[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310052
SWODY1
SPC AC 310050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2005

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 40 SSW ALI
70 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 WSW COT 45 SE JCT 15 WSW FTW 40 SW DUA 20
ESE PRX 50 ESE SHV 15 E POE 35 SSE LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX TO WRN LA...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NM WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SHEARS
ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WAA
REMAINING THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM DEEP S TX NEWD INTO THE NWRN AND NRN
GULF...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG AND NEAR A LINE
FROM MFE TO AUS TO PRX TO SERN OK.

DESPITE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM DEEP S
TX NNEWD TO ERN OK PER LATE AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY...EMBEDDED TSTMS
WERE CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA WHERE THE 35 KT SLY LLJ INTERSECTED AN
E-W ORIENTED 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT OVER NRN TX.  THIS LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY AND THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
SSEWD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LLJ VEERING TO SWLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATES ENEWD.  THUS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP
SSEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND WRN LA WITHIN STRONGEST WAA.

...WEST CENTRAL TX...
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED AFTER 23Z NEAR THE
NM/TX BORDER.  THESE STORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHERE UVVS WERE MAXIMIZED AND THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
WAA...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
VERY LOW WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUING TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THIS EVENING AND DECREASING WAA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AFTER 02Z.  GIVEN THE SMALL
COVERAGE AREA AND SHORT DURATION OF A SEVERE AND GENERAL TSTM
THREAT...SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND A CATEGORICAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ADDED FOR THIS AREA.

..PETERS.. 01/31/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.