[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090458
SWODY1
SPC AC 090457

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 30 SSE
AST 25 ENE OTH 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE CEC EKA 40 S EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SMX 40 SW BFL
10 W RAL 20 W CZZ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ENERGETIC ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS AMERICA ON
SUNDAY.  LARGE PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE VOID OF TSTM
PROBABILITIES...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE PAC COAST.  UPPER LOW OFF
WA/ORE WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND RETROGRADE SWWD.  A PHASING PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...BETWEEN 22-26N/
135-138W...APPEAR NOT WELL RECOGNIZED IN LATEST MODEL SUITE.  THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH SRN CA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

...WA/ORE/NRN CA COASTAL AREAS...
HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.  AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND MOVES
SWWD...UPPER RIDGING/MID-LEVEL WARMING SHOULD COMMENCE AND CAUSE THE
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO FALL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DECREASE
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WITH TIME.

...SRN CA...
STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS SRN
CA.  CONVECTIVE THREATS WILL BE ENHANCED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH.  MODEST
LAPSE RATES ATOP MOIST MARINE LAYER WILL SUPPORT TSTMS... MAINLY
FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO SWD TO SAN DIEGO. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..RACY.. 01/09/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.