IS DRIFTING SWD OVER SE NEB...WHILE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF NEB AND ERN SD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A SEPARATE MCS IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN SD...ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE REMAINING UNCONTAMINATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PLUME ACROSS WRN SD. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE 12Z RAP SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SD. FARTHER NW IN MT...THE 12Z GGW/TFX SOUNDINGS REVEALED MUCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MT...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL MT AND SPREAD NNEWD TOWARD N CENTRAL MT/SE ALBERTA/SW SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE EVENING/TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA THAT WILL CREST NRN ROCKIES RIDGE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/ WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM AZ NWD TO ID. MODIFYING FOR DAYTIME HEATING...INVERTED-V PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH FROM AZ NWD THROUGH UT/ERN NV TO ID. ...SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON... THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER WRN NC/VA HAS ELONGATED NNE-SSW AND IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT EWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES /NEAR -12 C/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE AREA FROM NRN AL/GA TO THE WRN CAROLINAS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ...LOWER MI TODAY TO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT... REMNANTS OF A WEAK MCV /FROM CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER MN/WI/ IS MOVING SEWD OVER LOWER MI...WHILE A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ESEWD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE TODAY...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A NARROW PLUME OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM WI/NRN LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...THOUGH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL REMAIN IN SE CANADA TODAY. A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MI...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION MOVING SEWD INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INVOF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA AS WELL. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 19:49:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 14:49:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506212000.j5LK0Hww008102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211957 SWODY1 SPC AC 211955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 40 W DVL 60 NE BIS 45 S JMS 40 NE BKX 40 SE FSD 10 ESE YKN 25 NE AIA 55 ENE DGW 10 WSW GCC 10 W SHR 45 NW COD 30 E DLN 55 SW 3DU 45 ENE GEG 35 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 35 S EMP 10 ESE ICT 40 ENE GAG 45 NW CDS 25 E INK 50 SW INK 70 SW GDP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 10 SW DAG 35 WSW TPH 75 NW WMC 65 E 4LW 10 SSE 4LW 45 NW SVE RBL 55 W RBL 25 S CEC ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 NE DLH 35 ENE AUW 20 NNE MBL 40 N APN ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W ORF 40 N EWN 20 S ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS... LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND 18Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SUGGESTS INHIBITION IS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL/NRN MT. CONTINUED SUNSHINE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SOON LEAVE AREA UNCAPPED...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE NWD MOVING THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO SWRN MT. THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL ENHANCEMENT APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS LIFTED NWD FROM THE DESERT SW REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA/ORE COAST. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS NOW THICKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND HIGH SFC DEW POINTS/RH VALUES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS UPDRAFTS ORGANIZE AND SPREAD TOWARD SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. IN ADDITION...WARM ADVECTION ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT HAS ALLOWED STRONG TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER IN SRN CANADA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST...NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN ND COULD OCCUR ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS ERN ORE...WITH LATEST DATA INDICATING VALUES AOB HALF AN INCH. SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER CU NOTED. SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION NORTH AND EAST FROM EXTREME NERN WA INTO NRN ID WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDES. ...LOWER MI TO NRN NEW ENGLAND... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEP CONVERGENCE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER...ROUGHLY 170MI...EXTENDING FROM ERN QUEBEC INTO ONTARIO EAST OF SSM. IT APPEARS THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT APPROACH NRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...BEYOND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THUS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES SOMEWHAT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LOWER MI...DROPPING SWD TOWARD NWRN OH. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING ORGANIZED SEVERE LEVELS. ...SERN U.S... UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS SC/GA. SCT-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH COLDER MID LEVEL TROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE. MARGINALLY SEVER HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DARROW.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 00:31:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 19:31:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506220041.j5M0ftxn022102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220039 SWODY1 SPC AC 220037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT 35 ESE MOT 30 N BIS 30 NW MBG 40 SW MBG 30 N PHP 25 SW PHP 35 NNW CDR 60 NE DGW 10 WSW GCC 10 W SHR 45 NW COD 30 E DLN 55 SW 3DU 45 ENE GEG 35 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 15 E EAU 10 E LNR 20 S LAN 120 ENE APN ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W ORF 40 N EWN 20 S ILM ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 20 NNW ARG 35 S TBN 35 WNW SGF 35 NE BVO 25 NNW PNC 35 SSW EHA 35 N TCC 65 W CVS 45 ENE ALM ELP ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 25 SSW LAS 60 NE TPH 30 ENE WMC 95 E 4LW 4LW 35 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 10 E CEC 45 NNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... ...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WA SEWD INTO SRN ID/SWRN MT...WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAX FROM NWRN NV INTO SWRN MT. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WRN/CNTRL MT SWD INTO WRN WY INTO NERN UT...AS WELL AS IN REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NE OF OPENING UPPER LOW OVER WRN/CNTRL WA. STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT DEEPER MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SOME LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS OVER WRN/CNTRL MT...THOUGH AIR MASS STILL REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FARTHER E...00Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 4000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WITH APPROACH OF WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN MT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE W OVER PORTIONS OF WA...AND SEWD INTO SRN ID AND WRN WY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 04:40:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 23:40:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506220450.j5M4ohAx026254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220447 SWODY1 SPC AC 220446 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 N CMX 30 W IWD 45 ESE BRD 15 SE FAR 35 SSE DVL 35 SE MOT 35 ESE SDY 40 W GDV 65 W MLS 25 SSE LVM 20 SW BZN 20 S HLN 40 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU 35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP 30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NNW CAO 35 SW LVS 60 WNW TCS 30 NNE TUS 15 SSW FHU ...CONT... 20 SSW IPL 35 SW EED 35 N DRA 40 NE U31 60 NNE BOI 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE 30 WSW PIA 35 WNW EVV 20 SW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 WSW BFD 20 N RUT 30 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MN WWD INTO MT... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE CANADIAN W COAST EWD INTO THE PRAIRIES OF AB/SK AS TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST PHASES WITH INTENSIFYING SYSTEM DIVING SEWD ACROSS BC. AS A RESULT...FLATTENING OF CNTRL CONUS RIDGE WILL OCCUR WITH REBOUNDING HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN CANADA SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS ENEWD FROM CNTRL AB INTO NWRN MB BY 23/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE E...WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...WRN GREAT LAKES WWD TO MT... REMOTE SENSOR DATA SHOW MCS EVOLVING TONIGHT OVER SRN AB INTO SWRN SK...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN COMPLEX ACROSS SRN SK PRIOR TO 22/12Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS MCS TO DEVELOP MORE SEWD TODAY INTO AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/ IN PLACE ACROSS NRN MN. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AHEAD OF EVOLVING WRN CANADA TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO INHIBIT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS...CATEGORICAL RISK ACROSS THIS AREA IS CONDITIONAL ON STORMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER W...INCREASING SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DRYING BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG FRONT OVER MT. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND 40-5O KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS /HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...ID/WY SWD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS... PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES/ COUPLED WITH DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE STRONGER STORMS OVER FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT STRONGER INSTABILITY. ...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF FRONT/TROUGH FROM E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH AREA. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 12:28:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 07:28:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506221239.j5MCd0v8022805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221236 SWODY1 SPC AC 221234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N CMX 40 WNW IWD 50 ESE BRD 20 SSE FAR 10 SE DVL 40 ESE MOT 30 N BIS 45 NNW MBG 35 NW PHP 40 W RAP 20 SSW 4BQ 20 ESE LVM 40 WNW 3HT 85 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU 35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP 30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NNW CAO 35 SW LVS 60 WNW TCS 30 NNE TUS 15 SSW FHU ...CONT... 20 SSW IPL 30 ESE DAG 60 WNW DRA 25 S BAM 60 NNE BOI 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE 30 WSW PIA 35 WNW EVV 20 SW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 ENE JHW 15 N ALB 30 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY AS TROUGH FINALLY PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET SPREADING EWD OVER MUCH OF MT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM NE-SW FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN MT INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL MT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE ESEWD OVERNIGHT. THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SSWLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO MAINTAIN 50-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO NERN MT TODAY DESPITE STRONG DIURNAL MIXING/HEATING. WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INTO CENTRAL AND NERN MT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES AS STORMS SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER SOUTH...LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY FROM ERN MT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING JUST TO ITS EAST. CONVERGENCE AND MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH ...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ATOP A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKLY ORGANIZED/BRIEF OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE NWD INTO 20-30 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN SD/SERN MT/SWRN ND...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS REGION IN SLGT RISK TODAY. ...ND INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... SEVERE THREAT AT BIT MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION THAN POINTS FARTHER WEST. OVERNIGHT RUNS OF NAM AND GFS STILL CONSISTENT IN SUSTAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...WITH PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SSEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE / I.E. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG / AND SHEARED /40-50 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR / TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP SSEWD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN... POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...PRESENCE OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER A VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 16:36:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 11:36:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506221647.j5MGlQMw014891@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221632 SWODY1 SPC AC 221630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N CMX 45 NE DLH 50 ESE BJI 25 SSW TVF 50 NNW GFK 35 NNW DVL 45 W DVL 30 N BIS 45 S BIS 30 NW PHP 20 E RAP 35 ESE 81V 20 SSW 4BQ 45 ESE LVM 40 W 3HT 85 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE 30 NW SPI 50 SSW HUF 25 SSW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 ENE JHW 15 N ALB 25 NE PWM ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU 35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP 30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NW CAO 35 N SVC 40 SSW SAD 15 S DUG ...CONT... 25 ENE CZZ 10 N DAG 40 SW TPH 50 NNW U31 60 NNE BOI 75 S S80 35 W S06 30 WNW GEG 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN MT TO NRN MN.... ...NRN PLAINS AREA... THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE DAKOTAS. SEVERAL SPEED MAXIMA ARE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE...THE MOST OBVIOUS OF WHICH IS MOVING ENEWD OVER ERN MT/SE SASKATCHEWAN. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SPEED MAX...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS MOVING ESEWD OVER SRN MANITOBA. THE INSTABILITY FEED FOR THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE JUST OFF THE SURFACE FROM THE SSW...WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW REGIME AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MN DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTION INTO MN. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ACROSS NRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MANITOBA STORMS...BUT THE MANITOBA STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY FAR INTO MN BEFORE WEAKENING. FARTHER W...A MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME IS OVERSPREADING WRN/CENTRAL ND AND NW SD IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF ERN MT. ASIDE FROM SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THIS PLUME...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM EML /700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 12-14 C/ WILL TEND TO CAP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN. THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD WARM AND DRY FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IMPINGES ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE. IF STORMS FORM...VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LATER TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS ERN MT INVOF A SE MOVING COLD FRONT. THOUGH CAPE WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE...VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS. ...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON... LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING...THOUGH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS ERN IA/SW IL MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IF STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON... INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF W/SW PROPAGATING STORMS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA THIS AFTERNOON... SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY THIS AREA SHOULD BE FOCUSED BY A SE MOVING COLD FRONT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 20:01:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 15:01:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506222011.j5MKBnv3017841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222009 SWODY1 SPC AC 222007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N CMX 45 NE DLH 50 ESE BJI 25 SSW TVF 50 NNW GFK 35 NNW DVL 45 W DVL 30 N BIS 45 S BIS 30 NW PHP 20 E RAP 35 ESE 81V 20 SSW 4BQ 45 ESE LVM 40 W 3HT 85 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 25 WSW CAE 55 NNW AHN 30 SW CSV 40 SSE PAH 15 NE TBN 20 E FNB 15 SW SUX 25 NNE YKN 40 SSW MHE 10 ESE BBW 40 NNE GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NW CAO 40 NW 4CR 30 WSW SVC 60 E DUG ...CONT... 30 SW IPL 10 N DAG 40 SW TPH 50 NNW U31 60 NNE BOI 75 S S80 35 W S06 30 WNW GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 15 ESE MQT 10 ENE RHI 35 E EAU 35 S LSE 20 WNW MLI 50 SSW HUF 25 SSW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB DUJ ALB 25 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 WSW HOU 25 NNE HOU 25 SW POE 20 W MCB 45 SE LUL 10 NW DHN 10 NE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO NRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST REGENERATING TSTMS ON UPSHEAR SIDE OF DECAYING ERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO MCS. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE BORDER INTO ND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT IS TOPPING RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO TURN EWD TOWARD MN. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS EXPANDING CLUSTER OVER ND...STRONG INHIBITION...ROUGHLY 100-200J/KG...WILL LIKELY PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPMENT FORCING PARCELS TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH TIME MANITOBA CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE MOVING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY LATE. STRONG HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM UT/CO...NWD INTO SWRN MT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WEAK SWRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES ENHANCING THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PROSPECT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD WITHIN OTHERWISE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. FARTHER NORTH...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS WRN ND/ERN MT HAS SUPPRESSED BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SUBSIDENCE IS WEAKENING UPSTREAM OVER SWRN MT WHERE CU FIELD IS THICKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVER MT THIS EVENING AS SPEED MAX MOVES INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND HIGH BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD WRN ND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...NERN U.S./MIDDLE ATLANTIC... UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...IT APPEARS A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING UPDRAFTS. ...IA/MO/IL... VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM SRN IL...NWWD INTO CNTRL IA. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THIS ZONE MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. IF SO...BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE BUOYANT AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. IF CONVECTION DOES EVOLVE...IT WOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SSWWD BEFORE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEAT. ..DARROW.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 01:05:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 20:05:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506230115.j5N1Fd9c004291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230113 SWODY1 SPC AC 230111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 35 ESE RAP 40 WSW RAP 20 SSW 4BQ 45 NE COD JAC 20 E IDA BTM 40 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ANJ 40 NE PLN PLN AUW LSE MLI MTO MVN VIH FSD HON PIR MHN 35 W GLD 30 ESE 4CR TCS SAD 15 SSW DUG ...CONT... 15 SSW YUM DAG NFL LOL WMC 27U 55 E S80 S80 ALW EPH 60 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE FLO CLT TRI BLF CHO BWI ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES REGIONS... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR MOST OF CONUS WILL REMAIN INTENSE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH...WITH RIDGING NWD ACROSS MB. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS...WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS STABILIZATION COMMENCES THROUGH MUCH OF TROPOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- WILL MOVE WED ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NRN ID...INTO WRN MT BY END OF PERIOD. LOWER AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EMBEDDED IN MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO TURN SEWD ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES... AS NWRN TROUGH APCHS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER THIS TENDENCY WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY DIABATIC SFC STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET. CLUSTER OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN ID INTO SWRN MT AND EXTREME NWRN WY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND MAR5GINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYERS...WITH SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS COMMONLY IN 40-50 DEG F RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING. RELATED ACCELERATION IN PARCEL DESCENT CONTRIBUTING TO SFC GUST THREAT...PARTICULARLY ON SWWD SLOPES FACING MEAN WIND. OTHERWISE REF WW 512 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF MT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT ALSO INCREASING SBCIN. EXPECT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AFTER 03Z. ...NRN MN TO UPPER MI... STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REPRESENTED BY 00Z INL SOUNDING SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS MORE OF WRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION INVOF SWLY LLJ. THIS WILL RENDER AIR MASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION...AND FOR ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD FROM NWRN ONT -- VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER NRN MN AND NRN WI...WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 05:21:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 00:21:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506230531.j5N5Vq0b010748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230529 SWODY1 SPC AC 230528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 50 SSE ELO DLH MSP FRM SPW YKN 9V9 ABR GFK 75 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CEC 40 NW MFR 70 N LMT 60 NNE LMT 15 WNW 4LW 50 NNW SVE 40 W SVE 50 SE EKA 30 E CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM DRA 40 E TPH 30 WSW TWF 27U BTM 3HT GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC MTW 40 NNE ALO LNK GCK DHT 40 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 50 N HOU 20 NNE LFK 35 SE SHV JAN MEI 30 NNW MGM AHN 40 S CLT 20 S RDU 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MN AND ERN DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS...WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER FL AND ERN GULF...AND PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW FIELD OVER CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD FROM UT/CO ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER NW STATES -- IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MT/SK BETWEEN 23/06Z AND 23/12Z...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF MN DURING DAY-1 PERIOD. THIS FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SEWD OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...REACHING CENTRAL NEB AND ERN CO BY 24/12Z. ...UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER SW OVER STRONGLY HEATED/HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NEB/NERN CO. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS/MN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...SUPPORTING STRONG TO EXTREME LATE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY. MODIFIED ETA AND ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 3000-4500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION. CINH IS REMOVED FOR 1. MID-UPPER 90S F SFC TEMPS...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN FCST...AND/OR 2. ENHANCED FRONTAL ASCENT...WHICH IS POSSIBLE. STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN N OF CANADIAN BORDER. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER NRN/CENTRAL CONUS...BENEATH RELATIVELY WARM 700 AND 500 MB TEMPS...RENDERING NEAR-FRONTAL SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL WITH INCREASING DISTANCE FROM BORDER. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED...PRIND PROBABILITIES ARE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FRONTAL FORCING AND DIABATIC HEATING TO BREAK CAP THAT CATEGORICAL RISK SHOULD EXTEND INTO ERN SD. SINCE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS CANADA...BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME WLY COMPONENT...LIMITING SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB/SD BORDER NWD. FARTHER SW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH MIDLEVEL WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...INTENSE SFC HEATING AND RESULTANT DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG-SEVERE GUST AND HAIL POTENTIAL IN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. MOST PROBABLE AREA/TIME FOR SUCH ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM NERN CO ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB...IN 21Z-01Z TIME FRAME. ..EDWARDS/BANACOS.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 12:28:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 07:28:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506231239.j5NCdEgq020435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231236 SWODY1 SPC AC 231235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMX 30 N RHI 30 W EAU 20 WNW MKT 25 SW MHE 35 WSW MHE 15 W 9V9 30 NE PIR 25 SW JMS 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CEC 40 NW MFR 70 N LMT 60 NNE LMT 15 WNW 4LW 50 NNW SVE 40 W SVE 50 SE EKA 30 E CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 50 N HOU 20 NNE LFK 35 SE SHV 35 SE MLU 20 WSW MEI 30 NNW MGM 15 SSE AHN 40 S CLT 20 S RDU 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 60 SSW LAS 40 E TPH 30 WSW TWF 10 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MTW 30 S OSH 10 S CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 20 NE ALN BRL 50 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PROMINENT LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING INCLUDE A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN MANITOBA. BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES EXTEND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES OVER NWRN MT/ALBERTA AT 23/12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...PARENT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE /998MB/ OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SSWWD INTO ERN MT. FRONT MARKS LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING THAT WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY. AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY MOIST ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SEWD INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING/EVAPOTRANSITIVE EFFECTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AXIS OF LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FROM ERN ND SEWD TO SERN IA. LEAD IMPULSE AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN ND. A SEPARATE NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS UPPER MI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY ON ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH LATE MORNING. ...ERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... STRONG CAPPING INVERSION INITIALLY IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH NERN EXTENTION OF 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+14 TO +15C/ ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN WILL BE SHUNTED EWD IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/VERTICAL MOTION WITH APPROACHING DYNAMIC TROUGH. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ND AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS ERN SD AS CAP WEAKENS FROM WEST-TO-EAST. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 5000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING SUGGESTS CONDITIONAL THREAT OF FAST MOVING BOW SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LEAVES SOME QUESTION AS TO EXTENT OF CAP EROSION THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS NERN ND EWD INTO NRN MN. UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME. ...CENTRAL/WRN NEB INTO NERN CO/ERN WY... STRONG SURFACE BASED HEATING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ERN SD SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SW-NE ZONE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH PEAK HEATING CYCLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/ AND WEAK CINH BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ALONG SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCED LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LAKE EVENING. SEPARATE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN ERN WY AND CO FRONT RANGE. AS STORMS TRAVERSE DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT EWD ACROSS FAR ERN WY/NERN CO...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DCAPE VALUES PROJECTED BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG IN NAM-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. ..BANACOS/EVANS.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 16:32:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 11:32:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506231642.j5NGgcc7010598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231628 SWODY1 SPC AC 231626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMX 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 35 ESE PHP 15 W ABR 40 SSE JMS 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB 20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN/NW WI.... ...DAKOTAS/MN/NW WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX OVER MT EJECTS EWD/ENEWD NEAR AND JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN BY EARLY TONIGHT...PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN SWEPT EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ON THE NOSE OF A VERY WARM EML PLUME OVER THE DAKOTAS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 27-30 C AT THE BASE OF THE EML ARE PROVIDING A STRONG CAP OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 F. MEANWHILE... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO WRN ND...IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NE ND/MN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME /WHICH DOES NOT CONSIDER CIN/ AND THE BELT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING ALONG OR A LITTLE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONT...BENEATH THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO MN. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS...THOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CAA IN THE AREA WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM AS FAR SW AS THE HIGH PLAINS. DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 19:52:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 14:52:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506232002.j5NK2c4j021851@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232000 SWODY1 SPC AC 231958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MQT 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 40 ESE PHP 50 SE MBG 15 W JMS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB 20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN ROCKIES. A HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM NWRN MN TO ERN SD. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S F AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS MN. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FARTHER SOUTH...THE CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO WRN MN AND ERN SD BY EARLY EVENING. ACROSS ERN SD...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERED WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO ERN AND SRN MN BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION. ...HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN WY...NERN CO AND SWRN SD. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER-TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP SUGGESTING A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS SRN CA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 19:58:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 14:58:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506232009.j5NK9391026665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232006 SWODY1 SPC AC 232005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MQT 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 40 ESE PHP 50 SE MBG 15 W JMS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB 20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN ROCKIES. A HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM NWRN MN TO ERN SD. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S F AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS MN. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FARTHER SOUTH...THE CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO WRN MN AND ERN SD BY EARLY EVENING. ACROSS ERN SD...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERED WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO ERN AND SRN MN BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION. ...HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN WY...NERN CO AND SWRN SD. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER-TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP SUGGESTING A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS SRN CA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 22:38:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 17:38:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506232248.j5NMmuX0018778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232247 SWODY1 SPC AC 232245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 232245Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MQT 25 SE IWD 20 WSW OTG 55 W YKN 10 NNW HLC 35 ENE LIC 60 E CDR 55 ENE PIR 50 NE JMS 70 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB 20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS..AND NOW PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AMENDED FOR CENTRAL PLAINS ...CENTRAL PLAINS ADDITION... REF WW 514 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 00:57:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 19:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506240108.j5O187Wr010911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240106 SWODY1 SPC AC 240104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IWD MSP 20 WSW OTG 55 W YKN 10 NNW HLC 35 ENE LIC 60 E CDR 55 ENE PIR 40 E FAR 20 WNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 60 SSW SGU U24 ENV EKO OWY 40 SE BOI DLN BZN MLS P24 65 NNW DVL ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 35 S LSE MCW SUX OLU 50 WNW CNK 45 NW GCK 50 NNW TCC 40 WNW 4CR ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 30 NNW CEW TOI CSG CAE GSB 35 S ECG 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MN AND WRN LS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE/QUASISTATIONARY AREA OF HIGH HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CONUS. UP TO 100 KT FLOW OBSERVED AT 24/00Z IN NRN MT WITH NRN STREAM JET CORE...S OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER WRN NEB/NWRN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NEB. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS NERN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB AND ERN CO. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO CROSS UPPERMOST MS VALLEY AND WRN LS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NEB. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... REF SPC WWS 513/515 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF FRONT OVER NRN MN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MCS WITH PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN BOUNDARY WATERS AREA AND ADJACENT NERN MN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DIABATIC SFC COOLING WILL REDUCE SBCAPE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES MN ARROWHEAD. MUCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS INDICATE SEVERE WIND LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WITH BOW ECHOES. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT. MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...EITHER WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OR BOOKEND MESOCIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWS. FARTHER S ACROSS SD/NEB...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS OVER DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYERS....INVOF SFC FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT AND SBCINH SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...LIMITING DURATION OF ORGANIZED SEVER THREAT. REF SPC WW 514 AND ACCOMPANYING DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITHIN A FEW HORUS AFTER SUNSET. ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 05:36:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 00:36:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506240546.j5O5kdbu016801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240544 SWODY1 SPC AC 240542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MKG MLI P35 CNK HLC GLD LIC DEN FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM BZN BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS REJ PHP 40 SE 9V9 OTG ESC ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 45 SE OTH 45 WNW BKE 40 SW S80 50 SSW MSO 3DU 45 WNW GTF 25 N CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE ISN 40 SSW Y22 25 NE PHP 25 SSE PIR BKX 50 WNW RHI MQT ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC BRL TOP 30 ESE DDC TCC 4CR 35 WNW ALM 45 SE DMN ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 30 SW GBN 60 NW GBN 40 ENE BLH TRM 35 ESE PMD NID 45 SE BIH TPH 60 SW U31 30 SSE TVL 25 N SAC 55 E UKI EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 35 NNW LFK SHV MLU LUL DHN 30 NE MGR 45 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE 63S 40 SW 63S OLM 10 W HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HUL 25 W 3B1 20 N MPV 10 N ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...NEB TO NRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CONUS -- EXCEPT W COAST STATES AND MIDWEST -- WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM NM ENEWD TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY OFFSHORE CENTRAL/NRN CA THROUGH PERIOD...WITH EWD/SHOREWARD TURN POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GEN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS NRN CA AND NV...MAINLY LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS NV/UT -- IS REASONABLY PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL 00Z ETA/NGM AND MANY 21Z SREFX MEMBERS TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES TO VICINITY WRN NEB/NWRN KS BY 25/00Z. SPECTRAL MODEL IS MORE NEBULOUS WITH THIS FEATURE AND ACCORDINGLY HAS WEAKER MIDLEVEL UVV AND PRECIP RESPONSE ALONG/N OF SFC FRONT DURING AFTERNOON. SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NRN MB/SK -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD SLOWLY OVER MI/WI/IA...DECELERATING TO QUASISTATIONARY OVER PORTIONS NEB AND NERN CO. ...CENTRAL/ERN NEB TO NRN LOWER MI... STRONG SFC DIABATIC HEATING ALONG AND JUST N OF FRONT SHOULD OFFSET WEAK POSTFRONTAL CAA...AND COMBINE WITH FRONTAL ASCENT...TO DEVELOP STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL NEB TO WRN IA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LATE DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE IN FRONTAL ZONE EWD TOWARD NRN LOWER MI. DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT TOWARD LM. ALTHOUGH ONLY 25-30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED DURING PROBABLE 24/21Z-25/00Z INITIATION WINDOW...MAJORITY OF CONTRIBUTION TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL COME FROM ELY FLOW COMPONENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER...N OF SFC FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE A CORRIDOR N OF FRONT WHERE LIFTED PARCELS ARE SFC-BASED...AND/OR EFFECTIVE LAYER PARCELS EXTEND DOWNWARD TO SFC. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN THAT REGIME SUPPORT PRE-STORM MLCAPES 2500-4000 J/KG...DECREASING WITH NWD EXTENT FROM SFC BOUNDARY. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS/FOOTHILLS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN POSTFRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...FROM WRN MT TO NERN CO. MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE -- FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS -- WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WY ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN MT. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STRONG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN CINH DURING AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN CONVECTION THAT SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD BEFORE ITS NOCTURNAL DISSIPATION. DEEP SUBCLOUD/MIXED LAYERS AND LARGE SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF LARGE HAIL/WIND GENERATED ALOFT. ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 15:50:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 10:50:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506241602.j5OG1w9t032042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241558 SWODY1 SPC AC 241556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MKG MLI LWD CNK 30 SSE HLC 40 WNW GCK LAA PUB FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM BZN BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS REJ 35 WNW PHP 9V9 15 E MKT 30 NW ESC 55 E MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 SW LFK 35 SSE GGG 55 WSW MLU 25 SW 0A8 15 W MCN 40 SE AGS 35 S EWN ...CONT... 15 WSW CLE 20 SE CMH 45 WNW LOZ 25 E PAH 25 W CGI 20 NNW UIN 30 SSE P35 25 S TCC 15 W TCS 30 SSE DMN ...CONT... 50 WNW MRF 40 ESE GDP 15 SSW INK 35 NE FST 20 S P07 ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 25 S GBN 50 WNW GBN 25 WNW IPL 40 NNE SAN 25 NE OXR 30 E MER RBL 35 E ACV 35 E 4BK 30 SSE RDM 25 NNE BKE 40 S S80 60 NE S80 10 SSE S06 GEG 20 SW EAT 20 SSW HQM ...CONT... 60 NNW MOT 40 WSW BIS 15 NE PIR 20 SE ATY 30 NE MQT ...CONT... 20 NNW EPM 35 N AUG 20 ENE MPV 10 N ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN MT.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SYSTEM SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN EXTENDING WSWWD TO ALONG SRN MN/IA BORDER THEN WWD VICINITY SD/NE BORDER. UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA LATE TONIGHT WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS ENEWD FROM SWRN U.S. ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO THE NERN COAST. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SWD AS FAR AS CENTRAL NEB INTO ECENTRAL CO. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... AHEAD OF COLD FRONT A VERY WARM AND MOIST WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS EWD ACROSS WI AND MI THIS AM. OVERNIGHT SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN WI ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG POLAR JET ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON EWD FROM CURRENT WI ACTIVITY AS STRONG HEATING WEAKENS CAP AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE DEVELOPING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TO MS VALLEY... SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN IA WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILES IN BOUNDARY LAYER VICINITY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30KT. MCS WILL THEN TRACK ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARIES TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPSLOPE FLOW N OF CURRENT BOUNDARIES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM ERN CO NWD INTO ERN WY/SERN MT. THE 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW MT/NRN WY DECREASES TO AROUND 20KT NERN CO. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON SERN MT THRU ERN WY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH BASED STORMS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT RATHER LOW. FURTHER S INTO CO...SHEAR IS WEAKER AND MORE MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF HIGH TERRAIN INTO PLAINS DURING AFTERNOON. STILL A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 19:31:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 14:31:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506241943.j5OJhTMP001557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241941 SWODY1 SPC AC 241940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE APN 30 NNW MKG 40 NNW BRL LWD 45 WSW HLC 30 SE LIC 25 SSW FCL 25 S CPR 25 SE COD 35 ENE DLN 15 NNE BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS 10 SE REJ 15 WNW PHP 9V9 30 ENE FSD 25 E MKT 60 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB 20 E MPV 10 N ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 SW LFK 35 SSE GGG 55 WSW MLU 25 SW 0A8 10 WSW MCN 25 SSE CAE 20 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 ESE GDP 15 SSW INK 35 NE FST 20 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW MOT 40 WSW BIS 40 N PIR 30 NW HON 50 NE BKX 25 WNW MSP 55 NNE MQT ...CONT... 40 SE DTW 40 NE DAY 15 N SDF 30 ENE MDH 30 NE COU 35 NNW SZL 25 ENE HUT 20 ENE TCC 35 SE TCS 40 SSW DMN ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 25 S GBN 45 WNW GBN 50 W EED 10 SSW DAG 40 SE FAT 35 N FAT RBL 35 E ACV 35 E 4BK 30 SSE RDM 25 NNE BKE 40 S S80 60 NE S80 10 SSE S06 GEG 20 SW EAT 20 SSW HQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN WSWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE NEB ENEWD ACROSS IA INTO WI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER MOST OF IA. THIS AREA APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO SEVERE MULTICELLS MAY OCCUR BY EVENING DUE TO THE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND CONGEALING DOWNDRAFTS/MCS FORMATION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST IN THE LOW-LEVELS SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALSO MAY KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH A DECREASING THREAT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY FINALLY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDS NWWD FROM WRN NEB ACROSS ERN WY INTO SE MT. AS THE MTN CONVECTION MOVES GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 01:10:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 20:10:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506250121.j5P1LVhW018931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250118 SWODY1 SPC AC 250117 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0817 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DTW 50 SE FWA SDF 50 SE BNA RMG AHN FLO CRE ...CONT... 20 ESE OSC 15 E MKG 10 SW RFD LWD 10 NNE RSL 20 SSW LAA 20 S LAR 50 SSE CPR 55 NNW RWL 35 ENE DLN 15 NNE BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT 40 NNE 4BQ Y22 10 NE PHP 45 SW 9V9 10 SW YKN 30 W LSE 20 N PLN ...CONT... GLS HOU 45 NE CLL 30 SSE TYR ELD PBF POF 40 W STL 55 NNE SZL FLV 60 S LBL CVS 55 WSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW TUS GBN EED DAG RBL 50 E CEC MFR BKE S80 MSO 30 NNW GTF 40 SW GGW SDY 40 WSW BIS MBG MHE OTG FRM 45 NNE GRB ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB MPV MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE WILL REMAIN STRONG RIDGING FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY...ERN/CENTRAL LOW PLAINS...TO NWRN MEX. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER NRN MB/ONT BORDER REGION IS FCST TO REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY...WITH INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CENTRAL CA COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE IN PERIOD...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN SOME NOCTURNAL GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL IN SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN REGIONS. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SAULT REGION OF MI/ONT...SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY SWWD OVER S-CENTRAL NEB AND E-CENTRAL CO. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI... SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG AND BEHIND SFC FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. DVN/APN RAOBS AND INTERMEDIATE RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYERS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GREATLY HINDER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT ALONG FRONT...AND BUOYANCY DECREASES. REF SPC WWS 518/519 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM SITUATION. ...SRN/ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA... GREATEST COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH POST-FRONTAL DEW POINTS IN 70S F AND ELY FLOW ENLARGING 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES APPROXIMATELY 3000 J/KG AND 0-3 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG N OF FRONT... PER 00Z OAX RAOB AND NEARBY RUC SOUNDINGS IN IA AND ERN NEB. DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC SUPPORT IS MORE MARGINAL...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND AFFECTIVE SHEARS ROUGHLY 40 KT. STILL...THIS PROFILE FAVORS SUPERCELLS WITH TENDENCY TOWARD HEAVY PRECIP MODE... AND CLUSTERING/MERGERS LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL BOWS WITH TIME. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR IS CAPPING...THOUGH FRONTAL FORCING STILL MAY RESULT IN REMOVAL OF VERY SMALL CINH EVIDENT IN OAX SOUNDING. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THIS CORRIDOR...INCLUDING POSSIBLE BACKBUILDING FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA ACTIVITY...MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL...BY CONTRAST...IS STRONGLY CONDITIONAL...MARGINAL AND TIED LARGELY TO STORM-SCALE PROCESSES. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT MOVING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN MT SEWD ACROSS WY AND WRN NEB...TO ERN CO/NERN KS. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT SUPPORTS SUPERCELL MODE OVER CORRIDOR BETWEEN SNY-BIL...WHILE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S. REF WWS 517/520 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FARTHER E AND WITH TIME...AS NEAR-SFC LAYER STABILIZES...AND INFLOW BECOMES MORE ELEVATED WITH LOWER THETAE. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT OVER LAURENTIAN PLATEAU OF QUE MAY BE SUSTAINED AS IT MOVES ESEWD TOWARD NRN MAINE...AND PERHAPS NRN VT/NH...BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION EVIDENT JUST TO ITS S AND PROGGED TO EXTEND SEWD OVERNIGHT. DIABATICALLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS AT SFC BY THE TIME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE OVER AREA...AFTER ABOUT 08Z. HOWEVER...PROGS OF 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR/BOW STRUCTURES AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 05:38:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 00:38:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506250549.j5P5na9j018198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250547 SWODY1 SPC AC 250545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI MLD 25 ESE OGD PUC 40 WSW 4HV 15 SSW MLF 60 ENE ELY 50 SSE EKO 40 N U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY 50 SE BOI BYI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL DVL 45 WNW ABR 9V9 BBW 30 WNW HLC 35 SW GLD LIC CYS GCC 60 SW MLS 35 NW BIL BZN HLN 35 NW GTF 40 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW RRT 35 ENE BJI DLH 25 S MQT 20 NNE TVC 30 N MBS 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSE BOS 10 SSE ABE 15 N CHO 30 SSE PSK 35 SSE TRI 30 SW HKY 35 W SOP 25 NE FAY 30 E GSB 30 NE ECG ...CONT... 75 W COT 15 NW COT 25 N AUS 25 S FTW 40 E OKC 20 NNE BVO 45 E ICT ICT 30 WNW P28 30 E AMA 35 E CNM 55 WNW MRF ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 NW TUS 30 ESE PHX 60 WNW PHX 20 E EED 20 SSW LAS 30 NNW LAS 30 NW P38 30 SE ELY 40 W ELY 45 N TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 NE MER 35 E SCK 15 W UKI 60 SSE EKA 20 NE ACV EUG 25 SSE SLE 40 SE SLE 25 SE RDM 55 N BNO 15 ESE PUW 20 ESE GEG 25 NW GEG 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS GREAT BASIN REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGING FROM NWRN MEX ACROSS S-CENTRAL CONUS TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG S-CENTRAL CA COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE START OF PERIOD AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD UT. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...THOUGH...AS SYSTEM BECOMES POSITIVELY-TILTED/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. MEANWHILE....SFC FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LH WSWWD ACROSS IA/NEB AND ERN CO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUE/ONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER OH/INDIANA/IL...AND LIFTING NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM SERN MT/NWRN WY AREA SFC LOW SSEWD OVER ERN CO. ...NRN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION FROM SFC LOW SWD INVOF LEE TROUGH...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH SUPERCELLS MORE PROBABLE FROM ERN WY/WRN NEB NWD AND MULTICELLS PREDOMINATING FARTHER S. DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ACROSS ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA -- 8-9 DEG C/KM. 50S/60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG...SOMEWHAT GREATER OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS WHERE HIGH DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY. TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS WRN ND AND CENTRAL/WRN MT...IN NRN SEMICIRCLE OF SFC CYCLONE. IN THAT REGIME...BACKED SFC FLOW WILL BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE AND ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...ENHANCING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL RELATIVE TO AREAS FATHER S. GIVEN THIS FACTOR AND POSSIBILITY OF LOWER LCL RESULTING FROM SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR LARGEST IN THIS REGION. MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OVER ND WHERE 40-50 KT NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP...E OF LEE-SIDE CYCLONE. ...GREAT BASIN... VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT DAY...COINCIDING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING CINH AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC...WITH SMALL BUT LONG-TRACK BOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS BASIN AND RANGE COUNTRY. ...MID ATLANTIC TO MID MS VALLEY... WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE IN 100-200 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CLOSELY CORRESPONDING TO FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND OVERCOME WEAK MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYERS...TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE WEAK NEAR FRONT...LIMITING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND AREA ALSO WILL BE LOCATED S OF IDEAL MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELDS. THEREFORE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE FROM MS VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC ALONG YET UNDEVELOPED...SMALL SCALE FOCI WITHIN FRONTAL BELT. SUCH PROCESSES COULD CONCENTRATE SEVERE POTENTIAL ENOUGH SUBREGIONALLY TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE PICKING SUCH AN AREA ATTM. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 12:38:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 07:38:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506251250.j5PCo56v023366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251247 SWODY1 SPC AC 251246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 45 E BIS 10 WNW HON SPW DSM BIE 35 S MCK 35 NNE EHA 45 SSW LAA COS CYS SHR 40 S BIL WEY 45 W BPI 40 E PUC 50 WSW 4HV MLF 45 NE ELY 50 SSE EKO 40 N U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY BOI 55 SSW MSO GTF 40 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W COT 15 NW COT 25 N AUS 25 S FTW 40 E OKC 20 NNE BVO 45 E ICT ICT 30 WNW P28 30 E AMA 35 E CNM 55 WNW MRF ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 NW TUS 30 ESE PHX 60 WNW PHX 35 SSE EED 20 SSW LAS 30 NNW LAS 30 NW P38 30 SE ELY 40 W ELY 45 N TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 NE MER 35 E SCK 15 W UKI 60 SSE EKA 20 NE ACV EUG 25 SSE SLE 40 SE SLE 25 SE RDM 55 N BNO 15 ESE PUW 20 ESE GEG 25 NW GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 40 ESE RRT 35 ENE BJI 55 SSW IWD 40 S IMT 30 NW TVC 20 E HTL 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSE BOS 10 SSE ABE 15 N CHO 30 SSE PSK 35 SSE TRI 30 SW HKY 35 W SOP 25 NE FAY 30 E GSB 30 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...ERN MT/DAKOTAS... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO NORTHEAST MT BY THIS EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT OVER EASTERN MT...SPREADING INTO WESTERN ND DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. ...NV/UT... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NV/UT TODAY. A DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NV/UT AHEAD OF SYSTEM...WHERE COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. ...ID/MT... STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN ID/SOUTHWEST MT BY EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND TERRAIN SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THESE REGIONS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...SD/WY/CO/WRN NEB/WRN KS... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WY/CO...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB/WESTERN KS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. ...ERN NEB/SRN SD/WESTERN IA... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEB. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER. STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF FEATURE WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 16:13:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 11:13:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506251625.j5PGPPgO017040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251609 SWODY1 SPC AC 251608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 45 E BIS 10 WNW HON SPW DSM BIE 35 S MCK 35 NNE EHA 45 SSW LAA COS CYS SHR 40 S BIL WEY 45 W BPI 40 E PUC 50 WSW 4HV MLF 45 NE ELY 50 SSE EKO 40 N U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY BOI 55 SSW MSO GTF 40 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E EWB 25 S ABE 30 ESE MGW 10 SSW CRW 40 E TRI 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI 30 NE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW ELO 20 SSW IMT 55 N MTC ...CONT... 65 W COT 25 NNW SAT 15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 20 WSW OKC 40 ESE END 15 NNE SGF 40 ESE SZL 25 ESE OJC 30 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE HOB 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 75 S GBN 10 SSW GBN 45 WNW GBN 35 E BLH 25 SE EED 55 ENE LAS 25 SSW P38 50 WNW P38 30 ESE TPH 40 SSW TPH 55 S BIH 45 ESE FAT 40 E SCK 35 E RBL 20 SW RBL 30 E UKI UKI 30 SE EKA 40 NE ACV 25 WSW MFR 30 NNE MFR 55 S RDM 45 ESE RDM BKE 15 ESE PUW 20 ESE GEG 25 NW GEG 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SRN ROCKIES ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. TO EASTERN SEABOARD. CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OFFSHORE CA HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND CURRENTLY TRACKING NEWD ACROSS SRN SIERRAS INTO NV...WHILE NRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM SRN BC INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD INTO NERN U.S. CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM VICINITY ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS SRN MI/WI THEN WWD ACROSS SRN SD. PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL RETURN NWD AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN LEE OF NRN ROCKIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE S/WV TROUGHS FROM THE W. S OF FRONT A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS PREVAILS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE E COAST. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... HAVE INCREASED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND AND HAIL FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN ND AS A STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MT WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH FULL HEATING... THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE MUCH OF ERN MT WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG OR GREATER. AS S/WV MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM SRN B.C. THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO 40-50 KT WHICH COUPLED WITH UP TO 30KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CREATES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM POTENTIAL FOR BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN ND. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... THE BAND OF 50-60KT 500 MB WINDS ROTATING ACROSS UT INTO SERN ID/WRN WY AS TROUGH OVER SRN SIERRAS LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NV THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES PROVIDES ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...PARTICULARLY OVER NV...HOWEVER MID LEVEL CONVECTION ONGOING SWRN UT SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON NWD ACROSS NRN UT INTO SRN ID AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH. WITH THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM THE HIGH BASED STORMS COUPLED WITH THE 40-50KT OF SHEAR...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH MANY OF THE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO MID MS VALLEY... WHILE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MDTLY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE S OF FRONTAL ZONE....THE LACK OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN WY/CO INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER E THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY BOTH EXISTING CLOUDINESS REDUCING SURFACE HEATING AND THE WEAKER SHEAR. MULTICELLULAR STORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY NEAR PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES INCLUDING THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AREAS WHERE HEATING CAN REDUCE CIN. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN MUCH OF THIS AREA. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 19:42:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 14:42:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506251954.j5PJs3cD009305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251951 SWODY1 SPC AC 251950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 40 E BIS 30 SSE ABR 20 ENE BKX 25 NNW FRM 15 NW MCW 35 E FOD 45 SSW FOD 30 E GRI 40 W HLC 25 ESE LAA 15 SW LHX 25 N COS 25 NW CYS 55 SSE CPR 25 N RWL 40 E RKS 30 ENE 4BL 40 SE U17 45 W PGA 60 NNE P38 10 S EKO 60 NW OWY 45 NNW BOI 25 NNE 3DU 30 N HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 25 NNW SAT 15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 25 WSW OKC 40 S PNC 15 NNW UMN 35 NNE SGF 35 SSE SZL 20 SE OJC 25 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE HOB 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 70 WSW PRC 30 SSW SGU 70 SSW ELY 35 N TPH 45 NNE BIH 55 S BIH 40 SSE FAT 50 NNE SAC 50 SSE RBL 45 ESE UKI 15 S UKI 55 SE EKA 40 E OTH 35 ENE EUG 25 W RDM 65 S RDM 45 N 4LW 15 NE BNO 40 N BKE 25 NW GEG 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 30 NNW ELO 40 NNW IWD 25 SSW IMT 35 WSW HTL 55 N MTC ...CONT... 20 E EWB 25 S ABE 30 ESE MGW 10 SSW CRW 40 E TRI 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI 30 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD OVER NRN MT. THE PLUME IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ECNTRL AND NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN SD EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ERN MT AND WRN ND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THIS AXIS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS SUPERCELLS IN ERN MT DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN WRN SD. STORM MOTIONS OF ABOUT 40 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS...MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH OVER CA/NV WITH THE RUC SHOWING STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD INTO UT. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SRN ID WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND SRN WY. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE WEST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS...THE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 01:04:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 20:04:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506260115.j5Q1FZxC029511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260112 SWODY1 SPC AC 260111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 50 ENE BIS 35 S ABR 25 ENE BKX 25 NNW FRM 20 WNW MCW 30 NNW DSM 35 SSE OMA 30 ESE GRI 30 E MCK 30 E LAA 15 SW LHX 25 N COS 20 ENE LAR 45 S CPR 30 NNW RWL 40 E RKS 55 WSW MTJ 35 NE BCE 40 SSW MLD TWF 10 NE OWY 45 NNW WMC 70 S BNO 30 NW BZN 15 SE GTF 65 W GGW 60 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 25 NNW SAT 15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 40 NE ADM 30 SW TUL 15 NNW UMN 35 NNE SGF 35 SSE SZL 20 SE OJC 25 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE HOB 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 50 WNW SAD 60 SSE IGM 55 NW P38 10 NE TPH 45 WSW TPH 55 S BIH 40 SSE FAT 50 NNE SAC 50 SSE RBL 45 ESE UKI 15 S UKI 55 SE EKA 40 E OTH 35 ENE EUG 25 W RDM 65 S RDM 45 N 4LW 15 NE BNO 40 N BKE 25 NW GEG 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 W RRT 45 ESE BJI 25 SSW IMT 30 NNW HTL OSC ...CONT... 20 SE BOS 10 NE MSV 40 E PSB 45 NNE BWG CSV 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI 30 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WWD TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA...WILL TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. BAND OF MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN CANADA WHILE A SSELY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS FROM ERN MT/WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MT REACHING ERN MT BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR SHR MOVES TOWARD NWRN SD. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN DAKOTAS ATOP NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM ERN MT/WRN ND TO NEB WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA TROUGH AND WAA INCREASING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH CAPE/EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES RESULTING IN SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA... A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN SD SEWD TO NRN NEB AND CENTRAL IA WILL REMAIN THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...WITH MODERATE MUCAPES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THIS REGION REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...NOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PER WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NEB/SD FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF HAIL/STRONG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER NV IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY SOME AS IT TRACKS TOWARD ERN ID/ERN UT TONIGHT. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PER REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO IA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL BEING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM IA INTO PARTS OF SRN MN/ SWRN WI. FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...REFER TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION FROM HPC. FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 06:04:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 01:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506260616.j5Q6GMP1032199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260614 SWODY1 SPC AC 260613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX 60 WSW IWD 20 WSW EAU 25 SE RST 25 SW FSD 20 E ANW 15 E LBF 25 ENE GLD 30 ENE LIC 15 NE CYS 35 SE DGW 45 NNE CPR 20 E WEY 15 WNW LVM 65 ENE BIL 45 NNW MLS 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO 10 ESE AUS 35 SSE FTW 30 ENE HUT 35 NW HUT 40 ESE DDC 20 NNE GAG 40 NNE CDS 45 NNE BGS 45 SW MRF ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 35 WNW SVC 60 E SOW 30 ENE INW 10 NNW FLG 30 NNW GCN 25 N U17 50 NW GJT 15 SW RKS 25 NNE EVW 30 ESE ENV 55 E U31 20 NE U31 35 WNW WMC 60 NNE SVE 50 SW MHS 35 SSW MFR 20 N RDM 30 NNW PDT 40 SSW GEG 45 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 50 W EAT 50 SSE BLI 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE CTB 25 SE HVR 65 W GGW 25 N GGW 55 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW BUF 20 SW UCA 35 NNW PBG ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 60 WNW HUL HUL ...CONT... 15 SSW JFK 30 NE HGR 15 ESE MGW 45 SSE PKB 20 NNW SSU 25 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD TO PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE NRN BC COAST DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE EJECTION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO ERN MT/WY BY 27/00Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE EAST...26/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SERN STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK W/NW TOWARD ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND THE OH VALLEY TODAY. ...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN SD IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE EWD TOWARD ABR AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A SSWLY LLJ AS IT REDEVELOPS NWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SPREADING NWD. THE SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL ND BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN/WI AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEPARATE LOW LEVEL JETS NOSING INTO THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NNEWD AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ND/SD TO SRN MN. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATOP A MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN MN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT/WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SD SURFACE LOW AS UVVS INCREASE OVER THIS AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS FROM INITIALLY ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY AND THE DAKOTAS BEFORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS E AND NE. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL THE GREATEST. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. ...FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SWWD TO ERN CO/NM. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASING WITH SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN NEB TO PARTS OF ERN CO...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXTENDING WWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT UVVS WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO WRN ID/SERN ORE. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MAINLY SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO SERN NY/NERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 12:20:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 07:20:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506261231.j5QCVTQW009348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261229 SWODY1 SPC AC 261227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 35 WSW STC HON PHP Y22 JMS FAR BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX IWD EAU RST FSD ANW LBF GLD LIC CYS DGW 45 NNE CPR 25 E WEY 10 N LVM 65 ENE BIL OLF 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 60 WNW HUL HUL ...CONT... 15 SSW JFK 30 NE HGR 15 ESE MGW 45 SSE PKB 20 NNW SSU 25 NE SBY ...CONT... 10 NNW BUF 20 SW UCA 35 NNW PBG ...CONT... 50 NE CTB 25 SE HVR 65 W GGW 25 N GGW 55 N OLF ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 35 WNW SVC 60 E SOW 30 ENE INW 10 NNW FLG 20 NNE GCN 15 ENE U17 45 WNW GJT 40 SW RKS 10 NNW EVW 50 NNW BIH 45 E FAT 45 SSW TVL 20 ESE SVE 50 NNE RBL 50 SW MHS 35 SSW MFR 70 NNW BNO 15 NNE PDT 50 WNW PUW 45 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 50 W EAT 50 SSE BLI 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO 10 ESE AUS 35 SSE FTW 30 ENE HUT 35 NW HUT 40 ESE DDC 20 NNE GAG 40 NNE CDS 45 NNE BGS 45 SW MRF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...AND WESTERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM UT/AZ INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN UT WILL MOVE ACROSS WY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN. ...ND/SD/MN... MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING MCS OVER EASTERN ND. THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST SD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MN. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL SD. VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. WEAK CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS NEAR SURFACE LOW...AND EXPAND EASTWARD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN MN. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF LOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH AN EVOLUTION INTO A FAST MOVING MCS. ...MT/WY... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTHEAST WY TODAY...LEADING TO AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. NORTHERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NEB/CO... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEB/KS DURING THE EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...WRN MT/SRN ID... POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ID BY THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ...NEW ENGLAND... HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...BUT WEAK LOW/DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL PA INTO MAINE...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LACK OF SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 16:16:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 11:16:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506261627.j5QGRrQh007802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261614 SWODY1 SPC AC 261612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 15 SSW STC 20 ESE PIR 55 NW PHP 35 SSW DIK 30 NW JMS 50 WSW BJI BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX IWD EAU RST FSD ANW LBF 50 WNW GCK 25 N LAA 15 ESE CYS DGW 45 NNE CPR 25 E WEY 10 N LVM 65 ENE BIL 30 SE OLF 70 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EWB 20 N GON 15 SSE POU 20 SE MSV 35 WSW ALB 20 SE GFL 20 W LCI 10 NNE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 HUL ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 50 ENE LUK 40 SSW LUK 20 WNW LOZ 30 WSW BLF 15 SE SBY ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO 45 ENE ACT 30 E LWD 30 SE OMA 25 N GAG 20 S LBB 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 40 ESE SOW 30 WSW GJT 45 ESE SLC 55 SSW ELY 30 NW U31 40 W WMC 40 N SVE 30 NNE LMT 30 NW BNO 40 NW BKE 45 SW GEG 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 WSW HVR 70 SE HVR 60 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SD...ND AND WESTERN MN..... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY TROUGH REMAINS OVER WRN U.S. WITH A SWLY FLOW EXTENDING EWD FROM ROCKIES TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S/W TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN W/V IMAGERY CURRENTLY SRN WY/WRN CO WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ALONG B.C. COAST TO MAINTAIN COOL TROUGHINESS OVER NWRN STATES. SURFACE FRONT HAS SAGGED SWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN EXTENDS WWD AS A QUASISTATIONARY FEATURE ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SD. ...DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA... WITH APPROACH OF THE S/WV CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A SLY/SELY FLOW OF VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF DAKOTAS. A DRIER SWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN SD/WRN NE WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VICINITY THE E/W BOUNDARY THAT IS JUST S OF ND/SD BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE N DURING AFTERNOON AS SLY WINDS INCREASE WITH THE DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW. VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN VICINITY AND S OF BOUNDARY AND E OF SURFACE LOW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH INCREASES TO 40-50 KT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCLS VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY MDT SHEAR AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWD VICINITY DEVELOPING N/S DRY LINE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW SWD INTO WRN NEB. BY EVENING A SEVERE MCS SHOULD EVOLVE AND CONTINUE NEWD INTO MN E FEEDING OFF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS MOVES ACROSS NRN MN. ...MT/WY... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND NLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO W OF SD SURFACE LOW WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE SWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NEB/CO... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE IMMEDIATELY E OF FRONT RANGE WILL CONFINE THREAT TO ISOLATED SEVERE FROM HIGH BASED STORMS...HOWEVER FURTHER E INTO HIGH PLAINS...DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A GREATER NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO S OF E/W FRONTAL BAND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH MLCAPES RISING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH MID 90S. PULSE SEVERE IS LIKELY WITH PRIMARILY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS THE EXPECTED THREAT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY AND ALSO VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM THE COOL ATLANTIC WATERS. ...WRN MT/SRN ID... WITH A COOL/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING AFTERNOON. PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. RELATIVE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 19:50:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 14:50:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506262002.j5QK24Xr001324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261959 SWODY1 SPC AC 261958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HON 35 NE PHP 60 NNE RAP 30 WNW Y22 25 ESE DIK 10 SSW TVF 50 ENE BJI 40 W DLH 35 ENE STC 30 N RWF HON. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW CMX 35 SW IWD EAU 35 W RST 15 SW OTG 50 NNE BUB 20 E LBF 25 SE GLD 25 ENE LAA 20 E LHX 35 SSE LIC 10 NNW DGW 55 SW GCC 10 E WEY 15 SSW BZN 45 NNE BZN 55 ESE LWT 35 SE OLF 55 NNW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW HYA 25 W BDR 35 S MSV 25 SE BGM 35 SE UCA 10 SSW RUT 10 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 30 SSE SAT 45 NE ACT 15 WSW IRK 30 SE DSM 50 W DSM 20 NE LNK 15 NW CNK 30 N GAG 20 S LBB 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 15 ENE FMN 30 NNW GJT 60 N PUC 45 SW DPG 25 NE U31 40 SE 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 10 SW ALW 40 NE EPH 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 WSW HVR 70 SE HVR 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 HUL ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 45 ENE LUK 45 NNW LEX 35 WSW LEX 25 WNW LOZ 30 WSW BLF 30 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WY MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD ACROSS NRN SD INTO SCNTRL MN. CONVECTION IS ONGOING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN MN WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN NRN SD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN ND...MOST OF SD AND THE SWRN HALF OF MN WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER ERN SD AND SE ND. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. WINDS ARE BACKED NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD HELP STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT. A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN FROM SW TO NE...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH FAST MOVING CELLS. MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MN...SRN ND AND NRN SD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN MCS EVENTUALLY FORMING OVER SRN ND AND TRACKING EWD INTO WRN MN OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ...HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY DROP OFF TOWARD LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES/GREAT LAKES... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM LOWER MI ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NEW ENGLAND. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS HELPING STORMS INITIATE ACROSS LOWER MI...NRN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ESPECIALLY OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 06:04:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 01:04:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506270615.j5R6Fl22001783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270613 SWODY1 SPC AC 270612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MQT 30 NNE VOK 40 W JVL 35 SSE MLI 25 SSW UIN 25 NNE SZL 25 S TOP 25 N MCK BFF 50 NNW DGW COD 25 S BZN 30 ESE 3DU 60 NE MSO 40 SSW CTB 25 WSW HVR 35 NNW MLS 45 WNW PIR 50 WNW HON 65 ENE ABR 20 NNE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 45 W NIR 40 ESE AUS 40 W MKO 40 ESE ICT 30 SE RSL 30 WNW CDS 20 ESE INK MRF 60 SW MRF ...CONT... 55 SE ELP 15 S ALM 20 SSW 4CR 25 S TCC 40 NE CAO 40 N LAA 35 WSW AKO 10 SW FCL 30 SSW LAR 20 WNW LAR 35 N RWL 35 SW LND 25 W MLD 55 NE 4LW 55 SSE RDM 45 W PDT 10 SW EPH 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 40 W MOT 55 ENE MOT 35 N DVL 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 30 SSE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD TO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NWWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PAC NW TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A BAND OF 35-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER WRN NEB...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN...WILL TRACK EWD REACHING SD/NEB BY 00Z AND THEN INTO SRN MN/IA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NRN MN SWWD TO SERN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...AND THEN NWWD TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN MT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SWWD FROM TRIPLE POINT OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MN/WI TO PARTS OF MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AND WWD ACROSS SD/NEB... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ND. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MO VALLEY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG/ EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SD/NEB MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAKER INSTABILITY INTO PARTS OF MN...BUT AS STATED...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHS MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVER SD/NEB IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER MN/SERN SD BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WWD ACROSS SD/NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BECOME LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB AND NWRN IA. 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ NOSING INTO NWRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. 27/00Z NAM AND 26/21Z NAMKF SUPPORT THE UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF THIS LATTER AREA OF SUPERCELL STORMS INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND ERN NEB. IF THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK. ...MT/NRN WY... RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO MT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING OVER THIS REGION WITH THE PAC NW TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND SEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...WRN KS TO WRN TX/SERN NM... LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ATOP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN KS SWWD TO SERN NM AND WRN TX. IF STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT SUGGEST HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES TODAY...WITH IT TRACKING NNEWD ACROSS THE LOWER TN VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION BY PEAK HEATING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -8 C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 11:59:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 06:59:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506271210.j5RCAuhW012864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271208 SWODY1 SPC AC 271207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF BFF SHR 25 N WEY 3DU 50 NNW FCA 60 ENE CTB HVR 40 NNW MLS Y22 ABR BJI INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 30 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ISN 35 WNW P24 35 WSW DVL 10 N DVL 80 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 15 S ALM 20 SSW 4CR 25 S TCC 40 NE CAO 40 N LAA 35 WSW AKO 10 SW FCL 30 SSW LAR 20 WNW LAR 35 N RWL 35 SW LND 25 W MLD 60 NE 4LW 10 NNW 4LW 40 NNE LMT 50 W PDT 20 NNE EPH 65 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 20 SSW CLL 40 W MKO 40 ESE ICT 30 SE RSL 30 WNW CDS 20 ESE INK 30 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT/WY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...WI/MI... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST FEATURE IS WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEB. THIS VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MN/WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WI...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...MN/SD/IA/NEB... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN/EASTERN SD BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON DEVELOPING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MN/SD. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN THIS REGION WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. OTHER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY LATE EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA. ...MT/WY... SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY FROM WESTERN SD ACROSS SOUTHERN MT. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ID/ORE... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ORE AND ID TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ORE/CENTRAL ID. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS IN THIS REGION. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. ...MID MS AND TN VALLEY... WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM MO/AR ACROSS KY/TN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 16:18:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 11:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506271630.j5RGUIRB008267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271617 SWODY1 SPC AC 271615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF BFF SHR 25 N WEY 3DU 50 NNW FCA 60 ENE CTB HVR 40 NNW MLS Y22 ABR BJI INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 35 ENE DMN 35 WNW SVC 45 ESE SOW 45 SSW GNT 20 NW 4CR 45 WSW CAO 20 ESE LAA 20 SW GLD 45 S DGW 20 NW CPR 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW OWY 35 E BNO 35 WSW S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNE ISN 20 SSW MOT 45 SSW DVL 15 SW GFK 45 W RRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 25 W LFK 15 N UMN 10 NW CNU 50 WSW P28 55 N CDS 20 ENE MAF 15 SSE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW WITH A SWLY FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAYS S/WV TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE PLAINS CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. RIDGE BUILDS INTO SRN ROCKIES NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF BOTH THE S/WV IMPULSE MOVING THRU PAC NW AND UPPER LOW IN SRN BRANCH APPROACHING CENTRAL CA COAST TONIGHT. WHILE A WARM UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ERN U.S...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD THRU TN VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. ALSO A WARM CORE LOW DELMARVA ALSO MOVES SLOWLY N INTO SRN NY BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A LOW CURRENTLY SWRN ONTARIO IS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING S/WV AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EWD EXTENDING BY THIS EVENING FROM WRN LS SWWD INTO ERN NEB. STRONG 40KT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY AHEAD OF FRONT INTO WRN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING AFTERNOON AS SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS DEPART U.S. HOWEVER IN PLACE IS A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... MORNING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD THIN AND ALLOW STRONG HEATING. WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F AND TEMPERATURES BY MID AFTERNOON RANGING UPWARDS FROM THE 80S TO LOW 90S...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/K COMMON. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 25-30KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM NERN NEB TO SRN MN WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT REMAINING ISOLATED GIVEN THE MARGINAL AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S BY EVENING... MAINTAINING AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS IA AND WI. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS WWD ACROSS MT... A MOIST ELY/NELY FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WWD ACROSS MT THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WITH HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG COMMON. 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MT AHEAD OF NW U.S. TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY...THEN MOVING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW LCLS. ...TN VALLEY... A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING NWD THRU TN VALLEY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOON AFTER SUNSET. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO SRN ROCKIES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ON WRN EDGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WRN KS TO SWRN TX. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W WITH UP TO 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING VICINITY LEE SURFACE TROUGH. BY MID AFTERNOON THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN KS SSWWD TO VICINITY SERN NM/TX BORDER. ..NEW ENGLAND... REF MCD 1498 AGAIN TODAY A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NERN U.S. AND HAS SPREAD A LITTLE NWD INTO NRN VT/NH. UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THE SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLY GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 20:01:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 15:01:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506272013.j5RKDE62023556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272009 SWODY1 SPC AC 272007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF 25 ESE BFF 10 SSE SHR 20 NNE WEY 3DU 50 NNW FCA 65 ENE CTB 65 SSW GGW 60 WSW DIK 10 WNW ATY 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 30 WNW LFK 20 NNW MLC 20 SSE CNU 40 WSW HUT 50 N CDS 20 ENE MAF 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP 35 ENE DMN 35 WNW SVC 45 ESE SOW 45 SSW GNT 20 NW 4CR 15 SE TAD 20 SW GLD 45 S DGW 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW OWY 35 E BNO 35 WSW S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNE ISN 20 SSW MOT 45 SSW DVL 15 SW GFK 45 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT SEWD INTO THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS / MID MO VALLEYS WNWWD INTO MT... BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN MN ATTM...WITH STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING FURTHER S INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MEAN-LAYER CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG/ IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGEST WIND FIELD -- AND THUS GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF MN INTO NWRN WI. WEAKER -- BUT STILL SUFFICIENT -- SHEAR FURTHER S SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WITH WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO MT / ERN WY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...EXPECT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL TO INCREASE WITH TIME. OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP / MOVE EWD ACROSS SD / NEB AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ...MID MS / LOWER OH / TN VALLEYS... MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION DUE TO MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER POCKET OF MID-LEVEL AIR INVOF UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WRN TN ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INVOF THIS FEATURE...AND WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. ADDITIONALLY...MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM PULSE. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... MARGINAL / HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED INVOF LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM ATTM. UPSLOPE / SELY FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX INTO SERN NM HAS SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...GUSTY / DRY MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL. ...NEW ENGLAND... MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH REGION OF 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO VT / WRN NH. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK SUGGESTING LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION...A COUPLE STRONGER / PULSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ..GOSS.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:56:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:56:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506280107.j5S17Q2S005317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280104 SWODY1 SPC AC 280102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ MBL MKE BRL P35 35 S FNB 55 N RSL 30 ESE IML 40 SW IML 20 SE AKO 45 ESE CYS 50 E DGW 10 SSW SHR 20 NNE WEY 3DU 55 NNW FCA 30 NNW HVR 30 NW Y22 35 NNE 9V9 25 S RWF 15 W HIB 75 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 30 WNW LFK 20 NNW MLC 20 SSE CNU 45 ENE DDC 25 NNE AMA 15 NNW MAF 40 SW P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP 30 W ALM 20 NW 4CR 15 SE TAD 20 SW GLD 20 SSW AKO 30 E FCL 45 NNE LAR 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW OWY 35 E BNO 45 ENE S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 25 W BIS 35 N HON 30 NW RWF 20 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO NEB AND NWWD TO MT... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO IA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH A 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A 30 KT SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD LAKE MI WILL MAINTAIN WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NWRN WI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS APPARENT DEVELOPING BOW ECHO SUGGESTS THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ENEWD ACROSS WI AND THE NRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. FARTHER S ACROSS IA...WELL DEFINED MCS WITH SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NON-SEVERE DUE TO WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY GIVEN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... SLY LLJ ACROSS KS NOSING INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO MCS/S ACROSS NEB INTO WRN IA AND POTENTIALLY SRN SD. THESE MCS/S MAY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SWRN SD/NWRN NEB BORDER AND THE OTHER MOVING NNEWD OVER NRN KS. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...WITH THE FORECAST FOR PERSISTENT EWD MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/N OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE OVERNIGHT MCS/S. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRACKS NEWD FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING SELY LLJ FROM ERN-NORTH CENTRAL MT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... MAINTAINING AT LEAST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MT. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ERN MT/SWRN ND OVERNIGHT...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 05:55:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 00:55:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506280607.j5S67BSx001415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280604 SWODY1 SPC AC 280602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE BIS 50 NNE ABR 25 NNE ATY FSD 20 E YKN 25 SSW VTN 35 WNW VTN 40 SSW REJ 40 NW REJ 35 SSW DIK 55 ESE BIS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 55 ESE FAR 40 WNW IWD 25 SSE MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... 10 E OSC MKG 30 E RFD 20 S MMO 20 NE SPI 15 ESE UIN 20 W IRK 25 NNE STJ 25 NE BIE GRI 20 WNW BBW 15 SSW CDR 45 NE DGW 10 NNW SHR 25 N BIL 30 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 35 WNW BPT 15 SE SHV 35 N TXK 50 ENE CNU 20 SW RSL 45 W GCK 45 ESE TCC 20 N CNM 65 SE ELP ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN 30 SSE BLH 10 SSW TRM 30 NE EDW 40 SSW BIH 70 NNW BIH 35 ESE NFL 30 SSE BAM 25 W OWY 45 NNW BOI 55 WSW MSO 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 NNW EPM 30 WSW AUG 15 SSW LCI 15 W ORH 40 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SD...FAR SRN ND AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL TRACK EWD TODAY REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AFTER 29/00Z. BAND OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE BASE OF THE NWRN UPPER TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SERN CANADA. A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND MCV/S WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN CA PER WV IMAGERY... WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. IN THE EAST...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE PRIMARY WLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTEND FROM NRN LOWER MI TO CENTRAL IA BY 29/00Z. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM NEB TO MT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ERN WY/ WRN SD. ...NRN PLAINS TO WRN IA/SRN MN... SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SD. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM ERN MT SEWD TO CENTRAL SD TO NERN NEB/WRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN SD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND MUCH OF MT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MOISTENING AIR MASS AND COMBINE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG/ FROM ERN MT TO SWRN MN/NWRN IA/NERN NEB. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MT...AND THEN SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SWRN ND AND SD TO NERN NEB/WRN IA. STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS TO 50 KT ATOP SSELY 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SD SUGGEST AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. 30-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WIND FIELDS FOR UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S MOVING ENEWD OVER THE DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH THESE MCS/S OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LLJ STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND NOSING INTO WRN/NRN IA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS ALSO MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA. ...NRN LOWER MI WWD TO WI/ERN MN... COLD FRONT AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM ONGOING MCS ACROSS WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-30 KT. THUS...MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE GREATEST THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ERN IA/NRN-CENTRAL IL... ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB INTO IA/NRN MO ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF THE LLJ. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS SERN IA/NRN MO WHERE SFC-6 KM SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ...OH VALLEY REGION... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -10 C AT 500 MB/ AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...UT TO CENTRAL ROCKIES... ALTHOUGH THE CA UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD UT AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...50 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 12:31:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 07:31:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506281242.j5SCgnjc005440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281240 SWODY1 SPC AC 281238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DIK ABR ATY BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB VTN 4BQ MLS GDV DIK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E OSC MKG 35 NNW CGX PIA IRK FNB GRI BBW 15 WNW IML 30 S AKO DEN CYS 45 S GCC SHR BIL 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL FAR IWD MQT 10 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 35 WNW BPT 15 SE SHV 35 N TXK 40 W JLN 30 S RSL 35 NNW LBL 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN 25 S BLH 35 N TRM 40 NW DAG 10 W BIH 55 SSE NFL 25 SE BAM 25 W OWY 45 NNW BOI 55 WSW MSO 80 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...MT...AND NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL MT...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL EMERGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF MT/ND/SD/NEB TODAY. ...SERN MT/SWRN ND/MUCH OF SD... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ID. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS PARTS OF WY. THIS RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A RATHER STRONG CAP AND A SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS NEB...WHICH HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THIS AREA. POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING AND RETURN OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO ELIMINATE THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MT AND EASTERN WY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...QUICKLY BECOMING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING/. PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS BY LATE EVENING AND RACE ACROSS SD...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...WRN NEB INTO NERN CO... FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO/SOUTHEAST WY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES...PROMOTING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. AS STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING...GREATER INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AS WELL. ...MN/IA/WI/MI... MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO LOWER MI TODAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF IA/WI. HOWEVER...THIS AREA SHOULD DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON TO MODERATE LEVELS. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND OTHER WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. ...OH VALLEY... REMNANTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER IND THIS MORNING. SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND POCKET OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS NOT WARRANTED TODAY. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. DESPITE DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS...UVVS AHEAD OF VARIOUS UPPER SYSTEMS AND MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...COUPLED WITH LARGE DCAPE VALUES...WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 16:09:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 11:09:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506281620.j5SGKXsg017550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281543 SWODY1 SPC AC 281541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DIK ABR ATY BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB VTN 4BQ MLS GDV DIK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E OSC MKG 35 NNW CGX PIA IRK FNB GRI 20 W MCK 35 WNW GUP 15 NE GCN 20 N BCE 55 N PUC 30 NNW CYS 35 N DGW 35 SE BIL 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL FAR IWD MQT 10 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN 25 S BLH 35 N TRM 40 NW DAG 10 W BIH 50 SE NFL 15 WSW BAM 65 W OWY 50 S BKE 15 WNW ALW 50 NW 4OM ...CONT... 10 S MFE 10 NNW CRP 50 NNW BPT 10 NNE SHV 45 WSW JLN 20 W ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...MT AND NEB...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER NWRN U.S. PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN MOVING EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW OFF SRN CA MONDAY IS NOW OPENING UP AND ACCELERATING NEWD AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FEATURE FOR SUMMER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MAJOR S/WV TROUGH ACROSS PAC NW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. A 60-70KT 500MB WIND MAX WITH SRN S/WV TRACKS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS PHASE TONIGHT PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF ASCENT SPREADING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT FROM SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO TRAILS SWWD THRU UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS SRN MN THEN WWD ACROSS SD. PLAINS PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL AND SHIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN EASTERN WY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM NRN IL TO NRN MO AND KS WILL MIX OUT ALLOWING THE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CENTRAL U.S. TO SPREAD N AND NW INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ...SERN MT/SWRN ND AND MUCH OF SD... SCENARIO FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE STILL REASONABLE THIS AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. S/WV RIDGING MOVING INTO HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A CAP ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NWWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS AS FAR AS ERN MT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO E AND NE OF DEVELOPING WY LOW BY THE TIME STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND COMBINATION OF THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES...SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO FEED OFF 30-40KT LLJ AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE RISK IS LIKELY IN THIS PHASE OF THE SEVERE EPISODE. ...SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES... THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NEWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM ACROSS SRN UT/NWRN AZ. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY...A RATHER IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON GPS IPW AND MANIFESTED IN CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SUPPORTS A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UT/AZ. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 50-60KT COUPLED WITH THE STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM HIGH BASED STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. ...WRN NEB INTO NERN CO... STRONG HEATING TO LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY . SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO/SERN WY BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES...PROMOTING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...MN/IA/WI/MI... PRIMARY FRONT WILL LIE FROM SRN MN EWD ACROSS LWR MI TODAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF FRONT. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AIRMASS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VICINITY FRONT AND ANY REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN WARM SECTOR. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND 20 KT OR LESS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PRIMARILY PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. ...OH VALLEY... REMNANTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD INTO SWRN OH ATTM. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND POCKET OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS NOT WARRANTED. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 20:02:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 15:02:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506282013.j5SKDqLJ012955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282010 SWODY1 SPC AC 282008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ABR BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB ANW 40 WNW VTN 4BQ 55 WNW MLS 40 SSW GGW 20 SE OLF 10 ESE DIK 60 ENE ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 40 NW EAU 35 W ALO 35 NE OMA 10 N OLU 25 N IML 25 NNW LIC 35 N 4SL 30 W GUP 40 NW GCN 30 NW BCE 40 SSE SLC 20 W BPI 25 SSE LND 40 SW DGW 35 ENE CPR 50 W SHR 35 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MFE 10 NNW CRP 50 NNW BPT 10 NNE SHV 45 WSW JLN 20 W ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 15 W SVC 35 S PRC 35 NW IGM 30 NE TPH 45 ENE U31 30 WSW BAM 45 NNW WMC 50 S BKE 10 SE ALW 30 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO SRN ND...MUCH OF SD...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...ERN MT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NEWD INTO / DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND ERN MT ATTM...NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NW-SE FROM N CENTRAL MT ACROSS SWRN SD INTO NERN NEB. SELY FLOW ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN MT...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VEERING. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD...EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO WRN SD WITH TIME. STORMS SHOULD BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING -- POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...ERN HALF OF UT / NRN AZ / NM NEWD INTO SRN WY / CO / WRN KS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS UT / NRN AZ AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN AZ / SRN NV / SWRN UT. LIMITED / HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY / DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN NM / CO / SRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING. FURTHER SE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND INTO SERN CO / WRN KS...STORMS ARE FURTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX. NONETHELESS...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BENEATH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM LOWER MI / ERN IL EWD ACROSS OH / WV / PA TO THE DELMARVA REGION. STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE OCCURRING ALONG / AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER OH. WHILE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER / MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK AREAWIDE. THOUGH THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER / PULSE-TYPE STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 20:16:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 15:16:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506282027.j5SKRlkq022371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282023 SWODY1 SPC AC 282022 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ABR BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB ANW 40 WNW VTN 4BQ 55 WNW MLS 40 SSW GGW 20 SE OLF 10 ESE DIK 60 ENE ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 40 NW EAU 35 W ALO 35 NE OMA 10 N OLU 25 N IML 25 NNW LIC 35 N 4SL 30 W GUP 40 NW GCN 30 NW BCE 40 SSE SLC 20 W BPI 25 SSE LND 40 SW DGW 35 ENE CPR 50 W SHR 35 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MFE 10 NNW CRP 50 NNW BPT 10 NNE SHV 45 WSW JLN 20 W ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 15 W SVC 35 S PRC 35 NW IGM 30 NE TPH 45 ENE U31 30 WSW BAM 45 NNW WMC 50 S BKE 10 SE ALW 30 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO SRN ND...MUCH OF SD...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... CORRECTED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC TO REMOVE EXTRANEOUS SLIGHT RISK LABEL ...ERN MT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NEWD INTO / DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND ERN MT ATTM...NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NW-SE FROM N CENTRAL MT ACROSS SWRN SD INTO NERN NEB. SELY FLOW ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN MT...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VEERING. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD...EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO WRN SD WITH TIME. STORMS SHOULD BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING -- POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...ERN HALF OF UT / NRN AZ / NM NEWD INTO SRN WY / CO / WRN KS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS UT / NRN AZ AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN AZ / SRN NV / SWRN UT. LIMITED / HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY / DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN NM / CO / SRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING. FURTHER SE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND INTO SERN CO / WRN KS...STORMS ARE FURTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX. NONETHELESS...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BENEATH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM LOWER MI / ERN IL EWD ACROSS OH / WV / PA TO THE DELMARVA REGION. STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE OCCURRING ALONG / AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER OH. WHILE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER / MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK AREAWIDE. THOUGH THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER / PULSE-TYPE STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 00:57:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 19:57:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506290108.j5T18hJg008992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290106 SWODY1 SPC AC 290104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW Y22 10 NE Y22 55 NE ABR 15 ESE ATY 30 ESE YKN 30 S YKN 45 NNE BUB 25 N MHN 25 E PHP 55 N PHP 40 SSW Y22 20 SW Y22. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 35 N FAR 50 ENE STC 30 WSW RST 35 W ALO 20 NE OMA 25 SSW OLU 10 E HSI 40 ESE MCK 30 NW GLD 35 SW COS 30 WSW ASE 50 WSW CAG 45 WSW RWL 25 SE CPR 35 N CDR 50 NW RAP 30 WNW SHR 50 N BIL 55 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 50 WSW MLU 30 E LIT 15 WSW HRO 35 W JLN 20 SW ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 45 SW DMN 40 NNE GUP 35 NNW U17 25 NNE ELY 25 NE OWY S80 85 WNW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN SD...SRN ND AND NRN-NERN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWWD INTO CO/SRN WY... ...MUCH OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY... WV IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SECOND TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN UT/CO. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THESE TWO MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM WY/CO EWD TOWARD MN BY LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN TWO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JETS /1.) ONE SELY LLJ UP TO 40 KT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD TO CENTRAL ND AND 2.) A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA LATE TONIGHT/. THESE INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND STRONG UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS THE UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO TWO OR MORE MCS/S...1. FROM ERN MT INTO ND AND 2. ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN SD AND NRN NEB...WITH THIS LATTER ONE POTENTIALLY REACHING SRN MN/NRN IA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG/ TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SD/NEB EWD TO SRN MN/IA...WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER N... INSTABILITY MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE...BUT INCREASING LLJ OVER THE DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVERNIGHT INTO ND. ...WY/CO... SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING SPREADS ENEWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. ..PETERS.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 06:06:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 01:06:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506290617.j5T6HaOG012346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290615 SWODY1 SPC AC 290614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE AXN 45 SSW HIB 45 W IWD 20 NNE RHI 15 WNW OSH 20 SSW MSN 35 SE DBQ 35 W CID 25 SSW FOD 30 SE SPW 25 NW MKT 35 NNE AXN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ANJ 20 W TVC 45 SE MKE 15 NNW CMI 25 NNW STL 50 SSE OJC 40 E ICT 45 WSW P28 20 NNE LBL 35 SW HLC 20 NNE EAR 50 NNE BUB 35 E PIR 55 ENE MBG 35 ESE DVL 60 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 45 SE LFK 35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 25 ESE END 20 N CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP ...CONT... 35 E DUG 45 NW TCS 30 NNE 4CR 50 SW CAO 45 SW PUB 10 NW GJT 40 E VEL 20 WNW RWL 25 N RIW 25 NE BZN 25 W HLN 20 ENE PUW 40 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MN INTO WRN/CENTRAL WI AND NERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SWWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO /POTENTIAL DERECHO/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER CO...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN ND INTO FAR NWRN MN...INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS PER 90-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS. A SECOND SURFACE LOW WITH THE CO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NRN NEB TO SRN MN BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CONNECTING THESE SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION MOVES SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...ERN DAKOTAS TO WRN GREAT LAKES AND SWWD TO CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING OF A 40-45 KT SLY LLJ THIS MORNING...AND THEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT ACROSS IA INTO MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH A 60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADING FROM NEB/SD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ND...WITH A SECOND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX POTENTIALLY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD. DESPITE SOME CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MN/WI TO AID IN WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN SD EWD TO CENTRAL/SRN MN AND MUCH OF WI COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A TRIPLE POINT OVER SERN ND/NERN SD AND ESEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TO CENTRAL KS REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS ACROSS ERN MN/NERN IA AND WI. GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /65-70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP 40-45 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS/ SPREADING ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY REACH ERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND LAKE MI/FAR WRN LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE HIGH LCLS...AND GENERALLY BE DIURNAL. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN MO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND SRN NEB TONIGHT. ...NEW ENGLAND TO OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG A COLD FRONT SPREADING SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SWWD OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /20-25 KT/ FROM NY TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS QUEBEC MAY RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 12:36:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 07:36:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506291247.j5TClGvj022904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291245 SWODY1 SPC AC 291243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FAR BJI 45 WSW DLH EAU VOK DBQ CID 45 SSW FOD SUX BKX 55 NE ABR FAR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CMX IMT MTW 10 NNE CGX 10 NNE PIA 45 SSE IRK OJC HUT 10 SE DDC 45 N DDC 55 N RSL LNK YKN ABR 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 45 NW TCS 30 NNE 4CR 50 SW CAO 45 SW PUB 10 NW GJT 40 E VEL 45 WNW RWL 30 SSW COD 10 SE BZN 15 SE 3DU 20 NNW S80 40 NW 4OM ...CONT... 10 SW GLS 45 SE LFK 35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 20 SE END 10 NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN ND/SD...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL KS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...MN...IA...AND WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...SOUTHWEST MN...AND WESTERN IA. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS MN. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...ALLOWING AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INTENSE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER. STORMS IN THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH PARAMETERS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG FRONT INTO NORTHWEST IA WHERE A PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP MAY INHIBIT INITIATION. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS MN DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS BY LATE EVENING AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IA AND WI. THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. ...EASTERN ND... MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. AIR MASS OVER EASTERN ND WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE THAN FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...POCKET OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER VORT MAX MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...ERN NEB/KS/MO... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. LACK OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHEAST STATES... MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NY TODAY. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS REGION...AND EVEN INTO PARTS OF PA AND NORTHERN VA. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 16:49:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 11:49:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506291700.j5TH0Dgv028140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291647 SWODY1 SPC AC 291645 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW AXN 30 SSE BRD 65 NW EAU 35 NNW VOK 15 E LNR DBQ CID 40 SSW FOD 25 N SUX BKX 55 NNE ATY 15 NNW AXN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CMX IMT MTW 10 N CGX IND 40 SSW HUF 30 SE BRL ICT 15 WSW DDC 40 NE GCK 55 N RSL 10 NE LNK 40 E MBG 20 NE JMS 70 NE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW RUT 20 N LCI 10 NE PSM 15 SE BOS 20 NNE EWB BDR 10 NW POU ALB 25 NW RUT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 45 SE LFK 35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 20 SE END 10 NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP ...CONT... 35 E DUG 55 NW TCS 50 NNE 4CR 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 45 NE GJT 50 NW CAG 15 SSE RIW 30 W COD 25 ENE BTM 10 NW S80 10 WSW PUW 30 W GEG 15 NNW EAT 20 N OLM 25 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN SD...NRN IA...CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SWD INTO KS AND NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND... PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN SD...IS FORECAST TO ALSO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NNEWD INTO EXTREME SERN MANITOBA BY 30/12Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO SWRN KS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN SD...SRN/CENTRAL MN...NRN IA AND WRN WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION WERE MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NEWD...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS ND AND NRN MN. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN MN/NWRN IA. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AND MOVE EWD TO THE MN/SD BORDER AROUND 21Z. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR LINE AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN/NRN IA AND INTO WI OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SD LOW SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI. ALTHOUGH REMNANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE AREA...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME HEATING AND AIDED IN THE AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODELS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN. GIVEN A WEAKER CAP...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM EAST CENTRAL MN SEWD INTO WRN WI. LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ...ERN NEB/KS/NWRN MO... MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SPREADS INTO KS. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LIFT ACROSS KS. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. THREAT WILL PERSIST MAINLY UNTIL MID EVENING AS UPDRAFTS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ELEVATED. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NY. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE MARGINALLY WEAK SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..IMY/TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 19:50:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 14:50:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506292001.j5TK1npP019023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291959 SWODY1 SPC AC 291957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW AXN 20 S BRD 35 WSW CWA 25 NW MSN 25 ESE DBQ 30 SE FOD 30 NNE SUX FSD ATY 55 N ATY 50 NW AXN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 ENE CMX 50 NE ESC 40 ENE MKE 15 S DAY 35 NNE SDF 15 NNE BMI 10 W ICT 10 S DDC 35 NNE GCK 55 N RSL 10 NE LNK 40 E MBG 20 NE JMS 70 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 25 SW NIR 35 N PSX 15 NNE POE 25 SE PBF 20 NNE POF 20 NNW TBN 25 WNW BVO 10 NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP ...CONT... 35 E DUG 55 NW TCS 50 NNE 4CR 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 45 NE GJT 50 NW CAG 15 SSE RIW 30 W COD 20 SE BTM 10 NW S80 10 WSW PUW 30 W GEG 15 NNW EAT 20 N OLM 25 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN SD...THE SRN HALF OF MN...WRN WI...AND NRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SWD INTO IN / IL / NRN MO / KS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWD TO KS / IN... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NERN SD ATTM INVOF SURFACE LOW / COLD FRONT. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT / ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD INTO MN / WRN WI / IA...ALONG AND JUST N OF 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES. THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHICH NOW LIES FROM W CENTRAL MN SEWD ACROSS WRN WI. OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME AS FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT INCREASES. THIS WOULD ALLOW AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FURTHER S INTO KS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT...AND THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND THUS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ALONG SEWD EXTENSION OF WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL / IN. THOUGH SHEAR WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH SEWD EXTENT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID EVENING. ...THE NORTHEAST... LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF ERN NY / SRN VT / SRN NY / WRN MA...AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 01:04:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 20:04:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506300115.j5U1FwG4018207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300113 SWODY1 SPC AC 300110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW CMX 20 WSW CMX 10 WSW IMT 10 NNE MTW 30 E MKE 40 SSW SBN 20 SSW LAF 20 SSW CMI 20 NNW SPI 20 NNE UIN 25 ENE IRK 25 S P35 25 W OJC 35 ENE HUT 10 S DDC 15 NNW GCK 35 E HLC 25 SSE HSI 40 ENE OLU SUX 20 ESE FSD 20 ESE ATY 10 SE ABR 40 SSE JMS 50 SW GFK 65 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BPT 35 NNW POE 25 N HEZ 50 NW MEI 40 NE CBM 20 NNE MSL 15 SSW CKV MDH 55 SSW BLV 25 W VIH 55 SSW SZL 20 N PNC 30 W GAG 30 SSW EHA 15 NNE LAA 30 SSW LIC 15 ENE DEN 20 NNE FCL 40 SSE DGW 25 WNW DGW 25 S COD 30 N 27U 30 ENE EPH 40 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 NNE GGW 35 WSW GDV 35 NW REJ 50 S Y22 MBG 50 WNW JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 45 WNW ANJ 40 S PLN 25 SSE HTL DTW ...CONT... 15 ENE CLE 20 NW FKL 15 NE BFD 35 WNW ELM 35 NW SYR ...CONT... 50 NNW 3B1 20 NNE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DMN 25 NNW ALM 40 SE LVS 30 NE TCC 25 SE CVS 25 NW HOB 20 E GDP 55 SW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY...MIDWEST...AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...UPR MS VLY TO WRN GREAT LAKES... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ND SFC LOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND INTO SCNTRL CANADA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE SYSTEM BEGINS TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MASS TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT ACROSS CNTRL MN AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF OUTRUNNING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS RECOVERY AND STABLE ELY FLOW ORIGINATING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO MOSTLY HAIL AS STORMS SPREAD EAST ACROSS NERN MN AND NRN WI. FARTHER SOUTH...A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SRN MN. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE CELLS HAVE STRUGGLED TO PERSIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO A STRONG CAP...NEW ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA ATTM. AIR MASS AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...IA/KS/MO... A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS SWWD FROM WCNTRL IA ACROSS SERN NEB...AND INTO CNTRL KS. THIS CONVECTION INITIATED AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREAD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AND HOT AIR MASS OVER THESE AREAS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING ON THE SRN EDGE OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG INSTABILITY IN A MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVELY- INDUCED COLD POOL...FROM KS NEWD...COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PROCESS...AN MCS MAY SPREAD EAST INTO NWRN MO LATER TONIGHT WITH A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT CONTINUING. ..CARBIN.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 05:38:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 00:38:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506300550.j5U5o9RN030618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300547 SWODY1 SPC AC 300546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI 10 NNE ZZV 45 NW HTS 35 S LEX 10 SE CKV 15 NW MKL 60 NNW LIT 20 W FSM 20 SSW OKC 15 NNW LTS 65 ENE AMA 40 N AMA 10 N DHT 40 E RTN 15 N TAD COS 15 E DEN 35 WSW AKO 35 ESE AKO 45 SSW GLD 40 NNE GCK 25 W RSL 20 SSE CNK 10 WSW STJ 30 NE IRK 30 ENE BRL 35 NE MLI 10 ENE JVL 10 S OSH 45 ENE AUW 45 SSW IWD 45 WNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 45 SSE SDY 25 SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 N BPI 25 NW IDA 20 SW 27U 60 SSE S06 25 S GEG 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 20 SE ELP 20 NW CNM 45 ENE ROW 55 SW TCC 30 SSE LVS 50 NNW LVS 20 ENE ALS 20 SSW LAR 60 NE DGW 30 SE RAP 35 W VTN 45 W EAR 30 WNW BIE 20 NNE CID 35 NNW MSN 15 SE CWA 70 S DLH 40 NW HIB 20 NE RRT ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 25 W POE 20 NNW SHV 20 ESE PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE PLAINS AND ERN CO... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THIS PERIOD. SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM MN/IA SWWD TO KS/CO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES GENERALLY EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WI...MI...IND...AND IL. WHILE STRONGER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AREAS...THE WEAKER/TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SINK SWD FROM KS/MO INTO OK/AR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE...SFC AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE WRN U.S. WHILE A WEAK UPR TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE STRONGER GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. ...GREAT LAKES TO LWR OH VLY... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF UPR AND LWR MI ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONE. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING THAT AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MI AND PARTS OF NRN LWR MI. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...FROM SRN LWR MI INTO NRN IND/IL. ANOTHER AXIS OF WEAKER DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO INDICATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN UPR MI ACROSS WI BY AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ALONG OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WI AS AND UPR MI. AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...COMBINATION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN CLUSTERS AND LINES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM CNTRL IL...EWD ACROSS IND AND SRN LWR MI...AND INTO SWRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE FRONT OVER WI/UPR MI. ...PLAINS/OZARKS... TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IDENTIFIED BY SFC WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS KS/MO. WHILE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERY STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL ALL LEAD TO TSTM FORMATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KT ALIGNED WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WOULD SUGGEST CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO A SLOW MOVING MCS ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK AND SWRN MO THROUGH LATE EVENING. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...CO/HIGH PLAINS... MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING AND PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TOPPED BY 25-40KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN/SERN CO AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 12:31:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 07:31:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506301242.j5UCge80007543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301240 SWODY1 SPC AC 301238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ERI PIT 25 S UNI LEX BWG DYR FSM FSI AMA DHT TAD COS DEN AKO 45 SSW GLD 40 NNE GCK RSL STJ BRL CGX 45 W MBS 15 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 15 S SDY 25 SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 N BPI 25 NW IDA 20 SW 27U 60 SSE S06 25 S GEG 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 10 SE ELP 40 WNW CNM 45 ENE ROW 55 SW TCC 30 SSE LVS 50 NNW LVS 10 SW ALS 45 SW LAR 60 NE DGW 30 SE RAP 35 W VTN 45 W EAR 30 WSW LNK 20 NNE CID 20 SE LSE 15 W EAU 35 WNW HIB 10 W INL ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 25 W POE 20 NNW SHV 20 ESE PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...LOWER MI/OH/IND THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER MN...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM SD/NEB INTO WI/MI. PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD/ SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK IN THIS REGION...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...LOWER MI/OH/IND/IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AIR MASS BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN IND AND CENTRAL IL. CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MO/KS/OK... SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT REMAINS MOIST...AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT. WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS. HIGH LCL/S AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF OK AND WESTERN MO. ...EASTERN CO... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN CO. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/GUYER.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 15:57:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 10:57:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506301608.j5UG8p8P010836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301557 SWODY1 SPC AC 301555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W JHW 15 WNW MGW 25 S UNI LEX BWG DYR FSM FSI AMA DHT TAD COS DEN AKO 45 SSW GLD 40 NNE GCK RSL STJ BRL CGX 45 W MBS 15 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 15 S SDY 25 SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 NNW RIW 30 NNW RIW 40 SE JAC 10 NNW IDA 45 ENE SUN 35 WSW SUN 15 NNW BOI 10 E LWS 30 S GEG 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 75 E DUG 45 NNW SVC 40 SSE ABQ 20 NNW LVS 10 SW ALS 45 SW LAR 50 ENE DGW 30 NE CDR 35 W VTN 45 W EAR 10 WSW LNK 25 W DBQ 20 W MSN 35 E AUW 50 E IWD 70 NNW CMX ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 10 S LFK 20 WNW GGG 40 SW PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG SUMMERTIME LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE TRAILS FROM THE ONTARIO SURFACE LOW S AND THEN SWWD ACROSS LS TO CENTRAL IA AND BACK TO ERN CO. OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED SURFACE BOUNDARIES WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT ACTIVE MCS SERN MI/NWRN OH TRAILS A BOUNDARY WSWWD INTO CENTRAL IL WITH ANOTHER E/W BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MO/KS. ...LOWER MI/OH/IND/IL... STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE MOIST AIR MASS STILL AVAILABLE IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS ACTIVITY. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WITH THE INCREASING AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SHEAR WILL RANGE DOWNWARD FROM 30-40KT OVER GREAT LAKES TO AROUND 20KT OH VALLEY. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS ALONG WITH HAIL. THE CURRENT MCS LIKELY TO CONTINUE E/SEWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...THE WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES DOWN STREAM AIR MASS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS WWD TO ERN CO... MOIST AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS MUCH OF AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO FORM IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN CO. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY HIGH BASES AND LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH ONLY A SMALL RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES. ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE SEWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINING A RISK OF SEVERE AFTER DARK. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 19:52:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 14:52:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506302003.j5UK3Hno000635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302000 SWODY1 SPC AC 301959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W JHW LBE 15 NE EKN SSU 15 SW BKW 40 SSE JKL BWG HOP 60 ENE LIT HOT OKC 35 S AMA 35 ESE LVS 40 ESE ALS 4FC DEN 10 W LHX EHA GCK 20 NW SLN 15 WNW TOP MKC VIH BLV DEC 20 SSW MMO MKE MBL 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 45 SE OSC 30 ENE FNT JXN FWA MIE 40 WSW DAY 35 SE DAY CMH 20 N MFD 10 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP NIR 45 N BPT ESF MLU TXK 40 SW PRX 70 N ABI 10 W BGS 35 ESE INK 45 E MRF 85 SSW P07 ...CONT... ART UCA 30 NE BGM 35 NNE MSV 10 WSW ALB 10 W BTV 30 NE PBG ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW HVR BIL 81V LBF 10 ESE LNK 45 ESE SUX MCW LSE 15 S IMT 135 NE CMX ...CONT... 60 SW DMN 55 W ONM SAF 25 SW ALS 4BL 15 NE BCE 20 ESE MLF OGD PIH 10 SW BOI 30 NNW 4LW 15 NW MFR 25 S SLE 65 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.... ...PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES**... CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND ITS NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY...TOWARD HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OF CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL TAG ALONG WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM...PROGRESSING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS REGION. SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS REGION...WHILE CONVECTION PERSISTS/INCREASES FURTHER IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY WHICH NOW CURVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE IT INTERSECTS PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE HAS WEAKENED/ BECOME LESS APPARENT FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STILL BECOME FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST LIFT...AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BELOW MODERATE WESTERLIES IS MORE PRONOUNCED...AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THIS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 00:48:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 19:48:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506010058.j510wDW9012764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010056 SWODY1 SPC AC 010054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SJT BGS 45 SSW LBB 30 W LBB 15 W PVW 10 ENE PVW 35 SSE CDS 60 SW SPS 50 NE ABI 30 NNW BWD 40 W BWD 20 N SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CTY 25 W GNV 30 WSW DAB MLB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S JCT 60 WSW JCT 50 ENE ROW 35 WSW CVS 35 NW CVS 30 ESE TCC 40 NW CDS 15 SSE FSI 25 SSE ADM 30 NE DAL 45 E ACT 35 NE AUS 35 N SAT 40 S JCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS 25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 40 NE MKL 40 ESE BNA 15 ENE AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP 30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV 40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ACY 25 ESE HGR 15 S LBE 20 S YNG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 40 N BML 15 SSW MWN 10 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 10 S EWB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN FL... ...SRN PLAINS... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS WEST TX WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER-TROUGH SLIDES EWD OVERNIGHT...THE MCS WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY CENTERED NEAR ABILENE...WILL CONTINUE BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE MCS BECOMES MORE LINEAR IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MARGINAL AS THE MCS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT. ...NRN FL... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WRN FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN FL LATE THIS EVENING SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE AS A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS INLAND. THIS MAY RESULT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS FL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS ROTATING CELLS MOVE INLAND. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LARGE HAIL...STEEP LAPSE RATES AT LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS THAT MOVE OVER THE PENINSULA. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 05:51:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 00:51:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506010601.j5161Mmi005845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010559 SWODY1 SPC AC 010557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 30 ENE COT 25 N HDO 55 ENE JCT 45 WNW TPL 20 SE ACT 55 E CLL 30 ENE GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PBI 25 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 W CTY 10 E JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RRT 25 ENE FAR 10 SSW ATY 65 W YKN 25 N LBF 40 NNW IML 20 WSW SNY 50 W BFF 55 NNE DGW 30 ESE 4BQ 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW P07 15 NE GDP LVS 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 45 WSW PUB 20 ESE MTJ 25 WNW 4HV 35 NE P38 65 E TPH 35 N U31 30 WNW EKO 55 NNW ENV 60 S BYI 20 SW BYI 30 WSW TWF 60 NW OWY 20 SE BNO 30 SE RDM 25 N RDM 20 SSE EAT 35 NE 4OM ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 60 SW IWD 25 W VOK 20 E RFD 15 SSW BEH 20 SE TOL 20 SW MFD 35 WNW UNI 55 WNW HTS 30 N LEX 15 SSW SDF 45 SW OWB 35 NNE DYR 25 SSE MKL 30 NNW MSL 40 W CHA 25 NE SPA 30 S DAN 35 NE RWI 20 ESE ECG ...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 ENE LEB 25 NE BAF 10 N BDR 20 S TTN 30 WNW ILG 25 N HGR 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN ND WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN CANADA TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LOW SLIDES EWD INTO MT. AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...TX COASTAL PLAINS... AN MCS CURRENTLY IN CNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD REACHING THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE LINE BEFORE THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F SHOULD ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE AND TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 21Z SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...FL... A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SERN US AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS FL BY 21Z SHOW SBCAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR SUPERCELLS...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 12:36:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 07:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506011246.j51Ck5Me009056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011242 SWODY1 SPC AC 011241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 50 WSW FAR HON 55 E ANW 15 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML SNY 55 N CYS GCC 25 S GDV 60 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 20 N COT 40 ESE COT 20 SSE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI ABY 40 E TOI 10 NNE AUO 35 N MCN AGS 15 ESE CHS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 NNW MLB ...CONT... 20 S PBI 60 WSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW P07 15 NE GDP LVS 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 45 WSW PUB 20 ESE MTJ 25 WNW 4HV 35 NE P38 65 E TPH 35 N U31 30 WNW EKO 55 NNW ENV 65 SSE TWF 20 SW BYI 30 WSW TWF 40 NW OWY 20 SE BNO 30 SE RDM 25 N RDM 20 SSE EAT 35 NE 4OM ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 50 SW IWD 15 SE LSE MLI 45 NW DNV 20 NNW MIE 40 NNW DAY 30 W CMH 50 SSW CMH 35 ESE LUK 45 NE SDF 35 W SDF 25 ENE CKV 40 S BNA 45 W CHA 20 NNE AND 35 WNW SOP 25 ESE RWI 25 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 ENE LEB 25 NE BAF 10 N BDR 20 S TTN 35 WNW ILG 15 NE AOO 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN FAR SRN TX THIS MORNING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA MAINLY THIS MORNING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL GA AREA THIS AFTERNOON... ...SNYOPSIS... UPPER LOW IN NWRN ND WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN CANADA TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH ID...SHIFTS ENEWD INTO WRN ND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. ...NRN PLAINS... DESPITE A WEAK RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A 70 KT JET MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ID UPPER LOW...WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM WY INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIS SOUNDING WAS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED THIS MORNING AND THE LIFT SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO SPREAD IN FROM SERN MT/ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES RESULTING IN AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG FORCING AND AMOUNT OF LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER. ...FAR SRN TX... OVERNIGHT MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR SRN TX SHOULD MOVE SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING. A STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY TO INHIBIT MORE STORMS FROM DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. ...CENTRAL GA AREA... AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD...WARM FRONT NEAR THE AL/GA/FL BORDER IS EXPECTED TO ALSO LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO GA/SC DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE E-W WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY...IF STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA... A BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA. MID 70S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SERN NM/WRN TX... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PUSHED WWD INTO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED AND THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ..IMY/JEWELL.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 15:59:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 10:59:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506011609.j51G9Yb8010329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011605 SWODY1 SPC AC 011604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 50 WSW FAR HON 55 E ANW 15 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML SNY 55 N CYS GCC 25 S GDV 60 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JAX 20 S MGR 30 WSW ABY 15 ENE LGC 45 SSW AHN 30 ENE AGS 35 NE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CAR 25 E MWN 20 SSE EEN 10 N BDR 20 S TTN 35 WNW ILG 15 NE AOO 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI ...CONT... 45 W MRF 45 E ALM 55 NNE 4CR 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 35 SSE GUC 45 NNE 4BL 30 NE BCE 50 SSW P38 65 NE TPH 35 NE U31 20 NNE ENV 40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70 NW OWY 50 SE BNO 25 NNW BNO 35 E RDM 25 SW RDM 55 SSE EUG 25 NNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 20 N DLH 35 ESE MSP 25 SE RST 25 ESE OTM 30 NW ALN 35 W EVV 25 SE OWB 50 S BNA 20 WSW CHA 10 S GSP 25 E CLT 15 NW GSB 25 NE HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE STREAM OF S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS UPPER LOW NWRN ND THIS AM MOVES N AND WEAKENS WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES EWD QUICKLY ACROSS WY/MT. OVER SERN U.S. THE TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE ONLY LITTLE TODAY AS LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WRN AL POSSIBLY DRIFTS A LITTLE WWD INTO MS. AT THE SURFACE A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WRN WY THIS AM WILL ENTER NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS INTO SRN CANADA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SERN STATES...A WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS EWD FROM WEAK LOW WCENTRAL AL. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC TODAY. A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS SPREADING ACROSS SRN GA INTO SRN SC AS WARM FRONT MOVES N. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... PREVIOUS OUTLOOK SCENARIO STILL VALID AS STRONG 100-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DRIVE ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE EXCELLENT SUPPORT FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NERN WY. LOW LEVEL JET OVER HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW WILL PICK UP TO 40-50 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET PROVIDE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATICS/SHEAR FOR SUPPORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MLCAPES UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY WRN DAKOTAS/WY/MT BORDERS AND THEN SPREAD RATHER RAPIDLY NE AND E THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL...SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG KINEMATICS. ...GA/SRN SC... REF MCD #1107 VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN GA INTO SC AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...VEERING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS VICINITY WARM FRONT AND 20-25 KT OF SFC-1 KM SHEAR...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FURTHER S THRU FL PENINSULA...OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY STABILIZED AIR MASS ...BUT WITH 20-30 KT OF SHEAR AND A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY AND 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SWRN TX... WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS WEAKENED THIS AREA...THERE REMAINS A NWLY FLOW PATTERN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH 30KT OF NWLY 500 MB FLOW AND 10-15 KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER SELY FLOW...SHEAR ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAINTAIN A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 19:58:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 14:58:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506012008.j51K8ECg007253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012003 SWODY1 SPC AC 012002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 35 SSE GFK 20 NW ATY 55 SSW MHE 35 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML 30 WNW SNY 55 N CYS 15 SSE WRL 30 ENE COD 25 ESE BIL 15 SSW MLS 10 ENE GDV 20 W ISN 60 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 35 NNW TLH 25 NNE ABY 30 ENE MCN 10 WSW AGS 45 SSE CAE 40 SSW CRE ...CONT... 20 ESE JAX 30 NE GNV 15 WSW GNV 35 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 20 N DLH 35 ESE MSP 25 SE RST 25 ESE OTM 30 NW ALN 35 W EVV 25 SE OWB 50 S BNA 20 WSW CHA 10 S GSP 25 E CLT 15 NW GSB 25 NE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 E ALM 55 NNE 4CR 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 35 SSE GUC 45 NNE 4BL 30 NE BCE 50 SSW P38 65 NE TPH 35 NE U31 20 NNE ENV 40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70 NW OWY 50 SE BNO 25 NNW BNO 35 E RDM 25 SW RDM 55 SSE EUG 25 NNW OTH ...CONT... 30 NW CAR 40 E BML 20 SSE EEN 30 N BDR 20 NE TTN 35 N BWI 20 E LBE 10 NW FKL 55 N ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S GA...SRN SC AND NRN FL... ...NRN PLAINS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL MT SEWD THROUGH THE BIG HORNS OF WY THEN FARTHER SE THROUGH SERN WY. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS THE UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SUPPORTED BY INCREASING ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...SRN GA...NRN FL AND SRN SC... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM SRN GA INTO SRN SC WHERE PARTIAL SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SOME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO AOB 800 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE AS STORMS MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM S CNTRL GA EWD INTO SRN SC WHERE THE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ...SWRN TX... THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER SWRN TX WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY WITH HEIGHT IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 00:45:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 19:45:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506020055.j520sxZT021689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020052 SWODY1 SPC AC 020050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 35 SSE GFK 20 NW ATY 55 SSW MHE LBF 30 SW IML 15 WSW AKO 35 W SNY 25 N AIA 25 E RAP 40 S REJ 35 NW REJ 45 SE GDV 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 40 NNW CLL 40 E DAL 20 E PRX 35 NE TXK 45 N MLU 25 SW JAN 45 E LUL 20 S SEM 30 SSW ANB 25 E RMG 30 NE SPA 30 N FAY 40 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W INL 25 NNW BRD 25 SW RWF 20 ENE OLU 35 N RSL 10 WSW GCK 45 S LHX 30 S U17 25 N SGU 50 NNW P38 35 WSW ELY 60 NNW ELY 20 NNE ENV 40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70 NW OWY 50 SE BNO 35 WNW BNO 65 ENE RDM 50 WNW PDT 30 ENE EPH 30 N 63S ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 20 NNE LEB 25 SW EEN 10 E POU 30 E AVP 20 NE IPT BFD 30 NW JHW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AXIS IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORT THIS WITH A SLOWLY EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MT/NERN WY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS...SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE BY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS ND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH MORE DISCRETE STRUCTURES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...A PLUME OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN MOIST SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES MAY BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING INTENSIFIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE INABILITY TO TAP LOWER TERRAIN BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHIELD BENEATH CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE HAS GRADUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION SPREADS ENEWD. ...SERN U.S... EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMPLEX ELONGATING ZONE OF HIGH LEVEL VORTICITY FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...NNEWD INTO NRN GA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY HOLDING ALONG E-W BOUNDARY WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER FROM AL/GA BORDER INTO SRN SC. THIS MAY TEND TO KEEP ACTIVITY FOCUSED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGER EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/ERN TN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OR PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 05:58:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 00:58:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506020608.j5268ebP019153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020607 SWODY1 SPC AC 020605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE LAA LIC 40 WSW SNY 45 N IML 35 WNW BBW 30 SE BUB 35 SSE HSI 30 NW HUT 40 E DDC 35 SW GCK 45 NE LAA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 10 NW 9V9 45 SW ABR 45 NNW MBG 40 NW BIS 50 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MLB 20 S FMY ...CONT... 20 SSW CEW 30 N DHN 20 NW LGC 15 NNE ATL 15 WNW AGS CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE 81V 40 W GCC 45 SW BPI 15 N EVW 40 NNE VEL 25 NNW LAR 25 WSW CDR 25 SW PHP 30 WNW PHP 40 N RAP 15 ENE 81V ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 50 WSW RHI 40 SSW LSE 30 S ALO 10 ENE SZL 30 ESE SGF 20 N HOT 15 N ELD 20 SW GLH 35 S JBR 20 WNW MDH 30 SSE HUF 50 W LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... HUL 25 SE RUT 45 SE UCA 35 WNW SYR ...CONT... 25 NNE GLS 45 ESE CLL 35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 65 SW GDP 30 S ROW 40 SSW CVS 50 E TCC 20 W DHT 30 SE TAD 20 WNW RTN 15 ENE SAF 60 S GNT 55 SE SOW 30 S SOW INW 45 NNE INW 50 WSW FMN 15 WNW FMN 30 N DRO 40 S MTJ 30 WNW U17 25 SSE P38 30 ESE U31 25 E U31 70 SW BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 25 ESE DLN 10 SSW LVM 40 WNW 3HT 50 WSW GTF 40 E GEG 50 SE 4OM 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN CO INTO SRN NEB AND WRN/NRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN U.S.... ...PLAINS... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD. RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SFC FRONT WILL ELONGATE IN A N-S FASHION ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...SWWD INTO NERN CO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY THIS MORNING...NOTABLE INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER NWRN TX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AS FAR AS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AIRMASS TO RETURN ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 IN ECNTRL CO. STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO NERN CO WHERE DEEP ELY COMPONENT SHOULD EASILY ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BY 21Z BEFORE SPREADING EWD TOWARD SWRN NEB/WRN KS. IF DEW POINTS CAN HOLD NEAR 60 INTO THIS REGION AN AXIS OF SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG SHOULD EXTEND INTO NWRN KS BY 00Z AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. TORNADOES ARE LIKELY IN HIGHER MOISTURE ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW. IN ADDITION...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH TIME...AN ELONGATED COMPLEX MCS SHOULD EVOLVE BEFORE SPREADING INTO SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRY LINE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NWRN TX INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. VEERING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND SUFFICIENTLY COOL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S...VERY UNSTABLE PROFILES WILL DEVELOP WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. INCREASING LLJ WILL ALLOW DISCRETE STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS WRN OK BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENS LATE IN THE EVENING. WELL AFTER 06Z...STRONG SRN STEAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS SRN NM/FAR WEST TX. INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SYSTEM TO INCREASE SPEED AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO WEST TX FOR LATE NIGHT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FORCED LINE OF TSTMS COULD EASILY DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN U.S... 00Z GFS SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GA INTO NRN FL AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. EARLY THIS MORNING...MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAD SPREAD INLAND TO NEAR THE WEDGE FRONT OVER NRN GA/SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EPISODIC CONVECTIVE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE PERIOD...PEAKING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VEERED FLOW BUT SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR/MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL OR PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES WITH LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS AS LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 12:24:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 07:24:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506021234.j52CYa1c017314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021232 SWODY1 SPC AC 021231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC AKO 30 NW IML LBF HSI HUT END 45 NNE CSM GAG LBL LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 JMS 60 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CEW 30 N DHN 20 NW LGC 15 NNE ATL 15 WNW AGS CRE ...CONT... 10 SE MLB 20 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CDR 60 NE CDR 30 ENE PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 15 N EVW 40 NNE VEL 25 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 65 SW GDP 30 S ROW 40 SSW CVS 50 E TCC 20 W DHT 30 SE TAD 20 WNW RTN 15 ENE SAF 20 NW ONM 35 WNW SVC 30 S SOW 30 NNW SOW 50 WSW GUP 30 N GUP 10 S FMN 10 ESE CEZ 20 S 4BL 40 N PGA 25 SSE P38 30 ESE U31 25 E U31 70 SW BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 25 ESE DLN 10 SSW LVM 40 WNW 3HT 50 WSW GTF 40 E GEG 50 SE 4OM 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 45 NNW EAU 45 SSE RST 30 S ALO 10 ENE SZL 30 ESE SGF 20 N HOT 15 N ELD 20 SW GLH 35 S JBR 25 WNW MDH BMG 40 NW LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART ...CONT... 25 NNE GLS 45 ESE CLL 35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NEB...AND NORTHWEST OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM BAJA CA INTO PARTS OF NM/WEST TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB/NWRN OK... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BECOME WELL-DEFINED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KS...CURVING WESTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL CO. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. RATHER STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST CO BY AROUND 21Z. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO SOUTHWEST KS...AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS STORMS AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN KS AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OK. ...OK/TX DRYLINE... SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR MUCH OF TODAY...RESULTING IN HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DRYLINE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER WESTERN NM WHICH MAY APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND WEAK UVVS AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEB. THESE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CO. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED...BUT MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEB. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD/ND/MN. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER MS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THIS REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F...AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. LACK OF A CAP AND BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM AL ACROSS GA/SC AND NORTH FL. A FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 16:09:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 11:09:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506021619.j52GJbNd028678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021613 SWODY1 SPC AC 021612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC AKO 30 NW IML LBF HSI HUT END 45 NNE CSM GAG LBL LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 50 WSW FAR 70 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AYS 35 WSW VLD 15 S DHN 15 ENE TOI 35 NNW MCN 40 WSW AGS 40 NW CHS 10 E CHS 40 NE SSI 25 SSE AYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GLS 45 ESE CLL 35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 W CDR 60 NE CDR 30 ENE PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 15 N EVW 40 NNE VEL 25 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 70 E ELO 55 SSE DLH 40 ESE MSP 25 SW MCW 20 ENE MKC 15 ENE JLN 35 SE FSM 20 ESE TXK 35 SSW GLH 35 S JBR 20 N MDH 10 SSE BMG 25 WNW LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 50 NE PHX 15 S FMN 25 SE 4BL 45 SSW SGU 15 E DRA 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 S ROW 45 ENE ROW 40 ENE 4CR 25 NNE TCS 40 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NEB AND NORTHWEST OK...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY...A COUPLE IMPORTANT S/WVS WILL BE AFFECTING THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST GULF AIR IS STREAMING NWD THRU THE SRN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY RESIDE. WITH STRONG HEATING...PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB/NWRN OK... MORNING ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO NRN CO...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW IN SERN CO...N/NELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ERN CO. APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOTED ON WV/IR IMAGERY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AM...WILL DEEPEN SURFACE LOW SE CO AND INCREASE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NERN CO AND SWRN NEB. ALSO DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM LOW THRU THE TX PANHANDLE SEPARATING A AIR MASS TO THE E THAT WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 4000 J/KG AND A VERY WARM/DRY SWLY FLOW TO W OF DRY LINE. 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STRONG VEERING IN LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE BY TIME OF SURFACE INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON. VICINITY OF NERN CO WHERE UPSLOPE STRONGEST AND PROXIMITY OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL WIND MAX EXPECTED TO BE AREA OF INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THEY TAP INTO THE PLUME OF HIGH INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WRN KS THUS THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AFTER DARK AS THEY PROPAGATE INTO THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT DURING WITH THIS PROCESS INTO KS AND SRN NEB. ...OK/TX DRYLINE... RIDGING AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL BE ACROSS DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CAPPED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG HEATING BOTH SIDES OF DRY LINE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 60S F WILL CREATE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF DRY LINE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN MLCAPES TO NEAR 4000 J/KG. AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT VICINITY DRY LINE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SWD DOWN THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING POSSIBLY INTO SWRN TX AS THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING SRN BRANCH SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY. ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND A LESSER BUT STILL CHANCE OF TORNADOS. EFFECTS LATER TONIGHT OF S/WV FROM BAJA THAT WILL BE ENTERING SWRN TX UNCLEAR GIVEN THE CAP THAT WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. BUT MID LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT A MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS THAN NOW FORECASTED. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD TOWARD WRN MN BORDER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN DRIFTS WWD. SLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ENABLE MLCAPES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... REF MCD 1120 LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE WEAKENED PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS WARM SECTOR IN SERN STATES. HOWEVER WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE TO S OF SURFACE WEDGE E OF APPALACHIANS AND THE GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH AL/MS...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 20:13:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 15:13:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506022023.j52KNimc021406@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022012 SWODY1 SPC AC 022011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC 20 NW AKO 20 E SNY 25 NW LBF 10 W EAR 15 ENE RSL 35 SE P28 50 SSW P28 35 NW GAG 35 NW LBL LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 10 SSE AYS 20 WSW VLD 25 SE PFN ...CONT... 15 ESE PNS 45 NNW CEW 15 ENE MGM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AHN 15 SSW CAE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 50 WSW FAR 70 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 S ROW 45 ENE ROW 40 ENE 4CR 25 NNE TCS 40 SW DMN ...CONT... 85 SSE GBN 35 W SOW 15 S FMN 25 NW CEZ 35 SW BCE 20 S P38 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 25 W CDR 40 NNE CDR 20 N PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 25 ENE EVW 40 NNE VEL 45 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 80 E ELO 30 ESE MSP 30 SSE FOD 20 ESE MKC 30 SSW PGO 45 SSW TYR 30 S AUS 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 7R4 25 SE MLU 60 W MEM 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BMG 20 NW LUK 20 SW 5I3 35 E DAN 35 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN CO...WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN U.S.... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL KS NWWD TO JUST S OF HILL CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GOODLAND. THE ERN PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD THROUGH E CNTRL KS WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS PERSISTS. A SURFACE LOW WAS INDICATED OVER EXTREME SWRN KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TX. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN CO. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SWRN KS...ERN CO THROUGH WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF NWRN TX...WRN OK INTO SWRN KS TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED. CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED ACROSS SW KS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z RAOB FROM DDC. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH KS AND NEB THIS EVENING. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD THROUGH CO AND MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS ACROSS KS AND NEB LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...SERN STATES... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT FROM SRN AL...INTO SRN GA AND ERN SC. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SWRN TX... FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO WRN TX LATER TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 20:51:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 15:51:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506022101.j52L1jRv012681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022044 SWODY1 SPC AC 022042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 022045Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LAA 25 SW AKO 20 E SNY 25 NW LBF 10 W EAR 15 ENE RSL 35 SE P28 50 SSW P28 35 NW GAG 30 NW LBL 15 WNW LAA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 10 SSE AYS 20 WSW VLD 25 SE PFN ...CONT... 15 ESE PNS 45 NNW CEW 15 ENE MGM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AHN 15 SSW CAE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 20 W EHA 25 SW LHX 15 WSW PUB 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 50 WSW FAR 70 NNW GFK ...CONT... 10 NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 S ROW 45 ENE ROW 40 ENE 4CR 25 NNE TCS 40 SW DMN ...CONT... 85 SSE GBN 35 W SOW 15 S FMN 25 NW CEZ 35 SW BCE 20 S P38 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 25 W CDR 40 NNE CDR 20 N PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 25 ENE EVW 40 NNE VEL 45 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 80 E ELO 30 ESE MSP 30 SSE FOD 20 ESE MKC 30 SSW PGO 45 SSW TYR 30 S AUS 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 7R4 25 SE MLU 60 W MEM 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BMG 20 NW LUK 20 SW 5I3 35 E DAN 35 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN CO...WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN U.S.... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO GRAPHIC ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL KS NWWD TO JUST S OF HILL CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GOODLAND. THE ERN PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD THROUGH E CNTRL KS WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS PERSISTS. A SURFACE LOW WAS INDICATED OVER EXTREME SWRN KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TX. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN CO. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SWRN KS...ERN CO THROUGH WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF NWRN TX...WRN OK INTO SWRN KS TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED. CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED ACROSS SW KS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z RAOB FROM DDC. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH KS AND NEB THIS EVENING. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD THROUGH CO AND MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS ACROSS KS AND NEB LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...SERN STATES... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT FROM SRN AL...INTO SRN GA AND ERN SC. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SWRN TX... FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO WRN TX LATER TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 00:48:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 19:48:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506030057.j530vqPQ024153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030054 SWODY1 SPC AC 030053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LIC 40 SE AKO 10 SSE IML 30 NNE MCK 15 SSE EAR 20 NNE CNK 20 S SLN 20 NNW P28 30 NNW LBL 25 NNW LHX 15 S LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40 W EHA 25 SSW PUB COS 35 ENE DEN 15 SSW SNY 9V9 10 NNW HON 15 SW ATY 40 NE BKX 25 WSW RWF 15 SSE OTG 40 SSW SPW 30 S TOP 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40 E SJT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 35 W SOW 15 S FMN 25 NW CEZ 35 SW BCE 20 S P38 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30 E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 80 E ELO 30 ESE MSP 30 SSE FOD 20 ESE MKC 30 SSW PGO 45 SSW TYR 30 S AUS 25 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CDR 40 NNE CDR 20 N PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 55 SW COD 45 NE MLD EVW 40 WNW VEL 45 NNW LAR 25 W CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 7R4 25 SE MLU 60 W MEM 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BMG 20 NW LUK 20 SW 5I3 35 E DAN 35 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO...ACROSS MUCH OF KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX...NWD INTO SERN SD... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE SPREADING EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF ERN CO. FAVORABLE MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN EWD PROPAGATION INTO NWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO NRN KS SUGGESTS AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD WITH TIME BEGIN TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. DAMAGING SQUALL LINE MAY EMERGE OVER NCNTRL KS BY 06Z AS RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REORIENTS ITSELF ACROSS THIS PORTION OF KS. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG ACROSS ECNTRL CO INTO WRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION STRUGGLED ALONG DRY LINE SURGE INTO SWRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO MAY INDUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH COULD SPREAD BACK INTO THIS PORTION OF KS LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK LATE. ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEFINED IN BOTH WV AND NOW MORE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY...PER THICKENING CONVECTION WITHIN BROADENING BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE FROM SWRN NM INTO NRN MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTENSIFYING/EXPANDING SOUTH OF ELP INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. WITH TIME SELY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TX ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND NEWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE FROM SOUTH OF MAF...NEWD TOWARD LBB LATER THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 05:50:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 00:50:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506030600.j5360QoG012767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030557 SWODY1 SPC AC 030556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 SSE LBB 25 ESE AMA 20 ESE DHT 30 NNW RTN 30 SW COS 30 WSW LIC 50 W GLD 10 WSW MCK 20 SE BUB 25 N OFK 40 E SUX 35 NNW DSM 20 NNW IRK 40 WSW JEF 40 ESE SGF 30 N HOT 15 N TXK TYR 25 SSE AUS 60 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAR 35 N BGR 25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW CDR 20 SSW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 40 WSW CPR 20 ENE RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 WSW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 55 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE 7R4 45 SW POE 50 S LFK PSX 10 S NIR 30 W MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 35 W INK 35 NW HOB 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 SW INW 25 SSE GCN 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM SERN NEB/SWRN IA TO SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT TO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30 M TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY 04/00Z. MORE SPECIFICALLY THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES OF CONCERN THAT SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD...1) EJECTING NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 2) CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. SRN MOST SHORTWAVE IS WELL DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR ELP...SWD INTO CNTRL MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS TX/OK EARLY WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. GFS IS QUICKER MOVING THIS FEATURE EAST OF I-35...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SURGED WEST OF MAF. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z. IT APPEARS MULTIPLE CLUSTERS...OR PERHAPS AN ELONGATED MCS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM NEAR CDS TO JCT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PROPAGATING ENEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/NRN TX INTO SRN OK BY MID DAY. ALTHOUGH OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. STORM MODE/EVOLUTION WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POTENTIAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NWRN TX. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK FOR REDEVELOPMENT BENEATH MODERATE MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW. IF SO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER NW INTO SERN CO...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CO. IT APPEARS 50S DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY PEAK HEATING. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 21-00Z NORTH OF WEAK SFC LOW. STRONG VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL LEND TO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO SWRN KS. MODELS INSIST LLJ WILL INCREASE AND FOCUS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST THINKING IS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS SFC FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE EAST ACROSS KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 12:34:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 07:34:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506031244.j53CiMY8005464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031232 SWODY1 SPC AC 031231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 SSE LBB 25 SSW AMA 20 SSE CAO PUB 35 NW COS DEN 35 SSE AKO 25 WSW MCK 30 NE ANW 40 WSW ABR 55 NNE ATY RWF 30 ENE FOD 20 NNW IRK 40 WSW JEF 40 ESE SGF 30 N HOT 15 N TXK TYR 25 SSE AUS 60 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAR 35 N BGR 25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW CDR 20 SSW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 40 WSW CPR 20 ENE RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 WSW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 55 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 35 W INK 35 NW HOB 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE 7R4 45 SW POE 50 S LFK 60 NNE VCT 25 NNE NIR 10 E MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/TX. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES...IT APPEARS THAT PARTS OF THIS REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY. ...TX/OK TODAY... BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX INTO WESTERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL STILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTH TX AND MUCH OF OK. STORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...AND WESTERN AR BY EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. IF POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING CAN DEVELOP...TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED. ...TX PNHDL/WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION APPEAR LIKELY TO LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING OVER WESTERN OK TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THE CONDITION OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS SUSPECT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AFFECT OF MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. IF THESE CONDITIONS CAN DEVELOP...AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD EXIST WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK DURING THE EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THIS AREA AS EVOLUTION OF MORNING CONVECTION BECOMES APPARENT. ...ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON... NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE WESTWARD IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION BY MID AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE DEN AREA. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDING IN CENTRAL CO APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...NEB/IA/SD/MN... OVERNIGHT MCS REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST KS AND WESTERN IA. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN-COOLED AND STABLE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD DESTABILIZE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WARM ADVECTION ATOP REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...FL... VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THIS REGION TODAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM OVER CUBA. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS OR A FEW TORNADOES. WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE AT 1630Z IF TRENDS SUGGEST GREATER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 16:42:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 11:42:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506031652.j53GqM9r027773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031650 SWODY1 SPC AC 031649 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 SW BWD 40 SSW SPS 45 SSE LBB 40 W EHA PUB 20 SE DEN 20 E FCL 35 E CYS 55 NNE BUB 10 S BIS 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 70 N GFK 50 WNW AXN 15 NE BKX 30 NNW IRK JEF 40 E HRO 20 E SHV 50 ESE LFK 30 NE GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S FMY 20 NW AGR 15 NW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 55 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 25 SW P07 45 SSE MAF 45 N MAF 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EPM 20 SW BGR 25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 10 SW DGW 25 WSW CDR 15 SW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NEWD OUT SERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ND SWD INTO KS AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH...BUT SURFACE PATTERN WAS GENERALLY CHAOTIC AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ...TX/OK... BAND OF STORMS FROM NWRN TX SWD INTO CENTRAL TX WERE MOVING EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF NM TROUGH. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED AT MID MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK AND CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX AS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING AND HEATING AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT DEEP LATER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS SRN TX IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS MAIN FORCING WILL LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE LESS VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN CAP. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO WLY AND BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO IF SURFACE BASED STORMS DO DEVELOP...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION HAVE SO FAR LIMITED HEATING...THOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SPREAD IN...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NORTH OF LBB AND IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO EJECT EWD INTO WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THESE STORMS EVOLVE ...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND A 45 KT WLY LEVEL MID WIND MAX WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ...ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON... NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DEEP EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW STRONGER HEATING SOME UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...FORCING AHEAD OF UTAH TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ...NEB/IA/SD/ND... CLOUDS HAVE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR POCKETS OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...FL... THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA. THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THIS CONVECTION IS UNSTABLE AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ...NRN FL PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SC... AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WIDESPREAD AND EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..IMY/GUYER.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 20:12:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 15:12:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506032022.j53KM1YY026859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032015 SWODY1 SPC AC 032014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 NNE JCT 25 N BWD 65 SW SPS 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 30 ENE CAO 30 NW TAD 20 W COS 25 NW DEN 20 NNE FCL 55 NNE BUB 65 E ANW 25 N 9V9 50 WNW ABR 30 SSE BIS 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 60 W RRT 35 NE FAR 20 NNE BKX 35 NNW IRK JEF 40 E HRO 20 E SHV 40 WSW POE 25 S BPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30 WSW ORL DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 55 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 20 SE P07 45 W SJT 25 NW BGS 50 WSW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EPM 20 SW BGR 25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 10 SW DGW 25 WSW CDR 15 SW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN FL... ...OK AND TX THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY... LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS SLOWING THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS OVER CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NERN TX. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME RECOVERY...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM PARTS OF NRN TX THROUGH OK THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THROUGH OK AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING ACROSS WRN OK...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY EWD THROUGH OK AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN TX AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO SELY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING VORT MAX...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. ...CO AND KS... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. E OF THE MOUNTAINS...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW EXIST. HOWEVER...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AND WIDESPREAD CIRRUS ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY TO AOB 1000 J/KG. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD INTO WRN KS OR SWRN NEB TONIGHT. ...FL... ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AND S FL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...ND... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND ALONG AND E OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 00:50:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 19:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506040100.j5410Tq0024344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040058 SWODY1 SPC AC 040056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW AKO 50 WSW GLD 40 NNW GCK CNK 30 NE MKC 20 ESE SZL SGF 40 SSW JLN GAG 20 SSE CAO 15 ESE RTN 35 SSW PUB 20 ESE FCL 15 NNW AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 W ATL 40 SE CSV 25 SSE LEX 50 E LUK 45 ESE PKB 25 ENE SSU 30 ESE LYH 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE INL 20 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO DYR 35 E MLU 40 WSW POE 55 S CLL 20 ENE HDO 40 SSE JCT 20 NW BWD 10 NNE CDS 30 NW AMA 25 ESE ABQ 25 N SOW 10 NE FLG 40 ENE GCN 30 NNE CNY 40 NNW CAG 20 ESE DGW 65 SSE 81V 35 ESE 81V 35 WNW REJ 35 N 4BQ 65 N SHR 40 E COD 45 SE IDA 40 NNW TWF 50 NNW BOI 30 NNE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SRN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS OK INTO SCNTRL KS...EXTENDING FROM A VORT CENTER NEAR ICT...SEWD TO NEAR TXK. STRONGEST CONVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SERN KS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF AND OUN SEEM TO BE MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF WARM SECTOR WITH A NARROW WEDGE OF REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS NOSING INTO SERN KS...ROUGHLY 7 C/KM. ALTHOUGH ABSOLUTE VALUES OF INSTABILITY ARE NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO BY LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES MAY BE OBSERVED WITH STRONGER STORMS. UPSTREAM...AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM ADAMS COUNTY CO...SWD TO OTERO COUNTY CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AS FAVORABLE SELY INFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DDC SUGGESTS MINIMAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SWRN KS DOWNSTREAM...BUT STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS WRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS LATER TONIGHT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN MAINTAINING EWD PROPAGATION/NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK LATER TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL TX... CENTRAL TX CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE ESCARPMENT...EXTENDING INTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT. IN ALL LIKLIHOOD FORCING APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 05:56:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 00:56:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506040606.j5466La8004302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040603 SWODY1 SPC AC 040601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MKT 30 S RST 25 SSE ALO 40 SSE OTM 25 W COU 25 SSW UMN 25 ESE MKO OKC 25 SW END 20 WNW SLN 25 SSE YKN 25 N OTG 25 ESE MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 45 N SJT 50 SSE CDS 35 SE GAG 40 SE DDC 10 SSW EAR 50 SSW MHE 25 WNW ATY 40 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40 E DLH 40 NE RHI 35 ENE GRB 20 SSE CGX 15 NE DEC 60 NW CGI 45 WNW HOT 45 WNW AUS 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 15 W MLS 10 E SHR 45 SE WRL 45 N RWL 25 ESE FCL 20 WSW AKO 40 SE SNY 15 NNW MHN 30 ENE MBG 70 NW DVL ...CONT... 25 SE P07 20 SSW CDS 15 SW GAG 30 SSW DDC 35 SW GCK 40 NNW EHA 35 NE CAO 35 WSW DHT 45 NW TCC 20 NE SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG 50 ENE SUN 45 W BTM 30 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CLE 25 SW PKB 20 ESE PSK 25 E DAN 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV 15 W MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/IA...SWD INTO OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ARE FROM SWRN TX INTO MN/WI... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY... LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WV/RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS KS TOWARD IA...AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SECONDARY UPSTREAM FEATURE IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN DUE TO TIMING OF UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX...ROUGHLY 70KT...LOCATED OVER SRN NV...IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NRN AZ. MODELS SUGGEST THIS SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NWRN OK/CNTRL KS BY 05/00Z. DESPITE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SHARPENING DRY LINE/FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NOTED FROM SFC LOW OVER ERN NEB...SWWD INTO NWRN OK. THIS SHOULD FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR POTENTIAL EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST THINKING IS ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY OVER ERN KS/WRN MO WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REORIENT ITSELF ACROSS SRN MN/WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY AS MCS DEBRIS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION. OF MORE INTEREST IS THE MARITIME AIRMASS THAT HAS BEGUN TO SURGE NWD ACROSS TX INTO SRN OK. AT 05Z THIS MORNING...SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F HAD RETURNED TO THIS REGION...AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW THIS AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS/MO INTO POSSIBLY EXTREME SERN NEB/SWRN IA BEFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE FROM SERN NEB...SWWD INTO SWRN TX. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS WRN OK...SWWD...WITH AN AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO NERN KS. SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY RANGE FROM 3000-4000 J/KG ALONG THIS ZONE BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY PEAK HEATING AS PARCELS EASILY REACH THEIR LFC WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY. STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND TIMING OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS A BROAD ZONE LATITUDINALLY FROM EAST OF THE SFC LOW...SWD INTO WCNTRL TX. ASIDE FROM HIGHER BASED STRUCTURES ACROSS SWRN TX...MOIST-SHEARED PROFILES FROM OK NWD SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...EXPERIMENTAL TECHNIQUES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOPY SQUALL LINE FROM WRN IA ACROSS MO INTO NERN OK BY 06Z. SRN EXTENT OF MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION OF THE SRN PLAINS WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL IMPINGE ON SWD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY OVER OK. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE EWD-PROGRESSING MCS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING INTO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FARTHER EAST. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 11:04:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 06:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506041114.j54BE9AR025302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041109 SWODY1 SPC AC 041108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30 SSE SUX 25 S FOD P35 20 WNW SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP BIE. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MKT 25 WSW RST ALO IRK 25 W COU UMN MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25 WSW OTG MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 45 N SJT LTS P28 RSL MCK LBF ANW 35 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40 E DLH 40 NE RHI 35 ENE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX TPL 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 20 SSW CDS 15 SW GAG 30 SSW DDC 35 SW GCK 40 NNW EHA 35 NE CAO 35 WSW DHT 45 NW TCC 20 NE SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG 50 ENE SUN 45 W BTM 30 NW CTB ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 15 W MLS 10 E SHR 45 SE WRL 45 N RWL 25 ESE FCL 20 WSW AKO 40 SE SNY 15 NNW MHN 15 NE MBG 60 NE MOT ...CONT... 35 ENE CLE 25 SW PKB 20 ESE PSK 25 E DAN 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV 15 W MSS. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA...EASTERN KS...AND WESTERN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN OK NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MN/WI... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TWO WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING THROUGH THIS REGION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS NOW OVER NORTHWEST MO AND WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE THIS EVENING. ...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OK/TX AND WESTERN AR...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF KS/MO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT STEADILY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP TRANSPORT MARITIME AIR MASS NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NEB AND IA BY MID AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS REGION AFTER MORNING CLOUDS ERODE...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS. EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IA AND WESTERN MO DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS...AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. COMBINATION OF VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND EXTREME INSTABILITY INDICATE THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ...OK/TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING DUE TO LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. ...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD/MN... MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN NEB THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS PROGD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF MN THIS EVENING. ..HART/BANACOS.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 15:46:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 10:46:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506041556.j54FuHZ7017667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041552 SWODY1 SPC AC 041551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30 SSE SUX 30 NNW DSM 40 NE P35 25 NNE SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP BIE. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MSP 40 NE RST 45 W LNR 10 S MLI COU UMN 10 S MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25 WSW OTG 15 SSE MSP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 65 NW ABI 25 NNW LTS P28 RSL MCK LBF ANW 35 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40 E DLH 40 NE RHI 35 ENE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX TPL 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 10 WNW BGS 15 E CDS 45 W CSM 25 SSE LBL 20 SE EHA 25 NE DHT 35 WSW DHT 35 NW TCC 20 NE SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG 50 ENE SUN 45 W BTM 30 NW CTB ...CONT... 25 ESE OLF 40 N MLS 10 E SHR 40 WSW GCC 35 S GCC 30 SSE 81V 30 ENE REJ 20 NNW DIK 25 S ISN 25 ESE OLF ...CONT... 55 NNE CLE 20 WNW MGW 40 E EKN 15 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV 15 W MSS. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA...EASTERN KS...AND WESTERN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN OK NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MN/WI... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SCENARIO OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES INTO PLAINS TODAY. TWO IMPORTANT S/WV TROUGHS WILL PLAY A ROLE... WITH EJECTING IMPULSE MOVING NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONGER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE SURFACE FEATURES THIS MORNING HAVE SEVERAL WEAK LOWS...BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT A LOW MOVING NWD THRU SRN MN AND ANOTHER LOW KS/OK BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. ...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OK/TX AND WESTERN AR...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TIED TO S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP TRANSPORT MARITIME AIR MASS NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NEB AND IA BY MID AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS REGION AFTER MORNING CLOUDS ERODE...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TEMPORARILY PROVIDING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS. EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IA AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS...AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. COMBINATION OF VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND EXTREME INSTABILITY INDICATE THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ...OK/TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES PUSHING 4000 J/KG. PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO AT LEAST AS FAR S AS N CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...PROXIMITY TO MID AND UPPER JET AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... AS LEAD S/WV TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SWLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES. WITH S/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO E OF MN SURFACE LOW ONLY QUESTION AS TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN DURING AFTERNOON ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SURFACE LOW EWD INTO WI. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. CONSIDERED EXTENDING MDT RISK INTO WI...HOWEVER TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO DO SO ATTM. ...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD/MN... WITH APPROACH OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS S/WV ALONG WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS PROGD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF MN THIS EVENING. ...A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:00:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:00:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506042010.j54KA1n5027667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042004 SWODY1 SPC AC 042003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30 SSE SUX 30 NNW DSM 40 NE P35 25 NNE SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP BIE. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MSP 40 NE RST 45 W LNR 10 S MLI COU UMN 10 S MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25 WSW OTG 15 SSE MSP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 65 NW ABI 20 NNW LTS 25 SW P28 50 NE LAA 50 SW IML 55 SW MHN ANW 55 WSW AXN 20 N BRD 15 WSW DLH 25 NNW RHI 40 NE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX ACT 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM CBM HOP SDF IND 25 S DNV MTO 60 NW CGI HOT TYR AUS 65 W COT ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 20 ESE BGS 15 E CDS 45 W CSM 25 SSE LBL 20 SE EHA 60 NNW LVS FMN 40 W PGA CDC SLC PIH BTM 55 NNE FCA ...CONT... 15 WNW CLE 40 ENE EKN 50 SW RIC 35 WNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OLF 40 N MLS 10 E SHR 40 WSW GCC 35 S GCC 30 SSE 81V 30 ENE REJ 20 NNW DIK 25 S ISN 25 ESE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PWM 15 S CON 25 S EEN 15 S PSF 20 WSW ALB 45 NE UCA 35 E MSS. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS NEWD INTO IA AND SERN/MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TH SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED IN WRN NEB AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN FAR NERN NEB BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AND SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED AT MID AFTERNOON IN SERN SD...SWRN NEB AND NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER NEAR LBL. ...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO... A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND WILL OVERSPREAD SERN NEB AND SWRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP LAPSES RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH 18Z SOUNDINGS AT TOP AND OMA INDICATED A WEAK CAP REMAINS ...JET MAX MOVING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF NEB TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPWARD MOTION TO LIFT CAPPING INVERSION. STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND MOST LIKELY STORM INITIATION IS ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT AT MID AFTERNOON EXTENDED NEAR A LWD-SLN-HUT LINE. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...WRN/SRN IA AND WRN/NRN MO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 391. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS PLUS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ALSO...20 KT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND A DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ...OK/TX... AT 19Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED WEST OF LBL WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN OK TO EAST OF A CDS-FST LINE IN WRN TX. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE OKC 18Z SOUNDING...EXPECT DRYLINE ONLY TO MIX EWD TO NEAR A P28-50W OKC-ABI LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 4000-5000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NWD...INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. ALSO...RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...AS LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN TX/OK OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NERN IL AND ERN WI. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MN AND WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NWD INTO MN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING INSTABILITY...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AND VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP OVER NEB/IA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AT THAT TIME. ...CENTRAL AND WRN NEB/EASTERN SD... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NEB AND WILL SPREAD ENEWD ALONG TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH INTO NERN NEB AND SERN SD TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN ACROSS KS AND SERN NEB...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN NEB/ REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 390. ..IMY.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 05:45:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 00:45:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506050556.j555ueJ2032037@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050554 SWODY1 SPC AC 050553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 35 ENE FWA 20 SE SBN 40 WSW MKG 15 NNW MSN 25 NNW VOK 25 WNW RHI 25 NNW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE CMH 10 NW LEX 15 S CKV 10 NW MEM 40 SE PRX 25 E SEP 25 ENE SJT 25 W MAF 45 WNW PVW 15 SSW AMA 45 WNW CSM 20 SSW END 35 SSW SZL 35 W UIN 20 ENE CID 25 S MSP 65 ENE STC 30 E DLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HVR 30 SSE 3HT 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW P07 35 NW INK 50 SSW CVS 35 NNE CVS 25 W AMA 50 SW GAG 40 WNW END 30 ESE EMP 25 WNW OJC FNB 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW LFT 35 WNW POE 20 WSW LFK 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 50 N BIL 25 NNW LND 45 NNE PUC 75 ENE TPH 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 80 NE SVE 60 NE 4LW 55 WSW S80 40 WSW S06 75 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA 20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES... ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORT MAX OVER NERN NEB...LIFTING ENEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL SURGE EWD...ARCING FROM NRN MN...INTO ERN IA EARLY...BEFORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS WI. EARLY MORNING MCS WILL PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL INTO LOWER MI WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING UNTIL AROUND 18Z WHEN COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE AID DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION...AND WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S...FAST MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERS AS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE...BOW LIKE STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE. FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING PORTIONS OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BRUSH CNTRL IL/IND REGION FORCING SW-NE ORIENTED DEEP LAYER CONFLUENCE ZONE INTO THESE STATES. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO EXTREME WRN KY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A BIT WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH...REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS REGION SHOULD HAVE LESS CONTAMINATION FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND THUS DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S/SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES FARTHER NORTH WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...SRN PLAINS... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN OK/NWRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AND IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY AT PEAK HEATING. THIS RESPONSE IS LIKELY DUE TO WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN NV...MOVING ESEWD INTO NRN AZ AT 05Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD APPROACH THE SRN PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHERE EXTREME INSTABILITY...SBCAPE VALUES AOA 4000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AFTER 21Z. STRONG SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS NWRN TX WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO EASILY REACH THEIR LFC WITH ANY EXCUSE FOR CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH TSTM CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE AND DRIFT SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. ...NRN ROCKIES... QUITE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. LATER TODAY...EXTENDING ACROSS WRN MT INTO ID BY MID AFTERNOON. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG EWD-SURGING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS ZONE WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST-MOVING ROBUST TSTMS. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR/FORCING SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 11:56:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 06:56:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506051207.j55C7LO0001163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051204 SWODY1 SPC AC 051203 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL MIE LAF 40 WSW MKG OSH 30 ESE RHI 35 NW IMT 15 NE MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HVR 30 SSE 3HT 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE ZZV LOZ 40 S BNA MEM DUA SPS 55 SSW CDS 40 ENE PVW 45 WNW CSM BVO JLN 25 NW ALN RFD MSP 60 SW DLH 30 E DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 45 S P28 30 ESE EMP 25 WNW OJC FNB 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW LFT 35 WNW POE 20 WSW LFK 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HVR 50 SE LWT 30 NW RKS 45 NNE PUC 75 ENE TPH 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 80 NE SVE 60 NE 4LW 55 WSW S80 40 WSW S06 75 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA 20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN WI...MUCH OF UPPER AND LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...AND NORTHWEST OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHWEST TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MT AND ID... ...ERN WI/ERN UPPER AND LOWER MI/NRN IND/NRN OH... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO STRETCH FROM LOW NEAR DLH...SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE TODAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG FROM UPPER MI ACROSS EASTERN WI AND LOWER MI. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WI OR LAKE MI...SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER/LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND/OH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES /DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OVER 200 M2/S2/ OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND THE EASTERN UP...PRIMARILY WITH STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF FRONT. ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE QUICKLY INTO A SQUALL LINE POSING A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN MN/WRN WI/WRN UPPER MI... MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THIS REGION. PRESENCE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LOW MAY ALSO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL OH/IND INTO PARTS OF KY/TN. THIS AREA WILL BECOME MODERATELY/VERY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY A WEAK CAP...WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ...OK/AR/TX... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX...IN LOCALIZED WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OK/AR. SUFFICIENT HEATING AND A WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL BE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ...ID/MT... POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ARCING FROM NORTHERN CA INTO EASTERN ORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF ID/MT BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF ID AND WESTERN MT. STRONG WINDS FIELDS ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 16:17:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 11:17:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506051628.j55GSssW011362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051624 SWODY1 SPC AC 051622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 S MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25 NW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HVR 30 SSE 3HT 25 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL 40 S BNA MEM 30 SSW DUA 35 N ABI 50 N BGS 15 WSW PVW 35 NW LTS BVO JLN 40 NW ALN 35 W DBQ MSP 60 SW DLH 30 E DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 45 S P28 30 ESE EMP 15 SSE OJC 10 SE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HVR 50 SE LWT 30 NW RKS 45 NNE PUC 25 NNW MLF 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 75 WNW WMC 55 S BNO 55 WSW S80 35 N PUW 45 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA 20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NORTHERN IND AND NORTHWEST OH...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHWEST TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID..... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE A LARGE COLD UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PAC NW THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHARP S/WV TROUGH/VORT MAX ON NEB/IA BORDER MOVES NEWD ACROSS WI BY THIS EVENING WHICH COUPLED WITH THE ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX PROVIDES FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD THRU WRN IA THEN SWWD PLAINS TO SRN TX PANHANDLE. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVING TOWARD LS BY THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY. IN THE PAC NW A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY VICINITY WRN ID BORDER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS WRN MT SWD INTO NRN NV THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT WRN MT WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER SYSTEM TO THE W. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER NEARLY FULL HEATING ALONG WITH MIXING FROM THE INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER MS VALLEY SYSTEM EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS FROM WI/IL EWD. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARDS FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG WI AREA TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER LOWER OH VALLEY TO LWR MI WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE. AS SURFACE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND CAP WEAKENS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH FROM ERN IA NWD TO WRN LS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT COUPLED WITH SOME BACKING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS WI/UPPER MI IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE DEEPENING SUPPORT AN INCREASING SUPERCELL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEGINNING ACROSS WI AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF MI BY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS A FEW TORNADOS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE MORE LINEAR LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO BOWS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS DRIVEN BY INCREASING WINDS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS WI INTO MI. ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STORM INITIATION...MODE WILL AT FIRST BE CELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM NRN IND INTO LWR MI WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. ...MID MS VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS... UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE FRONTAL ZONE AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXISTS. STRONG HEATING AND AVAILABILITY OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING. MLCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARDS FROM 3000 J/KG MID MS VALLEY TO POSSIBLY NEAR 4000 J/KG WRN/NWRN TX. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY OLD BOUNDARIES/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHILE SUPER CELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...THEY SHOULD BE RATHER DISORGANIZED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AREA WILL SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE. ...MT/ID... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AIR MASS LOWER LEVELS IN WARM SECTOR IS SHORT ON MOISTURE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INVERTED VEE TYPE SOUNDINGS. HIGHER THREAT OF HAIL AND POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS WRN MT AS SHEAR INCREASES AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 19:55:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 14:55:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506052006.j55K6aA8032305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052003 SWODY1 SPC AC 052002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 NNW MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25 NW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 50 S S06 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL BNA MKL LIT 25 NNE ABI 50 ESE LBB 30 WSW CDS 35 NNE CSM 25 NW BVO 30 ESE VIH 40 WNW SPI 20 WSW MCW 35 WNW MSP 35 NE BRD 45 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 30 SSW P28 30 SSW SZL 25 NNW SZL 10 ENE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC ...CONT... 45 NNE GGW 45 W 4BQ 55 WSW LAR GJT MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC BNO LWS GEG 45 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID..... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... AT 19Z...STORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NRN IA/ERN MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS LOCATED IN SERN MN TOWARD. DIURNAL HEATING HAD RESULTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 405. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WI AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPPER VORT MAX IN SERN MN MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA. ...MI/IN/NWRN OH... STRONG HEATING EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAD DEVELOPED IN LOWER MI AT MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/ SHEAR SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 404. AN MCV IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH NRN IL AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN IN INTO EXTREME ERN IL. THE FAST MOTION OF THE MCV AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IN AND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406 ...MID MS/TN VALLEYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS... SEVERE CONVECTION IS LESS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HELP TO INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NWRN TX/SWRN OK NEWD INTO NERN OK. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN NWRN TX AND MLCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...MT/ID... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MT AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...ISOLATED STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL LA... MCV NORTH OF HOU IS MOVING NEWD AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SEA BREEZE PLUS STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ..IMY.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 20:13:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:13:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506052024.j55KOVYw006669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052015 SWODY1 SPC AC 052014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 NNW MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25 NW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 50 S S06 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL BNA MKL LIT 25 NNE ABI 50 ESE LBB 30 WSW CDS 35 NNE CSM 25 NW BVO 30 ESE VIH 40 WNW SPI 20 WSW MCW 35 WNW MSP 35 NE BRD 45 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 30 SSW P28 30 SSW SZL 25 NNW SZL 10 ENE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC ...CONT... 45 NNE GGW 45 W 4BQ 55 WSW LAR GJT MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC BNO LWS GEG 45 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID..... CORRECTED TO CHANGE WATCH TYPE IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... AT 19Z...STORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NRN IA/ERN MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS LOCATED IN SERN MN TOWARD. DIURNAL HEATING HAD RESULTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WI AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPPER VORT MAX IN SERN MN MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA. ...MI/IN/NWRN OH... STRONG HEATING EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAD DEVELOPED IN LOWER MI AT MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/ SHEAR SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 404. AN MCV IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH NRN IL AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN IN INTO EXTREME ERN IL. THE FAST MOTION OF THE MCV AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IN AND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406 ...MID MS/TN VALLEYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS... SEVERE CONVECTION IS LESS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HELP TO INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NWRN TX/SWRN OK NEWD INTO NERN OK. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN NWRN TX AND MLCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...MT/ID... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MT AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...ISOLATED STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL LA... MCV NORTH OF HOU IS MOVING NEWD AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SEA BREEZE PLUS STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ..IMY.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 22:09:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 17:09:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506052220.j55MKE90015278@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052216 SWODY1 SPC AC 052214 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 NNW MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25 NW MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 50 S S06 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL BNA MKL LIT 25 NNE ABI 50 ESE LBB 30 WSW CDS 35 NNE CSM 25 NW BVO 30 ESE VIH 40 WNW SPI 20 WSW MCW 35 WNW MSP 35 NE BRD 45 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 30 SSW P28 30 SSW SZL 25 NNW SZL 10 ENE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC ...CONT... 45 NNE GGW 45 W 4BQ 55 WSW LAR GJT MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC BNO LWS GEG 45 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID..... CORRECTED TO CHANGE WATCH TYPE IN FIRST PARAGRAPH AND WORDING IN THE MID MS VLY PARAGRAPH ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... AT 19Z...STORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NRN IA/ERN MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT WAS LOCATED IN SERN MN TOWARD. DIURNAL HEATING HAD RESULTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WI AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPPER VORT MAX IN SERN MN MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA. ...MI/IN/NWRN OH... STRONG HEATING EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAD DEVELOPED IN LOWER MI AT MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/ SHEAR SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 404. AN MCV IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH NRN IL AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN IN INTO EXTREME ERN IL. THE FAST MOTION OF THE MCV AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IN AND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406 ...MID MS/TN VALLEYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS... SEVERE CONVECTION IS LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HELP TO INITIATE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NWRN TX/SWRN OK NEWD INTO NERN OK. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN NWRN TX AND MLCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...MT/ID... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MT AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...ISOLATED STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL LA... MCV NORTH OF HOU IS MOVING NEWD AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SEA BREEZE PLUS STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ..IMY/RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 00:50:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 19:50:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506060101.j5611OKr007101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060058 SWODY1 SPC AC 060057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 WSW SLC 15 WNW ENV 45 NE SUN 25 N 3DU 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW JHW 30 NNE HTS 50 ENE LEX 30 NW SDF 20 NW BMG 35 WSW FWA 40 NNW FWA 15 NNW AZO 40 SW MKG 30 SSW MKE 30 NNE LNR 15 SW VOK 65 N EAU 95 NNW CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE MRF 45 ESE GDP 40 NNW HOB 45 WSW AMA 30 N END 30 SW BVO 20 NW MLC 35 SSW MLC 25 ENE SPS 55 SSW SJT 10 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT LFK 25 NNE TYR 20 SE FTW 55 NW AUS 55 WSW COT ...CONT... 65 S MRF 10 E GDP 50 N ROW 25 NNE DHT 30 SW ICT 30 SE SZL 30 WSW STL 15 NNW MTO 35 N DNV 25 SW CGX 20 SE DBQ 25 S RST 35 WNW MSP 25 NE HIB 20 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW 45 S GDV 55 ESE REJ 30 SSW PHP 15 SE CDR 20 ESE CYS 55 ENE CAG 30 NNE U28 MLF 45 S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC 70 ESE 4LW BNO 50 SSE RDM 30 NNW LMT 15 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE JAX 55 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PBG 20 SSW AOO 30 SSW BLF 35 WNW SOP 20 SE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CNTRL/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES... ...CNTRL/UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE CONGEALED INTO A SQUALL LINE. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM EXHIBITS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPES. GIVEN THAT THE WIND PROFILE IS LARGELY WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THE COLUMN AND THE WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...LEADING EDGE OF THE TSTMS COULD BOW AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OH AND ERN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...TRACK OF A RESIDUAL MCV APPEARS TO BE TRAVELING THROUGH CNTRL LOWER MI. AMBIENT VORTICITY PRESENT IN A LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN LOWER MI COULD CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF TORNADOGENESIS WITH THESE CELLS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. UPSTREAM...VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH PARENT UPPER CYCLONE WAS SHIFTING ENEWD FROM ERN WI TOWARD UPPER AND NWRN LOWER MI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEDGE OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUGGESTS STORMS COULD MAINTAIN IDENTITY THROUGH THE EVENING. VARIOUS BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS WITHIN A VORTICITY RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS... TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO THRIVE IN SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...NAMELY SWRN OK...TX S PLAINS AND SWRN TX HIGHER TERRAIN. FLOW REGIME IS FAVORABLE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY SUPERCELL STORMS WITH SPLIT POTENTIAL. SO FAR...THE STORM OVER SWRN OK HAS REMAINED DISCRETE WITH NO COMPETITION FROM NEARBY STORMS. THE STORMS ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS HAVE BECOME RATHER RANDOM WITH MANY INTERACTIONS/ANVIL SEEDING CONTRIBUTING TO WIDE DISTRIBUTION OF SEVERE THREATS. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL. BUT...GIVEN A STRONG DEVIANT RIGHT MOTION...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PRIND THAT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE/LLJ INTENSIFIES...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO SMALL MCS/S AND LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF W TX INTO SWRN OK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/HEAT BURSTS. ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...1000-1500 MLCAPE AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE CELLS MAY LAST INTO LATE EVENING...BUT APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DIURNAL AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AS PAC NW UPPER LOW SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD...SPEED MAXIMA WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS OF TSTMS ROTATING NEWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN/NRN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE LOW...BACKING LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOOPY LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER MS VLY... REMNANT MCV/LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SABINE/LOWER MS VLYS THIS EVENING. TSTMS SEEMED TO PREFER THE INSTABILITY ALONG THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS FEATURE DURING PEAK HEATING WITH ATTENDANT MICROBURST/HAIL THREATS. SCENARIO SEEMS CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS TO RETRACT BACK TOWARD THE NUCLEUS OF THE IMPULSE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..RACY.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 05:38:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 00:38:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506060549.j565nB4x015767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060547 SWODY1 SPC AC 060545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 45 WNW CVS 30 W EHA 20 N GCK 40 S DDC 40 NW CDS 15 NNW BGS 25 SSW P07. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 20 N JMS 30 N RWF 35 NE OTG 25 SW OTG 30 SW YKN 30 NE ANW 30 WSW PHP 55 WSW RAP 50 N DGW 35 SSW CPR 40 ENE RKS 50 ENE JAC 30 SE LVM 45 ESE GTF 40 ENE GTF 30 NE CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 30 W EEN 15 NW ISP 25 S DOV 40 W NHK 15 SW SHD MGW 20 NNE DUJ 35 SE ROC 20 SSE ART 15 W MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 50 WNW BPT 20 SSW LFK 30 S TYR 40 S DAL 10 SE SEP 30 SW BWD 35 WNW JCT 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 30 SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX COS 25 W GJT 20 WNW U28 15 N ELY 10 E RNO 45 SSW SVE 20 SSE MHS 30 SE EUG 30 S AST ...CONT... 40 NE 4OM 25 NE EPH 40 W PUW 25 SE LWS 40 WNW 27U DLN 25 NNW BZN 20 S GTF 45 SSE CTB 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 25 S TVF 20 SSW BRD MSP 15 S MCW 40 NNE FNB 15 WNW STJ 25 ENE MKC 45 SSE MTO 35 ESE BMG 10 S DAY 35 SSE FDY 50 NNW MFD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NY SWD TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS... ...ERN NY SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS ERN NY. IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL HEAT RAPIDLY AS MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CURRENT OH VLY STORMS PASSES N OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY MID-DAY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE-TROUGH AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE OH VLY ALONG A WEAK FRONT. BUT...THE FLOW REGIME IS WEAKER HERE AND ONLY ISOLD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED. ...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS... PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD MONDAY...MAINTAINING A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. DEFAULT CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER NERN WY...WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION PREFERRED. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SCNTRL MT/WY MOUNTAINS BY MID-DAY. STORMS ARE APT TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING ACROSS ERN MT AND NERN WY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MT MAY RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS QUICKLY...MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A ZONE WHERE CELLS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE ACROSS SERN WY/NERN WY FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. LLJ WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AND A SEVERE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE EWD ALONG/N OF AN E-W FRONT FROM PARTS OF ND/SD EWD TOWARD SWRN/WCNTRL MN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN BENEATH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...A SUBTLE HIGH-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD FROM BAJA AND MAY AUGMENT LARGE SCALE VENTING BY PEAK HEATING MONDAY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMER...SURFACE WILL HEAT CONSIDERABLY AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX TO SWRN KS 21-00Z. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO FAR FROM THE INITIATING SOURCE DURING THE EVENING AND DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 12:33:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 07:33:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506061244.j56CimgB020226@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061242 SWODY1 SPC AC 061240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 30 W EEN 15 NW ISP 10 E DOV 40 W NHK 20 N SHD MGW 20 NNE DUJ 35 SE ROC 40 NNE ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 N ROW 45 NNE CAO 35 SSW GLD 15 S IML 40 WSW MHN 35 ENE CDR 40 SSW RAP 60 NNE DGW 20 SSE CPR 45 WSW CPR 25 SW SHR 30 SSE LWT 50 S HVR 35 NNW HVR ...CONT... 50 N MOT 35 SSE AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 NNW SUX 30 WSW OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25 SW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 10 NNE VCT 45 NNW VCT 25 E SAT 25 E HDO 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 30 SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX COS 25 W GJT 20 WNW U28 55 NW MLF 10 E RNO 45 SSW SVE 20 SSE MHS 25 NNE 4BK 40 SSW OTH ...CONT... 40 NE 4OM 25 NE EPH 40 W PUW 25 SE LWS 40 WNW 27U DLN 25 NNW BZN 20 S GTF 45 SSE CTB 55 WNW CTB ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 25 S TVF 20 SSW BRD MSP 15 S MCW 40 NNE FNB 15 WNW STJ 45 SSE P35 35 NNW SLO 35 ESE BMG 10 S DAY 40 NNW CMH 25 W CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NY/PA SWD TO THE NRN CHESAPEAKE AREA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA... A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW OVER WA/ORE WILL DRIFT INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM NV THIS MORNING TO WY/MT BY THIS EVENING. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY INVOF SE MT IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SPEED MAX...WHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT NWD AND CONSOLIDATE AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN SD. THOUGH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SE OF SD...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LEE CYCLONE...AND PERHAPS TO THE W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT...AND THEN SPREAD EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING AND THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AND WIND PROFILES WITH SELY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH ROUGHLY 30 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN SD...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOW ECHO OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...PA/NY AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EWD TO WRN PA/NY THIS EVENING AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM ERN LOWER MI TO WRN OH THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL PA/NY BY THIS EVENING...WHILE A N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN NY DRIFTS EWD. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN PA/NY FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND NWD INTO ERN PA/NY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INVOF OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BY MIDDAY AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN WRN PA MAY PERSIST AS WELL. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. SOMEWHAT BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE ERN NY BORDER...AS WELL AS CHANNELED SLY FLOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A SUPERCELL THREAT...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ...HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE... THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TODAY ACROSS W TX IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHILE NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS KS/NEB. MEANWHILE...THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN SOME BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE/WEAK...DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 16:01:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 11:01:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506061612.j56GCIE9021159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061607 SWODY1 SPC AC 061606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW AOO 25 WSW PSB 20 N ITH 25 SE ART 20 WSW SLK 10 SSE PBG 15 NW MPV 10 ENE RUT 25 ENE PSF 20 SW BDL 10 WSW BDR 20 SSW EWR 10 W PHL 35 W ILG HGR 40 SSW AOO 25 WSW AOO. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OLF 40 NE OLF 25 N ISN 30 WNW P24 45 N MBG 25 SSE MBG 65 N PHP 10 NNE REJ 40 N 4BQ 30 SW OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 ESE EEN 15 N GON 10 E DOV 40 W NHK 25 S 5I3 40 W HTS 15 NE YNG 35 ESE ROC 40 NNE ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 N ROW 45 NNE CAO 35 SSW GLD 15 S IML 40 WSW MHN 35 ENE CDR 40 SSW RAP 60 NNE DGW 20 SSE CPR 45 WSW CPR 25 SW SHR 30 SSE LWT 50 S HVR 35 NNW HVR ...CONT... 50 N MOT 35 SSE AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 NNW SUX 30 WSW OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25 SW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 10 ESE NIR 30 NNW ALI 40 ENE LRD 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 30 SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX COS 30 SW GJT 55 WNW MLF 10 E RNO 45 SSW SVE 40 SE EKA 15 WNW EKA ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG 50 SSW S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE FCA ...CONT... 45 WNW INL 15 N HIB 45 SSW DLH 40 ESE MSP RST 25 SSE MCW 40 WNW DSM 40 NNE FNB 15 NE STJ 35 SSW IRK 35 SSE SPI 25 ENE BMG 10 S DAY 40 NNW CMH 25 W CLE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW JERSEY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OH VALLEY TO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN PORTION NRN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE COLD UPPER LOW PAC NW WITH SIG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX ROTATING NEWD FROM NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES EWD FROM GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY 40-50KT MID LEVEL JET. AT THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL WY ATTM WILL DEEPEN NEWD WITH APPROACH OF THE S/WV TROUGH INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN THE NORTHEAST A LARGE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO HAS A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE STABLE MARINE AIR IS PRESENT. ...NERN STATES... ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WRN PA/NY ARE FEEDING OFF AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS THEY MOVE EWD. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES TO 3500 J/KG EWD TO WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM FROM SFC-3KM THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT... ACCOMPANYING THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY PROPAGATE RAPIDLY E/NEWD TO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DURING AFTERNOON FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ERN NY/NERN PA. REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO WRN PA/WV DURING MID AFTERNOON WHERE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY UNSTABLE. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE/BOWS AND MOVE BACK ACROSS SOME OF AREA NOW BEING AFFECTED BY CURRENT SEVERE AS WELL AS FURTHER S INTO MD/NRN VA. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NEWD OUT OF WY ALONG WITH INCREASING UPWARD MOTION AND WINDS WITH APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS E/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES PRODUCE MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY ERN MT. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD DURING EVENING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES. A SEVERE MCS WILL THEN LIKELY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS ND FEEDING OFF 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY SRN HIGH PLAINS...A VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE FROM TX/NM BORDER NWD TO SD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE WITHIN THIS ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL. A LITTLE MORE SHEAR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...TN/LOWER MS VALLEY... REF MCD 1195 AND 1196 WHILE SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK THROUGHOUT THIS REGION...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 20:07:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 15:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506062018.j56KIxNq008308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062013 SWODY1 SPC AC 062012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OLF 40 NE OLF 25 ENE ISN 45 SE JMS 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW ABR 65 N PHP 10 NNE REJ 40 N 4BQ 30 SW OLF. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MGW DUJ 20 N PSB 10 SE IPT 10 SW AVP 45 N MSV 20 NNE UCA 25 E SLK 20 NNW RUT 30 E POU TTN 10 W PHL 35 WSW MRB 10 NE EKN 35 WSW MGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT STC 30 ENE MKT 30 E FRM OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25 SW P07 ...CONT... 50 WNW MRF 30 ESE 4CR TAD 40 NW AKO 25 E CYS 15 NW CYS 45 S LND BPI 40 NNE JAC 10 NNW 3HT 50 N LWT 30 N HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DOV 30 SW CHO 10 WSW GSP 25 ESE CHA 20 SSE HSV 15 ESE MSL 50 ENE MKL 25 WSW DYR 25 SSE FSM 10 NW FSM 25 N UMN 20 E VIH 30 SSW MTO 50 WNW LUK 35 NW HLG 25 SE ERI ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG 50 SSW S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE FCA ...CONT... 45 WNW INL 15 N HIB 15 SW DLH 15 SW EAU 45 NW DBQ 45 SSW ALO DSM 40 NNE FNB STJ 30 NE SZL 40 SSE UIN 25 N IND 30 N DAY 10 SSE CAK 15 SW ERI ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 10 ESE NIR 30 NNW ALI 40 ENE LRD 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 45 S 4CR 15 NW LVS 15 WSW PUB 30 SW DEN GJT ELY RNO RBL 15 WNW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 30 SW MWN 10 WNW CON BOS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NY SWWD ACROSS NRN NJ...SRN PA AND INTO EXTREME NRN WV AND NRN MD... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MT INTO PORTIONS OF ND/SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/OH AND TN VALLEYS NEWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...NERN STATES... DERECHO MOVING THROUGH ERN NY/NERN PA/NRN NJ WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL. THE MOIST BOUNDARY SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF EWD MOVING DERECHO...ESPECIALLY BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS THE WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE DERECHO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SELY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC ARE RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD INTO NRN WV. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS TO FORM A COLD POOL...WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF PA AND PORTIONS OF NRN MD/WV. FURTHER SOUTH FROM CENTRAL WV EWD ACROSS NRN VA INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER THAN ACROSS PA...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AT MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NERN WY AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SD...WITH 20 KT SELY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ADVECTING MID AND UPPER 50S INTO ERN MT. AT THE SAME...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS WY AND ERN MT WAS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OUT OF NRN UT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES...EVEN AS THE STORMS MOVES EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD THIS EVENING. AROUND MID EVENING...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AID STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS. A STRONG COLD POOL SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM LINE LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF ND/NRN SD AND EVENTUALLY SWRN MN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ONCE THE MCS FORMS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...25-35 KT...A VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUPERCELLS APPEARS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR. THE MAIN THEAT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE HAIL...THOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...MID MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... AT MID AFTERNOON...MCV'S WERE LOCATED IN ERN MO...NRN MS AND NEAR FSM. THE SYSTEM IN NRN MS HAS PERSISTED THE PAST 24 HOURS AND APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TN EWD INTO WRN NC AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT...STRONG HEATING AND MODERATELY INSTABILITY AND WEAK COLD POOLS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 00:44:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 19:44:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506070055.j570t8B6013182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070053 SWODY1 SPC AC 070052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ISN 55 NE BIS 55 NNE ABR 25 SE ABR 25 SW MBG 30 NNE REJ 40 SSW GDV 10 SW SDY 35 SE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SBY 15 NW NHK 10 ENE DCA 15 SW ILG TTN 20 ENE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 40 E 4CR 20 WSW CAO 30 NE LAA 45 ENE AKO 40 NNW BFF 15 NNW GCC 60 WSW MLS 70 ESE HVR 55 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 45 S 4CR 15 NW LVS 15 WSW PUB 30 SW DEN GJT ELY RNO RBL 15 WNW EKA ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG 50 SSW S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 35 S LFK 30 ENE CLL 30 ESE DAL 15 NW MKO 35 SE SZL 30 SSE MIE 20 E PIT 35 SSW ELM 25 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E RRT 10 NW DLH 50 S LSE 40 NNE FNB 20 WNW PNC 55 NNE ABI 60 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MOT 40 W BRD MSP 30 NW MCW SUX 35 E GRI 35 E DDC 25 W CDS 60 E FST 20 SE P07. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN MT...SRN ND AND NRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 995 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN ND THEN INTO WCNTRL MN. MOIST ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG/N OF THE LOW/FRONT BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE WY/MT HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY IN THE AFTN. TSTMS HAVE OBVIOUSLY ROOTED INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN MT/NERN WY AND ARE BEING MAINTAINED. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE MADE DEVIANT RIGHT MOTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE MEAN FLOW VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SERN/ECNTRL MT. STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WRN DAKS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THREATS FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM ECNTRL MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND. AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO DIURNALLY ACCELERATE LATER THIS EVENING... TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND DEVELOP/MOVE DOWNSTREAM...ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. AT THAT TIME...SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... DRYLINE WAS AN EFFICIENT TSTM INITIATOR THIS AFTN OWING TO HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND DIFFLUENT/VENTING UPPER FLOW REGIME FROM WRN NEB TO SWRN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE AOA 40 KTS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. PRIND THAT AS THE LLJ INCREASES ON THE PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING...ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S MAY EVOLVE. STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...CNTRL/ERN SD AND PERHAPS ACROSS SRN KS/WRN OK/TX PNHDL. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE THREATS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SEVERE THREATS MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD. ...MID-ATLANTIC/MID OH VLY... LEWP CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE NJ/MD/DE COAST THIS EVENING. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX WILL RIDE ATOP THE COLD BUBBLE SITUATED OVER LONG ISLAND/NRN NJ AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SRN NJ...DE...THE LOWER ERN MD SHORE AREA AND ERN VA THROUGH MID-EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER NW...SUFFICIENT AIR MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF EARLIER DAY BOW ECHO HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ADDITIONAL TSTM LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN PA BACK INTO THE MID-OH VLY. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ON AN ARRAY OF SEGMENTED COLD FRONTS. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO SUSTAINING THESE TSTMS MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. ..RACY.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 05:27:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 00:27:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506070539.j575d1Oe027421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070534 SWODY1 SPC AC 070533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE VTN 45 SW PHP 35 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 WSW FAR 40 SSE FAR 55 SSW AXN 30 SE BKX 40 S MHE 15 NNE VTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 NE CMX 35 WNW TVC 30 SW MKG 15 WNW CGX 35 SE DBQ 30 NNE CID 45 ESE FOD 20 N OMA 15 N CNK 25 N P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 E PVW 40 NNW PVW 40 SE EHA 25 NW GCK 10 SSE IML 30 ESE AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE SHR 15 W MLS 45 WSW P24 30 NNW DVL 80 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSX 50 W HOU 35 ESE AUS 25 NE SAT 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 75 S MRF 40 NNE HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 30 NE PUC 60 S EKO 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 25 E DLN 15 NE WEY 35 NNW COD BIL 75 ENE LWT 60 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SD...EXTREME SERN ND AND EXTREME WCNTRL MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VLY REGIONS... ...NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... AN MCS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MN. THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS ALONG ALONG/S OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN WI...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE DECAYING CLUSTER. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS IN THE NRN PLAINS AND NORTH OF THE LAKES REGION SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE OF MULTICELL VARIETY. BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A MODEST H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROTATING EWD THROUGH NV IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW OVER WRN SD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CNTRL SD BY TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD INTO WCNTRL MN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55F AS FAR W AS THE WY BLACK HILLS. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/SWRN SD WILL INTENSIFY AND PROBABLY ROOT INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BACKS WITH TIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FLOW TURNS MORE WLY RESULTING IN STRONGER VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THIS SET-UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHTS TSTM EVOLUTION WHERE WRN EXTENT OF THE TSTMS EVOLVED INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST REMAINED DISCRETE THE LONGEST. 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. MOREOVER...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL SD. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE INITIALLY HIGH LCLS. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO WARM DURING THE NEXT 24-HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS W TX. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/WRN NEB INTO WRN KS AND PERHAPS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT GIVEN A STORM...SUPERCELL STRUCTURE COULD RESULT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DECREASING SEVERE THREATS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 12:38:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 07:38:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506071249.j57CnEB5032748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071247 SWODY1 SPC AC 071245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S VTN 55 NE CDR 40 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 WSW FAR 40 SSE FAR 55 SSW AXN 30 SE BKX 40 E ANW 25 S VTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 40 ESE DBQ 30 E ALO 30 NE FOD 10 SSE SUX 25 SW OLU 10 SE P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 W CDS 20 ESE AMA 35 S LBL 50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE SHR 15 W MLS 45 WSW P24 30 NNW DVL 80 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK ...CONT... 20 S PSX 50 W HOU 35 ESE AUS 25 NE SAT 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 75 S MRF 40 NNE HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 30 NE PUC 60 S EKO 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 25 E DLN 15 NE WEY 35 NNW COD BIL 75 ENE LWT 60 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CNTRL/ERN SD...EXTREME NRN NEB...EXTREME WCNTRL MN...AND EXTREME SE ND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN PLAINS...THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A NARROW SWATH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS.... ...NRN PLAINS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT... A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WA/ORE...WITH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD OVER MT/ND/SD...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING EWD OVER WRN UT. THE UT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD TO ERN WY/NE CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING WAVE. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE OCCLUDING IN ND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE PATH OF THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER ERN NEB...WITH A LARGER CLUSTER MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE MN CLUSTER MAY PERSIST INTO WI TODAY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS...AND THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THIS CONVECTION ARE A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THIS FORECAST. THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NE NEB TO NW IA AND SW MN...WITH GENERALLY 58-60 F DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN NEB TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BY MID MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE HEATING TO MODIFY THE COLD POOL. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE...NORTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF THE UPPER 60 DEWPOINT PLUME SHOULD RESUME FROM ERN KS/NEB TO CENTRAL AND ERN SD BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/. ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS AS EXPECTED ACROSS NEB/SD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NW NEB AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN SD. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S. SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NE OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NE SD...WHERE THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR COINCIDES WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY. ...CENTRAL PLAINS DRYLINE... ABQ/DNR SOUNDINGS WARMED 2-4 C THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO YESTERDAY EVENING...AND THIS WARMER EML PLUME MAY ACT AS A STRONGER CAP OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO MONDAY. STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FROM N TX TO ERN KS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING/ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 16:30:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 11:30:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506071642.j57Gg3Gg027285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071631 SWODY1 SPC AC 071629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S VTN 55 NE CDR 40 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 20 SW FAR 20 W BRD 40 S STC 25 NW FRM 20 ESE YKN 25 S VTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 40 ESE DBQ 30 E ALO 30 NE FOD 10 SSE SUX 25 SW OLU 10 SE P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 W CDS 20 ESE AMA 35 S LBL 50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE SHR 30 W MLS 20 S OLF 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 40 NNE HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 20 WSW VEL 20 NNW DPG 30 ENE WMC 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 15 SSE 3DU 35 ENE BTM 35 W 3HT 10 NE LWT 55 SE HVR 60 ENE HVR ...CONT... 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS CENTRAL AND ERN SD...EXTREME SERN ND... PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MN AND EXTREME NRN NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD AND DEEPEN INTO A LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS ENHANCES THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THAT RETROGRADES OVER THE NRN PLATEAU REGION. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NRN WY/ERN MT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER NWRN NEB/CENTRAL SD VICINITY FURTHER ENHANCING WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN SD INTO SRN/CENTRAL MN AND SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE FROM CENTRAL SD SSWWD INTO NERN NM. ...NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MN... SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENS OVER WY/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NNEWD INTO ERN SD UNDERNEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION. MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 70 KT IN TANDEM WITH UPPER LEVEL JET OF 90-100 KT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN NV/SRN ID THRU SERN WY INTO CENTRAL SD. THIS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SD THEN INTO WRN/CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION ENHANCING UVVS IN THE VICINITY AND EAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS THE LOW DEVELOPS WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE AND BRN SHEAR NUMBERS INCREASE INTO THE 60-70 M2/S2 UNDERNEATH THE COUPLING JET STREAKS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTO CENTRAL SD AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS WY/MT. STRONG KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO AROUND 4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN...WITH DECREASE IN SURFACE HEATING TONIGHT...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY BECOMES A MCS ACROSS MN AND PARTS OF WI TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK... STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5C/KM PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 20:07:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 15:07:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506072018.j57KIfXY005986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 072010 SWODY1 SPC AC 072008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CDR 35 S RAP 45 NNE RAP 35 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 SSW FAR 40 W AXN 30 WSW RWF 40 SE FSD 45 ENE ANW 20 ENE CDR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 30 NNE MMO 20 E CID 35 E FOD 25 SE SUX 25 SW OLU P28 25 ESE CDS 45 NW DRT 35 SW P07 45 W P07 10 WSW PVW 50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 40 ESE RIW 25 SW WRL 40 N SHR 30 W MLS 20 SSW OLF 65 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 15 E HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 40 NNE EGE 35 E PUC 20 NNE U24 30 ENE WMC 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 15 SSE 3DU 35 ENE BTM 35 W 3HT 10 NE LWT 55 SE HVR 60 ENE HVR ...CONT... 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL 30 WSW EEN 20 W EFK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SD TO A SECONDARY LOW OVER CNTRL MN. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN WI. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW IN THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH NERN CO...WRN KS AND W TX. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY INTO WRN SD WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SWRN WY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO ERN MT. FARTHER EAST INTO SD WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED. HOWEVER...CUMULUS IS INCREASING FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL SD IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA BY 21-22Z AS CAP WEAKENS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER SWRN SD WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING MID-UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND HELP TO WEAKEN CAP. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH SD DURING THE EVENING AS LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET. A WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER SD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH SD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH WRN WI FROM A SURFACE LOW IN E CNTRL MN. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STATIONARY FRONT. BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IF STORMS CAN MOVE SEWD ALONG OR JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO SELY AND WHERE IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SRN PLAINS... THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF CAP AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INITIATION. HOWEVER...MODEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE MAY MIX EWD AND MERGE WITH A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION IN THAT AREA. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 00:45:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 19:45:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506080056.j580uEhi014950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080053 SWODY1 SPC AC 080051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N VTN 20 SSW PHP 55 NNW PHP 25 WNW MBG 50 ESE BIS 35 WSW FAR 45 ESE FAR 35 SSW AXN 20 NE BKX 25 NW MHE 45 N VTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 50 ENE ESC 40 NW MKG 35 ENE MKE 30 W MKE 35 N DBQ 30 E FOD 25 ESE SUX 15 SW OFK 30 NW BBW 45 WNW MHN 10 SSW CDR 10 N RAP 15 WNW 4BQ MLS 25 WSW SDY 60 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE 55 SW CMH 30 SSW BLF 25 NNE DAN 10 N ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 W LFK 30 E DAL 25 ESE FYV 40 NE SGF 20 WNW COU 35 NNW SZL 15 ESE TOP 35 S MHK 20 ESE RSL 15 SSE HLC 25 WSW MCK 10 S SNY 40 NNE LAR 35 WNW CPR 50 NW LND 20 NNE OGD 25 NW EKO 65 NE SVE 30 ENE MHS 20 SW MFR 10 W EUG 10 S PDX 20 NNW GEG 60 NW 3TH 10 WNW 3DU 30 NW BZN 15 NE LWT 65 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN SD...EXTREME SERN ND AND WCNTRL MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...NRN PLAINS... VERY STRONG COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED OVER WRN SD AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT SLOWS OVER SERN ND AND CNTRL SD. THE LLJ IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL FORM DOWNSTREAM ALONG/NORTH OF THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO WCNTRL/NWRN MN AFTER 03Z. THE NEAR SURFACE THROUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH TIME OVER THE PLAINS...AND BECOME ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE COLD POOL...SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE DECELERATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND DISCRETE MODES WILL BE FAVORED MOSTLY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO SERN ND WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MAINTAINED. LATER TONIGHT...THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES ORIENTED WSWLY AND INCREASES. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LOOPY SQUALL-LINE SCENARIO WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. BUT...ISOLD TORNADOES STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALL THE WAY EAST INTO PARTS OF WRN MN LATER TONIGHT. NRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL PROBABLY BE DEFINED BY THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED INTO EXTREME NRN MN AND PARTS OF NRN ND. ...UPPER MS VLY... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1003 MB SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NWRN WI WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED SEWD ACROSS CNTRL WI AND A WARM FRONT FARTHER N IN NRN WI. LINE OF TSTMS VCNTY THE LOW SWWD TO SCNTRL MN HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL AND SEEM TO BE SUSTAINING TSTMS AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD WRN WI. PROFILER AT WOOD LAKE AND BLUE RIVER SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH A MIXED MODE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL STRUCTURES BEING NOTED THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING MOSTLY LARGE HAIL. BUT...A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN WI ALONG THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT HAVE EXHIBITED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLD TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. OVERNIGHT...A BRANCH OF THE H9-H85 JET PEELING NEWD FROM THE MAIN CORE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN TSTMS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WI. CELLS TRAVELING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO UPPER MI WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME GIVEN MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ENTRENCHED IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. BUT...FARTHER S...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS INTO EARLY WED MORNING. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY FROM NWRN-CNTRL-ECNTRL WI. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... DESPITE WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...00Z SOUNDINGS AT LBF/DDC/MAF AND THE 18Z REESE AFB SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE CAP WAS NOT AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. RATHER THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND...CONSEQUENTLY...DRYLINE CIRCULATION WERE WEAKER. A FEW TSTMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER SW TX TERRAIN WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS. BUT...EVEN THESE TSTMS APPEAR TO NOT BE INGESTING THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS. AS A RESULT...THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEM TO BE LESSENING WITH TIME THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE. ..RACY.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 05:41:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 00:41:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506080552.j585qSEH014149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080549 SWODY1 SPC AC 080547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E ANJ 35 WSW GRR 60 ESE VIH 45 S PNC 20 SSE CSM 60 NNW CDS GCK 35 NE GLD 35 ESE SNY 25 E AIA 40 W YKN 20 SSE BKX 40 SSE FAR 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU 35 S AUS 35 SSE HDO 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 30 W LBB 40 N AMA 40 WNW EHA 25 SSE PUB 30 NNE EGE 20 S RWL 40 NNE RKS 30 SSW EVW 30 WSW ENV 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 35 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE GON 25 N TTN 20 E CXY 30 SW DCA 20 W HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...UPPER MS VLY/UPPER-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... A COUPLE OF MCS/S MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY SWD INTO THE CORN BELT WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. MORNING STORMS WILL ALTER THE MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR WED AFTN SEVERE POTENTIAL...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE PORTION OF TSTM CLUSTERS WILL TRAVEL NEWD AND DECAY OVER CNTRL MN/NRN WI WED MORNING... REINFORCING AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG/S OF THE FRONT BY AFTN. BY PEAK HEATING...THE WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BRUSH THE UPPER MS VLY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY OWING TO THE DAMPENING WAVE. BUT PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL TSTMS BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF MN SOUTH INTO IA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF AROUND 35 KTS. STRONG INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEAKER SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR MIXED MODES OF MULTICELLS AND BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD UPPER MI...BUT LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT/INSTABILITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER KS BY WED AFTN AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MINIMAL. BUT...AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT FIRST INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN MO/NERN KS...POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TSTMS...THEN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW TO THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SCNTRL KS. ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM AS FAR S AS I-40 ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT CONVERGENCE APPEARS IT WILL BE WEAKER THAT FAR SOUTH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...BUT SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AS WELL GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER W...HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL LIMIT THERMAL BUOYANCY...BUT THE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD STAY ISOLD AT BEST ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD SUFFICE. MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST IN NEB OVERNIGHT WED AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO ACCELERATE. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NWWD. IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. ...NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND... A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EWD INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS TO POSSIBLY BOW AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. WILL INCLUDE LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND THREATS UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ON SEVERE COVERAGE/INSTABILITY CAN BE ASCERTAINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 12:37:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 07:37:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506081248.j58CmEVH027598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081246 SWODY1 SPC AC 081244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S ESC 10 NNW HTL MBS 25 SSW JXN 20 WNW STL 45 S PNC 20 SSE CSM 60 NNW CDS 45 W RSL HLC 15 WNW MCK 30 NNE IML 30 SSW MHN 35 SW ANW 45 NE BUB 10 NNW OMA 30 SW ALO 35 SSE LSE 10 SW CWA 15 ENE AUW 50 SSW IMT 50 S ESC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 15 WSW DLH 40 NNE MSP 35 SSW STC 50 SSW AXN 35 S FAR GFK 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE GON 25 N TTN 20 E CXY 30 SW DCA 20 W HSE ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 35 SW BHB ...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU 35 S AUS 35 SSE HDO 35 S LRD ...CONT... 70 SSW MRF 30 NNE INK 40 ESE DHT 45 SSW LAA 30 NE ALS 10 S EGE 20 S RWL 25 S RKS 50 NNW PUC 60 NW ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BIS 40 N REJ 65 WSW RAP 25 SW CDR 35 N MHN 35 SE MHE 25 NNW ATY 50 SE JMS 20 WNW JMS 20 WNW BIS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM WI TO ERN KS...AND TONIGHT ACROSS NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN.... ...WI TO NE KS AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT... THE REMNANTS OF AN INTENSE OVERNIGHT MCS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ARE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS WRN WI AND NRN IA. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IA/WI WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR...THUS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME. CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWD/SEWD ALONG THE AXIS OF 70 F DEWPOINTS AND STRONG INSTABILITY TOWARD NE KS/NW MO BY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS LINKED TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE SE MOVING FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ...CENTRAL/NRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WELL TO THE NW OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND...A PRONOUNCED MCV IS LIFTING NNEWD OVER NE ND/NW MN. THE OVERNIGHT MCS PRODUCED A LARGE COLD POOL AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...REDUCING INSTABILITY ACROSS MN MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN IN ADVANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW AND MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTING NEWD FROM ND. RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS BENEATH THE NOSE OF THE MID-UPPER JET ACROSS WRN AND NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...NEB AREA LATE TONIGHT... THE SYNOPTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS NRN KS LATE TODAY...AND THEN RETURN NWWD ACROSS NEB LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF WRN KS. WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WAA REGIME N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AFTER 06Z. ...NY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN LOWER MI/LAKE HURON WILL MOVE ESEWD TO NY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WRN AND UPSTATE NY. ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE LOW-MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THE WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL. ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 16:36:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 11:36:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506081647.j58GlL9S022580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081629 SWODY1 SPC AC 081627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BVO 35 NW PNC 30 SE SLN 25 NNW TOP 10 SE STJ 40 N SZL 25 SSE SZL 35 ENE JLN 20 NNE BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 15 WSW DLH 40 NNE MSP 35 SSW STC 50 SSW AXN 35 S FAR GFK 75 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S ESC 15 NW OSC 40 SSE OSC 25 E MTC 30 SSW STL 45 S JLN 20 ENE CDS 40 WNW CDS 45 W RSL HLC 15 WNW MCK 30 NNE IML 30 SSW MHN 35 SW ANW 45 NE BUB 20 NE FNB 35 NNW IRK 40 W RFD 10 WNW OSH GRB 45 NE GRB 50 S ESC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 15 SSE CVS 30 E DHT 50 N LAA 40 SW COS 10 S EGE RWL 30 WSW LND 20 E OGD 60 NW ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 25 SE BIS 10 WNW Y22 25 S REJ 10 SSW RAP 45 ESE PHP 25 SW HON ATY 50 SSW FAR 15 S JMS 25 SE BIS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 15 ENE BDR 10 WNW EWR 10 ENE ILG 10 SSW NHK 20 W HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 20 SE BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH REMAINS OVER WRN U.S. WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES/NERN STATES. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD FROM ND INTO SRN MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW CENTRAL ND SEWD INTO ERN SD THEN SWD THRU ERN NEB TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO NRN TX PANHANDLE. FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SLOWER SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO BUILD S/SEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED PRONOUNCED COLD DOME PUSHING SWD. A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS MAINTAINING A SUPPLY OF VERY MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE FLOW OF AIR AHEAD OF FRONT AND INTO SWD PROPAGATING MCS BOUNDARIES. ...CENTRAL U.S... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS AVAILABLE FOR SUPPORT OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE STREAM OF AIR FROM OK NEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. MARGINAL SHEAR PARTICULARLY S OF OK/KS BORDER IS THE LIMITING FACTOR IN AN OTHERWISE POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH FULL HEAT AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE GONE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT THRU ERN KS AND MCS OUTFLOW DROPPING SWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. WITH MLCAPES AOA 5000 J/KG...AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ERN KS/WRN MO. IN ADDITION PARTICULARLY VICINITY BOUNDARIES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WHERE LOCALLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR CAN BE ENHANCED. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO INSTABILITY AXIS DURING EVENING TOWARD/INTO NRN OK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... THE LARGE MCS OVER IA HAS DISRUPTED FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS DAKOTAS. HOWEVER GOOD HEATING WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWS THAT DEVELOP IN THE STRONG FLOW. ...SRN GREAT LAKES EWD TO NY AREA... WHILE SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK MUCH OF THIS AREA...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT DEVELOP IN A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD BE HIGHLY DIURNAL...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NEB AREA LATE TONIGHT... FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KS EXPECTED TO RETURN NWWD ACROSS NEB LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL LEAD TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WAA REGIME N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AFTER 06Z. ..HALES/SCHNEIDER.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 19:55:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 14:55:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506082006.j58K6X09027952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082000 SWODY1 SPC AC 081959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BVO 25 NE ICT 25 E SLN 25 SE BIE 15 WNW FNB 15 ENE FLV SZL 25 S SZL 55 SSW SZL 35 SSE CNU 30 NW BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 20 SSW HIB 35 ESE STC 35 N RWF 50 ENE ATY 15 SE FAR 15 N FAR 20 SSE GFK 30 ESE DVL 25 NNE DVL 60 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PLN 25 WNW APN 15 ENE OSC 25 E MTC 35 W EVV 20 ENE CGI 35 NW FYV 40 SSW LTS 45 SE CDS 40 SW CDS 45 NE PVW 40 ENE AMA 45 W P28 30 W SLN 60 SSW HSI 40 NE MCK 25 N IML 35 ESE AIA 45 NNW MHN 25 NE ANW 25 WNW OFK 50 NNE FNB 25 SSE IRK 20 W UIN 40 ESE BRL 35 ENE MLI OSH 10 ENE GRB 55 S ESC 30 SSW PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BIS 10 WNW Y22 25 S REJ 10 SSW RAP 45 ESE PHP 25 SW HON ATY 50 SSW FAR 15 S JMS 25 SE BIS ...CONT... 60 S MRF 15 SSE CVS 30 E DHT 50 N LAA 40 SW COS 10 S EGE RWL 30 WSW LND 20 E OGD 60 NW ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 20 SE BHB ...CONT... 25 SE BOS 15 ENE BDR 10 WNW EWR 10 ENE ILG 10 SSW NHK 20 W HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN ND THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN MN... ...ERN KS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN IL SWWD THROUGH NRN MO THEN NWWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE FROM ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO AND INTO OK. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT OR IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF GRAVITY WAVES. WWD BACKBUILDING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED TOWARD EVENING AS THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP WWD TOWARD THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. ...MN AND ERN ND... THIS REGION HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE MORNING MCS DUE TO PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME RECOVERY...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER CNTRL MN...BUT WITH UPPER 50S OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THE STATE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS OVER THIS REGION. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ND EJECTS NEWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...NERN U.S.... STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT AND IN VICINITY OF A BOUNDARY DOWNSTREAM FROM A SEWD MOVING VORT MAX. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NEB... INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD THROUGH NEB TONIGHT UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 00:54:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 19:54:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506090105.j59158I4017814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090102 SWODY1 SPC AC 090100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHK 30 S FNB 20 ENE FLV 10 WNW SZL 60 NNW SGF JLN 15 NNW BVO 15 W ICT MHK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE OMA 45 NW LWD LWD P35 JEF SGF 40 WNW FYV TUL PNC 50 SW P28 DDC RSL 50 SSW EAR 10 W MCK IML SNY AIA ANW OFK 15 SSE OMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA GTF 70 NNE BIL 20 ENE SHR 50 E WRL BPI 35 WSW MLD 40 WNW OWY 55 ENE RDM 35 WSW PDT PUW 30 N GEG 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 10 WNW LFT 30 E POE 40 W POE 35 WSW LFK 60 SSW TYR 45 WSW TXK 40 SW HOT 45 NW HOT 35 S MLC 20 NNW ADM SPS 55 W ABI 40 WSW SJT 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 65 S MRF MRF INK HOB 55 N HOB 45 SE AMA 45 E LBL EHA 10 WNW TAD 30 S 4FC EGE 40 NNE CAG 30 ENE DGW 40 SSW 9V9 YKN 30 WSW AXN FAR 55 NW JMS 40 ENE MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 35 WSW MSS SLK LEB 15 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN KS/W CNTRL MO.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME SPLITS DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE JET NOSING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC. IN SOUTHERN BRANCH...AN IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION IN CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ALREADY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE ...FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED 70+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MANITOBA/ ONTARIO...GRADUALLY WEAKENING BENEATH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SURFACE DRY LINE TYPE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND SHIFT NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA PROVIDES SOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS ALREADY LIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING IN NARROW PRE-WIND SHIFT MOIST TONGUE ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND STABLE EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...PROSPECTS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEAR SLIM. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO EASTERN KANSAS/PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND...LATER TONIGHT...WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS ADVECTING OFF THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ABOVE RETURN FLOW OF LOW/MID 70S DEW POINTS. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT UPPER FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SIZABLE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR RAIN CORES...SUPPORTING DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG/CONSOLIDATING SURFACE OUTFLOWS. EVENTUALLY...OUTFLOWS WILL UNDERCUT THE CORE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND INHIBITION SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI OR SOUTHWARD MUCH BEYOND EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT...BACKING OF CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO REFOCUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEBRASKA. AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 06Z ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 09-12Z. ..KERR.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 05:36:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 00:36:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506090547.j595leM5004101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090545 SWODY1 SPC AC 090543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC BFF 10 ESE CDR VTN 20 W YKN 25 SE FSD 20 NNE FRM 10 E MCW LWD MHK HUT P28 END 40 E OKC ADM 40 S SPS ABI SJT 65 NE P07 10 SW FST HOB 10 NNE CVS 40 SSW LAA LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 35 NW INK 30 SW CVS 10 WNW CAO 30 ESE RTN 50 ENE 4SL 25 E INW 40 NNE DAG 20 SSW BIH 35 ENE BNO 45 N ALW 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 55 NE BIS 20 SW FAR 25 SSW DLH IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK DOV 45 W ORF 20 S OAJ ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 25 SW LFK 45 SW TYR 35 WNW ACT 10 ESE BWD 15 NNW JCT 15 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY.... MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA...AND WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU TODAY...AS INTENSE UPSTREAM UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WITH APPROACH OF LATTER SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... EVOLVING LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS...ATOP VERY MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL AGAIN EXCEED 4000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES...AT LEAST IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. LARGE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD OUTFLOW SLOWLY SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...WHERE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP AND WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT NEW DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...BUT STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT A LARGE PART OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 09/12Z...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL ENHANCE FORCING ALONG PRIMARY LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN MAINTAINS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THUS...STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA. FRONT...DRY LINE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS ALL LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION WEAKENS BY/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING CLUSTER...AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER SUPPORT...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION WITH LOSS OF HEATING WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE SLOWED BY NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET...AND MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO APPALACHIANS... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG...LOCALIZED PULSE SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS. CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ENHANCED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS COULD SUPPORT NEW STORMS CLUSTERS AND BETTER DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND...UPSTREAM...FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ..KERR.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 12:44:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 07:44:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506091255.j59CtcwT015817@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091253 SWODY1 SPC AC 091252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW RSL 10 S DDC 15 WSW GAG 65 ENE AMA 35 NE AMA 25 SSE EHA 35 S GLD 20 NNE GLD 10 NW MCK 25 W EAR 20 SSW HSI 50 WNW CNK 50 WSW RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LIC 10 WNW SNY 40 E AIA 35 N BUB 25 SSW YKN 30 ESE SPW 25 NE DSM 15 NE LWD 15 NNE MHK 15 SE SLN 30 N P28 35 S P28 35 NW MLC 35 S MLC 10 SE DUA 40 N ABI 35 W ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 30 SSW HOB 30 ESE CVS 40 NNE DHT 25 NE LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW JFK DOV 45 W ORF 20 S OAJ ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 30 SSW DVL 20 WSW FAR 25 SSW DLH IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 25 ENE CNM 20 SW CVS 35 WSW DHT 30 ESE RTN 50 ENE 4SL 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 25 SW BNO 55 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EXTREME SRN NEB...WRN KS...THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...AND THE NE TX PANHANDLE.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX NWD TO NEB.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS AREA... WITHIN THE BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH...DIFFUSE SPEED MAXIMA ARE EJECTING NEWD FROM SRN NV TOWARD CO...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM NRN CA TO AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NRN WI AND NRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IA/ERN NEB/NRN KS TO A LEE CYCLONE IN SE CO. OVERNIGHT/ONGOING STORMS HAVE CREATED A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MESOHIGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD TOWARD ERN/CENTRAL OK AND SW KS. THE KS/OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NW KS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OF THE FRONT AND W/SW OF THE OUTFLOW IN WRN KS/WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 4000-5000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A BELT OF 25-35 KT LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM TX NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN KS...AND THE ERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER /30-40 KT/ MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN KS/NEB LATER TODAY. THE RESULTANT COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTION MAY GROW INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS NW KS AND NEB BY TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO W TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK...THOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. ...OH/MS VALLEYS TO THE GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES... SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM WV/OH/IND SSWWD TO THE NRN GULF COAST...WHILE CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY LEFT A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INDIANA TO WRN TN/ERN AR. RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS BROAD AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:08:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:08:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506091619.j59GJl9F015666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091612 SWODY1 SPC AC 091610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RSL 25 ENE DDC 10 NNW CSM 50 NW CDS 20 ESE AMA 10 SE EHA 50 SE AKO 20 SE SNY 30 NW LBF 15 SE BBW HSI 40 WNW CNK 30 W RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LIC 10 WNW SNY 40 E AIA 35 N BUB 25 SSW YKN 30 ESE SPW 25 NE DSM 15 NE LWD 15 NNE MHK 15 SE SLN 30 N P28 35 S P28 35 NW MLC 35 S MLC 10 SE DUA 40 N ABI 35 W ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 25 N INK 15 SW AMA 40 ENE DHT 25 NE LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 25 ESE CNM 35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL 35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN NEB SWD THRU EXTREME ERN CO/WRN KS INTO NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN IA.... ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS WRN U.S. WITH BROAD RIDGING IN THE E. IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OUT OF WRN TROUGH ACROSS PLAINS. FOR TODAY ONE S/WV ROTATES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE IMPULSE AND 40KT SWLY MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES FROM SRN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LEE SURFACE LOW SERN CO AND DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD THRU WRN TX PANHANDLE SEPARATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES W OF DRY LINE AND A SLY FLOW OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE E. WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO E OF DRY LINE AND NWD THRU WRN KS INTO SRN NEB. COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY IS THE LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT ERN KS MCS. THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED S AND W TO A POSITION THIS MORNING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK THEN NWWD INTO SWRN KS. 12Z NAM RUN FOCUSES INITIATION ON THIS BOUNDARY AT THE EXPENSE OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG E OF DRY LINE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAP...SOME DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE E OF DRY LINE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR EXPLOSIVE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND JUST E OF DRY LINE FROM TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN NEB. WITH 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY SUPERCELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOS. THE ELY FLOW TO THE N OF THE PERSISTENT LEE LOW SERN CO...WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WWD ACROSS NERN CO FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY PALMER DIVIDE NWD. MOST CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE MODEL SIGNAL IS ACROSS NERN CO WHERE SUPERCELLS WOULD DEVELOP AND THEN PROPAGATE E/NEWD ACROSS NEB AND NWRN KS THIS EVENING FEEDING OFF 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR. A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A SEVERE MCS. SEVERE STORMS DOWN THE DRY LINE THRU TX PANHANDLE WILL BE INITIALLY MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER DURING THE EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY. AT THAT TIME WIND DAMAGE COULD BECOME MORE COMMON AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWS. AGAIN VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM PRIOR TO SUNSET. SWD EXTENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL COULD BE TO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF SWRN TX. SHEAR THIS FAR S WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH FEWER STORMS. ..HALES/PETERS.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 19:50:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 14:50:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506092001.j59K1iDv025554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091953 SWODY1 SPC AC 091951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S RSL 40 W END 25 SW CSM 35 N CDS 40 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 15 SW GLD 20 WSW IML 15 NNW IML 25 S LBF 40 SSW EAR 40 E HLC 30 S RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LIC 40 ESE FCL 10 ESE CDR 35 E PHP 30 WNW BKX 20 WSW SPW 55 WSW DSM 15 NNW STJ 20 SSW EMP 25 NE ICT 30 N PNC 30 SSE PNC 35 SSW TUL 10 N MLC 25 NNE ADM 45 NNE ABI 25 WSW ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 35 WNW INK 30 NE CNM 45 ENE ROW 25 E CVS 25 ENE DHT 10 SSW LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW TVC 20 NW PLN 50 E APN 40 ENE MTC 35 E TOL 25 E FWA 20 ESE SBN 40 NE MKE 45 WNW TVC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 25 ESE CNM 35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL 35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WRN KS...THE TX AND OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN SD INTO WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SWRN NEB/WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK... 18Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. MOREOVER...THESE DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH CURRENT TIME HEIGHT PROFILER/VWP TENDS INDICATE INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS. THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MESOANALYSIS...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND VWP DATA INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR DDC SWD INTO NWRN OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS FROM S OF MCK TO NEAR HLC TO RSL. GIVEN DISCRETE STORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SWWD ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN TX INTO SERN NM. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER E...PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...SELY-ELY SURFACE WINDS INVOF OF BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OVER NRN NEB INTO SRN SD...LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NEWD TODAY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING/. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL INTO SWRN SD IS LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL SD AND POSSIBLY SWRN MN. DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST FROM ALONG THE SD I-90 CORRIDOR SWWD INTO THE NEB SANDHILLS. ...LOWER MI... TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NW OF TOL TO N OF MTC...AS WELL AS W OF APN WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH APPROACH OF MCV CURRENTLY OVER WI. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 21:04:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 16:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506092115.j59LFQB0009878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092106 SWODY1 SPC AC 092104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S RSL 40 W END 25 SW CSM 35 N CDS 40 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 15 SW GLD 20 WSW IML 15 NNW IML 25 S LBF 40 SSW EAR 40 E HLC 30 S RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LIC 40 ESE FCL 10 ESE CDR 35 E PHP 25 E RST 45 ENE ALO 50 W DSM 15 NNW STJ 20 SSW EMP 25 NE ICT 30 N PNC 30 SSE PNC 35 SSW TUL 10 N MLC 25 NNE ADM 45 NNE ABI 25 WSW ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 35 WNW INK 30 NE CNM 45 ENE ROW 25 E CVS 25 ENE DHT 10 SSW LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW TVC 20 NW PLN 50 E APN 40 ENE MTC 35 E TOL 25 E FWA 20 ESE SBN 40 NE MKE 45 WNW TVC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL 35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 25 ESE CNM 35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WRN KS...THE TX AND OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN SD INTO WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES... AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK TO NRN IA AND SRN MN ...SWRN NEB/WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK... 18Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. MOREOVER...THESE DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH CURRENT TIME HEIGHT PROFILER/VWP TENDS INDICATE INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS. THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MESOANALYSIS...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND VWP DATA INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR DDC SWD INTO NWRN OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS FROM S OF MCK TO NEAR HLC TO RSL. GIVEN DISCRETE STORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SWWD ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN TX INTO SERN NM. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER E...PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...SELY-ELY SURFACE WINDS INVOF OF BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OVER NRN NEB INTO SRN SD...LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NEWD TODAY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING/. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL INTO SWRN SD IS LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL SD AND POSSIBLY SWRN MN. DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST FROM ALONG THE SD I-90 CORRIDOR SWWD INTO THE NEB SANDHILLS. ...SRN MN/NRN IA... AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM VICINITY OF SUX EWD ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN WITH MLCAPES NOW AROUND 2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE OF SPW AND GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...LOWER MI... TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NW OF TOL TO N OF MTC...AS WELL AS W OF APN WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH APPROACH OF MCV CURRENTLY OVER WI. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 00:49:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 19:49:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506100100.j5A107Re020053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100058 SWODY1 SPC AC 100057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PVW 35 NE PVW 30 ENE AMA 55 W GAG 10 SSE GAG CSM 20 SE LTS 65 SSE CDS 75 ESE LBB 35 ESE LBB 25 ESE PVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 15 SSE INK 55 NW BGS AMA 20 ENE LBL GCK GLD LIC 35 NNW LIC 55 ESE CYS 20 NNW SNY MHN 35 NNW BUB MHE ATY 35 SW STC 10 ENE MKT MCW 10 NNE DSM STJ MHK HUT END OKC 25 ESE SPS 40 WNW ABI 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL HIB 30 NW MQT 45 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 45 WSW GLS CLL 55 WSW TYR ACT 25 S BWD JCT DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF MRF INK 40 E TCC DHT EHA LAA TAD 4SL 25 NNE SOW EED DRA 60 NW P38 U24 PUC 50 SE RKS RWL LND COD BZN 30 S MSO 40 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PNHDL/NW TX/WRN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY.... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SUPPORTED BY SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...STORMS NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHERE DRY MID-LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERLIE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS...STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS INTENSE ZONAL NORTHERN PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN NORTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN TROUGH...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SURFACE DATA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TILT AND TURN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MCS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD/ NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS SEEMS ONLY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT BROADER-SCALE SEVERE WIND EVENT...BUT SUFFICIENT MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO SUPPORT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SQUALL LINE. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU SHORT WAVE...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL NOT SUPPORT EASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER PLAINS...BUT STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING APPEARS LIKELY NEAR HEAVY RAINS CORES. THUS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING APPEARS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS...WHICH SHOULD SURGE SOUTHWARD/ EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE CORE OVERNIGHT. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 06/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 01:08:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 20:08:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506100119.j5A1Jht7028578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100117 SWODY1 SPC AC 100115 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PVW 35 NE PVW 30 ENE AMA 55 W GAG 10 SSE GAG CSM 20 SE LTS 65 SSE CDS 75 ESE LBB 35 ESE LBB 25 ESE PVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 15 SSE INK 55 NW BGS AMA 20 ENE LBL GCK GLD LIC 35 NNW LIC 55 ESE CYS 20 NNW SNY MHN 35 NNW BUB MHE ATY 35 SW STC 10 ENE MKT MCW 10 NNE DSM STJ MHK HUT END OKC 25 ESE SPS 40 WNW ABI 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL HIB 30 NW MQT 45 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 45 WSW GLS CLL 55 WSW TYR ACT 25 S BWD JCT DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF MRF INK 40 E TCC DHT EHA LAA TAD 4SL 25 NNE SOW EED DRA 60 NW P38 U24 PUC 50 SE RKS RWL LND COD BZN 30 S MSO 40 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PNHDL/NW TX/WRN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY.... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SUPPORTED BY SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...STORMS NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHERE DRY MID-LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERLIE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS...STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS INTENSE ZONAL NORTHERN PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN NORTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN TROUGH...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SURFACE DATA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TILT AND TURN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MCS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD/ NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS SEEMS ONLY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT BROADER-SCALE SEVERE WIND EVENT...BUT SUFFICIENT MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO SUPPORT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SQUALL LINE. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU SHORT WAVE...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL NOT SUPPORT EASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER PLAINS...BUT STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING APPEARS LIKELY NEAR HEAVY RAINS CORES. THUS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING APPEARS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS...WHICH SHOULD SURGE SOUTHWARD/ EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE CORE OVERNIGHT. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 06/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 00:48:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 19:48:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506120059.j5C0xPG8013019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120056 SWODY1 SPC AC 120054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 SW P07 25 NW INK 70 ENE 4CR 25 SW LHX 20 N LAA 15 N P28 20 SE ICT 35 E OKC 20 E SPS 15 N ABI 35 S DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE LSE AUW 35 WSW CMX 55 NW ANJ 25 SE ANJ 35 E MTW 30 SSE MKE 30 N MLI 20 SSE LSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GPT 40 ENE MLU 60 SW ARG 20 WSW TXK 10 SW SEP 20 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 SSE CNM ROW 30 NW SVC 25 NW PHX 20 SSW IGM 30 S U31 75 NW WMC 40 N BNO 25 N PDT 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 40 SSW ACY 10 N SHD 35 SW 5I3 20 SE CSV 40 ESE CHA 45 WNW AND 10 E AGS 45 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO OK / SRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN WI AND INTO UPPER MI... ...SRH HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SRN KS / THE WRN HALF OF OK... MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED FROM WRN PORTIONS OF TX INTO OK. AS WRN U.S. TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS /30 TO 40 KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL TORNADOES. ATTM...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. WITH TIME...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EWD / ENEWD INTO WRN OK AND PERHAPS SRN KS. THOUGH TORNADO THREAT MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT -- PARTICULARLY IF STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR...HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST WITH THIS MCS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #1302. ...ERN WI / UPPER MI... THOUGH AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY STABILIZE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS ACROSS ERN WI INTO PARTS OF THE U. P. OF MI. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN WI INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI...AND 45 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW INDICATED INVOF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NWD...WITH OVERALL STORM WEAKENING TO CONTINUE. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE -- POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- WITHIN BANDS E / NE OF THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN AL / WRN GA / NRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THREAT TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD DECREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORM WEAKENING. ..GOSS.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 05:50:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 00:50:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506120601.j5C61Zsn016757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120559 SWODY1 SPC AC 120557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW LBL 30 W GAG 20 NE SPS 45 W MWL 30 WSW ABI 75 ESE LBB 30 ESE PVW 40 NNE AMA 40 SW LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 20 E LIC 20 WNW BBW 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 35 NNE CNM 35 ENE ONM 20 WNW GNT 10 SSW DPG 30 NNE TWF 50 WSW MSO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE MOT 30 NNW ABR 30 NW RWF 35 E MSP 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL HGR 30 ESE MGW 35 ENE CRW 20 S 5I3 20 SSW HSS 25 NE AGS 35 SW CHS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN N TX...AND EWD INTO SWRN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION SWD ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY-NEGATIVE TILT. MEANWHILE...LARGE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD FROM ERN NM / SERN CO TO NRN NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF ARLENE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NWD ACROSS TN / KY AND INTO IN BY 13/12Z. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE -- PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX AND OK. A MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING STORMS NOW OVER PARTS OF NERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK / SWRN KS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EVOLVING INTO AN MCS...AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS WRN OK / SRN KS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS SWRN OK / INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WWD / NWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ONGOING STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AWAY FROM CONVECTION / S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD THEN SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. SCENARIO ACROSS WRN / CENTRAL KS IS MORE COMPLICATED...AS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOCATION / INTENSITY OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN / BACK WITH TIME ACROSS OK / WRN PORTIONS OF TX AS TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ASSUMING PERSISTENT W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES INDEED EVOLVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE / SRN OK...THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NWD TOWARD NEB WHILE TRAILING TROUGH STRENGTHENS / SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY FAVOR MORE LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WITH TIME...AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS TX / OK / KS AND TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY. THOUGH PARTS OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED TO SOME DEGREE BY EARLIER CONVECTION...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... MOIST AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WI DURING THE DAY...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...LESS OBVIOUS LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER / MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE HAIL / WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ...TN VALLEY REGION... REMNANTS OF ARLENE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NWD ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND KY THIS PERIOD....WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS -- MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO E / NE OF CIRCULATION CENTER. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 11:34:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 06:34:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506121145.j5CBjktR012686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121143 SWODY1 SPC AC 121141 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW LBL 20 NNW GAG 30 NNW END 40 W ADM 50 SSW SPS 65 NW ABI 10 SE LBB 30 NNW PVW 35 SW LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 20 E LIC 20 WNW BBW 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 30 NNW ABR 30 NW RWF 35 E MSP 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL HGR 30 ESE MGW 35 ENE CRW 30 N TRI 15 N AVL 40 SE SPA 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 WNW GNT 10 SSW DPG 30 NNE TWF 25 NNW S80 40 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES WELL DEPICTED IN W/V IMAGERY...WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FEATURES ARE WELL DEFINED THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE FOCUSING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT AS CLEAR. LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS CURRENTLY EVOLVING AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS KS THIS AM...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN CO INTO OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF 40KT LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH NAM TOO AGGRESSIVE TAKING STORMS EWD ACROSS OK THIS AM AND AS A RESULT MISHANDLING THE AIRMASS PROPERTIES. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM KS MCS WILL LIKELY EXTEND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO TX PANHANDLE AND BE A FOCUS FOR THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLY VEERED SHEAR PROFILES...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO BE INITIAL MODE OF STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES LIKELY IN MOST INTENSE STORMS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ERN NM WILL BE A FOCUS FOR RELATIVELY EARLY INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS INTO TX PANHANDLE AS UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD ADVECTION SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING. THIS POTENTIAL EARLY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE EXPANSION OF THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES INTO MUCH OF WRN OK. HOWEVER LOCATION ON E/W BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND AVAILABILITY OF VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR. AS TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS'S AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASING WIND THREAT. ...TN VALLEY REGION... REMNANTS OF ARLENE CURRENTLY NWRN AL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD TO OH RIVER WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG AND TO E OF TRACK TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS. ...GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES... MUCH OF THIS REGION COVERED BY A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT ON TOP OF RIDGE...THUS ANY SEVERE STORM SHOULD REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 16:30:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 11:30:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506121641.j5CGfsQj006880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121631 SWODY1 SPC AC 121629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW AMA 60 E DHT 45 SW GAG 35 WSW END 10 NW PNC 10 N TUL 45 NW MLC 25 W ADM 35 ENE ABI 30 WSW ABI 15 ESE LBB 35 S AMA 35 NW AMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 45 ENE LIC 30 WSW AKO 40 E CYS 15 W CDR 45 ENE CDR 25 SW BBW 15 W LNK 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OWB 35 NE EVV 10 SSW BMG 50 E BMG 40 WSW LUK 15 NE LEX 20 NNE LOZ 20 NNW TYS 25 WSW TYS 30 N CHA 50 SE BNA 15 NNW BWG OWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 45 SE JMS 35 SW BRD 60 SSE DLH 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL 30 S CXY 20 SW CHO 10 NNW DAN 25 NNW FLO 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 N INW 10 NW ELY 45 SW BOI 30 N BKE 50 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN/WRN TX AND WRN/SRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GRT BASIN TO THE SRN RCKYS SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. SATELLITE/RAOB AND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING...WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA APPARENT UPSTREAM AT LEAST AS FAR NW AS ID. THIS SUPPORTS MODEL FORECASTS OF SYSTEM CLOSING OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLNS BY 12Z MONDAY. FARTHER SE...EMBEDDED IMPULSE NOW OVER SW CO SHOULD CONTINUE ESEWD TODAY...WHILE SIMILAR FEATURE OVER SE NM LIFTS ENE INTO TX. SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL STATES HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY RECENT SERIES OF MCSS WHICH MOVED THROUGH REGION. A FAIRLY DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY STORMS NOW IN PROGRESS...EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NE TO NEAR MKC. FARTHER S...A WEAKER BNDRY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER SW/CNTRL AND ERN OK. ELSEWHERE...RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE EAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.S. ARLENE...NOW CENTERED NEAR BNA...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN DEEP S/SWLY FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF HIGH. ...WRN/NW TX INTO OK/SE KS... SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 16C/...COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF ERN NM VORT LOBE... WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOA 4000 J PER KG/ OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX LATER TODAY...S AND W OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE NRN PANHANDLE AND NW TX. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING/DIFFLUENT MID AND UPR LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH...SETUP WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. WHILE STRATUS MAY INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE DAY...AND LINEAR FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN SOME AREAS /E.G. ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG WIND SHIFT LINE PROGRESSING E FROM NM/...THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST SOME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STRONG/ POSSIBLY DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN FRINGES OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH DO DEVELOP. GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL VEERING AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...THESE COULD YIELD A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND NEWD INTO WRN/SRN OK. FARTHER S...AREA OF ELEVATED TSTMS NOW N/E OF ABI APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE/MID LVL MOISTURE MAX WHICH HAS BEEN EJECTED NE AHEAD OF MAIN WRN TROUGH. ATTM THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED BEYOND AXIS OF STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR/ INSTABILITY. BUT AS WRN TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...THE STORMS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE STORMS WHICH FORM OVER TX/OK AND SE KS LATER TODAY WILL PROBABLY MERGE INTO SEVERAL BANDS/CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD MOVE/ DEVELOP GENERALLY NEWD. THIS MAY EXTEND A THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL NEWD INTO PARTS OF MO/IA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... MOIST/BACKED LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE SRN PLNS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION...IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM OVER PARTS OF NE CO/WRN NEB AND PERHAPS SW SD. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J PER KG/...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...TN/LWR OH VLYS... REMNANTS OF ARLENE SHOULD TRACK N FROM NEAR BNA TO NEAR EVV BY EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. VWP DATA STILL SHOW AMPLE /30-40 KT 0-1 KM/ LOW LVL SHEAR ALONG AND TO E OF TRACK TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN PARTS OF KY/TN. ...GRT LKS/NERN STATES... MUCH OF THIS REGION COVERED BY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR...BUT SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT ON NRN FRINGE OF RIDGE. CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND PULSE IN NATURE. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR IN A FEW STORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 19:55:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 14:55:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506122006.j5CK6pkR000983@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122002 SWODY1 SPC AC 122000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AMA 50 ENE AMA 55 WNW CSM 30 NNE CSM 10 SE END 20 E PNC 15 NW TUL 35 SSW TUL 20 NNW ADM 35 ENE ABI 30 WSW ABI LBB 25 NE PVW 15 E AMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 25 SE BGS 50 SW LBB 30 NW PVW 10 ENE DHT 50 W EHA 20 NE LHX 25 N LIC 45 WSW SNY 15 W CDR 45 ENE CDR 25 SW BBW 15 W LNK 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE OWB 35 SW BMG 20 N BMG 30 S MIE 25 SSW DAY 25 ESE LUK 30 NW JKL 10 SW TYS 35 WSW TYS 35 SSE CSV 40 SW CSV 20 NE BWG 30 NE OWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE NEL 30 S CXY 20 SW CHO 10 NNW DAN 25 NNW FLO 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 N INW 10 NW ELY 45 SW BOI 30 N BKE 50 NW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE MOT 45 SE JMS 35 SW BRD 60 SSE DLH 20 SSE ANJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NWRN AND W TX THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS... A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH ONGOING STORMS EXTENDS FROM ERN KS SWWD THROUGH NRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD POOL IS WELL DEVELOPED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS NWRN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE AND A LARGE PART OF CNTRL KS. MEAN SLY FLOW ABOVE 6 KM IS SUCH THAT THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING DISTRIBUTED INTO THE COLD POOL...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTIONS OVER ERN KS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKBUILDING INTO OK ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING. THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE MS VALLEY AREA. FARTHER S AND W...A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM W TX NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NM IS CURRENTLY SPREADING EWD THROUGH W TX...AND CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE DRYLINE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. THREAT OF TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN THROUGH CNTRL OK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND AS THE DEEP SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. ...ERN CO...WRN NEB THROUGH NWRN KS... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO ARE SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS. ...TN THROUGH OH VALLEY AREA... THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE IS CURRENTLY OVER WRN KY. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS E AND NE OF THE CENTER WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BREAKS BETWEEN RAINBANDS. POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING MITIGATES THE SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 00:55:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 19:55:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506130106.j5D16Rbt011853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130104 SWODY1 SPC AC 130102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CDS 20 WNW TUL 20 W MLC 25 ENE SPS 30 WSW MWL 30 SSE ABI 50 W ABI 75 NW ABI 25 NE CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 40 ENE BGS 40 WNW CDS 35 WSW EHA 35 SSW LAA 25 NE LAA 25 WSW HLC 40 SSE HLC 35 WNW P28 30 W CSM 25 N BVO 30 NNE MKC 45 WNW LWD 20 SSE FOD 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 35 SSE PGO 45 NE JCT 65 W COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SDF 10 SSE BMG 20 N BMG 20 SSW MIE 25 SSW DAY 35 ESE LUK 25 NNW JKL 35 SE LOZ 45 N CSV 40 SW LEX 20 NNE SDF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 50 SE JMS 35 WSW PIR FSD 25 WNW RST 40 SSW IMT 30 NW ANJ ...CONT... 15 WSW ISP 25 S BGM 15 SSW ERI FDY 30 S UNI 15 NNW HKY 20 ESE SAV ...CONT... 30 WNW PFN 10 E CHA 40 ESE OWB 15 S MVN 35 WSW POF 10 S TXK 50 NW AUS 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSW P07 10 N BGS RTN 30 SE DRO 20 N U28 35 ENE EVW 45 E 3HT 40 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SWRN OK / WRN N TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO / MID MS VALLEYS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID OH VALLEY REGION... ...CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO / MID MS VALLEYS... POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF STONEWALL AND INTO NRN FISHER / NRN JONES COUNTIES IN WRN N TX. WITH MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...TORNADO THREAT -- ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER N...ARCING BAND OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SRN IA SWD ACROSS WRN MO...SWWD INTO NERN OK...THEN WSWWD INTO SWRN OK. STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SWRN MO / SERN KS SWWD INTO SWRN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...AND THUS EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO CONTINUE. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS / REDEVELOPS EWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...SERN INDIANA / SWRN OH / CENTRAL AND ERN KY... REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF ARLENE IS NOW INDICATED ACROSS SRN IN...WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD OVER SERN INDIANA / SWRN OH / CENTRAL AND ERN KY ATTM. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...LIMITED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST WITHIN N-S BAND OF STORMS NOW SHIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KY / SERN INDIANA INTO SWRN OH. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 05:52:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 00:52:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506130604.j5D6492w019565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130601 SWODY1 SPC AC 130600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BEH 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE ABI 55 N ABI 45 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW 20 ENE 9V9 35 W ATY 35 SW AXN 45 NNE MSP 35 NE EAU 10 ESE OSH 25 NNE BEH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 30 E INK 25 SSE LBB 40 N CDS 40 ESE LBL 40 W SNY 55 NNE DGW 85 E LWT 35 WSW HVR 20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 SW DVL 35 ENE JMS 25 SE TVF 15 E INL ...CONT... 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEB BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD THEN MOVE NEWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY / CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD ARC FROM WI SWWD ACROSS SERN MO / AR INTO FAR W TX. ...MID MO / MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS SWWD INTO ERN OK / N TX... VERY COMPLEX BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SHAPING UP FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AS 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS MOIST / POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN KS / ERN OK INTO NRN / WRN MO. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST / MOVE EWD WITH TIME...AND THUS PRECIPITATION / CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE DAY 1 RISK AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 13/18Z. WITH CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION AND SUBSEQUENT AIRMASS RECOVERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION / TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE ATTM. HAVING SAID THAT...POTENTIAL DEFINITELY EXISTS SOMEWHERE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. WITH 65 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXTEND NEWD INTO MO / IA / IL WARM SECTOR...SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENT SUPERCELL STORMS. ATTM...TWO POTENTIALLY MORE FOCUSED AREAS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO EXIST. THE FIRST IS ACROSS SRN MO / NERN OK / NWRN AR -- AN AREA WHICH MAY BE S OF ONGOING CONVECTION / NEAR A POTENTIALLY RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THOUGH SHEAR WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION AS AREA WOULD BE S OF MID-LEVEL JET CORE...INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS / SEVERE THREAT ASSUMING AFOREMENTIONED POSITIONING OF CONVECTION / OUTFLOW. A SECOND MORE FOCUSED THREAT AREA MAY EXTEND FROM SERN SD / NERN NEB ACROSS IA AND ADJACENT SRN MN / SWRN WI...NEAR NOSE OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK / JUST N OF POTENTIAL DRY SLOT. AGAIN -- ASSUMING SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE / UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON...FAVORABLE SHEAR WOULD EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE BACKED E OF SURFACE LOW. ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN -- EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DETERMINE LOCATIONS OF GREATER OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT. ...THE NORTHEAST... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST ACROSS ME WHERE TROUGH / CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...AND AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE LIKELY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF ARLENE REMNANTS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 10:31:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 05:31:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506131042.j5DAgf3l015104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131038 SWODY1 SPC AC 131036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MCW 30 NE RST 35 NW VOK 25 NNE MSN 25 E JVL 25 SSW CGX 10 S DNV 35 SSW HUF 30 SE MVN 25 W MDH 25 E VIH 15 SSW IRK 15 SSE DSM 35 NNE DSM 15 NNE MCW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BEH 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE ABI 55 N ABI 45 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW 20 ENE 9V9 35 W ATY 35 SW AXN 45 NNE MSP 35 NE EAU 10 ESE OSH 25 NNE BEH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 45 SW DVL 35 ENE JMS 25 SE TVF 15 E INL ...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 30 E INK 25 SSE LBB 40 N CDS 40 ESE LBL 40 W SNY 55 NNE DGW 85 E LWT 35 WSW HVR 20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ...EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S... ...CENTRAL U.S... UPPER LOW LOCATED CENTRAL NEB WILL CONTINUE ENEWD REACHING SWRN MN AS A STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAX ROTATES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/WRN OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE NEARLY COUPLED SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ALONG WITH UPPER LOW. THESE DYNAMIC PROCESSES WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL U.S. CONCERNS NOTED IN EARLIER DY1 OUTLOOK WITH THE DISRUPTIVE AFFECTS OF CURRENT MCS ACTIVITY ARE LESSENED. WITH CONVECTION NOW DECREASING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE TO THE N...AHEAD OF THE LOW SYSTEM...NOW EXPECT THAT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE S OF THE LOW CENTER A 60-70 KT 500 MB WIND MAX ACCOMPANIED BY A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL ROTATE NEWD FROM KS ACROSS NRN MO AND INTO MS VALLEY TODAY. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F THE MIXING AND STRONG HEATING WITHIN DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE LOW SYSTEM. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH 50-60 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR AND A WEAKENING CAP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SRN MN/IA INTO MO. SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN MN/ERN IA INTO WI AND NRN IL WILL FAVOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE ENHANCED SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. STORMS WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER FURTHER S ACROSS MO WHERE MORE HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW/MID LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FLOW SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO SHORT LINES AND BOWS BY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT INTO WRN OH VALLEY. THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO NRN TX WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE THRU THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 7OF... WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY BE 25KT OR LESS...THE STEEP LOW/MID LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ...THE NORTHEAST... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST ACROSS ME WHERE TROUGH / CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...AND AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE LIKELY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF ARLENE REMNANTS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 16:22:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 11:22:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506131633.j5DGXpbi017421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131632 SWODY1 SPC AC 131630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FSD 20 E BKX 15 SW MSP 35 NW VOK 25 NNE MSN 20 N CGX 30 WNW IND 20 N EVV 30 SE MVN 30 WSW MDH 25 E VIH 15 SSW IRK 30 SE DSM FOD 15 ENE FSD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GRR 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE ABI 55 N ABI 25 WSW FSI 40 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW 9V9 35 W ATY 25 SW AXN 60 SSW DLH 25 SW IWD 30 NW IMT 25 SW ESC 15 SSW MBL 20 SSW GRR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE P07 55 W SJT 65 NW ABI 35 WNW LTS 10 S P28 30 WSW RSL 50 WSW HLC 40 SW IML SNY 70 SSE 81V 85 E LWT 35 WSW HVR 20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPR MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE MID/UPR MS VLY...THE OZARKS AND THE SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG NEB CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE E/NE INTO SE MN THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM BAND OF FAST WLY FLOW OVERSPREADS PACIFIC NW. 90 KT JET STREAK NOW ROUNDING BASE OF NEB SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM SRN KS INTO NRN MO LATER TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING MORE ENE INTO IL EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM NE NEB/SE SD LOW SHOULD SWEEP E INTO CNTRL PARTS OF IA/MO BY EVENING. FARTHER E...CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONFLUENCE BAND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS IA. IN THE EAST...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.S. ARLENE IS NOW CENTERED NEAR LAN/FNT. THE FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS ENE INTO SRN ONTARIO. ...MID/UPR MS VLY... POTENT SETUP NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL STATES COULD YIELD SCATTERED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS NEWD INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLYS. WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND UNINHIBITED HEATING LIKELY TO CONTINUE...STORMS SHOULD FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF STRONGEST CONVERGENCE NEAR AND E OF NEB/SD SURFACE LOW. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SSE ALONG CONFLUENCE BAND ACROSS SRN MN INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND...PROBABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO CNTRL MO. AVERAGE MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG IN SRN MN/NRN IA TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG IN NRN MO/NW IL. AT THE SAME TIME...CONTINUED NE MOTION OF KS SPEED MAX WILL BOOST DEEP SHEAR TO AROUND 40 KTS IN NRN IA...TO NEAR 60 KTS IN NRN MO. COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY...STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND ORIENTATION OF SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO CONFLUENCE BAND ALL SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF ASCENT/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THE SUPERCELLS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO BANDS/CLUSTERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE E INTO PARTS OF WI/IL/IND BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...OZARKS/ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS... STRONGER CINH AND WEAKER LAGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OZARKS AND ERN PARTS OF SRN PLNS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS NOW OVER CNTRL KS. LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LIKELY WILL ALSO BE OF IMPORTANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN OK AND SW MO. WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 35-45 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR... PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND WILL EXHIBIT LESS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RELATIVE TO THE MID/UPR MS VLY. BUT POTENTIAL WILL NEVERTHELESS EXIST FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS COULD MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND AS REGION COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT /JET ENTRANCE REGION OF MID MS VLY SPEED MAX/ LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ...NERN STATES... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ME...WHERE MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR INVOF WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS /30 KT WNW FLOW AT 500 MB/. A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD ALSO FORM IN UPSTATE NY...ZONE OF ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR AND COOLER AIR ALOFT E OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 20:28:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 15:28:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506132039.j5DKdqUk020331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132031 SWODY1 SPC AC 132029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BKX 40 NE BKX 25 ENE RWF 15 NNW RST 10 WSW LSE 15 W JVL 25 N MMO 20 ESE BMI 20 WSW MTO 15 NNE MDH 25 NW POF 25 ESE HRO 30 WSW PGO 20 N DUA 25 NNE ADM 20 NE TUL 45 NNW SGF 30 W COU 25 SSW IRK 30 NE P35 30 NNW LWD 25 ENE OMA 45 SE SUX 30 NNW SUX 20 SSW FSD 20 SSE BKX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GRR 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 SSW PRX SEP 15 WNW ABI 70 S CDS 40 SE CDS 15 NNE BVO 25 SSE TOP 20 E LNK 60 ENE ANW 9V9 30 ESE ABR 20 W AXN 50 SW DLH 25 SW IWD 30 NW IMT 25 SW ESC 15 SSW MBL 20 SSW GRR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA ...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 35 SW P07 20 SE MAF 30 NNE BGS 55 E LBB 15 WNW CDS 30 N CSM 10 NNW END 35 SW ICT 15 SE HUT 25 ENE RSL 25 N HLC 35 SW IML 20 SSE BFF 35 NNW GCC 65 SW MLS 85 E LWT 70 NE LWT 30 NE HVR ...CONT... 45 NNE FCA 30 SSE FCA 30 SSE 3TH 25 N PUW 40 WSW GEG 20 WSW 4OM 50 W 4OM 65 SE BLI 40 SSE BLI 25 WNW BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MIDWEST ALONG THE MID MS VLY TO THE OZARKS/ERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO N TX... ...IA/SRN MN/SWRN WI TO NRN IL... POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS WAS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 80KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREAD EAST ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STORMS WERE NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN IA AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE DEEP UPR LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT ENHANCED ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID LEVEL JET MAX. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MDT RISK AREA ARE FCST TO INCREASINGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS STORMS FORM NEARER THE LOW CENTER...FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER LATER THIS EVENING. DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS REGION. LATER THIS EVENING....CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...FROM IA INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL. WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS AS PROCESS UNFOLDS. ...WRN IL/MO/NWRN AR/ERN OK... BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH SRN EDGE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHEAR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...FROM MO/SWRN IL...SWWD TO OK AND N TX...WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT MULTICELLS. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO ALIGN WITH THE BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...OR ALONG RESULTING STORM OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:58:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:58:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506140109.j5E19lqZ032531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140106 SWODY1 SPC AC 140104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW TOL 15 SW FDY LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 30 SSE PRX SEP 15 WNW ABI 65 S CDS 65 SE CDS ADM 25 E TUL 15 NW CNU 15 NNW STJ 50 SE OMA 20 E OFK 35 SSE MHE 15 WNW ATY 30 SE FAR 35 NNE BRD 25 SW IWD 35 NE GRB 35 W MKG 20 NNW TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 35 W MCN 15 WSW ATL 45 NNE HKY 15 E LYH 30 SW MRB 30 SW MGW 10 ENE HTS 55 NNW HSV 40 SSW ELD 30 NW AUS 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 95 SSE MRF 20 SE MAF 20 ENE LBB 10 SW CDS 20 ESE LTS 30 E OKC 15 SE FNB 40 W BIE 25 NE LBF 30 E RAP 40 E MLS 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JAX 30 ESE SRQ 30 E FMY 30 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 30 SSE FCA 30 SSE 3TH 40 NE PUW 20 NW GEG 40 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS... ...MID AND UPPER MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS SWWD INTO ERN OK / N TX... TWO ENHANCED AREAS OF SEVERE THREAT EXIST ATTM -- ONE OVER IA / MN AND VICINITY WITHIN CIRCULATION OF UPPER LOW...AND THE OTHER IN A BROKEN BAND FROM IL SWWD INTO N TX. WITHIN THE NRN AREA -- OVER IA / MN AND VICINITY...GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF / WEAK TORNADOES. THREAT IN THIS AREA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. FURTHER S...BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED ACROSS IL...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD INTO INDIANA. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT -- PARTICULARLY E OF INDIANA...BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST SWWD ACROSS MO -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THOUGH STORMS ARE MORE NUMEROUS FROM SWRN MO SWWD INTO N TX...SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION. NONETHELESS...EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM SERN OK INTO N TX SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...THE NORTHEAST... CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NY AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE -- NOW OVER SRN ONTARIO. THOUGH DIURNAL COOLING / STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY...A LINGERING / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 05:18:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 00:18:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506140529.j5E5TGB1010849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140526 SWODY1 SPC AC 140524 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 40 NW HTS 50 SW CMH 25 NE FDY 35 SE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH 25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 45 SSW BMG 45 N LAF 30 NE MSN 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 15 W ELP 35 SE ABQ 50 ESE GUC 30 WNW LIC 25 S GLD 60 NNE AMA 30 ESE CDS 10 SE DUA 15 NNW LIT 25 ENE POF 30 E SLO MMO 35 ENE DBQ 10 ENE MCW 15 SSE AXN 30 WNW INL ...CONT... 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT 40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO 10 SSE SVE 10 WNW RBL 40 W MHS 40 WSW RDM 65 E BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OH / NRN AND WRN WV / WRN PA / WRN NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER WI SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION...SEWD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...SWD ACROSS TX. ...GREAT LAKES / OH AND TN VALLEYS WSWWD INTO TX... SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY / DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT. THOUGH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO TX...MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION. EXPECT STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN IN / WRN OH / LOWER MI TO ORGANIZE RAPIDLY INTO A LINE / BOW ECHO INVOF FRONT. WITH ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW IN THE 35 TO 50 KT RANGE FORECAST AT LOW TO MID LEVELS...STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD / ENEWD. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDESPREAD / DAMAGING WIND EVENT TO BE UNDERWAY -- ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO -- ACROSS ERN OH...WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN PA / WRN NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AT LEAST A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST EWD INTO ERN PA / ERN NY. FURTHER S ACROSS THE TN VALLEYS...SHEAR SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ALONG / AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MULTICELL / WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS. FURTHER WWD...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAKER YET. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS / TRANSPECOS REGION. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR FRONT...AND NWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM WHERE ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT STRONG / SHORT-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN ROCKIES... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW / NRN ROCKIES WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ID / WRN MT -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG FRONT / TROUGH...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. WITH 50-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY LIKELY LIMITING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 12:33:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 07:33:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506141244.j5ECiaMr008731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141242 SWODY1 SPC AC 141241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 40 NW HTS 50 SW CMH 25 NE FDY 35 SE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH 25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 45 SSW BMG 45 N LAF 30 NE MSN 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT 40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO RNO 40 S SVE 50 WNW SVE 40 NNW RBL 45 WNW MHS 40 WSW RDM 65 E BLI ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 15 N ONM 15 W TAD 35 WSW GCK 15 SSW GAG 20 E LTS 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 20 SSE MVN 10 W SLO 35 NNW STL 35 SW UIN 20 NW IRK 30 NE DSM 10 E STC 45 NNE ELO ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GRT LKS SWWD INTO THE TN VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW OVER MN WILL CONTINUE E TO NEAR LK HURON THIS PERIOD AS LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW OVERSPREADS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN RCKYS. BELT OF FAST FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF MN LOW WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP E/NE ACROSS THE OH VLY TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WI SHOULD SHIFT E MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH UPR SYSTEM. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SURGES/TROUGHS TRAILING S FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GRT LKS/OH VLY. FARTHER S...A PREVIOUS FRONTAL SURGE /IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS OVER THE SRN PLNS ON MONDAY/ WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S/SW ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND TX. ...GRT LKS/OH AND TN VLYS... SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS/FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINES EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS INTO THE NRN APPALACHIANS TODAY/TONIGHT AS SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BE FUELED BY PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT NWD WITH T.S. ARLENE...MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SERIES OF TROUGHS/FRONTAL SURGES ROUNDING SRN SIDE OF SURFACE LOW CROSSING WI AND MI. THE MOST SUSTAINED...AND PERHAPS STRONGEST...CONVECTIVE BAND MAY DEVELOP ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE MAIN COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE ATTM EXTENDS FROM CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL IL AND SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY OVER LWR MI/IND AND WRN OH /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/. 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW TO WSWLY FLOW AND PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO LINES WITH A FEW LONG-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS MAY YIELD A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT...ESPECIALLY IN OH/WRN PA AND PERHAPS WRN NY. LONG... SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS MAY ALSO SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST EWD INTO ERN PA/ERN NY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...TN VLY... MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT S OF OH VLY JET STREAM...BUT CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER /UP TO 2500 J PER KG/. WEAK SHEAR/HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY YIELD PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ...W TX/ERN NM... SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WILL FORM LATER TODAY IN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ ASSOCIATED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PLUME ALONG AND S OF WEAK SRN HI PLNS COLD FRONT. VERY WEAK SHEAR /AOB 20 KTS/ SHOULD KEEP INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHORT LIVED. BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. LATE IN THE PERIOD...STRENGTHENING LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED STORMS IN THE TX PANHANDLE REGION. ...NRN RCKYS... SATELLITE DATA SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OFF THE ORE/WA CST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER ID AND WRN MT LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS IN DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MAY DELAY ONSET OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER REGION. BUT INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE LIKELY WILL RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AS 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY. 50-60 KT SWLY MID LVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO ORGANIZE STORMS/PROMOTE LONGEVITY...AND COULD YIELD A FEW WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 16:18:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 11:18:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506141629.j5EGTUj1008535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141618 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 30 ESE LUK 30 E MIE 30 SW JXN 45 SSE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH 25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 35 SSE BMG 45 SW SBN 35 S OSH 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT 40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO RNO 40 S SVE 50 WNW SVE 40 NNW RBL 45 WNW MHS 40 WSW RDM 65 E BLI ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 15 N ONM 15 W TAD 25 NW LBL 30 WNW FSI 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 35 NE PAH 50 NNW EVV 15 NNE MTO 30 NE SPI 35 SE OTM 30 NE DSM 10 E STC 15 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... LOW...SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NRN WI THIS AM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES MOVING INTO SERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. S/WV TROUGH ROTATING EWD AHEAD OF LOW INTO WRN OH VALLEY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON BOTH WV IMAGERY AND 500MB HEIGHT FALLS. 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND PA TONIGHT. COLD FRONT AT 16Z MOVING EWD ACROSS LM AND THEN SWWD TO SRN MO WILL CONTINUE EWD. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDES THE FRONT EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70F. STRONG HEATING WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE WEAK CAP WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY E OF COLD FRONT. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN IND WILL FORM SHORT LINES AND BOWS AS THEY MOVE/PROPAGATE EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ERN OH VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS PA AND NY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CONTINUE EWD THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONCERN FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE THIS AREA THAN FURTHER S...THUS DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...MID MS/TN VALLEY... A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AVAILABLE E OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG INTO WRN TN VALLEY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON IN STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS THAN CAN DEVELOP. WHILE CATEGORICAL RISK WILL REMAIN SLIGHT WILL INCREASE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES SWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. ...TX... BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING MCS CONVECTION IN CENTRAL TX WILL LIKELY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. AS AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...PAC NW... S/WV TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS WA/OR ALONG WITH STRONG WIND MAX WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NRN ID INTO WRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON PRECEEDED BY SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND EVENTS FROM HIGH BASED STORMS. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 19:59:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 14:59:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506142010.j5EKAUoY031547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142003 SWODY1 SPC AC 142001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BUF 15 N BFD 15 N LBE 35 NE CRW 20 NNW JKL 60 E BWG 40 SSE SDF 40 SSW LUK 15 NNE LUK 35 E MIE 45 SSE AZO 25 ENE AZO 15 SSW MBS 55 SE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MSS 35 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 10 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH 30 SW MEM 35 ESE PAH 20 SE BMG 35 NE LAF 20 S OSH 25 WSW MQT 65 NNW ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP CNM HOB 30 SSE MAF 15 NE SJT 15 SSW JCT 45 ENE DRT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR BHB ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 10 E LVM 30 NE MLD 30 S ENV 20 S U31 LOL 80 NE SVE 35 NE 4LW 55 N BNO 15 N ALW 50 SW GEG 45 NNE EPH 15 WNW 4OM 45 NW 4OM 70 E BLI 60 NE SEA 25 ESE SEA 10 WNW SEA 30 NE CLM 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 25 SW 4SL 30 ESE RTN 20 NNW DHT 50 NNE CDS 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 NW DYR 40 NNE PAH 50 NNW EVV 15 NNE MTO 20 E PIA 30 W DBQ 20 NNE RST 70 SSW DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO....AND SMALL PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA/WEST VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE TN VLY TO IND...ERN WI... THE U.P. OF MI...NY/PA/WV/WRN MD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX... ...GREAT LAKES/UPR OH VLY... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE CYCLONE SPINNING ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE ERN/SERN FLANK OF THE VORTEX EXTENDS FROM MI SWD TO NEAR THE OH/IND BORDER THEN SWWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER TO KY/TN. LARGE SCALE DPVA AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WHERE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A 50-60KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX COINCIDENT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORMS. A COMBINATION OF CELLULAR AND LINEAR CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM LWR MI TO NRN KY. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWED STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH FAST CELL MOTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS...AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED OVER SERN LWR MI AND ERN OH. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES BEYOND LATE AFTERNOON...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO PARTS OF WV/WRN PA AND WRN NY BY EVENING. ...TN VLY WSWWD TO ERN TX... THERMAL GRADIENT DEFINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GENERALLY MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NONETHELESS...A FEW HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR. ...WEST TX... AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY ALONG SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INK TO JCT. ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SEE SPC MCD NUMBER 1347 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THIS AREA. ...NRN ROCKIES... STRONGER DESTABILIZATION HAS SO FAR BEEN INHIBITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE BITTERROOTS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AS WELL AS ACROSS SERN ID...SHOULD SPUR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND FAST-MOVING CELLS. A FEW HAIL REPORTS...OR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING FROM ERN/SERN ID INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. ..CARBIN.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 00:31:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 19:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506150042.j5F0gD8w019307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150039 SWODY1 SPC AC 150037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 SE UCA 10 S ABE 40 WSW RIC 20 ENE HSS CHA 30 N HSV 35 NNE MSL 25 NNE CSV 15 NNE 5I3 35 WNW EKN 25 NE MGW 15 S FKL 30 W ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DMN 70 NE SAD 25 SW 4SL 30 ESE RTN 20 NNW DHT 40 NW BGS 35 W ACT 30 ENE SHV 20 E UOX 45 SE BWG 40 NE SDF 25 E MIE 30 N BMI 30 W DBQ 20 NNE RST 70 SSW DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 10 E LVM 45 WNW VEL 20 NNW 4BL 20 NW GCN 55 SSE NFL 80 NE SVE 35 NE 4LW 55 N BNO 15 N ALW 50 SW GEG 45 NNE EPH 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 45 N BML 20 ENE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION... GENERAL / SLOW WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH BROKEN LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN NY / WRN PA / WV SWWD INTO ERN TN -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THIS REGION. STRONGER STORMS ATTM PERSIST FROM SRN WV SWWD...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS INDICATED. THOUGH SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AREAWIDE...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA -- AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE FURTHER N ACROSS WRN PA / WRN NY -- FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THOUGH CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS W OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL MAY EXTEND EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN AND WRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...FRONT REMAINS WELL W OF CONVECTION OVER NRN PARTS OF THIS REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN OH. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY / BEHIND ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE...DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WEAK. THOUGH A SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH ANY STORM WHICH COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA...CHANCES FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS STABILIZES. ...PARTS OF TX / SERN NM... MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD PERSISTS INVOF COLD FRONT ACROSS TX. THOUGH SCATTERED STRONG / LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SERN TX WWD INTO W TX / SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIURNALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SERN NM / THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST...SUPPLYING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...A FEW HAIL / WIND EVENTS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...WRN MT / SERN ID... A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN MT ALONG TAIL END OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NEWD INTO SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA / SRN ALBERTA. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE / ROTATING STORMS...INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MT. THIS COMBINED WITH FURTHER STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS AFTER SUNSET SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. AN ISOLATED WIND / HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN. ..GOSS.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 05:31:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 00:31:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506150542.j5F5ghWY017110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150540 SWODY1 SPC AC 150538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PBG 10 S MPV 10 SW EEN 25 NNE BDR 35 NW ILG 40 W CXY 20 ESE DUJ 20 E JHW 30 NNE BUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 40 WNW FYV 20 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 25 SW CSM 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55 NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 50 NW SHR 25 NW WEY 25 SW DLN 50 N 27U 25 SSW GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TUS 30 WNW SOW 35 WNW GUP 25 N 4BL 25 SSW U28 40 ENE MLF 45 NE ELY 40 NNW ENV 40 NNE OWY 75 E 4LW 50 NNW SVE 20 NNW MHS 70 NE MFR 45 S PDT 45 ENE S80 35 NNE CTB ...CONT... 55 NE MOT 50 ENE BIS 20 NNE PIR 40 ENE ANW 45 N FNB 25 SE OJC 20 NNW UMN 35 WSW FSM 15 E ADM 40 N FTW 30 N ACT 20 NE LFK 35 ESE MEI 55 E MCN 30 NNE FLO 30 E RIC 45 NNE CHO 30 NNE BKW 25 WSW CMH 10 NNW FDY 20 SE DTW ...CONT... 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM MT SWD TO NM...AND EWD INTO PARTS OF KS / OK... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL LOW / TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA / THE GREAT LAKES REGION / THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE SECOND TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN...RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ON THE SMALLER SCALE...SEVERAL FEATURES SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE E COAST STATES. FURTHER W...THIS BOUNDARY -- INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... WHILE WLY COMPONENT ALOFT ADVECTS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER / STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DEVELOPING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TX NWD INTO ERN MT. WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM NRN NM NWD INTO MT. WLY WINDS ALOFT ABOVE SELY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR DEVELOPING STORMS TO ORGANIZE / BECOME SEVERE. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH GREATEST THREAT MAY INITIALLY EXIST ACROSS MT NEAR EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT / BENEATH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. WITH TIME HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION -- PARTICULARLY INTO THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MCS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN CO / WRN KS...AND THEN MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF KS / OK. ALONG WITH HAIL POTENTIAL...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO EVOLVE WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ...THE NORTHEAST... LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW / INVOF FRONT...WHILE SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND ERN CANADA UPPER LOW. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST. SMALL BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...AND GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PERHAPS MOST LIKELY INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY COOLS. ...SERN ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES... THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS EXTENDING AS FAR WWD AS ERN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE STORMS BEGIN DECREASING DURING THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 12:36:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 07:36:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506151247.j5FClHO7029874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151245 SWODY1 SPC AC 151243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW BML 35 W EEN 30 NNE EWR 20 N CXY 20 NNW PSB 50 SE BUF 40 NNE ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 40 WNW FYV 20 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 25 SW CSM 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55 NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 50 NW SHR 25 NW WEY 25 SW DLN 50 N 27U 25 SSW GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB ...CONT... 15 NNE NEL 25 SE CXY 45 ESE MGW 20 E UNI 30 NE DAY 25 NW TOL 55 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 45 ESE SOW 35 WNW GUP 25 N 4BL 25 SSW U28 25 SE MLF 10 SSE ELY 55 SSE TWF 55 WSW SUN 75 E 4LW 50 NNW SVE 20 NNW MHS 70 NE MFR 45 S PDT 45 ENE S80 35 NNE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 50 ENE BIS 20 NNE PIR 40 ENE ANW 45 N FNB 20 ESE MKC 20 NNW SGF 45 E FSM 40 NNW TXK 10 NNE FTW 45 SW ABI 40 SSW SJT 15 S JCT 65 NNE CLL 45 N POE MEI 25 NNW MCN 10 ESE RDU 20 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS S/E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NY AND PA... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND OVER ONTARIO/ QUEBEC THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM IN THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED THE OH VLY YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE NE INTO QUEBEC CANADA AND WEAKEN...WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SRN MI SWEEPS E INTO PA/NY. IN THE WEST...IMPULSE NOW OVER WA/ORE SHOULD MOVE NE INTO ALBERTA. FARTHER S...A WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ATTM IN WV IMAGERY OVER AZ/UT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE E/SE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE HI PLAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE LWR GRT LKS...AND BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY HOLDS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY IN ERN NY. ...NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS TO CNTRL/SRN PLNS... MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED LEE TROUGHING. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER LIMITED OVER THE NORTH...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER NE NM/THE TX-OK PANHANDLE REGION AND ERN CO AS OLD FRONTAL SURGE WHICH STALLED IN TX YESTERDAY REDEVELOPS NWD. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY PRESENT SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM MT SWD INTO NRN NM. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM E OF THE MOUNTAINS IN MT /ALONG TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW IN ALBERTA/...AND INVOF WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS IN NE NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. PROXIMITY OF MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS /40+ KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW/ WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN MT. SOMEWHAT WEAKER /35 KT/ BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY IN WY/CO/NM. BOTH REGIONS LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. OVERALL COMBINATION OF UPLIFT/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH WIND. GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRESENCE OF NWD-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE AND SRN BRANCH UPR DISTURBANCE...THE CONVECTION IN CO SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE E/SE INTO KS/OK EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...NRN/ERN NY AND NRN/ERN PA AND NRN NJ... TSTMS WILL FORM AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES AREA OF MODERATELY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS REGION. MI UPR VORT WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /AROUND 7 C PER KM/...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF DIURNAL STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN NRN/ERN NY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE IN AN ELEVATED FASHION E/NEWD INTO WRN/NWRN NEW ENG...WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SEVERE. ...WRN GULF CST TO SERN U.S... AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF OLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM SE TX EWD INTO CAROLINAS. DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE VERY WEAK... ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY DOES DEPICT A WEAK IMPULSE OVER LA/MS. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...A FEW OF THE STORMS LIKELY WILL YIELD HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. STRIATED NATURE OF MID LVL MOISTURE AXIS OVERLYING REGION /WV IMAGERY/ SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO BANDS. BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE SUSTAINED/STRONGLY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 15:53:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 10:53:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506151604.j5FG4r3x026275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151600 SWODY1 SPC AC 151558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 35 W EEN 30 NNE EWR 25 ESE IPT 10 N ELM 20 WNW SYR 15 WSW ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 25 WSW FYV 25 NE MLC 25 NNE ADM 10 NW LTS 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55 NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 20 W SHR 15 ESE WEY 20 SSW DLN 40 NW DLN 25 SSW GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DUG 45 ESE SOW 90 NW GUP 40 NW U17 35 NW U24 20 NNE TWF 35 WNW 27U 45 NE CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 25 NE BIS 35 NE PIR 35 SSW MHE 45 N FNB 25 SE OJC 25 W SGF 20 SE FYV 30 S PGO 25 S PRX 20 NNE TYR 30 S SHV 40 NW HEZ 10 ENE SEM 35 NNE MCN 20 SSE RDU 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 20 WSW BHB ...CONT... 15 ESE NEL 35 SW AOO 20 ESE ZZV 40 WSW MFD 20 SW ARB 70 SE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NWWD INTO EASTERN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... OVERALL PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OFF WEST COAST AND COLD UPPER LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO CONTINUES WITH SOME DEEPENING. S/WV TROUGHS MOVING INLAND PAC NW THEN INTO SRN CANADA AS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER ROCKIES. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SERN CANADA WITH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY REPLACING THE VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE NERN U.S. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD THRU CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING E OF ROCKIES. ...NERN U.S... THE AREA OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS SHRINKING FROM THE W ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CONFINED TO ERN NY/NERN PA AS COOL MARINE AIR REMAINS OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WITH STRONG RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONGOING SRN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AM...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MLCAPES EXPECTED TO CLIMB AT LEAST TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. UNDER NWLY FLOW REGIME E OF ROCKIES RIDGE 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO/WRN KS AND THEN PROPAGATE SEWD WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN PLAINS WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUING AFTER DARK. ...MT/NERN WY... WHILE ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES PAC NW LATE TONIGHT. A MOIST SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MT TODAY WITH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO ERN MT. WITH GOOD HEATING IN SRN AND ERN MT TODAY...MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS PLAINS OF ERN MT/NERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ...GULF COASTAL AREAS... A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE LIKELY VICINITY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 20:23:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 15:23:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506152034.j5FKYa09006731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152031 SWODY1 SPC AC 152029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 10 W DIK 40 NNE RAP 40 NW VTN GRI 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 35 NE MKO 35 SW MKO 25 NNE ADM 50 SSW SPS 60 NNW ABI 35 ESE TCC 40 SW RTN 50 WSW PUB 30 E DGW 40 S GCC 25 SE SHR 25 N COD 45 SSE LVM 25 SSE LVM 25 SW 3HT 10 SW LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 10 ESE PSM ...CONT... 15 ESE NEL 35 SW AOO 20 ESE ZZV 40 WSW MFD 20 SW ARB 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 25 NE BIS 35 NE PIR 35 SSW MHE 45 N FNB 15 SSE MKC 15 NNE UMN 20 SE FYV 45 NW TXK 50 SE PRX 15 E GGG 30 S SHV 30 ENE HEZ 30 SSW SEM 20 SE MCN 30 N CHS 40 N HSE ...CONT... 20 SE DUG 45 ESE SOW 55 SW CEZ 40 NW U17 35 NW U24 20 NNE TWF 35 WNW 27U 45 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS KS/OK/NWRN TX... ...HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS/OK/NWRN TX... SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADS EAST. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS EAST OF THIS CONVECTION IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX NNWWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION IS ALMOST ELIMINATED ACROSS KS/WRN OK AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE 90S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THIS AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO FORM FROM DEEPENING CU FIELDS NOW DEVELOPING FROM WRN OK INTO WRN KS. LATEST WIND PROFILES WERE SHOWING 30-35KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY FROM THESE STORMS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR. TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SITUATED SOUTH TO NORTH FROM NWRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS. HOWEVER... OVERALL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY RELATIVELY HIGH LFC AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AS WELL AS LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS OVER CNTRL OK WAS NOW MOVING SWWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND NWRN TX. WHILE AIR MASS WAS STRONGLY CAPPED AHEAD OF THIS OUTFLOW...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW STORMS TO FORM EXPLOSIVELY IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGH WIND AND A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL EVENTS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT CAN FORM. LACK OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. EVENTUALLY...STORMS OVER KS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY EWD/ESEWD ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ...HIGH PLAINS NEB NWWD TO MT AND TH WRN DAKOTAS... INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS NWWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN WY INTO MT. HOWEVER....MARGINALLY MOIST UPSLOPE SELY FLOW BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WY AND SCNTRL MT. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR AS THESE TSTM CLUSTERS PERSIST EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INFLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 00:34:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 19:34:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506160045.j5G0js5P006352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160043 SWODY1 SPC AC 160041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 10 W DIK 50 NE RAP 30 NNW VTN 30 NNW GRI 20 SSE BIE 40 SSE TOP 35 ENE TUL 25 W MLC SPS 10 ENE CDS 30 ENE AMA 25 NE EHA 45 ESE AKO 35 SSW BFF 30 NNE GCC 30 NW SHR 25 SE BIL 35 NNE BIL 65 SSW GGW 10 NE GGW 60 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 20 NW ACT 40 W BWD 50 SSW SJT 10 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW DMN 15 SSW ONM 40 NNW CEZ 35 NNW BCE 45 WNW ELY 25 NNW EKO 30 E SUN 40 NNW HLN 25 N HVR ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 40 SW BIS 35 NW PIR 20 ESE OFK 30 E MKC 25 W HRO 35 SSE FSM 45 NW TXK 50 SE PRX 15 E GGG 30 S SHV 30 ENE HEZ 20 WSW SEM 65 E MCN 35 N CRE 15 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W CAR 40 ESE AUG ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK 15 NNW HGR 35 NNE PKB 40 NE DAY 15 NW FDY 30 ENE TOL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM CONTINUE SPREADING EWD...PRIMARILY FROM NERN NM THROUGH WRN KS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KS. AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS FROM WRN OK NWD THROUGH CNTRL KS WITH 3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER NWD THROUGH WRN NEB. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SELY N OF THE E-W KS BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS NWD INTO NEB. THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE MODEST 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO PARTS OF OK. THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ENHANCING LIFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER KS. ACTIVITY OVER WRN KS HAS EVOLVED INTO AN MCS AND WILL MERGE WITH DOWNSTREAM SUPERCELLS. AN MCS WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH KS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK CAP INDICATED ON THE 00Z OKC...AMA AND DDC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE MAY CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO WRN OK NEXT FEW HOURS. ...NRN PLAINS... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE SPREADING EWD THROUGH WY AND SE MT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM SERN MT INTO NE WY. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED THAN FARTHER S. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH ERN MT...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO WLY 20 KT AT 6 KM...IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY MIGHT OCCUR AS STORMS APPROACH THE THETA-E AXIS FROM ERN MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. 00Z RAPID CITY RAOB ALSO SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE STRONG CAP SUGGESTS STORMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...SO THE THREAT IN THIS AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 05:48:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 00:48:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506160559.j5G5xjbn008852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160557 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 SW MLU 25 WNW POE 35 W LFK DAL 25 NW MWL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 35 WNW ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 45 N BAM 40 ENE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH ...CONT... 95 NNE DVL 15 NE JMS 40 NNE SUX 20 SSW SZL 20 WNW UOX 25 ENE MEI 10 N DHN SAV 20 ESE FAY 50 S RIC 45 SW DCA 20 NNE EKN 25 SE MFD FDY ARB 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 15 WNW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NWRN STATES...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN U.S.. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NERN U.S. UPPER LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A SERIES OF FRONTAL SURGES. STRONGEST FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH VORT MAX NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS IT ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE NERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... MCS NOW MOVING THROUGH OK SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION AND MODEST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY PART OF THE DAY...WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF MCS OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE HEATING... DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG FROM OK AND NRN TX NWWD THROUGH KS AND NEB. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM THROUGH CO AND WY AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM ERN CO THROUGH WY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY 20-30 KT AT 6 KM WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE...BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE EWD MOVING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT THROUGH MT AND HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF MT WITH CAPE GENERALLY AOB 800 J/KG FARTHER SW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT AND ID. OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING NEWD. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS DURING THE DAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVENING. ...NERN U.S.... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. WSWLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL EXIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30 TO 35 KT MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 12:54:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 07:54:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506161305.j5GD5U8g001101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161255 SWODY1 SPC AC 161253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDS 30 E DHT 40 E LAA 40 ENE GLD 30 N RSL 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 SW MLU 25 WNW POE 35 W LFK DAL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 45 N BAM 40 ENE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 15 WNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE RWI 45 WSW UNI 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 10 NE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE DVL 15 NE JMS 20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 20 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS...OK AND THE NRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS S AND SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN AMPLIFIED SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY STRONG NE PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SHOULD APPROACH THE ORE CST BY 12Z FRIDAY AS ONTARIO UPR LOW SETTLES SE TO LK ONTARIO. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS BAND OF FLOW...NOW OVER CNTRL KS/NW OK...SHOULD REACH THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE IN THE JET APPEARS TO NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION ATTM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ESE TO THE LWR MS VLY EARLY FRIDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE...REINFORCED IN PART BY MCS OUTFLOW...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS SE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. IN THE NW...A N/S COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO FAR WRN MT THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A BUBBLE HIGH THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM SE OK NWWD INTO WRN KS. S OF THE BUBBLE...THERE EXISTS A POOL OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS N TX. EXPECT THAT LLJ WILL BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS CONTINUES SE INTO THE LWR MS VLY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS WRN OK/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION AND SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN BUBBLE HIGH...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DIURNAL UPSLOPE /SELY/ COMPONENT TO LOW LVL FLOW...SUGGEST THAT THE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MLCAPE AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS MAY EXCEED 3500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...35-40 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM JET. AS A RESULT...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO LINEAR MCSS THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SEWD AND AUGMENTS NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ. THE MCSS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SE TOWARD ERN OK/AR/NE TX AND LA...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HIGH WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MCS NOW OVER SE OK MAY REJUVENATE OVER THE ARKLATEX AS SURFACE DESTABILIZES REGION LATER TODAY. FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS MAY YIELD WIND/HAIL SEWD INTO CNTRL LA. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/NRN CO AND PERHAPS WRN SD...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. 25 KT MID LEVEL WLY JET IN THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN WEAKER SHEAR RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S. BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. ...NRN HI PLNS/FAR NRN RCKYS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN SIERRA SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY AND ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS OF WRN MT. THIS WILL FOSTER LOW LVL E/SELY FLOW OVER THE STATE AND MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER REGION AS AREA WILL BE E OF MID/UPR LVL CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WRN PART OF THE STATE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NRN ID TO NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE EAST. HEATING...OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND INCREASING DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND NRN ID. THE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO THE PLAINS. WITH MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 40 KTS...SETUP LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS CONTAINING BOWING SEGMENTS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND INTO LATE EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... RECENT WV SATELLITE DATA SUPPORT GFS SOLUTION DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OH/WRN PA LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE LIKELY WILL LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY/PA LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MD/DE/NJ. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR TIME OF YEAR AND REGION /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S/...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT MID LVL WSW FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO UPR LOW. SETUP MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. GRADUAL RETREAT OF YESTERDAY'S BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONGER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE NYC AREA AND PERHAPS SW NEW ENG. ...ERN LWR MI TO NRN OH... WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER IN WV IMAGERY NOW N OF SSM SHOULD ROTATE S AND THEN SE ACROSS LWR MI LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW FREEZING LVLS...SOME OF THE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL. BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 12:54:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 07:54:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506161306.j5GD6NJt001495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161255 SWODY1 SPC AC 161253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDS 30 E DHT 40 E LAA 40 ENE GLD 30 N RSL 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 SW MLU 25 WNW POE 35 W LFK DAL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 45 N BAM 40 ENE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 15 WNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE RWI 45 WSW UNI 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 10 NE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE DVL 15 NE JMS 20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 20 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS...OK AND THE NRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS S AND SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN AMPLIFIED SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY STRONG NE PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SHOULD APPROACH THE ORE CST BY 12Z FRIDAY AS ONTARIO UPR LOW SETTLES SE TO LK ONTARIO. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS BAND OF FLOW...NOW OVER CNTRL KS/NW OK...SHOULD REACH THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE IN THE JET APPEARS TO NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION ATTM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ESE TO THE LWR MS VLY EARLY FRIDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE...REINFORCED IN PART BY MCS OUTFLOW...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS SE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. IN THE NW...A N/S COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO FAR WRN MT THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A BUBBLE HIGH THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM SE OK NWWD INTO WRN KS. S OF THE BUBBLE...THERE EXISTS A POOL OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS N TX. EXPECT THAT LLJ WILL BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS CONTINUES SE INTO THE LWR MS VLY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS WRN OK/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION AND SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN BUBBLE HIGH...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DIURNAL UPSLOPE /SELY/ COMPONENT TO LOW LVL FLOW...SUGGEST THAT THE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MLCAPE AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS MAY EXCEED 3500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...35-40 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM JET. AS A RESULT...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO LINEAR MCSS THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SEWD AND AUGMENTS NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ. THE MCSS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SE TOWARD ERN OK/AR/NE TX AND LA...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HIGH WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MCS NOW OVER SE OK MAY REJUVENATE OVER THE ARKLATEX AS SURFACE DESTABILIZES REGION LATER TODAY. FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS MAY YIELD WIND/HAIL SEWD INTO CNTRL LA. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/NRN CO AND PERHAPS WRN SD...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. 25 KT MID LEVEL WLY JET IN THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN WEAKER SHEAR RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S. BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. ...NRN HI PLNS/FAR NRN RCKYS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN SIERRA SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY AND ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS OF WRN MT. THIS WILL FOSTER LOW LVL E/SELY FLOW OVER THE STATE AND MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER REGION AS AREA WILL BE E OF MID/UPR LVL CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WRN PART OF THE STATE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NRN ID TO NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE EAST. HEATING...OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND INCREASING DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND NRN ID. THE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO THE PLAINS. WITH MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 40 KTS...SETUP LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS CONTAINING BOWING SEGMENTS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND INTO LATE EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... RECENT WV SATELLITE DATA SUPPORT GFS SOLUTION DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OH/WRN PA LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE LIKELY WILL LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY/PA LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MD/DE/NJ. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR TIME OF YEAR AND REGION /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S/...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT MID LVL WSW FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO UPR LOW. SETUP MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. GRADUAL RETREAT OF YESTERDAY'S BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONGER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE NYC AREA AND PERHAPS SW NEW ENG. ...ERN LWR MI TO NRN OH... WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER IN WV IMAGERY NOW N OF SSM SHOULD ROTATE S AND THEN SE ACROSS LWR MI LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW FREEZING LVLS...SOME OF THE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL. BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 16:40:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 11:40:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506161651.j5GGpLqi025350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161559 SWODY1 SPC AC 161557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDS 45 E DHT 40 E LAA 30 SSE IML 55 NE HLC 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 E ESF 40 NW LFT 25 WNW LFK DAL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 55 WNW WMC 30 NE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 15 NE JMS 20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 25 SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 SE EWN 25 WNW ECG 10 E RIC 20 E CRW 25 SW CMH 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 10 NE OSC ...CONT... 50 NNE BML 35 S 3B1 30 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MONTANA... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW REMAIN OFF PAC NW COAST WHILE UPPER LOW OVER SERN ONTARIO DROPS SWD INTO WRN NY BY TONIGHT. S/WV TROUGHS ROTATING THRU BOTH SYSTEMS WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING ONE ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WA/OR/WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NE ONE IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER ONE ROTATING EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY. NWLY FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS E OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS SWD TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW NOW ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN TX. STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE E OF DIVIDE IN MT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE PAC NW...PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... HAVE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK AREA ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF AFTERNOON FOR THE STRONG HEATING TO REDEVELOP THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEEDED FOR SEVERE STORMS. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH EXPECTED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY SWRN NE/NWRN KS IN UPSLOPE REGIME. INITIALLY HIGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DURING EVENING ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS'S WILL EVOLVE AND ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY MOVE S/SE INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK EARLY TONIGHT. ...MT... RATHER MOIST SWLY FLOW ACROSS WRN HALF OF MT AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH COUPLED WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE IN ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF WRN HALF OF MT. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES E OF DIVIDE WITH 50KT OR GREATER SFC-6KM SHEAR SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH MINIMAL CURRENT CLOUD COVER...STRONG HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE MUCH OF STATE TODAY. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MOUNTAINS OF WRN MT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOP. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SHORT LINES DURING THE EVENING INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS MT PLAINS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... MDT/STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP ALONG WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO FOCUS REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LA INTO NERN TX. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD GULF COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING. ...COASTAL REGIONS NERN U.S... LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MID LEVEL COOLING. WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSE FROM OH VALLEY AND 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON. BEST REGION WOULD BE ERN PA ACROSS NJ WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY THREAT IS MARGINAL HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT IS LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 20:11:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 15:11:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506162022.j5GKM9XK000906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162014 SWODY1 SPC AC 162012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDS 45 E DHT 40 E LAA 30 SSE IML 55 NE HLC 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 10 S OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 35 WNW LIT 20 NNE BTR 30 NW 7R4 50 N HOU 10 WSW DAL 20 N ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 35 SE DGW 35 NNE CPR 20 NE RIW 30 WSW JAC 40 WNW MQM 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL 55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 55 WNW WMC 30 NE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 35 S 3B1 30 SW BHB ...CONT... 25 SE EWN 25 WNW ECG 10 E RIC 20 E CRW 25 SW CMH 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 15 SE APN ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 15 NE JMS 20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 25 SSE SAV. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL AND WRN OK INCLUDING THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...AND NWRN TX INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MT... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...1) OVER SERN CO/NRN NM AND 2) OVER NRN CO ATTM...WITH THESE TROUGHS EXPECTED TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LA NWWD ACROSS ERN TX TO OK AND FAR WRN KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING AND ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY FROM OK TO LA HAVE REINFORCED THE SURFACE FRONT IN THESE LOCATIONS. A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SRN NEB MAY BECOME A SECOND FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE LACK OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND CAPPING PER 18Z SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ATTM. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK TO AROUND LBL. THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF CO MID LEVEL TROUGHS ARE WEAKENING THE CAP. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS'S THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT... APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES IN ID/SWRN MT/NWRN WY. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SWWD ACROSS MT. TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN MT. THIS MAY INHIBIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM ID INTO WRN MT. FURTHER EAST...VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MT WHERE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATED STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND SHOULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/NWRN WY AND SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL MT...WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE ENABLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SHORT LINES DURING THE EVENING INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EWD. ...ERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA AHEAD OF TWO MCV'S MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS AREA. VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CELL DURATION. ...COASTAL REGIONS NERN U.S... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN PA INTO SERN NY WITH A SECOND AREA OVER SWRN PA. DESPITE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXTENDING FROM VA TO SERN NY... THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 00:52:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 19:52:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506170103.j5H13eK7012139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170101 SWODY1 SPC AC 170059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CSM 35 SE EHA 30 WSW GCK 40 NNE GCK 40 WNW HUT 40 WSW CNU 45 E BVO 20 W PGO 25 ENE DUA 30 NW SPS 30 SW CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 10 S OFK 15 SSW FNB 50 SSE OJC 35 WNW LIT 15 SE BTR 30 W 7R4 55 N HOU 35 SSW FTW 15 N ABI 35 SE MAF 40 W INK 15 NW CNM 40 WSW CVS 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 30 S DEN 35 SSW DGW 30 N CPR 20 NE RIW 15 W JAC 40 WNW MQM 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 20 S TPL 40 ESE SJT 35 SE FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 35 SE ELP 45 E 4CR 20 SW RTN 15 SW EGE 40 S EVW 15 NNE ENV 80 SSE BNO 20 SSW RDM 40 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 25 NW FSD 20 W SZL 50 N GLH 25 S MEI 10 ESE MAI 20 SE JAX ...CONT... 20 SSW NEL 25 SSE CXY 20 NW HLG 10 S TOL 20 SW MBS 15 SE APN ...CONT... 50 NNE BML 35 S 3B1 30 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS THROUGH MUCH OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS OK. THIS AFTERNOON A NW-SE ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN CO SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK...EXTREME NERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A THETA-E AXIS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM SWRN KS SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO ARE SPREADING EWD INTO WRN KS. OTHER STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPED FARTHER EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SWRN KS. THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM MODE SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN MCS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND THIS EVENING. THE SSWLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND INTO SWRN KS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF THE BOUNDARY FROM OK INTO KS. AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS...THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AND TRACK GENERALLY SEWD ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT THROUGH OK SUPPORTED BY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND 30-40 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THE WRN FLANKS OF THE MCS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RELATIVE TO THE BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST FROM NW THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN OK. ...ID AND MT... ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING NEWD THROUGH WRN U.S. UPPER LOW AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ID INTO MT. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S E OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH 60S OVER ERN MT AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOW SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE ESELY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 05:42:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 00:42:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506170553.j5H5rdue005733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170549 SWODY1 SPC AC 170547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 50 SSW PHP 45 WSW MHN 20 W IML 15 ENE AKO 40 SE CYS 25 ENE CYS 55 NE DGW 30 NNW GCC 40 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 30 NNW HLN 25 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 30 N CLL 10 NNE ACT 20 SW MWL 40 S SPS 45 E SPS 25 NNW PRX 30 SSE PGO 40 NNW HOT 30 NW LIT 35 E LIT 35 SSW GLH 30 NE MCB 10 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 55 WSW AXN 30 SSE FSD 15 NNE FNB 25 NE UNO 45 NNE MEI 35 SSW SEM 10 NW TOI 10 ESE LGC 25 W AHN 35 N CAE 25 SSW SOP 35 NNW RWI 35 ESE CHO 50 E MGW 10 WNW DUJ 35 ENE ART 25 ENE PBG ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 30 NE AUS 65 NNE BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 WNW DGW 60 NNW CPR 25 SW EVW 45 E U31 50 E LOL 70 SSE BNO 45 WSW BNO 60 NE MFR 20 S CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AND ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN STATES. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND MT TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. ..MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS... SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE STATE REACHING ERN MT BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACCELERATION OF SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND WRN SD AND SPREAD NEWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SRN PLAINS... ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL OK MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...AND STORMS MAY REINTENSIFY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SPREAD SEWD. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. FARTHER W AND NW THROUGH NWRN TX...OK AND KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PERSIST FROM THURSDAYS STORMS...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 12:44:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 07:44:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506171255.j5HCtV6W020254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171253 SWODY1 SPC AC 171251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 20 WSW GLD 20 SSW LIC 25 ENE CYS 55 NE DGW 30 NNW GCC 50 SSE LVM 30 NNW HLN 25 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 30 N CLL 10 NNE ACT 20 SW MWL 40 S SPS 45 E SPS 25 NNW PRX 25 N ELD 30 ENE JAN 30 E LUL 30 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 50 E SJT 45 W PVW 30 NW CAO 30 N 4FC 45 NNW DGW 35 E WRL 25 N RIW 35 ESE BPI 40 NNW EVW 15 ESE BYI 45 NNE OWY 95 SE BNO 30 E MHS 25 SSW CEC ...CONT... 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD 25 NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 20 SE GWO 50 E LUL 40 N CEW 25 E ABY 45 SSW AGS 45 SSE CLT 30 W GSB 50 NNE RDU 20 SSE LYH 15 NNW CRW 30 E ZZV 30 N IPT 15 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER TX COAST... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER TX COAST... MCS /SMALL BOW ECHO REMAINS INTACT MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR AT 13Z. SYSTEM MAY STRENGTHEN SOME AND TURN A BIT MORE SELY THROUGH THE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/DESTABILIZES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED BOW ECHO WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE WIDESPREAD/DAMAGING IF SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS/S. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER OK WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH /EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND SHV/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS CAP WEAKENS AND ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE REGION...SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES SHOULD ORGANIZE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND SHIFT SEVERE THREAT SSEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AROUND THIS CIRCULATION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SPREADING MID LEVEL JET EWD TODAY ACROSS MORE OF MT AND ARCING MODERATE WSWLY H5 WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/WRN MT NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT INCREASING AS AFTERNOON HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND NEAR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THREATS WILL INCLUDE POSSIBLE TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENHANCED SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW CENTER...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STRONG SLY LLJ MAY SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK INTO ERN MT AND WRN ND. FARTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE HOT. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR STORM INITIATION/SUSTENANCE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODELS MAY BE OVER-DRYING THE SURFACE...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINK WITH ANY MCS EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL/NERN MT LATER THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 16:35:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 11:35:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506171646.j5HGksmf017573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171635 SWODY1 SPC AC 171633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BPT 55 N HOU 30 NE CLL 15 E ACT 20 NNE SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 SSW ADM 35 NNW GGG 25 NNE ESF 15 ESE HEZ 40 E MCB 40 SSE MOB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 25 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC LIC 55 ENE DGW 35 NW GCC 45 NE WEY 20 N HLN 25 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD 25 NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 45 ESE GWO 45 NE MEI 15 E MGM 40 NNE ABY 45 SSE AGS 25 SSW FAY 30 SSW GSB 25 NW ECG 25 W SHD 35 NNE CRW 35 ENE PKB 25 WSW BFD 20 NW EFK ...CONT... GLS 20 NE AUS 30 NW JCT 25 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 S MRF 25 WSW FST 25 E HOB 50 SE CVS 40 NNE TCC 25 NW DEN 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50 SSW TWF 35 NE OWY 90 WNW OWY CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR E TX AND LA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SRN LA/E TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ENHANCED BY AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS OK...WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SW AR TO THE GULF COAST BY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WSWWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL LA. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED S OF THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS EXTREME E TX AND SRN LA BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F. GIVEN THE MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV...A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE TX ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AREA...ASSUMING CONVECTION BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER NW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR...BUT RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A BROAD/DEEP MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE ORE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD AS MULTIPLE SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. IN PARTICULAR...A 60-110 KT SPEED MAX IN THE 500-250 MB LAYER OVER NV/SW ID THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NNEWD TOWARD WRN MT THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE EWD FROM CENTRAL INTO ERN MT THIS EVENING. ALONG AND E OF THIS LOW/FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE SPREADING NWWD INTO ERN MT. THIS MOISTENING...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 19:41:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 14:41:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506171952.j5HJqTjQ007117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171949 SWODY1 SPC AC 171948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BPT 55 N HOU 30 NE CLL 15 E ACT 20 NNE SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 SSW ADM 35 NNW GGG 25 NNE ESF 20 ESE HEZ 45 SW LUL 40 SSE MOB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 25 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC LIC 55 ENE DGW 35 NW GCC 35 NW WEY 20 N HLN 35 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 20 NE AUS 30 NW JCT 25 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 S MRF 25 WSW FST 25 E HOB 50 SE CVS 40 NNE TCC 25 NW DEN 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50 SSW TWF 35 NE OWY 90 WNW OWY CEC ...CONT... 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD 25 NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 45 ESE GWO 45 NE MEI 15 E MGM 40 NNE ABY 45 SSE AGS 25 SSW FAY 30 SSW GSB 25 NW ECG 25 W SHD 35 NNE CRW 35 ENE PKB 25 WSW BFD 20 NW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN LA/E TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN AR...WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. A SECOND MCV...NOW LOCATED OVER NERN TX...WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT...RE-REINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM SRN LA WNWWD ACROSS ERN TX TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER NWRN TX. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE TWO MCV'S/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. 40-45 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NRN-ERN TX PER AREA VWPS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. FARTHER TO THE NW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THESE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE AIR MASS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DIURNAL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL ID ATTM WILL SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NE ACROSS MT TODAY...WHILE PRIMARY BROAD/DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PAC NW COAST. INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THIS SPEED MAX WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WRN MT. STORM INTENSITIES AND SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS ONGOING AND NEW ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW-MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH THE SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...FL... A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTIONS OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZES. THE WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 00:51:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 19:51:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506180102.j5I12iwe030414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180101 SWODY1 SPC AC 180059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 25 NW BPT 40 S LFK 55 W LFK 60 E ACT 45 W TYR 30 NW TYR 20 ENE GGG 35 SE SHV 30 E ESF 30 WNW BTR 15 SSE 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 55 S Y22 15 NNW CDR 45 W CDR 45 ENE DGW 45 S 81V 20 NNW GCC 20 NNE SHR 45 S BIL 35 SSE 3HT 40 NW LWT 60 ENE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 25 SE CLL 30 W TPL 45 WSW BWD 45 SW SJT 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 NE MRF 20 ENE HOB 50 SE CVS 35 WSW DHT 20 ENE 4FC 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50 SSW TWF 55 SW BOI 45 NNW 4LW 4BK ...CONT... 60 N DVL 35 W JMS 9V9 20 ESE BUB 25 NW CNK 30 WNW SLN 30 NE LBL 65 ENE AMA 25 SW LTS 35 SE SPS 50 SE PRX 20 W MLU 15 SSW MEI 20 ENE TOI 50 WNW SAV 15 SE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK BML 35 E MWN PWM ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 20 NW ABE 25 NNE IPT 25 NW ELM 10 NNE ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT AND LIFT NEWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING NEWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF NWRN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THIS OCCURS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT AND WY...REACHING THE WRN DAKOTAS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GRADUALLY SPREADING THROUGH ERN MT LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS THE LOW DEEPENS THIS EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER ERN MT...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. ACTIVITY MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS...ESPECIALLY WRN ND LATE TONIGHT. ...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY... A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN LA NWWD THROUGH NERN TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM NERN TX INTO NRN LA...AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS IT SPREADS SEWD. FARTHER WWD...TOWERING CUMULUS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NERN TX...AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MAY BE HELPING TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGESTS IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 05:36:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 00:36:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506180547.j5I5lehx010515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180545 SWODY1 SPC AC 180543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL 30 NNW FAR 30 SW JMS 40 NW MBG 35 WSW REJ 20 ENE 4BQ 30 E MLS 20 S ISN 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DAB 45 ESE VLD 20 ESE ABY 20 W MCN 35 WSW AHN 25 NW AND 30 ESE SPA 40 SW SOP 25 ESE FAY 25 E EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E NIR 35 SE HDO 40 WSW BWD 30 NNW MWL 35 S DUA 45 ENE SHV 30 SSW JAN 60 SW SEM 25 E MGM 30 ENE CHA 25 SW 5I3 25 SSW CRW 40 N SSU 30 N RIC 20 SSW ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 30 SW HIB 10 NE ATY 35 WNW YKN VTN 15 SSW CDR 20 S DGW 20 SSW RKS 30 ENE SLC 30 E ENV 65 W OWY 15 SW 4LW 30 WNW LMT 30 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MT THROUGH MUCH OF ND INTO NWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN GA THROUGH MUCH OF SC AND SRN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL STATES FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AND TEND TO SUPPRESS THE NWRN EXTENTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NRN ND. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN SD AND NERN WY. IN THE EAST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO GA AND SC DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PERSIST FROM SRN SC WWD THROUGH SRN GA AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. ...NRN PLAINS... STEEP LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DUE TO PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LIFT MAY EXIST ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN ND TO INITIATE STORMS AS CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND DEVELOP SWWD MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE WRN EXTENTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER NERN ND. ...CNTRL AND SRN GA...NRN FL THROUGH SC.... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL/SRN GA EWD INTO SC. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY. WEAK CAP...AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING VORT MAX SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 12:43:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 07:43:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506181254.j5ICsaKV023550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181252 SWODY1 SPC AC 181251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W INL 35 NNW RAP 10 NNE GCC 35 NNW SHR 55 WSW MLS 35 W GDV 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DAB 15 E CTY 30 WSW VLD 20 W MCN 35 WSW AHN 25 NW AND 30 ESE SPA 40 SW SOP 25 ESE FAY 25 E EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS 55 NE CLL 40 N GGG 30 SSW JAN 60 SW SEM 10 N TOI 30 ENE CHA 25 SW 5I3 25 SSW CRW 40 N SSU 30 N RIC 20 SSW ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 30 SW HIB 10 NE ATY 20 S DGW 20 SSW RKS 30 ENE SLC 30 E ENV 65 W OWY 15 SW 4LW 30 WNW LMT 30 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...NRN PLAINS... SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BECOME ORIENTED NE-SW FROM N-CENTRAL ND INTO NERN WY BY LATE TODAY. SECONDARY LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WY THIS MORNING WILL LIKEWISE DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO WRN SD BY LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG CAPPING ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ND LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. SHOULD CAPPING BREAK...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH NEWD MOVING STORMS INTO THE EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OR DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER ND AS SLY LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. FARTHER WSW...NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NERN WY/SERN MT BORDER REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE LOW. CAPPING WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SRN MT/FAR NRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SEVERITY AS THEY MOVE ENEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST... MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP / I.E. 6.5 C/KM FROM H85-H5 / ATOP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SERN GA AHEAD OF NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 65-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS... EXPECT HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES...AS WELL AS A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 16:27:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 11:27:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506181638.j5IGcFeu024528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181629 SWODY1 SPC AC 181628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW RRT 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 40 NNE REJ 65 WSW DIK 15 NNE SDY 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VRB 15 WSW AGR 15 S PIE 35 N PIE 20 WNW ORL 25 WNW DAB 15 S JAX 30 NNE AYS 55 SW AGS 15 WNW AHN 25 W AND 45 ESE AND 25 SE CAE 10 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 35 SSE ESF 40 NE MSY 30 ESE MOB 20 W DHN 10 N CSG 45 WNW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 35 N SHD 45 SW RIC 20 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10 S ABR 25 SW RAP 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 SSE MRF 35 ESE MRF 20 SSW MAF BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SWD TO CENTRAL FL.... ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM NW TX TO WRN KS/NEB...NWD TO ND. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PLAINS...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA/DNR/RAP ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM FROM THE MOIST AXIS THAT ARE 3-5 C WARMER NEAR THE BASE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL ND WHERE A BAND OF AT LEAST WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING SLOWLY EWD. HERE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 F AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...THOUGH MLCIN COULD STILL EXCEED 50-75 J/KG. ASSUMING STORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIFTING SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH SMALLER SCALE WAVES NOW ROTATING EWD OVER N FL AND COASTAL GA/SC...AND SEWD FROM ERN TN TOWARD N GA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW HAS FORMED BETWEEN MCN-AGS...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND WWD TO SRN LA. A RELATIVELY THICK BAND OF CLOUDS OVER S GA/N FL IS LIMITING SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND TO THE S OF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THESE TWO AREAS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. ...SW LA/EXTREME SE TX THIS AFTERNOON... A FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE SW INTO A NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SW LA/E TX MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE HAIL FORMATION IN THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WARM PROFILES WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 20:04:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 15:04:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506182015.j5IKFOvq020917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182007 SWODY1 SPC AC 182006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW RRT 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 40 NNE REJ 65 WSW DIK 15 NNE SDY 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE VRB 35 SSW AGR 35 E PIE 55 S GNV 25 WNW GNV 15 S JAX 30 NNE AYS 55 SW AGS 15 WNW AHN 25 W AND 45 ESE AND 25 SE CAE 10 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 35 SSE ESF 40 NE MSY 30 ESE MOB 20 W DHN 10 N CSG 45 WNW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 35 N SHD 45 SW RIC 20 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10 S ABR 25 SW RAP 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 NNE MRF 35 SE INK BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SWD TO CENTRAL FL... ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NWRN ND AND A SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ERN ID/SWRN MT. THE LATTER TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS MT THIS EVENING AND INTO SRN CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY PROVIDING ASCENT FOR POTENTIAL STORMS ACROSS SRN-ERN MT INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN-CENTRAL MANITOBA SWWD INTO FAR NWRN ND TO THE VICINITY OF THE MT/WY BORDER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS/. CLOUD STRUCTURE /BILLOWS/ ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUGGESTED THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT. GREATER VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL/NERN MANITOBA WHERE AIR PARCELS WERE REACHING THE LFC. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION INTO ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN SURFACE BASED STORMS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG/N OF COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SE INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION PER ID SHORT WAVE TROUGH GLANCING ND OVERNIGHT AND WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING PLAINS SLY LLJ. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF AREAS OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SRN SC AND ERN GA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL. A WEAK AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE GA COAST NWWD TO NRN GA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST TO MARGINAL VALUES FARTHER NWWD OVER NRN GA/WRN NC. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING SRN ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. FARTHER S ACROSS FL...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED E-W ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL /S OF JAX/...AND ACROSS CENTRAL FL ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AND WITH INTERSECTIONS OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA/ LAKE BREEZES. SIMILAR TO FARTHER N...SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ...SW LA/SE TX... EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN LA NWWD ACROSS SE-NW TX...WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED HIGH THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SE TX/SWRN LA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NLY MID LEVEL WINDS PER AREA VWPS INDICATED ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE INTO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 00:47:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 19:47:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506190058.j5J0w00j030383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190055 SWODY1 SPC AC 190053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 25 WSW REJ 25 SSW 4BQ 45 NNE SHR 60 E BIL 50 ENE BIL 70 NNE OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W AND 15 SW GSP 30 ENE CAE 45 NNW CHS 35 W CHS 25 N SAV 45 WNW SAV 45 ENE MCN 30 SSW AHN 30 W AND. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 30 SE ESF 40 W GPT 35 WNW PNS 20 W DHN 15 N CSG 45 NW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 40 N SHD 30 N RIC 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10 S ABR 30 S RAP 30 WNW BFF 45 SSW DGW 55 WSW GCC 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 NNE MRF 35 SE INK BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF GA AND SC... ...ERN MT/ND... MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE FRONT FROM E OF MOT TO W OF BIS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN WY...AND A SECONDARY...WEAKER BOUNDARY JUST W OF MOT AND P24. DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE WEAKENED CAP CONSIDERABLY /PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING WHETHER OR NOT INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. GIVEN ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 00Z BIS SOUNDING...ANY STORMS THAT DO INDEED DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOIST INFLOW ALONG DEVELOPING SLY LLJ FROM CNTRL/ERN SD INTO ERN ND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO STORM CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ND WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER W...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST INTO SERN MT ALONG COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN ID INTO S-CNTRL MT WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF IMPLIED ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WWD EXTENSION OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR BIL. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT. ...GA/SC... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM NEAR AHN TO NEAR CAE WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 03-04Z...BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COLLAPSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 05:00:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 00:00:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506190511.j5J5B3Fn024004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190509 SWODY1 SPC AC 190506 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ELO STC 25 WNW RWF 30 W HON 25 SW COD 25 E MQM BTM 35 E HLN 25 WNW P24 55 NNE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DAB 20 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 20 NNW ABY 20 N MCN 30 ESE AGS 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM 25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 E MQT EAU 30 W OTG 15 S ANW 35 NNE IML 40 WSW IML LIC 30 WNW COS 30 E EGE RWL 15 SSE LND 35 N BPI 25 W JAC 30 E SUN 35 S BOI 80 N WMC 30 ESE 4LW 10 SSE MHS 30 ENE CEC 15 SW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AQQ 15 SSE DHN 10 ESE AUO 10 NNE CSV 15 SSW JKL EKN 30 NNE CHO 30 NNE RIC 20 N ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 25 SW CNM 25 NE INK 45 ENE FST 25 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF GA/SRN SC AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH DAY ONE PERIOD WITH CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COAST...AND DOMINANT RIDGE FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE N-CNTRL STATES. SOME FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE WILL OCCUR FROM S-CNTRL CANADA SWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF ND/MN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN B.C./NWRN ALBERTA DIVES SEWD INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL ND TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN WY WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E WITH TIME AS NRN PORTION OF BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO MN...WHILE WRN EXTENSION REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS... REMNANTS OF TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SERN MT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 19/12Z OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL ND...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH INTENSIFICATION/BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINALLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND NWRN WY. MAINTENENCE OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT N OF FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN PACIFIC LOW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY MECHANISMS INITIATING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT INTO SERN MT LATER THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF NRN SD/ND OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM MORE DISCRETE ELEMENTS INTO A MCS OR CLUSTERS TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. ...PORTIONS OF GA/SRN SC AND NRN FL... POCKET OF COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ WITHIN BASE OF ERN CONUS TROUGH...WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY NUMEROUS BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH AREA MAY FOCUS MOST INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR /OWING TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET AXIS THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY EVEN MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...ORE COAST EWD TO THE CASCADES... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -20 C AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 12:29:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 07:29:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506191240.j5JCehmb029864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191237 SWODY1 SPC AC 191235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DAB 20 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 20 NNW ABY 20 N MCN 30 ESE AGS 30 E CHS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E INL 50 ESE BJI 50 WSW AXN 40 NW HON 10 SSW 81V 15 SSW COD 25 SSE LVM 25 ESE 3HT 45 SSE GDV 55 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT EAU 30 W OTG 15 S ANW 35 NNE IML 40 WSW IML LIC 30 WNW COS 30 E EGE RWL 15 SSE LND 35 N BPI 25 W JAC 30 E SUN 35 S BOI 80 N WMC 30 ESE 4LW 10 SSE MHS 20 SSW CEC ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM 25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AQQ 15 SSE DHN 10 ESE AUO 10 NNE CSV 15 SSW JKL 25 SE MGW 30 W MRB 30 NNE RIC 20 N ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 25 SW CNM 25 NE INK 45 ENE FST 25 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...NRN PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGED SWD INTO MORE OF ND IN WAKE OF SEVERE MCS MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL FRONT POSITION LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NWRN MN INTO SWRN SD/NRN WY BY LATER TODAY. THOUGH AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...STRONG CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN ON FRINGE OF MODERATE MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND...SHOULD CAP WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...ENSUING ACTIVITY WILL BE WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE NEARER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SRN MT/NRN WY AND WRN SD LATER TODAY...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THESE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ONGOING STORMS AND FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS SLY LLJ INCREASES...WHICH WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AWAY FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF ND/NRN SD OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST... REGION WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS GA SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...AS -10C TO -12C H5 TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HEATING STEEPEN LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRENGTHENED WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS /I.E. H5 WINDS FROM 20-30 KT/ ALONG BASE OF UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST THIS MORNING EAST OF LEE TROUGH FROM FAR SERN WY/WRN NEB INTO ERN CO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DESPITE DIURNAL MIXING. AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD THEREFORE INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK OVER CO...THOUGH MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS REMAIN STRONGER ACROSS WY AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. ...WRN ORE... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST TODAY...THOUGH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL EXTEND INLAND WITH -18C TO -20C H5 TEMPERATURES OVER NRN CA AND MUCH OF ORE. APPEARS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THIS REGION BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR BRIEF ORGANIZATION TO ENSUING MOIST CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 16:24:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 11:24:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506191635.j5JGZm5Q031241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191625 SWODY1 SPC AC 191623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S ORL 40 W DAB 15 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 15 ESE ABY MCN 30 WNW AGS 15 SSW CAE 15 SSE CHS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 20 SSE BJI 55 WNW AXN 50 SE MBG 15 SSE GCC 35 S SHR 25 SSE BIL 55 ENE BIL 35 SSE GDV 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG 25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF ...CONT... 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT 20 ENE FSD 25 NE IML 30 E LIC 30 SW LIC 25 WNW COS 40 N 4FC 15 SSE CPR 25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50 WNW SUN 70 S S80 40 ENE S80 40 NNE 3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL ...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65 E 63S 25 SSW 4OM 40 ESE DLS 10 NNW BNO 80 SE BNO 75 N WMC 75 SE 4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI 35 W UKI ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM 40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 25 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 20 SSE SAT 15 W AUS 20 SSE TPL 40 E TPL 35 WNW HOU 10 WNW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SC/GA AND NE FL.... ...NRN PLAINS AREA... THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT STORMS IN ND HAVE MOVED NEWD INTO ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO NW MN...WHILE THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NE ND SWWD TO SW SD/NE WY. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH CRESTING THE RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EML/CAP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING AT BIS/RAP...AND SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT ABR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ESTIMATED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 90S IN THE WARM SECTOR...THUS ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NARROW BAND OF ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT NEAR AND SE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG/...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE REGION OF FOCUSED WAA AND ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR AND NE OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...AND SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS. ....SE STATES TODAY... THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION /NEAR AGS/ SHOULD DRIFT SEWD/EWD THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION NEAR/SE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S...MID-UPPER FLOW AND SHEAR ARE STRONGER OVER N FL...BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK. STILL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PERSISTENT STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL ELY COMPONENT IS ENHANCED. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...ORE AREA... THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NW CA/SW ORE COASTS. WITHIN THE BROADER LOW...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NWD FROM NW CA TO WRN/CENTRAL ORE LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR -20 C...COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADES. ..THOMPSON.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 19:50:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 14:50:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506192001.j5JK1QRi016184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191957 SWODY1 SPC AC 191956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 20 SSE BJI 55 WNW AXN 50 SE MBG 15 SSE GCC 35 S SHR 25 SSE BIL 55 ENE BIL 35 SSE GDV 60 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S ORL 40 W DAB 15 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 15 ESE ABY MCN 30 WNW AGS 15 SSW CAE 15 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT 20 ENE FSD 25 NE IML 30 E LIC 20 NW LHX 10 N PUB 30 S 4FC 15 SSE CPR 25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50 WNW SUN 70 S S80 40 ENE S80 40 NNE 3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL ...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65 E 63S 25 SSW 4OM 40 ESE DLS 35 WNW BKE 30 ENE BNO 70 NW OWY 50 W OWY 75 SE 4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI 35 W UKI ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM 40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 25 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG 25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 20 SSE SAT 15 W AUS 20 SSE TPL 40 E TPL 35 WNW HOU 10 WNW GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SC/GA AND NE FL... ...NRN PLAINS AREA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN MANITOBA INTO NERN ND TO A LOW LOCATED BETWEEN BIS/MBG...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN TRAILING SWWD TO THE SWRN SD/NEB BORDER AREA AND INTO CENTRAL WY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000-3500 J/KG AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED...HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN PLAINS APPEAR TO PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IN ADDITION...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS AIDING IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP... THEY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN MT... WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ANY STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSES ITO THIS REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OVERNIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD. ...SE STATES... SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FL GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS...AND MOVING INLAND ALONG THE GA/SC COASTAL REGION WILL REMAIN FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SRN GA WILL ALSO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER GA AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SRN GA/NRN FL TO THE SC COASTAL AREA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS UNTIL AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SC/NC...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY SHEARED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/ STABILIZES. ....ORE... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...NOW OVER NRN CA...WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS ORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE CASCADES WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER. ...TX COAST... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST...GIVEN PLUME OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER THIS REGION THAT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE...WITH LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 00:49:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 19:49:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506200100.j5K10IGZ031008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200058 SWODY1 SPC AC 200056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 30 NNE BRD 50 WSW AXN 25 NNE 9V9 30 N MHN 10 WNW AIA 45 SSE DGW 10 W DGW 35 E WRL 50 NNW COD 35 ESE 3HT 30 ESE GDV 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT 35 NNE SUX 15 WSW HLC 20 SSE LAA 15 SSW LHX 15 WSW PUB 50 WNW COS 15 SSE CPR 25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50 WNW SUN 70 S S80 45 NNE S80 55 N 3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL ...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65 E 63S 40 SW GEG PDT 35 WNW BKE 30 ENE BNO 70 NW OWY 50 W OWY 75 SE 4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI 35 W UKI ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM 40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 25 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG 25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MT AND ERN WY... ...RED RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO MT/WY... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2500-4500 J/KG/ EXISTS THIS EVENING FROM N-CNTRL MN SWWD INTO SD AND THE NEB PNHDL ALONG AND E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR RRT TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIR SWWD ACROSS THE NWRN NEB PNHDL AND THEN MORE NWWD INTO NRN WY. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS OVER NWRN MN TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN ND INTO ERN SD ALONG INTENSIFYING LLJ AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD 1394. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SERN MT/NERN WY...POSSIBLY INTO WRN SD. DESPITE RATHER STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z RAP SOUNDING...WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER ELEVATION HAVE LIKELY ERODED THIS FEATURE OVER NERN WY WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT BENEATH 30-35 KTS OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN ND AND WRN SD. FINALLY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE LOCALLY WEAKENED CAP ALONG FRONT OVER THE NRN NEB PNHDL WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. ...SERN STATES... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS EWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS WITH REGION OF COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTING WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ORE... FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD ACROSS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /PER 00Z SLE SOUNDING/ HAS SUSTAINED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER THE CASCADES OF NRN/CNTRL ORE. OBSERVED STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 05:03:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 00:03:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506200514.j5K5EXhg000308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200511 SWODY1 SPC AC 200509 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT MOT 10 NE JMS 35 ESE BRD 45 WNW EAU 25 S RST 30 N FOD 50 SSW PHP 30 SE BIL 45 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 30 NNE GLH 15 SSW MEM 45 N MSL 55 SE BNA 40 WSW LOZ 50 N JKL 30 NE HTS 40 WNW EKN 20 NE EKN 15 ENE ROA 15 SSW DAN FAY 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE GBN 40 NNW GBN 10 ENE IGM 30 NNW SGU 40 ENE MLF CAG 10 S LAR DGW 25 SW GCC COD 30 WNW JAC 35 ENE SUN 20 N BOI 45 ENE 4LW 15 SSE LMT 35 S MFR 15 NW 4BK ...CONT... 55 SE OSC 15 SSE LAN CGX BRL STJ RSL LBL 20 WSW MAF 45 SW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/SRN MN NWWD INTO ERN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY DOMINANT RIDGE FROM NRN MEXICO/SRN PLAINS INTO THE N-CNTRL STATES...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND E COAST. RIDGE AXIS WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT AS AMPLIFYING CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SAG SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES WHILE WRN EXTENSION RETREATS NWD INTO CNTRL MT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS. ...CNTRL/SRN MN WWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO ERN MT... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 20/12Z ALONG/N FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MN WWD INTO THE DAKOTAS WITHIN RATHER WEAK...BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THOUGH SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...AVAILABILITY OF POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG/ S OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION/RENEWED DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN WWD INTO SD. STRONGEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE N ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM. HOWEVER BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INVOF OF FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT OWING TO INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. HERE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 45-60 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL ND AND POSSIBLY NWRN SD. ...ERN TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO FL... COMBINATION OF RATHER COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS SWD INTO FL. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND MAIN CIRCULATION...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE WEAK CAP WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TSTM BY AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM ERN KY INTO WRN AL AND ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA MAY SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PACIFIC NW... RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES E OF ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY LATER TODAY FROM NWRN ORE NWD TO PUGET SOUND WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG. APPEARS THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS AREA AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY OWING TO SLIGHT WWD RETROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 12:41:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 07:41:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506201252.j5KCqEdf019378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201250 SWODY1 SPC AC 201248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 25 ENE SDY 30 NNW JMS 25 SSE ELO 15 NNW IMT 20 ESE AUW 15 SSE MCW 55 SE 81V HLN 50 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 15 SSE LAN CGX 35 W MLI 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE CVS 20 WSW MAF 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 40 NNW GBN 10 ENE IGM 30 NNW SGU 40 ENE MLF CAG 35 WSW LAR DGW 25 SW GCC COD 30 WNW JAC 35 ENE SUN 20 N BOI 45 ENE 4LW 15 SSE LMT 35 S MFR 15 NW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 30 NNE GLH 15 SSW MEM 40 SE MKL 10 NE BNA 60 W LOZ 50 N JKL 30 NE HTS 40 WNW EKN 20 NE EKN 15 ENE ROA 25 SE DAN 15 WSW GSB 20 ENE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN GREAT LAKES... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TODAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY PRIMARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MN SWWD ACROSS NRN SD AND WNWWD INTO CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER MCS/S WILL COMPLICATE THE SURFACE PATTERN TODAY. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AREA OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF SD...SERN ND AND SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 55-65F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTENDING NWWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN/CENTRAL MT. BOW ECHO MOVING INTO SERN ND AT 13Z WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT INTO AT LEAST W-CENTRAL MN. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT PRECEEDING THE BOW ECHO. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO FAR NRN WI...ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NRN WI THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT FROM WRN MN WWD. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING CAP UNDER STRONG HEATING AND MAY SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES BY 21Z INTO SD/SRN ND AND INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF NWD RETURN OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO FAR SWRN SD EARLY THIS MORNING. MLCAPES WITHIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS SD MAY EXCEED 4000 J/KG ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS INTO MT...SHEAR WILL BE MARKEDLY STRONGER UNDER 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE THE WARM MID LEVELS...ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...OR EXPECT INCREASING SSWLY LLJ TO DEVELOP ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AFTER DARK. THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY...EVOLUTION INTO A BOW ECHO MAY OCCUR FOR THE THIRD NIGHT IN A ROW AND SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD AND POSSIBLY SWRN MN LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL EXTEND N-S FROM N-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS WITHIN WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST... PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS REGION SETTLES UNDER MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...PAC NW... REGION REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AREA OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN POSE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 16:34:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 11:34:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506201644.j5KGil6h011436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201631 SWODY1 SPC AC 201630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DLS 45 W RDM 30 SSE EUG 10 SSE ONP 45 S AST 15 SSW HQM 35 NNW OLM 15 SSW SEA 20 W DLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE GGW 20 S ISN 55 SW DVL 25 SW BJI 40 NE IWD 25 WNW IMT 30 S CWA 30 ESE MCW 50 SSW MHE 35 ESE CDR 40 W CDR 20 SSW GCC 25 S SHR 45 NE COD 40 SSE 3HT HLN 55 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE FAY 50 E ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN 30 W IGM 40 N LAS 55 ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE CPR 50 E WRL 25 NW WRL 45 ENE WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30 SSE MFR 15 SSE CEC ...CONT... 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN 30 W BEH 20 WNW BRL 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE CVS 20 WSW MAF 90 SW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM YKM 40 SSE YKM 30 W PDT 10 SW ALW 30 WNW PUW 20 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM MN TO MT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NW ORE/SW WA.... ...NRN PLAINS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MN. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED BY LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ITS COLD POOL...WHERE ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A SEPARATE E-W BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS IN CENTRAL MN. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS ENEWD FROM SD INTO CENTRAL MN...WHICH MAY HELP MAINTAIN THE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION...BUT DEEP LAYER WINDS/SHEAR BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER TO THE E OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND THIS MAY TEND TO COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING STORMS...A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SD AND NE WY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO ELY/ESELY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE OUTFLOW AIR MASS. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S INTO S CENTRAL MT AND 60S INTO SE MT AND ADJACENT SD/ND...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE BLACK HILLS WNWWD INTO SRN MT...AND THEN MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR PERSISTENT BOW ECHOES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...NW ORE/SW WA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NWD OVER SW ORE...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW NEAR 41 N AND 130 W. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND W OF THE CASCADES. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ...SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON... THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS NEAR THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL...AND IN THE REGION OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR W OF THE TROUGH AXIS ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 20:07:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 15:07:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506202018.j5KKIFVR027646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202010 SWODY1 SPC AC 202009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DLS 45 W RDM 30 SSE EUG 10 SSE ONP 45 S AST 15 SSW HQM 35 NNW OLM 15 SSW SEA 20 W DLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 45 N BIS 55 NW ABR 35 E ABR 15 N RWF 20 ESE MSP 35 WNW RHI 30 S IMT 10 WNW GRB 10 NNW ALO 30 SSW SUX 20 S MHN 20 W AIA 40 SSW 81V 15 W SHR 25 SW LVM 15 NE BTM 60 NE MSO 55 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN 30 W BEH 20 WNW BRL 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE CVS 20 WSW MAF 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN 30 W IGM 40 N LAS 55 ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE CPR 50 E WRL 15 SSE COD 30 SSW WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30 SSE MFR 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE FAY 50 E ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM YKM 40 SSE YKM 30 W PDT 10 SW ALW 30 WNW PUW 20 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WI...WWD INTO MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN ORE/SWRN WA... ...MS VALLEY... EARLY MORNING MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO WCNTRL WI. STRONGEST SURGE IS EWD INTO WI...WITH ONLY A SLOW SWD PROPAGATION INTO SRN MN/SERN SD. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FEEDING INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE FSD REGION...APPARENTLY ENHANCED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON UPSHEAR SIDE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EVENTUALLY SAG SWD INTO NRN IA WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. DOWNSTREAM...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN WI MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO THAT AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ARCING SQUALL LINE. WITH TIME THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST THINKING IS THIS MAY OCCUR FIRST OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF MT...NEAR THE LITTLE BELTS/BIG SNOWY MOUNTAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THIS REGION WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. AIRMASS IS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME...AN MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED CLOUD COVER HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ON THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A SLOW-GROWING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE INHIBITION OBSERVED AT 19Z ON RAP SOUNDING...THIS MAY STRUGGLE FOR A FEW HOURS. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEB...AND ACROSS NERN WY/WRN SD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ...NWRN U.S... UPPER LOW HAS PROGRESSED LITTLE OFF THE NRN CA/ORE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/REGION OF ASCENT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED. IT APPEARS WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ORE...THEN SPREAD NWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SWRN WA. LARGE HAIL COULD EASILY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 00:36:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 19:36:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506210046.j5L0kl1R006805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210044 SWODY1 SPC AC 210042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 45 N BIS 20 WNW ATY 25 W RWF 30 E MKT 10 N LSE 25 SSW VOK 35 NE DBQ 25 NNE MLI BRL 25 W MCK 20 NW LHX 30 W PUB 50 NNE DGW 10 WSW SHR 25 SW LVM 15 NE BTM 60 NE MSO 55 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN 30 W BEH 30 SSW PIA 30 S IRK 10 W STJ 50 SE GLD 40 NW LBL 15 N PVW MAF 40 SSW P07 ...CONT... 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN 30 W IGM 40 N LAS 55 ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE CPR 50 E WRL 15 SSE COD 30 SSW WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30 SSE MFR 15 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM 35 NNE EPH 30 ESE EPH 30 E ALW 25 S LWS 35 E PUW 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE FAY 50 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO IA... ...SRN MN/IA WWD INTO NEB AND CO... MATURE MCS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN IA AT AROUND 30 KTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN IA. MCS SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS CAP INTENSIFIES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. WWD DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG MCS GUST FRONT INTO SERN SD/NERN NEB WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS MCS...PLEASE SEE MCD 1406. OTHER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER THE NEB PNHDL SWD INTO ERN CO WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-5000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS AREA...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... 00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL MT SEWD THROUGH NERN WY AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN SD. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN MT TO AS HIGH AS 4000-4500 J/KG ALONG/S OF BOUNDARY OVER S-CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB. DESPITE GRADUALLY BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER NRN ROCKIES /PER WATER VAPOR LOOP/...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS. CURRENT VWPS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT INDICATE STRONG VEERING THROUGH LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL WITH 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO ND...AND POSSIBLY NWRN SD. ...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SWD TO THE NERN GULF COAST... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER ERN KY AND NRN AL WITHIN MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME WRAPPING WWD AND THEN SWD AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. 00Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING IN NLY WINDS ABOVE 6 KM AGL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THROUGH 03-04Z...PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...WA/ORE... CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM W OF RDM TO S OF PDT WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO E OF RETROGRADING ERN PACIFIC LOW SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS LIKELY NEGLIGIBLE OR SUBSIDENT ACROSS REGION. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVER THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1407. ..MEAD.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 04:59:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 23:59:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506210510.j5L5AgVu024302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210508 SWODY1 SPC AC 210506 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW JHW 10 SW MFD 10 ESE IND 45 SSE UIN 15 NNW STJ 35 WNW EAR 25 WSW GCC 25 NNW SHR 50 SSE LVM 15 WNW BYI 40 NNE OWY 60 SE BNO 45 ESE DLS 45 NE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 20 S DVL 40 W FAR 20 W EAU 30 WNW OSH 40 ESE MBL 35 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 S DAG 30 SW TPH 35 E NFL 20 W LOL SVE 15 ESE RBL 60 SE EKA 25 S CEC ...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10 W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 45 W EMP 45 W HUT 10 NE DDC 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW GDP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES NWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW... ...SYNOPSIS... ERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND LIFT NEWD INTO WRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPSTREAM HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF AK. MEANWHILE....BROAD AND DOMINANT RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION...WHILE DOWNSTREAM FULL LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY EVOLVES OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND CANADA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS ERN CANADA WILL SAG SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN STRETCH NWWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES TO INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... MCV /WELL INITIALIZED BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS/ OVER WI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ WITHIN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI AND NRN/IL AND IND SWD TO THE OH RIVER. DEVELOPMENT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM SWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO LOWER MI WILL RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER TO THE NE FROM NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...APPEARS STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INVOF ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...HOWEVER ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FORECAST REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT AND THEIR IMPACT ON AIR MASS STABILITY AND ANY SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVER SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA MAY ORGANIZE A COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE S/SEWD ALONG MO VALLEY PRIOR TO 21/12Z. FARTHER NW...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT MAY MERGE INTO A MCS...POSSIBLY BEING LOCATED OVER FAR NERN MT/WRN ND AT THE START OF THE DAY ONE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM CNTRL NEB NWWD SERN MT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE NERN MT/WRN ND MCS TO CONTINUE TODAY SEWD ALONG THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO CNTRL/ERN SD AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NEB...IA AND MN. THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES /POSSIBLY A LARGER-SCALE BOW ECHO/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMNANT FROM NOCTURNAL MID MO VALLEY MCS. ...PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES... SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH OPENING TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO WRN CANADA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE AIR MASS IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAKS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA EWD INTO ID AND WRN MT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ACROSS DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KTS/...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...HOWEVER RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE OUTFLOW/COLD POOL PRODUCTION. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 12:37:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 07:37:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506211248.j5LCmBfc017893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211246 SWODY1 SPC AC 211244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 35 SSW DVL 15 WSW EAU 25 E LSE 50 NW DBQ 40 W FOD 40 NW CDR 45 SE BIL 40 SSE LVM 40 N BYI 45 NNE OWY 40 SE BNO 40 ESE DLS 40 NE BLI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ERI 15 NNE CAK 30 W DAY 25 NNW IND 50 N LAF 20 NW AZO 45 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 S DAG 30 SW TPH 35 E NFL 20 W LOL SVE 15 ESE RBL 60 SE EKA 25 S CEC ...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10 W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 30 ENE ICT 30 SSW HUT 40 W P28 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW GDP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA TODAY AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFT NWD AWAY FROM UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING SLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ROBUST TODAY...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF INCREASED SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS WRN MT AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF CENTRAL/NERN MT OVERNIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY... FORECAST WILL BE COMPLICATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DIMINISHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO NRN SD AT 13Z. NOT ONLY HAS CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVITY LEFT AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE BUBBLE OF CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED AIR...BUT THIS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY TODAY. CONVECTIVE BUBBLE MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO ERODE AND LIMIT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WNWWD INTO SD/CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS APPEARS UNAFFECTED BY THE EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER...EVEN HERE CAPPING SHOULD HINDER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN LARGE SLGT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY DUE TO NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR...AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE NEAR SURFACE FRONT FROM NERN MT/NWRN SD SEWD TOWARDS SRN MN/FAR NRN IA. ...SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A STEADY SEWD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SSEWD INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ALONG NOSE OF 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SUGGESTING SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES COULD OCCUR WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 16:31:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 11:31:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506211641.j5LGfp0j012587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211631 SWODY1 SPC AC 211630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW MOT 40 NNE BIS 35 ENE BKX 40 SE FSD 10 ESE YKN 25 NE AIA 55 W CDR 10 W GCC 20 NNW SHR 45 SSE LVM 20 SSE DLN 60 SSW MSO 30 ENE S80 45 SW S80 55 SSE BKE 20 NW BNO 65 ENE RDM 50 ENE DLS 45 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 10 SW DAG 35 WSW TPH 75 NW WMC 65 E 4LW 10 SSE 4LW 45 NW SVE RBL 55 W RBL 25 S CEC ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 NE DLH 35 ENE AUW 20 NNE MBL 40 N APN ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W ORF 40 N EWN 20 S ILM ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 35 S EMP 10 ESE ICT 40 ENE GAG 45 NW CDS 25 E INK 50 SW INK 70 SW GDP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MT AND THE DAKOTAS.... ...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS/MT AREA... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS NEB GENERATED A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT IS DRIFTING SWD OVER SE NEB...WHILE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF NEB AND ERN SD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A SEPARATE MCS IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN SD...ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE REMAINING UNCONTAMINATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PLUME ACROSS WRN SD. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE 12Z RAP SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SD. FARTHER NW IN MT...THE 12Z GGW/TFX SOUNDINGS REVEALED MUCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MT...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL MT AND SPREAD NNEWD TOWARD N CENTRAL MT/SE ALBERTA/SW SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE EVENING/TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA THAT WILL CREST NRN ROCKIES RIDGE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/ WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM AZ NWD TO ID. MODIFYING FOR DAYTIME HEATING...INVERTED-V PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH FROM AZ NWD THROUGH UT/ERN NV TO ID. ...SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON... THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER WRN NC/VA HAS ELONGATED NNE-SSW AND IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT EWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES /NEAR -12 C/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE AREA FROM NRN AL/GA TO THE WRN CAROLINAS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ...LOWER MI TODAY TO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT... REMNANTS OF A WEAK MCV /FROM CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER MN/WI/ IS MOVING SEWD OVER LOWER MI...WHILE A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ESEWD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE TODAY...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A NARROW PLUME OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM WI/NRN LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...THOUGH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL REMAIN IN SE CANADA TODAY. A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MI...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION MOVING SEWD INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INVOF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA AS WELL. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 19:49:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 14:49:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506212000.j5LK0Hww008102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211957 SWODY1 SPC AC 211955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 40 W DVL 60 NE BIS 45 S JMS 40 NE BKX 40 SE FSD 10 ESE YKN 25 NE AIA 55 ENE DGW 10 WSW GCC 10 W SHR 45 NW COD 30 E DLN 55 SW 3DU 45 ENE GEG 35 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 35 S EMP 10 ESE ICT 40 ENE GAG 45 NW CDS 25 E INK 50 SW INK 70 SW GDP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 10 SW DAG 35 WSW TPH 75 NW WMC 65 E 4LW 10 SSE 4LW 45 NW SVE RBL 55 W RBL 25 S CEC ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 NE DLH 35 ENE AUW 20 NNE MBL 40 N APN ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W ORF 40 N EWN 20 S ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS... LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND 18Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SUGGESTS INHIBITION IS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL/NRN MT. CONTINUED SUNSHINE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SOON LEAVE AREA UNCAPPED...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE NWD MOVING THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO SWRN MT. THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL ENHANCEMENT APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS LIFTED NWD FROM THE DESERT SW REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA/ORE COAST. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS NOW THICKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND HIGH SFC DEW POINTS/RH VALUES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS UPDRAFTS ORGANIZE AND SPREAD TOWARD SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. IN ADDITION...WARM ADVECTION ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT HAS ALLOWED STRONG TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER IN SRN CANADA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST...NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN ND COULD OCCUR ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS ERN ORE...WITH LATEST DATA INDICATING VALUES AOB HALF AN INCH. SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER CU NOTED. SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION NORTH AND EAST FROM EXTREME NERN WA INTO NRN ID WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDES. ...LOWER MI TO NRN NEW ENGLAND... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEP CONVERGENCE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER...ROUGHLY 170MI...EXTENDING FROM ERN QUEBEC INTO ONTARIO EAST OF SSM. IT APPEARS THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT APPROACH NRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...BEYOND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THUS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES SOMEWHAT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LOWER MI...DROPPING SWD TOWARD NWRN OH. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING ORGANIZED SEVERE LEVELS. ...SERN U.S... UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS SC/GA. SCT-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH COLDER MID LEVEL TROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE. MARGINALLY SEVER HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DARROW.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 00:31:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 19:31:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506220041.j5M0ftxn022102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220039 SWODY1 SPC AC 220037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT 35 ESE MOT 30 N BIS 30 NW MBG 40 SW MBG 30 N PHP 25 SW PHP 35 NNW CDR 60 NE DGW 10 WSW GCC 10 W SHR 45 NW COD 30 E DLN 55 SW 3DU 45 ENE GEG 35 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 15 E EAU 10 E LNR 20 S LAN 120 ENE APN ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W ORF 40 N EWN 20 S ILM ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 20 NNW ARG 35 S TBN 35 WNW SGF 35 NE BVO 25 NNW PNC 35 SSW EHA 35 N TCC 65 W CVS 45 ENE ALM ELP ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 25 SSW LAS 60 NE TPH 30 ENE WMC 95 E 4LW 4LW 35 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 10 E CEC 45 NNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... ...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WA SEWD INTO SRN ID/SWRN MT...WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAX FROM NWRN NV INTO SWRN MT. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WRN/CNTRL MT SWD INTO WRN WY INTO NERN UT...AS WELL AS IN REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NE OF OPENING UPPER LOW OVER WRN/CNTRL WA. STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT DEEPER MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SOME LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS OVER WRN/CNTRL MT...THOUGH AIR MASS STILL REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FARTHER E...00Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 4000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WITH APPROACH OF WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN MT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE W OVER PORTIONS OF WA...AND SEWD INTO SRN ID AND WRN WY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 04:40:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 23:40:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506220450.j5M4ohAx026254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220447 SWODY1 SPC AC 220446 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 N CMX 30 W IWD 45 ESE BRD 15 SE FAR 35 SSE DVL 35 SE MOT 35 ESE SDY 40 W GDV 65 W MLS 25 SSE LVM 20 SW BZN 20 S HLN 40 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU 35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP 30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NNW CAO 35 SW LVS 60 WNW TCS 30 NNE TUS 15 SSW FHU ...CONT... 20 SSW IPL 35 SW EED 35 N DRA 40 NE U31 60 NNE BOI 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE 30 WSW PIA 35 WNW EVV 20 SW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 WSW BFD 20 N RUT 30 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MN WWD INTO MT... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE CANADIAN W COAST EWD INTO THE PRAIRIES OF AB/SK AS TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST PHASES WITH INTENSIFYING SYSTEM DIVING SEWD ACROSS BC. AS A RESULT...FLATTENING OF CNTRL CONUS RIDGE WILL OCCUR WITH REBOUNDING HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN CANADA SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS ENEWD FROM CNTRL AB INTO NWRN MB BY 23/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE E...WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...WRN GREAT LAKES WWD TO MT... REMOTE SENSOR DATA SHOW MCS EVOLVING TONIGHT OVER SRN AB INTO SWRN SK...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN COMPLEX ACROSS SRN SK PRIOR TO 22/12Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS MCS TO DEVELOP MORE SEWD TODAY INTO AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/ IN PLACE ACROSS NRN MN. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AHEAD OF EVOLVING WRN CANADA TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO INHIBIT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS...CATEGORICAL RISK ACROSS THIS AREA IS CONDITIONAL ON STORMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER W...INCREASING SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DRYING BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG FRONT OVER MT. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND 40-5O KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS /HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...ID/WY SWD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS... PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES/ COUPLED WITH DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE STRONGER STORMS OVER FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT STRONGER INSTABILITY. ...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF FRONT/TROUGH FROM E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH AREA. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 12:28:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 07:28:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506221239.j5MCd0v8022805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221236 SWODY1 SPC AC 221234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N CMX 40 WNW IWD 50 ESE BRD 20 SSE FAR 10 SE DVL 40 ESE MOT 30 N BIS 45 NNW MBG 35 NW PHP 40 W RAP 20 SSW 4BQ 20 ESE LVM 40 WNW 3HT 85 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU 35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP 30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NNW CAO 35 SW LVS 60 WNW TCS 30 NNE TUS 15 SSW FHU ...CONT... 20 SSW IPL 30 ESE DAG 60 WNW DRA 25 S BAM 60 NNE BOI 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE 30 WSW PIA 35 WNW EVV 20 SW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 ENE JHW 15 N ALB 30 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY AS TROUGH FINALLY PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET SPREADING EWD OVER MUCH OF MT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM NE-SW FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN MT INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL MT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE ESEWD OVERNIGHT. THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SSWLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO MAINTAIN 50-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO NERN MT TODAY DESPITE STRONG DIURNAL MIXING/HEATING. WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INTO CENTRAL AND NERN MT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES AS STORMS SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER SOUTH...LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY FROM ERN MT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING JUST TO ITS EAST. CONVERGENCE AND MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH ...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ATOP A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKLY ORGANIZED/BRIEF OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE NWD INTO 20-30 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN SD/SERN MT/SWRN ND...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS REGION IN SLGT RISK TODAY. ...ND INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... SEVERE THREAT AT BIT MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION THAN POINTS FARTHER WEST. OVERNIGHT RUNS OF NAM AND GFS STILL CONSISTENT IN SUSTAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...WITH PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SSEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE / I.E. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG / AND SHEARED /40-50 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR / TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP SSEWD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN... POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...PRESENCE OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER A VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 16:36:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 11:36:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506221647.j5MGlQMw014891@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221632 SWODY1 SPC AC 221630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N CMX 45 NE DLH 50 ESE BJI 25 SSW TVF 50 NNW GFK 35 NNW DVL 45 W DVL 30 N BIS 45 S BIS 30 NW PHP 20 E RAP 35 ESE 81V 20 SSW 4BQ 45 ESE LVM 40 W 3HT 85 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE 30 NW SPI 50 SSW HUF 25 SSW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 ENE JHW 15 N ALB 25 NE PWM ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU 35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP 30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NW CAO 35 N SVC 40 SSW SAD 15 S DUG ...CONT... 25 ENE CZZ 10 N DAG 40 SW TPH 50 NNW U31 60 NNE BOI 75 S S80 35 W S06 30 WNW GEG 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN MT TO NRN MN.... ...NRN PLAINS AREA... THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE DAKOTAS. SEVERAL SPEED MAXIMA ARE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE...THE MOST OBVIOUS OF WHICH IS MOVING ENEWD OVER ERN MT/SE SASKATCHEWAN. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SPEED MAX...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS MOVING ESEWD OVER SRN MANITOBA. THE INSTABILITY FEED FOR THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE JUST OFF THE SURFACE FROM THE SSW...WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW REGIME AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MN DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTION INTO MN. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ACROSS NRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MANITOBA STORMS...BUT THE MANITOBA STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY FAR INTO MN BEFORE WEAKENING. FARTHER W...A MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME IS OVERSPREADING WRN/CENTRAL ND AND NW SD IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF ERN MT. ASIDE FROM SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THIS PLUME...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM EML /700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 12-14 C/ WILL TEND TO CAP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN. THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD WARM AND DRY FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IMPINGES ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE. IF STORMS FORM...VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LATER TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS ERN MT INVOF A SE MOVING COLD FRONT. THOUGH CAPE WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE...VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS. ...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON... LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING...THOUGH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS ERN IA/SW IL MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IF STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON... INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF W/SW PROPAGATING STORMS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA THIS AFTERNOON... SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY THIS AREA SHOULD BE FOCUSED BY A SE MOVING COLD FRONT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 20:01:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 15:01:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506222011.j5MKBnv3017841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222009 SWODY1 SPC AC 222007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N CMX 45 NE DLH 50 ESE BJI 25 SSW TVF 50 NNW GFK 35 NNW DVL 45 W DVL 30 N BIS 45 S BIS 30 NW PHP 20 E RAP 35 ESE 81V 20 SSW 4BQ 45 ESE LVM 40 W 3HT 85 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 25 WSW CAE 55 NNW AHN 30 SW CSV 40 SSE PAH 15 NE TBN 20 E FNB 15 SW SUX 25 NNE YKN 40 SSW MHE 10 ESE BBW 40 NNE GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NW CAO 40 NW 4CR 30 WSW SVC 60 E DUG ...CONT... 30 SW IPL 10 N DAG 40 SW TPH 50 NNW U31 60 NNE BOI 75 S S80 35 W S06 30 WNW GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 15 ESE MQT 10 ENE RHI 35 E EAU 35 S LSE 20 WNW MLI 50 SSW HUF 25 SSW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB DUJ ALB 25 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 WSW HOU 25 NNE HOU 25 SW POE 20 W MCB 45 SE LUL 10 NW DHN 10 NE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO NRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST REGENERATING TSTMS ON UPSHEAR SIDE OF DECAYING ERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO MCS. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE BORDER INTO ND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT IS TOPPING RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO TURN EWD TOWARD MN. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS EXPANDING CLUSTER OVER ND...STRONG INHIBITION...ROUGHLY 100-200J/KG...WILL LIKELY PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPMENT FORCING PARCELS TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH TIME MANITOBA CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE MOVING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY LATE. STRONG HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM UT/CO...NWD INTO SWRN MT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WEAK SWRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES ENHANCING THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PROSPECT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD WITHIN OTHERWISE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. FARTHER NORTH...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS WRN ND/ERN MT HAS SUPPRESSED BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SUBSIDENCE IS WEAKENING UPSTREAM OVER SWRN MT WHERE CU FIELD IS THICKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVER MT THIS EVENING AS SPEED MAX MOVES INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND HIGH BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD WRN ND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...NERN U.S./MIDDLE ATLANTIC... UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...IT APPEARS A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING UPDRAFTS. ...IA/MO/IL... VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM SRN IL...NWWD INTO CNTRL IA. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THIS ZONE MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. IF SO...BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE BUOYANT AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. IF CONVECTION DOES EVOLVE...IT WOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SSWWD BEFORE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEAT. ..DARROW.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 01:05:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 20:05:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506230115.j5N1Fd9c004291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230113 SWODY1 SPC AC 230111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 35 ESE RAP 40 WSW RAP 20 SSW 4BQ 45 NE COD JAC 20 E IDA BTM 40 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ANJ 40 NE PLN PLN AUW LSE MLI MTO MVN VIH FSD HON PIR MHN 35 W GLD 30 ESE 4CR TCS SAD 15 SSW DUG ...CONT... 15 SSW YUM DAG NFL LOL WMC 27U 55 E S80 S80 ALW EPH 60 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE FLO CLT TRI BLF CHO BWI ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES REGIONS... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR MOST OF CONUS WILL REMAIN INTENSE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH...WITH RIDGING NWD ACROSS MB. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS...WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS STABILIZATION COMMENCES THROUGH MUCH OF TROPOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- WILL MOVE WED ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NRN ID...INTO WRN MT BY END OF PERIOD. LOWER AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EMBEDDED IN MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO TURN SEWD ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES... AS NWRN TROUGH APCHS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER THIS TENDENCY WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY DIABATIC SFC STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET. CLUSTER OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN ID INTO SWRN MT AND EXTREME NWRN WY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND MAR5GINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYERS...WITH SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS COMMONLY IN 40-50 DEG F RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING. RELATED ACCELERATION IN PARCEL DESCENT CONTRIBUTING TO SFC GUST THREAT...PARTICULARLY ON SWWD SLOPES FACING MEAN WIND. OTHERWISE REF WW 512 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF MT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT ALSO INCREASING SBCIN. EXPECT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AFTER 03Z. ...NRN MN TO UPPER MI... STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REPRESENTED BY 00Z INL SOUNDING SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS MORE OF WRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION INVOF SWLY LLJ. THIS WILL RENDER AIR MASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION...AND FOR ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD FROM NWRN ONT -- VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER NRN MN AND NRN WI...WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 05:21:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 00:21:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506230531.j5N5Vq0b010748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230529 SWODY1 SPC AC 230528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 50 SSE ELO DLH MSP FRM SPW YKN 9V9 ABR GFK 75 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CEC 40 NW MFR 70 N LMT 60 NNE LMT 15 WNW 4LW 50 NNW SVE 40 W SVE 50 SE EKA 30 E CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM DRA 40 E TPH 30 WSW TWF 27U BTM 3HT GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC MTW 40 NNE ALO LNK GCK DHT 40 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 50 N HOU 20 NNE LFK 35 SE SHV JAN MEI 30 NNW MGM AHN 40 S CLT 20 S RDU 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MN AND ERN DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS...WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER FL AND ERN GULF...AND PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW FIELD OVER CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD FROM UT/CO ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER NW STATES -- IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MT/SK BETWEEN 23/06Z AND 23/12Z...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF MN DURING DAY-1 PERIOD. THIS FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SEWD OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...REACHING CENTRAL NEB AND ERN CO BY 24/12Z. ...UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER SW OVER STRONGLY HEATED/HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NEB/NERN CO. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS/MN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...SUPPORTING STRONG TO EXTREME LATE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY. MODIFIED ETA AND ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 3000-4500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION. CINH IS REMOVED FOR 1. MID-UPPER 90S F SFC TEMPS...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN FCST...AND/OR 2. ENHANCED FRONTAL ASCENT...WHICH IS POSSIBLE. STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN N OF CANADIAN BORDER. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER NRN/CENTRAL CONUS...BENEATH RELATIVELY WARM 700 AND 500 MB TEMPS...RENDERING NEAR-FRONTAL SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL WITH INCREASING DISTANCE FROM BORDER. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED...PRIND PROBABILITIES ARE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FRONTAL FORCING AND DIABATIC HEATING TO BREAK CAP THAT CATEGORICAL RISK SHOULD EXTEND INTO ERN SD. SINCE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS CANADA...BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME WLY COMPONENT...LIMITING SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB/SD BORDER NWD. FARTHER SW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH MIDLEVEL WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...INTENSE SFC HEATING AND RESULTANT DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG-SEVERE GUST AND HAIL POTENTIAL IN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. MOST PROBABLE AREA/TIME FOR SUCH ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM NERN CO ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB...IN 21Z-01Z TIME FRAME. ..EDWARDS/BANACOS.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 12:28:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 07:28:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506231239.j5NCdEgq020435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231236 SWODY1 SPC AC 231235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMX 30 N RHI 30 W EAU 20 WNW MKT 25 SW MHE 35 WSW MHE 15 W 9V9 30 NE PIR 25 SW JMS 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CEC 40 NW MFR 70 N LMT 60 NNE LMT 15 WNW 4LW 50 NNW SVE 40 W SVE 50 SE EKA 30 E CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 50 N HOU 20 NNE LFK 35 SE SHV 35 SE MLU 20 WSW MEI 30 NNW MGM 15 SSE AHN 40 S CLT 20 S RDU 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 60 SSW LAS 40 E TPH 30 WSW TWF 10 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MTW 30 S OSH 10 S CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 20 NE ALN BRL 50 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PROMINENT LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING INCLUDE A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN MANITOBA. BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES EXTEND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES OVER NWRN MT/ALBERTA AT 23/12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...PARENT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE /998MB/ OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SSWWD INTO ERN MT. FRONT MARKS LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING THAT WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY. AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY MOIST ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SEWD INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING/EVAPOTRANSITIVE EFFECTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AXIS OF LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FROM ERN ND SEWD TO SERN IA. LEAD IMPULSE AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN ND. A SEPARATE NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS UPPER MI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY ON ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH LATE MORNING. ...ERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... STRONG CAPPING INVERSION INITIALLY IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH NERN EXTENTION OF 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+14 TO +15C/ ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN WILL BE SHUNTED EWD IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/VERTICAL MOTION WITH APPROACHING DYNAMIC TROUGH. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ND AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS ERN SD AS CAP WEAKENS FROM WEST-TO-EAST. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 5000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING SUGGESTS CONDITIONAL THREAT OF FAST MOVING BOW SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LEAVES SOME QUESTION AS TO EXTENT OF CAP EROSION THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS NERN ND EWD INTO NRN MN. UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME. ...CENTRAL/WRN NEB INTO NERN CO/ERN WY... STRONG SURFACE BASED HEATING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ERN SD SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SW-NE ZONE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH PEAK HEATING CYCLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/ AND WEAK CINH BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ALONG SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCED LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LAKE EVENING. SEPARATE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN ERN WY AND CO FRONT RANGE. AS STORMS TRAVERSE DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT EWD ACROSS FAR ERN WY/NERN CO...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DCAPE VALUES PROJECTED BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG IN NAM-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. ..BANACOS/EVANS.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 16:32:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 11:32:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506231642.j5NGgcc7010598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231628 SWODY1 SPC AC 231626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMX 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 35 ESE PHP 15 W ABR 40 SSE JMS 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB 20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN/NW WI.... ...DAKOTAS/MN/NW WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX OVER MT EJECTS EWD/ENEWD NEAR AND JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN BY EARLY TONIGHT...PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN SWEPT EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ON THE NOSE OF A VERY WARM EML PLUME OVER THE DAKOTAS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 27-30 C AT THE BASE OF THE EML ARE PROVIDING A STRONG CAP OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 F. MEANWHILE... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO WRN ND...IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NE ND/MN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME /WHICH DOES NOT CONSIDER CIN/ AND THE BELT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING ALONG OR A LITTLE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONT...BENEATH THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO MN. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS...THOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CAA IN THE AREA WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM AS FAR SW AS THE HIGH PLAINS. DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 19:52:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 14:52:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506232002.j5NK2c4j021851@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232000 SWODY1 SPC AC 231958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MQT 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 40 ESE PHP 50 SE MBG 15 W JMS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB 20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN ROCKIES. A HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM NWRN MN TO ERN SD. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S F AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS MN. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FARTHER SOUTH...THE CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO WRN MN AND ERN SD BY EARLY EVENING. ACROSS ERN SD...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERED WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO ERN AND SRN MN BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION. ...HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN WY...NERN CO AND SWRN SD. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER-TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP SUGGESTING A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS SRN CA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 19:58:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 14:58:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506232009.j5NK9391026665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232006 SWODY1 SPC AC 232005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MQT 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 40 ESE PHP 50 SE MBG 15 W JMS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB 20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN ROCKIES. A HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM NWRN MN TO ERN SD. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S F AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS MN. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FARTHER SOUTH...THE CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO WRN MN AND ERN SD BY EARLY EVENING. ACROSS ERN SD...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERED WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO ERN AND SRN MN BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION. ...HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN WY...NERN CO AND SWRN SD. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER-TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP SUGGESTING A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS SRN CA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 22:38:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 17:38:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506232248.j5NMmuX0018778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232247 SWODY1 SPC AC 232245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 232245Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MQT 25 SE IWD 20 WSW OTG 55 W YKN 10 NNW HLC 35 ENE LIC 60 E CDR 55 ENE PIR 50 NE JMS 70 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50 ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB 20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS..AND NOW PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AMENDED FOR CENTRAL PLAINS ...CENTRAL PLAINS ADDITION... REF WW 514 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 00:57:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 19:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506240108.j5O187Wr010911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240106 SWODY1 SPC AC 240104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IWD MSP 20 WSW OTG 55 W YKN 10 NNW HLC 35 ENE LIC 60 E CDR 55 ENE PIR 40 E FAR 20 WNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 60 SSW SGU U24 ENV EKO OWY 40 SE BOI DLN BZN MLS P24 65 NNW DVL ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 35 S LSE MCW SUX OLU 50 WNW CNK 45 NW GCK 50 NNW TCC 40 WNW 4CR ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 30 NNW CEW TOI CSG CAE GSB 35 S ECG 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MN AND WRN LS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE/QUASISTATIONARY AREA OF HIGH HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CONUS. UP TO 100 KT FLOW OBSERVED AT 24/00Z IN NRN MT WITH NRN STREAM JET CORE...S OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER WRN NEB/NWRN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NEB. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS NERN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB AND ERN CO. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO CROSS UPPERMOST MS VALLEY AND WRN LS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NEB. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... REF SPC WWS 513/515 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF FRONT OVER NRN MN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MCS WITH PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN BOUNDARY WATERS AREA AND ADJACENT NERN MN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DIABATIC SFC COOLING WILL REDUCE SBCAPE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES MN ARROWHEAD. MUCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS INDICATE SEVERE WIND LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WITH BOW ECHOES. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT. MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...EITHER WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OR BOOKEND MESOCIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWS. FARTHER S ACROSS SD/NEB...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS OVER DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYERS....INVOF SFC FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT AND SBCINH SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...LIMITING DURATION OF ORGANIZED SEVER THREAT. REF SPC WW 514 AND ACCOMPANYING DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITHIN A FEW HORUS AFTER SUNSET. ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 05:36:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 00:36:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506240546.j5O5kdbu016801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240544 SWODY1 SPC AC 240542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MKG MLI P35 CNK HLC GLD LIC DEN FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM BZN BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS REJ PHP 40 SE 9V9 OTG ESC ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 45 SE OTH 45 WNW BKE 40 SW S80 50 SSW MSO 3DU 45 WNW GTF 25 N CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE ISN 40 SSW Y22 25 NE PHP 25 SSE PIR BKX 50 WNW RHI MQT ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC BRL TOP 30 ESE DDC TCC 4CR 35 WNW ALM 45 SE DMN ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 30 SW GBN 60 NW GBN 40 ENE BLH TRM 35 ESE PMD NID 45 SE BIH TPH 60 SW U31 30 SSE TVL 25 N SAC 55 E UKI EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 35 NNW LFK SHV MLU LUL DHN 30 NE MGR 45 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE 63S 40 SW 63S OLM 10 W HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HUL 25 W 3B1 20 N MPV 10 N ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...NEB TO NRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CONUS -- EXCEPT W COAST STATES AND MIDWEST -- WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM NM ENEWD TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY OFFSHORE CENTRAL/NRN CA THROUGH PERIOD...WITH EWD/SHOREWARD TURN POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GEN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS NRN CA AND NV...MAINLY LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS NV/UT -- IS REASONABLY PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL 00Z ETA/NGM AND MANY 21Z SREFX MEMBERS TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES TO VICINITY WRN NEB/NWRN KS BY 25/00Z. SPECTRAL MODEL IS MORE NEBULOUS WITH THIS FEATURE AND ACCORDINGLY HAS WEAKER MIDLEVEL UVV AND PRECIP RESPONSE ALONG/N OF SFC FRONT DURING AFTERNOON. SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NRN MB/SK -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD SLOWLY OVER MI/WI/IA...DECELERATING TO QUASISTATIONARY OVER PORTIONS NEB AND NERN CO. ...CENTRAL/ERN NEB TO NRN LOWER MI... STRONG SFC DIABATIC HEATING ALONG AND JUST N OF FRONT SHOULD OFFSET WEAK POSTFRONTAL CAA...AND COMBINE WITH FRONTAL ASCENT...TO DEVELOP STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL NEB TO WRN IA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LATE DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE IN FRONTAL ZONE EWD TOWARD NRN LOWER MI. DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT TOWARD LM. ALTHOUGH ONLY 25-30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED DURING PROBABLE 24/21Z-25/00Z INITIATION WINDOW...MAJORITY OF CONTRIBUTION TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL COME FROM ELY FLOW COMPONENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER...N OF SFC FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE A CORRIDOR N OF FRONT WHERE LIFTED PARCELS ARE SFC-BASED...AND/OR EFFECTIVE LAYER PARCELS EXTEND DOWNWARD TO SFC. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN THAT REGIME SUPPORT PRE-STORM MLCAPES 2500-4000 J/KG...DECREASING WITH NWD EXTENT FROM SFC BOUNDARY. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS/FOOTHILLS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN POSTFRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...FROM WRN MT TO NERN CO. MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE -- FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS -- WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WY ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN MT. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STRONG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN CINH DURING AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN CONVECTION THAT SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD BEFORE ITS NOCTURNAL DISSIPATION. DEEP SUBCLOUD/MIXED LAYERS AND LARGE SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF LARGE HAIL/WIND GENERATED ALOFT. ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 15:50:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 10:50:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506241602.j5OG1w9t032042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241558 SWODY1 SPC AC 241556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MKG MLI LWD CNK 30 SSE HLC 40 WNW GCK LAA PUB FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM BZN BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS REJ 35 WNW PHP 9V9 15 E MKT 30 NW ESC 55 E MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 SW LFK 35 SSE GGG 55 WSW MLU 25 SW 0A8 15 W MCN 40 SE AGS 35 S EWN ...CONT... 15 WSW CLE 20 SE CMH 45 WNW LOZ 25 E PAH 25 W CGI 20 NNW UIN 30 SSE P35 25 S TCC 15 W TCS 30 SSE DMN ...CONT... 50 WNW MRF 40 ESE GDP 15 SSW INK 35 NE FST 20 S P07 ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 25 S GBN 50 WNW GBN 25 WNW IPL 40 NNE SAN 25 NE OXR 30 E MER RBL 35 E ACV 35 E 4BK 30 SSE RDM 25 NNE BKE 40 S S80 60 NE S80 10 SSE S06 GEG 20 SW EAT 20 SSW HQM ...CONT... 60 NNW MOT 40 WSW BIS 15 NE PIR 20 SE ATY 30 NE MQT ...CONT... 20 NNW EPM 35 N AUG 20 ENE MPV 10 N ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN MT.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SYSTEM SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN EXTENDING WSWWD TO ALONG SRN MN/IA BORDER THEN WWD VICINITY SD/NE BORDER. UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA LATE TONIGHT WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS ENEWD FROM SWRN U.S. ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO THE NERN COAST. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SWD AS FAR AS CENTRAL NEB INTO ECENTRAL CO. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... AHEAD OF COLD FRONT A VERY WARM AND MOIST WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS EWD ACROSS WI AND MI THIS AM. OVERNIGHT SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN WI ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG POLAR JET ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON EWD FROM CURRENT WI ACTIVITY AS STRONG HEATING WEAKENS CAP AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE DEVELOPING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TO MS VALLEY... SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN IA WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILES IN BOUNDARY LAYER VICINITY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30KT. MCS WILL THEN TRACK ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARIES TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPSLOPE FLOW N OF CURRENT BOUNDARIES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM ERN CO NWD INTO ERN WY/SERN MT. THE 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW MT/NRN WY DECREASES TO AROUND 20KT NERN CO. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON SERN MT THRU ERN WY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH BASED STORMS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT RATHER LOW. FURTHER S INTO CO...SHEAR IS WEAKER AND MORE MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF HIGH TERRAIN INTO PLAINS DURING AFTERNOON. STILL A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 19:31:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 14:31:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506241943.j5OJhTMP001557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241941 SWODY1 SPC AC 241940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE APN 30 NNW MKG 40 NNW BRL LWD 45 WSW HLC 30 SE LIC 25 SSW FCL 25 S CPR 25 SE COD 35 ENE DLN 15 NNE BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS 10 SE REJ 15 WNW PHP 9V9 30 ENE FSD 25 E MKT 60 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB 20 E MPV 10 N ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 SW LFK 35 SSE GGG 55 WSW MLU 25 SW 0A8 10 WSW MCN 25 SSE CAE 20 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 ESE GDP 15 SSW INK 35 NE FST 20 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW MOT 40 WSW BIS 40 N PIR 30 NW HON 50 NE BKX 25 WNW MSP 55 NNE MQT ...CONT... 40 SE DTW 40 NE DAY 15 N SDF 30 ENE MDH 30 NE COU 35 NNW SZL 25 ENE HUT 20 ENE TCC 35 SE TCS 40 SSW DMN ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 25 S GBN 45 WNW GBN 50 W EED 10 SSW DAG 40 SE FAT 35 N FAT RBL 35 E ACV 35 E 4BK 30 SSE RDM 25 NNE BKE 40 S S80 60 NE S80 10 SSE S06 GEG 20 SW EAT 20 SSW HQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN WSWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE NEB ENEWD ACROSS IA INTO WI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER MOST OF IA. THIS AREA APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO SEVERE MULTICELLS MAY OCCUR BY EVENING DUE TO THE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND CONGEALING DOWNDRAFTS/MCS FORMATION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST IN THE LOW-LEVELS SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALSO MAY KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH A DECREASING THREAT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY FINALLY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDS NWWD FROM WRN NEB ACROSS ERN WY INTO SE MT. AS THE MTN CONVECTION MOVES GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 01:10:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 20:10:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506250121.j5P1LVhW018931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250118 SWODY1 SPC AC 250117 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0817 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DTW 50 SE FWA SDF 50 SE BNA RMG AHN FLO CRE ...CONT... 20 ESE OSC 15 E MKG 10 SW RFD LWD 10 NNE RSL 20 SSW LAA 20 S LAR 50 SSE CPR 55 NNW RWL 35 ENE DLN 15 NNE BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT 40 NNE 4BQ Y22 10 NE PHP 45 SW 9V9 10 SW YKN 30 W LSE 20 N PLN ...CONT... GLS HOU 45 NE CLL 30 SSE TYR ELD PBF POF 40 W STL 55 NNE SZL FLV 60 S LBL CVS 55 WSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW TUS GBN EED DAG RBL 50 E CEC MFR BKE S80 MSO 30 NNW GTF 40 SW GGW SDY 40 WSW BIS MBG MHE OTG FRM 45 NNE GRB ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB MPV MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE WILL REMAIN STRONG RIDGING FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY...ERN/CENTRAL LOW PLAINS...TO NWRN MEX. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER NRN MB/ONT BORDER REGION IS FCST TO REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY...WITH INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CENTRAL CA COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE IN PERIOD...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN SOME NOCTURNAL GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL IN SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN REGIONS. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SAULT REGION OF MI/ONT...SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY SWWD OVER S-CENTRAL NEB AND E-CENTRAL CO. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI... SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG AND BEHIND SFC FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. DVN/APN RAOBS AND INTERMEDIATE RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYERS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GREATLY HINDER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT ALONG FRONT...AND BUOYANCY DECREASES. REF SPC WWS 518/519 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM SITUATION. ...SRN/ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA... GREATEST COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH POST-FRONTAL DEW POINTS IN 70S F AND ELY FLOW ENLARGING 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES APPROXIMATELY 3000 J/KG AND 0-3 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG N OF FRONT... PER 00Z OAX RAOB AND NEARBY RUC SOUNDINGS IN IA AND ERN NEB. DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC SUPPORT IS MORE MARGINAL...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND AFFECTIVE SHEARS ROUGHLY 40 KT. STILL...THIS PROFILE FAVORS SUPERCELLS WITH TENDENCY TOWARD HEAVY PRECIP MODE... AND CLUSTERING/MERGERS LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL BOWS WITH TIME. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR IS CAPPING...THOUGH FRONTAL FORCING STILL MAY RESULT IN REMOVAL OF VERY SMALL CINH EVIDENT IN OAX SOUNDING. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THIS CORRIDOR...INCLUDING POSSIBLE BACKBUILDING FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA ACTIVITY...MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL...BY CONTRAST...IS STRONGLY CONDITIONAL...MARGINAL AND TIED LARGELY TO STORM-SCALE PROCESSES. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT MOVING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN MT SEWD ACROSS WY AND WRN NEB...TO ERN CO/NERN KS. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT SUPPORTS SUPERCELL MODE OVER CORRIDOR BETWEEN SNY-BIL...WHILE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S. REF WWS 517/520 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FARTHER E AND WITH TIME...AS NEAR-SFC LAYER STABILIZES...AND INFLOW BECOMES MORE ELEVATED WITH LOWER THETAE. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT OVER LAURENTIAN PLATEAU OF QUE MAY BE SUSTAINED AS IT MOVES ESEWD TOWARD NRN MAINE...AND PERHAPS NRN VT/NH...BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION EVIDENT JUST TO ITS S AND PROGGED TO EXTEND SEWD OVERNIGHT. DIABATICALLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS AT SFC BY THE TIME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE OVER AREA...AFTER ABOUT 08Z. HOWEVER...PROGS OF 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR/BOW STRUCTURES AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 05:38:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 00:38:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506250549.j5P5na9j018198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250547 SWODY1 SPC AC 250545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI MLD 25 ESE OGD PUC 40 WSW 4HV 15 SSW MLF 60 ENE ELY 50 SSE EKO 40 N U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY 50 SE BOI BYI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL DVL 45 WNW ABR 9V9 BBW 30 WNW HLC 35 SW GLD LIC CYS GCC 60 SW MLS 35 NW BIL BZN HLN 35 NW GTF 40 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW RRT 35 ENE BJI DLH 25 S MQT 20 NNE TVC 30 N MBS 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSE BOS 10 SSE ABE 15 N CHO 30 SSE PSK 35 SSE TRI 30 SW HKY 35 W SOP 25 NE FAY 30 E GSB 30 NE ECG ...CONT... 75 W COT 15 NW COT 25 N AUS 25 S FTW 40 E OKC 20 NNE BVO 45 E ICT ICT 30 WNW P28 30 E AMA 35 E CNM 55 WNW MRF ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 NW TUS 30 ESE PHX 60 WNW PHX 20 E EED 20 SSW LAS 30 NNW LAS 30 NW P38 30 SE ELY 40 W ELY 45 N TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 NE MER 35 E SCK 15 W UKI 60 SSE EKA 20 NE ACV EUG 25 SSE SLE 40 SE SLE 25 SE RDM 55 N BNO 15 ESE PUW 20 ESE GEG 25 NW GEG 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS GREAT BASIN REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGING FROM NWRN MEX ACROSS S-CENTRAL CONUS TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG S-CENTRAL CA COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE START OF PERIOD AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD UT. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...THOUGH...AS SYSTEM BECOMES POSITIVELY-TILTED/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. MEANWHILE....SFC FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LH WSWWD ACROSS IA/NEB AND ERN CO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUE/ONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER OH/INDIANA/IL...AND LIFTING NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM SERN MT/NWRN WY AREA SFC LOW SSEWD OVER ERN CO. ...NRN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION FROM SFC LOW SWD INVOF LEE TROUGH...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH SUPERCELLS MORE PROBABLE FROM ERN WY/WRN NEB NWD AND MULTICELLS PREDOMINATING FARTHER S. DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ACROSS ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA -- 8-9 DEG C/KM. 50S/60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG...SOMEWHAT GREATER OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS WHERE HIGH DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY. TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS WRN ND AND CENTRAL/WRN MT...IN NRN SEMICIRCLE OF SFC CYCLONE. IN THAT REGIME...BACKED SFC FLOW WILL BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE AND ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...ENHANCING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL RELATIVE TO AREAS FATHER S. GIVEN THIS FACTOR AND POSSIBILITY OF LOWER LCL RESULTING FROM SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR LARGEST IN THIS REGION. MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OVER ND WHERE 40-50 KT NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP...E OF LEE-SIDE CYCLONE. ...GREAT BASIN... VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT DAY...COINCIDING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING CINH AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC...WITH SMALL BUT LONG-TRACK BOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS BASIN AND RANGE COUNTRY. ...MID ATLANTIC TO MID MS VALLEY... WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE IN 100-200 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CLOSELY CORRESPONDING TO FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND OVERCOME WEAK MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYERS...TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE WEAK NEAR FRONT...LIMITING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND AREA ALSO WILL BE LOCATED S OF IDEAL MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELDS. THEREFORE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE FROM MS VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC ALONG YET UNDEVELOPED...SMALL SCALE FOCI WITHIN FRONTAL BELT. SUCH PROCESSES COULD CONCENTRATE SEVERE POTENTIAL ENOUGH SUBREGIONALLY TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE PICKING SUCH AN AREA ATTM. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 12:38:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 07:38:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506251250.j5PCo56v023366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251247 SWODY1 SPC AC 251246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 45 E BIS 10 WNW HON SPW DSM BIE 35 S MCK 35 NNE EHA 45 SSW LAA COS CYS SHR 40 S BIL WEY 45 W BPI 40 E PUC 50 WSW 4HV MLF 45 NE ELY 50 SSE EKO 40 N U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY BOI 55 SSW MSO GTF 40 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W COT 15 NW COT 25 N AUS 25 S FTW 40 E OKC 20 NNE BVO 45 E ICT ICT 30 WNW P28 30 E AMA 35 E CNM 55 WNW MRF ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 NW TUS 30 ESE PHX 60 WNW PHX 35 SSE EED 20 SSW LAS 30 NNW LAS 30 NW P38 30 SE ELY 40 W ELY 45 N TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 NE MER 35 E SCK 15 W UKI 60 SSE EKA 20 NE ACV EUG 25 SSE SLE 40 SE SLE 25 SE RDM 55 N BNO 15 ESE PUW 20 ESE GEG 25 NW GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 40 ESE RRT 35 ENE BJI 55 SSW IWD 40 S IMT 30 NW TVC 20 E HTL 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSE BOS 10 SSE ABE 15 N CHO 30 SSE PSK 35 SSE TRI 30 SW HKY 35 W SOP 25 NE FAY 30 E GSB 30 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...ERN MT/DAKOTAS... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO NORTHEAST MT BY THIS EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT OVER EASTERN MT...SPREADING INTO WESTERN ND DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. ...NV/UT... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NV/UT TODAY. A DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NV/UT AHEAD OF SYSTEM...WHERE COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. ...ID/MT... STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN ID/SOUTHWEST MT BY EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND TERRAIN SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THESE REGIONS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...SD/WY/CO/WRN NEB/WRN KS... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WY/CO...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB/WESTERN KS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. ...ERN NEB/SRN SD/WESTERN IA... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEB. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER. STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF FEATURE WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 16:13:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 11:13:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506251625.j5PGPPgO017040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251609 SWODY1 SPC AC 251608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 45 E BIS 10 WNW HON SPW DSM BIE 35 S MCK 35 NNE EHA 45 SSW LAA COS CYS SHR 40 S BIL WEY 45 W BPI 40 E PUC 50 WSW 4HV MLF 45 NE ELY 50 SSE EKO 40 N U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY BOI 55 SSW MSO GTF 40 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E EWB 25 S ABE 30 ESE MGW 10 SSW CRW 40 E TRI 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI 30 NE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW ELO 20 SSW IMT 55 N MTC ...CONT... 65 W COT 25 NNW SAT 15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 20 WSW OKC 40 ESE END 15 NNE SGF 40 ESE SZL 25 ESE OJC 30 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE HOB 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 75 S GBN 10 SSW GBN 45 WNW GBN 35 E BLH 25 SE EED 55 ENE LAS 25 SSW P38 50 WNW P38 30 ESE TPH 40 SSW TPH 55 S BIH 45 ESE FAT 40 E SCK 35 E RBL 20 SW RBL 30 E UKI UKI 30 SE EKA 40 NE ACV 25 WSW MFR 30 NNE MFR 55 S RDM 45 ESE RDM BKE 15 ESE PUW 20 ESE GEG 25 NW GEG 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SRN ROCKIES ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. TO EASTERN SEABOARD. CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OFFSHORE CA HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND CURRENTLY TRACKING NEWD ACROSS SRN SIERRAS INTO NV...WHILE NRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM SRN BC INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD INTO NERN U.S. CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM VICINITY ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS SRN MI/WI THEN WWD ACROSS SRN SD. PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL RETURN NWD AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN LEE OF NRN ROCKIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE S/WV TROUGHS FROM THE W. S OF FRONT A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS PREVAILS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE E COAST. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... HAVE INCREASED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND AND HAIL FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN ND AS A STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MT WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH FULL HEATING... THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE MUCH OF ERN MT WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG OR GREATER. AS S/WV MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM SRN B.C. THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO 40-50 KT WHICH COUPLED WITH UP TO 30KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CREATES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM POTENTIAL FOR BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN ND. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... THE BAND OF 50-60KT 500 MB WINDS ROTATING ACROSS UT INTO SERN ID/WRN WY AS TROUGH OVER SRN SIERRAS LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NV THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES PROVIDES ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...PARTICULARLY OVER NV...HOWEVER MID LEVEL CONVECTION ONGOING SWRN UT SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON NWD ACROSS NRN UT INTO SRN ID AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH. WITH THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM THE HIGH BASED STORMS COUPLED WITH THE 40-50KT OF SHEAR...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH MANY OF THE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO MID MS VALLEY... WHILE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MDTLY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE S OF FRONTAL ZONE....THE LACK OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN WY/CO INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER E THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY BOTH EXISTING CLOUDINESS REDUCING SURFACE HEATING AND THE WEAKER SHEAR. MULTICELLULAR STORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY NEAR PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES INCLUDING THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AREAS WHERE HEATING CAN REDUCE CIN. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN MUCH OF THIS AREA. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 19:42:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 14:42:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506251954.j5PJs3cD009305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251951 SWODY1 SPC AC 251950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 40 E BIS 30 SSE ABR 20 ENE BKX 25 NNW FRM 15 NW MCW 35 E FOD 45 SSW FOD 30 E GRI 40 W HLC 25 ESE LAA 15 SW LHX 25 N COS 25 NW CYS 55 SSE CPR 25 N RWL 40 E RKS 30 ENE 4BL 40 SE U17 45 W PGA 60 NNE P38 10 S EKO 60 NW OWY 45 NNW BOI 25 NNE 3DU 30 N HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 25 NNW SAT 15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 25 WSW OKC 40 S PNC 15 NNW UMN 35 NNE SGF 35 SSE SZL 20 SE OJC 25 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE HOB 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 70 WSW PRC 30 SSW SGU 70 SSW ELY 35 N TPH 45 NNE BIH 55 S BIH 40 SSE FAT 50 NNE SAC 50 SSE RBL 45 ESE UKI 15 S UKI 55 SE EKA 40 E OTH 35 ENE EUG 25 W RDM 65 S RDM 45 N 4LW 15 NE BNO 40 N BKE 25 NW GEG 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 30 NNW ELO 40 NNW IWD 25 SSW IMT 35 WSW HTL 55 N MTC ...CONT... 20 E EWB 25 S ABE 30 ESE MGW 10 SSW CRW 40 E TRI 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI 30 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD OVER NRN MT. THE PLUME IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ECNTRL AND NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN SD EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ERN MT AND WRN ND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THIS AXIS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS SUPERCELLS IN ERN MT DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN WRN SD. STORM MOTIONS OF ABOUT 40 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS...MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH OVER CA/NV WITH THE RUC SHOWING STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD INTO UT. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SRN ID WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND SRN WY. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE WEST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS...THE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 01:04:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 20:04:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506260115.j5Q1FZxC029511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260112 SWODY1 SPC AC 260111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 50 ENE BIS 35 S ABR 25 ENE BKX 25 NNW FRM 20 WNW MCW 30 NNW DSM 35 SSE OMA 30 ESE GRI 30 E MCK 30 E LAA 15 SW LHX 25 N COS 20 ENE LAR 45 S CPR 30 NNW RWL 40 E RKS 55 WSW MTJ 35 NE BCE 40 SSW MLD TWF 10 NE OWY 45 NNW WMC 70 S BNO 30 NW BZN 15 SE GTF 65 W GGW 60 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 25 NNW SAT 15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 40 NE ADM 30 SW TUL 15 NNW UMN 35 NNE SGF 35 SSE SZL 20 SE OJC 25 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE HOB 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 50 WNW SAD 60 SSE IGM 55 NW P38 10 NE TPH 45 WSW TPH 55 S BIH 40 SSE FAT 50 NNE SAC 50 SSE RBL 45 ESE UKI 15 S UKI 55 SE EKA 40 E OTH 35 ENE EUG 25 W RDM 65 S RDM 45 N 4LW 15 NE BNO 40 N BKE 25 NW GEG 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 W RRT 45 ESE BJI 25 SSW IMT 30 NNW HTL OSC ...CONT... 20 SE BOS 10 NE MSV 40 E PSB 45 NNE BWG CSV 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI 30 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WWD TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA...WILL TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. BAND OF MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN CANADA WHILE A SSELY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS FROM ERN MT/WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MT REACHING ERN MT BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR SHR MOVES TOWARD NWRN SD. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN DAKOTAS ATOP NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM ERN MT/WRN ND TO NEB WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA TROUGH AND WAA INCREASING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH CAPE/EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES RESULTING IN SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA... A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN SD SEWD TO NRN NEB AND CENTRAL IA WILL REMAIN THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...WITH MODERATE MUCAPES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THIS REGION REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...NOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PER WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NEB/SD FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF HAIL/STRONG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER NV IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY SOME AS IT TRACKS TOWARD ERN ID/ERN UT TONIGHT. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PER REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO IA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL BEING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM IA INTO PARTS OF SRN MN/ SWRN WI. FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...REFER TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION FROM HPC. FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 06:04:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 01:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506260616.j5Q6GMP1032199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260614 SWODY1 SPC AC 260613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX 60 WSW IWD 20 WSW EAU 25 SE RST 25 SW FSD 20 E ANW 15 E LBF 25 ENE GLD 30 ENE LIC 15 NE CYS 35 SE DGW 45 NNE CPR 20 E WEY 15 WNW LVM 65 ENE BIL 45 NNW MLS 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO 10 ESE AUS 35 SSE FTW 30 ENE HUT 35 NW HUT 40 ESE DDC 20 NNE GAG 40 NNE CDS 45 NNE BGS 45 SW MRF ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 35 WNW SVC 60 E SOW 30 ENE INW 10 NNW FLG 30 NNW GCN 25 N U17 50 NW GJT 15 SW RKS 25 NNE EVW 30 ESE ENV 55 E U31 20 NE U31 35 WNW WMC 60 NNE SVE 50 SW MHS 35 SSW MFR 20 N RDM 30 NNW PDT 40 SSW GEG 45 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 50 W EAT 50 SSE BLI 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE CTB 25 SE HVR 65 W GGW 25 N GGW 55 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW BUF 20 SW UCA 35 NNW PBG ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 60 WNW HUL HUL ...CONT... 15 SSW JFK 30 NE HGR 15 ESE MGW 45 SSE PKB 20 NNW SSU 25 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD TO PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE NRN BC COAST DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE EJECTION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO ERN MT/WY BY 27/00Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE EAST...26/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SERN STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK W/NW TOWARD ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND THE OH VALLEY TODAY. ...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN SD IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE EWD TOWARD ABR AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A SSWLY LLJ AS IT REDEVELOPS NWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SPREADING NWD. THE SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL ND BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN/WI AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEPARATE LOW LEVEL JETS NOSING INTO THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NNEWD AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ND/SD TO SRN MN. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATOP A MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN MN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT/WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SD SURFACE LOW AS UVVS INCREASE OVER THIS AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS FROM INITIALLY ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY AND THE DAKOTAS BEFORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS E AND NE. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL THE GREATEST. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. ...FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SWWD TO ERN CO/NM. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASING WITH SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN NEB TO PARTS OF ERN CO...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXTENDING WWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT UVVS WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO WRN ID/SERN ORE. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MAINLY SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO SERN NY/NERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 12:20:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 07:20:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506261231.j5QCVTQW009348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261229 SWODY1 SPC AC 261227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 35 WSW STC HON PHP Y22 JMS FAR BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX IWD EAU RST FSD ANW LBF GLD LIC CYS DGW 45 NNE CPR 25 E WEY 10 N LVM 65 ENE BIL OLF 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 60 WNW HUL HUL ...CONT... 15 SSW JFK 30 NE HGR 15 ESE MGW 45 SSE PKB 20 NNW SSU 25 NE SBY ...CONT... 10 NNW BUF 20 SW UCA 35 NNW PBG ...CONT... 50 NE CTB 25 SE HVR 65 W GGW 25 N GGW 55 N OLF ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 35 WNW SVC 60 E SOW 30 ENE INW 10 NNW FLG 20 NNE GCN 15 ENE U17 45 WNW GJT 40 SW RKS 10 NNW EVW 50 NNW BIH 45 E FAT 45 SSW TVL 20 ESE SVE 50 NNE RBL 50 SW MHS 35 SSW MFR 70 NNW BNO 15 NNE PDT 50 WNW PUW 45 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 50 W EAT 50 SSE BLI 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO 10 ESE AUS 35 SSE FTW 30 ENE HUT 35 NW HUT 40 ESE DDC 20 NNE GAG 40 NNE CDS 45 NNE BGS 45 SW MRF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...AND WESTERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM UT/AZ INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN UT WILL MOVE ACROSS WY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN. ...ND/SD/MN... MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING MCS OVER EASTERN ND. THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST SD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MN. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL SD. VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. WEAK CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS NEAR SURFACE LOW...AND EXPAND EASTWARD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN MN. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF LOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH AN EVOLUTION INTO A FAST MOVING MCS. ...MT/WY... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTHEAST WY TODAY...LEADING TO AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. NORTHERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NEB/CO... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEB/KS DURING THE EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...WRN MT/SRN ID... POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ID BY THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ...NEW ENGLAND... HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...BUT WEAK LOW/DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL PA INTO MAINE...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LACK OF SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 16:16:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 11:16:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506261627.j5QGRrQh007802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261614 SWODY1 SPC AC 261612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 15 SSW STC 20 ESE PIR 55 NW PHP 35 SSW DIK 30 NW JMS 50 WSW BJI BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX IWD EAU RST FSD ANW LBF 50 WNW GCK 25 N LAA 15 ESE CYS DGW 45 NNE CPR 25 E WEY 10 N LVM 65 ENE BIL 30 SE OLF 70 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EWB 20 N GON 15 SSE POU 20 SE MSV 35 WSW ALB 20 SE GFL 20 W LCI 10 NNE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 HUL ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 50 ENE LUK 40 SSW LUK 20 WNW LOZ 30 WSW BLF 15 SE SBY ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO 45 ENE ACT 30 E LWD 30 SE OMA 25 N GAG 20 S LBB 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 40 ESE SOW 30 WSW GJT 45 ESE SLC 55 SSW ELY 30 NW U31 40 W WMC 40 N SVE 30 NNE LMT 30 NW BNO 40 NW BKE 45 SW GEG 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 WSW HVR 70 SE HVR 60 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SD...ND AND WESTERN MN..... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY TROUGH REMAINS OVER WRN U.S. WITH A SWLY FLOW EXTENDING EWD FROM ROCKIES TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S/W TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN W/V IMAGERY CURRENTLY SRN WY/WRN CO WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ALONG B.C. COAST TO MAINTAIN COOL TROUGHINESS OVER NWRN STATES. SURFACE FRONT HAS SAGGED SWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN EXTENDS WWD AS A QUASISTATIONARY FEATURE ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SD. ...DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA... WITH APPROACH OF THE S/WV CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A SLY/SELY FLOW OF VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF DAKOTAS. A DRIER SWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN SD/WRN NE WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VICINITY THE E/W BOUNDARY THAT IS JUST S OF ND/SD BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE N DURING AFTERNOON AS SLY WINDS INCREASE WITH THE DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW. VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN VICINITY AND S OF BOUNDARY AND E OF SURFACE LOW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH INCREASES TO 40-50 KT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCLS VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY MDT SHEAR AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWD VICINITY DEVELOPING N/S DRY LINE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW SWD INTO WRN NEB. BY EVENING A SEVERE MCS SHOULD EVOLVE AND CONTINUE NEWD INTO MN E FEEDING OFF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS MOVES ACROSS NRN MN. ...MT/WY... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND NLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO W OF SD SURFACE LOW WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE SWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NEB/CO... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE IMMEDIATELY E OF FRONT RANGE WILL CONFINE THREAT TO ISOLATED SEVERE FROM HIGH BASED STORMS...HOWEVER FURTHER E INTO HIGH PLAINS...DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A GREATER NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO S OF E/W FRONTAL BAND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH MLCAPES RISING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH MID 90S. PULSE SEVERE IS LIKELY WITH PRIMARILY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS THE EXPECTED THREAT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY AND ALSO VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM THE COOL ATLANTIC WATERS. ...WRN MT/SRN ID... WITH A COOL/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING AFTERNOON. PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. RELATIVE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 19:50:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 14:50:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506262002.j5QK24Xr001324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261959 SWODY1 SPC AC 261958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HON 35 NE PHP 60 NNE RAP 30 WNW Y22 25 ESE DIK 10 SSW TVF 50 ENE BJI 40 W DLH 35 ENE STC 30 N RWF HON. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW CMX 35 SW IWD EAU 35 W RST 15 SW OTG 50 NNE BUB 20 E LBF 25 SE GLD 25 ENE LAA 20 E LHX 35 SSE LIC 10 NNW DGW 55 SW GCC 10 E WEY 15 SSW BZN 45 NNE BZN 55 ESE LWT 35 SE OLF 55 NNW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW HYA 25 W BDR 35 S MSV 25 SE BGM 35 SE UCA 10 SSW RUT 10 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 30 SSE SAT 45 NE ACT 15 WSW IRK 30 SE DSM 50 W DSM 20 NE LNK 15 NW CNK 30 N GAG 20 S LBB 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 15 ENE FMN 30 NNW GJT 60 N PUC 45 SW DPG 25 NE U31 40 SE 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 10 SW ALW 40 NE EPH 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 WSW HVR 70 SE HVR 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 HUL ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 45 ENE LUK 45 NNW LEX 35 WSW LEX 25 WNW LOZ 30 WSW BLF 30 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WY MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD ACROSS NRN SD INTO SCNTRL MN. CONVECTION IS ONGOING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN MN WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN NRN SD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN ND...MOST OF SD AND THE SWRN HALF OF MN WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER ERN SD AND SE ND. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. WINDS ARE BACKED NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD HELP STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT. A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN FROM SW TO NE...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH FAST MOVING CELLS. MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MN...SRN ND AND NRN SD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN MCS EVENTUALLY FORMING OVER SRN ND AND TRACKING EWD INTO WRN MN OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ...HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY DROP OFF TOWARD LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES/GREAT LAKES... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM LOWER MI ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NEW ENGLAND. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS HELPING STORMS INITIATE ACROSS LOWER MI...NRN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ESPECIALLY OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 06:04:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 01:04:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506270615.j5R6Fl22001783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270613 SWODY1 SPC AC 270612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MQT 30 NNE VOK 40 W JVL 35 SSE MLI 25 SSW UIN 25 NNE SZL 25 S TOP 25 N MCK BFF 50 NNW DGW COD 25 S BZN 30 ESE 3DU 60 NE MSO 40 SSW CTB 25 WSW HVR 35 NNW MLS 45 WNW PIR 50 WNW HON 65 ENE ABR 20 NNE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 45 W NIR 40 ESE AUS 40 W MKO 40 ESE ICT 30 SE RSL 30 WNW CDS 20 ESE INK MRF 60 SW MRF ...CONT... 55 SE ELP 15 S ALM 20 SSW 4CR 25 S TCC 40 NE CAO 40 N LAA 35 WSW AKO 10 SW FCL 30 SSW LAR 20 WNW LAR 35 N RWL 35 SW LND 25 W MLD 55 NE 4LW 55 SSE RDM 45 W PDT 10 SW EPH 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 40 W MOT 55 ENE MOT 35 N DVL 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 30 SSE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD TO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NWWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PAC NW TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A BAND OF 35-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER WRN NEB...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN...WILL TRACK EWD REACHING SD/NEB BY 00Z AND THEN INTO SRN MN/IA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NRN MN SWWD TO SERN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...AND THEN NWWD TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN MT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SWWD FROM TRIPLE POINT OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MN/WI TO PARTS OF MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AND WWD ACROSS SD/NEB... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ND. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MO VALLEY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG/ EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SD/NEB MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAKER INSTABILITY INTO PARTS OF MN...BUT AS STATED...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHS MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVER SD/NEB IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER MN/SERN SD BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WWD ACROSS SD/NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BECOME LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB AND NWRN IA. 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ NOSING INTO NWRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. 27/00Z NAM AND 26/21Z NAMKF SUPPORT THE UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF THIS LATTER AREA OF SUPERCELL STORMS INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND ERN NEB. IF THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK. ...MT/NRN WY... RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO MT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING OVER THIS REGION WITH THE PAC NW TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND SEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...WRN KS TO WRN TX/SERN NM... LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ATOP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN KS SWWD TO SERN NM AND WRN TX. IF STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT SUGGEST HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES TODAY...WITH IT TRACKING NNEWD ACROSS THE LOWER TN VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION BY PEAK HEATING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -8 C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 11:59:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 06:59:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506271210.j5RCAuhW012864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271208 SWODY1 SPC AC 271207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF BFF SHR 25 N WEY 3DU 50 NNW FCA 60 ENE CTB HVR 40 NNW MLS Y22 ABR BJI INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 30 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ISN 35 WNW P24 35 WSW DVL 10 N DVL 80 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 15 S ALM 20 SSW 4CR 25 S TCC 40 NE CAO 40 N LAA 35 WSW AKO 10 SW FCL 30 SSW LAR 20 WNW LAR 35 N RWL 35 SW LND 25 W MLD 60 NE 4LW 10 NNW 4LW 40 NNE LMT 50 W PDT 20 NNE EPH 65 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 20 SSW CLL 40 W MKO 40 ESE ICT 30 SE RSL 30 WNW CDS 20 ESE INK 30 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT/WY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...WI/MI... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST FEATURE IS WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEB. THIS VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MN/WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WI...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...MN/SD/IA/NEB... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN/EASTERN SD BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON DEVELOPING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MN/SD. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN THIS REGION WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. OTHER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY LATE EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA. ...MT/WY... SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY FROM WESTERN SD ACROSS SOUTHERN MT. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ID/ORE... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ORE AND ID TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ORE/CENTRAL ID. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS IN THIS REGION. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. ...MID MS AND TN VALLEY... WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM MO/AR ACROSS KY/TN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 16:18:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 11:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506271630.j5RGUIRB008267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271617 SWODY1 SPC AC 271615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF BFF SHR 25 N WEY 3DU 50 NNW FCA 60 ENE CTB HVR 40 NNW MLS Y22 ABR BJI INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 35 ENE DMN 35 WNW SVC 45 ESE SOW 45 SSW GNT 20 NW 4CR 45 WSW CAO 20 ESE LAA 20 SW GLD 45 S DGW 20 NW CPR 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW OWY 35 E BNO 35 WSW S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNE ISN 20 SSW MOT 45 SSW DVL 15 SW GFK 45 W RRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 25 W LFK 15 N UMN 10 NW CNU 50 WSW P28 55 N CDS 20 ENE MAF 15 SSE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW WITH A SWLY FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAYS S/WV TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE PLAINS CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. RIDGE BUILDS INTO SRN ROCKIES NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF BOTH THE S/WV IMPULSE MOVING THRU PAC NW AND UPPER LOW IN SRN BRANCH APPROACHING CENTRAL CA COAST TONIGHT. WHILE A WARM UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ERN U.S...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD THRU TN VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. ALSO A WARM CORE LOW DELMARVA ALSO MOVES SLOWLY N INTO SRN NY BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A LOW CURRENTLY SWRN ONTARIO IS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING S/WV AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EWD EXTENDING BY THIS EVENING FROM WRN LS SWWD INTO ERN NEB. STRONG 40KT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY AHEAD OF FRONT INTO WRN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING AFTERNOON AS SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS DEPART U.S. HOWEVER IN PLACE IS A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... MORNING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD THIN AND ALLOW STRONG HEATING. WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F AND TEMPERATURES BY MID AFTERNOON RANGING UPWARDS FROM THE 80S TO LOW 90S...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/K COMMON. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 25-30KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM NERN NEB TO SRN MN WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT REMAINING ISOLATED GIVEN THE MARGINAL AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S BY EVENING... MAINTAINING AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS IA AND WI. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS WWD ACROSS MT... A MOIST ELY/NELY FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WWD ACROSS MT THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WITH HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG COMMON. 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MT AHEAD OF NW U.S. TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY...THEN MOVING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW LCLS. ...TN VALLEY... A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING NWD THRU TN VALLEY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOON AFTER SUNSET. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO SRN ROCKIES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ON WRN EDGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WRN KS TO SWRN TX. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W WITH UP TO 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING VICINITY LEE SURFACE TROUGH. BY MID AFTERNOON THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN KS SSWWD TO VICINITY SERN NM/TX BORDER. ..NEW ENGLAND... REF MCD 1498 AGAIN TODAY A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NERN U.S. AND HAS SPREAD A LITTLE NWD INTO NRN VT/NH. UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THE SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLY GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 20:01:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 15:01:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506272013.j5RKDE62023556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272009 SWODY1 SPC AC 272007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF 25 ESE BFF 10 SSE SHR 20 NNE WEY 3DU 50 NNW FCA 65 ENE CTB 65 SSW GGW 60 WSW DIK 10 WNW ATY 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 30 WNW LFK 20 NNW MLC 20 SSE CNU 40 WSW HUT 50 N CDS 20 ENE MAF 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP 35 ENE DMN 35 WNW SVC 45 ESE SOW 45 SSW GNT 20 NW 4CR 15 SE TAD 20 SW GLD 45 S DGW 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW OWY 35 E BNO 35 WSW S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNE ISN 20 SSW MOT 45 SSW DVL 15 SW GFK 45 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT SEWD INTO THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS / MID MO VALLEYS WNWWD INTO MT... BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN MN ATTM...WITH STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING FURTHER S INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MEAN-LAYER CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG/ IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGEST WIND FIELD -- AND THUS GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF MN INTO NWRN WI. WEAKER -- BUT STILL SUFFICIENT -- SHEAR FURTHER S SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WITH WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO MT / ERN WY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...EXPECT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL TO INCREASE WITH TIME. OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP / MOVE EWD ACROSS SD / NEB AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ...MID MS / LOWER OH / TN VALLEYS... MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION DUE TO MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER POCKET OF MID-LEVEL AIR INVOF UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WRN TN ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INVOF THIS FEATURE...AND WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. ADDITIONALLY...MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM PULSE. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... MARGINAL / HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED INVOF LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM ATTM. UPSLOPE / SELY FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX INTO SERN NM HAS SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...GUSTY / DRY MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL. ...NEW ENGLAND... MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH REGION OF 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO VT / WRN NH. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK SUGGESTING LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION...A COUPLE STRONGER / PULSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ..GOSS.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:56:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:56:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506280107.j5S17Q2S005317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280104 SWODY1 SPC AC 280102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ MBL MKE BRL P35 35 S FNB 55 N RSL 30 ESE IML 40 SW IML 20 SE AKO 45 ESE CYS 50 E DGW 10 SSW SHR 20 NNE WEY 3DU 55 NNW FCA 30 NNW HVR 30 NW Y22 35 NNE 9V9 25 S RWF 15 W HIB 75 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 30 WNW LFK 20 NNW MLC 20 SSE CNU 45 ENE DDC 25 NNE AMA 15 NNW MAF 40 SW P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP 30 W ALM 20 NW 4CR 15 SE TAD 20 SW GLD 20 SSW AKO 30 E FCL 45 NNE LAR 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW OWY 35 E BNO 45 ENE S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 25 W BIS 35 N HON 30 NW RWF 20 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO NEB AND NWWD TO MT... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO IA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH A 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A 30 KT SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD LAKE MI WILL MAINTAIN WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NWRN WI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS APPARENT DEVELOPING BOW ECHO SUGGESTS THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ENEWD ACROSS WI AND THE NRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. FARTHER S ACROSS IA...WELL DEFINED MCS WITH SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NON-SEVERE DUE TO WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY GIVEN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... SLY LLJ ACROSS KS NOSING INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO MCS/S ACROSS NEB INTO WRN IA AND POTENTIALLY SRN SD. THESE MCS/S MAY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SWRN SD/NWRN NEB BORDER AND THE OTHER MOVING NNEWD OVER NRN KS. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...WITH THE FORECAST FOR PERSISTENT EWD MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/N OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE OVERNIGHT MCS/S. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRACKS NEWD FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING SELY LLJ FROM ERN-NORTH CENTRAL MT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... MAINTAINING AT LEAST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MT. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ERN MT/SWRN ND OVERNIGHT...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 05:55:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 00:55:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506280607.j5S67BSx001415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280604 SWODY1 SPC AC 280602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE BIS 50 NNE ABR 25 NNE ATY FSD 20 E YKN 25 SSW VTN 35 WNW VTN 40 SSW REJ 40 NW REJ 35 SSW DIK 55 ESE BIS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 55 ESE FAR 40 WNW IWD 25 SSE MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... 10 E OSC MKG 30 E RFD 20 S MMO 20 NE SPI 15 ESE UIN 20 W IRK 25 NNE STJ 25 NE BIE GRI 20 WNW BBW 15 SSW CDR 45 NE DGW 10 NNW SHR 25 N BIL 30 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 35 WNW BPT 15 SE SHV 35 N TXK 50 ENE CNU 20 SW RSL 45 W GCK 45 ESE TCC 20 N CNM 65 SE ELP ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN 30 SSE BLH 10 SSW TRM 30 NE EDW 40 SSW BIH 70 NNW BIH 35 ESE NFL 30 SSE BAM 25 W OWY 45 NNW BOI 55 WSW MSO 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 NNW EPM 30 WSW AUG 15 SSW LCI 15 W ORH 40 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SD...FAR SRN ND AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL TRACK EWD TODAY REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AFTER 29/00Z. BAND OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE BASE OF THE NWRN UPPER TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SERN CANADA. A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND MCV/S WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN CA PER WV IMAGERY... WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. IN THE EAST...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE PRIMARY WLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTEND FROM NRN LOWER MI TO CENTRAL IA BY 29/00Z. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM NEB TO MT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ERN WY/ WRN SD. ...NRN PLAINS TO WRN IA/SRN MN... SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SD. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM ERN MT SEWD TO CENTRAL SD TO NERN NEB/WRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN SD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND MUCH OF MT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MOISTENING AIR MASS AND COMBINE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG/ FROM ERN MT TO SWRN MN/NWRN IA/NERN NEB. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MT...AND THEN SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SWRN ND AND SD TO NERN NEB/WRN IA. STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS TO 50 KT ATOP SSELY 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SD SUGGEST AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. 30-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WIND FIELDS FOR UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S MOVING ENEWD OVER THE DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH THESE MCS/S OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LLJ STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND NOSING INTO WRN/NRN IA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS ALSO MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA. ...NRN LOWER MI WWD TO WI/ERN MN... COLD FRONT AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM ONGOING MCS ACROSS WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-30 KT. THUS...MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE GREATEST THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ERN IA/NRN-CENTRAL IL... ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB INTO IA/NRN MO ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF THE LLJ. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS SERN IA/NRN MO WHERE SFC-6 KM SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ...OH VALLEY REGION... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -10 C AT 500 MB/ AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...UT TO CENTRAL ROCKIES... ALTHOUGH THE CA UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD UT AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...50 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 12:31:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 07:31:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506281242.j5SCgnjc005440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281240 SWODY1 SPC AC 281238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DIK ABR ATY BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB VTN 4BQ MLS GDV DIK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E OSC MKG 35 NNW CGX PIA IRK FNB GRI BBW 15 WNW IML 30 S AKO DEN CYS 45 S GCC SHR BIL 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL FAR IWD MQT 10 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 35 WNW BPT 15 SE SHV 35 N TXK 40 W JLN 30 S RSL 35 NNW LBL 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN 25 S BLH 35 N TRM 40 NW DAG 10 W BIH 55 SSE NFL 25 SE BAM 25 W OWY 45 NNW BOI 55 WSW MSO 80 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...MT...AND NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL MT...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL EMERGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF MT/ND/SD/NEB TODAY. ...SERN MT/SWRN ND/MUCH OF SD... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ID. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS PARTS OF WY. THIS RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A RATHER STRONG CAP AND A SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS NEB...WHICH HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THIS AREA. POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING AND RETURN OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO ELIMINATE THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MT AND EASTERN WY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...QUICKLY BECOMING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING/. PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS BY LATE EVENING AND RACE ACROSS SD...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...WRN NEB INTO NERN CO... FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO/SOUTHEAST WY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES...PROMOTING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. AS STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING...GREATER INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AS WELL. ...MN/IA/WI/MI... MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO LOWER MI TODAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF IA/WI. HOWEVER...THIS AREA SHOULD DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON TO MODERATE LEVELS. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND OTHER WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. ...OH VALLEY... REMNANTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER IND THIS MORNING. SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND POCKET OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS NOT WARRANTED TODAY. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. DESPITE DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS...UVVS AHEAD OF VARIOUS UPPER SYSTEMS AND MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...COUPLED WITH LARGE DCAPE VALUES...WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 16:09:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 11:09:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506281620.j5SGKXsg017550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281543 SWODY1 SPC AC 281541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DIK ABR ATY BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB VTN 4BQ MLS GDV DIK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E OSC MKG 35 NNW CGX PIA IRK FNB GRI 20 W MCK 35 WNW GUP 15 NE GCN 20 N BCE 55 N PUC 30 NNW CYS 35 N DGW 35 SE BIL 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL FAR IWD MQT 10 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN 25 S BLH 35 N TRM 40 NW DAG 10 W BIH 50 SE NFL 15 WSW BAM 65 W OWY 50 S BKE 15 WNW ALW 50 NW 4OM ...CONT... 10 S MFE 10 NNW CRP 50 NNW BPT 10 NNE SHV 45 WSW JLN 20 W ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...MT AND NEB...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER NWRN U.S. PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN MOVING EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW OFF SRN CA MONDAY IS NOW OPENING UP AND ACCELERATING NEWD AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FEATURE FOR SUMMER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MAJOR S/WV TROUGH ACROSS PAC NW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. A 60-70KT 500MB WIND MAX WITH SRN S/WV TRACKS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS PHASE TONIGHT PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF ASCENT SPREADING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT FROM SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO TRAILS SWWD THRU UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS SRN MN THEN WWD ACROSS SD. PLAINS PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL AND SHIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN EASTERN WY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM NRN IL TO NRN MO AND KS WILL MIX OUT ALLOWING THE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CENTRAL U.S. TO SPREAD N AND NW INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ...SERN MT/SWRN ND AND MUCH OF SD... SCENARIO FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE STILL REASONABLE THIS AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. S/WV RIDGING MOVING INTO HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A CAP ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NWWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS AS FAR AS ERN MT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO E AND NE OF DEVELOPING WY LOW BY THE TIME STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND COMBINATION OF THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES...SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO FEED OFF 30-40KT LLJ AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE RISK IS LIKELY IN THIS PHASE OF THE SEVERE EPISODE. ...SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES... THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NEWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM ACROSS SRN UT/NWRN AZ. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY...A RATHER IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON GPS IPW AND MANIFESTED IN CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SUPPORTS A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UT/AZ. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 50-60KT COUPLED WITH THE STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM HIGH BASED STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. ...WRN NEB INTO NERN CO... STRONG HEATING TO LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY . SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO/SERN WY BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES...PROMOTING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...MN/IA/WI/MI... PRIMARY FRONT WILL LIE FROM SRN MN EWD ACROSS LWR MI TODAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF FRONT. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AIRMASS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VICINITY FRONT AND ANY REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN WARM SECTOR. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND 20 KT OR LESS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PRIMARILY PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. ...OH VALLEY... REMNANTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD INTO SWRN OH ATTM. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND POCKET OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS NOT WARRANTED. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 20:02:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 15:02:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506282013.j5SKDqLJ012955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282010 SWODY1 SPC AC 282008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ABR BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB ANW 40 WNW VTN 4BQ 55 WNW MLS 40 SSW GGW 20 SE OLF 10 ESE DIK 60 ENE ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 40 NW EAU 35 W ALO 35 NE OMA 10 N OLU 25 N IML 25 NNW LIC 35 N 4SL 30 W GUP 40 NW GCN 30 NW BCE 40 SSE SLC 20 W BPI 25 SSE LND 40 SW DGW 35 ENE CPR 50 W SHR 35 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MFE 10 NNW CRP 50 NNW BPT 10 NNE SHV 45 WSW JLN 20 W ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 15 W SVC 35 S PRC 35 NW IGM 30 NE TPH 45 ENE U31 30 WSW BAM 45 NNW WMC 50 S BKE 10 SE ALW 30 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO SRN ND...MUCH OF SD...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...ERN MT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NEWD INTO / DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND ERN MT ATTM...NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NW-SE FROM N CENTRAL MT ACROSS SWRN SD INTO NERN NEB. SELY FLOW ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN MT...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VEERING. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD...EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO WRN SD WITH TIME. STORMS SHOULD BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING -- POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...ERN HALF OF UT / NRN AZ / NM NEWD INTO SRN WY / CO / WRN KS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS UT / NRN AZ AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN AZ / SRN NV / SWRN UT. LIMITED / HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY / DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN NM / CO / SRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING. FURTHER SE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND INTO SERN CO / WRN KS...STORMS ARE FURTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX. NONETHELESS...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BENEATH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM LOWER MI / ERN IL EWD ACROSS OH / WV / PA TO THE DELMARVA REGION. STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE OCCURRING ALONG / AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER OH. WHILE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER / MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK AREAWIDE. THOUGH THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER / PULSE-TYPE STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 20:16:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 15:16:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506282027.j5SKRlkq022371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282023 SWODY1 SPC AC 282022 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ABR BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB ANW 40 WNW VTN 4BQ 55 WNW MLS 40 SSW GGW 20 SE OLF 10 ESE DIK 60 ENE ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 40 NW EAU 35 W ALO 35 NE OMA 10 N OLU 25 N IML 25 NNW LIC 35 N 4SL 30 W GUP 40 NW GCN 30 NW BCE 40 SSE SLC 20 W BPI 25 SSE LND 40 SW DGW 35 ENE CPR 50 W SHR 35 NNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MFE 10 NNW CRP 50 NNW BPT 10 NNE SHV 45 WSW JLN 20 W ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 15 W SVC 35 S PRC 35 NW IGM 30 NE TPH 45 ENE U31 30 WSW BAM 45 NNW WMC 50 S BKE 10 SE ALW 30 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO SRN ND...MUCH OF SD...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... CORRECTED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC TO REMOVE EXTRANEOUS SLIGHT RISK LABEL ...ERN MT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NEWD INTO / DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND ERN MT ATTM...NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NW-SE FROM N CENTRAL MT ACROSS SWRN SD INTO NERN NEB. SELY FLOW ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN MT...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VEERING. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD...EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO WRN SD WITH TIME. STORMS SHOULD BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING -- POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ...ERN HALF OF UT / NRN AZ / NM NEWD INTO SRN WY / CO / WRN KS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS UT / NRN AZ AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN AZ / SRN NV / SWRN UT. LIMITED / HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY / DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN NM / CO / SRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING. FURTHER SE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND INTO SERN CO / WRN KS...STORMS ARE FURTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX. NONETHELESS...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BENEATH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM LOWER MI / ERN IL EWD ACROSS OH / WV / PA TO THE DELMARVA REGION. STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE OCCURRING ALONG / AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER OH. WHILE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER / MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK AREAWIDE. THOUGH THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER / PULSE-TYPE STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 00:57:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 19:57:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506290108.j5T18hJg008992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290106 SWODY1 SPC AC 290104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW Y22 10 NE Y22 55 NE ABR 15 ESE ATY 30 ESE YKN 30 S YKN 45 NNE BUB 25 N MHN 25 E PHP 55 N PHP 40 SSW Y22 20 SW Y22. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 35 N FAR 50 ENE STC 30 WSW RST 35 W ALO 20 NE OMA 25 SSW OLU 10 E HSI 40 ESE MCK 30 NW GLD 35 SW COS 30 WSW ASE 50 WSW CAG 45 WSW RWL 25 SE CPR 35 N CDR 50 NW RAP 30 WNW SHR 50 N BIL 55 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 50 WSW MLU 30 E LIT 15 WSW HRO 35 W JLN 20 SW ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 45 SW DMN 40 NNE GUP 35 NNW U17 25 NNE ELY 25 NE OWY S80 85 WNW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN SD...SRN ND AND NRN-NERN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWWD INTO CO/SRN WY... ...MUCH OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY... WV IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SECOND TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN UT/CO. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THESE TWO MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM WY/CO EWD TOWARD MN BY LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN TWO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JETS /1.) ONE SELY LLJ UP TO 40 KT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD TO CENTRAL ND AND 2.) A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA LATE TONIGHT/. THESE INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND STRONG UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS THE UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO TWO OR MORE MCS/S...1. FROM ERN MT INTO ND AND 2. ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN SD AND NRN NEB...WITH THIS LATTER ONE POTENTIALLY REACHING SRN MN/NRN IA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG/ TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SD/NEB EWD TO SRN MN/IA...WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER N... INSTABILITY MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE...BUT INCREASING LLJ OVER THE DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVERNIGHT INTO ND. ...WY/CO... SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING SPREADS ENEWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. ..PETERS.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 06:06:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 01:06:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506290617.j5T6HaOG012346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290615 SWODY1 SPC AC 290614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE AXN 45 SSW HIB 45 W IWD 20 NNE RHI 15 WNW OSH 20 SSW MSN 35 SE DBQ 35 W CID 25 SSW FOD 30 SE SPW 25 NW MKT 35 NNE AXN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ANJ 20 W TVC 45 SE MKE 15 NNW CMI 25 NNW STL 50 SSE OJC 40 E ICT 45 WSW P28 20 NNE LBL 35 SW HLC 20 NNE EAR 50 NNE BUB 35 E PIR 55 ENE MBG 35 ESE DVL 60 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 45 SE LFK 35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 25 ESE END 20 N CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP ...CONT... 35 E DUG 45 NW TCS 30 NNE 4CR 50 SW CAO 45 SW PUB 10 NW GJT 40 E VEL 20 WNW RWL 25 N RIW 25 NE BZN 25 W HLN 20 ENE PUW 40 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MN INTO WRN/CENTRAL WI AND NERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SWWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO /POTENTIAL DERECHO/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER CO...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN ND INTO FAR NWRN MN...INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS PER 90-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS. A SECOND SURFACE LOW WITH THE CO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NRN NEB TO SRN MN BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CONNECTING THESE SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION MOVES SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...ERN DAKOTAS TO WRN GREAT LAKES AND SWWD TO CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING OF A 40-45 KT SLY LLJ THIS MORNING...AND THEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT ACROSS IA INTO MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH A 60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADING FROM NEB/SD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ND...WITH A SECOND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX POTENTIALLY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD. DESPITE SOME CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MN/WI TO AID IN WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN SD EWD TO CENTRAL/SRN MN AND MUCH OF WI COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A TRIPLE POINT OVER SERN ND/NERN SD AND ESEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TO CENTRAL KS REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS ACROSS ERN MN/NERN IA AND WI. GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /65-70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP 40-45 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS/ SPREADING ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY REACH ERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND LAKE MI/FAR WRN LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE HIGH LCLS...AND GENERALLY BE DIURNAL. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN MO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND SRN NEB TONIGHT. ...NEW ENGLAND TO OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG A COLD FRONT SPREADING SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SWWD OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /20-25 KT/ FROM NY TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS QUEBEC MAY RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 12:36:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 07:36:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506291247.j5TClGvj022904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291245 SWODY1 SPC AC 291243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FAR BJI 45 WSW DLH EAU VOK DBQ CID 45 SSW FOD SUX BKX 55 NE ABR FAR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CMX IMT MTW 10 NNE CGX 10 NNE PIA 45 SSE IRK OJC HUT 10 SE DDC 45 N DDC 55 N RSL LNK YKN ABR 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 45 NW TCS 30 NNE 4CR 50 SW CAO 45 SW PUB 10 NW GJT 40 E VEL 45 WNW RWL 30 SSW COD 10 SE BZN 15 SE 3DU 20 NNW S80 40 NW 4OM ...CONT... 10 SW GLS 45 SE LFK 35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 20 SE END 10 NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN ND/SD...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL KS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...MN...IA...AND WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...SOUTHWEST MN...AND WESTERN IA. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS MN. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...ALLOWING AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INTENSE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER. STORMS IN THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH PARAMETERS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG FRONT INTO NORTHWEST IA WHERE A PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP MAY INHIBIT INITIATION. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS MN DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS BY LATE EVENING AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IA AND WI. THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. ...EASTERN ND... MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. AIR MASS OVER EASTERN ND WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE THAN FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...POCKET OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER VORT MAX MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...ERN NEB/KS/MO... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. LACK OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHEAST STATES... MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NY TODAY. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS REGION...AND EVEN INTO PARTS OF PA AND NORTHERN VA. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 16:49:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 11:49:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506291700.j5TH0Dgv028140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291647 SWODY1 SPC AC 291645 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW AXN 30 SSE BRD 65 NW EAU 35 NNW VOK 15 E LNR DBQ CID 40 SSW FOD 25 N SUX BKX 55 NNE ATY 15 NNW AXN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CMX IMT MTW 10 N CGX IND 40 SSW HUF 30 SE BRL ICT 15 WSW DDC 40 NE GCK 55 N RSL 10 NE LNK 40 E MBG 20 NE JMS 70 NE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW RUT 20 N LCI 10 NE PSM 15 SE BOS 20 NNE EWB BDR 10 NW POU ALB 25 NW RUT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 45 SE LFK 35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 20 SE END 10 NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP ...CONT... 35 E DUG 55 NW TCS 50 NNE 4CR 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 45 NE GJT 50 NW CAG 15 SSE RIW 30 W COD 25 ENE BTM 10 NW S80 10 WSW PUW 30 W GEG 15 NNW EAT 20 N OLM 25 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN SD...NRN IA...CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SWD INTO KS AND NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND... PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN SD...IS FORECAST TO ALSO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NNEWD INTO EXTREME SERN MANITOBA BY 30/12Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO SWRN KS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN SD...SRN/CENTRAL MN...NRN IA AND WRN WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION WERE MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NEWD...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS ND AND NRN MN. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN MN/NWRN IA. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AND MOVE EWD TO THE MN/SD BORDER AROUND 21Z. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR LINE AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN/NRN IA AND INTO WI OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SD LOW SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI. ALTHOUGH REMNANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE AREA...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME HEATING AND AIDED IN THE AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODELS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN. GIVEN A WEAKER CAP...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM EAST CENTRAL MN SEWD INTO WRN WI. LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ...ERN NEB/KS/NWRN MO... MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SPREADS INTO KS. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LIFT ACROSS KS. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. THREAT WILL PERSIST MAINLY UNTIL MID EVENING AS UPDRAFTS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ELEVATED. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NY. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE MARGINALLY WEAK SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..IMY/TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 19:50:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 14:50:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506292001.j5TK1npP019023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291959 SWODY1 SPC AC 291957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW AXN 20 S BRD 35 WSW CWA 25 NW MSN 25 ESE DBQ 30 SE FOD 30 NNE SUX FSD ATY 55 N ATY 50 NW AXN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 ENE CMX 50 NE ESC 40 ENE MKE 15 S DAY 35 NNE SDF 15 NNE BMI 10 W ICT 10 S DDC 35 NNE GCK 55 N RSL 10 NE LNK 40 E MBG 20 NE JMS 70 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 25 SW NIR 35 N PSX 15 NNE POE 25 SE PBF 20 NNE POF 20 NNW TBN 25 WNW BVO 10 NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP ...CONT... 35 E DUG 55 NW TCS 50 NNE 4CR 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 45 NE GJT 50 NW CAG 15 SSE RIW 30 W COD 20 SE BTM 10 NW S80 10 WSW PUW 30 W GEG 15 NNW EAT 20 N OLM 25 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN SD...THE SRN HALF OF MN...WRN WI...AND NRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SWD INTO IN / IL / NRN MO / KS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWD TO KS / IN... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NERN SD ATTM INVOF SURFACE LOW / COLD FRONT. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT / ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD INTO MN / WRN WI / IA...ALONG AND JUST N OF 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES. THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHICH NOW LIES FROM W CENTRAL MN SEWD ACROSS WRN WI. OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME AS FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT INCREASES. THIS WOULD ALLOW AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FURTHER S INTO KS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT...AND THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND THUS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ALONG SEWD EXTENSION OF WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL / IN. THOUGH SHEAR WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH SEWD EXTENT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID EVENING. ...THE NORTHEAST... LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF ERN NY / SRN VT / SRN NY / WRN MA...AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 01:04:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 20:04:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506300115.j5U1FwG4018207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300113 SWODY1 SPC AC 300110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW CMX 20 WSW CMX 10 WSW IMT 10 NNE MTW 30 E MKE 40 SSW SBN 20 SSW LAF 20 SSW CMI 20 NNW SPI 20 NNE UIN 25 ENE IRK 25 S P35 25 W OJC 35 ENE HUT 10 S DDC 15 NNW GCK 35 E HLC 25 SSE HSI 40 ENE OLU SUX 20 ESE FSD 20 ESE ATY 10 SE ABR 40 SSE JMS 50 SW GFK 65 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BPT 35 NNW POE 25 N HEZ 50 NW MEI 40 NE CBM 20 NNE MSL 15 SSW CKV MDH 55 SSW BLV 25 W VIH 55 SSW SZL 20 N PNC 30 W GAG 30 SSW EHA 15 NNE LAA 30 SSW LIC 15 ENE DEN 20 NNE FCL 40 SSE DGW 25 WNW DGW 25 S COD 30 N 27U 30 ENE EPH 40 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 NNE GGW 35 WSW GDV 35 NW REJ 50 S Y22 MBG 50 WNW JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 45 WNW ANJ 40 S PLN 25 SSE HTL DTW ...CONT... 15 ENE CLE 20 NW FKL 15 NE BFD 35 WNW ELM 35 NW SYR ...CONT... 50 NNW 3B1 20 NNE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DMN 25 NNW ALM 40 SE LVS 30 NE TCC 25 SE CVS 25 NW HOB 20 E GDP 55 SW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY...MIDWEST...AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...UPR MS VLY TO WRN GREAT LAKES... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ND SFC LOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND INTO SCNTRL CANADA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE SYSTEM BEGINS TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MASS TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT ACROSS CNTRL MN AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF OUTRUNNING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS RECOVERY AND STABLE ELY FLOW ORIGINATING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO MOSTLY HAIL AS STORMS SPREAD EAST ACROSS NERN MN AND NRN WI. FARTHER SOUTH...A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SRN MN. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE CELLS HAVE STRUGGLED TO PERSIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO A STRONG CAP...NEW ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA ATTM. AIR MASS AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...IA/KS/MO... A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS SWWD FROM WCNTRL IA ACROSS SERN NEB...AND INTO CNTRL KS. THIS CONVECTION INITIATED AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREAD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AND HOT AIR MASS OVER THESE AREAS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING ON THE SRN EDGE OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG INSTABILITY IN A MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVELY- INDUCED COLD POOL...FROM KS NEWD...COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PROCESS...AN MCS MAY SPREAD EAST INTO NWRN MO LATER TONIGHT WITH A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT CONTINUING. ..CARBIN.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 05:38:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 00:38:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506300550.j5U5o9RN030618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300547 SWODY1 SPC AC 300546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI 10 NNE ZZV 45 NW HTS 35 S LEX 10 SE CKV 15 NW MKL 60 NNW LIT 20 W FSM 20 SSW OKC 15 NNW LTS 65 ENE AMA 40 N AMA 10 N DHT 40 E RTN 15 N TAD COS 15 E DEN 35 WSW AKO 35 ESE AKO 45 SSW GLD 40 NNE GCK 25 W RSL 20 SSE CNK 10 WSW STJ 30 NE IRK 30 ENE BRL 35 NE MLI 10 ENE JVL 10 S OSH 45 ENE AUW 45 SSW IWD 45 WNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 45 SSE SDY 25 SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 N BPI 25 NW IDA 20 SW 27U 60 SSE S06 25 S GEG 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 20 SE ELP 20 NW CNM 45 ENE ROW 55 SW TCC 30 SSE LVS 50 NNW LVS 20 ENE ALS 20 SSW LAR 60 NE DGW 30 SE RAP 35 W VTN 45 W EAR 30 WNW BIE 20 NNE CID 35 NNW MSN 15 SE CWA 70 S DLH 40 NW HIB 20 NE RRT ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 25 W POE 20 NNW SHV 20 ESE PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE PLAINS AND ERN CO... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THIS PERIOD. SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM MN/IA SWWD TO KS/CO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES GENERALLY EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WI...MI...IND...AND IL. WHILE STRONGER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AREAS...THE WEAKER/TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SINK SWD FROM KS/MO INTO OK/AR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE...SFC AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE WRN U.S. WHILE A WEAK UPR TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE STRONGER GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. ...GREAT LAKES TO LWR OH VLY... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF UPR AND LWR MI ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONE. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING THAT AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MI AND PARTS OF NRN LWR MI. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...FROM SRN LWR MI INTO NRN IND/IL. ANOTHER AXIS OF WEAKER DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO INDICATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN UPR MI ACROSS WI BY AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ALONG OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WI AS AND UPR MI. AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...COMBINATION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN CLUSTERS AND LINES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM CNTRL IL...EWD ACROSS IND AND SRN LWR MI...AND INTO SWRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE FRONT OVER WI/UPR MI. ...PLAINS/OZARKS... TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IDENTIFIED BY SFC WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS KS/MO. WHILE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERY STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL ALL LEAD TO TSTM FORMATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KT ALIGNED WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WOULD SUGGEST CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO A SLOW MOVING MCS ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK AND SWRN MO THROUGH LATE EVENING. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...CO/HIGH PLAINS... MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING AND PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TOPPED BY 25-40KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN/SERN CO AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 12:31:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 07:31:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506301242.j5UCge80007543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301240 SWODY1 SPC AC 301238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ERI PIT 25 S UNI LEX BWG DYR FSM FSI AMA DHT TAD COS DEN AKO 45 SSW GLD 40 NNE GCK RSL STJ BRL CGX 45 W MBS 15 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 15 S SDY 25 SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 N BPI 25 NW IDA 20 SW 27U 60 SSE S06 25 S GEG 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 10 SE ELP 40 WNW CNM 45 ENE ROW 55 SW TCC 30 SSE LVS 50 NNW LVS 10 SW ALS 45 SW LAR 60 NE DGW 30 SE RAP 35 W VTN 45 W EAR 30 WSW LNK 20 NNE CID 20 SE LSE 15 W EAU 35 WNW HIB 10 W INL ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 25 W POE 20 NNW SHV 20 ESE PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...LOWER MI/OH/IND THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER MN...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM SD/NEB INTO WI/MI. PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD/ SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK IN THIS REGION...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...LOWER MI/OH/IND/IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AIR MASS BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN IND AND CENTRAL IL. CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MO/KS/OK... SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT REMAINS MOIST...AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT. WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS. HIGH LCL/S AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF OK AND WESTERN MO. ...EASTERN CO... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN CO. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/GUYER.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 15:57:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 10:57:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506301608.j5UG8p8P010836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301557 SWODY1 SPC AC 301555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W JHW 15 WNW MGW 25 S UNI LEX BWG DYR FSM FSI AMA DHT TAD COS DEN AKO 45 SSW GLD 40 NNE GCK RSL STJ BRL CGX 45 W MBS 15 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 15 S SDY 25 SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 NNW RIW 30 NNW RIW 40 SE JAC 10 NNW IDA 45 ENE SUN 35 WSW SUN 15 NNW BOI 10 E LWS 30 S GEG 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 75 E DUG 45 NNW SVC 40 SSE ABQ 20 NNW LVS 10 SW ALS 45 SW LAR 50 ENE DGW 30 NE CDR 35 W VTN 45 W EAR 10 WSW LNK 25 W DBQ 20 W MSN 35 E AUW 50 E IWD 70 NNW CMX ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 10 S LFK 20 WNW GGG 40 SW PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG SUMMERTIME LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE TRAILS FROM THE ONTARIO SURFACE LOW S AND THEN SWWD ACROSS LS TO CENTRAL IA AND BACK TO ERN CO. OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED SURFACE BOUNDARIES WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT ACTIVE MCS SERN MI/NWRN OH TRAILS A BOUNDARY WSWWD INTO CENTRAL IL WITH ANOTHER E/W BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MO/KS. ...LOWER MI/OH/IND/IL... STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE MOIST AIR MASS STILL AVAILABLE IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS ACTIVITY. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WITH THE INCREASING AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SHEAR WILL RANGE DOWNWARD FROM 30-40KT OVER GREAT LAKES TO AROUND 20KT OH VALLEY. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS ALONG WITH HAIL. THE CURRENT MCS LIKELY TO CONTINUE E/SEWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...THE WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES DOWN STREAM AIR MASS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS WWD TO ERN CO... MOIST AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS MUCH OF AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO FORM IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN CO. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY HIGH BASES AND LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH ONLY A SMALL RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES. ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE SEWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINING A RISK OF SEVERE AFTER DARK. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 19:52:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 14:52:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200506302003.j5UK3Hno000635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302000 SWODY1 SPC AC 301959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W JHW LBE 15 NE EKN SSU 15 SW BKW 40 SSE JKL BWG HOP 60 ENE LIT HOT OKC 35 S AMA 35 ESE LVS 40 ESE ALS 4FC DEN 10 W LHX EHA GCK 20 NW SLN 15 WNW TOP MKC VIH BLV DEC 20 SSW MMO MKE MBL 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 45 SE OSC 30 ENE FNT JXN FWA MIE 40 WSW DAY 35 SE DAY CMH 20 N MFD 10 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP NIR 45 N BPT ESF MLU TXK 40 SW PRX 70 N ABI 10 W BGS 35 ESE INK 45 E MRF 85 SSW P07 ...CONT... ART UCA 30 NE BGM 35 NNE MSV 10 WSW ALB 10 W BTV 30 NE PBG ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW HVR BIL 81V LBF 10 ESE LNK 45 ESE SUX MCW LSE 15 S IMT 135 NE CMX ...CONT... 60 SW DMN 55 W ONM SAF 25 SW ALS 4BL 15 NE BCE 20 ESE MLF OGD PIH 10 SW BOI 30 NNW 4LW 15 NW MFR 25 S SLE 65 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.... ...PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES**... CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND ITS NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY...TOWARD HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OF CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL TAG ALONG WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM...PROGRESSING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS REGION. SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS REGION...WHILE CONVECTION PERSISTS/INCREASES FURTHER IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY WHICH NOW CURVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE IT INTERSECTS PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE HAS WEAKENED/ BECOME LESS APPARENT FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STILL BECOME FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST LIFT...AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BELOW MODERATE WESTERLIES IS MORE PRONOUNCED...AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THIS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.