From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 01:01:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 20:01:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507010112.j611CuWm029778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010110 SWODY1 SPC AC 010108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ERI 35 NNE PKB 25 WSW HTS 20 SW BNA 30 SW DYR 55 NNW LIT 10 SSE MKO 30 ENE OKC 45 E CSM 25 W CSM 35 NE AMA 25 S DHT 15 W CAO 15 E TAD 20 N TAD 10 ESE COS 25 W LIC 30 ENE LIC 50 E LIC 45 NNE LAA 55 W GCK 25 WSW GCK 25 SSE GCK 15 SSE DDC 50 NNW P28 30 NNW HUT 15 S MHK 25 WNW TOP FLV 45 SSW IRK 40 NE COU 10 NNE STL 10 W MTO 30 NW MIE 25 SW JXN 15 E LAN 20 NNE FNT 65 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE 7R4 10 WSW LFT 30 S HEZ 25 WSW LUL 40 NW CEW 20 W MAI 15 ESE MGR 15 S AYS 25 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CRE 20 SE CAE 15 N MCN 15 SSE TCL 35 N MEI 35 S GLH 25 ENE TXK 10 NE ADM 35 WNW SPS 35 S CDS 50 SSE LBB 35 SW FST 65 S MRF ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 WSW GDP 45 NNW GDP 10 NNW ROW 50 WSW CVS 50 SW TCC 40 NW TCC 25 SSE RTN 10 WNW RTN 25 NW ALS 30 E GUC 30 WNW 4FC 40 SW LAR 40 SSE DGW 25 N BFF 50 WSW MHN 10 E IML 40 SW MCK 20 SSE HLC 20 ENE CNK 25 SW DSM 25 W CID 20 SW LNR 45 WSW OSH 25 NNW GRB 20 E IMT 15 NE MQT ...CONT... 45 NNW BML 25 SSE EEN POU 30 WNW ILG 25 N RIC 55 SSW RIC 30 ENE RWI 10 WNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GGW 50 NE LWT 10 S LWT 40 NNW COD 25 NNE JAC 30 NW IDA 35 N SUN 55 WSW 27U 25 SE S80 20 E LWS 35 WNW PUW 20 S 4OM 55 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...MIDWEST/OH VLY... A BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS SITUATED ALONG PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT...AND IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS...FROM SRN IL NEWD ACROSS SRN IND AND INTO WRN OH AND EXTREME SERN MI. DESPITE A LATE START DUE TO DELAYED AIR MASS RECOVERY AFTER EARLIER MCS...NOW DECAYING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MID/UPR OH RIVER VLY WAS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 30KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW. LINES AND STORM CLUSTERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HAIL AND HIGH WIND EVENTS INTO LATE EVENING. ...KS/MO INTO OK/AR... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL/SRN MO. THIS CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MESOSCALE COLD POOL...AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SITUATED FROM SRN IA...TO THE OK/TX PNHDLS. LARGE SCALE UPR SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE KS/MO AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPR LEVEL WIND MAX AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN MCS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD POOL WILL ALSO LEND SUPPORT FOR INTENSE STORMS WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM DISCRETE CELLS/UPDRAFTS TRACKING ALONG OR ACROSS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN KS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SEE MCD NUMBER 1563 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RUC MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT ERN KS MCS WILL TRACK INTO WRN/SWRN MO AND THE OZARKS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS...NOW ACROSS SCNTRL MO...SHOULD SPREAD GENERALLY EWD TO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER INTO WRN TN/KY LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN KS INTO NRN OK LATER TONIGHT. CAP TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND SWD/SWWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN CO/NM INTO TX/OK PNHDLS... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN CO PROMPTED ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER AND THIS CONVECTION WAS NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE ERN PLAINS. OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER ERN NM AND WAS NOW MOVING EAST INTO THE TX PNHDL AND SOUTH PLAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM THE NRN TX PNHDL NWWD INTO SERN CO APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM BUT LESS SO BY LATEST RUC. WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY...RUC SCENARIO OF LIMITED NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE PROBABLE. HOWEVER...ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS INTENSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..CARBIN.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 05:18:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 00:18:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507010529.j615TlEm003422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010527 SWODY1 SPC AC 010525 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK NEL 40 NW HSE 20 NW EWN 40 W AGS 25 WNW DHN 20 S MOB 20 WSW MSY 50 SSW TYR 25 NNW BWD 65 NE BGS 35 NW TCC 20 NNW TAD 20 NE AKO 55 ENE SNY 60 NNW MHN 40 NE VTN 30 ESE OLU 25 SW BIE 20 ENE SLN 25 NNE P28 10 NW END 35 SW TUL 20 SSW LIT 45 NE UOX 25 ESE BNA 25 WSW JKL 45 WNW EKN 30 NW AOO 25 W SYR 25 NNE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW GLS 35 E AUS 15 SSE SJT 60 NNE P07 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 80 SSW GDP 15 SSW CNM 45 SW 4CR 35 WSW ABQ 40 SE FMN 4BL 35 NNW 4HV 40 SE MLD 55 N BOI 10 NNW LWS 55 ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 N ELO 10 NW STC 50 W DSM 15 ENE MKC 15 ESE TBN 15 ESE MDH 40 S BMG 10 WNW DAY 15 WNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST....LWR MS VLY...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TOWARD A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...TO THE TN/LWR MS VLYS...AND THEN WNWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE...A BELT OF MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE MID/LWR MS VLY...ATOP THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL ZONE. RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NRN MEXICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS S FL. ...NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST... HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN BANDS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT FROM UPSTATE NY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AND SHEAR ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NRN AREAS...FROM NRN PA NWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST. FLOW/SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAKER FROM DELMARVA AREA SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WITHIN LEE-TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WHEN DEEP CONVECTION SPREADS EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN NC THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH LIFT ALONG THIS OUTFLOW GENERATING ADDITIONAL STORMS IN MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ...SRN PLAINS/MS VLY NWWD TO HIGH PLAINS... AN MCS OR TWO MAY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR EARLY TODAY. CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS RESULTING FROM THIS EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RED RIVER VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY. LACK OF STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE OFFSET BY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...FROM NWRN TX TO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS BENEATH MODEST AND DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LVL FLOW. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVELING WITHIN THE WNWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL AID ASCENT ACROSS RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE TSTM INITIATION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ...ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS... LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE LIMITED BUT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK IMPULSE TRANSITIONING THROUGH BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION WITHIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/LEE TROUGH. HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS WITH ISOLATED WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 12:52:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 07:52:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507011304.j61D40gZ028569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011301 SWODY1 SPC AC 011259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK NEL 40 NW HSE 20 NW EWN 40 W AGS 25 WNW DHN 20 S MOB 20 WSW MSY 60 SSW TYR 35 SSW BWD 20 N BGS 35 NW TCC 20 NNW TAD 20 NE AKO 25 NE SNY 30 NNE CDR PHP 10 N BUB 35 E HSI 20 ENE SLN 25 NNE P28 10 NW END 30 SW TUL 35 ENE PBF 40 N TUP 40 WSW HOP 45 SSW SDF 15 NNE TYS 30 E HSS 25 S CRW 45 SSE LBE 25 W SYR 25 NNE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 20 N GDP 40 N ALM 35 WSW ABQ 40 SE FMN 4BL 35 NNW 4HV 40 SE MLD 55 N BOI 10 NNW LWS 55 ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 N ELO 10 NW STC 50 W DSM 15 ENE MKC 15 ESE TBN 15 ESE MDH 40 SSE BMG DAY 15 WNW CLE ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 35 SE AUS 30 WNW JCT 60 NE P07 30 SSE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NY/NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE TN VLY TO THE SRN PLNS AND CNTRL HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM OFF THE SRN CA CST TO TX WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONTINUES FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE NRN PLNS INTO THE GRT LKS/OH VLY AND NEW ENG. UPPER LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO SHOULD MOVE E INTO CNTRL QUEBEC BY EARLY SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM CLOSED SYSTEM WEAKENS SOMEWHAT UPON REACHING SRN BC/WA. FARTHER S...SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAKER DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING WRN WY/UT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WITHDRAW N INTO CANADA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL...HOWEVER... RECEIVE A BOOST EWD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENG LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES E ACROSS MI. IN THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY...MAIN SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL UPLIFT LIKELY WILL BE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM W TN/NW MS INTO AR/SRN MO AND THE TX PANHANDLE REGION. ...SRN PLNS/CNTRL HI PLNS... SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF WRN NEB...WRN KS...OK AND NRN/WRN TX THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY BOTH DIURNAL HEATING...AND BY APPROACH OF WY/UT DISTURBANCE. SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN OK INTO NW TX THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORMIDABLE CAP WILL PROBABLY KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL FIND STORMS FORMING IN UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN CO...AND ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WRN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MERGE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS...WITH A PREDOMINANT MOTION TOWARD THE SE. AMPLE DEEP WNWLY SHEAR /40+ KT/ AND INSTABILITY /ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J PER KG...BOTH SURFACE- BASED AND ELEVATED/ WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN EXPECTED MULTIPLE AREAS OF STORM INITIATION...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND COMPLEX COMBINATION OF BOTH ELEVATED AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE...EXPECT THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR EARLY IN STORM LIFE CYCLES. A SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY..ESPECIALLY IN TX. ...NY/NEW ENG INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION... MODEST INSTABILITY /ML CAPE OF 1000- 1500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF NY/PA COLD FRONT...AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE MD/VA/NC PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLN TODAY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING OFFSHORE DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION/INFLOW FROM NJ INTO SRN NEW ENG. COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG...RANGING FROM AROUND 25 KTS IN MD/VA TO NEAR 40 KTS IN NRN NY...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND...MAINLY IN NY...A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW TO WSWLY FLOW COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THE UPR HUDSON VLY...WHERE NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MORE SLY COMPONENT. FARTHER S...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT GREATER CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ...TN VLY TO S ATLANTIC CST... REMNANT OF OVERNIGHT KS/MO/AR MCS WILL CONTINUE SE INTO PARTS OF TN/MS/AL LATER TODAY...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR. MORNING RAOB/SURFACE DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A POCKET OF ENHANCED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF KY/MIDDLE TN/MS AND AL. THIS MARKS AN APPARENT REGION THAT HAS NOT EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN RECENT DAYS. RESULTANT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WITH WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL...DESPITE WEAKNESS OF DEEP SHEAR. OTHER STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE ERN CAROLINAS...WHERE A BAND OF SOMEWHAT FASTER MID LVL WLY FLOW WILL EXIST. ...NRN HI PLNS... DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KTS OVER ERN/SRN MT AND WRN ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS NRN PART OF WY/UT DISTURBANCE GRAZES REGION. WHILE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION. IF CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENTLY STRENGTHENS...SETUP COULD YIELD SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS AND A THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 16:22:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 11:22:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507011633.j61GXuI2029919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011625 SWODY1 SPC AC 011624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE SJT 40 SSW LBB 35 NNW TCC 15 E COS 45 NW AKO 45 WSW MHN 40 NW BBW 40 NE MCK 40 SSW HLC 20 W END 40 ESE OKC 25 SW DUA 20 SE SEP 40 NNE SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 50 N REJ 30 S 4BQ 45 NNW COD 35 N LVM 50 NNW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 15 E FLO 35 S CLT 40 NW HKY 15 NNW BKW 45 SSE LBE 40 WSW ELM 40 NNE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 35 NW GDP 10 NNW 4CR 40 E DRO 15 W GJT 30 SSW EVW 20 SSW PIH 35 WNW SUN 35 NNW BOI 30 NE BKE 20 SSW LWS 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 45 ESE AUS 55 E JCT 55 SW SJT 20 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 20 WSW EEN 30 NNW EWR 15 NW DOV 15 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15 WNW FSD 30 ENE OLU 40 SW FNB 20 W JLN 25 ESE UNO 25 ESE MDH 40 SE BMG 15 ESE DAY 20 W CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT... ...NORTHEAST U.S./LEE OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NC-VA PIEDMONT... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO CENTRAL KY AT 15Z/ WILL CONTINUE EWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL DEFINED ACROSS ERN NY SSWWD INTO THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LEE TROUGH... WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM IAD AND ALB INDICATE LAPSE RATES REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES EVIDENT AT BUF THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL STILL BOOST SBCAPES AOA 200O J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT SMALL LINES WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING... ESPECIALLY INTO UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS/STABLE ONSHORE FLOW PREVALENT ATTM OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...SLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SWD INTO VA/NC...DESPITE THE WEAKER WLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ATTAIN MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW INFLUX OF 50/LOWER 60F DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND LIKELY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BE VERY SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO BOWING MCS/S OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FROM E-CENTRAL/SERN CO SEWD ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THERE. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. ...ERN MT INTO WRN ND... LEE TROUGH/SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME WELL DEFINED FROM NWRN ND/NERN MT SSWWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM 45-55F/ DESPITE DEEP MIXING AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S. THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES WILL NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE / 750-1200 J/KG /... EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...ERN PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF SRN KS/OK/AR THIS MORNING...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY THE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSEWD AWAY FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...TN VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... REFERENCE SWOMCD 1573. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...AS SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. ADDITIONALLY... MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER EVIDENT ON JAN AND BMX SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MAY LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE IN PLACE AT BNA /850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 7C/KM/...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND AN ISOLATED/BRIEF-LIVED SEVERE THREAT ALONG NRN PORTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...AND FAR NWRN GA. SCATTERED PULSE TYPE STORMS...OR SMALL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...APPEAR PROBABLE WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH AFTERNOON. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 20:04:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 15:04:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507012015.j61KF9v0001466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012010 SWODY1 SPC AC 012009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 50 N REJ 30 S 4BQ 45 NNW COD 35 N LVM 50 NNW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE SJT 50 N HOB 35 NNW TCC 15 E COS 45 NW AKO 45 WSW MHN 40 NW BBW 40 NE MCK 40 WSW RSL 25 WNW PNC 40 ESE OKC 25 SW DUA 20 SE SEP 40 NNE SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 15 E FLO 35 S CLT 40 NW HKY 15 NNW BKW 45 SSE LBE 40 WSW ELM 40 NNE ART ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 20 WSW EEN 30 NNW EWR 15 NW DOV 15 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HUL AUG 25 SW PWM 20 NE BID ...CONT... 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15 WNW FSD 30 ENE OLU 40 SW FNB 20 W JLN 25 ESE UNO 15 NE PAH 40 NNW LEX 25 SE CAK 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 45 ESE AUS 55 E JCT 55 SW SJT 20 S P07 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 35 NW GDP 10 NNW 4CR 40 E DRO 15 W GJT 30 SSW EVW 20 SSW PIH 35 WNW SUN 35 NNW BOI 30 NE BKE 20 SSW LWS 70 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...PA AND VT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MT.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SERN ONTARIO AND NERN OH SWWD ACROSS SERN MO...THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK. A WARM FRONT THEN CONTINUES NWWD INTO E CENTRAL CO. ALSO...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES DRAPE FROM ERN TN INTO CENTRAL MS...NRN LA...NERN AND N CENTAL TX INTO SWRN OK. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN QUEBEC AND STRONG BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU. ...ERN NY AND NERN PA INTO VT... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED PVA WILL ADVANCE COLD FRONT ALONG INTO MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1500 TO 1800 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN UPSTATE NY WHERE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY. 18Z RAOB FROM ALY SHOWS MARGINAL LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POSSIBLY EFFECTED BY NEARBY CONVECTION...WITH VALUES NEAR 7C/KM. THUS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL CAN OCCUR THRU THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... MODELS CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FROM ERN CO INTO PARTS OF OK AND NRN TX. REMAN TS OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND OLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MCS DEVELOPING FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NERN CO AHEAD OF NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD EXTENDING FROM NWRN MO INTO NWRN TX BY 02/12Z. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DRIVEN SUBSIDENCE TO ENHANCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EARLY TONIGHT. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO GIVE A SUBTLE HINT OF THIS WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM BEHIND THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT... INCREASING BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NRN PLATEAU AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS VANCOUVER INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PLACES AREA IN DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF EXIT REGION OF 80-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8C/KM. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS S CENTRAL MT AND WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 00:50:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 19:50:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507020101.j6211XuG032197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020059 SWODY1 SPC AC 020057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE DDC 35 SSE DDC 30 NNE GAG 45 ESE GAG 40 E CSM 10 NNE FSI 35 WSW SPS 60 NNE ABI 45 NE ABI 10 SW SEP 40 W ACT 35 W TPL 50 SE BWD 30 SW BWD 15 NE SJT 30 NE FST 25 W INK 20 WSW HOB 40 SSE CVS TCC 30 NNW CAO LHX 40 E LIC 40 SSW IML 40 SSW MHN 30 NW MHN 10 NW VTN 35 NNE ANW 35 W OFK 30 ESE HSI 45 W CNK 45 ENE DDC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 40 WNW FAR 35 NNE MBG 25 SE REJ 30 SE 4BQ 65 SSE GDV 25 SE SDY 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 50 SSW CLL 60 ENE JCT 35 SSW SJT 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 SE ELP 35 SSW 4CR 45 ESE ABQ 25 ESE SAF 45 NE 4SL 15 SSE DRO 25 NNW DRO 20 S MTJ 30 E GJT 45 SSE VEL 25 WSW VEL 50 NNW VEL 40 ESE RKS 35 ESE RWL 25 NNE LAR 40 SSE DGW 45 NE DGW 30 SSW 81V 40 SSE SHR 25 SSW COD 15 ENE IDA 45 ESE SUN 30 N SUN 30 NW DLN GTF 15 SSW HVR 40 NE HVR ...CONT... 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15 ENE FSD 10 NW OMA 25 NNW TOP 30 SW TOP 30 S EMP 40 NNW BVO 20 S BVO 10 E MKO FSM 45 N LIT 10 NE JBR 25 SSW CGI 40 ENE PAH 35 W JKL 20 SE YNG 15 NE ROC ...CONT... 20 S HUL AUG 25 SW PWM 20 NE BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE HAS PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM INITIATION FROM THE TX PNHDL NWD TO CNTRL NEB. TO THE WEST OF THIS ZONE...SERIES OF CONVECTIVE SURGES/OUTFLOWS HAVE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO/NM...AS WELL AS WEST TX. ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH 35-40KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ABSENT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF LARGE SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN SUSTAINING TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT. CELL MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOWS MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS EVOLVING OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE PERSISTING NEAR THESE COMPLEXES. IN THE MEANTIME....TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...COULD ACCOMPANY DISCRETE CELLS TRACKING NEAR THE FRONT FROM NEB TO THE OK/TX PNHDLS...AS WELL AS NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED SE-NW ACROSS WEST TX. ...NRN PLAINS... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING THROUGH A BROAD UPR RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. WARM AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF ADVANCING LEE TROUGH WAS FUELING NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO ERN ND BEFORE DAYBREAK. ...NCNTRL GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST... EXTENSIVE LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG OUTFLOW/THERMAL TROUGH MERGER FROM ERN NC TO SRN GA/AL THIS EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING LINE WAS VERY UNSTABLE. WHILE DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SUBSIDE. ...NORTHEAST... COLD FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR AND FORCING COULD STILL SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS FROM ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS OVER PARTS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 04:40:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 23:40:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507020451.j624pAWY022992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020449 SWODY1 SPC AC 020448 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 35 SW DLH 15 NNE MKT 20 NE SPW 35 N SUX 30 E ANW 45 SE PHP 35 ENE RAP 15 ENE REJ 15 WNW DIK 40 WNW P24 40 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 15 N VCT 40 WNW NIR 30 N COT 50 WNW HDO 35 NNE DRT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 10 SE GDP 25 NE 4CR 45 SE ALS 40 N ALS 50 NW GJT 35 NE DPG 60 S BYI 40 NW SUN 40 WSW MSO 75 NE 63S ...CONT... 15 NE MQT 35 ESE CWA DBQ 25 SW IRK 35 NE JLN 25 WSW HRO 55 ENE LIT 40 SE BNA 25 SE JKL 25 E MGW 15 SE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NERN U.S...A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ENCOMPASS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NRN PLAINS...WILL CONTAIN AT LEAST ONE STRONGER LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WHICH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY AND WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM MT TO THE UPR MS VLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...SOUTH...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE DEPARTING THE NORTHEAST. WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND LEE TROUGHING...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO WITH GENERALLY WEAK WLY FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM CA...TO THE FOUR CORNERS...TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG WLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AXIS OF VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FIRST IN RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCNTRL MT. EVENTUALLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL ACT TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER WCNTRL DAKOTAS. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF ABOUT 20KT WILL BE TOPPED BY INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT TO PROVIDE STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN MN. THIS BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKED SFC FLOW NEAR LEE LOW/TROUGH...MAY ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TORNADIC STORMS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING ALSO SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD/ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CELL MERGERS...AND INCREASE IN MASS TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...MAY SUSTAIN AN MCS WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND CONTINUING EAST INTO WRN MN AND NWRN IA AFTER 03/00Z. ...SOUTHEAST... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FUEL INCREASING MULTICELL AND PULSE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS OF 20KT OR LESS WITHIN SLACK MID LEVEL TROUGH...OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...RANDOM BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS OCCURRING WITHIN INCREASINGLY HOT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. IF A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOMES EVIDENT IN LATER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AND A SLIGHT RISK...MIGHT BE INTRODUCED OVER A PORTION OF THE REGION. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY DRIFTING SSEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN TX/WRN OK WHERE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXIST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CAP IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A DEEP CONVECTIVE COLD POOL TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SCNTRL TX DURING THE DAY AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST NAM. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE THE AREA IN A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. FARTHER NORTH...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS CAP IS LOCALLY OVERCOME BY INTENSE HEATING FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. NW FLOW REGIME AND MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CAP. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 12:44:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 07:44:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507021255.j62CtIBJ014622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021253 SWODY1 SPC AC 021252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 35 SW DLH 15 NNE MKT 20 NE SPW 35 N SUX 30 E ANW 20 SSE VTN 20 ENE RAP 20 NW 4BQ 15 SSE GDV 40 WNW P24 40 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT 35 ESE CWA 30 E ALO 20 ESE P35 10 WSW JLN 30 NW FSM 15 NNE HOT 25 ESE JBR 15 ESE LOZ 30 NNW EKN 20 SE DOV ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 25 SSE DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 10 SE GDP 45 SE ALS 40 SSE GUC 30 W GJT 35 NE DPG 60 S BYI 40 NW SUN 40 WSW MSO 75 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL STATES THIS PERIOD...N OF ELONGATED RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST FROM OFF THE BAJA CST TO THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY. ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE ZONAL JET...NOW ENTERING NRN ID...MAY AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES E INTO WRN ND BY 12Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LWR 48...UPR LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN WEAK SHEAR AND/OR ARE NOT NOTEWORTHY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE IS DIFFUSE ATTM...BUT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD REACH A NW MN/ERN SD/NW NEB LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. TRUE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CANADA...ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT OF SORTS LIKELY WILL BECOME APPARENT OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY ENHANCES THERMAL GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS ID IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. WEAKLY DIFFLUENT... 40-50 KT W TO WNWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY FIRST DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE WRN DAKOTAS AND PERHAPS SRN MT. RELATIVELY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP STORMS HIGH-BASED AND PROMOTE CONSOLIDATION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE. POTENTIAL WILL...HOWEVER...ALSO EXIST FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS...INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND/OR NEAR WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS. LOCALLY ENHANCED SRH IN THESE AREAS COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LLJ WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ID IMPULSE AMPLIFIES/CONTINUES EWD. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE MCSS. THESE SYSTEMS COULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND INTO MUCH OF MN AND PERHAPS NW IA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. ...SERN U.S... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PERSIST INVOF LEE TROUGH AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH AFFECTED THE NERN U.S. ON FRIDAY. WEAKLY CAPPED/STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MULTICELL AND/OR PULSE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK...BUT BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD A FEW WET MICROBURSTS. CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER MS/AL...AND POSSIBLY INTERIOR PARTS OF SC. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ONGOING MCSS SHOULD CONTINUE SSE ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN/CNTRL TX... WHERE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW CELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. CINH ASSOCIATED WITH ERN EXTENTION OF UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN FORMIDABLE...AND SHEAR/CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THEY WERE FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...25+ KT NNW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SSE MOTION OF EXISTING COMPOSITE COLD POOL NOW COVERING MUCH OF NRN AND WRN TX. STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL COULD BRIEFLY POSE A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. FARTHER NW...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED INVOF LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO ERN CO FROM THE MOUNTAINS. MODEST /20-25 KT/ WNW MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LARGE CINH...RISK APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 16:30:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 11:30:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507021641.j62Gffar013063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021625 SWODY1 SPC AC 021623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW 25 SE SPW 35 W YKN 15 SW MCK 40 E AKO 15 WSW RAP 40 NE SHR 65 WSW MLS 15 E SDY 65 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 35 W HOU 10 SSW CLL 50 E ACT 15 SSE TYR 25 SSW SHV 25 NW HEZ 10 WNW MCB 10 WNW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 10 W SAF 50 E DRO 30 WSW PUC 30 S SLC 35 S MLD 10 NNW PIH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 30 NW CID 35 N JLN 30 NE MKO 25 W HOT 40 NE PBF 20 SSW MKL 45 ESE BWG 15 ESE LEX 30 NNW HTS 15 S PKB 10 N EKN 45 NNE CHO 30 ESE DOV ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 50 ENE COT 65 W COT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS AND PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX AND LA... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS... AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AND INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN CAP CONSIDERABLY LATER TODAY. MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR INITIATION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z SHOULD BE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/SERN MT NEARER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING SFC LOW...AND NEAR WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL ND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN NEB. LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY / MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG / OVER CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS TODAY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE IMPRESSIVE UNDER 40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR NEAR WRN EXTENT OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY IN THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE COMMON WITH STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OR CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S THIS EVENING AS UPPER SYSTEM NEARS AND STRONG SSWLY LLJ DEVELOPS...WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER E-CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...ALONG WELL DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD TOWARDS SERN LA/SRN MS. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...WNWLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR 20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THIS MAY SUSTAIN SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO A MCS AND TRACKS SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. WRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH MORE SWD INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER SERN TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THOUGH WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WW/S MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY ORGANIZES ALONG A COMMON COLD POOL. ...PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT STRONG HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ANY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN SMALL WITH DELTA-THETAE VALUES AOB 25C THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF 20 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A NEAR-SLGT CATEGORICAL RISK. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 19:54:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 14:54:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507022005.j62K59YS001024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022002 SWODY1 SPC AC 022000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW YKN BUB MCK 40 E AKO 60 SW RAP 40 NE SHR 65 WSW MLS SDY 60 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 N HOU 45 S LFK 40 WNW POE 45 N POE 30 ENE SHV MLU 20 ENE LUL 15 E BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 45 E ABQ 45 N ALS 50 SE EVW 25 NE MLD 35 ENE S80 40 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 SE CMX 30 S LSE LNK GAG CDS 70 NNW ABI 30 W SEP TPL 55 SW LFK 15 ENE LFK 35 S TXK GWO MSL 45 SW LOZ 15 NE 5I3 10 E SHD 20 NE WAL ...CONT... 30 E PSX 30 N VCT 20 ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS... AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN ND...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA REMAINS CAPPED. FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...AS NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND ERN MT. THESE BOUNDARIES AND THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN MT/WY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOCI FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM WRN NEB NEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO THE WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND TROPOSPHERIC WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH STORMS. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH BASES SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS STORMS SPREAD EWD AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN TONIGHT...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S...WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. EVOLVING COLD POOL AND MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO PROPEL AN MCS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS MN LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NWRN WI BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ...SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH LA AT MID AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY UNTIL MID EVENING. STRONGER INSTABILITY...LOCATED BETWEEN HOU AND LCH...MAY AID STORMS ON THE SRN END OF LINE TO PROPAGATE SEWD. DESPITE THE WEAKER COLD POOL PUSH INTO THIS AREA...WET MICROBURSTS AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD INTO FAR SERN TX AND SWRN LA. ...ERN AL NEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS... AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ONCE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNINGS 12Z...AND AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP MOIST PROFILES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR IS WEAK...SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED. HOWEVER...PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WATER LOADING FOR BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. ..IMY.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 00:47:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 19:47:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507030058.j630weSp013049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030057 SWODY1 SPC AC 030055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW YKN VTN 35 ENE CDR 60 SW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 45 NNE 4BQ 15 ESE SDY 65 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 30 N VCT 20 ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 40 SE ROW 20 E CVS 15 SW CAO TAD 55 ESE GUC 25 NNE GJT 25 SSW PUC 55 ESE ELY 50 SW ELY 40 SW ENV 25 WSW OGD 10 NE RKS 30 NE RWL 20 NNE CPR WRL 25 S WEY 35 WSW MSO 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 SE CMX 30 S LSE LNK 20 SE P28 15 E CSM SPS 20 WNW FTW 45 WSW TYR 15 SW LFK 35 E LCH 20 NW HEZ 30 ESE JAN 30 WNW BHM 10 N TYS 30 NE TRI 10 E DAN 35 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED BAND OF 50-60 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TWD WRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN ND INTO NWRN WY WILL MOVE EWD REACHING AN ERN ND/CENTRAL SD/SERN WY LINE BY 03/12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN DAKOTAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT RAP/ABR/BIS EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM RESULTING IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER WRN DAKOTAS TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NRN BORDERS OF ND AND NWRN MN...WITH OTHER STRONG CELLS OVER CENTRAL SD...SWRN ND...AND EXTREME SERN MT/NERN WY/NWRN SD. OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT INITIALLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS MOVING AND MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING EXTREME WRN LAKE SUPR AND NWRN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... LEADING LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN LA AND SRN MS. CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS...AND 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE LA/MS REGION SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BECOMING TOO WEAK TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED MCS INTO THE NIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE 1-2 HOURS WITH A RESULTANT DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER WRN KS HAVE BEEN MOVING SEWD WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ABOVE A VEERING WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM THREAT NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STORM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 03Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ..WEISS.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 05:56:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 00:56:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507030607.j6367Stf025321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030605 SWODY1 SPC AC 030603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CWA 20 W DBQ 15 N MKC 20 SE MHK 40 NNE RSL 40 ESE SUX 20 W MSP 45 N EAU 30 SW CWA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MQT 15 W MKE 35 NNW STL 10 ENE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 WNW EHA 15 E GRI 30 SW OTG 50 E FAR 40 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BUF 30 E BFD 20 NW CXY 35 NE CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 SSE RIC 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35 ENE PLN 40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW UNO 20 S ADM 35 NNE BWD 30 NNW JCT DRT ...CONT... 75 SW P07 30 WNW FST 25 SSW HOB 35 ESE TCC 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 20 WSW 4HV 45 SSE EVW 20 SE DGW 20 SSE CDR VTN 35 ENE PIR 10 NE MBG 25 WNW GDV 85 NW GGW ...CONT... 25 SSE CRP 50 E SAT 25 NNW CLL 20 SSW GGG 10 N MKL 40 S MIE 40 ESE DTW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MN...WRN WI...IA...SERN NEB...NERN KS...AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...REACHING NRN MN AND NWRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH...MCV NEAR THE ARKLATEX MAY PERSIST AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD REACHING A MN/ERN NEB/SWRN KS LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/ERN IA/NW MO/OK PANHANDLE BY 04/12Z. A NORTH/SOUTH DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO WRN TX. OVER THE SOUTHEAST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL PLAINS... ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT COLD POOL MAY GENERATE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA THAT COULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL SPREAD EWD NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG FROM SRN MN SSWWD ACROSS IA/WRN MO/KS AND PARTS OF WRN TX. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MN...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS AS STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES LARGE SCALE ASCENT NEAR THE COLD FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS MN WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY ACROSS MN/WI AND IA REGION WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. FARTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF KS AND NRN MO THE SHEAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WEAKER /30-35 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS'S DURING THE EVENING MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE THROUGH 06-08Z. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... NAM AND NAMKF INDICATE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MODEST /25-30 KT/...STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. PRESENCE OF LARGE DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL WELL MIXED LAYER INDICATE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES... CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. WEAK EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE FROM LA INTO SC AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING DAY. AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH 10-20 KT WINDS AT 500 MB RESULTING IN LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 12:52:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 07:52:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507031303.j63D3WpY028754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031301 SWODY1 SPC AC 031259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N OTM 30 E STJ 20 WSW CNU END 35 ENE LBL 30 NNE GCK 25 NW LNK 30 SSW SPW 15 ENE MCW 25 N OTM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ANJ 30 NNE PIA 35 NNW COU 25 S JLN 25 SE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 15 NNW MCK 10 NE GRI 20 SW OTG 25 WNW STC 50 SW BJI 40 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 35 WSW FST 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 60 W 4HV 40 ESE SLC 20 SE DGW 30 SW VTN 25 W FSD 25 WNW AXN 35 S DVL SDY 85 NW GGW ...CONT... 35 ENE PLN 40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW UNO 10 ENE DUA 35 NNE BWD 30 NNW JCT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 60 S CLL 50 W LFK 20 SSW GGG 40 N TUP 40 S MIE 40 ESE DTW ...CONT... 15 NE ERI 30 E FKL 20 S AOO 35 NE CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 SSE RIC 15 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB...IA...KS AND NRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS NEWD TO THE UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE LOW AMPLITUDE WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE N CNTRL STATES THIS PERIOD AS ELONGATED RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES AND FL. FAIRLY POTENT NRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER SE SK/ND WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS PROGRESSES E/SE TO THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY AND THE SRN PLNS. FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS SHOW A POSITIVE TILT IMPULSE ATTM OVER SRN WY/ERN UT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE CNTRL PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... A BROAD AREA OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CNTRL NEB SWD AND EWD INTO KS/OK AND IA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING OF LLJ IN THE PAST 12-18 HRS...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING UPR SYSTEM IN ND...HAS ALLOWED FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED AREAS OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LOCALLY DIMINISH SOME OF THE STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...BY AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO MORE THAN 3500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF KS/NEB AND WRN IA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER ERN CO AS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ADVECTS POST FRONTAL MOISTURE INTO REGION. TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO BY MIDDAY AND SPREAD E INTO THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF WY/UT IMPULSE DESTABILIZE REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY EVOLVE FROM MORNING WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MOS VLY. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND UPLIFT WILL CREATE POTENT SETUP SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND...DURING EARLY STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE CLUSTERS WHICH...GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...MAY CONTAIN ONE OR MORE SUSTAINED BOWS WITH HIGH WIND. THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E/SE...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. FARTHER N...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY. WHILE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SK/ND DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED GIVEN ONGOING WEAKENING MCS AND ABSENCE OF RICH MOISTURE INFLOW. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...HOWEVER...TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH WIND AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...LWR MS VLY/SERN STATES... STLT LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER E TX/LA...INVOF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX WHICH MOVED INTO REGION LATE YESTERDAY. DIFFUSE EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PERSIST FROM LA INTO SC AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD. AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE...WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT /15-20 KTS AT 500 MB/ LIMIT DEEP SHEAR SHEAR. BUT SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 16:23:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 11:23:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507031634.j63GYRP2018048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031632 SWODY1 SPC AC 031630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CSM 50 E AMA 50 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 35 SW GLD 45 ESE GLD RSL HUT 40 N END 45 NNE CSM 30 W CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CMX 30 NW RFD 35 NNW COU 25 S JLN 25 SE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 15 NNW MCK 30 ENE OLU 15 NNW FRM 30 NE BRD 30 WNW BJI 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 60 W 4HV 40 ESE SLC 20 SE DGW 30 SW VTN 10 E MHE 20 NW RWF 30 NW STC 45 NW BRD 45 NW JMS 20 SSE SDY 50 NNW GGW ...CONT... 30 E PLN 40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW UNO 30 SSW MLC 35 NNE BWD 30 NNW JCT 10 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 45 SSW SDF DAY 35 NNW CMH 15 SSW CAK 10 SE PIT 15 E MRB 20 SSE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE RDU 45 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED POORLY BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO THIS POINT...REMAINS EXTENSIVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL COMPLICATE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO MN AND THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING SSEWD INTO SRN NEB AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS LARGE AREA OF 50-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WEAKER DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND 35-40 KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNMODIFIED...AND HAVE SHIFTED GREATEST SEVERE RISK/PROBABILITIES INTO THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TX-OK PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK/WRN KS... AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST THIS MORNING WITH MIXING RATIOS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FROM NWRN OK INTO FAR ERN CO/WRN KS /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S INTO NWRN OK AND LOWER 60S ACROSS WRN KS/. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...SOUTH OF ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER NWRN KS. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE IF STORMS HOLD-ON INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS...WHILE DRY LINE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED SSWWD FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME WEAKENING CAP NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NEAR SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE AND SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT PLAINS LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 45+ KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE NWD. THUS...SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUD BASES AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT TRANSITION INTO BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND SPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WINDS...ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK. FARTHER S ALONG DRY LINE OVER WRN TX...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. THOUGH...SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER DARK GIVEN LACK OF FOCUS WITH RETREATING DRY LINE. ...NERN KS/ERN NEB/IA/MN ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION EFFECTS...FEEL MDT RISK NO LONGER WARRANTED INTO IA/ERN NEB/NERN KS. HOWEVER WITH COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST AND DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL KEEP BROAD SLGT RISK AREA ACROSS THE REGION. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN WI THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PERSISTENT MOIST CONVECTION AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS ERN NEB/NERN KS AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS COMPLICATES HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT. ATTM...EXPECT AT LEAST POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MN AND PORTIONS OF IA/ERN NEB. GIVEN AMOUNT OF SHEAR...CLUSTERS/AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS... AT 1530Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WHICH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MS AND TO THE GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF DECAYING MCS OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THE 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST COLD POOL ACROSS MS/AL WITH TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -9C. THIS THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD WITH BAND OF 15-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNWIND OF REMNANT MCS CIRCULATION AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS /LOW TO MID 70S/ ACROSS CENTRAL AL ENEWD INTO NWRN GA...VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS ZONE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORNING BHM SOUNDING INDICATED MODEST DRY LAYERS ABOVE 700MB WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG STORM-SCALE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STEM FROM WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER CORES AND RESULTING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY AID CELL LONGEVITY AND WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 19:49:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 14:49:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507031959.j63Jxwxr003265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031956 SWODY1 SPC AC 031954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE GLD 40 S HLC 30 E RSL 20 S MHK 15 SSW EMP 25 W BVO 40 NE OKC 35 WSW OKC 30 NE CDS 50 E AMA 50 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 35 WSW GLD 35 ESE GLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CMX JVL 30 WSW UIN 15 SSE UMN 30 NE ADM 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 35 NNW HLC 15 SSE OFK 30 NNE OTG 35 NNW BRD 30 WNW BJI 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 45 SSE U24 SLC 20 SE DGW 20 N MHN 45 SSW MHE 40 NE BKX 30 WSW AXN 20 S FAR 45 NW JMS 20 SSE SDY 50 NNW GGW ...CONT... 40 NE APN 40 SSW HTL 40 SSW SBN 25 WSW MTO UNO 45 SSE MLC 25 ENE BWD 15 NE JCT 10 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 45 SSW SDF DAY 35 NNW CMH 15 SSW CAK 10 SE PIT 15 E MRB 20 SSE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE RDU 45 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN/ECNTRL CO...MUCH OF SRN KS...NWRN HALF OF OK...THE CNTRL/ERN OK PNHDL AND EXTREME NERN TX PNHDL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLD SUPERCELL ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS AFTN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM ERN CO INTO CNTRL/SRN KS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SATL SHOWS BANDS OF HIGH BASED CU OVER CNTRL CO AHEAD OF A POTENT H5 IMPULSE. THESE SHOULD ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG/ ACROSS ERN CO BETWEEN 20-22Z AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. 0-6KM SHEAR OF GREATER THAN 40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE 8.5-9 DEGREE C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT GIANT HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ISOLD TORNADOES. AS THE H5 WAVE MOVES EWD AND TSTM COLD POOLS CONGLOMERATE/ STRENGTHEN...A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PROBABLY VCNTY THE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER WCNTRL/SWRN KS. THE MCS SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE ESEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN KS...NWRN OK AND PERHAPS THE NERN TX PNHDL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY REACH ERN KS AND CNTRL OK BY 12Z WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 65 KTS WITHIN THE MDT RISK AREA ACROSS SRN KS...NCNTRL/NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PNHDL. FARTHER TO THE S...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE FROM NWRN TO SWRN TX LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. STRONGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST ACROSS SWRN TX...BUT GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...ANY TSTMS THAT FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ...CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VLY... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT AS CLEAR AS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING MCS WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG/AHEAD THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN IA INTO ERN MN. CIRRUS OUTFLOW DEBRIS FROM KS TSTMS SEEMS TO BE THINNING ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUED HEATING COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CIRCULATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INITIATION LATER THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL IA NWD INTO ERN MN. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO THE OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE MAY OCCUR AS UPSTREAM LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD FROM THE DAKS. PRESENCE OF 50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS ACROSS IA THIS EVENING/NIGHT AND CONTINUE PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ...SERN STATES... TSTMS SEEM TO BE CONCENTRATING IN TWO BROAD AREAS THIS AFTN. ONE WAS ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS SC AND NRN GA AND ALONG/W OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO SRN WV. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED MULTICELLULAR...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF STORMS THAT EXHIBITED BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE SC NWD TO SRN WV AMIDST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY FOCUSED ON ANY GIVEN AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH NUMEROUS STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS. BRIEF PULSE-TYPE OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. THESE THREATS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING. ..RACY.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 00:45:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 19:45:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507040056.j640uJtK012598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040053 SWODY1 SPC AC 040052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLD 45 SSW HLC 30 WSW SLN 20 S MHK 15 S TOP 25 SSW CNU 30 WNW TUL 25 NW OKC 20 N CSM 55 WSW GAG 45 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 45 WNW GLD 25 ENE GLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CWA JVL 30 WSW UIN 15 SSE UMN 30 NE ADM 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 35 NNW HLC 20 NNW LNK 20 WNW SPW 40 S STC 45 NNE MSP 45 NW AUW 30 ESE CWA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE APN 40 SSW HTL 40 SSW SBN 25 WSW MTO UNO 45 SSE MLC 25 ENE BWD 15 NE JCT 10 SE DRT ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 30 SW CNY 35 N VEL 20 SE DGW 20 N MHN 45 SSW MHE 40 NE BKX 30 WSW AXN 20 S FAR 45 NW JMS 30 WSW P24 70 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 35 ESE OWB 30 W LUK 10 ESE CMH 30 N PKB 25 SE MGW 25 NE SHD 15 ENE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE RDU 45 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN AND N CENTRAL OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN PLAINS THEN SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER S CENTRAL CANADA. THIS ALSO HAS RESULTED IN WLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN CO INTO NERN NM. IT IS THIS EMBEDDED WAVE THAT HAS RESULTED IN VERY STRONG ASCENT ACROSS ERN CO INTO KS. 03/23Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS SFC LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT THAT REACHES EWD/SEWD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER INTO CENTRAL AR. STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO AND ACROSS S CENTRAL KS HAS LEFT A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS INTO S CENTRAL KS. ALSO...CONVECTION OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB INTO SERN CO HAS CREATED ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM GLD SWD AND SWWD THRU SERN CO. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BASICALLY MERGE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENHANCING UVVS FOR A MCS THAT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN KS AND NRN/CENTRAL OK... LATEST RAOB DATA SHOWS DEEP MIXED LAYER OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WITH A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 500 MB. KNOWING THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO/WRN KS AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK ALONG BOUNDARY THAT IS ACROSS SWRN KS...MCS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 25-35 KT IS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL KS AND IS COUPLED WITH WLY 30-35 KT MID LEVEL FLOW POISING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE VERY HIGH INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-4000 J/KG FROM SERN OK INTO S CENTRAL AND SWRN KS /LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -12/. CONSIDERING THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY...MAIN THREATS WILL BE VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE OVERNIGHT MCS. SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR IN AREA OF FAVORABLE 0-3KM HELICITY DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF KS AND EXTREME NRN OK. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 05:37:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 00:37:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507040548.j645m1xi015859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040545 SWODY1 SPC AC 040544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TOL 40 NNW LUK 35 NNE HOP 30 WNW UOX 35 E ELD SHV 50 SSE DAL 30 NW BWD 35 ENE BGS 25 ENE HOB 35 NNE ROW 45 S LVS 55 WSW COS 10 SSE 4FC 20 SSW CYS 15 NNW SNY 35 NW IML 25 ESE GLD 15 S GCK 40 NNE GAG 25 W PNC 25 ESE CNU 15 E SZL 30 SE IRK 25 E MLI 15 WNW MKE 25 WSW TVC 10 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK BGM IPT 15 SSW SHD 20 SSE LYH 50 NNE RDU 60 NE RWI 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 25 S CLL 30 NNE AUS 25 NNE JCT 70 SW SJT 25 SSE P07 ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 35 NW GDP 10 S ALM ONM 20 ESE 4SL 15 SE CEZ 40 WNW PGA 40 W CDC 60 ESE TPH 20 ESE BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 20 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 30 ENE MQM 30 NNE BZN 65 ENE BIL 55 NNE RAP 15 SSW 9V9 25 S SUX 30 SE MCW 20 W RST 25 NW MKT 20 N HON 35 S DIK 30 N GDV 65 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CO.... ...SYNOPSIS... OVERNIGHT MCC COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DY1 OUTLOOK. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD INTO NERN NM. ELSEWHERE...MODELS SHOW POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY. MCV ASSOCIATED WITH MCC IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND MOVE ENEWD INTO NERN INDIANA/SERN MI BY 05/12Z. AT THE SURFACE... MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL UPR MI SWD/SWWD THRU NERN MO AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THE MCC IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE SEVERAL OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM ERN MO SWWD ACROSS NRN AR INTO CENTRAL/SRN OK INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ...LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SERN MO BY 05/00Z. AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK /20-25 KT/ UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET...ENOUGH TO HAVE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI SWWD INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MCV ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CENTRAL PLAINS MCC IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NERN MO/W CENTRAL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID TO ENHANCE UVVS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SOME SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE REMAINING BOUNDARIES. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN AR WWD THRU SRN OK/NRN TX INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BOUNDARIES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER SWRN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES DEVELOP WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING IT SEWD INTO NWRN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER NWRN TX DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LIE BY AFTERNOON. NAM/ETA MODEL GENERATES STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5C/KM WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MU CAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER E CENTRAL/SERN CO...AND ALONG THE OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A SECOND MCS/MCC ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVING THE IDEA OF LOWER PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE UNKNOWN NATURE AND LOCATION OF THE OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. LATER UPPER AIR DATA/UPDATED MODELS COULD GIVE A BETTER INDICATION WHETHER IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE RISK LATER IN THE DAY. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 12:46:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 07:46:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507041257.j64CvN2P016502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041255 SWODY1 SPC AC 041253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE INK 40 SSE CVS 40 SE LVS 60 N ALS 10 S 4FC 30 NNE LAR 50 ESE DGW 30 SE AIA 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 45 E GAG 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 30 NNW JCT 55 E P07 25 SE INK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 45 W LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 45 N GLH 55 N LIT 25 WNW TBN 10 NNW UIN 15 SE MKE 20 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 35 NW GDP 10 S ALM ONM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 10 WSW PGA 25 E P38 60 N DRA 20 ESE BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 35 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 40 ESE HLN 35 ESE LWT 25 SW REJ 15 SSW 9V9 25 S SUX 15 SSE MCW 20 W RST 25 NW MKT 20 N HON 35 S DIK 30 N GDV 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 50 NE DRT 10 WNW DRT ...CONT... EFK BGM IPT 35 SSW MRB CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO PARTS OF KS/OK AND TX... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES AND OFF THE FL CST. THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED FROM TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. STLT/VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT LEAD IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM...RESPONSIBLE IN PART FOR OVERNIGHT KS/OK MCS...IS NOW OVER NE KS/NW MO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO NRN IND/LWR MI BY 12Z TUESDAY AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX...NOW OVER SW WY/NE UT...CONTINUES ESE INTO SE KS/NE OK. ...LWR MI SW INTO THE MID MS VLY... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WRN ONTARIO ATTM EXTENDS FROM ERN LK SUPERIOR TO NW MO. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE MS VLY LATER TODAY AND MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN LWR MI. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NRN IL SEWD INTO SRN/ERN MO...ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY/ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. AIR MASS OVER ERN MO/IL REGION WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ...WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /AROUND 20-25 KT/ AND VEERED TO SSWLY. BUT 35-40 KT WSW FLOW AT MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH NW MO IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN ERN MO AND IL. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY ANY LEFTOVER CIRCULATIONS/BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN IA/WI/NRN IL. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION... LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS LATER TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MTNS AND CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF WY/UT IMPULSE. ASSOCIATED INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER PLAINS...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL WY...CNTRL CO AND NRN NM. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG HEATING AND 30-35 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS THE STORMS MOVE E/SE INTO THE PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLUX AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS BY EVENING. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE E INTO WRN KS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SSE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. THESE CLUSTERS MAY POSE A RISK FOR WIND/HAIL INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ...SW TX TO RED RVR VLY REGION... COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD INTO NW TX FROM KS/OK MCS...IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN W TX...MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER REGION. COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP NWD INTO WRN/SRN OK THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ENHANCES WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE STORM-GENERATED OUTFLOW. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 16:28:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 11:28:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507041639.j64GdkB5018032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041632 SWODY1 SPC AC 041630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 25 NNW LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 55 WSW MEM 55 N LIT 25 WNW TBN 10 NNW UIN 25 NNW CGX 15 SSE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE LVS 30 W PUB 30 NNE LAR 25 ENE DGW 25 SSW CDR 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 45 E GAG 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 35 N JCT 25 NE INK 40 SE LVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 30 NE ALM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 30 SSE BCE 25 E P38 60 N DRA 20 ESE BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 35 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 25 NNE BZN 40 N BIL 35 SSW REJ 40 ESE PHP 25 WSW OFK 10 WNW OMA 55 E OMA 45 NE DSM 40 SW LSE 30 S EAU 40 ENE RWF 35 NNW ATY 25 SSE JMS 50 NE JMS 25 WNW INL ...CONT... EFK 30 ENE IPT 15 SE HGR 45 NE CHO 25 W RIC 20 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 10 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID SOUTH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RESPECTABLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING SSEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 50S FROM SERN WY INTO ERN CO. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH FLAT WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASED ASCENT AS THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN WY INTO CENTRAL CO/NRN NM BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TODAY AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE INTO ONE MORE MCS/S AND PROPAGATE/MOVE SEWD AFTER DARK WITH TRANSITION INTO A WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT DURING THE EVENING. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD INTO THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SWLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PROFILES INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS FROM THE MID SOUTH NEWD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON. REFERENCE SWOMCD 1637 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ABOUT NEAR-TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EWD INTO IND/SRN LOWER MI AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI ATTM...AS THEY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT NWD INTO NRN LOWER MI TODAY...WITH PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING S-SE OF CURRENT BAND OF CLOUDS. ...WRN TX INTO NRN TX AND SRN AR/NRN LA... AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED FROM CENTRAL TX EWD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. ATTM...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND BRIEF-LIVED OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WEAK LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHEAR APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FARTHER WEST ALONG SLOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO WRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAF/S SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG THIS PORTION OF OUTFLOW. SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY NWD INTO THE WEST TX PLAINS...AND SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 19:49:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 14:49:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507042000.j64K0rUE000348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041958 SWODY1 SPC AC 041957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 25 NNW LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 55 WSW MEM 55 N LIT 30 WSW UNO 15 N STL 40 SSE MKE 15 SSE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LVS 20 NNW FCL 20 E DGW 30 SW CDR 60 SE AIA 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 50 WSW END 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 35 N JCT 25 NE INK 45 SSE LVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 30 NE ALM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 30 SSE BCE 35 ESE MLF 25 E DPG 25 E MLD 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 25 NNE BZN 40 N BIL 35 SSW REJ 40 ESE PHP 25 WSW OFK 10 WNW OMA 55 E OMA 45 NE DSM 40 SW LSE 30 S EAU 40 ENE RWF 35 NNW ATY 25 SSE JMS 50 NE JMS 25 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 N BML 30 ENE IPT 15 SE HGR 45 NE CHO 25 W RIC 20 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 10 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF WRN OK / NWRN TX... ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP -- MAINLY INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- ACROSS SERN WY / ERN CO / NERN NM ATTM...WITHIN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW / FAIRLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...AND THEN SPREAD SEWD OVERNIGHT AS MODEST SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BENEATH MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SELYS INCREASING AT LOW LEVELS AND PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD SUPPORT STRONGER STORM ROTATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...WHEN SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND/OR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM LOWER MI SSWWD INTO SERN MO / NERN AR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM SERN MO TO SRN LOWER MI...AND THUS EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH TIME...ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE...LOCALLY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / MID SOUTH REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...N TX... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS N TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LYING FROM ROUGHLY E CENTRAL NM SEWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN EWD TOWARD THE SEP / ACT AREA. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS TX...THOUGH CAP S OF OUTFLOW SHOULD HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. N OF BOUNDARY...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE TRANSPECOS / HILL COUNTRY REGIONS. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES...AND THUS SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- MAY INCREASE AS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPS. ..GOSS.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 05:31:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 00:31:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507050542.j655gqoZ022606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050540 SWODY1 SPC AC 050538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE COS 35 ENE FCL 15 WSW BFF CDR 55 WNW VTN 25 S VTN 10 WNW BBW 25 NE HLC 40 W RSL 30 SSE DDC 45 SSW GAG 30 SSW CDS 45 NE BGS 20 ENE BGS 15 WSW MAF 10 ENE INK 35 WSW HOB 30 SE ROW 45 ENE LVS 20 NW TAD 15 NE COS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HUL 25 WSW BGR 20 ESE LCI 15 ENE PSF 45 SSW ALB 20 ESE ELM 20 NNE BFD 15 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 25 E ALM 40 SE ABQ 25 NNE 4SL 30 NW 4BL 50 SW DPG 65 NNE ENV 60 WNW RIW 30 ESE BIL 45 S GGW 75 NNE OLF ...CONT... 70 N GFK 15 WSW FAR 20 S BKX SUX 40 N FNB 15 NNW OJC 25 NW JLN 10 W FYV 40 NNW HOT 25 NNW UOX 55 NNE MSL 50 NW CSV 45 NNE SDF 30 NW MIE 40 WNW FWA 20 NE GRR 15 E APN ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 45 W HOU 40 S AUS 20 W HDO 45 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN ACROSS NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM QUEBEC SWWD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...SWRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND/WRN WA. THIS WILL KEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED TROUGH DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER SERN WY/ERN CO THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL MCS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES NEWD INTO ME... BOTH THE NAM/ETA AND GFS DRAG A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE GFS LEADS A SLIGHTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NEWD OVER SRN QUEBEC...BUT BOTH MODELS CONCUR THAT MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE INTO ME WILL BE IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE ADVANCED EWD EARLY ON TO ALLOW SOME HEATING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS OVER NY INTO VT SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NAM/ETA INDICATE MUCAPE WILL BE 2000-2500 J/KG IF SFC TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID 80S THRU CENTRAL NY STATE. ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM WITH DRY MID LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODELS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING SLY 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH WEST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN ENHANCED BY SELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS MUCAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KT COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN CO INTO NERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY A FEW TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP OVER ERN CO...BUT THEN AS MORE STORMS DEVELOP...A MCS WILL FORM WITH THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS TIME BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY TPC/NHC OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD WITH THE CENTER EXPECTED INTO S CENTRAL LA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE TPC/NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 16:26:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 11:26:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507051637.j65GbTga014706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051634 SWODY1 SPC AC 051632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CYS 50 S GCC 20 NNE 81V 45 SE PHP 15 NW HSI 30 ESE CSM 30 E BGS 30 S INK 35 SSE GDP 40 NW GDP 15 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HUL 20 ESE LCI 35 SW ABE 20 SSW LBE 30 S YNG 25 WNW ERI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 15 SSE BTR 30 NE MCB LUL 65 SW SEM 15 NW CEW 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 20 SSE ONM 35 NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 25 N BCE 40 SSW ELY 55 W ELY 50 SE BAM 10 SE EKO 60 S TWF 30 SSW MLD 25 SSW RKS 40 WSW LAR 50 SW DGW 35 SE SHR 50 W 4BQ 15 NE MLS 30 NW GDV 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PSX 30 NW VCT 40 ESE JCT 40 WSW JCT 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 40 ENE JMS 40 SSE ABR 10 SW BKX 40 SW SPW 30 SW DSM 25 NE STJ 10 WNW TOP 30 WSW CNU 35 ESE BVO 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 20 W OWB 30 WSW BMG 15 E DNV 30 SSE MMO 40 SE DBQ 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE RHI 40 N TVC 10 SE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...NERN WY/WRN SD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... APPEARS ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING OVER THE WRN PLAINS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S INTO WRN SD...WHERE 12Z SOUNDING FROM RAP INDICATED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK CAP. WITH MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW /25-35 KT AT H5/ FORECAST ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB/NERN CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...THOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS AND SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH INTO SERN CO AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE STORMS IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS TROUGH THE EVENING. DEGREE OF HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY COMPLEX WHICH CAN FORM MAY PERSIST WELL EWD INTO WRN KS/WRN TX/WRN OK AFTER DARK WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IS ALREADY INCREASING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OH. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WLY MID LEVEL WINDS...SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. PRIMARY THREAT MAY FOCUS FROM WRN PA NEWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD INTO THE REGION. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SBCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE LAPSE RATES MAY HAMPER OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER EXPECT SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW AND SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE FROM CLUSTERS/LINES THAT SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT...AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM NC INTO CENTRAL VA/MID ATLANTIC. COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA. WITH 20-25 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...STORMS MAY SPREAD AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY SHIFT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...SERN LA INTO SRN AL/SRN MS/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE BROADER REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS H85 WIND INCREASE AND BACK TO MORE ELY AHEAD OF T.S. CINDY. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND CLOUD BASES JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY WIND DAMAGE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 19:41:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 14:41:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507051952.j65Jqd2G002095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051950 SWODY1 SPC AC 051948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CYS 15 W 81V 35 SW REJ 35 SE PHP 20 SW BBW 30 WSW RSL 30 NE CSM 35 ESE CDS 30 E BGS 30 SSE INK 30 SSE GDP 40 NW GDP 15 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HUL 20 N PSM 35 SW ABE 25 NE MGW 25 ESE CAK 45 NW ERI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 ENE BTR 45 NE MCB 25 NE LUL 55 SW SEM 35 NNW CEW 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 25 W VCT 15 ENE HDO 55 WNW HDO 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 25 W ELP 35 S ABQ 35 NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 25 N BCE 40 SSW ELY 55 W ELY 50 SE BAM 15 NNW EKO 60 S TWF 30 SSW MLD 25 SSE RKS 35 WNW LAR 10 SSE CPR 25 SSE SHR 50 W 4BQ 20 NNE MLS 40 NW GDV 75 NW ISN ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK 40 ENE JMS 40 SSE ABR 10 SW BKX 40 SW SPW 30 SW DSM 25 NE STJ 10 WNW TOP 30 WSW CNU 35 ESE BVO 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 20 W OWB 30 WSW BMG 15 E DNV 30 SSE MMO 40 SE DBQ 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE RHI 40 N TVC 10 SE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE NERN U.S.... ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NERN NM THROUGH CNTRL CO AND INTO SERN WY WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD. SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG E OF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN CO. VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FROM CO INTO SERN WY. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOVE THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN CO...SERN WY AS WELL AS SWRN NEB AND WRN KS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... THREAT OF MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST AS T.S. CINDY MOVES TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INLAND LATER TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL EXIST WITH RAIN BANDS E OF THE CENTER WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST. ...NERN U.S.... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NERN STATES WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. THE THREAT OF PRIMARY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DIAL.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 00:55:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 19:55:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507060105.j6615s3t020092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060103 SWODY1 SPC AC 060101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CYS 45 SE 81V 65 N PHP 35 W HON 35 ESE BUB 35 WNW HLC 60 S LBL 35 NNE PVW 10 SW LBB 20 NNE HOB 20 N CNM 40 SW ROW 15 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE HUM 35 SE MCB 10 SW LUL 35 SE MEI 55 SW SEM 30 N CEW 10 NW AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW ORF 30 SW RIC 35 SSW CHO 30 NW MRB 40 NNW CXY 25 SE AVP 20 S EWR 15 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 35 S ABQ 35 NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 30 WSW 4HV 45 SSE U24 40 W U24 30 SSE ENV 35 NE ENV 30 SSW MLD EVW 25 SSE RKS 35 WNW LAR 20 WSW DGW 10 SE GCC 45 ENE 4BQ 30 ESE GDV 10 NNE SDY 55 N ISN ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK 40 ENE JMS 40 SSE ABR 30 W FSD 25 WNW SUX 35 WNW OMA BIE 25 ENE SLN ICT 15 NNE TUL 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 25 NNE HOP 30 WSW LUK 25 WNW CMH 25 W TOL 25 NW CGX 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE RHI 40 N TVC 10 SE APN ...CONT... 15 SSE PSX 25 W VCT 15 ENE HDO 55 WNW HDO 20 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMINDER OF TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SERN QUEBEC INTO THE NERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN NWLY FLOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO WLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW...NAMELY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER FROM WRN SD INTO N CENTRAL NM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WRN AREAS OF ME SWWD ACROSS SERN NY STATE AND SWRN WV...THEN CONTINUES AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THRU NWRN AL INTO NRN TX AND ERN CO. FINALLY...T.S. CINDY WAS LOCATED S OF SERN LA NOW MOVING NNEWD TOWARDS EXTREME SERN LA AND SERN MS. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NHC/TPC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. ...NERN PARTS OF THE U.S. INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... LINE OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MLCAPES ARE 500 TO 1500 J/KG FROM S CENTRAL PA INTO ERN VA. LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS FROM IAD SHOWS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 6-7C/KM. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PARTS PA..MD..NJ AND NRN VA. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW FROM TX/OK/KS INTO ERN CO CONTINUES TO INITIATE CONVERGENCE/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN CO INTO NERN NM...AND EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF SWRN SD. HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND WEAKER INSTABILITY ON THE LOWER PLAINS MAY LIMIT SEWD EXTEND OF SMALLER MCS OVER ERN CO TONIGHT...LIMITING TO WRN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT OVER SERN LA...SERN MS...SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AS T.S. CINDY MOVES NNEWD TOWARD EXTREME SERN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 05:27:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 00:27:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507060538.j665cT66001408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060536 SWODY1 SPC AC 060534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MOB 50 ESE LUL 45 WSW SEM 20 SW MGM 15 SSE TOI 25 W MAI PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GFK 55 W AXN 40 WSW RWF 30 SE FSD 45 WNW OLU 45 SSW EAR 40 N DDC 35 WNW GAG 20 N AMA 40 SW DHT 35 SE TAD 30 NE PUB 45 NW AKO 30 NW AIA 25 WSW PHP 45 WNW MBG 20 N BIS 45 SW DVL 45 WSW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW RRT 35 SSW STC 20 NE MCW 30 NNE OTM 25 ESE OJC 20 SSE JLN 40 SE HRO 25 NNW MEM 10 W BNA 40 WNW LOZ 15 NNW UNI 25 ENE CLE ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 20 NE 3B1 45 S HUL ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG 35 WSW ONM 45 W 4SL 50 N CEZ 50 W PUC 55 SSE BAM 70 NE SVE 70 ENE RDM 45 NE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS FROM THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS BROAD TROUGHING OCCURS OVER WRN CANADA LEAVING WSWLY FLOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THRU ERN PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. WILL EXTEND FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS NRN AL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EWD AND SEWD THRU THE NRN PLATEAU EXTENDING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND SWRN MT BY EVENING. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... SEE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES ON T.S. CINDY ISSUED BY NHC/TPC. LATEST PROJECTIONS TAKE THE CENTER OF T.S. CINDY NEWD INTO NWRN GA DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL...GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... NWLY FLOW WILL COVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF BUILDING RIDGE FROM CO INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH MUCAPE REACHING BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM ERN CO AND WRN NE INTO CENTRAL SD. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO A SMALL MCS...POSSIBLY TWO... OVER PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND OVER WRN NE ONTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER ERN CO INTO S CENTRAL SD. ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 12:49:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 07:49:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507061300.j66D09Cc026336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061255 SWODY1 SPC AC 061253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE ATY 20 ESE RWF 20 NE FOD 30 NE OMA 15 WNW OLU 25 WSW EAR 50 NE GCK CSM 55 N ABI 30 ESE BGS 30 WNW MAF 50 ENE ROW 50 SW CAO COS 20 WNW FCL 45 ESE DGW 20 N CDR 10 SSE ANW 20 ENE 9V9 10 ESE ATY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PNS 60 SSW SEM 40 SW 0A8 30 NW BHM 20 ESE RMG 15 NNE AHN 60 SSW AGS 45 WNW AYS 40 NW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 NE 3B1 45 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 35 WSW ONM 45 W 4SL 35 SW GJT 50 W PUC 35 WNW ELY 70 NE SVE 30 E RDM 45 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW RRT 25 WSW STC 10 W ALO 25 NNW IRK 30 NW BVO 30 SW MKO 20 WSW FSM JBR 30 SW BWG 40 WNW LOZ 15 NNW UNI 25 ENE CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS...AND THE MID MO VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE FROM THE ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS INTO THE NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH LOW NOW CROSSING THE BC CST. IN RESPONSE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF EXISTING BROAD TROUGH OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS SHOW T.S. "CINDY" CONTINUING TO BECOME ABSORBED IN SRN STREAM OF THE WLYS...WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOW SPREADING NEWD AROUND SRN SIDE OF CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY UPSTREAM IN THE SRN BRANCH INVOF THE UT/CO BORDER. ...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS... DIURNAL HEATING...APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS TODAY...BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD REGION IN EARNEST LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE ONCE AGAIN RISING TO AOA 2000 J/KG...AND WITH NW TO NNWLY DEEP SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 KTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. INCREASED NLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT AND RECENT INCURSIONS OF SLIGHTLY COOL AIR/STORM OUTFLOW OVER THE LOWER PLAINS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY SSE TOWARD/INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN ERN NM...AND POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY SSEWD INTO PARTS OF W TX. ...SERN STATES... REMNANT CIRCULATION OF "CINDY" EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NNEWD ACROSS AL AND GA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING OF "WARM SECTOR" IN ERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLUX...SETUP MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATIONAL TENDENCIES TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOME THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS RESIDUAL LLJ REDEVELOPS NEWD INTO NRN GA/UPSTATE SC. ...NE NEB/ERN SD/SW MN/NW IA... AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF THE PLAINS LLJ...WILL ENHANCE WAA ON BACKSIDE OF MS/OH VLY SURFACE RIDGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO VLY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 16:19:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 11:19:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507061630.j66GU9Nc024087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061625 SWODY1 SPC AC 061623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ABI 35 ESE BGS 30 NE INK 35 E ROW 35 SSE RTN 20 WSW PUB 15 WNW FCL 50 NNE CYS 10 NNE BFF 25 NE SNY 40 SSW IML 25 WNW GCK 30 SW GAG 15 SSW LTS 55 N ABI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FRM 25 NE FOD 25 NW DSM 50 E OMA 40 ENE OLU 30 NW OFK 10 SSW MHE 10 ESE BKX FRM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 65 NNE MOB 20 WNW SEM 30 NNW AUO 30 E CSG 35 NNE ABY 35 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ISN 15 WSW OLF 35 ESE LWT 30 NNW BZN 40 NNE 3DU 55 SSW CTB 50 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 S EPM ...CONT... 35 E OWB 30 SSE BMG 20 ESE DEC 30 WSW MLI 30 N IRK 10 WSW P35 15 NE FNB 30 WNW MHK 35 W HUT 25 SSW END 50 ESE SPS 40 S FTW 55 SE DAL 45 SSW PRX 20 ESE MLC 25 NNW FSM JBR 25 NW HOP 35 E OWB ...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 W ELP 40 SSE TCS 10 NE TCS 10 SSE ABQ 20 ESE 4SL 40 ENE DRO 30 W GJT 35 W PUC 35 NNW DPG 55 SSE EKO 25 SSW BAM 40 NNE WMC 60 SSE BNO 60 SSW BNO 15 W 4LW 10 E RBL 25 N UKI 35 SSE EKA 35 NE ACV 25 NW MFR 25 WNW RDM 60 NE RDM 20 WSW ALW 40 WSW GEG 45 ESE 4OM 30 N 4OM ...CONT... 40 ENE RKS 40 E RWL 10 NNE DGW 15 NE GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 WSW COD 40 WNW LND 40 ENE RKS ...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 S GFK 20 SSW FAR 45 SSW AXN 20 WSW MSP 50 ENE MSP 25 WSW IWD 35 NE RHI 35 NNE GRB 45 N GRR 15 ENE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST INTO SRN AL/SWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NERN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO PORTIONS OF WRN IA... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... 12Z SOUNDING FROM DNR INDICATES LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DESPITE SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE MID 50S INTO THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER 60S OUT OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS. THUS...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AGAIN BOOST MLCAPES INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE BY 20Z. MORNING OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH SPREADS ESEWD LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM ERN CO INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS BOTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPSTREAM. THEREFORE... SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER TODAY. REGARDLESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENCE OF 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS...THOUGH OVERALL MODE MAY TRANSITION TO MORE MULTICELL IN NATURE BY THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL STONES...WILL AGAIN BE PRIMARY THREAT. AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS...ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SSEWD MAINLY INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX AFTER DARK AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...WRN FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/WRN GA... REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SYSTEM SHIFTS N AND THEN NEWD THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS...MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP WITH STRONGER CORES /AS EVIDENCED RECENTLY JUST EAST OF MOB/. THUS...THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE...SHOULD ACCOMPANY STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL/NERN MT... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST OVER MUCH OF MT THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S AS FAR WEST AS LWT AND HVR AT 16Z. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED HEATING. SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS ID AND INTO NWRN MT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WRN MT LATER TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS AS THEY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN MT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ...SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO PORTIONS OF IA... 12Z SOUNDING FROM ABR INDICATES MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER COOL FOR JULY OVER THIS REGION /H5 TEMPS NEAR -12C/. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA. THOUGH FORCING/CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 19:53:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 14:53:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507062004.j66K43IN032370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062001 SWODY1 SPC AC 062000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ABI 35 ESE BGS 30 WNW MAF 40 NNE CNM 45 ESE LVS 20 WSW PUB 15 W FCL 45 W BFF BFF 30 ESE SNY 40 SSW IML 30 WNW GCK 35 SW GAG 30 W LTS 65 N ABI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CEW 20 S MGM 10 N BHM 20 NW RMG 55 E RMG 25 E ATL 25 S TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 20 WSW OLF 35 ESE LWT 30 NNW BZN 35 NE 3DU 55 SSW CTB 50 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE RKS 40 E RWL 10 NNW DGW 10 N GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 WSW COD 40 WNW LND 40 ENE RKS ...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 S GFK 20 SSW FAR 45 SSW AXN 20 WSW MSP 50 ENE MSP 25 WSW IWD 35 NE RHI 35 NNE GRB 45 N GRR 15 ENE MTC ...CONT... 35 E OWB 30 SSE BMG 20 ESE DEC 30 WSW MLI 40 NW UIN 20 SE P35 STJ 30 WNW EMP 40 N P28 25 SSW END 50 ESE SPS FTW 35 ESE DAL 35 N TYR 20 ESE MLC 25 NNW FSM JBR 25 NW HOP 35 E OWB ...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 W ELP 40 SSE TCS 10 NE TCS 10 SSE ABQ 20 ESE 4SL 40 ENE DRO 30 W GJT 35 W PUC 35 NNW DPG 55 SSE EKO 25 SSW BAM 40 NNE WMC 60 SSE BNO 60 SSW BNO 15 W 4LW 10 E RBL 25 N UKI 35 SSE EKA 35 NE ACV 25 NW MFR 25 WNW RDM 60 NE RDM 20 WSW ALW 40 WSW GEG 45 ESE 4OM 30 N 4OM ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 20 S EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN MT... ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAKER MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR THAN IN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEAKER FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS MAY SLOWER TO DEVELOP EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE THE WEAKER FLOW...0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT IS STILL AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND NM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAVE MOVED INLAND AND ARE LOCATED OVER SWRN AL. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN BANDS E OF THE CENTER ACROSS AL...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO WRN GA LATER THIS EVENING. PRIMARY RAINBAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH SERN AND E CNTRL AL. CLOUD BREAKS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN VICINITY OF THIS RAINBAND. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE AUGMENTED WHERE SUPERCELLS ARE LIFTING NWD THROUGH E CNTRL AL AND INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO PRE-EXISTING E-W BOUNDARY. ...MT... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER CNTRL MT WITH MID TO UPPER 50S PERSISTING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS. RESULTING MLCAPE RANGES FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE TO IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN THE EAST. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL MT AND RUC/SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS N CNTRL MT. SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NEWD. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 00:48:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 19:48:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507070058.j670wpg3016179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070056 SWODY1 SPC AC 070055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW CDS 45 N BGS 40 W INK 35 NW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 25 NNW CVS 35 WSW CAO 10 S PUB 25 W LIC AKO 40 N GLD 30 SSE GLD GCK 50 SW GAG 15 SW CDS 50 SW CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DHN 15 NNW TOI 20 SE BHM GAD 40 NNE ATL 30 S AHN 30 N ABY 35 E DHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK GFK 10 SSE FAR 40 SSW AXN FRM MCW ALO 10 SSE CID 40 NW UIN P35 LNK GRI BBW 25 WNW RSL LTS MWL 40 ESE DAL TXK PBF DYR SDF HUF BMI LNR 55 NNE EAU 25 WSW IWD 35 WNW IMT GRB 25 ESE JVL 40 S CGX SBN MFD YNG IPT 35 SW BGM ITH 35 NNE UCA ALB 15 SSW PSF 15 SW EWB ...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 W ELP TCS ABQ 4SL 40 ENE DRO 30 W GJT PUC 25 SSE DPG ELY 40 NNE TPH TPH 30 W BIH 45 S TVL 45 W RNO SVE 75 ENE 4LW BNO 65 E RDM 20 WSW ALW PUW 63S 30 N 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE RKS 40 E RWL 10 NNW DGW 10 N GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 WSW COD 40 WNW LND 40 ENE RKS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...ERN GULF STATES... WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BECOMING FOCUSED IN BELT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW... LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. ...ERN MT... ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. THIS... COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...MAY LIMIT DURATION/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...ELSEHWERE... ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP BEFORE NIGHTFALL IN HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 05:47:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 00:47:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507070558.j675wRTA019808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070555 SWODY1 SPC AC 070553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC CDS BWD 10 SSW JCT 25 ENE FST INK 40 E ROW TCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT AXN 10 S FSD 10 SW 9V9 PHP RAP 30 WNW REJ GDV 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AND HKY LYH 25 SSE CHO RIC 35 WNW ECG 30 SSE FAY 35 SE AGS 45 SSE AHN 20 NNW AND. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 25 NW ELO 45 ENE BRD 25 NW MSP 10 W RST 35 SE DBQ 25 SSE BRL 15 SSW LWD 20 SE SUX 10 SE GRI 40 W HUT 35 ESE FSI 40 NNW DAL 40 SSE GGG 35 SE MLU 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 60 WSW RTN 20 SW ASE 35 WNW VEL 25 ENE DPG 50 SSE EKO 55 WSW OWY 50 E BKE 30 NE S80 50 WNW HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE ALEUTIANS...MODELS INDICATE LARGER SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW PROGGED WEST NORTHWEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY. DOWNSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE LEE OF THE U.S. ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH NORTHEAST OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BORDER. FARTHER EAST...WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIFT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... STRONGER FLOW FIELDS...INCLUDING 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EAST/ NORTHEAST OF REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION...ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THERE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE AMPLE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG. UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT...AND VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY PEAK HEATING. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL NORTH OF REGION...FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH CREST OF UPPER RIDGE BY/ SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-4000 J/KG ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVOLUTION OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. IF CAP BREAKS...INITIATION OF STORMS SEEMS MOST LIKELY NEAR SURFACE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGEST STORMS. CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY FORM A LARGE SURFACE COLD POOL AND BROADER SCALE STRONG WIND THREAT...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MOST PROBABLE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS AS IT STALLS FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FORMS AND DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 12:26:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 07:26:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507071236.j67CaqkL031010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071234 SWODY1 SPC AC 071232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LVS 20 NE TAD 25 ESE LHX 25 ENE PVW 60 WNW ABI 10 NNW BWD 15 NNE MWL 10 WSW TYR 35 SSE LFK 40 N PSX 15 ESE HDO 25 ENE FST 25 N INK 40 E ROW 35 ESE LVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT AXN 20 NNE FSD 25 W YKN 20 WSW 9V9 PHP RAP 40 ENE 4BQ GDV 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 SSE FAY 50 S CAE 45 N AGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 60 WSW RTN 20 SW ASE 35 WNW VEL 25 ENE DPG 50 SSE EKO 55 WSW OWY 50 E BKE 30 NE S80 50 WNW HVR ...CONT... 25 NW ELO 45 ENE BRD 25 NW MSP 10 W RST 35 SE DBQ 25 SSE BRL 15 SSW LWD OMA 45 ESE HSI 40 W HUT 30 ENE FSI 35 S ADM 25 SSW HOT 10 S LIT 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ERN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HI PLNS AND CNTRL/SE TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL RCKYS AND THE HI PLNS NE INTO THE N CNTRL STATES THIS PERIOD AS POTENT NE PACIFIC SPEED MAX/TROUGH NOW CROSSING 150W CONTINUES EWD. OVER THE ERN U.S...BUILDING OF PLAINS RIDGE LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLIFICATION OF EXISTING TROUGH. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY /1/ CONTINUED ABSORPTION OF REMNANTS OF "CINDY" AND /2/ CONTINUED E/SE MOTION OF MCVS AND ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FROM THE SRN PLNS. ...CAROLINAS/SE VA... SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FORMER T.S. "CINDY" IS NEAR ATL ATTM AND SHOULD MOVE NE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APLCNS TODAY... REACHING ERN MD/DE BY 12Z FRIDAY. SURFACE DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM CINDY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SE VA. MODERATE SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS BOUNDARY REMAINS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC /850-700 MB/ WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY... WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40 KTS...APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA ATTM AND SHOULD LIFT ENE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS CINDY SHEARS NEWD. COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD...UPLIFT ALONG BOUNDARY AND HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET. ...SRN HI PLNS INTO S CNTRL/SE TX... WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND RECURRENT MCS OUTFLOWS HAVE PRODUCED A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE FROM NW TX INTO OK. S OF THIS AXIS...SELY FLOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING OF THE NM MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...MODERATE /25-30 KT/ NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ON FRINGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE PRODUCTION OF HIGH WINDS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER E/SE...OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AND/OR INTENSIFY INVOF OF OVERNIGHT MCS THAT IS NOW OVER N CNTRL TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON SWRN FRINGE OF AMPLIFYING ERN STATES TROUGH. THIS MAY CREATE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SUSTENANCE AND CONTINUED SE MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMPARED TO SIMILAR MCSS IN RECENT DAYS. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL. ...NRN PLNS... STLT DATA SUGGEST THAT MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE N CNTRL STATES WILL REMAIN N OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER FAR ERN MT/WRN ND LATER TODAY...INVOF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN SASKATCHEWAN. COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ AND 30+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE ERN MT/ND STORMS SHOULD BY THIS EVENING CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBSTANTIAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. THIS SYSTEM LIKELY WILL MOVE E/SE INTO ERN SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. FARTHER N...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ...MAY MOVE ACROSS NRN ND...IN MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CLOSE TO COLD FRONT. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 16:26:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 11:26:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507071637.j67Gb8PE021198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071632 SWODY1 SPC AC 071631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT AXN 20 NNE FSD 25 W YKN 20 WSW 9V9 PHP RAP 40 ENE 4BQ GDV 70 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 S FAY 50 S CAE 45 N AGS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 N COT 10 WSW P07 25 N MRF 35 E LVS 30 NNE TAD 25 SE LHX 20 E DHT 70 ESE LBB 25 WNW BWD 50 SE BWD 10 SW ACT 35 S DAL 20 WNW TYR 35 SSW SHV 20 ESE POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 WSW DLH 10 E EAU 35 WSW OSH 30 ESE MKE 15 ENE MTC ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 40 SSE VCT 60 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP 35 SSE SAF 20 SW ASE 45 ESE VEL 20 ENE DPG 20 NNW ELY 60 W ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW SUN 35 NE 27U 30 WNW GTF 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DSM 30 NNW MHK 30 NW GCK 20 E EHA 55 W CSM 20 W DUA 40 NE PRX 35 NNW LIT 30 SW JBR 25 W MDH 30 NNE ALN 40 ESE BRL 15 SSE DSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND PIEDMONT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/ERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...CAROLINAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... SURFACE LOW/REMNANTS OF CINDY IS LOCATED OVER FAR NRN GA/WRN NC AS OF 16Z...AND WILL CONTINUE A NEWD TRACK LIKELY ALONG STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER NWD ACROSS WRN NC AND NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE REGION. SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE BAROCLINIC WITH TIME WITH A PSEUDO-COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN GA ATTM. A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO ERN VA WILL FUEL INTENSE STORMS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF MINI-SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO WRN LA... MCV ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS ERN TX TODAY. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 70S AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. AS CAPPING BREAKS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/STRENGTHEN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO E-CENTRAL/SERN TX AND POSSIBLY WRN LA THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH AMBIENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH PROFILER DATA OVER ERN TX INDICATING MID LEVEL WINDS FROM 15-20 KT...NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER FLOW IS LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF MID LEVEL MCV. THUS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUSTAIN AN ORGANIZED LINE/POSSIBLE BOWING MCS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS AS CAP WEAKENS OVER AND JUST EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO ERN NM AND WRN TX LATER TODAY. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY FIRE INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE WEST TX PLAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING WEAKENS CAP. NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM 20-30 KT WILL SUPPORT MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WIND THREAT AS THEY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING...WITH BROAD AREA OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION NEAR 21Z. WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND SUPPORT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR BY LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL/ AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER WRN/CENTRAL ND AND NWRN SD ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS/POSSIBLE BOW ECHO WHICH WILL THEN RACE SEWD THOUGH THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 19:41:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 14:41:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507071952.j67JqBPP020395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071949 SWODY1 SPC AC 071948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT AXN 15 NE FSD 35 W YKN 10 SW PHP 25 S RAP GCC 25 ESE WRL 25 NNE LVM 35 WNW GDV 70 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 S FAY 50 S CAE 45 N AGS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 N COT 15 NNE DRT 25 SW P07 25 N MRF 35 E LVS 30 NNE TAD 25 SE LHX 20 E DHT 70 ESE LBB 25 WNW BWD 50 SE BWD 10 SW ACT 35 S DAL 20 WNW TYR 35 SSW SHV 20 ESE POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 45 S GNT 20 NE MTJ 45 ESE VEL 25 ENE SLC 30 S EKO 25 S OWY 55 SSW MSO 30 WNW GTF 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 40 SE DLH 10 E EAU 15 NE GRB 30 SW MBL OSC ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 40 SSE CRP 25 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DSM 30 NNW MHK DDC 30 NW GAG 55 W CSM 20 W DUA 40 NE PRX 35 NNW LIT 30 SW JBR 25 W MDH 30 NNE ALN 40 ESE BRL 15 SSE DSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS / VA... ...NRN PLAINS INTO SRN MT / NRN WY... STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY AND INTO SWRN MT...INVOF SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN / WRN ND WSWWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN WY. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING NEAR LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS OF SD...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY INITIATE FURTHER N INVOF FRONT ACROSS WRN ND / NWRN SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- NOW FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES -- SHOULD INCREASE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SEWD-MOVING / POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SERN TX... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS E TX ATTM...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER W...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN CO SWD INTO SERN NM...WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED ATTM. SELY / UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW WHICH NOW LIES FROM ROUGHLY CVS TO BWD. MODEST NLY / NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS...WITH MAIN THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE SWD / SSEWD ACROSS PARTS OF W AND PERHAPS CENTRAL TX. ...CAROLINAS / VA... REMNANTS OF CINDY -- NOW CENTERED NEAR THE VA / NC BORDER -- SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH TIME. MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS NE THROUGH S OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL SC NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA. MODERATE / WEAKLY-VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD JUST E OF CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING BUT CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD AS SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. ..GOSS.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 00:50:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 19:50:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507080101.j6811LCr019582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080058 SWODY1 SPC AC 080057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT GFK 15 NE FSD YKN 15 NW VTN PHP 45 ESE REJ 15 NW REJ 20 NW DIK 55 NNW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W SOP GSO 20 SSE CHO 40 ENE RIC 20 E ECG 20 N OAJ 30 S FAY 25 SSW SOP 45 W SOP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC 45 WSW CAO 35 SE LHX 40 E LAA LBL CDS 65 N ABI 40 ESE BGS 15 SSE MAF 35 NNE HOB TCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CRP 25 WNW LRD ...CONT... ELP SAF 40 NNE ALS 30 E CAG RWL CPR 50 SSE WRL RIW LND 10 WSW SLC ENV ELY TPH 35 NE NID NID 50 ESE FAT 15 SSE TVL 35 WNW U31 BAM OWY 55 SSW MSO GTF 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 15 N PBG GFL 50 WSW ALB MSV PHL 10 E ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 20 SW PHX SAD 45 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL BRD MKT ALO 25 WNW DSM OMA 20 W LNK EAR 35 SE HLC CSM MWL 60 SW TYR 50 SW LFK 20 N BPT 40 NW LFT HEZ JAN 40 ENE JAN MEI 30 NNE MOB MAI 25 NW AYS 35 NW SAV CLT ROA EKN MGW ZZV 25 SSE LEX CSV 25 NE CHA 20 SSE RMG GAD MSL OWB 35 S HUF DEC MMO 10 ESE SBN MBS 55 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.... MUCH OF ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING/DIMINISHING WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL INCLUDE.../1/ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND /2/ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BULK OF CONVECTION LIKELY WILL SPREAD WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION...WHERE STABLE BOUNDARY AND WEAK CAPE SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AT LEAST NARROW LINE OF STORMS MAY PERSIST IN TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND ...BACK INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...SPREADING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY EAST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BEGIN TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...WEAK TROUGHING IS STILL EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING INHIBITION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF TROUGH IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER IMPULSE...RAPID INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL/NORTH DAKOTA. EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY TEND TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ...SRN PLAINS... FOR DETAILS...REFER TO LATEST WW AND ASSOCIATED SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 01:07:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 20:07:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507080117.j681HrA0026749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080115 SWODY1 SPC AC 080113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT GFK 15 NE FSD YKN 15 NW VTN PHP 45 ESE REJ 15 NW REJ 20 NW DIK 55 NNW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CVS 50 SSW CAO 40 SSE LHX 25 SE LIC 50 SW GLD 60 E DHT 20 NE PVW 25 S LBB 40 NE HOB 45 ENE ROW 35 W CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W SOP GSO 20 SSE CHO 40 ENE RIC 20 E ECG 20 N OAJ 30 S FAY 25 SSW SOP 45 W SOP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CRP 25 WNW LRD ...CONT... ELP SAF 40 NNE ALS 30 E CAG RWL CPR 50 SSE WRL RIW LND 10 WSW SLC ENV ELY TPH 35 NE NID NID 50 ESE FAT 15 SSE TVL 35 WNW U31 BAM OWY 55 SSW MSO GTF 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 15 N PBG GFL 50 WSW ALB MSV PHL 10 E ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 20 SW PHX SAD 45 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL BRD MKT ALO 25 WNW DSM OMA 20 W LNK EAR 35 SE HLC CSM MWL 60 SW TYR 50 SW LFK 20 N BPT 40 NW LFT HEZ JAN 40 ENE JAN MEI 30 NNE MOB MAI 25 NW AYS 35 NW SAV CLT ROA EKN MGW ZZV 25 SSE LEX CSV 25 NE CHA 20 SSE RMG GAD MSL OWB 35 S HUF DEC MMO 10 ESE SBN MBS 55 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IN SRN PLAINS. MUCH OF ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING/DIMINISHING WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL INCLUDE.../1/ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND /2/ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BULK OF CONVECTION LIKELY WILL SPREAD WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION...WHERE STABLE BOUNDARY AND WEAK CAPE SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AT LEAST NARROW LINE OF STORMS MAY PERSIST IN TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND ...BACK INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...SPREADING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY EAST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BEGIN TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...WEAK TROUGHING IS STILL EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING INHIBITION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF TROUGH IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER IMPULSE...RAPID INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL/NORTH DAKOTA. EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY TEND TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ...SRN PLAINS... FOR DETAILS...REFER TO LATEST WW AND ASSOCIATED SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 05:36:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 00:36:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507080547.j685laIW011713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080545 SWODY1 SPC AC 080543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 50 N TUS 30 WNW SAD 20 NNE SOW 35 NW GUP 25 NE MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 35 W ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 WNW LOL 65 S BNO 35 E RDM 45 E DLS 55 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LNR 35 WSW CID 40 NNE STJ 30 SW TOP 15 WNW END 40 ENE CSM 20 ENE SPS 30 NW TXK 30 ESE PBF 20 N CBM 20 ENE CSG 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 10 SSE CMI 20 SW CGX 25 SSW MBL 10 S GRB 20 NE LNR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL.... AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGS EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY...CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND. MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BUT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY...LIFTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES INTO ALBERTA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...BROAD COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MOSTLY MINOR... GENERALLY HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THREATS. EXCEPTION MAY BE PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... WHERE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA/KEYS... SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF APPROACHING HURRICANE MAY SUPPORT RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER BANDS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CENTER OF DENNIS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT TODAY...BENEATH AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG A COUPLE OF NARROW AXES. ONE SHOULD EXTEND ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING IMPULSE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THE OTHER APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS A CONCERN...BOTH AXES SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND SOME HAIL...BUT...EVEN WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WEAK...MITIGATING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...MONTANA... INHIBITION IS A CONCERN BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE... PARTICULARLY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. FORCING COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING BECOMES INHIBITIVE. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND COULD STILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS ...MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS BULK OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF REGION DURING THE DAY. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES... RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVELS NEAR UPPER LOW COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE BREEZES...AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 12:50:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 07:50:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507081300.j68D0vua006667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081259 SWODY1 SPC AC 081257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LNR 35 WSW CID 40 NNE STJ 30 SW TOP 15 WNW END 40 ENE CSM 20 ENE SPS 30 NW TXK 30 ESE PBF 20 N CBM 20 ENE CSG 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 10 SSE CMI 20 SW CGX 25 SSW MBL 10 S GRB 20 NE LNR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 35 E PHX 45 S INW 45 ENE INW 35 NW GUP 25 NE MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 35 W ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 WNW LOL 65 S BNO 35 E RDM 45 E DLS 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SW FL AND THE FL KEYS.... ...SW FL AREA... HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA AND EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WILL OVERSPREAD SW FL AND THE KEYS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...PLAINS AREA... THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ARE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NE SD/SW MN. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY LIFT WITH A 25-30 KT LLJ OVER THE GUST FRONT...AND ASCENT ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER MANITOBA AND ERN ND. SWD PROPAGATION ON THE OUTFLOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG. THOUGH ABSOLUTE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK...ROUGHLY 180 DEGREES OF VEERING FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. OTHER STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS...AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 25-35 KT LLJ...AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON..AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL. ...MT AREA... HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED...WITH STORM INITIATION TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR STORM FORMATION WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS OF SW MT THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WRN WA. INVERTED-V PROFILES...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ...NRN OH/WRN NY/WRN PA/SE LOWER MI AREA... A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MI WILL DRIFT EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH ROUGHLY 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14 C WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...SE AZ/SW NM AREA... LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXED LAYERS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... THE AREA OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS SPREADING NEWD OVER ERN PA/NJ TOWARD NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR NOW LAGS TO THE SW ACROSS ERN VA/NC. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF VA/NC...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MARGINAL AT BEST. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 16:31:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 11:31:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507081641.j68GfwLo016923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081631 SWODY1 SPC AC 081629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CVS 10 WNW ABI 65 WNW AUS SAT 40 WSW HDO DRT 30 NW P07 25 E GDP ROW 40 SSE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW ANJ 30 ENE GRB 15 WNW DBQ 10 WNW OTM 25 NNE STJ 15 WNW END 30 E CSM 35 SE SPS 25 NE DAL 20 W TXK 10 WNW MEM 35 NW MSL 20 NNE LGC 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 20 NNW HUF 20 W AZO 45 NE MKG 45 N APN ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 50 NW GUP 25 NNW MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 40 WSW ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 W LOL 50 WNW OWY 15 S LWS 45 NW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SWRN FL PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NM SEWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SRN TX.... ...SW FL PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA AND MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL IMPROVE DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DENNIS ISSUED BY NHC. ...EXTREME SERN NM SEWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF S CENTRAL TX... A BAND OF 30 KT MID LEVEL NLY WINDS EXTENDED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO SWRN TX ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO SERN TX. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN TX SHOWED EXTREMELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 700 TO 500 MB WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WERE AIDING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. INTENSE HEATING...TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS MID LEVEL CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO SURFACE BASED STORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ...PLAINS AREA... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN SD AND NWRN IA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 25-30 KT LLJ. COMPLEX MAY GRADUALLY BACKBUILD SSWWD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS INTO NERN NEB...BUT WILL BE FIGHTING STRONGER CAP AS IT MOVES SWD. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED COLD POOL... HEATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER... STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS WEAKENING OVER NRN KS. LBF SOUNDING SHOWED THIS AREA WAS STRONGLY CAPPED AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. HOWEVER..STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH SEVERE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/ WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. ....UPPER MIDWEST... HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN MN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS HAVE THUS FAR LIMITED HEATING...THOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS MN SHOWED MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOME QUESTION ABOUT STORM INITIATION GIVEN CLOUDS...AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME ERN MN/NWRN WI WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAKER. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN WEST OF AREA OF STRONGER DYNAMICAL LIFTING...SO ONLY LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE ATTM. ...MT... HEIGHT RISES AND A STRONG CAP SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS ERN MT. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IN PACIFIC NW. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ...SERN GREAT LAKES AREA... A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD. DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH 500 MB TEMPS FROM -13 TO -15C WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. ...EXTREME SERN AZ/SW NM AREA... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD FROM MEXICO NWD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE...WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EVEN LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE. ..IMY/GUYER.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 19:56:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 14:56:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507082007.j68K72hU007607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082004 SWODY1 SPC AC 082002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W FMY 50 ESE FMY 15 SSE MIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W LBB 45 WSW ABI 35 N JCT 45 S JCT 15 NNW DRT 20 ESE MRF 25 E GDP 15 SE ROW 25 W LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 50 NW GUP 25 NNW MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 40 WSW ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 W LOL 50 WNW OWY 15 S LWS 45 NW CTB ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 30 ENE GRB 15 WNW DBQ 10 WNW OTM 25 NNE STJ 15 WNW END 30 E CSM 35 SE SPS 25 NE DAL 20 W TXK 10 WNW MEM 35 NW MSL 20 NNE LGC 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 20 NNW HUF 20 W AZO 45 NE MKG 45 N APN ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN NM / W TX... ...SRN FL / THE KEYS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF DENNIS CONTINUE SPREADING WNWWD ACROSS SRN FL AND THE KEYS ATTM. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG /AROUND 40 KT/ AND WEAKLY-VEERING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS WITHIN OUTER BANDS. THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS STORM CONTINUES MOVING NWWD ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...SERN NM SEWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY... VERY WARM / DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HAS EVOLVED ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL TX INTO SERN NM ATTM...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S HAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS / LOW ROLLING PLAINS...MAIN AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX / SERN NM. GIVEN HIGH STORM BASES...MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY INCREASE / SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS PARTS OF W TX OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY SELY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION. ...MT... APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH STILL OFF THE PAC NW COAST HAS RESULTED IN SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER...AS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES...AND SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR E AS ERN MT / WRN ND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF CONVECTION. MODERATE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / SEVERE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL MT WWD. WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES / DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN WY / THE BLACK HILLS REGION/ SWD INTO NRN NM...THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE VERY FAR EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE / CAPPING ALOFT. THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL / LIMITED IN EWD EXTENT. ...MN... AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED ACROSS SRN MN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY RE-INITIATE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SERN MANITOBA / NRN ND...OR PERHAPS IN WEAK CONVERGENCE / APPARENT OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL MN N OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. WITH 30 KT NLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE AN INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE SWD WITH TIME. ATTM... WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% HAIL / WIND THREAT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO STORM INITIATION. ...GULF COAST STATES FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO SRN AL... WEAK UPPER LOW / COLD POOL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE WEAK...A MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A STRONGER PULSE-TYPE STORM. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ATTM BENEATH COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LK HURON. THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT / RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN THIS EVENING. ...ERN AZ / WRN NM... MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF LOWER CO VALLEY UPPER LOW ABOVE VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER HAS YIELDED MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NM AND ADJACENT ERN AZ. GIVEN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW GUSTY / DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WARRANTING LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 00:50:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 19:50:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507090101.j69113rp015998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090059 SWODY1 SPC AC 090057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SRQ 40 SSW VRB PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BID 15 WSW ORH 15 ESE PSF GFL 20 N PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 35 WSW HUL 10 SSE EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS SOW INW BCE 10 N U24 EVW MLD 35 N ENV 35 WSW OWY 70 ESE BNO 60 ESE S80 10 NW 3DU 25 NNE CTB ...CONT... 10 N INL HIB 40 N RWF 10 SSW ATY MHE 20 NNE VTN PHP 10 WNW MBG BIS 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 20 NNE MQT IMT DBQ OTM FNB P28 10 SW LTS SEP ACT GGG ELD GWO MSL 50 NNE HSV CHA 30 SSW RMG ATL CAE 30 WNW ILM HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ROC ELM IPT CXY SHD HTS DAY AZO 60 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.... WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...STORMS MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME DUE TO STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL COOLING. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS**... SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY VERY STRONG IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL PROGRESS NORTHWEST OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AREAS WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN STRONGLY SHEARED. THIS WILL MAINTAINING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WHERE MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE COULD STILL BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING....FROM PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA. BEST CHANCE MAY BE NEAR WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NOW DRIFTING SOUTH OF MASON CITY IOWA. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ..KERR.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 01:23:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 20:23:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507090133.j691XhqZ029014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090131 SWODY1 SPC AC 090129 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SRQ 40 SSW VRB PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BID 15 WSW ORH 15 ESE PSF GFL 20 N PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 35 WSW HUL 10 SSE EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS SOW INW BCE 10 N U24 EVW MLD 35 N ENV 35 WSW OWY 70 ESE BNO 60 ESE S80 10 NW 3DU 25 NNE CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT BIS 10 WNW MBG PHP 20 NNE VTN MHE 10 SSW ATY 40 N RWF HIB 10 N INL ...CONT... 20 NNE MQT IMT DBQ OTM FNB P28 10 SW LTS SEP ACT GGG ELD GWO MSL 50 NNE HSV CHA 30 SSW RMG ATL CAE 30 WNW ILM HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ROC ELM IPT CXY SHD HTS DAY AZO 60 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... CORRECTED GENERAL TSTM LINE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS (DIRECTION OF ARROW) WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...STORMS MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME DUE TO STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL COOLING. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS**... SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY VERY STRONG IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL PROGRESS NORTHWEST OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AREAS WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN STRONGLY SHEARED. THIS WILL MAINTAINING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WHERE MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE COULD STILL BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING....FROM PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA. BEST CHANCE MAY BE NEAR WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NOW DRIFTING SOUTH OF MASON CITY IOWA. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ..KERR.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 05:33:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 00:33:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507090544.j695iEga026149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090542 SWODY1 SPC AC 090540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT GFK BIS DIK SDY 55 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS DHN MGR DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ACY 20 S AOO 10 WNW DUJ 25 NNE BUF ...CONT... 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 30 WNW SZL 30 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SE CDS 40 W ABI 35 S BWD 25 ENE ACT 20 NNW PRX 20 ESE PGO 35 WNW LIT 55 SSW JBR 20 S MKL 10 E CHA 40 NW AND 35 WSW SOP 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 35 SSW DMN 40 WSW ONM 25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 35 ESE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 35 SSE WRL 30 WNW RIW 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 35 N WMC 30 W BNO 10 N BKE 30 NNE 3DU 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FAR 45 ESE JMS 10 NW PIR 45 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN 15 WSW BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15 ENE RWF 30 NNW BRD 25 ENE FAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS EXIT REGION OF STRONG ZONAL HIGH LEVEL JET NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST LATTER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY/TONIGHT ...WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST COLD UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...WILL REMAIN WEAK. MODELS SUGGEST EMBEDDED IMPULSE NEAR UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS HURRICANE DENNIS PROPAGATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH MUCH OF THE NATION IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH WARM MID-LEVEL RIDGE...ANY SEVERE EVENTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR...AND WIDELY SCATTERED. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO THE HURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. ...EASTERN GULF STATES... CENTER OF DENNIS IS EXPECTED WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY 12Z TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF STORM COULD BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF MOBILE BAY INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EAST OF CIRCULATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN OUTER BANDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GREATEST THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME VERY MOIST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BENEATH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR OR EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORCING TO WEAKEN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST IMPULSE NOW PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERLIES...COULD CONTINUE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF CAP BREAKS...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...WITH SHEAR PROFILES JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...SOUTH/EAST OF WILLISTON... SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... DEVELOPING WITH BETTER FORCING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER WEST...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA...AS EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET STREAK CONTRIBUTES TO FORCING. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH...IN TURN...WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. ...NORTHEAST... BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ...ROTATING AROUND WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY COLD...ENOUGH HEATING APPEARS LIKELY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/ BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 12:47:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 07:47:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507091258.j69Cw9od006352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091256 SWODY1 SPC AC 091254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE DVL 20 ENE DVL 25 NE BIS DIK SDY 55 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS DHN MGR DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 15 NNW MRB 10 ESE FKL 15 WNW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 30 WNW SZL 30 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SE CDS 40 W ABI 35 S BWD 25 ENE ACT 20 NNW PRX 20 ESE PGO 35 WNW LIT 55 SSW JBR 20 S MKL 10 E CHA 40 NW AND 35 WSW SOP 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 SSW DUG 65 NNW SVC 25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 35 ESE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 35 SSE WRL 30 WNW RIW 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 35 N WMC 30 W BNO 10 N BKE 30 NNE 3DU 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FAR 45 ESE JMS 10 NW PIR 45 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15 ENE RWF 30 NNW BRD 25 ENE FAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST.... ...ERN GULF AREA... HURRICANE DENNIS IS MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY 100 MILES S OF PNS BY 10/12Z. THE OUTER ERN/NERN RAIN BANDS HAVE OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND S FL...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL REACH N FL LATER TODAY. THOUGH THE STORM CORE WILL NOT GET CLOSER TO THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT TODAY WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW LOCALIZED DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH ANY TORNADOES SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONES TO FOCUS THE THREAT. ...ND AREA... A MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A CYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL MT WILL DEVELOP EWD TO WRN ND BY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIS/GGW SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 F BASED ON A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. STILL...THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WRN AND NRN ND. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW LAGGING W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ...NY/PA AREA... A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING SLOWLY EWD OVER NY/PA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/PIT REVEAL COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15 C AT 500 MB/ AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW...BUT THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA/NY. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 16:22:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 11:22:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507091633.j69GXbZW006496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091628 SWODY1 SPC AC 091626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS DHN MGR DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 55 SE MOT 25 SE DIK 65 NW REJ 15 SE MLS 45 N MLS 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ACY 20 NNW DCA 15 SSE LBE 15 NE PIT 25 WNW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 65 N SVC 25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 25 SE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 10 NNE RIW 25 ENE BPI 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 40 NW EKO 40 WSW OWY 55 SW S80 30 N 3DU 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 15 NE MTW 40 S OSH 20 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 40 S OJC 40 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SW ABI 30 S BWD 25 ENE ACT 25 N PRX 15 SSE FSM 65 ESE HRO 35 E JBR 50 NNE HSV 55 SSE TYS 40 ESE CLT 40 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 30 NW MKT 15 ENE BRD 25 NW BJI 45 WNW FAR 55 NE MBG 30 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT AND ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PRIMARILY FL.... ...FL REGION... HURRICANE DENNIS IS MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES S OF PNS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER OUTER RAIN BANDS CURRENTLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA AND WILL SPREAD NWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS DENNIS SHIFTS NWWD. LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE RAIN BANDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. REFERENCE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DENNIS. ...MT/ND AREA... A MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN ND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS WWD INTO ERN MT. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS SERN MT AND WRN ND AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT LATER TODAY FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DOWNDRAFTS MAY AID IN SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. IF STORMS DON'T DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY MAY TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THE FORCING. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...NY/PA AREA... A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -14 TO -16C. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...AND A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... THOUGH DYNAMICAL FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...PW/S IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF STORMS SUGGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF HAIL/WIND THREAT. ..IMY/GUYER.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 19:31:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 14:31:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507091941.j69Jft5p023640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091939 SWODY1 SPC AC 091938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB DHN MGR 35 NNE GNV 15 NW VRB 25 SSE MIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 50 SE MOT 30 SE DIK 60 NW REJ 15 SSE MLS 45 N MLS 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ACY 20 NNW DCA 15 SSE LBE 15 NE PIT 25 WNW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 65 N SVC 25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 30 WNW RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 10 NNE RIW 25 ENE BPI 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 40 NW EKO 45 NNW OWY 75 WSW 27U 20 NNW GTF 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 15 NE MTW 40 S OSH 20 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 40 S OJC 40 ESE P28 35 S GAG 45 NNW ABI 25 NNE BWD 25 NE ACT 25 N PRX 15 SSE FSM 60 S UNO 25 W HOP 50 NNE HSV 55 SSE TYS 40 ESE CLT 40 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 30 NW MKT 15 ENE BRD 25 NW BJI 45 WNW FAR 55 NE MBG 30 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL / PORTIONS OF SRN GA / SRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT / WRN ND... ...FL / SERN AL / SWRN GA... FAVORABLY STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS EXISTS ACROSS THE FL KEYS / THE WRN 2/3 OF THE FL PENINSULA ATTM. ENHANCED FLOW WILL SPREAD NWWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SRN AL / SWRN GA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DENNIS CONTINUES NWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF. THOUGH STRONGEST ONSHORE BANDING -- AND GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT -- EXISTS N OF TAMPA ATTM...LONGER-TERM THREAT EXISTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AS OTHER BANDS FORM / MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. AS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS NWD...EXPECT THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN OUTER BANDS TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SRN AL / SRN GA THROUGH 10/12Z. ...PARTS OF MT / WRN DAKOTAS... MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED FROM SWRN MT NEWD INTO NERN MT ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS ALONG / AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH -- ALL WITHIN REGION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...MODELS FORECAST RIDGING TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL MT. SOME INCREASE IN CUMULUS FIELD IS NOTED ACROSS FAR SWRN MT...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM W TO E WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE...A FEW STRONGER / SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR ERN MT / WRN ND...NEAR AND JUST W OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS / AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HEATING BENEATH MID-LEVEL LOW / COLD POOL. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NY / PA INTO THE NYC AREA...WHICH CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK...A COUPLE OF THE MORE POTENT STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL OR A LOCALLY STRONG GUST THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING BEFORE THUNDER THREAT WANES. ...HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO SWD ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN / OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO DRIFT SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS -- PARTICULARLY IF ANY ORGANIZED / SMALL-SCALE COLD POOLS COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CO / SRN WY -- SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED / PULSE IN NATURE. SOMEWHAT GREATER -- THOUGH STILL LIMITED -- SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP-LAYER VEERING / SHEAR IS INDICATED. THOUGH CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 00:33:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 19:33:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507100044.j6A0i5EB010208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100041 SWODY1 SPC AC 100040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 55 SE MOT 45 WSW BIS 40 S Y22 55 S Y22 15 ESE REJ 40 ESE GDV 10 ESE SDY 55 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB DHN MGR 25 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE RRT 35 NE FAR 25 WNW GRI 20 SSE GAG 50 NE ABI 55 E JCT 40 NE LRD 65 SSE LRD ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 25 WSW 4CR 25 ENE ALS 15 SSW 4FC 40 NW 4FC 40 SSE RWL 20 NNW RWL 10 E RIW 20 SW BPI 25 NE MLD 35 NW PIH 15 W 27U 25 SSE LWS 30 SW GEG 35 N 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE EWB BDL 30 NW RUT 35 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW GLS 50 SSW LFK 10 SW PRX 30 ESE MLC 25 SW UNO 30 SSW PAH 10 ESE TYS 10 NW CLT 25 WNW CRE 20 S CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND FL... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERATED ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN WITHIN HOT...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY HAS NOT ROOTED INTO THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN ND/NWRN SD PROBABLY GIVEN CINH IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOBS. UPSTREAM...SHORT BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE BECOME ALIGNED WITH STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AS ENHANCED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO CNTRL MT. ASIDE FROM ISOLD HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL MT TSTMS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CERTAIN FARTHER E. TSTMS MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK LEE-TROUGH/COLD FRONT NEAR THE MT/ND/CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND OVERNIGHT WITHIN AXIS OF INCREASING SLY LLJ. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK/SEVERE PROBS AS ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND FL... OFFICIAL TPC HRCN DENNIS TRACK CONTINUES A NWWD MOTION OFF THE FL W COAST OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WEAKLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME SPREADING NWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE ONSHORE...MINI-SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...FAR OUTER BAND OF STORMS MOVING NWWD THROUGH THE DEEP S MAY BE CAPABLE OF HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 05:37:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 00:37:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507100547.j6A5lrF6023056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100545 SWODY1 SPC AC 100543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 10 SE JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 15 NE ABY 10 SW VLD 15 WSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW INL 25 ESE FAR 40 NW HON 25 NNE CDR 35 SE 81V 55 NE 4BQ 50 N DIK 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 20 SSW AXN 30 WSW OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 20 SSE ABI 25 ESE SEP 40 ESE DAL 25 NW PRX 20 NW MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 30 NNW 4CR 45 W RTN 25 SSW COS 20 SW FCL 35 NW LAR 50 NNW RWL 25 W EVW 60 SSE BYI 40 N BOI 10 E LWS 20 S GEG 25 NNE EPH 45 WSW 4OM 55 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 25 NW LCI 10 NNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL-ERN GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP S... OFFICIAL NHC FCST OF HRCN DENNIS PROJECTS THE CENTER VCNTY MOBILE BAY LATE AFTN SUN...THEN INTO ERN MS BY 12Z MON. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE AS DENNIS TRANSLATES NWWD....WITH STRONGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LIKELY IN ERN MS...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL. LACK OF STRONGER WLYS IN THE MID-HIGH TROPOSPHERE MAY KEEP THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED MINI-SUPERCELLS LOW. FURTHERMORE...LACK OF ANY DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONES AND EXPANSIVE ENVELOPE OF DEEP MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS TRAVELLING WITH THE HRCN MAY MITIGATE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...THE ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO AS THE STRONGER RAINBANDS ROTATE ABOUT THE CENTER ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO ORE WILL GLANCE OFF THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...ULTIMATELY DEAMPLIFYING OVER ND AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUN NIGHT. WEAK FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA SWWD INTO CNTRL ND AND SRN MT THROUGH SUN AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST /DEW POINTS AOA 70F/ AND GIVEN STRONG HEATING...POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. INHIBITION MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERE COOLS SLIGHTLY ALONG PERIPHERY OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. THUS...TSTM INITIATION VCNTY THE FRONT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTN. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN MANITOBA FIRST...THEN EITHER BUILD SWD ALONG THE FRONT...OR DEVELOP SEPARATELY OVER ND. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER MT...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE EVENING FARTHER E. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE INITIAL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE GIVEN THAT THE ORE WAVE WILL BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MOISTEN UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN MT/NRN WY AS THE FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE IN ADVANCE OF THE ORE IMPULSE. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTN AND ISOLD STORMS MAY SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER SRN MT/NRN WY WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS THE H5 IMPULSE TRANSLATES NEWD AND LLJ INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUN. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN SD AND MUCH OF ND WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 12:39:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 07:39:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507101249.j6ACnikP019588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101247 SWODY1 SPC AC 101246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 N JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 40 NE MGR 45 WNW ORL 25 SSW FMY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RRT 15 SW FAR 20 E PIR 35 N CDR 81V 30 ENE 4BQ 25 NNW DIK 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 20 SSW AXN 30 WSW OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 20 SSE ABI 25 ESE SEP 40 ESE DAL 25 NW PRX 20 NW MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 30 NNW 4CR 45 W RTN 25 SSW COS 20 SW FCL 35 NW LAR 50 NNW RWL 25 W EVW 60 SSE BYI 40 N BOI 10 E LWS 20 S GEG 25 NNE EPH 45 WSW 4OM 55 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 25 NW LCI 10 NNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.... ...NE GULF COAST AREA... HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA FROM MOB TO PNS. AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SW GA/SRN AL. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE W COAST OF FL IN THE OUTER ERN BAND WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. THOUGH WINDS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE W COAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE BROKEN BAND OF DISCRETE STORMS AND 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 300 M2/S2. ...NRN PLAINS AREA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED EWD INTO CENTRAL ND AND NW SD. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONG CAP OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. EXPECT THE CAP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL LAG WEST OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 16:26:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 11:26:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507101637.j6AGbJSZ019541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101629 SWODY1 SPC AC 101628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT 40 N JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 40 NE MGR 45 WNW ORL 25 SSW FMY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W RRT GFK PIR CDR 55 S 81V 4BQ 25 NNW DIK 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25 W AXN 30 WSW OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 15 S ABI 25 ESE SEP 35 ESE DAL 20 WNW PRX MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB 25 NE PBG ...CONT... 30 S DMN 10 NNE TCS 35 NNW ONM 10 SSW SAF 35 SE ALS 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 15 ESE RKS 25 W EVW 25 S BYI 20 SW SUN 45 NNE BOI 25 SE BKE 25 WNW BKE 25 ESE PDT 25 ENE ALW 25 W PUW 25 WNW GEG 10 S 4OM 75 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PNS. LOCAL VAD PROFILER WINDS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN GA...MUCH OF AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TODAY DURING THE LANDFALL PHASE OF THE SYSTEM. SO FAR...DISCRETE CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN RARE EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF POTENTIALLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF DENNIS...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES LATER TODAY. THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MT/NORTHWEST WY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT. HOWEVER...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN POST-FRONTAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD/SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL/ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE...CENTRAL SD...AND EASTERN ND. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HI PLAINS... HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOCALLY REACHED...RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. ..HART/GUYER.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 19:56:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 14:56:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507102006.j6AK6tro015866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102003 SWODY1 SPC AC 102002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT JAN 30 SSW MEM 40 NNE TUP 15 NW GAD 20 NNE LGC 40 NNE MGR 40 NNW GNV 15 SSE SRQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RRT 15 N GFK 10 SE PIR CDR 55 S 81V 4BQ 50 WSW P24 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 10 NNE TCS 35 NNW ONM 10 SSW SAF 35 SE ALS 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 15 ESE RKS 25 W EVW 25 S BYI 20 SW SUN 45 NNE BOI 25 SE BKE 25 WNW BKE 25 ESE PDT 25 ENE ALW 25 W PUW 25 WNW GEG 10 S 4OM 75 NW 4OM ...CONT... INL 25 W AXN 25 ESE HLC 65 SW GAG 25 SSE CDS 55 SW SPS 20 SE SPS 15 NNW FSI 20 SSW END 10 W EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB 25 NE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS IS MAKING LANDFALL ATTM AT PENSACOLA BAY IN THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL / SRN GA HAVE SHOWN ROTATION AT TIMES...WITH AREA VWPS SHOWING LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION / TORNADOES. SOME HINTS OF DRIER AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SW ARE APPARENT ATTM. AS A RESULT...SOME LOCAL STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFTS -- COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GREATEST SHORT-TERM THREAT WOULD THUS APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE / WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN FL PENINSULA INTO SRN GA / SERN AL. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NNWWD...REACHING NERN MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TORNADO THREAT TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NWS ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND AL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE NRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EWD INTO CENTRAL ND ATTM...WITH MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INDICATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO IMMEDIATELY ALONG -- AND PERHAPS MORE LIKELY BEHIND -- COLD FRONT...WHERE PARCELS MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO REACH AN LFC. OVERNIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. ASSUMING STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- THOUGH NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG -- SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS TO EVOLVE. THOUGH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR STORM...GREATER THREAT MAY BE FOR HAIL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR WWD AS CENTRAL MT...AS STORMS INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD ENEWD WITH TIME. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN CO SWD INTO NM / W TX...WITHIN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG LEE TROUGH. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN GENERAL DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK FORCING...A SMALL STORM CLUSTER OR TWO COULD EVOLVE GIVEN DRY AIR / POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS. ..GOSS.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 00:23:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 19:23:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507110034.j6B0YFKP020752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110031 SWODY1 SPC AC 110029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE MOB 40 ESE MEI 15 ENE CBM 35 SSE MSL 10 E GAD 40 WNW MCN 35 NE MGR 10 W CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RRT 25 NNW GFK 40 SSE JMS 35 SSW ABR 20 SSE VTN 35 NNW LBF 40 N IML 30 W IML 25 NNE AKO 30 ENE CYS 40 SSE DGW 30 WNW DGW 50 NNE CPR 81V 15 WNW RAP 50 SE Y22 35 ESE P24 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 40 SW ROW 40 NE 4CR 30 NNE LVS 40 SW PUB 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 40 NE RKS 30 NW BPI 15 WSW IDA 40 SSW 27U 60 ENE S80 30 SE S06 55 WNW CTB ...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB 25 NE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRP 10 S AUS 45 ENE OKC 10 SE EMP 15 ENE MKC JEF 25 SSE CGI 20 W BWG 15 S LOZ 40 WSW GSO 40 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 50 NE ATY 25 S EAR 50 SW GAG 45 NE SJT 40 NW HDO 30 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...ERN GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP S... TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NW TOWARD NERN MS OVERNIGHT. EVENING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES AND GIVEN ENVELOPE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TRAVELING WITH THE SYSTEM...BUOYANCY HAS BEEN MINIMAL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO/ MINI-SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED... BUT NON-ZERO. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG AND A TORNADO/ CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR WITH THE RAINBANDS AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FL PNHDL...CNTRL/SRN GA...AND MUCH OF AL OVERNIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS... MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1004 MB LOW OVER NCNTRL SD WITH A TRAILING LEE-TROUGH SWWD TO THE NEB PNHDL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WINNIPEG THROUGH CNTRL ND...THEN INTO NRN WY. STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS CAP IS ERASED. APPROACH OF STRONG H5 IMPULSE FROM WY AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY AID IN INCREASING STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/ LEE-TROUGH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG/ WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT...GIVEN THE LARGELY PARALLEL COMPONENT OF THE 2-6KM SHEAR WITH RESPECT TO THE BOUNDARIES...TSTMS SHOULD GENERALLY EVOLVE INTO LINES QUICKLY. EWD MOTION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WITH SEVERE THREATS /DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/ REMAINING CONFINED TO CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF ND...CNTRL SD AND WRN NEB THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER W...TSTMS BENEATH THE WY IMPULSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS WY AND SERN MT TOWARD THE WRN DA'S THIS EVENING. STRONGER INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO ERN WY INTO WRN SD PER 00Z RAOBS...WITH MUCH LESS INSTABILITY OVER WY AND WRN ND. THUS...TSTMS MAY TEND TO INTENSIFY NEAR/N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN WY TOWARD KRAP WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACROSS SERN MT...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL NM BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES OF -10C HAVE CONGEALED INTO CLUSTERS ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. CLOVIS VWP SUGGESTS A 25 KT-6KM FLOW ATOP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDUCIVE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET. ..RACY.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 05:27:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 00:27:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507110537.j6B5btT6009037@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110536 SWODY1 SPC AC 110534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 0A8 20 WSW TUP 30 ESE JBR 30 E POF 20 SE MDH 30 WSW OWB 10 WNW BWG 20 WNW CSV 20 SSE CHA 15 ESE ANB 25 N MGM 20 WNW SEM 35 WSW 0A8. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LIC BFF 30 ESE CDR 20 SE MHN 20 NE MCK 60 N GCK 25 SSE EHA 30 SSW AMA 20 W LBB 30 NE HOB 40 SE ROW 35 NNE ROW 45 WSW CAO 25 S LHX 25 N LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 30 SW 4CR 55 WSW RTN 50 S 4FC 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 S Y22 10 SW BIS 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 45 ESE SUX 10 E RSL 25 NNW GAG 45 S CDS 40 WNW ABI 40 SW ABI 10 SE BWD SEP 15 NNW FTW 50 SW TUL 25 NE BVO 40 SSE OJC 30 NNW UIN 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP S...MID MS AND TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...DEEP S/MID MS VLY/TN VLY... REMNANTS OF DENNIS ARE PROGD TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER THE MID MS/LWR TN VLYS MONDAY...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND BUOYANCY SHOULD BE GREATER THAN DURING LANDFALL. THUS...TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS MON AFTN WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES TO THE E AND SE OF THE SURFACE LOW. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AL NWWD INTO MID-WRN TN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THAT REGION SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. TORNADO PROBABILITIES...WHICH ARE DRIVING THE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...REFLECT THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY OF THE REMNANT LOW. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE EARLY TODAY WITH AT LEAST A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH MON AFTN. ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /50S DEW POINTS/ AND HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH MINUS 8-10C H5 TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS CINH IS ERODED FROM SWRN SD INTO WRN NEB SWD TO ERN NM ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/TERRAIN. AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH EXPANDS...FLOW ABOVE THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TURN MORE N/NWLY AND INCREASE. MAGNITUDE OF BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER...A HIGHER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS SHOULD EXIST AND...THUS...INTRODUCTION OF THE SLGT RISK. INITIAL CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER AS STORMS PROPAGATE S/SEWD INTO WRN NEB...WRN KS...TX/OK PNHDLS AND ERN NM DURING THE EVENING. ...UPPER MS/MO RVR VLYS... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND MIGRATE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY MON EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE GIVEN SLACKENING FLOW ALOFT OVER ALL OF THE UPPER MS/MO RVR VLYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO MN...SERN SD...NEB IN WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE. LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME CINH DURING THE AFTN...PRIMARILY FROM SERN SD INTO MN. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ANY STORM THAT FORMS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE MULTICELL SPECTRUM. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT JET OVER NERN QUE ATTM WILL DIG SWD AND CROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES AOB -12C. THUS...BANDS OF FAST MOVING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON AFTN...LIKELY FAVORING THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM NH/ERN MA EWD. FAST UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS TO POSSIBLY BOW PRODUCING ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 12:42:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 07:42:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507111253.j6BCrMWu027373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111251 SWODY1 SPC AC 111248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAD 25 ESE MKL 40 NNE MKL 45 SE PAH 10 N HOP 25 SW BWG 10 WSW CSV 65 ESE CHA 30 WSW AHN 25 W MCN 15 E AUO 30 WNW LGC GAD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W AKO 30 SSE BFF 25 ESE AIA 20 S MHN 30 S LBF 50 SSE GLD 25 SSE EHA 40 SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 45 WSW CAO 25 S LHX 30 W AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 30 SW 4CR 55 WSW RTN 50 S 4FC 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 S Y22 10 SW BIS 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 45 ESE SUX 10 E RSL 25 NNW GAG 45 S CDS 40 WNW ABI 40 SW ABI 10 SE BWD SEP 15 NNW FTW 50 SW TUL 25 NE BVO 40 SSE OJC 30 NNW UIN 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.... ...TN VALLEY AREA TODAY... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM NRN MS TO THE MO BOOTHEEL/SRN IL BY LATE TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED NEAR THE WARM CORE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...WHILE SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED E/SE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER /ALONG THE ERN CONFLUENCE BAND/ WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND SURFACE HEATING GREATER. THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...50 KT SLY/SELY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES IN THE OUTER ERN BANDS TODAY. ...PLAINS AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT... ON THE LARGER SCALE...HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT/ND LIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...AND A CLOSED HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE MT/ND MID LEVEL TROUGH...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB/THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE AND A RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER WRN MN/ERN SD. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FATHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP BENEATH ROUGHLY 25 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO 1000-2000 J/KG AND WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SW NEB ACROSS ERN CO. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE IF CONVECTION CAN EVOLVE INTO A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS THIS EVENING. ...NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING... A BELT OF LOW-MID 60 DEWPOINTS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO VT/NH/ME WILL SAG SWD TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX ROTATES SSEWD FROM ERN QUEBEC...AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE 50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THIS AREA AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...A FEW SWD MOVING STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OR BOWING SEGMENTS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT ANY SEVERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 16:31:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 11:31:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507111642.j6BGgUap014576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111639 SWODY1 SPC AC 111638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 25 NE FCL BFF MHN LBF 40 SSE GLD EHA 40 SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 55 SSE RTN 10 S TAD DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CHA BNA BWG 50 WSW LOZ TYS AVL 45 WNW CAE 50 NE MCN LGC 30 NW LGC 40 W CHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR ...CONT... 35 NE IWD 45 ENE OMA 20 NE SLN 40 NE GAG 35 SE CDS 40 NNE ABI 20 WNW MWL 40 NNW FTW 25 SSE OKC 45 WSW CNU 25 WNW OJC 30 ENE IRK 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 30 NW ALM 40 N SAF 55 W COS 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 N PHP 30 SSE BIS 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...AL/GA/TN/SC/NC... REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DENNIS IS NOW ESE OF MEM...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS NEAR THE CENTER IS GREATLY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...WITH CLOUD CHARACTER AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT LITTLE DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF BROKEN CLOUDS EXISTS FROM EASTERN AL ACROSS GA/SC INTO EASTERN TN. THIS IS BENEATH LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OVER 300 J/KG/. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CSG...ATL... CHA...CSV. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE SHEAR. THREAT WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE AFTER DARK DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY OVER EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST NM...TRANSPORTING RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES...DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. DENVER CYCLONE MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP INTO EASTERN CO...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST KS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST NM. ...NORTHEAST STATES... CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 19:59:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 14:59:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507112009.j6BK9tFf023624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112007 SWODY1 SPC AC 112005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 25 NE FCL BFF MHN LBF 40 SSE GLD EHA 40 SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 55 SSE RTN 10 S TAD DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CHA BNA BWG 50 WSW LOZ TYS AVL 45 WNW CAE 70 N AYS 40 SE CSG 30 NW LGC 40 W CHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ELO 45 W HIB 55 E FAR 30 NE FAR 20 ENE GFK 55 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 NW ALM 40 N SAF 55 W COS 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 45 NW PIR 20 SW JMS 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 35 NE IWD 45 ENE OMA 20 NE SLN 40 NE GAG 35 SE CDS 40 NNE ABI 20 WNW MWL 40 NNW FTW 25 SSE OKC 45 WSW CNU 25 WNW OJC 30 ENE IRK 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NRN MN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HRCN DENNIS IS NEAR MKL /SWRN TN/. IMPRESSIVE BAND OF TROPICAL CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA SWD INTO WEST CENTRAL FL. MEANWHILE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN MN AS MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ...ERN TN VALLEY INTO GA... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE 30-40 KT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF DENNIS AND WLY 30-35 KT FLOW INDICATING MINIMAL SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. AIR MASS OVER THE AREAS WHERE THERE ARE FEEDER BANDS AT THIS TIME IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME AS WELL AS SOME DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN AREA OF MAXIMUM HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ME INTO VT/NH. INTERESTING HOW STORMS ARE MOVING SWD ON BACKSIDE OF LOW LOCATED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHERE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG. SERN AREAS OF ME HAVE COOLED FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY CREATING A BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID/UPR 80S WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 50S. THUS...STORMS CAN PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. ...NWRN/N CENTRAL MN... SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME SWRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS NWRN MN TO A LOW ALONG THE E CENTRAL ND/MN BORDER AT 18Z. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE FROM NWRN/N CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO ERN SD WHERE MLCAPE HAVE REACHED AROUND 3500 J/KG. THUS...HAVE ADDED SLGT RISK AREA HERE WHERE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE AROUND 8.5C/KM INDICATING THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO WHERE THERE IS ALSO 10-15 KT OF UPSLOPE FLOW MOSTLY IN E CENTRAL AND SERN CO. STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NERN NM...AND WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER SERN CO INTO E CENTRAL CO THRU EARLY TONIGHT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE 8.5 TO 9C/KM...THUS WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS THRU EARLY TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 00:36:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 19:36:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507120046.j6C0knut007754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120044 SWODY1 SPC AC 120042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SNY 20 E IML 55 S GLD 40 NW EHA 40 ENE TAD 15 S PUB 15 SSW DEN FCL 45 SSW BFF 40 ENE SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 NW ALM 40 N SAF 55 W COS 10 S LAR 55 SE DGW 45 NW CDR 35 WSW PIR 15 WNW ATY 25 ESE RRT ...CONT... 70 NW CMX 35 WNW EAU 30 N MCW 40 ENE OMA 25 WNW SLN 20 SW P28 25 ENE CSM 25 SE FSI 35 ESE MLC 40 S PBF 45 SW CBM 45 ENE MEI 10 SW LUL 15 SE ESF 15 N CLL 25 NNE SAT 25 W LRD ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 25 SSE CSG 30 SE RMG 30 S CSV 25 ESE OWB 30 NNW EVV 15 WSW HUF 15 ENE IND 35 SE LUK 10 NNW 5I3 15 SE PSK 10 WSW RDU 30 SW ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... A FEW TSTMS MANAGED TO FORM ALONG THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SWRN SD...NWRN NEB AND ERN CO THIS AFTN. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY/FOCUS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF ERN CO CELLS APPEAR TO BE ROTATING AMIDST 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AT RANDOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS/ INCREASING UPSLOPE FRONT RANGE FLOW CONTINUE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER ERN CO. TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER... BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z. ...SRN APPALACHIAN AREA... REMNANTS OF DENNIS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NWD VCNTY THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RVRS THIS EVENING. THERMAL BUOYANCY REMAINS LOW NEAR THE CORE...WITH MLCAPE AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG WELL SE OF THE REMNANT LOW ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN AREA. HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT TSTMS ALONG LOCAL BANDS OF CONVERGENCE. THESE BANDS APPEAR LARGELY DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING. ...MN... AXIS OF MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG WAS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NCNTRL-SWRN MN THIS AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WAS AOB 30 KTS...MAINTAINING GENERALLY MULTICELL STRUCTURE STORMS WITH PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT IMPROVE. AS SUCH...ASIDE FROM ISOLD SEVERE THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SWWD THROUGH MAINE IN ITS WAKE. GIVEN SUNSET AND WANING INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 05:24:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 00:24:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507120535.j6C5ZDSH027375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120532 SWODY1 SPC AC 120531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 35 NNW SAD 40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 25 S GCC 50 ENE 81V 45 S PHP 15 NE ANW 50 W YKN 45 SSE FAR 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 35 NW BML 15 E LCI ISP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DEEP S/CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS/OH VLY... DENNIS REMNANTS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE UP THE OH VLY TUE. WIND FIELDS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE A BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WRAPPING FROM THE DEEP S...THEN CYCLONICALLY ABOUT THE REMNANT LOW INTO THE OH VLY. GIVEN INFLUX OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...A LARGE PART OF THE SRN STATES NWD INTO THE OH VLY WILL BE UNSTABLE...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOCUSING ANY GIVEN AREA FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED SEVERE THREATS. ATTM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR WELL S-E OF THE LOW CENTER/CLOUDS...NAMELY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-OH VLY SWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE DEEP S. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP FROM MS TO THE CAROLINAS COULD TEND TO BOW IN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW OF 20-30 KTS. THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER N...LOW-LEVEL TURNING SHOULD BE STRONGER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO TSTM THREAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TUE. UPPER HIGH SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SWRN STATES WITH N-NELY H5 FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ON MONDAY...AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW/MOISTURE BOUNDARIES MOVING WWD TO THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TUE ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO TUE AFTN/EVE TSTM THREAT. PRIND THAT AT LEAST ISOLD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CO AND NM. H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN ON MONDAY...AROUND 25 KTS...BUT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY MULTICELLULAR...WITH PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS...SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 12:46:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 07:46:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507121256.j6CCudLP015124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121253 SWODY1 SPC AC 121251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 15 E LCI ISP ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 35 NNW SAD 40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 25 S GCC 50 ENE 81V 45 S PHP 15 NE ANW 50 W YKN 45 SSE FAR 35 ESE RRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS OVER CANADA. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS HAVE ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE ANALYSES REVEAL THAT THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES WELL S AND E OF THE REMNANT WARM CORE LOW. A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE 25-35 KT LOW-MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...AS WELL AS NEAR AND E OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 16:21:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 11:21:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507121632.j6CGWOYu021749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121630 SWODY1 SPC AC 121628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 65 WNW SAD 40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 15 SW GCC 35 SSW REJ 45 S PHP 15 SW ANW 50 NNE BUB 45 SSW FAR 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 15 SW RUT ISP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AL/GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... REMNANT LOW OF DENNIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION FROM MS/AL INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING TODAY...WHICH ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S...WILL PROVIDE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG/. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES DUE TO ANTICIPATED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF NY/NJ/PA AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHS ROTATE SOUTHWARD INTO REGION. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KNOTS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER FORCING EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 19:55:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 14:55:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507122006.j6CK6LXd031049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122004 SWODY1 SPC AC 122002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU SAD FMN CAG GCC 35 SSW REJ PHP ANW MHE 45 SSW FAR 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 30 N PBG EEN ISP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ON CONUS SCALE...UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY GREAT BASIN HIGH...ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEWD TOWARD S-CENTRAL CANADA...AND INLAND REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS. LATTER IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE -- CENTERED ATTM OVER SRN IL. CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ERRATICALLY ACROSS SRN IL/SRN INDIANA/NWRN KY REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS MUCH OF DIXIE TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW BELT...OVER THESE AREAS -- SRN WV/EXTREME WRN VA...ERN KY/ERN TN TO NRN AL...SWRN AR...NRN KS. EXPECT THESE TROUGHS TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CYCLONICALLY AROUND BROADER VORTEX. ...ERN NY... ISOLATED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING INVOF SFC TROUGH. ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY FORCED AND OCCURRING IN MERIDIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT TO LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... MULTICELL TSTMS -- WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS -- ARE EXPECTED IN A BROAD ARC AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS -- AIDED BY STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES GENERALLY IN 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL MESOBETA SCALE MODES OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITHIN THIS ARC -- NOTABLE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. IN NEAR TERM..REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1733 OVER PORTIONS KS/OK...AND 1734 ACROSS PORTIONS GA/AL/MS. ALTHOUGH TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST IN THIS ARC THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...EXPECT BOTH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK ONCE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS ERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...FROM BLACK HILLS SWD. INTENSE SFC HEATING AND MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS CREATING DEEP/LOW-RH SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUITABLE FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT WITH WEAK ABSOLUTE FLOWS AT MOST LEVELS LIMITING BOTH BULK SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION OF ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 05:27:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 00:27:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507130538.j6D5cQjI004429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130536 SWODY1 SPC AC 130535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GGW 55 SSW GGW 60 ESE LWT 10 N LVM 40 NNE BZN GTF 60 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 50 ESE PHX 30 WSW INW 55 N INW 70 SSW 4BL 25 SE 4BL 45 W EGE 25 WNW 4FC 35 S LAR 45 SW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 25 ESE COD 35 NW LND 15 SSE BPI 50 NNW VEL 15 SE PUC 25 NW 4HV 40 WSW 4HV 25 E BCE 10 SW BCE 25 WNW BCE 40 ENE MLF 40 S SLC OGD 25 SSE MLD 25 WSW PIH 35 E BOI 65 E BKE S80 20 SE S06 25 NW 3TH 20 NW GEG 25 N EAT 50 NE SEA 20 E BLI ...CONT... 55 N DVL 40 ESE P24 25 ESE REJ 25 NW CDR 35 SSE AIA 30 NW MCK 20 NW HLC 20 SSW CNK 15 SW BIE 35 SSE SUX 20 S MKT 65 N EAU 35 S CMX ...CONT... 20 S HUL BGR 20 NNE PWM 15 SE EEN 20 NNE BDR 25 E ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MT... ...MT... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WED AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESPOND AND LIKELY ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS WWD INTO CNTRL MT...MAINTAINING THE LOW-MID 50S DEW POINTS ALREADY OBSERVED. THE BACKED NATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH STRENGTHENING SWLY H5 FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM OVER SWRN MT BY EARLY AFTN AND STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE NEWD TOWARD CNTRL MT. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS COULD BEGIN TO ROOT INTO A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF CNTRL MT LATE IN THE AFTN/EVE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. BY THEN...STORM STRUCTURE MAY EVOLVE INTO BOWS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREATS. FARTHER E...PROSPECTS FOR TSTM INITIATION APPEAR LOWER GIVEN STRONGER CAP OVER SCNTRL/SERN MT. BUT...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP EWD FROM CNTRL MT INTO NERN/ECNTRL MT AND PERHAPS NWRN ND AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD AND A 40 KT SLY LLJ DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ...SERN STATES... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES ROTATING AROUND THE OH VLY LOW. DESPITE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...STRONG HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG OVER A RATHER LARGE AREA OF THE SE ON WED. MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE WITHIN A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED H85-H5 WLY FLOW FROM PARTS OF MS EWD INTO AL...GA AND PERHAPS THE CAROLINAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREATS. FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVE. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 12:27:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 07:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507131237.j6DCbiSE016601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131235 SWODY1 SPC AC 131233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 10 S SDY 45 WNW MLS 20 NNE BIL 10 N LVM 35 N BZN 10 S GTF 60 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 50 ESE PHX 30 WSW INW 55 N INW 70 SSW 4BL 25 SE 4BL 50 W EGE 35 NNE EGE 35 S LAR 45 SW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 20 NNW RIW 45 ESE BPI 35 SW RKS 15 SE PUC 25 NW 4HV 40 WSW 4HV 25 E BCE 10 SW BCE 25 WNW BCE 40 ENE MLF 40 S SLC OGD 25 SSE MLD 25 WSW PIH 35 E BOI 65 E BKE S80 20 SE S06 25 NW 3TH 20 NW GEG 25 N EAT 50 NE SEA 20 E BLI ...CONT... 55 N DVL 40 ESE P24 25 ESE REJ 25 NW CDR 35 SSE AIA 30 NW MCK 20 NW HLC 20 SSW CNK 15 SW BIE 35 SSE SUX 20 S MKT 65 N EAU 35 S CMX ...CONT... 20 S HUL BGR 20 NNE PWM 15 SE EEN 20 NW GON 30 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT.... ...MT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TO WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...AND CENTRAL/ERN MT TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A COLD FRONT AND LEE CYCLONE WILL ALSO MOVE EWD ACROSS MT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WHILE A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME IS OVERSPREADING MT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY W OF THE FRONT WHERE THE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST. MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXED LAYERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS BOW ECHOES. ...INTERIOR GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON... A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FROM E TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND NWD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO PA/WRN NY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 16:08:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 11:08:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507131619.j6DGJJwj022900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131610 SWODY1 SPC AC 131609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS BIL 30 N LVM 30 E HLN GTF 60 NW HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK RUT GFL UCA 20 S ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 25 E MBG 20 SE PHP 30 S MHN 45 SW HLC 20 S RSL 10 SE YKN 15 E DLH ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW 75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE U24 OGD 40 S TWF 20 NE OWY 65 E BKE 50 NNE S80 40 ESE GEG 20 NW GEG 50 NE SEA 20 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MVN 25 ENE CKV 45 NNW CSV 20 NE LOZ 15 NW HTS 35 NNE DAY 15 NNW LAF 45 ENE MVN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NRN NY/VT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN MT AND FAR NWRN ND... ...NY/VT AREA... ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS MOVING SEWD FROM SERN QUEBEC INTO NRN NY THIS MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED MUCAPES 1000 TO 1500 J/KG FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN NY...DUE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT/TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH NY. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...20-25 KT...VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY/VT WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. STRONGER STORMS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL EARLY/MID EVENING...THEN WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. ...MT AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ACROSS MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN MT...WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MT AND INTO NRN ND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH NEARS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ACROSS ERN MT... SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF BOW ECHOES. ...TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SERN INDIANA SWWD ACROSS SRN AR INTO NRN TX. NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO GA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES IN AREA OF WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK OVER THIS AREA...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS A SEVERE HAILSTONE OR TWO. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 19:57:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 14:57:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507132007.j6DK7hjF012077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132004 SWODY1 SPC AC 132003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS 50 SSE BIL 15 NNE MQM 45 WSW BTM 20 E GTF 55 NE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK BTV 20 S SLK 35 ESE ART 20 S ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW 75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE U24 OGD 40 S TWF 20 NE OWY 65 E BKE 50 NNE S80 40 ESE GEG 20 NW GEG 30 WSW 63S 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 ESE REJ 15 ENE CDR 35 WNW IML 45 SW HLC 20 S RSL 20 NNE FRM 45 NNE IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MVN 45 ENE DYR 45 NNW CSV 20 NE LOZ 40 WSW HTS 40 N DAY 25 NW HUF 20 WSW MVN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NERN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY QUASISTATIONARY/HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN ACROSS NRN PLAINS...AND BY BROAD DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY OVER LOWER OH VALLEY. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC NW AND SRN BC -- IS FCST TO REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL-SWRN SASK INTO NWRN MT -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MOST OF MT TONIGHT AND INTO NWRN ND. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONTAL ZONE OVER SWRN QUE AND SRN ONT WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD NRN UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ...NERN NY...NEW ENGLAND... UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS QUE AND ONT INDICATED ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER PLUME WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION -- SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE BASED ON WARNING INFO FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA -- ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN QUE. EXPECT ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES TO SHIFT SEWD/SWD INTO OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT...CONCURRENT WITH INCREASE IN 850 MB FLOW TO 20-30 KT SWLYS. STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SUPPRESSED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TIME BEGIN ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE CANADIAN ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO MCS AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR BORDER TONIGHT...CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED THERE..WITH MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FARTHER S. ...MT... SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL MT AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AMIDST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AS EVIDENT IN VWP FROM BIL AREA. HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1741 AND 1742 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN OVERALL EWD SHIFT. AFTER ABOUT 14/03Z...DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING NWRN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF 35-45 KT LLJ...WHICH IN TURN WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND MOIST/WARM ADVECTION TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL MCS OVER SOME OF ERN MT AND WRN ND. ...S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS...N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 FOR NOWCAST INFO OVER ERN NC. MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SFC-BASED DIABATIC HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS BROAD SWATH FROM PA THROUGH ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO CENTRAL TX. DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WEAKNESSES IN BOTH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 00:50:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 19:50:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507140102.j6E12SYl030810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140100 SWODY1 SPC AC 140059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS 50 SSE BIL 15 NNE MQM DLN 40 WNW LWT 70 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW 75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE U24 OGD 35 S BYI 30 W SUN 45 WNW 27U 20 NW 3DU 10 WSW FCA 50 NNE FCA ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 15 S REJ 40 NNE CDR 30 SSE SNY 55 N GCK 15 NE P28 35 NW LIT 25 WSW UOX 40 ESE CHA 35 NE HKY 45 SE PKB 30 WSW MFD 10 WSW IND 20 SW DNV 15 ESE CGX 25 SSE LNR 20 NNW VOK 20 E AUW 35 SSW OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND NERN MT THROUGH NWRN ND... ...MT THROUGH NWRN ND... EARLY THIS EVENING HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE FROM CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL MT. DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40+ F WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS SPREAD NEWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM NERN MT INTO NWRN ND AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SWLY EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40 TO 50 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. GLASGOW 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO PERSIST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT AND INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE FROM ERN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN ND. ...NRN NY AND VT... STORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO EXTREME NRN NY NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 05:47:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 00:47:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507140559.j6E5wxWn017251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140556 SWODY1 SPC AC 140555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ELO 35 NE AXN 15 ENE ATY 20 W HON 30 NW PIR 40 E Y22 70 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 25 E LCI 20 NE POU 10 WNW MSV 15 ENE ITH 30 NNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NW CMX 25 SW OTG 40 SW YKN 30 SE BBW 20 NW GLD 10 S LAA 35 SW LBL 30 S LBL 40 NW P28 15 ESE OMA 10 ESE RST 20 WSW CWA 25 NNE MBL 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 80 S GBN 25 SE PHX 10 WNW PRC 40 NE IGM 15 SSW CDC MLF 50 NNW MLF 55 ENE ELY 55 SE EKO 40 S BAM WMC 40 SW OWY 40 ESE OWY 45 N ENV 45 W OGD 10 N OGD 40 N EVW 25 WSW COD 30 SE BIL 15 NNW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 25 SSE SDY 60 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND A WEAK BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH MT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH ND ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WHILE A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NERN STATES. ...NERN STATES... POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY DELAY SURFACE HEATING UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ONCE SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NE OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. A WEAK CAP AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NY NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS FEW SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA AND ND. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. PRIMARY FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NWD INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY. THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAP SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE CAP. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION. POTENTIAL FOR LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...SRN STATES.... POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE SERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 12:21:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 07:21:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507141233.j6ECXhdF014795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141230 SWODY1 SPC AC 141229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUL 30 NE LCI 20 NW EEN ALB 10 WSW UCA 30 NNW SYR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 60 W AXN 35 E PIR 30 NNE PHP 65 SSE Y22 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NW CMX 25 SW OTG 40 SW YKN 30 SE BBW 20 NW GLD 10 S LAA 35 SW LBL 30 S LBL 40 NW P28 15 ESE OMA 10 ESE RST 20 WSW CWA 25 NNE MBL 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 80 S GBN 25 SE PHX 10 WNW PRC 40 NE IGM 15 SSW CDC MLF 50 NNW MLF ELY 60 ESE U31 25 NNW U31 15 SSW WMC 50 NNE BAM 45 NNE EKO 30 NNE ENV 30 W OGD 15 ENE OGD 30 S RKS 60 E JAC 40 N WRL 10 W 4BQ 35 NE MLS 25 ESE OLF 65 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL SD/ERN ND/NW MN.... ...UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND THIS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAINFALL AND MOIST PROFILES WILL TEND TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. ...NRN PLAINS AREA... OUTFLOW WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL ND AND NW SD...WELL E OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW ND AND ERN MT. THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY MIDDAY ACROSS ND AS A WEAK LEAD SPEED MAX EJECTS ENEWD AND AWAY FROM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND AND CENTRAL SD AS DAYTIME HEATING AND ASCENT REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM MT. MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC/SE/GULF STATES TODAY... AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS OVER KY...WSWWD TO A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER OVER OK/NW TX. LARGELY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN A BROAD BAND NEAR AND E/SE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FROM TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND NWD ACROSS THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA AND THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 16:23:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 11:23:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507141635.j6EGZXo7028071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141633 SWODY1 SPC AC 141632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUL 25 WSW PWM 15 W ORH 40 SW ALB 10 WSW UCA 30 NNW SYR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 60 W AXN 35 E PIR 30 NNE PHP 65 SSE Y22 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 65 SW PRC 45 N IGM 35 SW P38 30 NW DRA 30 S BIH 40 WSW BIH 50 WNW TVL 30 SSW SVE 45 NNE EKO 30 NNE ENV 40 ENE EVW 50 S COD 50 ENE 4BQ 60 NNW MOT ...CONT... 30 NW MQT 40 N SUX 20 WSW LHX 35 SW CAO 45 S DHT 25 WNW CSM END 25 SW TOP 40 SSW MBL 20 WNW APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NERN NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN.... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING PATTERN ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE U.S WITH LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED ON THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS HAS FORCED THE MAIN STORM TRACK ALONG THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER AND SRN QUEBEC INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALSO LEFT A LARGE ELONGATED TROUGH /MUCH OF THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS/ FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD THRU TX. ...NERN NY STATE INTO ME... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC INTO THE NERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIE ALONG WRN SECTIONS INTO NERN NY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING JUST S OF E ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NY...HOWEVER WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG TO SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LAPSE RATES COULD BE AROUND 8C/KM. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE AFTER MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NERN NY STATE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ME. ...PARTS OF THE ERN NRN PLAINS INTO NWRN MN... LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL ND SWWD ACROSS NWRN SD INTO CENTRAL WY. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SOME WITH LIMITED HEATING TODAY INHIBITED SLIGHTLY BY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ND AT THIS TIME. SBCAPE EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN MN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 8C/KM INDICATING THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NERN ND/NWRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN MANITOBA RAISES DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO NEAR 50 KT ACROSS THE AREA. ...GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND OH/TN VALLEYS... TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM DENNIS REMAINS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES TROPICAL REGIME. ..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 05:05:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 00:05:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507150516.j6F5Gs8u011366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150515 SWODY1 SPC AC 150513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DGW 20 NNW 81V 25 WNW REJ 60 ESE REJ 45 WNW VTN 45 E SNY AKO 20 NNW DEN 40 SE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW RWL 35 WNW WRL 35 WSW COD 50 NNE BPI 50 ENE EVW 35 E VEL CAG 45 NE CAG 20 NNW RWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PVW 55 W CSM 15 NNE BVO 55 NNE JLN 20 ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NW PVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S GBN 30 SSE PHX 15 NNW PHX 45 WNW PHX 75 SE EED 30 ESE EED 30 S LAS 40 NNW DRA 55 SSW TPH 45 N NID 15 SSW NID 30 N RAL 15 NNW RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 N OXR 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 45 N BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 SE INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CO THROUGH WY AND WRN SD AND NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. AND A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE EAST. STRONGER BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN NEAR U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL CONTINUE ENEWD WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT FRIDAY NIGHT. NRN PART OF COLD FRONT NOW FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD INTO CNTRL MN. SWRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL AND MAY BEGIN MOVING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH WRN SD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. ...WRN SD...ERN WY...NERN CO AND WRN NEB... ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF AND S OF SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN CO NWD THROUGH ERN WY AND WRN SD. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL FAVOR BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S PERSISTING OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD AS SURFACE HEATING ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD AND MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY 20 TO 25 KT AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN SD... DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST CONVERGENCE...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM MN SWWD THROUGH SD AS SURFACE HEATING PROMOTES DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING CAP. WITH THE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS REMAINING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...CNTRL MT... INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WRN THROUGH CNTRL MT ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY WILL BE AT A MAXIMUM...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 12:21:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 07:21:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507151233.j6FCXLbC018158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151230 SWODY1 SPC AC 151228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DGW 20 NNW 81V 25 WNW REJ 60 ESE REJ 45 WNW VTN 45 E SNY AKO 20 NNW DEN 40 SE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 SE INL ...CONT... 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL 55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL ...CONT... 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW 25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 15 WNW END 25 N BVO 55 NNE JLN 20 ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NNE CVS ...CONT... 75 S GBN 30 SSE PHX 15 NNW PHX 45 WNW PHX 75 SE EED 30 ESE EED 30 S LAS 35 S DRA 50 SW DRA 30 ENE NID 20 SE NID 30 N RAL 15 NNW RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 N OXR 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD AS FAIRLY STRONG UPR LOW NOW OFF THE BC CST PROGRESSES E/SE TO THE BC/AB BORDER. FARTHER E...WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM MI TO TX. SHALLOW NRN PLNS COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN OVER MN/SE SD AND NEB. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE SHAPE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT OVER ID/MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO UPR SYSTEM CROSSING BC. ...ERN WY/ERN CO/WRN NEB/WRN SD... LIGHT ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SE INTO CNTRL NEB. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLAINS. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MEAN AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER ERN WY/NRN CO/WRN NEB AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE PROMOTED BY UPR IMPULSE APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY NOW CROSSING WY...ALTHOUGH FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE MOVED BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS BY PEAK HEATING. AT ANY RATE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP E/SEWD. PROXIMITY OF UPR RIDGE WILL KEEP DEEP NNWLY SHEAR QUITE MODEST /AOB 30 KTS/...AND SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE/DEGREE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN SD/MN/WRN WI SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF WEAKENING DEEP SHEAR/CONVERGENCE FROM MN SWWD INTO SD AS SURFACE HEATING BREAKS CAP. MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT WEAKNESS OF SHEAR AND ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/SEVERITY. ...E CNTRL/SE AZ... FAIRLY DEEP ENELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SRN FRINGE OF UT HIGH. THIS WILL FAVOR WSW MOVEMENT OF STORMS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE ERN RIM COUNTRY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER REGION ...A FEW FORWARD-PROPAGATING CELLS COULD YIELD STRONG LOCAL GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...WRN/CNTRL MT TONIGHT... A FEW STORMS COULD FORM TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY OVER WRN AND CNTRL MT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING BC TROUGH. UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD CONFINE ANY SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS MID LEVEL WSW FLOW INCREASES TO AOA 50 KTS. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 16:11:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 11:11:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507151623.j6FGNcnj016574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151615 SWODY1 SPC AC 151613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 20 ESE GBN 30 W PHX 55 SSW PRC 65 ENE BLH 60 WSW EED 20 S DAG 25 N RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 SE INL ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL 55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW 25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 15 WNW END 25 N BVO 55 NNE JLN 20 ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NNE CVS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND RIDGE VICINITY E COAST...A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTS FROM GREAT LAKES SWWD TO TX. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PAC NW INTO WRN MT BY END OF PERIOD. MUCH OF CONUS IS UNDER A RATHER WEAK FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO ERN SD. THERE IS ALSO WEAK UPSLOPE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF SHALLOW SURFACE HIGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ND/WRN SD. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL DAMPEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE SELY UPSLOPE SUPPORTS A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN WY INTO MT THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT ALONG WITH THE CAPPING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS DEVELOPING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE REDUCED SEVERE THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS REACHING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN. ...UPPER MS VALLEY ... WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MN INTO ERN SD WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS ALSO RATHER WEAK...SUPPORTING PRIMARILY A PULSE SEVERE THREAT. ...AZ... ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE SRN AZ AS NOTED ON SURFACE DEWPOINT CHANGES AS WELL AS THE GPS PWV DATA FROM AZ AND SONORA. WITH ELY STEERING FLOW AROUND UPPER HIGH TO THE N...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP VICINITY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...TO THEN PROPAGATE INTO SURROUNDING DESERT VALLEYS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR DOWNBURST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 19:55:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 14:55:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507152007.j6FK70Gl026029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152004 SWODY1 SPC AC 152002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 20 ESE GBN 30 W PHX 55 SSW PRC 65 ENE BLH 60 WSW EED 20 S DAG 25 N RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 30 E INL ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL 55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW 25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 25 WNW END 30 SSW ICT 10 SSW EMP MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SSW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NNE CVS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE PAC NW TO SRN AND ERN CANADA. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. WILL PREVAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN SD/NERN NEB... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MN SWWD INTO ERN SD AND NRN NEB...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ REINFORCED LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING FROM NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL MN. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA EXTENDED INTO NRN MN...AND WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FARTHER S/SW ACROSS SRN MN/ERN SD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FORECAST WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS NERN MN INTO NRN WI WHERE SHEAR/CAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN MN AND EXTREME NWRN WI...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WY...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WY/WRN SD SWD INTO CO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION. WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE MULTICELLS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN MT TO ERN CO WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. ...AZ... ENELY STEERING FLOW AROUND UPPER HIGH TO THE N WILL SUPPORT A TENDENCY FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS TO PROPAGATE INTO SURROUNDING DESERT VALLEYS. VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AZ INTO FAR SWRN NM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING INTO THE VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES... LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH/REMNANTS OF DENNIS...WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO TX. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND/OR NEAR WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 00:48:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 19:48:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507160100.j6G10avR029014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160058 SWODY1 SPC AC 160057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 30 WNW GBN 70 ENE BLH 30 ESE EED 60 WSW EED 15 SE DAG 20 NNE RAL 30 NNW LAX 40 SSW BFL 25 NNW BFL FAT 30 ENE SCK 50 WNW TVL 35 NE RNO 30 NNW WMC 55 SE BNO 35 NNE BKE GEG 35 NNW 63S ...CONT... 75 NE ISN 10 ESE ISN 55 SW DIK 20 WNW PHP 9V9 35 SE FAR 30 E INL ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 15 NE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 WSW LBB 45 ESE LBB 35 W CSM 25 E END 20 E JLN 30 ENE VOK 30 E EAU 10 NNW MKT 25 E OFK 30 S MCK 55 ENE LAA 45 NE CAO 30 NNE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE DGW 40 NW GCC 45 NE COD 50 ENE JAC 35 SSE BPI 35 NE VEL 45 E CAG 40 NNE LAR 50 NNE DGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN CO... THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. ...TX THROUGH SERN STATES... THE THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MULTICELL STORMS FROM TX EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ... NRN NEB THROUGH SERN SD AND SWRN MN... THIS EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NRN NEB NEWD THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL MN. ISOLATED STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN MN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS GRADUALLY DECREASING. ...MT... INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NERN MN OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT 00Z RAOB FROM GLASGOW SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAGER CAPE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 05:36:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 00:36:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507160548.j6G5mMTM005023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160546 SWODY1 SPC AC 160544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 35 WNW PHP 30 WNW RAP 45 WSW REJ 35 ENE SHR 35 NNW SHR 45 NE BIL 20 S GGW 70 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC 50 NE IGM 20 SW SGU 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 15 S RNO 25 NE OWY 80 NE BOI 25 NNW S80 40 WSW GEG 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 20 WNW INL 45 N ATY 25 N LBF 20 SSW IML 20 W AMA 40 WNW CDS 10 SE LTS 40 N ADM 45 SW JLN 35 ENE SZL 45 ESE FOD 25 E MKT 65 NW EAU 120 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 10 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...ERN MT THROUGH NWRN SD AND MUCH OF ND... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS MT SATURDAY. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ENEWD INTO SRN CANADA EARLY IN THE DAY AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO ERN MT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX WILL MOVE EWD WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH MT AND ND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW RESIDING FROM SD INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ADVECTING NWD UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH ND AND EXTREME ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS PROMOTING A STRONG CAP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS COULD SERVE AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION ON FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER FORCING ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET LIFT NWD INTO CANADA. BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BE AROUND PEAK HEATING OVER NRN ND WHERE STRONGEST FORCING ALONG FRONT IS EXPECTED. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT...STRONG VERTICAL HEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...OTHER STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE CAP. CAPE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ERN MT AND ND. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 12:42:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 07:42:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507161254.j6GCsTJ4024519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161252 SWODY1 SPC AC 161250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S BIS 35 NW PHP 45 ESE 81V 35 NNW 81V 35 NNE COD 25 SSE 3HT 20 SSW GGW 70 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 10 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 15 NW TVL 25 NE OWY 80 NE BOI 25 NNW S80 40 WSW GEG 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW COU 30 SW JLN 30 SSE END 40 NW CDS 25 WNW AMA 20 S IML 30 SE ANW 20 SE YKN 30 E DSM 35 WNW COU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW NEARING THE BC/AB BORDER SHOULD AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS JET MAX NOW ENTERING WRN WA/ORE /PER WATER VAPOR/ CONTINUES E/SEWD. LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB LOW LIKELY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS NRN MT/SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN RCKYS IN RESPONSE TO WA/ORE SPEED MAX. BY 12Z SUNDAY EXPECT THAT OVERALL SYSTEM WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A FAIRLY STRONG POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN MB SW INTO WRN WY/ERN ID. ELSEWHERE...RIDGES WILL PERSIST INVOF THE 4 CORNERS AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. AT LWR LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER SE MT. THE LATTER LOW SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS ND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. ...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE DAKS... AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF LEAD NRN RCKYS IMPULSE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS OVER ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDDAY AS LLJ READJUSTS W IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF WA/ORE SPEED MAX. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. BOUNDARY LAYER NOW OVER SD AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY SHOULD SPREAD N/NW INTO ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BENEATH STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ADVECTED NE OFF THE RCKYS. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF ND/FAR ERN MT AND NW SD BY MID AFTERNOON ...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE EML WILL... HOWEVER...MAINTAIN A STRONG CAP OVER REGION AND LIMIT SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS FARTHER NE INTO CANADA. NEVERTHELESS...FORCED UPLIFT ALONG STALLING SURFACE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OVER NRN ND. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN THIS AREA...40+ KT DEEP SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF STORMS THIS PERIOD WILL DEVELOP IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/ERN MT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WA/ORE DISTURBANCE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SQUALL LINES THAT MOVE E INTO ND/NW SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ...UPR MS VLY... SCATTERED...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN SD/MN AND NRN IA. PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND MODEST SHEAR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS THAT BRIEFLY ROTATE..POSING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL. ...SE AZ... STLT DATA INDICATE THAT ERN AZ/WRN NM AREA HAS MOISTENED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF 4 CORNERS RIDGE SHOULD FAVOR NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER REGION. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 13:04:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 08:04:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507161316.j6GDGIfY031768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161313 SWODY1 SPC AC 161311 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S BIS 35 NW PHP 45 ESE 81V 35 NNW 81V 35 NNE COD 25 SSE 3HT 20 SSW GGW 70 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 10 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 15 NW TVL 25 NE OWY 80 NE BOI 25 NNW S80 40 WSW GEG 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DSM 20 SE YKN 30 SE ANW 20 S IML 25 WNW AMA 40 NW CDS 30 SSE END 30 SW JLN 35 WNW COU 30 E DSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR BACKWARD GEN TSTM LINE OVER CENTRAL CONUS ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW NEARING THE BC/AB BORDER SHOULD AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS JET MAX NOW ENTERING WRN WA/ORE /PER WATER VAPOR/ CONTINUES E/SEWD. LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB LOW LIKELY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS NRN MT/SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN RCKYS IN RESPONSE TO WA/ORE SPEED MAX. BY 12Z SUNDAY EXPECT THAT OVERALL SYSTEM WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A FAIRLY STRONG POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN MB SW INTO WRN WY/ERN ID. ELSEWHERE...RIDGES WILL PERSIST INVOF THE 4 CORNERS AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. AT LWR LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER SE MT. THE LATTER LOW SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS ND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. ...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE DAKS... AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF LEAD NRN RCKYS IMPULSE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS OVER ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDDAY AS LLJ READJUSTS W IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF WA/ORE SPEED MAX. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. BOUNDARY LAYER NOW OVER SD AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY SHOULD SPREAD N/NW INTO ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BENEATH STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ADVECTED NE OFF THE RCKYS. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF ND/FAR ERN MT AND NW SD BY MID AFTERNOON ...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE EML WILL... HOWEVER...MAINTAIN A STRONG CAP OVER REGION AND LIMIT SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS FARTHER NE INTO CANADA. NEVERTHELESS...FORCED UPLIFT ALONG STALLING SURFACE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OVER NRN ND. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN THIS AREA...40+ KT DEEP SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF STORMS THIS PERIOD WILL DEVELOP IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/ERN MT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WA/ORE DISTURBANCE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SQUALL LINES THAT MOVE E INTO ND/NW SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ...UPR MS VLY... SCATTERED...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN SD/MN AND NRN IA. PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND MODEST SHEAR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS THAT BRIEFLY ROTATE..POSING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL. ...SE AZ... STLT DATA INDICATE THAT ERN AZ/WRN NM AREA HAS MOISTENED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF 4 CORNERS RIDGE SHOULD FAVOR NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER REGION. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ..CORFIDI.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 16:19:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 11:19:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507161631.j6GGVCM1029183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161618 SWODY1 SPC AC 161617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S BIS 35 NW PHP 45 ENE 81V 30 NE SHR 50 E BIL 55 S GGW 20 ESE GGW 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 20 SE EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 10 WNW TVL OWY 80 NE BOI S80 40 SW GEG 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30 N OFK 30 NNW BBW IML 45 NW EHA 40 NNW TCC TCC 50 NW CDS 30 SW JLN 10 NE SZL OMA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... IMPRESSIVE MID-SUMMER TROUGH MOVING THRU PAC NW FORECASTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. LEAD S/WV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WRN ND. TRAILING 60PLUS KT 500MB JET MAX WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND ERN MT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE HEATING. WITH THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING EWD...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG MUCH OF AFTERNOON INTO WRN DAKOTAS/ERN MT. HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AOA 100F INTO WRN PORTIONS OF DAKOTAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CAP WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION. ACROSS ERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DRY LOWER LEVELS...REDUCING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER E ACROSS ND THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG BUT THE CAP WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE UNTIL THIS EVENING. CURRENT ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS LEAD IMPULSE MOVES NEWD INTO SRN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ERN MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN UP TO 60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DURING THE EVENING ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO ND WHERE A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS MOSTLY ND NWD INTO SRN CANADA CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ...SERN AZ... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LIMITED FOR ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR BRIEF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND TRY TO PROPAGATE INTO ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS THIS EVENING PRIOR TO DISSIPATING IN THE MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORM COULD SPREAD ACROSS DESERT VALLEYS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 19:54:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 14:54:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507162005.j6GK5uM6031672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162003 SWODY1 SPC AC 162001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT ABR 35 NW PHP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNW SHR 50 E BIL 55 S GGW 20 ESE GGW 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 20 SE EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 10 WNW TVL OWY 80 NE BOI S80 40 SW GEG 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30 N OFK 30 NNW BBW IML 45 NW EHA 40 NNW TCC TCC 50 NW CDS 30 SW JLN 30 W SZL OMA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VORTICITY MAX MOVING ESEWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN BC. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 17/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER EXTREME NERN MT WILL DEVELOP INTO NWRN ND THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO SRN MANITOBA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REACHING AN ERN ND/NORTH CENTRAL NEB/NERN CO LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS SRN ND THEN NWWD INTO THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH TONIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS... ELEVATED CONVECTION ORIGINATING ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS NERN MT AND ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS INTO ERN SD AND CENTRAL/SRN MN IS SPREADING NWWD INTO EXTREME ERN MT...ND AND NRN MN WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S IN ERN MT AND THE 65-70F RANGE IN ND AND NRN MN. A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM) ATOP A CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 850 MB IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG OVER WRN AND SRN ND. THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER NERN WY/SERN MT INTO SD IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEEDING 100F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARMING COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF ERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT...NWRN SD AND WRN ND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ND AND WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE DAKOTAS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION TOWARD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN SD AND ND BEFORE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...AZ/NM... A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN NM WWD INTO PARTS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ. THESE STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWWD WITHIN A BAND OF 20 KT NELY MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN AZ. PRESENCE OF DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 05:00:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 00:00:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507170512.j6H5CK0h031904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170509 SWODY1 SPC AC 170508 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM 10 NNW OJC 10 NNW ICT 15 ENE LBL 35 SSW LHX 45 WNW COS 15 ENE 4FC 30 SW AKO 45 SW IML 30 E LBF 35 SE MHE 25 NE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 SW ABI 15 SSW SPS 30 ESE OKC 20 SSE TUL 40 ENE TUL 30 WSW UMN 10 NNE STL 10 NNW CMI 35 NNW PIA 30 NNE SZL 20 W CNU 30 SSE P28 65 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 60 NW GBN 45 WNW PRC 50 NNW GCN 20 NW U17 15 WSW GJT 35 SE CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 45 NNW MBG 60 NNW REJ 35 W GDV 65 NNE GGW ...CONT... 40 WNW 3B1 25 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WELL AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF ND AND PERHAPS NWRN MN...INVOF COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS SHOULD THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING SWD ALONG FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE ZONE ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT...AS CAPPING WITHIN WARM SECTOR SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY TRUE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE FRONT SHOULD MOVE MOST RAPIDLY EWD. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FROM ERN CO NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION -- AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE 25% HAIL PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN TANDEM WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ..GOSS.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 12:27:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 07:27:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507171239.j6HCdK8k012571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171237 SWODY1 SPC AC 171235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM 10 NNW OJC 10 NNW ICT 25 SE LBL 20 WNW CAO 50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 30 NNW LIC 45 NW GLD 30 E LBF 35 SE MHE 25 NE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW 3B1 25 NE PWM ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 SW ABI 15 SSW SPS 30 ESE OKC 20 SSE TUL 40 ENE TUL 35 NNW UNO STL 10 NNW CMI 35 NNW PIA 55 NW COU 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 60 WSW GAG 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 60 NW GBN 45 WNW PRC 50 NNW GCN 20 NW U17 30 NW GJT 10 NE CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 45 NNW MBG 10 E 4BQ 50 SW MLS 65 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS SW INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT/WY WILL CONTINUE E INTO MN/IA AND ATTAIN MAXIMUM AMPLIFICATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SWRN RIDGE RETROGRESSES SLIGHTLY INTO WRN AZ. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MT/WY IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY S AND E...REACHING A MQT/MSN/IRK/ICT/CVS LINE BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS SW INTO ERN NEB/KS... COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD WEAKEN EXISTING CAP AND PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS MEAN MLCAPE RISES TO AOA 2000 J/KG. WHILE CAPE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...IT APPEARS THAT CONFIGURATION OF UPPER TROUGH RELATIVE TO FRONT WILL TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. WITH TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN SEWD WELL BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO BACK WITH TIME AND BECOME PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN/CNTRL MN. THIS SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY QUICK EVOLUTION OF ANY DISCRETE STORMS INTO LINE SEGMENTS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR. SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS-BOUNDARY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER IA/NEB AND KS...BUT CAP WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT RATHER WEAK. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHARP FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL ASCENT PROVIDED BY FRONT...EXPECT THAT A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM MN SWWD INTO ERN/SRN NEB. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVER ERN ND/WRN MN. THE MN CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO WI/UPR MI THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BENEATH 35-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. FARTHER S...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ AND MORE WIDESPREAD AVAILABILITY OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT NEB STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCSS. THESE SYSTEMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY SE INTO PARTS OF KS AND IA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND WRN KS IN WAKE OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE PREDOMINANT ANTICYCLONIC NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTORS...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE INFLUX BOOST MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND HIGH WIND BEFORE THE ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THAT CONTINUE S/SE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL/ERN AZ INTO WRN NM... SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF SWRN RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF AZ/WRN NM. THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FAVOR S/SSW MOTION OF STORMS FORMING OVER THE RIM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ. ACTIVITY MAY BE MODULATED BY WEAK IMPULSES SHED SWD FROM MT/WY TROUGH...AND COULD MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT PRODUCE GUSTY WIND. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 15:55:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 10:55:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507171606.j6HG6ho5012285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171600 SWODY1 SPC AC 171558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM MKC 15 SE HUT 25 SE LBL 25 N CAO 50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 45 W AKO 45 NW GLD 40 NE MCK 15 SE YKN 35 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 60 ESE BLH 20 NE IGM 50 NNW GCN CAG 30 NE LAR 25 ESE MHN 45 SSW 9V9 50 E MBG 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 65 SSW P07 35 WNW P07 40 WSW SPS 45 SW JLN 25 WNW TBN STL BMI 25 SE MLI 20 NNE SZL 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 65 S LBL 40 S DHT 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 20 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON AM. ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EWD TO EXTEND AT 15Z FROM ERN ND SSWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB THEN WSWWD TO VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE IN ERN CO. 30-40KT SSWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF MN WILL ALLOW STRONG HEATING PRIOR TO INITIATION OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IMPLY THAT CIN WILL DISSIPATE AS SFC TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 90S ALLOWING RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY MID AFTERNOON WRN MN WHEN MLCAPES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NERN MN/ARROWHEAD WHERE LONGER DURATION OF HEATING AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE FORCING AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE STORMS TEND TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MODE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN NRN MN SHEAR WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THAT AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PARTICULARLY SINCE MLCAPES THIS AREA COULD BE AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG. THUS HAVE ADDED A LOW PROB OF TORNADOES AS WELL AS INCREASE THE HAIL THREAT INTO NRN MN. THE THREAT OF AT LEAST WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET EWD INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE STRONGER WINDS WITH THE TROUGH ROTATE THRU THIS AREA. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING FRONT RANGE ERN CO... THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD FRONT SHOULD EASE BY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL LOCATION EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB WSWWD TO JUST S OF PALMER DIVIDE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB TO ERN CO. WHILE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...THE MDT/STG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. WHILE FLOW IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT BOWS OR LINE SEGMENTS...THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE STRONG GIVEN THE LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND DRY MID LEVELS. ...SRN AZ... APPEARS ATTM TO BE A GREATER THREAT OF STORMS DEVELOPING SWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY THAN THERE HAS BEEN RECENTLY. ALTHOUGH PW'S HAVE CHANGED LITTLE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE IS GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE N/NELY 15-25 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS ON THE E SIDE OF LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SIERRAS. WITH MOISTURE PROFILES FAVORING A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GREATER STORM MOTION TOWARD THE DESERTS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST STRONG OUTFLOW INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY THE TIME OF THE AFTERNOON OUTLOOK...THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 19:46:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 14:46:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507171957.j6HJvkue021916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171955 SWODY1 SPC AC 171954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 25 SSE OTM 10 ESE FLV 15 SE HUT 25 SE LBL 25 N CAO 50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 45 W AKO 45 NW GLD 40 NE MCK 15 SE YKN 35 W RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 25 WSW PHX 40 SE PRC 25 SSW SOW 40 NE SAD 35 ESE DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW P07 35 WNW P07 40 WSW SPS 45 SW JLN 25 WNW TBN STL BMI 25 SE MLI 20 NNE SZL 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 65 S LBL 40 S DHT 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 60 ESE YUM 60 ESE BLH 20 NE IGM BCE CAG 30 NE LAR 25 WNW MHN 45 N VTN 30 W ABR 40 N JMS 70 NNW DVL ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 20 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT ARCS FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN SD...CENTRAL NEB INTO EAST CENTRAL CO. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND SEWD REACHING AN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SWRN WI/NWRN MO/NERN NM LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO... STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MAINTAINING A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THIS AREA CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM WRN MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NERN NEB...ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 700 MB BASED ON LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPENING MOIST LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP... INITIALLY OVER NRN MN THEN EXTENDING SWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO SRN MN/NWRN IA INTO NERN NEB. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NRN/CENTRAL MN AROUND 21-22Z WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SRN MN/EXTREME SERN SD/NWRN IA AND NERN NEB BY 23-00Z. STRONG LINEAR FORCING INDICATES LIKELIHOOD OF BROKEN LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD/SEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PRIMARILY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MN WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY A VEERING WIND PROFILE. PRESENCE OF WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE PBL WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI..WI..AND CENTRAL/ERN IA...AND POSSIBLY NERN KS AND NWRN MO TONIGHT. ...WRN/CENTRAL KS INTO ERN CO... MOIST EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO IN THE WAKE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL AID CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND NERN CO ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WHERE MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG) MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP. PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THIS AREA. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AFTER DARK OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND INCREASES CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION LIFT. ...PARTS OF AZ/SWRN NM... THUNDERSTORM ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SUGGESTING THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS INDICATED PW IN THE 1.2-1.4 INCH RANGE AND CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. VAD WINDS AT FSX/IWA/EMX EXHIBIT 20-25 KT NLY FLOW SUGGESTING STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE WELL MIXED AND VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE DESERTS WITH THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 00:52:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 19:52:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507180104.j6I14T4w006932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180102 SWODY1 SPC AC 180101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE AUW 25 N DBQ 25 SSE OTM 10 ESE FLV 15 SE HUT 35 ESE LBL 10 W CAO 30 ENE TAD 20 SSW LIC 45 NW GLD 45 SSW BBW 15 WSW SPW 20 SSE STC 55 N EAU 25 NNE AUW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 35 SW BWD MWL 40 SE SGF 55 NW CGI 35 SE UIN 20 NNE SZL 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 65 S LBL 35 SW TCC 40 SW ROW 20 W ELP ...CONT... 60 SSW GBN 70 ENE BLH 50 E IGM 40 SW GUP FMN 50 NW ALS 50 NNW 4FC 10 S LAR 20 NNE SNY 20 SW FSD 35 S AXN 40 W INL ...CONT... 80 W CAR 3B1 PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD INTO ERN CO / WRN KS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SSWWD INTO NWRN IA...THEN SWWD INTO SERN CO. THOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED STORMS THUS FAR...ALONG WITH ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. THOUGH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GREATEST THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS FROM WRN IA SWWD INTO N CENTRAL KS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING. ...SERN AZ... STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SWD / SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN AZ THROUGH MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AIDED BY BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL NLY / NELY FLOW AROUND SRN NV HIGH. AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVEALED BY RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 05:33:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 00:33:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507180545.j6I5jLDu011147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180543 SWODY1 SPC AC 180541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ERI 25 NE ZZV 25 NNW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 15 NW PIA MKG 55 ESE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 10 E IGM 60 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW CEZ 35 SE MTJ 10 WSW EGE FCL AKO MCK LNK 35 NNE DSM LSE IWD 70 NNW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MI / THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD FROM THE N CENTRAL CONUS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / ONTARIO...WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WLYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS / SRN CANADA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS -- SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE NRN PORTIONS OF FRONT CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION... CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE START OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REINTENSIFICATION - REDEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA -- TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL-SCALE LINES. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. FURTHER SWWD...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE LOWER LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. ...HIGH PLAINS OF CO / NERN NM... SELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS CO / NERN NM. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND WITH SELYS AT LOW-LEVELS BENEATH MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. NAM APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH DESTABILIZATION /DUE TO OVERACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME/ AS COMPARED TO NAMKF RUN...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND ATTM. HOWEVER...MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ...CENTRAL AND SRN AZ... STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THEN MOVE SWWD OFF THE RIM INTO WHAT SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. WITH NAM DEPICTING 25 TO 30 KT NELY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SERN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS. ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 12:32:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 07:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507181243.j6IChwC8003835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181241 SWODY1 SPC AC 181240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JHW 15 W HLG 20 NW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 35 SSW CGX 35 SE MBL 55 ESE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 10 E IGM 60 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW CEZ 35 SE MTJ 10 WSW EGE FCL AKO 30 SSW MCK 25 NE CNK 20 NW IRK 40 WSW LNR 10 WNW RHI 55 N CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE ENE LATER THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. EXPECT NRN PART OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E TO THE LWR GRT LKS...WHILE THE SRN PART WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS. ...GRT LKS/OH VLY... COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AS UPR TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STORM REINTENSIFICATION/REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT LIKELY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. BUT DEEP WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT... ESPECIALLY OVER LWR MI AND IND/NRN OH...TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO LINES WITH SMALL-SCALE BOWS. WHILE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT CAPE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...EWD TO THE LWR LKS. FARTHER SW...WEAKER UPR FLOW WILL FAVOR LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. BUT PRESENCE OF SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF MO/KS AND NRN OK. ...S CNTRL/SE CO INTO NRN/ERN NM AND THE WRN OK/TX PNHDLS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD W INTO THE SRN RCKYS IN WAKE OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOSING S ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS. COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...REGION SHOULD SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODEST NNWLY UPR FLOW WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT IF ENOUGH STORMS DO FORM...CONSOLIDATION INTO A S OR SSE-MOVING MCS MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE OF PARTS OF SRN CO AND NRN/ERN NM TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...SRN AZ... SLIGHT W/E ELONGATION OF PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS EXPECTED TO VEER MID LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NELY DIRECTION OVER SE AZ TODAY...AND POSSIBLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE. THE UPR FLOW SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN DIFFLUENT OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS...WHERE WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK IMPULSES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP S ALONG ERN FRINGE OF RIDGE. THUS...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE ERN RIM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS THE ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SW INTO THE LWR DESERTS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 16:05:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 11:05:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507181616.j6IGGdmi014131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181607 SWODY1 SPC AC 181605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JHW 15 W HLG 20 NW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 35 SSW CGX 35 SE MBL 55 ESE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE YUM 15 SSW IGM 55 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW 20 W FMN 35 SE MTJ 10 SSE EGE FCL AKO 35 NNE GLD 30 NE CNK 35 SSE P35 20 W BRL 10 NE DBQ 35 W LNR 25 WNW CWA 60 N CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... VIGOROUS SUMMERTIME TROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY CONTINUES EWD WITH A S/WV IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING ACROSS LWR GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM RATHER DEEP LOW W OF JAMES BAY SWD THRU ERN LS AND THEN ARCING SWWD ACROSS LM INTO NRN MO THEN ACROSS NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPES CURRENTLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT NWRN LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND DOWN THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EWD. GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS AND GENERALLY MDT BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...STORMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DURING THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NRN OH VALLEY. SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THIS AREA...HOWEVER WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT. SEVERE RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY. ......LOWER MO VALLEY WWD TO EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM SRN MO WWD ACROSS WRN KS/NRN OK TO EAST SLOPES OF ROCKIES. WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY. A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR NERN NM/SERN CO...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE COULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER THE WARM LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ...SRN AZ... ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES FROM SUNDAY ARE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THIS AM SERN AZ WITH THE MORNING CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE. WITH STRONG HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEERING FLOW ON E SIDE OF UPPER HIGH STILL FROM THE N/NE 15-20 KTS WHICH WILL AGAIN FAVOR PROPAGATION OF MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO THE DESERTS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. WILL REEVALUATE RISK POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IF COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN STORMS IS SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL TO DEVELOP INTO DESERT VALLEYS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 00:40:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 19:40:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507190052.j6J0qHJx001853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190050 SWODY1 SPC AC 190048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SVE 40 N RNO 10 WNW NFL 60 SE NFL 50 NNE BIH 30 NNW BIH 60 NW BIH 25 SSE TVL 30 WSW RNO 25 SSE SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 25 W PHX 40 WSW PRC 55 SW GCN 25 SE GCN 20 NNW INW 25 SSW GUP 20 W 4SL 50 W ALS 40 E GUC 40 WNW COS 15 WNW LIC 25 WSW GLD 20 SW RSL 40 S EMP 20 WNW VIH 15 WNW CMI 20 WSW AZO 25 SSE HTL 40 N APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHERE MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OBSERVED. STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING / INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST...HOWEVER...AS WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK /GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 TO 30 KT/ THROUGH MID LEVELS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS CONTINUE INVOF TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT LYING ROUGHLY W-E FROM NRN OK INTO SRN CO...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...ELY SURFACE WINDS JUST N OF BOUNDARY VEERING TO WLY AT LOW TO MID LEVELS IS YIELDING ENHANCED SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL. STORMS MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...SERN AZ... THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN AZ CONTINUE MOVING SEWD...AIDED BY 30 KT NELY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP MIXED LAYER IN PLACE...A FEW STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION DECREASES. ..GOSS.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 05:50:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 00:50:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507190602.j6J62Il9026349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW CMX 50 NE MSP 10 SSW SUX 50 NNE BUB 15 NE 9V9 25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 30 N RAL 15 SW LAS 10 NW GCN 55 N INW 35 NW GUP 35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 25 S DEN 15 SSW LIC 55 WSW GLD 40 SW MCK 40 SSW MHN 10 NE PHP 35 E Y22 20 SSW P24 25 SSE ISN 10 NW OLF 65 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW ANJ 35 ENE VOK 15 WNW CID 25 WNW LWD 35 ESE STJ 30 WSW COU 30 SSE SPI 45 NNW MFD 60 ESE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S BIH 40 W BIH 50 SSW TVL 60 SSW SVE 20 E SVE 40 WNW LOL 25 E NFL 10 NW TPH 35 S BIH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S TX... ...SYNOPSIS... AS TRAILING PORTION OF ERN CANADA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A SECOND TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. STRONG /60 TO 70 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WITH STRONGEST FLOW FORECAST JUST N OF THE U.S. / CANADA BORDER. WEAK FRONT / TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN CONUS...WHILE STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF SECOND TROUGH. IN ADDITION...HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NERN MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE...BELT OF MODERATELY-STRONG WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL ADVECT STEEP LAPSE RATES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING OF CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN ND -- AND PERHAPS SWD ACROSS SD ALONG LEE TROUGH. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING AS FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NWRN MN / ERN ND AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN SD...AIDED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / LAPSE RATES...40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED...WITH SLY / SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING / INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KTS FROM THE W AT MID LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT...WHILE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL CONTINUES. ...NEW ENGLAND... STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT / TROUGH. THOUGH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE VIGOROUS STORMS TO EVOLVE...OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THOUGH A DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN MARGINAL / LIMITED OVERALL. ...SERN AZ AND VICINITY... AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD AGAIN FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM / SERN AZ AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. ENHANCED ELY FLOW ALOFT AROUND S SIDE OF UPPER HIGH SHOULD PROMOTE WWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY ABOVE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS. ...S TX... HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NERN MEXICO COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SPREADING EWD ACROSS S TX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 12:18:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 07:18:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507191230.j6JCUFUC021236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191228 SWODY1 SPC AC 191226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW CMX 50 NE MSP 20 NNW MCW 45 WSW FOD 30 SW SUX 40 WSW YKN 15 NE 9V9 25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE GBN 25 ENE GBN 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S BIH 40 W BIH 50 SSW TVL 60 SSW SVE 20 E SVE 40 WNW LOL 25 E NFL 10 NW TPH 35 S BIH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W GJT 50 N ELY 60 ESE OWY 35 NE MLD 30 NE JAC 60 NW RIW 20 NE RKS 30 W GJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 30 N RAL 15 SW LAS 10 NW GCN 55 N INW 35 NW GUP 35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 25 S DEN 15 SSW LIC 55 WSW GLD 40 SW MCK 40 SSW MHN 10 NE PHP 35 E Y22 20 SSW P24 25 SSE ISN 10 NW OLF 65 NW GGW ...CONT... 75 WNW ANJ 35 ENE VOK 15 WNW CID 25 WNW LWD 35 ESE STJ 30 WSW COU 30 SSE SPI 45 NNW MFD 60 ESE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF DEEP S TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES THIS PERIOD... WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW REMAINING N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THE TWO STRONG JET STREAKS DEPICTED ATTM IN WV DATA OVER SRN AB AND THE ERN GULF OF AK MAY AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY...THE BULK OF THEIR INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE BORDER. FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL IMPULSES SKIRTING FRINGE OF PERSISTENT SWRN U.S. RIDGE. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS NOW ENTERING WY AND SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL SD BY THE END OF THE DAY. FARTHER E...IMPULSE WHICH AFFECTED THE UPR LKS YESTERDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE INTO QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AB SPEED MAX SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY DROP SE ACROSS MT/ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A N-S WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN...ON BACK SIDE OF COOL HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT HRCN EMILY WILL AFFECT PARTS OF S TX LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...ERN PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE NRN PLNS THIS MORNING AS FRONT WHICH SETTLED S ACROSS REGION YESTERDAY REDEVELOPS NWD. MEANWHILE...MODERATE WLY FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF CANADIAN SPEED MAX WILL SPREAD A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ACROSS THE REGION ...WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE TO AOA 12C EWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STRENGTHENING EML WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN DAKS AND NW MN. STRONG CAP LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE DAKS...DESPITE INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH. BUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING INVOF SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER NE ND/NW MN...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST AND CAPPING WEAKEST. WITH TIME... ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM SWD ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR ALONG WARM FRONT INTO FAR ERN SD/SW MN...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ. GIVEN COMBINATION OF STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 4000 J PER KG/ AND 40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN NE ND AND NRN/WRN MN. OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG AND BEHIND MERGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...DEEP S TX... THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF HRCN "EMILY" SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF S TX BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND NHC FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL POSE A RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. ...CNTRL/SRN AZ AND SW NM... PERSISTENT NRN AZ UPR RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ELONGATE EWD TODAY AS WLY FLOW INCREASES TO ITS NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL VEERING OF THE MEAN MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN AZ TO ENELY. GIVEN RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPARENT IN STLT IMAGERY... EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE W OR WSW INTO VERY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LWR DESERTS...WHERE MERGING OUTFLOWS COULD YIELD A FEW CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND. ...NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND... WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW ENTERING QUEBEC WILL MOVE E INTO WRN NY TODAY AND WEAKEN...PRECEDED BY SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS. PREDOMINANT WLY FLOW INVOF THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...WITH SURFACE HEATING EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL FORM/INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND...MORE LIKELY... ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGHS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MOIST UNCAPPED AIR AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/ CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ABSENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 15:51:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 10:51:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507191602.j6JG2bFr031498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191557 SWODY1 SPC AC 191555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW CMX 50 NE MSP 20 NNW MCW 45 WSW FOD 30 SW SUX 40 WSW YKN 15 NE 9V9 25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 WNW PHX 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 25 NE AUG 10 S PWM 15 N BOS 25 WNW PVD 20 SW BDL 15 NE POU 40 SW ALB 20 WNW GFL 30 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CNY 60 WNW 4HV 45 N TPH 25 WNW BIH 70 ENE MER 25 WNW TVL 35 WNW RNO 25 ESE WMC 15 NW IDA 30 NE JAC 35 NNW RIW 30 NW CAG 30 NE CNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 10 WNW RAL 20 SW PMD 10 W EDW 20 ENE LAS 45 SW PGA 40 WSW 4SL 35 WNW TAD 25 NNE AKO 25 SSW Y22 35 WSW DIK 65 NNW MLS 30 NNW HVR ...CONT... 25 NNW MQT VOK 15 WNW CID 20 WNW OTM 10 SW IRK 45 W STL 40 E IND CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...NEW ENGLAND... ...REF MCD 1777... VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WEAK COOL FRONT THAT STRETCHES WSWWD FROM JUST N OF ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY. TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL JUST BRUSH NERN STATES AS STRONGER WINDS AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD MOTION REMAIN MOSTLY IN CANADA. HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH STRONG HEATING CONDITIONS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE WARM LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...AZ... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AZ AS ACTIVE MCS TRACKING WWD ACROSS GULF OF CA OVERNIGHT HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW NOTED PARTICULARLY ON THE VAD WINDS AT YUM. VERY STRONG HEATING AGAIN TODAY AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVES WWD OUT OF SRN AZ WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH LCLS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW HAS TURNED TO MORE ELY ACROSS SRN AZ AS UPPER HIGH HAS BUILT SOMEWHAT EWD. THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SERN AZ TO PROPAGATE SWWD/WWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SCENTRAL AZ BY THIS EVENING. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE ACROSS SRN DESERTS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THRU CENTRAL INTO NRN PLAINS TODAY AS BAND OF STRONG WLYS DEVELOP EWD ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT CINH TO DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE THUNDERSTORM UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PROCESS ALLOWS A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG INTO ERN DAKOTAS. RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N/S TROUGH LINE THAT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY THREAT ALONG WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO MN DURING EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOL FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN MN. ...S TX... OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY WITH BE APPROACHING FAR S TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THREAT SHOULD NOT SPREAD MUCH N OF 28N LATITUDE AS EMILY TRACKS INTO THE NERN MEXICO COAST TO S OF BRO REF NHC FCST. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 19:56:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 14:56:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507192008.j6JK8H1i003762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192005 SWODY1 SPC AC 192003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 70 S DLH 15 NNW MKT 20 WSW SPW 10 ENE YKN 45 SE 9V9 50 SW MBG 40 E Y22 75 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 WNW PHX 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 25 NE AUG 10 S PWM 15 N BOS 25 WNW PVD 20 SW BDL 15 NE POU 40 SW ALB 20 WNW GFL 30 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CNY 60 WNW 4HV 45 N TPH 25 WNW BIH 70 ENE MER 25 WNW TVL 35 WNW RNO 25 ESE WMC 15 NW IDA 30 NE JAC 35 NNW RIW 30 NW CAG 30 NE CNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 10 WNW RAL 20 SW PMD 10 W EDW 20 ENE LAS 45 SW PGA 40 WSW 4SL 40 NW TAD 15 NNW LIC 25 ESE SNY 20 ENE AIA 25 SSE RAP 15 SE REJ 35 NNE REJ 35 NE DIK 20 SSE MOT 85 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 NNW MQT LSE 40 SSW ALO 30 W OTM 30 WSW IRK 35 NE COU 15 NNW ALN 35 SW HUF 40 NW CMH 20 NNW FKL 25 SE ROC 30 ENE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS S TX.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AZ.... ...ERN DAKOTAS/NW IA/MN AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO NW ND/NE MT. THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS NE KS...IT APPEARS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL REACH ERN ND/NW MN BY THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE RETURNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. INITIAL HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHING S CENTRAL ND/N CENTRAL SD...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INVOF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND ASCENT INCREASES. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...AND BOWING SEGMENTS OVERNIGHT AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WRN MAINE/NH TO SE NY. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG...BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 88-90 F. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ...S TX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. MEANWHILE...THE OUTER NRN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD S TX...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES TO PERSIST THROUGH 20/12Z ACROSS S TX. ...SRN AZ THROUGH TONIGHT... CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THOUGH THE LOWER DESERTS STILL APPEAR TO BE CAPPED...WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY SUPPORT WWD PROPAGATION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. ...VA AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL VA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO MD 1781 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM INFORMATION. ...KS AREA... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS S CENTRAL/CENTRAL KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AREA...BUT THE LONGER TERM SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAKENING OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW. ..THOMPSON.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 00:52:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 19:52:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507200103.j6K13rl0031431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200101 SWODY1 SPC AC 200059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 20 S NIR 20 S PSX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 65 S DLH 15 N FRM 35 WSW SPW 10 WNW YKN 35 SSW 9V9 45 N PHP 30 SSW JMS 75 W RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N GBN 35 SE PRC 65 SW SOW 50 SSE SAD 50 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MQT 25 NE LSE 20 NNW DSM GRI 30 W IML 40 ESE AIA 35 SSE PHP 50 ENE 81V 25 WNW JMS 80 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 E RAL 10 SSW PMD 10 NNW EDW 60 NE NID 30 N LAS 15 E SGU 40 WSW PGA 50 ENE GCN 70 ESE PGA 25 SSE GUP 20 E GNT 15 SE 4SL 20 N DRO 45 WNW ALS 15 SSE ALS 30 WSW PUB 35 S PUB 10 ESE RTN 45 E LVS 55 E 4CR 45 ESE GDP 30 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LRD 40 NW SAT 25 W DUA 15 S JLN 10 NNW VIH 15 NNW EVV 15 SSW LUK 20 ESE PIT 15 ESE MSV LCI 35 WSW HUL 20 NE CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S TX... ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NERN ND SWWD INTO NWRN SD...AS WELL AS SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO N CENTRAL / NWRN NEB. AIRMASS AHEAD OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY INTENSIFYING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...S CENTRAL AND SERN AZ... CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION AND OVER SERN AZ ATTM. FLOW REMAINS WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...THOUGH 20 TO 30 KT ELY / ENELY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN QUARTER OF THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW STORMS NOW OVER E CENTRAL AND SERN AZ TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD. WITH DEEP MIXED LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 50 F/ OVER THIS REGION...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...S TX... HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF NERN MEXICO...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED 120 NM SE OF BRO. THOUGH BANDING IS CURRENTLY LIMITED ATTM N OF THE CENTER...A FEW BROKEN BANDS CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF S TX. WITHIN THESE BANDS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS DEEP S TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 05:38:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 00:38:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507200550.j6K5oIpV025737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200548 SWODY1 SPC AC 200546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ANJ 50 W PLN 45 SSW HTL 25 SSE SBN 45 NNW DNV 10 E BRL 40 S OMA 25 S MHN 50 NNE VTN 25 SW ATY 20 S BRD 55 N IWD 100 NE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S LRD 60 N BRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL 25 S CMH 40 ENE CRW 40 SSW MRB 35 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 40 SW BFL 15 N UKI 25 ESE CEC 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 40 ENE 4LW 50 S EKO 30 NW MLF 20 NNE CNY CAG 45 ENE RWL 55 SW GCC 60 SW MLS 70 SSW GGW OLF 20 S ISN 45 NNE Y22 65 NE MBG 50 SSE FAR 10 SSE BJI INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 40 E JCT 30 NNW ACT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20 SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO PARTS OF SD / NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS DEEP S TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO S OF EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS...BELT OF STRONGER / ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN U.S. / SRN CANADA. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM THE ERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THIS STRONGER / SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO SERN SD / NERN NEB... MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NERN SD THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN / NRN IA...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM SRN IA WNWWD ACROSS NRN NEB / SRN SD. THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SRN WI / NRN IL...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. THOUGH CONVECTION MAY CROSS NRN IN / LOWER MI OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER NW ALONG COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT / INTENSITY OF CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE ALONG FRONT ACROSS NRN WI / MN BY PRESENCE RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS FURTHER S OVER IA / SRN WI. MORE FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST THOUGH ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD / NRN NEB...WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. BY EARLY EVENING...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR / JUST N OF BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...AS FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE / SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS...AS STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY HIGH LCLS. A GREATER TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST WITHIN POTENTIALLY COOLER / MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IA / MN MCS...THOUGH EXISTENCE / LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS LESS THAN CERTAIN ATTM. OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MN / IA...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ...DEEP S TX... HURRICANE EMILY SHOULD BE INLAND BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW WWD PROGRESS. THIS HURRICANE IS QUITE COMPACT ATTM...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO AREAS S OF THE RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF BANDED CONVECTION FURTHER FROM THE CENTER / NWD INTO S TX WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION S OF CRP / LRD...WILL MAINTAIN 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THIS REGION. ...SRN HALF OF AZ... ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON / EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SW...AS DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...FLOW OVER NRN PORTIONS OF AZ SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- AND THUS CONVECTION GENERALLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...BELT OF STRONGER ELY FLOW ACROSS SRN AZ MAY ALLOW MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY. HOWEVER...PARTS OF SRN AZ MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS...IF NAM INDICATIONS OF SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION PROVE CORRECT. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 12:35:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 07:35:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507201246.j6KCkl06028601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201245 SWODY1 SPC AC 201243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MQT 15 ENE IMT 50 W RHI 30 N LSE 25 NW MSN 25 SSE MTW 30 NNW GRR 35 SE AZO 35 E IND 30 SW BMG 35 ENE ALN 30 WSW BRL 40 S OMA 25 S MHN 50 NNE VTN 40 NE BKX 20 NE STC 65 NW CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 15 NNE COT 30 NW NIR 20 E CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 25 WSW GBN 25 NNE GBN 40 ENE PHX 20 WSW SAD 15 ESE DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL 25 S CMH 40 ENE CRW 40 SSW MRB 35 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 40 E JCT 30 NNW ACT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20 SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 40 SW BFL 15 N UKI 25 ESE CEC 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 40 ENE 4LW 50 S EKO 30 NW MLF 20 NNE CNY CAG 45 ENE RWL 55 SW GCC 60 SW MLS 70 SSW GGW OLF 20 S ISN MBG 25 SSE ABR 45 E ATY 30 NNW STC 35 WSW HIB 40 ESE INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO AND MID MS VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT SWRN STATES RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER N AND E THIS PERIOD...CONFINING THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS TO ALONG AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. STLT LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK IMPULSES SKIRTING NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...S OF THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS. THE LEAD DISTURBANCE...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH MCS NOW OVER MN/IA...SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO IL/IND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPSTREAM FEATURE...NOW IN SE MT...MOVES E/SE INTO SRN MN/NRN IA. S OF THE RIDGE...HRCN EMILY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY W ACROSS NE MEXICO. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING ENE ACROSS ONTARIO EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS. SHALLOW WARM FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM IA SE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP NEWD TODAY AND WEAKEN. ...ERN SD/NE NEB ESE INTO PARTS OF MN/IA/IL AND IND... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS NOW IN SE MN/WRN WI AND NRN IA WILL REINFORCE WRN PART OF WARM FRONT OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN WI/NW IL LATER THIS MORNING. THE MCS SHOULD WEAKEN FOR A WHILE AS LLJ REDEVELOPS WWD. BUT THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY OVER NRN/CNTRL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ESE/SE MOTION OF ASSOCIATED UPR LEVEL IMPULSE. WHILE DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...THE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INVOF INSTABILITY AXIS/WARM FRONT IN IL. A MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS PARTS OF IND/SW LWR MI. FARTHER W...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING INVOF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER SE SD/NE NEB AND WRN IA AS STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE/LLJ BREAK STRONG CAP. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT N OF THESE BOUNDARIES OVER ERN SD/SRN MN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE NOW IN MT. STORMS FORMING OVER THE SD/MN/NEB/IA REGION SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND 40+ KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT SRN STREAM JET. WITH STRONG HEATING FAVORING HIGH LCLS...LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. NEVERTHELESS...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP IN COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR JUST N OF STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN IA/NE NEB...IF PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY BECOME ORIENTED TO FAVOR STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO IT. THE SD/MN/NEB/IA STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO ESE-MOVING MCSS THAT PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY....WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SEVERE EXTENDING E/SE INTO IL/IND. ...NRN WI/UPR MI... MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER THIS REGION TODAY CLOSE TO MAIN BELT OF WLYS. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT AND POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. ...S TX... ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON NRN FRINGE OF HRCN "EMILY" WILL SPREAD SLOWLY W ACROSS S TX TODAY. THE HRCN HAS HAD A HISTORY OF BEING COMPACT AT NIGHT...WITH MORE EXPANSIVE PERIPHERAL CONVECTION PRESENT DURING THE DAY. THIS TREND MAY BE MAGNIFIED TODAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INLAND. REDEVELOPMENT OF BANDED CONVECTION FARTHER FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF S TX. THE GREATEST SUCH THREAT SHOULD EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN HEATING WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL CAPE/LAPSE RATES...AND INVOF OF TOPOGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED CONFLUENCE BAND/TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE WEAKENING CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ...SRN/CNTRL AZ... ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MTNS OF SE AZ/SW NM...WHERE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL /30 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL ELY FLOW WILL EXIST AT 500 MB ON SRN SIDE OF ELONGATING UPR RIDGE. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT ACTIVITY... VERY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS MERGE AND PROPAGATE W ONTO THE LWR DESERTS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED PULSE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER WRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSE A BRIEF THREAT FOR HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 15:52:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 10:52:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507201604.j6KG49NT031173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201558 SWODY1 SPC AC 201557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MQT 15 ENE IMT 50 W RHI 30 N LSE 25 NW MSN 25 SSE MTW 20 N GRR 40 NE FWA 35 SSE MIE 30 SW BMG 35 ENE ALN 30 SW BRL 25 NW FNB 25 SW BBW 15 W 9V9 25 S RWF 25 S STC 65 NW CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE YUM 35 E BLH 60 WSW PRC 40 SSE PRC 50 WNW SAD 15 ESE DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W COT 15 NNE COT 20 NW NIR 35 NE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 SJT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20 SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ROC 25 SE MFD 20 E UNI 30 S MRB 15 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 30 S RAL 15 NNE SBA 40 ENE SMX 15 S BFL 25 NNE BFL 40 ENE SAC 35 E RBL 30 NE RBL 25 N RBL 20 WNW RBL 20 E UKI 10 ESE UKI 35 NNW UKI 25 ENE ACV 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 55 SE 4LW 35 SW WMC 35 SE BAM 25 SW LND 40 S COD 45 W 3HT 45 SW HVR 30 NW OLF 15 ESE P24 45 WSW JMS 60 NNE ABR 20 N AXN BRD 30 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY INTO WRN OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SOUTHERN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH TEXAS... ...NEB EWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA TO WRN OH VALLEY ... OVERNIGHT MCS IS MAINTAINING WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD WRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS SPREADING NEWD AHEAD OF MCS AND COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN IL INTO IND. OUTFLOW FROM MCS EXTENDS BACK TO THE W INTO NRN NEB AS COLD FRONT OVER NWRN MN TO CENTRAL SD CONTINUES SEWD. STRONG DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED INTO NERN NE/WRN IA IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN THE VEERING PROFILES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERN...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING. ...AZ/SRN CA... SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THRU SERN CA AND SRN AZ. WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER SERN CA/SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THE 20-30 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW S OF LARGE ELONGATED UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS THEY WILL ENCOUNTER THE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GREATEST CONCERN AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE EXTENDED A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WWD INTO SERN CA WHERE A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS. A FEW WILL MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE LIMITING FACTOR HERE FOR SEVERE WILL BE DELAYED HEATING DUE TO PRESENCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE MCS THAT MOVED WWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF CA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO NWRN AZ/EXTREME SRN NV AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...SRN TX... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS N OF HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG. THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS HURRICANE WEAKENS RAPIDLY OVER MOUNTAINS OF NERN MEXICO ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER S TX. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 01:05:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 20:05:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507210116.j6L1GwTH029244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210114 SWODY1 SPC AC 210113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 40 N PHX 65 SSE FLG 40 WSW SOW 15 ENE SAD 35 E DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LRD 35 SSE COT 25 SW NIR 20 ESE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW HUF 15 WNW DEC 30 WSW MMO 25 SSE CGX 15 S SBN 10 S TOL 30 SSE FDY 40 W DAY 10 WSW HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MCW 20 ENE DSM OMA 10 SSE BUB 35 NNE AIA PHP 35 NNE 9V9 40 NW OTG 10 WSW FRM 35 S MCW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT JCT 45 SSW PRX 10 NNW FSM 35 WSW SZL 20 N TOP 10 WNW CNK 30 W RSL 30 WSW TCC 30 NNW CNM 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 15 SE SAN 30 S RAL 15 NNE SBA 40 ENE SMX 15 S BFL 25 NNE BFL 40 ENE SAC 15 WNW NFL U31 20 SW ELY 45 W U24 20 WNW PUC 45 E VEL 55 WSW LAR 25 NW CYS 10 SW BFF 30 S CDR 30 S RAP 40 N PHP 55 NE PIR 35 NNW ATY 20 S AXN BRD 30 ENE ELO ...CONT... 20 NNW ROC 30 SSW CAK 20 SW PKB 20 SSE CHO 25 E SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMINDER OF TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SD AND NEB INTO WRN IA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IL INTO IN AND WRN OH.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT OVER SERN AZ.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT OVER EXTREME SRN TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS NWRN WI AND SWRN MN...WWD THRU SD THEN TURNING NWWD ACROSS SERN AND N CENTRAL MT. WNWLY FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...T.S. EMILY CONTINUES WWD INTO THE MEXICAN ROCKIES. REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE NOAA TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. ...PARTS OF SRN SD/NRN NEB INTO WRN IA... FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SEWD OUT OF SWRN SD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL MCS THAT COULD TRACK ESEWD POSSIBLY REACHING AREAS LIKE OMAHA AND WRN DES MOINES BY 21/12Z. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPR 70S AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY POOLED OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA. LATEST RUC MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SWRN IA ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...50 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS ID/WY WHERE ITS EXIT REGION IS LOCATED OVER THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND OVER SERN SD/NERN NEB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AIDING IN ENHANCING UVVS WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. LATEST 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9C/KM AND MLCAPE OF 4000 J/KM INDICATING THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...PARTS OF IL/IN AND NWRN OH... CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MOVING ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER SERN LOWER MI ATTM. WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO LAST UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS. MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG WHERE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS LOCATED...THEN ACTIVITY WILL RUN INTO LOWER DEW POINTS/LESSER INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT. ...SERN AZ... THREAT FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THRU AREA WITH LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ACTIVITY COULD STILL PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR SO. ...EXTREME SRN TX... THERE CONTINUES TO BE SCATTERED BANDS OF CONVECTION ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF T.S. EMILY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA...SO THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES THRU THE REMINDER OF TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 05:20:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 00:20:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507210532.j6L5W2K1011260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210530 SWODY1 SPC AC 210528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FRM 50 SE RST 30 WNW RFD 45 S CGX IND 40 N BWG 30 WNW HOP 25 W PAH 45 SW BLV 45 S UIN 20 NE P35 50 ESE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 SW SPW 25 S FRM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HON 20 S MBG 35 WNW MBG 15 ENE BIS 40 S DVL 25 NNW FAR 40 NNW AXN 25 SE AXN 30 WNW RWF 25 ENE BKX 20 NNE HON. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 25 WNW TUS 35 WSW SAD 40 S SAD 20 ESE DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LGB BFL 25 ESE MER 30 E SAC 45 ESE RBL 35 SSW RBL 45 NW SFO ...CONT... 45 S AST OLM 25 E SEA 25 N EAT 30 E EPH 25 SE ALW 35 SSE BKE 30 SSW BOI 40 SSW TWF 35 ESE EVW 30 S RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NE CPR 55 NNW REJ 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LVS 25 SE ROW 25 WNW MAF 40 SSE BGS 25 WNW BWD 10 E SEP 10 SSE DAL 35 NNW PRX 25 WSW FSM 30 WNW HRO 10 NW SGF 50 SSW SZL 25 ESE TOP 10 ENE MHK 25 N RSL 50 NNW GCK 15 SSW LAA 25 ENE RTN 45 SSE LVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CMX 55 W RHI 20 NNE VOK 35 WNW MKE 25 NNW AZO 70 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CAR 25 E 3B1 25 E BML 20 SE MPV 20 WSW UCA 20 E ELM 35 NNE CXY 15 WNW ILG 15 S ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM IA SEWD ACROSS IL INTO PARTS OF INDIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SERN ND AND NERN SD INTO W CENTRAL MN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SERN AZ.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CHALLENGE FOR THIS OUTLOOK IS ESTIMATING POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED SEVERE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL OVERNIGHT MCS OVER NERN NEB INTO WRN IA...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ORIENTING A MORE NWLY FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ALSO...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD/EWD INTO NWRN CA AND WRN ORE TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF IA SEWD INTO IL AND INDIANA... SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21/03Z INDICATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT DEMARCATION EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB EWD THRU CENTRAL IA SEWD INTO E CENTRAL IL. THIS IS ALSO THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS INDICATING THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THIS BOUNDARY GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. NAM/ETA GIVES A VERY STRONG SIGNAL THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS IA AND IL THRU THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG. THUS...WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS IA WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ...PARTS OF SERN ND/NERN SD INTO W CENTRAL MN... MODELS HINT AT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWD ACROSS WRN SD. WOULD EXPECT NRN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEB/IA OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THIS AREA UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW SRN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXTEND FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO E CENTRAL ND PLACING AREA UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS NRN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY PRODUCING ELEVATED STORMS SUPPORTED BY 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ...SERN AREA OF AZ... MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS PER LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REMNANTS OF HRCN EMILY DECAYING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 30-40 DEGREES F WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THUS...WOULD EXPECT WITH 40 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AS INDICATED USING THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...N CENTRAL AREAS OF CA INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF OREGON... MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD OVER NWRN CA INTO WRN OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE TROUGH NEWD INTO SERN WA TONIGHT. SOME DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UVVS AS WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING EXTENDING SSWWD THRU SWRN ORE. MODELS SHOW CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG HEATING WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF MICROBURSTS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 12:41:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 07:41:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507211253.j6LCrma3031283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211251 SWODY1 SPC AC 211249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 40 WNW PHX 40 SW SOW 40 ENE SAD 45 ESE DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 10 NW BJI 30 ESE BRD 30 S EAU 25 WNW OSH 30 NNW MKG 15 S HTL 70 SE OSC 50 WNW CLE 40 WSW DAY 30 ENE BWG 40 WSW HOP 30 N POF 45 ENE COU 40 NNE FNB 30 SSE BBW 20 WNW AIA 15 ESE 81V 55 SE GDV 65 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AST OLM 25 E SEA 25 N EAT 30 E EPH 25 SE ALW 35 SSE BKE 30 SSW BOI 40 SSW TWF 15 ESE EVW 30 SSE RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NE CPR 20 S 4BQ 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 10 W LGB 35 WSW PMD 40 WSW BFL 30 NNE PRB 10 NE SAC 50 NW SAC 40 SE UKI 45 NW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LVS 25 SE ROW 25 WNW MAF 40 SSE BGS 25 WNW BWD 10 E SEP 10 SSE DAL 35 NNW PRX 25 WSW FSM 30 WNW HRO 10 NW SGF 50 SSW SZL 25 ESE TOP 10 ENE MHK 25 N RSL 50 NNW GCK 15 SSW LAA 25 ENE RTN 45 SSE LVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CAR 25 E 3B1 25 E BML 20 SE MPV 20 WSW UCA 20 E ELM 35 NNE CXY 15 WNW ILG 15 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CMX RHI 35 NW GRB 10 NNW MBL 35 N HTL 30 ESE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLNS SE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT WRN/CNTRL U.S. RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY N ACROSS THE NRN RCKYS BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY AS LOW OFF THE NRN CA CST LIFTS NE INTO WRN ORE. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SKIRTING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE UPR RIDGE THAT LIKELY WILL AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. AT LWR LEVELS...A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SE ACROSS MI/WI AND THE MID MS VLY...WHILE WRN PART OF SAME FEATURE REFORMS N AS A WARM FRONT OVER NEB AND THE DAKS. BUT SURFACE PATTERN LIKELY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LEFT BY ONGOING AND FUTURE MCSS. ...IA/SRN WI ESE INTO SRN IL/IND/LWR MI... IA/SRN MN MCS HAS A WELL-DEFINED EMBEDDED MCV AND PRESSURE FALL CENTER. AREA VAD AND PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-50 KT WLY FLOW THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP /4 KM/ LAYER ON S SIDE OF MCV... SUGGESTING THAT SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR FACTOR GOVERNING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DOWNSTREAM INTO LWR MI AND THE OH VLY. WITH SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT REMAINING WELL N ACROSS WI/MI THROUGH THE DAY...AND HEATING LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF IT...NRN PART OF THE MN/IA COMPLEX COULD AFFECT PARTS OF WI/MI WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD. MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ON THE FRONT ITSELF...WHERE PROXIMITY TO MAIN BAND OF WLYS WILL YIELD 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR. THIS COULD COMPENSATE FOR RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY OVER CNTRL MI AND YIELD STRONG WINDS IN THAT AREA. GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND AND THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 2500 J/KG. SRN PART OF MN/IA COMPLEX SHOULD REACH THESE AREAS AT OR FOLLOWING MAX HEATING...THEREBY ENHANCING SEVERE WIND AND POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT. ...FAR ERN MT ESE INTO DAKS/NEB/IA... A SERIES DISTURBANCES ARE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SKIRTING NRN SIDE OF UPR RIDGE. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING REGION ALONG MODERATE /40-50 KT/ WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WWD N OF WEAK WARM FRONT... SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND MAY DEVELOP INVOF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN NRN NEB/SRN SD...AND/OR INVOF INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN THIS REGION WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG BENEATH A STRONG CAP. ADDITIONAL SUBSTANTIAL STORMS...MOST LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...MAY FORM LATE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN...DOWNSTREAM FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE...HIGH WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE THAT COULD CONTINUE SE INTO IA EARLY FRIDAY. ...SRN AZ... LITTLE CHANGE IN MID/UPR LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER AZ TODAY ...DESPITE EXPANSION OF UPR RIDGE. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE MOIST IN PLACES GIVEN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN NW MEXICO...LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE FROM "EMILY" MORE DRASTICALLY ALTERS CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. 25-30 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON S SIDE OF RIDGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FAVOR W/WSW PROPAGATION OF DIURNAL STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CNTRL/SE AZ. VERY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NRN CA/INTERIOR ORE AND SRN WA... IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME LIFTING N ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL CA ATTM SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS DEEP SSWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF OFFSHORE LOW. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ...COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT ...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND 40+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO BANDS AND MAY PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE WINDS. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 16:26:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 11:26:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507211638.j6LGcZ8Y018965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211625 SWODY1 SPC AC 211623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLE 15 NNW CMH 35 S SDF HOP 25 SE CGI 60 SSW STL 25 S IRK 45 NNE FNB 15 SSW BBW 30 SE AIA 45 NE DGW 40 N 81V 35 S SDY 45 E ISN 30 E MOT 50 S FAR 35 E EAU 15 ENE MBL 60 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 65 WNW GBN 45 WSW PRC 25 SW FLG 25 S INW 40 SSE SOW 15 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 ESE RAL 15 WSW PMD VBG ...CONT... 20 SSW HQM 50 WSW 4OM 50 E 63S 10 WNW FCA 45 N 3DU 20 WSW DLN 20 ENE PIH 25 E EVW 30 SSE RKS 10 SSW RWL 55 NNE CPR 10 NNE MLS 65 N OLF ...CONT... 25 ENE ELO 50 NW IWD 15 NE IWD 10 SW MQT 35 NNW PLN 65 ENE APN ...CONT... 35 S HUL 20 W BGR 20 S RUT 25 WNW MSV 15 NE ABE 25 NE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW TCC 30 NW HOB 25 WNW MAF 40 SSE BGS 25 WNW BWD 10 E SEP 10 SSE DAL 20 WNW PRX 25 NNW PGO 15 NNE FYV 20 NW UMN 30 NNW JLN 30 SSE EMP 25 SSE SLN 30 WSW RSL 50 NNW GCK 15 SSW LAA 15 NNW CAO 35 SW TCC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ... ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TWO DISTURBANCES...ONE LOCATED IN FAR NE MT AND ONE LOCATED IN NE WY. ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN SE MT EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN IA. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...IT APPEARS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS IN AREAS WITH ENHANCED INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD INTO NRN NEB THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT INTO ERN NEB AND IA. ...UPPER MIDWEST/OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN IA AND SRN MN. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT ESEWD TODAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SERN WI AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LINE HAS CAUSED STABILIZATION IN SRN WI AND THIS MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THERE LATER TODAY. SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION...ACROSS ERN AND SRN IL...IND AND NRN KY...STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 4000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...AZ... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WHITE MTNS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE WSWWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED MULTICELL STORMS. LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL RESULT IN A ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ...ORE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A LARGE BAND OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO ORE TODAY SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS STORMS INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ORE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 00:58:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 19:58:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507220110.j6M1A8RI027057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220107 SWODY1 SPC AC 220106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE MOT 40 W GFK 40 SSE FAR 25 W RWF 10 WNW SPW 40 NNE OMA 20 NNW LNK 20 WNW BBW 35 ESE CDR 50 WSW RAP 40 WNW REJ 30 NW P24 60 ENE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CLE 30 NNW ZZV 55 E LUK 30 WNW LEX 35 WNW SDF 40 SSW BMG 25 WSW MTO 15 S PIA 35 E MLI 10 ESE CGX 10 SSE GRR 30 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 50 NW IWD 15 NE IWD 10 SW MQT 35 NNW PLN 65 ENE APN ...CONT... 35 S HUL 20 W BGR 20 S RUT 25 WNW MSV 15 NE ABE 25 NE NEL ...CONT... CZZ 15 ESE RAL 15 WSW PMD VBG ...CONT... 30 SSW ONP 30 WNW DLS 30 SSE EPH 35 S S06 45 SW 3DU 20 WSW DLN 20 ENE PIH 25 E EVW 30 SSE RKS 10 SSW RWL 55 NNE CPR 10 NNE MLS 65 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE LVS 25 S ROW 30 NW FST 60 NNE P07 35 ESE SJT 20 SE BWD 10 SSE DAL 20 WNW PRX 30 ENE MKO 25 NNE CNU 30 SW MHK 45 N RSL 30 NNE GLD 30 SE LIC TAD 15 SE LVS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS FROM SRN CA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RIDGE HAS EXTENDED NNWWD DURING THE DAY INTO THE NRN PLATEAU REGION ENHANCING NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...ONE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE NWRN CA COAST SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED AT THIS TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS. QUITE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTEND FROM SERN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO IL AND IA...AND SEVERAL ARE A RESULT OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. ...SERN LOWER MI INTO WRN/CENTRAL OH/INDIANA/E CENTRAL IL... MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD INTO NERN IL THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH INTO CENTRAL IL. MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL OH TO 3500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL IL. LATEST RAOB FROM KILN SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER 3KM...AS WELL AS CENTRAL IL... WITH VALUES BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5C/KM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECREASE IN INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. ...NRN PLAINS... CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SWWD FROM S CENTRAL CANADA INTO E CENTRAL WY. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN ND INTO NWRN IA WHICH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG. NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 35-45 KT AND 60-70 KT...RESPECTIVELY EXTENDS FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NWRN MN PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ACROSS THE AREA. 23Z RUC MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE BRN SHEAR VALUES AROUND 100 AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ERN PARTS OF THE ND/SD BORDER. THUS...SUPERCELLS A REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST THRU THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...PARTS OF SRN AZ... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8.5C/KM. A FEW STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 05:38:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 00:38:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507220550.j6M5okWm024052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220548 SWODY1 SPC AC 220547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM AUG 20 ENE EEN 25 ENE MSV 35 ESE IPT 15 NE PSB 25 ENE FKL 20 WNW JHW 25 NW BUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW LUK 55 ESE LUK 25 SE HTS 25 ESE 5I3 15 ESE TRI 15 NW HSS 15 WSW CSV 50 SW BNA 40 S PAH 15 N PAH 20 W EVV 50 WSW LUK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RRT 35 SW BRD 25 NNW MKT 15 WNW MCW 40 ESE FOD 40 E OMA 25 SSW SUX 30 WSW YKN 40 WSW 9V9 40 SSE PHP 60 NNE DGW 35 WSW GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 NW BIL 25 NE LWT 55 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW MLC 20 ENE TUL 20 SW TOP 30 SSE BIE 10 NNE GRI 30 WNW BBW 60 ENE SNY 30 S AKO 30 SW LHX 50 WSW TCC 40 W ROW 20 W ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 WNW SVE 30 SSE MFR 30 N 4BK ...CONT... 35 N ONP 45 NNW PDX 10 N SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 35 N RST 25 ESE MLI 25 SSW BMI 25 NW HUF IND 25 ESE MIE 30 W FDY 35 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO/TN VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THRU THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. MAIN FEATURES TO CONCENTRATE ON ARE THE PAIR OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVEL FROM WRN MT AND WRN OREGON NEWD AND EWD THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS EVENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO THRU THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY... OVERNIGHT MCS OCCURRING OVER INDIANA INTO E CENTRAL/SERN IL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/JUST S OF THE OHIO RIVER BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY SUBSIDENT COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO NRN MIDDLE AND NERN TN. MLCAPES ARE 2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE MCS SUPPORTING CONTINUAL ACCESS TO VERY WARM MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LATER THIS MORNING...BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD AND SWWD INTO PARTS OF AR...MS AND AL WHERE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ...NERN U.S... MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. EXIT REGION OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND OVER THE NERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS MORNING PLACING DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON ENHANCING UVVS. MODELS SHOW THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S /WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE NAM/ BUT WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS MUCAPES PROJECTED TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN PLAINS... MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE NWRN U.S. NEWD AND EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON THEN THRU THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT FROM WRN KS NWD INTO CENTRAL SD AND S CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BRANCH EXTENDING TOWARDS NWRN SD AND SERN MT. MEANWHILE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS LARGE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENHANCE UVVS ALONG WARM FRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY MOVING NWD THRU THE DAKOTAS. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MUCAPE WILL BE AROUND 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 KT ACROSS THE AREA. CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE MCS IN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MODELS SHOW THAT HELICITY VALUES IN THE LOWEST 1KM WILL BE 250...AND IN THE LOWEST 3KM OVER 400 INDICATING ROTATING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 23/06Z AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PROBABILITIES TO A POINT WHERE ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ...ARN AREAS OF AZ... MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WHICH HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN AREAS OF MEXICO. ELY FLOW OF 20-30 KT WILL AGAIN BE OVER SRN AZ WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 12:43:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 07:43:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507221255.j6MCtPcD000696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221252 SWODY1 SPC AC 221250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM AUG 20 ENE EEN 25 ENE MSV 35 ESE IPT 15 NE PSB 25 ENE FKL 20 WNW JHW 25 NW BUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S AST 35 NE AST 10 N SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 WNW SVE 30 SSE MFR 30 N 4BK ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 35 N RST 25 ESE MLI 25 SSW BMI 15 SW HUF 35 SE IND 20 NW DAY 45 W CLE ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW MLC 20 ENE TUL 30 ESE MHK 25 SSW BIE 10 NNE GRI 30 WNW BBW 60 ENE SNY 30 S AKO 30 SW LHX 50 WSW TCC 40 W ROW 20 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 15 WSW FAR 55 ENE ABR 50 NW PIR 20 ESE RAP 60 SSE 81V 55 N DGW SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 30 NW WEY 55 NE SUN 35 NW SUN 35 ESE BKE 40 N ALW 35 NE GEG 55 NNW 3TH 30 NW GTF 25 ENE LWT 55 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS... ...NORTHEAST... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SSEWD ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTING ABUNDANT AFTERNOON HEATING. COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...GIVEN RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM H85 TO JUST UNDER H5 AT PIT AND BUF THIS MORNING. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES...EXPECT SURFACE CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OTHER LOCAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS UNDER INCREASING WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS... MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN ORE. OTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCES WHERE LIFTING MORE NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO HANDLE THESE SYSTEMS WELL AND BRING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVES NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WITH TRAILING STRONG SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD FOCUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HEATING SUPPORTS LARGE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AS STRONGEST SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE PAC NW...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT AND OVERSPREAD NERN ORE/NRN ID INTO CENTRAL MT BY 21Z. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BOTH UVV AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE STORM INTENSITIES/COVERAGE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NRN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH /WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ MAY ALLOW SURFACE BASED STORMS TO FORM/PERSIST AS THEY OVERSPREAD LOWER ELEVATIONS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE NEAR SUNSET OVER ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AS STRONG SSELY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED...WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING ENEWD ALONG NOSE OF VEERING LLJ OVERNIGHT. ...MID SOUTH REGION... OVERNIGHT MCS MOVING ACROSS WRN KY/MIDDLE TN HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KT WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES. HOWEVER... DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF MECHANISM TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY... 09Z RUC SUGGESTS CAPPING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER SERN SD/FAR NERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN LATER TODAY NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE. HOWEVER...RUC APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS BOUNDARY LAYER AND 12Z OAX SOUNDING EXHIBITS STRONGER CAPPING THAN PROGGED BY THE 09Z RUC. WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINING WELL NW OF THIS REGION AND STRENGTH OF CAP...EXPECT SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO FORM WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 16:27:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 11:27:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507221638.j6MGcqVG021901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221630 SWODY1 SPC AC 221628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM 15 NNW PWM 20 E ORH 10 WNW ILG 25 WNW HGR 20 SSW BFD 15 WNW ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 15 N HRO 30 E SGF 50 N SGF 25 NE EMP 20 SE CNK 35 N BUB 9V9 40 SSW PIR 15 NNW BFF 30 NE DEN 25 SW DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 25 SSE PUB 40 SW CAO 35 SW TCC 55 WNW CNM 20 W ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 SE MHS 10 NNE MFR 10 SSW EUG 40 SE OLM 25 NNE SEA 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 45 NW HIB 40 ENE STC 45 NW EAU 10 ESE AUW 15 ENE OSH 10 SSE JVL 15 S SPI 15 W SLO 25 ENE MDH 25 ESE OWB 15 W LEX 35 NE DAY 45 WNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 45 NE JMS 40 SSW JMS 25 ESE MBG 25 WNW RAP 20 WSW GCC SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 15 N WEY 35 N IDA 35 NW SUN 40 E BKE 40 WNW PUW 50 NE 63S 30 NW CTB 45 NW LWT 40 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON TO ND OVERNIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...NE STATES... A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WV TO WRN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER AND A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD BREAKS ARE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S...THE 12Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INVOF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO ND TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER WRN ORE THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN MT...A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY SURVIVING AND MOVING EWD FROM E/SE MT INTO ND. THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THOUGH THE LATTER MAY BE OVERCOME BY STRONG ASCENT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ON THE NERN FRINGE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LATE TONIGHT. ...MID MO VALLEY... A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN A NW-SE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE SD/WRN IA/ERN NEB. THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN SD AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS FORM...VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SWD MOVING SUPERCELLS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 16:39:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 11:39:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507221651.j6MGpSQI029145@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221646 SWODY1 SPC AC 221644 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 45 NE JMS 40 SSW JMS 25 ESE MBG 25 WNW RAP 20 WSW GCC SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 15 N WEY 35 N IDA 35 NW SUN 40 E BKE 40 WNW PUW 50 NE 63S 30 NW CTB 45 NW LWT 40 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM 15 NNW PWM 20 E ORH 10 WNW ILG 25 WNW HGR 20 SSW BFD 15 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 15 N HRO 30 E SGF 50 N SGF 25 NE EMP 20 SE CNK 35 N BUB 9V9 40 SSW PIR 15 NNW BFF 30 NE DEN 25 SW DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 25 SSE PUB 40 SW CAO 35 SW TCC 55 WNW CNM 20 W ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 SE MHS 10 NNE MFR 10 SSW EUG 40 SE OLM 25 NNE SEA 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 45 NW HIB 40 ENE STC 45 NW EAU 10 ESE AUW 15 ENE OSH 10 SSE JVL 15 S SPI 15 W SLO 25 ENE MDH 25 ESE OWB 15 W LEX 35 NE DAY 45 WNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON TO ND OVERNIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...NE STATES... A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WV TO WRN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER AND A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD BREAKS ARE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S...THE 12Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INVOF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO ND TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER WRN ORE THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN MT...A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY SURVIVING AND MOVING EWD FROM E/SE MT INTO ND. THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THOUGH THE LATTER MAY BE OVERCOME BY STRONG ASCENT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ON THE NERN FRINGE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LATE TONIGHT. ...MID MO VALLEY... A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN A NW-SE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE SD/WRN IA/ERN NEB. THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN SD AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS FORM...VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SWD MOVING SUPERCELLS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 20:04:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 15:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507222016.j6MKGRZc031378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222013 SWODY1 SPC AC 222011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 45 NE JMS 40 SSW JMS 25 ESE MBG 25 WNW RAP 20 WSW GCC SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 15 N WEY 35 N IDA 35 NW SUN 40 E BKE 40 WNW PUW 50 NE 63S 30 NW CTB 45 NW LWT 40 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM 15 NNW PWM 25 SW BOS 20 W TTN 25 SSE BWI 45 SSW MRB 20 SSW BFD 30 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 20 SSW UMN 30 N UMN 40 ENE CNU EMP 20 SE CNK 35 N BUB 9V9 40 SSW PIR 25 SSE BFF 30 NE DEN 25 SW DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 25 SSE PUB 40 SW CAO 35 SW TCC 55 WNW CNM 20 W ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 SE MHS 10 NNE MFR 10 SSW EUG 40 SE OLM 25 NNE SEA 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 45 NW HIB 40 ENE STC 45 NW EAU 10 ESE AUW 15 ENE OSH 10 SSE JVL 15 S SPI 15 W SLO 25 ENE MDH 25 ESE OWB 15 W LEX 35 NE DAY 45 WNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EWD TO ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN STATES... ...MID ATLANTIC TO NE STATES... AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING... WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG FROM VA TO WRN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NOW OVER QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NRN NY INTO ME...WITH A SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED SHEAR OVER SRN PA TO VA WITH A COUPLE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO NE STATES IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ...MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO ND TONIGHT... UPPER TROUGH...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS WA...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE SWRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND MT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD FROM SRN ID WITH A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ID INTO MT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVELS BEING RELATIVELY DRY... SUGGESTING THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE INITIAL STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LATER TONIGHT. ...MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND/OR MCV/S TRACKING SEWD OVER THE MID-LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WITH OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM ERN SD SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB TO NWRN AND SERN MO. AIR MASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/KG/ THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT... ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY OVER THE MID MO VALLEY FROM ERN SD TO NERN KS/NWRN MO WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THESE AREAS. ...PARTS OF NRN TO SE TX... REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WSWWD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW LOCATED OVER EAST TX...WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED WSWWD MOTION...WITH THESE STORMS MOVING INTO PARTS OF NRN TO SE TX. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SRN NV NWD ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT TO ERN ID COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN NV WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL... THOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 00:54:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 19:54:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507230106.j6N16pnH014679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230104 SWODY1 SPC AC 230103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL 45 SSW GFK 45 ENE ABR 35 WNW HON 15 WNW PHP 30 SSE 81V 30 E WRL 50 E WEY 10 SSW DLN 40 S 3DU 60 SE FCA 20 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 30 WNW EDW 40 E FAT 45 E TVL 40 WNW LOL 70 S BNO 55 NNW BNO 10 NNW YKM 35 NW EAT 65 NW 4OM ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 40 ENE BJI 40 NE BRD 45 NE MSP 30 NE RST 40 NE ALO 25 SE CID 35 NW STL 30 WNW MDH 20 SW OWB 35 ENE BWG 20 SW JKL 20 WNW PKB 10 WNW ROC ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 20 SSW UMN 30 N UMN 35 SSE OJC 15 ENE TOP 15 SSE BIE 35 N BUB VTN 55 E CDR 25 SSE BFF 35 ENE FCL 15 W DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 15 NNE TAD 10 NE LVS 25 ESE ABQ 45 NW TCS 55 ESE DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL MT INTO THE DAKOTAS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NWRN U.S. WITH STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THRU THE NERN U.S. RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING NWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL BE SHIFTING EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING WLY FLOW OVER MT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. CURRENTLY...TWO SEPARATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NWRN U.S. TROUGH. ONE IS MOVING NEWD INTO CENTRAL MT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE SECOND IS OVER S CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE TWO ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PHASE TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN MCS OVER ERN MT INTO ND. ...CENTRAL MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN THRU NERN MT AND SERN ND AND CENTRAL MN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WARM /GREATER THAN 14C/ TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB INTO SERN MT. THIS MAY WEAKEN A BIT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVEL EWD ACROSS MT. LATEST RUC MODEL DEVELOPS UVVS OVER NERN MT INTO SWRN ND LATER TONIGHT WHERE THERMODYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG RUNNING ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET 40-45 KT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING UVVS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...NERN U.S... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL ME SWWD THRU CENTRAL MA INTO SWRN PA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THRU PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING NEXT FEW HOURS. REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS WELL...BUT DECREASING THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 05:31:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 00:31:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507230543.j6N5hL73025347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230540 SWODY1 SPC AC 230539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MTC 15 NE JXN 30 WNW BEH 40 ENE DBQ 30 NNE MCW 20 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 N MBG 50 NNE BIS 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 10 N BYI 55 SSW 27U 50 NW S06 25 W FCA 10 WNW 3DU 15 SW 3HT 70 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WNW SDY 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 45 SSE P07 50 SE MAF 30 WNW ABI 35 ENE DAL 15 WNW FSM 50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE ALM 45 WSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE 25 NW CMH 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI 15 NW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN STORM TRACK TAKES A SHIFT SWD AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. DOMINANT AND PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST CREATING THE ZONAL FLOW. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING ASPECTS IN THE STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE NAM SEEMS TO OVERFORECAST THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO MN/WI WITH SPEEDS OF 50-60 KT. THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND HAS CREATED WIND PROFILES AND HODOGRAPHS MORE LIKE APRIL AND MAY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR THE NAMKF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH FORECAST 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EWD THRU N CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO SERN SD BY 24/12Z. ANALYSIS OF H7 TEMPERATURES SHOW THAT STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD WITH 16C TEMPERATURES NOSING INTO SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL SD EWD/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 24/00Z ENHANCING PRESSURE FALLS/UVVS ACROSS CENTRAL MN ALONG SRN EDGES MID LEVEL 60-70 KT FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL PUSH EWD BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN CLUSTERS...THEN A LINE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WARM...VERY MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF INDICATE MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ENHANCED BY THE TRANSFER OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM ON SRN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION. WITH LOW LEVEL JET COUPLING WITH SRN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL FLOW...HAVE INCLUDED A LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WI WHERE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN LINE ALONG WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU NRN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...ERN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN WEAK ELY FLOW AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG SERIES OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 3000-4000 J/KG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LEVEL RH VALUES OF 50-60 PERCENT. THUS...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SRN PARTS OF TX... MODELS SHOW WEAK ELY WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN TX LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO REACH TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH THE WAVE ENHANCING UVVS FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8C/KM FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY. ...SRN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS HEATING STEEPENS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...SOME ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM PARTS OF AZ/NM NWD INTO UT AND NV. ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 12:42:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 07:42:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507231254.j6NCsMXf025057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231252 SWODY1 SPC AC 231250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE RHI GRB 25 NW MKE 10 ESE LNR 10 ESE MKT 55 SW AXN 40 SE FAR 25 SSW BJI 15 SW HIB 20 NE RHI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DTW 30 SW SBN 25 NNE MLI 30 S MKT 20 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 N MBG 55 NE BIS 80 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 10 N BYI 30 SE BTM 15 SW 3HT 70 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WNW SDY 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... CLE 25 N CMH 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI 15 NW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HOB 25 WSW ABI 50 ESE SPS 30 NW FSM 55 SSW SZL 15 WSW P35 25 S OLU 10 S BBW 50 E LIC 40 E TCC 35 SE HOB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... COMPLEX FORECAST AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OVERRIDE A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TIGHTEN HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEADING IMPULSE NOW SPREADING TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS LATE TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM SERN ND ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN/SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCSS NOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN SD AND NEAR THE IA/WI/MN BORDER REGION SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES...WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS NERN SD/W-CENTRAL MN AT 13Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE MID MORNING BY AREAS/OFFICES DOWNSTREAM...GIVEN AMOUNT OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED TRACK NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. CAPPING WILL WEAKEN WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND COMPLEX COULD SURGE ESEWD WITH AN INCREASED WIND THREAT /POSSIBLY A LARGE BOW ECHO/ IF IT CAN REMAIN ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALONG FAVORABLE NERN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING/H7 THERMAL RIDGE AND COULD MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG NOSE OF VEERING SWLY LLJ. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT ALONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER FAR ERN ND/NERN SD/WRN MN...WHERE COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD BREAK CAP ALONG WRN EDGE OF H7 THERMAL RIDGE. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEGREE OF SHEAR...WITH QUICK EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD UPWARDS INTO A MCS THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREAD THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THIS MCS REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK...ANOTHER BOW ECHO COULD EVOLVE FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 16:24:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:24:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507231636.j6NGaChm005931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231634 SWODY1 SPC AC 231632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE IWD 30 NNW GRB 15 NW OSH 20 S VOK 15 WSW MSP 40 ENE ATY 40 SE FAR 25 SW BJI 10 S HIB 30 SE IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CMX 40 ESE MQT 35 WSW APN 30 S OSC 30 N DTW 35 SSW JXN 25 SW BEH 25 NNE DBQ 30 S MKT 25 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 ESE Y22 45 W BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LAX 30 ESE BFL 40 E FAT 65 NE MER 30 SSE NFL 50 NE EKO 35 ESE BYI 15 S IDA 20 NE IDA 10 ENE MQM 35 ENE DLN 20 SE BZN BIL 65 WNW MLS 40 S GGW 50 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 40 SSE FDY 35 ENE LUK 35 SE LEX 45 SE LOZ 25 NE TRI 10 E PSK 40 ENE SSU 20 WNW NHK 20 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BHB 15 N LCI 20 SSW ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ABI 10 SE OKC 45 SSW TUL 55 SSW SZL 25 SE DSM 45 E SUX 40 E BUB 25 ENE IML 50 NE LAA 40 N CAO 45 WSW TCC 55 E 4CR ROW 10 NNE HOB 50 NNW ABI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ND TO LOWER MI THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...WI/MN TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT... A BOW ECHO WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS IS MOVING INTO W CENTRAL WI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL WI...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MCS...THUS LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD INTO NW ND...AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL SD AT THE INTERSECTION OF A REMNANT LEE TROUGH AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM THE MN/WI MCS. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD/ENEWD INTO MN TONIGHT AS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ALONG THE RETREATING BOUNDARY BY LATE TODAY...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN NE SD/WRN MN AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALIZED ASCENT ERODE THE STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MN/WI BY TONIGHT. FARTHER N...EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MN MCS WILL TEND TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. STILL...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ND...SPREADING EWD INTO ERN ND THIS EVENING AND NW MN TONIGHT. SOME OF THE INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EVOLVE FROM THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT IS NOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL ND. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 04:02:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 23:02:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507240414.j6O4Eivc012679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232023 SWODY1 SPC AC 232021 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE IWD 30 NNW GRB 15 NW OSH 20 S VOK 15 WSW MSP 40 ENE ATY 40 SE FAR 25 SW BJI 10 S HIB 30 SE IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CMX 40 ESE MQT 35 WSW APN 45 S OSC 30 N DTW 35 WNW FWA 30 SSE MMO 25 NNE DBQ 30 S MKT 25 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 ESE Y22 45 W BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LAX 30 ESE BFL 40 E FAT 65 NE MER 30 SSE NFL 50 NE EKO 35 ESE BYI 15 S IDA 20 NE IDA 10 ENE MQM 35 ENE DLN 20 SE BZN 20 E BIL 20 S MLS 25 N GDV 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 25 ESE DTW 40 SSE FDY 35 ENE LUK 35 SE LEX 45 SE LOZ 25 NE TRI 10 E PSK 40 ENE SSU 20 WNW NHK 20 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BHB 15 N LCI 20 SSW ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ABI 15 WSW OKC 25 SW BVO 55 SSW SZL 25 SE DSM 45 E SUX 40 E BUB 25 ENE IML 50 NE LAA 40 N CAO 45 WSW TCC 55 E 4CR ROW 10 NNE HOB 50 NNW ABI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NRN/CENTRAL WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT... ONE STRONG TO SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND MCS TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW SSEWD THROUGH WRN ND TO A SECOND LOW OVER WRN SD...WHILE A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM SD INTO ERN CO/NERN NM. STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 3500-5000 J/KG/ WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE SD SURFACE LOW SEWD ACROSS IA TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADA LOW SEWD ACROSS NRN MN TO NRN WI...WITH A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING E-W ACROSS MN INTO SD/ND LEFT OVER FROM CURRENT MCS/BOW ECHO MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WI. WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO...NOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL WI...SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WI NEAR LAKE MI. NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOW...WITH A SEWD TURN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO PARTS OF NRN IL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS MN...PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING MCS IS RESULTING IN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUPPORTING MOISTURE ADVECTION NWWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS FROM CENTRAL MN WWD TO NERN SD/PARTS OF ND BENEATH STRONG WARMING IN MID LEVELS IS EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THIS AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA PER 18Z ABR/20Z MPX SOUNDINGS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN SRN CANADA AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN ND INTO SRN MANITOBA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE. STRONG CAP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...THEN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS SERN ND/NERN SD AND CENTRAL MN. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS ND/NERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IMPINGING ON A WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. 18Z NAM SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS MN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50+ KT THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL KEEP THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ..PETERS.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 05:12:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 00:12:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507240524.j6O5OUB3029562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240522 SWODY1 SPC AC 240521 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CYS 10 SSE CPR 50 SE BIL 60 W MLS 35 NE MLS 65 NE 4BQ 55 NNE PHP 40 NW HON 35 NE BKX 25 NE MKT 30 WSW RST 50 ESE FOD HSI IML 40 N CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ART 25 S ABE 20 N NHK 40 W RIC 20 NNE SSU 30 SSE UNI 30 E DAY 40 SSE CGX 25 SW MKE 55 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 35 ESE BAM 25 WNW TWF 25 NW LND 55 ENE JAC 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 15 ENE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ECG 40 WSW BLF 15 ESE LEX 30 E MVN 10 SSW JEF 15 N HUT 25 SE EHA AMA 40 S CDS 40 S ADM 30 NNE PRX 55 ENE PBF 20 S HSV 25 SSW AHN 30 ENE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF MD/VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH CENTER OF MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL B.C. IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NEAR 42N/132W...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. IN THE NE...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND IN WAKE OF TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY W OF MSP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS NRN WI...AND EVENTUALLY MORE ESEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND INTO LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE N-S ORIENTED WHILE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE W...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD OVER NERN WY/SERN MT...PRIOR TO GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO SWRN SD/NWRN NEB BY 25/12Z. ...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF MD/VA... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER ERN WI EWD INTO THE UP AND LOWER MI BY 24/12Z. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED INITIALLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME LATER THIS MORNING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM W-E ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WITH PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. INFLUX OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2500-4500 J/KG/ AIR FROM THE WSW WHEN COUPLED WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF OH AND WRN NY/PA. GIVEN COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD...REACHING PORTIONS OF MD/VA TONIGHT. INITIALLY...MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF EVENT UNFOLDS AS EXPECTED...MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SHIFT TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH NWWD ADVECTION OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NEB PNHDL/ERN WY INTO SERN MT. CONVERGENCE INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /35-45 KTS IN LOWEST 0-6 KM AGL/ WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER S OVER SERN WY INTO WRN NEB...SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...HOWEVER MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM GROWTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ...CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB EWD INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF MCS OVER NWRN NEB/SWRN SD. SHOULD SYSTEM REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 24/12Z...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA. EVEN IF SYSTEM DECAYS PRIOR TO ONSET OF FORECAST PERIOD...REMNANT MCV INTERACTING WITH TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA. TONIGHT...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ. MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 12:44:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 07:44:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507241256.j6OCuBSq020920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241253 SWODY1 SPC AC 241252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BUF 25 SSE CXY 10 S BWI 30 SSW SHD 25 S CRW 50 E LUK 25 SW SBN 25 S DBQ HSI 25 W IML 35 N CYS 10 SE CPR 40 SE BIL 60 W MLS 35 NE MLS 60 SW MBG 30 W RWF 20 ESE OSH 30 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 35 ESE BAM 35 SSE BYI 50 ENE SUN 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W P35 35 ENE HLC 50 E DHT 60 W CSM 30 NW BVO 50 SW SZL 45 N SZL 35 W P35. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W 3B1 20 NNE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE PBF TUP 25 SSW HSV 30 SE CHA 50 WNW TRI 10 NNW SDF 15 WSW BLV 10 WSW POF 55 ENE PBF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN MODERATE NNWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING OUT OF THE MID SOUTH. FAST MOVING IMPULSES /APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/ WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT QUICKLY SEWD AND SHOULD FOCUS ONE OR MORE MCSS INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NRN CHESAPEAKE REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING MCSS NOW OVERSPREADING LOWER MI...WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WSWWD INTO CENTRAL MN/SERN SD. THESE SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL-ORGANIZED...AND MAY MERGE INTO ONE LARGER MCS/MCC OVER LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS YET TO DESTABILIZE EAST OF OH...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF WRN NY/PA. HOWEVER...INCREASING WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID MOISTURE RETURN EWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HEATING WILL BE STRONG INTO SWRN MI/IND/WRN OH THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING WELL DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP NNW-SSE FROM LOWER MI ACROSS OH BY THE LATE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...AND WLY LLJ NOSES EWD...WRN EDGE OF ONGOING MCS SHOULD INTENSIFY/ORGANIZE AND MAY RACE SSEWD AS A BOW ECHO SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY MOVE/PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN PA/FAR WRN NY/WV/NRN MD AND NRN/WRN VA WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING MCS...AND DEGREE OF RECOVERY IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SETTLES SSEWD INTO NRN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL/LOWER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS UNDER 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE AND CAP WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS STRONG HEATING OVERCOMES CAP AND SUPPORTS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL OVER MUCH OF NEB/SERN SD INTO IA...THOUGH SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS GIVEN DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ENEWD NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SIGNAL AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED PRIOR TO 21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES /35-45 KT FROM SFC-6 KM/ AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 16:11:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 11:11:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507241623.j6OGNt5N016300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241617 SWODY1 SPC AC 241616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 15 S BFD 45 W MRB 35 WNW SHD 25 NE BKW 20 SW CRW 40 W UNI 30 E FWA 20 NNW MLI 10 SW IML 50 N CYS 35 WSW DGW 55 S SHR 55 SW MLS 25 W GDV 30 NNW DIK 55 SE MBG 35 SSE EAU 15 WNW MTW 30 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS ...CONT... 45 W 3B1 25 W PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40 WNW IWD 10 S CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT 50 SE TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N JAC 20 SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE JAN 30 ENE LUL 10 WNW MGM 30 WSW ANB 25 NNE CSV 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF 20 SSE MVN 40 SSW JBR 55 E PBF GLH 15 NNE JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK 30 WNW SLN 20 E DDC 60 SSW LBL 15 W AMA 20 NE PVW 25 SW CSM 15 SSE END 20 NNW CNU 55 SSE OJC 50 N SZL 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 20 ENE CNK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.... ...LOWER MI/OH/WRN PA TO NEB/SD... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EWD OVER ONTARIO. S OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS NW WI AND FROM SRN MN INTO NRN IA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS SWWD AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO A LOW IN NW KS. A VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IS SPREADING EWD WITH THE WARM FRONT FROM WI/IL TO LOWER MI/INDIANA...THOUGH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. THIS CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ONCE WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S/100S. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE N-S ZONE OF WAA AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY E OF THE STRONGER CAP...FROM ERN LOWER MI INTO OH...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN NY/WRN PA AND WV BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS...THOUGH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT. FARTHER W...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER NRN NEB/SE SD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTER WITHIN A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE ROCKIES. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS TO WARM ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND CONVECTION MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO MAXIMIZED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK LOW INVOF EXTREME NE WY...AND THIS LOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HELP FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE NE WY AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED E OF THE MOUNTAINS...NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH TONIGHT ACROSS NW SD/SW ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 19:56:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 14:56:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507242008.j6OK8VSp022947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242005 SWODY1 SPC AC 242004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 15 S BFD 45 W MRB 35 WNW SHD 25 NE BKW 20 SW CRW 40 W UNI 30 E FWA 20 NNW MLI 10 SW IML 50 N CYS 35 WSW DGW 55 S SHR 55 SW MLS 25 W GDV 40 SSW P24 50 ESE MBG 35 SSE EAU 15 WNW MTW 30 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT 50 SE TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N JAC 20 SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40 WNW IWD 10 S CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 45 W 3B1 25 W PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 35 NE SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE JAN 30 ENE LUL 10 WNW MGM 30 WSW ANB 25 NNE CSV 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF 20 SSE MVN 40 SSW JBR 55 E PBF GLH 15 NNE JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK 30 WNW SLN 20 E DDC 60 SSW LBL 15 W AMA 20 NE PVW 25 SW CSM 15 SSE END 20 NNW CNU 55 SSE OJC 50 N SZL 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 20 ENE CNK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...LOWER MI TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD...AND NOW EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SEWD TO CENTRAL OH/WV. STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /MLCAPE UP TO 3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND BILLOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTED THIS AIR MASS REMAINED CAPPED. SOME COOLING AT MID LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN APPARENT WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN IA/SWRN WI MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER LOWER MI. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF STORM INITIATION...SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK SEWD OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...PARTS OF NEB/SERN SD EWD TO SWRN GREAT LAKES AREA... MCV/WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN NEB/SRN MN/IA TO WI THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SRN WI WSWWD ACROSS NRN IA TO NERN-CENTRAL NEB TO NWRN KS. A SECOND BOUNDARY...MOST LIKELY A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...EXTENDED FROM SRN MN TO CENTRAL WI. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WILL BE SLOW INTO THE EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO SWRN ND INTO SERN MT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NWRN SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 00:49:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 19:49:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507250101.j6P11565003484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250058 SWODY1 SPC AC 250057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CLE 45 NNE FWA 35 S CGX 15 WNW HSI LBF 15 NW BFF 20 NNE DGW 15 ESE GCC 30 SE 4BQ 55 ESE MLS 45 ESE GDV 10 NW DIK BIS 45 NW ABR 30 ENE ABR 45 WNW RWF 35 SSE EAU 15 SSE GRB 25 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 25 W PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 35 NE SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40 WNW IWD 10 S CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT 50 SE TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N JAC 20 SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MCB 30 ENE LUL 10 WNW MGM 20 NNE MCN AVL 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF STL 40 NW UNO 35 NNE HOT 15 NW MLU 20 N MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CNK 30 NE RSL 25 NNE DDC 45 ENE DHT 25 NW AMA 35 SSE AMA 35 W CSM 15 NNW END 20 SE EMP 25 SE OJC 50 ENE MKC 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 10 NE CNK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER MI... ...NERN NEB/SERN SD/SRN MN/IA EWD INTO SRN WI/NRN IL... STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM SE OF SUX TO N OF ALO. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE RESULTED IN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE 00Z OMA/DVN SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KTS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING INVOF OF FRONTAL ZONE IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING EWD ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL. INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ LATER TONIGHT FROM WRN OK/KS INTO ERN NEB WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WWD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INTO ERN NEB WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SD.... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER NWRN SD AND NERN WY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL REMAIN W OF REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE REGENERATION ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENENCE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT OWING TO MERGING/ORGANIZING COLD POOLS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1851. ...LOWER MI... 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A MODERATELY SHEARED AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 4000-4500 J/KG/ ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE W OF N-S WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF DTX SWD INTO CNTRL OH...AND S OF WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM N OF MBS WSWWD INTO NERN IA. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING STORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR APPEARS TO BE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SWD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...SLIGHT RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA... BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE E OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WLY LLJ AXIS COUPLED WITH A WEAKER CAP IS RESULTING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT N OF LAKE ERIE AND NEAR PSB. WHILE THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...POOR LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY OBSERVED ON 00Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 07/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 05:38:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 00:38:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507250550.j6P5oYLo021758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250548 SWODY1 SPC AC 250546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MTC 15 WNW CLE 35 NNW DAY 20 SW DNV 15 W UIN 30 N DDC 30 SSE LIC 25 WNW LAR 35 NNE CPR 60 ENE MBG 40 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 35 S SJT 35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX 15 N CBM 50 NW AHN 30 WSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 20 ENE LEX 15 NE MVN 25 NNW CNU 35 SSE GAG 40 NW MAF 65 S MRF ...CONT... 25 WNW LAX 20 S NID 50 NNW DRA 40 SW ELY 40 W DPG 30 W MLD 40 ENE SUN 70 S S80 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 45 W RRT 45 N BJI 20 E HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES INTO CNTRL ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO PHASING OF AMPLIFYING CNTRL CANADIAN TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING CNTRL U.S. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM NWRN NEB/SWRN SD AT 25/12Z TO LAKE MI OR LOWER MI BY 26/12Z. ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY FROM CNTRL NEB EWD ACROSS NRN IA INTO NRN IL/SRN WI WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF MIGRATORY LOW...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WI...AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO MT/WY AHEAD OF APPROACHING NRN ROCKIES TROUGH. WHILE ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON FROM SD/NEB EWD INTO IA/MN AND WI. APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IA...SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI. RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPLY-MIXED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NEB/KS. ...NEW ENGLAND TO THE NC COAST... MCS OR REMNANTS OF MCS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT 25/12Z OVER SRN/SERN PA POSSIBLY INTO THE DELMARVA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SYSTEM PRIOR TO WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD/SEWD THROUGH REGION. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO ERN NC. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND/OR MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 07/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 12:43:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 07:43:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507251255.j6PCtDOb021134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251252 SWODY1 SPC AC 251251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 25 W JXN 25 SSE CGX 30 ESE BRL 15 SSW STJ 30 N DDC 30 S LIC 25 NNW FCL 30 NNW SNY 15 N LBF 35 NNW BUB 30 NNE PIR 55 NE ABR 40 NNE MSP 40 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 35 S SJT 35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX 15 N CBM 50 NW AHN 30 WSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 20 ENE LEX 15 NE MVN 10 ENE CNU 30 NE CSM 40 NW MAF 65 S MRF ...CONT... 25 WNW LAX 20 S NID 50 NNW DRA 40 SW ELY 40 W DPG 30 W MLD 40 ENE SUN 70 S S80 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 40 W RRT 45 N BJI 45 W HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ALONG A LINE FROM NERN MN SSWWD INTO NERN NEB AND THEN WSWWD INTO NERN CO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN NEB/FAR SERN SD AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IA AND INTO WI LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG H25 JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE SSWLY LLJ WITH NOSE OF 35-40 KT H85 JET DEVELOPING INTO IA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT AS IT VEERS AND NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET-UP WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT... ESPECIALLY AS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE TODAY. PRIMARY NEGATIVE ATTM REMAINS ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/SRN MN AND ITS EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION/WARM FRONT LOCATION TODAY. CONVECTION MAY REINFORCE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TOO FAR SOUTH OVER IA FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO UTILIZE STRONGER WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ONGOING CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH STORMS SPREADING OUT OF/ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO IA/SRN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LLJ INCREASES. ONCE CAPPING BREAKS...ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY AND ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER IA/SRN MN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THOUGH STRONG SR-INFLOW AND MODEST/UNIFORM WLY FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR HP-SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT STORMS REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THIS REGION. IF ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN ROOTED INTO BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR AND NORTH OF E-W WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BOW ECHO COULD DEVELOP AND RACE ENEWD WITH PRONOUNCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MDT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD. REGARDLESS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL SPREADING FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW/STALL INTO SWRN NEB/NERN CO LATER TODAY AND SHOULD FOCUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM-CLUSTERS WITH THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SSEWD AFTER DARK...WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO NRN KS/NWRN MO. ...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... 12Z SOUNDING AT ALB INDICATED FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FOR 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE. REGION REMAINS AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC...AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL WEAKEN SURFACE CAP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMOUNT OF WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS INTO ERN/SRN NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGION REMAINS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. HOWEVER...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 00:02:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 19:02:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507260031.j6Q0VGMG016486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260028 SWODY1 SPC AC 260026 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE MTC 15 NE MFD 30 SW FDY 15 NE BMI 35 WNW UIN 10 SSE FLV 35 NE DDC 45 NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 25 WNW LIC 15 ESE FCL 40 ENE CYS 20 NNW LBF 25 ESE BBW OLU 50 NE MSP 45 SE ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW HTS 35 NNW SSU 20 S LBE 25 ESE AOO 15 W BWI 35 NNE RIC 40 S RIC 15 ESE DAN 45 WNW GSO 30 SE 5I3 25 NW 5I3 25 SSW HTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 45 NW MLS 35 N DIK 40 E DVL 40 E TVF 45 WNW CMX 65 ENE CMX 15 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30 SSE LRD 25 SE CRP 45 NW BPT 10 NNW GGG 15 ENE PGO SGF 15 S CNU 10 WSW ICT 25 ESE GAG 40 ESE PVW 25 NNW MAF 90 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 SW CZZ 35 WNW TRM 60 WSW DRA 60 N DRA 45 NNW P38 25 SSE DPG 50 NNE BPI 60 SW MQM 55 WNW 27U 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PIE 10 NE VRB ...CONT... 20 ESE ILM 45 NW FLO 25 NW CAE 25 ENE MCN 20 E ABY 30 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 65 N BUF 10 NNE BUF JHW 25 WSW BFD 15 NNW DUJ 10 NW AVP 20 NNW POU 30 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JAN 30 W TCL 10 NW LOZ 35 N SDF 45 ENE MVN 25 ENE POF 20 ENE LIT 35 N MLU 30 NW JAN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW SE OF RST WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS FAR SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH E-CNTRL NEB AND INTO E-CNTRL CO. ALOFT...EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOT SHOWS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN...EMBEDDED WITHIN MODESTLY STRONG /I.E. 30-40 KTS/ WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT OVER SERN MN INTO CNTRL/NRN MN...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED MID-LEVEL ROTATION OWING TO LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR N OF FRONTAL ZONE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE WHILE RESIDING IN ZONE OF STRONGER SHEAR AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT AND MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION OF MORE LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURE FROM E OF MSP SWD TO THE IA BORDER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A BOW ECHO ON COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE EWD WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHIFTING EWD INTO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SW...SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE HAS FORMED ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL IA INTO N-CNTRL KS. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS COUPLED WITH ORGANIZING/MERGING COLD POOLS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA AND NERN KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA... LONG-LIVED MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERED HIGHER ELEVATION OF WV. MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT EWD TO CHESAPEAKE BAY MAY SUPPORT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OR REINTENSIFICATION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS GUST FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 04:54:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 23:54:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507260523.j6Q5NDBi006410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260521 SWODY1 SPC AC 260519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PBG 10 SSW ALB 15 ENE ABE 20 SSW PAH 20 NE FYV 40 WSW JLN 45 NE CNU 10 NE MMO 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 W HOU 25 W ESF 35 W MLU 25 N SHV 10 N TYR 45 WNW AUS 30 SE DRT ...CONT... CZZ 30 N RAL 45 ENE NID 50 NE DRA SGU 25 W 4BL 20 WSW GJT 50 SSE RKS 50 NNW CPR 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 55 S FAR 30 N PIR 20 S BFF 45 NW AKO 20 NE LIC 45 NE LAA 40 N DDC 30 NNE RSL 15 SE DBQ 20 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NY SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MO... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO SWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO QUEBEC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL LOWER MI AT 26/12Z WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...ERN NY SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MO... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OR A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM VICINITY OF LOWER MI SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO KS. DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/ WITHIN INFLOW AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM NY SWWD INTO THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY INTO NY BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL/SRN MO...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE N ACROSS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. NONETHELESS...DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...OK WWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH REGION...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM CO FRONT RANGE SWD INTO CNTRL NM. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 10000-2000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 12:09:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 07:09:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507271238.j6RCc4Km008004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271235 SWODY1 SPC AC 271234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 20 E RIC 40 NE CHO 20 NNE HGR 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 30 NE VOK SPW 30 SSW IML 20 S RTN 15 NNW ABQ 25 SE TCS 20 WSW GDP 65 NNE BGS 25 SSE OKC 15 N BLV 30 E TOL ...CONT... 40 SSE VCT 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT 25 WSW BIH 10 NNE BIH 45 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 25 S DRA 55 NE LAS 35 SSW BCE 30 NNW U17 20 S VEL 40 E RWL 35 NNE CPR 25 W SHR 55 WNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG 20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA ACROSS MID ATLANTIC AND SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND... ...CHESAPEAKE INTO NEW ENGLAND... STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT STEADILY EWD AND MOVE ALONG OR OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN VERY MOIST AND BECOME QUITE BUOYANT THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG PRE-FRONTAL HEATING BOOSTING MLCAPES INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE FROM VA POSSIBLY INTO EASTERN ME. IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NRN VA/MD INTO SERN NY WHERE A TRIPLE POINT LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND NEAR THE N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MID DAY. MODERATE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS... WITH STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION INCREASING THE FARTHER NORTH THEY DEVELOP INTO STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT OVER THE DELMARVA...INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM STRONG HEATING AND LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES INDICATES MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS SEVERAL COMPLEXES/LINES SPREAD TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL OVERSPREAD ND AND THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT QUICKLY ESEWD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS FROM STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...SRN AZ... MID LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND ALLOW MODEST ENELY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD SRN AZ TODAY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...12Z TUS SOUNDING INDICATED MID LEVELS ALSO REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND WILL SUPPORT INCREASED STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MODEST STEERING FLOW SHOULD CARRY STORMS WSWWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 07/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 16:13:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 11:13:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507271642.j6RGgC9m003763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271629 SWODY1 SPC AC 271628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 10 S RIC 10 SE SHD 20 WNW MRB 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT 25 WSW BIH 10 NNE BIH 45 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 25 S DRA 55 NE LAS 35 SSW BCE 30 NNW U17 20 S VEL 40 NNW LAR 45 NNE DGW 50 ENE BIL 45 N HVR ...CONT... 60 W ANJ 15 SSW CWA 15 NNE SPW 30 NW SUX 15 NE BUB 20 S IML 15 NW CAO 45 WNW TCC 55 SSE SAF 35 ENE ONM 15 NNW ALM 25 S CNM 40 SE BGS 30 ENE SEP 25 SE FYV 15 NNW ARG EVV 15 E ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG 20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO ERN MAINE.... ...MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN IL/LOWER MI AREA AS OF MID MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TODAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD NRN MN/WRN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT NOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM DRT TO MEM TO ROC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT /N OF UCA/ DEVELOPS ENEWD TOWARD DOWN EAST MAINE BY EARLY TONIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN NY TO ERN VA/NC. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MOIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F FROM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN MAINE TO ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF STATES. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE/ORIENTATION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SHORT LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND PERHAPS A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...MN/SE ND THIS AFTERNOON... A COMPLEX SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES ARE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND DAKOTAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/TROUGH ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN. E OF THE THICKER CLOUDS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...FRONT RANGE OF CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 45-50 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE FRONT RANGE. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SSE MOVING STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ...DESERT SW... RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE /LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AZ INTO EXTREME SE CA/SRN NV. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK OVER THIS AREA...THUS ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 19:18:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 14:18:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507271948.j6RJm2Pu030546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271945 SWODY1 SPC AC 271944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 15 SSW RIC 35 E LYH 50 SW AVL 25 NNW RMG 15 WSW HSV 15 NE MSL 35 NE CSV 35 SSW EKN 20 NW MRB 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT BIH 40 S U31 70 ESE U31 P38 SGU 35 S BCE 30 SSE BCE 30 NNW U17 20 S VEL 40 NNW LAR 35 SE DGW CDR 45 ESE CDR 20 WSW MHN 20 S IML LAA LVS ABQ TCS ALM ELP MRF BWD PRX PGO DYR UNI DUJ UCA MPV 20 SSE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ANJ CWA ATY MBG 40 SSW REJ 4BQ SHR 40 NNE BIL GGW 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG 20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND THE TN VALLEY.... ...TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO ATLANTIC STATES... SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX. FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF BROKEN NARROW LINE OF STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT...FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SLOW SOUTHWARD ADVANCE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...EXTENDING JUST AHEAD OF FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. BUT...MEAN FLOW REGIME /ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 KT/ WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH FLOW REGIME IS WEAKER WEST OF THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE COLD POOLS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A BIT MORE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SOLIDIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS...OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... MOISTURE IS MARGINAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MID-LEVEL COOLING ABOVE PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL OVERSPREADING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONGEST CELLS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS... BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ...WESTERN STATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AIDED BY WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER INTO THE OREGON COAST. HIGH IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS OCCURS...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST APPEARS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO...WHERE MID-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 07/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 00:26:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 19:26:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507280055.j6S0t8Pm018910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280052 SWODY1 SPC AC 280051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ECG 50 N RWI 25 SE LYH 35 SSE CHO 30 W NHK 30 SSE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNW ANJ 30 NW IMT 55 NNE EAU 25 SSW STC 10 ESE ABR 15 N MBG 30 SE DIK 30 WNW DIK 35 WNW SDY 60 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 NNE BFL 60 SSE BIH 40 SW DRA 25 WSW LAS 30 NNW IGM 50 SW GCN 50 ESE GCN 55 SSE U17 50 NNE 4BL 25 WSW EGE 40 NNW 4FC 10 ENE FCL 40 NNW LIC 35 ENE PUB 10 SSW TAD 25 S SAF 20 NNE TCS 30 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 40 WNW P07 40 SSE MAF 40 NNE SJT ACT 15 SSW TYR 50 WSW HOT 30 NNE HOT 60 SW MEM TUP 10 W HSV 40 SSE LOZ 20 SSE PKB 20 WSW MGW 50 ENE EKN 30 SSE MRB 35 NW ILG 20 SSW BDL 20 WNW PWM 30 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG SRN FRINGES OF EJECTING SPEED MAX. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN A FEW HOURS EARLIER. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL SOON MOVE OFF THE DE/NJ COAST AS STRONGEST COLD POOL FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF ONGOING SLIGHT RISK REGION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS IT APPEARS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED FOR MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THAT CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. GIVEN THE SURGE ACROSS NRN VA/MD...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET EVOLVE ALONG BOUNDARY...THEN DROP SWD INTO SERN VA...OR PERHAPS EXTREME NRN NC LATER THIS EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DARROW.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 05:14:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 00:14:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507280543.j6S5h4Rr009497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280540 SWODY1 SPC AC 280539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 35 ENE CAE 30 WNW AND 30 ESE TYS 40 SW BLF 25 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BCE 25 ESE 4BL 20 SSE ASE LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 35 SSW SLC 45 NE BCE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 20 NNE JMS 65 S FAR 20 WSW BRD 55 ESE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MTC 30 NE IRK 25 SE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 25 S ALM 15 WSW MAF 30 WNW ACT 40 N ELD 60 ENE BWG 25 N MGW 30 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 SSE BFL 55 SSW BIH 25 WNW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 E BNO 45 ESE EPH 30 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... TRAILING PORTIONS OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW DOWNSTREAM...LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG SWD-SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE CAROLINAS SUGGEST MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS SUB CLOUD RH VALUES WILL LOWER ENOUGH TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ DEVELOPS FROM NWRN KS INTO WRN SD. AS SFC PRESSURES BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS...WEAK SFC FRONT WILL DROP SWD INTO NRN NEB BEFORE STALLING AND RETURNING NWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...ALONG WITH MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. VEERING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL SUPPORT WEAK ROTATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED HAIL OR STRONG WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY BUT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 12:10:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 07:10:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507281239.j6SCdoHo031655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281237 SWODY1 SPC AC 281235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 40 ESE AHN 20 NNE ATL 25 ENE CHA 20 NNW TRI 25 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL 15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W 4HV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 SSE BFL 55 SSW BIH 25 WNW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 W BNO 45 ESE EPH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 70 NW DVL 20 NNE JMS 45 SSW FAR 35 NNW AXN 50 SE ELO ...CONT... 55 NNE MTC 30 NE IRK 25 SE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 25 S ALM 15 WSW MAF 20 SW FTW 25 SW LIT 60 ENE BWG AOO 20 SW JFK ...CONT... 60 S CRP 55 WNW MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... ...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT... SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SWWD INTO WRN SC/NRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING VIS IMAGERY INDICATES AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY CLOUD FREE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S. AS FRONT SHIFTS SWD BEFORE STALLING...CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF MODERATE WLY FLOW AND LEAVE MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS. STORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE FRONT AND INVOF SEA BREEZES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS... WITH MOST LIKELY SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN GA ENEWD INTO ERN NC. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY SSEWD ACROSS MN AND NRN WI TODAY AHEAD OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THOUGH NAM BE OVER FORECASTING AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /I.E. NAM FORECASTS MID 60F SFC DEW POINTS/...COMBINATION OF ADVECTION...DOWNWARD MIXING AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD INCREASE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. GIVEN 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF NEAR SEVERE HAIL/WIND...DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...INTO THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WEDGE OF 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN SELY FLOW INTO WRN NEB/SWRN SD AS SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT A RELATIVELY DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TODAY...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+ KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR. THUS...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT OR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERSIST AS THEY MOVE SSEWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THEY COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW ATTM WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPPING...AND WILL THUS OPT TO LEAVE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW. LATER TONIGHT...MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED STORMS ALONG NOSE OF 40+ KT SLY LLJ WHICH WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 16:10:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 11:10:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507281639.j6SGdFtp018268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281634 SWODY1 SPC AC 281633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SAV 40 ESE MCN 20 NNE ATL 50 S TYS 40 E TRI 15 SW DAN 30 NNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL 15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W 4HV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MBS 35 NNW CGX 15 E OTM 15 N FNB 30 ESE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 20 SSE ALM 20 SW MAF 40 ENE SJT 35 W ACT 40 SE HOT 55 E BWG AOO 20 SW JFK ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 20 NNE JMS 65 N ATY 15 S AXN 45 ENE CMX ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 30 SSE BFL 45 E FAT 35 WSW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 W BNO 45 ESE EPH 60 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.... ...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... THE SYNOPTIC FRONT HAS DRIFTED SWD INTO SRN NC AND THE PIEDMONT OF SC...AND THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS W ACROSS N GA/AL. THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK S OF THE FRONT...AND VERY MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS IN THE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY. STILL...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL. ...HIGH PLAINS... THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN EXTENDS WWD ACROSS SD...AND THEN NWWD INTO SE MT AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN MT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY...AND LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/WAA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INVOF WRN SD BY EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY FORM LATE TODAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...OR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE W IN NE WY/SRN MT...AND THIS CONVECTION COULD PERSIST AS A SMALL MCS TONIGHT ACROSS WRN SD/NEB. DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ...FL THIS AFTERNOON... 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY INLAND OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK ELY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL ALLOW INITIAL DEVELOPING STORMS TO STAY ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOCAL STORM INTERACTIONS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MN/WI... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NW WI. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AUGMENTED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 19:20:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 14:20:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507281949.j6SJnLBW015141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281947 SWODY1 SPC AC 281945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CHS 10 SSW AGS 15 N AHN 25 E TYS 35 SE 5I3 20 ESE SSU 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL 15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W 4HV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 25 N BFL 40 SW TVL 25 NNW SVE 60 WSW BNO 55 ESE EPH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 20 NNW JMS 60 S FAR 30 E AXN 35 S DLH 65 NE CMX ...CONT... 15 NNE MBS 35 NNW CGX 20 ESE OTM 35 SE HSI 15 NNW HLC 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 20 SSE ALM 20 SW MAF 40 ENE SJT 35 W ACT 40 SE HOT 45 ENE BWG PKB 35 E AOO 15 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN VA...FAR ERN TN...NC AND SC... ...EAST COAST/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/FL... AN UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...ASCENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WV EXTENDING SSWWD TO AL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN ERN SC...ERN GA AND FL. A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST CONSIDERING OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 20 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... A MESOLOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN MN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT TAKING THE STORMS ESEWD INTO CNTRL WI...SERN MN AND NE IA BY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM SE MT EXTENDING ESEWD INTO CNTRL SD. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN SD SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. STILL...SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. THE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ..BROYLES.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 00:27:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 19:27:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507290056.j6T0uCtb014075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290053 SWODY1 SPC AC 290052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E GSB 25 W SOP 25 SW HKY 40 WNW HKY 50 E TRI 25 SW ROA 55 SSW RIC 25 E GSB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 20 WSW BIL 45 NE MLD 25 NW DPG 20 N MLF 25 W PGA INW 20 NNE SAD 60 E DUG ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 N BFL 40 SW TVL 25 NNW SVE 60 WSW BNO 25 ENE LWS 50 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW P07 65 SSE MAF 25 E SJT 25 W CLL 40 W POE 45 NNE HEZ 45 NE CSV 35 NW EKN 15 WSW MRB 25 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE EAR 30 ENE SNY 30 SSE 81V 50 E MLS 45 NW DIK 40 W ABR 15 W FSD 20 ENE LNK 15 SSE EAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OSC 30 NNE MKG 45 S LSE 25 E MKT 20 ENE MSP 40 ESE RHI 10 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...CAROLINAS... 00Z SOUNDING FROM GSO APPEARS PARTLY CONTAMINATED BY DEEP CONVECTION...YET THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STILL EXHIBIT A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG WHERE AIRMASS HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROPAGATING NWD ACROSS NC...APPARENTLY AIDED BY MARINE SURGE FROM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NNEWD TOWARD THE VA BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED. UNTIL THEN...MORE ROBUST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING REDUCES OVERALL THREAT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION...SEWD INTO CNTRL NEB. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALLOWED SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC ALONG BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AS LLJ INCREASES. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED-SCT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WEAK INSTABILITY DOES NOT FAVOR MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OR PERHAPS GUSTY DOWNBURSTS. ..DARROW.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 05:25:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 00:25:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507290554.j6T5sIMJ005245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290551 SWODY1 SPC AC 290549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MQT 25 NNW DBQ 50 SSW IRK 25 E TOP 40 WNW CNK 45 SW EAR 35 SSE SNY 20 ESE DEN 40 SSW PUB 30 SW RTN 10 NE ABQ 30 SE ONM 45 W ROW 25 NNW HOB 45 NE BGS 35 ENE ACT 20 WNW POE 20 ENE HEZ 40 SE MKL 60 SW LEX 25 ENE PKB 30 N CXY 25 WNW BDR 15 E BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 W PMD 30 ENE BFL 40 E FAT 40 ESE TVL 15 WSW SVE 35 N RBL 40 WSW MHS 25 E CEC 50 SE OTH 70 N BNO 45 SE GTF 65 NNW GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S... DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 IN...WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY. WITHIN THIS PLUME...OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESULTANT MLCAPE VALUES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG IF CLOUDINESS INDEED HOLDS AS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITHIN OTHERWISE MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST THINKING IS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AS CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERTURNING AND MEAGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...BLACK HILLS REGION... UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO SERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A MIGRATION OF WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED DISTURBANCES FROM THE GREAT BASIN/INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IT APPEARS ONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM NV INTO WY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ELY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN SD INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR 30/00Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE ANY WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM QUICKLY INTO THE MO VALLEY REGION WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 12:20:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 07:20:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507291248.j6TCmxSX028870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291246 SWODY1 SPC AC 291245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MHN 25 SSW CDR 65 NE DGW 15 SSE 81V REJ 10 SW PHP 25 WSW VTN 40 WNW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 W PMD 15 SW BFL 20 NE FAT 25 S TVL 15 WSW SVE 35 N RBL 40 E EKA 30 ENE CEC 50 SE OTH 30 NNW RDM 45 SE GTF 80 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 15 NW PIA 45 NNW COU 25 WNW FLV 25 N CNK 45 SW EAR 40 ENE AKO 25 ENE COS 40 SSW PUB 30 NNW LVS 10 NE ABQ 40 SW 4CR 25 WNW ROW 25 NNW HOB 65 NE BGS 55 SW LFK POE 25 N HEZ 40 SE MKL 60 SW LEX 30 NNE PKB 30 ENE DUJ 25 WNW BDR 25 SW HYA ...CONT... 45 E TOL FWA 25 E SBN 15 S GRR 25 ENE MBS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM ID/MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ID/NV WILL ROTATE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING OVER WESTERN SD BY 00Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND BIGHORNS WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID INITIATION. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z AS DIURNAL COOLING STRENGTHENS CAP. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SC/GA. THIS AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR MASS...COUPLED WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL POSE A RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 16:07:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 11:07:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507291636.j6TGaWVM002403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291626 SWODY1 SPC AC 291624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 15 NW PIA 25 NW COU FLV 25 N CNK 45 SW EAR 40 ENE AKO 25 ENE COS 40 SSW PUB 30 NNW LVS 10 NE ABQ 40 SW 4CR 35 ENE ROW 25 ENE PVW 10 ESE SEP 55 SW LFK POE 25 N HEZ 40 SE MKL 60 SW LEX 30 NNE PKB 30 ENE DUJ 25 WNW BDR 25 SW HYA ...CONT... 15 ENE PBG 25 SSW ROC 40 E TOL 25 N FWA 10 SSW GRR 30 ENE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 W PMD 25 WNW BFL 20 NE FAT 25 S TVL 15 WSW SVE 35 N RBL 40 E EKA 20 E CEC 50 NW 4LW 55 SE DLS 15 NE S80 30 NW HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS WITH A MDT W/WNWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. MONSOON MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING EWD FROM SRN ID INTO WY/SERN MT AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN ND SEWD TO E OF BLACK HILLS. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED SHEAR COUPLED WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE THE BETTER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THIS AREA WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN MT/NERN WY IN THE MONSOON PLUME. LIMITED CAPE AND HIGH BASES SUGGEST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. STORMS COULD INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVES ACROSS SURFACE TROUGH INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SD AND POSSIBLY NE. HAVE DROPPED SLGT RISK FROM EARLIER FORECAST AS IT APPEARS SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE E OF BLACK HILLS WHICH RAISES UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MANY AND WHEN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP GIVEN THE APPARENT CAP. ...SWRN U.S... SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE UNDERWAY IMPERIAL VALLEY AND SWRN/SCENTRAL AZ. THE PREVAILING SELY STEERING FLOW S OF 4-CORNERS HIGH WILL FAVOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PROPAGATING WWD INTO LOWER DESERT VALLEY. WITH MLCAPE CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW..A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS...WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...SERN STATES... A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED AIR MASS REMAINS TO THE S OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WRN CAROLINAS TO NRN GA...WITH STRONG MORNING HEATING FROM SERN NC TO SERN GA. WITH SOUNDINGS IN AREA INDICATING ONLY WEAK CAP AND POTENTIALLY MLCAPES TO ABOVE 3000 J/G THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON FIRST VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM COAST AS WELL AS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS. ..HALES/SCHNEIDER.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 19:15:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 14:15:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507291944.j6TJiobL021308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291942 SWODY1 SPC AC 291941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 40 SW RFD 35 NE UIN 40 N COU 35 N SZL 35 S BIE 35 ENE MCK 35 NE LIC 40 SSW PUB 15 SW SAF 35 ENE ONM 35 WNW ROW 40 S LBB 10 N SEP 40 W LFK 15 NNE POE 20 NE HEZ 30 WNW MSL 25 WSW LOZ 10 W HGR 20 ENE NEL ...CONT... 15 ENE PBG 25 SSW ROC 35 E TOL 35 W TOL 30 SSW AZO 15 SW GRR 45 WNW MBS 50 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 20 NE LAX 40 WSW FAT 45 E UKI 35 E ACV 25 SW MFR 75 NNE MFR 40 S PDT 55 S S06 35 NNW HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL. THE CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND WEAK FORCING DUE TO AN ERN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE FORMING NEAR AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM CNTRL GA TO ERN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 20 KT SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. MOIST PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF SFC HEATING. ...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN SD AROUND THE NERN END OF A SWRN US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ONGOING IN ERN NEB. AS THE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A FEW CELLS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SFC-BASED STORMS DEVELOP BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. FARTHER WEST IN THE BLACK HILLS...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR THIS EVENING. THE CELLS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE HAIL THREAT BRIEF AND MARGINAL. ...SW DESERTS... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH IS TRANSPORTING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE SW DESERTS. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED STORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA...AZ AND NV. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT NWD INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 00:33:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 19:33:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507300101.j6U11pZX003941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300059 SWODY1 SPC AC 300058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 35 WSW RHI 25 NNE LSE 20 NNE MCW 25 S FSD 25 NE VTN 40 E DGW 10 WNW RWL 20 NE VEL 25 NE 4HV 70 WNW GUP 45 N SVC 25 S CNM 30 NNE BGS 10 N SEP 35 NNE CLL 20 SW LCH 30 ESE LFT 35 SW MSL 35 SW LOZ 10 W HGR 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SE PMD 15 SE BIH 40 W TVL 35 E ACV 25 SW MFR 75 NNE MFR 40 S PDT 45 W MSO 40 S GTF 50 NE LWT 50 NNW GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM FGZ AND TUS DEPICT DEEP ELY COMPONENT ON SWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT REGION BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL TEMPERATURES COOL...ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER RAIN CORES...ESPECIALLY FROM YUMA COUNTY AZ...NWD INTO SRN NV. ...SERN U.S... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL BUT OVERTURNED DAYTIME BUOYANCY WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER. NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL INTERACTIONS COULD ENHANCE STORM UPDRAFTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEANINGFUL SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...NRN U.S... PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION MAY AT SOME POINT ALLOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE ALONG ERN EDGE OF CAP. SOUNDINGS FROM BIS TO MPX SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE SHOULD DEVELOP WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MEAGER AT BEST. PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE APPEAR TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER MCKENZIE COUNTY ND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME ELEVATED AS IT DRIFTS EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 05:26:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 00:26:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507300555.j6U5tmIN012105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300550 SWODY1 SPC AC 300549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LGB 45 ESE PRB 40 NE MRY 50 N UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 15 E GDV 55 N ISN ...CONT... 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 15 E BEH 40 SW RFD 50 NE FNB 30 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 30 E LBB 30 ENE ABI TPL 50 ENE CLL 45 E LFK 20 ENE MLU 10 N CBM 30 ENE MSL 35 WNW CSV 25 ESE LOZ 40 ENE 5I3 45 WSW MRB 25 NNW BWI 30 SW ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN U.S.... ...NRN U.S... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS ISOLATED-SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID DAY-AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SPREADING INTO ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN BROAD UPPER RIDGING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SWD EXTENSION OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ND BY EARLY EVENING WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS IF CONVECTION DOES EVOLVE. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS NEAR 31/00Z...BRIEFLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SERN U.S... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. AGAIN TODAY. LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND EARLY STORM INITIATION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SWRN U.S... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MEXICO INTO SRN AZ SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER CORES. GRADUAL MOISTENING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL RAISE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS BY EVENING. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 12:21:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 07:21:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507301250.j6UCo7kh000914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301248 SWODY1 SPC AC 301247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE MQT 40 SSW IMT 60 N EAU 10 SSW DLH 40 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 15 E BEH 25 SSE PIA 50 NE FNB 30 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 35 WSW CDS 30 ENE ABI TPL 50 ENE CLL 45 E LFK 20 NW MLU 25 NE PBF 30 SW MKL 35 WNW CSV 20 ESE LOZ 40 NE 5I3 15 ESE MGW 25 NNW BWI 30 SW ACY ...CONT... 40 S RAL 40 NNW DAG 40 N SAC 60 NNW UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 15 E GDV 55 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI... ...ND/MN... LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER MOST OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FIELD. ONE FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ND/EASTERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER ALB/MAN...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF ND BY EARLY EVENING. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...MN/WI/MI... LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEB INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI BY 00Z. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET IS LIKELY TO AID IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LAKE MI DURING THE EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS STORMS MOVE INTO LOWER MI. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TODAY FROM AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. STORMS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS. ...AZ... WEAK EASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN AZ TODAY. THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/BOTHWELL.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 15:39:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 10:39:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507301608.j6UG84dZ031670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301555 SWODY1 SPC AC 301554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RRT 30 ENE FAR 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE MQT 40 SSW IMT 60 N EAU 10 SSW DLH 25 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S RAL 40 NNW DAG 40 N SAC 55 SSE EKA 45 SE OTH 15 WSW DLS 35 SW S06 35 NNE 3DU LWT 85 WNW MLS 45 SW OLF 65 NNE OLF ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 20 NE SBN 25 ENE PIA 50 NE FNB 45 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 50 E LBB 45 NNE ABI TPL 45 SSW CLL 40 WSW HOU 35 W BPT 25 ENE LCH 20 NW MLU 25 NE PBF 10 SE MKL 35 WNW CSV 20 ESE LOZ 40 NE 5I3 15 ESE MGW 20 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ND AND NWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NRN WI... ...MN ARROWHEAD TO WRN MI AND NRN WI... STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA AS 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM ERN NEB TO WRN LS IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD. SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM WRN MN SEWD INTO SRN WI WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE FRONT AS NOTED ON 12Z INL SOUNDING CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF ARROWHEAD. 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NERN MN INTO WRN UP OF MICHIGAN AND NRN WI THRU THE DAY AS THE MDT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LARGE WRN UPPER HI TRAVERSES THIS AREA. ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND GRADUALLY WORK SEWD INTO NERN MN AND WRN LS. SHEAR AND MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS ALTHOUGH SOME WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATER IF STORM DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THREAT INITIALLY ACROSS NERN MN WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN UP MI AND NRN WI BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...ND/NWRN MN... CURRENT STRONG CAP WILL STEADILY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THRU THE 90S ACROSS ND. WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL ND EWD INTO NWRN MN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK S/WV IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TODAY WHERE SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST INITIATE. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO NRN ND/NWRN MN. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THE 30-40KT 500 MB WLY FLOW ALONG CANADIAN BORDER...COUPLED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AGAIN WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. LOCALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30 F T/TD SPREADS. ...SWRN U.S... MONSOON MOISTURE NOW COVERS MUCH OF SWRN U.S. EXTENDING NEWD THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS REMAINS OVER THE SERN THIRD OF AZ THIS AM WHICH WILL REDUCE HEATING SUFFICIENTLY TO REDUCE THREAT OF SEVERE IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER FROM WRN AZ/SERN CA NWD INTO SRN NV/SWRN UT THE COMBINED HEATING AND NOW MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A MDTLY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS ALL OF THIS AREA WITH STEERING FLOW LESS THAN 10KT. THUS SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE UNORGANIZED WITH STORMS DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROPAGATING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. BOTH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SERN U.S... STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. WITH EXTENSIVE INLAND CLOUD COVER...THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LANDS WHERE THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH HEATING. VERY WEAK SHEAR...THUS PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE DOMINANT MODE. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 19:35:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 14:35:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507302003.j6UK3woe007675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302000 SWODY1 SPC AC 301958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RRT 25 S TVF 35 N ABR 30 S MBG 55 SSE Y22 25 NW Y22 60 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W OSH 35 E EAU 45 NNE BRD 50 SW INL 10 ESE INL 70 ESE ELO 45 NNE RHI 40 NNE GRB 10 WNW MTW 10 E OSH 35 W OSH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE OSC 20 NE SBN 25 ENE PIA 50 NE FNB 45 ENE GLD 25 S LHX 50 SSE RTN 15 NW CVS 35 NE BGS 45 SSE AUS 30 E PSX ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 25 E EDW 60 ESE FAT 45 S RBL 35 NE ACV 45 SE OTH 15 WSW DLS 35 SW S06 45 NNW HLN 85 NNE BIL 45 SSW OLF 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 50 N POE 50 WSW MEM 40 NE LEX 20 SSW IPT 30 SW POU 20 S GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CNTRL MT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SFC TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WCNTRL ND. EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY UNSTABILE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION INITIATES...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF ND AND ACROSS WRN SD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN ND INTO NW MN BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN MN. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NCNTRL MN AND CNTRL WI. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT ARE IN THE 60S F WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AS STORMS INITIATE AND DRIFT SEWD ACROSS NE MN AND NRN WI. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS ERN GA...ERN SC AND ERN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH VAD WIND PROFILERS IN THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOWING WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE CELLS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ...DESERT SW... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING ABOUT 15 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS. ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 00:30:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 19:30:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507310059.j6V0xErs017984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310056 SWODY1 SPC AC 310055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ELO 30 SE TVF 45 WSW FAR 10 SE MBG 35 E Y22 45 S P24 45 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE MTC 35 ESE MKE 15 NE CID 30 NE FNB 30 SW GLD 20 NW TAD 40 NNW LVS 40 SE SAF 35 ENE 4CR 50 NNE ROW 40 ESE CVS 60 NE BGS 25 WSW BWD 45 SSW PSX ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 20 NW NID 55 SSE TVL 45 S RBL 35 NE ACV 35 WNW MFR 15 NNE RDM 20 NE ALW MSO 25 ESE LVM 25 NNE SHR 35 N GCC 40 W REJ 60 SW DIK 45 NNW DIK 70 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 15 NW ESF 35 W UOX 25 NNE LOZ 35 WSW EKN 15 ESE AOO 15 WSW CXY 30 WNW DOV 20 WSW ACY 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND NWRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS... LEE-TROUGH EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNED ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FROM MT/ND TO NRN MN. WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT EXISTS ATOP THIS BOUNDARY ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE WCNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FASTER FLOW AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION HAS INHIBITED MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF STORMS MANAGING TO INITIATE NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH OVER SCNTRL ND...AND ACROSS WRN SD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/LOW ACROSS NRN ND AND INTO NWRN MN THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AIDS IN FURTHER WEAKENING THE CAP. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS ND WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING...TIME OF DAY...AND STRENGTH OF THE CAP. ...UPR MS RIVER VLY TO NRN GREAT LAKES... GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION RESULTS IN LOWER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS WI AND MI TONIGHT. ONE SMALL MCS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF DECAYING ACROSS THE U.P. AND NRN LWR MI THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN LTG ACTIVITY INDICATED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAGNITUDE OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEAK LLJ DIRECTED TOWARD THE REGION...SHOULD ACT TO MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE REGIME FOR A LATE NIGHT MCS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF AN MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE NRN PLAINS CONVECTION...OR IF WEAK CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS WI WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK. EITHER SCENARIO MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...LWR CO RIVER VLY... MONSOON MOISTURE AND HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN CA AND SWRN AZ. HIGHER TERRAIN PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS NOW DRIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. PULSE AND MULTICELL INTERACTIONS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS FROM PHX AREA WWD ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 04:57:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 23:57:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507310526.j6V5QYdv016042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310524 SWODY1 SPC AC 310522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE OSC 20 SSW MBL 25 W AUW 30 E STC 45 WNW BRD 20 NW BJI 40 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 35 ESE SLE 40 E EPH 30 NNW CTB ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 30 NNW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 35 S PHP 20 NNW 9V9 60 NW ABR 60 N MOT ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TOL 20 E SBN 40 W RFD 25 WNW FLV 25 ESE RSL 55 NNW GCK 40 NE LVS 45 NNW 4CR 40 SSW 4CR 25 NW GDP 30 WSW FST 65 NE P07 50 SW JCT 15 ENE HDO 55 NW VCT 35 NNE CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 W ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN/WI/MI... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE WCNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH A BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW ARCING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST U.S...INTO SCNTRL CANADA...AND THEN BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...IS FCST TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY IN NWLY FLOW WHILE SPREADING FROM MN TO ERN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION FROM BAJA/MEXICO. THIS PLUME NOW EXTENDS AROUND THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...AND ROCKIES. TROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BENEATH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE CONUS. ...UPR MS VLY/NRN GREAT LAKES... AN MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY FROM NRN MN TO NRN MI. THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK LLJ...AND LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING SEWD WITHIN NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER... PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TOPPED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALIGNED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN NY... WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ESEWD INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FROM THE SRN TIER/HUDSON VLY AREAS INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING. IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THAN CURRENTLY FCST...PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO SLGT RISK IN A LATER OUTLOOK. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 12:17:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 07:17:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507311246.j6VCkEfW026105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311244 SWODY1 SPC AC 311242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N MTC 25 NNW MKG 40 ENE VOK 30 E STC 45 WNW BRD 20 NW BJI 40 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 25 E SLE 10 WNW EPH 80 WNW FCA ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 30 NNW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 35 S PHP 20 SE 9V9 55 NNE ABR 70 W RRT ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE TOL 20 E SBN 30 NE MLI FLV 25 ESE RSL 55 NNW GCK 40 NE LVS 45 NNW 4CR 40 SSW 4CR 25 NW GDP 25 NW FST 65 WSW SJT 30 NW JCT 30 NNW SAT 30 SE AUS 35 NNE CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 W ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES... PRIMARY BAND OF WESTERLIES REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...LEAVING VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PARTS OF MI/WI/MN. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UPPER MI AND EASTERN WI...SPREADING ACROSS LOWER MI BY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...A WEAK CAP...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO AND SOUTHERN WY...SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING OVER EASTERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE WINDS IN MORE INTENSE CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE EVENING...WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ...AZ... MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ...WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION... SUGGESTING THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUPPRESSED SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND 15-25 KT EASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LESSEN DIURNAL HEATING TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS RATHER LOW TODAY. ..HART/GUYER.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 16:00:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 11:00:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507311628.j6VGSqsk024497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311620 SWODY1 SPC AC 311619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MTC 15 NNW MKG 30 NNW OSH 10 NE AUW 10 S IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E DTW AZO 10 ENE BRL 10 ENE FLV SLN 20 ESE LAA 30 SSW RTN 45 ESE ABQ 35 SSW 4CR 25 NW GDP 25 NW FST 55 WSW SJT 20 WSW JCT 40 WNW HDO 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT CLL 40 SSW GGG 25 E MEM 55 E BWG 30 SE LEX HLG 25 SW FKL 25 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 25 E SLE 10 WNW EPH 80 WNW FCA ...CONT... 50 NNW GGW 30 NE MLS 40 NNE RAP 20 NNE MHN 35 N BUB 40 WNW YKN 45 NE ATY 10 W INL ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO DOMINATING CIRCULATION MUCH OF CONUS...THE ONLY AREA WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS VICINITY UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 30-35 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS TRANSPORTED A VERY MOIST AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS WI INTO NRN LWR AND UPPER MI. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER FROM WEAKENING OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ALLOWING STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN. THE 25-30KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLULAR STORM ORGANIZATION. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO LOCAL CONVERGENCE...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZES AND SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS. HAVE TAKEN SEVERE THREAT OUT OF MN AS AIR MASS ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION HAS DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY AS SHOWN ON INL 12Z SOUNDING AND TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACARS NETWORK. ...SWRN U.S... WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...LAPSE RATES ARE NOW GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURST SEVERE WINDS MUCH OF SWRN U.S. AN EXCEPTION COULD STILL BE VICINITY LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE SHOULD BE FULL HEATING ALONG WITH CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF MONSOON MOISTURE. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL CONFINE THE FEW STRONG STORMS TO NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NEB/SD. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED SEWD INTO SRN NEB/NERN CO OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO N OF BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO/SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 8-9 C/KM LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 19:15:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 14:15:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507311943.j6VJhqXx015499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311942 SWODY1 SPC AC 311940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE OSC 40 SSW HTL 10 WSW GRB 15 WNW AUW 55 W RHI 25 SSW IWD 25 SW CMX 65 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT CLL 35 SSW GGG DYR 20 SE CMH 25 SSW YNG 20 W FKL 25 W ERI 50 NNE CLE ...CONT... 10 E DTW 10 E AZO 10 E BRL 10 ENE FLV SLN 20 ESE LAA 15 SE TAD 10 ENE SAF 25 ENE ONM 20 SSE ALM 45 SE GDP 20 W FST 40 W SJT 20 WNW JCT 45 WNW HDO 45 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 45 SSE BIH 65 NW BIH 50 N SAC 40 WSW RBL 45 NE ACV 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW RDM 25 N ALW 15 ESE GEG 80 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 45 S GGW 20 W REJ 30 SSW PHP 10 SW VTN 45 ENE ANW 15 SSW MHE 50 NE ATY 10 W INL ...CONT... 15 W MSS BTV 25 SSW MWN 10 E PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...GREAT LAKES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN WITH A BAND OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UP OF MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN MI INTO NRN WI. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVELS FROM NERN WI TO THE EAST APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...NORTHEAST... A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN NY AND NRN PA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN SRN NY SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING JUST ENOUGH SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY NEAR PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DENVER PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 10 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 1000 J/KG...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40+ F. THIS SUGGESTS HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW CELLS NEAR PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ...DESERT SOUTHWEST... SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPS IS CREATING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 01:01:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 20:01:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507010112.j611CuWm029778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010110 SWODY1 SPC AC 010108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ERI 35 NNE PKB 25 WSW HTS 20 SW BNA 30 SW DYR 55 NNW LIT 10 SSE MKO 30 ENE OKC 45 E CSM 25 W CSM 35 NE AMA 25 S DHT 15 W CAO 15 E TAD 20 N TAD 10 ESE COS 25 W LIC 30 ENE LIC 50 E LIC 45 NNE LAA 55 W GCK 25 WSW GCK 25 SSE GCK 15 SSE DDC 50 NNW P28 30 NNW HUT 15 S MHK 25 WNW TOP FLV 45 SSW IRK 40 NE COU 10 NNE STL 10 W MTO 30 NW MIE 25 SW JXN 15 E LAN 20 NNE FNT 65 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE 7R4 10 WSW LFT 30 S HEZ 25 WSW LUL 40 NW CEW 20 W MAI 15 ESE MGR 15 S AYS 25 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CRE 20 SE CAE 15 N MCN 15 SSE TCL 35 N MEI 35 S GLH 25 ENE TXK 10 NE ADM 35 WNW SPS 35 S CDS 50 SSE LBB 35 SW FST 65 S MRF ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 WSW GDP 45 NNW GDP 10 NNW ROW 50 WSW CVS 50 SW TCC 40 NW TCC 25 SSE RTN 10 WNW RTN 25 NW ALS 30 E GUC 30 WNW 4FC 40 SW LAR 40 SSE DGW 25 N BFF 50 WSW MHN 10 E IML 40 SW MCK 20 SSE HLC 20 ENE CNK 25 SW DSM 25 W CID 20 SW LNR 45 WSW OSH 25 NNW GRB 20 E IMT 15 NE MQT ...CONT... 45 NNW BML 25 SSE EEN POU 30 WNW ILG 25 N RIC 55 SSW RIC 30 ENE RWI 10 WNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GGW 50 NE LWT 10 S LWT 40 NNW COD 25 NNE JAC 30 NW IDA 35 N SUN 55 WSW 27U 25 SE S80 20 E LWS 35 WNW PUW 20 S 4OM 55 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...MIDWEST/OH VLY... A BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS SITUATED ALONG PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT...AND IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS...FROM SRN IL NEWD ACROSS SRN IND AND INTO WRN OH AND EXTREME SERN MI. DESPITE A LATE START DUE TO DELAYED AIR MASS RECOVERY AFTER EARLIER MCS...NOW DECAYING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MID/UPR OH RIVER VLY WAS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 30KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW. LINES AND STORM CLUSTERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HAIL AND HIGH WIND EVENTS INTO LATE EVENING. ...KS/MO INTO OK/AR... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL/SRN MO. THIS CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MESOSCALE COLD POOL...AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SITUATED FROM SRN IA...TO THE OK/TX PNHDLS. LARGE SCALE UPR SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE KS/MO AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPR LEVEL WIND MAX AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN MCS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD POOL WILL ALSO LEND SUPPORT FOR INTENSE STORMS WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM DISCRETE CELLS/UPDRAFTS TRACKING ALONG OR ACROSS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN KS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SEE MCD NUMBER 1563 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RUC MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT ERN KS MCS WILL TRACK INTO WRN/SWRN MO AND THE OZARKS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS...NOW ACROSS SCNTRL MO...SHOULD SPREAD GENERALLY EWD TO THE BOOTHEEL AREA...AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER INTO WRN TN/KY LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN KS INTO NRN OK LATER TONIGHT. CAP TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND SWD/SWWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN CO/NM INTO TX/OK PNHDLS... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN CO PROMPTED ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER AND THIS CONVECTION WAS NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE ERN PLAINS. OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER ERN NM AND WAS NOW MOVING EAST INTO THE TX PNHDL AND SOUTH PLAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM THE NRN TX PNHDL NWWD INTO SERN CO APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM BUT LESS SO BY LATEST RUC. WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY...RUC SCENARIO OF LIMITED NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE PROBABLE. HOWEVER...ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS INTENSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..CARBIN.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 05:18:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 00:18:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507010529.j615TlEm003422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010527 SWODY1 SPC AC 010525 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK NEL 40 NW HSE 20 NW EWN 40 W AGS 25 WNW DHN 20 S MOB 20 WSW MSY 50 SSW TYR 25 NNW BWD 65 NE BGS 35 NW TCC 20 NNW TAD 20 NE AKO 55 ENE SNY 60 NNW MHN 40 NE VTN 30 ESE OLU 25 SW BIE 20 ENE SLN 25 NNE P28 10 NW END 35 SW TUL 20 SSW LIT 45 NE UOX 25 ESE BNA 25 WSW JKL 45 WNW EKN 30 NW AOO 25 W SYR 25 NNE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW GLS 35 E AUS 15 SSE SJT 60 NNE P07 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 80 SSW GDP 15 SSW CNM 45 SW 4CR 35 WSW ABQ 40 SE FMN 4BL 35 NNW 4HV 40 SE MLD 55 N BOI 10 NNW LWS 55 ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 N ELO 10 NW STC 50 W DSM 15 ENE MKC 15 ESE TBN 15 ESE MDH 40 S BMG 10 WNW DAY 15 WNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST....LWR MS VLY...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TOWARD A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...TO THE TN/LWR MS VLYS...AND THEN WNWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE...A BELT OF MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE MID/LWR MS VLY...ATOP THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL ZONE. RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NRN MEXICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS S FL. ...NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST... HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN BANDS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT FROM UPSTATE NY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AND SHEAR ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NRN AREAS...FROM NRN PA NWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST. FLOW/SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAKER FROM DELMARVA AREA SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WITHIN LEE-TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WHEN DEEP CONVECTION SPREADS EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN NC THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH LIFT ALONG THIS OUTFLOW GENERATING ADDITIONAL STORMS IN MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ...SRN PLAINS/MS VLY NWWD TO HIGH PLAINS... AN MCS OR TWO MAY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR EARLY TODAY. CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS RESULTING FROM THIS EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RED RIVER VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY. LACK OF STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE OFFSET BY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...FROM NWRN TX TO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS BENEATH MODEST AND DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LVL FLOW. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVELING WITHIN THE WNWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL AID ASCENT ACROSS RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE TSTM INITIATION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ...ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS... LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE LIMITED BUT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK IMPULSE TRANSITIONING THROUGH BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION WITHIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/LEE TROUGH. HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS WITH ISOLATED WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 12:52:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 07:52:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507011304.j61D40gZ028569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011301 SWODY1 SPC AC 011259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK NEL 40 NW HSE 20 NW EWN 40 W AGS 25 WNW DHN 20 S MOB 20 WSW MSY 60 SSW TYR 35 SSW BWD 20 N BGS 35 NW TCC 20 NNW TAD 20 NE AKO 25 NE SNY 30 NNE CDR PHP 10 N BUB 35 E HSI 20 ENE SLN 25 NNE P28 10 NW END 30 SW TUL 35 ENE PBF 40 N TUP 40 WSW HOP 45 SSW SDF 15 NNE TYS 30 E HSS 25 S CRW 45 SSE LBE 25 W SYR 25 NNE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 20 N GDP 40 N ALM 35 WSW ABQ 40 SE FMN 4BL 35 NNW 4HV 40 SE MLD 55 N BOI 10 NNW LWS 55 ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 N ELO 10 NW STC 50 W DSM 15 ENE MKC 15 ESE TBN 15 ESE MDH 40 SSE BMG DAY 15 WNW CLE ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 35 SE AUS 30 WNW JCT 60 NE P07 30 SSE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NY/NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE TN VLY TO THE SRN PLNS AND CNTRL HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM OFF THE SRN CA CST TO TX WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONTINUES FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE NRN PLNS INTO THE GRT LKS/OH VLY AND NEW ENG. UPPER LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO SHOULD MOVE E INTO CNTRL QUEBEC BY EARLY SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM CLOSED SYSTEM WEAKENS SOMEWHAT UPON REACHING SRN BC/WA. FARTHER S...SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAKER DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING WRN WY/UT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WITHDRAW N INTO CANADA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL...HOWEVER... RECEIVE A BOOST EWD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENG LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES E ACROSS MI. IN THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY...MAIN SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL UPLIFT LIKELY WILL BE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM W TN/NW MS INTO AR/SRN MO AND THE TX PANHANDLE REGION. ...SRN PLNS/CNTRL HI PLNS... SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF WRN NEB...WRN KS...OK AND NRN/WRN TX THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY BOTH DIURNAL HEATING...AND BY APPROACH OF WY/UT DISTURBANCE. SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN OK INTO NW TX THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORMIDABLE CAP WILL PROBABLY KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL FIND STORMS FORMING IN UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN CO...AND ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WRN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MERGE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS...WITH A PREDOMINANT MOTION TOWARD THE SE. AMPLE DEEP WNWLY SHEAR /40+ KT/ AND INSTABILITY /ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J PER KG...BOTH SURFACE- BASED AND ELEVATED/ WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN EXPECTED MULTIPLE AREAS OF STORM INITIATION...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND COMPLEX COMBINATION OF BOTH ELEVATED AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE...EXPECT THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR EARLY IN STORM LIFE CYCLES. A SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY..ESPECIALLY IN TX. ...NY/NEW ENG INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION... MODEST INSTABILITY /ML CAPE OF 1000- 1500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF NY/PA COLD FRONT...AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE MD/VA/NC PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLN TODAY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING OFFSHORE DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION/INFLOW FROM NJ INTO SRN NEW ENG. COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG...RANGING FROM AROUND 25 KTS IN MD/VA TO NEAR 40 KTS IN NRN NY...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND...MAINLY IN NY...A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW TO WSWLY FLOW COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THE UPR HUDSON VLY...WHERE NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MORE SLY COMPONENT. FARTHER S...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT GREATER CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ...TN VLY TO S ATLANTIC CST... REMNANT OF OVERNIGHT KS/MO/AR MCS WILL CONTINUE SE INTO PARTS OF TN/MS/AL LATER TODAY...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR. MORNING RAOB/SURFACE DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A POCKET OF ENHANCED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF KY/MIDDLE TN/MS AND AL. THIS MARKS AN APPARENT REGION THAT HAS NOT EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN RECENT DAYS. RESULTANT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WITH WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL...DESPITE WEAKNESS OF DEEP SHEAR. OTHER STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE ERN CAROLINAS...WHERE A BAND OF SOMEWHAT FASTER MID LVL WLY FLOW WILL EXIST. ...NRN HI PLNS... DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KTS OVER ERN/SRN MT AND WRN ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS NRN PART OF WY/UT DISTURBANCE GRAZES REGION. WHILE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION. IF CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENTLY STRENGTHENS...SETUP COULD YIELD SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS AND A THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 16:22:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 11:22:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507011633.j61GXuI2029919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011625 SWODY1 SPC AC 011624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE SJT 40 SSW LBB 35 NNW TCC 15 E COS 45 NW AKO 45 WSW MHN 40 NW BBW 40 NE MCK 40 SSW HLC 20 W END 40 ESE OKC 25 SW DUA 20 SE SEP 40 NNE SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 50 N REJ 30 S 4BQ 45 NNW COD 35 N LVM 50 NNW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 15 E FLO 35 S CLT 40 NW HKY 15 NNW BKW 45 SSE LBE 40 WSW ELM 40 NNE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 35 NW GDP 10 NNW 4CR 40 E DRO 15 W GJT 30 SSW EVW 20 SSW PIH 35 WNW SUN 35 NNW BOI 30 NE BKE 20 SSW LWS 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 45 ESE AUS 55 E JCT 55 SW SJT 20 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 20 WSW EEN 30 NNW EWR 15 NW DOV 15 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15 WNW FSD 30 ENE OLU 40 SW FNB 20 W JLN 25 ESE UNO 25 ESE MDH 40 SE BMG 15 ESE DAY 20 W CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT... ...NORTHEAST U.S./LEE OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NC-VA PIEDMONT... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO CENTRAL KY AT 15Z/ WILL CONTINUE EWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL DEFINED ACROSS ERN NY SSWWD INTO THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LEE TROUGH... WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM IAD AND ALB INDICATE LAPSE RATES REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES EVIDENT AT BUF THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL STILL BOOST SBCAPES AOA 200O J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT SMALL LINES WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING... ESPECIALLY INTO UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS/STABLE ONSHORE FLOW PREVALENT ATTM OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...SLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SWD INTO VA/NC...DESPITE THE WEAKER WLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ATTAIN MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW INFLUX OF 50/LOWER 60F DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND LIKELY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BE VERY SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO BOWING MCS/S OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FROM E-CENTRAL/SERN CO SEWD ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THERE. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. ...ERN MT INTO WRN ND... LEE TROUGH/SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME WELL DEFINED FROM NWRN ND/NERN MT SSWWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM 45-55F/ DESPITE DEEP MIXING AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S. THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES WILL NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE / 750-1200 J/KG /... EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...ERN PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF SRN KS/OK/AR THIS MORNING...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY THE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSEWD AWAY FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...TN VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... REFERENCE SWOMCD 1573. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...AS SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. ADDITIONALLY... MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER EVIDENT ON JAN AND BMX SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MAY LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE IN PLACE AT BNA /850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 7C/KM/...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND AN ISOLATED/BRIEF-LIVED SEVERE THREAT ALONG NRN PORTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...AND FAR NWRN GA. SCATTERED PULSE TYPE STORMS...OR SMALL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...APPEAR PROBABLE WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH AFTERNOON. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 20:04:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 15:04:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507012015.j61KF9v0001466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012010 SWODY1 SPC AC 012009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 50 N REJ 30 S 4BQ 45 NNW COD 35 N LVM 50 NNW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE SJT 50 N HOB 35 NNW TCC 15 E COS 45 NW AKO 45 WSW MHN 40 NW BBW 40 NE MCK 40 WSW RSL 25 WNW PNC 40 ESE OKC 25 SW DUA 20 SE SEP 40 NNE SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 15 E FLO 35 S CLT 40 NW HKY 15 NNW BKW 45 SSE LBE 40 WSW ELM 40 NNE ART ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 20 WSW EEN 30 NNW EWR 15 NW DOV 15 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HUL AUG 25 SW PWM 20 NE BID ...CONT... 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15 WNW FSD 30 ENE OLU 40 SW FNB 20 W JLN 25 ESE UNO 15 NE PAH 40 NNW LEX 25 SE CAK 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 45 ESE AUS 55 E JCT 55 SW SJT 20 S P07 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 35 NW GDP 10 NNW 4CR 40 E DRO 15 W GJT 30 SSW EVW 20 SSW PIH 35 WNW SUN 35 NNW BOI 30 NE BKE 20 SSW LWS 70 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...PA AND VT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MT.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SERN ONTARIO AND NERN OH SWWD ACROSS SERN MO...THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK. A WARM FRONT THEN CONTINUES NWWD INTO E CENTRAL CO. ALSO...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES DRAPE FROM ERN TN INTO CENTRAL MS...NRN LA...NERN AND N CENTAL TX INTO SWRN OK. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN QUEBEC AND STRONG BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU. ...ERN NY AND NERN PA INTO VT... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED PVA WILL ADVANCE COLD FRONT ALONG INTO MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1500 TO 1800 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN UPSTATE NY WHERE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY. 18Z RAOB FROM ALY SHOWS MARGINAL LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POSSIBLY EFFECTED BY NEARBY CONVECTION...WITH VALUES NEAR 7C/KM. THUS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL CAN OCCUR THRU THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... MODELS CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FROM ERN CO INTO PARTS OF OK AND NRN TX. REMAN TS OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND OLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MCS DEVELOPING FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NERN CO AHEAD OF NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD EXTENDING FROM NWRN MO INTO NWRN TX BY 02/12Z. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DRIVEN SUBSIDENCE TO ENHANCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EARLY TONIGHT. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO GIVE A SUBTLE HINT OF THIS WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM BEHIND THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT... INCREASING BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NRN PLATEAU AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS VANCOUVER INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PLACES AREA IN DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF EXIT REGION OF 80-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8C/KM. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS S CENTRAL MT AND WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 00:50:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 19:50:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507020101.j6211XuG032197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020059 SWODY1 SPC AC 020057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE DDC 35 SSE DDC 30 NNE GAG 45 ESE GAG 40 E CSM 10 NNE FSI 35 WSW SPS 60 NNE ABI 45 NE ABI 10 SW SEP 40 W ACT 35 W TPL 50 SE BWD 30 SW BWD 15 NE SJT 30 NE FST 25 W INK 20 WSW HOB 40 SSE CVS TCC 30 NNW CAO LHX 40 E LIC 40 SSW IML 40 SSW MHN 30 NW MHN 10 NW VTN 35 NNE ANW 35 W OFK 30 ESE HSI 45 W CNK 45 ENE DDC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 40 WNW FAR 35 NNE MBG 25 SE REJ 30 SE 4BQ 65 SSE GDV 25 SE SDY 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 50 SSW CLL 60 ENE JCT 35 SSW SJT 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 SE ELP 35 SSW 4CR 45 ESE ABQ 25 ESE SAF 45 NE 4SL 15 SSE DRO 25 NNW DRO 20 S MTJ 30 E GJT 45 SSE VEL 25 WSW VEL 50 NNW VEL 40 ESE RKS 35 ESE RWL 25 NNE LAR 40 SSE DGW 45 NE DGW 30 SSW 81V 40 SSE SHR 25 SSW COD 15 ENE IDA 45 ESE SUN 30 N SUN 30 NW DLN GTF 15 SSW HVR 40 NE HVR ...CONT... 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15 ENE FSD 10 NW OMA 25 NNW TOP 30 SW TOP 30 S EMP 40 NNW BVO 20 S BVO 10 E MKO FSM 45 N LIT 10 NE JBR 25 SSW CGI 40 ENE PAH 35 W JKL 20 SE YNG 15 NE ROC ...CONT... 20 S HUL AUG 25 SW PWM 20 NE BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE HAS PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM INITIATION FROM THE TX PNHDL NWD TO CNTRL NEB. TO THE WEST OF THIS ZONE...SERIES OF CONVECTIVE SURGES/OUTFLOWS HAVE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO/NM...AS WELL AS WEST TX. ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH 35-40KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ABSENT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF LARGE SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN SUSTAINING TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT. CELL MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOWS MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS EVOLVING OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE PERSISTING NEAR THESE COMPLEXES. IN THE MEANTIME....TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...COULD ACCOMPANY DISCRETE CELLS TRACKING NEAR THE FRONT FROM NEB TO THE OK/TX PNHDLS...AS WELL AS NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED SE-NW ACROSS WEST TX. ...NRN PLAINS... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING THROUGH A BROAD UPR RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. WARM AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF ADVANCING LEE TROUGH WAS FUELING NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO ERN ND BEFORE DAYBREAK. ...NCNTRL GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST... EXTENSIVE LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG OUTFLOW/THERMAL TROUGH MERGER FROM ERN NC TO SRN GA/AL THIS EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING LINE WAS VERY UNSTABLE. WHILE DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SUBSIDE. ...NORTHEAST... COLD FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR AND FORCING COULD STILL SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS FROM ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS OVER PARTS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 04:40:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 23:40:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507020451.j624pAWY022992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020449 SWODY1 SPC AC 020448 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 35 SW DLH 15 NNE MKT 20 NE SPW 35 N SUX 30 E ANW 45 SE PHP 35 ENE RAP 15 ENE REJ 15 WNW DIK 40 WNW P24 40 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 15 N VCT 40 WNW NIR 30 N COT 50 WNW HDO 35 NNE DRT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 10 SE GDP 25 NE 4CR 45 SE ALS 40 N ALS 50 NW GJT 35 NE DPG 60 S BYI 40 NW SUN 40 WSW MSO 75 NE 63S ...CONT... 15 NE MQT 35 ESE CWA DBQ 25 SW IRK 35 NE JLN 25 WSW HRO 55 ENE LIT 40 SE BNA 25 SE JKL 25 E MGW 15 SE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NERN U.S...A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ENCOMPASS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NRN PLAINS...WILL CONTAIN AT LEAST ONE STRONGER LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WHICH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY AND WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM MT TO THE UPR MS VLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...SOUTH...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE DEPARTING THE NORTHEAST. WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND LEE TROUGHING...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO WITH GENERALLY WEAK WLY FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM CA...TO THE FOUR CORNERS...TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG WLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AXIS OF VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FIRST IN RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCNTRL MT. EVENTUALLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL ACT TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER WCNTRL DAKOTAS. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF ABOUT 20KT WILL BE TOPPED BY INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT TO PROVIDE STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN MN. THIS BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKED SFC FLOW NEAR LEE LOW/TROUGH...MAY ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TORNADIC STORMS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING ALSO SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD/ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CELL MERGERS...AND INCREASE IN MASS TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...MAY SUSTAIN AN MCS WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND CONTINUING EAST INTO WRN MN AND NWRN IA AFTER 03/00Z. ...SOUTHEAST... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FUEL INCREASING MULTICELL AND PULSE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS OF 20KT OR LESS WITHIN SLACK MID LEVEL TROUGH...OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...RANDOM BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS OCCURRING WITHIN INCREASINGLY HOT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. IF A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOMES EVIDENT IN LATER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AND A SLIGHT RISK...MIGHT BE INTRODUCED OVER A PORTION OF THE REGION. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY DRIFTING SSEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN TX/WRN OK WHERE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXIST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CAP IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A DEEP CONVECTIVE COLD POOL TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SCNTRL TX DURING THE DAY AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST NAM. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE THE AREA IN A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. FARTHER NORTH...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS CAP IS LOCALLY OVERCOME BY INTENSE HEATING FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. NW FLOW REGIME AND MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CAP. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 12:44:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 07:44:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507021255.j62CtIBJ014622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021253 SWODY1 SPC AC 021252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 35 SW DLH 15 NNE MKT 20 NE SPW 35 N SUX 30 E ANW 20 SSE VTN 20 ENE RAP 20 NW 4BQ 15 SSE GDV 40 WNW P24 40 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT 35 ESE CWA 30 E ALO 20 ESE P35 10 WSW JLN 30 NW FSM 15 NNE HOT 25 ESE JBR 15 ESE LOZ 30 NNW EKN 20 SE DOV ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 25 SSE DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 10 SE GDP 45 SE ALS 40 SSE GUC 30 W GJT 35 NE DPG 60 S BYI 40 NW SUN 40 WSW MSO 75 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL STATES THIS PERIOD...N OF ELONGATED RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST FROM OFF THE BAJA CST TO THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY. ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE ZONAL JET...NOW ENTERING NRN ID...MAY AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES E INTO WRN ND BY 12Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LWR 48...UPR LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN WEAK SHEAR AND/OR ARE NOT NOTEWORTHY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE IS DIFFUSE ATTM...BUT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD REACH A NW MN/ERN SD/NW NEB LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. TRUE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CANADA...ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT OF SORTS LIKELY WILL BECOME APPARENT OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY ENHANCES THERMAL GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS ID IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. WEAKLY DIFFLUENT... 40-50 KT W TO WNWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY FIRST DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE WRN DAKOTAS AND PERHAPS SRN MT. RELATIVELY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP STORMS HIGH-BASED AND PROMOTE CONSOLIDATION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE. POTENTIAL WILL...HOWEVER...ALSO EXIST FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS...INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND/OR NEAR WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS. LOCALLY ENHANCED SRH IN THESE AREAS COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LLJ WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ID IMPULSE AMPLIFIES/CONTINUES EWD. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE MCSS. THESE SYSTEMS COULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND INTO MUCH OF MN AND PERHAPS NW IA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. ...SERN U.S... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PERSIST INVOF LEE TROUGH AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH AFFECTED THE NERN U.S. ON FRIDAY. WEAKLY CAPPED/STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MULTICELL AND/OR PULSE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK...BUT BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD A FEW WET MICROBURSTS. CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER MS/AL...AND POSSIBLY INTERIOR PARTS OF SC. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ONGOING MCSS SHOULD CONTINUE SSE ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN/CNTRL TX... WHERE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW CELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. CINH ASSOCIATED WITH ERN EXTENTION OF UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN FORMIDABLE...AND SHEAR/CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THEY WERE FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...25+ KT NNW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SSE MOTION OF EXISTING COMPOSITE COLD POOL NOW COVERING MUCH OF NRN AND WRN TX. STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL COULD BRIEFLY POSE A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. FARTHER NW...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED INVOF LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO ERN CO FROM THE MOUNTAINS. MODEST /20-25 KT/ WNW MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LARGE CINH...RISK APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 16:30:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 11:30:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507021641.j62Gffar013063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021625 SWODY1 SPC AC 021623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW 25 SE SPW 35 W YKN 15 SW MCK 40 E AKO 15 WSW RAP 40 NE SHR 65 WSW MLS 15 E SDY 65 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 35 W HOU 10 SSW CLL 50 E ACT 15 SSE TYR 25 SSW SHV 25 NW HEZ 10 WNW MCB 10 WNW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 10 W SAF 50 E DRO 30 WSW PUC 30 S SLC 35 S MLD 10 NNW PIH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 30 NW CID 35 N JLN 30 NE MKO 25 W HOT 40 NE PBF 20 SSW MKL 45 ESE BWG 15 ESE LEX 30 NNW HTS 15 S PKB 10 N EKN 45 NNE CHO 30 ESE DOV ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 50 ENE COT 65 W COT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS AND PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX AND LA... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS... AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AND INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN CAP CONSIDERABLY LATER TODAY. MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR INITIATION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z SHOULD BE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/SERN MT NEARER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING SFC LOW...AND NEAR WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL ND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN NEB. LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY / MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG / OVER CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS TODAY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE IMPRESSIVE UNDER 40-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR NEAR WRN EXTENT OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY IN THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE COMMON WITH STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OR CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S THIS EVENING AS UPPER SYSTEM NEARS AND STRONG SSWLY LLJ DEVELOPS...WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER E-CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...ALONG WELL DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD TOWARDS SERN LA/SRN MS. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...WNWLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR 20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THIS MAY SUSTAIN SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO A MCS AND TRACKS SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. WRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH MORE SWD INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER SERN TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THOUGH WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WW/S MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY ORGANIZES ALONG A COMMON COLD POOL. ...PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT STRONG HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ANY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN SMALL WITH DELTA-THETAE VALUES AOB 25C THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF 20 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A NEAR-SLGT CATEGORICAL RISK. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 19:54:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 14:54:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507022005.j62K59YS001024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022002 SWODY1 SPC AC 022000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW YKN BUB MCK 40 E AKO 60 SW RAP 40 NE SHR 65 WSW MLS SDY 60 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 N HOU 45 S LFK 40 WNW POE 45 N POE 30 ENE SHV MLU 20 ENE LUL 15 E BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 45 E ABQ 45 N ALS 50 SE EVW 25 NE MLD 35 ENE S80 40 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 SE CMX 30 S LSE LNK GAG CDS 70 NNW ABI 30 W SEP TPL 55 SW LFK 15 ENE LFK 35 S TXK GWO MSL 45 SW LOZ 15 NE 5I3 10 E SHD 20 NE WAL ...CONT... 30 E PSX 30 N VCT 20 ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS... AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN ND...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA REMAINS CAPPED. FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...AS NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND ERN MT. THESE BOUNDARIES AND THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN MT/WY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOCI FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM WRN NEB NEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO THE WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND TROPOSPHERIC WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH STORMS. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH BASES SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS STORMS SPREAD EWD AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN TONIGHT...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S...WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. EVOLVING COLD POOL AND MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO PROPEL AN MCS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS MN LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NWRN WI BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ...SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH LA AT MID AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY UNTIL MID EVENING. STRONGER INSTABILITY...LOCATED BETWEEN HOU AND LCH...MAY AID STORMS ON THE SRN END OF LINE TO PROPAGATE SEWD. DESPITE THE WEAKER COLD POOL PUSH INTO THIS AREA...WET MICROBURSTS AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD INTO FAR SERN TX AND SWRN LA. ...ERN AL NEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS... AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ONCE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNINGS 12Z...AND AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP MOIST PROFILES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR IS WEAK...SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED. HOWEVER...PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WATER LOADING FOR BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. ..IMY.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 00:47:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 19:47:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507030058.j630weSp013049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030057 SWODY1 SPC AC 030055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW YKN VTN 35 ENE CDR 60 SW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 45 NNE 4BQ 15 ESE SDY 65 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 30 N VCT 20 ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 40 SE ROW 20 E CVS 15 SW CAO TAD 55 ESE GUC 25 NNE GJT 25 SSW PUC 55 ESE ELY 50 SW ELY 40 SW ENV 25 WSW OGD 10 NE RKS 30 NE RWL 20 NNE CPR WRL 25 S WEY 35 WSW MSO 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 SE CMX 30 S LSE LNK 20 SE P28 15 E CSM SPS 20 WNW FTW 45 WSW TYR 15 SW LFK 35 E LCH 20 NW HEZ 30 ESE JAN 30 WNW BHM 10 N TYS 30 NE TRI 10 E DAN 35 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED BAND OF 50-60 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TWD WRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN ND INTO NWRN WY WILL MOVE EWD REACHING AN ERN ND/CENTRAL SD/SERN WY LINE BY 03/12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN DAKOTAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT RAP/ABR/BIS EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM RESULTING IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER WRN DAKOTAS TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NRN BORDERS OF ND AND NWRN MN...WITH OTHER STRONG CELLS OVER CENTRAL SD...SWRN ND...AND EXTREME SERN MT/NERN WY/NWRN SD. OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT INITIALLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS MOVING AND MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING EXTREME WRN LAKE SUPR AND NWRN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... LEADING LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN LA AND SRN MS. CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS...AND 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE LA/MS REGION SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BECOMING TOO WEAK TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED MCS INTO THE NIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE 1-2 HOURS WITH A RESULTANT DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER WRN KS HAVE BEEN MOVING SEWD WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ABOVE A VEERING WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM THREAT NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STORM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 03Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ..WEISS.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 05:56:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 00:56:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507030607.j6367Stf025321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030605 SWODY1 SPC AC 030603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CWA 20 W DBQ 15 N MKC 20 SE MHK 40 NNE RSL 40 ESE SUX 20 W MSP 45 N EAU 30 SW CWA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MQT 15 W MKE 35 NNW STL 10 ENE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 WNW EHA 15 E GRI 30 SW OTG 50 E FAR 40 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BUF 30 E BFD 20 NW CXY 35 NE CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 SSE RIC 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35 ENE PLN 40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW UNO 20 S ADM 35 NNE BWD 30 NNW JCT DRT ...CONT... 75 SW P07 30 WNW FST 25 SSW HOB 35 ESE TCC 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 20 WSW 4HV 45 SSE EVW 20 SE DGW 20 SSE CDR VTN 35 ENE PIR 10 NE MBG 25 WNW GDV 85 NW GGW ...CONT... 25 SSE CRP 50 E SAT 25 NNW CLL 20 SSW GGG 10 N MKL 40 S MIE 40 ESE DTW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MN...WRN WI...IA...SERN NEB...NERN KS...AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...REACHING NRN MN AND NWRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH...MCV NEAR THE ARKLATEX MAY PERSIST AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD REACHING A MN/ERN NEB/SWRN KS LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/ERN IA/NW MO/OK PANHANDLE BY 04/12Z. A NORTH/SOUTH DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO WRN TX. OVER THE SOUTHEAST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL PLAINS... ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT COLD POOL MAY GENERATE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA THAT COULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL SPREAD EWD NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG FROM SRN MN SSWWD ACROSS IA/WRN MO/KS AND PARTS OF WRN TX. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MN...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS AS STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES LARGE SCALE ASCENT NEAR THE COLD FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS MN WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY ACROSS MN/WI AND IA REGION WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. FARTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF KS AND NRN MO THE SHEAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WEAKER /30-35 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS'S DURING THE EVENING MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE THROUGH 06-08Z. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... NAM AND NAMKF INDICATE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MODEST /25-30 KT/...STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. PRESENCE OF LARGE DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL WELL MIXED LAYER INDICATE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES... CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. WEAK EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE FROM LA INTO SC AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING DAY. AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH 10-20 KT WINDS AT 500 MB RESULTING IN LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 12:52:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 07:52:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507031303.j63D3WpY028754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031301 SWODY1 SPC AC 031259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N OTM 30 E STJ 20 WSW CNU END 35 ENE LBL 30 NNE GCK 25 NW LNK 30 SSW SPW 15 ENE MCW 25 N OTM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ANJ 30 NNE PIA 35 NNW COU 25 S JLN 25 SE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 15 NNW MCK 10 NE GRI 20 SW OTG 25 WNW STC 50 SW BJI 40 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 35 WSW FST 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 60 W 4HV 40 ESE SLC 20 SE DGW 30 SW VTN 25 W FSD 25 WNW AXN 35 S DVL SDY 85 NW GGW ...CONT... 35 ENE PLN 40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW UNO 10 ENE DUA 35 NNE BWD 30 NNW JCT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 60 S CLL 50 W LFK 20 SSW GGG 40 N TUP 40 S MIE 40 ESE DTW ...CONT... 15 NE ERI 30 E FKL 20 S AOO 35 NE CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 SSE RIC 15 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB...IA...KS AND NRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS NEWD TO THE UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE LOW AMPLITUDE WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE N CNTRL STATES THIS PERIOD AS ELONGATED RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES AND FL. FAIRLY POTENT NRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER SE SK/ND WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS PROGRESSES E/SE TO THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY AND THE SRN PLNS. FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS SHOW A POSITIVE TILT IMPULSE ATTM OVER SRN WY/ERN UT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE CNTRL PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... A BROAD AREA OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CNTRL NEB SWD AND EWD INTO KS/OK AND IA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING OF LLJ IN THE PAST 12-18 HRS...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING UPR SYSTEM IN ND...HAS ALLOWED FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED AREAS OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LOCALLY DIMINISH SOME OF THE STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...BY AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO MORE THAN 3500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF KS/NEB AND WRN IA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER ERN CO AS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ADVECTS POST FRONTAL MOISTURE INTO REGION. TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO BY MIDDAY AND SPREAD E INTO THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF WY/UT IMPULSE DESTABILIZE REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY EVOLVE FROM MORNING WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MOS VLY. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND UPLIFT WILL CREATE POTENT SETUP SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND...DURING EARLY STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE CLUSTERS WHICH...GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...MAY CONTAIN ONE OR MORE SUSTAINED BOWS WITH HIGH WIND. THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E/SE...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. FARTHER N...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY. WHILE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SK/ND DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED GIVEN ONGOING WEAKENING MCS AND ABSENCE OF RICH MOISTURE INFLOW. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...HOWEVER...TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH WIND AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...LWR MS VLY/SERN STATES... STLT LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER E TX/LA...INVOF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX WHICH MOVED INTO REGION LATE YESTERDAY. DIFFUSE EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PERSIST FROM LA INTO SC AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD. AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE...WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT /15-20 KTS AT 500 MB/ LIMIT DEEP SHEAR SHEAR. BUT SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 16:23:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 11:23:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507031634.j63GYRP2018048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031632 SWODY1 SPC AC 031630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CSM 50 E AMA 50 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 35 SW GLD 45 ESE GLD RSL HUT 40 N END 45 NNE CSM 30 W CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CMX 30 NW RFD 35 NNW COU 25 S JLN 25 SE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 15 NNW MCK 30 ENE OLU 15 NNW FRM 30 NE BRD 30 WNW BJI 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 60 W 4HV 40 ESE SLC 20 SE DGW 30 SW VTN 10 E MHE 20 NW RWF 30 NW STC 45 NW BRD 45 NW JMS 20 SSE SDY 50 NNW GGW ...CONT... 30 E PLN 40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW UNO 30 SSW MLC 35 NNE BWD 30 NNW JCT 10 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 45 SSW SDF DAY 35 NNW CMH 15 SSW CAK 10 SE PIT 15 E MRB 20 SSE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE RDU 45 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED POORLY BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO THIS POINT...REMAINS EXTENSIVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL COMPLICATE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO MN AND THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING SSEWD INTO SRN NEB AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS LARGE AREA OF 50-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WEAKER DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND 35-40 KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNMODIFIED...AND HAVE SHIFTED GREATEST SEVERE RISK/PROBABILITIES INTO THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TX-OK PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK/WRN KS... AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST THIS MORNING WITH MIXING RATIOS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FROM NWRN OK INTO FAR ERN CO/WRN KS /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S INTO NWRN OK AND LOWER 60S ACROSS WRN KS/. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...SOUTH OF ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER NWRN KS. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE IF STORMS HOLD-ON INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS...WHILE DRY LINE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED SSWWD FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME WEAKENING CAP NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NEAR SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE AND SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT PLAINS LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 45+ KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE NWD. THUS...SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUD BASES AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT TRANSITION INTO BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND SPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WINDS...ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK. FARTHER S ALONG DRY LINE OVER WRN TX...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. THOUGH...SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER DARK GIVEN LACK OF FOCUS WITH RETREATING DRY LINE. ...NERN KS/ERN NEB/IA/MN ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION EFFECTS...FEEL MDT RISK NO LONGER WARRANTED INTO IA/ERN NEB/NERN KS. HOWEVER WITH COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST AND DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL KEEP BROAD SLGT RISK AREA ACROSS THE REGION. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN WI THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PERSISTENT MOIST CONVECTION AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS ERN NEB/NERN KS AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS COMPLICATES HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT. ATTM...EXPECT AT LEAST POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MN AND PORTIONS OF IA/ERN NEB. GIVEN AMOUNT OF SHEAR...CLUSTERS/AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS... AT 1530Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WHICH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MS AND TO THE GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF DECAYING MCS OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THE 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST COLD POOL ACROSS MS/AL WITH TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -9C. THIS THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD WITH BAND OF 15-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNWIND OF REMNANT MCS CIRCULATION AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS /LOW TO MID 70S/ ACROSS CENTRAL AL ENEWD INTO NWRN GA...VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS ZONE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORNING BHM SOUNDING INDICATED MODEST DRY LAYERS ABOVE 700MB WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG STORM-SCALE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STEM FROM WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER CORES AND RESULTING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY AID CELL LONGEVITY AND WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 19:49:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 14:49:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507031959.j63Jxwxr003265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031956 SWODY1 SPC AC 031954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE GLD 40 S HLC 30 E RSL 20 S MHK 15 SSW EMP 25 W BVO 40 NE OKC 35 WSW OKC 30 NE CDS 50 E AMA 50 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 35 WSW GLD 35 ESE GLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CMX JVL 30 WSW UIN 15 SSE UMN 30 NE ADM 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 35 NNW HLC 15 SSE OFK 30 NNE OTG 35 NNW BRD 30 WNW BJI 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 45 SSE U24 SLC 20 SE DGW 20 N MHN 45 SSW MHE 40 NE BKX 30 WSW AXN 20 S FAR 45 NW JMS 20 SSE SDY 50 NNW GGW ...CONT... 40 NE APN 40 SSW HTL 40 SSW SBN 25 WSW MTO UNO 45 SSE MLC 25 ENE BWD 15 NE JCT 10 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 45 SSW SDF DAY 35 NNW CMH 15 SSW CAK 10 SE PIT 15 E MRB 20 SSE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE RDU 45 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN/ECNTRL CO...MUCH OF SRN KS...NWRN HALF OF OK...THE CNTRL/ERN OK PNHDL AND EXTREME NERN TX PNHDL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLD SUPERCELL ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS AFTN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM ERN CO INTO CNTRL/SRN KS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SATL SHOWS BANDS OF HIGH BASED CU OVER CNTRL CO AHEAD OF A POTENT H5 IMPULSE. THESE SHOULD ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG/ ACROSS ERN CO BETWEEN 20-22Z AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. 0-6KM SHEAR OF GREATER THAN 40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE 8.5-9 DEGREE C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT GIANT HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ISOLD TORNADOES. AS THE H5 WAVE MOVES EWD AND TSTM COLD POOLS CONGLOMERATE/ STRENGTHEN...A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PROBABLY VCNTY THE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER WCNTRL/SWRN KS. THE MCS SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE ESEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN KS...NWRN OK AND PERHAPS THE NERN TX PNHDL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY REACH ERN KS AND CNTRL OK BY 12Z WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 65 KTS WITHIN THE MDT RISK AREA ACROSS SRN KS...NCNTRL/NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PNHDL. FARTHER TO THE S...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE FROM NWRN TO SWRN TX LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. STRONGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST ACROSS SWRN TX...BUT GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...ANY TSTMS THAT FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ...CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VLY... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT AS CLEAR AS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING MCS WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG/AHEAD THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN IA INTO ERN MN. CIRRUS OUTFLOW DEBRIS FROM KS TSTMS SEEMS TO BE THINNING ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUED HEATING COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CIRCULATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INITIATION LATER THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL IA NWD INTO ERN MN. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO THE OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE MAY OCCUR AS UPSTREAM LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD FROM THE DAKS. PRESENCE OF 50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS ACROSS IA THIS EVENING/NIGHT AND CONTINUE PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ...SERN STATES... TSTMS SEEM TO BE CONCENTRATING IN TWO BROAD AREAS THIS AFTN. ONE WAS ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS SC AND NRN GA AND ALONG/W OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO SRN WV. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED MULTICELLULAR...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF STORMS THAT EXHIBITED BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE SC NWD TO SRN WV AMIDST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY FOCUSED ON ANY GIVEN AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH NUMEROUS STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS. BRIEF PULSE-TYPE OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. THESE THREATS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING. ..RACY.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 00:45:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 19:45:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507040056.j640uJtK012598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040053 SWODY1 SPC AC 040052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLD 45 SSW HLC 30 WSW SLN 20 S MHK 15 S TOP 25 SSW CNU 30 WNW TUL 25 NW OKC 20 N CSM 55 WSW GAG 45 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 45 WNW GLD 25 ENE GLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CWA JVL 30 WSW UIN 15 SSE UMN 30 NE ADM 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 35 NNW HLC 20 NNW LNK 20 WNW SPW 40 S STC 45 NNE MSP 45 NW AUW 30 ESE CWA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE APN 40 SSW HTL 40 SSW SBN 25 WSW MTO UNO 45 SSE MLC 25 ENE BWD 15 NE JCT 10 SE DRT ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 30 SW CNY 35 N VEL 20 SE DGW 20 N MHN 45 SSW MHE 40 NE BKX 30 WSW AXN 20 S FAR 45 NW JMS 30 WSW P24 70 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 35 ESE OWB 30 W LUK 10 ESE CMH 30 N PKB 25 SE MGW 25 NE SHD 15 ENE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE RDU 45 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN AND N CENTRAL OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN PLAINS THEN SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER S CENTRAL CANADA. THIS ALSO HAS RESULTED IN WLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN CO INTO NERN NM. IT IS THIS EMBEDDED WAVE THAT HAS RESULTED IN VERY STRONG ASCENT ACROSS ERN CO INTO KS. 03/23Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS SFC LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT THAT REACHES EWD/SEWD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER INTO CENTRAL AR. STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO AND ACROSS S CENTRAL KS HAS LEFT A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS INTO S CENTRAL KS. ALSO...CONVECTION OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB INTO SERN CO HAS CREATED ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM GLD SWD AND SWWD THRU SERN CO. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BASICALLY MERGE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENHANCING UVVS FOR A MCS THAT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN KS AND NRN/CENTRAL OK... LATEST RAOB DATA SHOWS DEEP MIXED LAYER OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WITH A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 500 MB. KNOWING THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO/WRN KS AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK ALONG BOUNDARY THAT IS ACROSS SWRN KS...MCS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 25-35 KT IS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL KS AND IS COUPLED WITH WLY 30-35 KT MID LEVEL FLOW POISING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE VERY HIGH INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-4000 J/KG FROM SERN OK INTO S CENTRAL AND SWRN KS /LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -12/. CONSIDERING THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY...MAIN THREATS WILL BE VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE OVERNIGHT MCS. SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR IN AREA OF FAVORABLE 0-3KM HELICITY DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF KS AND EXTREME NRN OK. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 05:37:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 00:37:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507040548.j645m1xi015859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040545 SWODY1 SPC AC 040544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TOL 40 NNW LUK 35 NNE HOP 30 WNW UOX 35 E ELD SHV 50 SSE DAL 30 NW BWD 35 ENE BGS 25 ENE HOB 35 NNE ROW 45 S LVS 55 WSW COS 10 SSE 4FC 20 SSW CYS 15 NNW SNY 35 NW IML 25 ESE GLD 15 S GCK 40 NNE GAG 25 W PNC 25 ESE CNU 15 E SZL 30 SE IRK 25 E MLI 15 WNW MKE 25 WSW TVC 10 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK BGM IPT 15 SSW SHD 20 SSE LYH 50 NNE RDU 60 NE RWI 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 25 S CLL 30 NNE AUS 25 NNE JCT 70 SW SJT 25 SSE P07 ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 35 NW GDP 10 S ALM ONM 20 ESE 4SL 15 SE CEZ 40 WNW PGA 40 W CDC 60 ESE TPH 20 ESE BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 20 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 30 ENE MQM 30 NNE BZN 65 ENE BIL 55 NNE RAP 15 SSW 9V9 25 S SUX 30 SE MCW 20 W RST 25 NW MKT 20 N HON 35 S DIK 30 N GDV 65 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CO.... ...SYNOPSIS... OVERNIGHT MCC COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DY1 OUTLOOK. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD INTO NERN NM. ELSEWHERE...MODELS SHOW POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY. MCV ASSOCIATED WITH MCC IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND MOVE ENEWD INTO NERN INDIANA/SERN MI BY 05/12Z. AT THE SURFACE... MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL UPR MI SWD/SWWD THRU NERN MO AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THE MCC IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE SEVERAL OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM ERN MO SWWD ACROSS NRN AR INTO CENTRAL/SRN OK INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ...LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SERN MO BY 05/00Z. AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK /20-25 KT/ UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET...ENOUGH TO HAVE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI SWWD INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MCV ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CENTRAL PLAINS MCC IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NERN MO/W CENTRAL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID TO ENHANCE UVVS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SOME SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE REMAINING BOUNDARIES. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN AR WWD THRU SRN OK/NRN TX INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BOUNDARIES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER SWRN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES DEVELOP WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING IT SEWD INTO NWRN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER NWRN TX DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LIE BY AFTERNOON. NAM/ETA MODEL GENERATES STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5C/KM WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MU CAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER E CENTRAL/SERN CO...AND ALONG THE OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A SECOND MCS/MCC ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVING THE IDEA OF LOWER PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE UNKNOWN NATURE AND LOCATION OF THE OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. LATER UPPER AIR DATA/UPDATED MODELS COULD GIVE A BETTER INDICATION WHETHER IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE RISK LATER IN THE DAY. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 12:46:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 07:46:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507041257.j64CvN2P016502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041255 SWODY1 SPC AC 041253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE INK 40 SSE CVS 40 SE LVS 60 N ALS 10 S 4FC 30 NNE LAR 50 ESE DGW 30 SE AIA 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 45 E GAG 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 30 NNW JCT 55 E P07 25 SE INK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 45 W LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 45 N GLH 55 N LIT 25 WNW TBN 10 NNW UIN 15 SE MKE 20 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 35 NW GDP 10 S ALM ONM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 10 WSW PGA 25 E P38 60 N DRA 20 ESE BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 35 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 40 ESE HLN 35 ESE LWT 25 SW REJ 15 SSW 9V9 25 S SUX 15 SSE MCW 20 W RST 25 NW MKT 20 N HON 35 S DIK 30 N GDV 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 50 NE DRT 10 WNW DRT ...CONT... EFK BGM IPT 35 SSW MRB CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO PARTS OF KS/OK AND TX... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES AND OFF THE FL CST. THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED FROM TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. STLT/VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT LEAD IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM...RESPONSIBLE IN PART FOR OVERNIGHT KS/OK MCS...IS NOW OVER NE KS/NW MO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO NRN IND/LWR MI BY 12Z TUESDAY AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX...NOW OVER SW WY/NE UT...CONTINUES ESE INTO SE KS/NE OK. ...LWR MI SW INTO THE MID MS VLY... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WRN ONTARIO ATTM EXTENDS FROM ERN LK SUPERIOR TO NW MO. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE MS VLY LATER TODAY AND MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN LWR MI. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NRN IL SEWD INTO SRN/ERN MO...ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY/ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. AIR MASS OVER ERN MO/IL REGION WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ...WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /AROUND 20-25 KT/ AND VEERED TO SSWLY. BUT 35-40 KT WSW FLOW AT MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH NW MO IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN ERN MO AND IL. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY ANY LEFTOVER CIRCULATIONS/BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN IA/WI/NRN IL. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION... LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS LATER TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MTNS AND CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF WY/UT IMPULSE. ASSOCIATED INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER PLAINS...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL WY...CNTRL CO AND NRN NM. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG HEATING AND 30-35 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS THE STORMS MOVE E/SE INTO THE PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLUX AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS BY EVENING. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE E INTO WRN KS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SSE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. THESE CLUSTERS MAY POSE A RISK FOR WIND/HAIL INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ...SW TX TO RED RVR VLY REGION... COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD INTO NW TX FROM KS/OK MCS...IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN W TX...MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER REGION. COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP NWD INTO WRN/SRN OK THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ENHANCES WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE STORM-GENERATED OUTFLOW. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 16:28:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 11:28:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507041639.j64GdkB5018032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041632 SWODY1 SPC AC 041630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 25 NNW LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 55 WSW MEM 55 N LIT 25 WNW TBN 10 NNW UIN 25 NNW CGX 15 SSE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE LVS 30 W PUB 30 NNE LAR 25 ENE DGW 25 SSW CDR 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 45 E GAG 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 35 N JCT 25 NE INK 40 SE LVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 30 NE ALM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 30 SSE BCE 25 E P38 60 N DRA 20 ESE BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 35 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 25 NNE BZN 40 N BIL 35 SSW REJ 40 ESE PHP 25 WSW OFK 10 WNW OMA 55 E OMA 45 NE DSM 40 SW LSE 30 S EAU 40 ENE RWF 35 NNW ATY 25 SSE JMS 50 NE JMS 25 WNW INL ...CONT... EFK 30 ENE IPT 15 SE HGR 45 NE CHO 25 W RIC 20 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 10 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID SOUTH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RESPECTABLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING SSEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 50S FROM SERN WY INTO ERN CO. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH FLAT WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASED ASCENT AS THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN WY INTO CENTRAL CO/NRN NM BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TODAY AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE INTO ONE MORE MCS/S AND PROPAGATE/MOVE SEWD AFTER DARK WITH TRANSITION INTO A WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT DURING THE EVENING. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD INTO THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SWLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PROFILES INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS FROM THE MID SOUTH NEWD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON. REFERENCE SWOMCD 1637 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ABOUT NEAR-TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EWD INTO IND/SRN LOWER MI AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI ATTM...AS THEY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT NWD INTO NRN LOWER MI TODAY...WITH PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING S-SE OF CURRENT BAND OF CLOUDS. ...WRN TX INTO NRN TX AND SRN AR/NRN LA... AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED FROM CENTRAL TX EWD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. ATTM...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND BRIEF-LIVED OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WEAK LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHEAR APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FARTHER WEST ALONG SLOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO WRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAF/S SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG THIS PORTION OF OUTFLOW. SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY NWD INTO THE WEST TX PLAINS...AND SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 19:49:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 14:49:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507042000.j64K0rUE000348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041958 SWODY1 SPC AC 041957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 25 NNW LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 55 WSW MEM 55 N LIT 30 WSW UNO 15 N STL 40 SSE MKE 15 SSE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LVS 20 NNW FCL 20 E DGW 30 SW CDR 60 SE AIA 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 50 WSW END 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 35 N JCT 25 NE INK 45 SSE LVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 30 NE ALM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 30 SSE BCE 35 ESE MLF 25 E DPG 25 E MLD 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 25 NNE BZN 40 N BIL 35 SSW REJ 40 ESE PHP 25 WSW OFK 10 WNW OMA 55 E OMA 45 NE DSM 40 SW LSE 30 S EAU 40 ENE RWF 35 NNW ATY 25 SSE JMS 50 NE JMS 25 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 N BML 30 ENE IPT 15 SE HGR 45 NE CHO 25 W RIC 20 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 10 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF WRN OK / NWRN TX... ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP -- MAINLY INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- ACROSS SERN WY / ERN CO / NERN NM ATTM...WITHIN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW / FAIRLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...AND THEN SPREAD SEWD OVERNIGHT AS MODEST SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BENEATH MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SELYS INCREASING AT LOW LEVELS AND PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD SUPPORT STRONGER STORM ROTATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...WHEN SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND/OR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM LOWER MI SSWWD INTO SERN MO / NERN AR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM SERN MO TO SRN LOWER MI...AND THUS EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH TIME...ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE...LOCALLY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / MID SOUTH REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...N TX... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS N TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LYING FROM ROUGHLY E CENTRAL NM SEWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN EWD TOWARD THE SEP / ACT AREA. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS TX...THOUGH CAP S OF OUTFLOW SHOULD HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. N OF BOUNDARY...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE TRANSPECOS / HILL COUNTRY REGIONS. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES...AND THUS SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- MAY INCREASE AS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPS. ..GOSS.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 05:31:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 00:31:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507050542.j655gqoZ022606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050540 SWODY1 SPC AC 050538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE COS 35 ENE FCL 15 WSW BFF CDR 55 WNW VTN 25 S VTN 10 WNW BBW 25 NE HLC 40 W RSL 30 SSE DDC 45 SSW GAG 30 SSW CDS 45 NE BGS 20 ENE BGS 15 WSW MAF 10 ENE INK 35 WSW HOB 30 SE ROW 45 ENE LVS 20 NW TAD 15 NE COS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HUL 25 WSW BGR 20 ESE LCI 15 ENE PSF 45 SSW ALB 20 ESE ELM 20 NNE BFD 15 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 25 E ALM 40 SE ABQ 25 NNE 4SL 30 NW 4BL 50 SW DPG 65 NNE ENV 60 WNW RIW 30 ESE BIL 45 S GGW 75 NNE OLF ...CONT... 70 N GFK 15 WSW FAR 20 S BKX SUX 40 N FNB 15 NNW OJC 25 NW JLN 10 W FYV 40 NNW HOT 25 NNW UOX 55 NNE MSL 50 NW CSV 45 NNE SDF 30 NW MIE 40 WNW FWA 20 NE GRR 15 E APN ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 45 W HOU 40 S AUS 20 W HDO 45 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN ACROSS NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM QUEBEC SWWD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...SWRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND/WRN WA. THIS WILL KEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED TROUGH DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER SERN WY/ERN CO THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL MCS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES NEWD INTO ME... BOTH THE NAM/ETA AND GFS DRAG A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE GFS LEADS A SLIGHTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NEWD OVER SRN QUEBEC...BUT BOTH MODELS CONCUR THAT MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE INTO ME WILL BE IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE ADVANCED EWD EARLY ON TO ALLOW SOME HEATING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS OVER NY INTO VT SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NAM/ETA INDICATE MUCAPE WILL BE 2000-2500 J/KG IF SFC TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID 80S THRU CENTRAL NY STATE. ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM WITH DRY MID LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODELS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING SLY 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH WEST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN ENHANCED BY SELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS MUCAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KT COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN CO INTO NERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY A FEW TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP OVER ERN CO...BUT THEN AS MORE STORMS DEVELOP...A MCS WILL FORM WITH THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS TIME BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY TPC/NHC OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD WITH THE CENTER EXPECTED INTO S CENTRAL LA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE TPC/NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 16:26:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 11:26:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507051637.j65GbTga014706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051634 SWODY1 SPC AC 051632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CYS 50 S GCC 20 NNE 81V 45 SE PHP 15 NW HSI 30 ESE CSM 30 E BGS 30 S INK 35 SSE GDP 40 NW GDP 15 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HUL 20 ESE LCI 35 SW ABE 20 SSW LBE 30 S YNG 25 WNW ERI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 15 SSE BTR 30 NE MCB LUL 65 SW SEM 15 NW CEW 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 20 SSE ONM 35 NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 25 N BCE 40 SSW ELY 55 W ELY 50 SE BAM 10 SE EKO 60 S TWF 30 SSW MLD 25 SSW RKS 40 WSW LAR 50 SW DGW 35 SE SHR 50 W 4BQ 15 NE MLS 30 NW GDV 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PSX 30 NW VCT 40 ESE JCT 40 WSW JCT 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 40 ENE JMS 40 SSE ABR 10 SW BKX 40 SW SPW 30 SW DSM 25 NE STJ 10 WNW TOP 30 WSW CNU 35 ESE BVO 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 20 W OWB 30 WSW BMG 15 E DNV 30 SSE MMO 40 SE DBQ 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE RHI 40 N TVC 10 SE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...NERN WY/WRN SD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... APPEARS ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING OVER THE WRN PLAINS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S INTO WRN SD...WHERE 12Z SOUNDING FROM RAP INDICATED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK CAP. WITH MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW /25-35 KT AT H5/ FORECAST ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB/NERN CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...THOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS AND SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH INTO SERN CO AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE STORMS IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS TROUGH THE EVENING. DEGREE OF HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY COMPLEX WHICH CAN FORM MAY PERSIST WELL EWD INTO WRN KS/WRN TX/WRN OK AFTER DARK WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IS ALREADY INCREASING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OH. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WLY MID LEVEL WINDS...SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. PRIMARY THREAT MAY FOCUS FROM WRN PA NEWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD INTO THE REGION. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SBCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE LAPSE RATES MAY HAMPER OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER EXPECT SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW AND SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE FROM CLUSTERS/LINES THAT SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT...AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM NC INTO CENTRAL VA/MID ATLANTIC. COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA. WITH 20-25 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...STORMS MAY SPREAD AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY SHIFT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...SERN LA INTO SRN AL/SRN MS/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE BROADER REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS H85 WIND INCREASE AND BACK TO MORE ELY AHEAD OF T.S. CINDY. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND CLOUD BASES JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY WIND DAMAGE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 19:41:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 14:41:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507051952.j65Jqd2G002095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051950 SWODY1 SPC AC 051948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CYS 15 W 81V 35 SW REJ 35 SE PHP 20 SW BBW 30 WSW RSL 30 NE CSM 35 ESE CDS 30 E BGS 30 SSE INK 30 SSE GDP 40 NW GDP 15 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HUL 20 N PSM 35 SW ABE 25 NE MGW 25 ESE CAK 45 NW ERI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 ENE BTR 45 NE MCB 25 NE LUL 55 SW SEM 35 NNW CEW 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 25 W VCT 15 ENE HDO 55 WNW HDO 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 25 W ELP 35 S ABQ 35 NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 25 N BCE 40 SSW ELY 55 W ELY 50 SE BAM 15 NNW EKO 60 S TWF 30 SSW MLD 25 SSE RKS 35 WNW LAR 10 SSE CPR 25 SSE SHR 50 W 4BQ 20 NNE MLS 40 NW GDV 75 NW ISN ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK 40 ENE JMS 40 SSE ABR 10 SW BKX 40 SW SPW 30 SW DSM 25 NE STJ 10 WNW TOP 30 WSW CNU 35 ESE BVO 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 20 W OWB 30 WSW BMG 15 E DNV 30 SSE MMO 40 SE DBQ 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE RHI 40 N TVC 10 SE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE NERN U.S.... ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NERN NM THROUGH CNTRL CO AND INTO SERN WY WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD. SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG E OF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN CO. VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FROM CO INTO SERN WY. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOVE THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN CO...SERN WY AS WELL AS SWRN NEB AND WRN KS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... THREAT OF MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST AS T.S. CINDY MOVES TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INLAND LATER TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL EXIST WITH RAIN BANDS E OF THE CENTER WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST. ...NERN U.S.... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NERN STATES WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. THE THREAT OF PRIMARY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DIAL.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 00:55:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 19:55:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507060105.j6615s3t020092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060103 SWODY1 SPC AC 060101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CYS 45 SE 81V 65 N PHP 35 W HON 35 ESE BUB 35 WNW HLC 60 S LBL 35 NNE PVW 10 SW LBB 20 NNE HOB 20 N CNM 40 SW ROW 15 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE HUM 35 SE MCB 10 SW LUL 35 SE MEI 55 SW SEM 30 N CEW 10 NW AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW ORF 30 SW RIC 35 SSW CHO 30 NW MRB 40 NNW CXY 25 SE AVP 20 S EWR 15 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 35 S ABQ 35 NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 30 WSW 4HV 45 SSE U24 40 W U24 30 SSE ENV 35 NE ENV 30 SSW MLD EVW 25 SSE RKS 35 WNW LAR 20 WSW DGW 10 SE GCC 45 ENE 4BQ 30 ESE GDV 10 NNE SDY 55 N ISN ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK 40 ENE JMS 40 SSE ABR 30 W FSD 25 WNW SUX 35 WNW OMA BIE 25 ENE SLN ICT 15 NNE TUL 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 25 NNE HOP 30 WSW LUK 25 WNW CMH 25 W TOL 25 NW CGX 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE RHI 40 N TVC 10 SE APN ...CONT... 15 SSE PSX 25 W VCT 15 ENE HDO 55 WNW HDO 20 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMINDER OF TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SERN QUEBEC INTO THE NERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN NWLY FLOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO WLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW...NAMELY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER FROM WRN SD INTO N CENTRAL NM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WRN AREAS OF ME SWWD ACROSS SERN NY STATE AND SWRN WV...THEN CONTINUES AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THRU NWRN AL INTO NRN TX AND ERN CO. FINALLY...T.S. CINDY WAS LOCATED S OF SERN LA NOW MOVING NNEWD TOWARDS EXTREME SERN LA AND SERN MS. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NHC/TPC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. ...NERN PARTS OF THE U.S. INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... LINE OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MLCAPES ARE 500 TO 1500 J/KG FROM S CENTRAL PA INTO ERN VA. LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS FROM IAD SHOWS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 6-7C/KM. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PARTS PA..MD..NJ AND NRN VA. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW FROM TX/OK/KS INTO ERN CO CONTINUES TO INITIATE CONVERGENCE/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN CO INTO NERN NM...AND EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF SWRN SD. HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND WEAKER INSTABILITY ON THE LOWER PLAINS MAY LIMIT SEWD EXTEND OF SMALLER MCS OVER ERN CO TONIGHT...LIMITING TO WRN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT OVER SERN LA...SERN MS...SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AS T.S. CINDY MOVES NNEWD TOWARD EXTREME SERN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 05:27:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 00:27:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507060538.j665cT66001408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060536 SWODY1 SPC AC 060534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MOB 50 ESE LUL 45 WSW SEM 20 SW MGM 15 SSE TOI 25 W MAI PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GFK 55 W AXN 40 WSW RWF 30 SE FSD 45 WNW OLU 45 SSW EAR 40 N DDC 35 WNW GAG 20 N AMA 40 SW DHT 35 SE TAD 30 NE PUB 45 NW AKO 30 NW AIA 25 WSW PHP 45 WNW MBG 20 N BIS 45 SW DVL 45 WSW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW RRT 35 SSW STC 20 NE MCW 30 NNE OTM 25 ESE OJC 20 SSE JLN 40 SE HRO 25 NNW MEM 10 W BNA 40 WNW LOZ 15 NNW UNI 25 ENE CLE ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 20 NE 3B1 45 S HUL ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG 35 WSW ONM 45 W 4SL 50 N CEZ 50 W PUC 55 SSE BAM 70 NE SVE 70 ENE RDM 45 NE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS FROM THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS BROAD TROUGHING OCCURS OVER WRN CANADA LEAVING WSWLY FLOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THRU ERN PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. WILL EXTEND FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS NRN AL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EWD AND SEWD THRU THE NRN PLATEAU EXTENDING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND SWRN MT BY EVENING. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... SEE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES ON T.S. CINDY ISSUED BY NHC/TPC. LATEST PROJECTIONS TAKE THE CENTER OF T.S. CINDY NEWD INTO NWRN GA DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL...GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... NWLY FLOW WILL COVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF BUILDING RIDGE FROM CO INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH MUCAPE REACHING BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM ERN CO AND WRN NE INTO CENTRAL SD. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO A SMALL MCS...POSSIBLY TWO... OVER PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND OVER WRN NE ONTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER ERN CO INTO S CENTRAL SD. ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 12:49:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 07:49:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507061300.j66D09Cc026336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061255 SWODY1 SPC AC 061253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE ATY 20 ESE RWF 20 NE FOD 30 NE OMA 15 WNW OLU 25 WSW EAR 50 NE GCK CSM 55 N ABI 30 ESE BGS 30 WNW MAF 50 ENE ROW 50 SW CAO COS 20 WNW FCL 45 ESE DGW 20 N CDR 10 SSE ANW 20 ENE 9V9 10 ESE ATY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PNS 60 SSW SEM 40 SW 0A8 30 NW BHM 20 ESE RMG 15 NNE AHN 60 SSW AGS 45 WNW AYS 40 NW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 NE 3B1 45 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 35 WSW ONM 45 W 4SL 35 SW GJT 50 W PUC 35 WNW ELY 70 NE SVE 30 E RDM 45 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW RRT 25 WSW STC 10 W ALO 25 NNW IRK 30 NW BVO 30 SW MKO 20 WSW FSM JBR 30 SW BWG 40 WNW LOZ 15 NNW UNI 25 ENE CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS...AND THE MID MO VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE FROM THE ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS INTO THE NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH LOW NOW CROSSING THE BC CST. IN RESPONSE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF EXISTING BROAD TROUGH OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS SHOW T.S. "CINDY" CONTINUING TO BECOME ABSORBED IN SRN STREAM OF THE WLYS...WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOW SPREADING NEWD AROUND SRN SIDE OF CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY UPSTREAM IN THE SRN BRANCH INVOF THE UT/CO BORDER. ...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS... DIURNAL HEATING...APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS TODAY...BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD REGION IN EARNEST LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE ONCE AGAIN RISING TO AOA 2000 J/KG...AND WITH NW TO NNWLY DEEP SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 KTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. INCREASED NLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT AND RECENT INCURSIONS OF SLIGHTLY COOL AIR/STORM OUTFLOW OVER THE LOWER PLAINS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY SSE TOWARD/INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN ERN NM...AND POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY SSEWD INTO PARTS OF W TX. ...SERN STATES... REMNANT CIRCULATION OF "CINDY" EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NNEWD ACROSS AL AND GA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING OF "WARM SECTOR" IN ERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLUX...SETUP MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATIONAL TENDENCIES TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOME THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS RESIDUAL LLJ REDEVELOPS NEWD INTO NRN GA/UPSTATE SC. ...NE NEB/ERN SD/SW MN/NW IA... AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF THE PLAINS LLJ...WILL ENHANCE WAA ON BACKSIDE OF MS/OH VLY SURFACE RIDGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO VLY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 16:19:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 11:19:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507061630.j66GU9Nc024087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061625 SWODY1 SPC AC 061623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ABI 35 ESE BGS 30 NE INK 35 E ROW 35 SSE RTN 20 WSW PUB 15 WNW FCL 50 NNE CYS 10 NNE BFF 25 NE SNY 40 SSW IML 25 WNW GCK 30 SW GAG 15 SSW LTS 55 N ABI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FRM 25 NE FOD 25 NW DSM 50 E OMA 40 ENE OLU 30 NW OFK 10 SSW MHE 10 ESE BKX FRM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 65 NNE MOB 20 WNW SEM 30 NNW AUO 30 E CSG 35 NNE ABY 35 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ISN 15 WSW OLF 35 ESE LWT 30 NNW BZN 40 NNE 3DU 55 SSW CTB 50 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 S EPM ...CONT... 35 E OWB 30 SSE BMG 20 ESE DEC 30 WSW MLI 30 N IRK 10 WSW P35 15 NE FNB 30 WNW MHK 35 W HUT 25 SSW END 50 ESE SPS 40 S FTW 55 SE DAL 45 SSW PRX 20 ESE MLC 25 NNW FSM JBR 25 NW HOP 35 E OWB ...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 W ELP 40 SSE TCS 10 NE TCS 10 SSE ABQ 20 ESE 4SL 40 ENE DRO 30 W GJT 35 W PUC 35 NNW DPG 55 SSE EKO 25 SSW BAM 40 NNE WMC 60 SSE BNO 60 SSW BNO 15 W 4LW 10 E RBL 25 N UKI 35 SSE EKA 35 NE ACV 25 NW MFR 25 WNW RDM 60 NE RDM 20 WSW ALW 40 WSW GEG 45 ESE 4OM 30 N 4OM ...CONT... 40 ENE RKS 40 E RWL 10 NNE DGW 15 NE GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 WSW COD 40 WNW LND 40 ENE RKS ...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 S GFK 20 SSW FAR 45 SSW AXN 20 WSW MSP 50 ENE MSP 25 WSW IWD 35 NE RHI 35 NNE GRB 45 N GRR 15 ENE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST INTO SRN AL/SWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NERN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO PORTIONS OF WRN IA... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... 12Z SOUNDING FROM DNR INDICATES LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DESPITE SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE MID 50S INTO THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER 60S OUT OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS. THUS...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AGAIN BOOST MLCAPES INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE BY 20Z. MORNING OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH SPREADS ESEWD LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM ERN CO INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS BOTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPSTREAM. THEREFORE... SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER TODAY. REGARDLESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENCE OF 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS...THOUGH OVERALL MODE MAY TRANSITION TO MORE MULTICELL IN NATURE BY THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL STONES...WILL AGAIN BE PRIMARY THREAT. AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS...ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SSEWD MAINLY INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX AFTER DARK AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...WRN FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/WRN GA... REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SYSTEM SHIFTS N AND THEN NEWD THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS...MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP WITH STRONGER CORES /AS EVIDENCED RECENTLY JUST EAST OF MOB/. THUS...THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE...SHOULD ACCOMPANY STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL/NERN MT... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST OVER MUCH OF MT THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S AS FAR WEST AS LWT AND HVR AT 16Z. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED HEATING. SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS ID AND INTO NWRN MT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WRN MT LATER TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS AS THEY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN MT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ...SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO PORTIONS OF IA... 12Z SOUNDING FROM ABR INDICATES MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER COOL FOR JULY OVER THIS REGION /H5 TEMPS NEAR -12C/. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA. THOUGH FORCING/CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 19:53:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 14:53:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507062004.j66K43IN032370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062001 SWODY1 SPC AC 062000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ABI 35 ESE BGS 30 WNW MAF 40 NNE CNM 45 ESE LVS 20 WSW PUB 15 W FCL 45 W BFF BFF 30 ESE SNY 40 SSW IML 30 WNW GCK 35 SW GAG 30 W LTS 65 N ABI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CEW 20 S MGM 10 N BHM 20 NW RMG 55 E RMG 25 E ATL 25 S TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 20 WSW OLF 35 ESE LWT 30 NNW BZN 35 NE 3DU 55 SSW CTB 50 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE RKS 40 E RWL 10 NNW DGW 10 N GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 WSW COD 40 WNW LND 40 ENE RKS ...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 S GFK 20 SSW FAR 45 SSW AXN 20 WSW MSP 50 ENE MSP 25 WSW IWD 35 NE RHI 35 NNE GRB 45 N GRR 15 ENE MTC ...CONT... 35 E OWB 30 SSE BMG 20 ESE DEC 30 WSW MLI 40 NW UIN 20 SE P35 STJ 30 WNW EMP 40 N P28 25 SSW END 50 ESE SPS FTW 35 ESE DAL 35 N TYR 20 ESE MLC 25 NNW FSM JBR 25 NW HOP 35 E OWB ...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 W ELP 40 SSE TCS 10 NE TCS 10 SSE ABQ 20 ESE 4SL 40 ENE DRO 30 W GJT 35 W PUC 35 NNW DPG 55 SSE EKO 25 SSW BAM 40 NNE WMC 60 SSE BNO 60 SSW BNO 15 W 4LW 10 E RBL 25 N UKI 35 SSE EKA 35 NE ACV 25 NW MFR 25 WNW RDM 60 NE RDM 20 WSW ALW 40 WSW GEG 45 ESE 4OM 30 N 4OM ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 20 S EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN MT... ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAKER MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR THAN IN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEAKER FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS MAY SLOWER TO DEVELOP EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE THE WEAKER FLOW...0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT IS STILL AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND NM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAVE MOVED INLAND AND ARE LOCATED OVER SWRN AL. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN BANDS E OF THE CENTER ACROSS AL...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO WRN GA LATER THIS EVENING. PRIMARY RAINBAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH SERN AND E CNTRL AL. CLOUD BREAKS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN VICINITY OF THIS RAINBAND. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE AUGMENTED WHERE SUPERCELLS ARE LIFTING NWD THROUGH E CNTRL AL AND INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO PRE-EXISTING E-W BOUNDARY. ...MT... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER CNTRL MT WITH MID TO UPPER 50S PERSISTING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS. RESULTING MLCAPE RANGES FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE TO IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN THE EAST. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL MT AND RUC/SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS N CNTRL MT. SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NEWD. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 00:48:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 19:48:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507070058.j670wpg3016179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070056 SWODY1 SPC AC 070055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW CDS 45 N BGS 40 W INK 35 NW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 25 NNW CVS 35 WSW CAO 10 S PUB 25 W LIC AKO 40 N GLD 30 SSE GLD GCK 50 SW GAG 15 SW CDS 50 SW CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DHN 15 NNW TOI 20 SE BHM GAD 40 NNE ATL 30 S AHN 30 N ABY 35 E DHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK GFK 10 SSE FAR 40 SSW AXN FRM MCW ALO 10 SSE CID 40 NW UIN P35 LNK GRI BBW 25 WNW RSL LTS MWL 40 ESE DAL TXK PBF DYR SDF HUF BMI LNR 55 NNE EAU 25 WSW IWD 35 WNW IMT GRB 25 ESE JVL 40 S CGX SBN MFD YNG IPT 35 SW BGM ITH 35 NNE UCA ALB 15 SSW PSF 15 SW EWB ...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 W ELP TCS ABQ 4SL 40 ENE DRO 30 W GJT PUC 25 SSE DPG ELY 40 NNE TPH TPH 30 W BIH 45 S TVL 45 W RNO SVE 75 ENE 4LW BNO 65 E RDM 20 WSW ALW PUW 63S 30 N 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE RKS 40 E RWL 10 NNW DGW 10 N GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 WSW COD 40 WNW LND 40 ENE RKS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...ERN GULF STATES... WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BECOMING FOCUSED IN BELT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW... LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. ...ERN MT... ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. THIS... COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...MAY LIMIT DURATION/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...ELSEHWERE... ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP BEFORE NIGHTFALL IN HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 05:47:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 00:47:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507070558.j675wRTA019808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070555 SWODY1 SPC AC 070553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC CDS BWD 10 SSW JCT 25 ENE FST INK 40 E ROW TCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT AXN 10 S FSD 10 SW 9V9 PHP RAP 30 WNW REJ GDV 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AND HKY LYH 25 SSE CHO RIC 35 WNW ECG 30 SSE FAY 35 SE AGS 45 SSE AHN 20 NNW AND. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 25 NW ELO 45 ENE BRD 25 NW MSP 10 W RST 35 SE DBQ 25 SSE BRL 15 SSW LWD 20 SE SUX 10 SE GRI 40 W HUT 35 ESE FSI 40 NNW DAL 40 SSE GGG 35 SE MLU 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 60 WSW RTN 20 SW ASE 35 WNW VEL 25 ENE DPG 50 SSE EKO 55 WSW OWY 50 E BKE 30 NE S80 50 WNW HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE ALEUTIANS...MODELS INDICATE LARGER SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW PROGGED WEST NORTHWEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY. DOWNSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE LEE OF THE U.S. ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH NORTHEAST OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BORDER. FARTHER EAST...WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIFT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... STRONGER FLOW FIELDS...INCLUDING 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EAST/ NORTHEAST OF REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION...ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THERE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE AMPLE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG. UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT...AND VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY PEAK HEATING. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL NORTH OF REGION...FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH CREST OF UPPER RIDGE BY/ SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-4000 J/KG ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVOLUTION OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. IF CAP BREAKS...INITIATION OF STORMS SEEMS MOST LIKELY NEAR SURFACE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGEST STORMS. CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY FORM A LARGE SURFACE COLD POOL AND BROADER SCALE STRONG WIND THREAT...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MOST PROBABLE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS AS IT STALLS FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FORMS AND DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 12:26:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 07:26:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507071236.j67CaqkL031010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071234 SWODY1 SPC AC 071232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LVS 20 NE TAD 25 ESE LHX 25 ENE PVW 60 WNW ABI 10 NNW BWD 15 NNE MWL 10 WSW TYR 35 SSE LFK 40 N PSX 15 ESE HDO 25 ENE FST 25 N INK 40 E ROW 35 ESE LVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT AXN 20 NNE FSD 25 W YKN 20 WSW 9V9 PHP RAP 40 ENE 4BQ GDV 70 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 SSE FAY 50 S CAE 45 N AGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 60 WSW RTN 20 SW ASE 35 WNW VEL 25 ENE DPG 50 SSE EKO 55 WSW OWY 50 E BKE 30 NE S80 50 WNW HVR ...CONT... 25 NW ELO 45 ENE BRD 25 NW MSP 10 W RST 35 SE DBQ 25 SSE BRL 15 SSW LWD OMA 45 ESE HSI 40 W HUT 30 ENE FSI 35 S ADM 25 SSW HOT 10 S LIT 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ERN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HI PLNS AND CNTRL/SE TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL RCKYS AND THE HI PLNS NE INTO THE N CNTRL STATES THIS PERIOD AS POTENT NE PACIFIC SPEED MAX/TROUGH NOW CROSSING 150W CONTINUES EWD. OVER THE ERN U.S...BUILDING OF PLAINS RIDGE LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLIFICATION OF EXISTING TROUGH. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY /1/ CONTINUED ABSORPTION OF REMNANTS OF "CINDY" AND /2/ CONTINUED E/SE MOTION OF MCVS AND ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FROM THE SRN PLNS. ...CAROLINAS/SE VA... SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FORMER T.S. "CINDY" IS NEAR ATL ATTM AND SHOULD MOVE NE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APLCNS TODAY... REACHING ERN MD/DE BY 12Z FRIDAY. SURFACE DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM CINDY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SE VA. MODERATE SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS BOUNDARY REMAINS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC /850-700 MB/ WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY... WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40 KTS...APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA ATTM AND SHOULD LIFT ENE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS CINDY SHEARS NEWD. COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD...UPLIFT ALONG BOUNDARY AND HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET. ...SRN HI PLNS INTO S CNTRL/SE TX... WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND RECURRENT MCS OUTFLOWS HAVE PRODUCED A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE FROM NW TX INTO OK. S OF THIS AXIS...SELY FLOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING OF THE NM MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...MODERATE /25-30 KT/ NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ON FRINGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE PRODUCTION OF HIGH WINDS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER E/SE...OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AND/OR INTENSIFY INVOF OF OVERNIGHT MCS THAT IS NOW OVER N CNTRL TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON SWRN FRINGE OF AMPLIFYING ERN STATES TROUGH. THIS MAY CREATE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SUSTENANCE AND CONTINUED SE MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMPARED TO SIMILAR MCSS IN RECENT DAYS. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL. ...NRN PLNS... STLT DATA SUGGEST THAT MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE N CNTRL STATES WILL REMAIN N OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER FAR ERN MT/WRN ND LATER TODAY...INVOF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN SASKATCHEWAN. COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ AND 30+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE ERN MT/ND STORMS SHOULD BY THIS EVENING CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBSTANTIAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. THIS SYSTEM LIKELY WILL MOVE E/SE INTO ERN SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. FARTHER N...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ...MAY MOVE ACROSS NRN ND...IN MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CLOSE TO COLD FRONT. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 16:26:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 11:26:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507071637.j67Gb8PE021198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071632 SWODY1 SPC AC 071631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT AXN 20 NNE FSD 25 W YKN 20 WSW 9V9 PHP RAP 40 ENE 4BQ GDV 70 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 S FAY 50 S CAE 45 N AGS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 N COT 10 WSW P07 25 N MRF 35 E LVS 30 NNE TAD 25 SE LHX 20 E DHT 70 ESE LBB 25 WNW BWD 50 SE BWD 10 SW ACT 35 S DAL 20 WNW TYR 35 SSW SHV 20 ESE POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 WSW DLH 10 E EAU 35 WSW OSH 30 ESE MKE 15 ENE MTC ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 40 SSE VCT 60 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP 35 SSE SAF 20 SW ASE 45 ESE VEL 20 ENE DPG 20 NNW ELY 60 W ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW SUN 35 NE 27U 30 WNW GTF 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DSM 30 NNW MHK 30 NW GCK 20 E EHA 55 W CSM 20 W DUA 40 NE PRX 35 NNW LIT 30 SW JBR 25 W MDH 30 NNE ALN 40 ESE BRL 15 SSE DSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND PIEDMONT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/ERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...CAROLINAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... SURFACE LOW/REMNANTS OF CINDY IS LOCATED OVER FAR NRN GA/WRN NC AS OF 16Z...AND WILL CONTINUE A NEWD TRACK LIKELY ALONG STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER NWD ACROSS WRN NC AND NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE REGION. SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE BAROCLINIC WITH TIME WITH A PSEUDO-COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN GA ATTM. A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO ERN VA WILL FUEL INTENSE STORMS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF MINI-SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO WRN LA... MCV ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS ERN TX TODAY. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 70S AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. AS CAPPING BREAKS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/STRENGTHEN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO E-CENTRAL/SERN TX AND POSSIBLY WRN LA THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH AMBIENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH PROFILER DATA OVER ERN TX INDICATING MID LEVEL WINDS FROM 15-20 KT...NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER FLOW IS LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF MID LEVEL MCV. THUS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUSTAIN AN ORGANIZED LINE/POSSIBLE BOWING MCS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS AS CAP WEAKENS OVER AND JUST EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO ERN NM AND WRN TX LATER TODAY. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY FIRE INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE WEST TX PLAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING WEAKENS CAP. NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM 20-30 KT WILL SUPPORT MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WIND THREAT AS THEY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING...WITH BROAD AREA OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION NEAR 21Z. WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND SUPPORT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR BY LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL/ AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER WRN/CENTRAL ND AND NWRN SD ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS/POSSIBLE BOW ECHO WHICH WILL THEN RACE SEWD THOUGH THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER DARK. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 19:41:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 14:41:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507071952.j67JqBPP020395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071949 SWODY1 SPC AC 071948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT AXN 15 NE FSD 35 W YKN 10 SW PHP 25 S RAP GCC 25 ESE WRL 25 NNE LVM 35 WNW GDV 70 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 S FAY 50 S CAE 45 N AGS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 N COT 15 NNE DRT 25 SW P07 25 N MRF 35 E LVS 30 NNE TAD 25 SE LHX 20 E DHT 70 ESE LBB 25 WNW BWD 50 SE BWD 10 SW ACT 35 S DAL 20 WNW TYR 35 SSW SHV 20 ESE POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 45 S GNT 20 NE MTJ 45 ESE VEL 25 ENE SLC 30 S EKO 25 S OWY 55 SSW MSO 30 WNW GTF 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 40 SE DLH 10 E EAU 15 NE GRB 30 SW MBL OSC ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 40 SSE CRP 25 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DSM 30 NNW MHK DDC 30 NW GAG 55 W CSM 20 W DUA 40 NE PRX 35 NNW LIT 30 SW JBR 25 W MDH 30 NNE ALN 40 ESE BRL 15 SSE DSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS / VA... ...NRN PLAINS INTO SRN MT / NRN WY... STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY AND INTO SWRN MT...INVOF SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN / WRN ND WSWWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN WY. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING NEAR LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS OF SD...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY INITIATE FURTHER N INVOF FRONT ACROSS WRN ND / NWRN SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- NOW FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES -- SHOULD INCREASE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SEWD-MOVING / POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SERN TX... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS E TX ATTM...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER W...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN CO SWD INTO SERN NM...WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED ATTM. SELY / UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW WHICH NOW LIES FROM ROUGHLY CVS TO BWD. MODEST NLY / NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS...WITH MAIN THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE SWD / SSEWD ACROSS PARTS OF W AND PERHAPS CENTRAL TX. ...CAROLINAS / VA... REMNANTS OF CINDY -- NOW CENTERED NEAR THE VA / NC BORDER -- SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH TIME. MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS NE THROUGH S OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL SC NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA. MODERATE / WEAKLY-VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD JUST E OF CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING BUT CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD AS SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. ..GOSS.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 00:50:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 19:50:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507080101.j6811LCr019582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080058 SWODY1 SPC AC 080057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT GFK 15 NE FSD YKN 15 NW VTN PHP 45 ESE REJ 15 NW REJ 20 NW DIK 55 NNW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W SOP GSO 20 SSE CHO 40 ENE RIC 20 E ECG 20 N OAJ 30 S FAY 25 SSW SOP 45 W SOP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC 45 WSW CAO 35 SE LHX 40 E LAA LBL CDS 65 N ABI 40 ESE BGS 15 SSE MAF 35 NNE HOB TCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CRP 25 WNW LRD ...CONT... ELP SAF 40 NNE ALS 30 E CAG RWL CPR 50 SSE WRL RIW LND 10 WSW SLC ENV ELY TPH 35 NE NID NID 50 ESE FAT 15 SSE TVL 35 WNW U31 BAM OWY 55 SSW MSO GTF 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 15 N PBG GFL 50 WSW ALB MSV PHL 10 E ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 20 SW PHX SAD 45 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL BRD MKT ALO 25 WNW DSM OMA 20 W LNK EAR 35 SE HLC CSM MWL 60 SW TYR 50 SW LFK 20 N BPT 40 NW LFT HEZ JAN 40 ENE JAN MEI 30 NNE MOB MAI 25 NW AYS 35 NW SAV CLT ROA EKN MGW ZZV 25 SSE LEX CSV 25 NE CHA 20 SSE RMG GAD MSL OWB 35 S HUF DEC MMO 10 ESE SBN MBS 55 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.... MUCH OF ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING/DIMINISHING WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL INCLUDE.../1/ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND /2/ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BULK OF CONVECTION LIKELY WILL SPREAD WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION...WHERE STABLE BOUNDARY AND WEAK CAPE SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AT LEAST NARROW LINE OF STORMS MAY PERSIST IN TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND ...BACK INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...SPREADING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY EAST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BEGIN TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...WEAK TROUGHING IS STILL EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING INHIBITION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF TROUGH IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER IMPULSE...RAPID INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL/NORTH DAKOTA. EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY TEND TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ...SRN PLAINS... FOR DETAILS...REFER TO LATEST WW AND ASSOCIATED SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 01:07:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 20:07:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507080117.j681HrA0026749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080115 SWODY1 SPC AC 080113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT GFK 15 NE FSD YKN 15 NW VTN PHP 45 ESE REJ 15 NW REJ 20 NW DIK 55 NNW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CVS 50 SSW CAO 40 SSE LHX 25 SE LIC 50 SW GLD 60 E DHT 20 NE PVW 25 S LBB 40 NE HOB 45 ENE ROW 35 W CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W SOP GSO 20 SSE CHO 40 ENE RIC 20 E ECG 20 N OAJ 30 S FAY 25 SSW SOP 45 W SOP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CRP 25 WNW LRD ...CONT... ELP SAF 40 NNE ALS 30 E CAG RWL CPR 50 SSE WRL RIW LND 10 WSW SLC ENV ELY TPH 35 NE NID NID 50 ESE FAT 15 SSE TVL 35 WNW U31 BAM OWY 55 SSW MSO GTF 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 15 N PBG GFL 50 WSW ALB MSV PHL 10 E ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 20 SW PHX SAD 45 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL BRD MKT ALO 25 WNW DSM OMA 20 W LNK EAR 35 SE HLC CSM MWL 60 SW TYR 50 SW LFK 20 N BPT 40 NW LFT HEZ JAN 40 ENE JAN MEI 30 NNE MOB MAI 25 NW AYS 35 NW SAV CLT ROA EKN MGW ZZV 25 SSE LEX CSV 25 NE CHA 20 SSE RMG GAD MSL OWB 35 S HUF DEC MMO 10 ESE SBN MBS 55 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IN SRN PLAINS. MUCH OF ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING/DIMINISHING WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL INCLUDE.../1/ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND /2/ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BULK OF CONVECTION LIKELY WILL SPREAD WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION...WHERE STABLE BOUNDARY AND WEAK CAPE SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AT LEAST NARROW LINE OF STORMS MAY PERSIST IN TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND ...BACK INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...SPREADING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY EAST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BEGIN TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...WEAK TROUGHING IS STILL EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING INHIBITION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF TROUGH IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER IMPULSE...RAPID INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL/NORTH DAKOTA. EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY TEND TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ...SRN PLAINS... FOR DETAILS...REFER TO LATEST WW AND ASSOCIATED SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 05:36:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 00:36:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507080547.j685laIW011713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080545 SWODY1 SPC AC 080543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 50 N TUS 30 WNW SAD 20 NNE SOW 35 NW GUP 25 NE MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 35 W ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 WNW LOL 65 S BNO 35 E RDM 45 E DLS 55 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LNR 35 WSW CID 40 NNE STJ 30 SW TOP 15 WNW END 40 ENE CSM 20 ENE SPS 30 NW TXK 30 ESE PBF 20 N CBM 20 ENE CSG 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 10 SSE CMI 20 SW CGX 25 SSW MBL 10 S GRB 20 NE LNR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL.... AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGS EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY...CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND. MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BUT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY...LIFTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES INTO ALBERTA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...BROAD COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MOSTLY MINOR... GENERALLY HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THREATS. EXCEPTION MAY BE PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... WHERE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA/KEYS... SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF APPROACHING HURRICANE MAY SUPPORT RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER BANDS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CENTER OF DENNIS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT TODAY...BENEATH AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG A COUPLE OF NARROW AXES. ONE SHOULD EXTEND ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING IMPULSE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THE OTHER APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS A CONCERN...BOTH AXES SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND SOME HAIL...BUT...EVEN WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WEAK...MITIGATING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...MONTANA... INHIBITION IS A CONCERN BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE... PARTICULARLY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. FORCING COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING BECOMES INHIBITIVE. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND COULD STILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS ...MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS BULK OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF REGION DURING THE DAY. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES... RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVELS NEAR UPPER LOW COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE BREEZES...AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 12:50:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 07:50:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507081300.j68D0vua006667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081259 SWODY1 SPC AC 081257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LNR 35 WSW CID 40 NNE STJ 30 SW TOP 15 WNW END 40 ENE CSM 20 ENE SPS 30 NW TXK 30 ESE PBF 20 N CBM 20 ENE CSG 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 10 SSE CMI 20 SW CGX 25 SSW MBL 10 S GRB 20 NE LNR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 35 E PHX 45 S INW 45 ENE INW 35 NW GUP 25 NE MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 35 W ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 WNW LOL 65 S BNO 35 E RDM 45 E DLS 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SW FL AND THE FL KEYS.... ...SW FL AREA... HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA AND EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WILL OVERSPREAD SW FL AND THE KEYS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...PLAINS AREA... THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ARE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NE SD/SW MN. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY LIFT WITH A 25-30 KT LLJ OVER THE GUST FRONT...AND ASCENT ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER MANITOBA AND ERN ND. SWD PROPAGATION ON THE OUTFLOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG. THOUGH ABSOLUTE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK...ROUGHLY 180 DEGREES OF VEERING FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. OTHER STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS...AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 25-35 KT LLJ...AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON..AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL. ...MT AREA... HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED...WITH STORM INITIATION TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR STORM FORMATION WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS OF SW MT THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WRN WA. INVERTED-V PROFILES...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ...NRN OH/WRN NY/WRN PA/SE LOWER MI AREA... A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MI WILL DRIFT EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH ROUGHLY 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14 C WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...SE AZ/SW NM AREA... LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXED LAYERS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... THE AREA OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS SPREADING NEWD OVER ERN PA/NJ TOWARD NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR NOW LAGS TO THE SW ACROSS ERN VA/NC. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF VA/NC...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MARGINAL AT BEST. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 16:31:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 11:31:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507081641.j68GfwLo016923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081631 SWODY1 SPC AC 081629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CVS 10 WNW ABI 65 WNW AUS SAT 40 WSW HDO DRT 30 NW P07 25 E GDP ROW 40 SSE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW ANJ 30 ENE GRB 15 WNW DBQ 10 WNW OTM 25 NNE STJ 15 WNW END 30 E CSM 35 SE SPS 25 NE DAL 20 W TXK 10 WNW MEM 35 NW MSL 20 NNE LGC 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 20 NNW HUF 20 W AZO 45 NE MKG 45 N APN ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 50 NW GUP 25 NNW MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 40 WSW ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 W LOL 50 WNW OWY 15 S LWS 45 NW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SWRN FL PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NM SEWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SRN TX.... ...SW FL PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA AND MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL IMPROVE DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DENNIS ISSUED BY NHC. ...EXTREME SERN NM SEWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF S CENTRAL TX... A BAND OF 30 KT MID LEVEL NLY WINDS EXTENDED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO SWRN TX ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO SERN TX. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN TX SHOWED EXTREMELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 700 TO 500 MB WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WERE AIDING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. INTENSE HEATING...TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS MID LEVEL CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO SURFACE BASED STORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ...PLAINS AREA... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN SD AND NWRN IA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 25-30 KT LLJ. COMPLEX MAY GRADUALLY BACKBUILD SSWWD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS INTO NERN NEB...BUT WILL BE FIGHTING STRONGER CAP AS IT MOVES SWD. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED COLD POOL... HEATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER... STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS WEAKENING OVER NRN KS. LBF SOUNDING SHOWED THIS AREA WAS STRONGLY CAPPED AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. HOWEVER..STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH SEVERE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/ WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. ....UPPER MIDWEST... HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN MN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS HAVE THUS FAR LIMITED HEATING...THOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS MN SHOWED MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOME QUESTION ABOUT STORM INITIATION GIVEN CLOUDS...AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME ERN MN/NWRN WI WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAKER. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN WEST OF AREA OF STRONGER DYNAMICAL LIFTING...SO ONLY LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE ATTM. ...MT... HEIGHT RISES AND A STRONG CAP SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS ERN MT. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IN PACIFIC NW. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ...SERN GREAT LAKES AREA... A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD. DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH 500 MB TEMPS FROM -13 TO -15C WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. ...EXTREME SERN AZ/SW NM AREA... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD FROM MEXICO NWD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE...WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EVEN LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE. ..IMY/GUYER.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 19:56:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 14:56:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507082007.j68K72hU007607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082004 SWODY1 SPC AC 082002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W FMY 50 ESE FMY 15 SSE MIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W LBB 45 WSW ABI 35 N JCT 45 S JCT 15 NNW DRT 20 ESE MRF 25 E GDP 15 SE ROW 25 W LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 50 NW GUP 25 NNW MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 40 WSW ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 W LOL 50 WNW OWY 15 S LWS 45 NW CTB ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 30 ENE GRB 15 WNW DBQ 10 WNW OTM 25 NNE STJ 15 WNW END 30 E CSM 35 SE SPS 25 NE DAL 20 W TXK 10 WNW MEM 35 NW MSL 20 NNE LGC 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 20 NNW HUF 20 W AZO 45 NE MKG 45 N APN ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN NM / W TX... ...SRN FL / THE KEYS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF DENNIS CONTINUE SPREADING WNWWD ACROSS SRN FL AND THE KEYS ATTM. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG /AROUND 40 KT/ AND WEAKLY-VEERING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS WITHIN OUTER BANDS. THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS STORM CONTINUES MOVING NWWD ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...SERN NM SEWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY... VERY WARM / DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HAS EVOLVED ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL TX INTO SERN NM ATTM...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S HAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS / LOW ROLLING PLAINS...MAIN AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX / SERN NM. GIVEN HIGH STORM BASES...MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY INCREASE / SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS PARTS OF W TX OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY SELY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION. ...MT... APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH STILL OFF THE PAC NW COAST HAS RESULTED IN SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER...AS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES...AND SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR E AS ERN MT / WRN ND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF CONVECTION. MODERATE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / SEVERE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL MT WWD. WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES / DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN WY / THE BLACK HILLS REGION/ SWD INTO NRN NM...THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE VERY FAR EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE / CAPPING ALOFT. THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL / LIMITED IN EWD EXTENT. ...MN... AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED ACROSS SRN MN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY RE-INITIATE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SERN MANITOBA / NRN ND...OR PERHAPS IN WEAK CONVERGENCE / APPARENT OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL MN N OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. WITH 30 KT NLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE AN INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE SWD WITH TIME. ATTM... WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% HAIL / WIND THREAT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO STORM INITIATION. ...GULF COAST STATES FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO SRN AL... WEAK UPPER LOW / COLD POOL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE WEAK...A MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A STRONGER PULSE-TYPE STORM. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ATTM BENEATH COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LK HURON. THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT / RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN THIS EVENING. ...ERN AZ / WRN NM... MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF LOWER CO VALLEY UPPER LOW ABOVE VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER HAS YIELDED MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NM AND ADJACENT ERN AZ. GIVEN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW GUSTY / DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WARRANTING LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 00:50:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 19:50:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507090101.j69113rp015998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090059 SWODY1 SPC AC 090057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SRQ 40 SSW VRB PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BID 15 WSW ORH 15 ESE PSF GFL 20 N PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 35 WSW HUL 10 SSE EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS SOW INW BCE 10 N U24 EVW MLD 35 N ENV 35 WSW OWY 70 ESE BNO 60 ESE S80 10 NW 3DU 25 NNE CTB ...CONT... 10 N INL HIB 40 N RWF 10 SSW ATY MHE 20 NNE VTN PHP 10 WNW MBG BIS 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 20 NNE MQT IMT DBQ OTM FNB P28 10 SW LTS SEP ACT GGG ELD GWO MSL 50 NNE HSV CHA 30 SSW RMG ATL CAE 30 WNW ILM HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ROC ELM IPT CXY SHD HTS DAY AZO 60 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.... WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...STORMS MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME DUE TO STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL COOLING. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS**... SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY VERY STRONG IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL PROGRESS NORTHWEST OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AREAS WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN STRONGLY SHEARED. THIS WILL MAINTAINING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WHERE MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE COULD STILL BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING....FROM PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA. BEST CHANCE MAY BE NEAR WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NOW DRIFTING SOUTH OF MASON CITY IOWA. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ..KERR.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 01:23:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 20:23:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507090133.j691XhqZ029014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090131 SWODY1 SPC AC 090129 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SRQ 40 SSW VRB PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BID 15 WSW ORH 15 ESE PSF GFL 20 N PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 35 WSW HUL 10 SSE EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS SOW INW BCE 10 N U24 EVW MLD 35 N ENV 35 WSW OWY 70 ESE BNO 60 ESE S80 10 NW 3DU 25 NNE CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT BIS 10 WNW MBG PHP 20 NNE VTN MHE 10 SSW ATY 40 N RWF HIB 10 N INL ...CONT... 20 NNE MQT IMT DBQ OTM FNB P28 10 SW LTS SEP ACT GGG ELD GWO MSL 50 NNE HSV CHA 30 SSW RMG ATL CAE 30 WNW ILM HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ROC ELM IPT CXY SHD HTS DAY AZO 60 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... CORRECTED GENERAL TSTM LINE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS (DIRECTION OF ARROW) WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...STORMS MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME DUE TO STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL COOLING. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS**... SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY VERY STRONG IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL PROGRESS NORTHWEST OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AREAS WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN STRONGLY SHEARED. THIS WILL MAINTAINING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WHERE MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE COULD STILL BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING....FROM PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA. BEST CHANCE MAY BE NEAR WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NOW DRIFTING SOUTH OF MASON CITY IOWA. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ..KERR.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 05:33:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 00:33:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507090544.j695iEga026149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090542 SWODY1 SPC AC 090540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT GFK BIS DIK SDY 55 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS DHN MGR DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ACY 20 S AOO 10 WNW DUJ 25 NNE BUF ...CONT... 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 30 WNW SZL 30 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SE CDS 40 W ABI 35 S BWD 25 ENE ACT 20 NNW PRX 20 ESE PGO 35 WNW LIT 55 SSW JBR 20 S MKL 10 E CHA 40 NW AND 35 WSW SOP 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 35 SSW DMN 40 WSW ONM 25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 35 ESE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 35 SSE WRL 30 WNW RIW 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 35 N WMC 30 W BNO 10 N BKE 30 NNE 3DU 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FAR 45 ESE JMS 10 NW PIR 45 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN 15 WSW BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15 ENE RWF 30 NNW BRD 25 ENE FAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS EXIT REGION OF STRONG ZONAL HIGH LEVEL JET NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST LATTER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY/TONIGHT ...WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST COLD UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...WILL REMAIN WEAK. MODELS SUGGEST EMBEDDED IMPULSE NEAR UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS HURRICANE DENNIS PROPAGATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH MUCH OF THE NATION IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH WARM MID-LEVEL RIDGE...ANY SEVERE EVENTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR...AND WIDELY SCATTERED. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO THE HURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. ...EASTERN GULF STATES... CENTER OF DENNIS IS EXPECTED WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY 12Z TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF STORM COULD BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF MOBILE BAY INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EAST OF CIRCULATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN OUTER BANDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GREATEST THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME VERY MOIST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BENEATH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR OR EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORCING TO WEAKEN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST IMPULSE NOW PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERLIES...COULD CONTINUE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF CAP BREAKS...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...WITH SHEAR PROFILES JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...SOUTH/EAST OF WILLISTON... SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... DEVELOPING WITH BETTER FORCING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER WEST...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA...AS EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET STREAK CONTRIBUTES TO FORCING. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH...IN TURN...WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. ...NORTHEAST... BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ...ROTATING AROUND WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY COLD...ENOUGH HEATING APPEARS LIKELY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/ BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 12:47:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 07:47:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507091258.j69Cw9od006352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091256 SWODY1 SPC AC 091254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE DVL 20 ENE DVL 25 NE BIS DIK SDY 55 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS DHN MGR DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 15 NNW MRB 10 ESE FKL 15 WNW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 30 WNW SZL 30 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SE CDS 40 W ABI 35 S BWD 25 ENE ACT 20 NNW PRX 20 ESE PGO 35 WNW LIT 55 SSW JBR 20 S MKL 10 E CHA 40 NW AND 35 WSW SOP 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 SSW DUG 65 NNW SVC 25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 35 ESE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 35 SSE WRL 30 WNW RIW 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 35 N WMC 30 W BNO 10 N BKE 30 NNE 3DU 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FAR 45 ESE JMS 10 NW PIR 45 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15 ENE RWF 30 NNW BRD 25 ENE FAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST.... ...ERN GULF AREA... HURRICANE DENNIS IS MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY 100 MILES S OF PNS BY 10/12Z. THE OUTER ERN/NERN RAIN BANDS HAVE OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND S FL...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL REACH N FL LATER TODAY. THOUGH THE STORM CORE WILL NOT GET CLOSER TO THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT TODAY WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW LOCALIZED DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH ANY TORNADOES SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONES TO FOCUS THE THREAT. ...ND AREA... A MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A CYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL MT WILL DEVELOP EWD TO WRN ND BY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIS/GGW SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 F BASED ON A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. STILL...THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WRN AND NRN ND. THE STRONG INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW LAGGING W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ...NY/PA AREA... A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING SLOWLY EWD OVER NY/PA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/PIT REVEAL COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15 C AT 500 MB/ AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW...BUT THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA/NY. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 16:22:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 11:22:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507091633.j69GXbZW006496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091628 SWODY1 SPC AC 091626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS DHN MGR DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 55 SE MOT 25 SE DIK 65 NW REJ 15 SE MLS 45 N MLS 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ACY 20 NNW DCA 15 SSE LBE 15 NE PIT 25 WNW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 65 N SVC 25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 25 SE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 10 NNE RIW 25 ENE BPI 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 40 NW EKO 40 WSW OWY 55 SW S80 30 N 3DU 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 15 NE MTW 40 S OSH 20 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 40 S OJC 40 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SW ABI 30 S BWD 25 ENE ACT 25 N PRX 15 SSE FSM 65 ESE HRO 35 E JBR 50 NNE HSV 55 SSE TYS 40 ESE CLT 40 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 30 NW MKT 15 ENE BRD 25 NW BJI 45 WNW FAR 55 NE MBG 30 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT AND ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PRIMARILY FL.... ...FL REGION... HURRICANE DENNIS IS MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES S OF PNS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER OUTER RAIN BANDS CURRENTLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA AND WILL SPREAD NWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS DENNIS SHIFTS NWWD. LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE RAIN BANDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. REFERENCE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DENNIS. ...MT/ND AREA... A MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN ND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS WWD INTO ERN MT. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS SERN MT AND WRN ND AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT LATER TODAY FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DOWNDRAFTS MAY AID IN SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. IF STORMS DON'T DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY MAY TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THE FORCING. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...NY/PA AREA... A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -14 TO -16C. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...AND A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... THOUGH DYNAMICAL FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...PW/S IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF STORMS SUGGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF HAIL/WIND THREAT. ..IMY/GUYER.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 19:31:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 14:31:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507091941.j69Jft5p023640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091939 SWODY1 SPC AC 091938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB DHN MGR 35 NNE GNV 15 NW VRB 25 SSE MIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 50 SE MOT 30 SE DIK 60 NW REJ 15 SSE MLS 45 N MLS 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ACY 20 NNW DCA 15 SSE LBE 15 NE PIT 25 WNW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 65 N SVC 25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 30 WNW RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 10 NNE RIW 25 ENE BPI 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 40 NW EKO 45 NNW OWY 75 WSW 27U 20 NNW GTF 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 15 NE MTW 40 S OSH 20 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 40 S OJC 40 ESE P28 35 S GAG 45 NNW ABI 25 NNE BWD 25 NE ACT 25 N PRX 15 SSE FSM 60 S UNO 25 W HOP 50 NNE HSV 55 SSE TYS 40 ESE CLT 40 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 30 NW MKT 15 ENE BRD 25 NW BJI 45 WNW FAR 55 NE MBG 30 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL / PORTIONS OF SRN GA / SRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT / WRN ND... ...FL / SERN AL / SWRN GA... FAVORABLY STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS EXISTS ACROSS THE FL KEYS / THE WRN 2/3 OF THE FL PENINSULA ATTM. ENHANCED FLOW WILL SPREAD NWWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SRN AL / SWRN GA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DENNIS CONTINUES NWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF. THOUGH STRONGEST ONSHORE BANDING -- AND GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT -- EXISTS N OF TAMPA ATTM...LONGER-TERM THREAT EXISTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AS OTHER BANDS FORM / MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. AS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS NWD...EXPECT THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN OUTER BANDS TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SRN AL / SRN GA THROUGH 10/12Z. ...PARTS OF MT / WRN DAKOTAS... MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED FROM SWRN MT NEWD INTO NERN MT ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS ALONG / AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH -- ALL WITHIN REGION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...MODELS FORECAST RIDGING TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL MT. SOME INCREASE IN CUMULUS FIELD IS NOTED ACROSS FAR SWRN MT...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM W TO E WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE...A FEW STRONGER / SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR ERN MT / WRN ND...NEAR AND JUST W OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS / AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HEATING BENEATH MID-LEVEL LOW / COLD POOL. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NY / PA INTO THE NYC AREA...WHICH CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK...A COUPLE OF THE MORE POTENT STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL OR A LOCALLY STRONG GUST THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING BEFORE THUNDER THREAT WANES. ...HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO SWD ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN / OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO DRIFT SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS -- PARTICULARLY IF ANY ORGANIZED / SMALL-SCALE COLD POOLS COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CO / SRN WY -- SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED / PULSE IN NATURE. SOMEWHAT GREATER -- THOUGH STILL LIMITED -- SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP-LAYER VEERING / SHEAR IS INDICATED. THOUGH CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 00:33:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 19:33:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507100044.j6A0i5EB010208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100041 SWODY1 SPC AC 100040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 55 SE MOT 45 WSW BIS 40 S Y22 55 S Y22 15 ESE REJ 40 ESE GDV 10 ESE SDY 55 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB DHN MGR 25 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE RRT 35 NE FAR 25 WNW GRI 20 SSE GAG 50 NE ABI 55 E JCT 40 NE LRD 65 SSE LRD ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 25 WSW 4CR 25 ENE ALS 15 SSW 4FC 40 NW 4FC 40 SSE RWL 20 NNW RWL 10 E RIW 20 SW BPI 25 NE MLD 35 NW PIH 15 W 27U 25 SSE LWS 30 SW GEG 35 N 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE EWB BDL 30 NW RUT 35 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW GLS 50 SSW LFK 10 SW PRX 30 ESE MLC 25 SW UNO 30 SSW PAH 10 ESE TYS 10 NW CLT 25 WNW CRE 20 S CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND FL... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERATED ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN WITHIN HOT...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY HAS NOT ROOTED INTO THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN ND/NWRN SD PROBABLY GIVEN CINH IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOBS. UPSTREAM...SHORT BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE BECOME ALIGNED WITH STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AS ENHANCED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO CNTRL MT. ASIDE FROM ISOLD HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL MT TSTMS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CERTAIN FARTHER E. TSTMS MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK LEE-TROUGH/COLD FRONT NEAR THE MT/ND/CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND OVERNIGHT WITHIN AXIS OF INCREASING SLY LLJ. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK/SEVERE PROBS AS ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND FL... OFFICIAL TPC HRCN DENNIS TRACK CONTINUES A NWWD MOTION OFF THE FL W COAST OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WEAKLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME SPREADING NWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE ONSHORE...MINI-SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...FAR OUTER BAND OF STORMS MOVING NWWD THROUGH THE DEEP S MAY BE CAPABLE OF HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 05:37:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 00:37:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507100547.j6A5lrF6023056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100545 SWODY1 SPC AC 100543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 10 SE JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 15 NE ABY 10 SW VLD 15 WSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW INL 25 ESE FAR 40 NW HON 25 NNE CDR 35 SE 81V 55 NE 4BQ 50 N DIK 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 20 SSW AXN 30 WSW OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 20 SSE ABI 25 ESE SEP 40 ESE DAL 25 NW PRX 20 NW MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 30 NNW 4CR 45 W RTN 25 SSW COS 20 SW FCL 35 NW LAR 50 NNW RWL 25 W EVW 60 SSE BYI 40 N BOI 10 E LWS 20 S GEG 25 NNE EPH 45 WSW 4OM 55 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 25 NW LCI 10 NNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL-ERN GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP S... OFFICIAL NHC FCST OF HRCN DENNIS PROJECTS THE CENTER VCNTY MOBILE BAY LATE AFTN SUN...THEN INTO ERN MS BY 12Z MON. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE AS DENNIS TRANSLATES NWWD....WITH STRONGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LIKELY IN ERN MS...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL. LACK OF STRONGER WLYS IN THE MID-HIGH TROPOSPHERE MAY KEEP THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED MINI-SUPERCELLS LOW. FURTHERMORE...LACK OF ANY DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONES AND EXPANSIVE ENVELOPE OF DEEP MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS TRAVELLING WITH THE HRCN MAY MITIGATE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...THE ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO AS THE STRONGER RAINBANDS ROTATE ABOUT THE CENTER ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO ORE WILL GLANCE OFF THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...ULTIMATELY DEAMPLIFYING OVER ND AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUN NIGHT. WEAK FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA SWWD INTO CNTRL ND AND SRN MT THROUGH SUN AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST /DEW POINTS AOA 70F/ AND GIVEN STRONG HEATING...POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. INHIBITION MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERE COOLS SLIGHTLY ALONG PERIPHERY OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. THUS...TSTM INITIATION VCNTY THE FRONT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTN. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN MANITOBA FIRST...THEN EITHER BUILD SWD ALONG THE FRONT...OR DEVELOP SEPARATELY OVER ND. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER MT...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE EVENING FARTHER E. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE INITIAL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE GIVEN THAT THE ORE WAVE WILL BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MOISTEN UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN MT/NRN WY AS THE FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE IN ADVANCE OF THE ORE IMPULSE. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTN AND ISOLD STORMS MAY SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER SRN MT/NRN WY WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS THE H5 IMPULSE TRANSLATES NEWD AND LLJ INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUN. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN SD AND MUCH OF ND WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 12:39:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 07:39:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507101249.j6ACnikP019588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101247 SWODY1 SPC AC 101246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 N JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 40 NE MGR 45 WNW ORL 25 SSW FMY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RRT 15 SW FAR 20 E PIR 35 N CDR 81V 30 ENE 4BQ 25 NNW DIK 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 20 SSW AXN 30 WSW OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 20 SSE ABI 25 ESE SEP 40 ESE DAL 25 NW PRX 20 NW MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 30 NNW 4CR 45 W RTN 25 SSW COS 20 SW FCL 35 NW LAR 50 NNW RWL 25 W EVW 60 SSE BYI 40 N BOI 10 E LWS 20 S GEG 25 NNE EPH 45 WSW 4OM 55 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 25 NW LCI 10 NNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.... ...NE GULF COAST AREA... HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA FROM MOB TO PNS. AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SW GA/SRN AL. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE W COAST OF FL IN THE OUTER ERN BAND WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. THOUGH WINDS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE W COAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE BROKEN BAND OF DISCRETE STORMS AND 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 300 M2/S2. ...NRN PLAINS AREA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED EWD INTO CENTRAL ND AND NW SD. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONG CAP OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. EXPECT THE CAP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL LAG WEST OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 16:26:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 11:26:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507101637.j6AGbJSZ019541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101629 SWODY1 SPC AC 101628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT 40 N JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 40 NE MGR 45 WNW ORL 25 SSW FMY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W RRT GFK PIR CDR 55 S 81V 4BQ 25 NNW DIK 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25 W AXN 30 WSW OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 15 S ABI 25 ESE SEP 35 ESE DAL 20 WNW PRX MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB 25 NE PBG ...CONT... 30 S DMN 10 NNE TCS 35 NNW ONM 10 SSW SAF 35 SE ALS 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 15 ESE RKS 25 W EVW 25 S BYI 20 SW SUN 45 NNE BOI 25 SE BKE 25 WNW BKE 25 ESE PDT 25 ENE ALW 25 W PUW 25 WNW GEG 10 S 4OM 75 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PNS. LOCAL VAD PROFILER WINDS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN GA...MUCH OF AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TODAY DURING THE LANDFALL PHASE OF THE SYSTEM. SO FAR...DISCRETE CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN RARE EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF POTENTIALLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF DENNIS...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES LATER TODAY. THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MT/NORTHWEST WY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT. HOWEVER...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN POST-FRONTAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD/SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL/ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE...CENTRAL SD...AND EASTERN ND. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HI PLAINS... HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOCALLY REACHED...RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. ..HART/GUYER.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 19:56:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 14:56:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507102006.j6AK6tro015866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102003 SWODY1 SPC AC 102002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT JAN 30 SSW MEM 40 NNE TUP 15 NW GAD 20 NNE LGC 40 NNE MGR 40 NNW GNV 15 SSE SRQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RRT 15 N GFK 10 SE PIR CDR 55 S 81V 4BQ 50 WSW P24 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 10 NNE TCS 35 NNW ONM 10 SSW SAF 35 SE ALS 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 15 ESE RKS 25 W EVW 25 S BYI 20 SW SUN 45 NNE BOI 25 SE BKE 25 WNW BKE 25 ESE PDT 25 ENE ALW 25 W PUW 25 WNW GEG 10 S 4OM 75 NW 4OM ...CONT... INL 25 W AXN 25 ESE HLC 65 SW GAG 25 SSE CDS 55 SW SPS 20 SE SPS 15 NNW FSI 20 SSW END 10 W EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB 25 NE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS IS MAKING LANDFALL ATTM AT PENSACOLA BAY IN THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL / SRN GA HAVE SHOWN ROTATION AT TIMES...WITH AREA VWPS SHOWING LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION / TORNADOES. SOME HINTS OF DRIER AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SW ARE APPARENT ATTM. AS A RESULT...SOME LOCAL STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFTS -- COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GREATEST SHORT-TERM THREAT WOULD THUS APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE / WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN FL PENINSULA INTO SRN GA / SERN AL. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NNWWD...REACHING NERN MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TORNADO THREAT TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NWS ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND AL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE NRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EWD INTO CENTRAL ND ATTM...WITH MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INDICATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO IMMEDIATELY ALONG -- AND PERHAPS MORE LIKELY BEHIND -- COLD FRONT...WHERE PARCELS MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO REACH AN LFC. OVERNIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. ASSUMING STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- THOUGH NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG -- SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS TO EVOLVE. THOUGH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR STORM...GREATER THREAT MAY BE FOR HAIL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR WWD AS CENTRAL MT...AS STORMS INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD ENEWD WITH TIME. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN CO SWD INTO NM / W TX...WITHIN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG LEE TROUGH. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN GENERAL DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK FORCING...A SMALL STORM CLUSTER OR TWO COULD EVOLVE GIVEN DRY AIR / POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS. ..GOSS.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 00:23:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 19:23:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507110034.j6B0YFKP020752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110031 SWODY1 SPC AC 110029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE MOB 40 ESE MEI 15 ENE CBM 35 SSE MSL 10 E GAD 40 WNW MCN 35 NE MGR 10 W CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RRT 25 NNW GFK 40 SSE JMS 35 SSW ABR 20 SSE VTN 35 NNW LBF 40 N IML 30 W IML 25 NNE AKO 30 ENE CYS 40 SSE DGW 30 WNW DGW 50 NNE CPR 81V 15 WNW RAP 50 SE Y22 35 ESE P24 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 40 SW ROW 40 NE 4CR 30 NNE LVS 40 SW PUB 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 40 NE RKS 30 NW BPI 15 WSW IDA 40 SSW 27U 60 ENE S80 30 SE S06 55 WNW CTB ...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB 25 NE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRP 10 S AUS 45 ENE OKC 10 SE EMP 15 ENE MKC JEF 25 SSE CGI 20 W BWG 15 S LOZ 40 WSW GSO 40 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 50 NE ATY 25 S EAR 50 SW GAG 45 NE SJT 40 NW HDO 30 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...ERN GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP S... TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NW TOWARD NERN MS OVERNIGHT. EVENING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES AND GIVEN ENVELOPE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TRAVELING WITH THE SYSTEM...BUOYANCY HAS BEEN MINIMAL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO/ MINI-SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED... BUT NON-ZERO. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG AND A TORNADO/ CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR WITH THE RAINBANDS AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FL PNHDL...CNTRL/SRN GA...AND MUCH OF AL OVERNIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS... MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1004 MB LOW OVER NCNTRL SD WITH A TRAILING LEE-TROUGH SWWD TO THE NEB PNHDL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WINNIPEG THROUGH CNTRL ND...THEN INTO NRN WY. STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS CAP IS ERASED. APPROACH OF STRONG H5 IMPULSE FROM WY AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY AID IN INCREASING STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/ LEE-TROUGH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG/ WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT...GIVEN THE LARGELY PARALLEL COMPONENT OF THE 2-6KM SHEAR WITH RESPECT TO THE BOUNDARIES...TSTMS SHOULD GENERALLY EVOLVE INTO LINES QUICKLY. EWD MOTION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WITH SEVERE THREATS /DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/ REMAINING CONFINED TO CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF ND...CNTRL SD AND WRN NEB THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER W...TSTMS BENEATH THE WY IMPULSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS WY AND SERN MT TOWARD THE WRN DA'S THIS EVENING. STRONGER INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO ERN WY INTO WRN SD PER 00Z RAOBS...WITH MUCH LESS INSTABILITY OVER WY AND WRN ND. THUS...TSTMS MAY TEND TO INTENSIFY NEAR/N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN WY TOWARD KRAP WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACROSS SERN MT...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL NM BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES OF -10C HAVE CONGEALED INTO CLUSTERS ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. CLOVIS VWP SUGGESTS A 25 KT-6KM FLOW ATOP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDUCIVE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET. ..RACY.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 05:27:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 00:27:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507110537.j6B5btT6009037@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110536 SWODY1 SPC AC 110534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 0A8 20 WSW TUP 30 ESE JBR 30 E POF 20 SE MDH 30 WSW OWB 10 WNW BWG 20 WNW CSV 20 SSE CHA 15 ESE ANB 25 N MGM 20 WNW SEM 35 WSW 0A8. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LIC BFF 30 ESE CDR 20 SE MHN 20 NE MCK 60 N GCK 25 SSE EHA 30 SSW AMA 20 W LBB 30 NE HOB 40 SE ROW 35 NNE ROW 45 WSW CAO 25 S LHX 25 N LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 30 SW 4CR 55 WSW RTN 50 S 4FC 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 S Y22 10 SW BIS 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 45 ESE SUX 10 E RSL 25 NNW GAG 45 S CDS 40 WNW ABI 40 SW ABI 10 SE BWD SEP 15 NNW FTW 50 SW TUL 25 NE BVO 40 SSE OJC 30 NNW UIN 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP S...MID MS AND TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...DEEP S/MID MS VLY/TN VLY... REMNANTS OF DENNIS ARE PROGD TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER THE MID MS/LWR TN VLYS MONDAY...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND BUOYANCY SHOULD BE GREATER THAN DURING LANDFALL. THUS...TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS MON AFTN WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES TO THE E AND SE OF THE SURFACE LOW. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AL NWWD INTO MID-WRN TN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THAT REGION SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. TORNADO PROBABILITIES...WHICH ARE DRIVING THE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...REFLECT THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY OF THE REMNANT LOW. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE EARLY TODAY WITH AT LEAST A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH MON AFTN. ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /50S DEW POINTS/ AND HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH MINUS 8-10C H5 TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS CINH IS ERODED FROM SWRN SD INTO WRN NEB SWD TO ERN NM ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/TERRAIN. AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH EXPANDS...FLOW ABOVE THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TURN MORE N/NWLY AND INCREASE. MAGNITUDE OF BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER...A HIGHER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS SHOULD EXIST AND...THUS...INTRODUCTION OF THE SLGT RISK. INITIAL CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER AS STORMS PROPAGATE S/SEWD INTO WRN NEB...WRN KS...TX/OK PNHDLS AND ERN NM DURING THE EVENING. ...UPPER MS/MO RVR VLYS... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND MIGRATE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY MON EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE GIVEN SLACKENING FLOW ALOFT OVER ALL OF THE UPPER MS/MO RVR VLYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO MN...SERN SD...NEB IN WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE. LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME CINH DURING THE AFTN...PRIMARILY FROM SERN SD INTO MN. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ANY STORM THAT FORMS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE MULTICELL SPECTRUM. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT JET OVER NERN QUE ATTM WILL DIG SWD AND CROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES AOB -12C. THUS...BANDS OF FAST MOVING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON AFTN...LIKELY FAVORING THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM NH/ERN MA EWD. FAST UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS TO POSSIBLY BOW PRODUCING ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 12:42:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 07:42:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507111253.j6BCrMWu027373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111251 SWODY1 SPC AC 111248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAD 25 ESE MKL 40 NNE MKL 45 SE PAH 10 N HOP 25 SW BWG 10 WSW CSV 65 ESE CHA 30 WSW AHN 25 W MCN 15 E AUO 30 WNW LGC GAD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W AKO 30 SSE BFF 25 ESE AIA 20 S MHN 30 S LBF 50 SSE GLD 25 SSE EHA 40 SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 45 WSW CAO 25 S LHX 30 W AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 30 SW 4CR 55 WSW RTN 50 S 4FC 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 S Y22 10 SW BIS 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 45 ESE SUX 10 E RSL 25 NNW GAG 45 S CDS 40 WNW ABI 40 SW ABI 10 SE BWD SEP 15 NNW FTW 50 SW TUL 25 NE BVO 40 SSE OJC 30 NNW UIN 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.... ...TN VALLEY AREA TODAY... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM NRN MS TO THE MO BOOTHEEL/SRN IL BY LATE TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED NEAR THE WARM CORE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...WHILE SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED E/SE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER /ALONG THE ERN CONFLUENCE BAND/ WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND SURFACE HEATING GREATER. THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...50 KT SLY/SELY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES IN THE OUTER ERN BANDS TODAY. ...PLAINS AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT... ON THE LARGER SCALE...HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT/ND LIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...AND A CLOSED HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE MT/ND MID LEVEL TROUGH...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB/THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE AND A RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER WRN MN/ERN SD. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FATHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP BENEATH ROUGHLY 25 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO 1000-2000 J/KG AND WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SW NEB ACROSS ERN CO. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE IF CONVECTION CAN EVOLVE INTO A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS THIS EVENING. ...NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING... A BELT OF LOW-MID 60 DEWPOINTS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO VT/NH/ME WILL SAG SWD TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX ROTATES SSEWD FROM ERN QUEBEC...AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE 50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THIS AREA AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...A FEW SWD MOVING STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OR BOWING SEGMENTS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT ANY SEVERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 16:31:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 11:31:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507111642.j6BGgUap014576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111639 SWODY1 SPC AC 111638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 25 NE FCL BFF MHN LBF 40 SSE GLD EHA 40 SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 55 SSE RTN 10 S TAD DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CHA BNA BWG 50 WSW LOZ TYS AVL 45 WNW CAE 50 NE MCN LGC 30 NW LGC 40 W CHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR ...CONT... 35 NE IWD 45 ENE OMA 20 NE SLN 40 NE GAG 35 SE CDS 40 NNE ABI 20 WNW MWL 40 NNW FTW 25 SSE OKC 45 WSW CNU 25 WNW OJC 30 ENE IRK 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 30 NW ALM 40 N SAF 55 W COS 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 N PHP 30 SSE BIS 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...AL/GA/TN/SC/NC... REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DENNIS IS NOW ESE OF MEM...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS NEAR THE CENTER IS GREATLY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...WITH CLOUD CHARACTER AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT LITTLE DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF BROKEN CLOUDS EXISTS FROM EASTERN AL ACROSS GA/SC INTO EASTERN TN. THIS IS BENEATH LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OVER 300 J/KG/. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CSG...ATL... CHA...CSV. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE SHEAR. THREAT WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE AFTER DARK DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY OVER EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST NM...TRANSPORTING RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES...DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. DENVER CYCLONE MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP INTO EASTERN CO...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST KS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST NM. ...NORTHEAST STATES... CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 19:59:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 14:59:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507112009.j6BK9tFf023624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112007 SWODY1 SPC AC 112005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 25 NE FCL BFF MHN LBF 40 SSE GLD EHA 40 SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 55 SSE RTN 10 S TAD DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CHA BNA BWG 50 WSW LOZ TYS AVL 45 WNW CAE 70 N AYS 40 SE CSG 30 NW LGC 40 W CHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ELO 45 W HIB 55 E FAR 30 NE FAR 20 ENE GFK 55 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 NW ALM 40 N SAF 55 W COS 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 45 NW PIR 20 SW JMS 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 35 NE IWD 45 ENE OMA 20 NE SLN 40 NE GAG 35 SE CDS 40 NNE ABI 20 WNW MWL 40 NNW FTW 25 SSE OKC 45 WSW CNU 25 WNW OJC 30 ENE IRK 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NRN MN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HRCN DENNIS IS NEAR MKL /SWRN TN/. IMPRESSIVE BAND OF TROPICAL CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA SWD INTO WEST CENTRAL FL. MEANWHILE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN MN AS MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ...ERN TN VALLEY INTO GA... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE 30-40 KT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF DENNIS AND WLY 30-35 KT FLOW INDICATING MINIMAL SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. AIR MASS OVER THE AREAS WHERE THERE ARE FEEDER BANDS AT THIS TIME IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME AS WELL AS SOME DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN AREA OF MAXIMUM HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ME INTO VT/NH. INTERESTING HOW STORMS ARE MOVING SWD ON BACKSIDE OF LOW LOCATED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHERE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG. SERN AREAS OF ME HAVE COOLED FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY CREATING A BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID/UPR 80S WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 50S. THUS...STORMS CAN PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. ...NWRN/N CENTRAL MN... SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME SWRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS NWRN MN TO A LOW ALONG THE E CENTRAL ND/MN BORDER AT 18Z. AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE FROM NWRN/N CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO ERN SD WHERE MLCAPE HAVE REACHED AROUND 3500 J/KG. THUS...HAVE ADDED SLGT RISK AREA HERE WHERE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE AROUND 8.5C/KM INDICATING THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO WHERE THERE IS ALSO 10-15 KT OF UPSLOPE FLOW MOSTLY IN E CENTRAL AND SERN CO. STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NERN NM...AND WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER SERN CO INTO E CENTRAL CO THRU EARLY TONIGHT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE 8.5 TO 9C/KM...THUS WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS THRU EARLY TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 00:36:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 19:36:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507120046.j6C0knut007754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120044 SWODY1 SPC AC 120042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SNY 20 E IML 55 S GLD 40 NW EHA 40 ENE TAD 15 S PUB 15 SSW DEN FCL 45 SSW BFF 40 ENE SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 NW ALM 40 N SAF 55 W COS 10 S LAR 55 SE DGW 45 NW CDR 35 WSW PIR 15 WNW ATY 25 ESE RRT ...CONT... 70 NW CMX 35 WNW EAU 30 N MCW 40 ENE OMA 25 WNW SLN 20 SW P28 25 ENE CSM 25 SE FSI 35 ESE MLC 40 S PBF 45 SW CBM 45 ENE MEI 10 SW LUL 15 SE ESF 15 N CLL 25 NNE SAT 25 W LRD ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 25 SSE CSG 30 SE RMG 30 S CSV 25 ESE OWB 30 NNW EVV 15 WSW HUF 15 ENE IND 35 SE LUK 10 NNW 5I3 15 SE PSK 10 WSW RDU 30 SW ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... A FEW TSTMS MANAGED TO FORM ALONG THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SWRN SD...NWRN NEB AND ERN CO THIS AFTN. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY/FOCUS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF ERN CO CELLS APPEAR TO BE ROTATING AMIDST 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AT RANDOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS/ INCREASING UPSLOPE FRONT RANGE FLOW CONTINUE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER ERN CO. TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER... BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z. ...SRN APPALACHIAN AREA... REMNANTS OF DENNIS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NWD VCNTY THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RVRS THIS EVENING. THERMAL BUOYANCY REMAINS LOW NEAR THE CORE...WITH MLCAPE AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG WELL SE OF THE REMNANT LOW ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN AREA. HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT TSTMS ALONG LOCAL BANDS OF CONVERGENCE. THESE BANDS APPEAR LARGELY DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING. ...MN... AXIS OF MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG WAS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NCNTRL-SWRN MN THIS AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WAS AOB 30 KTS...MAINTAINING GENERALLY MULTICELL STRUCTURE STORMS WITH PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT IMPROVE. AS SUCH...ASIDE FROM ISOLD SEVERE THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SWWD THROUGH MAINE IN ITS WAKE. GIVEN SUNSET AND WANING INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 05:24:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 00:24:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507120535.j6C5ZDSH027375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120532 SWODY1 SPC AC 120531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 35 NNW SAD 40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 25 S GCC 50 ENE 81V 45 S PHP 15 NE ANW 50 W YKN 45 SSE FAR 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 35 NW BML 15 E LCI ISP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DEEP S/CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS/OH VLY... DENNIS REMNANTS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE UP THE OH VLY TUE. WIND FIELDS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE A BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WRAPPING FROM THE DEEP S...THEN CYCLONICALLY ABOUT THE REMNANT LOW INTO THE OH VLY. GIVEN INFLUX OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...A LARGE PART OF THE SRN STATES NWD INTO THE OH VLY WILL BE UNSTABLE...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOCUSING ANY GIVEN AREA FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED SEVERE THREATS. ATTM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR WELL S-E OF THE LOW CENTER/CLOUDS...NAMELY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-OH VLY SWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE DEEP S. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP FROM MS TO THE CAROLINAS COULD TEND TO BOW IN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW OF 20-30 KTS. THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER N...LOW-LEVEL TURNING SHOULD BE STRONGER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO TSTM THREAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TUE. UPPER HIGH SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SWRN STATES WITH N-NELY H5 FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ON MONDAY...AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW/MOISTURE BOUNDARIES MOVING WWD TO THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TUE ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO TUE AFTN/EVE TSTM THREAT. PRIND THAT AT LEAST ISOLD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CO AND NM. H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN ON MONDAY...AROUND 25 KTS...BUT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY MULTICELLULAR...WITH PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS...SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 12:46:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 07:46:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507121256.j6CCudLP015124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121253 SWODY1 SPC AC 121251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 15 E LCI ISP ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 35 NNW SAD 40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 25 S GCC 50 ENE 81V 45 S PHP 15 NE ANW 50 W YKN 45 SSE FAR 35 ESE RRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS OVER CANADA. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS HAVE ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE ANALYSES REVEAL THAT THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES WELL S AND E OF THE REMNANT WARM CORE LOW. A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE 25-35 KT LOW-MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...AS WELL AS NEAR AND E OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 16:21:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 11:21:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507121632.j6CGWOYu021749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121630 SWODY1 SPC AC 121628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 65 WNW SAD 40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 15 SW GCC 35 SSW REJ 45 S PHP 15 SW ANW 50 NNE BUB 45 SSW FAR 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 15 SW RUT ISP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AL/GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... REMNANT LOW OF DENNIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION FROM MS/AL INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING TODAY...WHICH ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S...WILL PROVIDE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG/. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES DUE TO ANTICIPATED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF NY/NJ/PA AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHS ROTATE SOUTHWARD INTO REGION. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KNOTS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER FORCING EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 19:55:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 14:55:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507122006.j6CK6LXd031049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122004 SWODY1 SPC AC 122002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU SAD FMN CAG GCC 35 SSW REJ PHP ANW MHE 45 SSW FAR 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 30 N PBG EEN ISP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ON CONUS SCALE...UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY GREAT BASIN HIGH...ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEWD TOWARD S-CENTRAL CANADA...AND INLAND REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS. LATTER IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE -- CENTERED ATTM OVER SRN IL. CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ERRATICALLY ACROSS SRN IL/SRN INDIANA/NWRN KY REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS MUCH OF DIXIE TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW BELT...OVER THESE AREAS -- SRN WV/EXTREME WRN VA...ERN KY/ERN TN TO NRN AL...SWRN AR...NRN KS. EXPECT THESE TROUGHS TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CYCLONICALLY AROUND BROADER VORTEX. ...ERN NY... ISOLATED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING INVOF SFC TROUGH. ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY FORCED AND OCCURRING IN MERIDIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT TO LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... MULTICELL TSTMS -- WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS -- ARE EXPECTED IN A BROAD ARC AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS -- AIDED BY STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES GENERALLY IN 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL MESOBETA SCALE MODES OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITHIN THIS ARC -- NOTABLE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. IN NEAR TERM..REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1733 OVER PORTIONS KS/OK...AND 1734 ACROSS PORTIONS GA/AL/MS. ALTHOUGH TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST IN THIS ARC THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...EXPECT BOTH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK ONCE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS ERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...FROM BLACK HILLS SWD. INTENSE SFC HEATING AND MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS CREATING DEEP/LOW-RH SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUITABLE FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT WITH WEAK ABSOLUTE FLOWS AT MOST LEVELS LIMITING BOTH BULK SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION OF ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 05:27:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 00:27:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507130538.j6D5cQjI004429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130536 SWODY1 SPC AC 130535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GGW 55 SSW GGW 60 ESE LWT 10 N LVM 40 NNE BZN GTF 60 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 50 ESE PHX 30 WSW INW 55 N INW 70 SSW 4BL 25 SE 4BL 45 W EGE 25 WNW 4FC 35 S LAR 45 SW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 25 ESE COD 35 NW LND 15 SSE BPI 50 NNW VEL 15 SE PUC 25 NW 4HV 40 WSW 4HV 25 E BCE 10 SW BCE 25 WNW BCE 40 ENE MLF 40 S SLC OGD 25 SSE MLD 25 WSW PIH 35 E BOI 65 E BKE S80 20 SE S06 25 NW 3TH 20 NW GEG 25 N EAT 50 NE SEA 20 E BLI ...CONT... 55 N DVL 40 ESE P24 25 ESE REJ 25 NW CDR 35 SSE AIA 30 NW MCK 20 NW HLC 20 SSW CNK 15 SW BIE 35 SSE SUX 20 S MKT 65 N EAU 35 S CMX ...CONT... 20 S HUL BGR 20 NNE PWM 15 SE EEN 20 NNE BDR 25 E ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MT... ...MT... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WED AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESPOND AND LIKELY ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS WWD INTO CNTRL MT...MAINTAINING THE LOW-MID 50S DEW POINTS ALREADY OBSERVED. THE BACKED NATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH STRENGTHENING SWLY H5 FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM OVER SWRN MT BY EARLY AFTN AND STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE NEWD TOWARD CNTRL MT. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS COULD BEGIN TO ROOT INTO A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF CNTRL MT LATE IN THE AFTN/EVE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. BY THEN...STORM STRUCTURE MAY EVOLVE INTO BOWS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREATS. FARTHER E...PROSPECTS FOR TSTM INITIATION APPEAR LOWER GIVEN STRONGER CAP OVER SCNTRL/SERN MT. BUT...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP EWD FROM CNTRL MT INTO NERN/ECNTRL MT AND PERHAPS NWRN ND AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD AND A 40 KT SLY LLJ DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ...SERN STATES... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES ROTATING AROUND THE OH VLY LOW. DESPITE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...STRONG HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG OVER A RATHER LARGE AREA OF THE SE ON WED. MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE WITHIN A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED H85-H5 WLY FLOW FROM PARTS OF MS EWD INTO AL...GA AND PERHAPS THE CAROLINAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREATS. FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVE. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 12:27:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 07:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507131237.j6DCbiSE016601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131235 SWODY1 SPC AC 131233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 10 S SDY 45 WNW MLS 20 NNE BIL 10 N LVM 35 N BZN 10 S GTF 60 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 50 ESE PHX 30 WSW INW 55 N INW 70 SSW 4BL 25 SE 4BL 50 W EGE 35 NNE EGE 35 S LAR 45 SW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 20 NNW RIW 45 ESE BPI 35 SW RKS 15 SE PUC 25 NW 4HV 40 WSW 4HV 25 E BCE 10 SW BCE 25 WNW BCE 40 ENE MLF 40 S SLC OGD 25 SSE MLD 25 WSW PIH 35 E BOI 65 E BKE S80 20 SE S06 25 NW 3TH 20 NW GEG 25 N EAT 50 NE SEA 20 E BLI ...CONT... 55 N DVL 40 ESE P24 25 ESE REJ 25 NW CDR 35 SSE AIA 30 NW MCK 20 NW HLC 20 SSW CNK 15 SW BIE 35 SSE SUX 20 S MKT 65 N EAU 35 S CMX ...CONT... 20 S HUL BGR 20 NNE PWM 15 SE EEN 20 NW GON 30 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT.... ...MT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TO WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...AND CENTRAL/ERN MT TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A COLD FRONT AND LEE CYCLONE WILL ALSO MOVE EWD ACROSS MT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WHILE A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME IS OVERSPREADING MT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY W OF THE FRONT WHERE THE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST. MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXED LAYERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS BOW ECHOES. ...INTERIOR GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON... A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FROM E TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND NWD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO PA/WRN NY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 16:08:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 11:08:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507131619.j6DGJJwj022900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131610 SWODY1 SPC AC 131609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS BIL 30 N LVM 30 E HLN GTF 60 NW HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK RUT GFL UCA 20 S ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 25 E MBG 20 SE PHP 30 S MHN 45 SW HLC 20 S RSL 10 SE YKN 15 E DLH ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW 75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE U24 OGD 40 S TWF 20 NE OWY 65 E BKE 50 NNE S80 40 ESE GEG 20 NW GEG 50 NE SEA 20 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MVN 25 ENE CKV 45 NNW CSV 20 NE LOZ 15 NW HTS 35 NNE DAY 15 NNW LAF 45 ENE MVN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NRN NY/VT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN MT AND FAR NWRN ND... ...NY/VT AREA... ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS MOVING SEWD FROM SERN QUEBEC INTO NRN NY THIS MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED MUCAPES 1000 TO 1500 J/KG FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN NY...DUE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT/TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH NY. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...20-25 KT...VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY/VT WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. STRONGER STORMS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL EARLY/MID EVENING...THEN WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. ...MT AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ACROSS MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN MT...WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MT AND INTO NRN ND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH NEARS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ACROSS ERN MT... SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF BOW ECHOES. ...TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SERN INDIANA SWWD ACROSS SRN AR INTO NRN TX. NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO GA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES IN AREA OF WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK OVER THIS AREA...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS A SEVERE HAILSTONE OR TWO. ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 19:57:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 14:57:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507132007.j6DK7hjF012077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132004 SWODY1 SPC AC 132003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS 50 SSE BIL 15 NNE MQM 45 WSW BTM 20 E GTF 55 NE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK BTV 20 S SLK 35 ESE ART 20 S ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW 75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE U24 OGD 40 S TWF 20 NE OWY 65 E BKE 50 NNE S80 40 ESE GEG 20 NW GEG 30 WSW 63S 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 ESE REJ 15 ENE CDR 35 WNW IML 45 SW HLC 20 S RSL 20 NNE FRM 45 NNE IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MVN 45 ENE DYR 45 NNW CSV 20 NE LOZ 40 WSW HTS 40 N DAY 25 NW HUF 20 WSW MVN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NERN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY QUASISTATIONARY/HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN ACROSS NRN PLAINS...AND BY BROAD DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY OVER LOWER OH VALLEY. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC NW AND SRN BC -- IS FCST TO REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL-SWRN SASK INTO NWRN MT -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MOST OF MT TONIGHT AND INTO NWRN ND. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONTAL ZONE OVER SWRN QUE AND SRN ONT WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD NRN UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ...NERN NY...NEW ENGLAND... UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS QUE AND ONT INDICATED ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER PLUME WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION -- SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE BASED ON WARNING INFO FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA -- ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN QUE. EXPECT ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES TO SHIFT SEWD/SWD INTO OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT...CONCURRENT WITH INCREASE IN 850 MB FLOW TO 20-30 KT SWLYS. STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SUPPRESSED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TIME BEGIN ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE CANADIAN ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO MCS AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR BORDER TONIGHT...CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED THERE..WITH MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FARTHER S. ...MT... SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL MT AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AMIDST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AS EVIDENT IN VWP FROM BIL AREA. HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1741 AND 1742 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN OVERALL EWD SHIFT. AFTER ABOUT 14/03Z...DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING NWRN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF 35-45 KT LLJ...WHICH IN TURN WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND MOIST/WARM ADVECTION TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL MCS OVER SOME OF ERN MT AND WRN ND. ...S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS...N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 FOR NOWCAST INFO OVER ERN NC. MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SFC-BASED DIABATIC HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS BROAD SWATH FROM PA THROUGH ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO CENTRAL TX. DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WEAKNESSES IN BOTH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 00:50:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 19:50:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507140102.j6E12SYl030810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140100 SWODY1 SPC AC 140059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS 50 SSE BIL 15 NNE MQM DLN 40 WNW LWT 70 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW 75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE U24 OGD 35 S BYI 30 W SUN 45 WNW 27U 20 NW 3DU 10 WSW FCA 50 NNE FCA ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 15 S REJ 40 NNE CDR 30 SSE SNY 55 N GCK 15 NE P28 35 NW LIT 25 WSW UOX 40 ESE CHA 35 NE HKY 45 SE PKB 30 WSW MFD 10 WSW IND 20 SW DNV 15 ESE CGX 25 SSE LNR 20 NNW VOK 20 E AUW 35 SSW OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND NERN MT THROUGH NWRN ND... ...MT THROUGH NWRN ND... EARLY THIS EVENING HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE FROM CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL MT. DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40+ F WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS SPREAD NEWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM NERN MT INTO NWRN ND AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SWLY EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40 TO 50 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. GLASGOW 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO PERSIST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT AND INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE FROM ERN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN ND. ...NRN NY AND VT... STORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO EXTREME NRN NY NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 05:47:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 00:47:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507140559.j6E5wxWn017251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140556 SWODY1 SPC AC 140555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ELO 35 NE AXN 15 ENE ATY 20 W HON 30 NW PIR 40 E Y22 70 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 25 E LCI 20 NE POU 10 WNW MSV 15 ENE ITH 30 NNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NW CMX 25 SW OTG 40 SW YKN 30 SE BBW 20 NW GLD 10 S LAA 35 SW LBL 30 S LBL 40 NW P28 15 ESE OMA 10 ESE RST 20 WSW CWA 25 NNE MBL 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 80 S GBN 25 SE PHX 10 WNW PRC 40 NE IGM 15 SSW CDC MLF 50 NNW MLF 55 ENE ELY 55 SE EKO 40 S BAM WMC 40 SW OWY 40 ESE OWY 45 N ENV 45 W OGD 10 N OGD 40 N EVW 25 WSW COD 30 SE BIL 15 NNW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 25 SSE SDY 60 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND A WEAK BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH MT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH ND ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WHILE A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NERN STATES. ...NERN STATES... POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY DELAY SURFACE HEATING UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ONCE SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NE OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. A WEAK CAP AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NY NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS FEW SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA AND ND. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. PRIMARY FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NWD INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY. THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAP SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE CAP. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION. POTENTIAL FOR LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...SRN STATES.... POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE SERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 12:21:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 07:21:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507141233.j6ECXhdF014795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141230 SWODY1 SPC AC 141229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUL 30 NE LCI 20 NW EEN ALB 10 WSW UCA 30 NNW SYR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 60 W AXN 35 E PIR 30 NNE PHP 65 SSE Y22 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NW CMX 25 SW OTG 40 SW YKN 30 SE BBW 20 NW GLD 10 S LAA 35 SW LBL 30 S LBL 40 NW P28 15 ESE OMA 10 ESE RST 20 WSW CWA 25 NNE MBL 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 80 S GBN 25 SE PHX 10 WNW PRC 40 NE IGM 15 SSW CDC MLF 50 NNW MLF ELY 60 ESE U31 25 NNW U31 15 SSW WMC 50 NNE BAM 45 NNE EKO 30 NNE ENV 30 W OGD 15 ENE OGD 30 S RKS 60 E JAC 40 N WRL 10 W 4BQ 35 NE MLS 25 ESE OLF 65 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL SD/ERN ND/NW MN.... ...UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND THIS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAINFALL AND MOIST PROFILES WILL TEND TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. ...NRN PLAINS AREA... OUTFLOW WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL ND AND NW SD...WELL E OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW ND AND ERN MT. THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY MIDDAY ACROSS ND AS A WEAK LEAD SPEED MAX EJECTS ENEWD AND AWAY FROM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND AND CENTRAL SD AS DAYTIME HEATING AND ASCENT REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM MT. MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC/SE/GULF STATES TODAY... AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS OVER KY...WSWWD TO A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER OVER OK/NW TX. LARGELY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN A BROAD BAND NEAR AND E/SE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FROM TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND NWD ACROSS THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA AND THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 16:23:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 11:23:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507141635.j6EGZXo7028071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141633 SWODY1 SPC AC 141632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUL 25 WSW PWM 15 W ORH 40 SW ALB 10 WSW UCA 30 NNW SYR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 60 W AXN 35 E PIR 30 NNE PHP 65 SSE Y22 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 65 SW PRC 45 N IGM 35 SW P38 30 NW DRA 30 S BIH 40 WSW BIH 50 WNW TVL 30 SSW SVE 45 NNE EKO 30 NNE ENV 40 ENE EVW 50 S COD 50 ENE 4BQ 60 NNW MOT ...CONT... 30 NW MQT 40 N SUX 20 WSW LHX 35 SW CAO 45 S DHT 25 WNW CSM END 25 SW TOP 40 SSW MBL 20 WNW APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NERN NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN.... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING PATTERN ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE U.S WITH LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED ON THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS HAS FORCED THE MAIN STORM TRACK ALONG THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER AND SRN QUEBEC INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALSO LEFT A LARGE ELONGATED TROUGH /MUCH OF THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS/ FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD THRU TX. ...NERN NY STATE INTO ME... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC INTO THE NERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIE ALONG WRN SECTIONS INTO NERN NY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING JUST S OF E ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NY...HOWEVER WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG TO SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LAPSE RATES COULD BE AROUND 8C/KM. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE AFTER MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NERN NY STATE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ME. ...PARTS OF THE ERN NRN PLAINS INTO NWRN MN... LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL ND SWWD ACROSS NWRN SD INTO CENTRAL WY. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SOME WITH LIMITED HEATING TODAY INHIBITED SLIGHTLY BY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ND AT THIS TIME. SBCAPE EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN MN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 8C/KM INDICATING THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NERN ND/NWRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN MANITOBA RAISES DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO NEAR 50 KT ACROSS THE AREA. ...GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND OH/TN VALLEYS... TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM DENNIS REMAINS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES TROPICAL REGIME. ..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 05:05:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 00:05:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507150516.j6F5Gs8u011366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150515 SWODY1 SPC AC 150513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DGW 20 NNW 81V 25 WNW REJ 60 ESE REJ 45 WNW VTN 45 E SNY AKO 20 NNW DEN 40 SE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW RWL 35 WNW WRL 35 WSW COD 50 NNE BPI 50 ENE EVW 35 E VEL CAG 45 NE CAG 20 NNW RWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PVW 55 W CSM 15 NNE BVO 55 NNE JLN 20 ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NW PVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S GBN 30 SSE PHX 15 NNW PHX 45 WNW PHX 75 SE EED 30 ESE EED 30 S LAS 40 NNW DRA 55 SSW TPH 45 N NID 15 SSW NID 30 N RAL 15 NNW RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 N OXR 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 45 N BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 SE INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CO THROUGH WY AND WRN SD AND NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. AND A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE EAST. STRONGER BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN NEAR U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL CONTINUE ENEWD WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT FRIDAY NIGHT. NRN PART OF COLD FRONT NOW FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD INTO CNTRL MN. SWRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL AND MAY BEGIN MOVING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH WRN SD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. ...WRN SD...ERN WY...NERN CO AND WRN NEB... ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF AND S OF SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN CO NWD THROUGH ERN WY AND WRN SD. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL FAVOR BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S PERSISTING OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD AS SURFACE HEATING ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD AND MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY 20 TO 25 KT AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN SD... DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST CONVERGENCE...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM MN SWWD THROUGH SD AS SURFACE HEATING PROMOTES DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING CAP. WITH THE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS REMAINING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...CNTRL MT... INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WRN THROUGH CNTRL MT ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY WILL BE AT A MAXIMUM...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 12:21:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 07:21:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507151233.j6FCXLbC018158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151230 SWODY1 SPC AC 151228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DGW 20 NNW 81V 25 WNW REJ 60 ESE REJ 45 WNW VTN 45 E SNY AKO 20 NNW DEN 40 SE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 SE INL ...CONT... 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL 55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL ...CONT... 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW 25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 15 WNW END 25 N BVO 55 NNE JLN 20 ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NNE CVS ...CONT... 75 S GBN 30 SSE PHX 15 NNW PHX 45 WNW PHX 75 SE EED 30 ESE EED 30 S LAS 35 S DRA 50 SW DRA 30 ENE NID 20 SE NID 30 N RAL 15 NNW RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 N OXR 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD AS FAIRLY STRONG UPR LOW NOW OFF THE BC CST PROGRESSES E/SE TO THE BC/AB BORDER. FARTHER E...WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM MI TO TX. SHALLOW NRN PLNS COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN OVER MN/SE SD AND NEB. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE SHAPE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT OVER ID/MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO UPR SYSTEM CROSSING BC. ...ERN WY/ERN CO/WRN NEB/WRN SD... LIGHT ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SE INTO CNTRL NEB. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLAINS. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MEAN AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER ERN WY/NRN CO/WRN NEB AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE PROMOTED BY UPR IMPULSE APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY NOW CROSSING WY...ALTHOUGH FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE MOVED BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS BY PEAK HEATING. AT ANY RATE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP E/SEWD. PROXIMITY OF UPR RIDGE WILL KEEP DEEP NNWLY SHEAR QUITE MODEST /AOB 30 KTS/...AND SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE/DEGREE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN SD/MN/WRN WI SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF WEAKENING DEEP SHEAR/CONVERGENCE FROM MN SWWD INTO SD AS SURFACE HEATING BREAKS CAP. MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT WEAKNESS OF SHEAR AND ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/SEVERITY. ...E CNTRL/SE AZ... FAIRLY DEEP ENELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SRN FRINGE OF UT HIGH. THIS WILL FAVOR WSW MOVEMENT OF STORMS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE ERN RIM COUNTRY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER REGION ...A FEW FORWARD-PROPAGATING CELLS COULD YIELD STRONG LOCAL GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...WRN/CNTRL MT TONIGHT... A FEW STORMS COULD FORM TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY OVER WRN AND CNTRL MT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING BC TROUGH. UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD CONFINE ANY SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS MID LEVEL WSW FLOW INCREASES TO AOA 50 KTS. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 16:11:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 11:11:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507151623.j6FGNcnj016574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151615 SWODY1 SPC AC 151613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 20 ESE GBN 30 W PHX 55 SSW PRC 65 ENE BLH 60 WSW EED 20 S DAG 25 N RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 SE INL ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL 55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW 25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 15 WNW END 25 N BVO 55 NNE JLN 20 ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NNE CVS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND RIDGE VICINITY E COAST...A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTS FROM GREAT LAKES SWWD TO TX. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PAC NW INTO WRN MT BY END OF PERIOD. MUCH OF CONUS IS UNDER A RATHER WEAK FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO ERN SD. THERE IS ALSO WEAK UPSLOPE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF SHALLOW SURFACE HIGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ND/WRN SD. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL DAMPEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE SELY UPSLOPE SUPPORTS A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN WY INTO MT THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT ALONG WITH THE CAPPING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS DEVELOPING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE REDUCED SEVERE THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS REACHING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN. ...UPPER MS VALLEY ... WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MN INTO ERN SD WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS ALSO RATHER WEAK...SUPPORTING PRIMARILY A PULSE SEVERE THREAT. ...AZ... ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE SRN AZ AS NOTED ON SURFACE DEWPOINT CHANGES AS WELL AS THE GPS PWV DATA FROM AZ AND SONORA. WITH ELY STEERING FLOW AROUND UPPER HIGH TO THE N...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP VICINITY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...TO THEN PROPAGATE INTO SURROUNDING DESERT VALLEYS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR DOWNBURST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 19:55:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 14:55:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507152007.j6FK70Gl026029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152004 SWODY1 SPC AC 152002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 20 ESE GBN 30 W PHX 55 SSW PRC 65 ENE BLH 60 WSW EED 20 S DAG 25 N RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 30 E INL ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL 55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW 25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 25 WNW END 30 SSW ICT 10 SSW EMP MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SSW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NNE CVS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE PAC NW TO SRN AND ERN CANADA. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. WILL PREVAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN SD/NERN NEB... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MN SWWD INTO ERN SD AND NRN NEB...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ REINFORCED LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING FROM NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL MN. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA EXTENDED INTO NRN MN...AND WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FARTHER S/SW ACROSS SRN MN/ERN SD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FORECAST WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS NERN MN INTO NRN WI WHERE SHEAR/CAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN MN AND EXTREME NWRN WI...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WY...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WY/WRN SD SWD INTO CO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION. WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE MULTICELLS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN MT TO ERN CO WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. ...AZ... ENELY STEERING FLOW AROUND UPPER HIGH TO THE N WILL SUPPORT A TENDENCY FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS TO PROPAGATE INTO SURROUNDING DESERT VALLEYS. VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AZ INTO FAR SWRN NM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING INTO THE VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES... LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH/REMNANTS OF DENNIS...WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO TX. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND/OR NEAR WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 00:48:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 19:48:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507160100.j6G10avR029014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160058 SWODY1 SPC AC 160057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 30 WNW GBN 70 ENE BLH 30 ESE EED 60 WSW EED 15 SE DAG 20 NNE RAL 30 NNW LAX 40 SSW BFL 25 NNW BFL FAT 30 ENE SCK 50 WNW TVL 35 NE RNO 30 NNW WMC 55 SE BNO 35 NNE BKE GEG 35 NNW 63S ...CONT... 75 NE ISN 10 ESE ISN 55 SW DIK 20 WNW PHP 9V9 35 SE FAR 30 E INL ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 15 NE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 WSW LBB 45 ESE LBB 35 W CSM 25 E END 20 E JLN 30 ENE VOK 30 E EAU 10 NNW MKT 25 E OFK 30 S MCK 55 ENE LAA 45 NE CAO 30 NNE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE DGW 40 NW GCC 45 NE COD 50 ENE JAC 35 SSE BPI 35 NE VEL 45 E CAG 40 NNE LAR 50 NNE DGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN CO... THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. ...TX THROUGH SERN STATES... THE THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MULTICELL STORMS FROM TX EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ... NRN NEB THROUGH SERN SD AND SWRN MN... THIS EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NRN NEB NEWD THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL MN. ISOLATED STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN MN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS GRADUALLY DECREASING. ...MT... INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NERN MN OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT 00Z RAOB FROM GLASGOW SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAGER CAPE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 05:36:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 00:36:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507160548.j6G5mMTM005023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160546 SWODY1 SPC AC 160544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 35 WNW PHP 30 WNW RAP 45 WSW REJ 35 ENE SHR 35 NNW SHR 45 NE BIL 20 S GGW 70 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC 50 NE IGM 20 SW SGU 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 15 S RNO 25 NE OWY 80 NE BOI 25 NNW S80 40 WSW GEG 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 20 WNW INL 45 N ATY 25 N LBF 20 SSW IML 20 W AMA 40 WNW CDS 10 SE LTS 40 N ADM 45 SW JLN 35 ENE SZL 45 ESE FOD 25 E MKT 65 NW EAU 120 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 10 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...ERN MT THROUGH NWRN SD AND MUCH OF ND... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS MT SATURDAY. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ENEWD INTO SRN CANADA EARLY IN THE DAY AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO ERN MT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX WILL MOVE EWD WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH MT AND ND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW RESIDING FROM SD INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ADVECTING NWD UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH ND AND EXTREME ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS PROMOTING A STRONG CAP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS COULD SERVE AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION ON FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER FORCING ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET LIFT NWD INTO CANADA. BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BE AROUND PEAK HEATING OVER NRN ND WHERE STRONGEST FORCING ALONG FRONT IS EXPECTED. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT...STRONG VERTICAL HEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...OTHER STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE CAP. CAPE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ERN MT AND ND. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 12:42:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 07:42:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507161254.j6GCsTJ4024519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161252 SWODY1 SPC AC 161250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S BIS 35 NW PHP 45 ESE 81V 35 NNW 81V 35 NNE COD 25 SSE 3HT 20 SSW GGW 70 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 10 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 15 NW TVL 25 NE OWY 80 NE BOI 25 NNW S80 40 WSW GEG 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW COU 30 SW JLN 30 SSE END 40 NW CDS 25 WNW AMA 20 S IML 30 SE ANW 20 SE YKN 30 E DSM 35 WNW COU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW NEARING THE BC/AB BORDER SHOULD AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS JET MAX NOW ENTERING WRN WA/ORE /PER WATER VAPOR/ CONTINUES E/SEWD. LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB LOW LIKELY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS NRN MT/SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN RCKYS IN RESPONSE TO WA/ORE SPEED MAX. BY 12Z SUNDAY EXPECT THAT OVERALL SYSTEM WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A FAIRLY STRONG POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN MB SW INTO WRN WY/ERN ID. ELSEWHERE...RIDGES WILL PERSIST INVOF THE 4 CORNERS AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. AT LWR LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER SE MT. THE LATTER LOW SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS ND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. ...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE DAKS... AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF LEAD NRN RCKYS IMPULSE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS OVER ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDDAY AS LLJ READJUSTS W IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF WA/ORE SPEED MAX. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. BOUNDARY LAYER NOW OVER SD AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY SHOULD SPREAD N/NW INTO ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BENEATH STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ADVECTED NE OFF THE RCKYS. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF ND/FAR ERN MT AND NW SD BY MID AFTERNOON ...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE EML WILL... HOWEVER...MAINTAIN A STRONG CAP OVER REGION AND LIMIT SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS FARTHER NE INTO CANADA. NEVERTHELESS...FORCED UPLIFT ALONG STALLING SURFACE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OVER NRN ND. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN THIS AREA...40+ KT DEEP SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF STORMS THIS PERIOD WILL DEVELOP IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/ERN MT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WA/ORE DISTURBANCE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SQUALL LINES THAT MOVE E INTO ND/NW SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ...UPR MS VLY... SCATTERED...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN SD/MN AND NRN IA. PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND MODEST SHEAR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS THAT BRIEFLY ROTATE..POSING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL. ...SE AZ... STLT DATA INDICATE THAT ERN AZ/WRN NM AREA HAS MOISTENED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF 4 CORNERS RIDGE SHOULD FAVOR NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER REGION. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 13:04:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 08:04:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507161316.j6GDGIfY031768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161313 SWODY1 SPC AC 161311 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S BIS 35 NW PHP 45 ESE 81V 35 NNW 81V 35 NNE COD 25 SSE 3HT 20 SSW GGW 70 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 10 NE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 15 NW TVL 25 NE OWY 80 NE BOI 25 NNW S80 40 WSW GEG 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DSM 20 SE YKN 30 SE ANW 20 S IML 25 WNW AMA 40 NW CDS 30 SSE END 30 SW JLN 35 WNW COU 30 E DSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR BACKWARD GEN TSTM LINE OVER CENTRAL CONUS ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW NEARING THE BC/AB BORDER SHOULD AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS JET MAX NOW ENTERING WRN WA/ORE /PER WATER VAPOR/ CONTINUES E/SEWD. LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB LOW LIKELY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS NRN MT/SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN RCKYS IN RESPONSE TO WA/ORE SPEED MAX. BY 12Z SUNDAY EXPECT THAT OVERALL SYSTEM WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A FAIRLY STRONG POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN MB SW INTO WRN WY/ERN ID. ELSEWHERE...RIDGES WILL PERSIST INVOF THE 4 CORNERS AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. AT LWR LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER SE MT. THE LATTER LOW SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS ND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. ...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE DAKS... AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF LEAD NRN RCKYS IMPULSE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS OVER ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDDAY AS LLJ READJUSTS W IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF WA/ORE SPEED MAX. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. BOUNDARY LAYER NOW OVER SD AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY SHOULD SPREAD N/NW INTO ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BENEATH STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ADVECTED NE OFF THE RCKYS. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF ND/FAR ERN MT AND NW SD BY MID AFTERNOON ...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE EML WILL... HOWEVER...MAINTAIN A STRONG CAP OVER REGION AND LIMIT SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS FARTHER NE INTO CANADA. NEVERTHELESS...FORCED UPLIFT ALONG STALLING SURFACE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OVER NRN ND. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN THIS AREA...40+ KT DEEP SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF STORMS THIS PERIOD WILL DEVELOP IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/ERN MT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WA/ORE DISTURBANCE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SQUALL LINES THAT MOVE E INTO ND/NW SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ...UPR MS VLY... SCATTERED...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN SD/MN AND NRN IA. PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND MODEST SHEAR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS THAT BRIEFLY ROTATE..POSING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL. ...SE AZ... STLT DATA INDICATE THAT ERN AZ/WRN NM AREA HAS MOISTENED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF 4 CORNERS RIDGE SHOULD FAVOR NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER REGION. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ..CORFIDI.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 16:19:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 11:19:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507161631.j6GGVCM1029183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161618 SWODY1 SPC AC 161617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S BIS 35 NW PHP 45 ENE 81V 30 NE SHR 50 E BIL 55 S GGW 20 ESE GGW 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 20 SE EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 10 WNW TVL OWY 80 NE BOI S80 40 SW GEG 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30 N OFK 30 NNW BBW IML 45 NW EHA 40 NNW TCC TCC 50 NW CDS 30 SW JLN 10 NE SZL OMA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... IMPRESSIVE MID-SUMMER TROUGH MOVING THRU PAC NW FORECASTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. LEAD S/WV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WRN ND. TRAILING 60PLUS KT 500MB JET MAX WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND ERN MT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE HEATING. WITH THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING EWD...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG MUCH OF AFTERNOON INTO WRN DAKOTAS/ERN MT. HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AOA 100F INTO WRN PORTIONS OF DAKOTAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CAP WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION. ACROSS ERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DRY LOWER LEVELS...REDUCING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER E ACROSS ND THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG BUT THE CAP WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE UNTIL THIS EVENING. CURRENT ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS LEAD IMPULSE MOVES NEWD INTO SRN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ERN MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN UP TO 60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DURING THE EVENING ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO ND WHERE A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS MOSTLY ND NWD INTO SRN CANADA CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ...SERN AZ... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LIMITED FOR ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR BRIEF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND TRY TO PROPAGATE INTO ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS THIS EVENING PRIOR TO DISSIPATING IN THE MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORM COULD SPREAD ACROSS DESERT VALLEYS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 19:54:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 14:54:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507162005.j6GK5uM6031672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162003 SWODY1 SPC AC 162001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT ABR 35 NW PHP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNW SHR 50 E BIL 55 S GGW 20 ESE GGW 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 20 SE EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 10 WNW TVL OWY 80 NE BOI S80 40 SW GEG 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30 N OFK 30 NNW BBW IML 45 NW EHA 40 NNW TCC TCC 50 NW CDS 30 SW JLN 30 W SZL OMA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VORTICITY MAX MOVING ESEWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN BC. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 17/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER EXTREME NERN MT WILL DEVELOP INTO NWRN ND THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO SRN MANITOBA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REACHING AN ERN ND/NORTH CENTRAL NEB/NERN CO LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS SRN ND THEN NWWD INTO THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH TONIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS... ELEVATED CONVECTION ORIGINATING ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS NERN MT AND ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS INTO ERN SD AND CENTRAL/SRN MN IS SPREADING NWWD INTO EXTREME ERN MT...ND AND NRN MN WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S IN ERN MT AND THE 65-70F RANGE IN ND AND NRN MN. A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM) ATOP A CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 850 MB IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG OVER WRN AND SRN ND. THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER NERN WY/SERN MT INTO SD IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEEDING 100F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARMING COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF ERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT...NWRN SD AND WRN ND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ND AND WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE DAKOTAS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION TOWARD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN SD AND ND BEFORE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...AZ/NM... A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN NM WWD INTO PARTS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ. THESE STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWWD WITHIN A BAND OF 20 KT NELY MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN AZ. PRESENCE OF DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 05:00:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 00:00:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507170512.j6H5CK0h031904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170509 SWODY1 SPC AC 170508 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM 10 NNW OJC 10 NNW ICT 15 ENE LBL 35 SSW LHX 45 WNW COS 15 ENE 4FC 30 SW AKO 45 SW IML 30 E LBF 35 SE MHE 25 NE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 SW ABI 15 SSW SPS 30 ESE OKC 20 SSE TUL 40 ENE TUL 30 WSW UMN 10 NNE STL 10 NNW CMI 35 NNW PIA 30 NNE SZL 20 W CNU 30 SSE P28 65 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 60 NW GBN 45 WNW PRC 50 NNW GCN 20 NW U17 15 WSW GJT 35 SE CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 45 NNW MBG 60 NNW REJ 35 W GDV 65 NNE GGW ...CONT... 40 WNW 3B1 25 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WELL AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF ND AND PERHAPS NWRN MN...INVOF COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS SHOULD THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING SWD ALONG FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE ZONE ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT...AS CAPPING WITHIN WARM SECTOR SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY TRUE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE FRONT SHOULD MOVE MOST RAPIDLY EWD. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FROM ERN CO NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION -- AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE 25% HAIL PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN TANDEM WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ..GOSS.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 12:27:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 07:27:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507171239.j6HCdK8k012571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171237 SWODY1 SPC AC 171235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM 10 NNW OJC 10 NNW ICT 25 SE LBL 20 WNW CAO 50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 30 NNW LIC 45 NW GLD 30 E LBF 35 SE MHE 25 NE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW 3B1 25 NE PWM ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 SW ABI 15 SSW SPS 30 ESE OKC 20 SSE TUL 40 ENE TUL 35 NNW UNO STL 10 NNW CMI 35 NNW PIA 55 NW COU 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 60 WSW GAG 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 60 NW GBN 45 WNW PRC 50 NNW GCN 20 NW U17 30 NW GJT 10 NE CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 45 NNW MBG 10 E 4BQ 50 SW MLS 65 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS SW INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT/WY WILL CONTINUE E INTO MN/IA AND ATTAIN MAXIMUM AMPLIFICATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SWRN RIDGE RETROGRESSES SLIGHTLY INTO WRN AZ. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MT/WY IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY S AND E...REACHING A MQT/MSN/IRK/ICT/CVS LINE BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS SW INTO ERN NEB/KS... COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD WEAKEN EXISTING CAP AND PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS MEAN MLCAPE RISES TO AOA 2000 J/KG. WHILE CAPE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...IT APPEARS THAT CONFIGURATION OF UPPER TROUGH RELATIVE TO FRONT WILL TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. WITH TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN SEWD WELL BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO BACK WITH TIME AND BECOME PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN/CNTRL MN. THIS SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY QUICK EVOLUTION OF ANY DISCRETE STORMS INTO LINE SEGMENTS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR. SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS-BOUNDARY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER IA/NEB AND KS...BUT CAP WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT RATHER WEAK. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHARP FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL ASCENT PROVIDED BY FRONT...EXPECT THAT A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM MN SWWD INTO ERN/SRN NEB. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVER ERN ND/WRN MN. THE MN CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO WI/UPR MI THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BENEATH 35-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. FARTHER S...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ AND MORE WIDESPREAD AVAILABILITY OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT NEB STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCSS. THESE SYSTEMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY SE INTO PARTS OF KS AND IA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND WRN KS IN WAKE OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE PREDOMINANT ANTICYCLONIC NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTORS...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE INFLUX BOOST MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND HIGH WIND BEFORE THE ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THAT CONTINUE S/SE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL/ERN AZ INTO WRN NM... SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF SWRN RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF AZ/WRN NM. THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FAVOR S/SSW MOTION OF STORMS FORMING OVER THE RIM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ. ACTIVITY MAY BE MODULATED BY WEAK IMPULSES SHED SWD FROM MT/WY TROUGH...AND COULD MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT PRODUCE GUSTY WIND. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 15:55:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 10:55:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507171606.j6HG6ho5012285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171600 SWODY1 SPC AC 171558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM MKC 15 SE HUT 25 SE LBL 25 N CAO 50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 45 W AKO 45 NW GLD 40 NE MCK 15 SE YKN 35 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 60 ESE BLH 20 NE IGM 50 NNW GCN CAG 30 NE LAR 25 ESE MHN 45 SSW 9V9 50 E MBG 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 65 SSW P07 35 WNW P07 40 WSW SPS 45 SW JLN 25 WNW TBN STL BMI 25 SE MLI 20 NNE SZL 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 65 S LBL 40 S DHT 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 20 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON AM. ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EWD TO EXTEND AT 15Z FROM ERN ND SSWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB THEN WSWWD TO VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE IN ERN CO. 30-40KT SSWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF MN WILL ALLOW STRONG HEATING PRIOR TO INITIATION OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IMPLY THAT CIN WILL DISSIPATE AS SFC TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 90S ALLOWING RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY MID AFTERNOON WRN MN WHEN MLCAPES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NERN MN/ARROWHEAD WHERE LONGER DURATION OF HEATING AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE FORCING AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE STORMS TEND TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MODE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN NRN MN SHEAR WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THAT AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PARTICULARLY SINCE MLCAPES THIS AREA COULD BE AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG. THUS HAVE ADDED A LOW PROB OF TORNADOES AS WELL AS INCREASE THE HAIL THREAT INTO NRN MN. THE THREAT OF AT LEAST WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET EWD INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE STRONGER WINDS WITH THE TROUGH ROTATE THRU THIS AREA. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING FRONT RANGE ERN CO... THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD FRONT SHOULD EASE BY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL LOCATION EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB WSWWD TO JUST S OF PALMER DIVIDE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB TO ERN CO. WHILE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...THE MDT/STG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. WHILE FLOW IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT BOWS OR LINE SEGMENTS...THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE STRONG GIVEN THE LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND DRY MID LEVELS. ...SRN AZ... APPEARS ATTM TO BE A GREATER THREAT OF STORMS DEVELOPING SWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY THAN THERE HAS BEEN RECENTLY. ALTHOUGH PW'S HAVE CHANGED LITTLE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE IS GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE N/NELY 15-25 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS ON THE E SIDE OF LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SIERRAS. WITH MOISTURE PROFILES FAVORING A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GREATER STORM MOTION TOWARD THE DESERTS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST STRONG OUTFLOW INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY THE TIME OF THE AFTERNOON OUTLOOK...THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 19:46:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 14:46:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507171957.j6HJvkue021916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171955 SWODY1 SPC AC 171954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 25 SSE OTM 10 ESE FLV 15 SE HUT 25 SE LBL 25 N CAO 50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 45 W AKO 45 NW GLD 40 NE MCK 15 SE YKN 35 W RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 25 WSW PHX 40 SE PRC 25 SSW SOW 40 NE SAD 35 ESE DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW P07 35 WNW P07 40 WSW SPS 45 SW JLN 25 WNW TBN STL BMI 25 SE MLI 20 NNE SZL 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 65 S LBL 40 S DHT 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 60 ESE YUM 60 ESE BLH 20 NE IGM BCE CAG 30 NE LAR 25 WNW MHN 45 N VTN 30 W ABR 40 N JMS 70 NNW DVL ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 20 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT ARCS FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN SD...CENTRAL NEB INTO EAST CENTRAL CO. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND SEWD REACHING AN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SWRN WI/NWRN MO/NERN NM LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO... STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MAINTAINING A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THIS AREA CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM WRN MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NERN NEB...ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 700 MB BASED ON LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPENING MOIST LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP... INITIALLY OVER NRN MN THEN EXTENDING SWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO SRN MN/NWRN IA INTO NERN NEB. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NRN/CENTRAL MN AROUND 21-22Z WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SRN MN/EXTREME SERN SD/NWRN IA AND NERN NEB BY 23-00Z. STRONG LINEAR FORCING INDICATES LIKELIHOOD OF BROKEN LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD/SEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PRIMARILY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MN WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY A VEERING WIND PROFILE. PRESENCE OF WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE PBL WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI..WI..AND CENTRAL/ERN IA...AND POSSIBLY NERN KS AND NWRN MO TONIGHT. ...WRN/CENTRAL KS INTO ERN CO... MOIST EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO IN THE WAKE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL AID CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND NERN CO ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WHERE MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG) MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP. PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THIS AREA. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AFTER DARK OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND INCREASES CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION LIFT. ...PARTS OF AZ/SWRN NM... THUNDERSTORM ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SUGGESTING THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS INDICATED PW IN THE 1.2-1.4 INCH RANGE AND CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. VAD WINDS AT FSX/IWA/EMX EXHIBIT 20-25 KT NLY FLOW SUGGESTING STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE WELL MIXED AND VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE DESERTS WITH THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 00:52:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 19:52:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507180104.j6I14T4w006932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180102 SWODY1 SPC AC 180101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE AUW 25 N DBQ 25 SSE OTM 10 ESE FLV 15 SE HUT 35 ESE LBL 10 W CAO 30 ENE TAD 20 SSW LIC 45 NW GLD 45 SSW BBW 15 WSW SPW 20 SSE STC 55 N EAU 25 NNE AUW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 35 SW BWD MWL 40 SE SGF 55 NW CGI 35 SE UIN 20 NNE SZL 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 65 S LBL 35 SW TCC 40 SW ROW 20 W ELP ...CONT... 60 SSW GBN 70 ENE BLH 50 E IGM 40 SW GUP FMN 50 NW ALS 50 NNW 4FC 10 S LAR 20 NNE SNY 20 SW FSD 35 S AXN 40 W INL ...CONT... 80 W CAR 3B1 PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD INTO ERN CO / WRN KS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SSWWD INTO NWRN IA...THEN SWWD INTO SERN CO. THOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED STORMS THUS FAR...ALONG WITH ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. THOUGH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GREATEST THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS FROM WRN IA SWWD INTO N CENTRAL KS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING. ...SERN AZ... STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SWD / SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN AZ THROUGH MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AIDED BY BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL NLY / NELY FLOW AROUND SRN NV HIGH. AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVEALED BY RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 05:33:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 00:33:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507180545.j6I5jLDu011147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180543 SWODY1 SPC AC 180541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ERI 25 NE ZZV 25 NNW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 15 NW PIA MKG 55 ESE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 10 E IGM 60 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW CEZ 35 SE MTJ 10 WSW EGE FCL AKO MCK LNK 35 NNE DSM LSE IWD 70 NNW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MI / THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD FROM THE N CENTRAL CONUS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / ONTARIO...WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WLYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS / SRN CANADA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS -- SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE NRN PORTIONS OF FRONT CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION... CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE START OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REINTENSIFICATION - REDEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA -- TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL-SCALE LINES. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. FURTHER SWWD...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE LOWER LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. ...HIGH PLAINS OF CO / NERN NM... SELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS CO / NERN NM. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND WITH SELYS AT LOW-LEVELS BENEATH MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. NAM APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH DESTABILIZATION /DUE TO OVERACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME/ AS COMPARED TO NAMKF RUN...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND ATTM. HOWEVER...MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ...CENTRAL AND SRN AZ... STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THEN MOVE SWWD OFF THE RIM INTO WHAT SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. WITH NAM DEPICTING 25 TO 30 KT NELY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SERN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS. ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 12:32:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 07:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507181243.j6IChwC8003835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181241 SWODY1 SPC AC 181240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JHW 15 W HLG 20 NW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 35 SSW CGX 35 SE MBL 55 ESE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 10 E IGM 60 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW CEZ 35 SE MTJ 10 WSW EGE FCL AKO 30 SSW MCK 25 NE CNK 20 NW IRK 40 WSW LNR 10 WNW RHI 55 N CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE ENE LATER THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. EXPECT NRN PART OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E TO THE LWR GRT LKS...WHILE THE SRN PART WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS. ...GRT LKS/OH VLY... COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AS UPR TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STORM REINTENSIFICATION/REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT LIKELY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. BUT DEEP WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT... ESPECIALLY OVER LWR MI AND IND/NRN OH...TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO LINES WITH SMALL-SCALE BOWS. WHILE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT CAPE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...EWD TO THE LWR LKS. FARTHER SW...WEAKER UPR FLOW WILL FAVOR LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. BUT PRESENCE OF SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF MO/KS AND NRN OK. ...S CNTRL/SE CO INTO NRN/ERN NM AND THE WRN OK/TX PNHDLS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD W INTO THE SRN RCKYS IN WAKE OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOSING S ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS. COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...REGION SHOULD SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODEST NNWLY UPR FLOW WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT IF ENOUGH STORMS DO FORM...CONSOLIDATION INTO A S OR SSE-MOVING MCS MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE OF PARTS OF SRN CO AND NRN/ERN NM TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...SRN AZ... SLIGHT W/E ELONGATION OF PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS EXPECTED TO VEER MID LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NELY DIRECTION OVER SE AZ TODAY...AND POSSIBLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE. THE UPR FLOW SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN DIFFLUENT OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS...WHERE WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK IMPULSES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP S ALONG ERN FRINGE OF RIDGE. THUS...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE ERN RIM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS THE ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SW INTO THE LWR DESERTS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 16:05:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 11:05:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507181616.j6IGGdmi014131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181607 SWODY1 SPC AC 181605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JHW 15 W HLG 20 NW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 35 SSW CGX 35 SE MBL 55 ESE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE YUM 15 SSW IGM 55 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW 20 W FMN 35 SE MTJ 10 SSE EGE FCL AKO 35 NNE GLD 30 NE CNK 35 SSE P35 20 W BRL 10 NE DBQ 35 W LNR 25 WNW CWA 60 N CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... VIGOROUS SUMMERTIME TROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY CONTINUES EWD WITH A S/WV IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING ACROSS LWR GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM RATHER DEEP LOW W OF JAMES BAY SWD THRU ERN LS AND THEN ARCING SWWD ACROSS LM INTO NRN MO THEN ACROSS NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPES CURRENTLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT NWRN LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND DOWN THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EWD. GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS AND GENERALLY MDT BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...STORMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DURING THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NRN OH VALLEY. SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THIS AREA...HOWEVER WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT. SEVERE RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY. ......LOWER MO VALLEY WWD TO EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM SRN MO WWD ACROSS WRN KS/NRN OK TO EAST SLOPES OF ROCKIES. WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY. A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR NERN NM/SERN CO...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE COULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER THE WARM LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ...SRN AZ... ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES FROM SUNDAY ARE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THIS AM SERN AZ WITH THE MORNING CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE. WITH STRONG HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEERING FLOW ON E SIDE OF UPPER HIGH STILL FROM THE N/NE 15-20 KTS WHICH WILL AGAIN FAVOR PROPAGATION OF MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO THE DESERTS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. WILL REEVALUATE RISK POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IF COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN STORMS IS SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL TO DEVELOP INTO DESERT VALLEYS. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 00:40:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 19:40:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507190052.j6J0qHJx001853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190050 SWODY1 SPC AC 190048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SVE 40 N RNO 10 WNW NFL 60 SE NFL 50 NNE BIH 30 NNW BIH 60 NW BIH 25 SSE TVL 30 WSW RNO 25 SSE SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 25 W PHX 40 WSW PRC 55 SW GCN 25 SE GCN 20 NNW INW 25 SSW GUP 20 W 4SL 50 W ALS 40 E GUC 40 WNW COS 15 WNW LIC 25 WSW GLD 20 SW RSL 40 S EMP 20 WNW VIH 15 WNW CMI 20 WSW AZO 25 SSE HTL 40 N APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHERE MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OBSERVED. STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING / INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST...HOWEVER...AS WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK /GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 TO 30 KT/ THROUGH MID LEVELS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS CONTINUE INVOF TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT LYING ROUGHLY W-E FROM NRN OK INTO SRN CO...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...ELY SURFACE WINDS JUST N OF BOUNDARY VEERING TO WLY AT LOW TO MID LEVELS IS YIELDING ENHANCED SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL. STORMS MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...SERN AZ... THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN AZ CONTINUE MOVING SEWD...AIDED BY 30 KT NELY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP MIXED LAYER IN PLACE...A FEW STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION DECREASES. ..GOSS.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 05:50:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 00:50:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507190602.j6J62Il9026349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW CMX 50 NE MSP 10 SSW SUX 50 NNE BUB 15 NE 9V9 25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 30 N RAL 15 SW LAS 10 NW GCN 55 N INW 35 NW GUP 35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 25 S DEN 15 SSW LIC 55 WSW GLD 40 SW MCK 40 SSW MHN 10 NE PHP 35 E Y22 20 SSW P24 25 SSE ISN 10 NW OLF 65 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW ANJ 35 ENE VOK 15 WNW CID 25 WNW LWD 35 ESE STJ 30 WSW COU 30 SSE SPI 45 NNW MFD 60 ESE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S BIH 40 W BIH 50 SSW TVL 60 SSW SVE 20 E SVE 40 WNW LOL 25 E NFL 10 NW TPH 35 S BIH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S TX... ...SYNOPSIS... AS TRAILING PORTION OF ERN CANADA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A SECOND TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. STRONG /60 TO 70 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WITH STRONGEST FLOW FORECAST JUST N OF THE U.S. / CANADA BORDER. WEAK FRONT / TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN CONUS...WHILE STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF SECOND TROUGH. IN ADDITION...HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NERN MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE...BELT OF MODERATELY-STRONG WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL ADVECT STEEP LAPSE RATES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING OF CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN ND -- AND PERHAPS SWD ACROSS SD ALONG LEE TROUGH. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING AS FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NWRN MN / ERN ND AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN SD...AIDED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / LAPSE RATES...40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED...WITH SLY / SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING / INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KTS FROM THE W AT MID LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT...WHILE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL CONTINUES. ...NEW ENGLAND... STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT / TROUGH. THOUGH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE VIGOROUS STORMS TO EVOLVE...OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THOUGH A DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN MARGINAL / LIMITED OVERALL. ...SERN AZ AND VICINITY... AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD AGAIN FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM / SERN AZ AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. ENHANCED ELY FLOW ALOFT AROUND S SIDE OF UPPER HIGH SHOULD PROMOTE WWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY ABOVE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS. ...S TX... HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NERN MEXICO COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SPREADING EWD ACROSS S TX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 12:18:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 07:18:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507191230.j6JCUFUC021236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191228 SWODY1 SPC AC 191226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW CMX 50 NE MSP 20 NNW MCW 45 WSW FOD 30 SW SUX 40 WSW YKN 15 NE 9V9 25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE GBN 25 ENE GBN 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S BIH 40 W BIH 50 SSW TVL 60 SSW SVE 20 E SVE 40 WNW LOL 25 E NFL 10 NW TPH 35 S BIH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W GJT 50 N ELY 60 ESE OWY 35 NE MLD 30 NE JAC 60 NW RIW 20 NE RKS 30 W GJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 30 N RAL 15 SW LAS 10 NW GCN 55 N INW 35 NW GUP 35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 25 S DEN 15 SSW LIC 55 WSW GLD 40 SW MCK 40 SSW MHN 10 NE PHP 35 E Y22 20 SSW P24 25 SSE ISN 10 NW OLF 65 NW GGW ...CONT... 75 WNW ANJ 35 ENE VOK 15 WNW CID 25 WNW LWD 35 ESE STJ 30 WSW COU 30 SSE SPI 45 NNW MFD 60 ESE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF DEEP S TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES THIS PERIOD... WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW REMAINING N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THE TWO STRONG JET STREAKS DEPICTED ATTM IN WV DATA OVER SRN AB AND THE ERN GULF OF AK MAY AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY...THE BULK OF THEIR INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE BORDER. FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL IMPULSES SKIRTING FRINGE OF PERSISTENT SWRN U.S. RIDGE. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS NOW ENTERING WY AND SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL SD BY THE END OF THE DAY. FARTHER E...IMPULSE WHICH AFFECTED THE UPR LKS YESTERDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE INTO QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AB SPEED MAX SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY DROP SE ACROSS MT/ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A N-S WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN...ON BACK SIDE OF COOL HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT HRCN EMILY WILL AFFECT PARTS OF S TX LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...ERN PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE NRN PLNS THIS MORNING AS FRONT WHICH SETTLED S ACROSS REGION YESTERDAY REDEVELOPS NWD. MEANWHILE...MODERATE WLY FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF CANADIAN SPEED MAX WILL SPREAD A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ACROSS THE REGION ...WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE TO AOA 12C EWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STRENGTHENING EML WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN DAKS AND NW MN. STRONG CAP LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE DAKS...DESPITE INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH. BUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING INVOF SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER NE ND/NW MN...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST AND CAPPING WEAKEST. WITH TIME... ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM SWD ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR ALONG WARM FRONT INTO FAR ERN SD/SW MN...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ. GIVEN COMBINATION OF STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 4000 J PER KG/ AND 40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN NE ND AND NRN/WRN MN. OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG AND BEHIND MERGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...DEEP S TX... THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF HRCN "EMILY" SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF S TX BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND NHC FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL POSE A RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. ...CNTRL/SRN AZ AND SW NM... PERSISTENT NRN AZ UPR RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ELONGATE EWD TODAY AS WLY FLOW INCREASES TO ITS NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL VEERING OF THE MEAN MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN AZ TO ENELY. GIVEN RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPARENT IN STLT IMAGERY... EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE W OR WSW INTO VERY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LWR DESERTS...WHERE MERGING OUTFLOWS COULD YIELD A FEW CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND. ...NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND... WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW ENTERING QUEBEC WILL MOVE E INTO WRN NY TODAY AND WEAKEN...PRECEDED BY SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS. PREDOMINANT WLY FLOW INVOF THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...WITH SURFACE HEATING EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL FORM/INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND...MORE LIKELY... ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGHS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MOIST UNCAPPED AIR AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/ CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ABSENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 15:51:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 10:51:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507191602.j6JG2bFr031498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191557 SWODY1 SPC AC 191555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW CMX 50 NE MSP 20 NNW MCW 45 WSW FOD 30 SW SUX 40 WSW YKN 15 NE 9V9 25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 WNW PHX 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 25 NE AUG 10 S PWM 15 N BOS 25 WNW PVD 20 SW BDL 15 NE POU 40 SW ALB 20 WNW GFL 30 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CNY 60 WNW 4HV 45 N TPH 25 WNW BIH 70 ENE MER 25 WNW TVL 35 WNW RNO 25 ESE WMC 15 NW IDA 30 NE JAC 35 NNW RIW 30 NW CAG 30 NE CNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 10 WNW RAL 20 SW PMD 10 W EDW 20 ENE LAS 45 SW PGA 40 WSW 4SL 35 WNW TAD 25 NNE AKO 25 SSW Y22 35 WSW DIK 65 NNW MLS 30 NNW HVR ...CONT... 25 NNW MQT VOK 15 WNW CID 20 WNW OTM 10 SW IRK 45 W STL 40 E IND CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...NEW ENGLAND... ...REF MCD 1777... VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WEAK COOL FRONT THAT STRETCHES WSWWD FROM JUST N OF ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY. TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL JUST BRUSH NERN STATES AS STRONGER WINDS AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD MOTION REMAIN MOSTLY IN CANADA. HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH STRONG HEATING CONDITIONS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE WARM LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...AZ... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AZ AS ACTIVE MCS TRACKING WWD ACROSS GULF OF CA OVERNIGHT HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW NOTED PARTICULARLY ON THE VAD WINDS AT YUM. VERY STRONG HEATING AGAIN TODAY AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVES WWD OUT OF SRN AZ WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH LCLS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW HAS TURNED TO MORE ELY ACROSS SRN AZ AS UPPER HIGH HAS BUILT SOMEWHAT EWD. THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SERN AZ TO PROPAGATE SWWD/WWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SCENTRAL AZ BY THIS EVENING. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE ACROSS SRN DESERTS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THRU CENTRAL INTO NRN PLAINS TODAY AS BAND OF STRONG WLYS DEVELOP EWD ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT CINH TO DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE THUNDERSTORM UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PROCESS ALLOWS A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG INTO ERN DAKOTAS. RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N/S TROUGH LINE THAT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY THREAT ALONG WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO MN DURING EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOL FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN MN. ...S TX... OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY WITH BE APPROACHING FAR S TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THREAT SHOULD NOT SPREAD MUCH N OF 28N LATITUDE AS EMILY TRACKS INTO THE NERN MEXICO COAST TO S OF BRO REF NHC FCST. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 19:56:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 14:56:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507192008.j6JK8H1i003762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192005 SWODY1 SPC AC 192003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 70 S DLH 15 NNW MKT 20 WSW SPW 10 ENE YKN 45 SE 9V9 50 SW MBG 40 E Y22 75 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 WNW PHX 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 25 NE AUG 10 S PWM 15 N BOS 25 WNW PVD 20 SW BDL 15 NE POU 40 SW ALB 20 WNW GFL 30 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CNY 60 WNW 4HV 45 N TPH 25 WNW BIH 70 ENE MER 25 WNW TVL 35 WNW RNO 25 ESE WMC 15 NW IDA 30 NE JAC 35 NNW RIW 30 NW CAG 30 NE CNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 10 WNW RAL 20 SW PMD 10 W EDW 20 ENE LAS 45 SW PGA 40 WSW 4SL 40 NW TAD 15 NNW LIC 25 ESE SNY 20 ENE AIA 25 SSE RAP 15 SE REJ 35 NNE REJ 35 NE DIK 20 SSE MOT 85 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 NNW MQT LSE 40 SSW ALO 30 W OTM 30 WSW IRK 35 NE COU 15 NNW ALN 35 SW HUF 40 NW CMH 20 NNW FKL 25 SE ROC 30 ENE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS S TX.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AZ.... ...ERN DAKOTAS/NW IA/MN AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO NW ND/NE MT. THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS NE KS...IT APPEARS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL REACH ERN ND/NW MN BY THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE RETURNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. INITIAL HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHING S CENTRAL ND/N CENTRAL SD...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INVOF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND ASCENT INCREASES. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...AND BOWING SEGMENTS OVERNIGHT AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WRN MAINE/NH TO SE NY. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG...BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 88-90 F. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ...S TX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. MEANWHILE...THE OUTER NRN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD S TX...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES TO PERSIST THROUGH 20/12Z ACROSS S TX. ...SRN AZ THROUGH TONIGHT... CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THOUGH THE LOWER DESERTS STILL APPEAR TO BE CAPPED...WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY SUPPORT WWD PROPAGATION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. ...VA AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL VA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO MD 1781 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM INFORMATION. ...KS AREA... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS S CENTRAL/CENTRAL KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AREA...BUT THE LONGER TERM SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAKENING OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW. ..THOMPSON.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 00:52:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 19:52:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507200103.j6K13rl0031431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200101 SWODY1 SPC AC 200059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 20 S NIR 20 S PSX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 65 S DLH 15 N FRM 35 WSW SPW 10 WNW YKN 35 SSW 9V9 45 N PHP 30 SSW JMS 75 W RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 N GBN 35 SE PRC 65 SW SOW 50 SSE SAD 50 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MQT 25 NE LSE 20 NNW DSM GRI 30 W IML 40 ESE AIA 35 SSE PHP 50 ENE 81V 25 WNW JMS 80 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 E RAL 10 SSW PMD 10 NNW EDW 60 NE NID 30 N LAS 15 E SGU 40 WSW PGA 50 ENE GCN 70 ESE PGA 25 SSE GUP 20 E GNT 15 SE 4SL 20 N DRO 45 WNW ALS 15 SSE ALS 30 WSW PUB 35 S PUB 10 ESE RTN 45 E LVS 55 E 4CR 45 ESE GDP 30 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LRD 40 NW SAT 25 W DUA 15 S JLN 10 NNW VIH 15 NNW EVV 15 SSW LUK 20 ESE PIT 15 ESE MSV LCI 35 WSW HUL 20 NE CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S TX... ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NERN ND SWWD INTO NWRN SD...AS WELL AS SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO N CENTRAL / NWRN NEB. AIRMASS AHEAD OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY INTENSIFYING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...S CENTRAL AND SERN AZ... CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION AND OVER SERN AZ ATTM. FLOW REMAINS WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...THOUGH 20 TO 30 KT ELY / ENELY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN QUARTER OF THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW STORMS NOW OVER E CENTRAL AND SERN AZ TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD. WITH DEEP MIXED LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 50 F/ OVER THIS REGION...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...S TX... HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF NERN MEXICO...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED 120 NM SE OF BRO. THOUGH BANDING IS CURRENTLY LIMITED ATTM N OF THE CENTER...A FEW BROKEN BANDS CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF S TX. WITHIN THESE BANDS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS DEEP S TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 05:38:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 00:38:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507200550.j6K5oIpV025737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200548 SWODY1 SPC AC 200546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ANJ 50 W PLN 45 SSW HTL 25 SSE SBN 45 NNW DNV 10 E BRL 40 S OMA 25 S MHN 50 NNE VTN 25 SW ATY 20 S BRD 55 N IWD 100 NE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S LRD 60 N BRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL 25 S CMH 40 ENE CRW 40 SSW MRB 35 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 40 SW BFL 15 N UKI 25 ESE CEC 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 40 ENE 4LW 50 S EKO 30 NW MLF 20 NNE CNY CAG 45 ENE RWL 55 SW GCC 60 SW MLS 70 SSW GGW OLF 20 S ISN 45 NNE Y22 65 NE MBG 50 SSE FAR 10 SSE BJI INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 40 E JCT 30 NNW ACT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20 SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO PARTS OF SD / NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS DEEP S TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO S OF EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS...BELT OF STRONGER / ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN U.S. / SRN CANADA. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM THE ERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THIS STRONGER / SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO SERN SD / NERN NEB... MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NERN SD THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN / NRN IA...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM SRN IA WNWWD ACROSS NRN NEB / SRN SD. THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SRN WI / NRN IL...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. THOUGH CONVECTION MAY CROSS NRN IN / LOWER MI OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER NW ALONG COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT / INTENSITY OF CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE ALONG FRONT ACROSS NRN WI / MN BY PRESENCE RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS FURTHER S OVER IA / SRN WI. MORE FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST THOUGH ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD / NRN NEB...WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. BY EARLY EVENING...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR / JUST N OF BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...AS FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE / SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS...AS STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY HIGH LCLS. A GREATER TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST WITHIN POTENTIALLY COOLER / MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IA / MN MCS...THOUGH EXISTENCE / LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS LESS THAN CERTAIN ATTM. OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MN / IA...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ...DEEP S TX... HURRICANE EMILY SHOULD BE INLAND BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW WWD PROGRESS. THIS HURRICANE IS QUITE COMPACT ATTM...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO AREAS S OF THE RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF BANDED CONVECTION FURTHER FROM THE CENTER / NWD INTO S TX WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION S OF CRP / LRD...WILL MAINTAIN 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THIS REGION. ...SRN HALF OF AZ... ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON / EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SW...AS DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...FLOW OVER NRN PORTIONS OF AZ SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- AND THUS CONVECTION GENERALLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...BELT OF STRONGER ELY FLOW ACROSS SRN AZ MAY ALLOW MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY. HOWEVER...PARTS OF SRN AZ MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS...IF NAM INDICATIONS OF SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION PROVE CORRECT. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 12:35:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 07:35:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507201246.j6KCkl06028601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201245 SWODY1 SPC AC 201243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MQT 15 ENE IMT 50 W RHI 30 N LSE 25 NW MSN 25 SSE MTW 30 NNW GRR 35 SE AZO 35 E IND 30 SW BMG 35 ENE ALN 30 WSW BRL 40 S OMA 25 S MHN 50 NNE VTN 40 NE BKX 20 NE STC 65 NW CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 15 NNE COT 30 NW NIR 20 E CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 25 WSW GBN 25 NNE GBN 40 ENE PHX 20 WSW SAD 15 ESE DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL 25 S CMH 40 ENE CRW 40 SSW MRB 35 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 40 E JCT 30 NNW ACT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20 SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 40 SW BFL 15 N UKI 25 ESE CEC 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 40 ENE 4LW 50 S EKO 30 NW MLF 20 NNE CNY CAG 45 ENE RWL 55 SW GCC 60 SW MLS 70 SSW GGW OLF 20 S ISN MBG 25 SSE ABR 45 E ATY 30 NNW STC 35 WSW HIB 40 ESE INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO AND MID MS VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT SWRN STATES RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER N AND E THIS PERIOD...CONFINING THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS TO ALONG AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. STLT LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK IMPULSES SKIRTING NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...S OF THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS. THE LEAD DISTURBANCE...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH MCS NOW OVER MN/IA...SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO IL/IND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPSTREAM FEATURE...NOW IN SE MT...MOVES E/SE INTO SRN MN/NRN IA. S OF THE RIDGE...HRCN EMILY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY W ACROSS NE MEXICO. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING ENE ACROSS ONTARIO EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS. SHALLOW WARM FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM IA SE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP NEWD TODAY AND WEAKEN. ...ERN SD/NE NEB ESE INTO PARTS OF MN/IA/IL AND IND... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS NOW IN SE MN/WRN WI AND NRN IA WILL REINFORCE WRN PART OF WARM FRONT OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN WI/NW IL LATER THIS MORNING. THE MCS SHOULD WEAKEN FOR A WHILE AS LLJ REDEVELOPS WWD. BUT THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY OVER NRN/CNTRL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ESE/SE MOTION OF ASSOCIATED UPR LEVEL IMPULSE. WHILE DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...THE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INVOF INSTABILITY AXIS/WARM FRONT IN IL. A MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS PARTS OF IND/SW LWR MI. FARTHER W...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING INVOF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER SE SD/NE NEB AND WRN IA AS STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE/LLJ BREAK STRONG CAP. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT N OF THESE BOUNDARIES OVER ERN SD/SRN MN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE NOW IN MT. STORMS FORMING OVER THE SD/MN/NEB/IA REGION SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND 40+ KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT SRN STREAM JET. WITH STRONG HEATING FAVORING HIGH LCLS...LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. NEVERTHELESS...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP IN COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR JUST N OF STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN IA/NE NEB...IF PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY BECOME ORIENTED TO FAVOR STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO IT. THE SD/MN/NEB/IA STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO ESE-MOVING MCSS THAT PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY....WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SEVERE EXTENDING E/SE INTO IL/IND. ...NRN WI/UPR MI... MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER THIS REGION TODAY CLOSE TO MAIN BELT OF WLYS. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT AND POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. ...S TX... ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON NRN FRINGE OF HRCN "EMILY" WILL SPREAD SLOWLY W ACROSS S TX TODAY. THE HRCN HAS HAD A HISTORY OF BEING COMPACT AT NIGHT...WITH MORE EXPANSIVE PERIPHERAL CONVECTION PRESENT DURING THE DAY. THIS TREND MAY BE MAGNIFIED TODAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INLAND. REDEVELOPMENT OF BANDED CONVECTION FARTHER FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF S TX. THE GREATEST SUCH THREAT SHOULD EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN HEATING WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL CAPE/LAPSE RATES...AND INVOF OF TOPOGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED CONFLUENCE BAND/TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE WEAKENING CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ...SRN/CNTRL AZ... ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MTNS OF SE AZ/SW NM...WHERE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL /30 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL ELY FLOW WILL EXIST AT 500 MB ON SRN SIDE OF ELONGATING UPR RIDGE. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT ACTIVITY... VERY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS MERGE AND PROPAGATE W ONTO THE LWR DESERTS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED PULSE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER WRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSE A BRIEF THREAT FOR HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 15:52:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 10:52:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507201604.j6KG49NT031173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201558 SWODY1 SPC AC 201557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MQT 15 ENE IMT 50 W RHI 30 N LSE 25 NW MSN 25 SSE MTW 20 N GRR 40 NE FWA 35 SSE MIE 30 SW BMG 35 ENE ALN 30 SW BRL 25 NW FNB 25 SW BBW 15 W 9V9 25 S RWF 25 S STC 65 NW CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE YUM 35 E BLH 60 WSW PRC 40 SSE PRC 50 WNW SAD 15 ESE DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W COT 15 NNE COT 20 NW NIR 35 NE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 SJT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20 SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ROC 25 SE MFD 20 E UNI 30 S MRB 15 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 30 S RAL 15 NNE SBA 40 ENE SMX 15 S BFL 25 NNE BFL 40 ENE SAC 35 E RBL 30 NE RBL 25 N RBL 20 WNW RBL 20 E UKI 10 ESE UKI 35 NNW UKI 25 ENE ACV 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 55 SE 4LW 35 SW WMC 35 SE BAM 25 SW LND 40 S COD 45 W 3HT 45 SW HVR 30 NW OLF 15 ESE P24 45 WSW JMS 60 NNE ABR 20 N AXN BRD 30 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY INTO WRN OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SOUTHERN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH TEXAS... ...NEB EWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA TO WRN OH VALLEY ... OVERNIGHT MCS IS MAINTAINING WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD WRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS SPREADING NEWD AHEAD OF MCS AND COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN IL INTO IND. OUTFLOW FROM MCS EXTENDS BACK TO THE W INTO NRN NEB AS COLD FRONT OVER NWRN MN TO CENTRAL SD CONTINUES SEWD. STRONG DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED INTO NERN NE/WRN IA IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN THE VEERING PROFILES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERN...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING. ...AZ/SRN CA... SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THRU SERN CA AND SRN AZ. WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER SERN CA/SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THE 20-30 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW S OF LARGE ELONGATED UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS THEY WILL ENCOUNTER THE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GREATEST CONCERN AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE EXTENDED A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WWD INTO SERN CA WHERE A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS. A FEW WILL MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE LIMITING FACTOR HERE FOR SEVERE WILL BE DELAYED HEATING DUE TO PRESENCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE MCS THAT MOVED WWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF CA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO NWRN AZ/EXTREME SRN NV AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...SRN TX... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS N OF HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG. THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS HURRICANE WEAKENS RAPIDLY OVER MOUNTAINS OF NERN MEXICO ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER S TX. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 01:05:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 20:05:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507210116.j6L1GwTH029244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210114 SWODY1 SPC AC 210113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 40 N PHX 65 SSE FLG 40 WSW SOW 15 ENE SAD 35 E DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LRD 35 SSE COT 25 SW NIR 20 ESE CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW HUF 15 WNW DEC 30 WSW MMO 25 SSE CGX 15 S SBN 10 S TOL 30 SSE FDY 40 W DAY 10 WSW HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MCW 20 ENE DSM OMA 10 SSE BUB 35 NNE AIA PHP 35 NNE 9V9 40 NW OTG 10 WSW FRM 35 S MCW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT JCT 45 SSW PRX 10 NNW FSM 35 WSW SZL 20 N TOP 10 WNW CNK 30 W RSL 30 WSW TCC 30 NNW CNM 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 15 SE SAN 30 S RAL 15 NNE SBA 40 ENE SMX 15 S BFL 25 NNE BFL 40 ENE SAC 15 WNW NFL U31 20 SW ELY 45 W U24 20 WNW PUC 45 E VEL 55 WSW LAR 25 NW CYS 10 SW BFF 30 S CDR 30 S RAP 40 N PHP 55 NE PIR 35 NNW ATY 20 S AXN BRD 30 ENE ELO ...CONT... 20 NNW ROC 30 SSW CAK 20 SW PKB 20 SSE CHO 25 E SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMINDER OF TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SD AND NEB INTO WRN IA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IL INTO IN AND WRN OH.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT OVER SERN AZ.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT OVER EXTREME SRN TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS NWRN WI AND SWRN MN...WWD THRU SD THEN TURNING NWWD ACROSS SERN AND N CENTRAL MT. WNWLY FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...T.S. EMILY CONTINUES WWD INTO THE MEXICAN ROCKIES. REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE NOAA TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. ...PARTS OF SRN SD/NRN NEB INTO WRN IA... FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SEWD OUT OF SWRN SD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL MCS THAT COULD TRACK ESEWD POSSIBLY REACHING AREAS LIKE OMAHA AND WRN DES MOINES BY 21/12Z. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPR 70S AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY POOLED OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA. LATEST RUC MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SWRN IA ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...50 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS ID/WY WHERE ITS EXIT REGION IS LOCATED OVER THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND OVER SERN SD/NERN NEB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AIDING IN ENHANCING UVVS WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. LATEST 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9C/KM AND MLCAPE OF 4000 J/KM INDICATING THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...PARTS OF IL/IN AND NWRN OH... CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MOVING ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER SERN LOWER MI ATTM. WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO LAST UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS. MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG WHERE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS LOCATED...THEN ACTIVITY WILL RUN INTO LOWER DEW POINTS/LESSER INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT. ...SERN AZ... THREAT FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THRU AREA WITH LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ACTIVITY COULD STILL PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR SO. ...EXTREME SRN TX... THERE CONTINUES TO BE SCATTERED BANDS OF CONVECTION ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF T.S. EMILY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA...SO THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES THRU THE REMINDER OF TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 05:20:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 00:20:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507210532.j6L5W2K1011260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210530 SWODY1 SPC AC 210528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FRM 50 SE RST 30 WNW RFD 45 S CGX IND 40 N BWG 30 WNW HOP 25 W PAH 45 SW BLV 45 S UIN 20 NE P35 50 ESE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 SW SPW 25 S FRM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HON 20 S MBG 35 WNW MBG 15 ENE BIS 40 S DVL 25 NNW FAR 40 NNW AXN 25 SE AXN 30 WNW RWF 25 ENE BKX 20 NNE HON. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 25 WNW TUS 35 WSW SAD 40 S SAD 20 ESE DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LGB BFL 25 ESE MER 30 E SAC 45 ESE RBL 35 SSW RBL 45 NW SFO ...CONT... 45 S AST OLM 25 E SEA 25 N EAT 30 E EPH 25 SE ALW 35 SSE BKE 30 SSW BOI 40 SSW TWF 35 ESE EVW 30 S RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NE CPR 55 NNW REJ 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LVS 25 SE ROW 25 WNW MAF 40 SSE BGS 25 WNW BWD 10 E SEP 10 SSE DAL 35 NNW PRX 25 WSW FSM 30 WNW HRO 10 NW SGF 50 SSW SZL 25 ESE TOP 10 ENE MHK 25 N RSL 50 NNW GCK 15 SSW LAA 25 ENE RTN 45 SSE LVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CMX 55 W RHI 20 NNE VOK 35 WNW MKE 25 NNW AZO 70 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CAR 25 E 3B1 25 E BML 20 SE MPV 20 WSW UCA 20 E ELM 35 NNE CXY 15 WNW ILG 15 S ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM IA SEWD ACROSS IL INTO PARTS OF INDIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SERN ND AND NERN SD INTO W CENTRAL MN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SERN AZ.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CHALLENGE FOR THIS OUTLOOK IS ESTIMATING POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED SEVERE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL OVERNIGHT MCS OVER NERN NEB INTO WRN IA...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ORIENTING A MORE NWLY FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ALSO...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD/EWD INTO NWRN CA AND WRN ORE TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF IA SEWD INTO IL AND INDIANA... SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21/03Z INDICATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT DEMARCATION EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB EWD THRU CENTRAL IA SEWD INTO E CENTRAL IL. THIS IS ALSO THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS INDICATING THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THIS BOUNDARY GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. NAM/ETA GIVES A VERY STRONG SIGNAL THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS IA AND IL THRU THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG. THUS...WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS IA WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ...PARTS OF SERN ND/NERN SD INTO W CENTRAL MN... MODELS HINT AT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWD ACROSS WRN SD. WOULD EXPECT NRN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEB/IA OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THIS AREA UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW SRN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXTEND FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO E CENTRAL ND PLACING AREA UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS NRN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY PRODUCING ELEVATED STORMS SUPPORTED BY 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ...SERN AREA OF AZ... MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS PER LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REMNANTS OF HRCN EMILY DECAYING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 30-40 DEGREES F WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THUS...WOULD EXPECT WITH 40 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AS INDICATED USING THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...N CENTRAL AREAS OF CA INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF OREGON... MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD OVER NWRN CA INTO WRN OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE TROUGH NEWD INTO SERN WA TONIGHT. SOME DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UVVS AS WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING EXTENDING SSWWD THRU SWRN ORE. MODELS SHOW CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG HEATING WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF MICROBURSTS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 12:41:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 07:41:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507211253.j6LCrma3031283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211251 SWODY1 SPC AC 211249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 40 WNW PHX 40 SW SOW 40 ENE SAD 45 ESE DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 10 NW BJI 30 ESE BRD 30 S EAU 25 WNW OSH 30 NNW MKG 15 S HTL 70 SE OSC 50 WNW CLE 40 WSW DAY 30 ENE BWG 40 WSW HOP 30 N POF 45 ENE COU 40 NNE FNB 30 SSE BBW 20 WNW AIA 15 ESE 81V 55 SE GDV 65 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AST OLM 25 E SEA 25 N EAT 30 E EPH 25 SE ALW 35 SSE BKE 30 SSW BOI 40 SSW TWF 15 ESE EVW 30 SSE RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NE CPR 20 S 4BQ 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 10 W LGB 35 WSW PMD 40 WSW BFL 30 NNE PRB 10 NE SAC 50 NW SAC 40 SE UKI 45 NW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LVS 25 SE ROW 25 WNW MAF 40 SSE BGS 25 WNW BWD 10 E SEP 10 SSE DAL 35 NNW PRX 25 WSW FSM 30 WNW HRO 10 NW SGF 50 SSW SZL 25 ESE TOP 10 ENE MHK 25 N RSL 50 NNW GCK 15 SSW LAA 25 ENE RTN 45 SSE LVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CAR 25 E 3B1 25 E BML 20 SE MPV 20 WSW UCA 20 E ELM 35 NNE CXY 15 WNW ILG 15 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CMX RHI 35 NW GRB 10 NNW MBL 35 N HTL 30 ESE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLNS SE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT WRN/CNTRL U.S. RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY N ACROSS THE NRN RCKYS BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY AS LOW OFF THE NRN CA CST LIFTS NE INTO WRN ORE. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SKIRTING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE UPR RIDGE THAT LIKELY WILL AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. AT LWR LEVELS...A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SE ACROSS MI/WI AND THE MID MS VLY...WHILE WRN PART OF SAME FEATURE REFORMS N AS A WARM FRONT OVER NEB AND THE DAKS. BUT SURFACE PATTERN LIKELY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LEFT BY ONGOING AND FUTURE MCSS. ...IA/SRN WI ESE INTO SRN IL/IND/LWR MI... IA/SRN MN MCS HAS A WELL-DEFINED EMBEDDED MCV AND PRESSURE FALL CENTER. AREA VAD AND PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-50 KT WLY FLOW THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP /4 KM/ LAYER ON S SIDE OF MCV... SUGGESTING THAT SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR FACTOR GOVERNING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DOWNSTREAM INTO LWR MI AND THE OH VLY. WITH SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT REMAINING WELL N ACROSS WI/MI THROUGH THE DAY...AND HEATING LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF IT...NRN PART OF THE MN/IA COMPLEX COULD AFFECT PARTS OF WI/MI WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD. MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ON THE FRONT ITSELF...WHERE PROXIMITY TO MAIN BAND OF WLYS WILL YIELD 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR. THIS COULD COMPENSATE FOR RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY OVER CNTRL MI AND YIELD STRONG WINDS IN THAT AREA. GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND AND THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 2500 J/KG. SRN PART OF MN/IA COMPLEX SHOULD REACH THESE AREAS AT OR FOLLOWING MAX HEATING...THEREBY ENHANCING SEVERE WIND AND POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT. ...FAR ERN MT ESE INTO DAKS/NEB/IA... A SERIES DISTURBANCES ARE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SKIRTING NRN SIDE OF UPR RIDGE. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING REGION ALONG MODERATE /40-50 KT/ WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WWD N OF WEAK WARM FRONT... SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND MAY DEVELOP INVOF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN NRN NEB/SRN SD...AND/OR INVOF INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN THIS REGION WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG BENEATH A STRONG CAP. ADDITIONAL SUBSTANTIAL STORMS...MOST LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...MAY FORM LATE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN...DOWNSTREAM FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE...HIGH WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE THAT COULD CONTINUE SE INTO IA EARLY FRIDAY. ...SRN AZ... LITTLE CHANGE IN MID/UPR LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER AZ TODAY ...DESPITE EXPANSION OF UPR RIDGE. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE MOIST IN PLACES GIVEN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN NW MEXICO...LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE FROM "EMILY" MORE DRASTICALLY ALTERS CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. 25-30 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON S SIDE OF RIDGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FAVOR W/WSW PROPAGATION OF DIURNAL STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CNTRL/SE AZ. VERY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NRN CA/INTERIOR ORE AND SRN WA... IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME LIFTING N ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL CA ATTM SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS DEEP SSWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF OFFSHORE LOW. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ...COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT ...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND 40+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO BANDS AND MAY PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE WINDS. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 16:26:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 11:26:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507211638.j6LGcZ8Y018965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211625 SWODY1 SPC AC 211623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLE 15 NNW CMH 35 S SDF HOP 25 SE CGI 60 SSW STL 25 S IRK 45 NNE FNB 15 SSW BBW 30 SE AIA 45 NE DGW 40 N 81V 35 S SDY 45 E ISN 30 E MOT 50 S FAR 35 E EAU 15 ENE MBL 60 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 65 WNW GBN 45 WSW PRC 25 SW FLG 25 S INW 40 SSE SOW 15 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 ESE RAL 15 WSW PMD VBG ...CONT... 20 SSW HQM 50 WSW 4OM 50 E 63S 10 WNW FCA 45 N 3DU 20 WSW DLN 20 ENE PIH 25 E EVW 30 SSE RKS 10 SSW RWL 55 NNE CPR 10 NNE MLS 65 N OLF ...CONT... 25 ENE ELO 50 NW IWD 15 NE IWD 10 SW MQT 35 NNW PLN 65 ENE APN ...CONT... 35 S HUL 20 W BGR 20 S RUT 25 WNW MSV 15 NE ABE 25 NE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW TCC 30 NW HOB 25 WNW MAF 40 SSE BGS 25 WNW BWD 10 E SEP 10 SSE DAL 20 WNW PRX 25 NNW PGO 15 NNE FYV 20 NW UMN 30 NNW JLN 30 SSE EMP 25 SSE SLN 30 WSW RSL 50 NNW GCK 15 SSW LAA 15 NNW CAO 35 SW TCC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ... ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TWO DISTURBANCES...ONE LOCATED IN FAR NE MT AND ONE LOCATED IN NE WY. ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN SE MT EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN IA. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...IT APPEARS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS IN AREAS WITH ENHANCED INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD INTO NRN NEB THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT INTO ERN NEB AND IA. ...UPPER MIDWEST/OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN IA AND SRN MN. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT ESEWD TODAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SERN WI AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LINE HAS CAUSED STABILIZATION IN SRN WI AND THIS MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THERE LATER TODAY. SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION...ACROSS ERN AND SRN IL...IND AND NRN KY...STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 4000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...AZ... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WHITE MTNS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE WSWWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED MULTICELL STORMS. LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL RESULT IN A ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ...ORE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A LARGE BAND OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO ORE TODAY SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS STORMS INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ORE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 00:58:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 19:58:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507220110.j6M1A8RI027057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220107 SWODY1 SPC AC 220106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE MOT 40 W GFK 40 SSE FAR 25 W RWF 10 WNW SPW 40 NNE OMA 20 NNW LNK 20 WNW BBW 35 ESE CDR 50 WSW RAP 40 WNW REJ 30 NW P24 60 ENE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CLE 30 NNW ZZV 55 E LUK 30 WNW LEX 35 WNW SDF 40 SSW BMG 25 WSW MTO 15 S PIA 35 E MLI 10 ESE CGX 10 SSE GRR 30 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 50 NW IWD 15 NE IWD 10 SW MQT 35 NNW PLN 65 ENE APN ...CONT... 35 S HUL 20 W BGR 20 S RUT 25 WNW MSV 15 NE ABE 25 NE NEL ...CONT... CZZ 15 ESE RAL 15 WSW PMD VBG ...CONT... 30 SSW ONP 30 WNW DLS 30 SSE EPH 35 S S06 45 SW 3DU 20 WSW DLN 20 ENE PIH 25 E EVW 30 SSE RKS 10 SSW RWL 55 NNE CPR 10 NNE MLS 65 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE LVS 25 S ROW 30 NW FST 60 NNE P07 35 ESE SJT 20 SE BWD 10 SSE DAL 20 WNW PRX 30 ENE MKO 25 NNE CNU 30 SW MHK 45 N RSL 30 NNE GLD 30 SE LIC TAD 15 SE LVS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS FROM SRN CA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RIDGE HAS EXTENDED NNWWD DURING THE DAY INTO THE NRN PLATEAU REGION ENHANCING NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...ONE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE NWRN CA COAST SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED AT THIS TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS. QUITE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTEND FROM SERN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO IL AND IA...AND SEVERAL ARE A RESULT OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. ...SERN LOWER MI INTO WRN/CENTRAL OH/INDIANA/E CENTRAL IL... MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD INTO NERN IL THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH INTO CENTRAL IL. MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL OH TO 3500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL IL. LATEST RAOB FROM KILN SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER 3KM...AS WELL AS CENTRAL IL... WITH VALUES BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5C/KM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECREASE IN INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. ...NRN PLAINS... CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SWWD FROM S CENTRAL CANADA INTO E CENTRAL WY. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN ND INTO NWRN IA WHICH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG. NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 35-45 KT AND 60-70 KT...RESPECTIVELY EXTENDS FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NWRN MN PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ACROSS THE AREA. 23Z RUC MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE BRN SHEAR VALUES AROUND 100 AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ERN PARTS OF THE ND/SD BORDER. THUS...SUPERCELLS A REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST THRU THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...PARTS OF SRN AZ... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8.5C/KM. A FEW STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 05:38:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 00:38:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507220550.j6M5okWm024052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220548 SWODY1 SPC AC 220547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM AUG 20 ENE EEN 25 ENE MSV 35 ESE IPT 15 NE PSB 25 ENE FKL 20 WNW JHW 25 NW BUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW LUK 55 ESE LUK 25 SE HTS 25 ESE 5I3 15 ESE TRI 15 NW HSS 15 WSW CSV 50 SW BNA 40 S PAH 15 N PAH 20 W EVV 50 WSW LUK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RRT 35 SW BRD 25 NNW MKT 15 WNW MCW 40 ESE FOD 40 E OMA 25 SSW SUX 30 WSW YKN 40 WSW 9V9 40 SSE PHP 60 NNE DGW 35 WSW GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 NW BIL 25 NE LWT 55 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW MLC 20 ENE TUL 20 SW TOP 30 SSE BIE 10 NNE GRI 30 WNW BBW 60 ENE SNY 30 S AKO 30 SW LHX 50 WSW TCC 40 W ROW 20 W ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 WNW SVE 30 SSE MFR 30 N 4BK ...CONT... 35 N ONP 45 NNW PDX 10 N SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 35 N RST 25 ESE MLI 25 SSW BMI 25 NW HUF IND 25 ESE MIE 30 W FDY 35 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO/TN VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THRU THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. MAIN FEATURES TO CONCENTRATE ON ARE THE PAIR OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVEL FROM WRN MT AND WRN OREGON NEWD AND EWD THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS EVENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO THRU THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY... OVERNIGHT MCS OCCURRING OVER INDIANA INTO E CENTRAL/SERN IL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/JUST S OF THE OHIO RIVER BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY SUBSIDENT COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO NRN MIDDLE AND NERN TN. MLCAPES ARE 2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE MCS SUPPORTING CONTINUAL ACCESS TO VERY WARM MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LATER THIS MORNING...BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD AND SWWD INTO PARTS OF AR...MS AND AL WHERE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ...NERN U.S... MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. EXIT REGION OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND OVER THE NERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS MORNING PLACING DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON ENHANCING UVVS. MODELS SHOW THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S /WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE NAM/ BUT WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS MUCAPES PROJECTED TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN PLAINS... MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE NWRN U.S. NEWD AND EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON THEN THRU THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT FROM WRN KS NWD INTO CENTRAL SD AND S CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BRANCH EXTENDING TOWARDS NWRN SD AND SERN MT. MEANWHILE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS LARGE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENHANCE UVVS ALONG WARM FRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY MOVING NWD THRU THE DAKOTAS. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MUCAPE WILL BE AROUND 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 KT ACROSS THE AREA. CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE MCS IN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MODELS SHOW THAT HELICITY VALUES IN THE LOWEST 1KM WILL BE 250...AND IN THE LOWEST 3KM OVER 400 INDICATING ROTATING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 23/06Z AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PROBABILITIES TO A POINT WHERE ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ...ARN AREAS OF AZ... MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WHICH HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN AREAS OF MEXICO. ELY FLOW OF 20-30 KT WILL AGAIN BE OVER SRN AZ WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 12:43:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 07:43:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507221255.j6MCtPcD000696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221252 SWODY1 SPC AC 221250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM AUG 20 ENE EEN 25 ENE MSV 35 ESE IPT 15 NE PSB 25 ENE FKL 20 WNW JHW 25 NW BUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S AST 35 NE AST 10 N SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 WNW SVE 30 SSE MFR 30 N 4BK ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 35 N RST 25 ESE MLI 25 SSW BMI 15 SW HUF 35 SE IND 20 NW DAY 45 W CLE ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW MLC 20 ENE TUL 30 ESE MHK 25 SSW BIE 10 NNE GRI 30 WNW BBW 60 ENE SNY 30 S AKO 30 SW LHX 50 WSW TCC 40 W ROW 20 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 15 WSW FAR 55 ENE ABR 50 NW PIR 20 ESE RAP 60 SSE 81V 55 N DGW SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 30 NW WEY 55 NE SUN 35 NW SUN 35 ESE BKE 40 N ALW 35 NE GEG 55 NNW 3TH 30 NW GTF 25 ENE LWT 55 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS... ...NORTHEAST... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SSEWD ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTING ABUNDANT AFTERNOON HEATING. COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...GIVEN RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM H85 TO JUST UNDER H5 AT PIT AND BUF THIS MORNING. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES...EXPECT SURFACE CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OTHER LOCAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS UNDER INCREASING WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS... MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN ORE. OTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCES WHERE LIFTING MORE NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO HANDLE THESE SYSTEMS WELL AND BRING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVES NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WITH TRAILING STRONG SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD FOCUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HEATING SUPPORTS LARGE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AS STRONGEST SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE PAC NW...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT AND OVERSPREAD NERN ORE/NRN ID INTO CENTRAL MT BY 21Z. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BOTH UVV AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE STORM INTENSITIES/COVERAGE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NRN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH /WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ MAY ALLOW SURFACE BASED STORMS TO FORM/PERSIST AS THEY OVERSPREAD LOWER ELEVATIONS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE NEAR SUNSET OVER ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AS STRONG SSELY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED...WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING ENEWD ALONG NOSE OF VEERING LLJ OVERNIGHT. ...MID SOUTH REGION... OVERNIGHT MCS MOVING ACROSS WRN KY/MIDDLE TN HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KT WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES. HOWEVER... DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF MECHANISM TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY... 09Z RUC SUGGESTS CAPPING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER SERN SD/FAR NERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN LATER TODAY NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE. HOWEVER...RUC APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS BOUNDARY LAYER AND 12Z OAX SOUNDING EXHIBITS STRONGER CAPPING THAN PROGGED BY THE 09Z RUC. WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINING WELL NW OF THIS REGION AND STRENGTH OF CAP...EXPECT SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO FORM WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 16:27:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 11:27:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507221638.j6MGcqVG021901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221630 SWODY1 SPC AC 221628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM 15 NNW PWM 20 E ORH 10 WNW ILG 25 WNW HGR 20 SSW BFD 15 WNW ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 15 N HRO 30 E SGF 50 N SGF 25 NE EMP 20 SE CNK 35 N BUB 9V9 40 SSW PIR 15 NNW BFF 30 NE DEN 25 SW DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 25 SSE PUB 40 SW CAO 35 SW TCC 55 WNW CNM 20 W ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 SE MHS 10 NNE MFR 10 SSW EUG 40 SE OLM 25 NNE SEA 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 45 NW HIB 40 ENE STC 45 NW EAU 10 ESE AUW 15 ENE OSH 10 SSE JVL 15 S SPI 15 W SLO 25 ENE MDH 25 ESE OWB 15 W LEX 35 NE DAY 45 WNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 45 NE JMS 40 SSW JMS 25 ESE MBG 25 WNW RAP 20 WSW GCC SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 15 N WEY 35 N IDA 35 NW SUN 40 E BKE 40 WNW PUW 50 NE 63S 30 NW CTB 45 NW LWT 40 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON TO ND OVERNIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...NE STATES... A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WV TO WRN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER AND A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD BREAKS ARE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S...THE 12Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INVOF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO ND TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER WRN ORE THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN MT...A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY SURVIVING AND MOVING EWD FROM E/SE MT INTO ND. THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THOUGH THE LATTER MAY BE OVERCOME BY STRONG ASCENT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ON THE NERN FRINGE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LATE TONIGHT. ...MID MO VALLEY... A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN A NW-SE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE SD/WRN IA/ERN NEB. THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN SD AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS FORM...VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SWD MOVING SUPERCELLS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 16:39:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 11:39:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507221651.j6MGpSQI029145@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221646 SWODY1 SPC AC 221644 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 45 NE JMS 40 SSW JMS 25 ESE MBG 25 WNW RAP 20 WSW GCC SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 15 N WEY 35 N IDA 35 NW SUN 40 E BKE 40 WNW PUW 50 NE 63S 30 NW CTB 45 NW LWT 40 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM 15 NNW PWM 20 E ORH 10 WNW ILG 25 WNW HGR 20 SSW BFD 15 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 15 N HRO 30 E SGF 50 N SGF 25 NE EMP 20 SE CNK 35 N BUB 9V9 40 SSW PIR 15 NNW BFF 30 NE DEN 25 SW DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 25 SSE PUB 40 SW CAO 35 SW TCC 55 WNW CNM 20 W ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 SE MHS 10 NNE MFR 10 SSW EUG 40 SE OLM 25 NNE SEA 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 45 NW HIB 40 ENE STC 45 NW EAU 10 ESE AUW 15 ENE OSH 10 SSE JVL 15 S SPI 15 W SLO 25 ENE MDH 25 ESE OWB 15 W LEX 35 NE DAY 45 WNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON TO ND OVERNIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...NE STATES... A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WV TO WRN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER AND A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD BREAKS ARE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S...THE 12Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INVOF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO ND TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER WRN ORE THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN MT...A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY SURVIVING AND MOVING EWD FROM E/SE MT INTO ND. THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THOUGH THE LATTER MAY BE OVERCOME BY STRONG ASCENT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ON THE NERN FRINGE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LATE TONIGHT. ...MID MO VALLEY... A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN A NW-SE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE SD/WRN IA/ERN NEB. THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN SD AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS FORM...VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SWD MOVING SUPERCELLS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 20:04:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 15:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507222016.j6MKGRZc031378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222013 SWODY1 SPC AC 222011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 45 NE JMS 40 SSW JMS 25 ESE MBG 25 WNW RAP 20 WSW GCC SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 15 N WEY 35 N IDA 35 NW SUN 40 E BKE 40 WNW PUW 50 NE 63S 30 NW CTB 45 NW LWT 40 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW EPM 15 NNW PWM 25 SW BOS 20 W TTN 25 SSE BWI 45 SSW MRB 20 SSW BFD 30 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 20 SSW UMN 30 N UMN 40 ENE CNU EMP 20 SE CNK 35 N BUB 9V9 40 SSW PIR 25 SSE BFF 30 NE DEN 25 SW DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 25 SSE PUB 40 SW CAO 35 SW TCC 55 WNW CNM 20 W ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 SE MHS 10 NNE MFR 10 SSW EUG 40 SE OLM 25 NNE SEA 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 45 NW HIB 40 ENE STC 45 NW EAU 10 ESE AUW 15 ENE OSH 10 SSE JVL 15 S SPI 15 W SLO 25 ENE MDH 25 ESE OWB 15 W LEX 35 NE DAY 45 WNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EWD TO ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN STATES... ...MID ATLANTIC TO NE STATES... AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING... WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG FROM VA TO WRN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NOW OVER QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NRN NY INTO ME...WITH A SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED SHEAR OVER SRN PA TO VA WITH A COUPLE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO NE STATES IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ...MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO ND TONIGHT... UPPER TROUGH...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS WA...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE SWRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND MT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD FROM SRN ID WITH A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ID INTO MT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVELS BEING RELATIVELY DRY... SUGGESTING THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE INITIAL STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LATER TONIGHT. ...MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND/OR MCV/S TRACKING SEWD OVER THE MID-LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WITH OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM ERN SD SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB TO NWRN AND SERN MO. AIR MASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/KG/ THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT... ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY OVER THE MID MO VALLEY FROM ERN SD TO NERN KS/NWRN MO WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THESE AREAS. ...PARTS OF NRN TO SE TX... REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WSWWD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW LOCATED OVER EAST TX...WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED WSWWD MOTION...WITH THESE STORMS MOVING INTO PARTS OF NRN TO SE TX. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SRN NV NWD ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT TO ERN ID COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN NV WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL... THOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 00:54:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 19:54:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507230106.j6N16pnH014679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230104 SWODY1 SPC AC 230103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL 45 SSW GFK 45 ENE ABR 35 WNW HON 15 WNW PHP 30 SSE 81V 30 E WRL 50 E WEY 10 SSW DLN 40 S 3DU 60 SE FCA 20 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 30 WNW EDW 40 E FAT 45 E TVL 40 WNW LOL 70 S BNO 55 NNW BNO 10 NNW YKM 35 NW EAT 65 NW 4OM ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 40 ENE BJI 40 NE BRD 45 NE MSP 30 NE RST 40 NE ALO 25 SE CID 35 NW STL 30 WNW MDH 20 SW OWB 35 ENE BWG 20 SW JKL 20 WNW PKB 10 WNW ROC ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 20 SSW UMN 30 N UMN 35 SSE OJC 15 ENE TOP 15 SSE BIE 35 N BUB VTN 55 E CDR 25 SSE BFF 35 ENE FCL 15 W DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 15 NNE TAD 10 NE LVS 25 ESE ABQ 45 NW TCS 55 ESE DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL MT INTO THE DAKOTAS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NWRN U.S. WITH STRONG RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THRU THE NERN U.S. RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING NWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL BE SHIFTING EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING WLY FLOW OVER MT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. CURRENTLY...TWO SEPARATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NWRN U.S. TROUGH. ONE IS MOVING NEWD INTO CENTRAL MT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE SECOND IS OVER S CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE TWO ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PHASE TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN MCS OVER ERN MT INTO ND. ...CENTRAL MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN THRU NERN MT AND SERN ND AND CENTRAL MN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WARM /GREATER THAN 14C/ TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB INTO SERN MT. THIS MAY WEAKEN A BIT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVEL EWD ACROSS MT. LATEST RUC MODEL DEVELOPS UVVS OVER NERN MT INTO SWRN ND LATER TONIGHT WHERE THERMODYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG RUNNING ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET 40-45 KT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING UVVS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...NERN U.S... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL ME SWWD THRU CENTRAL MA INTO SWRN PA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THRU PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING NEXT FEW HOURS. REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS WELL...BUT DECREASING THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 05:31:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 00:31:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507230543.j6N5hL73025347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230540 SWODY1 SPC AC 230539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MTC 15 NE JXN 30 WNW BEH 40 ENE DBQ 30 NNE MCW 20 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 N MBG 50 NNE BIS 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 10 N BYI 55 SSW 27U 50 NW S06 25 W FCA 10 WNW 3DU 15 SW 3HT 70 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WNW SDY 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 45 SSE P07 50 SE MAF 30 WNW ABI 35 ENE DAL 15 WNW FSM 50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE ALM 45 WSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE 25 NW CMH 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI 15 NW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN STORM TRACK TAKES A SHIFT SWD AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. DOMINANT AND PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST CREATING THE ZONAL FLOW. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING ASPECTS IN THE STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE NAM SEEMS TO OVERFORECAST THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO MN/WI WITH SPEEDS OF 50-60 KT. THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND HAS CREATED WIND PROFILES AND HODOGRAPHS MORE LIKE APRIL AND MAY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR THE NAMKF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH FORECAST 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EWD THRU N CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO SERN SD BY 24/12Z. ANALYSIS OF H7 TEMPERATURES SHOW THAT STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD WITH 16C TEMPERATURES NOSING INTO SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL SD EWD/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 24/00Z ENHANCING PRESSURE FALLS/UVVS ACROSS CENTRAL MN ALONG SRN EDGES MID LEVEL 60-70 KT FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL PUSH EWD BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN CLUSTERS...THEN A LINE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WARM...VERY MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF INDICATE MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ENHANCED BY THE TRANSFER OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM ON SRN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION. WITH LOW LEVEL JET COUPLING WITH SRN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL FLOW...HAVE INCLUDED A LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WI WHERE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN LINE ALONG WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU NRN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...ERN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN WEAK ELY FLOW AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG SERIES OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 3000-4000 J/KG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LEVEL RH VALUES OF 50-60 PERCENT. THUS...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SRN PARTS OF TX... MODELS SHOW WEAK ELY WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN TX LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO REACH TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH THE WAVE ENHANCING UVVS FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8C/KM FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY. ...SRN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS HEATING STEEPENS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...SOME ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM PARTS OF AZ/NM NWD INTO UT AND NV. ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 12:42:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 07:42:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507231254.j6NCsMXf025057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231252 SWODY1 SPC AC 231250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE RHI GRB 25 NW MKE 10 ESE LNR 10 ESE MKT 55 SW AXN 40 SE FAR 25 SSW BJI 15 SW HIB 20 NE RHI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DTW 30 SW SBN 25 NNE MLI 30 S MKT 20 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 N MBG 55 NE BIS 80 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 10 N BYI 30 SE BTM 15 SW 3HT 70 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WNW SDY 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... CLE 25 N CMH 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI 15 NW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HOB 25 WSW ABI 50 ESE SPS 30 NW FSM 55 SSW SZL 15 WSW P35 25 S OLU 10 S BBW 50 E LIC 40 E TCC 35 SE HOB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... COMPLEX FORECAST AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OVERRIDE A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TIGHTEN HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEADING IMPULSE NOW SPREADING TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS LATE TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM SERN ND ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN/SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCSS NOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN SD AND NEAR THE IA/WI/MN BORDER REGION SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES...WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS NERN SD/W-CENTRAL MN AT 13Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE MID MORNING BY AREAS/OFFICES DOWNSTREAM...GIVEN AMOUNT OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED TRACK NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. CAPPING WILL WEAKEN WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND COMPLEX COULD SURGE ESEWD WITH AN INCREASED WIND THREAT /POSSIBLY A LARGE BOW ECHO/ IF IT CAN REMAIN ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALONG FAVORABLE NERN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING/H7 THERMAL RIDGE AND COULD MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG NOSE OF VEERING SWLY LLJ. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT ALONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER FAR ERN ND/NERN SD/WRN MN...WHERE COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD BREAK CAP ALONG WRN EDGE OF H7 THERMAL RIDGE. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEGREE OF SHEAR...WITH QUICK EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD UPWARDS INTO A MCS THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREAD THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THIS MCS REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK...ANOTHER BOW ECHO COULD EVOLVE FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 16:24:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:24:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507231636.j6NGaChm005931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231634 SWODY1 SPC AC 231632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE IWD 30 NNW GRB 15 NW OSH 20 S VOK 15 WSW MSP 40 ENE ATY 40 SE FAR 25 SW BJI 10 S HIB 30 SE IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CMX 40 ESE MQT 35 WSW APN 30 S OSC 30 N DTW 35 SSW JXN 25 SW BEH 25 NNE DBQ 30 S MKT 25 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 ESE Y22 45 W BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LAX 30 ESE BFL 40 E FAT 65 NE MER 30 SSE NFL 50 NE EKO 35 ESE BYI 15 S IDA 20 NE IDA 10 ENE MQM 35 ENE DLN 20 SE BZN BIL 65 WNW MLS 40 S GGW 50 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 40 SSE FDY 35 ENE LUK 35 SE LEX 45 SE LOZ 25 NE TRI 10 E PSK 40 ENE SSU 20 WNW NHK 20 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BHB 15 N LCI 20 SSW ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ABI 10 SE OKC 45 SSW TUL 55 SSW SZL 25 SE DSM 45 E SUX 40 E BUB 25 ENE IML 50 NE LAA 40 N CAO 45 WSW TCC 55 E 4CR ROW 10 NNE HOB 50 NNW ABI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ND TO LOWER MI THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...WI/MN TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT... A BOW ECHO WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS IS MOVING INTO W CENTRAL WI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL WI...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MCS...THUS LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD INTO NW ND...AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL SD AT THE INTERSECTION OF A REMNANT LEE TROUGH AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM THE MN/WI MCS. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD/ENEWD INTO MN TONIGHT AS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ALONG THE RETREATING BOUNDARY BY LATE TODAY...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN NE SD/WRN MN AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALIZED ASCENT ERODE THE STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MN/WI BY TONIGHT. FARTHER N...EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MN MCS WILL TEND TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. STILL...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ND...SPREADING EWD INTO ERN ND THIS EVENING AND NW MN TONIGHT. SOME OF THE INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EVOLVE FROM THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT IS NOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL ND. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 04:02:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 23:02:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507240414.j6O4Eivc012679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232023 SWODY1 SPC AC 232021 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE IWD 30 NNW GRB 15 NW OSH 20 S VOK 15 WSW MSP 40 ENE ATY 40 SE FAR 25 SW BJI 10 S HIB 30 SE IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CMX 40 ESE MQT 35 WSW APN 45 S OSC 30 N DTW 35 WNW FWA 30 SSE MMO 25 NNE DBQ 30 S MKT 25 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 ESE Y22 45 W BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LAX 30 ESE BFL 40 E FAT 65 NE MER 30 SSE NFL 50 NE EKO 35 ESE BYI 15 S IDA 20 NE IDA 10 ENE MQM 35 ENE DLN 20 SE BZN 20 E BIL 20 S MLS 25 N GDV 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 25 ESE DTW 40 SSE FDY 35 ENE LUK 35 SE LEX 45 SE LOZ 25 NE TRI 10 E PSK 40 ENE SSU 20 WNW NHK 20 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BHB 15 N LCI 20 SSW ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ABI 15 WSW OKC 25 SW BVO 55 SSW SZL 25 SE DSM 45 E SUX 40 E BUB 25 ENE IML 50 NE LAA 40 N CAO 45 WSW TCC 55 E 4CR ROW 10 NNE HOB 50 NNW ABI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NRN/CENTRAL WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT... ONE STRONG TO SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND MCS TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW SSEWD THROUGH WRN ND TO A SECOND LOW OVER WRN SD...WHILE A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM SD INTO ERN CO/NERN NM. STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 3500-5000 J/KG/ WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE SD SURFACE LOW SEWD ACROSS IA TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADA LOW SEWD ACROSS NRN MN TO NRN WI...WITH A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING E-W ACROSS MN INTO SD/ND LEFT OVER FROM CURRENT MCS/BOW ECHO MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WI. WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO...NOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL WI...SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WI NEAR LAKE MI. NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOW...WITH A SEWD TURN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO PARTS OF NRN IL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS MN...PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING MCS IS RESULTING IN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUPPORTING MOISTURE ADVECTION NWWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS FROM CENTRAL MN WWD TO NERN SD/PARTS OF ND BENEATH STRONG WARMING IN MID LEVELS IS EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THIS AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA PER 18Z ABR/20Z MPX SOUNDINGS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN SRN CANADA AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN ND INTO SRN MANITOBA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE. STRONG CAP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...THEN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS SERN ND/NERN SD AND CENTRAL MN. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS ND/NERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IMPINGING ON A WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. 18Z NAM SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS MN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50+ KT THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL KEEP THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ..PETERS.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 05:12:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 00:12:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507240524.j6O5OUB3029562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240522 SWODY1 SPC AC 240521 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CYS 10 SSE CPR 50 SE BIL 60 W MLS 35 NE MLS 65 NE 4BQ 55 NNE PHP 40 NW HON 35 NE BKX 25 NE MKT 30 WSW RST 50 ESE FOD HSI IML 40 N CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ART 25 S ABE 20 N NHK 40 W RIC 20 NNE SSU 30 SSE UNI 30 E DAY 40 SSE CGX 25 SW MKE 55 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 35 ESE BAM 25 WNW TWF 25 NW LND 55 ENE JAC 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 15 ENE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ECG 40 WSW BLF 15 ESE LEX 30 E MVN 10 SSW JEF 15 N HUT 25 SE EHA AMA 40 S CDS 40 S ADM 30 NNE PRX 55 ENE PBF 20 S HSV 25 SSW AHN 30 ENE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF MD/VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH CENTER OF MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL B.C. IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NEAR 42N/132W...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. IN THE NE...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND IN WAKE OF TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY W OF MSP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS NRN WI...AND EVENTUALLY MORE ESEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND INTO LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE N-S ORIENTED WHILE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE W...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD OVER NERN WY/SERN MT...PRIOR TO GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO SWRN SD/NWRN NEB BY 25/12Z. ...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF MD/VA... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER ERN WI EWD INTO THE UP AND LOWER MI BY 24/12Z. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED INITIALLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME LATER THIS MORNING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM W-E ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WITH PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. INFLUX OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2500-4500 J/KG/ AIR FROM THE WSW WHEN COUPLED WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF OH AND WRN NY/PA. GIVEN COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD...REACHING PORTIONS OF MD/VA TONIGHT. INITIALLY...MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF EVENT UNFOLDS AS EXPECTED...MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SHIFT TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH NWWD ADVECTION OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NEB PNHDL/ERN WY INTO SERN MT. CONVERGENCE INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /35-45 KTS IN LOWEST 0-6 KM AGL/ WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER S OVER SERN WY INTO WRN NEB...SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...HOWEVER MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM GROWTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ...CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB EWD INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF MCS OVER NWRN NEB/SWRN SD. SHOULD SYSTEM REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 24/12Z...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA. EVEN IF SYSTEM DECAYS PRIOR TO ONSET OF FORECAST PERIOD...REMNANT MCV INTERACTING WITH TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA. TONIGHT...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ. MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 12:44:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 07:44:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507241256.j6OCuBSq020920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241253 SWODY1 SPC AC 241252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BUF 25 SSE CXY 10 S BWI 30 SSW SHD 25 S CRW 50 E LUK 25 SW SBN 25 S DBQ HSI 25 W IML 35 N CYS 10 SE CPR 40 SE BIL 60 W MLS 35 NE MLS 60 SW MBG 30 W RWF 20 ESE OSH 30 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 35 ESE BAM 35 SSE BYI 50 ENE SUN 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W P35 35 ENE HLC 50 E DHT 60 W CSM 30 NW BVO 50 SW SZL 45 N SZL 35 W P35. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W 3B1 20 NNE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE PBF TUP 25 SSW HSV 30 SE CHA 50 WNW TRI 10 NNW SDF 15 WSW BLV 10 WSW POF 55 ENE PBF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN MODERATE NNWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING OUT OF THE MID SOUTH. FAST MOVING IMPULSES /APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/ WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT QUICKLY SEWD AND SHOULD FOCUS ONE OR MORE MCSS INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NRN CHESAPEAKE REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING MCSS NOW OVERSPREADING LOWER MI...WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WSWWD INTO CENTRAL MN/SERN SD. THESE SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL-ORGANIZED...AND MAY MERGE INTO ONE LARGER MCS/MCC OVER LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS YET TO DESTABILIZE EAST OF OH...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF WRN NY/PA. HOWEVER...INCREASING WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID MOISTURE RETURN EWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HEATING WILL BE STRONG INTO SWRN MI/IND/WRN OH THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING WELL DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP NNW-SSE FROM LOWER MI ACROSS OH BY THE LATE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...AND WLY LLJ NOSES EWD...WRN EDGE OF ONGOING MCS SHOULD INTENSIFY/ORGANIZE AND MAY RACE SSEWD AS A BOW ECHO SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY MOVE/PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN PA/FAR WRN NY/WV/NRN MD AND NRN/WRN VA WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING MCS...AND DEGREE OF RECOVERY IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SETTLES SSEWD INTO NRN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL/LOWER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS UNDER 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE AND CAP WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS STRONG HEATING OVERCOMES CAP AND SUPPORTS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL OVER MUCH OF NEB/SERN SD INTO IA...THOUGH SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS GIVEN DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ENEWD NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SIGNAL AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED PRIOR TO 21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES /35-45 KT FROM SFC-6 KM/ AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 16:11:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 11:11:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507241623.j6OGNt5N016300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241617 SWODY1 SPC AC 241616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 15 S BFD 45 W MRB 35 WNW SHD 25 NE BKW 20 SW CRW 40 W UNI 30 E FWA 20 NNW MLI 10 SW IML 50 N CYS 35 WSW DGW 55 S SHR 55 SW MLS 25 W GDV 30 NNW DIK 55 SE MBG 35 SSE EAU 15 WNW MTW 30 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS ...CONT... 45 W 3B1 25 W PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40 WNW IWD 10 S CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT 50 SE TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N JAC 20 SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE JAN 30 ENE LUL 10 WNW MGM 30 WSW ANB 25 NNE CSV 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF 20 SSE MVN 40 SSW JBR 55 E PBF GLH 15 NNE JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK 30 WNW SLN 20 E DDC 60 SSW LBL 15 W AMA 20 NE PVW 25 SW CSM 15 SSE END 20 NNW CNU 55 SSE OJC 50 N SZL 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 20 ENE CNK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.... ...LOWER MI/OH/WRN PA TO NEB/SD... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EWD OVER ONTARIO. S OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS NW WI AND FROM SRN MN INTO NRN IA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS SWWD AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO A LOW IN NW KS. A VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IS SPREADING EWD WITH THE WARM FRONT FROM WI/IL TO LOWER MI/INDIANA...THOUGH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. THIS CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ONCE WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S/100S. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE N-S ZONE OF WAA AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY E OF THE STRONGER CAP...FROM ERN LOWER MI INTO OH...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN NY/WRN PA AND WV BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS...THOUGH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT. FARTHER W...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER NRN NEB/SE SD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTER WITHIN A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE ROCKIES. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS TO WARM ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND CONVECTION MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO MAXIMIZED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK LOW INVOF EXTREME NE WY...AND THIS LOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HELP FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE NE WY AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED E OF THE MOUNTAINS...NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH TONIGHT ACROSS NW SD/SW ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 19:56:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 14:56:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507242008.j6OK8VSp022947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242005 SWODY1 SPC AC 242004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 15 S BFD 45 W MRB 35 WNW SHD 25 NE BKW 20 SW CRW 40 W UNI 30 E FWA 20 NNW MLI 10 SW IML 50 N CYS 35 WSW DGW 55 S SHR 55 SW MLS 25 W GDV 40 SSW P24 50 ESE MBG 35 SSE EAU 15 WNW MTW 30 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT 50 SE TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N JAC 20 SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40 WNW IWD 10 S CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 45 W 3B1 25 W PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 35 NE SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE JAN 30 ENE LUL 10 WNW MGM 30 WSW ANB 25 NNE CSV 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF 20 SSE MVN 40 SSW JBR 55 E PBF GLH 15 NNE JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK 30 WNW SLN 20 E DDC 60 SSW LBL 15 W AMA 20 NE PVW 25 SW CSM 15 SSE END 20 NNW CNU 55 SSE OJC 50 N SZL 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 20 ENE CNK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...LOWER MI TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD...AND NOW EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SEWD TO CENTRAL OH/WV. STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /MLCAPE UP TO 3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND BILLOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTED THIS AIR MASS REMAINED CAPPED. SOME COOLING AT MID LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN APPARENT WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN IA/SWRN WI MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER LOWER MI. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF STORM INITIATION...SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK SEWD OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...PARTS OF NEB/SERN SD EWD TO SWRN GREAT LAKES AREA... MCV/WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN NEB/SRN MN/IA TO WI THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SRN WI WSWWD ACROSS NRN IA TO NERN-CENTRAL NEB TO NWRN KS. A SECOND BOUNDARY...MOST LIKELY A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...EXTENDED FROM SRN MN TO CENTRAL WI. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WILL BE SLOW INTO THE EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO SWRN ND INTO SERN MT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NWRN SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 00:49:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 19:49:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507250101.j6P11565003484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250058 SWODY1 SPC AC 250057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CLE 45 NNE FWA 35 S CGX 15 WNW HSI LBF 15 NW BFF 20 NNE DGW 15 ESE GCC 30 SE 4BQ 55 ESE MLS 45 ESE GDV 10 NW DIK BIS 45 NW ABR 30 ENE ABR 45 WNW RWF 35 SSE EAU 15 SSE GRB 25 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 25 W PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 35 NE SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40 WNW IWD 10 S CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT 50 SE TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N JAC 20 SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MCB 30 ENE LUL 10 WNW MGM 20 NNE MCN AVL 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF STL 40 NW UNO 35 NNE HOT 15 NW MLU 20 N MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CNK 30 NE RSL 25 NNE DDC 45 ENE DHT 25 NW AMA 35 SSE AMA 35 W CSM 15 NNW END 20 SE EMP 25 SE OJC 50 ENE MKC 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 10 NE CNK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER MI... ...NERN NEB/SERN SD/SRN MN/IA EWD INTO SRN WI/NRN IL... STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM SE OF SUX TO N OF ALO. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE RESULTED IN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE 00Z OMA/DVN SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KTS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING INVOF OF FRONTAL ZONE IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING EWD ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL. INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ LATER TONIGHT FROM WRN OK/KS INTO ERN NEB WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WWD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INTO ERN NEB WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SD.... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER NWRN SD AND NERN WY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL REMAIN W OF REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE REGENERATION ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENENCE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT OWING TO MERGING/ORGANIZING COLD POOLS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1851. ...LOWER MI... 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A MODERATELY SHEARED AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 4000-4500 J/KG/ ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE W OF N-S WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF DTX SWD INTO CNTRL OH...AND S OF WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM N OF MBS WSWWD INTO NERN IA. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING STORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR APPEARS TO BE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SWD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...SLIGHT RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA... BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE E OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WLY LLJ AXIS COUPLED WITH A WEAKER CAP IS RESULTING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT N OF LAKE ERIE AND NEAR PSB. WHILE THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...POOR LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY OBSERVED ON 00Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 07/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 05:38:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 00:38:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507250550.j6P5oYLo021758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250548 SWODY1 SPC AC 250546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MTC 15 WNW CLE 35 NNW DAY 20 SW DNV 15 W UIN 30 N DDC 30 SSE LIC 25 WNW LAR 35 NNE CPR 60 ENE MBG 40 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 35 S SJT 35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX 15 N CBM 50 NW AHN 30 WSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 20 ENE LEX 15 NE MVN 25 NNW CNU 35 SSE GAG 40 NW MAF 65 S MRF ...CONT... 25 WNW LAX 20 S NID 50 NNW DRA 40 SW ELY 40 W DPG 30 W MLD 40 ENE SUN 70 S S80 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 45 W RRT 45 N BJI 20 E HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES INTO CNTRL ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO PHASING OF AMPLIFYING CNTRL CANADIAN TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING CNTRL U.S. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM NWRN NEB/SWRN SD AT 25/12Z TO LAKE MI OR LOWER MI BY 26/12Z. ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY FROM CNTRL NEB EWD ACROSS NRN IA INTO NRN IL/SRN WI WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF MIGRATORY LOW...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WI...AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO MT/WY AHEAD OF APPROACHING NRN ROCKIES TROUGH. WHILE ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON FROM SD/NEB EWD INTO IA/MN AND WI. APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IA...SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI. RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPLY-MIXED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NEB/KS. ...NEW ENGLAND TO THE NC COAST... MCS OR REMNANTS OF MCS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT 25/12Z OVER SRN/SERN PA POSSIBLY INTO THE DELMARVA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SYSTEM PRIOR TO WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD/SEWD THROUGH REGION. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO ERN NC. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND/OR MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 07/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 12:43:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 07:43:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507251255.j6PCtDOb021134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251252 SWODY1 SPC AC 251251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC 25 W JXN 25 SSE CGX 30 ESE BRL 15 SSW STJ 30 N DDC 30 S LIC 25 NNW FCL 30 NNW SNY 15 N LBF 35 NNW BUB 30 NNE PIR 55 NE ABR 40 NNE MSP 40 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 35 S SJT 35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX 15 N CBM 50 NW AHN 30 WSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 20 ENE LEX 15 NE MVN 10 ENE CNU 30 NE CSM 40 NW MAF 65 S MRF ...CONT... 25 WNW LAX 20 S NID 50 NNW DRA 40 SW ELY 40 W DPG 30 W MLD 40 ENE SUN 70 S S80 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 40 W RRT 45 N BJI 45 W HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ALONG A LINE FROM NERN MN SSWWD INTO NERN NEB AND THEN WSWWD INTO NERN CO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN NEB/FAR SERN SD AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IA AND INTO WI LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG H25 JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE SSWLY LLJ WITH NOSE OF 35-40 KT H85 JET DEVELOPING INTO IA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT AS IT VEERS AND NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET-UP WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT... ESPECIALLY AS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE TODAY. PRIMARY NEGATIVE ATTM REMAINS ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/SRN MN AND ITS EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION/WARM FRONT LOCATION TODAY. CONVECTION MAY REINFORCE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TOO FAR SOUTH OVER IA FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO UTILIZE STRONGER WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ONGOING CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH STORMS SPREADING OUT OF/ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO IA/SRN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LLJ INCREASES. ONCE CAPPING BREAKS...ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY AND ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER IA/SRN MN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THOUGH STRONG SR-INFLOW AND MODEST/UNIFORM WLY FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR HP-SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT STORMS REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THIS REGION. IF ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN ROOTED INTO BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR AND NORTH OF E-W WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BOW ECHO COULD DEVELOP AND RACE ENEWD WITH PRONOUNCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MDT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD. REGARDLESS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL SPREADING FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW/STALL INTO SWRN NEB/NERN CO LATER TODAY AND SHOULD FOCUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM-CLUSTERS WITH THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SSEWD AFTER DARK...WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO NRN KS/NWRN MO. ...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... 12Z SOUNDING AT ALB INDICATED FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FOR 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE. REGION REMAINS AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC...AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL WEAKEN SURFACE CAP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMOUNT OF WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS INTO ERN/SRN NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGION REMAINS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. HOWEVER...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 00:02:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 19:02:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507260031.j6Q0VGMG016486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260028 SWODY1 SPC AC 260026 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE MTC 15 NE MFD 30 SW FDY 15 NE BMI 35 WNW UIN 10 SSE FLV 35 NE DDC 45 NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 25 WNW LIC 15 ESE FCL 40 ENE CYS 20 NNW LBF 25 ESE BBW OLU 50 NE MSP 45 SE ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW HTS 35 NNW SSU 20 S LBE 25 ESE AOO 15 W BWI 35 NNE RIC 40 S RIC 15 ESE DAN 45 WNW GSO 30 SE 5I3 25 NW 5I3 25 SSW HTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 45 NW MLS 35 N DIK 40 E DVL 40 E TVF 45 WNW CMX 65 ENE CMX 15 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30 SSE LRD 25 SE CRP 45 NW BPT 10 NNW GGG 15 ENE PGO SGF 15 S CNU 10 WSW ICT 25 ESE GAG 40 ESE PVW 25 NNW MAF 90 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 SW CZZ 35 WNW TRM 60 WSW DRA 60 N DRA 45 NNW P38 25 SSE DPG 50 NNE BPI 60 SW MQM 55 WNW 27U 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PIE 10 NE VRB ...CONT... 20 ESE ILM 45 NW FLO 25 NW CAE 25 ENE MCN 20 E ABY 30 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 65 N BUF 10 NNE BUF JHW 25 WSW BFD 15 NNW DUJ 10 NW AVP 20 NNW POU 30 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JAN 30 W TCL 10 NW LOZ 35 N SDF 45 ENE MVN 25 ENE POF 20 ENE LIT 35 N MLU 30 NW JAN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW SE OF RST WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS FAR SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH E-CNTRL NEB AND INTO E-CNTRL CO. ALOFT...EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOT SHOWS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN...EMBEDDED WITHIN MODESTLY STRONG /I.E. 30-40 KTS/ WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT OVER SERN MN INTO CNTRL/NRN MN...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED MID-LEVEL ROTATION OWING TO LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR N OF FRONTAL ZONE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE WHILE RESIDING IN ZONE OF STRONGER SHEAR AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT AND MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION OF MORE LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURE FROM E OF MSP SWD TO THE IA BORDER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A BOW ECHO ON COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE EWD WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHIFTING EWD INTO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SW...SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE HAS FORMED ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL IA INTO N-CNTRL KS. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS COUPLED WITH ORGANIZING/MERGING COLD POOLS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA AND NERN KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA... LONG-LIVED MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERED HIGHER ELEVATION OF WV. MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT EWD TO CHESAPEAKE BAY MAY SUPPORT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OR REINTENSIFICATION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS GUST FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 04:54:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 23:54:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507260523.j6Q5NDBi006410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260521 SWODY1 SPC AC 260519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PBG 10 SSW ALB 15 ENE ABE 20 SSW PAH 20 NE FYV 40 WSW JLN 45 NE CNU 10 NE MMO 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 W HOU 25 W ESF 35 W MLU 25 N SHV 10 N TYR 45 WNW AUS 30 SE DRT ...CONT... CZZ 30 N RAL 45 ENE NID 50 NE DRA SGU 25 W 4BL 20 WSW GJT 50 SSE RKS 50 NNW CPR 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 55 S FAR 30 N PIR 20 S BFF 45 NW AKO 20 NE LIC 45 NE LAA 40 N DDC 30 NNE RSL 15 SE DBQ 20 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NY SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MO... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO SWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO QUEBEC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL LOWER MI AT 26/12Z WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...ERN NY SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MO... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OR A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM VICINITY OF LOWER MI SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO KS. DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/ WITHIN INFLOW AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM NY SWWD INTO THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY INTO NY BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL/SRN MO...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE N ACROSS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. NONETHELESS...DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...OK WWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH REGION...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM CO FRONT RANGE SWD INTO CNTRL NM. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 10000-2000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 12:09:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 07:09:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507271238.j6RCc4Km008004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271235 SWODY1 SPC AC 271234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 20 E RIC 40 NE CHO 20 NNE HGR 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 30 NE VOK SPW 30 SSW IML 20 S RTN 15 NNW ABQ 25 SE TCS 20 WSW GDP 65 NNE BGS 25 SSE OKC 15 N BLV 30 E TOL ...CONT... 40 SSE VCT 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT 25 WSW BIH 10 NNE BIH 45 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 25 S DRA 55 NE LAS 35 SSW BCE 30 NNW U17 20 S VEL 40 E RWL 35 NNE CPR 25 W SHR 55 WNW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG 20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA ACROSS MID ATLANTIC AND SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND... ...CHESAPEAKE INTO NEW ENGLAND... STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT STEADILY EWD AND MOVE ALONG OR OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN VERY MOIST AND BECOME QUITE BUOYANT THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG PRE-FRONTAL HEATING BOOSTING MLCAPES INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE FROM VA POSSIBLY INTO EASTERN ME. IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NRN VA/MD INTO SERN NY WHERE A TRIPLE POINT LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND NEAR THE N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MID DAY. MODERATE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS... WITH STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION INCREASING THE FARTHER NORTH THEY DEVELOP INTO STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT OVER THE DELMARVA...INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM STRONG HEATING AND LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES INDICATES MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS SEVERAL COMPLEXES/LINES SPREAD TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL OVERSPREAD ND AND THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT QUICKLY ESEWD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS FROM STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...SRN AZ... MID LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND ALLOW MODEST ENELY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD SRN AZ TODAY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...12Z TUS SOUNDING INDICATED MID LEVELS ALSO REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND WILL SUPPORT INCREASED STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MODEST STEERING FLOW SHOULD CARRY STORMS WSWWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 07/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 16:13:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 11:13:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507271642.j6RGgC9m003763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271629 SWODY1 SPC AC 271628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 10 S RIC 10 SE SHD 20 WNW MRB 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT 25 WSW BIH 10 NNE BIH 45 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 25 S DRA 55 NE LAS 35 SSW BCE 30 NNW U17 20 S VEL 40 NNW LAR 45 NNE DGW 50 ENE BIL 45 N HVR ...CONT... 60 W ANJ 15 SSW CWA 15 NNE SPW 30 NW SUX 15 NE BUB 20 S IML 15 NW CAO 45 WNW TCC 55 SSE SAF 35 ENE ONM 15 NNW ALM 25 S CNM 40 SE BGS 30 ENE SEP 25 SE FYV 15 NNW ARG EVV 15 E ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG 20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO ERN MAINE.... ...MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN IL/LOWER MI AREA AS OF MID MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TODAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD NRN MN/WRN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT NOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM DRT TO MEM TO ROC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT /N OF UCA/ DEVELOPS ENEWD TOWARD DOWN EAST MAINE BY EARLY TONIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN NY TO ERN VA/NC. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MOIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F FROM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN MAINE TO ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF STATES. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE/ORIENTATION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SHORT LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND PERHAPS A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...MN/SE ND THIS AFTERNOON... A COMPLEX SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES ARE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND DAKOTAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/TROUGH ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN. E OF THE THICKER CLOUDS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...FRONT RANGE OF CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 45-50 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE FRONT RANGE. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SSE MOVING STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ...DESERT SW... RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE /LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AZ INTO EXTREME SE CA/SRN NV. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK OVER THIS AREA...THUS ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 19:18:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 14:18:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507271948.j6RJm2Pu030546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271945 SWODY1 SPC AC 271944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 15 SSW RIC 35 E LYH 50 SW AVL 25 NNW RMG 15 WSW HSV 15 NE MSL 35 NE CSV 35 SSW EKN 20 NW MRB 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT BIH 40 S U31 70 ESE U31 P38 SGU 35 S BCE 30 SSE BCE 30 NNW U17 20 S VEL 40 NNW LAR 35 SE DGW CDR 45 ESE CDR 20 WSW MHN 20 S IML LAA LVS ABQ TCS ALM ELP MRF BWD PRX PGO DYR UNI DUJ UCA MPV 20 SSE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ANJ CWA ATY MBG 40 SSW REJ 4BQ SHR 40 NNE BIL GGW 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG 20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND THE TN VALLEY.... ...TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO ATLANTIC STATES... SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX. FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF BROKEN NARROW LINE OF STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT...FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SLOW SOUTHWARD ADVANCE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...EXTENDING JUST AHEAD OF FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. BUT...MEAN FLOW REGIME /ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 KT/ WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH FLOW REGIME IS WEAKER WEST OF THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE COLD POOLS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A BIT MORE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SOLIDIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS...OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... MOISTURE IS MARGINAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MID-LEVEL COOLING ABOVE PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL OVERSPREADING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONGEST CELLS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS... BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ...WESTERN STATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AIDED BY WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER INTO THE OREGON COAST. HIGH IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS OCCURS...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST APPEARS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO...WHERE MID-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 07/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 00:26:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 19:26:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507280055.j6S0t8Pm018910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280052 SWODY1 SPC AC 280051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ECG 50 N RWI 25 SE LYH 35 SSE CHO 30 W NHK 30 SSE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNW ANJ 30 NW IMT 55 NNE EAU 25 SSW STC 10 ESE ABR 15 N MBG 30 SE DIK 30 WNW DIK 35 WNW SDY 60 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 NNE BFL 60 SSE BIH 40 SW DRA 25 WSW LAS 30 NNW IGM 50 SW GCN 50 ESE GCN 55 SSE U17 50 NNE 4BL 25 WSW EGE 40 NNW 4FC 10 ENE FCL 40 NNW LIC 35 ENE PUB 10 SSW TAD 25 S SAF 20 NNE TCS 30 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 40 WNW P07 40 SSE MAF 40 NNE SJT ACT 15 SSW TYR 50 WSW HOT 30 NNE HOT 60 SW MEM TUP 10 W HSV 40 SSE LOZ 20 SSE PKB 20 WSW MGW 50 ENE EKN 30 SSE MRB 35 NW ILG 20 SSW BDL 20 WNW PWM 30 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG SRN FRINGES OF EJECTING SPEED MAX. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN A FEW HOURS EARLIER. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL SOON MOVE OFF THE DE/NJ COAST AS STRONGEST COLD POOL FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF ONGOING SLIGHT RISK REGION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS IT APPEARS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED FOR MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THAT CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. GIVEN THE SURGE ACROSS NRN VA/MD...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET EVOLVE ALONG BOUNDARY...THEN DROP SWD INTO SERN VA...OR PERHAPS EXTREME NRN NC LATER THIS EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DARROW.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 05:14:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 00:14:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507280543.j6S5h4Rr009497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280540 SWODY1 SPC AC 280539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 35 ENE CAE 30 WNW AND 30 ESE TYS 40 SW BLF 25 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BCE 25 ESE 4BL 20 SSE ASE LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 35 SSW SLC 45 NE BCE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 20 NNE JMS 65 S FAR 20 WSW BRD 55 ESE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MTC 30 NE IRK 25 SE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 25 S ALM 15 WSW MAF 30 WNW ACT 40 N ELD 60 ENE BWG 25 N MGW 30 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 SSE BFL 55 SSW BIH 25 WNW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 E BNO 45 ESE EPH 30 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... TRAILING PORTIONS OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW DOWNSTREAM...LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG SWD-SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE CAROLINAS SUGGEST MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS SUB CLOUD RH VALUES WILL LOWER ENOUGH TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ DEVELOPS FROM NWRN KS INTO WRN SD. AS SFC PRESSURES BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS...WEAK SFC FRONT WILL DROP SWD INTO NRN NEB BEFORE STALLING AND RETURNING NWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...ALONG WITH MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. VEERING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL SUPPORT WEAK ROTATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED HAIL OR STRONG WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY BUT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 12:10:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 07:10:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507281239.j6SCdoHo031655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281237 SWODY1 SPC AC 281235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 40 ESE AHN 20 NNE ATL 25 ENE CHA 20 NNW TRI 25 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL 15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W 4HV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 SSE BFL 55 SSW BIH 25 WNW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 W BNO 45 ESE EPH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 70 NW DVL 20 NNE JMS 45 SSW FAR 35 NNW AXN 50 SE ELO ...CONT... 55 NNE MTC 30 NE IRK 25 SE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 25 S ALM 15 WSW MAF 20 SW FTW 25 SW LIT 60 ENE BWG AOO 20 SW JFK ...CONT... 60 S CRP 55 WNW MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... ...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT... SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SWWD INTO WRN SC/NRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING VIS IMAGERY INDICATES AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY CLOUD FREE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S. AS FRONT SHIFTS SWD BEFORE STALLING...CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF MODERATE WLY FLOW AND LEAVE MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS. STORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE FRONT AND INVOF SEA BREEZES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS... WITH MOST LIKELY SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN GA ENEWD INTO ERN NC. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY SSEWD ACROSS MN AND NRN WI TODAY AHEAD OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THOUGH NAM BE OVER FORECASTING AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /I.E. NAM FORECASTS MID 60F SFC DEW POINTS/...COMBINATION OF ADVECTION...DOWNWARD MIXING AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD INCREASE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. GIVEN 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF NEAR SEVERE HAIL/WIND...DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...INTO THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WEDGE OF 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN SELY FLOW INTO WRN NEB/SWRN SD AS SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT A RELATIVELY DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TODAY...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+ KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR. THUS...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT OR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERSIST AS THEY MOVE SSEWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THEY COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW ATTM WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPPING...AND WILL THUS OPT TO LEAVE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW. LATER TONIGHT...MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED STORMS ALONG NOSE OF 40+ KT SLY LLJ WHICH WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 16:10:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 11:10:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507281639.j6SGdFtp018268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281634 SWODY1 SPC AC 281633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SAV 40 ESE MCN 20 NNE ATL 50 S TYS 40 E TRI 15 SW DAN 30 NNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL 15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W 4HV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MBS 35 NNW CGX 15 E OTM 15 N FNB 30 ESE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 20 SSE ALM 20 SW MAF 40 ENE SJT 35 W ACT 40 SE HOT 55 E BWG AOO 20 SW JFK ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 20 NNE JMS 65 N ATY 15 S AXN 45 ENE CMX ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 30 SSE BFL 45 E FAT 35 WSW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 W BNO 45 ESE EPH 60 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.... ...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... THE SYNOPTIC FRONT HAS DRIFTED SWD INTO SRN NC AND THE PIEDMONT OF SC...AND THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS W ACROSS N GA/AL. THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK S OF THE FRONT...AND VERY MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS IN THE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY. STILL...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL. ...HIGH PLAINS... THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN EXTENDS WWD ACROSS SD...AND THEN NWWD INTO SE MT AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN MT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY...AND LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/WAA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INVOF WRN SD BY EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY FORM LATE TODAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...OR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE W IN NE WY/SRN MT...AND THIS CONVECTION COULD PERSIST AS A SMALL MCS TONIGHT ACROSS WRN SD/NEB. DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ...FL THIS AFTERNOON... 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY INLAND OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK ELY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL ALLOW INITIAL DEVELOPING STORMS TO STAY ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOCAL STORM INTERACTIONS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MN/WI... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NW WI. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AUGMENTED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 19:20:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 14:20:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507281949.j6SJnLBW015141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281947 SWODY1 SPC AC 281945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CHS 10 SSW AGS 15 N AHN 25 E TYS 35 SE 5I3 20 ESE SSU 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL 15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W 4HV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 25 N BFL 40 SW TVL 25 NNW SVE 60 WSW BNO 55 ESE EPH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 20 NNW JMS 60 S FAR 30 E AXN 35 S DLH 65 NE CMX ...CONT... 15 NNE MBS 35 NNW CGX 20 ESE OTM 35 SE HSI 15 NNW HLC 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 20 SSE ALM 20 SW MAF 40 ENE SJT 35 W ACT 40 SE HOT 45 ENE BWG PKB 35 E AOO 15 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN VA...FAR ERN TN...NC AND SC... ...EAST COAST/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/FL... AN UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...ASCENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WV EXTENDING SSWWD TO AL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN ERN SC...ERN GA AND FL. A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST CONSIDERING OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 20 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... A MESOLOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN MN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT TAKING THE STORMS ESEWD INTO CNTRL WI...SERN MN AND NE IA BY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM SE MT EXTENDING ESEWD INTO CNTRL SD. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN SD SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. STILL...SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. THE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ..BROYLES.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 00:27:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 19:27:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507290056.j6T0uCtb014075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290053 SWODY1 SPC AC 290052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E GSB 25 W SOP 25 SW HKY 40 WNW HKY 50 E TRI 25 SW ROA 55 SSW RIC 25 E GSB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 20 WSW BIL 45 NE MLD 25 NW DPG 20 N MLF 25 W PGA INW 20 NNE SAD 60 E DUG ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 N BFL 40 SW TVL 25 NNW SVE 60 WSW BNO 25 ENE LWS 50 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW P07 65 SSE MAF 25 E SJT 25 W CLL 40 W POE 45 NNE HEZ 45 NE CSV 35 NW EKN 15 WSW MRB 25 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE EAR 30 ENE SNY 30 SSE 81V 50 E MLS 45 NW DIK 40 W ABR 15 W FSD 20 ENE LNK 15 SSE EAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OSC 30 NNE MKG 45 S LSE 25 E MKT 20 ENE MSP 40 ESE RHI 10 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...CAROLINAS... 00Z SOUNDING FROM GSO APPEARS PARTLY CONTAMINATED BY DEEP CONVECTION...YET THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STILL EXHIBIT A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG WHERE AIRMASS HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROPAGATING NWD ACROSS NC...APPARENTLY AIDED BY MARINE SURGE FROM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NNEWD TOWARD THE VA BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED. UNTIL THEN...MORE ROBUST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING REDUCES OVERALL THREAT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION...SEWD INTO CNTRL NEB. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALLOWED SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC ALONG BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AS LLJ INCREASES. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED-SCT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WEAK INSTABILITY DOES NOT FAVOR MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OR PERHAPS GUSTY DOWNBURSTS. ..DARROW.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 05:25:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 00:25:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507290554.j6T5sIMJ005245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290551 SWODY1 SPC AC 290549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MQT 25 NNW DBQ 50 SSW IRK 25 E TOP 40 WNW CNK 45 SW EAR 35 SSE SNY 20 ESE DEN 40 SSW PUB 30 SW RTN 10 NE ABQ 30 SE ONM 45 W ROW 25 NNW HOB 45 NE BGS 35 ENE ACT 20 WNW POE 20 ENE HEZ 40 SE MKL 60 SW LEX 25 ENE PKB 30 N CXY 25 WNW BDR 15 E BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 W PMD 30 ENE BFL 40 E FAT 40 ESE TVL 15 WSW SVE 35 N RBL 40 WSW MHS 25 E CEC 50 SE OTH 70 N BNO 45 SE GTF 65 NNW GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S... DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 IN...WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY. WITHIN THIS PLUME...OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESULTANT MLCAPE VALUES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG IF CLOUDINESS INDEED HOLDS AS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITHIN OTHERWISE MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST THINKING IS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AS CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERTURNING AND MEAGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...BLACK HILLS REGION... UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO SERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A MIGRATION OF WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED DISTURBANCES FROM THE GREAT BASIN/INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IT APPEARS ONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM NV INTO WY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ELY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN SD INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR 30/00Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE ANY WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM QUICKLY INTO THE MO VALLEY REGION WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 12:20:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 07:20:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507291248.j6TCmxSX028870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291246 SWODY1 SPC AC 291245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MHN 25 SSW CDR 65 NE DGW 15 SSE 81V REJ 10 SW PHP 25 WSW VTN 40 WNW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 W PMD 15 SW BFL 20 NE FAT 25 S TVL 15 WSW SVE 35 N RBL 40 E EKA 30 ENE CEC 50 SE OTH 30 NNW RDM 45 SE GTF 80 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 15 NW PIA 45 NNW COU 25 WNW FLV 25 N CNK 45 SW EAR 40 ENE AKO 25 ENE COS 40 SSW PUB 30 NNW LVS 10 NE ABQ 40 SW 4CR 25 WNW ROW 25 NNW HOB 65 NE BGS 55 SW LFK POE 25 N HEZ 40 SE MKL 60 SW LEX 30 NNE PKB 30 ENE DUJ 25 WNW BDR 25 SW HYA ...CONT... 45 E TOL FWA 25 E SBN 15 S GRR 25 ENE MBS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM ID/MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ID/NV WILL ROTATE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING OVER WESTERN SD BY 00Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND BIGHORNS WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID INITIATION. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z AS DIURNAL COOLING STRENGTHENS CAP. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SC/GA. THIS AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR MASS...COUPLED WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL POSE A RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 16:07:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 11:07:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507291636.j6TGaWVM002403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291626 SWODY1 SPC AC 291624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 15 NW PIA 25 NW COU FLV 25 N CNK 45 SW EAR 40 ENE AKO 25 ENE COS 40 SSW PUB 30 NNW LVS 10 NE ABQ 40 SW 4CR 35 ENE ROW 25 ENE PVW 10 ESE SEP 55 SW LFK POE 25 N HEZ 40 SE MKL 60 SW LEX 30 NNE PKB 30 ENE DUJ 25 WNW BDR 25 SW HYA ...CONT... 15 ENE PBG 25 SSW ROC 40 E TOL 25 N FWA 10 SSW GRR 30 ENE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 W PMD 25 WNW BFL 20 NE FAT 25 S TVL 15 WSW SVE 35 N RBL 40 E EKA 20 E CEC 50 NW 4LW 55 SE DLS 15 NE S80 30 NW HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS WITH A MDT W/WNWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. MONSOON MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING EWD FROM SRN ID INTO WY/SERN MT AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN ND SEWD TO E OF BLACK HILLS. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED SHEAR COUPLED WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE THE BETTER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THIS AREA WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN MT/NERN WY IN THE MONSOON PLUME. LIMITED CAPE AND HIGH BASES SUGGEST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. STORMS COULD INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVES ACROSS SURFACE TROUGH INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SD AND POSSIBLY NE. HAVE DROPPED SLGT RISK FROM EARLIER FORECAST AS IT APPEARS SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE E OF BLACK HILLS WHICH RAISES UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MANY AND WHEN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP GIVEN THE APPARENT CAP. ...SWRN U.S... SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE UNDERWAY IMPERIAL VALLEY AND SWRN/SCENTRAL AZ. THE PREVAILING SELY STEERING FLOW S OF 4-CORNERS HIGH WILL FAVOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PROPAGATING WWD INTO LOWER DESERT VALLEY. WITH MLCAPE CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW..A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS...WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...SERN STATES... A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED AIR MASS REMAINS TO THE S OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WRN CAROLINAS TO NRN GA...WITH STRONG MORNING HEATING FROM SERN NC TO SERN GA. WITH SOUNDINGS IN AREA INDICATING ONLY WEAK CAP AND POTENTIALLY MLCAPES TO ABOVE 3000 J/G THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON FIRST VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM COAST AS WELL AS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS. ..HALES/SCHNEIDER.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 19:15:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 14:15:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507291944.j6TJiobL021308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291942 SWODY1 SPC AC 291941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 40 SW RFD 35 NE UIN 40 N COU 35 N SZL 35 S BIE 35 ENE MCK 35 NE LIC 40 SSW PUB 15 SW SAF 35 ENE ONM 35 WNW ROW 40 S LBB 10 N SEP 40 W LFK 15 NNE POE 20 NE HEZ 30 WNW MSL 25 WSW LOZ 10 W HGR 20 ENE NEL ...CONT... 15 ENE PBG 25 SSW ROC 35 E TOL 35 W TOL 30 SSW AZO 15 SW GRR 45 WNW MBS 50 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 20 NE LAX 40 WSW FAT 45 E UKI 35 E ACV 25 SW MFR 75 NNE MFR 40 S PDT 55 S S06 35 NNW HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL. THE CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND WEAK FORCING DUE TO AN ERN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE FORMING NEAR AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM CNTRL GA TO ERN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 20 KT SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. MOIST PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF SFC HEATING. ...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN SD AROUND THE NERN END OF A SWRN US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ONGOING IN ERN NEB. AS THE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A FEW CELLS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SFC-BASED STORMS DEVELOP BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. FARTHER WEST IN THE BLACK HILLS...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR THIS EVENING. THE CELLS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE HAIL THREAT BRIEF AND MARGINAL. ...SW DESERTS... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH IS TRANSPORTING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE SW DESERTS. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED STORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA...AZ AND NV. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT NWD INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 00:33:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 19:33:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507300101.j6U11pZX003941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300059 SWODY1 SPC AC 300058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 35 WSW RHI 25 NNE LSE 20 NNE MCW 25 S FSD 25 NE VTN 40 E DGW 10 WNW RWL 20 NE VEL 25 NE 4HV 70 WNW GUP 45 N SVC 25 S CNM 30 NNE BGS 10 N SEP 35 NNE CLL 20 SW LCH 30 ESE LFT 35 SW MSL 35 SW LOZ 10 W HGR 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SE PMD 15 SE BIH 40 W TVL 35 E ACV 25 SW MFR 75 NNE MFR 40 S PDT 45 W MSO 40 S GTF 50 NE LWT 50 NNW GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM FGZ AND TUS DEPICT DEEP ELY COMPONENT ON SWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT REGION BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL TEMPERATURES COOL...ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER RAIN CORES...ESPECIALLY FROM YUMA COUNTY AZ...NWD INTO SRN NV. ...SERN U.S... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL BUT OVERTURNED DAYTIME BUOYANCY WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER. NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL INTERACTIONS COULD ENHANCE STORM UPDRAFTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEANINGFUL SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...NRN U.S... PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION MAY AT SOME POINT ALLOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE ALONG ERN EDGE OF CAP. SOUNDINGS FROM BIS TO MPX SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE SHOULD DEVELOP WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MEAGER AT BEST. PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE APPEAR TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER MCKENZIE COUNTY ND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME ELEVATED AS IT DRIFTS EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 05:26:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 00:26:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507300555.j6U5tmIN012105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300550 SWODY1 SPC AC 300549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LGB 45 ESE PRB 40 NE MRY 50 N UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 15 E GDV 55 N ISN ...CONT... 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 15 E BEH 40 SW RFD 50 NE FNB 30 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 30 E LBB 30 ENE ABI TPL 50 ENE CLL 45 E LFK 20 ENE MLU 10 N CBM 30 ENE MSL 35 WNW CSV 25 ESE LOZ 40 ENE 5I3 45 WSW MRB 25 NNW BWI 30 SW ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN U.S.... ...NRN U.S... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS ISOLATED-SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID DAY-AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SPREADING INTO ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN BROAD UPPER RIDGING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SWD EXTENSION OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ND BY EARLY EVENING WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS IF CONVECTION DOES EVOLVE. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS NEAR 31/00Z...BRIEFLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SERN U.S... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. AGAIN TODAY. LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND EARLY STORM INITIATION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SWRN U.S... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MEXICO INTO SRN AZ SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER CORES. GRADUAL MOISTENING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL RAISE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS BY EVENING. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 12:21:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 07:21:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507301250.j6UCo7kh000914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301248 SWODY1 SPC AC 301247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE MQT 40 SSW IMT 60 N EAU 10 SSW DLH 40 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 15 E BEH 25 SSE PIA 50 NE FNB 30 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 35 WSW CDS 30 ENE ABI TPL 50 ENE CLL 45 E LFK 20 NW MLU 25 NE PBF 30 SW MKL 35 WNW CSV 20 ESE LOZ 40 NE 5I3 15 ESE MGW 25 NNW BWI 30 SW ACY ...CONT... 40 S RAL 40 NNW DAG 40 N SAC 60 NNW UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 15 E GDV 55 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI... ...ND/MN... LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER MOST OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FIELD. ONE FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ND/EASTERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER ALB/MAN...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF ND BY EARLY EVENING. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...MN/WI/MI... LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEB INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI BY 00Z. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET IS LIKELY TO AID IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LAKE MI DURING THE EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS STORMS MOVE INTO LOWER MI. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TODAY FROM AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. STORMS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS. ...AZ... WEAK EASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN AZ TODAY. THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/BOTHWELL.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 15:39:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 10:39:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507301608.j6UG84dZ031670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301555 SWODY1 SPC AC 301554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RRT 30 ENE FAR 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE MQT 40 SSW IMT 60 N EAU 10 SSW DLH 25 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S RAL 40 NNW DAG 40 N SAC 55 SSE EKA 45 SE OTH 15 WSW DLS 35 SW S06 35 NNE 3DU LWT 85 WNW MLS 45 SW OLF 65 NNE OLF ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 20 NE SBN 25 ENE PIA 50 NE FNB 45 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 50 E LBB 45 NNE ABI TPL 45 SSW CLL 40 WSW HOU 35 W BPT 25 ENE LCH 20 NW MLU 25 NE PBF 10 SE MKL 35 WNW CSV 20 ESE LOZ 40 NE 5I3 15 ESE MGW 20 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ND AND NWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NRN WI... ...MN ARROWHEAD TO WRN MI AND NRN WI... STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA AS 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM ERN NEB TO WRN LS IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD. SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM WRN MN SEWD INTO SRN WI WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE FRONT AS NOTED ON 12Z INL SOUNDING CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF ARROWHEAD. 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NERN MN INTO WRN UP OF MICHIGAN AND NRN WI THRU THE DAY AS THE MDT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LARGE WRN UPPER HI TRAVERSES THIS AREA. ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND GRADUALLY WORK SEWD INTO NERN MN AND WRN LS. SHEAR AND MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS ALTHOUGH SOME WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATER IF STORM DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THREAT INITIALLY ACROSS NERN MN WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN UP MI AND NRN WI BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...ND/NWRN MN... CURRENT STRONG CAP WILL STEADILY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THRU THE 90S ACROSS ND. WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL ND EWD INTO NWRN MN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK S/WV IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TODAY WHERE SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST INITIATE. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO NRN ND/NWRN MN. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THE 30-40KT 500 MB WLY FLOW ALONG CANADIAN BORDER...COUPLED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AGAIN WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. LOCALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30 F T/TD SPREADS. ...SWRN U.S... MONSOON MOISTURE NOW COVERS MUCH OF SWRN U.S. EXTENDING NEWD THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS REMAINS OVER THE SERN THIRD OF AZ THIS AM WHICH WILL REDUCE HEATING SUFFICIENTLY TO REDUCE THREAT OF SEVERE IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER FROM WRN AZ/SERN CA NWD INTO SRN NV/SWRN UT THE COMBINED HEATING AND NOW MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A MDTLY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS ALL OF THIS AREA WITH STEERING FLOW LESS THAN 10KT. THUS SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE UNORGANIZED WITH STORMS DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROPAGATING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. BOTH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SERN U.S... STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. WITH EXTENSIVE INLAND CLOUD COVER...THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LANDS WHERE THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH HEATING. VERY WEAK SHEAR...THUS PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE DOMINANT MODE. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 19:35:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 14:35:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507302003.j6UK3woe007675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302000 SWODY1 SPC AC 301958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RRT 25 S TVF 35 N ABR 30 S MBG 55 SSE Y22 25 NW Y22 60 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W OSH 35 E EAU 45 NNE BRD 50 SW INL 10 ESE INL 70 ESE ELO 45 NNE RHI 40 NNE GRB 10 WNW MTW 10 E OSH 35 W OSH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE OSC 20 NE SBN 25 ENE PIA 50 NE FNB 45 ENE GLD 25 S LHX 50 SSE RTN 15 NW CVS 35 NE BGS 45 SSE AUS 30 E PSX ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 25 E EDW 60 ESE FAT 45 S RBL 35 NE ACV 45 SE OTH 15 WSW DLS 35 SW S06 45 NNW HLN 85 NNE BIL 45 SSW OLF 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 50 N POE 50 WSW MEM 40 NE LEX 20 SSW IPT 30 SW POU 20 S GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CNTRL MT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SFC TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WCNTRL ND. EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY UNSTABILE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION INITIATES...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF ND AND ACROSS WRN SD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN ND INTO NW MN BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN MN. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NCNTRL MN AND CNTRL WI. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT ARE IN THE 60S F WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AS STORMS INITIATE AND DRIFT SEWD ACROSS NE MN AND NRN WI. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS ERN GA...ERN SC AND ERN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH VAD WIND PROFILERS IN THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOWING WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE CELLS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ...DESERT SW... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING ABOUT 15 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS. ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 00:30:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 19:30:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507310059.j6V0xErs017984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310056 SWODY1 SPC AC 310055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ELO 30 SE TVF 45 WSW FAR 10 SE MBG 35 E Y22 45 S P24 45 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE MTC 35 ESE MKE 15 NE CID 30 NE FNB 30 SW GLD 20 NW TAD 40 NNW LVS 40 SE SAF 35 ENE 4CR 50 NNE ROW 40 ESE CVS 60 NE BGS 25 WSW BWD 45 SSW PSX ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 20 NW NID 55 SSE TVL 45 S RBL 35 NE ACV 35 WNW MFR 15 NNE RDM 20 NE ALW MSO 25 ESE LVM 25 NNE SHR 35 N GCC 40 W REJ 60 SW DIK 45 NNW DIK 70 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 15 NW ESF 35 W UOX 25 NNE LOZ 35 WSW EKN 15 ESE AOO 15 WSW CXY 30 WNW DOV 20 WSW ACY 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND NWRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS... LEE-TROUGH EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNED ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FROM MT/ND TO NRN MN. WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT EXISTS ATOP THIS BOUNDARY ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE WCNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FASTER FLOW AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION HAS INHIBITED MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF STORMS MANAGING TO INITIATE NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH OVER SCNTRL ND...AND ACROSS WRN SD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/LOW ACROSS NRN ND AND INTO NWRN MN THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AIDS IN FURTHER WEAKENING THE CAP. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS ND WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING...TIME OF DAY...AND STRENGTH OF THE CAP. ...UPR MS RIVER VLY TO NRN GREAT LAKES... GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION RESULTS IN LOWER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS WI AND MI TONIGHT. ONE SMALL MCS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF DECAYING ACROSS THE U.P. AND NRN LWR MI THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN LTG ACTIVITY INDICATED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAGNITUDE OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEAK LLJ DIRECTED TOWARD THE REGION...SHOULD ACT TO MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE REGIME FOR A LATE NIGHT MCS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF AN MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE NRN PLAINS CONVECTION...OR IF WEAK CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS WI WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK. EITHER SCENARIO MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...LWR CO RIVER VLY... MONSOON MOISTURE AND HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN CA AND SWRN AZ. HIGHER TERRAIN PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS NOW DRIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. PULSE AND MULTICELL INTERACTIONS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS FROM PHX AREA WWD ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 04:57:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 23:57:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507310526.j6V5QYdv016042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310524 SWODY1 SPC AC 310522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE OSC 20 SSW MBL 25 W AUW 30 E STC 45 WNW BRD 20 NW BJI 40 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 35 ESE SLE 40 E EPH 30 NNW CTB ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 30 NNW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 35 S PHP 20 NNW 9V9 60 NW ABR 60 N MOT ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TOL 20 E SBN 40 W RFD 25 WNW FLV 25 ESE RSL 55 NNW GCK 40 NE LVS 45 NNW 4CR 40 SSW 4CR 25 NW GDP 30 WSW FST 65 NE P07 50 SW JCT 15 ENE HDO 55 NW VCT 35 NNE CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 W ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN/WI/MI... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE WCNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH A BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW ARCING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST U.S...INTO SCNTRL CANADA...AND THEN BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...IS FCST TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY IN NWLY FLOW WHILE SPREADING FROM MN TO ERN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION FROM BAJA/MEXICO. THIS PLUME NOW EXTENDS AROUND THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...AND ROCKIES. TROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BENEATH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE CONUS. ...UPR MS VLY/NRN GREAT LAKES... AN MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY FROM NRN MN TO NRN MI. THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK LLJ...AND LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING SEWD WITHIN NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER... PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TOPPED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALIGNED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN NY... WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ESEWD INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FROM THE SRN TIER/HUDSON VLY AREAS INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING. IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THAN CURRENTLY FCST...PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO SLGT RISK IN A LATER OUTLOOK. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 12:17:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 07:17:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507311246.j6VCkEfW026105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311244 SWODY1 SPC AC 311242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N MTC 25 NNW MKG 40 ENE VOK 30 E STC 45 WNW BRD 20 NW BJI 40 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 25 E SLE 10 WNW EPH 80 WNW FCA ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 30 NNW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 35 S PHP 20 SE 9V9 55 NNE ABR 70 W RRT ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE TOL 20 E SBN 30 NE MLI FLV 25 ESE RSL 55 NNW GCK 40 NE LVS 45 NNW 4CR 40 SSW 4CR 25 NW GDP 25 NW FST 65 WSW SJT 30 NW JCT 30 NNW SAT 30 SE AUS 35 NNE CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 W ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES... PRIMARY BAND OF WESTERLIES REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...LEAVING VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PARTS OF MI/WI/MN. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UPPER MI AND EASTERN WI...SPREADING ACROSS LOWER MI BY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...A WEAK CAP...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO AND SOUTHERN WY...SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING OVER EASTERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE WINDS IN MORE INTENSE CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE EVENING...WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ...AZ... MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ...WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION... SUGGESTING THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUPPRESSED SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND 15-25 KT EASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LESSEN DIURNAL HEATING TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS RATHER LOW TODAY. ..HART/GUYER.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 16:00:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 11:00:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507311628.j6VGSqsk024497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311620 SWODY1 SPC AC 311619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MTC 15 NNW MKG 30 NNW OSH 10 NE AUW 10 S IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E DTW AZO 10 ENE BRL 10 ENE FLV SLN 20 ESE LAA 30 SSW RTN 45 ESE ABQ 35 SSW 4CR 25 NW GDP 25 NW FST 55 WSW SJT 20 WSW JCT 40 WNW HDO 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT CLL 40 SSW GGG 25 E MEM 55 E BWG 30 SE LEX HLG 25 SW FKL 25 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 25 E SLE 10 WNW EPH 80 WNW FCA ...CONT... 50 NNW GGW 30 NE MLS 40 NNE RAP 20 NNE MHN 35 N BUB 40 WNW YKN 45 NE ATY 10 W INL ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO DOMINATING CIRCULATION MUCH OF CONUS...THE ONLY AREA WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS VICINITY UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 30-35 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS TRANSPORTED A VERY MOIST AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS WI INTO NRN LWR AND UPPER MI. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER FROM WEAKENING OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ALLOWING STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN. THE 25-30KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLULAR STORM ORGANIZATION. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO LOCAL CONVERGENCE...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZES AND SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS. HAVE TAKEN SEVERE THREAT OUT OF MN AS AIR MASS ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION HAS DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY AS SHOWN ON INL 12Z SOUNDING AND TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACARS NETWORK. ...SWRN U.S... WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...LAPSE RATES ARE NOW GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURST SEVERE WINDS MUCH OF SWRN U.S. AN EXCEPTION COULD STILL BE VICINITY LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE SHOULD BE FULL HEATING ALONG WITH CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF MONSOON MOISTURE. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL CONFINE THE FEW STRONG STORMS TO NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NEB/SD. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED SEWD INTO SRN NEB/NERN CO OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO N OF BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO/SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 8-9 C/KM LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 19:15:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 14:15:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200507311943.j6VJhqXx015499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311942 SWODY1 SPC AC 311940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE OSC 40 SSW HTL 10 WSW GRB 15 WNW AUW 55 W RHI 25 SSW IWD 25 SW CMX 65 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT CLL 35 SSW GGG DYR 20 SE CMH 25 SSW YNG 20 W FKL 25 W ERI 50 NNE CLE ...CONT... 10 E DTW 10 E AZO 10 E BRL 10 ENE FLV SLN 20 ESE LAA 15 SE TAD 10 ENE SAF 25 ENE ONM 20 SSE ALM 45 SE GDP 20 W FST 40 W SJT 20 WNW JCT 45 WNW HDO 45 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 45 SSE BIH 65 NW BIH 50 N SAC 40 WSW RBL 45 NE ACV 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW RDM 25 N ALW 15 ESE GEG 80 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 45 S GGW 20 W REJ 30 SSW PHP 10 SW VTN 45 ENE ANW 15 SSW MHE 50 NE ATY 10 W INL ...CONT... 15 W MSS BTV 25 SSW MWN 10 E PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...GREAT LAKES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN WITH A BAND OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UP OF MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN MI INTO NRN WI. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVELS FROM NERN WI TO THE EAST APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...NORTHEAST... A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN NY AND NRN PA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN SRN NY SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING JUST ENOUGH SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY NEAR PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DENVER PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 10 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 1000 J/KG...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40+ F. THIS SUGGESTS HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW CELLS NEAR PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ...DESERT SOUTHWEST... SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPS IS CREATING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.